AZ GOV: Brewer's Turnaround
If you would have asked AZ political observers late in '09 about Gov. Jan Brewer's (R) chances in the GOP primary and overall re-election prospects, you would have likely heard some bleak appraisals. For the once beleaguered gov. who trailed her competitors in the polls and had a testy relationship with the state legislature during her first year on office, the path to the nomination looked difficult. Fast forward to the present and Brewer is not only the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nomination in next Tuesday's primary, but she is also the odds on favorite to win the general election, should she advance.
Observers attribute Brewer's turnaround to two big political victories: The signing of SB 1070 in April, the state's controversial immigration law, and the passage of a temporary sales tax increase which Brewer pushed for leading up to the vote that was taken in May. While Brewer vouched for the tax increase, critics contend that she was not heavily involved in the crafting of SB 1070 in its early days, and simply got lucky that the bill came to her desk when it did. Meanwhile, some Brewer allies argue that she was gaining momentum even before signing SB 1070. Whatever the explanation, Brewer's resurrection is one of the most remarkable comebacks of the cycle.
Early this year, the GOP race was a three way contest, with Treas. Dean Martin (R) and NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen Buz Mills (R) challenging Brewer. Mills' bid was noteworthy because of his self-funding capability. He went up with early TV commercials and spent millions. But for Mills, running to Brewer's right became difficult after the signing of SB 1070. Brewer emerged the authoritative figure on immigration and border security in the race, and Mills was not able to mount an effective attack. He suspended his campaign in July and Martin soon followed, leaving the GOP race to Brewer and pol. sci./gov't Ph.D Matthew Jette (R), who Brewer is expected to easily defeat on Tuesday.
Over on the Dem side, AG Terry Goddard (D), once thought to be the favorite in a general election contest, is unopposed in the primary. Polling indicates Brewer leads Goddard in a head to head general election matchup by a comfortable margin. A Rocky Mountain poll conducted June 30-July 11 showed Brewer leading Goddard 45%-25%.
Looking ahead to the general election, Goddard's challenges are numerous, should he face Brewer. He has to overcome the tremendous gains in popularity Brewer has achieved and push back against the perception that she is stronger on immigration and border security. So far, her moves have trumped his actions: Goddard wrote a letter to Pres. Obama pressing him for more action on border security while Brewer sat down with Obama in DC for a direct meeting earlier this year. A fight over who would represent the state in a federal suit ultimately ended with the outcome Brewer wanted. Goddard is also in the difficult position of having to stand up to the leader of his party on border security without alienating himself from Dems.
Goddard and Brewer are closing the primary season with TV ads, both positive spots. But expect a potential Brewer-Goddard general election matchup to become increasingly heated. Look for Goddard to seek to shift the conversation to the economy in the general election, with a focus on Brewer's record on the issue. While the Brewer camp seems ready to have an economic debate, a race that remains focused on immigration and border security would no doubt play to Brewer's advantage.