Dem Poll: GOP Not Tied To Bush

Dems can dramatically alter the electoral playing field by tying GOP candidates to George W. Bush, but at the moment, the public sees a difference between the former president and his party in Congress.

Dems have tried repeatedly to tie the GOP to Bush's economic policies, which remain highly unpopular. But so far, that hasn't worked, according to officials at the Dem-leaning Third Way think tank.

"Just eighteen months after President Bush left office with the nation's economy in historic freefall, two-thirds of Americans now see congressional Republicans and their economic ideas as new and completely separate from those of the former president," the group wrote in a strategy memo sent to Dem leaders last month.

A majority, 53%, of Americans still blame Pres. Bush for the country's economic woes, while 26% pin the blame on Pres. Obama. Only 14% give Bush excellent or good ratings on handling the federal budget, and 28% say he helped the middle class, according to a survey from Benenson Strategy Group.

But just 25% of Americans say that the GOP's return to power in Congress will mean a return to those unpopular Bush policies. Fully 65% believe a GOP Congress would promote "a new economic agenda that is different from George W. Bush's policies."

A thin fraction of independent voters (22%) and Dems (32%) believe the GOP is set to return to Bush's agenda. That's great news for GOPers, who seem headed for an electoral romp this year, and bad news for Dems, who see tying the GOP to Bush's legacy as a surefire way of beating back the GOP onslaught.

That's not to say Dems are wrong. In fact, voters still prefer candidates who would choose Obama's agenda over Bush's, given the explicit choice between the 2 leaders. Voters prefer the direction Obama is taking the country by a 49%-34% margin.

The difference between Obama and Bush versus Obama and generic conservative ideas is a case Dems must make. Given the choice between a candidate who will stick to Obama's policies and a candidate who "will start from scratch with new ideas to shrink government, cut taxes and grow the economy," voters prefer a fresh start by a whopping 64%-30% margin -- while independent voters pick a new direction by a wider 75%-18% margin.

"The central argument is one of forward vs. backward," say Third Way officials Jim Kessler, Ryan McConaghy and Anne Kim. "Conservative views must not be defined as 'the ideology of no,' 'of Wall Street' or 'of special interests,' they must be defined as going back to 'the ideology of Bush.' Their ideas must not be 'bad ideas' or 'corporatist ideas,' they must be 'going back to Bush economic ideas.'"

That's worked before. In '82, the country was still mired in the Carter Recession, nearly 2 years after Jimmy Carter left office. Ronald Reagan "managed to maintain command and responsibility for the recovery and deflect blame for the recession. Opponents of his supply-side philosophy were branded as Carter liberals who supported the same failed ideas that brought America to its knees."

Dems must also convince voters their party is not the anti-business party, especially at a time when jobs and the economy are the most important issues on voters' minds. Just 48% of independent voters think Obama has an economic agenda at all, let alone one that's working.

And even as they make the case that GOPers want to go backwards, Dems have to convince voters they have a plan for the future. Voters are less interested in candidates who feel their pain than they are in candidates who have a positive vision.

"For much of the middle class, the root of their economic anxiety is not the fear that they will fall into poverty, but the fear that they will not achieve the economic trajectory that they imagined for themselves and their children," the authors write. "When progressives talk only about falling through the safety net, they miss much of the middle class."

Dems have a path to winning over voters by making the election a choice. But rather than a generic choice between their party and the GOP, the choice has to be the more specific Obama versus Bush for Dems to win. That's a tough needle to thread, and it's one Dems haven't achieved yet, the authors acknowledge.

"If Americans believe that there are two paths from which to choose -- a clear Obama path or the Bush path -- progressives will control the debate," Kessler, McConaghy and Kim write. "If they believe that the choice is between the Obama path and a new path, then the new path controls the debate."