Djou Claims Early Lead In HI
Just two-and-a-half months after winning his special election in HI-01, a new poll from Rep. Charles Djou's (R) camp shows he starts the general election in a rather strong position. In the survey, Djou led state Senate Pres. Colleen Hanabusa (D) 50-42%.
The poll, which surveyed 400 LVs and was conducted by the Tarrance Group from 7/26-27, had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.
In the May contest, Djou defeated Hanabusa 39-31%. But Dems believe that Djou's victory in the all-party special -- which also featured ex-Rep. Ed Case (D) -- was an anomaly, and that in a one-on-one matchup with Djou, Hanabusa will prevail in the strongly Dem CD. Case took a disappointing third in that contest, and later dropped plans for a general election primary run. That further emboldened Dems, as the specter of a costly primary would've dampened the party's fall chances against Djou.
In fact, Dems are so high on the seat that, in a recent memo, the DCCC wrote that Dems would pick up at least four GOP-held seats, and Djou's Dem-leaning CD was at the top of that list. But these survey results would cast a bit of a cloud over those predictions.
According to the poll, Djou still enjoys a bit of a honeymoon from his 5/18 victory. Almost half (45%) of respondents believe Djou deserves re-election, while just 31% say they want a new person. And Djou rates a 58% approval rating, while just 18% disapprove of his job performance. (A previous version of this story incorrectly identified the disapproval number).
Hanabusa is not without her advantages, and even GOPers expect the race to tighten. Pres. Obama took 70% in the district in '08, and while Case aired special election TV ads that implied Obama endorsed his bid, Obama did not personally involve himself in that race. Because this CD is Obama's hometown, he likely remains very popular here, and an endorsement of Hanabusa would likely go very far.
She also has the full backing of the state's Dem and labor machine, as well as that of EMILY's List. So while she trailed Djou by nearly $150K in cash in the bank at the end of July, she should be able to make that up rather quickly.
But it's exactly that "machine" that Djou -- and Case -- attacked in the special. GOPers say Djou is likely to continue to run as the outsider/independent in the general, giving him the opportunity to continue to bash Hanabusa as the insider.
Djou also believes he can pick up moderate supporters that Case attracted during his years in Congress and in the special.
But even as he crafts an outsider image, Djou will be forced to take tough votes. Dems have already attacked his votes against extending unemployment benefits. Djou, though, points to his support of ending "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" as a sign that he will split with his party.
This race is at the top of the DCCC's target list, and GOPers aren't deluding themselves into thinking this is an easy pickup. But according to his own survey, Djou has at least begun his tricky re-election bid on the right foot.
Rep. Djou even moreso than Scott Brown in MA, has to walk major tightrope in Hawaii. a state Obama won 70% of the vote in. Being a loyal Republican while still being independent in overwhelming Democratic district.Even assuming from GOP standpoint he wins in November..each reelection campaign will be major battle for him.. especially in 2012.
Pretty small sample and I'd like to know what the questions were. It's likely a push poll, with questions designed to elicit responses favorable to Djou. Djou is fortunate that the most of the Hawaii media hasn't bothered to highlight his votes against extending unemployment benefits.
The bottom line is Djou is bringing fiscal responsibility back to Washington.
He is reigning in the out of control government spending - something that will help everyone. Just look at Greece if you want to see what happens when government spending gets out of hand.
There's nothing implausible about this result.
President Bush won 47 percent of the vote in the 1st district in 2004, voters in Hawaii tend to be faithful to incumbents, the scars from the bitter special election fight have not all healed, and Djou is an almost perfect candidate for the district.
Ending the unemployment benefits is the mature things to do. If I had to subsidize my children for more than 99 weeks (yes, it's been that long) to keep them at home and unemployed, at what point shall I say to my children that they should forget about their pride and get a job no mater how small that job is? Let's assumed that my brother then said that he would give my children money to keep them afloat and help them looking for a "good job", shall I be the mature adult and said no to both my brother and my children that this is unacceptable?
OK, I understand that not everyone is still looking for a good job in this economy but any mature adult will agree that there is a limit for unemployment benefit. This had happened before and we have not extended unemployment benefits for so long then why this time then.
Furthermore, government needs to focus on foster an environment to allow creation of real jobs, i.e. long-term secure job creation from business not from temporary stimulus money or in this case unemployment benefits (another form of stimulus). To do that, government need to cut payroll tax, business tax and personal income tax to stimulate business hiring. Extending unemployment benefits or continue stimulus spending may sound good and get votes (to me, it is a form of buying votes) but in reality it is not the right thing to do.
charles is the only hope in Hawaii.
His reelection shows that there are two party systems in this great country.
Not a one party state like China.
Not surprised at all!
Charles Djou is the most qualified and experienced candidate to represent this diverse congressional district.
He works so hard in Washington DC and really listens to the people who live in Hawaii.
During this tough time, we need a bipartisan and pragmatic member in Congress who fights for jobs, businesses, as well as working families.
So I think that Hawaiian people should reelect Charles Djou to let him serve the great State successively.
Hey Charles I hope you haven't unpacked cause in November you're coming back to Hawaii.
Colleen Hanabusa is too radical!
This is probably one of the reasons why Ed Case, a moderate democrat, ran for the seat in the special election.
I would like to reelect Djou this time, though I'm a long-time supporter of Democratic Party.
Hanabusa? NO thanks!
I listened in on one of Mr. Djou's conference call question-and-answer sessions, and I attended one of his town hall meetings in Honolulu in July. He answers questions without hedging. He can explain his votes clearly and without resorting to political NON-answers. Not only is he an alternative to career politicians who feel ENTITLED to the seat they've held for years, but he is a viable solution to our Republic's identity crisis.
I saw a program about that on television last night. Thanks for covering it in greater depth