Richmond To Face Cao; LA 03 GOPers Move To Runoff

New Orleans-area Dems picked state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) to face freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA 02) in the fall, as Richmond avoided a runoff and throttled state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D) 60% to 21%.

Richmond -- who was endorsed by the DCCC -- prevailed despite a last-ditch effort to derail his candidacy by an outside org named Louisiana Truth PAC, a group founded by Dem donor/LaFonta supporter Stuart Smith.

According to the FEC, Louisiana Truth PAC contributed $64K toward a mail and TV ad campaign against Richmond. The PAC, which also purportedly aided other Dems in LA, began its anti-Richmond expenditures on 8/20, and recently began airing TV ads attacking him for participating in a bar fight and also for claiming "the state works for me." Another ad featured the author of a book on the 1927 New Orleans flood, who said flood protection is not Richmond's first priority.

Despite these attacks, Richmond had the support of the DCCC and much of the state's Dem hierarchy, including New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D). He also enjoyed a big financial edge over LaFonta -- he raised over $500K for the contest, while LaFonta raised just over $300K. In addition, Richmond had a 12-1 cash advantage over his challenger in the campaign's final weeks. So while LA Truth PAC provided LaFonta with a potential opening, it wasn't nearly enough to pull Richmond into a runoff.

Despite polling that shows Cao in decent shape heading into the general, even GOPers concede that the dynamics in this heavily Dem CD will make this a difficult hold for the party. Indeed, DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen repeatedly has put this seat at the top of the list of seats the party expects to win in Nov.

But with Richmond as the nominee, GOPers will attempt to use Richmond's past against him. In '08 Cao won mostly because of the ethics questions surrounding Rep. William Jefferson (D). Can that happen again?

Dems would like to make this a race against Cao's vote against the health care reform bill and his GOP ties. In a statement issued after Richmond's resounding victory, Van Hollen didn't mention Cao but he left little doubt about how Dems would attack the incumbent. "The families of this district deserve a representative that will work to create jobs and stand with President Obama on critical issues like health insurance reform and economic recovery," Van Hollen said. "We are confident that he will be elected in November because voters in this district want someone who will stand up and fight for our President's agenda."

But with Richmond's past providing a distraction to that debate, Cao certainly has a chance to keep this seat, and can't be counted out.

Meanwhile in LA 03, GOPers believe they have a great shot at picking up SEN nominee/Rep. Charlie Melancon's (D) open seat, but they'll have to wait another month before they get a nominee. Atty Jeff Landry (R) took a surprisingly strong first-place showing in Saturday's primary, but appears to have fallen just short of avoiding an Oct. runoff against '03 GOV candidate/ex-state House Speaker Hunt Downer (R). Landry took 49.6% to Downer's 36.1%, falling just 82 votes shy of the all-important 50% threshold.

Landry isn't the typical underdog, as he outraised and outspent Downer in the primary. But Downer -- who entered the contest late -- was considered by some to be the better candidate with the most experience. As we've seen this cycle, though, those aren't always the best credentials to boast in a GOP primary.

Landry likely gained traction in the last few weeks as he highlighted Downer's past Dem ties, and also questioned his pro-life credentials. Downer attempted to rebut those charges by airing a TV ad featuring his adopted daughter. But things didn't seem to come together for Downer in the final weeks, as, in addition to being on the defensive from Landry's attacks, he angered Tea Party groups for missing a forum.

Getting over the 50% hump in the runoff should not be too difficult a task for Landry. Tea Party orgs appeared to favor Landry and activist Kristian Magar (R) in the primary, and it's difficult imagining many of those voters moving toward Downer in the 10/2 runoff unless a major Landry flub occurs between now and then.

If the last few weeks of this late-developing primary are any indication, the race to the runoff could be particularly bloody. The runoff's late date -- just one month from the general -- will also cause a big strain on the eventual GOP nominee's finances, and will leave little time to build a warchest for the fall.

But despite the fact that atty Ravi Sangisetty (D) is positioned to take advantage of this -- he has raised more than any other candidate in the race -- GOPers should still enjoy an edge in this 61% McCain CD in the fall.

GOPers are not exactly taking this seat for granted, though. Early last week, the NRCC hit Sangisetty for not voting in several previous elections. So while GOPers are certainly the favorites to hold this heavily GOP seat, Sangisetty will put up a fight. Still, the eventual nominee will be favored in the fall.