Wednesday, August 11, 2010 7:06 AM

Josh Kraushaar: Against The Grain

Senate In Play, With Or Without Reid

Even though it's shaping up to be one of the worst midterm environments for Democrats in decades, Republicans still aren't being given much of a chance to retake control of the Senate. The bearishness is rooted in the reality that the GOP needs to win a net of 10 seats to retake the Senate -- a significant hurdle that has only been achieved three times in the last 60 years. (Perhaps the bar should be set at nine, with Sen. Joe Lieberman, I/D-Conn., a possibility to caucus with Republicans if they're within striking distance of a majority.)

But the reality on the ground is that nearly all of the competitive races are trending the Republicans' way, and the Republicans have put enough seats in play to have a shot at maximum impact if they run the table. The Cook Political Report now lists 11 Democratic-held Senate seats as leaning Republican or pure toss-ups. Republicans are defending seven seats in competitive races, but the main GOP-held seats at risk are Florida (where Gov. Charlie Crist could win as an Independent and become a nominal Democratic vote) and, to a lesser extent, Kentucky and Missouri. In wave elections, toss-up seats traditionally break one way, in the direction of the party with momentum.

Several races not on our radar screen several months ago have turned into political barn burners. Sen. Russell Feingold, D-Wis., whose maverick tendencies insulated him from political pressures for much of his career, has lately been up with a furious ad blitz trying to discredit his wealthy Republican challenger, Ron Johnson. Johnson, a political unknown before this year, has surged in polls thanks to his outsider background (he's a plastics manufacturer) and anti-Washington rhetoric (he received early support from Wisconsin Tea Party activists). Feingold has a fundraising advantage with $4.3 million in the bank, but Johnson has shown he's an able fundraiser who can use his personal fortune to close the financial gap.

Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., has been running just as intently, spending nearly half of her $7 million war chest in the last month to prepare for a tough matchup against Dino Rossi, who twice came close to winning the governor's mansion in a solidly Democratic state. In a sign of Murray's vulnerability and the race's importance in the overall Senate picture, President Obama is heading to Seattle to fundraise and campaign for Murray later this month.

Rossi outraised Murray by a 2-to-1 margin in July, though he still lags in overall cash on hand. The state's all-party primary on Aug. 17 will give a real sense of Murray's vulnerability; if she falls short of the 50 percent mark, it's a sign she's in serious trouble for November.

And California could well be an expensive firewall for Democrats, given recent buzz that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will spend resources in California to protect Sen. Barbara Boxer, who is running slightly ahead of former HP executive Carly Fiorina in public polling but sports mediocre approval ratings.

Given the national environment in their favor, Republicans are optimistic about their chances in Democratic-held seats where no elected incumbent is running -- in the president's home state of Illinois, as well as Indiana, Pennsylvania and Colorado -- and are confident about defeating Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., in a solidly conservative state that has always viewed the president's agenda unfavorably. A just-released survey conducted by GOP pollster Public Opinion Strategies shows the Republican candidates with a 7-point advantage, 47 percent to 40 percent, in the eight toss-up Senate seats currently held by Democrats.

Despite the encouraging news for Republicans, there's one exception to the trend: Nevada. As the race currently stands, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid looks in credible shape to win another term in office, an accomplishment that was near-unthinkable at the beginning of the year. Sharron Angle, the Tea Party favorite who surged to the Republican nomination without much scrutiny, has proven a deeply flawed candidate. Her unstinting fiscal conservatism and hostility to entitlements would play well in some states but is an odd fit in Nevada, a state dependent on deal-making, whether it's with the gaming industry in Las Vegas or with the growing Hispanic population that makes up nearly one-fifth of the state's electorate. Her pleading to Fox News last week that the press be her "friend" was, at best, hopelessly naïve, and at worst, the sign of a candidate who simply isn't ready for prime time -- or the Senate.

If she were running for a House seat, she might be able to squeak by without the scrutiny. But in a race that's drawing national attention, Angle has come close to disqualifying herself in the eyes of many Nevada voters. The most recent poll, conducted last week by Reuters/Ipsos, showed Angle trailing Reid among likely voters 48 percent to 44 percent but down by 16 points among the larger pool of registered voters. While the likely voter model is more predictive of the November electorate, Angle's comments expressing skepticism of church-state separation and willingness to revisit the 14th Amendment could well convince some independent voters to hold their noses and vote for Reid.

Reid still sports lousy approval numbers of his own (51 percent unfavorable in the July Mason-Dixon poll), which should keep this race competitive until November. But in a year when Republicans should be in strong shape to unseat the driving political force behind the president's unpopular agenda, they instead are running from behind.

Democrats are still favored to hold on to their majority, even though the 18-seat margin will be diminished come November. But the odds that Republicans could run the table, which frequently occurs when voter discontent is so high, cannot be dismissed. Keep in mind that, since 1930, each of the seven times the House has flipped, the Senate has gone with it. In 2006, when Democrats retook control of both chambers, it looked very possible that Republicans could lose control of the House several months out, but the prospect of a Senate takeover developed only much later.

This year, Democratic control of the House is looking increasingly tenuous, with Republicans needing a net gain of 39 seats to win back the majority. Democratic control of the Senate looks to be in better shape, but that conventional wisdom could quickly change as the campaigns start heading into full gear after the Labor Day recess. And if history repeats itself, don't be surprised if Republicans are able to ride their narrow path to a majority -- even if Reid returns, in the minority.