Starting Lineup: Dems In Deep Trouble

Good Thursday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. What Hotline On Call is watching this morning: Obama's struggles in PA, lots of worrisome number for Midwestern House Democrats, Trumka rips Palin, and Democrats keep up the drumbeat against David Rivera.

Obama's PA Struggles: A new Franklin & Marshall poll out this morning shows Pres. Obama's numbers in Pennsylvania continuing to slide into dangerous territory. The survey finds that 35% of respondents -- a new high -- think Obama is doing a "poor" job as president. Only nine percent say Obama is doing an "excellent" job.

If Obama's numbers stay this low, Dems will be in big trouble in the Keystone State this fall. And the state is pivotal for Dem hopes in both the House and Senate. It's hard to see how Rep. Joe Sestak (D) wins his Senate match up against ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) if Obama remains so unpopular. On the House side, there are - count 'em - eight Democratic-held seats that Republicans are aggressively contesting. Democrats think they have a shot at defeating Rep. Charlie Dent (D, but it's hard to see how they are successful if the Obama brand is in the toilet.

Midwest Dems Under Siege: The conservative American Action Forum is out with a slate of Midwest polls today, and the news isn't too good for Dems. The group surveyed voters in IA 03, IN 02, MI 07, MO 03, OH 01, OH 15, OH 16, and WI 08. Some key findings: When the individual polls are taken together, the 54% of respondents say they want a new member of Congress, while only 35% said their current Congressman deserves re-election. Also troubling: Pres. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 49% of voters in these districts and only 44% view him favorably.

Keep in mind this is a Republican-sponsored poll, but one consistent with public polling across the country. Democrats privately pushed back against the group's polling last week, questioning the polls methodology and saying they were too focused on broad, national issues and not enough on local ones.

We can break down the polls into three categories: Looks good for GOPers, looks good for Dems and a toss up (based on the numbers). Reps. Leonard Boswell (D-IA), Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH), John Boccieri (D-OH), Mark Schauer (D-MI) and Steve Kagen (D-WI) look to be in deep trouble, based on the polling. But Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO 03) is in credible shape, while Ohio Reps. Steve Driehaus and Betty Sutton in toss-up territory.

The big surprise in this group is WI 08, where Kagen trails Reid Ribble (R) by 10%. Kagen hasn't been on many target lists this year, and the Republican primary isn't until next month.

Dems may take solace in OH 01, however, where Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) trails ex-Rep. Steve Chabot by only two percent. Driehaus has been considered a goner by many analysts

Check out the head to head breakdowns of the polls at the end of the Starting Lineup.http://bit.ly/9NsBpP

Trumka: AFL-CIO Pres. Richard Trumka is going to lay into former AK Gov. Sarah Palin today, and he's going to do it on her home turf in Alaska. "She used to have a job, your governor. You knew her, or thought you did. I know I thought I did," Trumka will say at the AFL-CIO convention in Anchorage. "She seemed like a decent person, an outdoors woman. Her husband's a steelworker. She seemed to take some OK stands for working families.

"And then things got weird. After she tied herself to John McCain and they lost, she blew off Alaska. I guess she figured she'd trade up, shoot for a national stage. Alaska was too far from the FOX TV spotlight."

And Trumka goes on: "The Mama Grizzlies, Sarah Palin says, just sense when something's not right. Well. I wonder if those Mama Grizzlies can sense something's just not right with her."

House Dems: Hotline On Call wrote on Wednesday that a clear strategy is emerging from House Dem incumbents: Go negative early. Dems are keeping up that strategy today, as the Florida Democratic Party launches TheRealRivera.com, a site dedicated to flawed GOP candidate David Rivera. Dems have been relentless in going after Rivera, who faces '08 Dem nominee Joe Garcia in FL 25. Some Dems view this as a definite pick up opportunity, which means the GOP will have to take another Dem held seat in order to inch closer to a majority. http://bit.ly/dolHqT, http://bit.ly/b6hgfJ

Must Reads: Hotline Editor in Chief Reid Wilson has two stories you don't want to miss. First, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), who appears to have lost the GOP nomination in her re-election bid on Tuesday to Joe Miller, held an ad that evoked the late Sen. and AK icon Ted Stevens (R). In his column today, And in his column today, Wilson argues why Dems won't lose the House this fall. http://bit.ly/amAvfr, http://bit.ly/9qaA9j

What else are you watching today? The comments section awaits below. Also be sure to check out those head to head numbers from the American Action Forum polls after the jump.

Head to head numbers from the American Action Forum polls:
Looks good for GOP :
IA 03
Rep. Leonard Boswell (D): 41%
Brad Zaun (R): 51%

MI 07
Rep. Mark Schauer (D): 40%
Tim Walberg (R): 50%

OH15
Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 44%
Steve Stivers (R): 49%

OH 16
Rep. John Boccieri (D): 35%
Jim Renacci (R): 49%

WI 08
Rep. Steve Kagen (D): 39%
Reid Ribble (R): 49%

Dem in control:

MO 03
Rep. Russ Carnahan (D): 54%
Ed Martin (R): 38%

Tight Race:
OH 01:
Rep. Steve Driehaus (D): 45%
ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (R): 47%

OH 13:
Rep. Betty Sutton (D): 43%
Tom Ganley (R): 41%