Tempest Over A Tea Party

Rand Paul is a flawed nominee in Kentucky, with his libertarian philosophy a tougher sell in a state where many socially conservative voters rely on government for services and aid. But the notion that voters in a coal-producing state covering much of Appalachia will turn against the national tide and elect a Democrat this year is still highly unlikely. Democrat Jack Conway would have been a solid candidate to take on, say, Sen. Mitch McConnell in 2008, but he faces a severe headwind in a state where the national party leadership is viewed as unfavorably as anywhere in the country.

In Wisconsin, the party favorite to run against Sen. Russell Feingold (D) was Tommy Thompson, a popular governor in the '80s and '90s whose political career seemed to be over after a quixotic race for the presidency. Thompson had been spending much of his post-elective career as a lobbyist, hardly a winning resume in this anti-establishment environment. Businessman Ron Johnson, a political unknown and Tea Party favorite, won the Republican nomination and, to the surprise of many, surged into a statistical dead heat with Feingold.

And in Colorado, Republicans nominated Buck, the district attorney in Weld County who doubled as the Tea Party favorite. Democrats have compared him to Angle and Paul, citing his past criticism of Social Security and remarks where he entertained repealing the 17th Amendment. But Buck, a Princeton-educated lawyer with law enforcement credentials, proved his political bona fides by defeating the National Republican Senatorial Committee's choice, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. Unlike Angle, he conducted numerous interviews after the primary and came across favorably, no different than other conservative candidates. And elements of Buck's record that once looked like vulnerabilities, such as his hard-line record on illegal immigration as DA, now seem in tune with this bellwether state's electorate.

Post-primary polls show him with a lead over Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in a state where President Obama's popularity is fading. Bennet notably distanced himself from Obama after winning his contested primary -- even though he publicly courted Obama's support during the nomination process. The race is much more likely to be a referendum on the administration's policies than on Buck's past offhand comments.

Indeed, conventional wisdom led national Republicans to initially dismiss one of their brightest Senate recruits -- Florida's Marco Rubio -- in favor of a governor with sinking popularity ratings who now sounds eager to caucus with the Democrats if elected as an independent. Even before he entered the race, Rubio had clear potential as a young, Hispanic officeholder who articulated conservative principles effectively. But out of the conventional wisdom that the more moderate candidate with a proven track record wins, Republican leaders stuck with Charlie Crist and backed him until he left the party.

In the House, Republicans have largely nominated their most electable candidates in contested primaries, picking state Sen. Robert Hurt against a crowded field of Tea Party challengers in Virginia and Harold Johnson over an unstable but well-funded challenger in North Carolina. In Tennessee, Stephen Fincher, a farmer and gospel singer lauded by the National Republican Congressional Committee because of his political inexperience, handily won his party's nomination this month despite being outspent in the primary by two well-financed challengers and their allies.

Many GOP nominees have close associations with the Tea Party movement, but there's no sign that's costing them support. Tom Ganley, running on a Tea Party message in the working-class, Democratic confines of Akron, Ohio, has spent millions of his own money and made his race against Rep. Betty Sutton (D) highly competitive. Randy Hultgren, a conservative Illinois state senator, defeated the son of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert in the primary and looks to be in solid position against Rep. Bill Foster (D).

Indeed, it's hard to find many examples of where Republicans have thrown away winnable opportunities by nominating extremists. House Race Hotline Editor Tim Sahd, who tracks all the races on a daily basis, can only point to a few Democrats -- including Reps. Melissa Bean (Ill.), Gerry Connolly (Va.) and John Yarmuth (Ky.) -- who have benefited from weaker Republicans emerging in the primaries.

As Republican pollster Whit Ayres put it in the New York Times last Saturday, "the forces that produced those outsider candidates are precisely the forces that have placed Democrats in peril this election cycle." Polls consistently show the Tea Party viewed more favorably than either of the two major parties and a historically low percentage of voters (26 percent in the latest ABC/Washington Post poll) planning to re-elect their own member of Congress.

This is an electorate that views Washington and the policies emanating from Capitol Hill as unfavorably as any in recent memory. It's an environment that will be favorable to authentic outsiders running against the administration's policies, even those with a penchant for Tea.