The Immigration Trap
Voters may be focused on the economy, but members of Congress can't seem to help themselves when a new wedge issue comes along. Republicans are seizing, once again, on illegal immigration in the hopes of ginning up an already excited base. But if they aren't careful, the long-term consequences of threatening a re-examination of birthright citizenship will far outweigh the short-term benefits.
So far, only Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and James Inhofe, R-Okla., have said they want to alter the 14th Amendment itself. Graham has decried birthright citizenship with language that evokes the harshest rhetoric Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., used during debates over immigration in 2005.
Birthright "to me cheapens American citizenship. That's not the way I would like it to be awarded. And you've got the other problem, where thousands of people are coming across the Arizona/Texas border for the express purpose of having a child in an American hospital so that child will become an American citizen, and they broke the law to get there," Graham said Tuesday on Fox News.
Other GOP leaders have been more circumspect. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., joined Arizona Sens. John McCain and Jon Kyl in calling for hearings, but none of the three have explicitly said they oppose the 14th Amendment.
The idea is little more than a clever way to allow Republicans to talk to their base without actually promising any movement on the issue. "Birthright citizenship" is the newest catchphrase that gets illegal immigration opponents riled up, and Republicans can safely talk about the issue without fear of being forced to act.
What they should fear is the wrath of Hispanic voters. The largest minority population in the country, Hispanics are also the fastest-growing. Polls show 4 in 5 Hispanic voters favor birthright citizenship, while Republicans largely oppose the idea. And Hispanics are quickly turning on the GOP for the party's perceived anti-immigrant rhetoric.
After comprehensive immigration reform efforts broke down during George W. Bush's second term, Hispanics began what could be an inexorable slide toward a permanent, and prominent, place in the Democratic coalition. Bush won 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004; fewer than 1 in 3 Hispanics voted for McCain in 2008. Around the country, downballot Republicans performed even worse.
Some Republican strategists have long warned that allowing Democrats to win the Hispanic vote in the same, or close to the same, ratios they win African-American voters is an untenable concession. Whit Ayres, the Republican pollster, says losing Hispanic voters permanently will forever alter the Electoral College math. Republicans won't be thinking up ways to win back Florida, he has said; rather, they'll be dreaming up ways not to lose Texas. Already, California and New York are considered traditionally blue states. Losing the four largest states in the union makes the path to 270 electoral votes nearly impossible.
Democrats will welcome the debate over birthright citizenship as much as Republicans. Not only will it help them in the long term, it could take some voters' minds off an economy that isn't rebounding fast enough to impress the electorate. What's more, it excites the Democratic base, and Hispanic voters, as much as it does the Republican faithful.
Indeed, it was Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid who first brought up the idea that Congress might address comprehensive immigration reform before leaving for the August recess. Reid faces a daunting re-election bid in heavily Hispanic Nevada, and an excited Democratic electorate (plus a healthy dose of gaffe-prone rival Sharron Angle) is key to his hopes of survival.
It's worth pointing out that taking a hard conservative line can help Graham's re-election chances, too. Graham has a worse relationship with his party's conservative base than even McCain. Earlier this week, he was censured by a group of South Carolina Tea Partiers; it was not the first time a group of conservative activists had reprimanded him. Graham has to mend fences before he faces his conservative electorate in 2014, much as McCain has had to change some policy positions in advance of his own primary this month.
The Senate will leave town this week without having taken action on immigration reform. But if Republicans continue to harp on the 14th Amendment, whether for Graham's sake or for anyone who wants to rile up their base this year, the issue could further alienate voters the party needs over the long term.
"This is all about, now, the Democrats and the president and Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi trying to sew up the Hispanic vote in 2012 and beyond. Otherwise, they would be taking far more vigorous action to get the border secured," McCain said Tuesday on Fox News.
He's mostly right. But if Democrats do sew up the Hispanic vote in the long term, his party will own much more of the blame for its suffering.
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