The NRCC's Moneyball Strategy
It appears the NRCC has Michael Lewis' "Moneyball" in its library. The book - a must-read for sports fans - discusses how the Oakland Athletics and general manager Billy Beane skillfully utilized limited funds to yield maximum results from their team.
The NRCC is using a similar strategy for their television ad buys this year. Politico reported this morning that the committee is planning $22 million in ad buys running up to the election. The 40 41 districts illustrate that the GOP is on offense; 39 40 of the seats are currently held by Democrats. 39, it should be noted, also represents the number of seats the GOP needs to win to take back the House this year.
Looking more deeply into those districts, it's clear that the NRCC is looking to stretch their dollars. That's important to them because they are at a significant cash on hand disadvantage to their Democratic counterparts. The DCCC has $34M in their bank account - double the NRCC's $17M.
Several of the top targets for the NRCC lie in inexpensive media markets and are districts that voted for John McCain in 2008. A few examples: Reps. Bobby Bright (D) in AL-2, Allen Boyd in FL-2, Harry Teague in NM-2, Travis Childers in MS-1 and Jim Marshall in GA-8. The Dakotas - Reps. Earl Pomeroy in ND-AL and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in SD-AL - are also cheap places to air ads and both are on the NRCC's list.
In Ben Chandler's (D) in KY-6, one senior GOP operative noted that they can stay up on the air there for $75,000 per week - a relatively low figure. "[GOP nominee] Andy Barr can go up for six weeks on TV without a sweat," said the operative.
Other open seats are in inexpensive media markets. These include the seat of retiring Reps. Bart Stupak (D) in MI-1 and Dennis Moore's in KS-3. Alan Mollohan's WV-1, which is open since Mollohan lost the Democratic primary, is also a target in a cheap media market.
This strategy could prove particularly effective because the Dems have to play in more expensive markets to defend incumbents. The DCCC has reserved $49M worth of air time for 60 districts, 54 of which are currently held by Dems. To defend PA-7, the seat vacated by Rep. Joe Sestak, Dems have to venture into the Philadelphia media market. To hold on to IL-10, Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) former seat, they have to buy in the Chicago market. Similarly, Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy's OH-15 lies in the Columbus market.
Having more money - as the Dems do - is always better than having less. But if you look at how much the NRCC is planning to spend per race compared to the DCCC, they are approaching parity. Divide the DCCC's $49M by the 60 CDs in which it plans to air ads and you get $816K per district. Divide the NRCC's planned $22M by the 40 CDs, and you get $550K per district. That, when the cost of the media markets is taken into account, could help level the playing field.
See Also: The Hotline's breakdown of where the NRCC is planning to spend money compared to where the DCCC is spending money.
UPDATE: Hotline On Call has learned that the NRCC is also planning ads in NJ-3 for GOPer Jon Runyan.
WHO IS THE REPUBLICAN (1) YOU ARE RUNNING ADS AGAINST ?