House Republicans are measuring the drapes in preparation for big gains in the lower chamber, convinced that Minority Leader John Boehner is going to become the next Speaker of the House. On a macro level, that wouldn't be a bad guess -- Democrats are saddled with bad polls and unpopular leaders, and the national mood wants a change from the status quo.
But the Democratic apocalypse isn't guaranteed just yet. In fact, senior Democratic strategists say they're not only likely to keep the House, but they believe the GOP won't come close to gaining the 39 seats they need to take over.
That's not to say Republicans have no chance of taking back the House. Indeed, for every argument Democrats make about their strengths, Republicans have a counterargument. But Democrats have a compelling case. Here are the four reasons Democrats shouldn't be counted out of the majority, and Republicans shouldn't start counting their chickens, quite yet:
• Money: On both a macro level and a micro level, Republicans are seriously behind in the money chase. Most candidates enrolled in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline program for endangered incumbents have huge cash leads over their rivals, and the DCCC has nearly twice as much on hand as the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Plenty of newly elected Democrats won in 2006 and 2008 while being outspent, but they weren't outspent by much. Only Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., won after being outspent by more than a 3-1 ratio. Republican challengers will close the gap over the next few months, but they have a long way to go.
On Tuesday, Boehner said his goal was to run a $50 million independent expenditure program through the NRCC. With $22 million on hand as of Aug. 1, Republicans are nowhere near reaching that goal. The DCCC, on the other hand, has already reserved airtime worth $49 million -- and that's only the first wave.
• Turnout: Beyond advertising, money pays for turnout operations, another area in which Democrats have a clear advantage. The Democratic National Committee has pledged $30 million in cash and services to turn out the estimated 15 million voters who cast their first ballots for President Obama in 2008, and the DCCC has put an average of five field staffers on the ground in 75 districts.
The turnout operation is where the Republican National Committee's money woes come into play. Publicly, Republican strategists voice optimism in their side's ability to get out the vote. Privately, party strategists fret that while they may be able to mount a last-minute push, in the age of absentee ballots and early voting that may not be enough in key districts. By the time the RNC's 72-hour program engages, Democrats will have banked thousands of votes per district.
Then again, Republicans have a silver lining in the form of well-funded candidates at the top of the ticket. In Ohio, for example, Senate candidate Rob Portman (R) is likely to build his own turnout operation, one that will benefit GOP House candidates. The same can be said for the self-funding Meg Whitman, running for governor in California; Senate candidates Marco Rubio in Florida and Mark Kirk in Illinois; and others. Their largesse could help cash-strapped candidates lower on the ballot.
• Opposition Research: Call it the Harry Reid model: When you're not popular, your only hope of winning election is to make your opponent even less popular. Democrats have engaged in what they characterize as an unprecedented research campaign, digging up dirt on GOP candidates in hopes of driving their negative numbers through the roof.
Here, too, is where money comes in. Republicans have recruited a number of candidates who have never sought office and are largely undefined. If Democrats spend the money early to portray Republicans as unacceptable alternatives, and to frame races as contests they can control, they will be using their monetary advantages to the fullest.
But Republicans have their own opposition research, and rumors are perpetually flying about one member or another. What's more, Republicans can point to health care legislation, cap-and-trade, the stimulus package and other key votes Democratic incumbents have taken, all of which poll horribly with independent voters. Those votes are powerful bits of opposition research on their own.
• Modeling: Hours after the polls closed in a special election in Pennsylvania's 12th District earlier this year, Boehner was still predicting that businessman Tim Burns (R) would beat former congressional aide Mark Critz (D). Republicans' polling showed Burns would win. Their polling was wrong, and Critz is now a congressman.
Democrats who kept a close eye on the Pennsylvania polls detected the same excitement gap that Republicans saw -- Republican voters were much more enthusiastic than their Democratic counterparts. But Democratic polls also saw their voters come home in the race's waning days, and adjusted their targets accordingly. Republicans did not, resulting in a blown call and a self-deprecating examination of the party's polling techniques.
National Republicans maintain that the midterms won't be like the Pennsylvania special election, held in a district where few voters characterize themselves as independents. Indeed, Democrats have lost independent voters' confidence, and nationally, those voters are expected to break more toward the GOP. But models matter, and right now Democrats' models are inspiring more confidence than Republicans'.
For every possible reason Democrats have to be confident this year, Republicans have an equally valid point as to why they're in a stronger position. But both parties agree that expectations are too high, and that the Republican takeover of Congress is far from a done deal.
Republicans still have a strong chance to gain an important toehold in the legislative branch. But they should not invest in new drapes just yet; dislodging a majority is harder than it seems, and Democrats are using every lever of power at their disposal to hold on.
delusional ... nice pipe dream though.
Just click your heals 3xs and you can return to Kansas.
It's rather a cute deflection to say that this is what "senior Democratic strategists" think. Why don't you step away from the Kool Aid cooler and tell us what *you* think, Mr. Wilson?
PLEASE NOTE: Reid is a "former" Democrat employee.
He is simply rewriting what he was told/advised/asked to write.
This story is nothing more than slightly rewritten DCCC memo.
This is just about the lamest analysis I have heard.
You missed one big issue - the fact that the public doesnt want the dems in there anymore.
www.libertyjunkie.com - best political blogs
13.5 Trillion Deficit, 500,000 new unemployed every week. Economy on it's lips. Healthcare plan no one wants, Cap and Trade and Taxes galore that no one wants. You bet this election will bring out voters, and don't assume all democrats approve of this economy.
After all, "It's the economy Stupid"
You fail to mention the democrats cannot win by merit or honesty. Lies, deceit, smears and most of all voter/election fraud. Like your sad attempt at being a reporter. Hack is more like it.
You are smoking the hopium dude. flash back 2006 Republicans had the cash advantage. Republicans had access to President Bush's turn out operation that got GOP voters out in record numbers in the 2004 presidential election. furthermore, 50 plus Democrats are sitting in conservative districts that Mcain carried in 2008. The economy is tanking and the "Recovery Summer" looks more like the "Donkey double dip" recession. Americans have observed the results of what socialist control of the levers of power can accomplish and they are less than impressed.
Do you like to gamble, Reid? Gamble money, on the outcome of political contests?
I dare you to run this blog again after November 2!!!
You're as stupid as the loser we have in the White House. So far out of touch with the American people it isn't even funny.
Talking points from the DNC. Usually I am wary of reading any of his analysis, and today I slipped up and read this drivel. What a wasted few moments.
LOL- who says Dems have no sense of humor?
Ehh...this column is a joke, right?
The tactics by the republican/tea party since Obama took office have basically reduced it to a segmented party with little broad based appeal. Obama and the Dems will get 80% of the Latino vote, 95% of the African American vote, 50% of the women vote, 80% of the youth vote, 90% of the gay vote. When you add the lower percentages from elderly and then white, it points to a winning election.
delusional spin of a partisan hack. will print out and use to clean up after my dog's morning walk...
Um, Dude, I think you might want to reexamine the turnout numbers so far. In CO, the GOP Seante LOSER got more votes than Bennet and in FL, well, the numbers are looking even bigger. Better reload there, Spanky.
Let's not underestimate the Dems. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised after the election that bitterly disappointed. Don't count our Rep chickens before they hatch, or we might not have any. Give of your time, treasure and talent to get the good guys into office. Then hold them accountable and fire them if they don't do the right things.
Agree with teh points, I would add 1 more that makes this a pipe dream
You have a large number of new peolple from the tea party entering politics. Last year in NY-23 they lost due to all the reasons in this article. However they learned. They applied the lessons to MA. Scott Brown won. The Dems got focused in PA-12. They won. It took the entire weight of the national party and a gerrymandered district to win.
MO had a ballot initiative - Tea Party won convincingly.
The newbies are learning all the tricks and with each cycle and election they are getting better and learning faster. Union Dem socialist thugs - having never competed are losing - see MI01.
Sorry but the Tea Party 2.0 is much more lethal to Dems than the NY-23 and PA 12 teams -
BTW - we're training for 2012 and 2014 ;)
WOW!......the only thing missing here is some Bush bashing. Your almost there Reid....sit by your phone, the New York times will be calling any day now.
Look, Reid Wilson is either right or he's wrong. Personally, I think he's wrong, but at least he's backing up his argument with substantive facts or reasonable speculation, rather than unsubstantiated mudslinging, while also conceeding the weakness of the argument. He's actually arguing like a (gasp) adult, which you rarely see in the MSM these days.
media articles such as this are just making independents move more to the right--Nov will be a nightmare for Dems
This is a rather lame effort by Mr. Wilson. Take the issue of turnout.
GOTV efforts only make a difference on the margins and in either a favorable or neutral political climate. The best way to GOTV is to have the macro factors in your favor.
Granted that the GOP has to work hard, out hustle the Dems, and actually get elected in dozens of races, but the current environment is toxic for the Democrat party.
The nation is in no mood to elect Republicans, we clearly remember it was the Republicans that created our current economic problems and their 2 year record of saying "NO" to anything that would help.
Throw in the deep damage the Tea Party is doing to Republicans and it's clear Democrats will do well in this cycle.
Turnout: "Beyond advertising, money pays for turnout operations" Mr. Wilson states and claims the Democrats have an advantage here.
Just for example turnout in a couple of primaries
Colorado Senate Race
Democratic votes cast 338537 Republican votes 406664
Florida Governor
Dems 836696
Rep 1282957
I find it hard to believe the Dems can keep the House after this fall's election. Remember 1994? The Clinton administration was no where near as leftward as the current bunch residing at the WH. Not only would I not be surprised to see Pelosi vacated from the speakership, I expect Reid to be unseated as the Senate majority leader.
Wilson's proposition would yeild a 2 to 1 payout in offshore betting markets if he cared to put his money where is his mouth is. The House has been long gone for the Democrats since the spring votes on healthcare. Senate control is where the real action is.
Reid, when you keep insisting "Everybody else in the world is wrong except for me" it's probably time for you to schedule admittance to the rubber room.
I printed this out and will come back the morning after to rub your delusional face in your own BS. What a joke.
My this is a hostile crowd. While I agree that this article is a little propogandistic wishful thinking, I also agree that it's a little early for the GOP to start measuring for drapes. But there is one key element on their side. Forget the health care plan (despite GOP screaming, there are actually LOTS of Americans who are happy about it) and the tax cut expiration potential, the GOP has history on their side. Mid-term elections are notoriously hostile to the White House, especially when the economy sux. So, between the horrible economy and historical precedence, the GOP would have to screw this up pretty badly to remain in the minority.
bd says: "Mid-term elections are notoriously hostile to the White House, especially when the economy sux. So, between the horrible economy and historical precedence, the GOP would have to screw this up pretty badly to remain in the minority." Love the spin. You read your talking points with discipline. This impending carnage has to be about something other than the Democrats' looney, un-American ideology elst your dreams of a socialist state may be vaporizing.
How many of these same advantages did Dems have in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts?
I voted only for Democratic candidates the past three election cycles but I'm voting a straight Republican ticket this fall. Nothing the Dems can spin, say, etc. will change my mind. I have been completely turned off by the arrogance and lack of focus on the economy by the congressional Dems under Pelosi. Obama has been MIA and a total disappointment to me.
great fairy tale!
The only thing missing was "And Nancy and Harry lived happily ever after"
How stupid do they think the people are? This election has nothing to do with what Republicans will or won't do if they capture the House. With Obama as President they can't do anything as bad as what the Democrats are saying they will do. He will veto anything rogue. So what is this election all about? Stopping the Democrats. We want to put an end to runaway government and spending. That can’t happen by voting for the Democrats. If you don't like what's happening, and not even the liberals are happy at this point, the only thing to do is vote for gridlock, and therefore, for the Republicans whether you like them or not. It is that simple no matter how the politicians try to spin it.
What have you been smoking?? Are you even on this planet and in touch with the rest of America??
This is a policy driven election.....quality of candidates is not what is driving the campaign. Your strategy is flawed terribly.
friscodb: I'm not going to lower myself into the ideological muck that has been running rampant in America. The historical facts speak for themselves. America is a moderate country. The success the GOP will undoubtedly enjoy this fall is not the product of some great conservative awakening. It's simply a result of Americans wanting to fix the economy and willing to try anything (or anyone) to do it. That's why the same Americans who will vote in Nov threw the GOP out of office a scant few years ago. Rest assured that if the economy is improved by the '12 election, the man who so many conservatives have already written off as a 1-term president will coast to a second term. At the end of the day, Americans don't vote on mosques in NYC. It really is the economy.
The Dems haven't even hit the air yet. You will see the ads that show how:
* Republicans want to hand your Social Security over to Wall Street (did I mention how seniors are a reliable voting bloc in a midterm election?)
* Republicans voted against the unemployment benefits (did I mention how the unemployed will have time to volunteer on campaigns and vote on Election Day?)
* Republicans have tried to take away your healthcare coverage.
Once again, the wingnuts believe that the rest of the country watches the propaganda on Fox News and believes what they do. Newsflash - they don't. The only major GOP gains will be in districts that should have been Republican anyway, particularly in the South.
I laughed out loud when I read this headline on RCP, so I just had to take a look. Boy, all that pot smoking is making Dems even number and dumber than i thought they were! Funny piece.
I think the writer and Dems are on drugs. Some GOP strategists are on drugs too. In the end, GOP will take 40-50 seats, and seven to eight seats in the Senate. Thus the House flipping to the GOP by a very narrow margin. California, Washington and Illinois are ground zero for the control of Senate while Wisconsin and Nevada are bellweathers!
Yeah, if you said the Republicans will not take over the Senate I would have given you and your article more credit, but the House is long gone. There is a 45% chance that the Republicans will take over an additional 50 seats. Just getting 39 seats is probably in the 69%-74% realm of possibility. I would say they are likely to pick up 42-43 seats. Now, in the Senate, the best case scenario for the Dems is that they lose only 6 seats. I believe the most the Dems will pick up is 9 (this includes Charlie Christ of Florida, who is running as an Independent). That leaves them one shy of the majority.
Someone call Nate Silver, I think we've found the latest winner of statements which are jargony, delusional, or just plain ******* wrong.
Is what he mentions possible? Sure. Is what he mentions likely? No. To cite a special election with a thousand variables (a democrat who based his campaign on opposition to the presidents, a special election with still relatively light turnout) as an election model for Democrats to follow, not likely.
What we see in this article is the same Hail Mary that Republicans conducted in 2006, that things really weren't as bad as they look.
News flash: the numbers really are that bad, and it is not likely they will improve. The GOP might not take the house (there's imo a 60-70% chance they will right now.) Yet to honestly think they won't come close, someone is just drinking the kool-aid.
Most Democrat bigwigs will start withdrawing from the House funding, and shifting their resources to where they are most needed: minimizing losses in the Senate.
YOU ARE LOOKING AT A HISTORICAL MID
TERM LANDSLIDE. YOU'RE VIEWPOINT IS THE SENTIMENT OF DEMOCRATS WHISTLING PAST THE POLITICAL
GRAVEYARD. ON NOVEMBER 3 THE WHITE HOUSE WILL
BE A DEMOCRATIC ISLAND SURROUNDED BY A
REPUBLICAN OCEAN. THE DEMOCRATS WILL STRUGGLE
TO ELECT 200 HOUSE MEMBERS.
DON COLGAN
Chuckster | August 26, 2010 8:34 AM The tactics by the republican/tea party since Obama took office have basically reduced it to a segmented party with little broad based appeal. Obama and the Dems will get 80% of the Latino vote, 95% of the African American vote, 50% of the women vote, 80% of the youth vote, 90% of the gay vote. When you add the lower percentages from elderly and then white, it points to a winning election. --------------------------------------------------------------- Talk about being completely disconnected from reality, Chuckster actually believes what he types. First of all, look at the turnouts for these last primaries. Rubio in FL had more voters that both democrats COMBINED! You actually thing the “ youth vote “ will be out in November to vote the democrats into power once again? Most of the youth can’t find jobs! The homos, blacks and latinos all have an agenda, sure they will vote for liberals but they are not enough to win in Nov. Plus many moderate dems are so pissed they won’t even show up to vote…
Libtards are going down in Nov no matter how they try to spin it.
Keep dreaming my man. LOL!
Conspicuously missing from this tripe disguised as analysis is any reason to vote to keep the Dems in charge. You'd think with all the super-duper legislative achievements that the Dems have given us, a gracious public would be flocking to them in thanks.
Turns out, maybe the public is quite so enamored of their "betters" in politics and media as you'd like to believe.
P.S. On the upside, I've bookmarked your site and added it to my increasingly long list of places I need to come visit in 10 weeks for some good old fashioned mockery.
In the Florida primary on Tuesday nearly twice as many Republicans voted as Democrats. The Republicans had an uncontested Senate race. There's a clear enthusiasm gap. There was a clear enthusiasm gap in 2008, and 2006 that favored Democrats. Money can't overcome voter enthusiasm.
Let's not forget the Republican Party motto for 2010 - "We REALLY hate Niggers!"
The Intrade predictions which is where people put their money where their mouth is has the GOP at a 76.4% chance of taking back the US House.
Overconfidence is also a problem, the GOP is going around acting as if they have already won and that's a big no-no. Second, if they were really that competent, they wouldn't have to call names when anybody raises the possibility of them not winning.
Reid, you are deranged. Please seek some sort of medical help before you embarass yourself with more articles like this. I write you this because I care. I know you must be an unhappy and tortured soul. I will pray for you.
Expect big losses for Republicans in the Fall. The Tea Party has become like 40 "Ralph Naders", so wherever a Tea Party candidate is strong, it's an automatic win for Democrats.
Plus, I don't sense anyone wants to elect Republicans in 2010, we all know they are the cause of the current economic problems, so it's good that Obama has brought us back from the brink.
Democrats will hold both the House and Senate, you can bank on it.
Hah - who's smoking what? 19 out of 19 of the first 19 comments here are snide negative ones. Of course, these are (IMHO) mainly from recent hires from Craigslist jobs postings offering "quick money cruising the web and quickly writing focused content supportive of our client. Make your trailer payment next month the easy way from home"
is this Rove's idea?
When I read an author this delusional it causes me not to want to read anything he/she writes again. Reid Wilson is just adding to the cacophony already out there and that's not helpful in these desperate times. Sad, really...
This is bias analysis and lots of wishful thinking.
The fundamental factors that elected Obama and the Democrats to Congress do not exist anymore - financial panic, economic recession - and their place we have 19 months of failed economic policies and radical passage of legislation that most Americans dislike.
It is not a question of opinion, just go to the piece called "Elected by the Majority, Governing for the Minority" which is a devastating accumulation of facts of how Obama is governing. The picture they draw is so devastating and unarguable that they state, "Never in the annals of a great democracy have so few imposed their will on so many".
But most of all are the statistics presented of the divergence between the American people and Obama’s actions. View all at http://www.robbingamerica.com The collection that will destroy Democrat's control of Congress this November.
Hope Tim Kaine spent a bundle for this drivel.
Ultimately, the money is used to motivate voters to turn out to vote. Trust me ... we're already motivated ... no more money required. We're fidgeting in our seats waiting for November 2010 (AND 2012).
Your analysis should be about why we are going to see the largest wave election of a lifetime with equal attention to the failure of the Progressive Agenda as it relates to American values and ideals.
Whoops, forgot, honesty is not part of the liberal narrative.
OMG Whistling past the graveyard...the Democrat party is about to receive a Spanking of Historic Proportions...can't wait to read your follow up story about their loss being all Bush's fault...*LOL*
The majority of posters here are just adding another reason why Repubs won't win in November...
Whether it's on their cable news channel, the radio or the internet, everything that comes out of Repub's mouths is NEGATIVE and Insulting.
All they say is NO and call people names.
What makes Repubs think people want to vote for that?
Of course the country wants the Repubs back in power, why wouldn't they...they had a pretty damn good run from 00-08.
How's that Kennedy seat doing? ha ha ha ha ha ha! BTW, economy didn't crash until Pelosi and Reid and the DNC took office in 2007 backed by the constant efforts of the media to say a YOY debt as % of GDP decreasing from 2004(despite two wars) and a 4.4% unemployment rate was the worst economy in world history or something. AH, so so funny now. Vote em out and save this country, and while you're at it, impeach Obama!
Four reasons the Democrats WILL retain control of Congress:
1) Massive vote fraud by ACORN (under new name).
2) Massive vote fraud by SEIU.
3) !Ola amigo. ?Ees dees vote place.
4) Dead people vote early and often.
Demonrats: Delusional, deranged, disgusting, DIMWITS !!
Always have been...always will be !!
Demonrats , are so stupid, they do not realize just how blasted stupid they truly are...
Grasping at straws aren't we?
" But models matter, and right now Democrats' models are inspiring more confidence than Republicans'."
They are? To whom? Democrats?
Even Democratic hacks like Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, Larry Sabato and Nate Silver are predicting the Democrats are going to take a bath.
What models are they using?
Without Acorn to grease the skids, its doubtful the dims will steal another election
How many times are people going to get the analysis of PA-12 *wrong*?! The reason the Dems won that is because it was a (closed) *Primary*, and Indies did not show up at the polls. That's why the models were wrong - they assumed Indies would vote, and they didn't because it was a closed Primary.
The problem for Dems is that the turnout they saw in the PA-12 special *won't* be repeated in Nov - i.e. Indies *will* show up in Nov (and vote decidedly against the Dems).
If this is what Dems are hanging their hats on (along with the "more money canard"), they've already lost this election...
Hey Kyle, you dumbf___, just look at the percentages of these comments and do the math- you are more stupid than the author!
"The tactics by the republican/tea party since Obama took office have basically reduced it to a segmented party with little broad based appeal. Obama and the Dems will get 80% of the Latino vote, 95% of the African American vote, 50% of the women vote, 80% of the youth vote, 90% of the gay vote."
And will still lose epically.
"Democrats will hold both the House and Senate, you can bank on it."
Thanks, but I will take my chances in Vegas, where I might actually get lucky and win.
"All they say is NO"
Um, that's a BAD thing? Lemme give it a try:
Higher taxes: NO!
ObamaCare: NO!
10% unemployment: NO!
Tanking Dow: NO!
Cap-and-trade: NO!
Socialism: NO!
Hmmm. From my vantage point, being the party of "NO!" seems to be quite attractive to Normal America.
"What makes Repubs think people want to vote for that?"
Poll after poll after poll demonstrating that the GOP brand is far more popular than Obamanomics.
I wonder if these delusional Democrats are as delusional as they come off as, or are they simply shilling a party line in hopes that people will believe it.
The only real truth in this article is the very last sentence 'Democrats are using every lever of power at their disposal to hold on' Oh how this is true....instead of doing what they were elected to do.....they will use every dirty trick, every method, legal or illegal to hold on to power. These S@#t bags need to be removed from power immediately
@Rich - These comments aren't a representation of what is going on in the electorate. Most people in America are vehemently against Republicans, that's why all trends point to them losing big in the Fall.
We all know Republicans have caused all of our current problems, so the moment they try and blame "Obama", it loses another vote for them.
You'll see the brillance of Obama in time, he's just too educated for the lower classes to understand right now... but once he is in the middle of his 2nd term, people like you will sit back and say... Damn! Obama has been one of the best Presidents our Republic has ever known.
"What makes Repubs think people want to vote for that?
Anonymous | August 26, 2010 10:52 AM"
Tune in on Nov. 4 and see for yourself. This a**-kicking has been building for over a year now. The only people who don't know about this are people who don't follow politics. The Democrats have lost the house. The only suspense is over what will happen in the Senate.
What many of the posters fail to realize is that the people are sick and tired of Republican obstructionism at every level. They are tired of the right wing trying to turn us into a third-world country. No one wants Health Care Reform? Think again: what people want is not the watered down version that was passed but an all-encompassing system that will throw out health-for-profit that is the norm now.
Gee, another republican constituancy pretending to be reponsible contributers! Go get ye to your tea-baggers buds!
What's amusing is that Mr. Wilson thinks it's going to take money and ground operations to turn out republican votes.
The man simply does not get it.
-Cnation
This election will come down to economics and common-sense, as usual. The republican's economic plan is the same it was in the 1920's, leading the the Great Depression and then again to the Great Recession. You have to give them this, that they are consistently pushing their top-heavy agenda. But the economy hums better with a strong middle-class and more people from poverty levels moving to the middle-class. I'm not saying the Dems can move us quickly to balance, the Blue Dogs have to grow some balls or get out of the way. But people realize the Dems are the un-GOP and that's what Dems have going for them.
GOP has built a team that is so much in lock-step, they can't even argue positions to come up with a plan that is both popular and beneficial to a large number of voters. This is not even Democracy and won't last long. But they can always buy votes and they can cheat and lie, which they always resort to to push their unpopular positions. So this is where the Dem's vigilance in fighting this war will come into play.
They didn't adjust the exit polls? Sounds to me too much jiggling of the stats to make their own team happy. It worked well in 1994, hopefully enough people have woken up to this same old game.
The only thing the GOP can agree on is they want Obama to fail. How unpatriotic is that?
"@Rich - These comments aren't a representation of what is going on in the electorate. Most people in America are vehemently against Republicans, that's why all trends point to them losing big in the Fall."
Um, there are no trends pointing to Republicans losing big in the fall. All polls have the House Democrats getting crushed in November, and Senate Republicans picking up 5-7 seats. Your statement shows a complete disconnect from reality. All trends? At this point, that statement is insulting. You obviously made that part up. Show us those trends that have Republicans losing big in the fall. I'll bet you can't. None exist...
This analysis is much closer to my own than usually seen in the main-stream press. A hefty 98% of incumbents won their primary races, (fact, not belief) making the position that this is the year to throw incumbents out an inaccurate talking point. Most estimates say that over 90 percent of incumbents will be elected in November, making the Tea Party excitement a historical footnote. If this holds true, Republicans may win some seats in both houses but mathematically cannot gain control of either house.
And there is the fear factor. Republicans always over-estimate the effect of their scare the whites tactics and their emphasis on hating and fearing the 'other.' Their current emphasis on Muslims is already wearing thin, becoming a 'ho-hum' issue, since this is America, and religious freedom is a cherished right, not a privilege subject to public opinion. The fear factor did not work in 2008, and it has no more purchase in 2010.
And once the election is over, and the Senate eliminates the filibuster rule, the Republican power to just say NO will be eliminated and they will be powerless to sabotage needed legislation.
you lib dems are funny "nobody" wants to vote for republicans.
Reasons why people will vote Repub's this fall.
1.) Obama has added so much money to the defecit.
2.) He gives to the unions like crazy(UAW, teachers bailouts.)
3.) Passing healthcare against America's will. Somebody said on here some people like the Healthcare bill(thats like 45-48% of the Americans.) The Healthcare bill is under 50% approval which is bad for the Dems.
4)Doesn;t pay for unemployment benefits to make the Repubs look bad. Obama and the Dems payed for extending unemployment benefits before. Thus this proves my theory of making the Repubs look bad.
5.) Obama bails out states. People don;t want the federal government bailing out states.
Other talking points:
Somebody mentioned the Dems will win 95% of the latino vote I'll give you 60-65% of the latino vote the Dems will win. I agree the GOP and Dems will split the women vote nearly.
The Dems aren;t gonna win of the Youth Vote maybe like 55%-60% not 80%.
Yeah the Republicans will take seats in the South(1 seat in Arkansas and Louisiana's 3rd district(Charles Melancon's(D) seat.) Alan Grayson's seat in Florida they have a good chance taking. Ron Klien's seat in Florida with Allen West running(District 22) and Florida's 24th District( Susan Kosmas's(D)current seat.)
Moderate Dems will not show up this year like they did in 2006 and 2008!
Ill give you the Dems are good at digging up dirt on Repub candidates(thats what the Dems did in 2006 and 2008.) Their House Campaign guy(Chris Van Hollen D-Maryland) is good at digging up dirt on Repub candidates. Thats one thing the Dems have going for them is Van Hollen's expertise!
Btw, I voted for Obama in 2008, I will be going Republican thois year! See you guys at the polls!
Unlike a lot of people here, I heartily welcome this analysis and hope it gets a lot of traction.
Those of us who truly wish to see the Democrats' ignominious reign of corrupt & incompetent one-party rule come to a much deserved end are crazy to count their chickens while the fox is still rampaging in the henhouse, which if you read between the lines is Mr. Wilson' implicit warning.
This is NOT the time to be overconfident. All outraged & dissatisfied citizens need to know that their lives, and the lives of their kids & unborn generations to come depend not only on their votes but on their doing everything within their power to ensure that all their friends, relatives, co-workers & neighbors vote this election.
The Dems currently enjoy complete control of all the levers of power and all that that entails including the ability to 'tweak' the totals, if you get my drift. The opposition must not only do enough to squeak by, they must overwhelm the entrenched forces of corruption in order to prevail.
This election, we have to mount the largest effort we've ever mounted to win. The Dems will not go without putting up a fight, including playing dirtier than they've ever played before.
Frankly, we needed this reality check.
In the Florida primaries and other state races I've seen over the past several weeks, the most striking numbers have been the lopsided voter turnouts. In Florida, 900,000 republicans went to the polls versus 600,000 democrats. I saw similar numbers in minnisota. The dems are toast, and I can see November from my house.
The only thing the GOP can agree on is they want Obama to fail. How unpatriotic is that?
Economz | August 26, 2010 11:17 AM
As unpatriotic as it was when the left spent 8 years wanting Bush to fail. Stay out of the patriotism argument, your side lost it a long time ago...
this is what happens when you freebase kool aid.
Can you say the detractors on here are out of touch with america? yes you can. The democrats will be the major winners in Nov. the tea party has been a disaster for them. in each race where a tea party candidate wins, it simply elects the democrat.
republicans are imploding so this article is right on the money.
Obama remains extremely popular in america, he's going to be greater than reagan according to his lastest poll numbers. Republicans are like dumb, poorly behaved children. they whine, cry, moan, but never give any answers for what they actually want.
Obama has ended one war, the last one ends in 355 days, he got our banks back on track (and we made a profit), he saved the auto industry, got the economy growing again, got exports WAY up, restored our national reputation, is about to get our country healthy again while saving billions, is solving the gay problem in the military, stopped banks from robbing customers, on and on. he's a regular miracle worker.
that above record will be impossible to run against, the Republicans have done nothing for america in 18 years, so no wonder they are becoming so desperate.
Funny how the "intensity gap" never came up? The dems have better 'Modeling' therefore they maintain the House? LOL.
Minnesota-The GOP turnout is high? Thats a lean democratic state too.
As for wanting Obama to fail-the Dems did it to themselves I mean they control every house!
Today's stat of the day: "As of the most recent data available, Aug.7th, 10.1 million people in our nation of 300 million people were receiving unemployment compensation checks". Bet the Dem. operatives next move will be to send a threatening GOVT letter to these people to better vote "D" on Nov. 2nd or no more extensions of U.C. benefits. That's the "Chicago Way."
Let us hope and pray the Republicans do at least take the House. I do not think America can take much more of the current admisitration and congress without going into a devestating derpression. We are teetering on the verge of one now and the only thing American businesses are holding on to is the the HOPE that republicans do get enough power to stop this governmental leviathan now at work destroying our economy. I think all indications are that the base of conservatives is much more fired up and ready to go than the left so frankly I am not too worried about it. I think articles like this are written to keep the leftist base from getting too depressed.
@joejm65 - No, Republicans have already conceded they can't win the Senate. The House, they might pick up 6-9 seats, but the data shows they can't win the House either.
You are overlooking the fact the Tea Party will lose to Democrats in most every race. (except backwards, trailer park States like KY & AK)
I'm just looking at the data, you are obviously not.
You'll see alot of these type of articles in the next 70 days. First, they serve to motivate the base. . . "What, we're going to keep the house after I've been hearing all summer that we'll get creamed? Is that true Gibbsy?" Well, no it 's not, but if the dems can somehow motivate their base a bit to get out, they may be able to hold the numbers down.
Second, he quotes "In fact, senior Democratic strategists say they're not only likely to keep the House, but they believe the GOP won't come close to gaining the 39 seats they need to take over" Of course, what else are they suppose to say, these senior democratic leaders. . you know, the ones with chairmanships and the like. They can't throw their fellow dems off the cliff and still expect them to try and go out and get others fired up.
Third, yes there is a money gap. But it's where that money will be spent. Do they spend it in very competitive races with the possibility of having nothing to show for their efforts or do they spend it in marginally tight races to build a firewall? Do you think the unemployed IBEW or
UAW union person is going to go out and canvass as much as they would have before? There's a difference between making union wage and canvassing on company time and canvassing on unemployment checks.
Fourth, there is the Barack factor? Let's face it, many college or young voter went to the polls in 08 to be a part of history, probably voted down ballot Dem and then went to the college frat or local pub to celebrate. That's not happening this time. You think the political discussion at college parties and the like are anything near what it was in 08?
Finally, articles like this serve as a win-win-win. Dems get blown out and this guy can say, well, "senior" dems sure were wrong, plus look at the polling leading up to the election. "We all knew it would be a tough fight." If there's not a shellacking, then all that chatter out there was false andpeople didn't register a vot "against" Obama but rather individual candidates, there was no wave. And if the dems don't lose the house, this guy is a great future teller. "Look back at my article in August, I predicted they wouldn't lose the house."
1st and 2nd year congressmen/congresswomen who won the trifecta (voting for TARP, Bailouts & Obamacare) will have a 70% loss rate.
Reid: Tell it to the bartender not to those of us that are sick of liberals detroying the country.
Pay no attention to that man behind this story, for I am the great and powerful Oz !
@Chad Johnson - Don't forget the Republicans are who created the near Depression, so it's unlikely anyone in America will vote them back in.
Obama ended the Recession in 2009 and got our Country back on a growth cycle, so that's a big success.
It's very doubtful Repubs can win the House at this point. Americans are too united against Repubs at this time. So your comment seemed out of touch with what is actually going on.
Reid: Use your internet to search for "Hugh Hewitt 2006 elections". He wrote exactly the same article on why Republicans wouldn't lose the House in 2006.
Your piece here resembles the steaming brown piles my dogs leave out in the yard.
Money: meaningless. If you are despised by your constituents, the more they see your face, the more the hate you, and the more they want you out.
Turnout: if you have not been reading the polls lately, >80% of the people believe that the clowns in DC need to be swept out.
Opposition Research: put down the crack pipe. Have you noticed that no-names are popping in? Of course once the MSM isolate, fixate, and attack these no-names, they become names solely out of the left-wing progressive hatred you call your party. Quayle, Rubio, and others are beginning to take ground. Ha Ha Ha. Nice try here.
Modelling: a joke. You are grasping at straws.
You are forgetting that a LOT of people brought the Dems in to teach the Republicans a lesson. Bad blood out. That is why JD lost to McLame. Had it been another, well respected Arizonan, McLame would be prepping for pasture. More than twice the number of Americans are conservative than liberal/lunatic/progressive. It has nothing to do with a party. The loons have steered the country in the WRONG direction, feigned any responsibility, lied about the status of the nation, and continue to point the finger at a man who in no way possible could still have any affect on the nation (you used to call him Chimpy McBushitler).
Dems are gone.
You are forgetting one thing this election cycle. It is the same as 1994; all the pollsters sample very small amounts of data. Usually, for statistical (read BS) reasons, the data is skewed to project an answer as opposed to a pure random sample. The dynamics are way too unpredictable, and as we have been witnessing, a new boner pops up everyday with this administration and congress.
You are projecting a wish and grasping at straws. I seriously would wager that the damage would be much worse than you or any of your colleagues wish to believe.
Even Republicans are losing in some primaries.
That alone should tell you that something wicked (cool) this way comes.
@ Rich....."backward trailor park states"....really....You leftists are sickening. Every leftist post I have read on this thread involves them winning by sepereating amerrica into groups based on racial lines. And the other parts of their arguements involve this type of infantile name calling. Bitter children really is all tehy are fueled by anger and jealousy. I pity them and people like you Rich who see the world as somewhere you must tear others down to life your own self. How sad that so many Americans have been so affected by the plague of collectivism.
Mr. Wilson, as a previous Obama precinct manager, worker and supporter I think I speak for my team that knocked on doors, made those calls and bundled contributions for Obama in that if this administration has lost us, and they have, then I would have to surmise that the Independents feel even more strongly about this than we do. This article is nothing more than wishful projection. This November and that of 2012 will mark political history and will be recorded as such. Just take a look around your own city or town Mr. Wilson. This non existent reservoir of hope in the information forwarded in this article has dried up and blown away. Quite simple really....but maybe not to that 28% who still think they are a majority.
This election cycle will be more like 1934, FDRs midterm. In that cycle, the republicans lurched to the right with hysterical claims of 'socialism', anti-immigrant rascism, etc. Radio prevocateurs were fearmongering just as they are now but back them the hot rhetoric was anti-semitic not islamophobia.
Republicans always tend to overreach in the extreem while Dems are consensus gatherers. the voters are not stupid. They won't turn the keys over to these maniacs. Dems lose about 10 seats over all ...gains seats in the NE and Midwest while republicans pick up a few in AR, LA, TN, VA...In Senate Dems will keep majority 56-44
And Rich nobody but the most fringe true beliveres think that blaming Bush is a winning strategy or that Obama's Keysian economic policies have been good for America.....but Im sure your haze of hate and dellusion is impenetrable so enjoy..:)
Chuckster says: "The tactics by the republican/tea party since Obama took office have basically reduced it to a segmented party with little broad based appeal. Obama and the Dems will get 80% of the Latino vote, 95% of the African American vote, 50% of the women vote, 80% of the youth vote, 90% of the gay vote. When you add the lower percentages from elderly and then white, it points to a winning election.
Chuck, a simple analogy for you. Let's take a sample poll of 100 individuals each nite. Over time, because of the frequency of the poll taken each day it becomes a better gauge and analysis of the general population as a whole. Obama is already polling below 50%, so your "make-up" of percentages described above have already been taken into account because of the continous polling in which abnormalies become smaller and smaller.
Next, let's take that poll and say Obama polls 49/51 (approve/disapprove). And by 49/51, I am being kind. The African/Am vote is roughly 10% of the population. So out of 100 people polled over a long period of time they would be expected to represent 10% of the 100. Now, take those people out of the results while assuming 9 in 10 approve of Obama. You now end up with 40/50 (49-9=40, 51-1=50) approve/disapprove. That's not a winning combination.
Now, as Micheal Barone indicates, there are many majority/minority districts out there. That is, because of rulings, a number of congressional seats have been drawn to favor minorities. Picture a series of concentric circles (i.e., target practice circles). You might have pockets of minorities in various parts of this diagram. And if you were to cut it up into 8 like pizze pieces, in the long run these would probably average out. However, because of the way the district was drawn to give preference to minority candidates, these minorities now make up their own district, thereby robbing other dem candidates of the automatic black vote. These candidates are essentially left with the 40/50 approval/disapproval numbers. That's not a recipe for winning.
The author left out another thing in the Dems favor ... their history of stealing elections. They stole the Governorship in Washington, a Senate Seat in Minnesota, and almost stole the Electoral votes in Florida.
The Unions along with groups like ACORN will do everything in their power to steal as many elections as they can in 2010. If they win in November, then there will be no going back to a free market economy. Total reliance on government will be permanent.
It's impossible to know if this garbage is intended seriously. I am assuming it is a weird joke. If it is not a joke, it is worthless and pointless.
The real question is: How did it get published and why?
Memo to zedico (10:39am): negative is not the same as snide. A debate is when two people don't agree, and put forward sound reasons for their positions. Most posters disagree with the author, but maybe you haven't noticed that there is not a single *** needed to mask the expletives that almost invariably surface in leftist comments. On the other hand, the side that agrees with the author has really tolerant posters like Rich (11:37am) who characterizes two entire states as backwards and trailer park.
It's also pretty telling that the author thinks that the only thing the DNC needs to win the election is lots of money. Tell that to Jeff Greene in Florida. The truth is that most of the money is going direct to the individual candidates rather than the RNC, which not even Republicans like very much.
you left out:
war is peace
freedom is slavery
oh this ones a keeper. make sure they dont scrub the website. better cache this one.
Meanwhile the headline on Politico today...
Democrats privately fear House prospects worsening
By JIM VANDEHEI & ALEX ISENSTADT & MIKE ALLEN | 8/25/10 9:07 PM EDT
Top Democrats are growing markedly more pessimistic about holding the House, privately conceding that the summertime economic and political recovery they were banking on will not likely materialize by Election Day.
In conversations with more than two dozen party insiders, most of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about the state of play, Democrats in and out of Washington say they are increasingly alarmed about the economic and polling data they have seen in recent weeks.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/41469.html#ixzz0xjEGDvSu
Sir, you are an idiot and your reasoning is ridiculous and flawed. You certainly sound like a radical liberal progressive, although I do not know for sure.
The GOP will easily with the House, maybe 5-7 Senators slots, a vast majority of the Governotships, and a majority of the sate houses. The GOP may even gain 60-70 seats in the House.
You should place this article in the New York Times or Newsweek where it belongs, the fantacy papers.
Wilson left out 2 huge factors against the Dems.
The rage of the majority against the arrogant elitist "progressives" (socialists), and the Tea Party.
Wilson may think that ACORN and SEIU can match the turnout of the Tea Party. We will see. My money's on the Tea Party.
Democrats will definitely use every dirty trick in the playbook to hold onto their total control of Government. They've shown in the past that they are good at slugging it out on the ground, winning the hard way with organizations like ACORN signing people up over and over, and then getting to the courthouse first with anything that is close. The arrogant radical left wing Elites that have given us record long term UNEMPLOYMENT, and are sending the economy back into recession, will kick, and bite, and scratch, and claw to maintain their ability to force their radical agenda on America. If Republicans aren't ready to fight back just as hard, or harder, they'll deserve to lose!!!!
This analysis might well play out, and the Democrats retain control of the House. But I hope it does not. In fact, I hope Democrats lose in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2020 and every election cycle thereafter, until they disappear from political influence altogether. Then, the Libertarians, Republicans, and other parties can have some nice hot debates and we can choose from among their candidates. I am weary of "liberals", "progressives", and whatever other labels leftists wish to assume.
The opposition research is in full swing in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District where the State Democratic Party has twice now dug up supposed "dirt" on the Republican candidate, State Senator Dan Kapanke.
Kapanke is, in my opinion, one of the most honest and straightforward politicians holding office in Wisconsin and reporters should start asking his opponent, sitting Congressman Ron Kind, if he thinks that his opponent, Kapanke, is an honest man. If he does, he should call off the dogs. If he doesn't, he should state why and we can watch him go down to defeat as people write him off in disgust over his willingness to spread the "dirt."
This election should be about policies, and it will be. People are going to see the scum-sucking dirt diggers for what they are: political operatives desperate to retain control over our lives. As many others have said: November can't come soon enough.
Those who do not see the Tsunami wave coming are destined to be washed out to sea by it! Forget making analogies based on historical precedent. None of it applies. Dissatisfaction with this congress is OFF THE CHARTS!!! Democratic control of congress is ALREADY GONE!
Yes, ACORN (or whatever they have renamed it) will be turning out the usual crowd of illegal aliens, winos, corpses, Smurfs, felons, winos and housecats but its not going to do any good. The unions will take hundreds of millions they've squeezed from their members and spending it on vomit-inducing attack ads that will attempt to cover the voting records of their chosen Democrat candidates. There is a tidal wave of anger because the Obamunists promised Hope And Change and delivered an economic depression and humiliating insults like The Mosque Of Osama's Victory to the people who voted them in two years ago. The left is demoralized and angry with the Democrats and the Republicans are angry and motivated. This will be a blowout. Boehner will be Speaker with a large majority.
Will Reid Wilson be fired whent he Repubicans take the house? Isn't a political reporter supposed to report facts and not twist them into his wish list? Another delusional libtard.
Will Reid Wilson be fired whent he Repubicans take the house? Isn't a political reporter supposed to report facts and not twist them into his wish list? Another delusional libtard.
People who put their money where their mouth is, the Intrade prediction market, currently put the probability that the GOP retakes the House at 74%.
That means people with skin in the game believe the Democrats holding the House is a pretty serious long shot.
Keep carrying the water, though. Statistically, you'll draw to an open ended straight about 30% of the time with two cards to come.
funny
i liked the first repsonse to your artcile. you are completely delusional if you think the dems will keeo th ehouse. Not only will they lose the house, they will lose more thna 100 seats. Also, they are going to lose the senate.
"Democrats have engaged in what they characterize as an unprecedented research campaign, digging up dirt on GOP candidates in hopes of driving their negative numbers through the roof."
Unprecedented?!?!?!?! Who are they kidding; the Democrats have relied on negative and nothing but negative campaigning since the 90's. It's all they know. It's all they have. The race card is worn and tattered, the "extremist" card is no longer credible in contrast to the real extremism of the Obama administration and the far-Left which dominates the current Democrat Party. It's over for them.
If you drink enough on November 1st, you might be able to sleep through November 2nd, 3rd, and maybe the 4th. But eventually you will have to wake up and face Speaker Boehner.
Thanks for the laugh but I have to ask when the last time you've been outside of the citiy? The rest of American is fuming over what the Dems have done the past 2 years and don't want to send them home where everyone will make them live with what they have wrought on us.Remember what Franklin said...the first box is the ballot box.... the second....!
Back in 2006 the Republican models based on $$$ in the bank had the Repubs keeping the house so in a transfigurational year like this $$$ in the bank don't necesarily count.
The republicans have alienated Latinos, African Americans, and everyone else. So what do they have? They've cornered the Angry White Male vote.
Good luck with that.
You forgot number 5: Voter fraud
Start saying the phrase "electoral genocide" over and over again. It will get you prepared for life on November 3rd.
BTW, have you read the column by Alex Gutierrez about how Murkowski will crush Miller in the Alaskan Republican Primary? I'm afraid you will soon share her embarrassment as a political prognosticator.
"Obama ended the Recession in 2009 and got our Country back on a growth cycle, so that's a big success."
@ Rich, seriously? Are you for real? Ended the recession? You do know that the revised GDP for this year is going backwards right? That is not the end of the recession, that is another one beginning - most notable as a double-dip - and this country is not back on any cycle. Keep thinking that America will not vote in Republicans. You people said the same thing about Reagan and we all know what happened there.
Dude give 2 of what your smoking, it has to be some good stuff! Pull your head out of Queen Nancy's arse. You D-Baggers are toast in the House. The question is can you hang onto a slim majority in the Senate!
Mr. Reid...I suggest you relect on the wise words of American icon: John Wayne
"Life is tough, it is even tougher when you are stupid."
It seems like most posters are really buying into Wilson's theory...
sarc/
I guess someone has to write this crap. I hope Pravda is paying well these days, Mr. Wilson.
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com who came closet to prediciting the Presidential election wrote a very similar article...
"national mood wants a change from the status quo."
I can accept this type of story if you are 18 years old, haven't even been to college yet, just a little bit niave.
But if you have any life of experience of any kind, you know that flipping back from Democrat to Republican and Republican to Democrat is not change - that is the status quo.
Americans want the status quo - always. Doing the 'switch' is a sign the economy is bad.
Period, end of story, nothing more, nothing less. If the economy is bad, the party in power, will get punished. You look like you have some facial hair - you know this.
Quit the lazy reporting.
This is analysis is of the same quality as that done by the White House economic team, or that of leftish economists in general: bias and deeply flawed. It is pretty clear that Americans are sick of big government tax and spend liberals in Washington and that the Democratic Party has bungled EVERYTHING they have touched and frozen the economy in place. Lies, lies, and more lies come from Democrats.
"Progressives" are scum, incompetent and no better then petty thieves, and it is great that the American people are coming to realize this.
Well written article and will likely prove true. The conservatives are way too extreme is year, they want to take away women's rights even if they are raped or molested. They want us to go back to a recession, they want us to lose our place in the world. They even tried to stop us from being healthy despite the billions in savings.
I see it as Republicans have shown they can't govern when they're in power and they've shown they'll do everything they can to keep anyone else who's elected from governing.
Fear, Hatred, Distortion, Distraction and Division is all Republicans & Fox News have to offer.
No wonder most Americans are against them.
Republicans = America's Taliban
To all the ones predicting, the RE-dummies are taking back the house. Take a look in the mirror and tell what you have done in your community to make a difference. I bet majority of the comments will tell a lie and say I have done this… typical how the behavior can tell a lie just like politicians lie to have their way… and small minded people will fall for that trap. I would like to see some of you run for president and see how far you get.
"Won't come close" to picking up 39 seats? Maybe they should start publishing polls in braille.
@Andrew - But it's the Republicans who are the big spenders, not the Democrats. Look at this chart based on US Treasury data. No wonder everyone in our nation hates Republicans.
National Political Debt Chart
http://www.lafn.org/gvdc/Natl_Debt_Chart.html
PS: I doubt you are from San Francisco, there aren't many uneducated people there. The Democrats have done well to get our country prosperous again, so why would anyone trust Republicans? They never know how to govern when they get in office.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Libs crack me up. You really dont get it do you? We hate EVERYONE in washington, even our own....were getting rid of everybody!!
Whether a candidate is GOP or "Tea Party" (Put that in quotations because you idiots apparently dont understand that the tea party is not an actual political party) they could have a total of 20 bucks and they are still going to beat the Dem in the race. The biggest mistake the dems could have ever made is to make the regular Americans start paying attention to politics...now your going to find out what being a patriot is all about. TAKING THE COUNTRY BACK FROM ITS ENEMIES
Dems spending $$$ to win will accomplish the same as the Shamulus did.
NOTHING
Huge victory for GOP and rationality in November!
@IUT - Yes, it appears the Republicans will pick up 4-7 seats in the House, then perhaps lose 1 in the Senate. The favorability of Republicans is dismal with the current mood of our country.
Repubs goofed everything up, so it's unlikely they can gain much ground for the next few election cycles.
Reid,
care to make a bet? Put your money up and I will give you odds.
Welcome to Fantasy Island. We hope you will enjoy your stay!
@Ben - Keep in mind the Tea Party has only been electing Democrats. The Tea Party is primarily made up of white trash, racist, bigots, so our country has shunned them from moderate politics. Ask any Tea Party candidate what they will do if they reach DC, you will see a blank stare every time.
The Republicans and Tea Party is now down to 22% of the US population, so there won't be many wins for them in the Fall.
"Why Democrats will keep the House". Lets' see: Elvis returns in a space ship. Congress
votes to dismantle the I.R.S.. Al Gore admits
the "Global warming theory" is a scam. Democrats
keep the House in November elections. Yeah, sounds about right to me.
It's really very simple - will the voters give back the majority to the party that got us in this mess by catering to the big bucks special interest or will we keep on trying to get out of the mess?
I think that if we don't sit with our thumbs where the sun don't shine, the democrats will retain the house. More important, we need a super majority in the senate, so the obstructionists against Obama (even against policy they recommended when Obama accepts the recommendation!) cannot deadlock the senate where all progress has been defeated.
@cccc - The Democrats have brought our country back to success, so it sounds like you haven't been in a city for awhile. Yes, the damage Bush caused the entire nation is criminal, so that's why everyone is standing strong against any Republicans getting into office.
We won't forget who caused the problem, Bush, Cheney and their band of Texas thieves.
Absolutely agree with Lance...
Reid, I will gladly bet you $10,000 that the Republicans will win the House this fall. I wish you could put your money where your mouth is.
By the way, you have "Turnout" as one of your main points. By chance, have you actually looked at voter turnout in 2010? It's not 2008 any longer (and George W. Bush is no longer in politics). Ummmmm, sorry to tell you, but you are dead wrong regarding turnout. Not even remotely close. Republicans have had turnout advantages, even in states that went Democrat, such as Michigan and Colorado.
lol...this article is just spin. Pretty much every pollster had the Dems in DEEEEEEEEP trouble!
This Republican vitriol is driven by the selfish isolationist culture of the Tea Party. Most of the comments seem very childlike. The truth is we don't yet know how the midterm elections will go. Remember 2008, every poll had McCain and Obama neck and neck. As we see they were all very wrong. While presenting a credible argument, backed up with some empirical evidence, Mr. Wilson does not go too far in his predictions. He includes evidence which supports both Republicans and Democrats. Regarding his argument that it is difficult to change the political balance of the House and Senate, I don't know if that's so true anymore. With instant gratification values being fostered by the media and consumerism more than ever, voters are easily more fickle than in the past. But, it's hard to imagine that the majority of those who voted for Obama and the Dems in 08 would ever vote this year for a Republican.
reid is a DCCC stooge who is sending out claptrap about an election which is probably already in transition to the GOP. And vahn1995, you are amusing in your childish comments. "It is hard to imagine..would ever vote fo a GOP..." means you are a partisan hack-wannabe with no idea that INDEPENDENT voters have seen Obama in action and DON'T LIKE what they see.
While this is likely whistling past the graveyard, I have to think, wow have the dems, my party, bottomed out. Really, our claim to leadership is we will raise more ill-gotten campaign funds and sling more mud than the republicans...I could not be more proud. I think I will save myself a trip to the polls in November...it clearly makes little difference.
Go ahead and let the GOP take over.
We can finally begin our march to slave wage servitude and then soon enough places like China and India can be some of the worlds greatest consumers while the products they buy say "made in the USA" and are made by low wage Americans w/no benefits.
I'm excited. Arent you?
I wonder if the massive Beck-Tea Party turnout on Saturday will be enough to make Mr. Wilson piss his pants.
This article is a joke. You underestimate the anger lever of "We the People".
The United States was not founded on socialistic principals nor will we will we accept it.
Fiscal responsibility is the phrase of the day. Look it up because it's something the left doesn't understand.
"I'm excited. Arent you?"
-JCR
You have no idea.
What a rush it will be to throw out 0bammunist morons like you who believe that raising the minimum wage, giving union thugs carte blanch, and imposing confiscatory tax rates on "the rich" will help lower the stratospheric teenage and minority unemployment rate.
"Democrats love jobs. It's employers they can't stand."
-Paul Tsongas
Poor article.
JCR...just wondering if you perfer low wage Americans w/no benefits to unemployed Americans dependent on the government?
Dependence begets subservience and venality, suffocates the germ of virtue, and prepares fit tools for the designs of ambition.
Thomas Jefferson
There is a natural aristocracy among men. The grounds of this are virtue and talents.
Thomas Jefferson
"This Republican vitriol is driven by the selfish isolationist culture of the Tea Party."
-Vahn1995
No actually the Tea Party movement is based upon the urgency of throwing your 0bammunist buddies out of office.
"Remember 2008, every poll had McCain and Obama neck and neck."
-Vahn1995
You are clearly delusional:
Gallup And Rasmussen Polls: Obama Leads McCain By 7 Points, October 3, 2008
http://themoderatevoice.com/23182/gallup-and-rasmussen-polls-obama-leads-mccain-by-7-points
"But, it's hard to imagine that the majority of those who voted for Obama and the Dems in 08 would ever vote this year for a Republican."
-Vahn1995
Apparently you suffer from a lack of imagination ... and an inability to read polls.
"It's really very simple - will the voters give back the majority to the party that got us in this mess by catering to the big bucks special interest or will we keep on trying to get out of the mess?"
-James
Absolutely not. Most folks despise the unions, trial lawyers, crony capitalists and their "progressive" lap dogs in Washington.
Looks like you hit a nerve. I love Teatard rage in the afternoon!
Regardless, even if the GObP does take over the House and Senate (which, BTW, I think they will) it will give them the tiniest of majorities. Just enough to take the blame but not enough for them to do anything. Then Dems, with the help of the latino, AA and youth support will win both houses back in 2012.
And if the Teatards are that stupid to nominet gingrich or the snowbillie, it'll make Obama's almost certain reelection a landslide and his coattails could be even longer.
So, yuk it up, teatards. You're laughter will be short.
Chuckster gives us a run down on the core constituencies of the Democrat party. He claims that the Black, Hispanic and Youth vote are going to turn out big and save the Dems from the train wreck around the bend. First of all - 95% of the Black vote? Where did he come up with that number? Many Blacks are disillusioned with the results of their support of Democrats. Somewhere between 70 and 80 percent nationally is possible - but 95%??? - come on! As to the Hispanic and Youth vote - both are overblown by the media and politicos to begin with and to the extent that they will vote - are by no means in the bag for Democrats. As a matter of fact, young people are being hit hard by the Dems pre-occupation with virtually anything else than sparking job growth.
If Blacks, Latinos and Youth are what Democrats are relying on to pull their bacon out of the fire - the carnage in November is going to be gruesome.
"And if the Teatards are that stupid to nominet..."
-TimPundit
Perhaps. But most of us know how to spell "nominate", genius.
Watch the party on Saturday, and try not to wet yourself in fear.
Is Dory Mason a real person?
The Reps have NOTHING to offer! No new plans to fix anything about the country. Just more of the same crap that got us in a lot of this mess. Not one Rep on national TV, even on Fox, have laid out any real plans. Just whine and point fingers - like good Kindergardeners.
I have no problem that 0bama spends most of his time on vacation or the golf course. In fact, the more the better for America.
Timpundit,
You may well be right...there is a risk that a victory for repubs in this election cycle may diminish their energy going into 2012...however..if the repubs were smart..and they probably are not..they would send a HCR repeal bill to the president every month between January 11 and November 2012. Every time Obama puts his veto on a bill to repeal HCR 70% of Americans will get angry all over again.
Kevin, I dont usually correct poster's english because it seems petty...but when you are trying to make fun of someone or put them down and you cant even spell "Kindergarteners" and instead spell a word that likely means "children gardners" or "child farmers"...it makes me wonder if you passed kindergarten.
I'd love to see the Republicans take over. I'm just scared s*&%less of Boehner being the Speaker. I just think he face and demeanor oozed a desire for revenge and revenge is not what we need. We need straight, pragmatic thinking conservatives, without a political agenda, to right this ship of state.
I just think his face and demeanor oozes a desire for revenge and revenge is not what we need.
Sorry for the bad typing.
If Republicans become RINOs, the Tea Party will throw them out next.
Keep dreaming ....don't worry we will WAKE YOU UP after the November election !!
I really hope the dems stay in power - reps had 8 years to put this nation in debt, and NOW everyone seems fit to talk about it? Suddenly it is the dems fault this economy sucks? It is going to take more than two years for obama to fix the huge mess w. made.
And as for those bills that "no one wants?" Well, here is at least one tax paying citizen who wants a public option, who wants cap and trade, who wants all those other wonderful reforms obama is putting into place - like credit card reform, student loan reform, health care reform, ect. He has done so much good for this country, but the reps don't want to acknowledge that, and on Faux News, they can smear him all they want, but in terms of policy, he has done more good for this country than any other president before him.
Sorry, young fellow, but the Dems are toast. America is still a center-right country, and will be for the forseeable future. This is the most radical leftist regime in history, and Obama is their lodestar. Any Dem that can be tied closely to Obama is finished.
I'm surprised that you missed the fact that the Democrats are going to have to pour much of that money in defending seats that they never have had to spend much defending. Boxer(CA), Feingold(WI), Murray(WA), Bennet(CO), Reid(NV-he has a lot and will need more), and Illinois(open-D). Now lets move on to the governships, it's going to take a lot of money to defend Democrat governors and open(D) seats such as NM from a bloodbath. Now on to the house which has too many seats at stake for the Dems to even begin listing here. There isn't enough money around the Dems to keep Pelosi as speaker, there just isn't enough!
Oooh look. Jay Cost just eviscerated Reid Wilson:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2010/08/will_money_save_the_democrats.html
Since "Big Joe" is predicting that Dems will keep the house and senate, I'm placing all my bets on the Repubs to become the majority party in both chambers.
Obama is delusional as well, he continues to use the “D” for Dems and “R” for Repubs in his car metaphor during his campaign speeches. To the 15 million unemployed Americans, the 55%-70% of Americans that think congress is doing a poor job and the 70% who don’t like the direction this “car” is headed, they are screaming for a new driver. Maybe, just maybe, the “D” doesn’t stand for what Obama thinks it stands for. To those Americans mentioned above, maybe the “D” stands for the following:
1. “D”eficit spending that will burden/suffocate future generations
2. “D”estruction of our capitalistic system and establishing a European socialistic system
3. “D”eception of the voters with unfulfilled promises of a more transparent and open government lead by a post-racial/partisan President who called himself a “healer and conciliator”
4. “D”isregard for the will of the people as exemplified by HC, immigration and mosque issues
5. “D”isbelief in the ability of the American people to take care of themselves and the
exceptionalism of this great country
While the “D”rive analogy sounds great in speeches, we should take a closer look at what “R” could stand for under the right leadership:
1. “R”ecovery of the economy to get people back to work
2. “R”evaluating the role of government in our daily lives
3. “R” ecognizing the will of the people and principles of our Constitution
4. “R”estricting entailments to those people who really need them (e.g. elderly, children, and disabled)
5. “R"efraining from calling everyone who has honest disagreements with your positions as a racist, bigot, radical, homophobe or religious zealot
As all great drivers/leaders know, sometimes you need to go in “R”everse in order to get yourself back on the right road that leads to the destination that you and your passengers set out for. It feels like we are currently being “driven” to a secret or unknown destination that only this administration knows how to get there. Thankfully the “sleeping giants” (American voters) in the back seat have awoken and their mad, motivated, engaged, and ready to remove the arrogant drivers.
Remember, don’t go back to sleep or doze off because the direction that this “car” will go in the future for you and the next generation will be determined by your votes in the November elections in 2010 and 2012. God bless America!!!
the line of special buses is forming in front of the capital and white house ready to return the retards back to wherever retarded dems come from.
Republicans are too stupid to notice---voters like them even less than they like Democrats.
"Well, here is at least one tax paying citizen who wants a public option, who wants cap and trade, who wants all those other wonderful reforms obama is putting into place - like credit card reform, student loan reform, health care reform, ect. He has done so much good for this country, but the reps don't want to acknowledge that, and on Faux News, they can smear him all they want, but in terms of policy, he has done more good for this country than any other president before him."
Nicole, I hope that you're a college student. Then, we can overlook your delusions. I'm sure that you're not a parent. Obama, and his Marxist regime, is dismantling our social and economic structure and passing on trillions in debt to our descendants. Anyone, or group, who would do that is without conscience, morals, ethics or soul.
Obama has done more to damage this country in less than two years than the previous presidents have in over two hundred years. Here's hoping that you and Obama move to Venezuela where I'm sure you both will be happy living in slums.
Looks like Queen Pelosi will hafta trade in her Boeing 747 for a bicycle for commuting after the election.
Then after 2012, Queen Michelle will hafta stop stuffing herself with lobster and just order peanut butter sandwiches. Oh and her 26 personal servants will need to go out and find real jobs.
Nicole, I am glad to see that they let you use a computer...you folks need to be entertained. I suspect that your institution does not allow a lot of tv. If it did you would know that the dems took back congress in the 2006 elections. Repubs did not have control for eight years. You may also know, had you read the Constitution, that it is Congress that controls the purse strings of the nation, not the president. Republican Congresses created the surplus of the 90s, not the president. When the dems took back Congress in January 2008 they inherited a 180 billion dollar deficit which they have now turned into a 1.4t dollar deficit. While I am certian, from your padded room, the idea of cap and trade looks, well, you probably dont have a window, but, if you had one, it would look very nice. But for people on the outside who have to work, passing a bill that would kill jobs simply because it would make Al Gore a lot of money seems a bit silly. Dont you worry your little head about such things though. When the doc comes by work on your own issues and mention that ole uncle Soggy thinks an increase in meds may be in order.
con sterling,
I am inclined to think the "d" Obama keeps talking about refers to "damn socialist".
Watch out repubs/tea baggers. The Dems may be the new "Silent Majority." With all of the nasty, obviously one-sided 'ack,ack ack' constantly coming out of the tabloid news programs, disgusted Dems like me may have a show of voting force and surprise all of you! Where is Max Headroom when we need him?!
Anonymous, your comma should be inside the quotation marks. Genius
I tune in and out of Fox News because one has to know the opposition views and plans. That said according to Beck if Immigration Reform is passed by Congress and signed by President Obama it would guarantee that the Democrats will control the White House and Congress for the next 60 years.
I believe that Beck is correct therefore it is time that African-Americans and Hispanic voters united and form a voting block. As a united block we will join other Americans who believe in equality and justice for all of America's citizen to get out the vote for Democratic candidates on November 2, 2010, and again in 2012.
Vera Richardson
"Their polling was wrong, and Critz is now a congressman."
-Reid Wilson
This is easily the most laughable part of Wilson's entire hypothesis. Wilson ran as a pro-life, anti-ObamaCare Conservative who happened to have a "D" after his name.
And this is why the Dims are safe from the Tea Partiers in 60 days? What a hoot!
Read why Reid Wilson is flat-out wrong: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2010/08/will_money_save_the_democrats.html
"Republicans are too stupid to notice---voters like them even less than they like Democrats."
-dottie
Dowdy is too stoopid to notice the Republicans' lead in the RCP Generic Congressional poll: 5% (The first time it has ever been this high for Republicans. Ever.)
Add to that the traditional 5% advantage in turnout for Republicans in mid term elections over the lazy Dims at home watching Oprah, and
You get a +10% tsunami favoring Republicans.
"I believe that Beck is correct therefore it is time that African-Americans and Hispanic voters united and form a voting block. As a united block we will join other Americans who believe in equality and justice for all of America's citizen..."
-Vera Richardson
I agree. It's time for clear-thinking minority voters to throw off the yoke of slavery and leave the Democrats' plantation of dependence and squalor.
Watch how many minority members will be in Glenn Beck's huge Tea Party bash on Saturday.
what a hoot! Does this guy really believe "senior Democratic strategists"? Take this wishful thinking and bottle it up, so that you can drown your sorrows with that bottle on election night.
I believe that Beck is correct therefore it is time that African-Americans and Hispanic voters united and form a voting block. As a united block we will join other Americans who believe in equality and justice for all of America's citizen to get out the vote for Democratic candidates on November 2, 2010, and again in 2012.
Vera Richardson
Vera Richardson | August 26, 2010 4:39 PM
walksxfile wrote, yo Vera, look around the country in areas and cities where dems have controlled for decades and you'll see hopeless people who depend on the gvt for practically everything. do you think this is a good thing, is that why you vote for dems. look at detroit, philly, nyc, st louis, etc, despair and hopelessness.
Regarding voter turnout comparisons in the primaries, I imagine every single living teapartier went out and voted. Probably most repubs voted too. After all, they are afraid of each other. But just wait for the general election. That's when you will see Dems turnout!
Wow, Reid sure kicked a hornet's nest of stupid, judging by the comments.
Where were all these idiots when Bush committed arson against the US Constitution, suspended habeas corpus, spied on his own citizenry, waged two wars based upon lies, ruined the economy and so much more? Deadly silent because they were gutless.
But now they want to punish the fire department for not fixing Bush's mess fast enough to suit their sense of entitlement? When these morons don't get their wish in November, which one will be the first to reach for a gun?
Judging by the utter freak out one reads on this message board, I think it will be incumbent on everyone who has a wingnut as a friend or family member to place on retainer psychiatrists & psychologists. Because if as I believe this analysis is spot on, there will be mass psychosis in the wingnut community. I have thought for some time now that not only are the Repubs going to be severely disappointed when their dreams of taking over both Houses of Congress does not come close to passing, imagine what their mental state will be if they actually end up losing sets in both of these Houses. Just saying, its not going to be pretty.
walksxfile, you mean the inner cities where corporations have pulled out jobs and shipped them overseas? Funny, I don't see big business doing anything for cities--excuse me, I meant United States cities. Somebody's got to help these poor people who can't even find a place to buy decent groceries. If it has to be the government, so be it.
Hot Air| Ah, sweet pessimism: Hotline explains why Dems will keep the House
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/08/26/ah-sweet-pessimism-hotline-explains-why-dems-will-keep-the-house/
All the right-wing comments on here are people from RedState. You shouldn't be commenting on a left-wing blog if you don't like it. Democrats will retain Congress because Bush blew it.
Anti-choice
Anti-gay
Anti-peace
Anti-America
If that isn't fascism, I don't know what is.
walksxfile, you mean the inner cities where corporations have pulled out jobs and shipped them overseas? Funny, I don't see big business doing anything for cities--excuse me, I meant United States cities. Somebody's got to help these poor people who can't even find a place to buy decent groceries. If it has to be the government, so be it.
PG | August 26, 2010 5:07 PM
walksxfile wrote....yo PG, the businesses moved out of the cities because they were being taxed to death by the liberals who ran them. these pols thought they could do whatever they wanted to these businesses and there was nothing they could do about it. well there was, they moved out to other places where they could get a return on the investments they made in thier companies. same with calif now, theyve destroyed thier business environment and all the businesses are leaving the state. and to have you know repubs arent much better. these 2 parties are destroying the country and in nov there is going to be cahnge people can really believe in.
Here's an idea- angry? Vote third-party or write-in candidate. America said no to Bush's policies in 2008, and we ought to do it again in 2010. Anyone but Republicans would do this country some good.
PG
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.
Thomas Jefferson
Here's an idea- angry? Vote third-party or write-in candidate. America said no to Bush's policies in 2008, and we ought to do it again in 2010. Anyone but Republicans would do this country some good.
Scott | August 26, 2010 5:43 PM
walksxfile wrote nice try scott, in a few cases 3rd party candidiates would be better than the aholes in both of these parties. but the pelosi, reid obama triumverate iis going to start being dismantled in nov and maybe we can get the gvt out of business and theyll start hiring again.
As usual the Republicans commenting on this post forget one thing. In poll after poll, the only group less popular than congressional Democrats are congressional Republicans. 1994 Republicans were significantly more poplar than the Dems in, and the Dems were ill prepared to be challenged. Now the Republicans are underfunded and less popular than the Dems, yet the Republican posters here seem to think the R's are a shoo-in. The Dems will lose a significant number of seats, but not the majority.
I'll be happy to see my state go solid Democrat this November. Even a GOP takeover from those rednecks down South won't spread their cancer to Connecticut. We're much more educated.
As usual the Republicans commenting on this post forget one thing. In poll after poll, the only group less popular than congressional Democrats are congressional Republicans. 1994 Republicans were significantly more poplar than the Dems in, and the Dems were ill prepared to be challenged. Now the Republicans are underfunded and less popular than the Dems, yet the Republican posters here seem to think the R's are a shoo-in. The Dems will lose a significant number of seats, but not the majority.
operadem | August 26, 2010 5:47 PM
walksxfile wrote... look at rasmussen today repubs are trusted more with all 10 of the top issues for voters in this election cycle. im no huge fan of repubs either but the dreaming of dems on here is kind of laughable. now of course rasmussen is a far right wing polling company, right?
GOP majorities mean nothing for an economy. Clinton did it in the 90's with a GOP Congress, and he managed to get good legislation through. The 2010 elections do nothing but guarantee Obama reelection, and give him more people to blame.
This guy doesn't have a clue...
Right-wingers, I'll tell you what will happen if the GOP takes Congress:
- Abortion will remain legal
- Marijuana will be legalized through the states
- We will not be going back to the Bush policies
- Obama will veto your bad bills
- Obama will be reelected in 2012, even if it means blaming a Republican Congress
FLASH! ALL candidates who are Constitutional conservatives for small government and no/less taxes and spending, do NOT need money for anything except NAME RECOGNITION. The Americans will take care of that, whether he is D or R or I or L.
I am going to keep this article and I hope all you Obama hater don't jump of a bridge to your death when the GOP may even lose sits. Thanks to the media CNN, and Fox what do they know...Ha Ha...See you in November if you are still alive...Right blame this administration for everything. The America of Hater.....
this is not a pipe dream. This is a crack pipe dream.
Mr Reid-are you actually the soon to-be ex fearful George Soros "leader" in the Senate? You sure sound like disgraceful Harry. Heck, even his son wont use his name while running for governor of Nevada(and losing to a HISPANIC republican). Or did Soros or Al Jazeera pay you for such a thoughtless anal assist?
And above all, don't forget all the thousands of people who have voted the straight Democratic ticket since the day they died. :-)
Enjoyed the article. It's right on the money. Republicans can't be trusted. They ruined our economy, spent FAR too much and are hate filled towards women and minorities.
Glad the Democrats are going to hold both the House and Senate. Our country can't handle any more destruction by the hands of Republicans.
@Ozzie - Bush is no longer in office. Think about it.
All you have to do is read the vitrol from the Right on this site to understand how hateful they can be. The Tea Party will do what Mr. Perot did to the Republicans. Split the party, and with the RNC saying in public, moderate Republicans are doomed, should tell you all this race is FAR from over.
Remember, the Dem's are not responsible for this economy, two wars, massive spending, et al. They may just be having a hard time correcting it, but the decent average American citizen doesnt blame THIS President for our countries current problems. i.e, Imagine what whould have happened if the right got their way and SS was privitized?
It would be like Soylent Green.
If Nobody wants anything to change vote for a Demo-rat I don't think the people in this Country Are that Stupid Europe will be Comming here along with its Socialistic Policies if the White House is not a Balanced in Power. Mike
Hotline runs a real risk of losing its credibility with a silly analysis like this -- and was it deliberately ginned up to counter the Politico story about Dem insiders getting really scared?
Sure, money, local conditions and candidate qualities give many Dems the opportunity to hold their seats or even win some open ones in an anti-Dem wave. But the likelihood is that such factors can only keep the GOP wave from swamping almost everyone and adding 70, 80, even 90 new GOP Representatives. The combination of generic ballot polls, Obama's dismal and declining approvals, the preponderance of local and state polls to date (most of which don't yet even try to factor in the enthusiasm gap), extraordinary levels of independent defection from the Dems, the worsening instead of improving economy, and the totally consistent opposition to Obamacare after many months all -- all -- point to a huge GOP year, one that easily adds 39 seats to the GOP side. Macro factors have to change to avert that outcome -- in 67 days. Anyone counting on that at this point is clueless.
In fact, I'd go so far as to say that the Dems should concentrate their money advantage more on a smaller universe of seats that really can be saved with extra dough, rather than spreading it around to everyone "endangered."
Good luck, loser
@John Burke - The GOP won't get 39 seats in the House, not even close. Most estimates show around 4 to 7 House Seats for the Repubs.
Americans all know the current economic problems were caused by Bush, so they don't blame Obama at all. Plus, there will be a huge Dem turn out since they don't want to go backwards and rehire the same people that damaged our country.
Do Mr. Wilson & the Democrat braintrust actually think that turnout is dependent upon money? That's a real knee-slapper. You can't gin up enthusiasm with $20 bills, free rides to the polls or a bottle of cheap wine for the bum on the corner to come pull the lever for the candidate with the "D" next to his/her name. The Democrats had momentum and enthusiasm the past 2 national elections, but that has petered out as the rhetoric of Mr. Obama & Ms. Pelosi has been laid bare by the harsh realities of economics. We can't buy our way out of the current economic troubles, and endebting our granchildren in order to create slush funds for the Speaker and her pals has not won the hearts and minds of the vast middle of American politics (i.e. "independents"/"moderates"). The swing voters have done swung, and come November the Democrats are going to be in serious trouble. They may keep the Senate, but the House is gone. Delude yourself all you want. Nothing short of history's greatest "October Surprise" can save the folks who've been carrying water for Barak Obama for the past 2 years.
Obama needs to wise up and steal Bill Clinton's playbook from 1995. He turned around what should have been certain defeat in 1996 into an easy victory over Grampa Dole. Tack right until you run aground. The radical Left wing nonsense is getting the Dems nowhere with the "vast middle", and you can't get re-elected without them.
I can understand your points, but you failed to mention another very important aspect of the mid-term elections - the Democrats have no plan for fixing the immediate domestic problems with the economy. Directly related to the current economic slump is the population's lack of confidence in the Democrat's vision that has proven expensive and unproductive. No plan, coupled with no public confidence equals bad outcome in November.
Heh, you have been unintentionally funny here. The big problem for democrats is that their left's ideas are toxic to human society. They are the infomercial guys selling you crap for the unbelievable price of zero dollars! Striving for better things with your own gumption gets you somewhere. Getting things for free sets a human being back and prevents him or her from reaching full potential. The democrats nowadays seem to be playing the old card of 'i'll give you this for free' to garner votes from humans (all humans) who are wired to get everything they can as cheaply as they can. So the lab rats push the button. But in doing so, they are only harming their own humanity. Liberal offers are only keeping us subservient to others. The only things we are proud of are things we earn fairly. It's hard for all of us to resist that infomercial, but we really do know better.
@ES - The Democrats have no plan? Don't be misinformed. The Stimulus plan has worked well so far and has only been 50% spent. You mean the Republicans have no plan, that's why they are so hated in America right now. They have become the Party of "No We Can't", which isn't a good slogan.
The Republicans are less popular than the Democrats don't forget and even further less popular than Obama. So while everyone is in a funk, the Republicans are a one way ticket to a depression since they are so bad with money & vision.
Here is a chart showing why we won't elect Republicans.
National Political Debt Chart
http:/www.lafn.org/gvdc/Natl_Debt_Chart.html
-
Voters forget that voting someone out, means voting someone else in... NO REPUBLICANS.
As someone who isn't particularly excited about the prospect of a Republican government, I have to say that it's almost a given that the GOP will take the House, and the Senate is a toss up right now.
Reid -- For heaven's sake, knock over the bong and what's left of the kool-ade.
You left out the most important point for voters, Republican and Democrat alike, to consider this Nov. In spite of all this "the Repubs drove us into a ditch" stuff, the folks AT THE WHEEL NOW are driving us all further into the swamp to the point we'll drown.
The Repubs may not be perfect, but at least with them, we'll be better off.
The Republicans are so funny, when the economy is good you say let’s all celebrate “Cinco de Mayo, my brothers” but when the economy is down “it’s all your fault, you damn immigrant”. When most Americans (with Latin America roots) go to the polls this November we will remember that the GOP has gone on a nationwide rant in proposing and passing several anti-immigration legislation (that our US Courts continue to strike down) and have continue to blame the immigrant for the flat economy or worse. We will remember who stands with us and who stands against us, so trying to stop it now is somewhat funny, but go ahead, you will not change our minds. Plus the more radical of the GOP are now attacking our Constitution and our Bill of Rights, in a misguided attempt to garner some much needed votes, they really are fools, and leading the GOP towards obscurity because they are no longer a party of ideas, just of empty suits. Your hate made you do it, in November; you will reap what you have sown. I wonder what Abraham Lincoln would say about todays GOP, he unlike the current GOP was a man of ideas.
@FloridaJoe55 -
"The Repubs may not be perfect, but at least with them, we'll be better off"
What kind of comment is that? The Republicans are the primary reason things aren't perfect right now... so why in the world would you want to rehire them and make things even worse?
Your comment makes no logical sense.
Republicans will be out of power for decades. Look at all the hot air thats coming from that political party.
Americans will say "H*ll No" to the right wing this fall when they are reminded of the years 2000 - 2008.
Recession Republicans
These guys stand up for BP, Big Banks, and are funded up the wazoo by foreign owned media interests - Wahabi muslim fundamentalist Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal and Rupert Murdoch. Wonder if there's any connection among all three? Oil (Wahabi muslim fundamentalist Alwaleed Bin Talal), big banks (Alwaleed also owns a huge stake in Citigroup), and right wing media attacking Democrats (Wahabi muslim fundamentalist Alwaleed Bin Talal)? The Republican party is the willing lapdog of Muslim fundamentalists.
Wishful thinking. Keep on whistling past the graveyard.
Typically, name calling is the first tool of the person who has lost the argument turns to. Call them neaderthals, call them hicks, call them Teatards.
It does seem that the left has lost the argument. The public majorities in terms of major issues indicate widespread disappointment in the hope and change agenda of Mr Obama.
And while the political class looks at these majorities as the ranting of a lesser class of people, these people vote. And the polls today
point to a shockingly large surge of anger at what is percieved as a too socialist agenda.
Faux News is not even American owned. How can these a-holes believe the crap coming from them. Repubs dont love America only money. Say NO to the party of No in Nov. I am voting straight Dem ticket cause I dont want those crazies in office.
Obama-Biden 2012 just makes good sense. Repubs ran the car in the ditch and now they want the keys back. NO NO NO in NOV.
"Republicans will be out of power for decades."
HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA!
You people are hilarious! See you November 3 when the Dims have been stomped!
Keep on thinking that and it may come true. I want what you are drinking/smoking.
So many people in our country are anti-republican right now that i can't see them winning much in the fall. It's like a big wave that wants to keep them out of all government affairs since they always goof things up.
@Beatrice - I didn't understand your comment, yes, sure, Republicans won't be out for decades, but they have little chance of gaining control for the next decade because of the damaged they caused.
There is no indication that Repubs will gain in November. They might pick up 10 seats in the House, but Dems will retain a 29 seat advantage. And Repubs can no longer win the Senate because the tea party person in NV has already lost to Reid. So the Dems might even pick up a seat there.
So it's looking good for America if we keep the Rebumlicans out.
Mr. Wilson, I am one Hispanic that would fight in the streets to keep the democrat/progressives out of office. They are to this republic, what cancer is to the human body. The only only thing worst than a democrat/progressive is a Muslim.
@Juan Coronado - Liar!
No hispanics are for Republican, your post was 100% fake.
You have no idea of whats coming in November.
@Sally Tobas, No Hispanics are for Republicans?
You've got to be kidding - or listening to way too much liberal spin.
For one, my wife is Hispanic and she is far more conservative and Republican than me.
Then look at people like Marco Rubio.
Or better yet, have a look on twitter at the number of Hispanics active on TCOT or have a look at the Republican National Hispanic Assembly.
I could add more - but perhaps you should do your own research instead of believing everything you hear.
@Keith - i have a very clear picture of how Nov is shaping up, and it's easy to see every tea party candidate will kill off any republican chances and elect the democrat.
so as a country we have nothing to worry about since dems are better at governing and obviously more conservative with money.
yes, hispanics are conservative, so that's why they vote over 70% democratic.
yes, Rublio is a mess and no longer is a possible winner. anyone that is involved with the tea party is an automatic loss in the nation's eyes.
yes, i'm glad you are starting to understand the current situation, everyone is against republicans in this cycle.
You, like the rest of the demonrat politicos, are living in the "pre-meltdown" era.
Your logic and arguments would have been worth consideration then; but not now.
The takeover of the House in November 2010 by the Republicans will be historic. However, it WILL NOT be a MANDATE for the Republican Party. It will be a REPUDIATION of the Democratic Party and their Leftist crap.
Money can't buy me love, say The Beatles. It's voters who will decide who stays and who goes in Congress, and Democratic voters, liberals and progressives feel dejected, rejected, and so angry that the economy has not improved overnight that they are very likely to say: "scr*w it! I'm not voting in November." So, yes, Republicans will win because they're the only ones who feel like voting. Conservative voters are all fired up with hatred toward any human being other than ultra-wealthy, conservative, Old Testament-shouting "christians" who want to force their hatred and ideas onto the public at large, and even endanger our country by promoting hatred among people of other countries who already hate us. They will repeal Roe v Wade and force raped women to have their rapists babies. They would rather the woman die than save her life. So much for right to life. "Small government". HA! They will vote to keep taxing the middle class while they will extend permanently the tax breaks for the wealthy. But they have all the people convinced that it will give them jobs. People don't get it! Republicans lie, cheat, steal elections, and will steal power just so they can tell you who to be and how to think. Is that what voters want?
About 75 or 80 Democratic Congress will lose the House seat in November. We wanted to see Nancy Pelosi lose her job as the Speaker of the House in 2011.
@ml - Thanks for the funny comment. 75 to 80 seats lost? that's hilarious! a more realistic number is 4 to 7 seats lost.
We already know the Dems will retain the House and Senate, we just don't know by how many. Worst case is the Dems will lose about 22, but at this point the Dem will keep the House and Pelosi can continue to help America recover from the Bush error.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know we had 8 years of Republican control only to bring this country down. If anyone, be it a teabagger, independent, dem or republican, call yourself whatever you want to, honestly believes a republican can save anyone's day, they are the most delusional people on the planet.
The Republicans are once again going down. Americans are fed up with their lies and the current economy. We will never trust Republicans again since they always screw things up.
Obama has done extremely well so far, so let's support him as we dig out of the Republican quagmire.
"Republicans have recruited a number of candidates who have never sought office and are largely undefined."
LOL. Yeah, like the bunch of highly-experienced, highly-entrenched democrat bandits and thieves who now hold office are just what we need to keep in office. For God's sake, we wouldn't want to replace them with ... gasp! ... people with NO experience, would we?
* What inexperienced idiots could EVER replace mental giants like Harry Reid and Nancy Peloski? (my nominees: Laurel & Hardy)
* What inexperience dope would force Congress critters to vote for something they weren't allowed to read?
* What inexperienced moron could possibly craft better tax legislation than our beloved Charlie Rangel?
* What innocent rube republican could hand out scholarships to relatives more surreptitiously than pillar-of-honesty Eddie Bernice Johnson?
* What inexperienced dolt could put a happy face on the loss of 36,00 jobs like Reid?
* What inexperienced republican dope could force our financial institutions to give loans to people who can't pay it back and then claim innocence when the country freefalls into financial ruin?
Please, oh please, do NOT vote for someone who has never run anything in his life, and whose only job in life was something really dumb, like "community organizer."
Pardon me while I step back to laugh my butt off. I'll be back with you in a bit.
I have to say that your article is well laid out and provoked some thought in me. That is far more than the three brainless types on MSNBC (Maddow, Matthews and ESPECIALLY Olberman). They insist that the Congress is going to stay in Democrat hands. However, their reasons are all emotion based devoid of substantial, logical facts. You at least pointed out some items that are legitimate. However, in the end, I have to have faith in the people of this country that they will be out in November to turn the Congress over. I am not thrilled with Republicans (being an independent conservative myself). I just want Obama / Reid / Pelosi stopped - they are destroying this country piece by piece.
Go Obama!
@DilbertW01 - Be aware that it's unlikely Congress will revert back to Republicans. Obama, Reid & Pelosi have put America back on track, so everyone in the nation respects that effort and won't make the mistake to hand it back to the party that caused all the problems in the first place.
The Dems will easily keep the Senate, and they'll keep the House by about 30 seats. The Dems are builders, success orientated and frugal, so we wouldn't want the country destroyed again by the Republicans.
Hey Reid, you know smoking that stuff is illegal. And to be stoned while your writing is very unprofessional.
Hey Jon Mathis...
Dems will keep the house by "about 30 seats"? You need to get on real clear politics website, look up "Election 2010", then go get a Republican to help you with the big words.
Also, get a dictionary and look up the meaning of the words "frugal" and "success". I think you'll be shocked.
Republicans will win, and then that will be the last vicotry for the angry white male party. Demographics is destiny. You can't deport all the brown people, they are soon going to be half the population, and they don't vote for the party who continually spews hate retoric, and urinates on the poor.
@IUT Yes, Real Clear shows what I'm talking about, it seems to be a "pro incumbent" cycle in 2010. And with the Tea Party electing Democrats in every race they are strong in... it "clearly" shows our nation will be safe from Republicans for 2-12 more years.
Yes, the Dems are much more frugal than Repubs, (over 80% of the current debt was made by Repubs) plus Dems have led us back to success faster than anyone expected.
So thanks for the comment!
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I hope the American people do not forget that it was the Republicans who destroyed our country and ran it into the ground all to help their wealthy cronies get wealthier on the backs of the middle class. It was the Republicans who put us in a deep whole and Obama and the Democrats are doing a great job in trying to pull us out. Let's not let the Republicans put us back deeper and deeper into the hole.
The Repiglickin fools and retards making ridiculously ignorant comments here will have some cryin' to do in their beer after election day...there is absolutely NO WAY the Repigs win 50 seats in the House or 10 in the Senate, it'd be mathematically imposssible even if the Repigs were considered saints, which they ain't! Sweet holy baby jeebus, the stoopid MUST hurt! (ask $carah Palin, she'l tell you. also :) At least 50% of REAL Americans know it was the drunken Repigs who drove 'Merka into the ditch with Bush/ Cheney/ Boner/ McConnel in charge and the same Repig morons are still there!
As an independent I don't like democrats. I don't love Republicans either, but facts are facts.Very few people would suggest that democrats are going to keep both the house and the senate... Just the intelligent enough to see the facts. Republicans are shooting their own feet. Democrats will hold the house and the senate... and they will be there for many, many years unless the GOP change completly. I used to be McCain suporter, but not anymore. I need to see some common sense dressed in red.