September 2010

Democrats see a shake-up in their leadership in the House if the party loses control, but Republicans may be more forgiving if the GOP fails to win majorities, according to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

This week, Members of Congress in both parties were asked who would be their leader in the House if their party was in the minority after the midterm election. Among the 35 Democrats who responded this week, almost two thirds - 63% -- said the job would like fall to their current number 2, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). Only 31% expected Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to remain as the top House Democrat if the party loses power. "If we're in the minority, there may be a desire to change the team," said one Democratic Congressional Insider.

But another noted that if Democrats lose control, the casualties are more likely to be moderate Democrats who are thought to be more partial to Hoyer. The Democratic Insider said, "The caucus will most likely be a more liberal caucus, and her supporters will dominate the discussion."

Updated, 7:08 p.m.

The DSCC has canceled some ad reservations in Kentucky, a likely sign that the Democratic committee is re-evaluating whether it is worth spending money there this year.

A Republican source who monitors ad buys told Hotline On Call that the DSCC has canceled reservations there for next week. The DSCC had reserved about $292K worth of air time during that time span.

The move may indicate that Democrats view the race between AG Jack Conway (D) and ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) as moving outside their grasp.

It is worth noting, however, the Democrats reserved $1.6M in Kentucky and have yet to go on the air there. Therefore, the DSCC is not completely pulling out of the state. They could still use their later reservations to air ads.

The DSCC declined to comment on its ad buy strategy.

The cancellation is another indication that the DSCC is re-evaluating its spending strategy as some states that were believed to be sure things have become increasingly competitive. Earlier Wednesday, the DSCC reserved air time in Connecticut, a state the was firmly in the Democratic column at the beginning of the cycle. The DSCC reserved $250K in Connecticut, roughly the same amount it is canceling in Kentucky.

The cancellation also comes a day after the DSCC unexpectedly went up in West Virginia, a sign that that race has also tightened.

Not all the news this week has been bad for Democrats, though. In Washington and California -- two races that looked like pick up opportunities for the GOP just a month ago -- Sens. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Barbara Boxer (D-CA) appear to be opening up leads in recent polls.

UPDATE 7:08 p.m.: The DSCC now appears to be back up in Kentucky next week. A Democratic source says the ad buy is now there.

One Republican source said the DSCC has reached out to stations after canceling their buys for the week of Oct. 5.

"They canceled their Oct. 5 buys," a different Republican media buyer said. "But, they are still on the books for Oct. 12 through the election."

That media buyer explained that the DSCC may have tried to re-reserve time on those stations but at this point it is impossible to tell; the stations are closed for the day.

"They could have placed orders that are sitting in sales people's inboxes right now," the buyer said.

Calls and emails to all of the major stations in Kentucky have gone unreturned.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) may have guided Democrats to their majority in the House of Representatives, but according the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll, many of her colleagues are not looking to her to help them win their own races this year.

This week, 35 Democratic Members of Congress responded to the poll. They were asked whom they would like to have campaign for them in the fall and given a list of 6 options: Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Pelosi and "none of the above." Told they could pick as many surrogates as they wanted, former President Clinton was picked by 83% of the Democratic Members, followed by Biden, Obama and the First Lady with 72%. Only 39% of those who responded to the poll had Pelosi on their list of surrogates. Another 11% chose the none-of-the-above option.

The popularity of Clinton shows the respect that Democrats have for his political talents, but it's ironic that he's once again so popular in his party. Just a few years ago, the former president was derided by many Democrats who felt that his criticism of then Sen. Barack Obama when he was running against then Sen. Hillary Clinton for the '08 Democratic presidential nomination was over the top and tone deaf to the realities in the party.

A new Gallup Poll released Thursday underscored the possibility that the '12 Republican presidential race could divide the GOP along the same lines of class and education that defined the '08 Democratic contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Overall, the survey, conducted Sept. 25 and 26 among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, found former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) leading the field, with Romney attracting 19% and Palin 16%. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) (12%), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) (9%), and Texas Rep. Ron Paul (R) (7%) filled out the next tier, with a crush of other candidates, including governors Tim Pawlenty (R) of Minnesota, Haley Barbour (R) of Mississippi , Mitch Daniels (R) of Indiana and Sen. John Thune (R) of South Dakota, all congregating around 2% support.

The most revealing result in the survey, though, may have been the sharp educational divide between the support for Romney and Palin, according to detailed findings from the poll provided to National Journal by Gallup.

Among potential GOP primary voters without a college degree, Palin ran about even with Romney: she drew 19% and he attracted 17%, a difference within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4%. But among potential primary voters with at least a 4-year college degree, Romney held a commanding advantage, leading Palin by 24% to 11%. Potential GOP primary voters with post-graduate degrees preferred Romney over Palin by almost 3 to 1.

Neither Huckabee, Gingrich nor Paul showed nearly as much variation in their support between Republicans with and without college degrees.

Though Democrats appear heading for significant congressional losses in November, they may have reason to celebrate when the results of targeted gubernatorial contests come in on election night.

In 3 of the "Big Four" governor's races this year, the Democratic candidates are holding leads in recent polling. The leads suggest that the governor's races, which are typically insulated from national waves, are the Democrats best hope for claiming victory this year.

Democrats in California and New York have leads according to the most recent polling while Florida is slightly closer. Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen Reports both released polls on 9/22, with Mason-Dixon showing state CFO Alex Sink (D) up by 7 points and Rasmussen Reports - which conducts its surveys with automated callers -- put businessman Rick Scott (R) up 6.

Meanwhile in Texas, Gov. Rick Perry (R) tops former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) outright 46% to 39% in a race that Perry has led every step of the way. (Democrats, it should be noted, believe this race is closing and that Perry is very vulnerable.)

While those 4 states naturally receive the outsized media coverage, Democrats are hurting in the next 4 biggest states. Their gubernatorial candidates are trailing significantly in Illinois, Pennsylvania and Michigan and Gov. Ted Strickland (D) is in the fight for his political life in Ohio as former Rep. John Kasich (R) has led the last 20 polls, according to Pollster.

Fresh off allegations that she knowingly employed an undocumented worker, former eBay CEO and California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman (R) is now facing a $5M independent expenditure campaign targeting Latino voters.

The SEIU launched the campaign on Thursday, which includes a TV ad that is in Spanish. The $5M investment represents the largest IE campaign targeting Latino voters ever.

The announcement comes a day after Whitman's former housekeeper, Nicky Diaz, alleged that Whitman knew she was an illegal immigrant during the 9 years she worked for Whitman. Whitman vehemently denied the charges on Wednesday and released Diaz's application materials - including copies of an allegedly falsified Social Security card and Driver's License.

The ad charges that Whitman is targeting illegal immigrants for political gain. Here's the transcript translated into English.

"Meg Whitman says she's a different kind of Republican...But Pete Wilson is in charge of her campaign. Whitman attacks undocumented workers to win votes, but an undocumented woman worked in her home for 9 years. She says she'll create jobs -- but wants to eliminate 40K jobs, including teachers and nurses. Whitman says one thing in Spanish -- and something different in English. The real Meg Whitman has no shame. She's a two-faced woman."

The campaign will also include radio and online ads, as well as field operations.

SEIU's efforts are another reminder of how volatile an issue immigration is in California. Most problematic for Whitman is the fact that most Republicans who have won statewide carry about a third of the Latino vote. This campaign is clearly designed to make sure she doesn't reach that mark.

Check out the ad below.

The DSCC has purchased $250K in TV time aimed at shoring up what was once seen as a guaranteed winning seat in Connecticut, according to sources who watch the state's ad market.

The buy will bolster AG Dick Blumenthal (D), whose once-dominant lead has shrunk to single digits, according to recent public and private polling.

The DSCC has purchased 10 days of TV time, running from Oct. 1 to Oct. 11, in the Hartford media market, the sources said. DSCC spokespeople did not immediately return calls seeking comment, but the committee has refused to discuss their ad buys in the past.

Blumenthal once led former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) by wide margins, but McMahon has spent millions running ads touting her candidacy. The latest reliable survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, shows Blumenthal leading by a tiny 49%-46% margin, making the race one of the most competitive in the country.

Blumenthal's lead has also dropped as revelations about his service during the Vietnam War came to light. Republicans have accused Blumenthal of overstating his time in the military and suggesting, erroneously, that he served overseas.

Progressive groups have made Sen. Russ Feingold's difficult re-election bid a top priority, raising more than $600K for the Wisconsin Democrat in the last four days.

MoveOn.org, the liberal blog FireDogLake.com and Democracy For America are behind the fundraising, which will be funneled directly to Feingold's war chest. Feingold is currently locked in a tight race against businessman Ron Johnson (R).

Feingold has always been something of a hero to the left because of his strong stance on campaign finance reform, among other issues.

"These numbers show that -- despite claims of an enthusiasm gap -- progressives are stepping up in a big way for leaders like Russ Feingold," said Ilyse Hogue, MoveOn.org's communications director. "Our members give what they can -- $10, $20 at a time -- because we recognize what's at stake: Without these heroes beating back the agenda of multinational corporations and their Republicans cronies, we're never going to get an economy that works for the middle class and American jobs here at home."

Feingold needs the money. He has $3M in his campaign account, but Johnson has been raising money at a fast clip and has shown he is willing to dip into his own personal fortune.

The fundraising for Feingold is ongoing, so the donations are still coming in. MoveOn.org has raised $485K in 24 hours, while FireDogLake has raised at least $30K and Democracy For America has brought in about $120K.

Johnson looked to be a longshot when he entered the race and has taken Feingold by surprise. And Feingold has good reason to be worried; he has trailed Johnson in the most recent polling.

See Also: Ron Johnson's Path To Victory

Russ Feingold's Path To Victory

Updated, 11:56 a.m.

Time magazine is reporting that one of the president's top aides was the target of a racist extremist who shot and killed a guard at Washington's Holocaust Museum in '09.

According to the magazine, the shooter, James Van Brunn, who died after he was shot in the museum incident, had Obama's adviser David Axelrod as one of his targets.

Axelrod was assigned a Secret Service security detail, according to the story written by veteran journalist Barton Gellman. After the Holocaust shooting, law enforcement authorities discovered that Axelrod was a target, according to Time which writes: "The President was too hard to reach, in Von Brunn's view, but that was of no consequence. 'Obama was created by Jews,' he wrote. "Obama does what his Jew owners tell him to do."

Through an aide, Axelrod declined to comment to Hotline On Call on the alleged assassination plot.

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is going up with two distinctive ads on Thursday in her write-in re-election campaign, including one that takes aim at the Tea Party Express.

The ads are the second and third ads of Murkowski's general election campaign against attorney Joe Miller (R) and Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D). Since losing to Miller in the primary, Murkowski has been searching for ways to to wage a successful write-in bid.

One of the new ads is best described as a grudge ad, targeting the Tea Party Express, which spent big in the primary on Miller's behalf.

"Wait, the Tea Party Express?" a man says. "Isn't that the same California group that dumped half a million in Joe Miller's campaign?"

"Well, whose Senate seat would it be? Alaska's or California's?" a woman adds.

"So they are going to come up here and dump another dirty money bomb on Alaska and try to take our seat?" adds another.

The other ad takes place in a classroom and a teacher instructs voters how to write-in "Lisa Murkowski" on the ballot. "Now remember," the professor says, "you must fill in the oval, and spell Senator Murkowski's name correctly."

Good Thursday Morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: The DNC transfers another $4.9M to state and campaign committees, 60 Plus doubles down in key House races and Pres. Obama raises funds in D.C. while Biden heads to Nebraska and New Mexico.

DNC Delivers Dough: The DNC has transferred another $4.9M to its state and campaign committees as part of its political efforts this year.

The transfers are part the $50M pledge the DNC made as part of its "Vote 2010" program. A good chunk of that money -- $20M -- is cash being transferred to state committees as well as the DSCC and DCCC. So far, the DNC has transferred nearly $14.7M.

The moves highlight the Democrats' significant fundraising advantage over the RNC, an advantage that they believe will significantly boost their get-out-the-vote efforts. At the end of August, the DNC had $13.4M in its bank accounted compared to the RNC's $4.7M.

The DNC gave $1.7M to both the DSCC and DCCC and has given $4.8M to each committee throughout this year. The DSCC has also received $2M from Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) this year.

Last month, the DNC Hotline On Call reported that the DNC transferred the same amount to the DSCC and DCCC.

The states that received the latest transfers from the DNC all have marquee governor's races this year. The DNC contributed $325K to Florida, where state CFO Alex Sink (D) is running in a close gubernatorial race against businessman Rick Scott (R). Florida will also be pivotal for Pres. Obama's re-election prospects in '12. So far, the DNC has transferred $1.3M to Florida -- by far the most of any state.

The DNC also transferred money to the following states: Georgia ($400K), New Mexico ($250K), Minnesota ($250K), Connecticut ($125K), Maryland ($125K) and Rhode Island ($100K).

60 Plus Doubles Down: The 60 Plus Association, a conservative senior organization, is going up on Thursday with another wave of ads, targeting three House Democrats: Rep. Chris Carney (D) in PA 10, Rep. Tim Bishop (D) in NY 01 and Scott Murphy (D) in NY 20.

The ads are carbon copies of other ads the group is airing in districts across the country. They target incumbent Democrats for voting for health care reform and, in the process, tie the Democrats to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

"We warned Tim Bishop not to do it," the narrator says. "Not to vote for a big government health care bill. One that costs a trillion dollars, raises taxes and cuts $500B from Medicare. But Tim Bishop sided with Nancy Pelosi anyway."

60 Plus has purchased about $1M worth of air time over four weeks in these districts.

Bishop ad: http://bit.ly/bBInGI
All of 60 Plus' ads: http://bit.ly/cwl05o

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) trails attorney Joe Miller by 2% in her write-in re-election campaign, according to a new poll out Wednesday.

The CNN/Time magazine survey of 927 likely voters found Miller leading 38% to 36% with Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) pulling 22%.

The poll shows that Murkowski has a shot to pull off a historic write-in campaign, something no senator has done since Strom Thurmond in 1954.

It is, however, difficult to replicate the write-in process in a poll. In this survey, voters were asked if they would vote for McAdams, Miller "or would you write in the name of Lisa Murkowski?" In the voting booth, voters won't have option of selecting Murkowski -- they'll have to recall her name on their own.

Notably, Murkowski is pulling voters from every party, suggesting that she is taking support from both McAdams and Miller. Among Democrats, she earned 39% to McAdams' 55%, and 32% of Republicans to Miller's 63%. Murkowski pulled a plurality -- 38% -- among independents.

The survey was conducted Sept. 24-28 and has a margin of error of +/- 3%.

In states without a governor's race or Senate race at the top of the ballot, Democrats are worried about a nightmare scenario: A turnout gap so large that even some of the most battle-tested House Democrats could get swept out.

Republicans are increasingly confident that they have an advantage in picking up House seats in these states. In 3 states with marquee House races - Virginia, New Jersey and Mississippi -House races are virtually the only elections on the ballot, as the state legislature races in these states occurred last year. That means there won't be the same influx of spending in these states, airwaves won't be as dominated by political ads and turnout is expected to be significantly lower.

"You just have the power of the congressional race driving turnout," said political analyst Rhodes Cook. "You would expect turnout to be lower."

And Republicans see advantages in low turnout. They say low turnout means motivated turnout, which this year, looks like a plus for Republicans.

"These guys are naked on the ballot," said former Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), who chaired the NRCC from '98 to '02. "That means that angry people tend to turn out. In a rebellious year, it makes a challenger's task a little easier."

Virginia is probably the state where this will matter most. Republicans have a shot at Democratic Reps. Glenn Nye (02), Tom Perriello (05), Rick Boucher (09) and Gerry Connolly (11). In Mississippi, Rep. Travis Childers (D-1) is a top pick up opportunity for the GOP, and Rep. Gene Taylor (D-04) has also recently come on the Republicans' radar screen. In New Jersey, the GOP's top target is Rep. John Adler (D-03), but Reps. Rush Holt (D-12) and Frank Pallone (D-06) are also second tier targets that Republicans believe could be vulnerable in a wave year.

Republicans also say that no statewide race means labor unions and other third party groups will spend less in these states and that Democratic House candidates will not be able to take advantage of the field operation built by Pres. Obama's '08 campaign.

Davis noted, however, that there is still an onus on Republican campaigns to organize well-funded field operations. "A challenger needs to throw money into the campaign so voters know there is a race," Davis said. But, he added, it's not going to take much to stir up Republicans this year.

Democrats acknowledge that low turnout presents a challenge and they have recently taken steps to try to rev up their voters. Obama has led the charge, telling Democrats to "buck up" and holding rallies this week designed to motivate young voters to get to the polls.

From a micro perspective, Democrats also insist that a lack of a top of the ticket statewide race provides them some advantages in a very Republican atmosphere. They say that no Senate or gubernatorial race helps House Democrats localize races. In states with statewide races, all the political oxygen is being taken up, making it hard for House candidates to break through.

"You don't have to fight with the top of the ticket in terms of attention and the political environment," said John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster who is working on Childers' campaign. "You can really make it about your branding. You can parochialize the race."

Democrats also readily acknowledge that in some states, House candidates would rather not be tied to struggling top of the ticket campaigns. In Illinois and Iowa, for example, Govs. Pat Quinn (D) and Chet Culver (D) are trailing their Republican challengers by double digits and are likely to be a drag on the chances of House Democrats.

Liz Chadderon, a Democratic direct mail consultant from Virginia, noted that in states where there are gubernatorial and Senate contests ads have already been on the air for months, pushing voters to choose who they will vote for early. In states where there is no statewide contest, the percentage of undecided voters will likely stay higher for longer, giving Democrats more time to make their case.

"If we had a big Senate race that was blowing up the airwaves," she said, "voters would already have picked sides."

The endorsement getting the most attention right now in California is actually a non-endorsement. In a fairly scathing editorial, the reliably liberal San Francisco Chronicle declined to endorse in the Senate race between former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D).

Many California newspapers are now trying to endorse before early voting begins -- and with early voting starting on 10/4, the Chronicle's editorial was timed to have an impact.

"Californians are left with a deeply unsatisfying choice for the U.S. Senate this year," the editorial begins. "The incumbent, Democrat Barbara Boxer, has failed to distinguish herself during her 18 years in office. There is no reason to believe that another six-year term would bring anything but more of the same uninspired representation. The challenger, Republican Carly Fiorina, has campaigned with a vigor and directness that suggests she could be effective in Washington -- but for an agenda that would undermine this nation's need to move forward on addressing serious issues such as climate change, health care and immigration."

"It is extremely rare that this editorial page would offer no recommendation on any race, particularly one of this importance," it continues. "This is one necessary exception."

But how much does the non-endorsement matter, and when do newspaper endorsements have an impact at all?

California Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman found herself in the midst of an immigration controversy on Wednesday, as one of her former housekeepers said she was an undocumented immigrant when she worked for Whitman and alleged that former eBay CEO knew it.

The housekeeper, Nicky Diaz, said the Whitman fired her for being an undocumented worker despite having known her immigration status for 9 years.

"I told her I don't have papers to work here and need her help," Diaz said at a press conference Wednesday. Diaz went on to say that Whitman's husband "yelled" at her.

"I was crying for fear and intimidation. With a face full of tears," she said.

The allegation underscores how volatile an issue immigration is in California and the controversy could have a significant impact on Whitman's campaign against former Gov. Jerry Brown (D). In the GOP primary, Whitman had to cater to the Republican base, much of which supports stronger anti-illegal immigration policies. Since then, she has pivoted to the center, saying that she does not support the recent controversial Arizona immigration law that required law enforcement personnel to check a citizen's immigration status in the course of enforcing other laws.

Whitman's position is further complicated by the fact that Republicans candidates typically need the support of a third of Latino California voters to win statewide.

Whitman immediately responded to the charge, saying that she did not know that Diaz was an illegal immigrant during those 9 years.

"Nicky Diaz was my housekeeper from 2000 to 2009," Whitman said in a statement. "After 9 years of faithful service, Nicky came to us in June 2009 and confessed that she was an illegal worker. Nicky had falsified the hiring documents and personal information she provided to the employment agency that brought her to us in 2000."

The Whitman campaign also provided Diaz's application documents, which included a Social Security card and Driver's License that the Whitman camp says were falsified.

The Whitman camp went on step farther on Wednesday, alleging that Diaz's lawyer, Gloria Allred, has manufactured the charges maximum political effect. The Whitman statement notes that Allred has contributed to Brown's campaigns twice, in '82 and '06.

While pocketbook issues are clearly foremost on voters' minds, House Democrats' biggest hurdle may be their own recent successes. Just-released '09 Census numbers from the American Community Survey show that the most endangered seats for Democrats are not more economically strained than the rest of the country, and in some cases are even doing better. Instead, Democratic vulnerability appears much more closely tied with whether the seat is a recent Democratic gain or an open seat and how well Pres. Obama did there in '08.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report ranks 53 Democratic House seats as either toss ups or leaning Republican -- more than 1 in 5 Democrats are at risk. Yet in the 25 Democrat-held districts with the largest drop in per capita income from '08 to '09, just 3 are highly vulnerable: Reps. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), John Hall (D-N.Y.), and Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.). In the 97 Democrat-held districts where per capita income fell at least 5% from '08 to '09, just 14 Democrats are very vulnerable. Conversely, in the 30 Democrat-held districts where per capita income rose from '08 to '09, fully 7 seats are very vulnerable. A Democrat in a district largely sheltered from the economic hurricane is actually more likely to be in political jeopardy than one in the eye of the financial storm.

Similarly, most Democratic seats with the highest unemployment rates in '09 are safe political territory. This is because they're also heavily nonwhite: Of the 25 Democratic seats with the highest unemployment, all but 2 are majority-minority, and none are very vulnerable. Democrats are vulnerable in 1 of 6 districts they hold where the Census found average unemployment was in double digits in '09, but that jumps to 1 in 4 in districts where unemployment stayed in the single digits. The 2 Democrats from districts with the lowest unemployment, Reps. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) and Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) are also 2 of the most endangered.

MO SEN: Democrats released a poll last week that indicates that this race is closer than ever. A Garin-Hart-Yang Research poll (D) of 701 likely voters conducted Sept. 20-22 showed GOP Rep. Roy Blunt at 41%, followed by Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan at 40%, Constitution Party candidate Jerry Beck at 3%, and Libertarian candidate Jonathan Dine at 2%.

Presumably the 5% of the vote going to the Constitution and Libertarian nominees would otherwise go to Blunt. But, can Beck and Dine expect these percentages on Election Day? Recent history says no. In the '04 Senate and gubernatorial races, the Libertarian and Constitution candidates combined for 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively. In the '06 Senate contest, the Libertarian candidate took 2.2%, and in the '08 governor's race, the Libertarian and Constitution nominees combined for 2.1%. In other words, the odds are better than not that Beck and Dine won't get a total of more than 3%, which means that Blunt may be a bit further ahead than these polls suggest. More worrisome for Democrats is that Carnahan hasn't been ahead in any survey since early January.

NV SEN: A Public Opinion Strategies poll (R) of 500 likely voters conducted Sept. 21-23 gave Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) a 5-point advantage over Republican Sharron Angle, 45% to 40%. This is the largest lead that Reid has seen in any survey since mid-July. In fact, the Pollster.com trend line of all general election polls puts Reid's advantage at a single point, 45% to 44%.

Here's an ad that jumped out from the many we see at Hotline On Call every day: Former "Real World" star and former Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy (R-WI) uses his background as a lumberjack competitor to make the case the Washington needs fresh blood.

"Washington's reckless spending and government growth is spinning our country out of control," Duffy says. In the background a "career politician" in a suit stands on a log in a lake and spins it so a senior citizen, a construction worker and a child are forced off.

It ends with Duffy facing off on the log against the politician. "I'm Sean Duffy and I approve this message because it's time we dunk our career politicians and we get America back on track," Duffy says as he spins the politician off the log.

The ad went up Wednesday morning with a "significant" district-wide buy, according to his campaign. It was produced by the Strategy Group For Media.

Duffy is running against state Sen. Julie Lassa (D) for retiring Rep. David Obey's (D) seat in WI 07. The race has been targeted by both the NRCC and the DCCC; they have each aired IE ads in the district.

NRCC polling reported by Hotline On Call on Wednesday showed Duffy holding a 52% to 38% edge over Lassa. Lassa's camp released an internal poll on Tuesday that showed her trailing by a single point.

The conservative group American Crossroads has re-upped its media buys in 6 key Senate races and has ventured into the Washington Senate contest for the first time, according to FEC filings.

In sum, American Crossroads and its nonprofit affiliate Crossroads GPS have spent another $3M on the Senate races in Florida, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Washington.

The spending is entirely on airing new commercials with the exception of Florida, where American Crossroads appears to be sending $247K of direct mail in support of former House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).

The spending in Washington by Crossroads GPS shows Republicans still believe Sen. Patty Murray (D) is vulnerable. Recent polling has suggested that Murray is leading Republican challenger Dino Rossi, however, and the race has become a priority for Democrats as they try to build a firewall to prevent the GOP from winning a Senate majority this fall.

A full breakdown of the buys, from The Hotline's Independent Expenditure tracker, is after the jump.

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) has focused his fire on Gov. Charlie Crist (I) in a hard hitting ad out Wednesday in the Florida Senate race.

The ad, which targets Crist's past comments as a Republican, is a sure sign Meek believes his best shot in the 3-way race is to undercut Crist's standing among Florida Democrats.

Using video footage, the ad features clips of Crist expressing his admiration of leading conservative figures in the Republican Party, including Pres. George W. Bush (R) and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

"I am about as conservative as you can get," Crist says. "Pres. Bush, he is a leader of courage and conviction...I was impressed in Gov. Palin being picked."

It concludes with this line from Crist: "I think it's important for people to understand who the true conservative is in this race. It's Charlie Crist."

The ad is the biggest ad buy of Meek's campaign yet. The Florida Democratic Party is partially funding the ad, which is airing along the I-4 corridor in the Tampa Bay and Orlando media markets.

Florida Democrats believe now is the time to pounce on Crist. The trend lines in recent polls show Crist's support eroding, while Meek's numbers have risen.

Meek's strategy itself isn't new. Meek's team has been emailing out old press releases from Crist's previous campaigns as a Republican that highlight conservative positions. However, the new ad is the toughest and wide-scale attack Meek has made against Crist.

Check out the ad after the jump.

Rep. Gene Taylor (D) is a folk hero in southern Mississippi: He lost his home in Hurricane Katrina, became the only Democrat to sign onto repeal of the new health care law, and says his ideal House Speaker would be Missouri Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO). And in the eyes of most House watchers, that folk hero status and no-nonsense style has made Taylor the most untouchable conservative Democrat in Congress.

But in a sign of just how daunting this midterm election has become for anyone in the Deep South with a D next to their name, new polling conducted by the Tarrance Group (R) for state Rep. Steven Palazzo's campaign shows Palazzo trailing Taylor by just 4 points, 45% to 41%. GOP insiders claim that at the end of last year, Palazzo trailed Taylor by over 40%.

On paper, this shouldn't come as a shock: no Democratic-held House district gave Pres. Obama a lower share of the vote in '08 than this Gulf Coast-hugging seat: It gave Obama just 32%, and includes several counties that gave him less than 20%. Plus, Palazzo, a Gulf War veteran and Marine Corps Reservist who runs an accounting business for Americans living abroad, has been running hard since February and is up with ads asking "Is Gene Taylor still one of us?" -- hitting the 10-term veteran for voting against Bush tax cuts and for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). Taylor, who has rebuffed pleas to switch parties over the years, is also on air reminding voters of his pro-life, pro-gun credentials (he has the NRA endorsement) and attacking Palazzo on an eminent domain vote in the state legislature. Democrats never dreamed Taylor would ever be in danger, but if he is, this election has become their worst nightmare.

Updated 11:30 a.m.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. What we're watching today: 5 NRCC internal polls obtained by Hotline On Call show Democrats in big trouble in contested Midwest House races, Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) surges in Maryland and Pres. Obama continues his economic tour.

Dem Midwest Trouble: New polling out of the Midwest commissioned by the NRCC shows House Democrats facing sizable deficits in competitive races so far.

In 4 targeted districts, the Democrat in the race is trailing by double digits. And Rep. Phil Hare (D-IL), viewed in strong shape at the beginning of the year, now looks to be ins serious trouble, trailing his Republican challenger by one point. (It's no coincidence the DCCC reserved air time Tuesday in his district.)

Like all partisan polls, the NRCC surveys should be taken with a grain of salt. These numbers do, however, mirror national and statewide polls in the region that show Pres. Obama's approval rating below 45% and Republicans enjoying a near double digit advantage on the generic ballot.

The polls featuring incumbent Democrats are most striking. In WI 08, Rep. Steve Kagen (D) is trailing roofing contractor Reid Ribble (R) 57% to 39% in a On Message poll of 400 likely voters conducted Sept. 15-16. While Kagen was always seen as a target - the DCCC had reserved time in the Green Bay district -- these are miserable numbers for an incumbent.

Hare trails businessman Bobby Schilling (R) 44% to 43% in a Tarrance Group survey that was conducted Sept. 23-25. When asked if Hare deserved re-election or if it was time for someone else, just 35% of respondents he should be re-elected.

Retiring Rep. David Obey's seat in WI 07 has been one of the most targeted races of the cycle so far. Both the NRCC and the DCCC have run ads to boost the campaigns of former "Real World" star and Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy (R) and state Sen. Julie Lassa (D). The NRCC poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates from Sept. 15-16, shows Duffy holding a commanding 52% to 38% lead over Lassa among 400 likely voters. Those numbers are strikingly different than the internal poll Lassa released Tuesday showing her trailing Duffy 42% to 41%.

Michigan's 1st District seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Bart Stupak (D), has also been a target for both parties, as both the NRCC and DCCC have aired ads there. The NRCC survey, conducted by Hill Research Consultants Sept. 19-21, found Republican Dan Benishek leading Democrat Gary McDowell 40% to 24% among 400 likely voters. In this Upper Peninsula district, Obama is viewed unfavorably by 56% in the survey.

Lastly in the open seat race for Rep. Brad Ellsworth's (D) IN 08, heart surgeon Larry Bucshon (R) leads state Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D) leads 41% to 20% in an On Message survey of 400 likely voters. Respondents said they would prefer a Republican on the generic ballot question, 45% to 29% in that poll, which was conducted Sept. 13-14.

All of the surveys had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

O'Malley Opening A Lead: The Maryland governor's race appears to be defying the national GOP atmosphere, as a new poll shows Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) opening up a double digit lead over former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R).

The Washington Post survey out Wednesday shows O'Malley leading Ehrlich 52% to 41%. The last time the Post surveyed the race back in May, O'Malley led by 8%.

The poll shows how difficult it is for a Republican to win statewide in Maryland, a state where President Obama is viewed favorably. Ehrlich has the backing of nearly every Republican in the poll and has a wide lead among independents -- 54% to 34%. But he's got little appeal to Democrats, which make up 57 percent of the state's electorate.

O'Malley has been steadily climbing in polls since the summer. Wednesday's poll surveyed 730 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Gubernatorial races are more insulated from national congressional trends, and Democrats are counting on the strength of individual candidacies to trump the poor national climate, particularly in states like Georgia, Florida and Texas. http://wapo.st/av8IiZ, http://bit.ly/9lJ2Gc

Attorney General Jack Conway (D) is going after ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) for supporting cuts to Medicare.

In his latest salvo, Conway went up with a hard hitting ad on Tuesday that uses Paul's words against him. It features a video clip of Paul saying that the "real answer to Medicare would be a $2K deductible." That's followed by testimonials from Kentucky residents saying that they can't afford to pay $2K to get Medicare.

The move marks a new line of attack for Conway, who previously has hit Paul mainly for statements ignoring the drug problem in Kentucky.

It also shows that Kentucky is yet another state where Democrats believe they can run on Medicare - a hot-button issue in a state with a high concentration of seniors.

Paul's remarks don't appear to be taken out of context. The Conway campaign also released the unedited footage, and the remarks jive with a recent interview he gave. Paul said last week that "nobody wants" higher premiums but that they may be necessary.

"I don't want higher premiums. But I also don't want the system to be bankrupt where we can't pay for Medicare at all," Paul said. "So I think we need to be adults and talk about the fact that we're short of money."

On Monday, the NRSC cancelled a week of ads in the state, claiming they were doing so because they are confident in Paul's position.

Check out the ad below.

Even though House Republicans introduced their "Pledge to America" last week, Americans largely still believe Pres. Obama has done a better job than the GOP at explaining his plans for the country by a significant margin, according to new polling out Tuesday.

When asked who has done a better job articulating their vision for the country, exactly half said Obama has while 28% said congressional Republicans. The results were included in the latest Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll.

The poll is another indication that Republicans have not put forth specific plans for what they will do if they win back Congress this fall. Democrats have charged that Republicans are content being the "party of no," unanimously opposing Democratic legislation without offering their own proposals.

Republicans sought to counter that last week with the unveiling of their "Pledge To America." This survey, however, was conducted Sept. 23 to 26 -- after that unveiling -- which suggests that the pledge has yet to resonate with voters.

Notably, Obama also enjoyed an advantage on this question among independents; 48% said Obama has articulated a clearer vision, compared to 26% for Republicans.

The poll surveyed 1,010 adults and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Check out the full results of the poll and interactive graphics here.

Updated, 2:32 p.m.

House Democrats are going to bat for some of their longest-serving members in new advertisements, a recognition that longevity in DC has put veteran committee chairmen in serious danger of losing their seats.

The DCCC will begin advertising on behalf of Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO), John Spratt (D-SC) and Paul Kanjorski (D-PA), according to a source briefed on the committee's plans.

None of those decisions will surprise political observers. Skelton, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, and Spratt, who chairs the Budget panel, have been Republican targets virtually from the beginning of the cycle. Kanjorski, who chairs a major Financial Services subcommittee, faced a nail-bitingly close election in 2008 and is running against the same candidate in a much more Republican-friendly environment.

Those 3 districts are just a part of the DCCC's new round of ad buys. In total, the committee will launch new spots in a dozen new seats, including an open contest in West Virginia where Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) lost in a primary, open seats held by retiring Reps. Marion Berry (D-AR) and Brian Baird (D-WA) and a GOP-held seat being vacated by Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL).

The DCCC will also begin running ads defending Reps. Harry Mitchell (D-AZ), Sanford Bishop (D-GA), Frank Kratovil (D-MD) and Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA).

The Iowa gubernatorial contest, a race Republicans have identified as a prime pick up opportunity this cycle, appears firmly in the hands of former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) with 5 weeks to go until Election Day. A new poll released over the weekend reaffirmed Branstad's double-digit lead on struggling incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D), raising the question of how much support Culver can count on from national Democrats the rest of the way.

The poll, conducted for the Des Moines Register from Sept. 19 to 22, shows Branstad with a commanding 52% to 33% lead over Culver among likely voters. Branstad has led Culver by double digits for much of the race and has not relinquished his lead, even as the Culver campaign recently unveiled a shift in strategy in the hopes of making up ground. The poll also reveals Culver has a dismal 35% approval rating among Iowans.

The poll was conducted after the Culver campaign unveiled a TV ad of a new sort earlier this month in which the incumbent governor openly admitted to making mistakes, suggesting the strategic shift has not yielded immediate gains. "I've made my share of mistakes. But they were honest mistakes and I've listened to your concerns and I've grown on the job," said Culver in the ad. In unveiling the ad, he also expressed his desire to "hit the restart button" with voters.

"What the Register poll suggested was that many voters in fact support some of Culver's policies, which I think indicates that this is more of a personal repudiation of Culver, as opposed to his policies," said Drake University Prof. Dennis Goldford.

Former Pres. Jimmy Carter was taken off a flight to Cleveland and hospitalized after developing an upset stomach on Tuesday. Carter was taken to MetroHealth Hospital, where he is resting comfortably, according to the Carter Center.

Carter, 85, was traveling to promote his new book, "White House Diary," which was released last week. He will resume the tour later in the week, the center said.

The 39th president has had relatively few health problems given his advanced age and has written about his work building homes for Habitat for Humanity, his love of fishing and other activities. Carter is among 4 living ex presidents -- George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

The DSCC is going on the air in the West Virginia Senate race, another sign that the contest between Gov. Joe Manchin (D) and businessman John Raese (R) is tightening.

The Senate race for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D) seat was originally considered a sure thing for the Democrats when Manchin jumped in the race. Manchin has enjoyed exceptionally high approval ratings despite West Virginia's economic struggles.

Pres. Obama's sagging approval rating and strong disapproval of his health care reform, however, have created a bad environment for Manchin. Recent polling shows the race to be one of the closest in the country.

The DSCC's ad also follows the NRSC, who went on the air last week with an ad backed by a $1.2M buy. The DSCC is spending about $500K on the ad this week, according to a Republican who monitors media buys. That nearly matches what the NRSC is spending this week on their ad.

The ad hits Raese for opposing the minimum wage and outsourcing jobs.

"John Raese. He wants to eliminate the minimum wage," the narrator says. "Failed to pay workers compensation for on-the-job injuries. But one thing John Raese does support? A pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations who ship our jobs overseas."

As Hotline On Call reported in our Path To Victory feature, Democrats believe Raese's business record on issues like the minimum wage will make effective attacks against Raese in the heavily unionized West Virginia work force.

Check out the ad after the jump.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is going up with an ad hitting California Sen. Barbara Boxer on Tuesday that reveals the GOP strategy for attacking the Democrat this year.

The ad, the Chamber's second in California, is supported by a "significant" ad buy focused primarily in Los Angeles. The ad will be up for a couple weeks and may stay on the air for longer, according to Chamber sources.

In the ad, the Chamber emphasizes how long Boxer has been in Washington. The narrator repeatedly says "28 years" in an attempt to paint Boxer as a creature of D.C.

"Barbara Boxer," the narrator says. "She's been in Washington for 28 years. 28 years voting to add trillions to the national debt, piling up record deficits, raising our taxes. 28 years."

As we noted in our Path To Victory feature, characterizing Boxer as a career politician that has "gone Washington" is a big part of former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina's (R) campaign effort.

The Chamber's decision to focus the ad on the Los Angeles media market is also notable. That market covers both the City of Angels -- a pivotal part of Boxer's Democratic base -- and Orange County, a conservative area where Fiorina will need to run up the score to win.

Check out the ad after the jump.

In a sign of just how daunting this midterm election has become for any Democrat in conservative territory, The Cook Political Report has moved 5 races from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic.

The races are:
ME 02: Rep. Mike Michaud (D)
MA 05: Rep. Nike Tsongas (D)
MS 04: Rep. Gene Taylor (D)
NY 22: Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D)
WA 09: Rep. Adam Smith (D)

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. What to watch this morning: The NRSC commits resources to Kelly Ayotte (R) in New Hampshire, DGA attacks Charlie Baker (R) in Massachusetts and the White House hits the campaign trail in earnest.

NRSC Boosting Ayotte: The NRSC is going into New Hampshire, committing $171K in coordinated campaigns to former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte's (R) Senate campaign, according to NRSC sources.

That amount of money isn't mind blowing, but it is the maximum amount the NRSC can give to Ayotte in coordinated funds under New Hampshire campaign finance law. The money will be used to pay for Ayotte's upcoming TV ads.

The move puts pressure on the DSCC, which has yet to commit funds in support of Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) campaign.

Giving coordinated campaign funds has been a common strategy for the NRSC this year. As opposed to independent expenditure ads - where the committee isn't allowed to consult with the candidate -- it allows the NRSC to discuss strategy with the campaign and still pay for the air time. They have committed $1.9M to former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in the California Senate race and $3.4M to Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in the Illinois contest.

It is worth noting, however, that the commitment does not mean Ayotte will be going on the air immediately. In California, those funds have yet to be used by Fiorina's campaign. And in Illinois, the Kirk campaign used the funds only after the DSCC went on the air with an IE ad.

Blasting Baker: On the heels of a poll showing the Massachusetts gubernatorial race tightening, the DGA is going up with an ad on Tuesday hitting GOP nominee and former health care CEO Charlie Baker.

The ad is being aired by Bay State Future, a group that the DGA funds. It is going on the air Tuesday with a significant statewide saturation buy, according to DGA sources. It hits Baker with a jobs message.

"Worried about jobs?" the narrator says. "Well Charlie Baker favors tax loopholes that encourage corporations to ship our jobs overseas. He even signed a pledge to protest those loopholes. So if Charlie Baker gets his way, goodbye jobs."

The ad shows that Democrats are staying on the offensive in the Bay State race that appears to be getting closer, as Independent Tim Cahill begins to fade. This is the second ad the DGA has run targeting Baker.

Baker is running against Gov. Deval Patrick (D) and Cahill, the state Treasurer. Baker was touted as the GOP's best possible candidate in the race, but until this point he has trailed Patrick in part because Cahill is also running to Patrick's right and capturing support that would likely otherwise to Baker.

On Sunday, however, a Boston Globe poll showed Baker running just 1 point behind Patrick -- 34% to 35% -- while Cahill pulled 11%.
DGA ad: http://bit.ly/9vwj5c
Poll: http://bit.ly/95r1Xj

Former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R) has closed to within 3 points of Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) in the increasingly tight CT Senate race, according to a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll out today.

Blumenthal leads McMahon, 49% to 46%, a margin that is half as large as the 6-point lead he had just 2 weeks ago. Blumenthal remains popular, with more than two-thirds of likely voters approving his the job he is doing as AG. But Blumenthal is being weighed down by the unpopularity of Pres. Obama, particularly among independent voters.

Independents in the poll disapprove of Obama's job performance by a 38% to 56% margin. Those same independents break for McMahon, 49% to 44%.

Perhaps as a pre-emptive measure, the Blumenthal camp e-mailed reporters Monday night with the results of an internal poll that showed Blumenthal leading McMahon, 52% to 40%.

The polling is consistent with Quinnipiac's recent surveys in other states. Since they switched to a likely-voter model after Labor Day, their polls have shown significantly better results for the GOP than their registered-voter polls prior to the holiday.

The list of House races that could pose problems for Democrats this November is getting longer by the day, as leaders of the Tea Party-affiliated PAC FreedomWorks unleash a host of last-minute endorsements to "push the boundary of the competitive field."

As other Tea Party organizations regroup to carry their preferred candidates through the general election, FreedomWorks is rolling out up to 6 new endorsements every day, nearly all of them in states deemed "likely Democrat" or "lean Democrat" by the Cook Political Report.

"With the growing momentum on our side, we're actually looking at some of the new swing district candidates... and I think there's an opportunity there," said FreedomWorks President Matt Kibbe. "There's so much time and energy and money focused on the typical top-50 House target, and the typical 10 Senate targets, that we're going to be looking a little bit outside of that and see if we can't get activists to focus on some additional seats."

Max Pappas, managing director of the PAC, said the group plans to endorse candidates in as many as 70 to 80 races before Nov. 2.

On Monday, FreedomWorks announced its support of Republicans Jeff Perry in the "lean Democrat" MA 10; Adam Kinzinger (IL 11), Andy Harris (MD 01), Brad Zaun (IA 03) and Todd Young (IN 09) in "Democratic toss-up" districts; and Robert Dold in the IL 10 "Republican toss-up" district. A similar list came out Friday, endorsing 6 Pennsylvanian House candidates -- including contenders in the 4th and 17th Districts, both of which fall into the "likely Democrat" category.

In an odd twist, the NRA is becoming conservative Democrats' go-to for changing the narrative of their races this year.

In the last two weeks, no fewer than 8 Democrats have won NRA endorsements. In each case, the Democrat is locked in a tight race with a swing or Republican leaning electorate. And in several instances, the endorsement was announced in an attempt to shift a negative news cycle.

On Monday, the NRA -- which typically backs Republicans -- endorsed Iowa Gov. Chet Culver (D) in his re-election bid against former Gov. Terry Branstad (R). In a statement, Culver said the endorsement speaks to "a record of bipartisan accomplishment, and putting Iowans before politics."

The announcement comes a day after a Des Moines Register poll showed Culver trailing Branstad by a whopping 19 points, 52% to 33%.

Similarly, last week West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) also announced the NRA would support his Senate bid after the NRSC announced it was spending $1.2M on a TV campaign in the state -- a sure sign that Republicans increasingly view the race as competitive.

The growing number of Democratic endorsements separates the NRA from other groups on the right and is particularly striking in what looks like it will be a very good year for Republicans. Groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, for example, have backed Republicans almost exclusively.

The NRSC has pulled its ads attacking Attorney General Jack Conway (D) in the Kentucky Senate race. The Republican committee cancelled its media buy for this week, a source who monitors media buying told Hotline On Call.

As with all ad cancellations in tight races, there are 2 ways of looking at the significance of the NRSC's move.

Democrats say it's a sign that Republicans are increasingly nervous about ophthalmologist Rand Paul's (R) chances against Conway. They point to recent polling that shows Conway closing on Paul's once very sizable lead and note that Paul was not the NRSC's preferred candidate in the race.

Republicans push back on those suggestions. They question recent polling and insist that the cancellation occurred because they are that confident in Paul's position. They also predict that they will go back on the air in Kentucky before Election Day.

Kentucky was the first state where the NRSC went on the air. In that ad, the committee tied Conway to Pres. Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

A Monday morning power outage at the Watergate, where The Hotline is produced every day, got us thinking in metaphors: Has the GOP surged too soon? Or are Dems overloading the system en route to their own premature zenith?

-- The macro picture still argues strongly that the GOP will run away with the midterms. But recent polling shows races around the country tightening. GOP strategists were talking about how great they felt a few weeks ago. Now Dems are cautiously wondering whether they're getting a bit of a jolt.

-- GOPers are having a tougher time in once-marginal seats, like WA SEN and CA SEN, while House Dems are honing their focus in order to save the members they can. It's notable, for instance, that the DCCC has spent nearly $189K for Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL) and exactly $0 for Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA).

-- Pres. Obama hits the trail this week to deliver a jolt to the Dem base, a message that's likely to be almost entirely negative. Dem candidates have zapped the GOP with negative spots from the beginning, but they should be careful not to blow fuses. Attack too much and they'll never find that spark with voters.

Both sides have concerns heading into the race's final 36 days. Whichever side better addresses their issues will get control of the switches in the 112th Congress -- and the power bill that comes with it.

Democrats were once hopeful that Senate Republican retirements would help them retain the majority this year, as the open seats created pick up opportunities in Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky and New Hampshire.

But with late Democratic retirements in Connecticut, North Dakota and Indiana, tough holds in Illinois and West Virginia, and an unexpected primary loss in Pennsylvania, open seats have become a significant problem for Democrats. That problem is only exacerbated by the severe lack of funding Democratic Senate candidates face in open seat races, coupled with the invasion of third party groups largely partial to Republicans.

Democrats recruited well in the close open seat races, and in a normal year, their candidates would be running far stronger. But the bad Democratic environment isn't the only reason Democrats have lost the edge. The Supreme Court's Citizens United decision, plus some funding drying up for the usual Democratic spenders, have left the third-party action almost entirely to the GOP. The DSCC is carrying most of the water in all of these races, while labor unions are chipping in only slightly. If Democratic candidates don't get additional outside help soon, they risk being drowned out in October, and then Democrats can kiss their hopes of a surprise pickup goodbye.

It's just not pick-ups that are the problem. In Illinois, Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) has been attacked on TV with more than $1M worth of ads from the Chamber of Commerce, American Crossroads and the Committee for Truth in Politics. In addition, his opponent Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) had more than $2.8M more in the bank at the end of the 2nd quarter, and the NRSC has not yet begun to spend the $3.4M they pledged to the Kirk campaign.

The AFL-CIO is targeting businessman John Raese (R) for the first time in the West Virginia Senate race, a sign they view the race in play and hope to leverage their clout in a union-rich state.

The mail piece, which will be delivered to union members in West Virginia, hits Raese for statements on safety regulations on coal mines in light of the explosion at the Upper Big Branch Mine in April.

"After the deadliest mining disaster in 40 years, one Senate candidate wants to 'unshackle' management from safety regulations, and one is fighting to make them stronger," the mail piece reads.

The mail piece is part of 3.5M that the AFL-CIO is sending out on Monday. Direct mail has been the focus of the AFL-CIO's political efforts so far this year. Including this batch, the union has mailed 8M pieces, all of which are negative or contrast ads.

This is the first time the AFL-CIO has mailed into West Virginia, where union membership is high. The West Virginia race seemed safe for Democrats earlier this cycle when Gov. Joe Manchin (D), who enjoys high approval ratings, got into the race.

But Pres. Obama's sinking approval ratings in the state appear to be taking their toll on Manchin, however. Raese has sought to nationalize the race, casting Manchin as a "rubberstamp" for Obama. In a sign of just how unpopular Obama's health care reform is, Manchin called for repealing parts of the law.

Rep. Chris Carney's (D) campaign Monday released an internal poll showing the congressman up 8 points, 46% to 38%, over Republican challenger Tom Marino in the heated battle to represent northeast Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District.

Momentum Analysis, which surveyed 400 voters Sept. 23-25, conducted the poll. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

The results differ from other surveys of the race, which have shown the former U.S. attorney Marino leading Carney. A poll released Sunday from the Wilkes-Barre Times-Leader showed Marino leading the incumbent by 4 points, 40% to 36%, while a late July poll from the American Action Forum Network showed the Republican up 15 points, 52% to 37%.

The mostly rural 10th District, which covers a large swath of the state's famed conservative "T," is prime hunting ground for Republicans this year as they try to capitalize on a better political climate.

But Marino's campaign has been dogged by poor fundraising and missteps, most notably when he said in the spring that the Department of Justice gave him permission to serve as a reference on a gaming application for convicted felon Louis DeNaples. Marino's office was investigating DeNaples at the time, and the DOJ said on the record last week it never gave the candidate permission to do so.

The NRCC is going on the air in more than 30 districts on Monday, seeking bring the fight to Democrats in many competitive districts.

The ads are part of the $35M the NRCC has budgeted to spend this year in 55 districts so far.

The blitz is particularly significant because the DCCC has yet to go on the air in the vast majority of these districts, choosing to save most of its resources for the final weeks of the campaign.

The majority of the districts the NRCC targeting are expected swing districts. The NRCC is spending the most, for example, targeting Rep. Mark Schauer (D) in MI 07. The NRCC is spending $352K on an ad that hits Schauer for voting to cut Medicare. Schauer is facing a rematch against former Rep. Tim Walberg (R).

The NRCC is also targeting 9 other Democrats with ad buys of $100K or more. In MO 04, they are targeting Rep. Ike Skelton (D), a veteran conservative Democrat who wasn't considered vulnerable at the beginning of the cycle, with $183K worth of an ad (that features the music from HBO's "Curb Your Enthusiasm." )

The ad buys show that open seats are a top priority early in the cycle for the NRCC, as it hopes to define the Democrats in each race. The NRCC is spending $180K on an ad that targets Democratic nominee Gary McDowell in the race for retiring Rep. Bart Stupak's (D) seat in MI 01. Notably, the DCCC also went up with a $30K ad buy in this district this week, targeting doctor Dan Benishek (R).

Similarly, the NRCC is spending big in WA 03, the seat vacated by Rep. Brian Baird (D). Republicans are spending $173K on hitting former state Rep. Denny Heck (D). That ad is part of the $900K that Hotline On Call reported last week that the NRCC is planning to spend in the district.

The NRCC is also spending a little bit on the seat vacated by Rep. Mark Kirk (R), who is running for the Senate. The NRCC is spending $56K on an ad targeting Democratic nominee Dan Seals (D). But that's hardly a drop in the bucket, given that broadcast TV in the Chicago media market costs millions.

The NRCC is also spending $159K on Rep. Dina Titus (D) in NV 03, $147K on Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) in PA 11, $125K on Rep. Allen Boyd (D) in FL 02, $140K on Rep. Baron Hill (D) in IN 09, $116K on Rep. Earl Pomeroy (R) in ND AL and $112K on John Spratt (R) in SC 05.

The other districts where the NRCC is spending are expected battlegrounds this fall. They include TX 17, MS 01, NY 20, AL 02, AZ 01, CA 11, GA 08, IL 11, IL 14, IN 02, KY 06, NC 07, NJ 03, PA 03, PA 07, PA 08, TN 08, VA 05, WI 07, VA 09.

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: A new report on reapportionment highlights the importance of 2 gubernatorial races, another "pledge" on the right, and Obama hits the campaign trail.

The Numbers Game. A new report on reapportionment sheds light on how important some races this year will be in redrawing congressional districts over the next two years.

Election Data Services and Esri, a leading demographics company, released a new study on which states stand to gain seats in the House and which stand to lose based on population shifts. The big winners happen to be in states holding marquee gubernatorial races. Texas is projected to gain 4 seats, bringing its total to 36 and Florida is slated to have 27 post census seats, a 2-seat jump.

The data are a big reason why Democrats have repeatedly said that Texas and Florida are top opportunities for them this year. Governors play a pivotal role in redistricting efforts, often holding the ability to veto maps proposed by state legislatures. Democrats are in decent shape in Florida where CFO Alex Sink (D) is currently leading businessman Rick Scott (R), according to a Mason Dixon survey out late last week. Florida's state legislature is Republican controlled, so getting Sink to the governor's mansion is a top priority for Democrats.

Democrats will have more trouble in Texas, where Republicans control both houses of the state legislature and Gov. Rick Perry (R) is leading former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) Perry led White 46% to 39% among likely voters in a Dallas Morning News poll out Sunday. Democrats argue Perry is vulnerable, however, pointing to the fact that he's the longest-serving governor in an anti-establishment environment, and hasn't hit the magic 50 percent mark yet.

Six states are slated to gain one House seat in the report, including in Georgia where Democrats are cautiously optimistic on former Gov. Roy Barnes' chances against ex-Rep. Nathan Deal (R). Other states slated to gain a seat are Arizona, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.

The big losers in the report are New York and Ohio, each are projected to lose 2 seats. Eight states -- Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania -- are estimated to lose 1 seat each.

Seeing, And Raising, the "Pledge:" Less than a week after the GOP House leadership unveiled its "Pledge To America," another influential group on the right is unveiling its own proposal for Republicans if they take back Congress this fall. The conservative Heritage Foundation is unveiling "Solutions For America," a comprehensive, lengthy manifesto.

In a letter announcing the document to supporters, Heritage President Edwin J. Feulner didn't sound all too enthused about the GOP's "Pledge." He referenced it only to call it a "step in the right direction," according to the letter provided to Hotline On Call, adding that "now is the time to be bold."

"Solutions For America" is broken into 23 chapters on 23 policy issues. It also touts 128 specific policy proposals. Check it out here and watch to see if influences Republican policy positions. http://bit.ly/cFIWIR

Have you checked out our cool new subscriber-only features yet? Click here for our Independent Expenditure Tracker and click here for our constantly-updated campaign trail calendar. Here's what else we at The Hotline learned about the races we're covering this week:

-- Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) is now the clear front-runner over FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D). Even as the FL press decides to cover Rubio's past financial troubles, a slew of new surveys shows he's way ahead. Crist's ads are targeting Rubio mostly, although 9/24's TV ad hits both Meek and Rubio for ethical lapses. Crist is probably at his favorability peak, so it's his job to tear Rubio and Meek down if he has a chance to win. That's a tough proposition.

-- Democratic Senate candidates in CA and WA are looking in better shape this week, but new problems in WV and, to a lesser extent, CT, are cropping up. It's a game of whack-a-mole for both Senate and House Dems - effectively help protect one incumbent, and several more emerge as new targets. Simple math: If a major wave emerges, GOP needs to win 2 out of these 4 Senate races: CA, CT, WA, WV. Tough but doable.

-- For Republican senatorial nominees Ron Johnson (R) and Dino Rossi (R), this week was a tale of two candidates. Last week, a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp poll showed Rossi trailing Murray by 9 points among LVs. This week, a comment by Rossi during an ed. board meeting quickly made its way into a Murray attack ad, as Dem group Commonsense 10 joined the fray as well, hitting Rossi with their own commercial.

-- For Johnson, the week was not without more news from his background lingering as a point of contention in the race, as state Dems went after the businessman over a grant. But Johnson's impressive showing in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll that showed him leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by six points among LVs suggests he is in a good position at present in his bid to unseat Feingold.

With six weeks to go before Election Day, here's what we at The Hotline took away from this week:

-- The "Pledge to America" is either bolder than the '94 Contract or a pulled punch and a missed opportunity, depending on who you believe. One thing it's not: A decisive moment in the '10 campaign. For that matter, House Min. Leader John Boehner isn't a decisive figure either, despite the White House's best efforts.

-- Few voters are going to make up their mind to vote for or against Reid Ribble in WI-08, Joe Heck in NV-03 or Jamie Hererra in WA-03 because the House GOP has a plan or because of Boehner's alleged ties to lobbyists. If anything, Democrats want to keep the races as local as possible, rather than risking nationalizing an already-ugly atmosphere.

-- Then again, there were some obvious missteps in the Plege's roll-out. Ending TARP is a great talking point, except that the program ends next weekend anyway. And the GOP is calling for Speaker Nancy Pelosi to bring the GOP's proposal up for a vote now. It would sure help if they'd bothered to introduce the legislation in the first place. Mistakes like that will only get notice from the Pledge's real constituency: The media, which has bought the Democrats' "party of no" charge.

It's been an interesting weekend so far on the House front. Three polls have been released over the last 2 days showing Republicans in prime position to pick up key House seats, while Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL 08) has gone up with a new ad attacking his challenger on social issues.

Grayson has never been one to shy away from controversy, and he certainly doesn't do so in a new TV ad that calls former state Sen. Dan Webster, his Republican opponent, "Taliban Dan." In saying the Republican wants to impose his "radical fundamentalism on us," Grayson accuses Webster of wanting to "deny battered women medical care," and "wants to force raped women to bear the child."

Interspersed are clips of Webster apparently reciting a verse from the bible and saying, "Wives, submit yourselves to your own husband."

In a cycle where Democrats are hitting their challengers with TV ads focused on Social Security, Medicare and outsourcing, Grayson seems bent on focusing his race on social issues. Earlier in the race, he hit Webster for supporting covenant marriage, which would only let couples divorce in the case of adultery.

Polls have been scarce in this district, but both sides believe the outspoken Grayson is very vulnerable in his Orlando-based seat. While the district has voted Democratic before -- it gave Pres. Obama 52% as it swept the liberal Grayson into office in '08 -- it is very much a swing district.

Compared to the boisterous Grayson, Webster is quiet and much more reserved. While most Republicans view him as a strong challenger, some worried during the primary that he would not be able to stand mano-a-mano against Grayson's attacks. His response to Grayson's ad will tell us a lot about how he'll deal with Grayson in the next month.

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's Path To Victory. On Friday, we looked at how former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) can overcome 13% party registration deficit to defeat Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) and pull off what would be considered a significant upset.

We now turn to Boxer's campaign. Boxer's camp has withstood a litany of stories about how vulnerable she is, especially with Fiorina - and her checkbook - in the race. This is the toughest re-election bid of Boxer's career but she appears to be making progress. A Field Poll out Friday showed Boxer leading 47% to 40%, a 3-point bump from her numbers in July.

So how does she keep up the momentum through Election Day? Boxer's path to victory is threefold: Make Fiorina seem too conservative for California's Democratic-friendly electorate, undercut Fiorina's strongest attack line, and rev up the base.

Carly "The Extreme" Fiorina: To put it simply, Democrats - and several non-partisan analysts - believe that Fiorina is too far to the right to win statewide in California. Unlike former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) in the gubernatorial race and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) before her, Fiorina has not moved to the center following the GOP primary. In particular, Democrats are critical of her positions on offshore drilling (she supports it), abortion (she opposes it), the assault weapons ban (she opposes it), and Schwarzenegger's clean energy initiative (she wants to repeal it and is the only statewide Republican to take that position).

These are positions that the conventional wisdom would suggest are too conservative to win statewide in the Golden State. "It would be a miracle for those positions to pass muster in California," said one Democrat strategist in the state. "This woman should be running in Utah."

Democrats believe that highlighting these positions will drive Fiorina's unfavorability numbers up. Boxer has been on the air for more than a week attacking Fiorina, and her negative numbers have risen. In the Field poll released Friday, 38% viewed Fiorina unfavorably. That's up from 29% in a July survey while her favorable number has remained at 34% during that time.

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's weekly Path To Victory feature, where we look at some of the marquee races this year and how each side is planning to win. This week we're looking at the high profile - and expensive - battle between Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) in California.

Boxer, once considered one of the safest Democrats this cycle, is locked in her toughest re-election bid yet. Fiorina's entrance into the race, combined with the tough atmosphere for Democrats, has put this race on the map for the GOP while the Democrats hope it will be part of the firewall that prevents Republicans from winning a Senate majority.

Fiorina, however, still starts at a disadvantage. She is trailing Boxer 47% to 41% in a new Field poll out Friday, and Republicans always face an uphill fight in California, a state where Democrats have a 13-point registration edge. Since Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) won re-election in '06, GOP registration has dropped 5%. "If she does win," a Republican strategist said, "It'll turn conventional wisdom on its ear."

But, as Republicans tell you, there is a path for Fiorina, albeit a narrow one. And with that, here is how Fiorina can upset Boxer in November.

It's The Economy, Stupid: Fiorina's opening in this race is on the economy and jobs. California is a fiscal mess and unemployment is on the rise. Several analysts said this is the worst economic environment that they can remember. The state's unemployment rate is 12.4 percent - third worst in the country.

Fiorina is running squarely on the "throw the bums out" message. She's targeted Democrats, both in Washington and Sacramento, for failing to get the economy moving. She's already pointed to her work at Hewlett-Packard and say she knows how to stimulate job growth. (The Boxer camp will scoff at this, but more on that in her Path To Victory feature.)

And fortunately for Fiorina, that message jives quite nicely with what former eBay CEO and Meg Whitman's (R) is running upballot on in the governor's race. Analysts on both sides agree that Fiorina will benefit from the millions Whitman is pouring into the race for a couple reasons. First, a big message -- throw out the Democrats -- works for both. Second, Whitman is expected to have a strong ground game come Election Day that will help drive up GOP turnout and, thus, benefit Fiorina.

One of the great truisms of electoral politics is that the party in power loses seats in the House and the Senate in midterm elections. What has gone unnoticed, though, is that the same trend extends down the ballot to state legislatures. There are 7,382 seats among the 50 state legislatures, but not every seat is up in any given election cycle.

In the 8 first term midterm elections since '54, the party in power has lost state legislative seats in 7 of them. The average loss is 217.5 seats. The high mark was in '94 when Democrats lost 514 seats and the low was in '90 when Republicans lost just 29 seats. The exception was '02 when the GOP actually picked up 177 seats.

There are 6,115 state legislative seats on the ballot in '10, according to Tim Storey, the National Conference of State Legislatures' expert on state legislative elections. Democrats hold roughly 55% of these seats to 45% for Republicans. Given the national political climate and that Democrats have more seats at risk, it is not unreasonable to suspect that the party may suffer above average losses in November.

This weekend's Sunday shows will focus on the upcoming midterms and spotlight the GOP's "Pledge to America." On "Fox News Sunday," "young gun" chief deputy whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and House Min. Leader John Boehner (R-OH) talk shop with FOX News' Chris Wallace.

"Meet The Press" will kick off NBC's week-long series, "Education Nation with Educ. Sec. Arne Duncan. Over on MSNBC at 8 pm ET, "Morning Joe" hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski will host a one-hour town hall on the new documentary "Waiting for Superman." And Newt Gingrich (R-GA) is interviewed, 9/26 on C-SPAN's "Road to the White House 2012" at 6:30/9:30 pm ET.

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen (MD), Educ. Sec. Arne Duncan, DC Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee, Detroit Public Schools Financial Mgr. Robert Bobb and AFT pres Randi Weingarten.

Face the Nation hosts FL SEN nominee/ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), CO SEN nominee/Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) and Tea Party Express' Sal Russo.

This Week hosts Senior WH adviser David Axelrod, Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) and Jordan's Queen Rania. Plus a roundtable with conservative columnist George Will, Democratic strategist Donna Brazille, and National Journal's Matthew Dowd and Ron Brownstein.

Fox News Sunday hosts House Min. Leader John Boehner, chief deputy whip Kevin McCarthy and Maj. Whip Steny Hoyer.

California-based Republican ad man Fred Davis signed a contract today with Delaware Senate Republican candidate Christine O'Donnell to craft her television ads for her general election battle against Democrat Chris Coons.

"We'll be doing something interesting, I hope," Davis told National Journal.

His firm, Strategic Perception Inc., is behind some of the GOP's most buzz-worthy ad spots in recent election cycles. It has produced two viral hits of 2010 so far: the "Demon Sheep" ad for California Republican Senate candidate Carly Fiorina and the "Worst President in History" ad for Arizona Republican House candidate Ben Quayle.

O'Donnell won an upset primary victory against Rep. Mike Castle earlier this month. Her candidacy has been derided by some in the Republican establishment, including former Bush strategist Karl Rove, but Davis' signing on could be a signal that the GOP is coalescing around its nominee.

Former Delaware lieutenant governor John Carney on Friday became the first Democratic congressional contender to criticize the Democratic leadership for delaying a vote on extending the Bush tax cuts.

Carney is running against developer Glen Urquhart (R) in the race for Rep. Mike Castle's (R) seat.

"I'm disappointed that leaders in Washington decided to delay a critical vote on extending tax cuts," Carney said in a statement. "Even though people across Delaware and our country continue to struggle during these tough economic times, politicians in Congress keep choosing partisan politics and gridlock over helping middle-class families."

Carney may mark the beginning of another wave of Democratic infighting on the economy. Earlier this month, nearly 3 dozen Democrats broke with Pres. Obama's plan to let the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy expire.

Urquhart was to the right of her establishment backed primary opponent, businesswoman Michele Rollins, but national Republicans believe they can still hold on to this seat.

Senate Democrats announced Thursday that they would delay a vote on the tax cuts until after the election.

Hours after the NRSC announced it is going up on the air in the West Virginia Senate race, Gov.Joe Manchin (D) announced that he has received the endorsement of the National Rifle Association.

Make no mistake about the timing: It is intended to bolster his conservative credentials at a time when he's getting hammered by the GOP. Earlier on Friday, the NRSC spent $1.2M on a statewide ad targeting Manchin.

The endorsement touts Manchin's "A" rating from the NRA and his background as a lifelong hunter.

Notably, Manchin also sought to distance himself from Pres. Obama in the statement announcing the endorsement. The NRSC and businessman John Raese's (R) campaign have sought to portray Manchin as a "rubber stamp" for Obama.

"In the U.S. Senate," Manchin said. "I will lead the fight against any attempts, including from the Obama administration, to weaken our 2nd amendment rights to ensure that law-abiding Americans can always bear arms."

This isn't the first time Manchin has been backed by groups that traditionally endorse Republicans. He also recently received the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce.

Republican Senate candidates from Florida to Nevada have gotten the message that social networking matters - in 140 characters or less. Many Republicans of the Tea Party stripe dwarf their Democratic opponents in presence and energy on Twitter and Facebook, according to a new report from HeadCount, a non-partisan voter registration group.

"We now have a transparent view into momentum," says Republican new media guru Patrick Ruffini. "I don't think you can extrapolate that into who will get votes, but it is a predictor of momentum, passion and support."

Online presence can also drive debate: Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's tweets and Facebook posts in large part nationalized the conversation over the expansion of an Islamic center near Ground Zero.

Tea Party favorites Marco Rubio (R-FL), Rand Paul (R-KY), and Sharron Angle (R-NV) all have more than 4 times as many followers on the 2 platforms as their Democratic opponents, with between 83K and 143K followers and fans. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), another Tea Party leader, has 150K followers and fans. California Senate contender Carly Fiorina (R), true to her Silicon Valley background, has more than 300K Twitter followers, but that is due to her being the only candidate included in Twitter's "suggested user list" for a period of time. Among Senate candidates and senators, only former presidential candidate John McCain (R-AZ) has more of a Facebook following than the Tea Party candidates, with almost 700K Facebook fans. 

If this week has taught us anything, it's that different polls -- with different methodologies -- can paint wildly different pictures of the same race. Case in point: The New York governor's race and the 4 polls that surveyed it in the last 3 days.

A new poll out Friday shows New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) with a comfortable lead over developer Carl Paladino (R) and former Rep. Rick Lazio (R), who won the Conservative Party nomination.

The Marist College survey shows Cuomo leading Paladino among likely voters, 53% to 34%, with Lazio at 10%. Just 3% of voters are undecided. Among all voters, Cuomo has a larger lead over Paladino, 55% to 29%, with Lazio at 10%.

A silver lining for Paladino: The race is a dead heat among voters who said they were very enthusiastic about voting, while Cuomo has a huge lead among voters who said they were only "enthusiastic" or "not enthusiastic." It's possible that could be a sort of post-primary bounce, but it also is consistent with other polls nationwide that show Republican voters more energized than Democrats.

The Marist survey comes amid a series of polls released this week that have shown Cuomo with leads of anywhere between 6 and 33 points.

Good Friday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. On the agenda today: Sharron Angle looks like she has some momentum against Sen. Harry Reid, Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA) in trouble, and Delaware Senate nominee Chris Coons (D) and Florida Democrats get a boost from Vice Pres. Joe Biden.

Angle Momentum? Former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) has drawn even with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in the Nevada Senate race. A Mason Dixon poll out Friday found the 2 contenders tied at 43% among likely Nevada voters.

The poll indicates Angle is moving in the right direction. A Mason Dixon survey conducted Sept. 7-9 found her trailing Reid by 2 points.

The shift is mostly attributable to a shift in independents toward Angle. They backed her over Reid by a 20-point margin in the survey, double her lead among those voters in the previous survey.

Reid has a significant money advantage in the race, but Angle has been raising cash at a strong clip and is getting help from a bevy of third-party groups that are already on the air.

The survey polled 625 Nevada voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 4%. http://bit.ly/c96TOM

Dahlkemper Down: Things are not looking good for Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA). Her biggest problem is that she is being bombarded on the airwaves by both the NRCC and 60 Plus Association, the conservative's version of the AARP. The group is going up with a new ad Friday that seeks to tie Dahlkemper to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

"We warned Kathy Dahlkemper not to do it. Not to vote for a big government health care bill," the narrator says in the ad. "But Kathy Dahlkemper sided with Nancy Pelosi and did it anyway."

The ads appear to be moving numbers for the GOP. A Franklin Marshall poll earlier this week showed Dahlkemper trailing auto-dealer Mike Kelly by 4% among registered voters and 6% among likely voters. Most worrisome: Dahlkemper only pulled 38% in the poll.

Dahlkemper's PA 03 is currently listed 22nd on The Hotline's rankings of which seats are likely to switch party control this November. At this point, it looks like she needs to put her $1M bank account to work, and quickly. If she doesn't, the DCCC will have to reevaluate whether it is going to use the $1.2M in air time it has reserved for her in the final weeks before the election.

The Dahlkemper ad is one of four new ads the 60 Plus Association is going up with on Friday. They are also targeting state Sen. Roy Herron (D) in TN 08, Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) in IN 02 and Rep. John Boccieri (D) in OH 16.
http://bit.ly/9D13sD

Having trouble keeping track of all the IE ad buys? Make sure to check out The Hotline's IE tracker here: http://bit.ly/ayIgNd

The NRSC is going up with an ad in West Virginia on Friday, a sure sign that Republicans believe their chances in the state are on the rise.

The ad, which is backed by a $1.2M buy, hits on the campaign strategy businessman John Raese (R) has already been using: Tie Gov. Joe Manchin (D) to Pres. Obama.

"Joe Manchin supports Barack Obama's big government agenda," the narrator says. "Manchin supported Obama's stimulus plan, which wasted $800B...Big spending, more government, less freedom. We don't want a rubber stamp for Obama, we can't afford Joe Manchin in Washington."

The ad, first reported by The Fix, is a clear indication that Republicans are seeking to expand the Senate playing field into West Virginia, once considered a sure thing for Manchin and the Democrats. The ad is running for 2 weeks on radio and TV, including the expensive DC market, according to party sources.

Hotline On Call reported previously in our Path To Victory series that Republicans increasingly believe this race will tighten as we approach Election Day. They point to Pres. Obama's approval rating in the state, which is one of his lowest in the country. They also note Raese's personal fortune; he's spent $1M or more in his 4 previous statewide runs in West Virginia.

Check out the ad below:

Updated at 2:05 p.m. on Sept. 24 with more context from interview with Shepard Fairey.

Artist Shepard Fairey with his portrait of President Obama before it was installed at the National Portrait Gallery in Washington on Jan. 17, 2009. (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

The artist whose poster of Barack Obama became a rallying image during the hope-and-change election of 2008 says he understands why so many people have lost faith.

In an exclusive interview with National Journal on Thursday, Shepard Fairey expressed his disappointment with the president -- a malaise that seems representative of many Democrats who had great expectations for Obama.

Fairey explained that when he came up with the poster in 2008, he was trying to find a single image that embodied the issues he cared most about -- promoting health care, helping labor, and curtailing lobbyists. He likened the issues to projectiles.

"Looking at Obama's standpoint on various policies, it was like, 'Why throw all these particular projectiles over the wall... when I could put all those things in one projectile that I could hurl over the wall,'" Fairey said in a phone interview from Los Angeles, where he lives. "Obama was the delivery device in theory. Now, I realize that he maybe is not the correct delivery device, and I'll just deal with those issues separately."

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) has a narrow lead in her battle for a fourth term over former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R), according to a new Field Poll released today.

Boxer leads Fiorina among likely voters, 47% to 41%, a slightly larger lead than Boxer held in the previous poll, conducted in late June and early July, when Boxer led, 47% to 44%.

Boxer's favorable rating in the poll is up slightly, to 45%, but a plurality (48%) still view her unfavorably. In the previous poll, more than half of likely voters had an unfavorable impression of her. But for the second consecutive Field poll, more voters disapprove of the job Boxer is doing in the Senate than approve, after 41 consecutive polls from 1995 to 2010 in which pluralities gave her positive marks.

Aware that Boxer could be vulnerable on her image, Fiorina launched a new TV ad Thursday attacking the incumbent for her "arrogance."

But Fiorina has her own image problems. Just over a third of likely voters, 34%, view her favorably, the same percentage that had a favorable impression of her in the June-July poll. But during that time, Fiorina's unfavorable rating has risen from 29% to 38%.

Pres. Obama calls the time of the year when campaigns gear up right before an election the "silly season" of politics, and '10 is certainly no exception. Negativity is starting to show up with resounding force as campaigns and surrogates resort to name-calling, schoolyard taunts and photo-alternations featuring everything from pigs to human excrement.

And that's just New York.

Yet there are some gubernatorial races this cycle that are notable for their civility. Despite a whirlwind of negative attention around businessman Dan Maes (R) and Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) have kept their differences in the Colorado governor's race on the light side, sticking to policy issues. The main fire breathing comes between Maes and from former Rep. Tom Tancredo (C), the former Republican that pegged his candidacy as being an alternative to the much-embattled Maes.

How will the Tea Party effect the 2012 GOP field? In this installment of Hotline TV, Reid Wilson and Josh Kraushaar debate who the Tea Party will help and who it will hurt.

The Cook Political Report made ratings changes in 7 districts today (listed below), re-evaluating Democrats' chances of holding onto their competitive open seats. They note, "In 1994, 22 of Democrats' 25 marginal open seats fell to the GOP, and early this summer, Democrats set an ambitious goal of holding onto 8 of their 16 less-than-safe opens. But today, the chances of Democrats batting .500 in these districts looks awfully bleak." With these latest ratings changes, 10 Democratic open seats are poised to fall to Republicans, 4 are Toss Ups, and only 2 sit in the Lean Democratic column.

AL 05 OPEN (Griffith) Lean R to Likely R
IN 08 OPEN (Ellsworth) Lean R to Likely R
MI 01 (Stupak) Toss Up to Lean R
PA 07 OPEN (Sestak) Toss Up to Lean R
RI 01 OPEN (Kennedy) Likely D to Lean D
TN 08 OPEN (Tanner) Toss Up to Lean R
WA 03 OPEN (Baird) Toss Up to Lean R

Rep. Walt Minnick (ID) became the only Democrat in Congress to garner the endorsement of Citizens Against Government Waste on Thursday.

Citizens Against Government Waste is a leading government watchdog on fiscally conservative issues, like taxes and earmarks. The group frequently issues "Pork Alerts" when it sees wasteful government spending, and asks candidates to sign a "No Pork Pledge."

Citizens Against Government Waste has endorsed 32 candidates so far this year, but Minnick is the only Democrat.

"In this time of massive new government spending and bailouts, huge budget deficits, public debt, and inefficient bureaucracies, taxpayers need friends in Washington who will defend their interests, not the special interests," Thomas Schatz, president of CCAGW, said in a statement. "Rep. Minnick did not request any earmarks, and has signed CCAGW's 'No Pork Pledge.'"

The endorsement is yet another boost to Minnick's bid in conservative Idaho. Minnick is running against state Rep. Raul Labrador in his first re-election bid. He was once considered the most vulnerable Democrat in Congress because of the strong conservative leanings of his district. Minnick's chances were aided, however, by Labrador defeating establishment favorite Vaughn Ward in the GOP primary. In a Sept. 21 Mason Dixon Poll, Minnick led Labrador by a 46% to 36% margin. He has also picked up the support of the Chamber of Commerce and the Tea Party Express, although he rejected their endorsement.

Social conservatives have been concerned that their issues would be overlooked by the GOP's new election agenda, but Family Research Council chief Tony Perkins says he's content with the foundation the party has laid -- though he's not about to frame the new document on his office wall.

"When you compare this to the Contract in '94, this is an improvement. This is a good beginning document. It gives us a good foundation to build on," Perkins said in an interview, comparing the GOP's "Pledge to America" with the "Contract with America" from 16 years ago.

Religious and family values voters had issued several public warnings in recent weeks, urging House Republican leaders who were crafting the Pledge to include homages to their issues. The Pledge includes a specific proposal to prohibit federal funding of abortions and vague references to traditional marriage and family values, but little else.

"I'm not going to take this and make copies and send it to everybody for Christmas, but it's a good starting point," Perkins said. "This shows that the social conservative movement has gone beyond being a political part of the party, where they want us to turn out at election time, to where now they want us to be a part of the policy discussions."

Republicans and Democratic operatives largely concur on what the best campaign themes are for their respective parties in the midterm congressional elections -- government spending for the GOP and an old reliable, defending Social Security and Medicare for the Democrats -- according to the results of the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll. And surprisingly, neither party believes that repealing health care reform is a top argument for Republicans to make--at least not when compared to other arrows in their quiver.

This week, Democratic and Republican Political Insiders were asked to rank the top two arguments for their respective parties in the congressional midterm elections. For the Democrats, the options were: Republicans want to dismantle government programs such as Social Security and Medicare; Republicans favor tax cuts for the wealthy at the expense of the middle class; Republicans will return to the failed policies of the Bush administration; and, Republicans have nominated too many tea party candidates who are out of the mainstream.

Among the 102 Democratic Insiders who participated in the poll this week, 41% made GOP attacks on Social Security and Medicare their top choice, followed by 32% who picked tax cuts for the wealthy. While there have been reports that some party strategists want to try to label the GOP as the party of "tea," a tiny 5% of the Democratic Insiders rated this as their favorite course or action. Only 17% made it their second choice.

Independents are angry about the economy, and they're ready to take it out on the party in power. An exhaustive poll released today by the Pew Research Center shows independents are much more engaged than they usually are in midterm elections, and Democrats' recent advantage with this group has been turned on its head. Independent registered voters now lean 47% to 43% towards the GOP. As a Democratic pollster put it, "Independents are independent again instead of being a relatively reliable Democratic bloc."

More troubling for Pres. Obama and Democrats: the independents most fired up are moving away from them. Among independent likely voters, Republicans lead Democrats by 13 points, 49% to 36%. Just two years ago, Pres. Obama carried independents by 8 points, 53% to 45%, and in '06 independents broke overwhelmingly for Democrats, 57% to 39%, according to exit polls.

Democrats still outnumber Republicans in partisan identification in most surveys, including this one, but because Republicans appear more excited about this election, Pew predicts that they will equal Democrats as a share of the vote on Election Day. As a result, the GOP's advantage among independents may well be the tipping point in many state and local races this cycle.

Economic concerns are driving this shift: independents overwhelmingly identify unemployment and the economy as the most important problems facing the country (59% combined). Independents favor Republicans on economic issues by a 9-point margin, 43%-34%.

House Republicans are dominating the morning news cycle the unveiling of their "Pledge To America." The document is being labeled this cycle's version of the successful '94 "Contract With America."

A look at the plan reveals a few things worth keeping in mind when assessing how effective it will be: It's long, it's ambitious, it's poll tested and -- for the first time in a while -- it appears to have unified the GOP House leadership.

It's long. One of the most notable differences between the Pledge and the Contract With America is the length: The Pledge is 21 pages, the Contract was only a couple.

Length matters. Remember when Republicans were attacking Democrats for the health care reform bill being 2,000 pages? The most effective political ads are the ones that get the right message across in, often, less than 100 words. The Pledge is nearly 8K. It raises the question of who is going to read it.

It's Ambitious. While it may be long, it is also bold. Like the Contract, the Pledge does offer up a set of principles that voters can throw their weight -- and ballots -- behind in November. And while it may not be heavy on specifics, it does offer some specifics on issues like health care reform and taxes (more on that in a bit).

It is also worth noting how well the Pledge has been rolled out to the media. It was leaked last night, guaranteeing across the board coverage this morning. Democrats have been left playing defense, as most stories are solely focused on the specifics of the plan and not the Democratic response.

It's extremely poll tested. It is clear that the GOP did it's polling homework before drafting the pledge. The first issue touched upon in the Pledge is jobs, which -- combined with the economy -- is issue numero uno on voters' minds in every poll. The next issue, government spending, has been the focus of Republican attack ad, after ad, after ad. More, the Pledge's position of opposing tax hikes is a classic Republican line that usually tests well polls.

Similarly, one of the most concrete proposals in the Pledge is ending the TARP bailout funds. That is clearly a popular position; we've seen both and Republicans attack their opponents on the issue.

On health care, repealing and replacing "the government takeover of health care" sounds like it was ripped straight out of a poll. Notably, this section of the Pledge also focuses on jobs and taxes. In poll after poll of competitive House district, health care reform performs poorly so it's no surprise the GOP is campaigning on it.

It is worth noting, however, that not everything in the Pledge on health care tests well in public polling. Its call for repealing the law receives only lukewarm support in recent polls.

The "Plan to Reform Congress and Reform Trust" is in the same vein. One need look no further than recent congressional approval ratings to see that Americans believe Congress needs to clean up its act.

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is going on the air Thursday with an ad attacking Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) for her "arrogance."

The ad begins with Boxer asking a general to call her "senator" instead of "ma'am" in a committee hearing. Fiorina then delivers a brief, but poignant attack.

"Twenty-eight years in Washington and Sen. Boxer works hard for a title?" she says, set against an all black background. "I'll really go to work, to end the arrogance in Washington."

The commercial then goes silent with a picture of Boxer and the words "so wrong, too long" on the screen.

The ad touches on an undercurrent in the race: Boxer is running for a fourth term, something that a California senator hasn't done since Alan Cranston (D) in 1986. Republicans believe that's a problem for Boxer because Californians tire of career politicians and Fiorina is trying to show that Boxer has become a creature of Washington.

Boxer's camp immediately fired back at the ad. "We're happy to compare Barbara Boxer's record of delivering for Californians with Carly Fiorina's record of layoffs and shipping jobs overseas," campaign manager Rose Kapolczynski said in a statement. "Californians are fed up with the arrogance of CEOs who take multi-million dollar bonuses and golden parachutes while the middle class suffers."

Check out the ad below:

Good Thursday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the docket today: House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and House Republicans unveil their blueprint and the RGA makes a play in Minnesota.

Boehner's Time To Shine: House Republicans, pushing back on Democratic attacks that they're the "party of no,", will unveil a "blueprint" on Thursday for what they would do if they win Congressional majorities this fall.

The 21-page "Pledge To America" is a five-part outline. It doesn't offer many specifics, but it does lay out principles for what to expect if -- as many prognosticators predict -- the GOP takes back the House this fall.

The plan, which House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and other Republicans will formally unveil at 10 a.m. at a lumberyard and hardware store in Sterling, VA, emphasizes three areas in particular: repealing health care reform, cutting government spending and lots of tax breaks.

"Politicians in Washington have imposed an agenda that doesn't reflect the priorities of the people," the Republicans write in the introduction. "It's time to do away with the old politics: that much is clear. It's not enough, however, to swap out one set of leaders for another."

The most extensive section is on taxes. Democrats, they write, "continue to double down on their job killing policies." Republicans call for a permanent extension of the Bush tax cuts in the proposal. Any tax hike, they say, "is precisely the wrong thing to do." They argue that Democrats have passed $600B in gross tax increases.

The most specific proposal on taxes comes in the form of a tax break for small businesses. Republicans would seek a new tax deduction equal to 20% of a small business' income.

The plan also calls for repealing and replacing health care reform, which Republicans dub a "government takeover of health care."

On spending, Republicans call for cutting $100B in discretionary spending. They will also cut off money still being spent as part as the economic stimulus package, cancel TARP and reduce Congress' budget.

The GOP also calls for increased transparency and accountability, proposing posting all legislation online and allowing members the time to read every bill before voting on it.

In response, the DNC has put out a release titled, "The New Republican Agenda: Same As The Old Republican Agenda." They have also already launched a web video labeling the policies as the same policies of Pres. George W. Bush. "It's really the same failed agenda from the past," the narrator says.

Drilling Dayton: The stakes are getting higher in the Minnesota governor's race, as Republicans are seeking to undermine former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) with a new ad on Thursday. A conservative group largely funded by the RGA, Minnesota's Future, is going up with a spot that attacks Dayton on taxes, sources tell Hotline On Call.

"As governor, Dayton promised to raise taxes $5 billion and borrow even more for more state spending. Dayton's taxing, borrowing and spending will kill even more jobs," the narrator says. "Mark Dayton, he was one of American's worst senators, now he wants to be America's worst governor."

The ad is going up statewide at saturation levels. It is the second time Minnesota's Future has aired ads this year, both of which were largely funded by the RGA. The RGA has invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in the group.

The ad is an indication that Republicans believe they can hold on to the governorship in Minnesota with state Rep. Tom Emmer (R). Public polling shows this race to be tightening, which Dayton holding a small lead. Republicans say their internals, however, shows the race to be a dead heat and that the tax issue is an effective attack against Dayton.
AD: http://bit.ly/8XCW9w

Republican challenger Mike Fitzpatrick leads Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) by 14 points among likely voters in the 8th Congressional District, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll released Thursday.

The poll, which surveyed 464 registered voters last week and has a margin of error of +/-4.5%, shows Fitzpatrick leading Murphy by 10 points among registered voters, 46% to 36%. The split grows 4 points when only likely voters are considered, a sign that the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats is again a factor in the race as it is midterm election nationwide.

The numbers will likely send shivers down the spines of Democrats everywhere because many pundits have dubbed the 8th District race a national bellwether. Murphy, a 2-term incumbent, represents a suburban Philadelphia district that gave Pres. Obama 54% of the vote in '08, and its leftward shift along with the rest of the city's suburbs have been the force behind Democratic victories in Pennsylvania the last 8 years.

Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) are locked in a dead heat in the California gubernatorial race, though both candidates are more unpopular than ever, according to a new Field Poll released today.

Brown and Whitman are tied, 41% to 41%, with 18% undecided. This represents little movement since the last Field poll, conducted in late June and early July, which showed Brown with the narrowest of leads, 44% to 43%.

The percentage of likely voters who are undecided has jumped from 13% in July and 11% in March. That comes amid spikes in the candidates' unpopularity.

Brown is now viewed favorably by 44%, and unfavorably by 47%, of likely voters. This is the first time in the campaign that more voters have had an unfavorable impression of him in the Field Poll.

The news isn't better for Whitman. Despite spending more money than any self-funder in political history (with 40 days still to go until Election Day), Whitman's favorables are stuck squarely at 40% for the third consecutive poll, going back to March. A plurality (47%) of likely voters now views her unfavorably, up from 42% in July and just 27% in March.

A third round of polls from CNN and Time magazine shows Democrats running for Senate in four key states facing headwinds that could determine which party controls the upper chamber of Congress next year.

In each of the four states surveyed, the Democratic either leads or ties the GOP candidate. But, when a likely-voter screen is applied, the GOP takes the lead in three of the four races.

-- Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) leads Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) among all voters, 47% to 44%. But among LVs, Buck grabs the lead, 49% to 44%.

-- In PA, Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) are tied, 45% to 45%, among registered voters. Toomey leads, 49% to 44%, among likely voters.

-- Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) has a narrow, 48% to 46%, lead over businessman Ron Johnson (R) among all voters, but Johnson posts a 51% to 46% advantage when a likely-voter screen is applied.

-- Finally, in DE, New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D) holds a commanding lead, 59% to 34%, over marketing consultant Christine O'Donnell (R) among all voters. But his lead shrinks from 26 to 16 points (55% to 39%) among likely voters. (Interestingly, the poll shows that Rep. Mike Castle (R), who was defeated by O'Donnell last week in the GOP primary, would lead Coons among LVs, 55% to 37%.)

AK SEN: Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski's announcement Friday that she would run in November's general election as a write-in candidate creates a 3-way contest that adds a degree of uncertainty to the race, but she faces a decidedly steep hill. Running as a write-in candidate is a notoriously difficult proposition. The last candidate to wage a successful write-in campaign for the Senate was the late Strom Thurmond of South Carolina in 1954. No write-in candidate has ever won statewide office in Alaska.

Murkowski is not without her advantages. She is well-known, retains a reservoir of good will among voters and has money in the bank. But, she is also running without the support of the state or national GOP, which has backed Tea Party favorite Joe Miller, who ousted Murkowski in the Aug. 24 primary. Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams is the Democratic nominee. Still, Murkowski won't be able to run on her seniority, and she must make sure that voters know that they must write her name on the ballot.

The next two weeks will shed some light on whether Murkowski has a shot and that will depend on whether voters see her as a mainstream Republican or as a sore loser.

RI GOV: Rhode Island may be a Democratic stronghold, but the state has had a Republican governor for 22 of the last 26 years. It is a safe bet that the Ocean State will not have a Republican Governor in January. There is a Republican in this open-seat race, John Robitaille, but he is destined to finish third. This contest is really between Democratic state Treas. Frank Caprio and former Republican Senator-turned-independent Lincoln Chafee.

In this installment of Hotline TV, Reid Wilson and Josh Kraushaar take a look at the Governorships that are most likely to switch party control.

In a state tarnished by government scandals, corruption has been a common theme in the New Mexico gubernatorial race: Each candidate insists she is the one to end corruption, and each has gotten bogged down in mini-scandals during the campaign. It's not immediately evident whose campaign is suffering more due to the charges -- or whether they are even hurting either candidate.

Since the beginning of the campaign, Doña Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R) has sought to tie LG Diane Denish (D) to Gov. Bill Richardson's (D) administration -- coining the term "Richardson/Denish Administration" -- and to the accompanying scandals from pay-to-play charges to criminal investigations and allegations of cronyism.

Denish has tried to separate herself from Richardson while still running on her record as LG. In a recent Albuquerque Journal profile, Denish took pains to put distance between herself and the Governor. "He's very much a boy's boy, a man's man," she said. "And many of the people who have been investigated, I have never met or come across. I've brushed with people that he's appointed as part of the agency process or the board process. But have I ever been sitting out on the back porch smoking cigars at the mansion? No."

Both candidates give the issue of corruption prominent billing on their websites. Denish takes the angle of focusing on her record. "Diane has a proven record of tackling corruption," it says under "government reform" on her website. "When a member of the Las Cruces Housing Authority came to Diane about allegations of misuse of taxpayer dollars on vehicles, high salaries and other perks instead of offering affordable housing, Diane took action."

We knew it was coming, but this week we finally saw two sophomore House Democrats use the nuclear option in separate attempts to annihilate their opponents' credibility. In Florida's 22nd district, Rep. Ron Klein (D) launched an ad featuring footage of former Army Lt. Col. Allen West (R) railing against a "tyrannical government" and implying West wants to "take up arms against the government."

And in Pennsylvania's 10th District, endangered Rep. Chris Carney (D) is up on air letting voters know former federal prosecutor Tom Marino (R) "served as a reference for a convicted felon who wanted a casino license."

Of serious challengers to Democrats, West is the best-funded in the country thanks to his viral emergence in the online Tea Party sphere, and Marino is one of the worst-funded thanks to an early cold shoulder from the NRCC and time off the trail following a car accident. But both are running neck and neck in the polls with their opponents, and Marino is running in a much more Republican district. All year, both Klein and Carney have kept these ads in reserve to move numbers in their favor in late September, so watch for new polling in early October. If these attacks don't work, what will?

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) embarks on his much discussed month-long campaign swing today, with a stop in Los Angeles for gubernatorial candidate and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R). His trip is notable mostly because of his planned Oct. 4th appearance in Des Moines for Terry Branstad's (R) Iowa gubernatorial campaign.

Christie's Iowa visit, coupled with a recent RGA film touting him as a rising party star and a fiscal hawk, prompted all manner of 2012 presidential speculation when the swing was announced in early Sept.

But in a relatively candid interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday, Christie admitted that he simply "wasn't ready" to embark on a presidential campaign. In as unambiguous a statement as possible, Christie firmly denied interest in the '12 race. When asked who the GOP should nominate, he replied, "It's absolutely not me."

"I'm not ready. I'm not," he added, brushing aside comparisons to Pres. Obama's meteoric rise from state legislator to senator to President.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is leaning against supporting the DISCLOSE Act, dealing a major blow to Democrats' chances of passing the campaign finance legislation aimed at responding to the Supreme Court's Citizens United v. FEC decision earlier this year.

At this point, Collins will likely oppose a cloture vote on the bill, according to a source familiar with her thinking. That means Democrats will have to flip Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) in order to get the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) announced this week that he is planning a Thursday vote on the legislation. In July, Democrats earned 58 votes on the measure -- 2 short of overcoming a Republican filibuster. Reid changed his vote to a "no" in order to bring the measure up again.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) was absent from the vote in July, but has since said he'll support the measure -- putting the Democrats at 59. With Collins and Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) opposing the bill, Democrats will need the support of Snowe.

"Though Sen. Collins supports campaign finance reform, she opposed this exact legislation earlier this year for several reasons," Kevin Kelley, a spokesman for Collins, told Hotline On Call. "She is disappointed that the Democratic Leadership appears intent on bringing this legislation to the floor again."

Nurse Renee Ellmers has gone up an ad in her bid against Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-NC) that seeks to make the proposed construction of a mosque near Ground Zero a central issue of the race.

The ad is one of the most striking we've seen on the mosque issue. It plays like a history lesson at first, then says that the Ground Zero mosque would be a "victory Mosque" for terrorists.

"After the Muslims conquered Jerusalem, and Cordoba, and Constantinople they built victory mosques," the narrator says. "And, now, they want to build a mosque by Ground Zero. Where does Bob Etheridge stand? He won't say. Won't speak out. Won't take a stand."

Ellmers, who has been endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), is up on cable with the ad.

The race between Ellmers and Etheridge in NC 02 has been considered one that the Democrats are likely to hold. The district does, however, have a GOP lean, and the ad is certainly an attempt by Ellmers to earn free media and rile up the GOP base. Etheridge has also given the GOP some ammunition, having been caught pushing a GOP videographer earlier this year.

Check it out below.

Despite being stripped of her leadership position, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) said Wednesday that she will rejoin the Senate GOP caucus if her write-in re-election campaign is successful in November.

"I am a Republican," Murkowski said on MSNBC. "I will be back with the Republican conference. I am a right wing candidate...I'm not flying under any different flag."

Since Murkowski lost the GOP primary to attorney Joe Miller, the Republican establishment has turned on her and thrown its support behind Miller. On Tuesday, Murkowski was stripped from her post as ranking member of the powerful Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

Other Republicans, most notably Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), have viciously criticized Murkowski for conducting a write-in campaign. Her campaign, they reason, will likely steal votes from Miller in the general election, giving an advantage for Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D). DeMint went so far as to call Murkowski as "big tent hypocrite" in a fundraising email for Miller.

Murkowski's write in campaign is a long shot -- the last successful Senate write in campaign occurred in 1954. But Murkowski has $1.8M in her bank account and her campaign is currently pulling together new strategies for the general election.

The Murkowski campaign is seeking to engage voters by asking them to submit jingles and other catchphrases that she can use in her campaign materials. They are also considering creating LiveStrong-like rubber bracelets with the senator's name that voters can wear into the voting booth, according to sources on the campaign.

Murkowski also went up with a new ad on Tuesday night, a 60-second spot that features Murkowski speaking directly to the camera and explaining why she is running as a write-in candidate.

Two independent polls out Wednesday bear good news for Republicans Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate race and Mike Kelly in his PA 03 race against Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D).

The polls show that the Democratic brand suffering in the Keystone State, and that it may be fertile ground for Republican pick ups this fall.

A Quinnipiac survey of likely Pennsylvania voters finds Toomey leading Rep. Joe Sestak by 7%, 50% to 43%. That is the first time Toomey has hit 50% in a poll this year.

On the plus side for Democrats, Sestak is not out of the game and has a similar net approval to Toomey -- 44% view him favorably compared to 34% view him unfavorably. Sestak has trailed Toomey by a larger margin in most surveys this year.

But there are troubling signs for Sestak deeper in the poll. Pres. Obama has only a 40% approval rating in the state, according to the poll, while 56% disapprove of his job performance.

"Among likely voters, President Barack Obama is a drag on Sestak's candidacy," said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown. "The president has a low approval rating and voters want their new senator to oppose, rather than support, the presidents policies."

In PA 03, a Franklin and Marshall survey of registered voters finds Kelly leading Dahlkemper by 4 points, 42% to 38%. That's a strikingly low re-elect number for an incumbent and the pollster noted that as the likely voter screen became more restrictive in the sample, Kelly's lead expanded to six points.

Dahlkemper has become a top target for the GOP, as conservative groups have targeted the GOP-leaning district. The NRCC has also reserved nearly $600K in air time in the district, while the DCCC has reserved $1M in air time to defend Dahlkemper.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted Sept. 15-19 and surveyed 684 likely voters. It has a margin of error of +/-3.8%. The Franklin and Marshall poll was conducted Sept. 14-19, surveyed 482 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/-4.5%.

Good Wednesday Morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup: What Hotline On Call is watching today: Tea Partier Carl Paladino is surprisingly close to Andrew Cuomo in the New York governor's race, Illinois shaping up to be a marquee Senate race and -- after a day off -- the White House goes back into campaign mode.

Paladino: Here's the poll shocker of the day: Carl Paladino (R), who upset former Rep. Rick Lazio (R) in the New York gubernatorial GOP primary last week, is within striking distance of AG Andrew Cuomo (D), according to a Quinnipiac Poll out Wednesday morning. Paladino trails Cuomo 49% to 43% in the survey.

The poll is a striking example of the national mood this year - a Tea Partier doing better-than-expected against a candidate hailing from a leading political dynasty. Paladino was widely dismissed for bizarre statements in the primary, then he went on to beat Lazio by more than 20 points. The Republican is enjoying overwhelming support from New York's fairly small Tea Party contingent, which make up 18 percent of the likely electorate. They back him by a 79-point margin, 87% to 8%, over Cuomo.

Paladino's surge is being driven by voter anger, and not dissatisfaction towards Cuomo. The Republican used a "We're mad as hell" campaign slogan, and frequently said he wants to "take a bat" to the current government system. His win in the primary shocked both the establishment and the media, but this poll suggests that he has hit a nerve.

There's also a huge gender gap in the poll: While women back Cuomo by a 54% to 34% margin, Paladino is winning among men -- 49% to 46%.

"Cuomo might be a victim of his own excess," said Maurice Carroll, Quinnipiac's polling director. "Politicians and polls have depicted him so relentlessly as a sure thing that he might be a victim of the throw the bums out attitude that hits incumbents in this angry year."

It is also worth noting, however, that the Quinnipiac poll didn't include Lazio. Lazio may appear on the Conservative Party ballot line in November, and would likely take some support from Paladino.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted Sept. 16-20 and surveyed 751 likely New York voters. It has a margin of error of +/-3.6%.

"Friends Don't Let Friends Vote Alexi": The fight for Pres. Obama's former Senate seat is heating up and quickly becoming the battleground race this year. National Democrats and Republicans laid down their stakes in the race on Tuesday, as the DSCC went up with its first IE ad attacking Rep. Mark Kirk, and the Kirk camp responded with a similar size ad buy starting today, Hotline On Call reported. The Kirk ad is funded by some of the $3.4M that the NRSC has committed to the coordinated campaign for Kirk.

But the real eye-opener in the race is the new ad by the GOP-backed American Crossroads organization, which has gone to Illinois as part of its ad blitz in key Senate races. The group is spending nearly $500K on a hard-hitting ad against Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias -- one of the most effective ads we've seen against Giannoulias this cycle.

"Alexi Giannoulias, he's quite a driver," the narrator says. "He helped dive his family's Broadway Bank into the ditch," the narrator says. "Friends don't let friends vote Alexi."
Crossroads ad: http://bit.ly/9zGSFZ
Kirk ad: http://bit.ly/byy1Er
DSCC ad: http://bit.ly/aUvNW0

Rep. Mark Kirk (R) will counter Democratic spending on the airwaves in the Illinois Senate race by airing his own ads starting Wednesday, sources tell Hotline On Call.

Kirk has purchased between $225K and $300K worth of air time in the Chicago market starting tomorrow and running through the beginning of next week. That ad buy mirrors the $250K the DSCC purchased in Chicago to air its first attack on Kirk on Tuesday.

The dueling ad buys indicate that the Illinois Senate race is quickly becoming ground zero for both parties. And, because of the cost of advertising in Illinois, the race promises to be one of the costliest this year.

Democrats showed Tuesday that they are willing to spend to defend the seat once held by Pres. Obama, while Republicans are increasingly confident in Kirk's chances against Democrat Alexi Giannoulias.

The money behind Kirk's ad buy came from the NRSC as part of its coordinated campaign efforts. The Republican committee has pledged $3.4M in coordinated campaign efforts in the race, which means that the ads are produced by the Kirk campaign but paid for by the NRSC

The RNC has sent more than $129K to an Anchorage law firm to cover legal bills incurred during former Gov. Sarah Palin's (R-AK) run for vice president, a senior party official tells Hotline On Call.

The party cut the check on Sept. 1 to Clapp, Peterson, Van Flein, Tiemessen & Thorsness LLC, an Anchorage law firm that defended Palin from myriad ethics charges following her campaign. Political opponents in Alaska filed complaints against Palin surrounding her travel during and after the campaign.

Palin cited those complaints, and the amount of time they consumed, when she resigned from office last summer.

"The disbursement relates to legal fees incurred during the summer and fall of 2008, when Democrats engaged in a partisan witch hunt against Gov. Palin. Based on conversations in 2008, the RNC decided to step in to help," said Doug Heye, the RNC's communications director.

An email to SarahPAC seeking comment went unreturned.

Senate Democrats failed Tuesday to get the 60 votes needed to proceed to the defense authorization bill, effectively shelving until after the midterm elections debate on hot-button political issues such as immigration and the repeal of the 1993 law banning gays from serving openly in the military.

The Senate voted 56-43 on a cloture motion offered by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

Democrats needed support from their entire caucus and at least 1 Republican to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to the defense bill. But among the Democrats, Arkansas Sens. Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor voted against cloture and Reid voted no to allow Democrats to reconsider the vote later.

In addition, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who was considered by Democrats as their best bet for a "yes" vote, said this morning she feared Senate leaders would not allow adequate time for a wide range of amendments to be debated on the bill.

Seeking to respond to the influx in spending from conservative-leaning groups this cycle, left-leaning third party organizations are trying new strategies in order to stretch their dollars to compete.

Across the board, Democrat-backed third party groups acknowledge that there is no way they can match the funds of organizations that are supporting the GOP, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 60 Plus, Americans for Prosperity and American Crossroads.

As a result, groups that have had large footprints in previous cycles like MoveOn and labor unions are largely abandoning the TV airwaves so far, choosing instead to focus on mobilizing their members in grassroots efforts. In some cases, they are even going so far as to campaign on undermining the conservative third party groups.

"Our focus and the unique factor that we have is our grassroots power," said Eddie Vale, a spokesman for the AFL-CIO. "When you look at our members, retirees, and folks in their households we can get in touch with 17M folks. Instead of seeing a 30-second spot on TV, we're having a conversation at a work site or sending a mail piece from their union."

One new strategy on the left has come from MoveOn, which has taken to both targeting Republicans and the third party groups that back them. MoveOn went on the air last week in New Hampshire targeting the Republican Senate nominee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

"They say you can judge a person by the company they keep," the narrator says in the New Hampshire spot. "Well Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte (R) is getting a million dollars worth of help from the Chamber of Commerce, a group recently accused of tax fraud."

"If Kelly Ayotte's on their side," the ad concludes, "do you think she'd be on yours?"

Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski's decision to wage a write-in campaign in the Alaska Senate race has raised the question of how her presence will impact the contest. Murkowski's ability to pull support from attorney Joe Miller (R) could hurt his chances and boost the hopes of Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D). Also unclear is how effective Murkowski's pursuit of Democrats and independents will be. The biggest question mark is whether she has any chance of winning and what her path to victory might look like.

Alaska will likely remain under the media's microscope over the next 6 weeks, as observers and pundits continue to assess the effects of Murkowski's move. Murkowski's case is unique since she is embarking on a write-in bid. But not to be overlooked are a handful of other statewide races featuring a third candidate on the ballot. Here's a rundown:

RI GOV

Former Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I) has a real shot at victory here. The general election is shaping up as a 2-man race between Chafee and Treas. Frank Caprio (D), with GOP nominee John Robitaille (R) running third. National Democrats have been concerned about Chafee, as the DGA has gone after the former Republican. The latest sign that Chafee's presence is having an impact: the AFL-CIO, which usually backs Democrats will remain neutral in the race.

In a recent report, Robitaille said Caprio, through an intermediary, offered him a deal to leave the race. Another report revealed that Caprio met with RNC officials earlier this year. Keep an eye on whether the news will have an impact on Caprio's numbers and what it means for Chafee and Robitaille.

FL SEN

No other independent has received as much national attention this cycle as Gov. Charlie Crist (I). Crist broke ranks with the Republican party in April to pursue an independent bid after former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) emerged as the Republican front-runner.

Pennsylvania GOP gubernatorial nominee Tom Corbett has more than double the amount of money in his bank account as Democratic opponent Dan Onorato, according to campaign finance reports filed Tuesday.

The GOP attorney general had $7.7M available as of Sept. 13, says campaign manager Brian Nutt. That's over $4M more than the $3.36M Onorato says he has on hand, according to fundraising reports provided by his campaign.

Corbett's advantage is due in part to superior fundraising over the summer. The Republican's campaign reported it raised $6.1M since June 8, compared to Onorato's $5M.

Nutt also said that Corbett has raised $1M in the week since the reporting deadline.

Corbett's spokesman, Kevin Harley, declined to comment on Onorato's fundraising but said Corbett's strong returns show the strength of his campaign.

"We can only control the amount of money we raise and can't speak to the Dan Onorato fundraising operation," Harley said. "Obviously people across Pennsylvania believe in Tom Corbett's plan of reducing state spending, creating jobs and reducing taxes. And they're rallying to that message both in terms of volunteers and financial support."

State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) has a 10-point lead over Rep. Joseph Cao (R) in one of the Democrats' best pick up opportunities of the cycle, according to Richmond's internal campaign polling.

The polling, leaked to Hotline On Call, shows Richmond leading Cao 45% to 35%. Democrats note that Cao's 35% is one of the lowest re-elect numbers they have seen for an incumbent this cycle.

Of course, the survey results should be viewed skeptically because they are from a Democratic polling firm. They suggest, however, that Cao still faces a tough slog in a New Orleans district that gave Pres. Obama 75% in '08. The Richmond campaign also recently received a boost from Obama, who endorsed him last week.

Mine company owner John Raese (R) has taken a lead over Gov. Joe Manchin (D) in the West Virginia Senate race for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat, according to new survey out Tuesday.

The PPP Poll found Raese leading Manchin 46% to 43%, the first time the Republican has led in the race.

The survey should be taken with a grain of salt. PPP conducts its surveys with automated callers, otherwise known as robo-polling or IVR. Further, the poll was conducted last Saturday and Sunday, which may cast doubts on its findings. PPP surveyed 1,397 likely voters and the poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.6%.

All that being said, the poll is notable because most observers believed that Manchin's popularity put the West Virginia Senate race firmly in the Democrats' column. That was reflected in the PPP poll, which found that West Virginians gave him a 59% approval rating.

As Hotline On Call noted last week in our Path To Victory features on the race, Republicans believe the souring environment for Democrats puts this race in play. Pres. Obama's disapproval rating was 64% in the PPP survey and Republicans claim it has been higher in their internals. Further, Raese has done everything he can so far to nationalize the race.

Democrats will undoubtedly push back against these numbers. Internal polling shared with Hotline On Call showed Manchin leading the race.

Updated, 11:15 a.m.

The DSCC is going up on air in a fifth state on Tuesday, airing an ad targeting Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) on unemployment.

The ad is the latest glimpse into the DSCC's fall strategy. The Illinois Senate race between Kirk and Alexi Giannoulias (D) for Pres. Obama's former Senate seat is one of the tightest this fall, and Democrats' commitment to Giannoulias show they believe they can win despite the party's flagging fortunes up-ballot.

The DSCC is also getting a jump on the NRSC with the ad; the Republican committee has yet to go on the air in Illinois. It has, however, committed $3.4M in coordinated campaign funds for Kirk.

"We've heard a lot about Mark Kirk's problems lately," the ad's narrator says. "But Kirk doesn't know much about ours. On unemployment, Kirk said, 'I've heard very little...I have a very high-income district.'"

The 5 states where the DSCC has gone on the air show a mix of defense and offense. It has aired ads to defend Democratic held seats in Pennsylvania, Colorado and, now, Illinois. It has targeted Republican held open seats in Missouri and Delaware.

The DSCC is spending about $250K on airing the ad in the expensive Chicago market, according to a GOP source who monitors ad buying, a relatively modest investment for now.

NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said that despite the ad, the Democrats have not invested seriously in Giannoulias' campaign. "After they saw what happened to Broadway Bank investors and the Bright Start families, is it any wonder that national Democrats don't seem to trust Alexi Giannoulias with their money?" he said.

Check out the ad below:

The number of competitive House races continues to grow, a sure sign that the GOP is well positioned to make significant gains this year, according to The Hotline's latest House race rankings out Tuesday.

The rankings show that fully 60 districts -- 55 of which are held by Democrats -- are squarely in play. Another two dozen districts are now in the "Other Races to Watch" category, bringing the play field to about 85 districts.

The news isn't all bad for Democrats. As The Hotline's Tim Sahd notes, Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) has seen her stock improve as a barrage of early TV ads have helped them overcome the toxic environment in their districts. Others, like Rep. Phil Hare (D-IL), have not been so lucky.

Fresh off a strong fundraising kick, American Crossroads, a conservative 527, is launching an ad blitz in key Senate races on Tuesday.

American Crossroads is spending nearly $1.9M on the ads, which includes keeping ads in Colorado and Missouri on the air and going up with new ads in New Hampshire and Nevada, sources tell Hotline On Call.

The ads are significant because they indicate that American Crossroads, which has already had a large impact on airwaves in Senate battleground states, now has the resources to play through the election. On Monday, the group reported having raised $2.6M in August and having $7.1M in its war chest.

The blitz also shows that American Crossroads appears to be going on both offense and defense. Missouri and New Hampshire are GOP held seats. The group's sister, issue-based organization -- Crossroads GPS -- has also spent significantly on holding onto Kentucky.

Meanwhile, targeting Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in Nevada and Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in Colorado, show the group is also going after Democrat held seats.

The new Nevada ad, which has $320K behind it, hits Reid on jobs. It uses Reid's words against him. "I think it is my job to create jobs and I've done my best," Reid says in the ad.

In New Hampshire, American Crossroads hits Rep. Paul Hodes for voting for the economic stimulus package. "Hodes voted for the pork-filled stimulus bill," the narrator says. The group is spending $643K on airing that ad.

That message is similar to the Colorado ad the group is keeping on the air with another $533K ad buy -- bringing its total for airing this ad to over $1M. That ad blasts Bennet for voting to spend "$2.5B per day."

The Missouri ad that is staying up on the air ties Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) to Reid, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Pres. Obama. American Crossroads is putting another $381K behind keeping that ad on the air, bringing its total there to about $700K.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. On tap today: Democrats try to move numbers in Maine after Paul LePage's (R) testy presser last week, attention shifts to the Senate for a politically charged vote this afternoon, and a "compromise" gap among voters.

Remember The Maine: Are Democrats worried about losing a governorship in Maine, which hasn't elected a Republican to head the state since 1992? From their actions, absolutely.

Democrats are going after Waterville Mayor and gubernatorial nominee Paul LePage (R) following his storming out of a press conference last week. The DGA is airing an ad on Tuesday that hits LePage on several issues and seeks to paint LePage as out of the Maine mainstream.

"Here in Maine we believe in hard work, a fair shake and protecting people's basic rights," the ad, provided to Hotline On Call, says. "And Paul LePage? He says our anti-discrimination law, the Maine Human Rights Act, ought to be rolled back. He believes abortion should be illegal in nearly every case and opposes a woman's right to choose. And he supports teaching creationism in our public schools."

The ad is the first the DGA has aired since the press conference where LePage lost his temper and stormed out of the room. Democrats believe that the press conference incident could be a huge boost to Libby Mitchell's (D) campaign. The message of the ad is clear: LePage isn't a moderate Republican in the mold of Sens. Olympia Snowe (R) and Susan Collins (R).

Most polling on the race has shown LePage with a significant lead, but almost all of those were conducted before the press conference. It's cheap to advertise in Maine, so the ad is likely a move by the DGA to see if it can boost Mitchell's prospects and bring Maine back in the Democratic fold. But when we're talking about Maine being a big priority for the DGA, you know it's going to be a big year for GOP gubernatorial candidates... The DGA ad: http://bit.ly/bJLF46

Don't Ask, Don't Tell: Attention will shift away from the campaign trail briefly today, as the Senate takes up the annual military authorization bill at around 2:15. The bill contains 2 controversial provisions on hot-button political issues. One would allow the repeal of the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy and another that would provide a path to citizenship for immigrants who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children.

Here's the kicker: At this point, it is still unknown if Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has the votes to get the measure through. Critics say the immigration provision is a political ploy aimed at shoring up Hispanic support for Reid in his tough re-election bid against Sharron Angle (R).

Reid needs at least 1 Republican and a united Democratic caucus to help him overcome a GOP filibuster. At this point, he doesn't appear to have it. Watch these senators as the voting takes place: Susan Collins (R-ME), George Voinovich (R-OH) and Jim Webb (D-VA). (Olympia Snowe (R-ME), has already said that she'll oppose the measure.)

The DCCC outraised the NRCC in August, boosting the Democrats' efforts at retaining the House this fall.

The DCCC is reporting having pulled in $8.32M in August, according to numbers provided to Hotline On Call. The NRCC will report $6.64M.

Those numbers are almost an exact reversal of how the committees performed in July. That month, the NRCC outraised the DCCC by a $8.56M to $6.22M margin.

The DCCC boasts a strong cash on hand advantage over the NRCC as it heads into the final stretch of the campaign. It has $39M in his bank account to the NRCC's $25.6M.

The Republican committee, however, managed to hold on to more money during August. The NRCC only spent $3.1M, while the DCCC dished out $5.08M.

The DCCC's report follows the DSCC also reporting a strong month on Monday, hauling in $7.42M to the NRSC's $6.05M.

The DCCC's separate political wings are engaged in their first argument over one of their vulnerable candidates as the independent expenditure division begins pulling back funding while the coordinated division is pouring more money into the race.

Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN) is the source of the dispute. The committee's independent expenditure wing has cancelled their advertising buys in the state's 9th District for 2 weeks in mid-October. But the coordinated side, which is not allowed to discuss strategy with their independent expenditure counterpart, believes Hill is still deserving of spending.

The IE's decision is a significant blow to Hill's chances. While the independent expenditure side can spend unlimited amounts, the coordinated side of the DCCC can spend about $87K, according to FEC rules.

The DCCC is making other alterations in key districts, in some cases acknowledging an incumbent's weakness, and therefore saving money, while in other cases operating from a position of strength.

Most notably, the committee is shifting money in Ohio's 15th District, where Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH) faces a tough rematch of her '08 campaign against state Sen. Steve Stivers. The DCCC is cancelling ad buys from Oct. 5-18 and moving that money to the final 2 weeks of the campaign. That means, if the committee goes ahead with its reservations, they will be blanketing the Columbus area with 1400 points between Oct. 19-26 and 1500 points between Oct. 27 and Nov. 2.

If this past weekend is an indication, a trend appears to be forming on the right in IE spending. In at least 10 districts, the NRCC has followed major spending by right-leaning third party group.

Now, it is illegal for the NRCC to coordinate with any of these groups, and we're not suggesting that they are. However, the trend does indicate the NRCC may be capitalizing on districts where conservative groups have already been knocking incumbent Democrats.

Take Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's (D) AZ 01. 60 Plus, a group that is a conservative alternative to AARP, reported $350K for an ad in the district on Sept. 11. The NRCC followed suit, reporting media spending in the district on Sept. 14 and Sept. 17.

This could just seem like a scene from "A Beautiful Mind" while looking for patterns but the same thing has happened in other districts. The NRCC's ads against Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL) also followed $350K worth of work from the 60 Plus.

This pattern has also occurred PA 03, PA 11, and TN 08. In TN 08, there had not been any spending in the district for IEs since Aug. 3 when physician Ron Kirkland (R) lost in the primary. During the same period that 60 Plus aired ads in AZ 01 and others, farmer Stephen Fincher (R) received a boost of negative ads against his opponent from the same organization. On Sept. 14, the NRCC spent almost $90K in IEs for negative ads in the district. (Take a look at our IE Tracker on these districts here.)

The DSCC had another strong month fundraising in August, outraising its GOP counterpart by more than $1M.

The DSCC will reporting hauling in $7.42M for August, according to numbers provided to Hotline On Call. The NRSC is reporting $6.05M. Those numbers represent the sixth time in 7 months that the DSCC has outraised the NRSC.

"Democratic activism continues to grow," said Deirdre Murphy, the DSCC's press secretary. "The committee and Democratic Senate candidates are in strong positions to wage competitive races in our targeted races."

The DSCC benefited from a $1M contribution from Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) in August. Schumer also gave the DSCC another $1M in September.

The NRSC, however, came out of August with more money in the bank. The Republican committee will report $24.5M in its war chest, compared to $22.92M for the Democrats.

That is in large part a result of Republicans not spending nearly as much as Democrats in August. The NRSC doled out $2.6M compared to the DSCC's $6.97M.

"It speaks volumes about the tremendous energy and enthusiasm we're seeing from the Republican grassroots that in the slow summer month of August, the NRSC would have its most successful fundraising period to date," Rob Jesmer, the NRSC's executive director, said in a statement.

Still, Democrats are quick to point out that they have outraised the Republicans so far this cycle -- bringing in $85.81M to the Republicans $78.71M. Democrats note that in '06, when they were on the way back to the majority, they outraised their Republican counterparts.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) is heading to New Hampshire next week, a trip sure to raise speculation about Barbour's future political intentions.

Barbour, the chairman of the RGA, will be attending a campaign event for Republican gubernatorial candidate John Stephen next Monday, Sept. 27, according to the Stephen campaign.

Count this as another sign that Barbour appears to be edging closer to running in '12. Recently, Barbour mailed an introductory mail piece into Iowa and he continues to campaign around the country for Republican candidates not limited to gubernatorial races.

New Hampshire Republicans are touting the visit as a sign that the governor's race between Stephen and Gov. John Lynch (D) is tightening. Lynch has led in most polls this year so far, but the trend lines are moving in the GOP's direction.

Barbour isn't the only White House hopeful heading to New Hampshire soon. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) will be there this weekend for the state GOP convention and to fundraise for Stephen.

Despite rumblings of another so-called "Year of the Woman," there may actually be fewer women in the Senate come January, based on current forecasts. And '12 doesn't bode well for female incumbents either.

There are currently 17 women serving in the Senate. Odds are against Sen. Lisa Murkowski(R-AK) winning as a write-in candidate. Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is trailing badly. Thus there will likely be two fewer returning female senators come January. And Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) has a tough battle as well, which could reduce the women's caucus by 3.

The female Senate caucus membership may not necessarily decrease next year. Former New Hampshire AG Kelly Ayotte (R) is favored to win and former NV Assemb. Sharron Angle's (R) race in Nevada is neck-and-neck. But former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) is currently trailing in Connecticut polls, despite favorable trends. Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) is struggling in her bid. Media sensation '08 nominee Christine O'Donnell (R) is an underdog in Delaware. In North Carolina, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) is a long shot, as is Iowa's former U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D).

A lack of Senate frontrunners doesn't mean women can't win statewide races. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) are safe as houses in their bids this year. In California, both Senate candidates are female. There are a record number of female match-ups in the gubernatorial races, and several female frontrunners. Washington Post's Kornblut points out that there are 134 female candidates running for House seats.

The AFL-CIO expanded its reach into the mail boxes of its members by sending out 2.5M mail pieces on Monday. The mail pieces are predominantly negative and target Republican candidates for governor, House and the Senate.

The mail pieces are another indication that the labor organization believes mail is, at this point, its top weapon for mobilizing its voters this fall. The AFL-CIO says its mail program has been tested and refined over the last 4 decades and that union members respond more to mail than the general public. Last week, the AFL-CIO sent out 2M mail pieces. The AFL-CIO sandwiches every mail piece with a phone calls, meaning 5M calls will be made this week.

The contrast between the AFL-CIO third party groups on the right is striking. The AFL-CIO has only gone up on the air with one ad so far, while the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and right-leaning groups like American Crossroads have been blanketing the airwaves with ads.

The mail pieces were produced by MSHC, Mission Control and the Mack Crounse Group.

This week the AFL-CIO is targeting GOP Senate candidates Rep. Roy Blunt in Missouri, Ken Buck Colorado, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Marco Rubio in Florida, Sharron Angle in Nevada, Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and Rand Paul in Kentucky. All of these candidates were targeted last week as well, with the exception of Ayotte, who hadn't emerged from her primary yet.

The union is also attacking Republicans in governor's races in Minnesota, Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Maryland, New Mexico, Illinois and Ohio.

A complete list of the House districts is below the jump:

The DSCC is ramping up its attacks on Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R), launching three separate ads against the Republican Colorado Senate candidate on Monday.

The ad blitz against Buck shows that Colorado is an essential part of the firewall Democrats are trying to construct to prevent the GOP from obtaining a Senate majority -- a tough slog at this point, but still a possibility if the GOP runs the table out West.

The three ads are the clearest sign yet that the DSCC wants to paint Buck, a Tea Party backed candidate, as extreme. The first two ads attack Buck for a statement that he would support repealing the 17th Amendment, which would allow state legislatures, not voters, to pick the state's representatives in Congress.

The third targets women voters and highlights a past statement from Buck that he wants to make some forms of birth control illegal.

Check out the ads after the jump:

The Cook Political Report has moved the Alaska Senate race rating from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Notes the Report, "While Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is well-known and retains a reservoir of goodwill among voters, history has not been kind to write-in candidates and Murkowski's path to victory is extremely steep. Still, Murkowski's decision adds enough uncertainty, particularly in the absence of polling to provide some guidance, that we are moving the race to the Likely Republican column."

Looking for another sign of the how much Democrats are on defense in the House this year? How about this: More than a third of the DCCC's "Red To Blue" Program, which was originally launched as the committee's principle offensive weapon, is composed of Democrats running for Democrat held seats.

The latest example are the two newest members of the program. On Monday, the DCCC added Ann McLane Kuster (D), who is running for Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) seat in NH 02, and Bill Keating, who is running for retiring Rep. Bill Delahunt's (D) seat in MA 10. Both emerged from primaries last week to become the Democratic nominees.

With Kuster and Delahunt, 12 of the 29 members of the Red to Blue program this year are Democrats seeking to hold on to Democrat seats.

The numbers are yet another indication of just how few pick up opportunities Democrats have this year. Democratic strategists acknowledge privately that at most they have 5 pick up opportunities this fall: DE AL, IL 10, LA 2, FL 25 and HI 1. The Democratic candidates in each of these races is included in the program. (See list below.)

Democrats insist that they have always included open seats in the program since it launched in '04. The program is designed, the DCCC says, to highlight top Democratic campaigns to offer them financial and organizational support. In '08, the program helped raise $26M for its candidates in the program.

Below are the Democratic candidates in the program who are running in a Democrat held district and the Democratic member who currently holds the seat.

Bill Keating, MA 10 (Rep. Bill Delahunt)
Ann McLane Kuster, NH 2 (Rep. Paul Hodes)
Chad Causey, AR 01 (Rep. Marion Berry)
Joyce Elliott, AR 02 (Rep. Vic Snyder)
Denny Heck, WA 03 (Rep. Brian Baird)
Roy Herron, TN 08 (Rep. John Tanner)
Julie Lassa, WI 07 (Rep. David Obey)
Bryan Lentz, PA 07 (Rep. Joe Sestak)
Gary McDowell, MI 01 (Rep. Bart Stupak)
Mike Oliverio, WV 01 (Rep. Alan Mollohan)
Stephene Moore, KS 03 (Rep. Dennis Moore)
Trent Van Haaften, IN 08 (Rep. Brad Ellsworth)

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Startling Lineup. On the radar today: DSCC defines O'Donnell -- but not as "extreme" as you might think; the NRCC inundates the political landscape with anti-Pelosi ads and the White House in full campaign mode in Pennsylvania and Ohio today.

Defining O'Donnell: The DSCC has gone up with a new ad in Delaware attacking Christine O'Donnell (R), but it's not what you're thinking. The ad doesn't hit O'Donnell for offbeat personal statements (and most recently, her past dabbling in witchcraft), but, rather, for her spending habits.

"We don't know a lot about Christine O'Donnell. But here's what we do know," the narrator says. "She'll fit right in, in Washington. O'Donnell spends money she doesn't have. Hired employees she didn't pay. Stiffed businesses. Didn't pay her taxes."

It's political jujitsu: Trying to tie one of the most outsider candidates of the cycle to Washington, D.C. Other Democrats have used similar attacks, but against candidates with closer relationships to DC, such as Robin Carnahan's (D) attacks on Rep. Roy Blunt (R) in the Missouri Senate race and Lee Fisher's (D) attacks on former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in the Ohio Senate contest.

The ad also illustrates that Democrats will use a line of attack on DC spending against Republicans.

O'Donnell, meanwhile, appears to doing everything she can to cultivate her image as an outsider. In addition to canceling her scheduled appearances on the Sunday shows over the weekend, she also didn't show up on Friday to a meeting with NRSC Chairman John Cornyn, according to party sources. DSCC AD: http://bit.ly/9mvN5y

Expanding The Playing Field, Again: The NRCC went up a barrage of ads over the weekend in a dozen competitive districts across the country. What might have been lost in the shuffle: The NRCC are spending money for the first time in several races.

A few that jump out were considered stretches for the GOP at the beginning of the cycle. Republican strategists, however, now believe they are all in play.

Among the most notable -- stay tuned to Hotline On Call for a full breakdown this morning -- are PA 03 where the NRCC is airing ads against Rep. Kathy Dahlkmeper's (D). The GOP is particularly bullish on auto dealer Mike Kelly's (R) chances in this
Republican-leaning district. They're also starting to pour in the big bucks against Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) in PA 08, an up-and-coming member whose political fortunes have declined rapidly in the last several months.

The NRCC is also spending against Rep. John Adler (D) in NJ 03. Adler is facing former NFL football player Jon Runyan (R). Adler is favored in this race, but Runyan has considerable personal wealth he can tap into and the senior-heavy district has turned on Democrats this year.

Two others: NC 07, against Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) and VA 09, against Rep. Rick Boucher (D). These, in particular, represent districts that were believed to be safe for Democrats this year.

These NRCC ads continue to show that the number of competitive House races continues to creep up. In a wave year, Republicans clearly believe all of these could flip. (Be sure to check out The Hotline's IE Tracker for more on the buys: http://bit.ly/ayIgNd

White House Watch: With the election less than a month and a half away (crazy, we know), the White House is in full campaign mode. Because of that the Starting Lineup is starting a new feature, "White House Watch," where we'll give you a quick run down of where the administration is campaigning each day.

Today in The Hotline's Independent Expenditure Tracker:

Watch out, here comes the NRCC. GOP House strategists at the committee dumped $1.7M into a series of new ads over the weekend, taking aim at a few obvious targets and in a few districts where the party believes they can move numbers. At the beginning of the cycle, who thought Reps. Mike McIntyre (D-NC) or Ben Chandler (D-KY) would be in trouble?

The districts the NRCC is spending in this week include: PA 11, VA 09, PA 08, WI 07, NJ 03, PA 03, IL 14, MI 01, MI 07, PA 07, NC 07, IL 11, AL 02, AZ 01, CA 11, FL 02, KY 06, MS 01, TN 08, TX 23, VA 05, IN 02 and IL 10.

Just as notable, the NRCC is conducting polling in a number of districts, the weekend filings show. The party commissioned surveys testing Reps. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA), Rick Boucher (D-VA), Patrick Murphy (D-PA), John Adler (D-NJ), Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA), Mark Schauer (D-MI), Debbie Halvorson (D-IL), Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ), McIntyre, and in the open seats held by Reps. David Obey (D-WI), Mark Kirk (R-IL), Joe Sestak (D-PA) and Bart Stupak (D-MI). Expect the better numbers to come trickling out over the next few weeks.

The main campaign finance story of the year thus far has been the influence of conservative organizations. But Dem-leaning groups aren't sitting completely on the sidelines. SEIU will begin large ad campaigns against 2 prominent GOP recruits this week.

The union will target former Rep. Tim Walberg (R), running against Schauer in MI, and businessman Jim Renacci (R), who is challenging Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH). SEIU will drop $250K into the Schauer-Walberg matchup and $435K against Renacci.

Click here to see today's updates.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) acknowledged on Sunday that her write-in general election campaign will be an uphill fight.

Murkowski announced on Friday that she will run as a write-in candidate this fall after losing the GOP primary to attorney Joe Miller (R).

"Winning a write-in campaign is going to be tough," Murkowski told Candy Crowley on CNN's "State of the Union."

Murkowski went on to say that she believes Alaskans will back her candidacy.

"But don't you tell Alaskans that we can't do tough things" she said. "You don't think we can fill in an oval and learn to spell Lisa Murkowski? We can figure this out. Our state's future is on the line, and we're going to listen to what Alaskans have to say."

The Alaska Republican also took issue with Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), who sent out a fundraising email for Miller on Saturday that called Murkowski a "big-tent hypocrite" for running a write-in campaign. DeMint has backed several outsider candidates who have upset establishment Republicans this year -- including Miller.

"A write-in process is absolutely a part of that electoral process," Murkowski said. "I am listening to my constituents. That's what it's all about. It's not trying to make the Republican Party happy. It's not trying to make Jim DeMint happy. It's trying to respond to the people of the state of Alaska."

"Maybe from Jim DeMint's perspective," she added. "I'm not conservative enough for him. But the question is, do I represent the values of the people of the state that I represent?"

Murkowski lost the GOP primary at the end of August by approximately 2K votes. She heads into 3-way general election against Miller and Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) as an underdog.

Senate Republicans and the NRSC encouraged Murkowski to accept Miller's victory and bow out of the race. After announcing her intent to run a write-in campaign, Murkowski resigned from her post in the Republican Senate leadership.

Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination by a wide margin, defeating former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D).

The AP called the race early on for Abercrombie on Saturday evening. In the most recent tally,  the former congressman is leading Hannemann 60% to 38% with 99% of precincts counted.

Abercrombie emerges from what was a very heated Democratic race against Hannemann. In August, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D), the state's long-serving senior Senator, called on both sides to wage more positive campaigns.

Abercrombie must now shift his focus to LG Duke Aiona (R) in the general election. Aiona, who faced only minor Republican competition in the primary, easily emerged the victor in the GOP race.

The RGA began running TV and radio ads for Aiona during the primary, a sign that they believe the general election race is competitive for the LG.

Updated at 4:40 p.m.

In a surprising outcome, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) was announced this afternoon as the preferred 2012 Republican presidential nominee among social conservatives in a Values Voters Summit straw poll.

Pence squeezed by in a small margin against former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee -- last year's winner by a landslide -- earning 170 votes out of 723 cast over two days.

"I think Congressman Pence gave an outstanding speech last night when he spoke, but he has also been providing more crucial leadership... among social conservatives and, really, conservatives in general," said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, which put on the event.

Demonstrating the social conservative emphasis among the conference attendees, voters of the poll called abortion their No. 1 concern in choosing a candidate, before government spending, repeal of Obamacare, protection of religious liberty, and national security, respectively. The results stray from other voices in the conservative spotlight right now, particularly Tea Party members, who advocate above all else the importance of fiscal responsibility.

No wonder that Pence, who touted loudly in his speech on Friday that social issues cannot fall to the wayside, was so highly favored.

"America's darkest moments have come when economic arguments trumped moral principles," Pence said Friday. "Those who would have us ignore the battle being fought over life, marriage, and religious liberty have forgotten the lessons of history."

Conversely, Sarah Palin, who has become somewhat of a darling among fiscal conservatives, didn't boast a great showing, winning the vice presidential favorite spot by default (Pence won that, too, with 119 votes to Palin's 112), but coming in fifth in the presidential column, after former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Perkins again put a substantial amount of weight in the conference participation itself, attributing Palin's results to her not being present at the summit.

Indicating a notable shift in climate for the WH'12 race, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) fell hard after winning the CPAC straw poll in February and coming in second by one vote to Romney in the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll in April. Today, he came in second-to-last before Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, and last in the vice presidential rankings, garnering only five votes in each category.

Perkins said the 18 candidates chosen for the poll were based off of commonly whispered names with regard to 2012, and were in no way "scientific. ...There was nothing 'magical' about this list, per se."

Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty asked to be excluded from the poll.

-- Republican incumbents, make a note for next cycle: When faced with a Tea Party candidate, it doesn't matter how long a shot he or she has. That rival can beat you, and so help you God if the Tea Party Express gets involved. Rep. Mike Castle (R) found that out the hard way this week in what can only be characterized as the upset of the cycle, when marketing consultant Christine O'Donnell (R) defeated him Tuesday.

-- Only Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has figured out the winning formula: Discredit the opponent early, and never let off the gas. If Tea Party candidates ever start building momentum, they've proven impossible to stop. Soon-to-be-former Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Bob Bennett (R-UT) learned that the hard way, as did Sue Lowden, Trey Grayson, Rep. Mike Castle ... you get the picture.

-- Then again, have we spoken too soon about Murkowski? She announced late Friday she'll run for another term even after losing the GOP primary, and she made a good point in citing social media as a new way to run as a write-in. A good point. But social networking is, to some extent, personality-driven. Does Murkowski have the following to make it work?

-- -- Not all states are created equal. Democratic fortunes in several pivotal Midwestern and Rust Belt states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania) where the economy is particularly weak are on a steep decline. Dems in these states could suffer wipeouts. On the other hand, Sen. Patty Murray is looking in decent shape -- and part of her "success" is attributable Washington's relatively good economy, powered by Boeing and Microsoft, and her work on their behalf.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) will run for re-election as a write-in candidate after losing her bid for renomination, according to sources briefed on Murkowski's decision.

Murkowski's decision will set up a 3-way battle between the incumbent, Miller and Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D), potentially turning the race on its head. Private 3-way polling has shown Miller leading, but by a narrow margin.

Murkowski will make the formal announcement tonight in Anchorage. She has been mulling her options after losing to attorney Joe Miller (R) by 1.8% -- or about 2K votes out of 110K cast.

Miller won with the backing of the Tea Party Express and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R). The Tea Party Express spent hundreds of thousands of dollars criticizing Murkowski's legislative accomplishments, and Palin campaigned against her rival in the race's closing days.

She has not formally said she will run, but her campaign is inviting reporters to call in. Murkowski spokespeople were not immediately available for comment Friday afternoon.

Campaign volunteers have been inviting supporters to a "kick-off" event tonight, the Anchorage Daily News reported this afternoon. And in comments to the paper on Thursday, Murkowski certainly sounded like a candidate.

"I'm not much of a poker player, but the analogy I've been using is that I'm sitting there and I've been dealt a six and an eight," Murkowski told the paper. "And the guy across from me has two kings showing. And I'm hoping for the five, the seven and the nine. But it is possible."

Murkowski's bid comes despite both public and private pressure from top Senate Republicans to accept Miller's victory.

"The Republican leadership, the NRSC and the RNC support the Republican candidate period," said a senior Republican aide. "She knows that."

Murkowski remains a member of the Senate's Republican leadership, serving as Senate Republican Conference vice chair, but GOP aides said they assume she will give up that job.

"It's hard to be vice chair if you are running against the Republican nominee," said one staffer.

Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) on Monday said he had begun seeking support from colleagues to replace Murkowski as SRC vice chair.

The NRSC has said it will back Miller, even though Murkowski is a member of Senate GOP leadership. NRSC communications director Brian Walsh referred inquiries to a statement the committee released last night and refused to elaborate further.

We know it's only been a few hours since we first looked at the West Virginia Senate race, but we wanted you to have both sides of this one before the weekend.

Earlier, we took a close look at how businessman John Raese (R) can pull off what, at this point, would be considered a substantial upset in the West Virginia special Senate election.

This afternoon, we examine the favorite's playbook. Gov. Joe Manchin (D) has a lot going for him in this race and Democrats both in West Virginia and DC are ready to put up a fight to make sure he succeeds the late Robert Byrd (D) in the Senate.

Without further ado, here's Joe Manchin's path to victory.

Don't Mess With Success: In a year where that is shaping up to be a big one for Republicans, one thing seems to be universally accepted in Democratic circles: If there is one Democratic who can be successful this year, it's Manchin.

Since losing the '96 Democratic gubernatorial primary, Manchin's electoral record is spotless. In '04, Manchin won the governorship with 64% of the vote. He expanded on that number 4 years later, earning 70% in his re-election bid.

Even now, Manchin's approval rating and favorable numbers are in the high 60s or low 70s in tracking polls -- numbers that are unheard for an incumbent Democratic governor these days. Even more shocking: In a state with one of the worst performing economies in the country, Democratic polling shows that West Virginians believe the state is heading in the right direction.

More, Democrats believe Manchin has a record on which he can run. He has worked to balance the state budget and has cut taxes. More importantly, he has stood up for the coal industry -- a big part of West Virginia politics.

With little subtlety, attendees at the Values Voters Summit on Friday made it clear which speaker most of them were there to see. Despite the more fervent and perhaps even incendiary speeches preceding hers, Senate nominee and latest Tea Party poster child Christine O'Donnell (R) required the shortest introduction and elicited by far the largest applause upon taking the stage.

Drawing from the energy in the room, moderator Tom McClusky of FRC Action set the stage for O'Donnell's remarks. "Bumblebees aren't supposed to fly," he said. "This week, Christine flew" when she upended 9-term Rep. Mike Castle (R- DE) on Tuesday for the Republican Senate seat nomination.

O'Donnell told the conservative audience that with the Democratic takeover of Washington 2 years ago, "the conservative movement was told to curl up in a fetal position and just stay there...Well how things have changed." Cue roars from the crowd.

The content of her words was fairly safe, but O'Donnell held her own. She looked nervous and read the majority of the speech -- after all, she's new to this -- but the warm reception of the crowd proved that her unpolished genuineness reflects the grassroots origins they've come to love.

As governors races go, so goes the U.S. Senate? There is some evidence to suggest a correlation between the two. Since 1994, Republicans have won 25 Senate seats either by beating Democratic incumbents, or winning seats that were open. In 19 of those cases, the state either had or elected a Republican governor that year. Democrats have also won 25 Senate races either by beating Republican incumbents or winning seats that were open. 15 of these states had or elected Democratic governors that same year.

There are 27 states with both Senate and governors races on the ballot in November. Republicans hold 14 of them, including 10 open seats. Democrats have the remaining 13, but just seven are open. Open seatstend to create a great deal of volatility in any election. That volatility, plus the fact that the 27 states are pretty evenly divided between the parties, may make 2010 an unusually good test case of whether a correlation between a party winning gubernatorial and Senate races in the same state truly exists or whether it is simply a fluke.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) told crowds at the Values Voters Summit on Friday that Nov. 2 is not the be-all, end-all solution to government that many Tea Partiers are hoping for.

Santorum, who has made no secret of his '12 aspirations, advised conservative voters and activists to "stay focused... on 2012."

"Barack Obama will still be president Nov. 3, 2010, and he will not be for repealing Obamacare," Santorum said. "He will not be for reducing taxes. He will not be for cutting spending. There should be no popping of champagne corks on Nov. 2. It is simply as step."

Catering to the theme of the event, put on by the Family Research Council, Santorum deviated (if only slightly) from the fiscal responsibility cries of the Tea Party on Friday at the Values Voters Summit, saying that social issues are just as important in America right now as economic concerns.

"Without faith, family, and virtue," he warned, "government takes over...Limited government can only occur in a society where there are strong families, strong churches, and virtue."

Foreshadowing a similarly toned speech expected later in the day from longtime family values advocate Christine O'Donnell, Santorum told to an eruption of applause: For now, we should "focus on getting as many votes as we can... Delaware would be a good place to spend some time."

Stay tuned for coverage of O'Donnell's speech this afternoon.

This weekend, a Clinton will appear on all three of the network broadcasts. Bill Clinton will be on both "Meet the Press" and "Face the Nation" while Hillary Clinton will sit down with "This Week"'s Christiane Amanpour. Look out for the showdown between Karl Rove and DE SEN nominee Christine O'Donnell (R) on "Fox News Sunday." And HBO's "Real Time" with Bill Maher is back tonight for another season.

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Bill Clinton and ex-Sec/State Colin Powell.

Face the Nation hosts Bill Clinton and DE SEN nominee Christine O'Donnell (R).

This Week hosts Iranian Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Sec/State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Fox News Sunday hosts DE SEN nominee Christine O'Donnell (R) and ex-Bush adviser Karl Rove.

State of the Union hosts Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC).

Other Weekend Shows

Political Capital features NRCC Chair Pete Sessions (TX) (Bloomberg, FRI, 7pm).

Washington Week features Washington Post's Dan Balz, Politico's Jeanne Cummings, CBS' John Dickerson and New York Times' John Harwood (PBS, FRI, 8pm).

Real Time features filmmaker Michael Moore, actor Jon Hamm, ABC's Martha Raddatz, GOP strategist Mark McKinnon and Ex-Labor Sec. Robert Reich (HBO, FRI, 10pm).

Voters head to the polls in Hawaii on Saturday for the final statewide primary of '10.

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, the choices include two household names in state political circles: Neil Abercormbie (D), who represented Hawaii's 1st District from '91 until he stepped down earlier this year and Mufi Hannemann (D), who is the former mayor of Honolulu. Recent polling on the matchup between the two front-runners indicates a very close race, with Abercrombie leading by a small margin.

The race has been marked by negative campaigning, with some of Hannemann's moves drawing criticism from other pols. Last month, a controversial Hannemann campaign mailer was criticized by Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) and Gov. Linda Lingle (R). The mailer pointed out that Hannemann was born in Hawaii while while Abercrombie was born in New York and indicated that Hannemann's wife is Japanese-American while Abercrombie's wife is not.

Separately, a negative Hannemann radio ad prompted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to come to Abercrombie's defense. Meanwhile, Abercrombie has also gone on the offensive, hitting Hannemann in a radio ad of his own. Inouye has called on both campaigns to tone down the negativity.

Here's a sign how how quickly Sen. Jim DeMint's (R-SC) stock is rising in the right wing of the GOP: Bob Vander Plaats, the chairman of Mike Huckabee's '08 Iowa campaign, approached DeMint's staff on Friday about visiting Iowa.

Hotline On Call overheard Vander Plaats talking to DeMint's staff after the South Carolina Republican spoke at the Values Voter Summit. After that conversation, Vander Plaats, who ran for governor of Iowa this year, told Hotline On Call that DeMint would be a top draw in Iowa these days.

"We've got a couple things going on where we'd like to get high profile people like Sen. DeMint," he said. "Obviously, we in Iowa don't know a lot about Sen. DeMint but we sure like where he's rooted and where is core values are."

DeMint has become a hero of the right this fall as he has helped several conservative candidates beat establishment favorites in GOP Senate primaries. Most recently, DeMint endorsed Christine O'Donnell in her upset GOP primary victory earlier this week in Delaware.

DeMint was very warmly received at the Values Voter Summit Friday morning. He got a standing ovation and calls from the crowed for him to run for president were heard after his speech. ("No I'm not running," he said in the hallway after the speech.)

"I've been working the past year to stir up some primaries between establishment Republicans and Republicans who stand for the principles of freedom," DeMint said. "Because of your there has been upset after another upset all over the country."

DeMint also indicated that he views the primary wins as the beginning of a larger movement.

"We have some candidates," he said. "This is no longer voting for the least worse candidate. We have some candidates we can be proud of."

Count Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) among the conservative cadre of senators who are happy about Christine O'Donnell's surprise win this week in Delaware.

Inhofe told Hotline On Call at the Values Voter Summit Friday that O'Donnell's victory shows there is finally a strong energy on the right that can impact Congress.

"I've been waiting for this for years," Inhofe said.

Now, Inhofe also said he didn't know who O'Donnell was before this week. But, nevertheless, he believes she can defeat New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D) in the general election.

"I think she's going to win," Inhofe said.

O'Donnell has increasingly become a divisive figure among the GOP since defeating establishment favorite Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE). It isn't surprising that Inhofe is backing her, he's one of the most conservative members of the upper chamber.

Inhofe also took issue with Karl Rove, who has been critical of O'Donnell and her nomination.

"I don't think I've disagreed with Karl Rove until this," Inhofe said. "But I think he is wrong about this."

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's Path To Victory, where we look at some of the most watched races of the cycle and examine how each side plans to win.

This week we turn our attention to the West Virginia Senate race for the late Robert Byrd's (D) Senate seat. The race pits Gov. Joe Manchin (D), one of the most popular governors in the country, against businessman John Raese (R), a local media mogul who has run statewide in West Virginia on four other occasions -- including against Byrd - in '06.

This is the first race we've looked at that isn't firmly in the "toss up" column. Manchin is currently the frontrunner for good reason: He has had tremendous success in West Virginia and has some of the highest job approval ratings of any sitting governor.

Nevertheless, West Virginia has been hit particularly hard by the economy and despite high Democratic registration numbers, the state has a strong conservative streak. One statewide Dem operative said 70% of West Virginians self identify as conservative; indeed, the Mountain State voted for Republican presidential nominees in the last three elections.

Further, Raese is a known quantity in the state. He's never won political office, but has run statewide campaigns before (unsuccessfully against Byrd). He can also run on a record of job creation. In a Republican wave year amidst a recession, this is a race that could tighten and, by Election Day, could represent a pickup opportunity for Republicans.

And with that, here is John Raese's path to victory.

All Obama, All The Time: Raese may be running against Manchin, but his campaign will be focused on Pres. Obama. Obama's poll numbers in West Virginia are among his worst in the country. As one West Virginia Republican put it, "he's despised here." Republican polling has found that Obama's disapproval is climbing toward 70% and support for health care reform isn't much better.

Raese will nationalize the race and Republicans believe he stands to benefit from the strategy in a big way. To do this, he'll seek to tie Manchin to Obama with steel ties. Raese will particularly target health care reform and cap and trade legislation -- two issues that West Virginians strongly oppose. This strategy is apparent in one of his latest ads.

"Joe Manchin's been supporting Barack Obama's liberal agenda for years," the narrator says. "Manchin supports Obama's government run health care and its $400 billion in Medicare cuts...We can't afford Joe Manchin in the Senate as a rubber stamp for Obama." Expect to see plenty more like that.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: If Obama is the national prong of Raese's strategy, the local prong is a jobs message. West Virginia has the second worst-performing economy in the country. Raese has a record of job creation. He is the CEO of several ventures, including a coal mining company -- an industry that is absolutely vital to West Virginia. One operative noted that every county in West Virginia receives coal severance taxes and supporting coal mining is a pivotal part of West Virginia politics.

Raese also owns 25 radio stations across West Virginia and is the founder of the METRONEWS network, which has 56 affiliates that reach every nook of the state.

Oh, and if there were any question as to whether Raese will be able to get his message out, there shouldn't be: Raese's radio stations guarantee him plenty of air time. He's also spent $1M of his own money on each of his 4 previous statewide runs.

Updated, 8:33 a.m.

Happy Friday! Welcome back to the Starting Lineup. What to watch today: Minnick goes nuclear on Labrador, Murkowski set to make an announcement, Biden heads to Delaware for Coons and "Values Voters" descend on DC.

Values Voters: The 2010 Values Voter Summit kicks off this morning in D.C. As usual, there is a star studded conservative roster of speakers. The summit, put on by the Family Research Council, is a must-attend cattle call on the WH'12 circuit, and the candidates themselves are showcasing their stump speeches.

The agenda today includes some big names like former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), Reps. Mike Pence (R-IN) and Michele Bachmann (R), ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) -- along with DE SEN nominee Christine O'Donnell, a late addition but one who will draw tons of interest nonetheless.

Stay tuned, your Hotline On Call editor will be at the summit today.

Murkowski: It's decision day for Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R). Murkowski will announce later today whether she will pursue a write-in candidacy to retain her Senate seat. Be sure to check out this piece from the Anchorage Daily News, where it sure sounds like Murkowski is going to stay in the race.

"Believe you me," Murkowski told the paper, "the easier path would be to pack it all up and go do something different," she said. "If I had not heard this call from Alaskans, I would not be deliberating as I am."

Hmm. The ADN wisely notes that no senator has been successful in pursuing a write in campaign since Strom Thurmond of South Carolina in 1954. If Murkowski does remain in the race, it'll certainly shake things up. She will undoubtedly siphon votes from Republican nominee Joe Miller, but it's still unclear if she will influence the race enough to entice national Democrats to send resources to the state on behalf of Democratic nominee Scott McAdams. http://bit.ly/d5cLjN

Minnick: Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID), once considered the most vulnerable Democrat of the cycle, is going up with his first negative ad of the cycle and it's a doozy. The ad hits Republican Raul Labrador for aiding illegal immigration and it hits him hard.

More very bad news for Democrats out of Ohio today, as a new poll shows Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) trailing former Rep. Rob Portman (R) by a whopping 20 points.

The Quinnipiac poll of likely voters also found that fully 60% disapprove of Pres. Obama's job performance while only 38% approve.

Taken together, the numbers suggest that Democrats are in deep trouble in Ohio, one of the places where Democrats had been hoping to build a firewall against the GOP wave this year. On Thursday, there was more bad news as another Quinnipiac poll found Gov. Ted Strickland (D) trailing challenger John Kasich (R) by 17 points in the governor's race. (The Strickland camp later pushed back on those numbers, leaking internals that showed the governor trailing by 3.)

Portman has a 55% to 35% lead in the poll and -- most troubling for Democrats and the White House -- Ohio voters overwhelmingly want a senator who opposes Obama's proposals. 58% said they prefer a senator who opposes Obama, while 37% want one who supports him.

The numbers present a tough question for the DSCC and the DGA. At this point, Republican leads in these races are so large that it may not be worth it for Democrats to invest in them.

Those numbers suggest that Obama will not be welcome on the campaign stump in Ohio this year. They also signal that Obama has lost control of the economic narrative in the Buckeye State: Fully 65% of respondents disapproved of Obama's performance on the economy.

The Quinnipiac survey was composed Sept. 9-14 and surveyed 730 likely voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.

Two public polls released over the past 24 hours paint a bleak picture of Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) re-election prospects, but recent surveys conducted for the Strickland camp show Strickland and former Rep. John Kasich (R) locked in a more competitive race.

According to the most recent Strickland campaign tracking poll, conducted over the past 2 weeks and obtained by Hotline On Call, Strickland trails by Kasich by 3 points, 48% to 45%.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll, conducted Sept. 10-14 and released Wednesday, showed Kasich ahead by 7 points, while a Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted Sept. 9-14 and released Thursday, showed Kasich ahead by a whopping 17 points. Kasich's lead in both public polls was outside the margin of error.

In addition to their internal polling, the Strickland camp is also touting the release of 2 new TV ads today that focus on their candidate's job-creation efforts.

A new bipartisan survey offers yet another striking example of how deep and widespread voter economic anxiety this midterm election.

The poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R), shows why issues of Social Security and Medicare reform are so politically fraught. Nearly half of respondents said they are "very concerned" about being able to maintain a comfortable standard of living throughout retirement - with nearly three-quarters of voters (73 percent) expressing some concern. The level of retiree confidence is the lowest level in 17 years.

Republicans will take heart in that most respondents support more options dealing with retirement - presumably, not limited to Social Security - that "help retirees make sure their savings last throughout their lifetime." Only 32 percent of current workers consider Social Security "a major source" of their post-retirement income, while 45 percent say it is just a minor source.

"Democrat, Republican and independent voters are worried about retirement, and all believe Congress should place a high priority on creating retirement options that help retirees make their savings last throughout their lifetime," said Republican pollster Rob Autry, who conducted the survey.

Democrats will be pleased to hear that 45 percent of respondents say candidates' "commitment to retirement concerns" will play a very important role in who they vote for. One of the major lines of attack from Democratic Congressional candidates is accusing Republicans of wanting to dismantle Social Security.

"Of particular importance is the fact that retirement issues are resonating strongly with those who will most likely play a role in swinging November's elections - older voters, blue collar voters, and women of all ages and political affiliations," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. "These influential constituencies are responding to those candidates who are addressing their concerns about retirement security."

A full third of workers believe they will still have to work even after they're 65 -- up 10 points in the last five years.

The poll was commissioned by Americans for a Secure Retirement, an umbrella group of more than 70 member and affiliate organizations ranging across the political spectrum.

While Democratic Reps. Charles Rangel (NY) and Maxine Waters (CA) face ethics hearings that could reinforce public skepticism about Congress, most of their colleagues on both sides of the aisle are not pushing either out the door according to the results of the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Of the 35 Democratic Member of Congress who responded to this question this week, 54% said they would not like to see either of the embattled incumbents resign, while 29% said both should step down. Another 9% said they would like to see just Rangel resign while 6% said that it was up to Rangel and Waters to decide what to do. One Democratic voiced "no opinion" on the question.

At the same time, 52% of the 34 Republican Members of Congress responding said that neither Rangel nor Waters should go. But it was apparent from several of the Republicans' comments that they wanted Rangel and Waters to hang around because the 2 provide fodder for GOP criticism of the Democrat-run Congress. "I think they should resign, but, politically, it's good for the GOP to talk about how they have not resigned," said one GOP Member. Another echoed, "Their ethics problems are the gifts that keep on giving."

For all the results and comments for this week's poll, click here.

Republicans in Congress appear willing to cut a deal to extend the Bush tax cuts for all income earners for one year, but Democrats are not eager to negotiate according to the results of the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll. When asked if they would like to see a compromise on temporarily extending the Bush tax cuts for one year for all income earners, 71% of the 34 GOP Members of Congress who participated in the poll this week said that they would. But only 26% of the 38 Democratic Members who participated this week were receptive to a deal, while 68% said they were not.

"Poll after poll shows that the public favors repealing the tax cuts for the wealthy," said one congressional Democrat. Another said, "The country can't afford it."

While they were open to such a deal, some Republican Members did not sound like they were very enthusiastic for one. "If that's the best that can be achieved then, yes, a one-year extension of all tax cuts is better than letting any tax cuts expire," said one GOP Member. A colleague optimistically added, "Then when we take the majority in the next Congress we can do what we want."

For all the results and comments from this week's poll, click here.

RNC chair Michael Steele spoke with Delaware Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell (R) by phone Thursday afternoon, offering his congratulations and the party's assistance in her uphill battle for an open Senate seat.

Steele has already said several times that he supports O'Donnell's candidacy. He reiterated his support to her over the phone, an RNC source tells Hotline On Call. The RNC will be sending staffers to Delaware as early as this weekend.

That offer of support stands in stark contrast to the NRSC, which initially offered nothing more than a terse statement acknowledging O'Donnell's win over Rep. Mike Castle (R) on Tuesday. Party officials backed Castle, who was polling well ahead of New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D). Coons leads O'Donnell in every survey conducted.

But the NRSC's stand angered grassroots activists, who helped O'Donnell to her surprising win. By Wednesday, the NRSC had backed down; chairman John Cornyn offered O'Donnell his support in a statement, and the NRSC dispatched $42K to her campaign, the maximum contribution allowed from a campaign to the committee.

Democrats are newly confident about their chances in the First State, but that doesn't mean the party won't have to spend money to hold on to the seat.

The DSCC has made an $85K ad buy in the Salisbury, MD, media market, sources who watch ad spending tell Hotline On Call. That market covers the southern portion of Delaware, where marketing consultant Christine O'Donnell performed strongly in her primary win on Tuesday.

The DSCC refused to comment, citing a policy against confirming the existence of advertising buys.

O'Donnell's stunning primary win on Tuesday over Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) was considered a break for Democrats. Castle, who has been in Delaware politics for 4 decades, was considered by most analysts to be the strongest general election candidate in the GOP field.

With O'Donnell as the nominee, New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D) goes into the general election as the front runner. The Democrats' ad buy, however, suggests that it isn't taking anything for granted given the volatility of the electorate.

The contest between Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon has been gradually closing over the past few months. The Cook Political Report notes, "we are not dismissive of the Democratic poll that shows the race at 15 points, but the Quinnipiac poll, coupled with the Pollster.com trend line and the Republican numbers we've seen, suggest a competitive race that is now up for grabs. As such, the race moves to the Toss Up column."

The Texas gubernatorial race is heating up, as Gov. Rick Perry (R) has unleashed his first wave of negative TV ads against the Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

Perry has gone up with three new ads. Two of the commercials attack White's record as mayor of Houston and seek tie him to Pres. Obama. "Obama and White, Washington style spending. Wrong for Texas," says a narrator in one of the ads.

Another spot accuses White of profiting off of Hurricane Rita, a charge White rejects and an issue the 2 sides have sparred over.

"Rick Perry and his handlers are resorting to false, negative attacks because they're afraid this is the end of his 25 year career in politics," said White spokesperson Katy Bacon, in response to the ads.

White has tried distance himself from Obama on certain issues and was notably absent from a Democratic fundraiser in Texas headlined by Obama, signaling that White is keenly aware of the dangers of being linked to the president in the GOP-leaning state.

MoveOn.org set out on Thursday to counter the millions being spent by conservative third party groups, airing ads attacking Republican Senate contenders in New Hampshire and Kentucky.

The two ads are the liberal group's first of the election cycle. Interestingly, both ads specifically target the U.S. Chamber of Commerce , which is spending millions of dollars on the election this year, as corrupt.

"They say you can judge a person by the company they keep," the narrator says in the New Hampshire spot. "Well Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte is getting a million dollars worth of help from the Chamber of Commerce, a group recently accused of tax fraud."

"If Kelly Ayotte's on their side," the ad concludes, "do you think she'd be on yours?"

The Kentucky ad has the same script, targeting ophthalmologist Rand Paul.

Check out the New Hampshire ad below.

Want one sign that the GOP has the advantage in gubernatorial contests across the country? Look at the number of Republicans putting limits or conditions on debates and the number of Democrats declaring it unfair to the voters.

So far, in Michigan, South Carolina, Texas, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Oregon, the GOP and Democratic candidates have sparred over debates with Republicans controlling the terms in each. Conventional campaign wisdom states that the frontrunner in a race has less to gain from a debate than the underdog, especially when the frontrunner also has a financial advantage. Debates provide free earned media on television, something valued by those who do not have the financial wherewithal to compete with the frontrunners.

Gov. Jan Brewer's (R-AZ) performance against AG Terry Goddard (D) is the poster child for why front-runners turn down debates when they're comfortably ahead. Her halting opening statement during which she seemed to space out and then blatant dismissal of the press' questions after the debate didn't help her chances. While Brewer's poll numbers did not drop afterward -- in fact, they improved -- it proved to be a distraction from her campaign message and provided easy fodder for both Goddard's campaign and late-night television comedians. She has since dismissed the notion of debating Goddard again.

Delaware GOP Chair Tom Ross, who has said that now-Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell couldn't be elected dogcatcher, said Thursday that he will remain in his post.

Ross was a major figure in the effort to discredit O'Donnell's candidacy against Rep. Mike Castle (R). When O'Donnell stunned the political world by beating Castle, it was widely expected that Ross would resign his post.

Not so fast, Ross said Thursday.

"I will honor my commitment to our party's grassroots activists and continue to serve as Chairman of the Republican Party of Delaware," Ross said.

The Delaware GOP churned out releases in the run up to the primary that trashed O'Donnell. On Thursday, Ross tried to gloss over that -- but made no mention of supporting O'Donnell by name.

"After a hard fought primary it is time to come together and unite over our shared principles and determination to rescue our economy from the destructive policies advanced by Democrats," he said.

The NRCC is investing heavily in state Rep. Jaime Herrera's (R) bid for retiring Rep. Brian Baird's (D) seat in Washington.

Party sources tell Hotline On Call that the NRSC has purchased $900K of air time in the Portland media market from 9/24 to 10/21. Although the Portland market also covers other districts, that money will be used exclusively to air ads on Herrera's behalf.

The NRCC's investment suggests this will be one of the costliest races this cycle. It also shows that the Republicans are trying to get a jump on the DCCC in the district. The DCCC has reserved $1M worth of air time in the Portland market, but that time doesn't begin until 10/5.

Herrera is locked in a tight race against former state Rep. Denny Heck (D) in WA 03, a major battleground district this year.

The NRCC is also going on the offense in New Mexico, purchasing $300K for October in Rep. Martin Heinrich's (D) NM 01 district. The NRCC is trying to catch Democrats by surprise here; the DCCC has not reserved time in the district yet. Heinrich faces former New Mexico GOP Vice Chair Jon Barela (R).

Both Barela and Heinrich have already gone on the air. Barela has aired a positive spot while Heinrich has gone up with two ads, most recently an attack on Barela.

Republicans are increasingly bullish that they will capitalize on the national mood and make significant inroads in state legislatures this fall, something that could prove pivotal to their redistricting efforts after the census.

The Republican State Leadership Committee, which is leading the GOP's efforts, said Thursday that it believes it will net new majorities in at least six chambers with a total of 17 chambers now in play.

Ed Gillespie, the chairman of the committee, said the committee is quickly expanding its efforts into Democratic states. They now believe they will win majorities in six chambers: the Indiana House, Michigan House, North Carolina House, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House and Wisconsin Senate.

And in a sign of how confident Republicans are getting, the RSLC is now planning to spend money in the Illinois House. Currently, Democrats hold a 21-seat majority there.

The RSLC efforts are significant because in state legislatures are critical to Republican redistricting efforts. As one RSLC staffer put it, "We're going to put the pens in the right hands."

A large part of why why the GOP has such a large playing field this year is the Democrats have been very successful at the state level in recent cycles. Currently Democrats control 28 state Houses and 32 state Senates.

This year, the Democrats are cursed by their success. Republicans are entirely on offense. In fact, the RSLC will invest only in districts that Pres. Obama carried in '08.

A good example of how Republicans will be targeting their resources can be found in the Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania Houses. The RSLC says there are at least 30 districts in these legislatures that Obama won and will determine majority control.

The RSLC will seek to capitalize on national issues in each of these districts. In each, they say, the Democratic incumbent voted for increased government spending and taxes (sound familiar?).

"The outcomes in these races will be a clear referendum on Democrats' leadership in the states and in Washington, and will play a significant role in congressional redistricting process," a report from RSLC released Thursday says.

When attorney Joe Miller (R) scored an upset victory over Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) in Alaska's GOP primary, there was a lot of buzz around the idea that having Miller as the GOP candidate would provide an opening for the Democrats to compete in the general election. But when Murkowski conceded, the GOP quickly lined up support and endorsements for Miller, and there was no comparable effort for Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) on the Democratic side. Despite the excitement, is McAdams not worth the investment? And if Murkowski got back into the race as a write in candidate, would that change the equation in McAdams' favor?

Polls conducted since the primary have shown Miller leading McAdams consistently, but by varying margins. A poll conducted on 8/31 in the hours after Murkowski conceded showed Miller leading McAdams by only 6 points (50% to 44%) in a head-to-head matchup, though another poll conducted just a few days earlier showed Miller beating McAdams 52% to 36%. It remains to be seen whether Miller's numbers will improve when voters get to know him -- and it also remains to be seen whether McAdams will have the necessary funding to introduce himself.

In some interviews and appearances since the primary, McAdams, a small-town mayor (though he has pointed out that Sitka, population 9K, is about the same size as Wasilla) has seemed hesitant on certain federal policy issues. Miller hasn't exactly blossomed under the increased scrutiny either -- from a tweet that seemed to compare Murkowski to a prostitute to his professed belief that Alaska should wean itself from federal dollars -- he has not broadened his appeal since winning the primary. But Miller, at least, at least, has the experience of a primary campaign under his belt and the help of the national GOP.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) continues to struggle in her re-election bid, according to poll numbers out Thursday.

A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media found Lincoln trailing Rep. John Boozman (R) by a 17 point margin -- 51% to 34%.

Those numbers show that Lincoln isn't gaining any traction with her campaign. Back in May, a poll from the same company showed Boozman leading 52% to 35%.

There is still more than a month to go, but at this point these numbers suggest Arkansas will be a near-certain pickup for the GOP.

Good Thursday morning. What to watch to watch for today: Troubling numbers for Ted Strickland in Ohio, the NRSC goes after Michael Bennet in Colorado, loads of voter dissatisfaction in new polling and don't miss Hotline On Call's independent expenditure tracking.

Sinking Strickland. Former Rep. John Kasich has opened up a sizable 54% to 37% lead over Gov. Ted Strickland in the Ohio gubernatorial race among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac poll out Thursday.

The Ohio governor's race is one of the pivotal battlegrounds for Democrats this year. The Quinnipiac poll shows that, above all else, Strickland is struggling among independent voters. They back Kasich by a 55% to 32% margin.

These numbers pose a bigger problem for Democrats than they may appear at first glance. Democrats face countless competitive races up and down the ballot in Ohio -- most notably, the Senate race and at least 6 House races -- and one of their arguments for why they can win is Strickland's political operation. If he limps toward Election Day, it'll be a major drag on the prospects of many other Democrats.

On other interesting stat in the poll: 52% said having Pres. Obama campaign with Strickland wouldn't make any difference on their vote.

There was a +/- 3.6% margin of error in the poll.

Branding Bennet. The NRSC is targeting Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in its second IE ad of the cycle. The ad, which will began running statewide Wednesday night, hits Bennet with on the economy.

"Look what else he's done," the narrator says. "He voted for the stimulus bill, promising us jobs...But unemployment is up. He even voted for job killing taxes. Michael Bennet: More spending, higher taxes, jobs lost."

Expect to see as many third-party ads in Colorado as in any state this year. We've already seen Bennet and the DSCC go on the air here, and on Wednesday the conservative American Crossroads also went up with an ad attacking Bennet that had a very similar message.

In light of Christine O'Donnell's surprise win Tuesday that represented yet another NRSC backed candidate losing in a primary, it is worth noting that the two ads the NRSC has gone up so far are in states where their endorsed candidate lost in the primary. Their first ad was in Kentucky and hit Attorney General Jack Conway (D). The NRSC isn't airing ads that tout the GOP nominees -- there is no mention in either ad of Ken Buck or Rand Paul -- but the NRSC is helping define their opposition with these ads. Check out the ad here: http://bit.ly/aH7WzC

One of the DCCC's latest ads targets former "Real World" star and Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy for being "out of touch" because he lives a "Hollywood lifestyle."

Duffy is facing state Sen. Julie Lassa (D) in the race for retiring Rep. David Obey's (D-WI) seat. The race is quickly become one of the most hotly contested this cycle.

The DCCC's ad attacks Duffy for supporting privatizing Social Security. It opens with shots of senior citizens and says "everyone is thinking about retirement security."

It then contrasts that with footage of Duffy getting his makeup applied during his "Real World" days.

"Duffy lives large," the narrator says. "The Hollywood lifestyle and D.C. friends mean Sean Duffy is out of touch with Wisconsin."

Just sayin', but this reminds Hotline On Call of the infamous John Edwards hair primping video.

In the latest installment of Hotline TV, Reid Wilson and Josh Kraushaar take a look at Christine O'Donnell's (R) DE SEN primary win and debate whether the Tea Party has taken control of the GOP.

Updated, 4:18 p.m.

Fox News Channel political reporter Brian Wilson is leaving the network after 12 years.

Hotline On Call has learned that Wilson is indeed leaving but papers haven't been signed yet.

Wilson is a veteran political reporter and currently hosts the Sat. ed. of "America's News Headquarters" on FNC. He joined the network in '98 where he has served as FNC's congressional reporter and covered breaking news, including the '00 FL presidential recount.

Wilson's departure follows Major Garrett's exit to National Journal last month.

No word on where Wilson is off too.

UPDATE, 3:20 p.m.: A Fox News spokesperson confirms Wilson has resigned from his post.

Updated, 4:28 p.m.

Former AG Kelly Ayotte (R) has won the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary, turning back a late surge from Tea Party favorite Ovide Lamontagne (R).

New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State David Scanlan has confirmed to Hotline On Call that Ayotte earned 53,044 votes to Lamontagne's 51,377.

Ayotte has defeated Lamontagne by 1,667 votes, which falls within the 1.5% margin necessary for a candidate to request a recount. According to a recent law change, if a candidate wants to apply for a recount, he/she must apply to the Secretary of State no later than 5 p.m. the day after the primary. A recount would begin Thursday and conclude on Saturday.

In light of marketing consultant Christine O'Donnell's upset of Rep. Mike Castle in the Delaware Republican primary, The Cook Political Report has moved this open Senate race to Likely Democratic. The Cook Political Report notes, "with Delaware off the board for the GOP, the possibility that they can net the 10 seats needed to win the majority becomes significantly harder."

The NRCC and the DCCC are up with their first heavy round of advertisements slamming their rival candidates, according to new reports filed with the FEC.

The DCCC began with a modest buy with 3 races, targeting an open seat, a Dem incumbent and Rep. Charles Djou (R-HI), a rare opportunity for offense in a pro-GOP year.

Dems continued their push to keep retiring Rep. Bart Stupak's (D-MI) seat, pouring an additional $56K against physician Dan Benishek (R). The committee is increasing its ad buy there for another week, as first reported by Hotline On Call.

The party is also spending $96K in an initial ad buy on behalf of Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL), who faces Montgomery City Councilor Martha Roby (R). Dems can make cheap ad purchases in Bright's district, where TV time costs $114 per point in the Montgomery market and just under $49 per point in the more rural Dothan market.

The NRCC opened up with a 10 race offensive that is far larger in scope than the Dems. Their largest buy is against Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), whose northern Indiana district will see $135K in ad spending during the initial purchase.

The NRCC is also targeting Bright and Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ), Jerry McNerney (D-CA), Allen Boyd (D-FL), Travis Childers (D-MS), Chet Edwards (D-TX), and Tom Perriello (D-VA). The NRCC will also spend $79K in the race for Rep. David Obey's (D-WI) open seat and $105K for their candidate running to replace Rep. John Tanner (D-TN).

This first series of buys committed by Dems and GOPers is a sneak peak at the parties' plans for the rest of the season. GOPers are flexing their muscles in a diverse group of districts, but largely in cheaper ad markets. Dems have little opportunity to pick up seats, and Djou represents a tantalizing opportunity.

The conservative group American Crossroads is going up with two new ads on Wednesday targeting the Democratic contenders in the Missouri and Colorado Senate races.

The ads show two different strategies for attacking Democrats this year.

The Missouri spot seeks to strongly tie Robin Carnahan to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Pres. Obama.

"They have failed Missouri and Robin Carnahan is one of them," the ad's narrator says as photos of the Carnahan, Pelosi, Reid and Obama are shown.

The ad illustrates the low standing Obama and Washington Democrats in general hold in Missouri. Carnahan has spent a large part of her campaign against Rep. Roy Blunt (R) distancing herself from Washington.

American Crossroads is spending $330K on airing the Missouri ad.

The Colorado ad doesn't mention Obama, Pelosi or Reid. Instead it attempts to paint Sen. Michael Bennet as two-faced on government spending.

"Michael Bennet is outraged," the narrator says before showing a clip of Bennet blasting government spending. "But Bennet voted to spend an average $2.5M per day."

American Crossroads has put $550K behind the Colorado ad.

Check out the ads after the jump:

Christine O'Donnell's GOP primary upset in Delaware on Tuesday is just one more feather in the caps of Tea Party activists, who now boast a handful of Senate candidates in November.

O'Donnell's victory comes at the expense of 9-term Rep. Mike Castle, who, until last week, was the presumed shoo-in to fill Vice President Joe Biden's former seat. Such an upset has become almost mundane for Tea Partiers, who celebrated a similar win last month when dark horse Joe Miller defeated incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the Alaska Senate race.

But now the grassroots movement approaches a new hurdle: how to turn primary successes against establishment Republicans into general election victories against Democrats.

Amy Kremer, chair of the Tea Party Express -- which gave O'Donnell key support in Delaware -- says that plan doesn't exist yet.

"Honestly, all we [have been] focused on lately is the primary in Delaware," said Kremer. "And we just came from Alaska.... So we're going to have to regroup a little bit and look at these candidates that we've endorsed and figure out what we need to do for them going into the general."

But a month and a half away from the Nov. 2 deadline, that uncertainty could prove fatal to the political interests of fiscal responsibility and limited government that the Tea Party has been advocating for a year and a half. Reagan scholar and former political strategist Craig Shirley says that upending fellow Republicans and beating Democrats are two different challenges, and the Tea Party's experience lies primarily in the former.

Seeking to tamp down speculation that it isn't supporting Christine O'Donnell (R), the NRSC said Wednesday that it will contribute the maximum amount allowable to her campaign.

In a statement, Cornyn said the NRSC is cutting a $42K check for O'Donnell and that the committee is standing behind her.

"I reached out to Christine this morning, and as I have conveyed to all of our nominees, I offered her my personal congratulations and let her know that she has our support," Cornyn said.

Cornyn also noted that the NRSC is continuing to evaluate where it will spend money this year, but wouldn't commit to spending any funds in Delaware.

"In the weeks ahead, we will decide where to best allocate additional financial resources among the large number of competitive races at stake this November," he said.

The statement is a marked departure from what the NRSC released Wednesday night -- a one-sentence reaction from Executive Director Rob Jesmer.

"We congratulate Christine O'Donnell for her nomination this evening after a hard-fought primary campaign in Delaware," Jesmer said.

How did Christine O'Donnell go from being a weak third place finisher in the '06 Delaware Republican Senate primary to slaying the party's top vote getter, Rep. Mike Castle, and becoming the GOP 2010 Senate nominee today? An analysis of the returns from the state's 41 state representative districts shows that O'Donnell did it by winning working class towns and suburbs, the fastest growing parts of the state, and Delaware's reliably conservative turf in Kent and Sussex Counties. Castle did well in Wilmington and the old-line GOP suburbs outside of Wilmington as well as in Newark, home to the University of Delaware. But these areas that were once the base for moderate Republicans on the East Coast, like Castle, had a relatively lower turnout in the primary compared the percentage of primary vote in the rest of the state.

Castle won Wilmington handily, 76% to 24% over O'Donnell, but outside of District 4, where Castle lives the GOP vote in Wilmington is insignificant and last night it comprised only 3.7% of the statewide GOP primary turnout. In the traditionally Republican suburbs outside of Wilmington known as the Brandywine Hundred, Castle also rolled up a healthy 63% majority. But those state representative districts -- 6, 7, 10 and 11 -- only made up 12.4% of the primary vote. (Delaware is a closed primary state, independents who have contributed mightily to Castle's success in general elections in the state cannot vote in party primaries.) In Greenville, another wealthy suburb, Castle rolled up a huge 73% win. Overall, Castle captured Newark, which hugs the state's border with Maryland, with 62% of the vote. But in Newark's working class district, O'Donnell won with 55% of the vote.

Castle also comfortably carried the middle class Wilmington suburbs in the Pike Creek corridor portion the state, 60% to 40%, but in the close-in working class towns of Elsmere and Newport, O'Donnell battled Castle to a draw winning Newport with 51% while losing Elsmere with 49%. To the south, in New Castle and Christiana, where working class Republicans reside, O'Donnell won again with 51 percent of the vote. In Bear and Glasgow, which is a combination of working class and middle class suburbs and represented a true battleground in this primary, O'Donnell won with 57% of the vote.

Did the Republican establishment unwittingly play a role in handing the Delaware Senate primary to Christine O'Donnell?

In the wake of Sen. Lisa Murkowski's upset defeat in Alaska to a little-known Tea Partier last month, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Delaware Republican party made a conscious decision to go nuclear on O'Donnell - an understandable one, given the immense amount of personal baggage that was well-documented in the local press and Weekly Standard.

Delaware Republican party chairman Tom Ross publicly proclaimed she was downright unelectable, saying couldn't even win an election for dogcatcher in the state. NRSC Chairman John Cornyn told CNN, on the day of the election, that he had serious doubts about O'Donnell. All that negativity had an impact, but it may well have backfired.

Delaware is not Alaska, and Rep. Mike Castle isn't Murkowski. Delaware is a state that has the unusual post-election tradition of "Return Day" where politicians of both parties meet together to bury the hatchet. Pundits interpreted O'Donnell's conservative ideology as inconsistent with Delaware's milquetoast political culture - very true - but it was Castle and the GOP establishment's decision to throw the opposition research book at O'Donnell that was even more out of touch with the state's non-confrontational environment.

Castle's brand was being above it all - he was the likable, familiar face who won and didn't need to go negative in his long political career. But in his first tough race in a long time, Castle brought the dogs out - something that gave some former conservative Castle supporters pause. After all, many conservatives voted for him in the past despite his moderate voting record - but now he was going after one of their own.

All the mudslinging in both directions helped O'Donnell. With so much dirt being dug up, who could take the time to figure out what was true and what wasn't?

Contrast the NRSC's track record, losing at least seven of their favored candidates in primaries with the Republicans' House campaign committee, which has played a much more behind-the-scenes role in primary battles. Last night, a host of moderate House candidates won contested, tough primaries against conservative activists - from ex-Rep Charlie Bass (NH 02), to Nan Hayworth (NY 19) to Randy Altschuler (NY 01) to Matt Doheny (NY 23). House Republicans didn't hype Bass' candidacy, even though he clearly was the preferred candidate of the establishment. And because of that, his conservative opponents weren't able to get as much traction.

It's a powerful lesson--sometimes the less said, the better. The NRSC learned that the hard way last night.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) had one of her best primary nights this cycle on Tuesday night.

Palin had 5 grizzlies in primaries Tuesday and, at this point, it looks like at least three of her candidates have won. A fourth -- Kelly Ayotte (R) -- is holding on to a narrow lead in the New Hampshire Senate Republican primary.

Most notably, Palin will get a lot of credit for Christine O'Donnell's stunning upset of Rep. Mike Castle in Delaware's Senate GOP primary. That alone is probably enough for Palin backers to declare victory for the night.

It is worth noting, however, that is unclear how much Palin actually did on O'Donnell's behalf. She cut a radio ad and robo-call for O'Donnell, but other than that it appears her footprint in the race was light. Palin also appears to be the focus of a large portion of the criticism from establishment Republicans who believe O'Donnell is unelectable in the fall.

Palin endorsed Ayotte, who is clinging to approximately a 1K vote lead over attorney Ovide Lamontagne in the New Hampshire Senate GOP primary, much earlier in the cycle. She also cut a robo-call for Ayotte.

Palin also earned a "W" in NY, where former FBI agent Michael Grimm defeated attorney Michael Allegretti in the GOP primary for NY 13. Allegretti was the preferred candidate of former Rep. Vito Fossella (R), who remains a powerful figure in the district despite leaving Congress embroiled in a scandal. Grimm will face Rep. Michael McMahon (D) in the general election.

In WI, Palin can also add a "W" to her scoresheet with former "Real World" cast member and Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy's primary win. Duffy defeated Dan Mielke by nearly 30% in a race that wasn't very competitive. National Republicans are very high on Duffy as he seeks retiring Rep. David Obey's WI 07 against state Sen. Julie Lassa (D).

Palin's main loss last night came in the Maryland governor's race. In that race, Palin backed Brian Murphy, who was trounced by former Gov. Robert Ehrlich in the GOP primary. Murphy was always viewed as a long shot candidate against Ehrlich.

Good Wednesday morning. After a late night following the riveting primaries, Hotline On Call is still sifting through the results. Here's what we know: It was a great night for Democrats, as the GOP's chances at taking a Senate majority were greatly reduced. The Republican silver lining is Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, who appears to be holding on to a slim lead over Tea Party backed Ovide Lamontagne.

In other news, the DGA is investing big in Georgia, indicating it believes former Gov. Roy Barnes has a strong shot at beating former Rep. Nathan Deal.

And be sure to check out all of Hotline On Call's primary coverage after the jump.

Democrats Delight: Democrats watched Christine O'Donnell's win over Rep. Mike Castle in the Delaware Republican Senate primary with glee. They have good reason to rejoice: O'Donnell's win make it very difficult for Republicans to win a majority in the Senate this fall. Republicans have to win every toss up race left in order to gain 10 seats and O'Donnell enters the general election against New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D) as a definite underdog.

Democrats have plenty to gloat about this morning. There's the fact that Castle is the eighth NRSC-backed candidate to lose or abandon a primary. There is also a new raft of GOP infighting going on, as a senior leadership aide told Hotline On Call that Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) went too far in endorsing O'Donnell.

"DeMint took it a step too far here, and I think he has lost the remaining credibility he had, even within the caucus," the aide said. "DeMint is not interested in a majority, he'd rather establish himself as the leader on the fringe."

DeMint fired back at the aide. His spokesman told CNN that DeMint is helping the party. "Based on the number of Republicans DeMint has helped get elected this year, I would say he's done quite a bit to elect a majority," DeMint spokesman Matt Hoskins said. "Perhaps the real reason some unnamed leadership aides are upset is that these Republicans actually have principles."

Establishment Republicans -- both in office and in punditry -- will probably continue this argument through the day, making the news cycle a very tough one for Republicans. http://bit.ly/bIjdLN

Ayotte Leading Lamontagne: One very important result still isn't in: the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary. With 85.3% of precincts reporting, former AG Kelly Ayotte is leading attorney Ovide Lamontagne by 979 votes.

Lamontagne jumped to an early lead as results came in Tuesday night, but Ayotte slowly chipped away before overtaking him.

A couple things to keep in mind here: First, the threshold for a recount in New Hampshire is a 1.5% margin and the application for the recount must be made by 5 p.m. the day after the primary -- so, today.

Second, if Ayotte holds on, it'll be the faint silver lining of the night for Republicans. Like O'Donnell, Lamontagne is Tea Party-backed and viewed as a much weaker general election candidate. If Ayotte holds on, the GOP still has a strong shot at the New Hampshire Senate race against Rep. Paul Hodes (D).

DGA Doubles Down In GA: The DGA has transferred $1M to the Georgia Democratic Party so it can maintain its barrage of ads against former Rep. Nathan Deal (R), sources tell Hotline On Call.

Democrats are increasingly bullish on former Gov. Roy Barnes' chances in GA, which they view as a top-tier pick up opportunity. In particular, they view Deal as a damaged candidate because of ongoing corruption allegations.

There hasn't been much polling on the Barnes-Deal matchup yet, but most analysts put the race in the tossup column.

Need more primary results and analysis? Check out all of Hotline On Call's coverage after the jump.

NH 01

Democrats worked hard in the closing weeks to tarnish businessman Sean Mahoney (R), and that work paid may have paid off as former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) defeated businessman Rich Ashooh (R) -- who appeared to benefit greatly from the Union-Leader's endorsement -- and Mahoney, 32%-28%-28%. Guinta will face Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) in what should be a good pickup opportunity for the GOP.

Mahoney's base is in the Seacoast, while Guinta's base is further inland in Manchester. And those voters generally came home for their candidates. Mahoney won Exeter, Hampton and Portsmouth with large percentages, but weren't enough to top Guinta's big haul out of Manchester. Ashooh, meanwhile, picked up big chunks of votes in Bedford, Londonderry and Merrimack.

Guinta was a very early recruit for the GOP, and the NRCC regularly touted him as one of their top candidates. But as the race continued he hit a rough patch in fundraising, and also found himself answering questions about a bar fight he witnessed in Manchester. That opened the door for other Republicans to enter the race, including Mahoney, who was the most well funded of those challengers.

Updated 9:37 p.m

Christine O'Donnell has pulled off a stunning upset victory in Delaware's GOP Senate primary, defeating Rep. Mike Castle and dealing Republicans a major blow in their quest to recapture a Senate majority this year.

With 86% of precincts reported, the AP called the race with O'Donnell leading Castle 54% to 46%.

Castle becomes the seventh Republican candidate supported by the GOP establishment to lose in a primary - following favored GOP candidates being upset in Nevada, Kentucky, Florida, Alaska, Colorado and Utah. The National Republican Senatorial Committee issued a terse, one-sentence reaction to O'Donnell's victory from NRSC executive director Rob Jesmer, not from its chairman John Cornyn.

"We congratulate Christine O'Donnell for her nomination this evening after a hard-fought primary campaign in Delaware," Jesmer said in a statement.

Just today, Cornyn told CNN: "I think it would be a shame to nominate someone who could not win that seat, and I think that Mike Castle clearly could. I have doubts about his primary opponent."

O'Donnell, who enjoyed the backing of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) and the Tea Party Express, will face New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D) in the general election.

One senior Republican leadership aide blasted DeMint for his involvement in the race, arguing he cared more about his own personal stature than a Republican majority in the Senate.

"DeMint took it a step too far here, and I think he has lost the remaining credibility he had, even within the caucus," said the aide. "DeMint is not interested in a majority, he'd rather establish himself as the leader on the fringe."

O'Donnell will go into that race as an underdog in the race against Coons, giving Democrats a strong chance at holding Vice Pres. Joe Biden's former Senate seat. Democrats publicly cheered O'Donnell's victory, and immediately portrayed her as out of touch with the state.

"Delaware Republicans chose an ultra-right wing extremist who is out of step with Delaware values. Christine O'Donnell cares more about imposing an extreme social doctrine than addressing the challenges facing working people," said DSCC chairman Robert Menendez in a statement. "Even the Delaware Republican Party Chairman has said O'Donnell is 'not a viable candidate for any office in the state of Delaware', and 'could not be elected dog catcher.'"

With Castle as the nominee, analysts believed this was a likely pick up for the GOP -- and a necessary one if they wanted to retake the Senate. Without Castle as the nominee, this will be a very tough race for Republicans, giving them a narrower path to win a Senate majority.

Updated, 6:10 a.m.

DC Council Chair Vincent Gray (D) defeated Mayor Adrian Fenty (D) Tuesday in the DC Dem mayoral primary in a shocking reversal of fortune for the once-popular Fenty, who was swept into office just four years ago after winning every precinct in the city.

With nearly 90% of precincts reporting, Gray leads Fenty, 53% to 46%. Those figures, released at 1:30 a.m. Wednesday, came after issues with new software prevented officials at the DC Board of Elections and Ethics from reporting complete results for roughly five-and-a-half hours, frustrating many at Gray's election night party at the Washington Court Hotel in NW DC.

The delay didn't dampen the mood, however, as supporters danced through the evening and into the overnight hours to soul and go-go hits and serenaded Fenty with the old Ray Charles song, "Hit The Road, Jack."

Gray finally addressed those still gathered in the basement ballroom of the hotel shortly before 2 a.m., when the AP finally called the race. "Tonight the people of the District sent a message loud and clear that they want to bring character, integrity, and leadership back to the mayor's office," said Gray.

NY 01

Businessman Randy Altschuler (R) withstood a withering assault on his outsourcing business to advance to the general against Rep. Tim Bishop (D), who GOPers believe is very vulnerable this cycle. Altschuler defeated atty George Demos (R) 45% to 30%, while Richard Nixon grandson Chris Cox (R) finishing in a disappointing third place with 24%.

Altschuler entered the race early and soon after began airing TV ads that both touted his business credentials and attacked Bishop as a tax-and-spend Democrat. But that didn't scare off Cox and Demos, who sensed an opportunity in this marginal seat and jumped into the race as well. Cox and Altschuler didn't hurt for cash, as both dipped into their personal fortunes to fund their campaigns (Altschuler dumped in $1.5M, while Cox added $1M from his own pocket). In total, Altschuler raised $2.9M to Cox's $1.5M.

The race soon devolved into a war of personal attacks, mainly between the two wealthy candidates. Cox was labeled a carpetbagger from Manhattan who lived at his uncle's house and didn't pay property taxes in the district, while Altschuler was tagged as an outsourcer who shipped thousands of jobs overseas.

Updated, 1 a.m.

Unlike the governor's race, the New York GOP senate primaries ended up being tight affairs with the Tea Party candidates taking a back seat to better known establishment candidates.

In the more marquee race, the AP called the GOP primary for former Rep. Joe DioGuardi (R) with 88% of precincts reported. DioGuardi led former Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass (b), 42% to 38%. Former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman (R), who had the backing of NY's last GOP statewide office holder former Sen. Alfonse D'Amato (R), finished a distant third.

Blakeman was the only candidate that did not advertise on television. Malpass ran four TV ads and touted an endorsement from Rudy Giuliani (R) while DioGuardi ran one TV ad and benefited significantly from his last name, shared by his famous daughter, ex-American Idol judge Kara DioGuardi.

The proof: potential 18-to-34-year-old voters favored DioGuardi big time over Malpass in the polls leading up to the primary. His last name may have also played a role in garnering support from New York's substantial Italian-American community.

In a battle of name ID versus money, money won out, as roofing contractor Reid Ribble (R) handily defeated former state Rep. Roger Roth (R), whose uncle once held the seat, 50% to 29%. Former state Rep. Terri McCormick (R) and Door Co. Board Member Marc Savard (R) took third and fourth, respectively.

This was a rather quiet primary, as the candidates disagreed on little. But Ribble, who was a favorite of national Republicans early on, raised enough money to air a good number of TV ads in the final weeks to pull himself over Roth and across the victory line. He'll face Rep. Steve Kagen (D) in the fall.

For representing a recent swing seat (George W. Bush took 55% in '04, Pres. Obama took 54% in '08), Kagen has taken some risky votes. In fact, he's voted for the "big three" -- the stimulus, cap-and-trade and the health care overhaul -- and that will provide Ribble with the ammunition he'll need to make the case to voters in this historically GOP CD that Kagen is out of touch.

Rep. Charles Rangel (D) won a convincing re-nomination victory Tuesday in the face of damaging ethics charges, thanks mainly to a divided -- and unimpressive -- field of candidates, and also to the 20 years of goodwill he's built up in his district.

Rangel topped Assemb. Adam Clayton Powell IV (D) and ex-CEO Joyce Johnson (D), 52%-25%-10%. Three others combined for 12%.

Rangel has had a bumpy ride this summer since word leaked in late July that he would face a House trial over ethics allegations. He has since been on a mission to convince the public that he did not knowingly violate any rules, and even took to the House floor to plead with officials to expedite his trial (which has yet to be scheduled).

But through all of this, Rangel never really appeared to be in serious re-election danger. Because the filing deadline had already passed when the charges were announced against him, Rangel's challengers were a rather subpar group. Despite his historic last name, Powell (whose father was defeated by Rangel in '70) faced ethics questions of his own, and raised just $125K for the race. He even admitted late last week he had no money for a get-out-the-vote operation. Johnson picked up the New York Times endorsement, but the $43K she raised didn't enable her to take advantage of it.

Developer Carl Paladino (R) proved conventional wisdom wrong on Tuesday as he toppled establishment candidate former Rep. Rick Lazio (R) by a 2-to-1 margin in New York's GOP Senate Primary.

With 45.5% of precincts reporting, Paladino claimed a 67% to 33% advantage; the AP called the race for Paladino. Still unknown is whether Lazio will continue running on the Conservative ballot.

Paladino's unapologetic style led him to lash out against the right-wing establishment while turning the race into a regional competition between his own base in western New York and Lazio's home in Long Island. His first set of campaign signs read "I'm Mad As Hell Too, Carl," and Paladino reveled in being politically incorrect.

In the general election, Paladino will likely continue the same strategy he and Lazio followed during the primary, which is to hit AG Andrew Cuomo with anything and everything. Cuomo has already been running his general election campaign, touting his "New NY" plan to galvanize public opinion against the state Legislature and toward him.

'08 nominee/state Sen. Andy Harris (R) didn't pay much mind to businessman Rob Fisher (R) and the $500K Fisher put into the contest, and instead squirreled away his money for what's expected to be a highly competitive general election. That turned out to be a smart move, as Harris shellacked Fisher, winning 67-33%.

Harris' weak spot in the '08 general was the Eastern Shore (he's from the Annapolis section of the CD), but he appears to have made some inroads in that area if tonight's results are any indication. In preliminary results, he swept every Eastern Shore county by more than 60%.

Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) is extremely weak in this heavily GOP CD, and Dems -- at least in early TV ad reservations -- have reacted accordingly, reserving just a small amount of time. Of course should Kratovil's fortunes change those reservations could be increased. But GOPers say Harris has learned the lessons of his '08 loss and is ready to correct them. He's got $944K in the bank (compared to Kratovil's $1.4M), and is in strong shape for the general.

MA 10

In the open seat race to replace Rep. Bill Delahunt (D), Democrats picked Norfolk DA William Keating over state Sen. Robert O'Leary by a 55% to 45% score, while Republicans chose state Rep. Jeff Perry (R) over former Treas. Joe Malone (R) by an even larger 61% to 30%.

The Democratic race had been contentious, with Keating going after O'Leary repeatedly for what he called "triple dipping" -- holding two part time teaching jobs along with serving as a state Senator. On the GOP side, while Perry had his flaws to deal with -- he was plagued throughout by a story from the '90's when, as a Wareham Police sergeant, an officer under his command was charged with conducting illegal strip searches -- Malone also had a problem from the '90s too. Just after he left the Treasurer's in '99, it was revealed that several of his staffers stole $9.4M from the office.

Perry may have escaped with a relatively comfortable victory, but minutes after the AP called the race for Perry, the DCCC sent out a release calling Perry a "scandal plagued Republican who can't be trusted." The primary is certainly not the end of this persistent story for Perry.

Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R) has won the GOP primary, defeating former Rep. Mark Neumann (R).

The AP has called the race for Walker, who led Neumann 57%-41% of the vote with 41% of precincts counted.

Walker was thought to be the favorite for much of the summer, but a lack of public polling on the GOP race contributed to the uncertainty surrounding the race in the closing week. After focusing much of his fire on Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) in recent weeks, Walker went negative on Neumann during the final week and a half, suggesting that the gap may have narrowed between the 2 GOPers. Neumann had also attacked Walker.

Barrett won the Democratic primary easily and will face Walker in the general election. The AP called the race in favor of Barrett, who had 90% of the vote with 45% of precincts reporting. Barrett was never seriously challenged in the Democratic primary and much of his attention has been on Walker during the past few weeks.

The two sides have already been sparring and have released TV ads that are critical of one another. Additionally, both the RGA and DGA have already actively involved themselves in the race. In the fall, expect an expensive TV ad battle and a race that will likely involve continued scrutiny on both the city of Milwaukee and Milwaukee Co., as Barrett and Walker are in executive positions in each respective locale.

Providence Mayor David Cicilline (D) emerged from a bloody primary to win the Democratic nod in the race to replace retiring Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D).

Cicilline topped former party Chair Bill Lynch (D), former Gem Plumbing President Anthony Gemma (D) and state Rep. David Segal (D), 36%-23%-22%-19%, to capture the nod.

Cicilline was seen as the early frontrunner in the race, and was attacked accordingly by his opponents. In the closing weeks, Cicilline had to fight charges from Gemma that he was chauffeured around the city at a cost of $500K a year, and also that Providence had $1.2M in unfunded pension liabilities, among other charges. The Mayor, though, raised over $1.3M for the race -- nearly as much as the rest of the Democratic field combined -- and was able to spend enough to weather the attacks.

Cicilline will face state Rep. John Loughlin (R) in the general election. Loughlin is a strong candidate for a seat that most would consider out-of-play for GOPers, even in a year like this that's trending heavily to the GOP. It has a Cook PVI rating of D+13 (just one GOP seat -- Rep. Joseph Cao's New Orleans seat -- has a higher D+ PVI), and Obama took 65% here. Even worse for Loughlin is that Cicilline holds a $450K to $67K cash advantage heading into the general.

Gov. Don Carcieri's (R) former communications director John Robitaille (R) has won the GOP primary for governor of Rhode Island, defeating former state Rep. Victor Moffitt (R).

The AP has called the race in favor of Robitaille, who leads Moffitt 69% to 31% with 63% of precincts counted.

Next up for Robitaillle is a general election contest in which he will find himself as an underdog against Treas. Frank Caprio (D) and ex-GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I). A Brown Univ. poll of the general election conducted July 27-30 had Caprio at 28%, Chafee at 27%, and Robitaille at 8%.

Caprio and Chafee have already begun campaigning against one another, with each campaign launching a TV ad critical of the other. Meanwhile, in a recent report, Robitaille says Caprio -- who did not have a challenger in the Democratic primary after AG Patrick Lynch (D) dropped out -- offered him a deal to leave the race through an intermediary. Another report indicated that Caprio met with RNC officials in February. Robitaille pounced on the news as did Chafee's campaign. If these issues linger in the race as the general election kicks off, Caprio may find himself playing defense on more fronts than many had anticipated.

Conservative developer Glen Urquhart (R) appeared to eke past party endorsed multimillionaire Michele Rollins (R) by about 650 votes (49%-48%) in the race to replace Rep. Mike Castle (R). Rollins' loss means the two social moderates in tonight's statewide DE contests (Castle is the other) have gone down in defeat.

Rollins took New Castle Co. -- which is home to Wilmington -- with 56%, but that wasn't nearly enough to counter the big victories Urquhart rolled up in the south (in Kent and Sussex Co.), where social conservatives carry more weight. Urquhart averaged 65% there. All of the precincts are reporting, but the AP has yet to call the race. Urquhart has declared victory, but Rollins' staff said she hasn't conceded and won't make any further statement until tomorrow morning.

National Republicans liked Rollins when she entered the contest, but some became disillusioned with her bid when it became evident she was not the best of candidates. Some also grumbled that while she raised a large amount of cash (she took in $800K), it was becoming obvious that she wouldn't spend the personal money it'd take to win the heavily Democratic seat.

Urquhart, meanwhile, spent $565K of his own money on the race, and attacked Rollins for her pro-choice credentials and also for sending donations to then-Sen. Joe Biden (D).

Businessman Ron Johnson (R) has won the Wisconsin GOP Senate primary, advancing to a matchup against Sen. Russ Feingold (D) that has more or less already been taking place for weeks.

The AP has called the GOP primary for Johnson, who made quick work of businessman Dave Westlake (R) and plumber Stephen Finn (R), 2 minor competitors. With 7% of precincts counted, Johnson led Westlake 85% to 10%.

Johnson entered the race in May and later that month achieved front-runner status when the leading Republican at the time, Dick Leinenkugel (R), withdrew from the contest in a move that caught many by surprise.

Feingold and Johnson have been trading barbs since the summer. An example of how heated the race has already become: Just this week, Feingold released a TV ad that goes after Johnson on the heels of the 2 campaigns sparring over a separate TV ad from the Johnson campaign that attacks Feingold.

Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) has defeated businessman Brian Murphy (R) in the Maryland's GOP primary for governor, successfully fending off the insurgent campaign of a 33-year old political neophyte.

With just 1% of precincts reporting, the AP has declared Ehrlich the winner with 82% to Murphy's 18% -- not much less than the 86% Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) is receiving in his own primary. Murphy's campaign received a major publicity boost from former AK Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) endorsement early last month, and she recorded a robocall last week touting Murphy's conservative credentials that reached some 260K GOP voters.

But in the end, Ehrlich -- who received a last minute endorsement from Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) -- never engaged Murphy at any level. Asked in early Sept. about his GOP opponent, Ehrlich responded: "I don't follow anything this guy does."

Ehrlich now begins a highly-anticipated rematch against O'Malley, who dethroned Ehrlich in '06 by a 52.7% to 46.2% margin. As of late August, O'Malley had $6.5M in the bank compared to Ehrlich's $2.5M. Experts consider this a toss-up race, with the 4 most recent publicly-released polls showing statistically insignificant leads between 0% and 6% for O'Malley.

As expected, former state Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen (R) has won New Hampshire's GOP primary for governor, defeating 3 other opponents.

The AP has called the race for Stephen, who leads the way with 73% with 6% of precincts counted. Stephen was never really threatened in the primary and became an instant front-runner in the GOP race upon entering the contest in March.

Stephen will face incumbent Gov. John Lynch (D) in the general election. AP has called the Democratic primary for Lynch, who has 84% of the vote with 6% of precincts counted. Lynch only faced minor competition in the primary.

Lynch, who is seeking a fourth 2-year term in office, enters the general election as a decided favorite in the race. The most recent live-caller poll, conducted July 19-27 by the UNH Survey Center, found Lynch to be leading Stephen 54% to 29%.

The DNC has transferred another big chunk of cash to its affiliated committees and state partners, according to reports to be filed with the FEC next week.

The committee set aside $1.67M each for the DCCC and the DSCC, giving the party's House and Senate campaign arms a critical infusion of cash for the campaign homestretch. The DNC has given each committee a total of about $3.17M this cycle.

And national Dems also handed out 6-figure checks to 7 state parties, ensuring that local affiliates have the money necessary to run turnout operations for critical contests.

Connecticut Dems, a party dealing with several tough House races, an open Senate seat and a governor's race, got $125K. Georgia, where ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D) is running for re-election, received a $350K transfer. Both Wisconsin and Texas, where Dems are vying for other governor's seats, won $250K transfers.

The DNC has invested most heavily in 3 states critical to Dem hopes this year, and to Pres. Obama's chances at winning re-election in '12.

An additional $200K transfer in August gave the Florida party a total of $933K in national funds. The DNC added $500K to the Ohio party, boosting their investment in the Buckeye State to $833K. And Pennsylvania, where several House Dems are working to save their seats and the state party is trying to keep both open Senate and governor's seats, got another $250K, bringing the party's total investment in the state to $583K.

The money is part of a $20M commitment the DNC has made to help directly fund House, Senate and governor's races this year. DNC chair Tim Kaine pledged the money earlier this year, in addition to $30M in cash and services the DNC is spending on turning out Dem voters who cast ballots for the first time for Obama in the '08 election.

The NRSC is going up with its first ad of the cycle later this week, targeting Attorney General Jack Conway (D) in Kentucky.

The ad, obtained to Hotline On Call, plays on old black and white movies featuring the Kentucky Derby. "Whose horse is Jack Conway riding?" the narrator asks.

The ad then prominently features Pres. Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and accuses Conway of siding with them on health care reform.

"Big government running health care, big cuts to Medicare. Jack Conway took their side," the narrator says. "Jack Conway, he's not riding Kentucky's horse."

The ad will go on the air later this week.

There are two ways to look at the NRSC picking Kentucky to air its first IE ad. Republicans insist that ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) is polling well in the race, and that this isn't a sign of weakness. Rather, they say, this is part of the NRSC's strategy to solidify leads in Republican states on the east coast so it can move its money into more competitive races to the west, like Wisconsin, Illinois, Washington and California.

Democrats, on the other hand, rejoiced at news of the ad. They say it is telling that the NRSC is having to go into Kentucky -- a seat that was previously held by a Republican in a deep red state. Democrats say that the ad is an indication that for all the talk about taking back the majority, Republicans still have to play defense here. They also note that if the establishment backed candidate in the race, Secretary of State Tray Grayson (R), had defeated Paul in the primary the NRSC probably wouldn't have had to play here at all.

Check out the ad below.

A keen understanding of when and how to mount an effective attack against an opponent is a crucial component of any successful campaign. Those that do it well -- attacking at the right time on the right issues and themes -- stand to succeed. Being quick to point out and pounce on an opponent's mistakes can often make the difference in a close race.

But what about when candidates openly admit their own mistakes in TV ads? Can saying that one has erred be an effective strategy in '10? Or does it simply reinforce criticism from opponents? For three Dem candidates this cycle, the answer to these questions will be found at the ballot box.

In the IA gubernatorial race, Gov. Chet Culver (D) has been trailing ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R) by double digits for months. Besieged by low approval ratings, the first term incumbent has been struggling to find a spark to help him significantly close the gap on Branstad.

Last week, Culver launched a TV ad, in which he says "I've made my share of mistakes. But they were honest mistakes and I've listened to your concerns and I've grown on the job."

"We've learned that some people seem to have shut down in terms of giving us an opportunity to take our record and our vision to the people of Iowa," Culver said when he launched the ad. "And so we want to hit the restart button this morning and make sure that people know that we are completely in touch with their concerns."

Democratic Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy is getting the jump on Republican Steve Stivers, airing the first negative ad of the race on Tuesday.

Kilroy is facing a rematch with Stivers in OH 15. In '08, the Stivers-Kilroy race turned into a blood bath and this ad is an indication we can expect plenty of fireworks this year as well.

The ad, obtained by Hotline On Call, hits Stivers for his work as a lobbyist for Bank One. It starts by discussing how many lobbyists already work in D.C. -- almost 12,000.

"When another big time lobbyist like bank lobbyist Steve Stivers runs for Congress? They pony up big bucks because bank man Steve is one of them," says "Susan," the ad's narrator. "Do we really need another lobbyist in Washington?"

The ad also features a menacing photo of Stivers.

The Kilroy camp used the lobbying attack in '08 and believes it was effective. Expect to see a lot more of this. The Kilroy campaign said the ad buy is significant and expects to air it for at least a week.

Check out the ad below.

This has to be one of the most hard hitting ads Hotline On Call has seen so far this cycle: Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL) is up with a new ad that attacks Iraq war vet Adam Kinzinger (R) for supporting free trade agreements.

The ad features a series of heartfelt testimonials from people who lost their jobs. "It's real hard to explain to my wife why I was losing my job," says one. "You get cut off at the knees."

In the final testimonial, the speaker levels a direct attack at Kinzinger as the screen goes black.

"Young man, you have no idea what you're doing," he says.

Halvorson is one of the more embattled Democratic incumbents, running in a battleground exurban Chicago district. Both the DCCC and the NRCC had reserved air time in this district, though a Democratic operative told Hotline On Call the DCCC buy around Chicago was recently scaled back.

Ad is below:

Updated, 2:42 p.m.

Pres. Obama's plan let the Bush tax cuts expire for the wealthiest Americans is meeting significant resistance among his caucus in the House, as 11 Democrats have now voiced their opposition to the plan.

The Democrats, nearly all of whom are facing difficult re-election campaigns this year, show that Obama is struggling to unite his party behind his economic plan. The tax cuts proposal and $50B in infrastructure spending were intended to be a major piece of the Democratic platform this fall.

But Hotline On Call reported last week that several House Democrats quickly voiced opposition to the infrastructure spending proposal and there appears to be a growing chorus of opposition to letting the tax cuts expire.

These Democrats, along with the opposition of Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) in the upper chamber, cast doubt on the proposal's chances.

They also put the Democratic House Leadership in a bind as it considers whether to bring the measure, which would allow tax cuts for individuals making $200K or more a year and couples making $250K or more a year to expire, to the floor for a vote.

On Monday, 4 Democrats circulated a letter on Monday to other conservative Democrats that urges House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to have a vote on extending the tax cuts for all Americans temporarily.

"We urge you to consider legislation to extend all of the income tax cuts," the letter from Reps. James Matheson (D-UT), Melissa Bean (D-IL), Glenn Nye (D-VA) and Gary Peters (D-MI) to Pelosi reads. "In recent weeks, we have heard from a diverse spectrum of economists, small business owners, and families who have voiced concerns that raising any taxes right now could negatively impact economic growth. Given the continued fragility of our economy and slow pace of recovery, we share their concerns."

Several other have already voiced their opposition to the proposal. Rep. Ron Klein (D-FL), who is facing a top-tier challenge from Allen West (R), told the Palm Beach Post that he supports a 1-year extension for all the tax cuts.

Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT) similarly told the Connecticut Mirror that "the economy has by no means recovered so my bias is that those high-end tax cuts should be extended." Himes' affluent district would be significantly affected by allowing the tax cuts to expire.

Other Democrats who have said they oppose letting the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest expire at this point include Reps. Bobby Bright (AL 02), Harry Mitchell (AZ 05), John Salazar (CO 03) and Gerry Connolly (VA 11).

Stay tuned, we'll keep this list updated as more Democrats announce their positions on the issue.

Update, 12:10 p.m.: A reader points out that an eleventh Democrat, Georgia Rep. Jim Marshall, has also said he supports extending all of the Bush tax cuts.

Update, 2:42 p.m.: Another reader points out that DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) indicated last weekend that he may be open to extending the tax cuts for a year.

"If they were to come back and say, 'hey, let's just do one year for the top 2%, and permanent for the middle class,' that would be something that obviously people would have to think about," Van Hollen said on "Political Capital with Al Hunt."

Van Hollen said on MSNBC this afternoon that Republicans won't back that proposal so it is a "moot point."

Republicans may be heading toward large gains in Congress this November but, according to a new poll, it isn't because Americans support their policy proposals.

The Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, conducted with the Pew Research Center, found that GOP proposals on issues like repealing health care reform and extending all of the Bush tax cuts permanently receive only lukewarm support from Americans.

Further, respondents don't know is leading the Republican Party. Fully 60% said they didn't know when asked who leads the GOP, while the next highest percentage, 15%, said "nobody is." Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) each clocked in at 5%, while House Min. Leader John Boehner hit 4%.

The poll's findings indicate that Republicans stand to gain more this year from dissatisfaction with Democrats than from support of GOP proposals. They also suggest that the GOP's best strategy for this fall is to avoid talking policy proposals and instead seek to raise Democrats' negatives.

On health care, 47% disapprove of the Democrats' reform bill while 38% approve -- bad news for Democrats. But only a third (37%) want to repeal the law, a major rallying cry for Republicans so far this year.

Similarly, half of respondents -- 52% -- opposed replacing Medicare with a system that provides vouchers for senior citizens so they can purchase their own private insurance, a cornerstone policy in Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-WI) "Roadmap" proposal. A third supported that policy.

Pres. Obama's poll numbers have plummeted in Connecticut, a state he carried by an overwhelming margin 2 years ago.

A majority of likely voters -- 52% -- in the Quinnipiac poll disapprove of how Obama is handling his job as president. Only 45% approve of his performance.

The numbers suggest that Obama is struggling even in deep blue states like Connecticut. Obama carried Connecticut by more than 20 points over John McCain (R) in '08.

The poll also indicates that Dem candidates may be wary of having Obama on the stump. Quinnipiac's polling director, Peter Schwartz, suggested that Obama is a drag on AG Richard Blumenthal's chances in the Connecticut Senate race -- even as he heads to Connecticut this week to campaign for the Democrat. The Quinnipiac survey found Blumenthal leading former WWE CEO Linda McMahon by 6 points -- 51% to 45%.

For Blumenthal, an elected official with a 70 percent approval rating, this race is surprisingly close," said Quinnipiac director Douglas Schwartz. "It is not that voters are wild about McMahon; her favorability rating is tepid. And many of her supporters are more anti-Blumenthal."

Obama is struggling among independents in particular. Nearly 6 in 10 -- 58% -- independents disapprove of Obama's job performance. Only 38% approve.

Good Tuesday Morning. It's primary day, so there is plenty to watch in seven states where voters head to the polls today. Here's what is on Hotline On Call's radar today: All eyes on O'Donnell, the two counties to watch in Delaware tonight, Dino Rossi has ground to make up in Washington and The Hotline's Senate rankings.

Also, don't miss links to Hotline On Call's primary previews after the jump.

All Eyes On Delaware: Who would have thought that Delaware would be the state to watch on the last competitive primary day of the year. (We can't help think of "Wayne's World": "Hi, I'm in Delaware.")

The political world is watching Christine O'Donnell to see if her upset bid materializes and she can beat Rep. Mike Castle in the Senate GOP primary. O'Donnell has been surging, bolstered by the support of the Tea Party Express and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin -- who cut a radio ad and robocall for her Monday.

O'Donnell also has become a lightning rod for the right. She has garnered the endorsements of Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), but other conservatives, from the National Review and Weekly Standard to Dick Armey's FreedomWorks, are criticizing her candidacy. If she wins the primary she is clearly a weaker general election candidate than Castle to take on Democrat Chris Coons -- for her personal baggage as much as her ideology.

A sign of the state of the race: Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer called Palin's endorsement of O'Donnell "disruptive and capricious" on Monday. http://bit.ly/9zQ36c, http://bit.ly/cfMdmI

Two Areas To Watch: Delaware only has three counties: Castle needs to run-up the score in New Castle County, the most populous, northernmost part of the state (Wilmington). O'Donnell needs to win Sussex County, the southernmost portion of the state most famous for the beaches that DC and Philly residents head to for the summer.

O'Donnell needs to win big in Sussex, the most conservative part of the state. John McCain (R) won this county in '08 with nearly 62% despite Obama carrying the state by more than 20%. And even in that Democratic year, O'Donnell -- then a Senate candidate -- ran nearly even with Vice Pres. Joe Biden (D) there. Most of the ads during the primary this year have targeted these voters, as many of the buys have been in the (fairly inexpensive) Salisbury, MD, market, which broadcasts into south Delaware.

Castle needs to draw out his supporters around Wilmington, his geographic and political base. In 2008, Castle significantly outperformed McCain in New Castle County; Castle earned 125K votes in New Castle while McCain got 71K (Obama pulled 151K in New Castle).

And Just Sayin': It is awfully hard to see how the GOP gets to 10 pickups -- and the majority -- in the Senate if it doesn't win DE or the other marquee primary Tuesday, New Hampshire. If Delaware is out of the picture, they would likely need to sweep the firewall trifecta of Wisconsin, California and Washington state - a tall task even in a huge wave election.

Murray Mo' Speaking of Washington, Republicans are be trailing in the Senate majority maker state of Washington, according to a new poll released late Monday. The Elway poll found Sen. Patty Murray leading Republican challenger Dino Rossi , 50% to 41%.

Rossi's entrance into the race earlier this year gave Republicans a solid shot at flipping this seat, which was considered safely in the Dem column earlier this year. This poll, however, suggests that the 3-time statewide candidate (he's run for governor twice) has seen his momentum stall.

Though Rossi has strong statewide name ID, he has never broken 50% in a statewide race and did worse in his second run than he did in his first. That has Dem strategists arguing that Rossi has a ceiling in Washington and isn't as big a threat to Murray as Republicans say.

All that being said, take these numbers with the proverbial grain of salt. Stuart Elway's polls are viewed skeptically by Republicans, who think he tilts toward Dems. This poll surveyed 500 voters and had a +/- 4.5% margin of error. http://bit.ly/dB9pc2

The DCCC is readjusting advertising buys in key districts across the nation, including in Arizona, where party strategists say incumbent Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D), Harry Mitchell (D) and Gabrielle Giffords (D) are running stronger than expected campaigns.

Dems had reserved a total of nearly $3M in the 3 districts, including more than $1.2M each for Kirkpatrick and Mitchell in the pricey Phoenix media market. Those numbers will sink in the coming weeks.

Mitchell is going hard after ex-Maricopa Co. Treasurer David Schweikert (R), who had to spend most of his campaign cash on a tough primary race. Giffords has a huge cash advantage over her GOP rival, and Dem officials are encouraged by public polls that show her leading.

While the party had been concerned about Kirkpatrick, a freshman, she is leveraging her financial advantage to go on TV shortly, and Dem polls show her rival, dentist Paul Gosar (R), has yet to build significant name identification.

Also working in Kirkpatrick's favor is a Navajo Nation election, to be held on Nov. 2, that appears alongside the House race on the ballot. Navajos vote overwhelmingly for Dems, which makes Dem strategists optimistic that Kirkpatrick will benefit from a boost in turnout. About one in 5 AZ 01 voters are Native American.

The DCCC is also adjusting their buys in North Dakota, where Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) is running a tough race against state Rep. Rick Berg (R). The party isn't giving up on Pomeroy; the DCCC is still spending coordinated money on his behalf, and he's benefited from having several party-paid field staffers operating in his district.

Just hours after the NRCC went up with its first major TV blitz, which included an ad attacking Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL 02), the DCCC responded with a volley of its own against Bright's challenger, Montgomery Councilor Martha Roby (R).

In the Democratic ad, Roby is accused of being funded by "special interests working to privatize Medicare." The spot also hits Roby for signing a pledge to "protect every single special interest tax break."

Additionally, the ad touts Bright's "pro-life" and "pro-gun" credentials, and also says he balanced every budget when he served as Montgomery's Mayor.

The NRCC ad, meanwhile, focused on Bright's vote for Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) as Speaker, and Roby's camp -- in its response to the DCCC ad -- again attempted to tie the two Democrats together. "It's clear that Nancy Pelosi and Bobby Bright will spend anything and say anything to keep this seat in Democrat hands," Roby manager Mike Hamilton wrote in a statement. "They believe Bobby Bright's vote is worth the millions of dollars they will spend tearing down Republican Martha Roby."

Records obtained by The Hotline show the DCCC ad is part of a $1.2M effort by the committee's IE arm to keep Bright in his heavily GOP seat. The NRCC, meanwhile, has reserved $600K worth of airtime so far in the district.

It's not surprising that both committees are playing early in this Montgomery-based district, as television time is relatively inexpensive.

Still, Bright is not considered among the most endangered of Democratic incumbents. Recent polling conducted for the DCCC showed Bright holding a 52-43% lead over Roby, while February polling by Bright's campaign showed the incumbent with a 54-30% lead over the Republican. He has also worked hard to craft an image that fits this conservative district, voting in his first term against all of the major Dem pieces of legislation.

The fact that national Dems are beginning their campaign so early here -- even as it plans to hold off most advertising until the campaign's final weeks -- is a sign that Bright may be more vulnerable than polls suggest.

See both ads below the jump.

Low name ID, voter apatha and an uninterested media are just some of the obstacles facing ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi (R), ex-Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass (R) and ex-Port Authority Commis. Bruce Blakeman (R) as they compete for the GOP primary on Tuesday.

Recent polls and attacks by Blakeman and Malpass suggest DioGuardi is the favorite heading into the election though his hold at the top is tenuous due to Malpass's financial strength and TV game. The latest Siena Research poll gave DioGuardi a 2-to-1 lead over Malpass with Blakeman three points behind. However, 46% of respondants gave no preference. The key issues in the race are job creation and fiscal conservatism with Malpass and DioGuardi touting their private-sector fiscal bona fides -- DioGuardi as a CPA, Malpass as an economist. Blakeman, meanwhile, promotes his time spent on the Port Authority's finance and audit committees. The problem? Almost half of the GOP electorate entered the week undecided.

Malpass has earned the most free and paid media to date by far. For months, his name surfaced more on Google News than either DioGuardi or Blakeman. In fact, DioGuardi's last name is more synonymous with his daughter, ex-American Idol judge Kara DioGuardi rather than his '86 support for the creation of a federal CFO. DioGuardi launched one TV ad while Malpass has fired out four, including an endorsement from ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R). Malpass has landed the biggest endorsements to date, including Steve Forbes, '06 NY-GOV candidate John Faso (R), the New York Post, New York Sun and NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg's (I) girlfriend, Diana Taylor,