Carly Fiorina's Path To Victory In CA SEN

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's weekly Path To Victory feature, where we look at some of the marquee races this year and how each side is planning to win. This week we're looking at the high profile - and expensive - battle between Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) in California.

Boxer, once considered one of the safest Democrats this cycle, is locked in her toughest re-election bid yet. Fiorina's entrance into the race, combined with the tough atmosphere for Democrats, has put this race on the map for the GOP while the Democrats hope it will be part of the firewall that prevents Republicans from winning a Senate majority.

Fiorina, however, still starts at a disadvantage. She is trailing Boxer 47% to 41% in a new Field poll out Friday, and Republicans always face an uphill fight in California, a state where Democrats have a 13-point registration edge. Since Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) won re-election in '06, GOP registration has dropped 5%. "If she does win," a Republican strategist said, "It'll turn conventional wisdom on its ear."

But, as Republicans tell you, there is a path for Fiorina, albeit a narrow one. And with that, here is how Fiorina can upset Boxer in November.

It's The Economy, Stupid: Fiorina's opening in this race is on the economy and jobs. California is a fiscal mess and unemployment is on the rise. Several analysts said this is the worst economic environment that they can remember. The state's unemployment rate is 12.4 percent - third worst in the country.

Fiorina is running squarely on the "throw the bums out" message. She's targeted Democrats, both in Washington and Sacramento, for failing to get the economy moving. She's already pointed to her work at Hewlett-Packard and say she knows how to stimulate job growth. (The Boxer camp will scoff at this, but more on that in her Path To Victory feature.)

And fortunately for Fiorina, that message jives quite nicely with what former eBay CEO and Meg Whitman's (R) is running upballot on in the governor's race. Analysts on both sides agree that Fiorina will benefit from the millions Whitman is pouring into the race for a couple reasons. First, a big message -- throw out the Democrats -- works for both. Second, Whitman is expected to have a strong ground game come Election Day that will help drive up GOP turnout and, thus, benefit Fiorina.

Barbara Boxer (D-DC): A big part of Fiorina's campaign will revolve around defining Boxer as a creature of Washington. Boxer is the first California senator to run for a fourth term since Alan Cranston (D) did in 1986, and Republicans believe Californians have grown tired of her.

Boxer has been in elected office for 34 years, and spent almost three decades in the Senate. The Fiorina camp will seek to make Boxer a symbol of extreme liberalism, the kind that leads to partisan gridlock in Washington. This strategy was on display in Fiorina's first ad on Thursday, which attacked Boxer for arrogance.

It begins with the famous clip of Boxer asking a general to refer to her as "senator" instead of "ma'am," saying that she has worked hard for the title. "Twenty-eight years in Washington and Sen. Boxer works hard for a title?" Fiorina says. "I'll really go to work, to end the arrogance in Washington." The commercial then goes silent with a picture of Boxer and the words "so wrong, too long" on the screen.

California Republicans point to Boxer's high unfavorable ratings to show she is vulnerable. In the Field poll out Friday, a plurality -- 48% --  viewed her unfavorably, a significantly higher percentage than in past campaigns. The key, Republicans say, is reminding voters why they don't like Boxer. Among issues that will likely come up: Spending, supporting an expansion of government and increasing taxes.

How She Gets There: The Republican path to victory in California is narrow. Fiorina will have to do very, very well in the Central Valley - the large agricultural center of the state that runs inland from Sacramento all the way down to Bakersfield. Counties in this area include Mariposa, Madera, Amador, Tulare, Kern and Calaveras, which all backed John McCain (R) in '08. Fresno went for Pres. Obama, but Fiorina will likely need to run up the score in that county as well. This area composes 16% of the statewide electorate and every Republican who has won in California recently pulled big numbers here. The unemployment rate here is as high as anywhere in the country.

Orange County and San Diego make up about 18% of the California electorate and will also be critical battlegrounds for Fiorina. Republicans say that if Fiorina can keep Boxer under 55% in Los Angeles, she will be in a good shape.

The Inland Empire - San Bernardino, Riverside - makes up approximately 12% of the electorate and has also broken Republican in previous statewide elections. Similarly, the counties north of San Francisco - which make up just 6% of electorate - have broken for Republicans in the past and Fiorina will need them to win this fall.

Demographics and turnout will play a big role for Fiorina as well. Based on past elections, a Republican needs to carry about a third of  the Latino vote to win. That may be tricky for Fiorina because of her  support of the controversial Arizona immigration law. However, there is high unemployment currently in areas like Los Angeles that Boxer counts as part of her base. If those groups don't turn out for Boxer or - better yet for the GOP - flip for Fiorina, the former CEO will be well positioned. In general, Republicans are operating under the assumption that the lower the turnout, the better it is for Fiorina.

Previous Paths To Victory
WA SEN:
Dino Rossi's Path To Victory
Patty Murray's Path To Victory

WI SEN:
Ron Johnson's Path To Victory
Russ Feingold's Path To Victory

WV SEN:
John Raese's Path To Victory
Joe Manchin's Path To Victory

OH 15:
Steve Stivers' Path To Victory
Mary Jo Kilroy's Path To Victory