DCCC Ad Plans Show Internal Disagreement
The DCCC's separate political wings are engaged in their first argument over one of their vulnerable candidates as the independent expenditure division begins pulling back funding while the coordinated division is pouring more money into the race.
Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN) is the source of the dispute. The committee's independent expenditure wing has cancelled their advertising buys in the state's 9th District for 2 weeks in mid-October. But the coordinated side, which is not allowed to discuss strategy with their independent expenditure counterpart, believes Hill is still deserving of spending.
The IE's decision is a significant blow to Hill's chances. While the independent expenditure side can spend unlimited amounts, the coordinated side of the DCCC can spend about $87K, according to FEC rules.
The DCCC is making other alterations in key districts, in some cases acknowledging an incumbent's weakness, and therefore saving money, while in other cases operating from a position of strength.
Most notably, the committee is shifting money in Ohio's 15th District, where Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH) faces a tough rematch of her '08 campaign against state Sen. Steve Stivers. The DCCC is cancelling ad buys from Oct. 5-18 and moving that money to the final 2 weeks of the campaign. That means, if the committee goes ahead with its reservations, they will be blanketing the Columbus area with 1400 points between Oct. 19-26 and 1500 points between Oct. 27 and Nov. 2.
But, party insiders carefully note, ad reservations are non-binding, and the DCCC can walk away at any point if Kilroy cannot make headway and demonstrate she is viable.
Kilroy's campaign is doing its best to prove they have a strong path to victory. The campaign is up with 1500 points of advertising this week, and they won't go dark for the next 6 weeks.
The DCCC is also sending a message to members who have a big cash on hand advantage, but who have yet to flex those muscles with a month and a half to go. The committee is scaling back ads in Pennsylvania's 10th District, where Rep. Chris Carney faces a tough re-election bid, eliminating a week of advertising. Carney has a huge cash advantage over ex-US Attorney Tom Marino (R), and Democratic strategists want him to use it.
The party is also cutting back on ads during the week of Oct. 5 in districts held by Reps. Dina Titus (D-NV), Kurt Schrader (D-OR) and Mark Critz (D-PA).
Democratic strategists say the party is optimistic about Critz's chances, following an internal poll that showed Critz ahead of businessman Tim Burns (R) by 7 points. Democrats want to reserve spending in Titus's Henderson, Nevada-based district in anticipation of a final, overwhelming push. And the party points out that Schrader has a big money lead over state Rep. Scott Bruun (R).
The DCCC has left their big advertising blitzes to the campaign's final weeks, according to data provided to The Hotline from sources that keep an eye on the ad market. The NRCC has taken a different path, advertising early in hopes of ending the Democrats' chances in order to save money late.
Over the weekend, the NRCC spent $1.7M on TV ads and survey research in 23 districts. As a measure of the positive climate in which Republicans are operating, only one of those districts -- Illinois' 10th District, being vacated by Rep. Mark Kirk (R) -- is held by a Republican.