Dems Say State Legislative Races Key To Obama '12 Bid
There has been -- and will be -- plenty of discussion whether Democrats can hold on to the House and the Senate this year and what that will mean for Pres. Obama's re-election prospects in '12.
But for a better indication of how Obama '12 chances, it is worth watching the most competitive state legislature races this fall.
Aided by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, Dems have made significant gains at the state level. They now hold majorities in 28 state Senates and 32 state Houses.
In their efforts to hold onto those majorities, 7 chambers in 6 states compose what Dems view as their "Danger Zone" this year, and those chambers lie squarely in Obama's re-election roadmap. They are:
CO Senate - Dems hold a 7 seat majority
IN House - Dems hold a 4 seat majority
NV Senate - Dems hold a 3 seat majority
OH House - Dems hold a 7 seat majority
PA House - Dems hold a 6 seat majority
WI Assembly - Dems hold a 6 seat majority
WI Senate - Dems hold a 3 seat majority
These are all states that Obama carried in '08 and he will need to win most of them again in '12 to stay in the White House.
"All of these states are critical for us," said Michael Sargeant, executive director of the DLCC. "It's about infrastructure. The more Democratic office holders we have, the more Democrats who can talk about the Democratic message closer to ground."
"That," Sargeanted added, "makes it easier for people to vote for Democrats across the rest of the ticket."
The DLCC's previous success suggests a strong case can be made that these state level races have significant implications for presidential races.
Dems have gained majorities in many legislative chambers since 2004 in states that John Kerry lost but that Obama won 4 years later.
These include CO House, CO Senate and NC House in '04. In '06, Dems took control of the IN House, IA House and IA Senate. The following year, they won back the VA Senate. Most recently in '08, Dems took back the NV Senate and OH House.
So of the 9 states that Obama won in '08 that Kerry lost in '04, the Dems had taken back at least one chamber of the state legislature in 7 of them.
Republicans have also identified these chambers as targets and are extremely confident in their chances.
"They will be very lucky if they hang on to a single chamber that they mentioned," said Chris Jankowski, the exectuve diretor of the GOP's "Red Map" redistricting program. "Red Map" is part of the Republican State Leadership Committee, the GOP's equivalent to the DLCC.
The RSLC anticipates spending between $18M and $20M this year entirely on offense. "We can confidently say that Republicans are not going to lose a single chamber," Jankowski said.
Jankowski added that Republicans are in position to go after Obama's base.
"Every district we'll play in was won by Obama," he said.
That, Jankowski said, will pose problems for Obama in '12. Like the DLCC, the RSLC will focus on providing grassroots, field and messaging support. If the election breaks the GOP's way, these races will present an uphill climb for Obama.
"When you couple that with the wave of new Republican governors, then you'll have a very solid Republican field team in states that are going to be swing states -- they have to contested by both presidential candidates," Jankowski said. "For Obama, they will be his path to re-election."
The rooster crowed. The sun rose. Therefore, the rooster's crowing caused the sun to rise. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
Once again, the politicians and journalists of America flunk basic logic. Sigh.