Five Dems Who Might Lose -- But Don't Know It

1. Phil Hare: The Illinois Democrat represents a sprawling district that stretches from the Quad Cities to Springfield, with a few creative twists and turns along the way. The gerrymandering has ensured Democrats have held the seat for decades, but now Republicans are optimistic they can pull a fast one on the two-term incumbent.

An early-August poll conducted for pizza restaurant owner Bobby Schilling showed Hare running only slightly ahead, and well below 50 percent. Hare isn't well-known in the district, and Republicans point out that the district has an above-average white population and a below-average college graduation rate. Democrats have suffered the biggest decline among non-college-educated whites, making Hare especially vulnerable.

Republicans believe the district's inexpensive ad prices make it ripe for a last-minute media purchase, possibly catching off guard a Democrat who thinks he's safe. History shows a Republican can do well in Hare's district; George W. Bush took 48 percent there in 2004.

2. David Wu: In a year dominated by economic worries, Wu's Oregon constituents are feeling the pain across all industries. His district, which stretches from suburban Portland to the Pacific Coast, is socially liberal, but the GOP believes the combination of an ailing timber industry on the coast and job losses in the district's inland hub of Washington County could bring out angry voters.

Washington County has long been a swing area that determined the direction the entire state would take. And while the county has trended increasingly to the left, Republicans expect it to get big attention from former Portland Trailblazer Chris Dudley (R), the party's gubernatorial nominee. If Dudley turns out Republican voters, that could help businessman Rob Cornilles (R) score the upset against Wu.

Still, Republicans have tried to oust Wu before without success. He initially won the seat in 1998 with 50 percent and a slim 3-point margin; he hasn't dipped below 58 percent since. It would take a real national wave to knock him out.

3. Nick Rahall: Perhaps no other state views President Obama as unfavorably as West Virginia, where the 17-term Rahall represents one of the least-educated, most heavily white districts in the country (just 13.6 percent of his constituents have college degrees, fewer than all but four other seats, according to Census figures). Those voters are the ones who have abandoned Obama in droves. In truth, not a lot of Rahall's constituents voted for Obama in the first place: John McCain won the district with 56 percent.

Though Rahall himself voted against cap-and-trade legislation, his party provided the votes to get it through the House. That could hurt in a state where King Coal still reigns, and Republicans are optimistic about the coal industry's interest in spending big bucks to elect some more friendly members of Congress. (A word of warning to those Republicans, however: One of the big contributors among coal companies is Massey Energy, the company whose mine collapsed in April, killing 29. Democrats know that.)

Rahall's opponent, former state Supreme Court Justice Spike Maynard (R), begins his race with name recognition. But that name recognition is largely negative, and strategists on both sides believe the race will be won by the candidate who is able to drive his opponent's unfavorables highest. So far, Rahall hasn't engaged Maynard as much as the Republican has taken on the Democrat.

4. Sanford Bishop: If ever turnout has mattered for an incumbent, it's for Bishop, the nine-term incumbent from Southwest Georgia. Bishop's district has barely more black voters (47.5 percent) than whites (47.3 percent), and those white voters tend to vote Republican on the federal level; Bush beat John Kerry in the district by about 850 votes in 2004.

In a wave election, Bishop needs a big African-American turnout to bolster his chances, while Republicans need to peel off just 5 to 10 percent of black voters to be competitive. One party strategist previewed the GOP's line of attack: Mail negative pieces about Bishop's votes for cap-and-trade and health care to white voters while bombarding the airwaves with allegations of scandal, aimed more at turning black voters to state Rep. Mike Keown (R).

If Republicans pulled off the upset and beat Bishop, it would be the only plurality-black district the party would hold. An internal Keown poll pegged him just 6 points behind, 50-44 percent. It's not a likely pickup for the GOP, but with a motivated white base and a depressed African-American base on the other side, Keown isn't completely tilting at windmills.

5. Rick Larsen: In 2000, Larsen defeated then-state Rep. John Koster, 50-46 percent, as Al Gore took his northwestern Washington state district, 48-46 percent. This year, in an economically depressed climate, Koster is back for a rematch.

Koster is a conservative, much more so than other Republicans who have held the district in the past. But Washington state will elect the occasional conservative. In 1994, the state booted five of the seven Democratic members up for re-election, including Speaker Foley, and replaced them largely with conservatives. If the state swings right again, Larsen holds the most vulnerable Democratic seat, along with the open seat being vacated by Rep. Brian Baird.

As in Wu's district, the Republican here will be helped by a higher-level candidate. Republican Senate hopeful Dino Rossi needs to run even, if not slightly ahead, of Sen. Patty Murray (D) in Larsen's district, meaning he will invest the resources necessary to do so.

Larsen has not raised an overwhelming amount of money, and he appears to be hoarding what cash he has, in hopes of dominating the airwaves in the final days. But Koster is making his presence known with a cable ad campaign -- a cheap way to get on TV, but an inroad nonetheless.

It is likely that any of these five members will return to the 112th Congress having won, perhaps even convincingly. But in any national wave, some members are caught unaware and out of touch with their own district. If that happens this year, these may be the victims of an unexpected soaking.