GOP Polls: Bad News For Dems Out West
Another week, another batch of polls from the conservative American Action Network that show Democratic House incumbents in trouble. This week, the group focused on 10 districts in the West.
The group surveyed 400 voters in each of the following districts: AZ-01, AZ 05, AZ-08, CA-11, CA-47, CO-03, CO-04, NM-01, NV-03 and OR-05. There was a margin of error of +/-4.9% in each individual poll.
When the Ayres, McHenry and Assoc. surveys -- which were conducted at end of August -- are combined, only 37 percent of respondents say their Dem incumbent deserves re-election while 52 percent say it's time for someone else. By a three-to-one margin, respondents said the country is on the wrong track. Pres. Obama is viewed unfavorably in in these districts by 51% of respondents.
Now, before we get into each poll, it's worth keeping in mind that this is a poll conducted for a conservative organization. And Dems have pushed back against American Action Forum's previous surveys, saying that -- among other things -- questions about health care and other issues are asked before the ballot test, potentially skewing the results.
Here's a cheat sheet to the results: Republicans lead in AZ-01, AZ-05, CO-03 and CO-04. The poll shows deadlock in AZ-08, CA-11, CA-47 and NV-03. Dems are leading in NM-01 and OR-05.
A couple findings buried in the polls jump out. In some of these districts (AZ-01, CO-03, CA-11, NV-03), 70% or more say the country is on the wrong track.
In AZ-08, Tea Party candidate Jesse Kelly (R) is in a dead heat with Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) -- 46% to 46%. Kelly knocked off establishment candidate Jonathan Paton in the GOP primary last week.
There is one Dem shining star: Rep. Martin Heinrich in NM-01. Heinrich leads Jon Barela (R) 49% to 42%. There are also signs that this district is firmly in Dem control, at least for now. A Dem leads on the generic ballot test here 40% to 36% -- a rarity in these polls. Obama is also viewed favorably by 52% of respondents in this district.
Check out a breakdown of the races after the jump. You can get the full polling data here.
AZ 01
Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 41%
Paul Gosar (R): 47%
AZ 05
Rep. Harry Mitchell (D): 44%
David Schweikert (R): 50%
AZ 08
Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D): 46%
Jesse Kelly (R): 46%
CA 11
Rep. Jerry McNerney (D): 44%
David Harmer (R): 45%
CA 47
Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D): 45%
Van Tran (R): 43%
CO 03
Rep. John Salazar (D): 43%
Scott Tipton (R): 51%
CO 04
Rep. Betsey Markey (D): 39%
Cory Gardner (R): 50%
NM 01
Rep. Martin Heinrich (D): 49%
Jon Barela (R): 42%
NV 03
Rep. Dina Titus (D): 45%
Joe Heck (R): 48%
OR 05
Rep. Kurt Schrader (D): 44%
Scott Bruun (R): 36%
Not good results for the Dems. As mentioned, this is a GOP polling firm, but even given that the incumbent Dems are in real trouble. Interestingly, this polling firm gives good news for Heinrich in NM-01 - the Dem incumbent leads 49-42. However, an independent Survey USA poll from July 2010 showed Heinrich trailing GOPer Jon Barela 51-45%. So I disagree with the assessment that Heinrich's in good shape.
I have now come across 40 separate Dem House incumbents who have trailed in at least one public poll during CY2010. Those numbers are mind boggling.
how does asking questions about the issues before the ballot test "skew" the results anymore than the democrats terrible performance on every measure? if they had done well on the issues that set up would probably skew in their favor. sounds to me like they want to decontextualize this election to a point they are basically asking the american voter to step into the same delusional frame of mind that their caucus and president have been inhabiting since June of 2008 - when Obama became his own one-man progressive show.
Dont believe the CA numbers particularly Loretta Sanchez's district. Not sure about CO-3. However, others are likely close to the mark.
The Leftists/ Marxists pretty much control the Big towns, they came from California .....
running like scaled dogs from the California
failure.. thus I can say Democrats have nothing to fear here.
Even the Past Gov. that drove the state to the brink of disaster is trying to get back into office, after the clown was forced from running for any more consecutive terms ..
He will probably win, for he is a leftist.
What's not to believe about the CA-47 results, George? - There's a reason CA-47's competitiveness keeps getting upgraded.
FTR, I think Tran winning CA-47 is less probable than Sanchez holding it, but recent developments in CA (e.g. the GOP regaining the registration edge in nearby San Diego county) certainly point in the direction of an Orange County district like CA-47 shifting towards the GOP.
But, of these results, CA-11 and CO-03 have to be particularly devastating to Dems, and NV-03 and OR-05 aren't much better. About the only semi-good news for Dems in these results is AZ-08 (NM-01 was always an "icing on the cake" opportunity for the GOP...), and even in AZ-08 Giffords is only about at 45% - a sure 'Danger Zone' for an incumbent...
This is a Strong Showing Early for Jesse Kelly. Jesse was Underestimated from the very beginning of His Campaign during the GOP Primary for CD-8 but after beating THREE other Quality Opponents to Earn His Right to go Head-to-Head Against a Phoney Blue Dog Moderate. I have no doubt or worries at all that the Registered Republicans in CD8 picked the RIGHT Candidate to defeat Giffords this time around. Jesse Kelly Won Every Single GOP Primary Debate Against His opponents. Jesse Kelly's Campaign Staff, Volunteers are Energetic and Dedicated to getting his message out. Jesse Kelly has proven himself to be a tireless campaigner and Disciplined Candidate Who has stayed focused on Giffords from the beginning. Please Continue to Support Jesse Kelly. He Will beat Giffords.
Harry Mitchell in Arizona is toast. He voted for Obamacare, some of the TARP bailouts, and cardcheck. He votes with Pelosi and the Obama administration and ignores the nonstop Tea Party protests outside his office, he doesn't represent his Republican-leaning district. He is completely bought and paid for by the unions (http://epaper.aztrib.com/Repository/ml.asp?Ref=RVZULzIwMDcvMDMvMTIjQXIwMzgwMQ==&Mode=HTML&Locale=english-skin-custom) Any incumbent polling less than 50% at this point in the race (Mitchell is polling 44%) is considered probably going to lose. Doesn't matter if this was a GOP poll - all the polling so far by Gallup, Time, etc. show Republicans beating incumbent Democrats by about the same margin - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html