John Raese's Path To Victory In WV SEN
Welcome back to Hotline On Call's Path To Victory, where we look at some of the most watched races of the cycle and examine how each side plans to win.
This week we turn our attention to the West Virginia Senate race for the late Robert Byrd's (D) Senate seat. The race pits Gov. Joe Manchin (D), one of the most popular governors in the country, against businessman John Raese (R), a local media mogul who has run statewide in West Virginia on four other occasions -- including against Byrd - in '06.
This is the first race we've looked at that isn't firmly in the "toss up" column. Manchin is currently the frontrunner for good reason: He has had tremendous success in West Virginia and has some of the highest job approval ratings of any sitting governor.
Nevertheless, West Virginia has been hit particularly hard by the economy and despite high Democratic registration numbers, the state has a strong conservative streak. One statewide Dem operative said 70% of West Virginians self identify as conservative; indeed, the Mountain State voted for Republican presidential nominees in the last three elections.
Further, Raese is a known quantity in the state. He's never won political office, but has run statewide campaigns before (unsuccessfully against Byrd). He can also run on a record of job creation. In a Republican wave year amidst a recession, this is a race that could tighten and, by Election Day, could represent a pickup opportunity for Republicans.
And with that, here is John Raese's path to victory.
All Obama, All The Time: Raese may be running against Manchin, but his campaign will be focused on Pres. Obama. Obama's poll numbers in West Virginia are among his worst in the country. As one West Virginia Republican put it, "he's despised here." Republican polling has found that Obama's disapproval is climbing toward 70% and support for health care reform isn't much better.
Raese will nationalize the race and Republicans believe he stands to benefit from the strategy in a big way. To do this, he'll seek to tie Manchin to Obama with steel ties. Raese will particularly target health care reform and cap and trade legislation -- two issues that West Virginians strongly oppose. This strategy is apparent in one of his latest ads.
"Joe Manchin's been supporting Barack Obama's liberal agenda for years," the narrator says. "Manchin supports Obama's government run health care and its $400 billion in Medicare cuts...We can't afford Joe Manchin in the Senate as a rubber stamp for Obama." Expect to see plenty more like that.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: If Obama is the national prong of Raese's strategy, the local prong is a jobs message. West Virginia has the second worst-performing economy in the country. Raese has a record of job creation. He is the CEO of several ventures, including a coal mining company -- an industry that is absolutely vital to West Virginia. One operative noted that every county in West Virginia receives coal severance taxes and supporting coal mining is a pivotal part of West Virginia politics.
Raese also owns 25 radio stations across West Virginia and is the founder of the METRONEWS network, which has 56 affiliates that reach every nook of the state.
Oh, and if there were any question as to whether Raese will be able to get his message out, there shouldn't be: Raese's radio stations guarantee him plenty of air time. He's also spent $1M of his own money on each of his 4 previous statewide runs.
Steal Manchin's Base: West Virginia's population is spread thinly across the state and there are no pockets of base Republican voters where Raese's team can drive up turnout. Instead the Raese camp will seek to steal votes out from under Manchin.
They plan to do this by targeting the solidly Democratic southern border area of West Virginia -- counties like Logan, Mingo and Raleigh. This area is home to coal fields and is considered part of the Democratic base. But these are conservative voters, what the Raese team calls "hardcore Democrats," that they believe may vote Republican. They also expect these voters to be particularly receptive to Raese's jobs message.
In the north, Raese is also counting on increased GOP turnout because of the competitive House race between businessman David McKinley (R) and state Sen. Mike Oliverio (D) in WV 01. The seat represents a strong pick up opportunity for the GOP, so Raese could benefit from McKinley voters.
On election night, there are a couple places to watch. The Parkersburg media market in northwest Virginia is small, but it's gone Republican in the past. Raese will need to do well here. If he can pull 54%, West Virginia Republicans say, he'll be in good shape.
On the flip side, Republicans will also be watching a few Democratic areas to see if Raese was able to make inroads. Bluefield, a very economically broken down city in Mercer County, is Democrat territory. But if Raese is close to Manchin here, it'll be a sign that his economic resonated and a very good omen for Republicans. Similarly, if Raese can limit his losses in Monongalia County, a northern county that is home to Morgantown, he'll be in good shape.
The 51st Vote? One last point: Raese's campaign believes that of the most competitive Senate races this year, it has the most to gain if the national environment continues to trend toward Republicans. If it looks like the GOP could win a Senate majority -- a long shot at this point, but still a possibility -- Raese's campaign believes West Virginia's conservative electorate will become highly motivated and break heavily its way because Raese would come to represent a check on Obama.
See Also: Joe Manchin's Path To Victory
WV-CD-1 race between Oliverio and McKinley could swing this race in either direction. On election day a lot is going to come down to the Fairmont, Clarksburg, Morgantown corridor. The Raese campaign won't be able to win in those areas, but they'll need to hope they can mitigate the damage that an Oliverio candidacy can do. The area has a strong and significant Italian population that is likely to turn out in force for Oliverio and pull the lever for Manchin while they're at it. There's no love lost for the President in these areas and so it will be interesting to see how much buy-in there is to the Manchin-Obama link. If anger at the administration trumps heritage, John Raese can win this race.
I would like to bring to your immediate attention the major flaw in this article, you have left out the fact that there are THREE WV Parties running for the United States Senate office, now the 4th, a write in.
Jesse Johnson, Mountain Party ran unopposed for this nomination in the Special, Primary and is the third candidate in this race. Why is it that the media continues to be unfair and biased? I have spoken to many West Virginians and asked them do you know Jesse Johnson is running for the Senate seat and they will say they did not. Then, I will speak to some and ask do you know WHY you do not know this and they will answer because the media, that is you and others, do not tell us the entire story, ever. Then there are others who just believe what the media writes and comfortably go on their merry way. The Media gives the other two corporate backed political power systems major headlines, it's all about the money. Obviously, the Mountain Party does not have the same sort of money to back Jesse, as the two major parties, but non the less, I am a member of that party and wish to have MY voice heard in the media headlines, that is where you come in. I am a native of WV, I vote, I pay my taxes, this is my state and I want my voice heard, please. How else can the PEOPLE have an opportunity to be heard, to nuture a grassroots party when the Media quashes facts, news, gives misleading or sensational headlines based on biased Polls?
There are THREE Political Parties on the WV Voters Ballot and the Mtn. Party has been one of them for the last 10 years. They are not a minor, write in party, but legally ON the Ballot. Thank you.
News is to be equally based and balanced in presentation. News is a public "entienty" not an opinion poll pushed by the reporting group.
If... you were in the "World Cup" of tennis and you qualified to be so. You would play, win or loose. You would be given your due respect and representation. Why is it the media does this with sports but not with all the politically qualified. . The meida insists on giving their perspective and not the facts and options as presented by all of the three running! Jesse Johnson of the Mountain Party needs to be recognized to an equal degree. There is absolutly no reason to not do so. Freedom of reporting demands it.
Interesting, I just heard on the cable channel tonight the republicans running for the senate who want to privatize Social Security. Raese is one, the commentator had to correct the state he represented, so this guy is not well known at all. The last administration was all for privatizing Social Security...where would we be today had that been done? AGI or CitiBank saying sorry we lost all the money or we used that money for bonuses for our executives. Raese seems to be another politician born with a silver foot in his mouth. There was a reason this guy lost all of his prior bids for public office. And why is he even allowed to run if he lives full time in Florida?
Raese is not trying to win this race. His negativity and lack of a concrete platform is unfortunate. He says nothing of what he would actually do to benefit the people of the state of WV or the nation. Perhaps this reflects a hidden agenda. What is it he doesn't like about having health coverage if you have a terminal disease or being able to keep a child covered on your insurance until age 26? Who are his major contributors? He incorporates a snake, which one can assume represents his tea party affiliation and their symbol of "Don't Tread on Me" in his WV ads. Anger is offensive and in depicting such denotes a lack of intelligence and coping skills. Emotions have no place in determining fair laws. Let's see some IQ and specifics. The eight years of Republican spending on tax breaks for the wealthy, wars and bank bailouts which were initiated prior to the 2008 election are what caused the problems we are in now.
Raese dresses in proliteriat blues in his TV commercials. He wants the people to think he is one of them. His campaign behavior indicates little that is humane at all. He has said nothing that indicates that he has the ability to do anything of merit. The air is hot but there is no pie in the oven.