Mary Jo Kilroy's Path To Victory In OH 15
Welcome back to Hotline On Call's "Path To Victory." This week we're looking at OH 15, where Rep. Mary Joe Kilroy (D) is facing a rematch against Steve Stivers (R).
Yesterday, we looked at Stivers' campaign plan. Today, we dive into Kilroy's plan for fighting a Republican wave.
One aspect of this race that is particularly striking: Both sides are confident that they will win. Republicans have seen Kilroy's personal disapproval remain consistently high throughout her first term, while Democrats believe Stivers' lobbying background and the district's base of young voters (at Ohio State) and government workers (in the state capital) will keep Kilroy in the game.
With that, here's Mary Jo Kilroy's Path To Victory.
A Different Kind of Swing District: Dems insist that OH 15 isn't the battleground Republicans say it is for one main reason: It has been somewhat resistant to the national trends that have affected other competitive districts. Columbus is the one part of OH that is currently experiencing both population and economic growth. Further, unemployment is lower here than in the rest of the state.
This has been reflected in polling. A poll put out by the conservative American Action Forum found a few surprises in OH 15. First, there was an even split on support of health care reform -- one of Kilroy's top issues. 46% supported the legislation, 47% opposed it. In most other districts, health care reform performed significantly worse. More, Pres. Obama was viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 46%. That's much better than he fared in other congressional districts in the same batch of swing-district polls.
That means that unlike other Dems in tough races, Kilroy won't have to run away from the White House. In fact, she's expected to get some campaign help from First Lady Michelle Obama.
Spoiler Alert: The American Action Forum poll found Stivers leading Kilroy by a 49% to 44% margin. That was welcome news to Dems because the poll didn't include either of the third party candidates in the race: David Ryon of the Constitution Party or Libertarian Bill Kammerer.
Those candidates will steal votes from Stivers, Dems say, and they have good reason for believing that: In '08, Don Eckhart took 4.25% on Election Day. Those votes came out of Stivers' tally and likely cost him the election.
Stivers faces a similar problem this year. Internal polling from the Kilroy camp taken earlier this summer found Ryon and Kammerer pulling up to 8% of the vote combined
Turning The Negative Message Up To 11: Across the Ohio ballot, Democrats will be running against Wall Street and big business - a message that already resonated against Stivers in 2008. Gov. Ted Strickland (D) is facing John Kasich, a former Lehman Brothers executive. In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) is running against Rob Portman, the former head of the Office of Management and Budget for the Bush administration. And in OH 15, Stivers is a former lobbyist for Bank One.
That's a whole lot of Wall Street on the GOP side. For the statewide candidates, Kilroy's district -will be critical to winning so they'll be devoting serious resources to the Columbus media market. On top of that, the DCCC spent $2.1M on the race in '08 and has already reserved air time this year.
What all this means is that there will be millions of dollars spent in central OH attacking Republicans for a being pro-Wall Street. Kilroy's team expects the many anti-Wall Street negative ads to piggyback off each other and cause the Republicans' negatives to skyrocket.
Amplify The Base: Kilroy's turnout strategy is pretty simple: Get Franklin County and, in particular, Columbus to the polls.
In '06, when she lost to Rep.Deborah Pryce, Kilroy pulled nearly 99K votes from Franklin County and carried the county by 8K. In '08 she greatly expanded on that: Kilroy earned 127K in Franklin and won it by 15K.
Some in the Kilroy camp even believe she underperformed in Hilliard and Upper Arlington -- two Columbus suburbs. Kilroy has dedicated time and resources there, hoping to squeeze out more votes.
Kilroy will have plenty of help with her GOTV efforts. Strickland and Fisher will need voters in her district to get to the polls and Dems believe Organizing For America has one of its strongest field operations in Ohio.
SPOILER ALERT: The real spoiler in this campaign is Steve Stivers who can be described as a social liberal. A vote for Stivers is a vote for Kilroy and politics as usual. The Republican Leadership spend; The Democratic Leadership spend more. The Republican Leadership create government. The Democratic Leadership create more government. Both of them increase taxes just one faster than the other. Most of them ignore constitutional restraints which is why Steve Stivers refuses to sign the Contract from America which demands that every bill sites where Congress has constitutional authority to pass the bill in the first place. Stivers and Kilroy are cheeks on the same butt. If the people want to be first in line instead of big banks, big unions, and special interests groups then consider voting for real change by voting for the constitutional conservative David Ryon.
Constitutionalists and Republicans have a candidate who deserves their vote without compromising their principles, values, or platform that person is Constitution Party Nominee David Ryon.
The Ohio Right to Life gave a preferred status to Stivers who is pro-abortion over David Ryon who is pro-life. Stivers waffled on 2nd Amendment rights as evident in his C+ grade from the Buckeye Firearms Association. David Ryon received a B* (the highest grade a non-incumbent can receive).
Simply ask yourself, which candidate honestly represents my principles and values?
"This above all: to thine own self be true," - Hamlet: Act I, Scene III, Line 82.
The people of the 15th District want someone to represent them that works hard and understands the concerns of average Americans who live by the rules and want fairness and accountability. Mary Jo Kilroy is a brave and dedicated public servant who has done an excellent job in her first term and deserves the support of every person in this country.
"The people of the 15th District want someone to represent them that works hard and understands the concerns of average American..."
Blah Blah Blah, that is such political gibberish. Mary Jo took an oath of office to honor the Constitution, then she promptly broke that oath. How's that for accountability?
The Constitution is what protects the rights of the people. A candidate that follows it would truly represent the people in their district. The only candidate in the race who will do that is Dave Ryon!
Mary Jo Kilroy understands the struggles of the people who live in Ohio's 15th congressional district. She has worked to help--homeowners keep their homes, assist college students with more opportunities, lower health care costs, protect workers, supported our military, and tried to get people back to work by promoting the stimulus. The fact that the Republicans refuse to help the average American is scandalous. Republicans, like Steve Stivers, a former bank lobbyist, care only about the rich and their tax cuts. Giving the rich a tax cut is a job killer because they would only pocket the money for themselves. Stivers, who has been propped up by Boehner, bank PACs, individual bankers, major polluters, and insurance firms, is interested in removing banking regulations, and has voiced his opposition to the new financial regulation law. Stivers has voted against stem cell research, disability scholarships, lowering the rates of payday lenders, and even tried to alter a raise in the state minimum wage so that it would not apply to some workers. Stivers supports continuing the Bush tax cuts that got us into this mess. Stivers was for cap and trade, but is now against it. Stivers walks, talks, and continues behave like a bank lobbyist.
The take away from this article is a vote for Ryon or Kammerer is a vote to keep Kilroy in Congress and keep the spending and Obamacare. It's too bad David Ryon or Teri Owens can't even vote in the 15th district. But it's good Astroturf. Perhaps the "Constitution Party of Ohio" should be working on figuring out how to replace their US Senate Candidate who has been arrested for having sex with a young teenage minor.
Actually being from the district and can vote in the district Kilroy is toast. She has been running misleading ads and using our taxpayer money to send out government mailings to promote herself and her extreme liberal agenda. I have noticed she hasn't said one word about the most important issue for us in the 15th district.. JOBS.
Apparently, Dave Ryon has plenty of time to stay up all night attacking his opponent (which he, oddly enough, doesn't seem to believe is Mary Jo). What is it you actually do for a living Mr. Ryon? You look like a Democratic plant.
As for the article, I was struck by the fact that although Kilroy released polling showing the 3rd party candidates taking 8% of the vote, she kept the poll itself secret.
There is one possible explanation for this - BY HER OWN INTERNAL POLLING, EVEN WITH 8% GOING TO 3RD PARTIES, SHE LOSES.
Her only hope is that kooks like David Ryon take a good chunk of the vote and allow her to win with a plurality of the vote.
I bet both the Kilroy and Stivers camps would both agree on one thing.
A vote for David Ryon helps nobody but Kilroy.
David Ryon's home was vandalized recently. David and his family would appreciate you contacting the Columbus Police Department if you have any information. This act of vandalism had the potential of causing serious physical harm to his family.
The personal attacks are very disappointing.
Kook? Shame on you, Mary Buttrick. You call someone a "kook" because they don't agree politically with your chosen personal candidate? You seem to be really quick with the names. Also, calling David Ryon a "Democratic Plant" displays great ignorance, seeing how he's by far the most conservative candidate in the race.
Shame on you, Nancy Jones, for trying to tie the issues of one candidate, in a completely different race, to another solely because they happen to be from the same party. Do I really need to link all the scandals of both Republicans and Democrats alike? I'll also remind you that someone is innocent until proven guilty unless, of course, you don't believe in the American Judicial system? Also, shame on you for the red herring of residency. According to the constitution there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Unless, of course, you don't believe in the United States Constitution?
If you have a problem with someone's political beliefs, fine, that's what makes this country great. But don't stoop to such levels as making personal attacks and accusations of things you know nothing about.
I have the honor of knowing David Ryon personally, and I can assure you his sole motivation is love of his country and genuine sadness that there are no other candidates in this race that represent real conservative values.
Dude, Dave Ryon. Why do you keep talking about yourself in the third person? Kind of creepy.
From what I'm seeing of you, you really do look like a kook. Sorry Mark Stefanski.
Are you still promoting the North American Union conspiracy? Are you still arguing for the creation of new bureaucracy - the "Department of Peace?"
Let's get something straight, with views like those you are not a conservative in any traditional sense.
As Editor of the Free Press Mary Jo Kilroy wrote much of the protected Soviet worker. As an extreme left wing socialist she was of the belief that the government should be totally in control of everything, praising the Soviet Union for protecting workers rights. (Did she ever go there and see how horrible the lives of Soviet workers were? When I asked my relatives why they would not go fishing in my father's stream, they said that is only for the government. When I asked them when they stood in line for hours to buy food, why they did not go buy baked goods in that beautiful bakery, they said, that is only for the government..could this be why she is today a member of the government?..She frightens me and people like her who are out to destroy our system of free enterprise)
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they attack you, then you win." - Mahatma Gandhi
I have been ignored.
I have been called names like you might hear in an elementary school yard.
My home was attacked through acts of vandalism with holes in my two front windows.
The only thing left is for me to win on November 2nd.
I'm not David Ryon, "John". But I guess when you're a hammer, the rest of the world looks like a nail.
The student vote will be non-existent in the November voting. MJK will not win because of that fact. Period.