NRCC Buys Time For Herrera, Barela
The NRCC is investing heavily in state Rep. Jaime Herrera's (R) bid for retiring Rep. Brian Baird's (D) seat in Washington.
Party sources tell Hotline On Call that the NRSC has purchased $900K of air time in the Portland media market from 9/24 to 10/21. Although the Portland market also covers other districts, that money will be used exclusively to air ads on Herrera's behalf.
The NRCC's investment suggests this will be one of the costliest races this cycle. It also shows that the Republicans are trying to get a jump on the DCCC in the district. The DCCC has reserved $1M worth of air time in the Portland market, but that time doesn't begin until 10/5.
Herrera is locked in a tight race against former state Rep. Denny Heck (D) in WA 03, a major battleground district this year.
The NRCC is also going on the offense in New Mexico, purchasing $300K for October in Rep. Martin Heinrich's (D) NM 01 district. The NRCC is trying to catch Democrats by surprise here; the DCCC has not reserved time in the district yet. Heinrich faces former New Mexico GOP Vice Chair Jon Barela (R).
Both Barela and Heinrich have already gone on the air. Barela has aired a positive spot while Heinrich has gone up with two ads, most recently an attack on Barela.
Uh, a "tight race"? Is a lead by 9 with 52% for Herrara (not to mention the earlier 'jungle' primary result) really "tight"?!
My guess is that the DCCC ends up passing on their ad buy here (or redirects it to OR-05 (and/or OR-01)) - I think the DCCC is much more likely to spend in WA state trying to save WA-02. WA-03 already looks to be a goner for them...
I don't think the Dems will give up on WA-03. Any investment to get out voters in that district also helps to get voters out for their very vulnerable senator, Patty Murray. But at the end of the day I think the GOP picks off WA-02 and -03.
Incumbent Dem Martin Heinrich has trailed Jon Barela in two separate 2010 polls so far. One a GOP poll from August (49-42%), and the other a Survey USA poll from July (51-45%).
Actually, Coop, while the SurveyUSA poll from July did show Barela ahead in NM-01, two more recent August polls have shown Heinrich ahead (but below 50%) - see here.