Races To Know: MO SEN, NV SEN, WV SEN
MO SEN: Democrats released a poll last week that indicates that this race is closer than ever. A Garin-Hart-Yang Research poll (D) of 701 likely voters conducted Sept. 20-22 showed GOP Rep. Roy Blunt at 41%, followed by Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan at 40%, Constitution Party candidate Jerry Beck at 3%, and Libertarian candidate Jonathan Dine at 2%.
Presumably the 5% of the vote going to the Constitution and Libertarian nominees would otherwise go to Blunt. But, can Beck and Dine expect these percentages on Election Day? Recent history says no. In the '04 Senate and gubernatorial races, the Libertarian and Constitution candidates combined for 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively. In the '06 Senate contest, the Libertarian candidate took 2.2%, and in the '08 governor's race, the Libertarian and Constitution nominees combined for 2.1%. In other words, the odds are better than not that Beck and Dine won't get a total of more than 3%, which means that Blunt may be a bit further ahead than these polls suggest. More worrisome for Democrats is that Carnahan hasn't been ahead in any survey since early January.
NV SEN: A Public Opinion Strategies poll (R) of 500 likely voters conducted Sept. 21-23 gave Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) a 5-point advantage over Republican Sharron Angle, 45% to 40%. This is the largest lead that Reid has seen in any survey since mid-July. In fact, the Pollster.com trend line of all general election polls puts Reid's advantage at a single point, 45% to 44%.
This latest poll raises the question of whether Reid is finally getting control of this race. The answer is maybe. Reid has thrown roughly $5M in attack television and radio ads at Angle, and perhaps they are starting to have an impact. Still, while this survey might be the first sign that Reid is beginning to open something that resembles a lead, a single poll is not a trend. The next 2 or 3 surveys will either confirm the Public Opinion Strategies' results, or show that the race continues to be nip and tuck.
WV SEN: This special election to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Robert Byrd's term was supposed to be a walk in the park for Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin. The Democratic-controlled state legislature set the table for him with an advantageous schedule of filing deadlines, primaries and special election dates. But, recent polling indicates that this will be anything but an easy race.
A Rasmussen (IVR) poll of 750 likely voters conducted Sept. 27 gave Republican businessman John Raese a 2-point lead over Manchin, 48% to 46%. A Public Policy Polling (IVR) survey taken a week earlier had Raese ahead, 46% to 43%. (The PPP survey was conducted Sept. 18-19 and surveyed 1,397 likely voters.)
Although Manchin remains popular -- his job approval rating in a Sept. 19 Rasmussen survey was 69% -- he must make the transition from being the state's chief executive to being federal candidate in a hostile climate for his party. A case in point is Pres. Obama whose approval ratings in West Virginia are some of his lowest nationally. According to the PPP survey, Obama's job ratings were 30% approve to 64% disapprove. Polling aside, Manchin's attacks on Raese are as good an indication as any that this race has gotten very competitive.
Re: NV-Sen I think you need to take note that even if Reid's ad blitz is hurting Angle it has failed to strengthen his own position - he continues to languish in the mid-40s in head-to-head polls, almost always deadly for incumbents, and exacerbated by Sandoval's substantial lead in the Gubernatiorial race that will aid turnout of GOP and GOP leaning voters, while Reid will have to garner 50%+1 soley with the strength of his own campaign.
This is pretty crummy analysis - as pointed out in the comment above, in the NV SEN race Reid is *still* at 45%, even in the new poll. I'm guessing the POS poll didn't push 'leaners' very hard. But, bottom line - Harry Reid has been at 45% for about 6 months. That's not the profile of an incumbent who's going to pull out this race.