Starting Lineup: Midwest Trouble For House Dems

Updated 11:30 a.m.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. What we're watching today: 5 NRCC internal polls obtained by Hotline On Call show Democrats in big trouble in contested Midwest House races, Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) surges in Maryland and Pres. Obama continues his economic tour.

Dem Midwest Trouble: New polling out of the Midwest commissioned by the NRCC shows House Democrats facing sizable deficits in competitive races so far.

In 4 targeted districts, the Democrat in the race is trailing by double digits. And Rep. Phil Hare (D-IL), viewed in strong shape at the beginning of the year, now looks to be ins serious trouble, trailing his Republican challenger by one point. (It's no coincidence the DCCC reserved air time Tuesday in his district.)

Like all partisan polls, the NRCC surveys should be taken with a grain of salt. These numbers do, however, mirror national and statewide polls in the region that show Pres. Obama's approval rating below 45% and Republicans enjoying a near double digit advantage on the generic ballot.

The polls featuring incumbent Democrats are most striking. In WI 08, Rep. Steve Kagen (D) is trailing roofing contractor Reid Ribble (R) 57% to 39% in a On Message poll of 400 likely voters conducted Sept. 15-16. While Kagen was always seen as a target - the DCCC had reserved time in the Green Bay district -- these are miserable numbers for an incumbent.

Hare trails businessman Bobby Schilling (R) 44% to 43% in a Tarrance Group survey that was conducted Sept. 23-25. When asked if Hare deserved re-election or if it was time for someone else, just 35% of respondents he should be re-elected.

Retiring Rep. David Obey's seat in WI 07 has been one of the most targeted races of the cycle so far. Both the NRCC and the DCCC have run ads to boost the campaigns of former "Real World" star and Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy (R) and state Sen. Julie Lassa (D). The NRCC poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates from Sept. 15-16, shows Duffy holding a commanding 52% to 38% lead over Lassa among 400 likely voters. Those numbers are strikingly different than the internal poll Lassa released Tuesday showing her trailing Duffy 42% to 41%.

Michigan's 1st District seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Bart Stupak (D), has also been a target for both parties, as both the NRCC and DCCC have aired ads there. The NRCC survey, conducted by Hill Research Consultants Sept. 19-21, found Republican Dan Benishek leading Democrat Gary McDowell 40% to 24% among 400 likely voters. In this Upper Peninsula district, Obama is viewed unfavorably by 56% in the survey.

Lastly in the open seat race for Rep. Brad Ellsworth's (D) IN 08, heart surgeon Larry Bucshon (R) leads state Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D) leads 41% to 20% in an On Message survey of 400 likely voters. Respondents said they would prefer a Republican on the generic ballot question, 45% to 29% in that poll, which was conducted Sept. 13-14.

All of the surveys had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

O'Malley Opening A Lead: The Maryland governor's race appears to be defying the national GOP atmosphere, as a new poll shows Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) opening up a double digit lead over former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R).

The Washington Post survey out Wednesday shows O'Malley leading Ehrlich 52% to 41%. The last time the Post surveyed the race back in May, O'Malley led by 8%.

The poll shows how difficult it is for a Republican to win statewide in Maryland, a state where President Obama is viewed favorably. Ehrlich has the backing of nearly every Republican in the poll and has a wide lead among independents -- 54% to 34%. But he's got little appeal to Democrats, which make up 57 percent of the state's electorate.

O'Malley has been steadily climbing in polls since the summer. Wednesday's poll surveyed 730 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Gubernatorial races are more insulated from national congressional trends, and Democrats are counting on the strength of individual candidacies to trump the poor national climate, particularly in states like Georgia, Florida and Texas. http://wapo.st/av8IiZ, http://bit.ly/9lJ2Gc

White House Watch: Pres. Obama continues his economy tour today, stopping in two states that he carried in '08 and are critical to both Democratic chances this year and his re-election prospects in '12.

Obama will start the day in Des Moines, Iowa. As he has done on previous stops this week, Obama will meet first with one family (closed press) then with several families (open press). Gov. Chet Culver (D-IA) -- who is facing double digit deficits in his re-election campaign against former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) -- will attend the event, though the White House has said it isn't a campaign stop.

Obama then heads to Richmond, Virginia, later in the day. He'll have the same schedule there -- private meeting with one family then an event with several that will be public.

This post originally misstated the results of the May Washington Post poll on the Maryland governor's race.