Starting Lineup: Watching Wisconsin

Good Friday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Wisconsin a pivotal battleground for Dems this fall, WH shifting on the economy ahead of a jobs report, and voters casting ballots against the Democrats.

Wisconsin: Pres. Obama will head to Milwaukee for a Labor Day rally with the AFL-CIO on Monday. Obama's trip comes after House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) was in the Badger State this week for a foreign policy speech

So why all this focus on Wisconsin? The answer is simple: Wisconsin has quickly become one of the most important battlegrounds of the cycle.

Let's take look at the ballot starting at the top:

In the governor's race, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) will likely face Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R) in a competitive open seat race. Strategists from both parties acknowledge that Walker has an edge, but Democrats believe it's still a winnable race.

Sen. Russell Feingold (D) is facing the toughest test of his career against businessman Ron Johnson (R). On Thursday, Johnson reported having raised more than Feingold in his pre-primary FEC report. The Republican hauled in $1.2M to Feingold's $920K. Johnson has also loaned his campaign more than $4M so far. (Feingold still has more CoH than Johnson at the moment though -- $3.1M to $1.6M.)

Wisconsin is also a major priority for House campaign operatives -- with two of the state's House races shaping up to be major battles. The DCCC aired its first IE ad of the cycle this week, targeting former "Real World" star and ex-Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy (R) in WI 07, retiring Rep. David Obey's (D) Democratic-leaning district. Both Duffy and his Democratic challenger Julie Lassa tallied strong fundraising numbers in their pre-primary reports: Lassa brought in $235K to Duffy's $233K. And polling we've seen suggests Rep. Steve Kagen (D-WI) is awfully vulnerable, even as he doesn't yet know who he'll be facing in November. (Republicans nominate their candidate on Sept. 14.)

Finally, Dems are hoping to maintain precarious majorities in Wisconsin's state legislature. Dems currently have a 3-seat advantage in the Wisconsin Senate and 6-seat advantage in the Wisconsin Assembly. Both houses are in play. http://bit.ly/95bQnM.

Stimulus Part Deux? Obama's focus on the economy may be giving GOPers a big "I told you so" moment. The Washington Post reported Thursday evening that the admin. is considering a second stimulus in the form of tax breaks for businesses.

The WH is pushing back on some parts of the story -- such as the consideration of a payroll tax. But it's looks like the WH will announce something soon, perhaps when Obama delivers economic remarks in Cleveland next Wednesday.

We've written previously that Obama has been struggling to find his footing on the economy, and this is clear in his effort to right the ship before what is expected to be a bad jobs report today and before the midterms. The plan, however, will likely come with significant backlash from Republicans who have advocated for similar policies for more than a year. http://bit.ly/btyLvp

Voting Against The Dems: Gallup numbers out this morning provide perhaps the best insight to the GOP strategy this cycle. The poll found that nearly as many voters backing Republican candidates are doing so because it's a vote against the Democrat as it is for the Republican. Among GOP supporters 44% said their vote was "more a vote against the Democratic candidate," while 48% said it was "more a vote for the Republican candidate."

Some interesting context: In '94, before the GOP takeover of the House, the spread on this question was larger for Republicans. A majority of GOP supporters that year -- 59% -- said they were voting for the GOP and a third -- 34% -- said they were voting against Dems.

The numbers touch upon one of the big questions out there this cycle: Do Republicans need to offer a specific plan for how they will govern to take back the House? These numbers suggest that they don't. http://bit.ly/9UT2xF

What else are you watching today? The comments section awaits below.