Starting Lineup: Raising Arizona

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. On the docket today: Democrats look to take control of the economic narrative, House Republicans grow bullish on Arizona, unpredictable polling numbers and a Hawaii showdown.

Arizona: If the fireworks in the Senate GOP primary between ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth and Sen. John McCain weren't enough for you, expect plenty of action on the House side in Arizona this year. The NRCC bought air time in four new districts on Tuesday, including two Arizona House seats held by Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) and Harry Mitchell (D).

Driving the GOP enthusiasm about Arizona is immigration. Unlike most states where the economy is the top issue, Republican polling has found that Immigration isn't far behind in Arizona -- and that a clear majority of voters back Gov. Jan Brewer's tough-on-illegal immigration measures. The fact that the Justice Department is aggressively contesting the law - and the three Democrats haven't had much to say about it - is fueling Republican enthusiasm, and making the elections more difficult for the three recently-elected incumbents.

Republican strategists privately say that Kirkpatrick and Mitchell -- who occupy districts McCain carried in 2008-- are very likely pickups. They are also bullish about their chances against Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), even though the NRCC didn't get its favored candidate, with Tea Party backed Jesse Kelly as her challenger. Kelly will be going on air soon, and if he puts together a solid campaign, will likely get help from the NRCC as the election draws closer.

Dem Message Discipline: Democrats will try to hone their economic message with a three pronged attack today. First, DNC Chairman Tim Kaine will give a speech at the University of Pennsylvania taking aim at Republicans.

"Instead of working with Democrats to help to rebuild our economy and the middle class, Republicans have opposed every effort to undo the economic damage that their policies created," Kaine will say, according to prepared remarks. "Republicans are more interested in positioning themselves for the next election than they are the American people for the next generation."

Kaine will lay out scathing criticism of House Min. Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and GOP Senate candidates Sharron Angle (NV), Ken Buck (CO), Joe Miller (AK), and Rand Paul (KY), portraying them as out of the mainstream.

"Just recently Mr. Boehner led Republican opposition to legislation to help states facing tough times keep teachers, firefighters and police on the job," Kaine will say. "In Mr. Boehner's world -- teachers, police and firefighters are undeserving special interests but companies which use tax loopholes to ship American jobs overseas deserve some type of special protection. Incredible."

Pres. Obama will then deliver remarks at the Cuyahoga Community College West Campus in Cleveland. According to the New York Times, Obama will oppose extending the Bush tax cut for the wealthiest Americans. But he will also ask for $180B in tax cuts for businesses and infrastructure spending.

Obama's opposition to extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy sets up a clash with Republicans on the issue, and makes the prospect of such legislation passing through Congress before the midterms less likely.

And Vice President Joe Biden will be on "The Colbert Report" tonight. Any bets on how many times Colbert exclaims, "Say it ain't so, Joe"? http://nyti.ms/c1oJyb

Polling Volatility: Just went it looked like Dems couldn't get a break, Gallup released a poll last night that found Dems tied with Republicans on the generic ballot. That's a 10-point swing from last week, which showed Republicans leading 51% to 41%. It is also the first time in a month Democrats have pulled even on Gallup's generic ballot best.

Keep in mind the Gallup poll is of registered voters, not likely voters -- and the intensity and enthusiasm is still squarely on the Republicans side. And the poll continued to show Republicans holding a commanding 25-point lead over Dems in terms of enthusiasm about voting this year.

Gallup also put out another poll Wednesday morning showing job approval for both parties in Congress is extremely low. Just 33% approve of the job Dems are doing, while 32% approve of Republicans performance. http://bit.ly/aYQNop, http://bit.ly/9EN4ji

Hanabusa: One bit of encouraging fundraising news for Dems: State senator Colleen Hanabusa (D), who is running against newly elected Rep Charles Djou (R-HI), outraised the incumbent in the pre-primary report period and nearly eliminated Djou's cash-on-hand advantage. Hanabusa raised $332K to Djou's $205K in July and August. She ended last month with $403K in the bank while Djou has $427K in his account.