The Five House Bellwethers
House Republicans are at the precipice of a historic election cycle this November if all indicators remain as troublesome as they currently are for Democrats. Combine President Obama's sagging approval ratings, a stagnant economy, the worsening state of the war in Afghanistan and an unusually high number of seats Democrats hold in Republican-friendly territory, and we're facing a "perfect storm" scenario where Republicans could win the 39 seats necessary to retake control -- with the prospects of even greater gains well within reach.
This week's Gallup tracking poll shows Republicans with a 10-point edge on the generic ballot, 51 percent to 41 percent -- the largest since it began tracking the question in 1942.
Democrats acknowledge the tough environment and the large number of races in play but believe that their financial advantage will make a critical difference in races where Republicans are running unproven, underfunded challengers. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee boasts a proven get-out-the-vote program in most of the targeted districts, which it argues can make the difference for incumbents facing tight races.
The national media's coverage of House races has largely focused on the most vulnerable Democrats, like Reps. Tom Perriello, D-Va., John Boccieri, D-Ohio, and Debbie Halvorson, D-Ill., for a sense of the national tide. Those members all have notable biographies, and in a normal election year they would be the ones most worth tracking to get a sense of the national mood. But in this tumultuous election environment (the Cook Political Report is tracking 120 races), we already know the national mood: Voters are fickle, angry at Washington and more eager to consider an alternative candidate than ever before. If Republicans make even moderate gains, as most analysts anticipate, the members at the top of the most vulnerable lists will likely all be gone.
So for a sense of whether the wave will be large enough to sweep in a Republican majority, it's much more useful to look at the bellwether races that aren't at the top of the target lists. Here are the five Democratic congressmen whose struggles on Election Night would indicate Republicans are in clear position to win a majority in the House:
Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Pa.: Murphy is one of the more unlikely Democrats to face the prospect of a hotly contested race. One of the crop of military veterans elected in the Democrats' majority-making class of 2006, Murphy looked like he would be in Congress for a long time. He has taken on a national profile as a Democratic spokesman calling for troop withdrawal from Iraq. He was confident enough of his own standing that he emerged as an outspoken advocate for Obama during the presidential primary, even though his own district voted decisively for Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Murphy's home base of Bucks County, once a Republican stronghold in the Philadelphia suburbs, had been trending in a Democratic direction. But the affluent region's traditional antipathy to high taxes and government spending is returning with a vengeance, and Republican Mike Fitzpatrick, the congressman Murphy defeated in 2006, has been hammering Murphy over his largely party-line votes on stimulus, health care and cap-and-trade, and accusing him of being more concerned about his personal standing than the district's needs.
A poll conducted by GOP pollster Neil Newhouse this month showed Fitzpatrick leading Murphy by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent, and showed Republicans with a 16-point generic ballot edge in the district -- alarming numbers for the incumbent. But this is also one of the few races where the underfunded National Republican Congressional Committee hasn't reserved ad time yet -- in a district where it costs millions to get a full-fledged message out. At the end of June, Murphy was sitting on over $1.8 million -- nearly three times more than Fitzpatrick's haul -- and he's poised to swarm the airwaves with ads.
If Murphy is in trouble early on Election Night, that's a surefire sign that the significant Democratic money advantage was overcome by the souring political environment.
Rep. Gerald Connolly, D-Va.: You wouldn't think that a Northern Virginia seat teeming with federal workers would turn aside a congressman who has held office during a time of government expansion. The D.C.-area economy has fared much better than most other regions during the recession, and Connolly's suburban district has steadily migrated into the Democratic column over the last decade. As a longtime Fairfax County board chairman, Connolly is well-known to most voters, and he handily defeated his Republican opponent, Keith Fimian, in 2008.
But Republican strategists view Virginia as a prime state to pick up seats, because there's no upballot gubernatorial or Senate race to drive turnout. That means only the most enthused voters will be showing up, and in this election the enthusiasm is squarely on the Republican side. And the last time Republicans rode a major wave in 1994, it swept another House freshman in this district (Leslie Byrne) out of office.
Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Ky.: Kentucky has always been a state to watch closely for Election Night trends since its polls close earliest in the country, at 6 p.m. EST. And the state features a tailor-made bellwether contest involving a popular incumbent running against a tough national tide.
Chandler's success steering federal funds to Kentucky as a member of the Appropriations Committee has held him in good stead in his Republican-leaning district. Since winning a special election in 2004, he's hardly broken a sweat despite running in a district that John McCain won by 12 points.
This year is shaping up to be different. Chandler voted for the cap-and-trade energy bill, a toxic position for any member representing parts of Appalachia. The NRCC is bullish on the race, and has already reserved time on Republican Andy Barr's behalf. And it's cheap to advertise in the district, ensuring that the GOP won't be at much of a financial disadvantage here.
Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn.: Much of Wall Street has turned on President Obama. The Center for Responsive Politics has found that as the financial regulatory bill was nearing passage in June, 68 percent of industry donations went to Republicans -- a stunning turnaround from two years ago, when 70 percent of Wall Street donations went to Democrats. And Himes' affluent Connecticut district is filled with bankers, hedge fund managers and traders once supportive of Obama who are now chafing at the administration's outspoken criticism of the industry.
Himes is running in a district that Obama carried comfortably with 60 percent of the vote in 2008. It would be a remarkable shift in two years for voters to oust the freshman out of dissatisfaction with the administration. And if voters take out their frustrations on Himes, it can't be an encouraging sign for other vulnerable Democrats in affluent suburban districts, areas that were major Obama strongholds two years ago.
Rep. Dan Maffei, D-N.Y.: If this weren't a wave election, Maffei would have little trouble winning a second term. His Syracuse-based district is fundamentally Democratic, voting for John Kerry in 2004 and giving Obama a 13-point margin of victory in 2008. He has the good fortune to be facing a Republican challenger in Ann Marie Buerkle whose anti-abortion activism positions her well to the right of the district's electorate. He is one of the Democrats' top fundraisers, holding nearly a tenfold cash-on-hand advantage.
But there are emerging warning signs for Maffei. He recently served as the press secretary for ethically embattled House Ways and Means Chairman Charles Rangel -- a connection that's tailor-made for a 30-second attack ad reminding voters of Maffei's longtime ties to Washington. A poll from GOP pollster Whit Ayres also showed him leading by only 3 points, 44 percent to 41 percent. And he's been on television early on with spots branding himself as an outsider, a sign that he recognizes he faces a challenging race.
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