The DCCC's Million Dollar Babies

In the battle over the airwaves, the DCCC is planning to invest $1M or more in at least a dozen districts that represent many of the toughest battlegrounds this fall, according to data leaked to The Hotline.

In total, the DCCC has reserved $49M worth of air time in 60 districts, according to the ad buy tracking data. The dozen districts where Democrats are spending at least $1M represent the DCCC's biggest outlays to date. And, in several more districts, the DCCC has reserved a significant amount of time in media markets that can be used to air ads for multiple districts.

Democrats are playing defense in the vast majority of these districts. The DCCC has reserved $1M or more of air time in just one district that represents a pick up opportunity. Many of the districts are traditional battlegrounds, while some -- like MO 04 where Rep. Ike Skelton is facing a challenge from ex-state Rep. Vicky Hartzler -- indicate the expanded playing field for the GOP.

Ad buys are fluid, they can change at a moment's notice. These buys only represent a snapshot in time, and the DCCC must account for several factors -- such as the size of the incumbent's war chest and the cost of the media markets in a district -- in its decisions. Nevertheless, ad buys provide insight into the DCCC's strategy at this point in the cycle.

"We reserve time early to lock in a lower rate," said Jennifer Crider, the DCCC's spokeswoman.

The committee is investing heavily in Rep. Carol Shea-Porter's race in NH 01, pouring $1.5M into the expensive Boston broadcast media market. Shea-Porter will face the winner of the GOP primary between Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, businessman Sean Mahoney and several others.

Similarly, Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) will get a big boost from the DCCC. The committee is planning to invest $1.4M on air in Titus' campaign against ex-state Sen. Joe Heck (R) in NV 03. The DCCC has reserved time starting 10/5 in this race. The NRCC has also placed one if its largest ad reservations in this district, as it plans to air $900K worth of ads over a longer period here.

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's (D) AZ 01 has quickly become a prime GOP pickup opportunity. Kirkpatrick, who faces dentist Paul Gosar (R), has seen the NRCC and conservative third party groups go on air in her district in the last week. Fortunately for her, the DCCC is planning to spend nearly $1.3M in the district starting 9/28, which is earlier than most of the DCCC's other ad buys. It is also a sign that Kirkpatrick is in trouble.

The DCCC also plans to invest $1.4M on air for Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in CA 11, another traditional battleground.

Other incumbents where the DCCC is planning $1M buys include: Bobby Bright in AL 02 ($1.2M), Harry Mitchell in AZ 05 ($1.2M), Baron Hill in IN 09 ($1.1M), Skelton ($1.2M), Larry Kissell in NC 08 ($1.3M), Earl Pomeroy in ND AL ($1.2M), Kathy Dahlkemper in PA 03 ($1.2M).

The DCCC is going on offense with a large buy in FL 25 -- a pick up opportunity. '08 nominee Joe Garcia (D) is facing off against state Rep. David Rivera (R) for the seat held by retiring Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R). Rivera has been embroiled in more than one scandal so far this year, and the DCCC's planned investment of nearly $1.8M of air time shows it thinks it can take this seat.

The DCCC is also planning to spend big on an open seat in AR 01. Chad Causey (D) faces Rick Crawford for retiring Rep. Marion Berry's seat there and the DCCC has reserved $1.1M worth of air time.

The DCCC may be aiming for the IL 10 seat being vacated by Rep. Mark Kirk (R), though the committee's buys in a single ad market that covers several districts make their strategy hard to divine. The DCCC has reserved $1.1M in the Chicago market, which includes Kirk's seat and those held by Reps. Debbie Halvorson (D) and Bill Foster (D).

The DCCC has similarly invested chunks of money in Ohio. The DCCC has reserved $736K in the Columbus market, which is low considering it contains OH 15, the hotly contested race between Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) and Steve Stivers (R). That money can also be used to air ads against Rep. Pat Tiberi (R) in OH 12 on Paula Brooks' behalf, or for Rep. Zack Space in OH 18.

Including the Columbus market, the DCCC has invested $1.9M total in the four markets that compose Space's district. That money can be split between OH 12, 15, Rep. Betty Sutton's (D) OH 13, Rep. John Boccieri's (D) OH 16 and even Rep. Nick Rahall's (D) WV 03.

The DCCC's ad reservations are surprisingly light in some districts, a likely sign of where Dems are already in trouble. DCCC spokeswoman Crider told The Hotline the party is not giving up on key members, and that ad buys remain fluid.

That doesn't mean some members shouldn't take note of low purchases in their districts. In OH 01, where Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) is fighting off ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (R), the DCCC has only reserved $553K worth of air time. In MD 01, the DCCC has only planned $174K worth of ads on behalf of first term Rep. Frank Kratovil (D). The NRCC is outspending the DCCC there, reserving $523K worth of time.

Similarly, the NRCC is also outspending the DCCC at this point in Rep. Travis Childer's MS 01. The DCCC has reserved $532K there, while the NRCC has reserved $616K. In Rep. Tom Perriello's VA 05, the DCCC has reserved only $312K while the NRCC is planning $661K worth of air time for state Sen. Robert Hurt (R).