House Republicans are at the precipice of a historic election cycle this November if all indicators remain as troublesome as they currently are for Democrats. Combine President Obama's sagging approval ratings, a stagnant economy, the worsening state of the war in Afghanistan and an unusually high number of seats Democrats hold in Republican-friendly territory, and we're facing a "perfect storm" scenario where Republicans could win the 39 seats necessary to retake control -- with the prospects of even greater gains well within reach.
This week's Gallup tracking poll shows Republicans with a 10-point edge on the generic ballot, 51 percent to 41 percent -- the largest since it began tracking the question in 1942.
Democrats acknowledge the tough environment and the large number of races in play but believe that their financial advantage will make a critical difference in races where Republicans are running unproven, underfunded challengers. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee boasts a proven get-out-the-vote program in most of the targeted districts, which it argues can make the difference for incumbents facing tight races.
The national media's coverage of House races has largely focused on the most vulnerable Democrats, like Reps. Tom Perriello, D-Va., John Boccieri, D-Ohio, and Debbie Halvorson, D-Ill., for a sense of the national tide. Those members all have notable biographies, and in a normal election year they would be the ones most worth tracking to get a sense of the national mood. But in this tumultuous election environment (the Cook Political Report is tracking 120 races), we already know the national mood: Voters are fickle, angry at Washington and more eager to consider an alternative candidate than ever before. If Republicans make even moderate gains, as most analysts anticipate, the members at the top of the most vulnerable lists will likely all be gone.
So for a sense of whether the wave will be large enough to sweep in a Republican majority, it's much more useful to look at the bellwether races that aren't at the top of the target lists. Here are the five Democratic congressmen whose struggles on Election Night would indicate Republicans are in clear position to win a majority in the House:
Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Pa.: Murphy is one of the more unlikely Democrats to face the prospect of a hotly contested race. One of the crop of military veterans elected in the Democrats' majority-making class of 2006, Murphy looked like he would be in Congress for a long time. He has taken on a national profile as a Democratic spokesman calling for troop withdrawal from Iraq. He was confident enough of his own standing that he emerged as an outspoken advocate for Obama during the presidential primary, even though his own district voted decisively for Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Murphy's home base of Bucks County, once a Republican stronghold in the Philadelphia suburbs, had been trending in a Democratic direction. But the affluent region's traditional antipathy to high taxes and government spending is returning with a vengeance, and Republican Mike Fitzpatrick, the congressman Murphy defeated in 2006, has been hammering Murphy over his largely party-line votes on stimulus, health care and cap-and-trade, and accusing him of being more concerned about his personal standing than the district's needs.
A poll conducted by GOP pollster Neil Newhouse this month showed Fitzpatrick leading Murphy by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent, and showed Republicans with a 16-point generic ballot edge in the district -- alarming numbers for the incumbent. But this is also one of the few races where the underfunded National Republican Congressional Committee hasn't reserved ad time yet -- in a district where it costs millions to get a full-fledged message out. At the end of June, Murphy was sitting on over $1.8 million -- nearly three times more than Fitzpatrick's haul -- and he's poised to swarm the airwaves with ads.
If Murphy is in trouble early on Election Night, that's a surefire sign that the significant Democratic money advantage was overcome by the souring political environment.
Rep. Gerald Connolly, D-Va.: You wouldn't think that a Northern Virginia seat teeming with federal workers would turn aside a congressman who has held office during a time of government expansion. The D.C.-area economy has fared much better than most other regions during the recession, and Connolly's suburban district has steadily migrated into the Democratic column over the last decade. As a longtime Fairfax County board chairman, Connolly is well-known to most voters, and he handily defeated his Republican opponent, Keith Fimian, in 2008.
But Republican strategists view Virginia as a prime state to pick up seats, because there's no upballot gubernatorial or Senate race to drive turnout. That means only the most enthused voters will be showing up, and in this election the enthusiasm is squarely on the Republican side. And the last time Republicans rode a major wave in 1994, it swept another House freshman in this district (Leslie Byrne) out of office.
Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Ky.: Kentucky has always been a state to watch closely for Election Night trends since its polls close earliest in the country, at 6 p.m. EST. And the state features a tailor-made bellwether contest involving a popular incumbent running against a tough national tide.
Chandler's success steering federal funds to Kentucky as a member of the Appropriations Committee has held him in good stead in his Republican-leaning district. Since winning a special election in 2004, he's hardly broken a sweat despite running in a district that John McCain won by 12 points.
This year is shaping up to be different. Chandler voted for the cap-and-trade energy bill, a toxic position for any member representing parts of Appalachia. The NRCC is bullish on the race, and has already reserved time on Republican Andy Barr's behalf. And it's cheap to advertise in the district, ensuring that the GOP won't be at much of a financial disadvantage here.
Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn.: Much of Wall Street has turned on President Obama. The Center for Responsive Politics has found that as the financial regulatory bill was nearing passage in June, 68 percent of industry donations went to Republicans -- a stunning turnaround from two years ago, when 70 percent of Wall Street donations went to Democrats. And Himes' affluent Connecticut district is filled with bankers, hedge fund managers and traders once supportive of Obama who are now chafing at the administration's outspoken criticism of the industry.
Himes is running in a district that Obama carried comfortably with 60 percent of the vote in 2008. It would be a remarkable shift in two years for voters to oust the freshman out of dissatisfaction with the administration. And if voters take out their frustrations on Himes, it can't be an encouraging sign for other vulnerable Democrats in affluent suburban districts, areas that were major Obama strongholds two years ago.
Rep. Dan Maffei, D-N.Y.: If this weren't a wave election, Maffei would have little trouble winning a second term. His Syracuse-based district is fundamentally Democratic, voting for John Kerry in 2004 and giving Obama a 13-point margin of victory in 2008. He has the good fortune to be facing a Republican challenger in Ann Marie Buerkle whose anti-abortion activism positions her well to the right of the district's electorate. He is one of the Democrats' top fundraisers, holding nearly a tenfold cash-on-hand advantage.
But there are emerging warning signs for Maffei. He recently served as the press secretary for ethically embattled House Ways and Means Chairman Charles Rangel -- a connection that's tailor-made for a 30-second attack ad reminding voters of Maffei's longtime ties to Washington. A poll from GOP pollster Whit Ayres also showed him leading by only 3 points, 44 percent to 41 percent. And he's been on television early on with spots branding himself as an outsider, a sign that he recognizes he faces a challenging race.
I live in Bucks and have not seen anti-democrat feelings so strong in years. Oh what two years can do. Murphy will be in deep trouble in November. It's not just Republicans "fired up", its a lot of independents in the area! Money can get you so far-we all know he lied when he said he was a blue dog, and all the TV airtime won't change the fact the voted with Nancy Pelosi 98 % of the time!
As for Himes, yes, some top people in the financial industry have "turned" on Obama, but the younger rank and file are still supportive as they've been trending Democratic for years. Himes' district is not just hedge fund managers - its affluent couples with younger children who are middle people in the financial industry (which means they're rich, just not mega-rich).
Himes also benefits from the fact that his opponent is among the most partisan members of the state legislature, and in CT's 4th voters have always looked for moderates. Himes is certainly the more moderate candidate. Nothing helps you in a tough year like having a weak opponent who has supported some extreme legislation.
LOl, Iliveinbucks nails what I was going to say! This is what people are saying here, and even on a blog comment, I see the same feeling as me and many of my friends. I'll tell you that Murphy's vote of Cap&Trade cost him here in the 8th. You can't be a blue dog (iliveinbucks-you nailed it that he lied saying he was a "bluedog")and vote for cap&trade. Also, Murphy hid from his district and held no townhalls on healthcare unlike most other members of congress.
Himes probably won;t lose his seat(CT-4) I mean Connecticut has gone so Democratic over the past 7 years. The Cook Report rates CT-4 as "Solid D" or "Likely D" I believe. Connecticut despite being a heavily Democratic State does vote alot of Republican Governors into office though.
Halverson and Bocceiri are in trouble though. Maffei maybe in trouble too.
The GOP is highly targeting PA-8(Patrick Murphy's seat) and the "Cook Report" rates PA-8 as "Toss Up" I believe.
Unfortunately, the author overshot the mark on this. True, these are not among the most likely Dems to fall. In fact, most of these seats (i.e., Chandler, Himes, Maffei) are the difference between Republicans winning the majority and a 1994-style wave election where they actually come out the other side with a nice cushion of 12-15 seats. The Republicans could lose all these seats and still be in a position to likely take back the house. RealClear has these seats as likely Dem seats. However, all Reps. have to do is win 1/3 of RealClar's toss-ups in order to take it back. And of the races rated as toss-ups (Murphy and Connolly), they 2 above-listed ones are among the least likely toss-ups to flip. Thus the best case scenario for dems is they hold all 5 of the seats listed above but still lose the house by half a dozen seats. These seats are "bellweathers" for a historic 50-60 seat wave, and nothing less.
Wrong picks. If these seats go, it is GOP +65. The real bellweathers are IN-08, IN-09, IA-3, whichever district is occupied by Kilroy in Ohio. GOP likely will gain 45-50 seats in the House with a 50-55 a possibility. NY, CT and MN are likely to be three bright spots for Dems at the state level and perhaps at the national level.
I just wanna say nice info and thank you
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I agree - there is no way the 4th District will buy Debicella's lies. He is trying to sell himself as a moderate, but once people learn more about Debicella's time in the State Senate they will soon see that he is too radical for the moderate 4th District.
I am very positively impressed with the quality and civility of the comments. I am retired and spend my time taking care of family and reading everything on the internet, especially RealClearPolitics. HotLine OnCall has some very nice readers.
I agree with John & George - except maybe PA-08, all of these seats are way past the "outer edge" of what the GOP needs to take back the House - they're like PA-12: winning most of these probably means GOP is at +50-60.
In fact, KY-06 is one of the seats I'll be tracking early on election night: if the GOP wins KY-06 (along with the three IN seats), they're going over +50. And if they wins back KY-03 as well as KY-06, the GOP is going +60 or higher.
The true "bellweather" is probably IN-02: that's the seat I'm looking at most closely early on election night...
I live in the VA 11th and I cannot wait to get rid of Connolly. His votes in the House fit perfectly with his record on the County Board, which he left two years ago with a half-billion dollar deficit. But what I find really ironic is Democrats "believe that their financial advantage will make a critical difference." These are the people who have been saying for decades we need to get money out of politics. Connolly had a $1.5 million advantage in June, yet he trails in some polls. Even more ironic, Sen. Russ Feingold, co-author of the last attempt to restrict political speech and spending, is himself in trouble this year. We have a credible, talented, small business experienced candidate in Keith Fimian, who is just the needed antidote to the current corruption in Congress, and who will be good for us and for the entire country.
don't underestimate the voter anger in some of these districts - especially CT. I can def see some upsets here.
In VA-11, we have the choice of a man, Keith Fimian, who started his business in the room above his garage or a career politician. Fimian's company is now a nation-wide business. I'll take his experience any day over a career politician who votes with Nancy Pelosi 98% of the time. I want someone with real-life experience, and that man is Keith Fimian.
Josh Kraushaar's comments are timely and very interesting. Here in the VA-11th, we are being bombarded by literature from Connolly trying to convince us he's a deficit hawk -- and this, after his votes to support the health care bill and most of what his party wanted. He claimed to be "undecided" on the health care vote right up to the day of the vote -- not wanting to face the ire of his constituents. Keith Fimian is a solid, accomplished businessman with fiscally responsible approaches to government. His record is clear -- and so is Connolly's,the big- spending, longtime politician. There is a growing upswell in the 11th to send Connolly home and give the seat to Fimian.
Wrong on PA-08. Fitzpatrick (or FitzFlop like us true conservatives like to say) is just a pathetic part of a broken and corrupts Bucks GOP led by a guy (Fawkes) who has been the Chairman of the local party for over 3 decades. You want a story ... explore the pay-for-play with the Bucks GOP, including no-bid bond purchases from local Republican controlled municipalities to a bond company owned by the Vice Chair of the Bucks GOP who uses FitzFlop's law firm for the legal work.
When FitzFlop was in Congress, he co-sponsored Cap and Trade and Card Check, was a big earmark guy, and voted against sanctuary cities. After getting voted out of office, he is now against all these issues ... pretty inspiring.
Unfortunately, we conservatives in Bucks are stuck with the Bucks GOP's golden RINO who has no redeeming qualities other than not being Patrick Murphy.
With no support from independents or moderate Dems, FitzFlop loses by 3-5 percentage points.
Murphy holds regular "Congress on Your Corner" events where his constituents can ask him about issues, including health care. He's also held both in person and telephone townhalls focusing on health care.
Regarding PA-8:
Murphy has been hiding, holding no Town Hall events; the other individualized approaches are intended solely to shroud him from direct interaction with non-vetted voters.
Fitzpatrick is not tainted by whatever perceptions are held by critics of the Bucks-GOP, despite yeoman efforts during this past spring to attempt to conjure the appearance of a linkage.
Fitzpatrick also has indeed sharpened his views on the major Conservative-Republican issues, and all are in sharp-contrast with those of Murphy.
Although linkage to Obama's domestic-/foreign-policy failures anchors an albatross around the necks of all loyal Democrats (including Murphy, who has voted lock-step with Pelosi), the pivotal concern remains Jobs/Jobs/Jobs...and today's MSNBC "Morning Joe" installment confirmed the operational-bankruptcy being experienced by the increasingly-unpopular Democrats (nationally) in this realm.
"Blame Bush" is "old"...whereas "Oppose Obama" is gaining currency!
I also live in the VA-11 district. In the last year, I have heard almost nothing good said about Connoly from my friends and neighbors. I think that he's toast in this district. I for one can't wait to vote for Fimian and some responsible voices in Washington. I contacted Connoly's office after his health care vote and, of course, received absolutely no reply. No town halls... no communication(except flyer after flyer to tell how great he is).... no vote for him!
Gerry Connolly has proven himself to be Nancy Pelosi's representative, not the representative of the people of the 11th district. He has not listened to his contituents regarding cap and trade, health care or so-called stimulus bill. Many of tried over numerous visits to talk with him about the issues. Mr Connolly couldn't be bothered.
His town hall meeting last summer was by invitation only behind security gates.
His mailings from the office, at taxpayer expense, are full of bogus assertions about how fiscally conservative he is. After his record of voting for major spending, job killing and freedom destroying bills he really has some nerve.
Gerry Connolly and all of his Democrat cohorts need to be voted out of office this November. They are all accountable for the unemployment and disastrous economy.
PA-08 is not bellweather. FitzFlop is a former incumbent and RINO with little appeal to tea partiers or independents. This race is not reflective of what is going on nationwide. GOP wins the House by a large margin but Fitzplop loses.
VA-11 is teeming with federal workers, yes– and you would be astonished if you knew how many of them want Gerald Connolly out. He has been a disappointment from the outset. His lockstep voting with Pelosi against the will of an overwhelming majority of the American people; his unchecked propensity for tax and spend; his failure to address constituents concerns; and his downright rude behavior to constituents of different ideology make Connolly a walking target for de-election. We want someone who has actually held a job in and has made good decisions in the private sector. We are going to elect Keith Fimian in November.
Fimian strikes me as the kind of leader we need right now. He promises no new taxes, eliminate earmarks, and can be part of a team in Congress to bring confidence back to the markets. Business is stagnant right now and jobs are tight. We need folks in Congress who know how to jump start the economy.
Agree with comments about Fitzpatrick being a dud in PA's 8th Congressional race. At a time when some local Republican candidates offer a breath of fresh air, we get the same old stink from the local Bucks Republican Party - still can't believe they are running a career politician who already lost to Murphy during his one unmemorable term in Congress.
Let me put in a word for WA3, held by Dem. Baird, who decided not to run for re-election after a constituant lambasting at an Obamacare town hall meeting. This seat is now an almost certain GOP pickup, with GOP primary candidates receiving 54% of the vote and Jaime Herrera almost certainly the new Rep. for that district.
Be Heard
Across the country and in Fairfield County, most Americans opposed the healthcare bill. But Jim Himes didn’t hear us and voted yes.
The stimulus? Most of us didn’t want it. Himes didn’t listen. He voted yes.
Cap and trade? In Connecticut, most voters said no. In Washington, Jim Himes voted yes.
End the secret ballot in union elections? Again, his constituents said no. Jim Himes yes.
Raising taxes? Most of the citizenry say no. Himes yes.
If Jim Himes does not listen to you, then you should know that you are not alone. By a wide margin, voters across the country and in Fairfield County oppose the Nancy Pelosi and Jim Himes’ position on the issues. If you want to send Jim Himes a message that he can hear, you can support his opponent, Dan Debicella, here: https://debicella.blue-swarm.com/donate.
Jim Himes can’t hear us. On November 2nd, let’s turn up the volume.
I personally see about 55-65 seats going GOP. Some of the biggest surprises might be in former democrat strongholds. Betty Sutton, a labor union suckup, is running dead even in OH13 with notable statewide car dealer Tom Ganley-she won by 15 pts 2 yrs ago. John Boccieri is toast in Ohio 16. Zack Space is falling behind in Ohio 18(Ted Stricklands old district) Mary Jo Kilroy looks likely to lose her SW Ohio dustrict. Thats at least 4 if they all fall(at least 2 are very likely). And the demorats deserve to get routed,they put political ideology and PC ahead of the will of the voters who elected them.
rifleman,
Don't 4get about Driehaus in OH01. He's toast. Also, the 18th is Bob Ney's old dist.; I think Strickland rep'd the 6th (which may go Republican as well if this becomes a "wave" election).
I am a registered democrat and will not vote for Maffei because of his support of the unconstitutional Health care plan he voted for knowing that his area was against. it. He doesn't represent our views, he is just an Obama soldier in the redistribution of wealth in the country. However he has no problem spending most of his time raising money.
Maffei's district is not particularly Democrat-leaning, and prior to two years ago it was a relatively safe GOP district, before the 2008 "wave" election. Ann Marie Buerkle is, no question, a conservative, and probably to the right of the electorate. That said, Maffei is equally left of the electorate, having reliably supported the Pelosi agenda (save a few motions to adjourn, which oughtn't count in the percentages). Maffei has 10 times the cash as Buerkle. Hmmm...I wonder why. Because, as you say, he's a long-time Washington insider. The election is going to be close, but this is one where the independents are going to swing hard right. Maffei will lose.