Wave Of Third-Party Ads Adding to Dems' Woes

Democrats were once hopeful that Senate Republican retirements would help them retain the majority this year, as the open seats created pick up opportunities in Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky and New Hampshire.

But with late Democratic retirements in Connecticut, North Dakota and Indiana, tough holds in Illinois and West Virginia, and an unexpected primary loss in Pennsylvania, open seats have become a significant problem for Democrats. That problem is only exacerbated by the severe lack of funding Democratic Senate candidates face in open seat races, coupled with the invasion of third party groups largely partial to Republicans.

Democrats recruited well in the close open seat races, and in a normal year, their candidates would be running far stronger. But the bad Democratic environment isn't the only reason Democrats have lost the edge. The Supreme Court's Citizens United decision, plus some funding drying up for the usual Democratic spenders, have left the third-party action almost entirely to the GOP. The DSCC is carrying most of the water in all of these races, while labor unions are chipping in only slightly. If Democratic candidates don't get additional outside help soon, they risk being drowned out in October, and then Democrats can kiss their hopes of a surprise pickup goodbye.

It's just not pick-ups that are the problem. In Illinois, Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) has been attacked on TV with more than $1M worth of ads from the Chamber of Commerce, American Crossroads and the Committee for Truth in Politics. In addition, his opponent Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) had more than $2.8M more in the bank at the end of the 2nd quarter, and the NRSC has not yet begun to spend the $3.4M they pledged to the Kirk campaign.

Despite the disparity, the race is neck-and-neck, and Democrats are hopeful that Giannoulias can eke out a win due to Illinois' Democratic voter registration edge and Kirk's missteps. But Kirk, the NRSC and the aforementioned third party groups will only ramp up their spending in October, and it's doubtful whether Giannoulias and the DSCC (which has spent about $500K on the race thus far) can keep pace with GOP spending.

Democrats were hopeful about switching a seat in Ohio after Sen. George Voinovich's (R) retirement. Former OMB director Rob Portman (R) seemed to be too closely tied with the Bush administration's fiscal policies, and LG Lee Fisher (D) had run successfully statewide before. But Portman proved to be a blockbuster fundraiser, and had a $6.2M edge over Fisher at the end of the 2nd quarter. The Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads have aired more than $1M worth of ads touting Portman and attacking Fisher, and the Democrat has very little money to spare to respond. Fisher has proven to be a lackluster candidate, and his campaign has not succeeded in tying Portman to the Bush name.

It's the same story in Kentucky, where AG Jack Conway (D) is getting hammered on television by the Club for Growth, Chamber of Commerce, American Crossroads and NRSC. Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) had less money than Conway did at the end of the 2nd quarter, but it's likely that edge has been erased and reversed as Conway has had to respond to outside advertising without much help. Paul has only released one TV ad since the primary ended, a positive spot that leaves the attacking to the others. MoveOn.org has gone up with a small buy boosting Conway, and the DSCC plans on spending $1.6M on the race. That money is probably not enough to launch the negative campaign needed to defeat Paul though.

Missouri Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D) is getting a big boost from outside groups in her race against Rep. Roy Blunt (R), with the League of Conservation Voters, Commonsense Ten and the DSCC on the air with over $1.5M in ads attacking Blunt. But Blunt's allies have responded right back, with American Crossroads and the Chamber of Commerce spending over $1.6M just in the last month. Carnahan's still in the race, but the DSCC and her campaign will have to spend quite a bit of money on negative ads in October to counterbalance Blunt and his allies.

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is also getting a lot of help from the DSCC, which has spent $2.9M on his bid so far. But his opponent Pat Toomey (R), who once ran the prominent outside group Club for Growth, might be the king of the third party sweepstakes, with American Crossroads, Chamber of Commerce, Americans for Job Security and, of course, the Club for Growth swooping into Pennsylvania. In New Hampshire, Rep. Paul Hodes (D) has gotten battered by ads from American Crossroads, Chamber of Commerce, and American Action Network. Those hits seemed to prevent the divisive GOP primary from helping Hodes' chances, and former AG Kelly Ayotte (R) is well-positioned to take the seat.

Democrats are even getting hammered by advertising in states where outside groups haven't been much of a factor. In Connecticut's Senate race, no third-party group has gotten involved, most likely because of former WWE CEO Linda McMahon's (R) self-funding and AG Dick Blumenthal's (D) steady, if decreasing lead. On the other hand, in Florida Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) hasn't gotten hit by an outside ad, mostly because they're all aiming at Gov. Charlie Crist (I). But it hasn't helped his fundraising or standing in the polls. And West Virginia Senate seems to have just become more of a race, with the NRSC investing $1.2M in the race to hit Gov. Joe Manchin (D).

In October, look for outside spending to increase in barely competitive seats like West Virginia and Delaware, where third-party groups who have money to burn may want all the credit for a surprise win.