What Ohio Tells Us About Obama
CLEVELAND -- There's no shortage of political tumult in the Buckeye State this year, where the Democratic-held governorship and at least six Democratic-held House seats are in jeopardy. But what makes it particularly notable is that the state represents several key demographic groups whose changing perspectives will give serious insight into President Obama's broader political standing for 2012.
The voters Obama is losing -- white-collar managers in Columbus, blue-collar union workers in Youngstown, pro-life independents around Cincinnati -- are exactly the types he needs to win re-election in 2012, and they're backing away from his party in droves. Obama tallied a whopping 60 percent disapproval rating in Quinnipiac's latest Ohio poll, with nearly two-thirds of voters disapproving of his economic performance.
That dissatisfaction extends across the board to Democrats on the statewide ballot. The Quinnipiac poll showed Gov. Ted Strickland down 17 points to Republican John Kasich and Republican Rob Portman leading Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by 20 points in the Senate race. A separate CNN/Time poll was striking in that the two statewide Democrats were badly underperforming in nearly every part of the state, among almost every key demographic.
Working-class Democrats are abandoning the party to support Republicans with both Wall Street and Washington ties. The business-friendly base around Columbus, which swung towards Obama in 2008, now gives both Portman and Kasich substantial leads. A sizable share (42 percent) of Kasich backers in the Quinnipiac poll said they were casting their vote specifically against Strickland, who was once one of the most popular chief executives in the country.
The gloomy numbers for Ohio Democrats are all the more telling, given that the two Republicans on the statewide ballot are near-perfect punching bags for the White House's signature message -- that Republicans are beholden to the wealthiest few, Wall Street and big business. Kasich worked for Lehman Brothers as an investment banker during his time in the political wilderness, before the company went bankrupt. Portman stood side-by-side with former President Bush heading the Office of Management and Budget, and is an advocate for free-market and free-trade principles that are often received warily by the Buckeye State's blue-collar electorate.
Yet they're both leading by eye-popping margins, and Democrats are already privately discussing the possibility of moving money out of Ohio into other, more winnable, states. In a sign that the populist attacks focused on Kasich's past haven't had much of an impact, Strickland abandoned his own Wall Street attacks on Kasich in favor of a more positive message touting his economic record in Ohio -- a tough sell in a state with a 10.1 percent unemployment rate, ninth-highest in the country.
Meanwhile, Ohio's House race landscape shows how widespread the Democratic problems are, with members representing diverse constituencies in all parts of the state in deep trouble. Much of their vulnerability can be tied to the state's overall poor economy, but they're also dealing with voting records that are out of line with their constituents' views.
In a Columbus district filled with banks and insurance companies, freshman Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy's party-line voting record on financial regulatory reform and health care has proved a tough sell, and she's rated as one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the country. Abortion rights opponents in Cincinnati, many of whom voted Democratic in 2008, are upset with Rep. Steve Driehaus for voting in favor of a health care bill without tough anti-abortion provisions in it.
Reps. Zack Space and John Boccieri voted for the cap-and-trade legislation even though they represent manufacturing-heavy northeastern Ohio districts where environmental restrictions on the cost of energy production are unpopular.
And a Democratic strategist involved in Ohio races said they've seen polling and focus groups that show a surprisingly large number of blue-collar workers in Akron upset over Rep. Betty Sutton's authorship of "Cash for Clunkers," even though many took advantage of the program to buy cheaper new cars. (Obama carried 57 percent of the vote in her district in 2008.)
"It's the old Reagan Democratic coalition coming back at us with a vengeance," the strategist said.
The numbers have gotten so ominous in the state that even third-tier targets like Reps. Charlie Wilson and Marcy Kaptur can't take their re-elections for granted.
The developments across the ballot in Ohio suggest it's not just the sputtering economy, but also the specific policies the administration has advanced, that have caused the Democratic brand to fall so flat, so fast. Obama's been to Ohio 10 times since he was elected president -- second-most of any state -- yet his salesmanship on the economy and health care haven't made a dent in his party's numbers.
There's plenty of time until 2012, but Obama's standing in the Buckeye State has to be troubling for the president's strategists looking ahead to his re-election. There's a reason Ohio is a perennial bellwether state -- it features most of the core demographic groups that a Democrat needs to win over in order to take the White House.
With Obama getting pounded from Akron to Zanesville to Columbus to Cincinnati, it's a clear warning sign for the future. Things can change dramatically in two years. But if the White House believe that it's just style -- that it's the administration's messaging, and not the underlying policies -- causing the Democrats' sinking numbers, it should take a look at the fate of Obama's allies in Ohio who stood by him and are now bearing the brunt of those ties.
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