What We Learned: Stateside Edition
More lessons we took away from this week in politics:
-- Sometimes, the debate over debates is more interesting than the actual debate itself. Take the TX GOV race: This week, Gov. Rick Perry (R) gave ex-Houston Mayor Bill White (D) a deadline to release additional taxes, saying he will not debate White unless he complies. If either candidate flinches in this drawn out game of political chicken, it would represent a big victory for the other side. Also, if White appears solo at an already scheduled debate in late October, the event could end up being one of his final opportunities to influence the race's outcome.
-- The only candidate capable of defeating AZ Gov. Jan Brewer (R) at present is Brewer herself. After video of her awkward opening at a debate with AG Terry Goddard (D) this week spread quickly, it looks like Brewer's decision not to participate in any more debates is the best option for her. Brewer has a big lead in the polls and has there is no incentive for her to participate in further meetings and risk giving Goddard more openings. Though expect the Goddard campaign to continue to call Brewer out for her decision and remind voters of her performance at this week's debate.
-- Embattled businessman Dan Maes (R) could lead the CO GOP ticket down a similar path suffered by down-ballot Virginia Dems in 2009. The more state party leaders ask Maes to abandon his bid for governor, the more resistance he puts up, especially with ex-GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo vowing to stay in the race too as a third-party candidate. It's gotten to the point where both grassroots groups and GOP SEN nominee Ken Buck are concerned about the impact Maes's malaise will have on the prime-for-pickup SEN race.
-- Smart party strategists on both sides make the case that GOV races drive turnout more than SEN races. But don't expect Maes' campaign to hurt the rest of the GOP ticket. Tancredo's presence in the race will draw out conservatives, while the high-profile race between Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) is attracting so much money that ad prices for Oct. are rising already.
-- Neither CA SEN candidate should count on a misstep from her opponent. Boxer is frequently praised as an exceptional campaigner, and the post-primary hair slipup aside, ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) seems equally good at staying relentlessly on message: the debate this week proved contentious but remarkably gaffe-free. Still, as one GOP strategist remarked to us, Fiorina is beginning to come across as awfully conservative for blue CA.
-- Take what you know about politics (Like that Orange Co., CA, is a bastion of conservatism) and throw it out the window. Only 43% of Orange Co's registered voters identified themselves as GOPers, and whites comprised only 45% of the population as the upper middle class erodes and working-class immigrants grow. The GOP has carried the county since '36, but Dems have made progress in the last 30 years. Pres. Obama nearly won the county in '08, taking 48% of the vote.
-- Gov. Charlie Crist is making a serious bid to become the SEN Dem standard-bearer in practice if not in name, trying to marginalize Rep. Kendrick Meek at every turn by playing the electability card. Unfortunately, this means that Crist is twisting himself in knots trying to reconcile his past record with his tact to the center. Meanwhile, businessman Lawton "Bud" Chiles actually ended his 3rd party bid for GOV, concerned he might throw the election to GOPers. Dissatisfaction with both parties is evident, but 3rd-party candidacies are still a dicey proposition. Crist is only managing to stay in the race because of his name recognition and because he's aiming straight at Meek's base of supporters. It's not something that could be repeated in many other states.