October 2010

Can Sarah Palin save House Democrats? Many of the party's endangered incumbents are spending their final days campaigning as much against the former Alaska governor as against their Republican rivals.

No one in American politics engenders stronger feelings than Palin, the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee. Republicans love her, but Democrats and independents view her unfavorably with equal intensity.

The numbers bear out those sentiments. The latest Bloomberg survey, conducted by Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., shows just 38 percent of Americans view her favorably, while 54 percent see her unfavorably. A Gallup poll conducted October 14 to 17 shows almost twice as many voters say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate for whom Palin campaigns as those who say they would be more likely to vote for that candidate, a nearly identical figure to Pres. Obama's. And 56 percent of Americans told Langer Research Associates, in a poll for ABC News and Yahoo!, they view Palin as more interested in division than cooperation; only 34 percent chose cooperation.

"Most of the surveys we've seen indicate that independent voters do not want to go way off into Sarah Palin land," Rep. Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told Hotline On Call. "They're looking for problem-solvers, not right-wing ideologues."

The incumbents Van Hollen must protect are trying to associate their Republican rivals with the former governor. Palin has endorsed 56 candidates across the country, stretching from her home state of Alaska to Florida and New Hampshire. Her political action committee has given to several more, according to reports filed with the FEC.

In Ohio, Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) has used one of those donations to paint her opponent, state Sen. Steve Stivers (R), as a Palin "protégé." Palin's donation "shows whose side he is truly on and it is not the side of Ohio families," Kilroy spokesman Brad Bauman said in a statement.

Think you've got a handle on what's going to happen Tuesday? Democratic polling firm Anzalone Liszt wants you to prove it.

The Alabama-based group is running an internet pool, along with D.C.-based Stratalys, giving participants the chance to pick winners in 18 Senate races, 23 House races and 27 governorships.

More inspiration: First prize is $1,000.

Did the Washington Post forget to include you in their 15th biennial Outlook Crystal Ball Contest? Click here to join Anzalone Liszt's pool and prove you're smarter than the pollsters.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) remains ahead of her two rivals in her write-in Senate campaign in Alaska, according to a new poll released today by an in-state Republican pollster.

The poll, conducted by Dittman Research & Communications, shows Murkowski leading attorney Joe Miller (R), 37 percent to 27 percent, with the Democrat, Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, in third place with 23 percent. Thirteen percent chose other candidates or were undecided.

Replicating the write-in process in a phone survey can be difficult, but the technique used by pollster Dave Dittman is unique to most public polls of the race. Respondents are first asked an open-ended question about their vote preference, and their choice of candidate is recorded. If the respondent is unable to make a choice, he or she is read the names of the candidates on the ballot, with the option of a write-in candidate. In order to choose Murkowski, the respondent must choose the write-in option and provide her name.

According to Dittman's polls of the race over the past two months, Murkowski's support has remained quite steady in the mid- to upper-30s. Miller began the general campaign, just days after upsetting Murkowski in the GOP primary, at 32%, but his support this month has fluctuated in the mid- to upper-20s as his negatives have risen. McAdams, meanwhile, has been unable to capture more than 25 percent in any poll Dittman has conducted.

While Murkowski's report remains steady, Dittman does not expect that her status as a write-in candidate whose name doesn't appear on the ballot will significantly affect her support on Tuesday. Dittman noted that, since all voters in Alaska vote with a pen and paper, writing in a candidate's name won't be that big of a problem.

"It's not that much more difficult to write in the name," Dittman said. "It's not the obstacle it's perceived to be."

The poll comes on the heels of two other in-state polls this week that also showed Murkowski ahead, though one poll -- a Hays Research poll conducted for a local union that has endorsed McAdams -- actually showed the Democrat moving into second place.

Dittman has conducted surveys for both Murkowski and Miller in the past, but he said this poll was not commissioned by any candidate or outside group. The current poll surveyed 421 "highly motivated voters" between Oct. 23-28, for a margin of error of +/- 4.8%.

The Cook Political Report made ratings changes in eight gubernatorial races. Here is a breakdown.

Toward The GOP:

Texas Governor -- Toss Up to Lean R: GOP Gov. Rick Perry has successfully turned back a very competitive challenge from former Houston Mayor Bill White.

Georgia Governor -- Toss Up to Lean R: Despite carrying some heavy ethical baggage, former GOP Rep. Nathan Deal appears well-positioned to defeat former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes. The question is whether Deal can get the 50 percent of the vote needed to avoid a run-off.

Wisconsin Governor -- Toss Up to Lean R: Aided by the political environment and an aggressive campaign, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) has opened up a lead in the high single digits over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D).

New Mexico Governor -- Toss Up to Lean R: While Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has run a solid campaign against Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez (R), she has had to fight against the political environment and her role as outgoing Gov. Bill Richardson's (D) second in command. Martinez is poised to become the state's first woman governor.

South Dakota Governor -- Likely R to Solid R: Nothing to see here. Republican Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard will win big.

Toward Democrats:

Maryland Governor -- Toss Up to Lean D: Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley has opened up a lead over former GOP Gov. Bob Ehrlich, and seems assured of a second term.

This is no trick but it may be a treat for the hundreds, maybe thousands, descending on the National Mall tomorrow at noon. "The Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear?" hosted by Comedy Central's Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert is finally here after weeks of speculation. The rally will be broadcasted live on Comedy Central and C-SPAN at noon for those that cannot attend in person.

This weekend we'll hear closing arguments from Senate and House leaders including a "Face the Nation" showdown between NRSC Chair John Cornyn (R-Texas) and DSCC Chair Robert Menendez (R-N.J.). RNC Chair Michael Steele will be on "State of the Union" while DNC Chair Tim Kaine meets RGA Chair Haley Barbour (R-Miss.) on "Meet The Press."

Other weekend specials include: CNN's "Boiling Point: Inside The Tea Party" will air at 8 pm ET 10/30. The one-hour documentary showcases CNN's Shannon Travis reporting on the Tea Party movement from California, Delaware, Alaska, Florida and beyond, interviewing former Tea Party Express chair Mark Williams, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), and "the godmother" of the Tea Party Mary Rakovich. Also on CNN, a special "Fareed Zakaria GPS" called "Restoring the American Dream." The special will shed some light on what must be done "to restore the America's economic prosperity and "America Votes 2010" with Wolf Blitzer and Anderson Cooper anchor live updates of last minute midterm election news (Saturday at 6 p.m./ Sunday at 9 p.m.).

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), DNC Chair Tim Kaine, NBC's Tom Brokaw, Time's Mark Halperin, NPR's Michele Norris, Cook Report's Charlie Cook and NBC's Chuck Todd.
Face the Nation hosts Rep. Pete King (R-NY), Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D).
This Week hosts NRSC Chair John Cornyn and DSCC Chair Robert Menendez.
Fox News Sunday hosts former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen (Md.).
State of the Union hosts RNC Chair Michael Steele, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), radio host William Bennett and former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.).

In a move that pits him against the liberal Democratic base just weeks after asking it for money, Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) became the latest member to say he won't commit to voting for Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to be Speaker again.

In a chat with Cincinnati.com readers, Driehaus, who is facing former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) in a rematch this year, was asked if he would back Pelosi if Democrats retain the majority next Tuesday.

"I expect Speaker Pelosi will have a challenge within the caucus," Driehaus responded. "And I will hold my vote until I know who's running for Speaker."

With the remark, Driehaus became the 18th House Democrat who has either said that they won't back Pelosi again or would consider voting for someone else.

Driehaus' remarks are striking because they show him snubbing his nose at the liberal wing of the Democratic Party that Pelosi represents just two weeks after making a direct plea to it for money. After the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee canceled its air reservations in Driehaus' district -- a sign that they viewed his chances as long -- Driehaus made a direct plea for money on ActBlue.com, a liberal fundraising site.

On the other hand, Pelosi is closely tied to the DCCC. So both his ActBlue.com plea and his ambivalence toward Pelosi could both be a result of his disappointment that the committee pulled out of his Cincinnati-area district.

"The DCCC recently pulled millions of dollars in advertising from members who stood for our Democratic principles and are re-investing that money in the races of Democrats who didn't have the guts to take the tough votes," Driehaus' ActBlue page says. "Send a message to the DCCC that you support members who stand up for the American people."

After the jump is a full breakdown of Democrats who have said they either won't support Pelosi or would consider someone else.

For as long as anyone can remember, television networks and the Associated Press have reported votes on election night by saying, "With x percent of precincts reporting ..." But, this method of reporting election results is about to go the way of the VCR.

Starting Tuesday night, the results of statewide races will be reported by giving the percentage of "expected vote." The votes reported at the state level at any given time will be divided by the estimate of the total votes that will be cast in the state to come up with the percentage of expected votes.

"Percentage of precincts reporting" is no longer accurate because the increase in early and absentee voting can provide a skewed picture of how much of the vote has actually been counted. Some counties, for example, dump all their absentee votes and call it one precinct even though these votes may be half of the county's total. Others report partial precinct results and keep adding to the total. And because absentee votes are often counted more slowly than votes cast on Election Day, the percentage of the vote reported even on Wednesday morning may be far short of 100 percent. In 2004, only 54 percent of the final vote in Washington State was counted by mid-day Wednesday.

Most voters won't notice the change. For others, it may take a couple of elections to learn a new way to watch results on Election Night.

Republicans are pointing to internal polling that suggests that Pres. Obama will do more harm than good for Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello this evening when Obama holds a rally for him in Charlottesville, Va.

The polling suggests that Obama's visit could do more to rally the base of Perriello's challenger, state Sen. Robert Hurt (R), than help Perriello's chances.

According to Republican polling obtained by Hotline On Call, Obama holds higher disapproval ratings in Virginia's 5th District than he does nationwide.

More than half of the district -- 53 percent -- disapproves of Obama's performance as president, according to the McLaughlin and Associates survey that was conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee. Forty-five percent approve of his performance.

In Gallup's national daily tracking, a similar percentage - 44 percent -- approve of Obama's job performance, but fewer -- 49% percent -- disapprove.

And while Obama has maintained strong personal favorability numbers,his numbers in Perriello's district are lagging behind. Half of the 400 likely voters in the survey view him personally unfavorably, while 43 percent view him favorably.

The NRCC also tested whether voters in the 5th District want their member in Congress to be a check and balance on Obama or someone who would help the president. Forty-nine percent said they wanted a representative who stood against Obama, while 40 percent said they wanted one who supported him. Perriello has been a reliable vote for Obama on his signature pieces of legislation this year -- health care, the cap-and-trade energy bill and the stimulus.

If there was any question about whether this midterm election is a referendum on Pres. Obama and his policies, Nevada GOP Senate contender Sharron Angle removed any doubt with a blistering new ad on Friday.

Of course, there have been a myriad of ads tying Democrats to Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). But none have gone as far as Angle is in her latest spot. Angle even goes so far as attempting to steal the "change" mantle from Obama.

The ad begins with an image of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Obama, featuring footage of crowds chanting "Obama!"

"Harry Reid and Barack Obama, together they promised change," the ad says. "What change did that bring to Las Vegas? We now suffer heartbreaking job losses while our state now leads the nation in home foreclosures and bankruptcies. They promised change. Now it's our turn."

In many ways, Reid couldn't avoid the race becoming nationalized because of his position as Senate Majority Leader. Indeed, he has also sought to benefit from Obama -- the president held a rally in Las Vegas Reid last week.

The hard-hitting ad comes as a Mason-Dixon poll out Friday shows Angle leading Reid 49 percent to 45 percent.

Check out the ad below.

Good Friday morning. Four days to go! Here's what is on the radar today: Dems show their concerns about keeping the Senate, Sharron Angle (R-Nev.) up four in a new poll, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) clears his conscience, Pres. Obama props up Tom Perriello (D-Va.), the Cook Political Report puts more House Democrats on alert and Rep. Walt Minnick's (D-Idaho) meth ad. Seriously.

A Senate Scare For Dems? There are some fresh signs that Democrats aren't completely convinced they've got the Senate majority locked up. First, there are the reports that Pres. Bill Clinton attempted to persuade Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) to withdraw from the Florida Senate race and that Meek came close to agreeing -- twice. The story, first reported by Politico, was confirmed by Crist, who has now said on multiple TV shows that he had talks with Clinton. On top of that, the White House had knowledge of the talks. (Meek has questioned parts of the story and is currently doing his own media blitz in response.)

This comes as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has begun emailing reporters about the Alaska Senate race -- a contest that, thus far, hasn't been at the top of their target list. The Democratic messaging there last night focused on Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), not attorney Joe Miller (R), who is lagging in third place in a new poll. And now, the DSCC is going up with ads in Alaska for the first time on behalf of Democrat Scott McAdams, NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

With the bizarre three-way contest, McAdams has a real shot at winning, and could be the candidate that ends any hopes of a Republican Senate majority, especially if there's a huge Republican wave on Election Night.

There are some fresh signs that GOP has momentum in key races in the closing days: Already two new polls (SurveyUSA and Rasmussen -- both IVR surveys) show Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) in a neck-and-neck race with Republican Dino Rossi. Additionally, there are new reports that early voting in Pennsylvania -- home to one of the most competitive Senate races -- is breaking Republican.

Looking at the Senate contests race by race, a lot has to break their way in order for the GOP to win the 10 seats needed for a majority. But these late moves by Democrats indicate that, at the very least, there has been real concern about that happening. http://politi.co/bmwI0X, http://bit.ly/byCxU8

Angle Up Four: Republican Sharron Angle leads Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) by four points for the second time this week, and she is creeping very close to 50 percent. Angle leads 49 percent to 45 percent in a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. That is the same margin Angle had in a Time/CNN poll earlier this week. http://bit.ly/aaaqG7

Schumer's Conscience: Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), a likely contender to be Senate Majority Leader if Reid loses next week, gave $250,000 to the Nevada Democratic Party to boost Reid's chances. This is the second time Schumer has given that amount to the Nevada Democrats.

Star Studded Nevada: And, speaking of Nevada, plenty of big names are heading to Las Vegas for the Senate race on Friday. Angle hosts actor Jon Voight and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Reid, meanwhile, will get a boost from boxing champ Manny "Pacman The Destroyer" Pacquiao. (Don't forget that Reid used to be a boxer, and that Pacquiao is a member of the Philippines' legislature.

While political junkies can only speculate about what will happen during the 2012 elections, there will be one important leading indicator next year for how the 2012 environment is shaping up.

Observers should pay attention next year to the Virginia state legislative elections for a preview of how Pres. Obama and Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) will fare in the Old Dominion. Since 2003, every Virginia state election has foreshadowed the federal election the following year. In 2003, Republicans won 24 out of 40 state Senate seats, increasing their majority by three seats. The next year, Pres. Bush carried the commonwealth as did eight out of 11 GOP House candidates.

Meanwhile, on the national level, Bush won and congressional Republicans expanded their majorities in both chambers.

In 2005, Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D) won the highly-contested governor's race over Attorney General Jerry Kilgore (R). One year later, Webb's razor-thin win over Sen. George Allen (R) clinched Democratic control of the U.S. Senate.

Virginia Democrats struck again in 2007, flipping the state Senate by winning a narrow majority while picking up seats in the House of Delegates as well. That acted as a prelude to 2008, when Obama carried Virginia for the Democrats for the first time since 1964 en route to winning the presidency. Down the ballot, former Gov. Mark Warner (D) trounced his predecessor in the governor's mansion, Jim Gilmore (R), in the U.S. Senate race. Democrats also picked up three U.S. House seats, giving them a 6-5 majority in the state's delegation.

The Democrats' momentum then came to a screeching halt in Virginia last year. Gov. Bob McDonnell (D) routed state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) by 18 points, and the GOP also ran roughshod over the Democrats down ballot. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) won re-election by 14 points. Ken Cuccinelli (R) toppled state Del. Steve Shannon (D) 58 percent to 42 percent.

Democrats did not start this election cycle in a position to lose their House majority. Republicans didn't begin the cycle in a position to pick up so many seats. On the contrary, media outlets were writing the GOP's obituary and lauding the unbeatable Pres. Obama.

But reality intervened, and next Tuesday's midterm elections seem destined to wreak havoc on the Democratic majority, and on President Obama's political future. The situation changed thanks to a handful of seemingly small moments, all of which added up to a tsunami headed for even some of the Democrats' strongest bulwarks. We surveyed the smartest political minds in the country to come up with a list of those landscape-altering moments:

The Democratic Agenda: Democrats have long been bragging that their vaunted opposition research team had a stack of disqualifying information about Republican candidates. But Republicans have three pieces of their own research that has proven more effective than dredging up old divorce records and business dealings: The stimulus bill, cap and trade legislation and health care reform.

Regardless of whether the stimulus bill has helped the economy, or even prevented further losses, voters don't believe the mammoth spending and tax cut bill has helped. And because no House Republicans voted for the bill, the perceived failure is wholly owned by Democrats.

But a failed stimulus may have been forgivable, if Democrats had done something else to turn around the jobs picture. Instead, the party moved on to cap and trade and health care. The cap and trade vote, Democratic strategists believe, came so early and was so demonized that many Democrats became vulnerable as early as last summer. The party sealed its fate when Democrats cast a Sunday vote to pass health care reform, effectively alienating seniors and male voters. In the end, the 111th Congress has been one of the most effective in recent history. That efficiency, and their accomplishments, will cost them seats.

The Warning Signs: Looking back on the 1994 romp, then-Rep. Ron Lewis's (R) victory in a Kentucky special election, in a district held by Democrats for as long as anyone could remember, was the harbinger of that fall's Republican gains. In 2005, Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) eked out a victory over Paul Hackett (D) in a special election for an open seat in Ohio, an early warning that the GOP was about to lose its majority.

This time around, an open seat in Massachusetts was a massive siren that warned Democrats of the danger they faced. A little-known Republican state senator, Scott Brown, stunned the state's popular attorney general in a special election to fill the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D) seat. Though Democrats have had special election success this cycle, winning a Republican-held House seat in New York and holding on to two other vulnerable districts, the Senate loss in one of the bluest states in the country stunned Democrats and strongly suggested that panic was an appropriate option.

Despite having spent more than $140 million of her own money to become the first female governor of California, political operatives in both parties overwhelmingly believe that former eBay CEO and Republican hopeful Meg Whitman will fall short in her quest, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

A whopping 92 percent of the Democratic and Republican Insiders who were surveyed said that Democratic California attorney general Jerry Brown, who was governor of the state from 1975 to 1983, will be returning to Sacramento for a third term. Only eight percent thought Whitman would prevail.

That view was shared across party lines. Only 12 percent of the Republican Insiders said that Whitman would win the contest, and a miniscule three percent of Democratic Insiders said she would prevail over Brown.

At the same time, in the key governor's race in Ohio, the National Journal Political Insiders said by a wide margin that Republican nominee John Kasich would unseat incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland. Overall, 82 percent of the Insiders said that Kasich would beat Strickland while only 18 percent said the Democrat would survive. Two thirds of the Democratic Insiders predicted Kasich would win, while nearly all of the Republican Insiders -- 98 percent -- said he would be the Buckeye State's next governor.

Updated, 3:00 p.m.

Kentucky Democrats are throwing another hail mary in the Senate race, going up with a one-minute ad that features the footage of a Rand Paul (R) supporter stepping on a MoveOn.org volunteer.

The ad is dark and tries to tie the incident after the last Senate debate to Paul's issue positions. "The Rand Paul Stomp" displays on the screen as "end student loans" and "end mind safety laws" are displayed below.

"Rand Paul. Stomping on you. Stomping on Kentucky," the ad concludes.

It is unclear how large the buy for the ad is and how long it will be on the air. Democrats in the state say it is airing in the Lexington and Bowling Green markets.

A call to the Kentucky Democratic Party was not immediately returned. A call to Paul's campaign was also not returned.

The ad is haunting, but it is still not clear whether the incident will have an effect on the race. Democrat Jack Conway (D) has continued to trail by significant margins and this -- like the Aqua Buddha ad earlier -- is another attempt to shake up the race.

Check out the ad below.

Updated, 3:00 p.m.: Matt Erwin, a spokesman for the Kentucky Democrats, said the ad will go on the air on Friday, but only after 10 p.m. so parents don't have to explain it to their children.

Of course, that also means less voters are likely to see it.

Democratic operatives and party strategists are closely divided about their prospects for holding onto two key Senate seats in Illinois and Pennsylvania that would preserve their majority in the Senate, while Republicans are very optimistic that they will fall to the GOP on Nov. 2, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Asked to predict the winners in four key Senate races -- Kentucky, Illinois, Nevada and Pennsylvania -- a solid majority of the 90 Democratic Insiders who participated in the poll this week, 64 percent, thought that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid would pull out his race in Nevada, but 83 percent also thought that Democratic nominee in Kentucky, Attorney General Jack Conway, would fall short.

In Illinois, 52 percent of the Democratic Insiders said that their nominee Alexi Giannoulias would win while 48 percent thought that GOP hopeful Rep. Mark Kirk would take the seat previously held by Pres. Barack Obama. By an almost identical margin, 53 percent to 47 percent, Democratic Insiders said that Rep. Joe Sestak, the Democratic standard bearer in Pennsylvania, would beat his GOP opponent Pat Toomey.

At the same time, the 87 Republican Insiders who responded this week thought that their candidates in all four states would handily win. The closest contest among these four was in Nevada where 70 percent thought that GOP nominee Sharron Angle would win while 30 percent said Reid would hold onto his seat.

For a look at how many seats the Insiders think the GOP will pick up in the House and Senate, click here.

Doug Hoffman, the conservative activist that spoiled the GOP's chances in a New York special election last year, may be hurting their prospects again despite suspending his campaign.

Democrats have been hoping that conservative third party candidates sink the GOP's chances in several targeted House races, and new polling suggests this race may be the most likely to achieve that goal.

According to a Siena Research poll released Thursday, Rep. Bill Owens (D-N.Y.) leads Republican Matt Doheny by only three points -- 40 percent to 37 percent, with Hoffman pulling in 15 percent.

The poll shows that Doheny is making up ground but that Hoffman continues to take support from him among Republicans. In an Oct. 13 Siena poll, Doheny trailed by a larger, 11 point margin -- 42 percent to 31 percent. Hoffman still pulled 15 percent in that survey.

Among Republicans, Hoffman earned 20 percent in Thursday's poll, only slightly less than the 22 percent he received in the poll two weeks ago.

When respondents were told that Hoffman suspended his campaign, his support dropped to 4 percent and the race between Owens and Doheny became a dead heat at 42 percent.

That suggests that on Election Night, if voters retain any loyalty to Hoffman, Doheny could be in trouble but if enough are aware that Hoffman is out of the race (and endorsed him), he's in solid position to unseat Owens.

Owens won the seat in a special election in 2009. In that race, Hoffman's third-party candidacy garnered national attention and forced establishment favorite Dede Scozzafava (R) to suspend her campaign in the final week of the race. She went on to throw her support to Owens and he defeated Hoffman.

The Siena Research poll was conducted Oct. 23 to 26. It surveyed 623 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.

The number of Democratic incumbents who have not committing to backing Nancy Pelosi for another term as House Speaker continues to grow, signaling that even if they hold on to the House, Democrats may seek a new leader.

All told, 17 House Democrats have either said that they flatly will not vote for Pelosi or would consider someone else. Another seven Democratic House candidates have said the same.

Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) -- who comes from a Republican leaning district -- is the latest Democrat to declare opposition to Pelosi.

Shuler said in a debate Wednesday that he'll vote for himself before casting a vote for Pelosi.

"If that's the alternative," he said, "I will be voting for myself."

Democratic party strategists have downplayed these defections - saying they, and the Speaker, understand that Democrats have to do what it takes to get elected.

Other Democrats who have voiced their opposition to Pelosi recently include Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.). DeFazio's distancing himself from Pelosi is particularly striking because he is from a relatively liberal district and doesn't face a tough challenge this year.

On MSNBC earlier this week, DeFazio strongly denounced the Speaker.

"I've had substantial issues where I just don't think that someone from that zip code, from San Francisco, understands the needs of the people I represent in Congress," he said.

The list of anti-Pelosi Dems is after the jump:

Good Thursday morning. Five days out! Where's what on the radar today: The GOP's effective messaging on "Obamacare;" NRSC, DSCC make big final ad buys; Joe Manchin (D) closes strong in West Virginia; it's looking tight as a tick in Vermont; Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R) trade blows for the final time and Kendrick Meek gets a boost from an unlikely source.

Dem Health Care Woes: As with all things politics, branding matters. And a new study suggests that Republicans have convinced the public that the health care bill is a flop. A majority -- 51 percent -- say that an "acceptable" outcome of the midterms would be the repeal of health care reform.

The report was put together by Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies by pulling from several surveys he has conducted over the course of the campaign and provided to Hotline On Call.

It shows that 89 percent hold a negative opinion on the term "Obamacare" -- underscoring that the word "has entered the American political lexicon." Nearly half of voters -- 47 percent -- have a negative view of "Obamacare" while just 29 percent have a favorable view of it. Only 15 percent have a "very positive" view of it while 37 percent have a "very negative" view, showing that the term has helped rally the conservative base this year.

In the 92 most-competitive House seats, where the most money is being spent on campaigns, opposition to the health care law reached 53 percent, with only 40 percent supporting it.

If the numbers and trendlines hold, the White House will face a challenge in effectively dealing with GOP plans to repeal at least some elements of the legislation, which is a major plank of the Republican agenda if they take back at least partial control of Congress.

NRSC, DSCC Leave It On The Field: The two senatorial campaign committees filed massive media buys to the FEC late Tuesday. The National Republican Senatorial Committee spent nearly $8 million on ads in nine states while the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent $8.78 million on ads in eight states.

Both committees are spending the most in Pennsylvania. The DSCC dished out nearly $2.2 million to attack Republican Pat Toomey, while the NRSC spent more than $1.6 million on targeting Rep. Joe Sestak. The two committees also spent about $1 million each in Colorado, Illinois and West Virginia.

The notable differences: The DSCC outspent the NRSC in Washington state -- dishing out $1 million on attacking Republican Dino Rossi. The NRSC spent $684,000 on that race, targeting Sen. Patty Murray.

The NRSC stayed on offense in California, spending more than $2.7 million on the race, while the DSCC did not spend any money there. But the NRSC also had to spend $150,000 in Alaska in a race where the write-in candidate, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) looks like she has momentum.

The DSCC, meanwhile, spent $450,000 to defend Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut, while the NRSC stayed out of that race.

The two committees also both spent money in Nevada and Kentucky.

Manchin Closes Strong: West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is up with a strong closing ad in the West Virginia Senate race. As he has done throughout the race, Manchin seeks to distance himself from Washington. "I'm as mad as you are with what's going on in Washington," Manchin says. "Give me the chance to shake up Washington."

Manchin is now leading in most polls and appears to be in control of the race. A week from now, Republicans may view this race as the one that got away.
AD: http://bit.ly/bn3ziQ

If the Democrats lose 50 seats, it will be the biggest swing in House elections since 1994, when they lost 52 seats that year and it would almost completely recoup the combined 51 seats that Republicans lost in the last two national elections; 30 seats in 2006 and 21 seats in 2008.

The fate of the current Democratic House majority was shared by Political Insiders in both parties. While it was not surprising that every one of the 87 GOP Insiders thought their party would win the House, the vast majority of Democrats also said the chamber was all but lost. Four-out-of-five of the 90 Democratic Insiders who responded also said that the Republicans would capture the House.

The average number of seats that the Democratic Insiders predicted that the GOP would pick up was 47. The average number that Republican Insiders thought their party would win was 53.

But the poll also finds that GOP prospects in the Senate are practically a mirror image of what they are in the House. Among all Political Insiders, only six percent believe the Republicans will be able to win the Senate. Here too, the partisan accord was striking: only eight percent of the GOP Insiders felt the Republicans would capture the Senate and only three percent of the Democratic Insiders did as well. On average, Republican Insiders thought their party would net eight Senate seats, while Democratic Insiders put the number at seven. Overall, the average Senate seat change forecast by the Political Insiders was also seven.

Republican Sharron Angle has surged to a four point lead in the Nevada Senate race, leading Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) 49 percent to 45 percent, according to new polling.

The CNN/Time poll, released Wednesday, is particularly striking because it is the first public, live caller poll conducted in the Senate race in about two weeks. In previous polls, Reid and Angle had been in a statistical dead heat.

The poll is a sign that with one week to go, Angle appears to have the momentum.

The TIME/CNN poll also surveyed several other Senate battlegrounds, and found some other notable findings. In the Colorado Senate race, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) has nearly erased his months-long deficit to Republican Ken Buck, trailing only 47 to 46 percent.

Other results from the Time/CNN polls mirror other recent surveys. Rep. Joe Sestak still trails former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey by four points -- 49 percent to 45 percent - but is within striking distance.

In the final stretch of the election season, many candidates on both the state and federal levels are going all out to make their final pleas to voters. It's the end of months -- and even years -- of fundraising, phone banks and, oh yeah, even more fundraising.

With all of that fundraising -- with $3.6 billion raised as of October 26 just for federal campaigns -- candidates are looking at the one of the effective mediums of political advertising: television.

See below for those ads that have made the list so far (to navigate, hover over the photo and use the arrows):

Things aren't looking too rosy for former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) in the California governor's race. After investing over $140 million of her personal fortune, she has been lagging consistently behind former Gov. Jerry Brown (D), with recent polls showing her down by as many as 8 or 9 points. If Whitman loses to Brown next week, pundits will debate what prevented a Whitman victory in what looks to be a very Republican year. Was it the scandal involving her former housekeeper? Maybe it's fact that California still leans Democratic? Or perhaps she was pushed too far to the right during the primaries?

If Whitman continues to slide in the polls and does, ultimately, lose next week, there's one other aspect of the race that few people have discussed so far. California voters historically have had an aversion to self-funders. And Whitman is literally the biggest self-funder of all time.

Jennifer Steen, an Arizona State political science professor who wrote an authoritative study on self-funded candidates, succinctly sums of why self-funders fail so frequently: "Lack of experience," Steen said. "They're not good on the campaign trail. They don't make good decisions. They waste their money like crazy."

Whitman stands in contrast to California Senate Republican contender Carly Fiorina for many of the reasons Steen mentions. Fiorina, another former CEO, has been much more frugal with her own money, and has as a result had to spend more time in outreach and fundraising. In part because of that, Fiorina -- a veteran of big league politics from her work for John McCain (R) in 2008 -- is in a tighter race with Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) despite spending significantly less of her own money.

Steen thought Whitman had "the dis-economy of scale" working for her at this point.

"When you're spending $140 million, odds are that some of that could be spent just as well throwing it in the wind," she said.

Congressional candidates are slugging it out in 100 congressional districts across the country on November 2, but for a few men and women, the future is all but certain to include a swearing-in ceremony and a personalized electronic voting card. Twenty-two candidates in the 2010 election have a nearly unobstructed path to victory next week after winning primaries in districts that are either solidly Republican or Democratic. National Journal will profile all of the likely new members of Congress beginning today.

Putting his parental duties ahead of his political aspirations, Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart stunned political observers in the Windy City on Wednesday by announcing he will not run for mayor of Chicago.

"I have found it impossible for it to be compatible between running for mayor and being a father and husband," said Dart, who has five children.

Dart's unexpected decision is a major boon for former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, to whom Dart was widely considered the most formidable challenger. In fact, Dart released a web video several weeks ago sardonically "welcoming" Emanuel back to Chicago -- viewed at the time as a sure indication that Dart was preparing to enter the race.

Despite the obvious implications of his decision -- namely, that Emanuel is now the clear-front runner -- Dart insisted that he wasn't "paving the way for anybody," adding that he hasn't spoken to any of the candidates to inform them of his decision. "The fact that I'm in or out -- that's not going to coronate anybody," said Dart.

With Dart out of the race, the list of probable challengers to Emanuel has dwindled to five, including two Hispanic candidates -- former Chicago School Board Pres. Gery Chico and City Clerk Miguel Del Valle -- who Emanuel's team hopes will split the city's Latino vote. Three other mayoral hopefuls -- former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, state Rep. James Meeks and Rep. Danny Davis -- have all began organizing their campaign infrastructure, although only Meeks has formally declared his candidacy.

With less than a week to go, there are more than 100 Democratic House seats at risk. But which seats will tell us early on Election Night just how much devastation there could be? Here's a helpful five-point scale to measure the storm, hurricane, tsunami, (insert natural disaster here) hurtling straight toward Democrats before the major networks call the House.

In Indiana and Kentucky, the first two states to report in results, there are five Democratic seats worth watching. From highest to lowest likelihood of switching to the GOP, they are the seats of Reps. Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) (who is running for the Senate), Baron Hill (Ind.), Ben Chandler (Ky.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), and John Yarmuth (Ky.).

Democrats privately acknowledge that GOP surgeon Larry Bucshon will win Ellsworth's Evansville-based "Bloody Eighth," which has switched parties eight times in the last 50 years but has voted for the winning party in the House each election since 1982. Democrats still hold out some hope that Hill will survive in the neighboring seat to the east, but at this point GOP attorney Todd Young is probably a slight favorite to defeat him.

The real bellwethers are the brawls in Chandler's 6th District of Kentucky and Donnelly's 2nd District of Indiana. Both Chandler and Donnelly have distanced themselves from Congress and their leadership to survive in hostile territory, and Democrats are still spending heavily to paint Chandler's foe Andy Barr (R) as a spoiled and corrupt lawyer and Donnelly's rival Jackie Walorski (R) as a wacky and extreme politician. Both races are toss ups.

A cadre of veteran House Democrats is in serious risk of being swept out of Congress in a GOP wave this year, according to new polling out Wednesday.

On Tuesday, Hotline On Call reported that a spate of new polls suggested the bottom was falling out for Democrats. In most cases, Wednesday's surveys are another indication of the same trend.

The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll surveyed the districts of 10 veteran Democrats. The polls were conducted by Penn Schoen Berland. Each poll surveyed 400 likely voters, and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent. They were conducted from Oct. 16-20.

There are several clear losers in the surveys. House Budget Chair John Spratt (D-S.C.) is trailing his Republican challenger, Mick Mulvaney by 10 points, 49 percent to 39 percent. Similarly, Texas Rep. Chet Edwards (D) is down 12 points to businessman Bill Flores (R) -- 52 percent to 40 percent.

The situation is even worse for Rep. Jim Marshall (D). His southern Georgia district is breaking heavily toward Republican Austin Scott, according to the survey. He trails 50 percent to 37 percent.

A few Democrats in the survey are holding their own. North Dakota Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D), for example, is leading Republican Rick Berg by a point -- 45 percent to 44 percent. Similarly, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) is up three on Republican Kristi Noem -- 45 percent to 42 percent.

A full breakdown of the polling results is after the jump.

American Crossroads, the conservative group that has played a major role in this year's midterms, made $6 million worth of ad buys for the final week of the election late Tuesday night.

The two groups -- American Crossroads and its nonprofit organization, Crossroads GPS -- spent in both Senate and House races. Some of the buys -- like the one in Rep. Russ Carnahan's (D-Mo.) suburban St. Louis district -- show that the GOP is going after new targets.

Crossroads GPS made the biggest expenditures in the Illinois and Washington Senate races -- two of the costliest races this year. They spent $1 million on an ad targeting state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) in Illinois and another $1 million targeting Sen. Patty Murray (D) in Washington. American Crossroads also spent $646,000 on an ad attacking Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in Colorado, in what's shaping up to be a barnburner of a Senate race.

The same group spent money against new Democratic targets. They include Carnahan, Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D-N.Y.) and Jim Costa (D-Calif.). They also went on the air attacking Democratic Reps. Ciro Rodriguez (Texas), Lincoln Davis (Tenn.), John Boccieri (Ohio), and Joe Donnelly (Ind.).

They also targeted Reps. Sanford Bishop (Ga.), Heath Shuler (N.C.) -- and are expending resources to defend GOP Rep. Charles Djou (Hawaii).

Here's my latest "Against the Grain" column on how the health care law is proving to be a poison pill for Democrats, turning a bad election year into a disaster of potential history-making proportions:

The administration's relentless focus on health care last year came at the worst possible time, when most Americans were looking at a scary economic climate and wanted laser-like attention to fixing it. It greatly expanded the scope of government, even though most Americans identify themselves as moderates or conservatives. It helped galvanize a movement, the tea party, that's shaping up to be a force in politics.

This election is not about messaging or money -- it's largely about policy, and in particular, on a far-reaching piece of legislation that has proven deeply unpopular in states and districts across the country. If the White House fails to acknowledge or address the deep and widespread opposition to the law, the president's strategists are going to have a tough time figuring out how to effectively deal with GOP plans to repeal at least some elements of the legislation, which is emerging as a significant part of the Republican agenda in the next Congress.

Read it all here.

Good Wednesday morning. Six days out! Here's what's on the radar today: A conflict of interest in Rhode Island; Barbour reminds candidates of his help; DCCC makes a last ditch effort to save the House; an apology ad from Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) and Pres. Obama tapes the "Daily Show."

Rhode Island Royalty: Remember the flap earlier this week about Rhode Island gubernatorial Democratic nominee Frank Caprio telling Pres. Obama to "shove" his endorsement? A closer look Obama's Rhode Island trip this week may explain why Obama is staying on the sidelines in that race between Caprio, Republican John Robitaille and former Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I).

Obama was in Rhode Island for a fundraiser for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. It was hosted by Arnold "Buff" Chace, who happens to be a big time Chafee donor. In fact, FEC reports show that Chace or his family gave at least $11,000 to Chafee when he was in the Senate. They have also given $2,000 to Chafee's gubernatorial bid this year.

In statistics, correlation does not equal causation. But in politics, it often does. http://bit.ly/bYIr0E

Other odd things have been popping up in Rhode Island. A day after the whole flap, Chafee went up with an ad that prominently featured Obama. And with Obama staying out of the gubernatorial ranks, Bill Clinton announced Tuesday that he'll campaign for Caprio later in the week. Who would have thought Rhode Island, of all places, would be such a headache for Democrats this year? http://bit.ly/aqikPx, http://bit.ly/9o5btw

DCCC Makes Last Ditch Effort For House: Don't miss our story on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spending $21.6 million on ad buys in 66 districts for the final week of the campaign. Complete breakdown here: http://bit.ly/9oht8u

Barbour Dishes Out The Dough: Mississippi Governor and potential 2012 presidential contender Haley Barbour (R) announced $440,000 worth of contributions to Republicans nationwide. Barbour, the chairman of the Republican Governors Association, has "participated" in all 37 gubernatorial contests this year by either giving to an individual candidate or a state party.

He also gave to 31 Senate campaigns and 23 House contenders, many of whom -- like Kentucky Republican Rand Paul and Nevada Republican Sharron Angle -- are favorites of the Tea Party wing of the party.

There are a couple notable exceptions. In Colorado, Barbour didn't give directly to Republican contender Dan Maes, whose candidacy has collapsed in Colorado. He also gave to attorney Joe Miller (R) in the Alaska Senate race, but never contributed to Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R) campaign.

Pomeroy Apologizes: North Dakota Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) is up with a closing ad that is not a good sign for his chances next week. In the ad, Pomeroy distances himself from the Democratic leadership -- and even apologizes for previous votes.

"I'd like to introduce myself," Pomeroy says to the camera. "I'm not Nancy Pelosi. I'm not Barack Obama. I'm Earl Pomeroy."

He goes on: "I know I've disappointed you with a vote here or there, but you can always count on the fact that I do what I do for the right reason: The people of North Dakota."
AD: http://bit.ly/b0MPAP

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is making a last ditch effort to survive a GOP wave by blanketing the airwaves in more than 60 districts in the final week of the campaign.

According to FEC filings late Tuesday, the DCCC purchased $21.6 million worth of air time in 66 districts.

The ad buys represent the breadth of the GOP 's momentum. Among those 66 districts, many were once considered safe Democratic seats, including those held by Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) and Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.). Only three of the seats in which Democrats are advertising are held by Republicans.

The DCCC's financial priorities are as revealing as where the committee didn't spend. In most cases indicates that Democrats are trailing their Republican challengers by insurmountable deficits. Those Democrats include Reps. Steve Kagen (D-Wis.), Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.), and Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.).

The Democratic buy indicates the party is newly worried about a number of districts in which they had not advertised before this final week of the campaign. Virginia's Connolly will see a $1.1 million ad buy, the first time the committee has spent there. The Democrats similarly spent big for the first time protecting Rep. John Adler (D-N.J.), who will benefit from $642,000 in ad spending.

Democrats are also spending in districts held by Reps. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Ron Klein (D-Fla.) and Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.).

The DCCC is spending big on a handful of party-held open seats, including the seat held by Rep. Bill Delahunt. It spent $823,000 on an ad targeting Republican state Rep. Jeff Perry. The party is also going after seats being vacated by Rep. Bart Stupak (D), in the Upper Penninsula of Michigan, and David Obey (D), the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee.

Democrats are only going on the offense in three of the 66 districts where it spent money. It is spending $776,000 on the open seat vacated by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.). It also went up with another $126,000 buy targeting Rep. Charles Djou (R-Hawaii). Lastly, they continue to target the Illinois seat vacated by Rep. Mark Kirk (R) so he could run for the Senate.

A complete breakdown after the jump.

A combination of national surrogates and a state level efforts suggests Democrats and Sen. Patty Murray (D) are making a concerted effort to shore up support from women in the closing weeks of the Washington Senate race.

It's a strategy that Democrats are trying to use in races across the country and is especially important in Washington state, where women compose 53 percent of the electorate.

In Seattle last week to boost Murray's chances in her neck-and-neck re-election race against former state Sen. Dino Rossi (R), Pres. Obama joined what was billed as "a discussion on women and the economy," a clear overture to women voters ahead of next week's election. During the appearance, Obama worked to appeal to women primarily on economic grounds, defending some of his administration's policies in the process.

First Lady Michelle Obama was in town to raise money for Murray on Monday and Second Lady Jill Biden also made an appearance. According to the White House pool report, "the crowd appeared to be heavily female and speeches were tailored to women's' issues."

Meanwhile, an effort to reach out to women on social issues is taking place in Murray's campaign. Earlier this month, Murray launched a TV ad in which a female narrator asks if voters can "trust a man who wants to turn back the clock?" The narrator goes on to say Rossi voted "against insurance companies covering women's contraceptives" and is "not on our side."

Murray has also gotten help from prominent Washington women. At a press conference earlier this month that featured Washington Gov. Chris Gregoire (D) and Planned Parenthood Action Fund CEO Cecile Richards, Gregoire was critical of Rossi for avoiding a discussion about abortion.

To some, the case the Murray campaign is making is less about social issues than it is a personal and emotional appeal. "The issues are highly overrated in the last days of the campaign," said Cathy Allen, a Democratic strategist who is not involved in the race. "It's about trust. Who do you trust? It is much more of a personal assessment of character."

The Cook Political Report on Tuesday moved seven incumbent House Democrats from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat. They are:

MA-06 Rep. John Tierney
NJ-06 Rep. Frank Pallone
NC-04 Rep. David Price
OH-10 Rep. Dennis Kucinich
OR-04 Rep. Peter DeFazio
TN-05 Rep. Jim Cooper
TX-25 Rep. Lloyd Doggett

Updated, 8:22 p.m.

The American Action Network, one of the biggest conservative third party groups, has seen some of its new House ads pulled by local television stations for factual inaccuracies.

In two districts -- one in Connecticut and another in Colorado -- local stations have pulled AAN ads. The group is spending millions on airing ads in competitive races, and any respite is welcome in Democratic camps. 

AAN is a conservative 501(c)4 group that does not have to disclose its donors. It is currently led by former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) and GOP fundraiser Fred Malek.

The decisions by the stations also call into question the validity of the other ads AAN is airing. The group planned to run ads in 22 districts over the last two weeks of the campaign.

On Tuesday, the group's ad targeting Rep. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) was pulled by FoxCT -- the local FOX affiliate -- because it contained claims that the group could not substantiate.

"Following a review of the spot titled 'Mess' and the documentation provided by the American Action Network, WTIC-TV, the FOX affiliate in Hartford, Connecticut, believes the commercial's claims are unsubstantiated and has removed it from air,'' FOX CT spokeswoman Andrea Savastra told the Hartford Courant.

The station's decision may be particularly important for Murphy, who appears to be more vulnerable that most observers believed at the beginning of the cycle. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee went up with an ad in Murphy's 5th District for the first time on Tuesday, attacking state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R).

In Colorado, 9News, the local NBC affiliate, also pulled AAN's ad targeting Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) in Colorado's 7th District. The Perlmutter campaign confirmed on Tuesday that KUSA Channel 9, the local NBC affiliate, is pulling the spot after giving it a scathing fact check on Monday.

Update, 8:22 p.m.: Jim Landry, a spokesman for AAN, sent over the following statement:

The Cook Political Report's pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible. A turnover of just 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands. The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified.

Whereas fewer than a third of Democratic Senate seats are up for election, House Democrats are suffering the full violence of this national undertow. Over a quarter of the entire 255-member House Democratic caucus have trailed GOP opponents in at least one public or private survey, and nearly half have tested under 50 percent of the vote in at least one poll.

At this point, only 190 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 198 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 47 seats are in the Toss Up column. While there are certain to be at least 43 new members of the House thanks to 41 open seats and two vacancies, between 40 and 50 incumbents (over 95 percent of them Democrats) are likely to lose their seats, making for possibly the largest freshman class since 1992.

A new spate of polls this week suggests that the GOP tidal wave Republicans have been anticipating and Democrats have been fearing is beginning to form.

Some of the polls are so striking that next Wednesday, the day after the midterm election, observers may turn to these surveys as a symbol of when the bottom fell out for Democrats.

As always, polling illustrates only a snapshot in time and many factors could cause the dynamic of these races to change in the next week. But that snapshot on Tuesday is looking awfully bad for Democrats.

In New York's 20th District, Rep. Scott Murphy (D) has gone from holding a 17 point lead over Republican Chris Gibson last month to trailing him by nine -- 51 percent to 42 percent. (The Murphy campaign pushed back on the poll, saying Tuesday that their internals have Murphy up 3 percent, 44 to 41 percent. Still, being at 44 percent in a wave election is not a good place to be.)

Similarly, Rep. Walt Minnick's (D-Idaho) race against Republican Raul Labrador (R) has narrowed dramatically to Minnick leading by only three points, 44 to 41 percent, in a new Mason-Dixon poll. Minnick's district is very conservative, but Labrador's campaign has been marked by numerous missteps. So much so that the National Republican Congressional Committee hasn't spent money on the race and the Cook Political Report moved it from the Toss Up column to Lean Democrat in early October.

Even more telling, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released an internal poll that showed Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), a Democrat who wasn't on many vulnerable lists weeks ago, leading by only six points and under 50 percent -- 47 percent to 41 percent. That was in response to a public, automated SurveyUSA poll showing the congressman trailing by 10 points, 52 to 42 percent, despite representing a district that gave President Obama 60 percent of the vote.

And in New Mexico's 1st District, Republican Jon Barela (R) has taken the lead over Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) for the first time, according to Barela campaign polling obtained by Hotline On Call. Barela is leading that race 49 percent to 47 percent in the GOP poll.

THE SENATE: With just six days to go before the votes are cast, the Races to Know become the Races to Watch; the truly close ones that will make the difference for Senate Republicans between a good election night and a great one. Today, there are four races that are within the margin of error. In Nevada, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican nominee Sharron Angle watch the lead between them see-saw almost daily, and neither is ever up more than a point or two.

Illinois is next as Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and GOP Rep. Mark Kirk battle it out for Pres. Obama's seat. Party strategists differ over which candidate holds a tenuous lead of one to three points, but Republicans feel that Giannoulias hurt his chances last week when he accused Kirk of committing "economic treason."

Then there is Colorado where the political environment favors GOP Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck over appointed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet. Buck has made his share of rookie mistakes that could cost him the race, while Bennet has run a textbook campaign. Finally, there is California where a late infusion of cash may help former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina close the gap with Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, who is only ahead by three or four points.

THE GOVERNORS: There are six gubernatorial contests that remain within the margin of error; three held by each party. Democrats are trying to hang on to Ohio where Gov. Ted Strickland and GOP former Rep. John Kasich are within a point or two of each other. In Massachusetts, Gov. Deval Patrick (D) is fighting back a challenge from former Harvard Pilgrim CEO Charlie Baker (R) as Democratic-turned-independent state Treasurer Tim Cahill plays the role of spoiler. In Oregon, former Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber wants his old job back, but is running even with former Portland Trailblazer Chris Dudley (R).

House Republicans are looking like they're in strong position not just to win back the 39 seats necessary for a House majority, but gain a historic number of seats that could surpass recent electoral landslides.

The latest prognosticator to forecast an epic election is CQ/Roll Call political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who wrote today that House Democrats face a "political bloodbath the size of which we haven't seen since the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt."

In a sign of the GOP bullishness, the National Republican Congressional Committee released a memo on Tuesday that also serves as a cheat sheet of what to watch on election night for indications of a GOP landslide.

The memo, penned by NRCC Chair Pete Sessions (R-Texas), highlights three districts in particular, that if Republicans win, it will be a landslide kind of night for the GOP. These races were well off the radar screen just weeks ago, and if the GOP carrying these races early on Election Night, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) can start measuring the drapes.

All three also happen to be in the eastern half of the country, so the results should come in relatively early. They are: Reps. Charlie Wilson (D) in Ohio's 6th District, Tim Walz (D) in Minnesota's 1st District and Gene Taylor (D) in Mississippi's 4th District.

"More troubling for Democrats is the fact that many of these races are even competitive in the first place," Sessions wrote of these races.

Sessions cited four additional races where he believes "Republican enthusiasm foretells a painful election night for Democrats who thought they were immune to the wave."

Those Democrats are Reps. John Adler (D-N.J.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.) and John Salazar (D-Colo.).

One day after his Democratic opponent told Pres. Obama to "shove" his endorsement, former Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I) has gone up with a TV ad that features Obama praising him.

"Real change isn't voting for George Bush's war in Iraq. I knew what it was. Lincoln Chafee knew what it was," Obama says in the ad, the footage of which was taken from a March 2008 rally in Providence, R.I. "It was voting for war. That's why I opposed this war, Linc opposed this war."

The ad also features a cameo from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I).

On Monday, state Treasurer Frank Caprio, the Democratic contender in the Rhode Island governor's race, made waves by criticizing Obama for not endorsing him.

"He can take his endorsement and really shove it," Caprio said in a radio interview.

Obama has not endorsed Chafee's gubernatorial bid.

Check out the ad below.

More Americans want Pres. Obama to seek re-election in 2012 than wanted Ronald Reagan to run for a second term when he was facing his first midterm election in 1982, according to new polling.

Still, Obama's position isn't particularly strong in the Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection poll that was sponsored by SHRM. The poll found that 47 percent want Obama to seek a second term. In August of 1982, only 36 percent wanted Reagan to run again.

And, unlike Reagan, less say Obama should not run for re-election. Forty-two percent responded that Obama should sit out 2012, compared to a majority -- 51 percent -- who said the same of Reagan in 1982.

The numbers indicate the well-documented struggles presidents typically have when they face their first midterm election after winning the White House. Both Reagan and Obama faced severe economic problems in their first two years in office. Like Reagan, Obama will undoubtedly seek to rebound after what looks like it will be a devastating midterm election for his party this year.

Obama's numbers are most reminiscent of Pres. Bill Clinton's when he was going into the GOP tidal wave in the 1994 midterm election. That year, 44 percent wanted Clinton to run again while a higher percentage -- 47 percent -- said he shouldn't.

Good Tuesday morning. One week to go! Here's what's on the radar this morning: Joe Manchin (D) calls John Raese "crazy;" A MoveOn.org activist gets stomped on after the Kentucky Senate debate; Ted Strickland (D) gains, but not enough; DCCC blitzes mailboxes; the left dishes out dough; Kristi Noem takes the lead in South Dakota; South Dakotans want John Thune (R-S.D.) to run for president and a potential Georgia game changer.

West Virginia "Crazy:" West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is up with a strong closing ad that uses businessman John Raese's (R) words to call him "crazy." The ad features clips of Raese opposing the minimum wage, saying he's "in the business of making money," calling for abolishing the department of education and putting "1,000 laser systems in the sky." "John Raese's ideas," the narrator concludes, "are crazy."

The ad comes as several new polls, both internal and public, show Manchin with momentum, holding a lead outside the margin of error. If Manchin can hold West Virginia for, Republicans would need to sweep all the remaining toss-up seats, including in Washington state and California, to win a Senate majority.

Also in West Virginia on Tuesday, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) stumps for Raese on Tuesday. McCain carried the state with 55 percent of the vote in 2008.
AD: http://bit.ly/bZpt0k

Scuffle In Kentucky: The Kentucky Senate debate was "markedly more civil" than the last showdown between Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Rand Paul, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal, but it didn't stay that way for long. According to the report, a scuffle broke out between a Paul supporter and a MoveOn.org volunteer.

From the Courier-Journal: "At one point, violence broke out when Lauren Valle of MoveOn.org approached Paul and tried to give him an employee of the month award from "Republicorp." Republicorp is a fake business MoveOn created to symbolize what it says is the merger of the GOP and business interests controlling political speech. Television video shows Valle, of Washington, D.C., being pushed to the ground and at least one foot stepping down on her head. Valle reported the incident to Lexington police." Yikes. http://bit.ly/9mADSk

More Debates Tuesday: Marco Rubio (R), Charlie Crist (I) and Kendrick Meek (D) face off again in Florida; gubernatorial debates in Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Connecticut. There is also a Senate debate in Iowa.

Strickland Gains, But Not Enough: Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) has narrowed the gap on former Rep. John Kasich (R), but time may be running out. Strickland trails Kasich 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in a Quinnipiac poll out Tuesday. Strickland trailed by 10 points -- 51 percent to 41 percent -- in a Oct. 19 poll. The good news for Strickland: He's hanging tough among independents, trailing 47 percent to 42 percent. That's a lot better than other Democrats nationwide. The bad news: He's an incumbent at 43 percent and 88 percent of respondents said they have already made up their minds. http://bit.ly/am6f8w

DCCC Blitzes Mail Boxes: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported spending on direct mail in 20 districts late Monday -- illustrating another tactic the committee is trying to use to hold onto the House. The districts represent a few Republican held seats they are on offense -- Illinois' 10th, Florida's 25th and Hawaii's 1st. The rest are races where the DCCC has been playing defense.

The full list of districts where the DCCC has hit the mailboxes: AR 01, AZ 05, CA 10, FL 25, GA 02, HI 01, IL 10, IL 14, IL 17, IN 02, IN 09, KY 06, MA 10, MD 01, MI 07, NM 02, OH 16, PA 11, VA 11, WI 07.

The Left's Spending: We've focused a lot on GOP outside group spending, but there has been an uptick on the left as well. Late Monday, the National Education Association filed $1.9 million worth of ad buys in three Senate races. The NEA spent $1 million on an ad targeting Dino Rossi (R) in Washington, $547,000 on Ken Buck in Colorado and $400,000 on Rand Paul (R) in Kentucky. The NEA plans to spend $15 million on ads this cycle.

AFSCME, the self-proclaimed "big dog" of spending this year, reported $1.2 million in ad buys Monday evening. That included $529,000 for a spot targeting Buck, $410,000 for one hitting Jim Renacci (R) in Ohio's 16th District and $262,000 for an ad attacking Tim Walberg (R) in Michigan's 7th District. A significant amount of the labor group's House race spending has gone on behalf of Reps. John Boccieri (D-Ohio) and Mark Schauer (D-Mich.), both stalwart supporters of the president's agenda - and both in conservative-minded Rust Belt districts.

Meanwhile, SEIU says they have spent more than $10 million on Latino outreach efforts in the California governor's race, working against former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

Alvin Greene (D) will not be South Carolina's next senator. Carl Paladino (R) will not run the state of New York. Krystal Ball (D will not be representing Virginia's Fighting 1st Distrist. And unless she casts one powerful spell, Christine O'Donnell (R) likely won't be representing Delaware in the U.S. Senate any time soon.

That's not stopping the media from focusing more than enough attention on those candidates. Comedians love them, and the public enjoys the spectacle too -- O'Donnell Halloween witch costumes are in demand. There's no harm in amusing minor candidates, of course. Every cycle has them, and politics wouldn't be half as entertaining without these diversions.

But there are more than a few candidates running for Senate who aren't getting any attention by the national media and will, almost definitely, be in office next year. And those people will have a direct effect on national public policy, and thus Americans' lives. Here are a few of them:

Republican Mike Lee (R) will easily beat deli chain owner Sam Granato (D) on Nov. 2 and become Utah's next senator. Lee, who was one of the candidates who beat Sen. Bob Bennett (R) at the Utah GOP convention in May, beat venture capitalist Tim Bridgewater (R) in the June primary. That victory effectively assured that Lee would be heading to D.C. come January. Lee, an attorney who once worked as general counsel for former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R), last lived in D.C. clerking for Justice Sam Alito in 2005.

There has been plenty of attention paid to Monday's Chicago Tribune/WGN Illinois Senate poll that shows Rep. Mark Kirk (R) leading state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 44 percent to 41 percent.

A deeper look into that poll, however, provides some more worrisome news for Giannoulias in this key battleground Senate race that both parties are pouring millions into.

First, the independents. That important voting bloc appears to be breaking for Kirk. Fifty percent said in the recent poll that they support Kirk, up from 38 percent in a similar poll four weeks ago. Giannoulias is holding steady with just 28 percent among independents. The number of undecided independents dropped from 22 percent four weeks ago to 8 percent in this poll, indicating that it looks like they are flocking to Kirk.

The other worrisome point for Giannoulias: The collar counties. These suburban Chicago counties are critical for Republicans running statewide in Illinois. Democrats have to at least hold their own in this area in order to be successful. In this most recent poll, Kirk is leading 55 percent to 30 percent in these Chicago suburbs.

One shouldn't extrapolate too much from one poll and this is a very fluid race race where both parties are heavily invested. But these two nuggets look particularly promising for Kirk, and damaging for Giannoulias.

The California gubernatorial contenders went up with two very different ads on Monday that illustrate the trend of the race and who has the momentum.

Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R), who has sunk recently in polls, is up with a classic closing argument spot that features her telling her story directly to the camera. It is remarkably positive and doesn't mention her opponent, former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) by name. It also completely ignores the current dynamic of the race.

"These are scary times," Whitman says. "And I know that cleaning up Sacramento won't be easy. Our problems are tough. But so am I. If you want more of the same from Sacramento, then vote for my opponent. But if you want to get California moving again, I'm ready. Are you?"

Brown, meanwhile, is going up with an ad that keeps the pressure on Whitman. The ad, much like his ad last week, uses Whitman's own words against her. It uses a clip of Whitman saying, "Thirty years ago, anything was possible in this state." Then the following text appears on the screen: "Who was Governor 30 years ago? Jerry Brown."

Conservative outside groups have marshaled their considerable resources with remarkable sophistication in their House efforts -- making sure that groups don't overlap their spending during the final two weeks before Election Day, according to internal documents obtained by Hotline On Call.

The documents break down which districts the five biggest conservative third-party groups have spent or are spending in the final two weeks of the campaign -- last week and this week.

Altogether, the groups plan so far to be on the air in 56 districts during that span and only overlap in one district. All but three of those districts are pickup opportunities for the GOP, and, taken together, they represent a road map to a House majority for the GOP.

The spreadsheets illustrate the level of coordination -- and sophistication -- of the GOP third party efforts this year. (We aren't implying that they are coordinating illegally, but rather that they are carefully monitoring ad buys and FEC reports to make best use of their resources.)

The documents also show that despite the millions of dollars being poured into dozens of House and Senate races -- much to the chagrin of Democrats -- the decision making is centrally located in the hands of very few operatives.

Lastly, the coordination underscores the unity of the GOP message. While liberal groups with different agendas spend in the same district with different messages, their conservative counterparts have focused on specific races with remarkable message discipline -- so much so that each of these groups' ads are nearly interchangeable.

The spreadsheets are remarkable because they show the breadth of the GOP operation. The groups -- American Crossroads, American Action Network, the Center For Individual Freedom, Americans for Tax Reform, and the National Federation of Independent Business -- have been monitoring more than 110 districts, according to the spreadsheet, the vast majority of which are currently held by Democrats.

Republican Van Tran, the upstart challenger to Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.), is betting on voters sniffing out his opponent's struggles -- literally.

Tran is sending out a scratch-and-sniff direct mail piece attacking Sanchez that features a hideous odor emanating from it.

Much like magazine perfume advertisements, the mailer says, "Open for a fragrance sample of "Loretta, The Scent Of Washington."

On the inside of mailer, the piece says, "Something smells rotten about Loretta. It's the stench of Washington." Below that is the scratch and sniff panel.

A GOP source who experienced the Eau de Sanchez put it this way: "It is a horrible odor, like the combination of the five or six worst possible scents you can imagine."

Check it out at the link below.

The Democratic nominee for governor of Rhode Island has some choice words for Pres. Obama and his endorsement as he visits the state today: "Shove" it.

State Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) told WPRO radio that he doesn't want Obama's endorsement.

"He can take his endorsement and really shove it," Caprio said.

He went on to call the endorsement snub a symbol of Washington politics and criticized Obama for coming to the state for a fundraiser. Obama carried Rhode Island with 63 percent of the vote in 2008.

"We had one of the worst floods in the history of the United States a few months back and Pres. Obama didn't even do a fly over of Rhode Island," Caprio also said. "He ignored us and now he's coming into Rhode Island and treating us like an ATM machine."

Obama is in a tough position in the gubernatorial race because independent former Sen. Lincoln Chafee endorsed his presidential bid in 2008. Chafee is currently leading the Rhode Island gubernatorial race by a narrow margin.

Check out the full radio interview here.

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. You'll notice that Hotline On Call got a face lift over the weekend. We like the new look, and we hope you will, too.

The redesign is part of National Journal's relaunch on Monday. Make sure to check out our new website here.

On the radar today: The NRSC makes a $3 million ad buy in California, while Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) plans a $4 million buy; Jerry Brown (D) surges in the governors' race; Joe Manchin (D) finds a new way to distance himself from Pres. Obama; DCCC goes into another new district; Dino Rossi (R) gets biggest boost from outside groups; Pres. Obama heads to Rhode Island and Joe Biden heads to New Hampshire.

California Dreaming: Republicans and Democrats are gearing up for a knock down, drag out fight for Sen. Barbara Boxer's (D) Senate seat this week -- despite new public polling that shows Boxer holding a lead.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is dropping a massive $3 million TV ad buy in California this week, committee sources tell Hotline On Call.

With this ad buy, the NRSC's will have spent nearly $8 million in support of former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina's (R) campaign. The spending is also a sure sign that the NRSC believes it has a good shot of knocking off Boxer.

The ad buy comes one day after a Los Angeles Times/USC poll showed Boxer opening up an eight point lead -- 50 percent to 42 percent -- a major boon to Boxer's campaign.

Republicans are pushing back on that poll, however, saying their internal numbers show the race much tighter. The NRSC is conducting two tracking polls in California, and committee sources say both showed Fiorina only one point down at the end of last week.

Not to be outdone, the Boxer campaign is launching an even larger $4 million dollar ad buy this week, according to campaign sources. The buy should virtually blanket the state's airwaves.

"We are on the air in ten media markets including Spanish language stations," said Rose Kapolczynski, Boxer's campaign manager.

And Fiorina's campaign is also going up with another Fred Davis-produced spot on Monday, complete with ominous voice over and dark visuals. "Our hopes crushed by Washington," the ad says after noting Boxer's support for the economic stimulus plan and other measures. "The legacy of Barbara Boxer."
AD: http://bit.ly/csd9QT

Brown Opens Lead: Also worth noting in that L.A. Times/USC poll, former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) has extended his lead over former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R). Brown is up 13 points on Whitman in the survey, 52 percent to 39 percent. It's telling that Whitman has lost ground in California even by spending massively from her own fortune, while Fiorina has closed in on Boxer despite not having those same resources.
Poll: http://lat.ms/9P9gFT

One Way To Distance Yourself From The President: West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) has been doing everything possible to shed Pres. Obama on the trail. In his latest move, Manchin said over the weekend that he won't endorse Obama for a second term or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.).

Manchin, per Politics Daily: "That's such a hypothetical thing, but basically I think there's two more years that have to play out...Things have got to change. People will have time to evaluate and make a decision over the next two years and four years. I just think there's a lot of correction, a lot of changes, a lot of things that need to be fixed before I would say anything about anybody running for office." It's the first time we've seen a Democrat declining to get behind Obama's re-election... . http://bit.ly/az3P1V

Another New District For The DCCC: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is going up with an ad in Iowa's 1st District -- the first time it has advertised there. The ad targets attorney Ben Lange (R), who is challenging Rep. Bruce Braley (D). Braley, a rising star whose name has been floated as a future DCCC chairman, is in a surprisingly tough race in a district that gave Obama 58 percent of the vote in 2008.

Braley hadn't even been near the radar screen of competitive races until earlier this month, and the Cook Political Report moved the race from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic last week. Another sign Braley could be in trouble: Bill Clinton is campaigning for him on Friday.
DCCC ad: http://bit.ly/bSZjKA

Every potential candidate will say they're focused on the midterm elections, but the race for the chairmanship of the Republican National Committee is well under way, as chairman Michael Steele trolls for votes and his rivals look to consolidate their opposition.

According to estimates by some of the committee's 168 members, and those who understand how the committee works, Steele begins his re-election bid -- should he decide to pursue one -- with between 40 and 60 votes solidly in his camp and another 40 to 60 votes firmly in opposition. The remaining 48 to 88 voters ultimately will determine whether the controversial chairman stays or goes.

Steele has been actively engaged in tending to his base, and to the remaining voters on the national committee. A 48-state bus tour, which kicked off in mid-September, has given Steele the opportunity to meet with RNC members in their home communities. Though billed as an effort to fire up the party's base, the tour also is giving Steel a chance to solidify his.

Steele also has spread what money the RNC has in a way that could benefit him. While he's given plenty to battleground states, he's also invested in state organizations that don't ordinarily receive national attention. Steele transferred $20,000 to the Northern Mariana Islands Republican Party in 2009 and $15,000 to the Guam GOP in September.

Last week, the RNC also transfered $5,000 to the U.S. Virgin Islands state party, RNC communications director Doug Heye confirmed. Warren Cole, the executive director of the USVI party, didn't respond to several emails seeking comment.

The Island parties are key to Steele's re-election bid. Guam, American Samoa, the Virgin Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands and Puerto Rico each represent 3 votes on the RNC. Along with Hawaii, those 18 members tend to cast ballots as a bloc -- they all voted for Steele on the final ballot in 2009.

This year, they make up between a quarter and just under half the votes Steele currently can count on. And the money and the attention each state party has received from the chairman has demonstrated his commitment to holding his island bloc. Steele strategists believe keeping the island votes on his side is essential to his path to re-election. Without those votes, Steele advisors say, he is unlikely to win another term.

He has visited Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The RNC held its first-ever meeting in Hawaii, last January. And the RNC pays Fred Radewagen, the husband of American Samoa's national committeewoman, as a consultant.

This week's National Journal Political Insiders poll finds that both Democratic and Republican operatives are divided on what outcome of the midterm elections would be best for Pres. Obama. Asked to pick which option would be best for Obama: Democrats keep the House and the Senate; Democrats lose the house, but keep the Senate; or Democrats lose the House and the Senate, just over half -- 51 percent -- of the 109 Democratic Insiders who responded said the best option for Obama would be the keep both the House and Senate. But at the same time, 35 percent said that losing the House but maintaining control of the Senate would work best for the President while another 14 percent said losing both chambers would be the best outcome.

Reflecting the majority sentiment that keeping control of both the House and Senate would serve Obama best, one Democratic Insider said, "It's the only way he can move anything on his agenda. Hoping for anything else is incredibly crass and shortsighted." And if the President and his team were thinking what might be best for his re-election two years down the road, another Democratic Insider observed, "Republican control of Congress will mean nothing will change in D.C., and Barack Obama needs to be the candidates of change to win in 2012."

Republican Insiders were almost evenly split on which of three electoral outcomes was best for Obama: a small plurality -- 37 percent -- said losing both chambers would serve his interests best, while 35 percent said losing the House while maintaining the Senate would aid the President. As much as they hope to recapture both chambers on Niov. 2, Republican Insiders acknowledged that a GOP congressional majority could be a useful foil for Obama. "Losing the House will give Obama something to run against," said one GOP Insider. "And [Speaker] Boehner (D-Ohio) will give him plenty of opportunities to do just that." Echoed another GOP Insider on how the President could gain by losing: "He needs something to shoot at and the Republicans seem ready to stand up with a bull's eye on their chests."

For all the results and comments in this week's Insiders Poll click here.

With nonparty campaign organizations spending millions on television ads to attack rival candidates this year, Democratic and Republican operatives agree that the centrality of their respective national party committees is waning, according the results of the latest National Journal Insiders Poll. Asked whether the rise of nonparty spending in this midterm cycle will erode the importance of their national party committees in future elections, 71 percent of the 109 Democratic Insiders who participated in the poll this week said that it would. Similarly, 65 percent of the 106 Republican Insiders who responded said that their national campaign committees will lose some importance as a result of the rise of the nonparty groups.

"It is simply a matter of math," said one Democratic Insider. "The percentage of all political dollars spent by the national committees will decrease." A Republican Insider agreed: "Once large donors get used to not giving through the parties, they won't go back."

Democratic and Republican Insiders also attributed the decline of the parties to changes in the campaign finance laws which have placed restrictions on the ability of the national party committees to raise funds, especially so-called soft money -- unlimited contributions from wealthy individuals and money from union and corporate treasuries. That has been an article of faith among Republicans since the enactment of the McCain-Feingold legislation in 2002.

"This is a direct result of McCain-Feingold, and unless the law is amended party committees will diminish in significance," warned a Republican Insider. Another Republican Insider scoffed at the impulse of campaign watchdogs who oppose loosening the restrictions on contributions to the national parties: "Why reformers think limitations should be put on the only source of funding with full disclosure and a label on the ballot is beyond all logic."

Indeed, a Democratic Insider noted the irony that while McCain-Feingold was supposed to reduce the role of money in politics, "It killed political parties while it encouraged the rise of outside interests."

For all the results and comments in this week's Insiders Poll click here.

What we at The Hotline took away from this week:

-- Looking for an October Surprise? Take a peek at the Minnesota and Maine gubernatorial races. In each race, third party candidates made noteworthy gains this week. In Maine, independent candidate Eliot Cutler came on strong, landing the backing of the Bangor Daily News and registering numbers in some recent polls that suggest he is inching up on former state House Speaker Libby Mitchell (D) and Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R). The strongest sign that Cutler is a real threat? The Republican Governors Association, who thus far has focused its fire on Mitchell, has taken notice of Cutler, hitting both the independent and Mitchell in a TV ad released this week.

In Minnesota, Independence Party nominee Tom Horner landed the endorsement of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, and picked up some Democratic and GOP endorsements. Though likely not as much of a threat to win as Cutler, Horner can still make his mark on the race if he affects the strategies of former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) and state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) down the stretch. And if you're still not convinced, just ask a former governor named Jesse Ventura if a third party candidate can compete in Minnesota.

-- Republicans have a better chance than you think of winning the Senate. Colorado and Pennsylvania still lean in their favor. The GOP is growing more optimistic about ousting Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) Nevada, while California and Washington are looking more and more winnable by the day. One glimmer of hope for Democrats: West Virginia.

-- In the Nevada Senate race, it's all about the turnout. There are so few undecided voters in this highly polarizing race that it may not even matter that Republican Sharron Angle's week included the Canadian ambassador demanding an apology for her implication that terrorists can come to the U.S. from Canada, a group of Hispanic students demanding an apology for her saying they look more Asian than Hispanic to her, and being perhaps the last politician in Nevada to condemn an ad telling Latinos not to vote.

-- Attorney General Jack Conway's (D) Aqua Buddha ad hitting ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) has been demolished by the media, but it's still unclear how the ad is being received in Kentucky. The race has tightened, though Paul seems to have about a five point lead on Conway. With the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee still spending in the state and Bill Clinton scheduling a new rally with Conway for Nov. 1, Democrats clearly still think the seat is gettable.

-- Colorado GOP nominee Ken Buck should go into hiding. Really, go away, sit in a corner and do nothing for the next week and a half. He'll probably win if he does that, providing his camp handles the rest of the unending "Buck clarifies comments on..." stories halfway decently. But Buck is his own worse enemy, especially when it comes to staying on his "jobs" message. It may be impossible for him to keep quiet long enough to pull off the win.

-- Early partisan voting is not looking good for Democrats in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Florida -- three states with either pivotal Senate or governor's races. And that's not counting the fact that a greater number of Democrats could crossover and vote for the Republican in some of those races -- Pennsylvania GOP gubernatorial contender Tom Corbett, for example, has some crossover appeal.

-- Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) made news this week when he loaned his campaign $200,000 for the stretch run. It's unusual that an incumbent -- particularly one who is chair of the House Finance Committee -- would be in that position, but he's not alone. In this pre-general fundraising report period, four Democratic incumbents, including Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) and Dina Titus (D-Nev.), were forced to dip into their personal bank accounts. The broad playing field has stretched national Democratic resources, and is forcing some Democrats to find other avenues for cash.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee outraised its Democratic counterpart in the first two weeks of October. The NRSC raised $6.2 million from October 1 to 13 while the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raised $5.7 million.

The October fundraising is a sure sign of momentum for GOP. Both Republican committees outraised their Democratic opponents during the first two weeks of October. The National Republican Congressional Committee reported $5.2 million to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's $4.9 million.

In both instances the Republicans had been outraised by the Democratic committees in September. In fact, the DSCC nearly doubled the NRSC's haul last month.

Even though the Republicans raised more, both committees still trail their Democratic counterparts in cash on hand. The DSCC has $14.4 million in its bank account while the NRSC has $11.8 million, indicating the Democrats are well funded in their defense of their Senate majority.

Similarly on the House side, the DCCC has $25 million cash on hand while the NRCC has $11.2 million. The DCCC also took out a $17 million line of credit that it has yet to tap into.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi raised less money for her own re-election bid, and has less money on hand, than a little-known Republican businessman running a longshot bid against her.

Pelosi raised $42,908 between October 1 and October 13 and had $176,738 in the bank. Businessman John Dennis (R) raised $240,764 in those 13 days, according to reports filed with the FEC. Dennis ended the period with $214,877 on hand.

It's the second fundraising period in a row in which Dennis has outraised the sitting speaker. Between July 1 and September 30, Dennis pulled in a whopping $1.16 million, while Pelosi raised $303,000.

Then again, Pelosi doesn't need a lot of cash to win her district, centered in ultra liberal San Francisco. Pres. Obama took 85 percent of the vote in California's 8th District in 2008, and Pelosi has never taken less than 72% of the vote. In 2008, the Republican running against Pelosi took just 10% of the vote.

Instead of raising money for her own campaign, Pelosi has spent her time raising big bucks for the DCCC and for Democratic candidates around the country. Pelosi had contributed at least $650,000 to the DCCC through September 30, and she's contributed millions more to candidates across the country.

With little over a week left until Election Day, the Sunday shows are ramping up their coverage of what the electoral map might look like come Nov. 3rd. "Meet the Press" will sit down with Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele to discuss the GOP's strategy for the next week while CBS will talk with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) to examine how the Democrats plan to hold onto the House. "This Week" speaks with Democratic National Committee Chair Tim Kaine to discuss the Democrats' overall ground game and CNN's Candy Crowley hosts a Florida gubernatorial debate on a special "State of the Union."

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts RNC Chair Michael Steele, New York Times' David Brooks, Washington Post's E.J. Dionne, former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN), MSNBC's Rachel Maddow and CNBC's Rick Santelli.
Face the Nation hosts former Bush adviser Karl Rove and DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen.
This Week hosts DNC Chair Tim Kaine, former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Hugh Shelton.
Fox News Sunday hosts former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) and West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D).
State of the Union hosts Florida Senate candidates Marco Rubio (R), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I) debate in Tampa.

Other Weekend Shows

Political Capital features Vice Pres. Joe Biden and Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) (Bloomberg, FRI, 6:30pm).
Washington Week features Washington Post's Karen Tumulty, Los Angeles Times' Doyle McManus, AP's Charles Babington and New York Times' Kate Zernike (PBS, FRI, 8pm).

There are two intra-party fights going on in the South Carolina's governor's race, though only one will likely have a significant impact on the election results.

State Democrats are upset with the Democratic National Committee and Democratic Governors Association for not spending money to support state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D). Local Democrats argue Sheheen is in prime position to pull off a major upset over state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) but may come up short because of insufficient funding. Haley outraised Sheheen $2.16 million to $1.8 million during the last reporting period and sports a $700,000 to $534,000 cash on hand advantage entering the home stretch.

Meanwhile, a group of Palmetto State Republicans is questioning Haley's transparency and values. The leader of the group, former state party vice chair Cyndi Mosteller, has specifically mentioned affair accusations leveled against Haley by Gov. Mark Sanford's (R) former spokesperson Will Folks and has also criticized Haley for consistently late tax payments.

The latter fight will likely do less damage to Haley's chances than the lack of national Democratic money will hurt Sheheen. The Republican Governors Association has compounded Sheheen's problems by dumping $750,000 into the state on behalf of Haley, which included a 30-second TV ad tying Sheheen to Pres. Obama. The commander-in-chief sports a 39 percent approval rating in South Carolina, according to a Winthrop University poll conducted this month.

Many jaws dropped last week when the news broke that GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle had raised $14.4 million in the third quarter. There was a great deal of attention paid to Angle's high burn rate -- dollars spent versus dollars raised. But, there are far more interesting numbers in Angle's FEC report.

She raised $7,816,627 in unitemized contributions; donations of $200 or less, or 54 percent of her total contributions. For the sake of argument, let's say the average contribution was $75, thus 104,222 people donated to Angle.

Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid didn't fare as well. Of the $1,975,841 he raised for the quarter, $246,935 was in unitemized contributions, or 12.5 percent. In fact, of the $20.1 million Reid has raised for the cycle, just $1.5 million was in small contributions.

And, about that burn rate: Angle's was in fact high; the campaign spent nearly $12.1 million for a burn rate of 84 percent. But Reid's burn rate was higher. While he took in $1,975,841, the campaign spent $7,765,836, for a burn rate of 393 percent. Granted, he started the quarter with $8.94 million, compared to Angle, who had just $1.8 million in the bank on July 1. The simple truth is that burn rates should be high in the third and fourth quarters.

The National Republican Congressional Committee reported raising more money than its Democratic counterpart for the month of October.

In their pre-general election FEC filings late Thursday, the NRCC reported having raised $5.2 million from October 1 to 13. The Democratic Congressional Committee raised more than $4.9 million.

The NRCC's report comes as many Republican challengers also posted a strong two weeks of fundraising -- a sign that the momentum is squarely in the GOP's direction.

The DCCC still has several advantages in the money game, however. It has nearly $25 million cash on hand, significantly more than the NRCC's $11.2 million. The DCCC has been saving its money for the final two weeks of the campaign.

The Democrats also reported taking out a $17 million line of credit to boost its efforts in run up to Election Day. It did not, however, dip into that line of credit during the first two weeks of the month.

Both committees are burning through money at a fast clip, but the DCCC has spent faster in October. The Democrats spent nearly $22 million during that period, while the NRCC dished out nearly $13 million.

House Republican challengers continue to show impressive fundraising strength in the final stretch of the election, with 34 of the 56 most vulnerable House Democrats getting outraised by their Republican challengers, from October 1-13.

The late fundraising tallies are another sign that the Republican momentum is only growing, and the party's momentum is being reflected in a surge of grassroots donations to GOP challengers.

The fundraising continues a trend from third FEC quarter reports earlier this month, where 44 Democratic incumbents were outraised by their Republican challengers.

As always, some Republican numbers jump off the page. Republican Kristi Noem (S.D.) continued her furious fundraising pace, hauling in $275,000 in her challenge to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D). Herseth Sandlin only reported raising a mere $59,000. Noem now has double what the congresswoman has in the bank for the final stretch -- $502,000 to $225,000, respectively. That's an ominous sign for Herseth-Sandlin's re-election prospects.

Democratic firebrand and fundraising dynamo Alan Grayson (Fla). was outraised by former state Sen. Daniel Webster (R), who has been a poor fundraiser thus far. Webster raised $395,000 in the first two weeks of October, while Grayson reported having raised $295,000 -- but that included a $95,000 loan. Grayson still has a $814,000 to $340,000 cash on hand advantage.

House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank's (D-Mass.) challenger, Republican Sean Bielat raised a stunning $654,000 in the two weeks, more than doubling Frank's tally.

Several Republicans still posted disappointing numbers, given the environment. Rep. Lincoln Davis (D-Tenn.), who has recently become a top GOP target, brought in $243,000. That's significantly more than Republican challenger Scott DesJarlais' $53,000. Davis has a $385,000 to $3,500 cash on hand advantage in the final stretch.

Stay tuned to House Race Hotline this afternoon for the complete list.

Updated, 12:35 p.m.

Good Friday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: the Democratic base coming home in Pennsylvania; yet another PAC wading into the election; the Times dives into the Chamber's finances; Raul Labrador (R-Idaho) becomes first candidate to pull his own ad; the DGA keeps the pressure on Brian Dubie (R) in Vermont; Russ Feingold (D) gets his last shot at Ron Johnson (R); and Barney Frank's (D-Mass.) challenger posts a big haul.

Democratic Base Coming Home In Pa.: A new Quinnipiac poll on the Pennsylvania gubernatorial points to why the Senate race in the state is tightening: The Democratic base is tuning in. In the new poll, Republican Tom Corbett's once 15 point lead over Democrat Dan Onorato has shrunk to five points -- 49 percent to 44 percent. That's consistent with the closing we saw in the Quinnipiac poll of the Senate race yesterday.

That suggests that the closing in the Senate race - Quinnipiac found Republican Pat Toomey leading by three, a much narrower margin than in the past - is attributable more to the Democratic base coming home, rather than any individual campaign strengths or weaknesses from Democrat Joe Sestak and Toomey. Indeed, the Quinnipiac poll showed President Obama's approval ticking upward a bit among likely voters, and Sestak carrying the overwhelming share of registered Democrats.

But independents are still breaking heavily towards Toomey, 56%-35%, and for Corbett 58-32%. If those numbers hold -- and the significant GOP edge in early voting holds up -- it's still a tough race in a very tough year for both Pennsylvania Democrats. http://bit.ly/bEbnTK

Bielat's Big Haul: Sean Bielat, House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank's (D-Mass.) challenger, raised a stunning $653,000 in the first two weeks of October. Wow.

Frank hauled in an also impressive $250,000 during that time period. Frank has $649,000 in the bank, while Bielat has $462,000.

Frank is leading 49 percent to 37 percent in a new WPRI poll. The encouraging sign for Bielat: Under 50 percent isn't where Frank wants to be at this point. http://bit.ly/chzA1F

Cue The Democratic ICYMIs: The New York Times has an explosive piece detailing multi-million dollar contributions from corporations to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to fund their political operations. They include $2 million from Prudential Financial, $1.7 million from Dow Chemical and millions from Goldman Sachs, Chevron Texaco and Aegon, a company based in the Netherlands. From the Times: "These records show that while the chamber boasts of representing more than three million businesses, and having approximately 300,000 members, nearly half of its $140 million in contributions in 2008 came from just 45 donors. Many of those large donations coincided with lobbying or political campaigns that potentially affected the donors." http://nyti.ms/dosHrK

The counterpoint to the story: The Wall Street Jounral reports that labor groups are actually outspending the Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads combined, a useful reminder that this election is being "bought" on both sides. http://bit.ly/bu2t0g

Another PAC To Keep Track Of: The "Ending Spending Fund," a group that popped up earlier this week when it filed a $594,000 ad buy targeting Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), is wading into targeted House races as well. The group filed $531,000 worth of ads early Friday morning, including another $268,000 on what appears to be a TV ad and Internet ads against Reid. They are also targeting House Budget Chairman John Spratt (D-S.C.) with $186,000 worth of ads. The group is also going after Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas) and airing an ad in support of Rep. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho).

Labrador Pulls Ad: Republican Raul Labrador earned the distinction of being the first candidate this cycle to pull an ad before it even went on the air. Labrador, whose challenge to Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick has gone roughly, planned to air an ad that featured a clip of Minnick making a clear misstatement in a 2008 debate. Minnick inadvertently said he favored a "middle class tax increase," when he meant to say, "cut." He corrected himself immediately, but Labrador's ad only featured the misstatement. What's more, evidently the footage was copyrighted.

Paging Alan Grayson... http://bit.ly/df1Tqz

Democrats are facing an electoral landscape more inhospitable than anyone could have imagined just months ago, according to new survey data from the Pew Research Center.

The Pew Research Center survey released Thursday found many troubling signs for Democrats. Among them, Republicans now hold significant advantages among both men and women, as well as in the 77 most competitive House districts.

First, the toplines. Among likely voters, Republicans have a 10 point advantage on the generic ballot test -- 50 percent to 40 percent - up from a seven-point edge last month. If the Democratic base is coming home, the Republican base is intensifying further.

Among independent voters, Republicans also have a significant advantage. They are breaking for the GOP by a 19-point margin, 49 percent to 30 percent.

Drilling down into the districts where the battle for the House is being contested, things get worse for Democrats. In the 77 most competitive House districts, Republicans hold a 12 point advantage among likely voters -- 51 percent to 39 percent. These numbers indicate that prediction of a major Republican landslide - greater than the GOP's gains in the 1994 elections are a very real possibility.

The Pew numbers from "safe" Democratic-held districts are also alarming for the majority party, with Democrats holding just a 51 to 41 percent lead. In safe Republican districts, the GOP enjoys a wide 58 percent to 31 percent advantage.

CONNECTICUT SENATE: Toss Up to Lean D - Although former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon managed to close the gap with Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, Democrats' relentless attacks on McMahon and professional wrestling have allowed Blumenthal to regain his advantage.

MISSOURI SENATE: Toss Up to Lean R - Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has worked to portray GOP Rep. Roy Blunt as a crooked political insider, but voters aren't buying the message and Blunt has established a comfortable lead.

WISCONSIN SENATE: Toss Up to Lean R - Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold is used to running as an outsider and a reformer, but Republican Ron Johnson has established himself as the true outsider in the race. Feingold's support in recent surveys is in the mid 40s, a dangerous place for any incumbent.

The Republican National Committee wrote a $15,000 check to Guam in September, spending money in a U.S. territory in advance of an election in which the party is already hunting for new sources of cash.

The RNC made the transfer on September 24, according to reports filed late Wednesday with the FEC. That money will go to help elect Sen. Eddie Calvo (R), who is running to replace term-limited Gov. Felix Camacho (R) in the island territory's governor election.

RNC communications director Doug Heye said the money went to Guam because the island falls in to the party's D2H program, a campaign launched by chairman Michael Steele aimed at winning races in all 50 states, from Delaware to Hawaii.

The spending is sure to raise questions among Republicans engaged in the 2010 midterm elections, given that neither party has historically funded any of their affiliates in the U.S. territories. And it's not the first time the RNC has given money to the territories; in late 2009, the RNC transferred $20,000 to the Northern Mariana Islands.

The U.S. territories -- Guam, the NMI, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and American Samoa -- play an important role in the RNC. Under party rules, they each get three votes at RNC meetings, the same number of votes of any given U.S. state. That means the 5 island territories play as influential a role as the combined delegations of California, Texas, New York, Florida and Illinois, the nation's five largest states. Island territories may in fact be more influential, given that their delegates have tended to vote as a bloc in RNC elections.

That helped Steele, who won the island voting bloc during his initial run in 2009. Though aides to Steele have denied they cut any kind of deal in order to secure those votes, Steele has become the first RNC chairman to make official visits to Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. The RNC also sent two top staffers to Guam last year; state and local development director Shannon Reeves has visited the island nation of 178,000 twice in the last two years.

Heye said the expenditure was not part of a possible re-election campaign. Steele has said he will not make any re-election announcement until after Election Day. Steele is currently in the closing days of a bus tour that will hit all 48 continental states, a tour on which he has met with many RNC members whose votes he will need if he does decide to run for re-election in 2011.

In September, the RNC raised $12.3 million and spent about $13.5 million, much of it on turnout operations. The party had $3.4 million in the bank as of October 1 and carried a $4.6 million debt. The party transferred hundreds of thousands of dollars to various state affiliates, including $118,000 to the Pennsylvania GOP, $151,000 to the Ohio Republican Party, $102,000 to two GOP committees in New Mexico and $198,000 to the Florida GOP.

The RNC has already secured $15 million in lines of credit for last-minute spending in advance of Election Day, and records filed with the FEC show the party has already drawn $2.5 million of that money. An RNC source tells The Hotline the committee has drawn $5 million on those lines of credit to date.

As expected, the negative ads in the most competitive Senate contests have ratcheted up a notch in these final days of the campaign.

Both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee went up with very hard-hitting and effective ads on Thursday.

Following up on Julie's column about the Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway's (D) controversial NoZe ad, the NRSC has aired an ad illustrating liberal pundits panning the spot.

The DSCC has also turned up the heat on Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in the Illinois Senate debate. In an ad titled "Honor" that features testimonials, they hit Kirk both for his previous misstatements about his military service and his record in Congress.

After months of lagging behind ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) in the Kentucky Senate race, Attorney General Jack Conway (D) shook up the race last weekend when he released an ad that attacked Paul's religious values.

The controversial spot -- whose narrator asks "Why was Rand Paul a member of a secret society that called the Holy Bible 'a hoax,' that was banned for mocking Christianity and Christ? Why did Rand Paul once tie a woman up, tell her to bow down before a false idol, and say his God was 'Aqua Buddha'?" --earned Conway plenty of media attention, but it's been overwhelmingly negative. The ad was the maneuver of a campaign that needed something big to happen -- since the Aqua Buddha story came out in early August and Conway opted not to run an ad then, it seems clear that this was a Hail Mary thrown with two weeks left in the campaign.

The ad has largely been panned so far, even by his own party. Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill (Mo.) called the ad "very dangerous" and said it "came close to the line" of inappropriateness.

More broadly, though, the ad raises the question of whether a religious attack can be politically effective. The most recent examples show that history is not on Conway's side.

One of the rare examples where a religious ad has been used effectively was late Gov. Bob Casey's (D) '86 infamous "guru ad." "Is Bill Scranton qualified to be governor?" the narrator asked. "Scranton joined transcendental meditation and became a disciple of the Maharishi Mahesh Yogi. Time magazine said Scranton traveled the world evangelizing for transcendental meditation. And he said his goal was to bring transcendental meditation to state government." The ad, produced by James Carville, was widely credited with Casey's narrow win after having lagged in polls.

But in recent years, religious attack ads have been flops.

Despite a growing chorus of Democrats who have expressed reservations about her leadership, Democratic Congressional Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said Thursday he believed that Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will be Speaker in the next Congress.

Speaking at a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor, Van Hollen said Pelosi has been working hard to ensure Democrats retain the House on Election Day.

Pelosi "has an enormous reservoir of good will among the Democratic caucus," Van Hollen said. He added that he is "confident that Nancy Pelosi will be the Speaker of the House."

The remarks come as an increasingly large group of Democrats have sought to distance themselves from Pelosi on the campaign trail. By The Hotline's tally, four incumbent Democrats have said flatly that they won't back Pelosi next year. Another three Democratic House candidates have said the same.

Another 11 incumbent Democrats have said they might not support her, as have three Democratic House candidates.

Few the complete list below.

Democrats Who Won't Back Pelosi
Rep. Bobby Bright (AL-02)
Rep. Jim Marshall (GA-08)
Rep. Jason Altmire (PA-04)
Rep. Mike McIntyre (NC-07)
TN-08 Roy Herron
TN-06 Ben Carter
LA-03 Ravi Sangisetty

Democrats Who Have Said They May Not Back Pelosi
Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR-04)
Rep. Walt Minnick (ID-01)
Rep. John Adler (NJ-03)
Rep. Scott Murphy (NY-20)
Rep. Travis Childers (MS-01)
Rep. John Barrow (GA-12)
Rep. Gene Taylor (MS-04)
Rep. Chet Edwards (TX-17)
Rep. Joe Donnelly (IN-02)
Rep. Larry Kissell (NC-08)
Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD-AL)
IN-03 Tom Hayhurst
WV-01 Mike Oliverio
AR-02 Joyce Elliott

Buoyed by new poll numbers, Republicans are ramping up their efforts to capture the Massachusetts House seat vacated by Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt.

The race between state Rep. Jeff Perry (R) and Norfolk County District Attorney William Keating (D) represents a majority maker race for Republicans -- one where, if they win, it could indicate the beginning of a Republican landslide on Election Night.

According to an internal Republican campaign poll conducted October 17 to 18 obtained by Hotline On Call, Perry is now leading 42 percent to 36 percent. As always, internal campaign polls should be taken with the appropriate context - but the fact that both parties are spending valuable resources here indicates it's a close race.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is also shifting messaging in the race for the final days of the campaign, choosing to focus on local report from 2005 that found that Keating's District Attorney office cut several plea bargains in rape cases -- a claim that Democrats immediately criticized.

But Republicans aren't going to drop the issue. "We plan to make sure voters are aware of Bill Keating's disturbing record of copping pleas with campaign contributors and letting violent rapists off the hook, and that includes using this on TV in an ad," said a GOP strategist familiar with NRCC ad making.

Keating's campaign immediately responded, saying that the NRCC is trying to distract from another explosive story on Wednesday: A woman who was illegally stripped search by a police unit under Perry's command in 1991 broke her silence, and said that Perry could have stopped the assault.

"This is nothing but a desperate and shameless ploy by Jeff Perry's Washington friends," Keating spokesman Steve Crawford said. "When you are a DA you understand that you are there to protect the public and protect survivors and you do that by seeking and getting the strongest conviction possible. Bill Keating's record of protecting survivors and putting away predators stands on its own."

Democrats are also pointing two an independent public poll released earlier this week that found Keating leading Perry by a 46 percent to 43 percent margin.

Despite Wednesday's story, Republicans clearly sense an opportunity. For one, Democrats have been hitting Perry over the 1991 sexual assault story for months now in hopes of disqualifying him from the race, but it doesn't seem to have made a significant dent in this poll numbers.

The NRCC has ramped up its media buys in the district. Last week, it purchased $275,000 on air time, significantly more than it has spent previously. In total, it has spent $421,000 on the race so far.

Democrats have also targeted the seat as an important one to defend. They have actually outspent Republicans here -- a sign that the seat is on both parties list of top priorities. The Democratic congressional Campaign Committee has spent $484,000 on the race so far.

Massachusetts is also the home to Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who is facing a tougher-than-expected fight from Republican Sean Bielat in his solidly-Democratic seat. Currently there are not any Republicans in the 10-seat Massachusetts delegation in the House.

Good Thursday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. What to watch today: American Crossroads getting big money from two Texans; Pres. Obama says Aloha for Neil Abercrombie; a statistical dead heat in Pennsylvania Senate; a South Dakota House draw; SEIU calls Sharron Angle "dangerous;" GOP runs on "change" in Pennsylvania; and MoveOn.org makes its move.

Call 'Em Texas Crossroads: The American Crossroads filed with the FEC late Wednesday and, as expected, their fundraising was stunning. In 43 days -- from September 1 to October 13 -- the group raised $15 million. (Keep in mind this doesn't account for "Crossroads GPS," their non profit organization that has spent millions and files with the IRS).

More striking: $10 million of that came from two people or their companies. Houston homebuilder Bob Perry -- yes, the same Bob Perry that help fund the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth -- gave $7 million during that time span.

Robert Rowling, a oil and hotel magnate from Irving, contributed $1.5 million to the group. His company, TRT Holdings Inc., also chipped in $1.5 million.

One other name that jumps out: Donald Trump gave $50,000.

Perry, a longtime big GOP donor, has been particularly busy this cycle; he also recently gave the RGA $3.5 million. http://bit.ly/cWM5Vu.

And who is Robert Rowling? Check out this 2008 Dallas Morning News profile: http://bit.ly/bvcYi5

Aloha From The President: Pres. Obama has cut his third ad of the cycle, this time for former Rep. Neil Abercrombie's (D) Hawaii gubernatorial campaign. Obama, who grew up in the Aloha State, speaks directly to the camera in the ad.

"Aloha," Obama says. "My friend Neil Abercrombie is the inspiring leader that Hawaii needs right now. He has the experience, independence and character to be a great governor."

It's only the third ad Obama has recorded this election cycle --two in his "home" states of Illinois and Hawaii, and one in New Orleans, Louisiana. That's all you need to know about the president's unpopularity heading into these midterms.

Abercrombie is running in a tight race against Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R).
AD: http://bit.ly/cveF3d

A Statistical Dead Heat in Pennsylvania: Another poll shows the Pennsylvania Senate race all tied up. The Quinnipiac poll out early Thursday shows former Rep. Pat Toomey leading Rep. Joe Sestak 48% to 46% -- that's within the polls +/- 3 percent margin of error. It's good news for Sestak, but there is still a troubling sign for the Democrat: Independents are backing Toomey by a 21-point (!) margin, 56 percent to 35 percent, in the survey. The base is getting behind Sestak, but he'll have to win many more independents to have a shot at the upset. http://bit.ly/aFDJgl

A Impasse In South Dakota: Neither candidate in the highly competitive South Dakota wants to say who they will back for Speaker if elected. In their debate Wednesday, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) and Republican challenger Kristi Noem both took a pass on the question.

From the Argus Leader: "Both Herseth Sandlin and Noem were asked whether they would vote for their party's leaders for speaker of the House if their party won the majority: Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), for Herseth Sandlin, and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), for Noem. Both had a similar response: They didn't know whom they would vote for because they don't know who is running for speaker in the next Congress." Let's call that a draw. http://bit.ly/bfLRjI

PHILADELPHIA - Whom do you support: Sarah Palin and Christine O'Donnell, or Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi?

That was the choice Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D) left voters with Wednesday night at the National Constitution Center during their first debate of the general election, a contest marked by both men's unrelenting efforts to characterize his opponent as out-of-touch extremists.

For Toomey, this strategy meant tying Sestak to his support of every major Democratic initiative of the last two years, including financial and auto bailouts, the economic stimulus and the health care reform -- measures Toomey said have crippled the country's economy.

"He voted for every item on that agenda, and his only criticism is they didn't go far enough," said Toomey, who, unlike many of his TV ads, decided to forgo mentioning the President and Speaker of the House directly and instead referenced the "extreme Democratic agenda."

Discontent with the Democratic Party's agenda has been felt as strongly in normally left-leaning Pennsylvania as it has in many states, with the political climate endangering as many as eight of the party's incumbent congressmen.

Sestak countered by linking Toomey to Palin and O'Donnell, the Delaware Republican Senate nominee who has particular resonance in the Keystone State because Delaware is within the Philadelphia media market. He cited both by name while criticizing Toomey for his stance against abortion-rights, an issue that could hurt the former Republican congressman in the state's moderate, vote-rich southeast region.

"Palin, Toomey, O'Donnell -- they all of them want to overturn Roe v. Wade," Sestak said. "I believe those life decisions of a family should be made within a family. I don't think government should intervene."

The reelection prospects of 15 more Democratic incumbents are less certain. As outside groups ratchet up their involvement in most of these races, several more move to the Toss Up column. House Editor David Wasserman notes, "With today's changes, there are now 23 Democratic seats in the Lean Republican and Likely Republican columns, and just three Republican seats in the Lean Democratic column. Even if Democrats were to defy the historical odds and win a bare majority of the 47 seats in the Toss Up column, they would fall several seats short of holding the House."

AZ-03: OPEN (Shadegg) Likely R to Lean R
AZ-07: Raul Grijalva (D) Likely D to Toss Up
FL-12: OPEN (Putnam) Likely R to Lean R
FL-22: Ron Klein (D) Lean D to Toss Up
IL-10: OPEN (Kirk) Toss Up to Lean D
IN-02: Joe Donnelly (D) Lean D to Toss Up
IA-01: Bruce Braley (D) Likely D to Lean D
IA-02: Dave Loebsack (D) Likely D to Lean D
KS-03: OPEN (Moore) Lean R to Likely R
MA-10: OPEN (Delahunt) Lean D to Toss Up
MN-08: Jim Oberstar (D) Likely D to Lean D
MO-03: Russ Carnahan (D) Likely D to Lean D
MO-04: Ike Skelton (D) Lean D to Toss Up
MS-04: Gene Taylor (D) Lean D to Toss Up
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D) Toss Up to Lean R
NY-20: Scott Murphy (D) Lean D to Toss Up
NY-22: Maurice Hinchey (D) Likely D to Lean D
OH-06: Charlie Wilson (D) Lean D to Toss Up
PA-04: Jason Altmire (D) Likely D to Lean D
TN-04: Lincoln Davis (D) Lean D to Toss Up

The roller coaster ride that is the Ohio governor's race took another turn on Wednesday, as new polling showed Gov. Ted Strickland (D) taking a narrow lead over former Rep. John Kasich (R).

The CNN/Time poll found Strickland leading Kasich by a 48 percent to 47 percent margin among likely voters -- within the survey's +/- 3.5 percent margin of error. That's a significant change from the last poll, which found Kasich leading 51 percent to 44 percent a month ago.

Democrats have been claiming that the Ohio governor's has been closing since polling a month ago showed Kasich opening up double-digit lead. Democrats are, as usual, focused on Ohio and Strickland may have benefited from Pres. Obama's large rally in Cleveland last weekend.

The CNN/Time poll also found businessman Rick Scott (R) leading state CFO Alex Sink (D) in the Florida governor's race. Scott is up on Sink by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent, among likely voters. Recent polling has shown this race, which both parties are heavily invested in, to be a toss up.

Both polls were conducted October 15 to 19 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

Former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) is up with a new ad seeking to change the narrative in the Connecticut Senate race by tying Democrat Richard Blumenthal to Sen. Chris Dodd (D) and his Countrywide Financial scandal.

McMahon has never mentioned Dodd in an ad since he quit the race and this 60-second spot is clearly an attempt to tar Blumenthal in the final days of the race by reminding people of Dodd.

"We know about Chris Dodd and his sweetheart deals with Countrywide, but did you know about Dick Blumenthal?" the ad's narrator says. "Blumenthal cut a deal with Countrywide that let the mortgage giant off the hook for billions. A deal that raided the retirement funds of teachers, fireman, policemen and state employees."

If there is one thing you can say about McMahon, it's that she's gutsy. The veracity of the Countrywide Financial charge, as it applies to Blumenthal, has been questioned in local media.

She has also sought to deliver a knockout blow by airing a hard hitting ad on Blumenthal lying about serving in Vietnam.

McMahon, who reported having spent $41.5 million the race so far, needs a game changer at this point. Recent polling has shown Blumenthal beginning to open up a near double-digit lead.

The most nerve-wracking aspect of covering this election's final stages is trying to make sense of late-breaking developments when over 100 competitive House races are simultaneously abuzz.

In 2006, few in Washington noticed that anti-war social worker Carol Shea-Porter (D) had cultivated an effective grassroots network until, of course, she beat moderate GOP Rep. Jeb Bradley by several thousand votes in New Hampshire's 1st District.

In 2008, few Beltway pundits (this one included) picked up on the fact that a scandal involving a GOP Rep. Virgil Goode staffer's use of a congressional office to promote a gay-themed film was getting big play back home in Virginia's 5th District and helping send Tom Perriello (D) to the House. Of course, now that the shoe is on the other foot, Republicans say both Shea-Porter and Perriello are on their way to getting stomped.

In a year as volatile as 2010, big election night surprises are almost inevitable, but most will be preceded by a late-breaking story or "hook" for a Republican challenger. What could those hooks be? In Upstate New York's 22nd District, Republican teacher George Phillips hopes that new video of a mild altercation between Democratic veteran Rep. Maurice Hinchey and a local reporter reinforces some voters' impression of the incumbent as a hotheaded partisan who is past his prime on the stump and in Congress.

In the Sonoran Desert of Arizona's Hispanic-majority 7th District, the hook for GOP physicist Ruth McClung is Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva's unpopular call to boycott Arizona businesses following the passage of the state's controversial immigration law. Although McClung isn't well-funded, GOP Sen. John McCain's decision to cut an endorsement ad for McClung with his own campaign cash could help McClung capitalize on Grijalva's alienation of voters.

The group behind the controversial commercial telling Hispanics in Nevada not to vote isn't shutting down in light of Univision's decision to pull its ads. In fact, it may be broadening its reach.

Robert de Posada, the head of Latinos For Reform, told Hotline On Call Wednesday that the group is currently reevaluating its spending strategy in light of Univision's decision. Among the options are more Spanish ads on other networks and radio, as well as English ads on cable, radio and possibly some network television.

Currently, De Posada is finishing a second ad that he says will be as controversial as the first.

"We're playing with the ad right now," he said. "We have a second ad produced but it's going to pretty much shock people."

And despite of the setback from Univision, De Posada said the group still plans to go on the air in Nevada, California, Washington state and Florida before the election.

De Posada made waves earlier this week when his group aired a Spanish ad in Nevada that told voters not to cast ballots.

"Don't vote this November," the ad's narrator says of Democrats in the spot. "This is the only way to send them a clear message. You can no longer take us for granted."

The ad was subsequently pulled from Univision amid protests from Hispanic leaders.

De Posada said the coverage of the ad has missed the mark. "The whole idea that our campaign is telling people not to vote is inaccurate," he said. "If you look at the substance of the ad, what we're telling Hispanics is that candidates who have done nothing for immigrants can't count on our vote.

Alaska Senate: Once Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski lost her party's nomination in August, the rest of the script was supposed to read like this: Republican attorney Joe Miller cruises to victory, keeping the seat in GOP hands while trouncing Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) and handing Murkowski, who is running as a write-in candidate, a second humiliating defeat. End of story. Except that it has not turned out that way.

Miller has turned out to be a problematic candidate. He's admitted that he once received Medicaid benefits, was terminated as an attorney for the Fairbanks North Star Borough for doing political work on government time, and saw his private security detail arrest and handcuff a local journalist. Meanwhile, McAdams has exceeded expectations as a candidate from his fundraising to his advertising. Murkowski is also running an effective campaign, educating voters to "fill in the bubble and write in her name."

Polling shows Murkowski running even with Miller and many Republicans believe that she might become the first Senate candidate since 1954 to win as a write-in. But, they also fear that Miller and Murkowski could split the GOP vote, creating an opening for McAdams. Regardless, it's a safe bet that the winner won't be called on Election Night.

Pennsylvania Senate: Republican Pat Toomey has carried the frontrunner's mantle for much of this race by virtue of a consistent, though not overwhelming, lead in the polls. But, recent surveys have indicated that Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak is closing the gap. In the last five polls released, Toomey's average lead has shrunk from the high single digits to just three points, well within the margin of error.

New polling of 10 House districts held by sophomore Democrats show a particularly ominous sign for the majority party: In all but two races, the Democratic incumbent is pulling under 45 percent of the vote with two weeks to go to the election.

That statistic is an indication that even Democrats in close races are finding it increasingly difficult to assemble enough support to win as November 2 closes in.

In six of the 10 districts, the Republican challenger is leading the Democratic incumbent. In another two, the race is tied. That leaves two where the Democrat is currently leading.

The polling, conducted by Penn Schoen Berland for The Hill, is another sign that House Democrats are facing long odds for hanging on to the House.

The Republicans who are performing best include Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who is challenging Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.). Guinta leads that matchup by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent.

Similarly, Mississippi state Sen. Alan Nunnelee is up 44 percent to 39 percent on Rep. Travis Childers (D).

Another striking result: ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth (R) is tied at 43 percent with Rep. John Hall (D) in a race that only recently came on the radar of competitive contests.

One Democrat who is leading and above 45 percent, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), just saw the Democratic Congressional Committee pull ad money out of his district.

The Democratic Congressional Committee is spending millions of dollars in key districts around the country on late independent expenditures, demonstrating the districts Democrats believe can be saved from a national wave -- and the members the party believes are already too far behind their Republican rivals to save.

In total, the DCCC spent $13.1 million on independent expenditure advertisements in 59 districts, according to FEC filings made late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Democrats are largely playing defense, while targeting only three Republican-held seats.

Where the DCCC didn't spend money is as indicative as where it did. With two weeks to go, Democrats are using their checkbooks as acknowledgement that nearly a dozen members are beyond saving.

The DCCC did not spend money on behalf of Reps. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Ohio), Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.), Betsy Markey (D-Colo.), Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.), Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) and Steve Kagen (D-Wis.), the filings show. Republicans believe those seven seats are all but guaranteed to fall their way.

Even in some races where Democrats did spend money, their advertising indicates little more than a token effort at salvaging seats that are also likely to fall to the GOP. The DCCC is spending just $30,000 for Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio), who polls show trailing ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (R) by wide margins. That follows reports that the DCCC was pulling out of Driehaus' district.

Democrats are only spending $42,000 on behalf of Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas), who trails businessman Bill Flores (R) in most polling. Rep. Jim Marshall (D), a perpetually vulnerable incumbent in a deeply conservative district in southern Georgia, is getting just $9,000 in assistance, likely for radio advertising, as he faces state Rep. Austin Scott (R). And Rep. John Hall (D-NY), who faces a surprisingly stiff challenge in ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth (R), will benefit from just $83,000 in advertising this week.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. What we're watching today: Trouble in Alaska for the GOP; Republicans spending big on Illinois, Washington state; Joe Sestak (D) leads Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania polling; DNC continues to haul in big bucks; the RNC's accounting problem; Nancy Pelosi's numbers continue to plummet and Pres. Obama heads to Oregon.

GOP Trouble On The Last Frontier? The National Republican Senatorial Committee is spending valuable money on air time for the first time in Alaska, a sign that attorney Joe Miller's (R) bid isn't the sure thing it was believed to be after he scored a primary upset. According to their FEC filings, the NRSC spent $162,000 on a media buy on ads this week supporting Miller.

This spending is undoubtedly a sign that Miller's several missteps in the past couple days (see: Alaska reporter, handcuffs) have national Republicans concerned. This is an unwelcome distraction for them, as the NRSC is spending almost entirely on pickup opportunities otherwise, with the exception of Kentucky. The spending also comes on the heels of recent polling that shows Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) staying competitive with Miller with her write-in campaign.

Other Big GOP Spending: Illinois and Washington are two other states where the NRSC and the conservative American Crossroads are spending big this week. In each state, there are nearly $2 million worth of GOP ad buys. In Illinois, the NRSC dished out $825,000 on ads on Tuesday, the same day that Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) faced off in a debate. Their spending there is boosted by Crossroads GPS, the nonprofit arm of American Crossroads. They spent nearly $1.2 million in Illinois this week.

National Republicans also appear to be very bullish on Dino Rossi's (R) chances against Sen. Patty Murray (D) in Washington. The NRSC spent $940,000 on ads there on Tuesday for this week. Crossroads GPS also filed a $785,000 media buy there on Tuesday. Polls, internal and public, have shown this race tightening in the last week.

Go Time For Sestak: Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) face off for their first general election debate on Wednesday, and Sestak has all the mo' right now. According to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll released Tuesday night, Sestak now leads Toomey 44 percent to 41 percent.

You read that sentence right.

The poll raises the stakes for both candidates tonight. Toomey has to right the ship and Sestak has to stay on offense. Toomey will try to end the current narrative by doing what he's been doing so far: Tie Sestak to legislation like the stimulus and health care and keep him from distancing himself from D.C. As one source in Toomey's camp put it: "We'll call him 'Congressman Sestak' as much as possible, and he'll try to refer to his time as an admiral as much as possible."

Sestak has other things to worry about as well. The Republican Jewish Coalition announced a $1 million Philadelphia TV ad campaign late Tuesday targeting the Democrat. The RJC has targeted Sestak before, but its newest ad is particularly inflammatory.

"He was a mastermind of 9/11, a cold blooded killer," the ad says. "Yet Joe Sestak wanted Khalid Sheikh Mohammed tried in a Pennsylvania court house rather than in a military court."
AD: http://bit.ly/cYFtt6
Poll: http://bit.ly/cS0hP4

Illinois Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R) aggressively vied for the title of fiscal conservative champion during Tuesday night's debate, demonstrating just how sour this midterm electorate views the economy and the administration's spending policies, even in President Obama's home state.

Giannoulias, often criticized for running in President Obama's shadow, did the one thing he could in the name of fiscal conservatism--go after Kirk's support of government spending in Congress. He pointed out Kirk backed former President George W. Bush's budget proposals, which he said "took us from record budget surpluses to record budget deficits. More was added to our national debt in those 8 years than all the administrations in the history of the United States combined."

Playing to the middle class that makes up much of Illinois's swing vote this election, Giannoulias framed Kirk's vote against the stimulus as one "against the largest middle-class tax cut in this country's history," and, echoing Obama's rhetoric, said the bill "helped stop a second Great Depression."

Giannoulias embraced his ties to Obama in the debate, and he'll need the president's backers in his home state to show up in big numbers. While he scoffed when asked whether his role in Washington would simply be a "rubber stamp" for the Obama administration, he later cited his relationship with Obama when asked about the lack of African-American representation in the Senate.

Kirk kept his own distance from his party's activists, highlighting his independent voting record in the House. And he offered only limited praise to the Tea Party, saying he admired its focus on fiscal conservatism.

"I think the Tea Party's focus on fiscal conservatism is good, but if you ask what is my independence from the Republican Party, I've been very independent," Kirk said.

For the first time, Kirk also went on the offensive against claims that he exaggerated his military resume. After apologizing, he argued that Giannoulias' attacks rang hollow because he never served in the military.

"In the rear with the gear." Kirk said, claiming Giannoulias' entire campaign was based on attacks against his military service.

Top officials at the Republican National Committee are engaged in an increasingly public battle over the party's finances, as new reports filed with the FEC show the committee is deeper in debt than initially disclosed.

The new reports, filed late Monday night, show the RNC had just under $4.7 million cash on hand as of September 1, while carrying $2.46 million in debt -- more than twice the $1.2 million debt disclosed when the committee initially filed its August report on September 20. What's more, earlier reports to the FEC have been amended to show previous debts, since paid off, of $4.7 million in June and July. Most of that debt was paid off within weeks, but because outstanding bills existed when reporting periods ended, they are required to be reported as obligations on FEC forms.

Doug Heye, the RNC's communications director, said the committee moved to fix its books quickly. "We are continually working to proactively ensure that we are in full compliance with the law," Heye said.

The amended reports were filed this week, under the signature of RNC Treasurer Randy Pullen. Pullen and RNC chairman Michael Steele have feuded for months over the party's finances, a fight that has divided some of the party's most senior members. Steele and his allies see Pullen as trying to undermine the chairman, while Pullen's supporters say the treasurer has been an important check on sometimes lax oversight of financial procedures.

Several debts have been on the RNC's books for months, the filings show. The party has owed a Napa Valley company $7,751 for bus transportation since May. They have owed Political Media Inc., a Washington-based firm run by internet marketing expert Larry Ward, a total of $27,500 for website development, for the same length of time.

Steele allies have struck back, quietly accusing Pullen of leaking stories and working to undermine Pullen's position among RNC members. In an email sent to Pullen earlier this month, former Maryland GOP chairman John Kane criticized the RNC treasurer for stories about the party's finances that showed up in the press.

"While you may not like Michael Steele, you are doing a great disservice to our party," Kane wrote Pullen, in an email obtained by The Hotline, accusing Pullen of leaking stories to the Washington Times. "You got a problem with Steele, settle it like an adult in December. Until then do your job internally and shut up externally."

With two weeks to go to Election Day, most TV ads are just background noise here at the The Hotline. Occasionally, though, one breaks through.

Former Gov. Jerry Brown's (D) latest ad in the California governor's race did just that. The one-minute ad - which in and of itself is gutsy -- ties former eBay CEO Meg Whitman to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger with steel cables.

The ad features clips of Schwarzenegger, who has dismal approval ratings in California, followed by Whitman saying virtually the same exact words.

It begins by Schwarzenegger -- and Whitman -- saying, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." After a dozen other instances of the two Republicans repeating each other, the ad shows this line from a San Jose Mercury News editorial: "We tried that. It didn't work."

We've seen plenty of ads trying to tie politicians to unpopular officials (see: Every Republican House ad, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi). This is by far the most effective one we've seen and it also highlights the repetitive nature of political stump speeches; undoubtedly one of the reasons why Americans are so turned off by politicians these days.

Check it out below.

Former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) loaned her campaign another $20 million in the third quarter, according to her latest FEC report.

With this extra infusion of cash, the Republican has self-loaned $41.5 million total on her race so far, the most in any Senate race this cycle.

The Republican has never been much of a fundraiser and she only brought in $34,564 from other individuals during the quarter. Meanwhile, she spent $20.7 million over the same three-month period.

McMahon, who is running against Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) is one of the last Senate contenders to release her fundraising totals.

Blumenthal raised $2.1 million (including a $500,000 self-loan) in the quarter and finished September with $1.16 million cash on hand. McMahon has $2.6 million left in the bank.

So-called "Wal-Mart Moms" -- women who have children under 18 and shop at Wal-Mart at least once a month -- are breaking solidly Republican this year, according to polling out Tuesday.

The polling has found that 15 percent to 17 percent of the electorate in key states is composed of these Wal-Mart moms. The label has come to represent working and middle class mothers, a pivotal demographic in recent elections.

The results are yet another sign of an oncoming GOP wave on Election Day.

The surveys were conducted by a Republican firm -- Public Opinion Strategies -- and a Democratic firm -- Momentum Analysis. The two groups first conducted an online nationwide survey in May to identify women that fit the demographic and record a benchmark of their political views. They have since conducted focus groups and telephone surveys.

In this most recent batch, the two firms surveyed 250 Wal-Mart moms in five states -- California, Colorado, Florida, Missouri and Pennsylvania -- from October 7 to 13. Each survey had a margin of error of +/- 6.2 percent.

Some of the key findings: In 2008, Wal-Mart moms were likely to report voting for Pres. Obama and self-identified as Democrats. This year, however, they are leaning toward supporting a Republican for Congress. In all five states, more Wal-Mart Moms now identify as Republicans by statistically significant margins.

In all of these states, a plurality is also supporting Republican contenders for the Senate. A double digit percentage, however, hasn't made up their mind -- suggesting that at least some of this voting bloc is still up for grabs.

Of the five Senate races surveyed, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) is the only Democrat running competitively with Wal-Mart moms, but even she trails Republican Carly Fiorina, 37 to 33 percent.

Pennsylvania Senate contender Pat Toomey performs best of the five Republican Senate candidates tested. Fifty-six percent of Wal-Mart moms are supporting him, compared to 32 percent who are supporting Rep. Joe Sestak (D).

Debate season 2010 has been at fever pitch in October, with close races featuring marquee encounters all across the country. With "sparred," "clashed" and "traded barbs" often dominating post-debate headlines everywhere, it can be difficult to distinguish between those that will immediately influence a race, those that have the potential to change the direction of a contest and those that will not leave much of an imprint.

Several of the most competitive Senate races have been holding debates of late, many of which have been receiving widespread national coverage. Here is a look at six close Senate races that have recently featured debate and how influential they were in each contest:

The Newsmakers:

October 17 Colorado Senate Debate: Debating before a national audience on NBC's "Meet The Press," Republican nominee Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D) expressed disagreement over Pres. Obama's policies, outside spending and the Tea Party. But it was Buck's comments on homosexuality that overshadowed the other issues and forced the Republican to explain his choice of words afterward.

For Buck, who has a small lead over Bennet in recent polling, the question is how long until footage from the debate makes its way into a Democratic attack ad. Buck himself said "there's no doubt there will probably be a commercial on something like that" from Democrats. Another variable is whether a stronger focus on social issues will develop as a result of Buck's comments. The next debate will take place on October 23.

October 17 and 25 Kentucky Senate Debates: Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) blasted state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) on October 17 in an exchange over a Conway TV ad that raised questions about Paul's Christianity. The debate ended with Paul refusing to shake Conway's hand.

South Carolina Republican Sen. Jim DeMint, one of the conservative kingmakers this cycle, endorsed businessman John Raese (R) in the West Virginia Senate race on Tuesday.

Raese is the eleventh Republican Senate candidate that DeMint has backed this cycle.

"John is a principled conservative leader who has a strong chance of winning this critical race and really needs our help," DeMint said in an email to supporters.

The endorsement is significant because it shows that Raese is hitching his wagon to DeMint should he defeat Gov. Joe Manchin (D). If all of DeMint's 11 endorsed candidates win, he would have significant leverage in Senate negotiations and could pursue a leadership role.

DeMint has also proven to be very effective marshaling Tea Party and conservative support for his endorsed candidates this year. His fundraising assistance will no doubt be appreciated by Raese, who ended the third quarter with just $203,000 cash-on-hand.

In the email, DeMint hinted at a conservative caucus forming in the next Congress.

"If John Raese wins," DeMint wrote. "He will join a group of new Republicans in the Senate who will honor their oaths to support and defend the Constitution."

Through his Senate Conservatives Fund, DeMint has raised nearly $5M for his endorsed candidates, which include Christine O'Donnell (R-Del.), Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), Joe Miller (R-Alaska) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). You can see how much DeMint has raised for each of these candidates here.

The Democratic Congressional Committee has reserved ad buys in Rep. Heath Shuler's (D-N.C.) district for the first time, another sign that the DCCC is having to spend money on incumbents who were previously believed to be safe.

The ad reservations, confirmed by multiple sources tracking ad buys, show that the DCCC is continuing to reevaluate where to spend its resources in the final weeks of the campaign. In addition to Shuler, the DCCC has also increased its ad reservations for House Budget Committee Chair John Spratt (D-S.C.) and Rep. Mike McIntyre's (D-N.C.), both of whom who hold solidly Republican seats that John McCain carried in 2008.

The reservations for Shuler for the final two weeks of the race are significant because Shuler had appeared to be in control of his race against businessman Jeff Miller (R), despite his district's conservative leanings. The DCCC did not plan to air ads here originally, but Shuler has faced a barrage of negative ads from third party groups like Americans for Job Security. The fact that the DCCC is going in here shows that the playing field is still continuing to expand.

Shuler's race has also captured the attention of national figures -- another sign that it is in play. House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) is attending a rally for Miller on Tuesday. And Pres. Bill Clinton will stump for Shuler on Thursday.

These reservations come after reports that the DCCC has canceled reservations in the Philadelphia media market. The committee also reduced its reservations in several districts last week.

The DCCC has been spending heavily for Spratt, who faces state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R). The committee has already shelled out more than $600,000 on ads in the district.

A member of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-Calif.) leadership team, Spratt is a top target for Republicans and the NRCC has been spending heavily on the race.

The DCCC has also spent nearly $78,000 targeting Ilario Pantano (R) in McIntyre's district.

Emails and calls to the DCCC were not returned.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is going back to the GOP's bread and butter attack line in an new Illinois Senate ad: Taxes.

The committee is airing a new ad using Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias's (D) words against him. "Alexi Giannoulias has a message for Illinois," the narrator says before a clip of Giannoulias rolls. "We need an income tax increase," Giannoulias says.

The ad, obtained by Hotline On Call is significant because Giannoulias will face off with Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in their second of three debates on Tuesday. Polling shows this race to be neck and neck, with both parties spending big and motivated by the prestige of Pres. Obama's former Senate seat.

And with two weeks to go to Election Day, every ad matters in this race. Because of Illinois' expensive media markets, campaigns typically wait to go on the air full-bore, meaning voters don't really begin deciding who they will support until the final couple weeks.

It is also an indication that Republicans are honing in on an anti-tax message in their closing argument.

"For our seniors, Alexi says, 'We need an income tax increase,'" the ad says. "If you don't want a tax increase, you don't want Alexi."

Check out the ad below.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. We are two weeks from Election Day and here's what's on the radar: the DCCC pulls back in Philly; the DGA doubles down on Florida; it's elitism versus extremism in the Nevada Senate race; few signs of a Ted Strickland comeback in new polling; Giannoulias looks to strike; and a rough morning for Alaska's Joe Miller.

Obama Goes To Bat For Boxer: Pres. Obama has cut only his second campaign ad of this election cycle, appearing in a one minute radio spot for Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.).

"This is Barack Obama. On November 2, California has a choice and the stakes couldn't be higher. I am asking you to get out and vote for Sen. Barbara Boxer."

Obama has very rarely appeared in ads this year -- a sign of his damaged political brand. The only other one he filmed was a TV spot for state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D), who is challenging Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao in Louisiana's heavily Democratic 2nd District.

The President also recorded a robocall for Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D), who is running for Obama's old Senate seat. Obama has stumped for Giannoulias several times and Giannoulias used footage of Obama in an early campaign ad.
AD: http://bit.ly/9fv8b2
Robocall: http://bit.ly/ayHqSc

Strickland Still Struggling: Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) isn't making up ground against former Rep. John Kasich (R), despite buzz that Democrats were starting to rally behind their candidates in Ohio. A new Quinnipiac survey shows Kasich leading 51 percent to 41 percent, virtually the same as the 50 percent to 41 percent deficit Strickland faced in the last Q poll earlier in October.

Even more telling, the poll shows that the president is a major drag on Strickland's prospects, making his decision to appear alongside Obama all 11 times he's visited the state - including last weekend's big OSU rally -- a bit puzzling. So much for a comeback. http://bit.ly/ae95ln

DCCC Pulls Back In Philly: The suburbs have been a huge growth area for Democrats over the past two cycles, but if the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's ad reduction in Philadelphia is any indication, they're going to give up a lot of gains in those areas come Election Day.

It's a sign of how the landscape has changed in just a month's time. The initial conventional wisdom was that Republicans wouldn't have enough cash to compete in the Democratic-leaning and expensive suburbs around Philadelphia. But now, with more races coming into play, it's Democrats who can't afford to spend valuable millions on behalf of Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) and the PA 07 open seat, when there are dozens of other races they'll need to defend, where the DCCC's money can go further.

http://bit.ly/9Or7C3

DGA Doubles Down On Florida: The DGA is sending another $500,000 to Florida, a sign that Florida is the top gubernatorial pick up opportunity for Democrats this year. With the transfer, the DGA has sent $6 million to the state -- the most the committee has ever sent to any state ever.

The transfer is also a sign that the race between state CFO Alex Sink (D) and businessman Rick Scott (R) is tight as a tick. In a sign of the race's importance, DGA Chair Jack Markell (D-Del.) will also be heading to Florida on Tuesday to campaign for Sink.

Alexi Looks To Strike Again: It's round two in the Illinois Senate debates and Giannoulias is looking to land another blow on Rep. Mark Kirk (R). Giannoulias' campaign says they saw their numbers tick up after the first debate, so expect the Democrat to stay on the offensive and highlight the latest flap surrounding Kirk exaggerating his role in drafting legislation that cracked down on companies who did business with Iran.

Kirk told the Chicago Sun-Times that he helped draft the legislation then passed it to House Foreign Affairs Chair Howard Berman (D-Calif.) so it would be easier to pass in a Democratic Congress. Berman said that was an "exaggeration." http://bit.ly/dfakj4

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee isn't giving up on Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas). At least not yet.

The committee went up with a new ad on the congressman's behalf Monday, targeting businessman Bill Flores (R) for accepting government bailout funds.

"As a senior executive of a big oil company Bill Flores got a $7.5 million government bailout when his government went bankrupt," the ad says. "And who paid for this bailout? You did."

The ad is significant because many prognosticators had already written off this race for the Republicans. Edwards is in very conservative territory, and polling as recent as a month ago showed Flores opening up a double digit lead. In fact, just two weeks ago Hotline On Call reported that the DCCC had scaled back the size of its ad reservations in the district -- a sign that it was beginning to pull out.

But Democrats are increasingly bullish that Edwards can survive. The point to an internal campaign poll showing him down 4 percent and the revelation that Flores' company took bailout funds as signs that the race is breaking their way.

Even so, this is still a district that gave Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) 67 percent in 2008, making it hard to see how Edwards can survive in a Republican wave year.

Check out the ad below.

Rep. Bobby Bright, who represents one of most conservative Democratically held districts, is opening up a lead on his Republican challenger, according to Democratic polling.

The DCCC conducted the poll that shows Bright leading Montgomery Councilor Martha Roby (R) 51% to 39%. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted the survey for the DCCC.

As with our last post, the usual caveat for internal polls applies -- they typically skew toward to the party conducting the poll.

This Bright poll is significant because it indicates that the Democrat is widening his lead. In a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll conducted Sept. 26 to 28, Bright led by 9%, 52% to 43%.

Bright has done virtually everything imaginable to distance himself from national Democrats and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). He was the first incumbent Democrat to say he wouldn't vote for Pelosi and he has aired an ad touting how frequently he votes with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH).

The new survey was conducted Oct. 9 to 12 for the DCCC. It surveyed 400 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Washington's attention has been firmly focused on the battle over control of Congress. But on the state level, there are numerous tight gubernatorial races capturing voters' attention. And those statewide races might have more influence on Senate results than any party committee or outside group.

Voters tend to care more about who their governor is than their Congressional representation, mostly because state policy matters affect their pocketbooks to a greater degree. This year, 37 states have gubernatorial elections, a huge number for a single cycle and, in a close race, whether or not a Senate candidate will win may depend on their gubernatorial ticket mate's turnout operation.

In Illinois, for example, the Senate race between Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R) has been stuck in neutral for months, but Gov. Pat Quinn (D) has been struggling to keep up against state Sen. Bill Brady (R). Quinn was down in the polls by more than 10 points this summer. With the unpopular Quinn leading the ticket, Democrats were down on Giannoulias' chances to eke out a win against Kirk. Labor, who was sitting out the election in protest against Quinn, seemed unlikely to fund the GOTV operations necessary to help downticket House and legislative races. But Quinn has resurrected since Labor Day, and labor, realizing that Brady would probably not represent their interests, have contributed late money to Quinn's re-election effort, lending new power to Giannoulias' Chicago turnout operation.

On the other hand, Kirk is banking on Brady to turn out the conservative vote in downstate Illinois, and betting on those voters to vote straight GOP and not skip his pro-choice candidacy. Kirk's camp is staying out of Chicago, hoping his suburban swing base and Brady's base of downstaters will be enough to push him over the edge. If the Senate race remains as tight as it has been, the governor's race turnout might determine the ultimate outcome of one of the most important Congressional races this year.

Republicans are increasingly bullish on picking up the seats of Reps. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) and Kurt Schrader (D-OR) based on recent campaign polling.

Internal campaign polls obtained by Hotline On Call show Sanchez to be tied with Assemblyman Van Tran (R) at 39%. The fact that Sanchez is polling below the 40 percent mark is a troubling sign for a 7-term incumbent, Republicans argue.

Another internal poll shows Schrader trailing state Rep. Scott Bruun by a four-point margin, 44% to 40%.

As usual, internal polls should be taken with the appropriate context. Candidates tend to perform better in their own polls, especially those leaked to the media.

Even so, these polls are very good signs for the GOP. Sanchez was originally considered vulnerable, then several missteps by Tran moved this race firmly into the Democratic column. The Cook Political Report currently ranks this race as Lean Democratic. Pres. Bill Clinton stumped for Sanchez last week.

And the Schrader-Bruun match up is quickly becoming one of the top tier toss up races of the cycle. Both the DCCC and the NRCC are spending heavily on this race.

Tran's poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies Oct. 13 to 14. It surveyed 300 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 5.66%.

Bruun's poll was conducted Oct. 13 to 14 by Moore Information. It polled 300 likely voters and also has a margin of error of +/- 5.66%.

The third quarter fundraising numbers are in, so it's time to declare some winners and losers.

In the Senate contests the big winners were Republicans, most of whom outraised their Democratic counterparts.

WINNERS:
Dino Rossi (R), who outraised Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), $4.4M to $3.3M, and has a $3.5M to $1.2M cash on hand advantage in the Washington Senate race. Rossi's fundraising puts this race squarely back on the map after recent polling showed Murray opening up a lead.

Christine O'Donnell's (R-DE) $3.8M haul is impressive. She has a $2.6M to $1.3M cash on hand advantage over Democrat Chris Coons, who raised $1.5M. The money will help O'Donnell, but she's still a long shot.

Rep. Mark Kirk (R), who raised $3.1M to Alexi Giannoulias' (D) $2.3M. More importantly, Kirk has $4.4M in his warchest to Giannoulias' $1.1M. Giannoulias will be helped here, though, this race will be one where the DSCC's money advantage will definitely play a role.

In Wisconsin, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) raised $4.2M and reported $3.5M cash on hand. That's significantly more than businessman Ron Johnson's (R) $3.3M raised and $2M cash on hand. Feingold has been buoyed by fundraising from progressive groups like MoveOn.org. He may find, however, that his fundraising advantage gets wiped out quickly if Johnson decides to dip further into his personal fortune.

Other winners we've known for a while. Sharron Angle's (R-NV) $14M raised is still jaw-dropping, and Marco Rubio (R-FL) looks well-positioned with his $5M raised and $5.5M cash on hand.

LOSERS:
Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) raised $811K, and that just won't cut it. He only has $547K in the bank, significantly less than Kelly Ayotte (R), who raised $1.3M and has $1.1M in her warchest.

Lee Fisher's (D-OH) dismal $1M raised, $376K in the bank pretty much means the Senate can starting making nameplates for Rob Portman (R), who raised $2.8M and has $6M in his bank account.

The same can be said for the Indiana Senate race. Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) only raised $494K - less than in some of his House campaigns -- to former Sen. Dan Coats's (R) $2M. Ellsworth reported $835K cash on hand while Coats has $1.3M in his bank account.

DRAW:
Rep. Joe Sestak (D) raised less than Pat Toomey (R) in Pennsylvania -- $3.2M to $3.8M -- but the Democrat has more cash in the bank. Sestak will $2.7M in his warchest to Toomey's $2.3M. The numbers are yet another indication that this is turning into a top race for both parties in these last two weeks.

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina's (R) $5.8M haul trailed Sen. Barbara Boxer's $6.2M, but it showed that she is still viable. She'll need plenty of help to fight Boxer's $6.5M to $1.8M cash on hand advantage. Fortunately for her, the NRSC has pledged nearly $5M to her campaign.

Rand Paul (R) may have outraised Jack Conway in Kentucky by $1M, but he only has a $1.4M to $1M cash on hand advantage.

Some numbers still haven't been reported. We're looking at you, Linda McMahon (R-CT), Charlie Crist (I-FL) and John Raese (R-WV).

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. We're about two weeks from Election Day, and the crazy season has descended upon us.

What we're watching today: Joe Miller's security team arrests an editor in Anchorage, Rand Paul gets bitter; Ken Buck provides an opening for Michael Bennet; DNC dishes out more dough; and DCCC starts spending on ... Raul Grijalva.

Alaska Hijinks: Things got heated in Alaska Sunday night, as attorney Joe Miller's private security guards arrested the founder and editor of the liberal blog Alaska Dispatch at an event at a public school. Miller's campaign released a one paragraph statement that said a "liberal blogger loses it at town hall meeting." The Miller campaign accused the editor, Tony Hopfinger of trying to "create a publicity stunt."

According to the Dispatch's coverage of the event, Hopfinger has been released by the Anchorage police.

We're betting this comes up when Miller meets Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) in a debate Monday evening.
Dispatch coverage: http://bit.ly/a0TI4D
Photos: http://bit.ly/auMzHL

Kentucky Race Turns Nasty: The Kentucky race has gotten personal, as Rand Paul (R) blasted Jack Conway (D) Sunday night at a debate for a recent campaign ad that questions Paul's affiliation with a secret society during college.

"I will not shake hands with someone who attacks my religion," Paul said at the debate.

Conway refused to apologize. "When is it ever a good idea to tie up a woman and ask her to kneel before a false idol called Aqua Buddha?"

"How ridiculous are you?" Paul said. "You embarrass this race." http://bit.ly/bsmqaj

Conway's October attack on Paul is reminiscent of another last-minute attack ad from 2008--the one where former Sen. Elizabeth Dole accused Democrat Kay Hagan of being "godless." They were both aired by a candidate trailing in the polls, desperate for a Hail Mary game-changer, and like Dole's ad, the Conway spot has more risk to backfire than spark a comeback.

Conway ad: http://bit.ly/bVe9Kc

An Opening For Bennet? Sen. Michael Bennet (D) may have finally gotten a break in his campaign against Republican Ken Buck. Buck, who has held a consistent lead in polls, blundered Sunday when he appeared to compare homosexuality to alcoholism. Per The Hotline's Amanda Munoz-Temple and Jamie Shufflebarger: "When asked if being gay is a choice, Buck said yes, and went on to add: 'I think that birth has an influence...like alcoholism and some other things, but I think that basically, you have a choice."... Bennet jumped on the issue after the debate. 'I was struck both by his position on gays in the military and also the fact that he used the language that he did.'"

That said, 2010 is shaping up to be a referendum on economic, not social issues, and it remains to be seen if voters will break to Bennet because of Buck's position on gay rights.

http://bit.ly/dapcgt

Republican Ken Buck was on the defensive against Sen. Michael Bennet (D) during Sunday's "Meet the Press" Colorado Senate debate, stumbling at several points on both economic and social issues.

At one point, Buck opened the door to a potential Democratic attack ad when he compared being gay to the disease of alcoholism.

When asked if being gay is a choice, Buck said yes, and went on to add: "I think that birth has an influence...like alcoholism and some other things, but I think that basically, you have a choice."

Speaking to reporters after the debate, Buck sought to clarify his comments.

"I am not a biologist and I haven't studied the issue, but that's my opinion," Buck said. "I wasn't talking about being gay as a disease. I don't think that at all and I hope that no one would be that insensitive to try to draw that...I certainly didn't mean it that way."

Bennet jumped on the issue after the debate. "I was struck both by his position on gays in the military and also the fact that he used the language that he did."

The two men also clashed over the Tea Party, campaign ads, outside groups' spending and Pres. Obama, but the majority of the debate was focused on Buck, who had to fend off host David Gregory 's pointed questions. Bennet had to answer for his votes on the economic stimulus package and health care reform, but was successful in bringing the focus back to Buck's stances on abortion and other issues important to suburban Denver women -- a crucial swing vote in the race.

What we at The Hotline took away from this week:

-- Two GOP front-runners were put on defense this week by revelations about their pasts and their Democrats opponents quickly seized on the developments. In the Texas governor's race, word that Gov. Rick Perry (R) approved a grant from a state fund to a company founded by a campaign contributor -- despite the company's failure to win the endorsement of a regional screening board -- spread quickly across the state. In the New Hampshire Senate contest, Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) campaign pounced on some '06 emails from former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R), charging that Ayotte politicized a murder case.

For Perry, being hit by an opponent with charges of cronyism is nothing new, and for Ayotte, having to deal with emails from her tenure as state Attorney General being aired publicly is terrain that has also been traversed. But for each Republican, the latest charges from the opposition are also shaping up as the most severe. The takeaway: if the news moves the needle in the short-term in either or both of the races, there should be no doubt about how hard Democrats will press the issues in the final two weeks. On the other hand, if the numbers don't change, it may be a sign the two Republicans have each developed a relative immunity to attacks along these lines.

-- A new NPR poll of 96 competitive House districts confirms what we've seen in many national polls: the race for the House is tightening, but Democrats still trail and the outlook remains bleak. Even worse, undecideds -- who almost always move strongly against incumbents -- appear to be uncharacteristically taking their anger out on Democrats in open seats, too. If these numbers hold for the next two weeks, any Democrat who's sitting at 45% or under will be at great risk.

Republican congressional challenger Allen West -- the latest Republican House candidate to be embroiled in a personal scandal -- denied on Saturday that he has ever been affiliated with a controversial motorcycle club that has ties to criminal activity.

In an interview with Hotline On Call West said flatly that the issue is a nonstarter because the club does "not accept blacks, Jews or gays" in their membership. (West is black.) He has, however, written a column for a magazine that appears to endorse -- if not promote -- the Outlaws biker club.

West also said he will not be attending a rally for the magazine Saturday evening despite being listed on advertisements as a featured speaker.

The Republican is challenging Rep. Ron Klein (D) in FL 22 for the second time and is a favorite of the Tea Party. He has been a fundraising dynamo, outraising Klein in the third quarter by a $1.7M to $783K margin. He also has $1.6M in the bank to Klein's $270K, a difference that is particularly worrisome for Democrats.

But this latest scandal could seriously hurt his chances. On Friday, NBC news reported that West was tied to The Outlaws, a motorcycle club associated with criminal activity. NBC produced an email from West supporter that warned him that a "criminal organization members in leather riding up [I]-95 is not the picture Allen wants."

West, NBC reported, replied by emailing: "Please no more references to 'criminal'. I was never more amazed at how members of the Outlaws guarded me during an interview."

In an interview Saturday, West denounced the report as a "liberal character assassination attack."

"This most recent desperate insidious attack where Lisa Myers [of NBC News] did her piece where they are trying to associate me as a member of the Outlaw motorcycle club," he said. "If she did her research, she'd know that the Outlaws do not accept blacks, Jews or gays."

The third quarter FEC reports are in for all the competitive House races, and we've got all the numbers for you. Click the links below to see fundraising numbers for each category:

Endangered Veterans

Freshmen

Open Seats

In total, 44 Democratic incumbents were outraised by their challengers, while 14 had less cash on hand than their GOP counterparts. Reps. Kurt Schrader (D-OR), Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH), Steve Driehaus (D-OH), Harry Teague (D-NM), Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD), Joe Donnelly (D-IN.), Phil Hare (D-IL) and Ron Klein (D-FL.) were all both outraised and have less in their bank accounts than their GOP challengers, making them vulnerable in what's shaping up to be a GOP wave election.

Overall, the fundraising and spending pattern that has held for most of this cycle continued from July through September. Incumbent Democrats generally spent and raised more than their GOP challengers, while open seat Republican candidates held a big advantage over their challengers.

The NRCC has been on the air early in dozens of districts, and recently announced plans to increase its funding due to a better-than-expected fundraising performance. The committee will be aided in the final weeks by a $50M campaign by several outside organizations, including the American Action Network and American Crossroads.

Democrats, meanwhile, don't enjoy the support of such large third-party organizations, but the DCCC is planning to unleash the bulk of its $40M ad campaign in the last two weeks in an attempt to save those seats that are salvageable.

Here are some other winners and losers from the quarterly fundraising numbers:

Winners:

-- Most expected controversial figures like Reps. Alan Grayson (D-FL) and Michele Bachmann (R-MN) to rake in the big bucks, and they did. But state Rep. Kristi Noem (R), who's running against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD), and businessman Keith Fimian (R), who's challenging Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), were huge surprises to join the $1M+ club.

-- Once thought to be longshots, Republicans Bobby Schilling, who's taking on Rep. Phil Hare (D-IL), and Steven Palazzo, who's challenging Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS), both managed to haul in more than the incumbents. The showing by both validates their status as real upset picks on Nov. 2.

If money follows momentum, the third-quarter fundraising numbers for House Democrats are yet another ominous sign of what's in store for them on Election Day.

Throughout the country, an unusually large number of House Democrats, all sporting the fundraising advantages of incumbency, are getting outraised by their GOP challengers. Many endangered Democrats in leadership positions are getting outraised by Republicans primarily dependent on money from individual donors.

In Missouri, House Armed Services Chairman Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) was outraised by former GOP state Rep. Vicky Hartzler, $530K to $426K -- with the majority of her donations coming from individual donors in rural Missouri. In Colorado, Rep. John Salazar (D-Colo.), the brother of Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, was outraised by his Republican challenger Scott Tipton, $532K to $482K.

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), normally one of the Democrats' top fundraisers, got crushed on the financial front against Republican Dan Debicella. Himes raised a solid $575K, consistent with his past fundraising totals, but Debicella raised significantly more, $802K, in a suburban New York City district filled with Wall Street employees, many of whom are disenchanted with Democratic regulatory policies.

In South Dakota, Republican state Rep. Kristi Noem raised $1.1 million over the last three months - more than twice as much as Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) -- an eye-popping sum for a House race in such a small state. In North Dakota, Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), bringing in $528K was badly outraised by Republican Rick Berg, who raised $641K.

The list goes on and on: Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) wasn't even in the fundraising ballpark of his Republican challenger Jackie Walorski, who outraised the congressman, $546K to $323K. Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS), a popular conservative Democrat facing his first serious race in many years, got badly outraised by Republican Steven Palazzo.

We're still tabulating all the numbers, but if the trends hold up, we could see a record number of Democratic incumbents getting outraised in the last three months by their Republican challengers - another empirical bit of evidence that 2010 is shaping up to be a Republican rout.

This Sunday's roundtables will shed light on some of the nation's top Senate races. "Meet the Press" will host a Colorado Senate debate between Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Republican challenger Ken Buck. "This Week" focuses on the Delaware Senate race, featuring interviews with Democratic candidate Chris Coons and his Republican counterpart Christine O'Donnell. Over on FOX News, panelists Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Claire McCaskill (D-MO) spar over who will control the Senate after the election. And if you missed the much talked about CNN Delaware Senate debate, the encore will show on CNN on Saturday at 4 p.m.

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts WH press sec. Robert Gibbs and a CO SEN debate between Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Ken Buck (R).

Face the Nation hosts ex-DNC Chair Howard Dean, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), GOP strategist Liz Cheney and Brookings Institution sr. fellow William Galston.

This Week hosts DE SEN candidates Chris Coons (D) and Christine O'Donnell (R), and CA First Lady Maria Shriver and ex-HRC adviser Ann O'Leary.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and CA SEN candidate Carly Fiorina (R).

State of the Union hosts WH sr. adviser David Axelrod.

Other Weekend Shows

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's Path To Victory feature, where we look at some of the top races this cycle and how each side is planning to win. This week, we're tackling the Illinois Senate race for Pres. Obama's former seat, where both parties are already spending millions.

On Thursday, we laid out how Rep. Mark Kirk (R) is trying to overcome many misstatements about his military service and teaching experience. Kirk, who was touted as one of the NRSC's top recruits this year, has sought to shift gears and is now focusing on hitting state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) for the collapse of his family's bank and his mismanagement of Bright Start, a college savings plan.

We now turn to Giannoulias. Like Kirk, Giannoulias has had to recover from an early scandal. The Democrat has turned his attention to attacking Kirk for those misstatements and for being a creature of Washington -- a potent charge this year. If Giannoulias can motivate Obama voters to return to the polls and back him, he has a good shot at winning.

And with that, here is Giannoulias' path to victory.

Better The Devil You Know: A big reason why Giannoulias' camp believes it is in control of the race is it believes it has neutralized the catastrophe surrounding the Democrat's failed family bank. The campaign knew the collapse was coming and attempted to get out in front of the scandal.

On the flip side, the Giannoulias camp believes Kirk's many misstatements -- from inaccuracies about his military service and awards, to the length of his tenure as a teacher -- are fatal flaws for the congressman. The steady drip of stories over the summer made it a 5-week story, and Democratic polling shows that it has become a defining characteristic of the race.

The Giannoulias campaign has since sought to drive home the message that Kirk's misstatements show he's untrustworthy in a bevy of ads that labeled him "unfit" for office. In addition to prolonging that story line, the attack on Kirk's character has another benefit for Giannoulias -- it undermines the credibility of Kirk's attacks against him.

The DSCC nearly doubled the NRSC in fundraising in September, boosting its chances of being able to hold on to the Senate this year.

The Democratic committee hauled in $15.5M in September and has $25.6M in its bank account, according to reports. The NRSC raised $8.3M but finished the quarter with $19.2M in its warchest.

The cash on hand numbers show that both sides will be well equipped to slug it out in key Senate races in the run-up to Election Day.

The DSCC benefited from a few large contributions from party officials. It received a $1.7M check from the DNC as part of its Vote 2010 program. And Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY), a former chairman of the DSCC, also gave the committee $1M in September.

Even so, the DSCC's haul is impressive. The committee has raised more than $100M so far this cycle.

The NRSC's September haul is also a record-setter for the Republican committee; it is the most they have raised in one month in the last six years.

On Thursday, the DCCC also announced that it had outraised the NRCC, showing that both committees are well funded in their quest to defend both chambers this year.

Aqua Buddha and witchcraft have already inflamed Senate races, but as both parties abandon any pretense of civility and brawl for the Speaker's gavel, House races are hitting all seven deadly sins and more.

Perhaps only the race between Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall (WV-03) and Republican Spike Maynard simultaneously features accusations of nepotism (against Rahall for helping his son get off drug charges), judicial corruption (against Maynard for vacationing on the dime of a coal magnate with a case before his court), and xenophobia (against the shadowy West Virginia Conservative Foundation for criticizing Rahall's leadership role in Arab-Americans for Pres. Obama). But in multiple races, dug-up divorce files are dominating the eleventh hour personal warfare.

Just four years ago, conservative Democratic Rep. Lincoln Davis (TN-04) took to the floor of the House to criticize the Marriage Protection Act for not going far enough, arguing that divorce and adultery should be outlawed in addition to gay marriage. Ironically, a decade-old divorce file is now the only reason he still has a chance to fend off GOP physician Scott DesJarlais in the Tea Party hotbed of rural Tennessee. In a hard-hitting ad, Davis reminds voters that the "violent" and "unfaithful" DesJarlais was accused of firing a gun outside his ex-wife's bedroom door and putting the gun in his mouth for three hours, and later motioned to cut his child support payments.

Democrats in competitive House races have moved closer to their GOP rivals, according to a new poll of likely voters in battleground districts, but any progress they have made is mitigated by the larger playing field the party has to defend.

The poll, conducted from Oct. 7 to 10 for National Public Radio by Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies, shows that in the 53 most endangered Democrat-held seats, Democrats trailed their opponents, 48% to 44%. (The poll was a true ballot test, with each respondent being read the names of the candidates in their district. Sample sizes are too small to examine on a district-by-district level, however.)

Pres. Obama's unpopularity seems to be driving House Democrats' woes. Voters in these Republican-targeted districts, those rated by the Cook Political Report as "toss ups" or GOP-leaning or likely, disapprove of the president by a 55% to 41% margin. Among those districts carried by John McCain in '08, Republicans lead 49% to 42%.

The districts that Obama narrowly won with between 50% and 54% of the vote are evenly divided between the parties this election. Republicans lead in these districts by a slim margin, 46% to 44%. Many of these seats, like those of Reps. Larry Kissell (D-NC), Mark Schauer (D-MI) and Glenn Nye (D-VA), were held by Republicans until recently and were carried by George W. Bush. They swung Democratic in the last two cycles, and may be on the verge of moving back into the Republican column.

Endangered Democrats still maintain decent, if mediocre, approval ratings: 44% of likely voters approve of their Rep.'s job performance while 41% disapprove. Still, more voters strongly disapprove of their incumbents than strongly approve -- 28% to 21%. This enthusiasm gap, evident in polls throughout the summer and fall, shows up in this poll: Republicans are much more likely to a have high or very high interest in this election than Democrats.

Gov. Charlie Crist (I) is up with a new ad in the Florida Senate race attacking Republican Marco Rubio for his "extremist" agenda on issues like Roe v. Wade.

There's only one problem: Crist's checkered past on abortion. He has been pro-choice and pro-life in various stages of his political career - changing his positions for political gain.

"I'm fighting to stop Marco Rubio's extremist agenda to roll back Roe v. wade and cut your Social Security," Crist says.

Here's a quick rundown of Crist's past positions on abortion. When he first ran for office, he said he was "pro-choice" but not "pro-abortion." When he ran for governor in '06, he shifted to saying the "pro-choice" characterization was a lie, saying he was "pro-life." He even went so far in that campaign as to say the he would sign legislation that would ban abortions except in certain instances.

This year, when he left the GOP during the primary, Crist scrubbed his website of all pro-life language -- something that abortion opponents quickly picked up on. Then, in a move to court pro-choice Democrats that completely alienated the right, he vetoed legislation that would have required women to pay for an ultrasound and hear a description of the fetus before having an abortion.

Check out the ad below.

Throughout the Nevada Senate campaign, it was Republican Sharron Angle who looked unprepared for-prime-time. But after last night's debate, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid looked more like the gaffe-prone politician as he struggled to make headway in one of the closest and most consequential Senate contests.

Angle took full advantage of Reid's position as a political insider, taunting him for his support of Democratic policies, from the stimulus to the health care bill. At one point, Angle told Reid to "man up" - and later questioned how he became so wealthy as a public servant. 

"I'm not a career politician," Angle said in her opening remarks. "I live in a middle class neighborhood in Reno; Senator Reid lives in the Ritz-Carlton in Washington, DC."

Reid, recognizing the importance of the economy in this election, said his top priority as a senator is to create jobs. Angle retorted: "Harry Reid, it's not your job to create jobs. It's your job to create confidence to get the private sector to create jobs."

Reid didn't help his own cause either, fumbling through his notes during his closing statement and misidentifying the "Department of Education" as the "Department of Energy" and failing to aggressively take advantage of Angle's very conservative positions on whole host of issues.  And he offered frequent praise for a host of Republicans, like Antonin Scalia and former President George W. Bush, hardly a way to energize the Democratic base that's so crucial to his success.

By debate's end, Reid had failed to land any significant blows on Angle. He looked unprepared for Angle's barbs. With just one day until early voting becomes available to Nevada residents, Reid's performance didn't improve his precarious political standing.

And Angle, who only needed to demonstrate she wasn't as extreme as portrayed in Democratic commercials, performed that job adequately.

This was the one and only debate between the two candidates -- and the focus of both campaigns is now to turn out their core supporters, with early voting beginning on October 16.

Good Friday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. What we're watching today: Charlie Baker's campaign claims it's leading in Massachusetts; Michael Bennet and Ken Buck face off in Colorado; confident of victory, NRSC pulls money out of Florida and Missouri; Alexi Giannoulias's post debate bump; FEC filing day; the Big Dog heads West, as does Sarah Palin; and liberal group fundraising comes up short.

A Massachusetts Miracle? An important debate on Friday takes place in Massachusetts, where Gov. Deval Patrick (D) faces off against Republican Charlie Baker (R) and Treasurer Tim Cahill (I). And, from talking to both Patrick and Cahill campaign aides, it sounds like neither is going to bring up the ongoing saga surrounding Cahill's allegations that his former staffers were in cahoots with Baker and the RGA.

"The governor won't bring it up," said a Patrick aide. "It'll be interesting to see what the others do."

"The Cahill thing is really a sideshow between Cahill and his former consultants," said a Baker aide. "That's what Charlie will say."

Still it is bound to come up, but Baker believes not commenting is working. New Baker campaign internal polling leaked to Hotline On Call shows the Republican leading Patrick 42% to 35%. Always take internal polls with a grain of salt, but this survey shows why the Baker camp is increasingly confident it can weather the storm. The poll was conducted Oct. 11-13 (so, after the Cahill scandal broke), surveyed 800 likely voters and found Baker leading Patrick among independents by a 52% to 23% margin. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a reputable Republican firm.

Those Baker numbers, however, are directly contradicted by a Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters released Thursday. That poll showed Patrick leading 46% to 39%. http://bit.ly/98DEn9

NRSC Moves Money Around: The NRSC is moving ad buy money out of races where it believes it has already built strong leads. The AP reported Thursday that the NRSC was canceling $4M worth of TV ads in Florida. And, coming on the heels of news that the DSCC has cancelled ad time in Missouri, Republican sources tell Hotline On Call that it has also cancelled its reservations in that state for next week. They still have ad reservations in the last week there. http://wapo.st/a7kk9m

Liberal Groups Coming Up Short: The Wall Street Journal has this must-read on liberal groups failing to meet their fundraising projections. "A late effort by Democrats to match record fund raising by conservative organizations has come up short, leaving the party more reliant than usual on the campaign efforts of labor unions. A key pro-Democratic group, recently created by top party insiders to build a 'firewall' around the Democrats' majority in the House, said Thursday it hoped to raise $10 million. That's a fraction of the $50 million that an alliance of GOP groups said Tuesday they would spend to help Republicans in dozens of House races...The spending by outside GOP groups is key because in the last three election cycles Democratic outside groups have substantially outspent their GOP rivals." http://bit.ly/cVnn33

Wait, So Who's Lying? Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Republican Ken Buck debate again on Friday, and it sounds like it will be another testy one. "We're going to try to get a straight answer out of him," said the Bennet campaign source. "But it's two against one. Michael never knows who he is debating. You can't nail him down.

The Buck campaign source: "He's just dishonest with all his attacks."

Talk about loggerheads.

Other Debates Friday: Gov. Charlie Crist (I), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and Marco Rubio take the stage in Florida in the Senate race; John Hickenlooper (D), Dan Maes (R) and Tom Tancredo debate in Colorado.

Filing Day: Today is third quarter FEC filing day -- the last time candidates can showcase their fundraising prowess before Election Day. We're not expecting any more Sharron Angle-like $14M numbers, but there will be plenty of fundraising hauls to analyze over the weekend.

Keep an eye on the key Senate races: Mark Kirk (R) and Alexi Giannoulias (D) in Illinois, Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania and Bennet and Buck in Colorado.

On the House side, watch to see if second tier Republican challengers who are challenging Democrats who were believed to be safe rake in big sums. For example, is Republican George Phillips really going to give Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D-NY) a tough run? Same can be said for Steven Palazzo (R), who is running against Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS). If these guys post big quarters, it's a troubling sign for Democrats.

A Post Debate Bump For Giannoulias? Alexi Giannoulias's (D) debate performance last Sunday on "Meet The Press" has given his campaign a boost, according to internal polling obtained by Hotline On Call. In the new survey conducted Oct. 10-12 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Giannoulias' campaign, Giannoulias leads Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 44% to 41%.

Of course, the same internal poll caveat applies. However, it is worth noting that Giannoulias was trailing Kirk by 2% in his previous internal poll, which was conducted before the debate.

Democratic operatives believe there's a two-out-of-three chance that they will lose the House of Representatives to the Republicans and see little sign of a surge in the party's favor over the past month, according the results of the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll. At the same time, GOP operatives are now less optimistic about their chances of capturing the Senate than they were a month ago.

This week, Political Insiders were asked to rate on a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty) how likely it was that Republicans were going to take over the House and the Senate in November. The 111 Democratic Insiders who responded gave an average score of 6.7 out of 10 that Republicans would win the House. Not surprisingly, the 104 Republican Insiders who participated in the poll this week were even more bullish: their average score was 8.4 out of 10 that they would capture the House. For the Democratic Insiders, that average score of 6.7 was exactly the same as it was right after Labor Day, when the Political Insiders were asked the same question rating the GOP chances of winning the House and Senate.

Many of the comments by Democratic Insiders reflected their apprehensiveness about the outcome for the House elections. "Voters are looking for 'change they can believe in,' and apparently is you have a 'D' behind your name you better look out," observed one Democratic Insider. Said another, "Democrats would need an unanticipated boost at the national level or a series of stronger than expected showings to avert disaster: Start planning for 2012."

Across the aisle, GOP Insiders, like some of their Democratic counterparts, pointed to the wide range of seats that the party's candidates are competitive in this year as a reason for their optimism. "Even Democrats in previous [Democratic] strongholds are going to fall," predicted on GOP Insider. "It's just that bad out there for them."

NV GOV: Toss Up to Likely R -- As close as this race was supposed to be and despite waging an aggressive campaign, Democratic Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid is not closing the gap with GOP former federal Judge Brian Sandoval.

MI GOV: Lean R to Likely R -- Battered by the economy, Michigan voters seem ready to try something different and are poised to elect Republican venture capitalist and "one tough nerd" Rick Snyder as their next Governor.

SC GOV: Likely R to Lean R -- Republican state Sen. Nikki Haley is unlikely to lose this race, but the outcome may well be closer than it ought to be in this solidly Republican state.

AL GOV: Lean R to Likely R -- Despite primary upsets on both sides of the aisle, Democrats haven't been able to gain any traction here.

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's Path To Victory feature, where we look at the marquee match ups this year and how each side is planning to win.

This week, we turn our attention to the Illinois Senate race between Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R). This race for Pres. Obama's old Senate seat is pivotal for the GOP hopes of winning a Senate majority, and symbolically important for the White House and Democrats. The President, has already traveled to Chicago this month to help Giannoulias, with another visit upcoming. Both parties have invested heavily in this race; the DSCC has already doled out more than $1M on ads and the NRSC has pledged to spend $3.4M in coordinated campaign funds on Kirk's behalf.

But in a race where both candidates are seriously flawed -- Giannoulias for his family bank's bankruptcy and ties to mob figures and Kirk for exaggerating elements about his military service and other resume discrepancies -- this has quickly devolved into a race to the bottom. "I have never seen a race where both candidates have negatives this high," said one Illinois GOP operative.

Make no mistake: This maybe the race to watch as parties continue to funnel money into Illinois for a seat the White House badly needs to win. Polling shows the race to be a tie right now, but because of the extremely expensive Chicago media market, campaigns typically don't blanket the airwaves until the days leading up to Election Day. As a result, the race can break late.

As usual, we'll start with the candidate from the challenging party. And so, without further ado, here is Mark Kirk's path to victory:

Banking On Broadway Bank: In many ways, this race is a battle between one big mistake -- Giannoulias' family bank -- and a bunch of smaller mistakes -- Kirk's many misstatements.

Kirk's team believes it has the upper hand in this argument. It isn't just that Giannoulias' Broadway Bank failed and was taken over by the FDIC and that it loaned millions of dollars to borrowers with mob ties like the controversial Tony Rezko, but what that sort of business represents. Kirk's campaign has found that voters are not receptive to Giannoulias' defense of his involvement in the bank.

More importantly, the Kirk camp says the entire controversy shows that Giannoulias is part of the Chicago political machine. That, in light of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich's (D) recent scandal, is toxic in Illinois.

This strategy is evident in one of Kirk's recent ads, which refers to his opponent as "Chicago politician Alexi Giannoulias."

And the fact that Kirk pressed Giannoulias on the loans during last Sunday's "Meet the Press", while Giannoulias opted not to directly challenge Kirk on his exaggerations shows the Republican line of attack is more damaging.

The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman is out with his latest outlook for the House, and he is predicting a tsunami.

After surveying the state of several key toss up races, Wasserman concludes that the chances of a Republican landslide are rising.

Check out the whole thing here (subscription required).

Key graf:

Overall, given the status of these Toss Up races and the length of the Lean Democratic column, Democrats' chances of losing at least 50 seats are now greater than their chances of holding losses under 45 seats.

The DCCC outraised the NRCC in September, raking in $15.9M to the NRCC's $11.2M.

The haul is one of the DCCC's best fundraising months ever. They finished September with $41.6M in its bank account. That compares to the $19M that the NRCC has in its account.

Even though the DCCC benefited from a $1.7M transfer from the DNC, the fundraising haul is nevertheless impressive. The hefty bank account will come in handy as the DCCC prepares to blanket the airwaves in competitive races starting next week.

According to the DCCC, it has spent $17M on TV so far and has $60M left to spend. It is planning another $40M on IE TV ads and $20M on coordinated campaign and direct GOTV efforts.

On the airwaves, however, the NRCC is approaching parity. While the DCCC plans to spend $57M on air, the NRCC says it will spend $50M. Recently, the NRCC has spent significantly more money on TV ads, choosing to go up with spots early while the DCCC has marshaled its resources for the final weeks of the campaign.

This is the second straight month where the DCCC has outraised the NRCC in its effort to hold on to the House.

Scandals are playing a big role in a handful of key races this year, forcing campaigns to divert attention away from the economy and toward answering potentially embarrassing questions.

Auto dealer Tom Ganley's (R) campaign was thrown off guard when he was accused of sexual harassment, seriously hurting his once-strong chances of defeating Rep. Betty Sutton (D-OH) The accuser sued him for "sexual harassment, employment discrimination, intentional infliction of emotional distress, and loss of consortium," according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Team Ganley claimed the charges are "totally false and aimed to tar the image and character" of Ganley "at a crucial point in his campaign for Congress."

In Virginia, 28-year-old Krystal Ball (D-VA) became the subject of television furor after two conservative blogs posted photos of her handling sex toys at a costume party six years ago - pictures she uploaded to her personal Facebook page. Ball, who is challenging Rep. Rob Wittman (R), could be seen making sexually-suggestive gestures toward an apparatus strapped on her now-ex-husband's face.

Ball claimed to be angered and saddened in its immediate aftermath, writing a nearly 2,000-word essay for the Huffington Post. However, the scandal boosted her name and helped her spread her message through earned media with usually sympathetic anchors (see: Joy Behar, Dylan Ratigan, Megyn Kelly). NBC-Richmond reporter Ryan Nobles, who conducted the first TV interview with Ball after the story broke last week, wrote Tuesday that the YouTube video of the interview "has received more than 130,000 views" and that Ball "has now appeared on all three national cable news outlets." Her opponent, Rep. Rob Wittman (R), has not.

Sen. David Vitter (R) has taken the opposite approach to much more serious allegation mentioned during Rep. Charlie Melancon's (D) 2-minute TV ad . The ad focused on Vitter's '07 admission that he committed a "serious sin" with prostitutes. He's refused to answer any questions about his involvement in the D.C. Madame case and, likewise, his polling numbers remain strong.

There is a showdown brewing between two of the largest conservative third party groups -- the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Club for Growth.

On Wednesday, the Chamber backed Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-AZ) in his rematch against Republican David Schweikert -- the first time this cycle that the Chamber has endorsed a Democrat who voted for health care reform.

The Club for Growth has endorsed Schweikert, in a race that has become a major priority for Republicans and many conservatives.

Mike Connolly, a spokesman for the Club, nearly dropped the phone when Hotline On Call informed him that the Chamber had endorsed Mitchell. Connolly then said he obviously disagrees with the endorsement and questioned the Chamber's commitment to free-market principles.

"This is an important distinction and a fight is going on now," Connolly said. "Whether or not our principles should be pro business or pro free market."

"We believe in free markets and competition," he went on. "The folks at the Chamber supported the [economic] stimulus, the bailouts and corporate welfare. We oppose all those things."

J.P. Fielder, a spokesman for the Chamber, didn't deny Connolly's charges, but said that they consider large range of votes when making endorsements. The Chamber has been far more willing to endorse Democrats this year, having backed others, though all their other Democratic endorsements have gone to members who opposed Obama on health care reform. The Club has not backed any Democrats.

The NRSC is upping its ad buys in Pennsylvania, doubling what it plans to spend there in the next few weeks before Election Day.

The move is a sign that Senate race is tightening and both parties are heavily committed to the race financially.

The NRSC had originally planned to spend $1.7M statewide on air time. It is now planning $3.4M, according to committee sources. That's the same amount that the DSCC is planning to spend on air time in the next two weeks.

The news comes a day after the NRSC aired its first IE ad in Pennsylvania and two Democratic polls showed Rep. Joe Sestak making significant gains in his bid against former Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

The NRSC has also committed $1.7M, the maximum allowed, to Toomey's campaign in coordinated campaign funds.

The ad buys also show that this is one race where both sides will be spending significant resources. In addition to the NRSC's ad earlier this week, the DSCC has already spent on ads attacking Toomey.

Brian Walsh, a spokesman for the NRSC, insisted that the investment is not a defensive move in response to the poll. Rather, he insisted that the NRSC is fulfilling what it planned to spend in the state and that the Democrats recent decisions to pull advertising money out of Missouri have freed up funds they planned to spend there.

Walsh also noted that the NRSC on Tuesday upped its commitment to California; it now plans to spend $3M there to help former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) in her challenge to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D).

Even so, Sestak is a cagey campaigner who has said all along that he just wanted to keep the race close going into the final weeks of the campaign. He is counting on Democrats tuning in late and propelling him to a come from behind victory. National Democrats, moreover, are increasingly bullish on Sestak's chances.

Good Thursday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. On the radar: Harry Reid finally gets his shot at Sharron Angle; NRCC sets a fundraising record and targets Gene Taylor for the first time; DNC goes up with a new ad targeting young voters; the growing cell phone gap in polling; Richard Blumenthal opens a lead in Connecticut; Michael Bennet gets help from the NEA and the First Lady and Steve Driehaus drills the DCCC.

Reid Gets His Shot: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid finally gets a shot to debate Sharron Angle (R) Thursday and he's chomping at the bit. Campaign sources say there has been a deep frustration that Angle has avoided the media and, thus, avoided saying much on the record. Look for Reid to attack early and often on Angle's statements on Social Security and eliminating the Education Department to show that Angle is outside the mainstream.

"Because of the way she's conducted herself in the campaign -- not being willing to answer questions -- this is her last best chance to close the credibility gap," said the Reid campaign source. "If she can't take advantage of that. She's in big trouble."

Reid needs a strong performance to show Angle is unfit for office. He has been unable to do that so far with a barrage of TV ads. And given Angle's impressive $14M third quarter fundraising haul, he likely won't be able to outspend her on the airwaves from here on out.

Speaking Of Debates: There are plenty on Thursday. In addition to Nevada, Robin Carnahan (D) and Roy Blunt square off in Missouri; Jack Conway (D) meets Rand Paul (R) in Kentucky and Patty Murray (D) faces Dino Rossi (R) in Washington.

Gov. Pat Quinn (D) will also debate challenger Bill Brady (R), and gubernatorial debates will also take place in Maine, Idaho and Colorado.

NRCC Ups The Ante On Taylor: The shifting ad buys continue. The NRCC is now making ad reservations in Rep. Gene Taylor's (D-MS) district, according to committee sources. Taylor is likely the most conservative Democrat in the House -- he virtually never sides with the Democratic leadership. The reservations, the NRCC's first here, show that the committee is still looking to expand the playing field - and by raising over $11 million in September (its highest monthly total since 2006), are well-equipped to match the DCCC financially in the final month of the campaign.

DNC Doubles Down On The Black, Youth Vote: In coordination with Pres. Obama's town hall on Thursday airing on MTV, CMT and BET (how often do you get to put those three stations in one sentence?), the DNC is going up with a new ad aimed at energizing the African American and youth vote. The ad features clips of Obama's speeches at rallies in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and is being aired "in heavy rotation" on MSNBC and BET on Thursday. The DNC ad is the first of the cycle running on BET and is part of $3M the committee plans to spend on paid advertising on Black outlets.

"Two years ago, you defied the conventional wisdom in Washington," Obama says. "You proved that the power of everyday people was stronger than the forces of the status quo."
AD: http://bit.ly/9oaKAb

A Cell Phone Gap? There is a significant, and growing, party gap between households that only have cell phones and those that have landlines, according to a new fascinating study from the Pew Research Center. That gap is critical when considering poll accuracy, as many pollsters -- including virtually all who conduct automated call or IVR polls -- do not survey many cell phone users.

Pew found that in some of their recent surveys, respondents reached on landlines were more supportive of Republicans than those reached on cell phones -- sometimes by a margin as large as 6%. Take a look, this will have a significant impact on how polling is conducted both this cycle and in two years. http://bit.ly/alS6P6

Blumenthal Pulling Away? Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has opened up an 11-point lead over former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), according to a Quinnipiac Poll released Thursday. Blumenthal leads 54% to 43% among likely voters. This is the fourth recent poll that shows Blumenthal up double digits and is an indication that this one is increasingly looking safe for the Democrats. http://bit.ly/b958qx

Barbs flew Wednesday night in the first Delaware Senate debate between nominees Chris Coons (D) and Christine O'Donnell (R). Borrowing from one of Coons's fallback remarks of the night: "There's just so much to respond to -- a minute may not be enough."

The headlines were numerous. CNN commentary preceding the debate predicted that O'Donnell, who has been largely criticized for her questionable past and lack of experience, would succeed if she could make her opponent the issue. She not only did this; her immediate offensive approach forced Coons to do the same, resulting in a feisty he-said-she-said match that culminated during a discussion of the role of religion in politics.

O'Donnell asserted, "I would argue that there are more people who support my Catholic faith than his Marxist beliefs," referring to a '85 article in which Coons had called himself a "bearded Marxist." Coons brushed the remark off, saying it was "obvious that it was a joke," and that he is "not now, nor have I ever been, anything but a clean-shaven capitalist."

There was less focus than expected on O'Donnell's own personal controversies (probably the point of her offensive strategy), including her past financial struggles and the notorious "witch" comments. But she didn't escape the debate totally unscathed. In an eerie déjà vu moment reflective of a similar flub by VP candidate Sarah Palin in '08, moderator Nancy Karibjanian of Delaware First Media asked O'Donnell which recent decisions by the Supreme Court she objects to.

The DSCC has made significant TV ad reservations in Nevada to bolster Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D) campaign against Republican Sharron Angle (R). The reservations are the DSCC's first in Nevada this cycle.

According to multiple Republican sources who monitor ad reservations, the DSCC has reserved time starting next Tuesday, Oct. 19, through Election Day.

The exact amount of money the DSCC has reserved is hard to pin down because the ad buys are fluid and are likely still being made. But Republican sources told Hotline On Call that the DSCC is planning to spend more than $1M each week - their first spending in the state.

The ad reservations are significant, given that they come after Angle announced she raised over $14 million in the third quarter - an eye-popping total that should put her at financial parity with Reid. (She hasn't released her cash-on-hand figure yet.)

The DSCC did not respond to calls and emails.

Months of polls that showed GOP nominee Pat Toomey leading his Democratic opponent in the Pennsylvania Senate race -- many of which showed the Republican's lead inching near 10 points -- suddenly gave way Tuesday to two polls, albeit ones commissioned by Democrats, showing Rep. Joe Sestak (D) with the slightest of edges.

One poll, commissioned by the DSCC and conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang, said Sestak held a two-point lead on Toomey. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported later in the day that a Sestak internal poll conducted last week by Bennett, Petts and Normington showed him up by one point. Both survey sampled what they considered likely voters.

Is Toomey's advantage kaput? Probably not. As his campaign pointed out in a statement sent to Hotline On Call, an array of public polling on the race has shown the former Lehigh Valley congressman with a comfortable advantage.

"You can believe the last 16 different independent polls that show Toomey ahead, or you can believe one Democratic Party poll that shows Sestak ahead," a campaign spokeswoman said. "This is just an attempt to generate enthusiasm for Joe Sestak's failing campaign."

The RGA released a flurry of ads in New England media markets on Wednesday, hoping to bolster GOP gubernatorial candidates in Massachusetts, Maine and Connecticut.

The ads underline that Republicans believe they can make significant gains in gubernatorial races in the Northeast. In addition to the states above, Republican candidates are running very close races in Vermont and Maine. Waterville Mayor Paul LePage is clinging to a small lead in a five-way race in Maine despite showing a penchant for hot-headed behavior. LG Brian Dubie is running neck-in-neck with his Democratic opponent, while Massachusetts GOP nominee Charlie Baker and Connecticut GOP nominee Tom Foley are also in close races.

While the Republican Party has had trouble in recent cycles winning House seats in the relatively liberal region (former Rep. Christopher Shays was the last Republican in the entire regional House delegation when he was defeated in '08), they've fared far better in gubernatorial elections. Before Gov. Deval Patrick (D) won in '06, Massachusetts had an unbroken string of Republican governors since '91, while Connecticut, Rhode Island and Vermont all have sitting GOP governors.

This week's RGA ads all focus on the economic bread and butter issues and economic anxiety themes that have been resonating well nationwide, and all slam Democrats on tax policy and spending.

Rep. Jim Marshall (D-GA) on Wednesday followed Rep. Bobby Bright's (D-AL) lead and distanced himself from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) in a TV ad.

But unlike Bright's spot, Marshall's ad bears some similarities to a very controversial ad run by a Republican in '08 that led to significant backlash from the Democratic caucus.

"Georgia is a long way from San Francisco," the narrator says at the beginning of Marshall's ad, as images of hippies appears on the screen.

"And Jim Marshall is a long way from Nancy Pelosi. Jim Marshall does not support Nancy Pelosi. He voted the same as the Republican leader 65% of the time."

In '08, Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO) also aired an ad that featured images of San Francisco and tried to tie his opponent, Kay Barnes (D) to Pelosi and her "San Francisco style values." That ad featured pictures of, presumably, San Franciscans dancing. It was vehemently criticized by Democrats as gay-bashing.

The Marshall ad certainly isn't as over the top as Graves', but it's the first, shall we say, "hippie bashing" ad from a Democrat. Will there be any backlash on the left?

Check out both ads below.

Marshall's ad:

Graves' ad:

(H/T Ben Smith)

Former Nevada Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) has had what appeared to be a bad few weeks. Her pastor -- or former pastor, depending on whom you believe -- insulted Mormons, a group that accounts for 1 out of 4 of Nevada's GOP electorate and her opponent. At a recent rally, Angle agreed with an audience member that Sharia law is taking hold in towns in the U.S.

Last week, she was taped during a private meeting with Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian in which she offered him her "juice" in DC, meaning access to senators, in exchange for Ashjian dropping out of the race -- not the best revelation for a candidate who has railed against Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D) and his insider deal-making.

She caught some flak for the stereotypical "illegal immigrants" she featured in a recent ad. And to top things off, a number of prominent Nevada GOP leaders have thrown their support to Reid, most recently and notably state Sen. Bill Raggio (R).

But for the first time in a long time, people are not assuming that Reid will ultimately prevail against Angle. It had been something of a Democratic miracle that in this election where the trend was moving so strongly against the party in the House and Senate, the Majority Leader looked likely to pull through thanks to a wacky, extreme right opponent.

But Angle has led in three polls of likely voters in the past two weeks -- including one poll last week that showed her taking 50 percent of the vote.

Nate Silver is now projecting a 66% likelihood of an Angle win. And this past week, for the first time since July, Intrade has seen Harry Reid fall below 50% and Sharon Angle rise to above 50%.

And perhaps most importantly, Angle's campaign released her fundraising numbers on Tuesday: Angle raked in a staggering $14M in the third quarter.

So is Angle gaining crucial momentum as she and Reid head into early voting?

In this political environment, are three-decade veterans in Congress vulnerable because of, and not despite, their time in Washington? Nervous Democrats are cognizant that many long-term incumbents up for re-election in '94 ultimately fell, including 42-year Democratic Rep. Jack Brooks of Texas, who chaired the Judiciary Committee and outspent his GOP opponent four to one. Everyone knows House Armed Services Chair Ike Skelton (MO-04) and House Budget Chair John SprattM (SC-05) have topped the NRCC's target lists all year, but now new GOP polls show House Transportation Chair Jim Oberstar (MN-08) and Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), dean of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, in danger.

In the cases of Oberstar (a 36-year House veteran) and Ortiz (a 28-year House veteran), previously unnoticed Republican candidates are claiming traction by channeling voters' frustration with Washington into resentment toward the Democrats' congressional longevity. Even many Minnesota Republicans can't get their head around the idea that Navy Captain Chip Cravaack, who in July had $24K in the bank to Oberstar's $1.1M, is a serious threat. Oberstar is a personally beloved figure in northern Minnesota's Iron Range. But as the political environment sours for Democrats in working-class districts who have voted for unpopular bills, a new poll conducted for Cravaack by Public Opinion Strategies shows Oberstar leading Cravaack 45% to 42%.

The DCCC has invested $6.3M on TV ads this week, including a few large media buys in districts that were once believed to be sure pickups for the GOP this year.

The total is the most the DCCC has spent in one week on ad buys so far, and it is also spending in the most districts -- 38 this week.

That is still less than the $8M the NRCC spent on ads this week in more than 50 districts, but it reflects that the DCCC is ramping up its ad buys as planned. While the NRCC has planned to spend early in an attempt to damage Democrats, the DCCC has reserved the bulk of its resources for the final two weeks of the campaign -- so, starting next week.

Ad buys, as always, provide insight into where national Democrats believe their candidates are running well as well as which Democrats may be in trouble. And this week, there are a few surprises in where the DCCC has dedicated significant resources.

The biggest surprise is the DCCC spending the most -- $354K -- against state Sen. Andy Harris (R) in his challenge to first term Rep. Frank Kratovil (D). This district was considered as good as gone for the Democrats at the beginning of the cycle, and Kratovil was even mentioned in a New York Times article that suggested he was one incumbent the DCCC was considering cutting loose.

The Chamber of Commerce has also aided Kratovil's cause recently, as it dumped nearly $170K into the district recently. Kratovil was one of just six Dems to receive Chamber air support.

The ad buy signals that national Democrats believe this is a sleeper race and Kratovil is running much strong than anticipated. It also speaks to Harris' weaknesses as a candidate.

Similarly, the DCCC has also invested $187K in WV 01, where Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) lost the Democratic primary earlier this year. The DCCC's spending shows that state Rep. Mike Oliverio (D) has a good shot at holding off David McKinley (R) in this conservative leaning district. The cmte pulled funding out of three heavily Republican-leaning open seats yesterday.

IL SEN: There is no Senate race more important to the White House than this one between Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and GOP Rep. Mark Kirk. The White House's interest is obvious: this is Pres. Obama's Senate seat and Democrats appreciate the symbolism of losing it. And, so do Republicans. NRSC chair John Cornyn (R-TX) goes as far as to call it a trophy seat. It's not a surprise that national Democrats are pulling out all the stops for Giannoulias, including two appearances -- so far -- by the President.

Unfortunately for the White House, it's probably the closest Senate race in the nation. In the last eight polls released in the contest, Kirk has led in five, while Giannoulias has been ahead in three. If 36 Senate races on the ballot this year are being waged on the economy, jobs and deficits, this one has been all about character. It's Kirk, the congressman who embellished his military service record, versus Giannoulias, the "mob banker," who saw his family's community bank fail and get sold by federal regulators. It's no wonder voters are split, or why the President is having a tough time closing the sale.

NV GOV: As Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (D) is learning the hard way, 2010 is not the year to build a political dynasty. As Rory Reid battles in the open gubernatorial contest, his father, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), is locked in a tough re-election contest. By all accounts, the governor's race should be close, but former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) holds a decisive advantage in the contest. It would seem that the son is paying for the sins of the father.

American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS, the affiliated outside organizations that have already spent millions of dollars on the midterm elections on behalf of Republican candidates and drawn the ire of Pres. Obama in the process, are blowing through their fundraising goals and planning new assaults on Democratic candidates in coming weeks.

The groups have raised $56M to this point, a spokesman tells Hotline On Call. That amount is already well above their initial $50M goal.

Now, American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS are aiming to raise and spend $65M on the election -- an amount one source with knowledge of the organization's finances said was a conservative estimate of what they could raise by Election Day.

So far, the two groups have focused largely on Senate races. Part of the added funding includes another $5M commitment to Senate campaigns.

But with three weeks to go before Election Day, they will turn their attention toward taking over the House. They will join a coalition of Republican-friendly outside organizations in a $50M campaign to target House Democrats, to which the Crossroads groups will contribute $10M.

Obama and other Democrats have recently spotlighted outside organizations, chiefly the Crossroads pair and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, for spending anonymous money on the midterms. But that focus has only reaped rewards from an energized Republican donor base -- the Crossroads groups have raised $13.3M since last week alone, when Obama began attacking them by name.

The SEIU is coming to Rep. Phil Hare's (D-IL) defense, launching a radio and TV ad in his district on Wednesday.

The ads, obtained by Hotline On Call, attack restaurateur Bobby Schilling (R) on outsourcing -- the left's go to attack line on the economy this cycle.

The spots are significant because they show that labor is carefully picking its races this year. Unions readily admit they are going to be outspent by conservative third party groups, but they still plan to play a large role in selected races.

It is also important to note that SEIU is going in for Hare, who represents a district that President Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote. Hare wasn't considered highly vulnerable until about a month ago, when Republican polls showed his race with Schilling to be much tighter than anticipated. The DCCC consequently reserved air time in Hare's district.

The ad will air in the Quad Cities area of Illinois for a week starting today. The SEIU is spending more than $317K on airing the ads.

"150,000. That's how many Illinois jobs have been lost to unfair trade deals," the ad says. "But Bobby Schilling supports a new free trade deal with Korea. And Schilling says he'd support even more free trade deals."

Check it out below.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: The NRSC blitzes Joe Sestak in PA; Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman get personal; Christine O'Donnell and Chris Coons set to square off; rumors swirl in Florida; Lisa Murkowski makes her write-in bid official; Dems breaking with Nancy Pelosi; and Joe Biden tosses cold water on an Obama-Clinton '12 ticket.

NRSC Blitzes Sestak: The NRSC is going up with its first IE ad in Pennsylvania on Wednesday. The ad, provided to Hotline On Call, hits Rep. Joe Sestak (D) hard on the stimulus, health care reform and cap and trade, using clips of Sestak interviews.

"What did Joe Sestak think of the stimulus bill that failed to create jobs?," the narrator asks. "It's the minimum amount needed, I would have voted for $1 trillion," Sestak responds. On health care reform: "Hard for me to vote for a bill that doesn't have a public health care option in it," Sestak says. On cap and trade: "I pushed hard for the cap and trade bill."

"There's left. There's far left. And then there's Joe Sestak," the ad concludes.

While Republican Pat Toomey has led Sestak for many months, the NRSC's decision to spend millions in the Keystone State shows they can't take the race for granted. President Obama and Joe Biden's rally last weekend certainly helped rally the African-American base in Philadelphia, which needs to turn out in force for Sestak to win.

While it is the first time the NRSC has launched its own ad in the Pennsylvania race, it is worth keeping in mind that the committee has already given $1.7M to former Rep. Pat Toomey's (R) campaign in coordinated campaign funds.
AD: http://bit.ly/ctMXBg

Brown And Whitman Get Personal: The final California gubernatorial debate between former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) and former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) turned testy at about the half way point on Tuesday night. The issue was the recording that caught a Brown staffer calling Whitman a "whore." Brown apologized for the remark but Whitman said he needs to do more. "It's unfortunate," Brown said. "I'm sorry it happened. I apologize." Californians "deserve better than slurs and personal attacks," Whitman responded, rolling her eyes. "I think every Californian, and especially women, know exactly what's going on here and that is a deeply offensive term to women." http://bit.ly/caWWRh

This Promises To Be Entertaining: Christine O'Donnell (R) will debate Chris Coons (D) for the first time Wednesday night, and it will be aired on CNN at 7:30 p.m.

Dems Breaking With Pelosi: Watch this trend carefully: An increasing number of Democrats are beginning to say they won't support Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for Speaker next year if Democrats retain the House -- or at least that they are open to considering someone else. The statements are a sign that all the anti-Pelosi rhetoric being used by Republicans may be starting to get in their heads.

They are led by Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL), who has gone up with a new ad that hammers the message home.

"I've heard my constituents, and they don't want a liberal running the House, they want a conservative," Bright says as "Bright WON'T vote for Pelosi" is displayed on the screen."

On Tuesday, Rep. Scott Murphy (D-NY) said he'd consider other options, following Rep. Peter DeFazio's (D-OR) lead. State Sen. Roy Herron (D), who is running for the open seat in TN 08, also said Tuesday that he won't back Pelosi.

By The Hotline's count, three Democratic House candidates have said they won't vote for Pelosi, while 10 Democratic incumbents have said they are open to considering new leadership. Another trio of Democratic House candidates have similarly said they won't necessarily vote for Pelosi.
Bright ad: http://bit.ly/9I8fO9
Murphy: http://bit.ly/94Z9Yy
DeFazio: http://bit.ly/9I8fO9
Herron: http://bit.ly/cTp11U

The conservative American Crossroads group has purchased another $3.7M in TV ads in six Senate races this week, according to their FEC filings.

Along with its nonprofit arm, Crossroads GOP, the group is targeting Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, Illinois, Kentucky and Florida -- all states where it has already invested significantly.

The ad buys underscore the sizable influence of Crossroads this year.

It is spending the most money -- $1.1M -- this week on the Illinois Senate race, which has become ground zero for both parties this year. It is also spending $770K in the Colorado race, $505K in Missouri and $557K in Nevada against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D).

The group is doling out less money in Kentucky and Florida. It is spending $345K against Attorney General Jack Conway (D) in Kentucky and $340K against Gov. Charlie Crist (I) in Florida.

All told, American Crossroads has spent more than $3.4M in the Colorado Senate race, $2.2M in Illinois and $1.2M in Missouri.

The DCCC formalized its triage operation on Tuesday, moving money out of battleground races where it looks like Republicans have already marshaled significant leads.

In six districts -- three open seats previously held by Democrats and three with Democratic incumbents -- the DCCC has canceled its ad buys for the remainder of the cycle, according to sources in the party. The cancellations are the clearest sign yet that the Democrats view these seats as out of reach.

In another four districts, the DCCC has reduced the size of its ad buys but still has reservations made through Election Day. These adjustments are in districts where Democrats have been running behind, but are still within striking distance of their Republican opponents.

And in two more districts, the DCCC has cancelled ad reservations from a position of strength; their candidates are running well ahead of Republican nominees.

Taken together, the ad buy movement shows the DCCC is making its final adjustments to its TV strategy. The DCCC is taking the money and investing it in races where it believes it has a better shot of winning in November.Hotline On Call reported last week that the DCCC was beginning to pull out of some races. The shifts on Tuesday, however, are particularly significant because some TV stations require cancellations to be made two weeks in advance. So, if the DCCC wanted to get their money out of races for the week before Election Day, they had to do so by Tuesday.

The DCCC has pulled ad reservations for Reps. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA), Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL) and Steve Driehaus (D-OH) -- three incumbents believe to be facing steep uphill fights this year.

It has also pulled out of three open seat races. In IN 08,, state Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D) will not be able to count on any more support from the DCCC in his race against heart surgeon Larry Bucshon (R). The committee also cancelled a significant portion of its ads in TN 08, where state Sen. Roy Herron (D) is running against Republican Stephen Fincher. The committee has also continued cutting time in KS 03, where Stephene Moore (D) is running for her husband's seat.

Five more House Democrats, including a 28-year veteran, a 30-year veteran, and a 36-year veteran, have moved out of the Solid Democratic column and into the Likely Democratic column: AZ 07 (Grijalva), MA 04 (Frank), MN 08 (Oberstar), NM 03 (Lujan) and TX 27 (Ortiz).

House Editor David Wasserman notes, "While all five are still favored to win reelection, Republican candidates are using the congressional longevity of Reps. Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), Barney Frank (MA-04), and Jim Oberstar (MN-08) against them, and new internal GOP polls suggest closer than expected races. Nervous Democrats are cognizant that many long-term incumbents up for re-election in '94 ultimately fell. In this kind of political environment, many underfunded and B-grade GOP candidates can and will be competitive on Election Night."

AZ 07 Raul Grijalva (D) - Solid D To Likely D
MA 04 Barney Frank (D) - Solid D To Likely D
MN 08 Jim Oberstar (D) - Solid D To Likely D
NM 03 Ben Ray Lujan (D) - Solid D To Likely D
TX 27 Solomon Ortiz (D) - Solid D To Likely D

Meeting for the second time in four days, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) and businessman Ron Johnson (R) exchanged blows Monday night over familiar themes including the health care overhaul and the economy in a debate that grew testy during a discussion of the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision reached earlier this year. With one more debate on the horizon on Oct. 22 and three weeks of campaigning left, here's a look at what each candidate accomplished during their respective debate performances on Friday and Monday and what it all means for the final three weeks of the race.

After dispatching attacks on the economy, Social Security and foreign policy, the two candidates were presented during Monday's debate with a question about the SCOTUS Citizens United decision that mitigated campaign spending restrictions. "It's easily one of the worst decisions in the history of the Supreme Court," declared Feingold.

"I think campaign finance reform should be pretty simple," said Johnson. "I would be for total transparency and immediate, or at least very rapid, reporting on the internet."

"He's hiding behind ads that are nasty attack ads from out of state and he refuses to call on them to stop," Feingold fired back at Johnson. Feingold then repeatedly urged Johnson to call on third party groups to disclose the source of their donations. Johnson said the groups' right to free speech allowed them to run the ads.

"I'd be happy to have them disclose," responded Johnson. Feingold shot right back, saying, "Well then why don't you ask them to do it?" Johnson answered by simply saying, "Disclose."

Organizations opposing Feingold account for the lion's share of the total dollars spent by outside groups in the race.

AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka announced Tuesday that the union has expanded the number of House races it is playing in this year and, according to the union's new polling, their efforts are helping Democrats close the enthusiasm gap in key races.

The union is going to wade into 100 House districts before Election Day, up from the 80 it originally announced, Trumka said. They are also currently playing in 18 Senate races and 14 governor's races. Including state legislature races, the AFL-CIO is in approximately 400 races country wide.

Trumka also released a new poll that found union members are increasingly enthusiastic about the election as a result of their field program. The nationwide survey found since the AFL-CIO's field program kicked off in July, union members support Democrats 35% more than the general public on a generic ballot test.

There are 37 Democrat held House seats in play this year that have significant union populations, Trumka said. If the AFL-CIO can help Democrats hold on to half of these seats, it would be virtually impossible for the GOP to win back the House.

"Union voters are the firewall for candidates that support working families," Trumka said.

Specifically, Trumka pointed to the Ohio governor's race as an example of where their efforts are already making a difference. The AFL-CIO has dedicated a significant amount of resources to the Buckeye State since July, and recently Gov. Ted Strickland (D) appears to be rebounding some in the polls but still trails former Rep. John Kasich (R).

In the last 30 days, the AFL-CIO has sent out 14.5M mail pieces to union members. The union estimates that approximately 25% to 30% of its members ship is composed of swing voters. In some tight races, the AFL-CIO believes those voters will make the difference. As of Oct. 1, half of the 17.5M union members, retirees and family members the AFL-CIO plans to target this year have been contacted at least once.

Trumka also acknowledged that the AFL-CIO may cut back efforts in some districts if they believe the incumbent Democrat has already lost the race. In one district where there is a significant number of union members, Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper's (D) PA 03, there have already been signs that Democrats are giving up on the race. The DCCC recently cut reserved TV ad reservations in Dahlkemper's district.

Trumka insisted, however, that the AFL-CIO has not pulled out of any races yet.

Nevada Republican Senate contender Sharron Angle hauled in an eye-popping $14M in the third quarter for her bid to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D).

The Fix was the first to report the fundraising total.

The number is jaw dropping. It is by far the most we've seen raised by a Republican Senate challenger so far, and it means that Angle will be able to blunt Reid's significant cash on hand advantage. At the end of the second quarter, Reid had $8M in his bank account to Angle's $1.76M.

Just a week ago, Republican challengers Marco Rubio (FL) and Dino Rossi (WA) announced third quarter hauls of $5M and $4.5M, respectively. At the time, those numbers looks impressive but they now pale in comparison to Angle's.

While it remains to be seen where Angle's money came from, it is likely she is enjoying support from individual donors around the country. Angle has said she is able to use appearances on Fox News and other national outlets to raise her profile, and in turn, raise significant amounts of cash.

Much as Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) attracted contributions nationwide by representing the filibuster breaking 41st GOP vote in the Senate, an Angle victory would represents a hugely symbolic GOP victory against the Democratic Majority Leader.

Another connection between Angle and Brown: Angle is using the same consulting firm that Brown used for online fundraising. Brown raised a whopping $14M the month before his special election win.

Rep. Scott Murphy, a Democrat from a swing district in upstate New York, is the third House Democrat to say he won't commit to supporting Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for Speaker next year if the Democrats hold on to the House.

Murphy's remarks, reported in the Albany Times Union, are significant because they are the first from a Democrat not from a deeply conservative district to break ranks with Pelosi. They are yet another sign of the difficult landscape Democrats are facing; if Murphy feels he has to break with Pelosi in his district that gave Pres. Obama 51% in '08, expect others in tight races to do the same.

"We'll see," Murphy told the newspaper. "We'll see what happens when the election's over and we'll look at the leadership. I have not been involved in a leadership election or that process...I think that I haven't spent any time working on that issue. I'm really focused on getting through this election season and figuring out where we go from there."

Murphy has benefited from Pelosi's support. After he won the special election for the seat in '09, Murphy attended a New York City fundraiser hosted by Pelosi and Pres. Obama.

Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL) was the first Democrat to say he wouldn't back Pelosi for Speaker in remarks last week. That statement wasn't as surprising, however, as Bright's district is extremely conservative and Bright has done everything he can to distance himself from the Democratic leadership.

Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR) has also indicated that he would be open to considering other members for Speaker next year.

Republicans are pushing back on recent Democratic polling that shows Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) leading Republican challenger Dave Schweikert in Arizona's 5th District.

An internal Schweikert campaign poll leaked to Hotline On Call shows Schweikert leading Mitchell by a 45% to 43% margin. The poll was conducted by National Research Inc. on Oct. 5 and 6 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Those numbers contrast recent Democratic numbers we've seen. The DCCC released an internal poll on Monday that showed Mitchell leading 46% to 39%. That poll was conducted during the same time frame and had the same margin of error. Other recent Democratic polling has also showed the race to be either tied, or with Mitchell holding a slight lead.

The dueling polls illustrate the need for both committees to control the spin cycle this week as important decisions are made about which races are worth spending in and which are already decided. The NRCC and DCCC have already begun shifting TV ad money around based on polls like these.

Despite the Democratic spin, both polls paint a troubling picture for Mitchell's re-election prospects, given that he's polling under the 50 percent mark despite being a well-known figure in the district, serving as mayor of Tempe for over a decade.

Arizona is particularly important to the NRCC. The GOP is looking to pick up three seats in the state this year, and Mitchell is a top target.

It's already been a rough week for Republican Carl Paladino's New York gubernatorial campaign and it looks like the hits are going to keep on coming.

In a previously unreleased video obtained by Hotline On Call, Paladino has some choice words for Attorney General Eric Holder when asked about holding terrorist trials in New York City.

Questioner: "If you were the chief executive of New York, what would your response be to the attorney general of the United States deciding to hold terrorist trials in Manhattan?"

Paladino: "F*** him. F*** him."

The video was captured at a town hall meeting on March 26 in Tappan, NY.

Paladino's remarks came after the the White House abandoned a plan to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in New York City at the end of January. The plan sparked protests and eventually the White House decided against against it.

After Paladino's remarks about homosexuality on Sunday, this is another example of the Republican's unpredictability on the stump. It may also explain why former Rep. Rick Lazio (R) didn't take him seriously in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

Check out the video below, the question begins about 2 minutes in.

Updated, 1:05 p.m.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. We are three weeks from Election Day and here's what's on Hotline On Call's radar screen this morning: Meg Whitman (R) prepares to go on the attack; the NRCC pulls money out of two more races where they are confident they have leads; the DGA stays on the attack in Connecticut and Russ Feingold (D) lands some jabs in Monday night's Senate debate.

Whitman Wages War: Expect the recording of one of former Gov. Jerry Brown's (D) aides referring to former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) as a "whore" to play a big -- and contentious -- role in their debate Tuesday night. A source familiar with Whitman's debate preparations said flatly, "He's going to have to answer for that."

The source pointed out that Brown has been noticeably absent from the campaign trail since the story broke last Friday.

"He's been in hiding," the source said. "He's going to have to say something." http://lat.ms/b4T5Ht

More House Ad Movement: The NRCC is beginning the process it has been waiting for all cycle: Moving money out of ad reservations in races where it believes it already has a significant lead so it can pour that money into more competitive contests.

Following news that the DCCC has canceled its ad reservations on behalf of Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) in OH 1, the NRCC has also taken its money out of that district, according to committee sources. It has also cut its ads in the last week of the campaign in TX 17, where businessman Bill Flores appears to have a solid lead on Rep. Chet Edwards (D).

Don't Miss: The Hotline's Reid Wilson and National Journal's Susan Davis host a Midterm Cram Session at a National Journal Live event. You can tune in online here: http://bit.ly/8YYWjE

In a reversal of roles, Republicans are attacking Democrats for supporting policies that would outsource jobs overseas and, in particular, to China.

The strategy is political jujitsu: Hotline On Call reported last week that Democrats were increasingly making outsourcing their go-to economic attack line this year. Democrats have long charged that Republicans support policies backed by Wall Street and big business that, ultimately, send jobs overseas. Now, Republicans are trying to use the issue -- and the electorate's anxiety toward outsourcing -- to their advantage.

In at least one Senate race and a handful of House races, Republicans have begun airing ads that attack Democrats for backing the economic stimulus package and claiming that the bill has sent jobs overseas. After the stimulus passed, an investigative report found that the bill sent a significant amount of money to wind energy companies based abroad.

And because of that legislation, which itself isn't particularly popular in many swing districts, Republicans are capitalizing on a populist attack that they themselves faced in recent cycles.

"Republicans have always been the targets of these attacks," said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. "For us to turn it around on them is definitely a new tactic."

Republicans say the ads are testing very well because they hit on several themes running through the electorate this cycle. Of course, there is the concern about unemployment. The ads also tap into a populist sentiment typically not seen in Republican ads and play on a concern that the U.S. is mortgaging its future to China.

"The bottom line," said Republican pollster Tyler Harber, "is that it's a nuanced approach to a larger issue. Voters are really angry and one way to leverage that anger is to say that not only are Democrats spending a lot of money, but they are spending it outside the United States. American voters could not be more angry about that."

One of the best examples is the spot Republican businessman Ron Johnson aired Sunday during the Green Bay Packers game in Wisconsin. Johnson has been attacked repeatedly for supporting outsourcing by Sen. Russ Feingold (D) and sought to turn the tables with the ad.

"Feingold voted the party line for the stimulus bill that allowed U.S. tax dollars to go to foreign companies to create manufacturing jobs overseas," the narrator said.

Inside-the-Beltway analysts, ourselves included, are obsessed with the money game. Every time the DCCC or NRCC reports its monthly numbers, it's another measurement of a party's poise, power and prowess. But, it turns out, everyone got the story very wrong.

-- In truth, the party-affiliated cmtes are not the ones driving the conversation. It's the outside groups that have dominated the airwaves. The DSCC, for example, has spent about $13.5M on independent expenditures. American Crossroads alone has spent nearly $13.2M on their own ads against Dem Senate candidates. Add in the Chamber of Commerce and its $25M spent so far -- with $50M left to go in just the next 3 weeks -- and the GOP has a clear advantage. And we didn't even mention the NRSC, which still has millions more to spend.

-- Pres. Obama was prescient in lambasting SCOTUS's Citizens United decision so many months ago. The 5-4 ruling, along with other similar lower court rulings in the last year or so, has benefited the GOP to a lopsided degree, and it'll cost Dems seats this year.

-- But that doesn't mean Obama's campaign finance rhetoric makes good politics. An Oct. 19 New York Times story decimated Dems' Chamber-uses-foreign-money complaint, and the White House has admitted to everyone who asks they have no proof it's true. With unemployment at 9.6%, voters can be forgiven if what's fascinating to Beltway types isn't at the top of their minds.

It's a little soon to get nostalgic about the '10 election cycle, but in Florida's Senate race, it's easy to see what the end result will most likely be, and what could have been.

The race had the potential to be the most exciting race of the year. Its themes nicely sum up the '10 midterms -- an insurgent Tea Party candidate, an incumbent Republican felled by moderate tendencies, Pres. Obama's purple-state toxicity, party switches, a solid-but-never-stellar Democratic candidate.

When former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) first began to surge against Gov. Charlie Crist (then-R), political observers got very excited about a drag-out primary fight, especially since Florida's late primary date (Aug. 24) afforded a lot of time for bickering. But Crist's bolt from the party in April ruined those hopes. That disappointment was assuaged, however, by the specter of a formidable third-party candidate making a legitimate run in the general election. Pollsters and strategists furiously worked out scenarios of exact percentages Crist would need from each party to win, and how Crist could navigate the tricky waters to claim an unlikely victory.

Amidst the summertime Gulf oil spill crisis, Crist looked like he was set to do exactly that. But his daily national press appearances masked the coverage he got locally regarding his rapid shifts to the left on everything from "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" to same-sex adoption. These shifts, mostly on social issues, alienated him from his remaining Republican supporters, who quickly landed in Rubio's camp.

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) has attempted to distract Democrats from their Crist attraction to little avail. With Crist and Meek largely splitting the Democratic vote, and with independents torn between Crist and Rubio, Rubio took the poll lead due to his Republican base and never looked back. Attacks by Meek and Crist on Rubio's Social Security stance have made a slight impact - Rubio has backtracked from his earlier statements favoring privatization - but with absentee balloting already started, Rubio's poll lead average is well above 10 points and doesn't look like it's abating any time soon.

If there was doubt in the minds of West Virginians that Gov. Joe Manchin isn't your typical Democrat, he sought to remove it with an ad on Monday that looks like one a conservative Republican would run in the deep South.

In the ad, which begins running statewide in West Virginia on Monday, Manchin carries a rifle and literally fires away at the Democrats' signature cap and trade energy legislation.

"I'll take on Washington and this Administration to get the federal government off of our backs and out of our pockets," Manchin says.

"I sued the EPA and I'll take dead aim at the cap and trade bill," he adds, and says he'd repeal "parts" of Obama's health care bill. "Cause it's bad for West Virginia."

The ad is striking because is encapsulates everything that has happened in the West Virginia Senate race between Manchin and businessman John Raese (R) so far. Manchin, who has enjoyed high approval ratings throughout his term as governor, is struggling because Raese has effectively tied him to Pres. Obama and national Democratic leadership.

Check it out below.

Updated, 2:17 p.m.

The NRCC has spent nearly $8M on TV ads this week, signaling its intent to put away vulnerable Democrats before the DCCC goes into districts to try to help them.

In sum, the NRCC has spent $7.8M on ads in more than 50 districts this week. The ad buys are significant because this is the last week where the NRCC will largely have the airwaves to itself. The DCCC has reserved the majority of its resources for ads in the final two week of the campaign, allowing it to tactically pick where to spend.

The big spending shows that the NRCC wants to lock up the races now so it can turn its attention elsewhere.

It is worth noting that this is the third week in a row where the NRCC has significantly outspent the DCCC on ads. The risk they are running is that if they can't do enough damage to these Democrats by the end of this week, they will be at a cash on hand disadvantage when the DCCC deploys their considerable resources next week.

The committee dished out some of its largest ad buys to date this week, spending at least $100K in nearly 30 districts. It spent the most in Rep. Betsy Markey's (D) CO 04, airing $417K worth of ads. It also spent $384K on Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) and $346K targeting Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH). This is the first time the NRCC has spent in Shea-Porter's district.

Republicans also went up for the first time in several districts, including ads targeting Reps. Shea-Porter, John Salazar (D-CO), Harry Teague (D-NM), Charlie Wilson (D-OH), Zack Space (D-OH), Glenn Nye (D-VA), Phil Hare (D-IL) and Tim Walz (D-MN).

The committee has also spent big on several open seats. It is targeting Ann McLane Kuster (D) for the first time in the open seat race in NH 02, airing $150K worth of ads this week. Further, in the open WA 03 seat, the NRCC has spent $302K attacking former state Rep. Denny Heck (D). And in TN 08, Republicans spent $199K targeting state Sen. Roy Herron (D).

The NRCC has also placed particularly large buys Ohio's expensive media markets, targeting Reps. Space and John Boccieri with $233K and $213K, respectively.

In 29 of these races, the NRCC also debuted new ads this week. You can check them out here.

Happy Columbus Day and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. What we at The Hotline are watching today: Yet another two previously safe Democrats now appear to be vulnerable; the White House's attack on third party groups hits a speed bump but the DCCC amplifies the attack; Russ Feingold (D) faces off against Ron Johnson (R) again, this time with some new ammo; intensity ramps up in West Virginia; the wheels come off for Paladino and Pres. Obama heads to Florida.

Red Alert For House Dems: Democratic concerns about the House playing field broadening to record levels appear to only be getting worse as reports that Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Maurice Hinchey (D-NY) are vulnerable surfaced over the weekend.

These are two members that have long been viewed as safely Democratic. Pres. Obama carried Grijalva's majority Hispanic district with 57% in '08. Grijalva, confident that he was safe, even called on Americans to boycott his own state in protest of Arizona's controversial immigration law, a measure that Republicans are confident is badly hurting Democratic prospects across the board in the state.

Similarly, Obama carried Hinchey's Poughkeepsie-based seat - which includes the college town of Ithaca -- with 59% in '08.

News of their vulnerability follows polling that Rep. John Dingell (D-MI), who has served in the House since 1955, is seriously vulnerable, as well as House Democratic Caucus Chairman John Larson (D-CT), who represents a Hartford-based seat that gave Obama 66 percent of the vote in 2008.

If these seats are even closely competitive on Election Night, Dems are facing the prospect of an epic bloodbath - one that could make 1994 seem like a walk in the park. http://politi.co/9UtQri

Chamber Attack Backfiring? The White House's attacks on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce hit a few road bumps over the weekend. The New York Times reported that the Chamber isn't doing anything unusual with how it collects its dues - no different than labor organizations that frequently back Democratic candidates. On CBS's "Face The Nation," Bob Schieffer pointedly asked White House advisor David Axelrod, "is that the best you can do?"

Obama toned down the attacks a little bit at his Philadelphia rally yesterday. The fact that the White House is focused on an inside-baseball campaign finance issue, instead of the economy shows how bad the political environment is for Democrats this year. http://nyti.ms/cBwtfi

DCCC Gets In On The Act: Democrats, however, aren't backing down. The DCCC is launching a "significant" online ad campaign on Monday targeting conservative third party groups. The two web ads, obtained by Hotline On Call, read: "Don't Let Them Buy Congress, Stand Up And Fight Back" and "Shady GOP Front Groups, Foreign Corporations, Big Insurance, Wall Street Tycoons." It's unclear how effective a campaign tactic this will be, but it is sure to help Democrats raise money.

What we at The Hotline took away from this week:

-- A lot has been written about the influence of former Pres. Bill Clinton out on the stump this cycle. Not to be overlooked: His presence in New England. For two New England Democrats locked in close gubernatorial contests, Clinton has resurfaced as a factor during the last couple of weeks. Clinton campaigned for former state House Speaker Libby Mitchell (D) in Maine at the end of September, and just this week, Treasuer Frank Caprio (D) launched a TV ad in Rhode Island featuring the former president. National Democrats have their set their sights on both states -- the DGA has been up on TV in both places -- so watch for future appearances by Clinton down the stretch.

-- Credit has to be given to Sen. Michael Bennet's (D-CO) campaign. Bennet is running ahead of other Dems are in equally purple states, mostly due to his (and the DSCC's) savvy attacks of Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) as "too extreme." Buck even acknowledges that fact in a recent Denver Post interview, saying: "He's created these issues to keep me on my heels and to keep us from talking about the issues that the voters in Colorado want to talk about. And, to a certain extent, he has been successful."

Bennet has kept this race close so far, but the DSCC and his campaign will have to blanket the airwaves to counter the outside GOP groups' onslaught in the coming weeks. Keep an eye on Bennet and Buck's 3rd Quarter fundraising numbers when they announce -- Bennet needs to have a lot in the bank for the last week, and Buck needs to come back from awful fundraising during the primary and prove that it's not just third-parties responsible for his possible victory.

-- Regardless of whether you believe any single poll in the avalanche that are coming out these days, it's clear that the House GOP is advancing heavily onto GOP turf. Heretofore solid Reps. John Dingell (D-MI), Charlie Wilson (D-OH) and Jim Oberstar (D-MN) may be able to pull through on Election Night, but the fact polls show them in serious danger three weeks out is yet another sign that the GOP wave is certainly not abating.

-- It's becoming something of a weekly refrain in this space, but it's worth mentioning once again that all public polls are not equal, and most should be taken with a grain of salt. Two weeks after finding New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) leading by only six points each in the gubernatorial and Senate special election, respectively, Quinnipiac Univ. this week found Cuomo up by 18 points and Gillibrand 21 points ahead of her GOP rival. Yes, things can change over the course of two weeks, but most pollsters are still fine-tuning their likely-voter screens at this late stage of the campaign, trying to get a better idea of not just who is excited to vote, but who is actually going to vote.

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Illinois Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) clashed in their first Senate debate on Sunday, meeting in a venue befitting a race with national implications - NBC's "Meet the Press."

The race has been intensely negative so far, with Giannoulias' Broadway Bank issues and Kirk's past misstatements on his military record dominating the back and forth between the campaigns. Sunday's debate was no different, as both sides hit each other on those themes.

Appropriately, the debate was also host David Gregory's first on MTP since he took over in December of '08. Gregory, interviewed by Hotline On Call afterward, noted the significance of hosting the two men vying for Pres. Obama's old seat and the influence of the president's policies on the race.

"I think the question of Obama's leadership is very germane in Obama's old Senate seat," Gregory said, noting the national significance of a Republican possibly winning. "We looked at the coverage and noticed how the issues have somehow gotten lost, and I was determined that wasn't going to happen on my watch."

At the beginning of the debate, Gregory's determination held. The discussion first centered on the national debt, with Kirk bringing every question back to his message of fiscal responsibility. When Gregory mentioned the GOP's history of the growing the debt in recent years, Kirk conceded his party had lost his way and that he's "become very much of a fiscal hawk."

"The Congressman calls himself a fiscal hawk," Giannoulias shot back, noting that extending all Bush tax cuts would increase the deficit. "The Congressman has told some real whoppers during the campaign, but that may be the worst."

Former Sen. George Allen (R-VA) told reporters Saturday that a '12 Senate bid is not off the table, but that his priority is with the ongoing midterms.

Allen, who has been questioned on the matter since he mentioned in July that he was "perhaps" interested in reprising his Washington seat, said following his speech at the Virginia Tea Party Patriots Convention in Richmond: "I'm focused on the 2010 elections, and helping out the outstanding candidates we have here in Virginia, as well as helping out folks like Marco Rubio and [Rob] Portman and [Roy] Blunt and so forth...As far as next elections, I'll consider that afterward. There have been a lot of people who have encouraged Susan [his wife] and me to get back in--a lot of them here at this convention--and it's nice to hear that. It's something one takes into consideration."

Allen also said he believes "this year and 2012 will set the trajectory of our country," a sentiment touted earlier in the day by another former Virginia senator.

Following a familiar pattern, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) told convention-goers that changes in Washington "are not going to happen in one election. It's not going to happen if we elect 100 Representatives to Congress on our side. It's not going to happen overnight."

Texas Rep. Ron Paul (R) told reporters Saturday that the bulk of the economic crisis is yet to come, and that a White House '12 bid largely hinges on his anticipated fall of the U.S. dollar.

Prior to appearing before the Virginia Tea Party Patriots Convention in Richmond, Paul called a complete implosion of the U.S. currency system "95% likely... [because] right now the whole world is racing to beat their currencies because they think it's going to help trade...But let me tell you, if the bombs started to fall on Iran, hold your hat, because that would be, I believe, the end of our dollar system. And we would have a real skirmish to find out what we're going to replace this government with."

Paul's "End of Dollar Hegemony" is nothing we haven't heard before from the Congressman, but at this point it's largely indicative of his decision to run for president in '12. He is slated to speak at the University of Iowa later this month, an appearance many pundits have pegged as his first WH stump in the critical caucus state. He denied that rumor today, saying, "I don't any precise plans for 2012. I don't have an organization [in Iowa], and there are some who are very well organized. It's a long way off, and events can change quickly, and I believe sincerely we're moving toward a much more major economic crisis. Depending on where we are on that might help me make that decision."

Paul has something to prove at this weekend's convention if a run for the White House is indeed in the cards. He fell hard last month in a presidential straw poll at the Values Voters Summit in Washington, coming in second-to-last behind Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R). Although his speech today, which covered everything from "getting rid of the IRS and income tax" to the "fantastic product" of hemp, was warmly received, it came after the polls had closed.

Check back for results of the poll later this afternoon.

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) thrilled the crowd at the Virginia Tea Party Convention in Richmond Friday when he backed the idea of a constitutional amendment that would authorize states to repeal federal legislation if two-thirds of the states agree.

"Yes, I support it," McDonnell said to deafening ovation at the largest recorded Tea Party gathering in the group's history. "Jefferson and the Founding Fathers understood that when they wrote the Constitution, the only way to write it...was to include a Bill of Rights to strike that balance between a really strong central government and the liberties of the people."

The so-called Repeal Amendment has become a favorite advocacy point for Tea Party members, who have cited it as a reinforcement of the 10th amendment. No doubt they appreciated the endorsement from McDonnell, the poster child for fiscal conservatism since balancing Virginia's $4.2B budget deficit.

McDonnell's very participation in the convention is contentious, given the event's anti-GOP sentiment. Taking the stage earlier today, media personality Dick Morris delighted cheering supporters when he said the Tea Party was "purging the Republican party."

Meet the Press hosts an IL SEN debate between Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep Mark Kirk (R), Time's Joe Klein and Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan.

Face the Nation hosts WH sr. adviser Daivd Axelrod and ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie.

This Week hosts CT SEN nominees Linda McMahon (R) and Richard Blumenthal (D), ex-Pakistan Pres. Pervez Musharraf and France's Finance Minister Christine Lagarde.

Fox News Sunday, with Bret Baier, hosts Reps. Eric Cantor, (R-VA) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), ex-Bush adviser Karl Rove and Dem consultant Joe Trippi.

State of the Union hosts DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), ret. Gen. Michael Hayden, GOP strategist Whit Ayres and Dem pollster Celinda Lake.

Other Weekend Shows

Political Capital features Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) (Bloomberg, FRI, 7pm).

The DSCC is moving TV ad money out of Missouri, a sign that the Senate race may be moving beyond Democrats' grasp.

Four Republican sources who monitor media buying and three Missouri TV stations have confirmed to Hotline On Call that the DSCC has canceled reservations from Oct. 11 to Oct. 25. The DSCC still has reservations in Missouri for the last week before Election Day.

"Yes, the weeks of Oct. 12 and Oct. 19 have been canceled for the DSCC in our station," Sean Kellerman of WDAF, the Kansas City, MO, FOX affiliate, said.

"They have requested cancellations," said Amy Warren of KCTV, Kansas City's CBS affiliate.

As with all ad buy changes, it is worth keeping in mind that they are fluid and can change at any time. The DSCC could still go on the air in Missouri during this time period, but it would have to pay a higher ad rate than it first reserved.

But at this point, it appears as though the DSCC moving money out of the state. The ad cancellations are an indication that national Democrats are growing bearish on Secretary of State Robin Carnahan's (D) chances against Rep. Roy Blunt (R), as polling shows Blunt with a sizable lead.

They also underline the fact that Democrats are increasingly on defense this year; the open Missouri Senate seat was one of their top opportunities to win a GOP-held seat. (Kentucky being the other.)

The ad buys also show that the DSCC is having to rethink where to invest. Recently, the DSCC has had to air ads to play defense in Connecticut and West Virginia, two open seats that were considered sure things for Democrats at the beginning of the cycle.

The DSCC has invested heavily in the Missouri race so far, shelling out $1.8M on three ads.

Democrats are showing no qualms showering some of their most obstinate members with campaign cash, as conservative Democrats are increasingly looking like the firewall that could save a House majority.

Bucking the Democratic party, it appears, is not hurting their chances in receiving assistance from the Democratic party leadership.

In three of the four districts where the DCCC's independent arm has shelled out the most cash so far, the incumbent Democrat broke with House leadership on one or more of the key House votes on health care reform, cap-and-trade legislation or the economic stimulus package. One, Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL), has gone so far as to joke that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) would die before the next session of Congress and, on Thursday, said he won't vote for her to be Speaker again.

The aggressive spending on behalf of some of the Democratic party's least reliable members underscores the difficult landscape that the DCCC faces this year. In most of these districts, Democratic incumbents have to side with Republicans to appease very conservative electorates. That means the DCCC has to shell out big bucks to hold on to districts that, in all likelihood, are more-suited ideologically for a Republicans. And if these types of members win re-election, they are as likely to side with Republicans in a much more closely-divided Congress no matter which party is in charge.

It also shows that the DCCC is picking up the slack where liberal outside groups aren't spending. In three of these districts, the incumbent's conservative votes have made them enemies of labor and other progressive groups and, so far, those groups aren't funneling money into their districts.

So far, the DCCC has spent the most money on Bright ($626K), Rep. Larry Kissell (D-NC) ($624K), Rep. Mark Schauer (D-MI) ($458K) and Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD) ($442K).

The Cook Political Report changed ratings in 26 House races today.

House Editor David Wasserman writes, "In October '06, the 'last minute surprise' races were typically Democratic-leaning seats where personally popular moderate Republicans were washed away by the national wave. If '10 is a mirror image of '06, Democrats are now fearful of an eleventh hour GOP surge in Republican districts against personally popular conservative veteran Democrats.

Republican control of the House isn't a done deal, but the chances of Republican gains in excess of 45 seats are still better than their chances of falling short of 40 seats. Overall, as early voting gets underway in many states and the DCCC gets a late start on its independent expenditure effort, there are now 22 Democratic seats in the Lean or Likely Republican columns, 38 Democratic seats in the Toss Up column, and an additional 30 Democratic seats are in the Lean Democratic column. Just two GOP seats are in the Lean Democratic column. Overall, we view 78 incumbents in 37 states as vulnerable, including 75 Democrats and just three Republicans."

Check out all the changes after the jump.

Despite the letter next to his name, businessman Mike McWherter (D) is hitting similar issues raised against Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) by his GOP primary opponents.

In particular, McWherter has hit Haslam for not disclosing his full income, his ties to Pilot Corp. and his fundraising. Those are topics Rep. Zach Wamp (R) and LG Ron Ramsey (R) pursued during the first half of the year when Haslam became the clear favorite to win the GOP primary. Compare quotes, such as when McWherter said last month that Haslam "refuses to disclose his income level or his income sources. I am fully disclosed."

Wamp charged in May that Haslam "can't refuse to disclose the details of his ownership of Pilot Oil, while at the same time continuing to financially benefit from Pilot's business dealings with a state government he hopes to lead." McWherter also picked apart Haslam's business dealings, saying "Everyone knows oilmen are extremely wealthy and that the Haslam family are wealthy. This is about who Bill Haslam owes and the type of people he surrounds himself with in business."

Wamp associated oil with wealth on multiple occasions, such as when he challenged Haslam in July to "come out from behind his big oil money and advertising curtain and debate these issues publicly with me before the voters of this state."

There are currently six appointed members of the Senate, and as Congress returns for a lame duck session in November, there is a question of when their terms expire. If Republicans pick up any of these seats in this year, it could change the partisan composition of the Senate before the next Congress convenes.

It's a very complicated issue. Federal law trumps state law on these matters and the Senate also has its say, according to former Senate Parliamentarian Robert Dove, who is now a public policy specialist with Patton Boggs. Once the election of the new senator is certified, the governor signs the certificate, and the newly elected senator must appear on the Senate floor to present these credentials.

This would be a straight-forward exercise if not for the lame duck session. It will be a particularly tricky issue for three of the six new Senators who are being elected to full six-year terms and the question of when they can be seated becomes one of timing - and politics. Only Illinois has addressed the issue by putting the Senate race on the ballot twice; once for the full term and again for the remainder of this Congress. Colorado and Florida have not made such provisions.

The unemployment rate held at 9.6% in September but the economy lost 95K jobs, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.

That unemployment rate held steady beat most economists' expectations. A survey of economists by Thomson Reuters released Thursday predicted that the unemployment rate would rise from 9.6% to 9.7%.

The job loss number, however, is worse than projections. Most analysts expected an even line between jobs lost and jobs created. The September jobs report, however, shows that the economy cut 95K jobs while the private sector created only 64K jobs.

A significant amount of job loss came in the government sector, as another 77K census workers completed their temporary assignments. In all, 159K government workers lost their positions.

The private sector added another 64K jobs, led by growth in the health care, tourism and business service industries.

Politically, the jobs report still spells bad news for Democrats. The report will give fuel to Republican claims that the Democrats have not created jobs at a fast enough pace.

Many Democrats in tight races have already begun trying to shift the focus in their races to Republicans supporting policies that lead to outsourcing jobs.

The jobs report will put further pressure on the Federal Reserve. In the run up to Friday's report, there was a growing expectation that the Fed would step in to stimulate the economy if the numbers were poor. One option, according to various reports, would be for the Fed to once again begin buying Treasury bonds in an effort to lower the interest rate and spur borrowing and spending.

Good Friday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. On the agenda today: Boehner makes his closing argument against Obama, the last jobs report before Election Day brings bad news for Democrats; Jerry Brown steps in it; the Massachusetts governor's race takes a turn for the bizarre; and Joe Biden stumps in Seattle.

Boehner Takes On Obama: House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) will be ratcheting up his rhetoric against Pres. Obama on the stump on Friday. At an event in West Chester, OH, Boehner makes argues that Obama and the Democrats are completely out of touch with the American people, and have little understanding about business - and said the midterms are a referendum on the Democrats' handling of the economy.

"The very structure of Congress right now is rigged in favor of spending. If we're going to confront the massive challenges that lie ahead for our country, the American people understand this has to change," Boehner will say, according to prepared remarks. "The bottom line is this: to help our economy create jobs, we have to stop all of the coming tax hikes and cut spending -- and to cut spending, we need to change Congress itself."

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Boehner's speech comes as the last jobs report before Election Day drops this morning at 8:30. Most signs indicate that it is not going to be a good one. Gallup's unemployment survey on Thursday showed that unemployment continued to rise in September, over 10 percent. If unemployment goes up from the 9.6% it was in August, it'll be another sign that Democrats are in a world of hurt.

The states where unemployment has been highest have been states where Senate Democrats have struggled most. Nevada, for example, had 14.4% unemployment in August. California, where Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) faces a tough re-election, has a 12.4% unemployment rate.

A sign of how bad it's become: At an event for Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Tom Barrett (D) on Thursday, Vice Pres. Joe Biden exclaimed: "You're the dullest audience I've ever spoken to...Do you realize how many jobs Wisconsin lost? It's staggering!" http://bit.ly/cMa0ej

After a week of headlines about his threats against an influential reporter his unsubstantiated accusation that his opponent committed adultery, New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino bought three minutes of TV air time on upstate stations. No apologies were forthcoming.

Paladino accused the news media of digging into his personal life -- including an extra-marital affair that produced a child -- while ignoring that of his opponent, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D). Cuomo is divorced. His "prowess is legendary," Paladino said.

On that provocative note, Paladino does a 180-degree pivot.

"This campaign must be about the bigger issues," Paladino says, calling for lower taxes and an end to corruption in Albany. Cuomo should "come out and debate like a man," concludes Paladino -- even though he's the only one of several gov candidates who has not confirmed for an Oct. 18 debate at Hofstra University.

Based on the results of the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll, if the Republicans fail to score major gains in the Senate and House on Nov. 2 they already have their scapegoat -- Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele. This week, the Political Insiders were asked to judge which of their respective national party committees "is doing a better job in the run-up to the mid-term elections." When comparing the RNC to the Democratic National Committee, the 93 GOP Insiders who responded to the poll this week were withering in their assessment and 73% said that the DNC was out-performing the RNC. Only 15% said that the RNC was besting the DNC and 12% said neither committee had stood out.

In their comments, the GOP Insiders blamed the RNC's woes on chairman Steele who has wandered off message with verbal miscues and alienated GOP major donors. "Steele has been a huge disappointment, especially on the fundraising front," said one GOP Insider. Others used words like "embarrassment," "horrible" and "idiot" to describe Steele. "[DNC chairman] Tim Kaine is always on message, Michael Steele rotates which foot is in mouth," said another GOP Insider.

Indeed, Steele has been gaffe prone from practically the beginning of his rocky tenure as party chairman when he dismissed conservative hero and radio broadcaster Rush Limbaugh as an "entertainer." At the start of '10 when Republicans were beginning to see a path toward gaining control of the House he bluntly said, "not this year," and compounded that sin by wondering aloud whether the party was "ready" for that responsibility, adding, "I don't know." And in July Steele told a GOP fundraiser in Connecticut that Afghanistan was a war of "Obama's choosing." That brought a rebuke from the party's senior statesman on national security matters, Arizona Sen. John McCain (R). The party's '08 standard bearer called Steele's comments "wildly inaccurate" and said there was "no excuse" for them.

Still, more than one GOP Insider complimented the chairman. "While Michael Steele has taken heat for some public comments, he has put together a strong team at the RNC," said one. Others feel that a favorable political environment may yet carry the party and its chairman over the goal line. "Steele is a turkey, but strong winds might yet make him fly," cracked one GOP Insider.

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) was supposed to sail through this special election and replace the late Sen. Robert Bryd (D) with ease. One of the most popular governors in the country, he was re-elected in '08 with a record-high margin, nearly 70% of the vote. His opponent, businessman John Raese (R), is a perennial candidate who's never won a race.

But recent polling shows the race to be deadlocked, with some prognosticators even giving Raese the edge. So what happened to Manchin?

While Manchin is popular - he has some of the best job approval numbers in the country - Pres. Obama is dragging his numbers down. A recent Public Policy Polling survey found Obama's West Virginia approval rating to be a dismal 30%, with 64% of voters disapproving of him. Just 51% of Democrats approve of the job he's doing while 91% of Republicans and 73% of independents disapprove of his performance.

Manchin isn't struggling when it comes to support from outside groups. The governor has raked in endorsements from a dizzying array of groups representing diverse interests. The West Virginia and U.S. Chambers of Commerce have both endorsed him, as has the AFL-CIO -- making him the only '10 candidate to win the support of both groups. The NRA threw their support to him. The West Virginia Coal Association is behind him, as is the United Mine Workers of America.

But it's unclear what effect, if any, the endorsements are having on the race.

"When you look at national issues that have resonated with West Virginia voters, the governor has the endorsements of every single interest group that pops up as important to this electorate," said Marshall University Political Science prof. Marybeth Beller.

Pres. Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will attend a fundraiser for Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland on Oct. 17, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs announced Thursday. Obama will also attend a DNC fundraiser in Cleveland that night.

The administration has been showering a lot of attention on Ohio to help the embattled governor, who is trailing former Rep. John Kasich (R) by six to nine points in recent polls. Vice Pres. Joe Biden traveled to the state on Monday evening to host an event for him that was attended by about 100 people.

The First Lady is about to kick off a series of campaign events around the country. She will also be going to Wisconsin and Illinois on Oct. 13, Connecticut on Oct. 18 and Washington on Oct. 25. On Wednesday, she took part in a conference call with Organizing for America supporters in which she thanked them for their hard work and encouraged them to get energized for the next month.

"The president needs you once again. The president needs allies like all of you who will stand up with him in Washington as he stands up for the nation. These next 27 days we all are going to need to dig deep," she said on the call.

Here's something you don't see every day: A Democrat, locked in a tough Senate race in a state facing major environmental issues turning down the endorsement of the Sierra Club.

That's exactly what Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) did on Thursday. The Sierra Club wanted to endorse both Meek and Gov. Charlie Crist (I) in the three-way Senate race. Instead of accepting, Meek attacked the Sierra Club and, by extension, Crist.

"This election is about taking a stand and fighting for principles you believe in," Meek said in a statement. "Today's Sierra Club co-endorsement is an insult to Florida's environmental community. The Sierra Club has chosen to stand with a governor who stood on stage applauding as Sarah Palin chanted, 'Drill, Baby, Drill.'"

"I cannot in good conscience accept an endorsement from an organization that would stand with a governor who has consistently put developers, oil companies and the special interests first," Meek added.

The Sierra Club is a major political player, so it's hard to see how much Meek gains by doing this. It is, however, another example of Meek trying to run to the left of Crist to shore up the Democratic base.

It is also worth noting that Meek hasn't taken such principled stands against co-endorsements with Crist in the past. In May he accepted the endorsement of the Florida Education Association, which also backed Crist.

The Cook Political Report made several House, Senate and Governors ratings changes today:

FL SEN: Toss Up to Lean R - While Marco Rubio (R) and Kendrick Meek (D) have successfully undermined Republican-turned independent candidate Charlie Crist's candidacy, Rubio appears to have gained the upper hand in the race.

NH SEN: Toss Up to Lean R - Republican Kelly Ayotte has withstood a barrage of attacks from all corners, and yet has managed to maintain a positive profile with voters and a lead in the polls.

OK GOV: Lean R to Likely R - While GOP nominee Mary Falin must defend her role in an unpopular Congress, Democratic Lt. Gov. Jari Askins is hampered by having to run in a terrible climate for Democrats in one of the most Republican states in the nation.

TN GOV: Likely R to Solid R -- Having survived a tough GOP primary, wealthy businessman and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) was battle tested by the general election where he faces Democratic businessman Mike McWherter. Tennessee has had a Democratic Governor for the past eight years and voters are ready for a change.

NC 07 and WI 03: Likely D to Lean D- With the ratings on these races changing, Democrats now have 86 seats rated as Lean Democratic or worse compared to Republicans who have just seven seats rated as Lean Republican or worse.

The NRSC is pulling its controversial West Virginia Senate ad that features actors posing as native West Virginians.

GOP sources said they expect the ad to be taken down in light of new reports that it was filmed in Philadelphia, and that a casting call was looking for characters with a "'hicky' blue collar look," according to a report from Politico.

The hasty move to pull the ad is a sign Republicans are seriously concerned that the revelations could threaten John Raese's (R) surging candidacy in the Mountain State.

"No one at the NRSC, or associated with the NRSC, had anything to do with the language used in this casting call," said NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh. "We do not support it, and suffice to say, we would encourage our contractors to never work with this outside agency again."

Walsh also said that the use of actors is common in political ads from both parties.

"That being said, both parties often use actors in ads to convey a broad message and voters understand that," Walsh said.

Democrats are seeking to take advantage of the controversy. Early Thursday, Hotline On Call reported that Manchin is calling on Raese to apologize for insulting West Virginians.

West Virginia Republicans, however, said the ad will not influence the race. "I have no problem with it whatsoever," said Mike Stuart, the chairman of the West Virginia GOP. "What those folks said in that diner is what West Virginians are talking about. It's not going to be an issue here."

Check out the ad here.

Updated, 10:20 a.m.

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) on Thursday called for businessman John Raese (R) to apologize for an NRSC ad attacking him after finding out the spot was not filmed in West Virginia.

Early Thursday, Politico reported that a recent NRSC ad in West Virginia that presumably featured native West Virginians was actually shot in Philadelphia with actors. The actors had responded to a casting call looking for a "hicky," "blue collar look."

Manchin wasted no time Thursday calling the ad offensive.

"John Raese and his special interest friends have insulted the people of West Virginia and need to immediately apologize," Manchin said in a statement to Hotline On Call.

"Not only have they been spending millions to try and buy this election with lies and distortions, we can now see once and for all what he and his friends really think of West Virginia and our people," Manchin went on. "It's offensive and it only proves that John Raese has spent too much time in the state of Florida, living in his Palm Beach mansion and doesn't know, understand or respect the great people of this state, and what we stand for."

Democrats have jumped all over the controversy and are hoping it changes the trajectory of the race. Manchin was originally viewed as the heavy favorite in the special election to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D), but recent polls have shown Raese to be either tied or slightly ahead.

The controversy is particularly disheartening for national Republicans. The ad earned a lot of free media and hammered home an effective message against Manchin. In it, the actors tie the governor to Pres. Obama, who is very unpopular in the state, and also seeks to use Manchin's popularity in the state against him. "Joe's not bad as governor," says one actor. "But when he's with Obama..."

"He turns into 'Washington Joe,'" adds another actor.

The NRSC is pushing back on the Politico story and says it didn't have anything to do with the casting call.

"Contrary to the false headline by Politico, no one at the NRSC, or associated with the NRSC, had anything to do with the language used in this casting call," said NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh. "We do not support it."