GOP Outside Groups Outline Roadmap To House Majority
Conservative outside groups have marshaled their considerable resources with remarkable sophistication in their House efforts -- making sure that groups don't overlap their spending during the final two weeks before Election Day, according to internal documents obtained by Hotline On Call.
The documents break down which districts the five biggest conservative third-party groups have spent or are spending in the final two weeks of the campaign -- last week and this week.
Altogether, the groups plan so far to be on the air in 56 districts during that span and only overlap in one district. All but three of those districts are pickup opportunities for the GOP, and, taken together, they represent a road map to a House majority for the GOP.
The spreadsheets illustrate the level of coordination -- and sophistication -- of the GOP third party efforts this year. (We aren't implying that they are coordinating illegally, but rather that they are carefully monitoring ad buys and FEC reports to make best use of their resources.)
The documents also show that despite the millions of dollars being poured into dozens of House and Senate races -- much to the chagrin of Democrats -- the decision making is centrally located in the hands of very few operatives.
Lastly, the coordination underscores the unity of the GOP message. While liberal groups with different agendas spend in the same district with different messages, their conservative counterparts have focused on specific races with remarkable message discipline -- so much so that each of these groups' ads are nearly interchangeable.
The spreadsheets are remarkable because they show the breadth of the GOP operation. The groups -- American Crossroads, American Action Network, the Center For Individual Freedom, Americans for Tax Reform, and the National Federation of Independent Business -- have been monitoring more than 110 districts, according to the spreadsheet, the vast majority of which are currently held by Democrats.
As with all ad buys, these represent a snapshot at the groups' planning. They can move money in and out of districts right up until ads are supposed to go on the air. With only a week to go to Election Day, however, this spreadsheet provides a pretty reliable look into where they are spending.
Of the five groups, the American Action Network is the biggest player in the final two weeks. That group is planning to air ads in 22 districts. The Center for Individual Freedom is next with 10 races, followed by the National Federation of Independent Business with nine, Americans for Tax Reform with eight and American Crossroads -- which has spent the bulk of its money on Senate races -- with seven.
Also taken into account in the groups' deliberations is where both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee are airing ads. In fact, there are more than 10 districts where one of these groups is planning to spend but the NRCC and/or the DCCC are not.
In Georgia's 8th District, for example, the Center for Individual Freedom is targeting Rep. Jim Marshall
(D) while the DCCC is not spending there. (The DCCC recently canceled some ad reservations in the district.)
Similarly, the National Federation of Independent Business is planning to target Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) in Missouri's 3rd District, but at this point neither the NRCC nor DCCC is spending in that district.
And in a few districts, these groups are providing would-be vulnerable Republicans some air cover. In California's 3rd District, for example, American Crossroads is aiding Rep. Dan Lungren (D). American Crossroads is also helping Rep. Charles Djou (R) in Hawaii's 1st District.
Below is a breakdown of where each group plans to spend.
American Action Network
AR 01 Open (Rep. Marion Berry (D))
CO 07 Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D)
CT 04 Rep. Jim Himes (D)
CT 05 Rep. Chris Murphy (D)
IL 10 Open (Rep. Mark Kirk (R))
IN 02 Rep. Joe Donnelly (D)
MA 10 Open (Rep. Bill Delahunt (D))
MI 07 Rep. Mark Schauer (D)
MN 01 Rep. Tim Walz (D)
NH 02 Open (Rep. Paul Hodes (D))
NM 01 Rep. Martin Heinrich (D)
NV 03 Rep. Dina Titus (D)
OH 06 Rep. Charlie Wilson (D)
OR 05 Rep. Kurt Schrader (D)
PA 07 Open (Rep. Joe Sestak (D))
PA 12 Rep. Mark Critz (D)
SD AL Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)
VA 05 Rep. Tom Perriello (D)
VA 09 Rep. Rick Boucher (D)
VA 11 Rep. Gerry Connolly (D)
WI 08 Rep. Steve Kagen (D)
WV 01 Open (Rep. Alan Mollohan (D))
Americans For Tax Reform
AZ 07 Rep. Raul Grijalva (D)
GA 02 Rep. Sanford Bishop (D)
IA 01 Rep. Bruce Braley (D)
IA 02 Rep. Dave Loebsack (D)
MI 09 Rep. Gary Peters (D)
TN 04 Rep. Lincoln Davis (D)
TX 23 Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D)
WV 03 Rep. Nick Rahall (D)
Center For Individual Freedom
CA 20 Rep. Jim Costa (D)
FL 02 Rep. Allen Boyd (D)
GA 08 Rep. Jim Marshall (D)
KY 06 Rep. Ben Chandler (D)
MS 01 Rep. Travis Childers (D)
NC 08 Rep. Larry Kissell (D)
NC 11 Rep. Heath Shuler (D)
NJ 03 Rep. John Adler (D)
NY 24 Rep. Michael Arcuri (D)
PA 11 Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D)
National Federation of Independent Business
CA 11 Rep. Jerry McNerney (D)
CO 03 Rep. John Salazar (D)
MO 03 Rep. Russ Carnahan (D)
NY 19 Rep. John Hall (D)
NY 23 Rep. Bill Owens (D)
OH 16 Rep. John Boccieri (D)
PA 10 Rep. Chris Carney (D)
SC 05 Rep. John Spratt (D)
WI 03 Rep. Ron Kind (D)
CA 03 Rep. Dan Lungren (R)
FL 22 Rep. Ron Klein (D)
HI 01 Rep. Charles Djou (R)
IN 02 Rep. Joe Donnelly (D)
NY 20 Rep. Scott Murphy (D)
NY 22 Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D)
OH 18 Rep. Zack Space (D)
This post was updated at 3:38 p.m. to reflect NRCC spending.
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