House Democrats have begun sounding an optimistic note that they will avoid a midterm wipeout as the base starts tuning in, campaigns engage, and President Obama travels the country reminding voters of the stakes.
A New York Times piece last weekend asserted that the "resilience of vulnerable Democrats" is complicating Republican efforts to win back control of the House, a narrative that quickly took hold in other news outlets. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has flatly refused to entertain the possibility that her majority is at risk, at least publicly.
But when you look at the national polling metrics and the race-by-race picture in the House, there's little evidence of any Democratic comeback. If anything, Republicans are in as strong a position to win back control of the House as they have been this entire election cycle.
Much of the newfound glimmer of hope comes from a misinterpretation of polling data released by Democratic campaigns and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Many of the polls aren't all that encouraging for Dems, but have been spun to present a misleadingly optimistic picture.
In a House race, where many voters are unfamiliar with challengers until the very end, it's not nearly as instructive to look at who's winning as it is to see whether the incumbent is winning a majority of the vote. Traditionally, most of the undecided vote breaks toward the challenger -- especially in a wave election. It's not uncommon for a congressman to be up "double digits" but still be in serious trouble, given the anonymity of the opponent.
And a staggeringly high number of Democratic incumbents are below the 50 percent mark, including members in much of the polling conducted by Democratic firms released to counteract the GOP narrative. House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd compiled an invaluable database of all the House race polling conducted this cycle and found 66 Democratic incumbents sitting below that magic 50 percent number.
That number should send shivers down the spines of Democratic strategists. In 2008, when Democrats coasted to victory across the board, 32 House Republican incumbents were under the 50 percent mark in the last poll of the cycle, and 14 of them lost -- a 44 percent mortality rate. When you account for all the vulnerable open seats and the competitive races where polling hasn't yet been released, it's very hard to see how Democrats can hold their majority.
The playing field is so large this year that it's misleading to look at any one race to draw firm conclusions about the state of play across the country. Democrats are playing a high-stakes game of "Whack-A-Mole" -- even when they successfully disqualify weak GOP challengers, another half-dozen races pop up on their radar screen.
Yes, Democrats have used their strategic savvy and financial resources to help the prospects of a handful of vulnerable members, like Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.D.), who has aired some of the most effective ads of the cycle and improved her standing in a tough state. The DCCC has a plethora of opposition research to use against flawed GOP challengers on behalf of Reps. Chris Carney (Pa.), Betty Sutton (Ohio), Leonard Boswell (Iowa), Ron Klein (Fla.), and others, which should greatly boost the incumbents' prospects.
But for every one of those races, there's a new Democratic target that emerges, whether it's Rep. Bruce Braley (Iowa), Jim Marshall (Ga.), Jim Oberstar (Minn.), or Sanford Bishop (Ga.), just to name a few. Our House Race Rankings now list 79 races as squarely in play, 72 of them held by Democrats, and other competitive races just missing the cutoff mark. It's hard for either party to keep track of all these late-emerging races, much less build up an opposition dossier in time to run ads against challengers.
The DCCC looks to be conserving its money while it gets a better picture of where things stand this month. The committee's independent expenditure arm has spent only $4.3 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings, a small fraction of its $39 million on hand. That's a smart strategy, but one that may be counteracted by the massive investment from Republican-aligned third-party organizations. American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-backed group which has emerged as a GOP lifeline, is preparing to aid House Republicans this month after focusing its fire on Senate Democrats over the last month.
And as the Cook Political Report pointed out last week, Democratic allies -- namely labor -- haven't been that helpful so far, with the AFL-CIO and SEIU spending 90 percent of their $3.7 million to help just three Democratic members, a questionable strategy given how many races are in play. The National Republican Congressional Committee, meanwhile, has been getting much more bang for its buck, laying down $5.9 million in 31 different races in smaller, less expensive markets over the last several weeks. (It has reserved $35 million of time for 55 seats.)
There are other signs that there is little uptick in the Democratic fortunes. Gallup released its latest generic ballot numbers on Monday, and they show Republicans continuing to hold a massive turnout edge, even after the White House's efforts last week to energize the base.
Among likely voters, assuming a typical midterm election turnout, Republicans hold a 56 percent to 38 percent advantage, with independents skewing heavily toward the GOP. With higher-than-expected turnout, Republicans hold a 13-point lead, 53 to 40 percent, among likely voters. And that's with Republicans holding just a 3-point edge among all registered voters -- a margin in the lower range of Gallup's polling over the last month.
Democrats showed modest gains from summer polling in the new ABC News/Washington Post poll, but still trail by 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters on the generic ballot. And only 31 percent of registered voters said they were inclined to re-elect their representative, slightly down from the pre-Labor Day poll. These aren't signs that a wave is abating.
There's not much time left for Democrats to turn things around. Early voting has already begun in states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Georgia, Indiana, California, and West Virginia -- all states with a sizable share of competitive House races (at least 16 competitive Democratic-held seats between them).
The fundamentals of this midterm have been troublesome all year for Democrats, and as the election draws closer, the gloomy national numbers are translating into seemingly safe members facing the fights of their political careers. House Democrats are still staring at a Category 5 hurricane that looks likely to sweep away their majority, with the real possibility that some of their most entrenched members could be among the victims.
But now I have come to suppose that the whole world is an mystery, a harmless riddle that is made terrible by our own foolish attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying exactness.
At least 38 Democrats will loose their seat, a well over 50% mark, and GOP will get at least 8 open seats, while Dems gain three GOP seats. That puts the Dems at a minimum 43 seat loss. But, a high end of the category five storm could well give GOP 55-60 seats with the Senate pretty even at 50-50. There is no spin one way or the other with me.
The September unemployment figure will be out on Friday. If it goes up to 9.7% or remains at 9.6%, the extent of Democrat losses might have to be reassessed.
In the current environment, the R's could flip 50 seats without breaking a sweat, basically. A 55-60 seat flip would probably be the best the D's could hope for, at this point.
And I'd say that a Cat 5 storm puts the D House seat flips in the 80+ range, with such outcome being far more likely than the D's retaining House control.
Senate goes to stalemate, no matter who winds up with more seats, and no matter the final count: 50-50, 51-49, 52-48, 53-47, and it'll be one of these counts.
Precious gridlock returns to our fair lands.
There is only about 75 Democrat seats to go around.
George, you are aware that 435 Congressional Representatives will stand for election this November? Of which 255 are democrats. So gaining 80 is not only possible, but conservative. I'm expecting historic loses. The 31 million unemployed will be voting. Considering most mid terms don't total much more then twice that, losing 100+ seats is likely for the Democrats.
The only fact that's hopeful for the Democrats is that there are a whole lot of seats they would lose based on current polls but which are extremely close.
Hence, if the wind does ever blow in their direction before the election, there would be a chance that they could drastically reduce their losses.
But if that does not happen, the Democrats are facing an electoral massacre.
I'm going with the 100-plus figure in the House and a squeaker win for Republicans in the Senate. My basis: the cluelessness for the last year of the media and the Democrats about what people are saying. We don't want your policies. We aren't European. We want jobs. We don't hate business. Business creates jobs. Government can't create wealth, or create long term jobs. We don't hate the rich. We just hate government handing our money to monied interests. We don't like you choosing winners and losers and handing our hard-earned money to your favorite do-gooders of the week. Keep your hands off our money!!! You keep thinking we just want to get rid of a few incumbents. No. No. No. That's not it. We'll test your theory on November 2!
I just passed this funny street-sign on the way home from work:
LIBERAL SLAUGHTER AHEAD
Well the polls are starting to tighten and as they do so, the RCP polls show the Republican candidates moving ever closer to the magic thresholds in both the House and the Senate. When you consider that the polls normally tilt towards the Democrats then we are going to witness a true electoral tsunami this election.
One thing that none of the pundits have talked about is that in past elections eastcoast election returns have affected election results on the westcoast. With polls closing on the eastcoast 3 or 4 hours before those in the west, the massive gains in eastern states could swing close races in Nevada, California, and Washington. If that happens this year, as it has in past years, then Reid and Boxer could end up losing by a large margin even if the polls show them with a narrow lead.
Don't get cocky, kid. Just get out there and vote, and remind your unemployed 22 year old kid to vote, and remind your unemployed 54 year old union-member father in law to vote.
One of the betting lines (unfortunately, I can't remember which, only that it was one of the Vegas sports lines - sorry) last week had an over - under of R + 68 in the House.
This could be completely unprecedented.
:)
I have worked in the political field for 45 years in Canada, Britain and Mexico for parties of both the left and the right and I have only seldom seen what I am seeing in the US this year. Canada in 1984 and 1993, Thatcher in Britain during the 80s and Mexico in 2000. These become moments when you throw out the "conventional wisdom" and everything is turned on its head.
Every party in one of these historic "Catagory 5s" does about the same thing: they begin to "cherry pick" and misinterpret their polls from those most friendly to them; they dismiss the surging groundswell as "diminishing" and they start frantically playing "Whack-A-Mole."
Oh, and most importantly, the party facing such a potencial massacre seems to desperately look for hope where in effect there is precious little. The Democrats and their very partisan "mainstream" media were celebrating just a couple of weeks ago that the "Senate had been saved" with the nomination of O'Donnell in Delaware, but barely had the champagne corks stopped popping when suddenly they found that West Virginia was in play and Gillibrand was now in trouble in New York.
Likewise in the house: the Dems were boldly announcing that the bleeding had stopped and their potencial losses were being contained, that the House could now be saved as well, when suddenly it was discovered that dozens of seats where no polling had been done as they were considered so "safe," were now also coming into play.
As others have noted earlier, in this type of "tsunami" election, the independents and undecideds will NEVER break 50-50. Many times it will break as high as 70-30 or even 80-20. Likewise the "enthusiasm gap" is now firmly out of control for the Dems. Sure they will manage to motivate many so-called "progressives" of the hard left with "the horrible, racist, extremist GOP is coming back!". They may even get a few votes from idiots with the "She's a witch who wants to ban masterbation!" rubbish.
But that will not in the least offset the tidal wave of Republican (and Independent) voters who will practically rise from the dead in the millions in order get out to the polls. Neither will it get out those decent moderate Democrats who have chosen to stay home in order to register their disgust and displeasure with their own party.
I'm a believer in the "eye of the storm" philosophy here. The Dems have spent millions, they have energized everybody and everything that can be energized this year, they have denigrated and attacked any and all of their opponents with every dirty, dishonest smear they can come up with. They have shot their bolt. This is as good as it will get for the Dems. They are now in the "eye" and now the OTHER side of the eyewall is about to hit.....
Like Josh Kraushaar, I see absolutely NOTHING on the immediate horizon to indicate any major turnaround for the Dems. The momentum is still all on the other side and as we get closer to election day, history tells us it will likely increase even more dramatically. I see a historic cataclysm coming in November, 80-100+ in the House, 52-53 GOP in the Senate and perhaps close to 70% of statehouses.
In Canada in the election of 1984 there were Conservative candidates in Quebec (where the Conservatives hadn't won a seat for about 20 years) who took LOAs from their jobs saying: "Don't worry, I'm just going to run for the Conservative Party, I'll be back at work in a month..."
A month later, after the largest landslide in Canadian history, they were not only Conservative MPs, some were federal cabinet ministers.....
I'm a democrat, excited to vote this midterm election. I can't wait for November 2 to be here so I can vote straight Republican ticket. I'm not alone, there are many of us democrats who joined the TEA Party movement, I don't trust democrats anymore to do the right thing; they're more focus to stay in power, spend as much as they can, and borrow as much as they can.
I wish I can change my political affiliation and declare myself independent, but in close primary I can't vote, so I'll remain registered as democrat but would be voting for Republicans and TEA Party candidates from now on.
Oh, Lil, Me Too!!! Life long, left wing, bleeding heart, liberal democrat here! Pulling the lever for the Repubs for the first time in my life! I can hardly stand what has become of my party and I want them spanked bad. I lived in Europe for many years. I love Europe. I do NOT want America to become Europe. I am tired of hearing my friends and neighbors belittled and called racist. I am tired of the elitism and smug arrogant hypocrisy. I am tired of being talked down to. I am so ready to vote - and I am wandering around actively looking for republicans I can vote for. Right now, if Sarah Palin were to come here and point at a rock, I would vote for the rock. I am just that sick.
Counting the days.
rani
Lil wrote:
"I'm a democrat, excited to vote this midterm election. I can't wait for November 2 to be here so I can vote straight Republican ticket. I'm not alone, there are many of us democrats who joined the TEA Party movement, I don't trust democrats anymore to do the right thing; they're more focus to stay in power, spend as much as they can, and borrow as much as they can."
I too am excited to vote and get rid of Boxer and keep that idiot former Gov Jerry Brown another opportunity to run our state into the ground. Unlike yourself I have never called myself a democrat and never will, nor will I ever vote democratic again. I'm a registered democratic AMERICAN. After 16 years of blindly and ignorantly voting straight democratic, I don't hesitate admitting to having been a former ignorant American.
Democrats have declared Republicans/Conservatives as the enemy when in fact they are at war with Americans, our Constitution and our way of life and freedoms. Democrats are incapable and unworthy of running this Country not only because they are incompetent and criminal, they do not have what it takes to Govern. They think they are entitled to rule.
Obama recently went into that conservative dragon's lair known as the University of Wisconsin. Next thing you know, he will be campaigning in conservative strongholds such as San Francisco or Seattle. And if Obama can't woo the electorate, all Dems need to do is trot out their voting record and brag about the accomplishments of the 111th Congress. Really, the Republicans don't stand a chance.
Your a rasist!
While it is Congress that controls the nation's purse strings and is most responsible for this economic disaster (and will be amply rewarded come November), who can forget Michelle's trip to the south of Spain with "forty of her closest friends" smack dab in the middle of The Great Recession with millions of Americans looking for work.
"Let the eat cake" indeed.
The wind behind the Rep backs is getting stronger for the simple reason that Dems have done so much to destroy America. Reps will take the House. Also, the projection for Reps to take the Senate improves every week.
The Republicans will win everything in November.
Everything.
This will be a sweep of historic proportions.
Not for more than a hundred years have we seen a party get trounced like the Demmies will be trounced in 26 days.
America was fooled -- by the left, by the media, by our own frustrations -- in 2008. But now the truth is clear.
We are about to turn out the National Suicide Party.
The only time the dems will admit defeat is at about 9pm on Nov 2. The media tries and spin any bit of positive news for liberals they can. When a negative story comes up on a GOP candidate they are all over it and write story after story. Where's the corruption stories on rangel, Kilpatrick, Jefefrson, Waters...Where o where? The media is as corrupt as the DEMoncat party. It's stakeholders are now illegal aliens, lawyers, union bosses, and low-income minorities. Everyone else has caught onto REID and PELOSI and OBAMA tactics. LIES and more LIES. Stem the red tide on Nov 2.
For sure republicans will gain 45+ seats in the house, whatever happens from now to election day. In the senate also, there is a good chance for republican majority after the election. RCP average now shows 50-50 and most probaly all those 9 seats will end up in republican column. Then there are 3 seats which are very competitive, WA, CA, CT (and may be a forth one too, NY). And in a situation like this there is a chance that one of this will end up in republican column. And then there is the chance for a surprise in a seat, like Scott Brown's victory, which no polls predicted.
this election is as much about the media as anything. yes, the desm over-reaching and misreading of the "mandate". and their socialism and their tone-deafness, and arrogance, and job-killing policies. yes all that. and losses will be "historic". the interesting story i think will be after Nov 2, when the party, the dems, decide on how to handle BHO. when they will begin the distancing. the save their party. that will be uncomdortable to watch. BHO could become the most irerelevent president in a long time. maybe jerry ford. nixon in his last days.jimmy carter in 79-80. and if he continues to tack left, and defy the congress, he could end up being as reviled as nixon and carter as well. will be interesting to see his downfall the next 2 years.
Reminds me of a song. Maybe we can contact Dee Syder to use for Republicans/Tea Party in 2012.
oh You're So Condescending
your Gall Is Never Ending
we Don't Want Nothin', Not A Thing From You
your Life Is Trite And Jaded
boring And Confiscated
if That's Your Best, Your Best Won't Do
oh.....................
oh.....................
we're Right/yeah
we're Free/yeah
we'll Fight/yeah
you'll See/yeah
oh We're Not Gonna Take It
no, We Ain't Gonna Take It
oh We're Not Gonna Take It Anymore
Go the GOP! Now the American people must hold firm, stay the course and turn the Dems out in their droves!!! What a disaster the last two years have been!
I see a 50-seat Republican win in the House and I see Republican control in the Senate. This is a change election and in change elections, normally the challengers just win. I don't see any struggling incumbent really stepping up.
Take Feingold. Johnson just took control of that ten or fourteen days ago. Yet, Russ is nowhere to be found. His supporters are out to lunch. Johnson keeps pushing his ads, having his rallies, running an effective campaign.
Look at Blumenthal. It's Connecticut for goodness sake, about as Democratic a state as there is. Yet, Blumenthal cannot have a rally in Connecticut. Sure, McMahon may not win the state but isn't it telling that someone like Blumenthal cannot even hold a rally anymore? In a campaign season?
It will be very difficult for Democrats to winany competitive race. And Obama has only himself to blame. He came in with a lot of momentum and immediately surrendered it to the House Democrats, who put a lot of stimulus money in areas that didn't stimuluate anything but deficits.
"Shovel ready"? Research and development at the U of M or whatever isn't going to generate millions of jobs. He would have been a lot better off convincing these very Democrats about the importance of putting people back to work. Heck, he would have been a lot better off giving people rebate checks to stimulate the economy instead of doing R&D and other non-job-producing government spending. Those things may be important but the job of a stimulus is to actually stimulate. It doesn't look like the stimulus did that.
Don't forget, a lot of voters will have already cast their vote long before Nov. 2nd. Depending on the state, early (absentee) voting can be around 50% of the vote. This tends to diminish the effects of late surges by either side. The Democrat's only hope is unusually high turn-out. However, turn-out is often depressed when races get ugly - both sides start smearing the other and the voter gets disillusioned and stays home. With little positive to campaign (on for either side), this is exactly what has happened so far. Democrats will need a major change in momentum, as well as a positive message to spark high turn-out. I don't see either happening.
For the first time in my life I will vote a straight Republican ticket. There is no turning back now.
True, this election more about how the media tries to exploit the Republican Party and the Tea Party Movement by aggressively supporting Reid, Pelosi, BHO and the Democratic Party in general. If the media would open their eyes and TRUTHFULLY REPORT on ALL CONTENDERS in lieu of listening to the nay-sayers and those that put the spin on everything (whether it is Democrat - Republican - Independent or What Have You).
This election on 2 November will hopefully open the eyes of all Senators and Congressmen and remind them that they work for the people (not the reverse.
Once this election is over, then this NEW CONGRESS needs to call the President on to the carpet to prove who he really is (that is: Is he a Natural Born American as is required by the Constitution and if he refuses then proceed with Impeachment.)
Simply put, fraud may stop the GOP tide. The mainstream media rewards fraud and condemns anyone who challenges fraud -- from purging dead people off voter rolls (not to mention purging people who have moved out of state or even to new addresses without changing their registration), to voting for the invalid and infirm who have lost the mental capacity to make their own choices, to casting multiple ballots in multiple locations, to just plain stuffing the box with false votes ... to disqualifying legitimate voters (especially the military), to keeping polling places open for extra hours to bus in illegal voters (St. Louis!) ...
Will BHO cancel the elections if the dems realize the size of their losses??
You kind of have to laugh at Mitch, the #3 commenter. He really thinks a 0.1% blip in the unemployment number will swing voters in considerable numbers from one party to the other. If only it were so easy to predict these things!
Our border states are overwhelmed, over-manned, out-gunned, and overran from the massive invasion of Illegal Aliens & Armed Banditos, killing Citizens and Law enforcement personnel and our Federal government sues the States trying to protect its Citizens!
Criminals and Illegal Aliens march in our streets all across the land demanding their rights, demanding we cede this Nation to them, riot, wave their flags and spit on American, its Government, Laws, Constitution, and Citizens, and our Federal Government defends their rights to do so.
Our neighborhoods are flooded with gangs, graffito & trash, Mexican flags fly in barrios coast to coast , our ER rooms destroyed, Hospitals closed, Schools overwhelmed, Prisons overflowing, 100,s billions spent on Welfare for the invaders, States bankrupted, Americans Citizens by the 10,of thousands are Robbed, Raped and Slaughtered, millions of American citizens unemployed and losing everything, while our Federal Government reward the invaders and promises them Amnesty for their Crimes!
The Presidents, past and present and most of the Politicians in Wash, DC plus Mayors in our sanctuary cities from coast to coast should to be arrested and tried for Treason!
As much as what their healthcare reform law contained, it was the way in which the Democrats forced it through that has enraged the American people. It was rightly seen as an assault on our democracy, and they will pay dearly for their contempt.
Is this a Rightwing venue? I've never been here before but it was my impression that National Journal was more or less like the NYT in her politics, perhaps that is wrong. Now, several Democrats are heard from above, all declaring a firm Right Turn. I didn't read every single post but is there a single representative of an Obamoid or (even more common these days) anyone to the Left of the Prez? This seems to be the state of affairs all across the internets, or at least those that I see. Sometimes you see the lament from LeftLand that Barack, Rahmbo and Axe have taken half measures but never in the last months have I seen a competent, principled Liberal argument in support of Obama outside those who earn their paychecks doing so. This isn't a Rasmussen Rolling Three Day Average but it is a serious change in the landscape that I think everyone is experiencing. You?
NJ is generally pretty fair on poll information. Rasmussen actually has been giving the Republicans a narrower advantage recently but this doesn;t matter.
The article is one of the best I have read because it focused on the two main metrics that define what the midterm is about. Incumbent approval and turnout. The problem that democrats are also running into is that they do not have a great feel for the people that gave them a decisive victory in 08.
Independents have shifted to the Republicans but it is hard to pin down ways to keep that number down.
Blacks, young people and latinos are the most notoriously tough groups to track in midterm races, so the polls have been all over the map at tracking them. If they vote in numbers typical of a midterm (Which I think they will go slightly higher) the Republicans win in a wave of unprecedented proportions.
Base on this report my opinion is leaning towards 45-50 seats or a mini-wave, but not a complete disaster. The dems should be able to funnel their ample resources into the firewall races in Illinois, Connecticut and New York and hold onto deep blue while ceding West Virginia, the south, and most of the purples.
If the dems though do not identify the right races it could be a tough situation
Chellie Pingree, D, ME-1 railed against fat cats and their private jets, carbon footprints, blah, blah, blah.Recently she was exposed flying all over on a ... private jet. complete with wet bar and leather seats. Progressive Pingree! But, it's ok, says she, It's my boyfriend Donald Sussmans. Sussman is a FAT CAT hedge fund manager from the Virgin Islands, Greenwich, CT. I guess FAT CATS and Progressive get along ok. What a flamin' hypocrite!!
There is no recent precedent for what we are seeing right now. In 94, Bill Clinton was in trouble for Hillary Care, but other than that and some angst over other policies, it was simply a change in power brought on by fatigue, not the wholesale fear and anger. A man has become POTUS who denigrates the people, attacks opponents as being stupid and unprincipled, and generally talks down to 300 million people. Clinton NEVER did that - he actually connected with us but reached too far on the Hillary Care. This will be much, much worse for the dems this time around - we reject the message and the policies that decry our country as unfair and broken and needing to be completely overhauled. That kind of arrogance and ignorance of history is always hammered in the polls. Frankly, were someone to send a my daughter's 6th grade history textbook to the White House and make it mandatory reading, you might see a positive effect...nah, nevermind.
The most interesting trend has been the huge shift in Independent voters towards the Republicans and especially the Tea Party-backed candidates. Even black voters now relate to and even agree with the conservative Tea Party message by a margin of 3 to 1. The November vote will be one for the record books. Let’s hope that the newly elected congressmen can contain their ‘pride’ and remember that the people who placed them into office, and can easily vote them right back out onto the street.
Warmest regards,
Robert J. Thorpe
Author of “Reclaim Liberty: 3-Step Plan for Restoring our Constitutional Government”
www.reclaimliberty.us and also available on www.Amazon.com, “Laus Deo”
Yes 100 seat gain is possible if you can manage to knock out Jim Moran and Nita Lowery and perhaps Sheila Lee Jackson and John Lewis...so keep dreaming!
the element that has missing from the "lack of enthusiasm" theory, that has become all the rage...
dem affiliation is a spectrum.
independents,
dem leaning independents,
moderate dems,
affiliated dems,
and die hard liberals.
when someone says that the base is dispirited, roughly those between the moderate and affiliated, it means that everybody who is to the right of this group has now defected.
this election isn't even about the dems who don't turnout, it is about the broadest defection of sure dem voters form all previous elections.
the true believers of the dem party should vote, and then find a nice hill, so that they can watch the electoral mushroom clouds destroy their base.
the gop?
they aren't resurgent in any sense of the word. more than half the people who will vote for them, can't stand them, myself included.
they just aren't as bad as the dems.
the problem is growing, and the tide doesn't recede after 2010. the second wave comes in 2012, when the obama is the last man standing, and the dem senators up for election are gone.
This is the day the sentient have been waiting for.Repudiate the Kenyan fraud.
Great leaders that BHO has reminded me of;
General Eisenhower, from a Nazi prison, 1950; “I couldn’t go in there, ya know, with a straw and suck up all those Nazis…”
General Washington, from a British prison, 1776: “I couldn’t, ya know, go in there and suck up all those Redcoats with a straw…”
General Grant, from a Confederate States prison, 1876; “I couldn’t, ya know, go in there with a straw and suck up all those Rebs…”
Ronald Reagan, East Berlin, 1999; “Ya know, I couldn’t suck up that big ole wall with a straw…”
I too am a confirmed Democrat, thanks to George W. Bush, who convinced me that Republicans were not just social Neanderthals (which I convinced myself we a worthy price to pay for sound economics) but also economic charlatans and liars, to boot. All through the Iraq War debate (which is what turned me away from a 15-yr. affiliation with the GOP), I was convinced that the American people were not stupid enough to buy the obvious lies that he was peddling. I was wrong.
I was then convinced that there was NO way the Democrats could possibly win in either 2006 or 2008 - the country was too stuffed with stupidity to do the right thing for itself. I was wrong then too.
I expect finally to be proven right in 2010 that Americans are such a bunch of dumbasses that they will indeed vote for the Republicans back in again, buying all the lies, idiocy, myth-making - about a golden age of limited government that never existed - and illiteracy that passes for economic logic in the GOP and its idiot wing, the Tea Party.
I only need to know how to short this trend in the markets and I'll be happy as a clam.
Please, oh please, my fellow Americans, please don't prove me wrong again. Show me that you are indeed proof +ve that we need to re-introduce (race-neutral this time) poll taxes and IQ tests for voting eligibility and that one can never sufficiently underestimate your intelligence. I badly need the re-affirmation.
SRS
What will be funny will be the way the media covers it. Can't wait to see the emotion on their faces. Oh the tears will flow. :'(
This is a warning to any reticent business donors that they aren't out of the woods yet, so they better hedge their bets or beware.
SRS's post is exactly why the Republicans will win big. What incredible arrogance! Maybe his associates and family believe you solve an argument by calling people stupid and dumpasses but most Americans do not. It merely makes the one sprouting such words seem very, very small and unable to articulate a political position.
I am a libertarian and registered as such in CA. Both political parties are far too authoritarian and anti-liberty for my taste. However, the Democrats have managed to make the Republicans look benign. Democrat politicians want to tax, regulate and control EVERYTHING. And no lie is too big to tell in the name of obtaining that control. The Democrat vision seems to be one of transferring what wealth they do not destroy to their favored groups. I am disgusted and the only option this election seems to be to take power away from statist Democrats. CA government is a cautionary tale. I hope we all learn from this experience.
Ignore SRS's post, it's troll. Nobody with a "15 yr GOP affiliation" is going to go all BDS because of the Iraq war debate and become a staunch supporter of Marxist Progressives like Obama and Pelosi. How stupid do they think we are?
This is our first step in getting rid of Obama, an arrogant, narcissistic, idiot. Everyone has to not only commit to vote Obama's flunkies out of office on November 2, but insist to friends, coworkers, relatives that they vote and vote to throw Obama's flunkies out.
And then in 2012 we get rid of Obama himself!