Nathan Deal's Path To Victory In GA GOV

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's Path To Victory feature, where we take a close look at some of the marquee races this year. On Monday, we examined how former Gov. Roy Barnes' (D) plans to return to the Georgia governor's mansion this year.

Today, we look at former Rep. Nathan Deal (R), who emerged from a crowded and competitive primary to carry the GOP banner. While Barnes' brand has been a part of Georgia politics for more than 10 years, Deal - who represents a northern Georgia congressional district -- is less well known statewide.

But Deal has a lot of things going for him. Most notably, he's the Republican nominee in a Republican state in a Republican year. If that wasn't enough, his opponent has plenty of baggage to use against him. "This should be a no brainer for the GOP," said one prominent Georgia Republican strategist not involved in the campaign.

And with that, here is Deal's path to victory:

Weather The Storm: As we noted on Monday, Deal has faced a steady stream of stories alleging corruption in the last week. Fortunately for him, though, they don't seem to be having much effect on the polls. Deal has consistently led in polls, in some cases by double digits.

One Georgia Republican not involved in the campaign put Deal's position this way: "He just has to not screw it up."

"Deal just needs to get the normal Republican vote," said University of Georgia political science guru Charles Bullock. "If he does, he wins."

That means Deal is running from a position of strength, even as he faces these allegations. Deal has gone negative on Barnes, but he appears to be leaving most of the heavy lifting to the RGA. Currently, Deal is up with a positive bio ad - a sign that he believes he is in control of the race.

All About Roy: Barnes has tried to focus the race on Deal, but so far the race feels like it is predominantly about Barnes - and that's exactly how Republicans want it.

The RGA has gone up with 5 ads in Georgia so far, and most of them have focused on Barnes' record as governor. Between his time in the governors' mansion and the foundering Democratic brand in Georgia, Republicans believe they have plenty to work with.

There are a few lines of attack we've seen so far and we can expect to see more of. First, when Barnes was governor, Georgia ranked last in the country in education and led the nation in job loss. Second, Republicans believe Barnes is still tarnished by a reputation of being arrogant - a persona that was popularized in the famous "King Roy" web ad from '02. Republicans say that is also how Georgians view Pres. Obama, particularly with regard to his health care reform. So, tying Barnes to Obama and national Democrats is a lethal line of attack, Republicans say, and one that Barnes will have difficulty running from.

This is all summed up by the tag line of Deal's ads: "Nathan Deal, he'll get it right the first time."

Rockin' The Exurbs: As a Republican in Georgia, where Deal should get his votes is pretty simple: Everywhere but the urban centers. But to get a good sense of whether Deal is going to win on election night, Republicans say they will be watching the so-called "exurbs" of Atlanta.

In particular, keep an eye on a ring of counties north of Atlanta - Gwinnett, Cherokee and Forsyth. These are the areas of the state with the most rapid population growth. If Deal is pulling 55% or better in these counties, Republicans are confident they'll win. Also in this area is Cobb County, Barnes' home. Barnes didn't carry this county in '98 or '02, but if he is able to pull ahead here this year Republicans will be in trouble. That won't be easy, though; John McCain (R) carried Cobb County by 10% last year.

Deal can afford to be reactionary with his targeting. Republicans say that Barnes has a much more difficult task ahead of him in appealing both to Atlanta - where he needs high turnout - and the state's rural areas - which tend to dislike Atlanta. There is a strong "Atlanta vs. the rest of us" mentality in Georgia, and Deal stands to benefit if Barnes attempts schizophrenic messaging that appeals to both. More, the onus is also on Barnes to drive up turnout; low turnout is good for Deal because it means that the urban centers and African Americans aren't going to the polls.

In the southern part of the state -- where, as we mentioned on Monday, Barnes is busy campaigning and Deal isn't well known - Deal stands to gain from a competitive House race in the 8th District. That district stretches into southern Georgia and Rep. Jim Marshall (D) is facing a tough challenge this year from state Rep. Austin Scott (R). If Scott is leading Marshall on election night, it's a very good sign for Deal.

Previous Paths To Victory
CA SEN:
Carly Fiorina's Path To Victory
Barbara Boxer's Path To Victory

OH 15:
Steve Stivers' Path To Victory
Mary Jo Kilroy's Path To Victory