Pew Poll: Tsunami Warning For Democrats
Democrats are facing an electoral landscape more inhospitable than anyone could have imagined just months ago, according to new survey data from the Pew Research Center.
The Pew Research Center survey released Thursday found many troubling signs for Democrats. Among them, Republicans now hold significant advantages among both men and women, as well as in the 77 most competitive House districts.
First, the toplines. Among likely voters, Republicans have a 10 point advantage on the generic ballot test -- 50 percent to 40 percent - up from a seven-point edge last month. If the Democratic base is coming home, the Republican base is intensifying further.
Among independent voters, Republicans also have a significant advantage. They are breaking for the GOP by a 19-point margin, 49 percent to 30 percent.
Drilling down into the districts where the battle for the House is being contested, things get worse for Democrats. In the 77 most competitive House districts, Republicans hold a 12 point advantage among likely voters -- 51 percent to 39 percent. These numbers indicate that prediction of a major Republican landslide - greater than the GOP's gains in the 1994 elections are a very real possibility.
The Pew numbers from "safe" Democratic-held districts are also alarming for the majority party, with Democrats holding just a 51 to 41 percent lead. In safe Republican districts, the GOP enjoys a wide 58 percent to 31 percent advantage.
Demographically, men are breaking for the GOP, 52 percent to 37 percent, and women prefer Republicans by a six-point margin on the generic ballot -- 49 percent to 43 percent. But there isn't a gender gap among white voters, with white men favoring the GOP by a 23-point margin, and white women by a 20-point margin.
The poll also found that Democrats are beginning to tune in to the election, but not nearly enough to counteract the GOP intensity. In particular, more than a quarter -- 27 percent -- say they plan to vote plan to vote before Election Day.
The Pew survey was conducted October 13 to 18 and surveyed 1,797 registered voters, including 1,354 likely voters. It had a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.
I voted for Obama but I am sick over his left leaning wealth redistrubution radical ideas. I had no idea he was sooo liberal!
Well, Claudia, one look at his voting record in the US Senate should have been all you needed to tip you off. Our man Barack was rated as having had THE single most liberal voting record in the Senate in 2007! It ain't easy to pile up a voting record that's rated as more liberal than that of leftist loons like Barbara Boxer and Russ Feingold, but somehow "The Chosen One" managed to do it.
How unfortunate it is that a significant portion of the country was so swept off their feet by his smooth teleprompter speeches that they didn't bother to notice.
Well, Claudia, make up for your mistake by voting against any and all Democrats on Nov. 2nd. Send President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid a strong message about their liberal agenda.
Voter remourse? That's what happens when people are wishy-washy so-called "Independents." It's a lack of principle.
Claudia .. a lot of us were WELL aware of his leftist, uber-Liberal leanings. But people like you were too busy calling us "racists" while you drank the koolaid! Glad you're finally coming out of your Hoax'nChains bender!
I don't think it is all Claudia's fault. The Republican's left such a terrible taste in everyone's mouth when they ruled all the levers of government. I wanted to believe. My wife had to talk me out of supporting Obama though I am a life long conservative. It was not a vote for Obama but against a broken Republican party. Noonan has a great commentary in the WSJ about the life the tea party has brought back to the Republican party. It is right on the mark. Lets hope the party does not leave home again. So Claudia, welcome back, it was not all your fault for leaving. But here here to Coop lets all vote the Dem's out. Carly Fiorina has a great add in California playing which says you can't change Washington if you keep sending the same people back. What great advice.
I think nearly everyone thought we needed a new direction in 2008. I was very disappointed with the Republican lack of leadership for several years. I didn't fall for Obama, but I can see how many did. Now we change directions again...but for how long?
Yep, GWB and the Dem Congress did increase MediCare and the federal debt and GWB cost Republicans mightily in 2006 & 2008, but who could have imagined "the Chosen One" AND a Dem Congress could double the national debt in two years!!
Tsunami is the right course correction or we're going to wind up like Greece and France. Riots anyone?
Freedom requires eternal vigilance.
I see what's happened to our country as Americans' fault. We, the People, forgot to keep our elected leaders, our employees, accountable.
Look at the little town of Bell, California -- criminal extortion of the public. But it can't happen unless the boss is sleeping.
We must stay vigilant. As my brother said to me once about managing employees: "You have to lay out your expectations and then inspect your expectations."
And if the employees fail at the job. Fire them and hire new ones. Send out the message that shirking, falling down, embezzlement, etc. will not be tolerated by taxpayer-funded employees.
Everyday..... as Obama tries to rally the Democratic base he is driving more Republicans and Independents to get engaged. Obama is incompetent....that we all can see! But.... The first "POST PARTISAN PRESIDENT" has truly shown he is actually the "MOST PARTISAN PRESIDENT" .
Before 2008 I had only twice in my life voted for a non-Republican at any level - the first in 1971 for Richard J Daley to be Mayor of Chicago and the second in 1992 for H Ross Perot. In 2008, sickened by the lsamentable record of the GOP under Bush 2, I reregistered as an independent and voted straight down the line for the Dems. I'm sure I'm not alone in hoping the GOP would somehow get the message. It's started to, but it's still too much enamored of big business. There seems a strange blindness on the part of so many conservatives, who distrust the power of big government, saying that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely, but being blind to the same corrosive effects in big business. The recent revelations of the mortgage foreclosure mess should show that those in big business, particularly in the banks and investment houses, should not be trusted either. This year I'm voting for the GOP (although I remain registered as an independent), but I'll make a prediction - THE FIRST PARTY TO TURN THE MODERATE CENTER INTO ITS BASE WILL FORM THE COALITION THAT WILL DRIVE AMERICAN POLITICS FOR A GENERATION OR MORE.
How could anyone not understand how much of a Socialist Obama was when he ran? He had the most Liberal voting record in the Senate. These people wanted to transform the country into a suffocating European socialocracy. Thankfully they were derailed.
You can fool some of the people all of the time . . .
The President is acting like the legislator whence he came.Senator accomplish goals by a muddling through management by consensus collective action known as the American legislative process. Power is decentralized,the Presidency is at the opposite end of American political system as well as Pennsylvania Ave.
He or she moves by the body politic by individual leadership NOT management by consensus.
Any Senator can only be what they are - compromisers - not leaders.
Why is anyone surprised ?
Lots of people fell for the smooth talking Marxist. We all make mistakes, but we have to "Man-Up" and correct the situation. Hopefully the American electorate will vote the Democratic (Socialist) party into the annals of history!
Calling a good man that saved Capitalism and Wallstreet a Marxist is just idiotic vitriol ,but that's the modern day Republicant Party for you,all they have is Bigotry , Hate and the WORD NO(because their actions say yes for more Debt and Government/Reagan TRIPLED and Bush/GOP Congress DOUBLED the NATIONAL DEBT,both massively grew the Guvmint and "Saint Ronny" raised taxes 6-8 years while doing it) !And now we have a dumbed down GOP(if thats possible) with the mad Repub T/Baggers ,from Palin to Paladino and all in between,with not a fully formed brain or a bit of human decency anywhere to be found!
Hey J, maybe we should not have "saved" Wall Street. With these bailouts, their bottom lines got biggers and they are more powerful than ever. As a friend of mine said "progressives are just neocons with sandals."
"Voter remourse? That's what happens when people are wishy-washy so-called "Independents." It's a lack of principle."
Except that you would be wrong. Voter *remorse* is one thing, but political Independents rarely correlate to "wishy-washy", usually the trouble for them is they are socially liberal and fiscally conservative, and thus at home in neither party due to extremists. They hate the far left socialists and their liberal leftist fiscal wealth redistribution. But they also loathe the far extreme rights big government socially conservative moralism. When one side or the other gets too far to the extreme, they dump them and defect to the other side. It usually has very little to do with not knowing your political principles, it's that both of the two dominant parties have terrible aspects to them so you are left doing a cost/benefit analysis and choosing between the lesser of two evils.
Doc: "Voter remourse? That's what happens when people are wishy-washy so-called "Independents." It's a lack of principle."
Except that you would be wrong. Voter remorse is one thing, but political Independents rarely correlate to "wishy-washy", usually the trouble for them is they are socially liberal and fiscally conservative, and thus at home in neither party due to extremists. They hate the far left socialists and their liberal leftist fiscal wealth redistribution. But they also loathe the far extreme rights big government socially conservative moralism. When one side or the other gets too far to the extreme, they dump them and defect to the other side. It usually has very little to do with not knowing your political principles, it's that both of the two dominant parties have terrible aspects to them so you are left doing a cost/benefit analysis and choosing between the lesser of two evils.
Claudia, dunna' fret. We all make mistakes, and after the major blunder we elected in 2000, what did we do on our side eight years later? We nominated general blunderbuss. Although I didn't vote for this intellectual jackass, I'm rather fond of the Tea Party... a phenomenon that would not exist without the brayer-in-chief.
Obama's in Vegas telling the people what a great job Reid is doing. 15% unemployment.30%underemployment.Thanks Barack and Harry. Don't spend your money in Vegas. What are you stuck on stupid Obama?