Freshman Seniority In The Next Senate
At least 14 states will send new senators to DC over the next 3 months, and while all these new members will be considered freshmen, some will be more equal than others. There can be no ties in seniority in the Senate, and senators sworn in before Jan. 3 will have a leg up on their new colleagues.
For senators sworn in on the same day, seniority is determined, in order, by previous service in the Senate, House, and years as governor, with final ties being determined by state population. To be sure, overall Senate seniority only matters in terms of office-suite assignments, but within a caucus, it can sometimes help a senator with placements on his or her committees.
First to be sworn in will be the winners of the 3 special elections in IL, WV, DE. The order in which these new senators will be sworn in is largely dependent on how quickly the Secretaries of State in IL and WV and the Commissioner of Elections in DE can (or choose to) send paperwork to the Senate declaring that the race has been informally decided. All 3 of these officials are Democrats, so it's not implausible that Republicans Mark Kirk (IL), John Raese (WV), or Christine O'Donnell (DE) might have to wait a bit longer than would Democrats Alexi Giannoulias (IL), Joe Manchin (WV), or Chris Coons (DE). If a contest is close, a swearing-in might have to wait until that state's final vote is officially certified. But in any event, it's clear that the next 3 senators will emerge from this group of 6 candidates.
Beyond that, the terms of other new senators will begin constitutionally on Jan. 3, with each ranked in seniority according to the following list. Note that candidates are only listed if they are seen by Senate race handicappers as having any chance to win. Also note that the Senate does not recognize the seniority of a senator sworn in prematurely merely because the outgoing senator resigns early, even if there is a gubernatorial appointment of the senator-elect to the remainder of the old senator's term.
IN's Dan Coats (R) (Former Sen.)MO's Roy Blunt (R) (7 House terms)
KS's Jerry Moran (R) (7 House terms)
OH's Rob Portman (R) (6 House terms)
AR's John Boozman (R) (4+ House terms)
FL's Kendrick Meek (D) (4 House terms)
PA's Pat Toomey (R) (3 House terms)
LA's Charlie Melancon (D) (3 House terms)
PA's Joe Sestak (D) (2 House terms)
IN's Brad Ellsworth (D) (2 House terms)
NH's Paul Hodes (D) (2 House terms)
ND's John Hoeven (R) (10 years Gov.)
FL's Charlie Crist (I) (4 years Gov.)
CA's Carly Fiorina (R)
FL's Marco Rubio (R)
OH's Lee Fisher (D)
NC's Elaine Marshall (D)
WA's Dino Rossi (R)
MO's Robin Carnahan (D)
WI's Ron Johnson (R)
CO's Ken Buck (R)
KY's Rand Paul (R)/Jack Conway (D)
CT's Richard Blumenthal (D)/Linda McMahon (R)
UT's Mike Lee (R)
NV's Sharron Angle (R)
NH's Kelly Ayotte (R)
AK's Joe Miller (R)/Scott McAdams (D)
Wow, look at all those Republican "outsiders" who served in the Senate and the House previously.
How are Tea Party people supporting these retreads?
Only those three will have a "leg up." Any other Senator who is sworn in before 1/3/11 will have exactly the same senority as if he was sworn in on 1/3/11. The trend for retiring Senators to resign a day early to give their successors a leg up was becoming problematic so the practise of granting extra senority in those circumstances was abolished.
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