What Happened To Manchin?

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) was supposed to sail through this special election and replace the late Sen. Robert Bryd (D) with ease. One of the most popular governors in the country, he was re-elected in '08 with a record-high margin, nearly 70% of the vote. His opponent, businessman John Raese (R), is a perennial candidate who's never won a race.

But recent polling shows the race to be deadlocked, with some prognosticators even giving Raese the edge. So what happened to Manchin?

While Manchin is popular - he has some of the best job approval numbers in the country - Pres. Obama is dragging his numbers down. A recent Public Policy Polling survey found Obama's West Virginia approval rating to be a dismal 30%, with 64% of voters disapproving of him. Just 51% of Democrats approve of the job he's doing while 91% of Republicans and 73% of independents disapprove of his performance.

Manchin isn't struggling when it comes to support from outside groups. The governor has raked in endorsements from a dizzying array of groups representing diverse interests. The West Virginia and U.S. Chambers of Commerce have both endorsed him, as has the AFL-CIO -- making him the only '10 candidate to win the support of both groups. The NRA threw their support to him. The West Virginia Coal Association is behind him, as is the United Mine Workers of America.

But it's unclear what effect, if any, the endorsements are having on the race.

"When you look at national issues that have resonated with West Virginia voters, the governor has the endorsements of every single interest group that pops up as important to this electorate," said Marshall University Political Science prof. Marybeth Beller.

And in a year where voter anger at the establishment reigns supreme, being endorsed by virtually every big establishment organization could even by a turn-off to some voters.

"Voters are so divided and so angry, the whole idea of the old world of endorsements lending credibility -- we might have a reverse situation there," said West Virginia Wesleyan Political Science prof. Robert Rupp.

Ultimately, it seems that endorsements, along with any other campaign issues, haven't been persuasive enough to counterbalance the fact that Manchin is a Democrat in a very bad year.

"It would seem that other factors matter more," said Beller. "Certainly John Raese and his campaign is doing a very aggressive job linking Gov. Manchin to Pres. Obama."

In spite of that, anti-Obama sentiment might be topping everything right now. Raese ads painting Manchin as anti-coal, for example, may be trumping the endorsement from the Coal Association. His most recent ad, released on Tuesday, raised the specter of Obama's cap and trade bill and claimed that Manchin supports a West Virginia version of cap and trade.

"Obama said he wants to tax coal, even to bankruptcy. Cap and trade's carbon taxes would destroy the coal industry," says the ad's narrator. "Manchin's already signed West Virginia's cap and trade into law. It's time we say no to rubber stamp Joe."

Rupp also suggested some other factors that might be contributing to Manchin's surprisingly hard fight: first, his own popularity.

"One of the interesting liabilitiesthat's hurting him is that the public likes him so much as governor," said Rupp. "He's a victim of his own success."

The controversial ad that the NRSC is pulling from the air even conceded that popularity as they linked Manchin to Obama.

"Joe's not bad as governor, but when he's with Obama..." says one man. "...he turns into Washington Joe," answers another man.

Another potential related factor, says Rupp, are West Virginians' mixed feelings about Manchin's likely would-be successor, state Senate pres. Earl Tomblin (D), and as a result, a desire to keep Manchin as their governor instead. "So ironically," said Rupp, "it's the introduction of change, and what I've been hearing is, you know Joe can do it in '12."

Additionally, West Virginia is an unusual state in that the Democrats are much stronger in-state but has gone for Republican presidential candidates in recent elections. This leads to candidates frequently running under the label of the stronger party, even if they hold views to the right.

Rupp explains that "there's no infrastructure," in the West Virginia GOP. "So if you're talented, you want to run for sheriff, you go Democrat."

"And the Democratic Party is a big tent," he added. "Therefore everyone flocks to the Democrats. ... And like Manchin, these Democrats are moving right."

The dead-heat Senate race might be evidence that though the state continues to have many more registered Democratic voters, it's becomingly dramatically more conservative and out of step with the Democrats' national agenda -- and Manchin, though he is personally conservative, may be paying for it.

Rupp, who still believes Manchin will win the race, offered up a popular West Virginia quote: "Everything in West Virginia is political except for politics, which is personal." And as for the personal, "Joe is very good at that."