November 2010

Updated, 6 p.m.

Only seven Democrats voted for the earmark moratorium in the Senate on Tuesday, including two who are likely looking ahead to their 2012 re-election bids.

Of the 23 members of the Democratic caucus who are up for re-election in 2012, Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (D) and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) supported the ban.

Their votes show that they are guarding their right flank on spending for their next campaigns. Spending -- and the national debt -- has become a dominant political issue in both Missouri and Florida, both of which look more red after the election results this year.

For McCaskill, the vote is not a sudden move to the center. McCaskill has a record of campaigning against earmarks and excessive government spending, dating back to when she was elected in 2006 -- a position that has been popular in Missouri. In fact, she has never requested an earmark and has supported banning them.

As we have noted previously, the earmark moratorium has become a rallying cry of sorts among the Tea Party segment of the Republican Party -- so much so that it caused Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to reverse his previous support for earmarks. Several Republicans who could be vulnerable to a primary challenge from the right in 2012 -- like Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) and Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) -- announced their support of the moratorium despite having sought millions in earmarks over the course of their careers.

But McCaskill and Nelson's votes show that the concern on the issue is also creeping across the aisle. Both McCaskill and Nelson have already seen challengers emerge, with Rep. Connie Mack IV (R) taking steps toward running in Florida and former state Treas. Sarah Steelman (R) and former Sen. Jim Talent (R) considering runs against McCaskill.

Notably, several Democrats who face the prospect of tough races in 2012 voted against the earmark ban -- further highlighting McCaskill and Nelson's votes. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) all voted against the moratorium.

Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.), who has been ambivalent about whether he will seek re-election in 2012, also cast a vote against the ban -- even though his Virginia counterpart, Democratic Sen. Mark Warner (Va.) supported it.

Updated 3:41 p.m.

Washington Sen. Patty Murray (D) will be the next chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the committee announced Tuesday.

The announcement comes after weeks of speculation surrounding who would succeed Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) at the helm of the committee.

In a statement, Menendez highlighted Murray's victory this year over Republican Dino Rossi.

"Patty Murray ran a smart, aggressive campaign -- a model for what all of our incumbents need to do in 2012 to be successful," Menendez said. "Patty is a great senator, a true fighter, and will no doubt have another strong term as Chair of the DSCC."

Murray was always considered among those in the running for the position, but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) also reportedly approached Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) about the job.

Murray's job of holding on to the Democratic majority won't be easy. Of the 33 Senate seats up in 2012, 23 belong to Democrats or independents who caucus with the Democrats. Among the most vulnerable will likely be Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Jim Webb (D-Va.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Ben Nelson (D-Neb.).

Murray also chaired the DSCC in the 2002 cycle.

This post was updated at 3:41 p.m. with Menendez's statement.

Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar (R) sure looks like a sucker for primary punishment - at least insofar as inviting a tough fight for renomination.

On Tuesday, Lugar was one of just eight Republicans who voted to oppose the earmark ban that his party leadership supported, a move that comes days after being the only Republican senator to publicly back Pres. Obama on his signature nuclear treaty with Russia. Of the Republican senators who split with their leadership, he's the only one facing a competitive re-election in 2012 - thanks to newfound Tea Party interest in challenging him in a primary.

Lugar's other moderate/establishment Republican colleagues facing the prospect of a primary challenge in 2012 all have become born-again earmark opponents. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas), who has defended earmarking in the past, supported the ban on the practice. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), one of the most moderate members of the Senate but anticipating a primary challenge, stamped her newfound public opposition to earmarks by voting for the ban.

Even retiring Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), Lugar's in-state colleague, voted for the ban - in line with the sentiment of his Republican-leaning state.

But not Lugar, who declared he's running for a seventh term earlier this month. Already state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, a Tea Party favorite, has said that "the door is open" for a potential run against Lugar. Mourdock won the most votes of any statewide candidate in this year's elections. State Sen. Mike Delph (R) is another conservative candidate not ruling out a primary challenge.

Needless to say, Lugar, who didn't even face Democratic opposition last time he was on the ballot, is bound to be in for the fight of his career this time around. And that has Democrats licking their chops, giving them the opportunity to pick up a seat that would otherwise be writing off.

When the Minnesota State Canvassing Board certified the results of the gubernatorial race between state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) on Nov. 23, Dayton's lead was small enough (just over 8,700 votes) to trigger an automatic recount, for which both sides have been preparing during the weeks since Election Day.

The recount began Monday, with each side dispatching representatives to locations across the state and officials hopeful for an efficient process. The first day of the recount netted Dayton a small gain in votes and the state was able to recount almost 45 percent of ballots cast. Emmer's team challenged more ballots than Dayton's did.

Dayton's lead is large enough that barring a major development in the recount, he is likely to prevail. And as noted in previous reporting, including on this blog, variables in the process could mean the recount will have a far-reaching impact.

As the process moves forward, there are a few things to keep an eye on that may turn out to be key determinants in the outcome of the race. Here's what to watch:

"Frivolous" Challenges: This year, a new statute is allowing local elections officials more authority to decide whether challenges during the recount process are frivolous. Those include challenges based upon an alleged identifying mark other than a signature or an identification number written anywhere on the ballot or a name written on the ballot completely outside of the space for the name of a write-in candidate. The new "frivolous" designation is an attempt to cut down on the number of challenged ballots that ultimately appear before the state canvassing board.

On Monday, an official in Ramsey County indicated that he would not use his authority to set aside such challenges and would send all challenges to the state canvassing board. Other counties have said they will summarize and segregate the frivolous challenges, although there appeared to be some early issues with the segregation of the frivolous challenges in Hennepin County, where the recounts had to be restarted after attorneys reminded some precincts about the rule with regard to frivolous challenges.

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune's notes: "If campaigns challenge ballots strategically, they can take votes out of the daily count posted by the Secretary of State at the end of each day, making their opponent appear to have fewer votes for a time. Eventually, the state canvassing board will wade through all the challenged ballots, make the final call on how they should count and settle the vote margins."

As counting proceeded in Ramsey County on Monday, it appeared that there would not be an overwhelming number of challenges from the area. Nonetheless, keep an eye on how each county treats and records the frivolous challenges.

Here's where it gets tricky: Frivolous challenges are to be separated from the respective piles of votes for Dayton, Emmer or others, but should still be counted for the candidates, according to the Secretary of State's recount plan. But there appears to be no guarantee that the canvassing board will take a second look at them after they are separated. Watch for complaints from either or both sides over the frivolous challenge issue as they could form the basis of an argument.

Updated, 10:27 a.m.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: the NRSC courts a Mama Grizzly in Missouri; George Allen takes some friendly fire; the bipartisan White House summit; Pentagon releases "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" report; a federal judge rules against Republican Joe Miller in Alaska (again) and Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) heads to the White House.

Scouting Out Steelman: We noted Monday in the Starting Lineup that former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R) will wait until early 2011 to decide whether he will seek a rematch with Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) -- but that he is already sounding an awful lot like a candidate.

But Hotline On Call has learned there are new signs that Talent may not be the GOP's candidate of choice in the race. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair John Cornyn (R-Texas) reached out to former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) about a Senate campaign before Thanksgiving, according to an NRSC source. In addition to encouraging her to run, Cornyn assured Steelman that the NRSC would stay neutral in a Republican primary between her and Talent.

The Cornyn-Steelman conversation is indicative of a few things. First, it shows that national Republicans aren't completely on board with Talent being their nominee. If the anti-Washington mood carries through to 2012, Talent's work as a lobbyist in 2001 won't help him. Second, the NRSC is showing a newfound interest in Steelman, a Tea Party favorite, who it shunned last year in favor of Roy Blunt. Steelman, who one GOP strategist called "Sarah Palin with an economics degree," could also neutralize Sen. Claire McCaskill's advantage winning over women voters.

The NRSC's courting of Steelman shows it has learned some lessons from last year's contentious primaries. While they worked hard to anoint establishment candidates in 2010 with little success, it now looks like they're working to court a Tea Party favorite early to avoid some of the primary messes (see: Florida, Kentucky, Delaware, Colorado, Nevada).

NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said that both candidates would be strong contenders -- and that the NRSC isn't picking sides early.

"From the NRSC's perspective there are several potential candidates, including Jim Talent and Sarah Steelman, who could mount a winning campaign against Claire McCaskill," he said. "But any implication that we might side with one over another is incorrect because the nominee will ultimately be chosen by the voters of Missouri." http://bit.ly/gix92c

Virginia Brawl: Meanwhile, it looks like former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) is taking friendly fire from a potential Republican rival in 2012 - a sign he doesn't have the Republican nomination locked up. Allen hasn't said he is running yet, but he is widely expected to get in the race.

On Monday, Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart (R) launched the opening salvo of what could be his primary challenge to Allen. Appearing on NewsChannel 8, Stewart said he is "very seriously considering" the Senate race and went on to whack Allen in no uncertain terms.

"Sen. Allen was a great governor of Virginia--he really was," Stewart said. "But his record in the United States Senate was mediocre. And I don't think most people in Virginia think of him as a great United States senator. They think of him as a great governor."

Yowza.

Hotline On Call reported earlier in November that Stewart was among those mentioned by Virginia Republicans as a potentially strong Senate candidate...if Allen didn't run. This is the first sign that Allen, who is the preferred candidate of the Virginia Republican establishment, could face a competitive path to the nomination. (Webb, it should be noted, has been unclear about whether he will seek re-election.) Check out the full clip here, via the Washington Post: http://wapo.st/hNc6zL

Summit-ville: The bipartisan summit at the White House has finally arrived, with Pres. Obama getting the jump on the meeting Monday with his proposed two-year pay freeze. Expect Republicans to press the White House on extending the Bush era tax cuts and across the board spending reductions. "If the president and Democratic leaders put forth a plan during the lame duck session to stop all of the tax hikes and cut spending, they can count on a positive response from Republicans," said one GOP leadership aide.

There may be some room for compromise; Obama's proposed pay freeze got rave reviews among Republicans on Monday.

In a Washington Post op-ed Tuesday, however, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and incoming House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) indicated that there are several areas where conflict is to be expected.

The Democrats' "focus for the brief post-election 'lame duck' session is on controversial items such as immigration, a repeal of 'don't ask, don't tell,' more spending and environmental regulations," they wrote. "Indeed, their actual legislative plan for the rest of the lame-duck session is to focus on anything but jobs." http://wapo.st/eex7Ts

Pres. Obama gets elbowed in the mouth during a Thanksgiving basketball game and Jon Stewart gets catty while going through the US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks: "Who put Prez Hilton in charge of our diplomatic core, 'Hey Columbia is that your army or did Menudo just get back together?'"

Conan O'Brien on former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin saying we've got to stand with our North Korean allies: "When told that North Korea is not our ally, Palin said 'I'm sorry I meant East Korea.'"

Today's Must See Moment -- 1:23 Jon Stewart Gets Into A Catfight

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump.

Now that all but one House race has been called, we have an excellent view of the damage that the GOP wave inflicted on Election Night. Some thoughts:

* We knew the West was a huge disappointment for the GOP, but after looking at the numbers, it was the biggest letdown of the cycle for the House GOP. The party picked up just two seats in the region -- just 3 percent of its total pickups. In contrast, in 1994, the region accounted for 20 percent of the GOP's pickups.

* Interestingly, the wave peaked in the Eastern time zone (where the GOP picked up over half its gains), and got smaller as it rolled West. A lack of Hispanic support appears to have cost the GOP seats out here, particularly in California's 20th District.

* Compared to 1994, the GOP's successes this year were much more broad-based (its lack of support in the West notwithstanding). Then, the party counted on huge gains in Washington and the South to help it win its majority. This year, the party relied just a bit less on the South, and saw bigger gains in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Mountain states. While that may bring bragging rights, it will definitely make defending these seats much harder in 2012. It's going to cost the National Republican Congressional Committee big bucks to defend those six new seats in New York, as well as those nine seats in Pennsylvania and Illinois -- states that went strongly for Pres. Obama in 2008.

Former Ambassador Ann Wagner says she will offer an alternative to the way the Republican National Committee has been run, taking barely veiled shots at incumbent chairman Michael Steele while promising not to criticize him by name.

In an interview Monday, Wagner said she has the experience necessary, as a local and national party leader and as a campaign operative, to lead the Republican Party out of debt and toward prosperity in 2012. But a large measure of her pitch is drawing a stark contrast between herself and the man she hopes to replace.

"After thinking about this and looking at the other people that are considering this race, it's hard to tell who's in and who's not, I kind of feel that I offer the most complete skill set out there for the committee to look at," Wagner told The Hotline on Monday. "I know how to put together winning campaigns. I know how to manage people, and I know how to raise the funds, which is something that really needs to be done."

Wagner pledged to rebuild the RNC's big donor program, which has declined during Steele's tenure, by meeting with big donors. And, she said, one of her first tasks will be to drag the party out of debt. The RNC's post-election FEC reports aren't due until later this week, but Wagner estimated the party could end up owing vendors as much as $20 million by the time final invoices are received.

"We have to pay off the debt, which I understand is substantial," Wagner said.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) one-upped Pres. Obama's proposed pay freeze on Monday, saying that military personnel serving outside of Afghanistan, Iraq or any other dangerous area should also be subject to the freeze.

Obama proposed a pay freeze for civilian federal and military workers on Monday, meaning that a planned 1.4 percent raise would not take effect in 2011. The move was intended to help cut federal spending.

The freeze, however, exempts all uniformed military personnel -- and that's where Hoyer is taking issue. In a statement, Hoyer said military personnel should also be subject to the freeze. Hoyer added that a "strong exception," however, should be granted to military and civilian members serving in Afghanistan, Iraq or in other dangerous areas.

"There has been parity between civilian and military pay raises for 22 of the past 28 years in which raises were authorized, and hundreds of thousands of Federal civilian employees work alongside military employees in the Department of Defense and other agencies," Hoyer said.

Obama's pay freeze is projected to save the government $5 billion in the next two years, $28 billion over the next five years and $60 billion over the next 10. That represents just a fraction of the current $1.3 trillion deficit.

Hoyer did not say in his statement how much more applying the freeze to military personnel would save the government.

Indiana Republican Rep. Mike Pence, who is considering a bid for president, will seek to position himself as a tried-and-true fiscal conservative sharply critical of both government growth and Wall Street excesses in a speech on Monday.

The speech at the Detroit Economic Club marks Pence's first major address since resigning from his post at House Republican Conference chair to focus on pursuing another political office. Pence has yet to say whether he'll mount a long-shot presidential run or seek to be Gov. Mitch Daniels' (R-Ind.) successor.

In his prepared remarks, Pence espouses taking strong action to reduce the size of government and opposes any government action into the private sector. He also outlines his support for a flat tax in the speech.

"To restore American exceptionalism, we must end all this Keynesian spending and get back to the practice of free market economics," Pence will say. "The free market is what made America's economy the greatest in the world, and we cannot falter in our willingness to defend it."

The speech sounds awfully like a candidate preparing for a presidential run, and shows where Pence may see an opening in the 2012 field - as the leading fiscal conservative without Wall Street ties (a la Romney). In the speech, he touts his support of tax and spending cuts and reminds the audience of his opposition to bailouts during his tenure in the House - framing his decisions to back Main Street over Wall Street.

"In September 2008, when the Bush Administration proposed that Congress give them $700 billion to bail out Wall Street, I was the first Member of Congress to publicly oppose it," Pence will say. "I didn't think we should do nothing, I just thought it was wrong to take $700 billion from Main Street to bailout bad decisions on Wall Street."

Nearly six in 10 Americans support allowing gay men and women to serve openly in the military, a number that suggests Americans would support repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," according to a new poll released Monday.

The Pew Research survey comes a day before the Pentagon is set to release a report on the controversial policy. The Senate Armed Services is also scheduled to hold hearings on that report Thursday and Friday.

The poll found that 58 percent of respondents support letting homosexuals serve openly in the military while 27 oppose it. Those numbers are nearly unchanged since 2005.

A higher percentage support gay servicemen serving openly now than in July of 1994, when Pres. Bill Clinton enacted the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy. Just over half -- 52 percent -- supported open service then while 45 percent opposed.

The Pew survey found a significant partisan divide on the issue -- forecasting what will likely be contentious Senate hearings later this week. Democrats and Independents favor gays serving in the military by large margins -- 70 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of independents.

Among Republicans, the Tea Party wing of the party opposes the issue more than the GOP as a whole. More Republicans oppose gays serving openly -- 44 percent -- than support it -- 40 percent. But Republicans who align with the Tea Party movement oppose it by a 10-point margin, 48 percent to 38 percent. Republicans unaligned with the Tea Party actually support gay servicemen to serve openly in the military, 52 percent to 30 percent.

The Pew survey was conducted Nov. 4 to 7 and surveyed 1,255 adults nationwide. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Former ambassador and Republican official Ann Wagner announced Monday she will mount a bid to chair the Republican National Committee, becoming the second candidate to enter the race to replace incumbent chairman Michael Steele.

In a video posted on her website, Wagner dinged Steele for the RNC's debt crisis while promising to raise the money necessary to fully fund programs some Republicans have criticized Steele for ignoring or neglecting.

"We must start immediately to erase past debt and to restore the confidence of our donor base. We must have these resources in order to take back the White House and complete the job that was started this year. Fundraising must come first," Wagner said, making reference to Steele's biggest perceived weakness. "We also must have greater transparency and accountability when it comes to the RNC's budget and expenditures."

In the video, Wagner touts her service as a local, regional, state and national party leader. She has served as Missouri Republican Party chairwoman and as co-chair of the RNC, the number two post at the committee. Wagner was appointed ambassador to Luxembourg under President George W. Bush, and in 2010 served as Sen.-elect Roy Blunt's (R) campaign chair.

"Over the years, I have written and directed state party victory plans, raised the money to implement them, managed multi-million dollar budgets, worked effectively with candidates, delivered our conservative message through the media, hired talented professionals to help get the job done, and have always known that party success starts and ends with real people doing real work to make a real difference," Wagner says. "Yes, I am a political operative. But more than that, I'm a devoted wife and mother from the middle of America."

Wagner has relationships with some RNC members, given her previous tenure. But turnover at the committee has picked up in recent years, meaning she will have to introduce herself to scores of newbies among the committee's 168 members -- a challenge that faces every potential candidate.

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. We hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving weekend.

On the radar today: Jim Talent sounds like he's pining for a rematch in Missouri; Sarah Palin does her best not to sound political in Iowa; another Minnesota recount begins; Mark Kirk gets sworn into the Senate; Rahm Emanuel's latest ad in Chicago; one more House race to go; and a tribute to Leslie Nielsen.

Talent Bides His Time: Former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R) will wait until early 2011 to announce whether he will seek a 2012 rematch with Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). But in an interview with the AP, Talent already sounded like a candidate.

"I am seriously considering it," he said. "I do feel like this is a time where everybody has to think about what they can do to help the country. This is an obvious possibility for me. I have done it before, and I think I could put on a strong race."

Former state Treasurer -- and near 2010 Senate contender -- Sarah Steelman (R) is also seriously considering the race. That would present Republicans with another establishment versus Tea Party candidate in a Senate primary. Some Republican operatives believe that if Steelman challenged House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) in this year's primary (as she originally planned to do), she would have given him a serious run for his money. A similar dynamic could unfold if both Talent and Steelman decide to take on McCaskill. http://bit.ly/gpvLHk

Minnesota Recount Deja Vu: The official recount of the Minnesota gubernatorial race begins on Monday, with 2.1 million ballots set to be tallied again. Democrat Mark Dayton was certified as the winner of the contest last week, holding a 8,770 vote lead over Republican Tom Emmer. Because of that margin, don't expect the fireworks that we saw during the Franken-Coleman recount. The recount must be completed by Dec. 7 and the state is expected to certify that tally by Dec. 14. http://bit.ly/fqbcy0

Palin, Not Sounding Political: Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin sounded decidedly not like a presidential contender during her book signing trip to Iowa over the weekend. More telling, some Iowa Republican politicos gave some telling quotes to the press during her trip.

From the New York Times: "During her three-hour visit, Ms. Palin was insulated from both the crowd and the news media. She arrived and left through a separate entrance and spent her time behind a black curtain at the back of the store, though two of her daughters wandered freely, signing autographs. People were required to leave their cellphones and cameras before approaching Ms. Palin. Reporters were prohibited from asking questions, though photographers were allowed to take pictures...

"'There are a lot of people who are willing to engage with her, but right now its almost impossible,' said Craig Robinson, who was political director for the Iowa Republican Party during the last caucus ... 'If I wanted to reach out, I wouldn't know how to do it.'" http://nyti.ms/hwq3WU

Kirk Sworn In: Illinois Sen.-elect Mark Kirk (R) becomes the newest senator on Monday, as Vice Pres. Joe Biden (D) swears him in at 5:30 in the evening. Kirk will be one of the most closely watched senators, as he will undoubtedly join the group of moderate Republicans targeted by Democrats as a potential crossover vote on key legislation starting, well, Monday.

Rahm's "Tenacity": Former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel launched his second TV ad over the weekend, a one-minute spot that chronicles Emanuel's work to keep the Chicago Paper Tube and Can Company open in Chicago.

"He wants to do what's right and he will latch on to it and pursue it, pursue it and get it done. I wish more people had that sort of tenacity," says John Dudlak, the president of the company.

The beginning of Emanuel's campaign has gone far from smoothly, as there have bee more than 10 challenges to his residency status in the city. This ad is a strong one, however, and Emanuel has a clear fundraising advantage over his competitors in the race -- he's already bought about $750,000 in air time. That ensures that his ad campaign will reach voters. http://bit.ly/hI6Jfb

Here's a statistic to pore over this Thanksgiving weekend: In 2011, there will be more Republican minorities holding governorships, Senate seats and representing majority-white House districts than Democrats.

There are only 18 elected officials who fit that category -- 10 Republican, eight Democratic. Republicans got a major diversity boost from the midterms, seeing their ranks of minorities expand from one (Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal) to nine, with the elections of Govs.-elect Susana Martinez (R-N.M.), Nikki Haley (R-S.C.), Brian Sandoval (R-Nev.), Sen.-elect Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Reps.-elect Jaime Herrera (R-Wash.), Bill Flores (R-Texas), Raul Labrador (R-Idaho), Allen West (R-Fla.) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.).

Gov. Deval Patrick (D-Mass.) heads the Democratic list of minority elected officials winning white voters, along with Sens. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii), Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) -- and Reps. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.), Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), Andre Carson (D-Ind.) and David Wu (D-Ore.).

Overall, the clear majority of minorities in Congress are Democrats. But the numbers above reflect an inconvenient reality that, even with their much more diverse caucus, Democrats face similar challenges as Republicans in recruiting, nominating and electing minority candidates to statewide office and in suburban and rural districts that are majority-white. The vast majority of Congressional Black Caucus and Congressional Hispanic Caucus members hail from urban districts where it doesn't require a crossover vote to win, or represent gerrymandered seats designed to elect a minority member of Congress. They are markedly more liberal than the average Democrat, no less the average voter, making it more difficult for them to successfully mount a statewide campaign.

Of course, the flip side for Republicans is that any time a non-white candidate wins a statewide election, their names immediately vault into contention for national office or leadership. Rubio is already being listed as a running mate contender for the next presidential election -- with several pundits even listing him as a dark-horse candidate for president in 2012. At a recent panel I moderated, Republican Governors Association political field director Phil Cox told me that all three of the minority governors-elect would be contenders to be on a national ticket in 2012 -- even though they would only be in office for less than two years. And Scott already snagged a plum post in the new Congress, serving as one of two freshman liaisons to Republican party leadership.

Welcome back to The Hotline's guide to the country's political media landscape -- your cheat sheet for how the media covered the 2010 cycle and who you'll need to read in the next two years. On Monday, we got the ball rolling with the first 10, followed up Tuesday with the next set, posted the third iteration on Wednesday and the fourth on Thursday. Here's the final installment -- from South Dakota to Wyoming.

South Dakota- The Sioux Falls Argus Leader, the largest paper in the state, was the clear leader in political coverage this year. But the Rapid City, Pierre and Aberdeen press also contributed, to a lesser degree. Sioux Fall's KELOLAND TV got the largest scoop of the year: Rep.-elect Kristi Noem's (R) driving record.

Tennessee -While there is no one newspaper in Tennessee that overwhelms the competition, there are several on par with each other. The Memphis Commercial Appeal, Knoxville News Sentinel, Chattanooga Times Free Press and Nashville Tennessean all featured daily coverage of the gubernatorial race in 2010. Nashville stands out for its volume of coverage with the Nashville City Paper making a splash this past year during the Republican primary and the Nashville Examiner being led by "Political Buzz" reporter Mike Morrow.

Texas -- The large and populous state of Texas offers political junkies an array of different metropolitan newspapers to choose from. Start with the Dallas Morning News, whose coverage of the 2010 gubernatorial race was second to none and included notable scoops, including an impressive piece of reporting that revealed millions of dollars from the Texas Emerging Technology fund went to firms with ties to Gov. Rick Perry's (R) donors. Don't overlook the Austin American-Statesman's "First Reading," the state's premier morning tip sheet, as well as the Houston Chronicle's "Texas Politics" blog and Ft. Worth Star-Telegram's "Politex."

Utah-The best Utah paper for even-handed political coverage is the Salt Lake Tribune. The Provo Daily Herald and Deseret News also provided some coverage. While the papers sufficiently covered the nuts and bolts of the races, a good analysis element was somewhat lacking this cycle.

Virginia- With four high-profile House contests, local papers -- and one national paper -- played a very large role in the state's political coverage in 2010. That was particularly the case in the contests for Reps. Glenn Nye (D) and Tom Perriello's (D) seats, as the Newport News' Kimball Payne (and his "Shad Plank" blog), as well as the Charlottesville Daily Progress' Brian McNeill and Ray Reed, performed the heavy lifting in those contests. Coverage of the other two races was lighter, but the Washington Post provided updates on Rep. Gerry Connolly's (D) contest, while Rep. Rick Boucher's (D) contest was covered by the Roanoke Times.

Former Republican National Committee political director Gentry Collins made preparations to run against chairman Michael Steele at least a week before he quit his job, according to documents filed on his behalf.

Collins ended his tenure at the RNC on Nov. 16, when he wrote a scathing letter to Steele and the RNC's executive committee accusing the incumbent chairman of leaving House and Senate seats on the table because of lackluster fundraising. Rumors quickly circulated that Collins was considering running for chairman.

In fact, a top Collins ally had already taken the first step toward a campaign. Former Iowa Republican Party chairman Brian Kennedy, Collins' close friend, had filed paperwork with the Iowa Secretary of State's office incorporating Collins for Chairman, a political committee that would allow Collins to raise unlimited funds as he explores a race.

Kennedy signed the form on Nov. 9, a week before Collins quit. The Iowa Secretary of State's office received it on Nov. 12, according to a time-stamp. The documents were first uncovered by The Iowa Republican, a prominent Hawkeye State political blog.

Collins waited seven days from the time Kennedy filed the first paperwork to unleash the memo aimed at raising new questions about Steele's tenure. Collins' memo warned the RNC "will not be a productive force in the 2012 campaign" if it continued down the path Steele had taken it. He revealed the RNC had massive debts and accused Steele of failing to fully fund the party's venerable 72-hour program.

The memo was interpreted as a major blow to Steele, given Collins' reputation among committee members and his discretion with the media. But Collins allies passed the memo to reporters even after, the documents show, he had taken the first steps toward running for chairman, presumably against Steele.

Kennedy filed the forms [pdf] incorporating the group with the IRS on Nov. 22. Collins announced he had formed the committee on Nov. 23.

Collins did not respond to an email sent on Thanksgiving Day.

Welcome back to The Hotline's guide to the country's political media landscape -- your cheat sheet for how the media covered the 2010 cycle and who you'll need to read in the next two years. On Monday, we got the ball rolling with the first 10, followed up Tuesday with the next set and posted the third iteration on Wednesday. Here's the next installment -- from New Mexico to South Carolina. Tune back in on Friday for the final 10.

New Mexico- Some of the best coverage out of New Mexico this cycle came from the blogs. NMPolitics.net's Heath Haussamen provided detailed coverage of the political and policy issues at hand in the gubernatorial race, and New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan also kept a close eye on the race. For newspapers, the strongest coverage came from the Albuquerque Journal.

New York- New York is the country's news capital for a reason. A single act by a candidate can easily generate dozens of headlines in a day, thanks in part to the state's top three political bloggers Liz Benjamin (YNN), Celeste Katz (New York Daily News) and Maggie Haberman (Politico). Home to the internationally-circulated New York Times and Wall Street Journal, New York also features several well-regarded Gannett papers, ever-lively tabloids, and regional-powerhouses like Newsday in Long Island and the Buffalo News in western New York. Those elected governor of New York are regarded as potential presidential contenders if for no other reason than the fact that they endured the relentless, and often ruthless, coverage of the New York press corps.

North Carolina- When it comes to politics in North Carolina, there is one name to know before the rest: Rob Christensen. The political reporter and occasional analyst/columnist's work appeared in both the Raleigh News and Observer and Charlotte Observer throughout the 2010 campaign season as both a beat reporter and "Under the Dome" blogger. The two Observer papers dominate state coverage, though the western half of the state is well served by the Asheville Citizen-Times and Henderson Times-News.

North Dakota-The state didn't have a competitive race to cover this cycle, but the lopsided Senate race was adequately covered by the Bismarck Tribune, Fargo Forum and Grand Forks Herald.

Ohio- The Ohio gubernatorial campaign was arguably the most important in the country, and Ohio's press coverage reflected that fact. Indeed, the big three papers -- the Columbus Dispatch, Cleveland Plain Dealer, and the Cincinnati Enquirer -- nearly overcovered that race while producing solid policy-oriented pieces. The smaller papers -- the Toledo Blade and Dayton Daily News especially -- also held their own. But the barely-competitive Senate race was ignored, perhaps deservedly so. Ohio would benefit from more blogs- the Dispatch's "Daily Briefing" tried, but could only cover so much.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has not made a final decision on whether to make a White House bid, but he's laying the groundwork and is confident he could run a serious and well-funded campaign if he decides to go ahead.

In a meeting with reporters last week in San Diego, Pawlenty said he is still contemplating whether he is the right person to lead the country out of an economic crisis.

"I haven't made a final decision yet. I mean, we're obviously looking at it. But as to whether we do it or don't do it, I'm not going to make up my mind internally for probably a few months yet," Pawlenty said. "I've got a set of experiences and skills that might benefit the country. But, I haven't made a decision whether I'm the right person to do that, whether I'm the only person who can do that."

Early polls testing the Republican primary field put Pawlenty well behind the first tier of well-known presidential candidates, which includes Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich, but ahead of some of the names who have generated conservative excitement recently, like Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and South Dakota Sen. John Thune.

The latest Quinnipiac poll of Republican primary voters put top-tier contenders within a narrow range of each other, with Palin leading at 19%, Romney at 18%, Huckabee at 17% and Gingrich at 15%. Pawlenty boasted backing from 6% of respondents, while Barbour, Daniels and Thune all scored 2% of the vote.

Pawlenty said he doesn't worry about building his name recognition. And despite Minnesota's unusually strict campaign finance laws, he believes he can raise the money necessary to do so, and to run a credible campaign.

"I think if you're a serious candidate for president, you become well-known. So over time that resolves itself. And early polls, early handicapping I think are just mere speculation," he said. Asked whether he would have the resources to mount a big campaign, Pawlenty is optimistic: "In terms of what it takes to run a Cadillac, or even a Buick, campaign in a bunch of early states, I mean if I decide to do this I think we can raise the money."

Pawlenty and Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, have been taking the most traditional steps toward a real White House campaign, hiring key staff, traveling around the country on behalf of other Republican candidates, raising money and giving the requisite speeches. That they are the only two engaging in such forward activities has built up what sounds like a rivalry between them. Pawlenty himself has stoked those flames, bashing Romney's Commonwealth Care program in Massachusetts as the basis of President Obama's health care reform measure. And that's not the only shot, overt or covert, he's taken at his possible rival.

The Associated Press declared Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) the winner in California's 11th District Wednesday afternoon, leaving only one House race still up for grabs heading into Thanksgiving Day.

McNerney holds a 2,474-vote lead over Republican David Harmer, with over 225,000 ballots cast. Nearly all of the absentee and provisional ballots have been counted, with the exception of about 2,000 in Contra Costa County and a handful from San Joaquin County - not enough to overturn McNerney's lead.

McNerney already declared victory two weeks ago. Harmer has not conceded the race as of this evening, and, despite trailing throughout the post-election tallying, attended last week's orientation session for new members of Congress.

McNerney's victory means that Republicans, despite their landslide victory across most of the country, failed to pick up a single House seat in California - and only netted a total of one seat across the entire Pacific Coast.

House Republicans have netted a total of 63 seats - with one disputed race left in New York, where Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) holds a 235-vote lead over Republican Randy Altschuler.

Welcome back to The Hotline's guide to the country's political media landscape -- your cheat sheet for how the media covered the 2010 cycle and who you'll need to read in the next two years. On Monday, we got the ball rolling with the first 10 and followed up Tuesday with the next set. Here's the next installment -- from Massachusetts to New Jersey. Tune back in on Thursday for the next 10.

Massachusetts- The political coverage in the Bay State is dominated by the two big Boston papers -- Boston Globe and the Boston Herald. The three-way gubernatorial race received in depth-attention from both papers, with the Globe being the choice for even-handed stories. Hyannis' Cape Cod Times stepped up with good coverage of the competitive race for retiring Rep. Bill Delahunt's (D) House seat.

Michigan- Michigan may be one of the best-served states for political coverage and features a variety of indispensable news sites for political junkies. The Detroit Free Press and Detroit News are the powerhouse papers while the MLive.com hosts a cadre of newspapers featuring outstanding coverage, including the Grand Rapids Press and Flint Journal. AnnArbor.com is the online-only version of the now-defunct Ann Arbor News and the Michigan Messenger is a hidden gem for political coverage. Both the Lansing State Journal and Lansing City Paper are highly devoted to politics. Widely-circulated columnist Tim Skubick and Inside Michigan Politics's Bill Ballenger are among the state's most knowledgeable analysts.

Minnesota- The Minneapolis Star-Tribune offered impressive coverage this cycle, both in articles and blog posts. The still ongoing gubernatorial race has been thoroughly covered and the state's competitive House races were also devoted ink. "Hot Dish Politics", the paper's political blog, consistently offered useful news and analysis from a variety of reporters. The St. Paul Pioneer Press has also been consistently covering the post-Nov. 2 activities in the gubernatorial race. The Duluth News Tribune offered good regional coverage during the election and when a statewide candidate was stumping in the area, the paper's pieces were worth a read. Minnesota Public Radio's coverage was solid as well.

Mississippi- Early on, Rep. Travis Childers' (D) uphill bid to hold his seat was the main focus in this state. And the Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal's Emily Le Coz and Patsy Brumfield, along with the Memphis Commercial Appeal, were the race's go-to papers, with nearly daily coverage of the contest. Later, as it became apparent that once-invincible Rep. Gene Taylor (D) was in trouble, the Biloxi Sun-Herald broke news with a Taylor interview where he said he actually voted for John McCain in 2008.

Missouri-The Senate race in Missouri never really took off, and local coverage was of the race was fairly light. The St. Louis Beacon, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and Kansas City Star's "Prime Buzz" blog provided the best in-state coverage of the race.

Former Republican National Committee political director Gentry Collins has filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to establish a 527 organization that allows him to raise and spend unlimited funds as he contemplates a campaign for RNC chairman, he confirmed Tuesday.

"I have been encouraged by many friends, both on the committee and from outside the committee, to take this step as the RNC prepares to elect a Chairman in January," COllins said. He called the filings the "first step in exploring a run" for the committee's top job.

But Collins has taken several other steps behind closed doors. Last week, he attended the Republican Governors Association's annual meeting in San Diego, where he met with committee members and addressed a private gathering of governors and governors-elect. He has also been making phone calls aimed at locking down early votes.

Collins is the third potential candidate to file paperwork allowing him to explore a bid. He joins former RNC co-chair and former Ambassador Ann Wagner and former RNC official Maria Cino, who also worked in the Bush administration. Both women have established groups that will allow them to raise funds for the race.

None of the three candidates have jumped into the race, though. Only Michigan national committee member Saul Anuzis has declared himself a candidate. On Tuesday, Anuzis announced he had won backing from eight prominent members, bringing his total number of votes to ten.

Jimmy Fallon wants to see New Jersey Governor Chris Christie run as former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin's Vice President in 2012. And Jimmy Kimmel has no mercy for Bristol Palin after she lost in the finale of "Dancing With The Stars": "At about 2 o'clock this morning Bristol Palin will be deported back to Alaska, to dance exclusively with wolves."

Kimmel is also excited that Sarah Palin's new book is out in time for the holidays: "It's mostly her typical Sarah Palin-y stuff. But I have to say the chapter on igloo construction is indispensable."

Today's Must See Moment: Fast Forward to 1:49 to see what Christie thinks about Palin for president in 2012.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump!

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA) was finally declared the winner today in his Central Valley district, while Rep. Dan Maffei (D-NY) conceded defeat in his Syracuse-based seat.

The combination of the two results gives Republicans a net gain of 63 seats for the cycle.

Costa found himself trailing farmer Andy Vidak (R) on Election Night, but as mail ballots and absentee votes were counted, he managed to grab a lead and never look back. He finished with a 3,031-vote edge over Vidak, and won 52-48.

Maffei's race was closer, but as we've reported previously, he had little chance of recovering from Republican Ann Marie Buerkle's 567-vote advantage. Maffei had considered a recount, but was reportedly under pressure to concede.

In other undecided House contests, Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY) holds a 235-vote edge over Republican Randy Altschuler as absentee ballot counting came to a close. There are challenges to over 2,000 ballots, but Bishop's camp said Altschuler objected to most of them, meaning Bishops lead may indeed be greater.

In the other race, Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-CA) hold a building lead in his contest.

Welcome back to The Hotline's guide to the country's political media landscape -- your cheat sheet for how the media covered the 2010 cycle and who you'll need to read in the next two years. On Monday, we got the ball rolling with the first 10. Here's the next installment -- from Hawaii to Maryland. Tune back in on Wednesday for the next 10.

Hawaii- The recently created Honolulu Star-Advertiser, which was created when Honolulu Star-Bulletin and Honolulu Advertiser merged and is the state's largest newspaper, is a good source of political news. During this year's gubernatorial race, when the candidates hit the campaign trail on the neighbor islands, the Maui News and Kaua'i's Garden Island newspaper were two other good choices.

Idaho- The Idaho Statesman dominates the coverage here, and does a good job at it. That was especially true this year, helped by an exciting House race and a fairly interesting gubernatorial campaign. The Spokane Spokesman-Review and the AP also pitch in with solid Idaho coverage.

Illinois- Illinois's press coverage, like its politics, is dominated by Chicago. But the Tribune and Sun-Times are both under significant financial constraints, and thus their coverage of the Senate race was pretty light this cycle. They did better in the gubernatorial race, especially the Trib's investigative team. Downstate papers rounded out the gubernatorial coverage but pretty much ignoring the Senate race. The best political scoops and analysis in Illinois came from Rich Miller's "Capitol Fax," a subscription site which often beat the big papers at their own game.

Indiana- While the Indianapolis Star and Evansville Courier & Press deserve mention for their excellent coverage, it is really the smaller outlets/websites that are most intriguing about the Indiana political press. Howey Politics Indiana has become a must-read for analysis and breaking news and both locals and out-of-staters have taken notice. Meanwhile, the subscriber-only newsletter "Indiana Legislative Insight" provides a top to bottom look at all of the state's noteworthy races, including useful tidbits from the big races seldom seen elsewhere.

Several prominent Republican National Committee members who backed chairman Michael Steele in 2009 will not support him this year, switching instead to support Steele's only announced rival.

Michigan RNC member Saul Anuzis, who announced his candidacy two weeks ago, will roll out his first roster of endorsements Tuesday in an effort to capture momentum before other candidates announce their own bids after the Thanksgiving break.

Some of the eight new RNC members publicly supporting Anuzis had backed Steele on the final ballots in 2009. They include Rhode Island GOP chairman Gio Cicione, Colorado Republican Party chairman Dick Wadhams and Delaware state GOP chair Tom Ross. Ross's defection will be the most painful for Steele, for whom Ross served as a regional whip during the votes.

Anuzis will also unveil support from West Virginia GOP chair Mike Stuart, Nebraska party chief Mark Fahleson and national committee members Linda Ackerman of California, Dana Randall of South Dakota and Heidi Smith of Nevada. With his own vote and support from Virginia national committee member Morton Blackwell, Anuzis now has 10 votes for chairman.

Other contenders, though, are showing no signs of backing down. Former RNC co-chair Ann Wagner has filed paperwork establishing a fundraising vehicle with the IRS. Former RNC official Maria Cino has filed similar paperwork with the FEC. And Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus is close to making his own decision, and he's already garnering support from other committee members like Illinois GOP chairman Pat Brady.

The roster of possible candidates also includes Republican Governors Association executive director Nick Ayers, former RNC political director Gentry Collins, former RNC chairman Mike Duncan, Connecticut party chairman Chris Healy and former South Carolina party chair Katon Dawson. Dawson has hinted he is also working to pull in a big name that would quickly coalesce RNC members.

What's unknown is whether Steele himself will run for re-election. Steele's inner circle has begun to crumble; Priebus, Brady and Ross were all big backers of Steele's 2009 campaign, and their departure has many speculating that Steele won't have the votes he needs to make a strong first-ballot showing. Steele has few public supporters, including Idaho party chairman Norm Semanko, who made his support for Steele public in a letter last week.

Steele has been on a post-election vacation, traveling to Rome to witness Washington Archbishop Donald Wuerl become a cardinal.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry says he won't run for president in 2012, despite a national book tour aimed at bolstering his profile among conservatives. The clear evidence came last week in San Diego, when he agreed to take over as chairman of the Republican Governors Association for the next two years.

"The truth is, I don't want to be the president of the United States. I have stated that now for better than two years," Perry told us in an interview at the RGA meeting. "I don't want to go to Washington, D.C. I don't want to be your vice president. I don't want to be your cabinet member."

Perry's book tour coincides with promotional trips by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, both of whom are widely viewed as possible presidential candidates. But Perry insisted he's happy where he is, as governor of the country's second-largest state and as one of the leading advocates of the 10th Amendment. In fact, his book is more evidence, he maintains, that he's not contemplating a national bid.

Sometimes the ads that are the most fun to watch are the ones that are cringeworthy -- and there were plenty of them this year.

On Monday, we brought you our 10 favorite ads of cycle and, of course, no Top 10 list is complete without its counterpart -- the 10 worst ads.

So from children pawing Rep. Alan Grayson's (D-Fla.) face, to the infamous "Hicky" ad to a hot dog eating contest, here are our picks as the worst ads of the cycle.

1) "Alan Grayson Saved Our Schools" Nothing encapsulated the difference between a politician's campaign and legislative persona than this ad from Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.). In the spot, Grayson, who is known for his rants on the House floor in the media, is hugged by chanting children -- one of whom paws his face. This one comes awfully close to parodying itself.

2) "I'm You" This Christine O'Donnell (R) Delaware Senate ad needs no introduction. The ad, where she says she's "not a witch," sparked plenty of coverage and parodies. It didn't work, though, because it only made her seem, well, more eccentric.

3) "Washington Joe" This National Republican Senatorial Committee ad targeting Sen.-elect Joe Manchin (D) was actually an effective ad that skillfully used Manchin's popularity against him by saying he should stay in West Virginia as governor. The problem was the furor that erupted surrounding the NRSC's vendor seeking out "hicky" actors for the spot. The story gave Manchin some badly-needed momentum at the time, and Republican John Raese (R) never got close to Manchin again.

4) "Why?" (aka "Aqua Buddha") This ad from Democrat Jack Conway (D) targeting Sen.-elect Rand Paul (R) in the Kentucky Senate race got plenty of ink - for all the wrong reasons. The ad, which attacked Paul for his membership in a controversial group while he was in college, was roundly criticized by the left and the right as going too far, and Conway's numbers collapsed after its airing.

5) "No Mosque At Ground Zero" If this ad from Rep.-elect Renee Ellmers (R-N.C.), one of her few spots this cycle, didn't cross the line, it came awfully close. The ad alleges that the proposed mosque near Ground Zero would be a "victory mosque" for Muslims following the 9/11 attacks.

6) "The Wave" Like Ellmers' ad above, this Sharron Angle (R) ad in the Nevada Senate race went too far. The ad hit Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) on immigration policy, while showing images of Hispanics and saying illegal immigrants are joining violent gangs. The political problem: Nevada's large Hispanic voting bloc. Those voters turned out to be critical, and Reid carried them by a large margin on Election Day.

7) "Taliban Dan" Grayson's ads actually make this list twice. This ad ripped a clip out of a speech that Rep.-elect Daniel Webster (R) gave completely out of context to insinuate that Webster had fundamentalist views toward women. The problem? Webster was actually saying the exact opposite.

8) "Hotdog" New Hampshire Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) Senate campaign never gained much ground on Sen.-elect Kelly Ayotte (R) and this ad didn't help. Hodes' image wasn't well defined throughout the campaign and this ad, featuring a hot dog eating contest, failed to present why Hodes was the better candidate. Give it a watch and see if you can focus on anything but the guys in the background scarfing down hot dogs and recall anything Hodes says.

9) "Introduce" There wasn't anything technically wrong with this closing ad from Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.), but when he aired it you could tell the writing was on the wall for his defeat. The first red flag was its title -- "Introduce" -- which is never a good thing for a congressman first elected in 1992 to be doing in the closing weeks of a campaign. Pomeroy then goes on to say he knows he's "disappointed" North Dakota voters occasionally. Yikes. Pomeroy went on to lose to Republican Rick Berg

10) "Leader" Like Pomeroy's ad, there is nothing glaring in this spot from Colorado Senate contender Ken Buck (R). But like all of Buck's ads, this one lacked the production values of other ads this cycle. Take a look. What's going on with the faded corners? Or that music (which, by the way, was in all of Buck's ads)? Or the stump speech that looks like it was shot in his living room or office? TV ads can be emblematic of entire campaigns, and in this case Buck's ads illustrated why Sen. Michael Bennet (D) was able to hold on this year against an inexperienced Tea Party candidate like Buck.

Honorable Mention:: "Independence" This Charlie Crist (I) Florida Senate ad pretty much summed up Crist's problems this year. In it, he attacked Republican Marco Rubio for his "extreme" positions on issues like abortion rights. The ad fell on its face, however, because of Crist's well-documented flip-flopping on the issue.

Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D-TX) conceded his contest late Monday to Rep.-elect Blake Farenthold (R), after a recount could not overturn a nearly 800-vote lead for the Republican.

Five of the six counties in the district finished recounting their ballots late last week, and each reported nominal or no changes to its previous tally. Because of that, all eyes were on Cameron Co., which finished Monday. Ortiz spokesperson Jose Borjon told the Corpus Christi Daily Caller that Ortiz picked up a substantial number of votes there -- about 146 -- but it was not enough to overturn the result.

In the end, Farenthold won by 648 votes.

The Republican is one of this cycle's most unlikely winners. Even he didn't fully expect to win, despite late polling from his campaign that showed him leading the South Texas incumbent. "Early on in the race, I had a nightmare that I won," Farenthold told a local TV outlet on Election Night. "And now it's like, 'Now what do I do?'"

Democrats believed they had stemmed his momentum late in the race when they released photos of him in pajamas standing next to a scantily clad young woman. That photo has become part of this cycle's campaign lure, but it did not stop the Republican from winning this heavily Hispanic district.

With this race in the books, Republicans have now pushed their net House gains to 62 seats this cycle. In addition, there are four remaining House contests that are still in doubt. Republicans lead in one (NY 25), while Democrats lead in CA 11, CA 20 and NY 01.

Jimmy Fallon isn't impressed with former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin's new book and Jimmy Kimmel is seriously worried that Bristol Palin might win "Dancing With The Stars": "Bristol Palin who isn't any good at all, but who's mother has an army of Eskimo robots voting for her 24 hours a day."

Conan O'Brien goes for the easy joke after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton weighs in on the TSA pat downs: "Said that she would not like to go through the pat downs. Yeah after hearing this Bill Clinton said I think we all know where Hillary stands on being touched."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:47 for David Letterman's Great Moments in Presidential Memoirs.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

One of the tricks of the Hotline trade is that our staffers spend hours each weekday reading hundreds of newspapers from every state in the nation. That allows us to produce coverage of campaigns and politics at the state level. It also means we get to know (and mostly love) the press in the beats we cover -- from the Aberdeen American News to the Zanesville Times-Recorder.

Despite the myriad financial woes facing journalists and newspapers today, the press continues to persevere. So the Hotline gives thanks this Thanksgiving week to the tireless press, by sharing our collective knowledge of this cycle's coverage and letting you know the need-to-read papers and journalists state-by-state. Who soared? Who suffered? Who broke the biggest stories? Here's what we think.

Be sure to check back in throughout the week as we roll out each state, 10 at a time.

Alabama- Like Michigan, New Jersey and other states, three of Alabama's major newspapers are all conveniently lumped together at a "live" Web site, AL.com: Birmingham News, Mobile Press-Register and Huntsville Times. The three papers covered the 2010 governor's race in depth and on a day-to-day basis, offering substantial competition to the Anniston Star and Gannett's Montgomery Advertiser. As a whole, Alabama's papers are actively engaged and their major newspapers all offer endorsements. Reporters Sebastian Kitchen (Advertiser) and George Talbot (Press-Register) are among some of the stand-out reporters while former state Rep. Steve Flowers serves one of the premier political analysts in the state.

Alaska- This has been a tumultuous election season, to put it mildly, in the 49th state. But the state's newspapers have risen to the occasion, with Anchorage Daily News leading the coverage of the Republican primary upset, write-in campaign, and ballot count that led to what appears to be a historic win for Sen. Lisa Murkowki's (R). Fairbanks Daily News-Miner has also had notable coverage, as has the Alaska Dispatch -- which sued to access Joe Miller's (R) employment records. It was also an Alaska Dispatch reporter that was arrested by Miller's private security detail in perhaps the biggest scandal during the campaign.

Arkansas- Arkansas uses a conglomerate Web site of its own in ArkansasOnline.com, which is chiefly the host site for the state's newspaper standard-bearer Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. The online content is protected behind a pay wall, however, unlike its rival Arkansas News Bureau. Several individuals stand out for covering politics, including John Lyon (News Bureau), Sarah Wire (Gazette) and columnist John Brummett (Gazette). Conservative blogger Jason Tolbert of "The Tolbert Report" offered frequent and blunt assessments of the 2010 Senate and gubernatorial races without an overwhelming sense of ideological bias, along with now-former "Blake's Think Tank" blogger Blake Rutherford.

Arizona-Tucson's Arizona Daily Star's political news blog is one of the best in the state, while Arizona Capitol Times, a newspaper dedicated to state politics often gets into the nitty gritty that other papers shy away from. The best starting point however, remains Arizona Republic, the state's largest paper. Recall that the Republic first reported that Senate candidate and former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) pitched government grants -- a piece that was one of the biggest stories from that race.

California- The Golden State had two huge races to cover this year. The exciting gubernatorial race got the most in-depth coverage, with the Los Angeles Times, San Francisco Chronicle and Sacramento Bee leading the coverage, while the Fresno Bee and Contra Costa Times holding their own. But the gubernatorial race at times seemed to suck up all the air in the state's press, and the less exciting but equally competitive Senate race could was often short-changed as a result.

We at The Hotline saw virtually every political ad this cycle and by Election Day most of them just blended together.

A few, however, stood out - in a good way - and it was usually when the ad did something unexpected. So, from lumberjacks to boxing bags to firing ranges, here are The Hotline's Top 10 Ads of 2010.

1) "Get America Rolling Again!" Wisconsin Rep.-elect Sean Duffy (R) ran some of the most effective ads this cycle, but this one by far was his best. The former MTV Real Worlder and lumberjack competitor announced early the cycle that he would take on veteran Rep. David Obey (D-Wis.), before Obey announced his retirement. Duffy is a likely to be a rising star in the GOP and, in this spot, he used a log spinning competition to "dunk career politicians."

2) "Echo" No ad better tied a candidate to another politician than California Gov.-elect Jerry Brown's attack on Republican Meg Whitman. The ad showed Whitman saying the exact same words as outgoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is deeply unpopular in California, a dozen times. Brown had a knack for using Whitman's words against her in campaign ads, as illustrated by another devastating attack ad.

3) "Dead Aim" On the flipside, no ad more effectively distanced a candidate from another politician and policy than this ad from West Virginia Sen.-elect Joe Manchin. The ad illustrated that Manchin is no lily-livered Democratic lapdog to the Obama administration as he literally shot cap and trade energy legislation with his rifle. The ad was critical because up to that point Republican John Raese had closed the gap on Manchin because he was able to effectively label Manchin a "rubber stamp" for the president.

4) "Who Are You?" This Americans for Job Security ad targeted Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-N.C.) when his Republican challenger Renee Ellmers couldn't afford to air any ads. The ad highlighted Etheridge's now infamous shoving incident that was caught on tape and put Etheridge's re-election bid on the radar screen of competitive races for the first time. After a recount, Etheridge conceded last Friday.

5) "Noem For Congress" This spot introduced Kristi Noem, a top Republican recruit, to South Dakota as a relatable and attractive alternative to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D). Noem is now a rising star in the party and is already part of the Republican House leadership.

6) "Punching Bag" Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.) aired effective ads throughout the cycle that helped him keep his race against Republican Rep.-elect Robert Hurt close. This one, in which Perriello becomes a punching bag, was particularly eye catching.

7) "Change For The Worse" One of the longest-serving Democrats to fall on Election Day was House Armed Services Committee Chair Ike Skelton (D-Mo.). Republican Vicky Hartzler was able to unseat the old bull in part by using clever and hard hitting ads. This one features Skelton repeatedly telling a colleague on the House floor to "stick it up your..." well you get the idea.

8) "Vote" Virtually every Republican challenger sought to tie Democratic incumbents to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), but one did so as effectively as Republican Rep.-elect Steven Palazzo (Miss.). In this ad, Palazzo uses the footage of Rep. Gene Taylor (D) voting for Pelosi to become Speaker in 2007. It was a clever use of C-SPAN footage, especially considering Taylor frequently split from Pelosi on major issues.

9) "Own Words" Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek's (D) Senate campaign did not go as he had hoped, but this ad using Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) words from when he was a Republican was jaw-dropping.

10) "The Johnson Family" Wisconsin Sen.-elect Ron Johnson (R) used creative ads throughout the cycle to set him apart as a not-your-typical-politician-type candidate. This one introduced the political newcomer to Wisconsin -- a state that has historically liked unique ads -- and set the stage for his runaway win over Sen.Russ Feingold (D).

Honorable mention: "Sir" This early Fred Davis-produced ad from Republican Carly Fiorina (R) put her challenge to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) on the map. It seemed to encapsulate negative feelings toward Boxer in just 20 seconds. It wasn't enough: Boxer cruised to re-election after an early scare.

While it is still early, Pres. Obama looks to be facing a challenging fight for re-election in 2012 as a near-majority of registered voters do not believe he deserves to be elected for another term, according a new Quinnipiac poll released Monday.

The Quinnipiac Poll found that 49 percent of respondents said Obama does not deserve to be re-elected while 43 percent say he does.

Obama is suffering particularly among independents -- 51 percent of whom said he doesn't deserve re-election while 35 percent said he does. Exactly 50 percent have a negative opinion of the Democratic Party -- the first time that number has hit the majority mark since April.

The silver lining for Obama is that no Republican challenger has emerged as a world-beater. Among Republicans in the survey, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) was the candidate of choice by 19 percent, compared to 18 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), 17 percent for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 15 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.).

The problem for Republicans, however, is that Palin ran worst against Obama in the potential head to head matchups, and holds lousy approval ratings. Palin trailed Obama 48 percent to 40 percent in the poll. But Romney led Obama 45 percent to 44 percent in the survey while Obama was up three on Huckabee, 46 to 43 percent.

The Democratic base, however, is in Obama's corner. Nearly two thirds of Democrats -- 64 percent -- said Obama should be the Democratic nominee in 2012. Only 27 percent said the Democratic Party should select someone else.

"The Democratic base remains squarely behind Pres. Barack Obama when it comes to his re-election, but his weakness among independent voters at this point makes his 2012 election prospects uncertain," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said.

Despite issues some conservatives have with two of the leading contenders - Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee - their numbers are still strong within the Republican party. Only nine percent of Republicans view the former Massachusetts governor unfavorably, while 64 percent view him favorably. Huckabee scores even better, with 69 percent viewing him favorably and nine percent unfavorably.

Palin's unfavorables among Republicans, by contrast, have hit 17 percent -- with 74 percent viewing her favorably.

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Joe Miller (R) gets another day in court; the Virginia GOP boosts George Allen(R) to run for his old Senate seat; Sarah Palin (R) goes shopping for office space in Iowa; Pete Hoekstra (R) considers a Senate run in Michigan and the latest results from the still outstanding House races.

A quick programming note: Your Hotline On Call editor will be taking the rest of this week off to recharge the batteries and enjoy plenty of turkey and football. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

D-Day For Miller (Again): Republican Joe Miller will likely continue his legal battle in the Alaska Senate race by seeking an injunction to stop the certification of the election results in a state level court on Monday. Miller asked a federal judge for an injunction at the end of last week and was successful, insofar as the federal judge halted certification but said the issue was, ultimately, up to a state court. Miller's deadline for filing with a state court is Monday.

Miller is seeking to have the state throw out any write-in ballots for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) where her name doesn't appear exactly as it did on her candidacy declaration. http://bit.ly/9Gh9GP

Meanwhile, one Republican who isn't giving up the fight for Miller is Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.). DeMint continues to raise funds for Miller's legal defense fund on the Southern Conservatives Fund website. According to the website, DeMint has raised $152,200 for Miller so far. http://bit.ly/9bvVKR

Virginia GOP Opts For Senate Primary: The Virginia Republican Party decided over the weekend that it will select its nominee for the 2012 Senate race in a primary rather than a state convention. The decision is intended to prevent any surprises for former Sen. George Allen's (R) prospects, as he reportedly preferred a primary. Primaries, that thinking goes, are less susceptible to upsets by more conservative insurgents.

Republicans in Virginia, particularly conservatives, have preferred the convention nomination route - and that's been the most widely used nomination model in recent years. When moderate former Rep. Tom Davis (R) mulled running for the Senate in 2008 and advocated for a primary to choose the nominee, he was shunned by the more-conservative forces backing former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R).

But with the newfound assertiveness of the conservative grassroots, even a conservative like Allen isn't immune from a nomination challenge, especially in a convention process which increases the likelihood of an upset. With his financial and organizational advantages, Allen would be a heavy favorite in a primary against lesser-known challengers.

Allen has yet to announce that he will challenge Sen. Jim Webb (D) in a rematch of their 2006 race, but he has given strong hints that he's seeking a rematch and is by far the state GOP's preferred candidate. Webb has yet to say whether he will seek re-election. http://bit.ly/bbkzBn

Hoekstra For Senate? Outgoing Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) left the door open to a possible challenge to Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in 2012 in an interview over the weekend. "Lots of people have talked to me about that," Hoekstra told the Grand Rapids Press, "but we just got through a grueling race."

Hoekstra lost the gubernatorial primary this year. He is the first high profile Republican to say he is considering the 2012 race against Stabenow, which will be a closely watched pick up opportunity for the GOP. Republicans made significant gains in Michigan this November and now control the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature. http://bit.ly/actQC1

Jimmy Fallon is still impersonating George W. Bush and Seth Meyers goes after the Oxford Dictionary for naming former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin's (R) made up word "refudiate" the 2010 Word Of The Year: "Shakespeare crafted new words. Sarah Palin got into a word fender bender."

Jay Leno wishes Vice Pres. Joe Biden a happy birthday: "Pres. Obama got him a gag gift. Not a funny gift, it's an actual gag."

Today's Must See Moment: Fast forward to 0:34 for the differences between Shakespeare and Palin.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

The final county has counted its absentee ballots in Upstate New York, and it appears to have lifted Republican Ann Marie Buerkle (R) to a very narrow victory over Rep. Dan Maffei (D). The Syracuse Post-Standard says Buerkle now has a 567-vote lead.

In counting its absentee ballots, Wayne County -- which gave Buerkle 63 percent of the vote on Election Day -- boosted the Republican's lead over Maffei by 269 votes, according to numbers released by county elections officials. Buerkle won 60 percent of the absentee ballots there.

Maffei netted 557 votes from a count of absentees in Onondaga County -- his base -- on Friday. That was a large gain, but not enough to overcome Buerkle's marginal lead. Wayne County's tally only padded her edge.

Attorneys will head to court early this week to argue over whether a handful of disputed absentee ballots should be counted. But a Onondaga County elections official noted that Maffei's campaign was the one that objected to most of those disputed ballots, meaning that any count would likely only boost Buerkle's lead.

Maffei has indicated he may ask for a recount, but Democrats should not put too much hope in that process. In several other House contests this year, recounts have changed the final result by just a handful of votes; certainly not enough to overturn the certified result.

If Maffei does not ask for a recount, Buerkle's win means House Republicans have netted 62 seats this cycle. There are four other races that have yet to be called by the AP, and Democrats lead in three, while Republicans hold the advantage in one.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- If you can actually pull off what Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) did -- not necessarily a write-in campaign, but breaking with your party and making an independent run for office -- the payoff can be substantial. Murkowski will return to D.C. a hero of sorts, retaining her ranking member status on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee but empowered with a newfound independence from the GOP. Indeed, in the last week Murkowski has felt free to go after both Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

-- Attorney Joe Miller (R) doesn't know when to stop. The Alaska Senate race has now been called by the AP. Murkowski has declared victory. Her lead is widely believed to be insurmountable. The Anchorage Daily News has called for Miller to accept defeat, as has the state GOP. Miller's refusal to do so at this point will likely ruin any chance he had to run for statewide office in the future.

-- After losing this year, Linda McMahon may be gearing up for a Connecticut Senate run against Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) in 2012. But look for the real battle to be in the Democratic primary, where Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) will probably face off against Ted Kennedy Jr. (D) and one or more sitting Congressmen.

-- Politicians are waiting on a miracle if they're expecting a bad result to be overturned in a recount. Just this week, recounts in Rep. Solomon Ortiz's (D-Texas) and Bob Etheridge's (D-N.C.) districts showed only a negligible change, something Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.) apparently knew when she turned down a chance at a recount earlier this week, despite losing by just 290 votes.

-- The remaining Blue Dogs' vocal but ultimately futile opposition to the election of Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) as Minority Leader shows that they may be more trouble for her in the next Congress than they were in the last. And look for a few switches along the way -- has anyone asked Rep. Dan Boren (D-Okla.) who he voted for in 2008?

Onondaga County absentee ballots gave Rep. Dan Maffei (D-N.Y.) a boost, but it wasn't big enough to topple assistant Attorney General Ann Marie Buerkle (R), who elections officials estimate holds a 400-vote lead in the Upstate New York race.

Officials announced late Friday that Maffei gained 557 votes from the county, which was his base. But Buerkle was fortified by a more than 800-vote lead heading into that count, which was more than enough to withstand Maffei's surge there.

In addition, Onondaga County Elections Commis. Helen Kiggins said that a Wayne County recanvass netted the Republican candidate 144 votes today, giving her an approximately 400-vote cushion heading into absentee vote counting there. Wayne County went strongly for Buerkle on Election Day and roughly 1,200 votes will be counted there beginning tomorrow.

Buerkle's campaign released a statement this afternoon claiming the math doesn't add up for Maffei. "At some point the numbers just don't work," Buerkle spokesperson Liza Lowery said. "There is not room for Maffei to gain anymore ground in this race."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has tapped Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) to be the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for the 2012 cycle when Democrats will look to regain seats after significant losses this year.

The move comes shortly after Pelosi was elected to be House Minority Leader in the next Congress.

In a statement, Pelosi praised Israel's ability to win districts in difficult territory.

"Steve Israel has demonstrated extraordinary capabilities in recruiting candidates, in attracting resources, and in communicating core Democratic values for middle class and working families," Pelosi said. "As DCCC Chairman, Congressman Israel's practical experience in running and winning in difficult districts will provide critical leadership for Democrats to regain the majority in 2012."

Israel was the frontrunner for the job and is considered one of the more politically savvy members in the caucus. Other names that were floated as possibilities included Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), a rising star in the caucus, Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.) and Bruce Braley (D-Iowa). Israel, a close ally of Pelosi's, was the clear favorite throughout the process.

Israel will take over for Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who held the position for the last two cycles.

The New Yorker will face a very different playing field in 2012 because reapportionment following the 2010 census will redraw House districts -- some in significant ways. Managing that process will be one of the many responsibilities Israel will be tasked with in a cycle that offers Democrats some opportunities to win back control of the House, but also risk with certain members losing their seats in redrawn districts.

This post was updated at 4:15 p.m. with Pelosi's statement.

The new START treaty and NATO will be on tap this weekend as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Admiral Mike Mullen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff make the Sunday morning rounds. Clinton will appear on "Meet the Press," "Face the Nation" and "FOX News Sunday." Mullen will appear on "This Week and "State of the Union." House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) will face Bob Schieffer on CBS to discuss the lame duck session in Congress. House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.), meanwhile, will appear on CSPAN's "Newsmakers."

In addition to hosting Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Bloomberg TV will interview Treasury Sec. Timothy Geithner on the Bush tax cuts, General Motor's stock offering and the current economic conditions.

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-La.), New York Times Magazine's Robert Draper, Wall Street Journal's Paul Gigot, Rep.-elect Allen West (R-Fla.) and MSNBC's Richard Wolffe.
Face the Nation hosts Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.).
This Week hosts Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Adm. Mike Mullen.
Fox News Sunday hosts Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Gov. Rick Perry (R-Texas).
State of the Union hosts Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Adm. Mike Mullen and Rep. John Mica (R-Fla.).

Other Weekend Shows

Political Capital features Homeland Security Sec. Janet Napolitano and Treasury Sec. Timothy Geithner (Bloomberg, Friday, 7 p.m.).
Washington Week features New York Times' David Sanger, NBC's Pete Williams, Wall Street Journal's Janet Hook and New York Times' John Harwood (PBS, Friday, 8 p.m.).

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele pushed back on his critics this week in a memo to RNC members that highlights the committee's accomplishments this cycle.

The memo, obtained by Hotline On Call, appears to be a direct response to the letter RNC political director Gentry Collins sent to Steele earlier this week announcing his resignation and roundly criticizing Steele's fundraising efforts.

The memo is the clearest sign yet, however, that Steele isn't backing away from a fight and is very seriously considering a run for a second term.

"I wanted to highlight two great RNC success stories--fundraising and get-out-the-vote operations," Steele wrote in the memo, which was sent to RNC members on Thursday. "Also, with respect to our record turnout operations, I wanted [to] provide further background on how the RNC helped achieve what was, by far, the greatest turnout by any party in any midterm election in U.S. history by translating the energy of grass roots conservatives into record turnout for GOP candidates."

Steele goes on to note RNC fundraising accomplishments -- the area that Collins roundly criticized in his resignation letter earlier this week. Collins argued that there were 21 House races across the country where Republicans came up short because of the RNC's fundraising problems.

Steele pushed back on that argument. The memo states that the RNC "raised and spent more money in this cycle on behalf of Republican candidates -- by far-- than any other entity" and the RNC "smashed the record" for most money collected in a midterm cycle "by any political committee whose party did not control Congress or the White House." He goes on to say that the RNC raised more than $179 million this cycle, 37 percent more than the Democratic National Committee raised in 2006, when Democrats were in the minority and a Republican lived in the White House.

Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-N.C.) formally conceded this afternoon after results from a completed recount were expected to show he didn't make up any significant ground in his race against Rep.-elect Renee Ellmers (R).

In his concession statement, an irritated Etheridge placed blame on a negative campaign that outside groups waged against him.  Specifically, he pinpointed the GOP's role in recording him getting into a shoving incident with a student earlier this year - footage that was later used in a campaign ad against him. 

"The combination of the national tide that swept the country, massive amounts of secret corporate cash funding a campaign of distortions, and dirty politics by Washington, DC partisan operatives was just too much to overcome," Etheridge said.  

"But what's done is done.   I congratulate Mrs. Ellmers and wish her well as she prepares to serve the people of North Carolina's Second District."

Officials certified Ellmers as the winner last week, but because her 1,489-vote lead over Etheridge was less than one percent of the total votes cast, the incumbent was legally permitted to ask for a recount.

The results of the recount will be announced this afternoon, but preliminary reports suggest they show no significant difference from the certified numbers.

The AP called the race on election night for Ellmers, and because of that, Etheridge's concession will not mean that the GOP has picked up another House seat; Republicans remain at a net gain of 61 seats for the cycle.

There are now five outstanding House contests, and Republicans lead in three of them.

This post was updated at 3:40 p.m.

Sometimes, getting from Point A to Point B can include a few stops along the way. That's what happened to Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) on his way to the annual Republican Governors Association meeting earlier this week.

Pawlenty left Minnesota Tuesday night on a commercial flight bound for San Diego, but fog forced an unscheduled stop-over in Phoenix. The flight took off again a few hours later, but again, fog prevented a landing. That sent Pawlenty's plane to Ontario, an airport about 100 miles north of San Diego.

So the airline, which shall remain nameless, gave their passengers free tickets that would get them to San Diego early Wednesday morning -- on a Greyhound bus. Pawlenty hopped on board and arrived at the downtown San Diego bus terminal at 4:45 a.m.

Capping off the trip from hell: Pawlenty headed north, to initial RGA sessions, to moderate a panel just a few hours later.

Next time, he'll probably check the weather first.

Good Friday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Two House races that are still tight as a tick; Joe Miller's (R) Alaska defiance; Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) names who the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee saved and George W. Bush kills on Leno.

Miller's Defiance: Republican Joe Miller, facing very long odds in the Alaska Senate race, went to the courts on Thursday and asked a judge to prevent the certification of the election results.

The move comes after the ballots have been counted and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) leads by about 10,400 votes. The AP has called the race and Murkowski has declared victory. Murkowski and the Alaska GOP have also called on Miller to concede.

Miller's motion on Thursday is similar to an earlier injunction he sought that would require the Alaska Division of Elections to count only write-in ballots where Murkowski's name was written as it appeared on her declaration of candidacy. Among the 8,000 ballots that Miller is challenging are ones that list Murkowski's last name first, then her first name.

Precedent in Alaska states that a voter's intent determines whether a write-in ballot is counted for a particularly candidate. Miller's original legal action was denied by a federal judge.

Miller is also calling for a full hand recount of the ballots. http://bit.ly/c1fDDB

Tight As A Tick: There are six outstanding House races, but recounts in Rep. Bob Etheridege's (D-N.C.) and Solomon Ortiz's (D-Texas) races -- which should finish within days -- are not very likely to overturn rather large GOP leads.

California Reps. Jerry McNerney (D) and Jim Costa (D), meanwhile, hold growing leads in their districts, and look like strong candidates to hold their seats.

The real battle is for two New York seats held by Democratic incumbents. Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) has gained over 200 votes in absentee ballot counting, and now trails Republican Randy Altschuler by just 81 votes, according to numbers provided by Altschuler's camp. His campaign notes, however, that Altschuler performed "better than expected" in Democratic strongholds that were counted Thursday, and like their chances in Riverhead and Brookhaven, two GOP strongholds yet to be counted. Either way, this one's coming down to the wire.

Rep. Dan Maffei (D-N.Y.) won a much larger percentage of absentee ballots on Thursday than he did on Wednesday, and has picked up 521 votes on Republican Ann Marie Buerkle. Maffei now trails by just 303 votes, according to the Syracuse Post-Standard. With half of the votes left to count, he'll need to keep that pace, or even do better. That's because Wayne Co. -- where Buerkle took 63 percent of the vote on Election Day -- has yet to count any of its absentees. If she takes 63 percent of those absentees, and Maffei takes another 521 votes out of Onondaga County with the remaining absentees, the Republican would win by 135 votes.

Former President George W. Bush stops by the Tonight Show to discuss his book "Decision Points" and Donald Trump considers running for President in 2012. Conan O'Brien on Trump's possible White House bid: "A website has been launched called ShouldTrumpRun.com. Yeah don't worry, the American public has responded with their own website, No.com."

Jon Stewart goes after Fox News host Glenn Beck for using martinets during his show: "Worst children's party ever."

Today's Must See Moment -- Who's the better dancer: Bush or President Obama? Fast forward to 0:32 to find out. Then let us know what you think in our Late Night Poll.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

SAN DIEGO, Calif. -- Big Republican gains in the Midwest have erected a significant roadblock to Pres. Obama's re-election bid, newly-elected governors from the Big Ten states said at a press conference on Thursday. But as they strive for success, those new chief executives may wind up assisting Obama's re-election bid.

The Midwest and the Rust Belt provided the GOP with some of its most fertile territory on Election Day, fueled in large part because the region has been hit harder by the recession than other states. Republicans won Democratic-held governorships in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Republican governors hold control of all three levers of state government in those states plus Indiana, after Republicans won nearly 700 state legislative seats around the nation. And those are all states Obama won during the 2008 campaign.

That puts those Republicans in an ironic position. As they work toward fixing their region's economy, they may be inadvertently helping Obama -- something Ohio Gov.-elect John Kasich (R) acknowledged Thursday.

"If this economy stays moribund like it is today, Obama's not going to be re-elected. If he manages to turn the economy around, he's going to be very difficult to defeat." Kasich said. "The simple fact of the matter is, by us doing a good job running our states, we'll have a say."

Republicans contend the Midwest has been hit hardest by the economic recession, and by Obama's agenda. They cited a perceived attack on their region from both coasts.

SAN DIEGO, Calif. -- Two of the most prominent potential White House contenders will wait until late in the Spring to make public their decision whether or not to mount runs for president.

In interviews Thursday, both Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said they had difficult upcoming legislative sessions to consider before making their plans public. That, they said, would take their focus away from making a final decision until April or May.

"I don't feel any time pressure. I have a responsibility to the citizens of Mississippi. We have a legislative session with a very tough budget and I'm going to fulfill my responsibility," Barbour said. Asked whether he was considering the race, Barbour conceded: "I am. And my family, we have begun to talk about it, and some people whose opinions I respect. But I haven't asked anybody to sit down and kind of lay out what a budget would be and a timeline."

"I'm going to spend the next five to six months effecting another round of big reforms in our state. We've got a great opportunity to do some things we haven't gotten to do yet," added Daniels, who governs a state where Republicans just took over the state House. "Maybe in a spare moment along the line I'll think about it."

Barbour said there is no benefit to announcing a bid early. For one, the earlier a campaign begins, the earlier it begins spending money, he said. Plus, juggling two responsibilities at once means one is committing fully to neither.

"Once a person becomes a candidate or perceived as a candidate, if that person isn't dedicating the vast majority of his or her time to running, then it actually hurts them. So I'm not going to make a decision to run until I both decide that I should do it, and I'm prepared to pretty well go most if not full-time from that point forward," he said.

But waiting so long, Daniels acknowledged, leads to the risk that other candidates will be too far ahead for him to catch up.

"It may be a moot point by that time," Daniels said of his April or May timeline. But the delayed start to the contest, he said, "is great, by the way, just as a citizen. Much less of that stuff we have to listen to."

Barbour said his consideration includes whether he wants to spend the next decade, which for him amounts to the rest of his working career, involved in a single pursuit.

"This is all-consuming, somebody running for president of the United States. Running is the easy part. If you get it, you're talking about all-consuming. Do you want to give ten years of your life? Because you have to be prepared to do that," Barbour said. "You have to be prepared to run, win and serve two terms. Whether you end up succeeding or not, you have to be prepared to do that, and that's a very big commitment. You know, I'm 63 years old. So I'd spend the rest of my useful life essentially doing nothing but this. There's a lot to think about, because if you do it you owe the country to be in whole hog."

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, another possible presidential contender attending Republican Governors Association meetings this week, has also said he will wait to make a final decision until the new year. The late start is remarkably later than the 2008 cycle.

Barbour also told reporters Thursday he was happy he had chosen Pawlenty as vice chairman of the RGA. Pawlenty's tenure, Barbour said, would help if the Minnesotan decides to go forward with a White House bid.

"My belief was that he was thinking about running for president. To run for president, you've really got to learn to raise money. But the Minnesota campaign finance laws are such that the governor of Minnesota never really had much opportunity to raise money. And so I appointed him to this because I thought it would be good for him if he decided to run, but I also thought he had every incentive to go out and raise a bunch of money for us so he'd learn how, and we'd be the beneficiary of that. And I turned out to be right, he raised a bunch of money for us," Barbour said. "I was proud of myself."

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who will take over the RGA from Perry after winning election today, said that move should be an indication he will not be a candidate for the White House, a position he has reiterated for months.

The Republican Governors Association elected a diverse new leadership team on Thursday for the 2011 cycle that includes rising stars in the party like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) and South Carolina Gov-elect Nikki Haley (R).

The election took place at the RGA's annual meeting in San Diego.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), who was already named as the RGA's next chairman, will be joined on the new executive committee by Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R), who will serve as vice chairman. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) will be the RGA's Gala Chairman, Haley will serve as recruitment chair, New Mexico Gov.-elect Susana Martinez (R) will be an at-large member of the committee, as will Christie.

"I look forward to leading the RGA and our new class of Republican governors as America looks to the states for solutions to our nation's most pressing challenges in light of a federal government that has lost touch with our nation's values and priorities," said RGA Chairman Rick Perry.

There are three gubernatorial contests in 2011 and the GOP holds two of them. In Louisiana, Jindal will be running for re-election and current RGA Chair Haley Barbour's (R) tenure as Mississippi governor will come to an end in 2011 and Barbour cannot run for re-election because of the state's term limits. The RGA will also target Kentucky for a pickup opportunity.

Barbour will remain on the executive committee as policy chairman, a new position at the RGA.

SAN DIEGO, Calif. -- Count Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell among the Republicans who want to see former Sen. George Allen (R) take a shot at winning back the seat he lost in 2006.

In a wide-ranging interview with The Hotline, McDonnell said he believes Allen will run against Sen. Jim Webb (D) in 2012. McDonnell, who worked in Allen's gubernatorial administration in the 1990s, praised Allen as "a great ideas governor, a reform governor."

"He's got a great story to tell and he loves being involved in the political process, and he's got great charisma," McDonnell said. "He wants to serve again. So it would not surprise me at all to see him back in the hunt here."

McDonnell would not go into detail about talks between the two men. "I've had some conversations with George. I'll let him discuss what his plans are," he said.

Allen's actions speak louder than words: He has taken steps that indicate he's interested in a comeback bid, ramping up his media appearances and showing up at key party events. This weekend, he is hosting a hospitality suite at a major Virginia Republican Party gathering in McLean.

Up in the air is whether Allen will actually get his shot at a rematch. Webb has raised money at a lethargic pace, hinting he may not seek a second term. A Democratic polling firm released a survey on Wednesday that showed both Webb and former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine (D) leading Allen, albeit by small margins.

The most far-reaching impact of Republican Party's historic landslide in the 2010 election will be on redistricting.

As a result of its gains at the state level, Republicans now control the governorship and state legislatures in 15 states -- giving them near complete control of redrawing district lines before the next election. And the population growth in (primarily) GOP-friendly states means that many GOP strongholds, like South Carolina and Texas, will be gaining seats in the reapportionment.

But because of the significant Republican gains in the House, the GOP is facing the daunting challenge of redrawing lines to protect its sizable House majority in states while also trying to protect incumbents who would like to run in safer districts.

It puts GOP map-drawers in a catch-22 situation, especially in electoral battlegrounds like Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan. Republicans could draw the districts to maximize their number of pickup opportunities, but that would cause other members to run in less-friendly districts than they're accustomed to. Or they could focus on protecting their own members, but that will come at the cost of expanding opportunities to maximize Republican gains for the next decade.

Because Republicans control the redistricting process in so many states, there will be a strong temptation to overreach to create what, based on the 2010 election results, appear to be Republican-friendly districts -- a temptation the GOP has succumbed to in the past and that later backfired.

National Republicans are well aware of that temptation - and sound like they prefer the more conservative approach of protecting their own over expanding the map.

"We always admonish people not to overreach," said Tom Hofeller, who heads the Republican National Committee's redistricting effort. "You could spread your vote to the point where you have trouble holding seats."

Ohio and Pennsylvania present the most difficult challenges for the GOP. Both are projected to lose House seats after the 2010 reapportionment. Ohio is expected to lose two and Pennsylvania is expected to lose one.

The GOP was also particularly successful in picking up House seats in those two states this year, gaining five in each. The GOP will have a 13 to five advantage in Ohio's House delegation in the next Congress and a 12 to seven advantage in Pennsylvania's -- the largest advantages it has had in each state in more than a decade.

If Ohio loses two seats, it will present the toughest challenge for the GOP. Ohio is already a particularly gerrymandered state, and Republicans involved in the process privately acknowledge that simply maintaining their new 13 to five advantage will be a daunting task.

The reason is simple: When the opposing party holds a seat, the party in control simply looks to slice that area in order meet its goals for other, GOP-held districts. When the controlling party holds a seat, it has to take into account the preferences of the incumbent member.

SAN DIEGO, Calif. -- Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele can no longer count on the support of several prominent Republican governors as he searches for support in advance of a possible bid for another term.

Though elected officials had been wary of publicly stating their concerns with the national committee's finances, now that the midterms are out of the way they are taking their worries to the press.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) told reporters Wednesday he had "concerns" about the RNC's field operations after the 2010 midterms, citing a memo penned by former RNC political director Gentry Collins that laid out the committee's shortfalls.

"You have to have a high-functioning, effective ground game. The RNC has to be able to deliver that consistently, every cycle. And it appears, based on this letter, that didn't happen," Pawlenty said Wednesday. "I think there's going to be a very healthy discussion over the next few months about the RNC and the future direction of it."

Other governors, including Mississippi's Haley Barbour (R), have voiced public concern with Steele's chairmanship. Though they held back from calling for Steele's ouster in the run-up to the midterms, those calls have now begun.

Many pointed to the Republican Governors Association, meeting here this week at an annual policy conference, as the model the RNC should follow. The RGA was able to fully fund ground game operations in more than a dozen states, while the RNC simply didn't have the financial resources it needed to operate the committee's vaunted 72-hour program.

"For the time, Michael Steele did a good job," said Scott Walker (R), governor-elect of Wisconsin. "If I was him, I'd go out on top. Don't pull a Brett Favre and keep coming out of retirement."

"There needs to be a more active RNC in 2012," added Walker, a close ally of Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus, who is contemplating a bid against Steele.

Jon Stewart wants the media to leave former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin's (R) kids alone, until he sees Bristol Palin's abstinence PSA with Jersey Shore's "The Situation." Stewart fights the urge to make Bristol jokes: "Okay this is very close to entrapment. By the way if that gentleman does get you pregnant your uterus is officially classified as 'The Situation Womb.'"

CBS's David Letterman has the perfect birthday gift for Speaker-to-be John Boehner (R-Ohio): "Well you can't go wrong with bronzer."

Today's Must See Moment -- fast forward 1:16 to for Palin's abstinence PSA with "The Situation."

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

Democratic and Republican Members of Congress were more likely to blame Pres. Obama than Democratic congressional leaders for the party's midterm losses in the House of Representatives, although not by much, according to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Asked to pick between Obama and Democratic Congressional leaders, "who bears more responsibility for the Democrats losing the House," 30 percent of the 37 Democratic Members responding this week said Obama and 24 percent blamed their own leaders. Another 24 percent volunteered "both" and 22 percent skirted the question and volunteered "neither" or pointed the finger at the poor economy, the tea party, or the Supreme Court.

While a plurality of the Democratic Congressional Insiders blamed Obama and an equal number said it was a shared responsibility between the president and the party's congressional leaders, some of the Democratic criticism of the latter was particularly stinging. "The leadership was weak by not defending our accomplishments," said one Democratic Congressional Insider. "In addition, they did very little to stop individual members from running away from our passed legislation."

But another offered a different perspective on the party's House leaders, saying, "The Speaker's inner circle repeatedly made it clear they didn't mind losing the moderate Members of the caucus; they should've realized that the committee gavels would follow the moderates out the door."

A plurality, 38 percent, of Republican Congressional Insiders also felt the president bore more responsibility for his party's loss of the House. "His policies, his watch, his agenda and they lost," said one GOP Congressional Insider.

Good Thursday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Sarah Palin believes she can beat Pres. Obama; Mike Pencetiptoes around the 2012 question; Murkowski's Alaska miracle; Whitman pays a small settlement to her housekeeper; and some election post-mortems.

Palin's Confidence: Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is sounding more and more like a presidential contender. In an interview with ABC News' Barbara Waters Palin said she believes she can beat Pres. Obama...if she runs.

"I'm looking at the lay of the land now, and...trying to figure that out, if it's a good thing for the country, for the discourse, for my family, if it's a good thing," Palin said.

Walters responded: "If you ran for president, could you beat Barack Obama?"

"I believe so," Palin said.

The obvious interpretation of the remark is that Palin is inching closer to a run. Don't read too much into it. If Palin said she didn't believe she could beat Obama, it would be a much bigger deal and all but certainly mean she is not running.

The full interview will air on Dec. 9 on ABC. Clip: http://bit.ly/aQoEZI

Pence Tiptoes: Speaking of potential 2012 contenders, Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) sounded less like he was running but still left the door open on Wednesday night.

"I have no plans to run for president in 2012," Pence told Bret Baier on Fox News. When asked if he hasn't ruled it out, Pence responded: "It's what it is to be an American."

Take that to mean what you will. http://bit.ly/dy7Mtj

Reid Brings DADT To Floor: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) announced Wednesday night that he'll bring repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" to the Senate floor during the lame duck session of Congress.

The move, which will be included in the Defense Authorization bill, is a controversial one that directly challenges the Republican caucus and, in particular, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has led the opposition to the repeal.

"We need to repeal this discriminatory policy so that any American who wants to defend our country can do so," Reid said in a statement.

The announcement also comes just weeks before a report from the Pentagon is due out documenting how the repeal would take place. That report is expected to be released on Dec. 1.

Notably, a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday found that a majority -- 58 percent -- support repealing the "don't ask, don't tell" policy. That majority included 55 percent of respondents with a member of their family in the military. That's the first time military families have supported a repeal in a Quinnipiac poll.

Murkowski's Miracle: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) declared victory in Alaska late Wednesday, saying that "our miracle is here."

Murkowski's unlikely write-in campaign was declared the winner over Republican Joe Miller by the AP earlier on Wednesday. As the counting of write-in ballots concluded, Murkowski led Miller by more than 10,000 votes.

Miller, however, did not concede and his campaign called the voting system in Alaska "suspect." He did, however, give this response to the Anchorage Daily News when asked if there is a scenario in which he wins the race: "I don't think it's impossible."

The Alaska Republican Party also called on Miller to concede Wednesday. "We call on Joe Miller to respect the will of the voters and end his campaign in a dignified manner," Chairman Randy Ruedrich said in a statement. http://bit.ly/aDkPJf, http://bit.ly/a2HSxW

Don't Miss: The Hotline's Julie Sobel on why several moderate Republicans up for re-election -- and, in particular, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) -- are carefully watching how Murkowski pulled off her win. http://bit.ly/dtWg5k

With the AP calling the Alaska Senate race for Sen. Lisa Murkowski on Wednesday -- making her the second senator ever to run a successful write-in campaign for the Senate -- some other moderate Republican senators who face potential challenges from the right may be taking note of how she pulled it off.

While a write-in campaign is certainly a final resort, Murkowski's more general playbook of running without party support may be a good model to follow. And as she prepares to go back to D.C. newly independent and empowered -- already parting ways with the Republicans on the earmarks ban, telling Katie Couric that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) lacks leadership skills and intellectual curiosity, and saying Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) cost Republicans a Senate majority, all while retaining her ranking member status on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee -- that model may begin to look more appealing.

Sens. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas), Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), and Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) -- though not all are usually considered moderate -- all face the likelihood of a challenge from the right. Hutchinson could face a tough primary challenge from a Tea Party backed candidate after losing the gubernatorial primary badly to Gov. Rick Perry (R) this year. And there is already speculation on credible conservative challengers eyeing challenges to both Lugar and Hatch.

But Snowe may be the prime candidate to pull a Murkowski. One of the most moderate Republican senators, she has voted with Democrats from time to time, and, along with Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), gave Democrats the 60 votes they needed to pass Wall Street reform this summer. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted in September showed 63 percent of Maine Republicans would support a more conservative candidate with only 29 percent committed to Snowe. Though only the largely unknown businessman Scott D'Amboise (R) has announced he will take on Snowe thus far, there is plenty of time for a more formidable challenger to emerge. National Review reported last week that a as-yet-unnamed conservative, who comes out of the Tea Party movement, is preparing to challenge Snowe, and will announce his candidacy early next year.

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has officially prevailed in her uphill write-in re-election bid, with the AP calling her the victor against the official Republican nominee, Joe Miller.

The call comes as Alaska election officials completed a tally of write-in ballots that ended up giving her a lead of about 10,000 votes over Miller. That's a larger margin than the 8,153 ballots that were counted for Murkowski that Miller challenged because of misspelled names or illegibility. Still to be counted are a few hundred absentee and overseas ballots.

Miller has vowed to challenge the results. On Tuesday, Miller called for a full hand recount of all the ballots.

The Murkowski campaign is planning a media event Wednesday evening where Murkowski is expected to declare victory. With her win, Murkowski becomes the first Senate candidate to win election as a write-in candidate in Strom Thurmond in 1954.

Tuesday's Republican vote on imposing an earmark moratorium was a direct response to the rising influence of Tea Party conservatives in the Senate. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), the de facto leader of the Tea Party Senate caucus, said "the significance of this policy victory cannot be overstated" in an e-mail to supporters.

But a close look at Tuesday's voice vote to impose a non-binding moratorium on earmarks not only showcases the Tea Party's clout in the Senate this year, but its significant influence in GOP primary politics in 2012 and beyond.

Several Republican senators who are up for re-election in 2012 and who have previously sought millions in earmarks reversed course on Tuesday to vote for the measure -- a move for some that was undoubtedly intended to shore up their right flank in 2012. And even newly elected moderate Republican senators, like Illinois' Mark Kirk and New Hampshire's Kelly Ayotte, backed the measure, an indication that the politics of opposing earmarks is now viewed in the GOP as a clear political winner.

"Part of a politician's DNA is to talk out of both sides of their mouths," said Steve Ellis of Taxpayers for Common Sense, an organization that opposes earmarks. "So it's not surprising that they have put their fingers into the political wind and sensed it has changed directions on earmarks."

The clearest case in point: Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R). Hutchison, who has been quiet about whether she'll seek re-election in 2012, has been a notorious earmarker in the past and even voted against an earmark moratorium earlier this year. In 2010 alone, Hutchison requested nearly $167 million in earmarks either individually or with another member, according to Citizens Against Government Waste's earmark database. Hutchison made bringing the bacon back to Texas a a central part of her unsuccessful 2010 gubernatorial campaign.

But Hutchison now faces the political reality of being challenged (again) from the right in 2012 should she decide to run for re-election. As Hotline On Call reported earlier this week, several Republicans are already considering primary challenges to Hutchison, running against her establishment profile.

It looks like the Republican field against Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in 2012 is growing.

Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) is the latest to enter the fray. Mack took the fight to Nelson in a Orlando Sentinel op-ed on Wednesday -- a clear sign that he is angling for a Senate run.

Mack called on Nelson to support extending the Bush tax cuts.

"Admitting he was wrong to oppose the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 would be a first step for U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson to signal he 'got the message' in the recent citizen revolt," Mack wrote, referring to the 2010 election results in which Republicans made large gains in Florida. "Nelson has an opportunity to make amends and lead the charge for Senate Democrats to extend the Bush-era tax cuts in the lame-duck session of Congress."

Mack hasn't hidden his Senate aspirations but will likely face a contested GOP primary in 2012 if he runs. Outgoing appointed Sen. George LeMieux (R) has already said he is mulling a challenge to Nelson.

Conservative activist Grover Norquist will quiz candidates running for Republican National Committee chairman at a debate to be held just two weeks before elections, he told Hotline On Call Wednesday.

Norquist, who runs Americans for Tax Reform, will moderate the Jan. 3 debate at the National Press Club. It's an effort, he says, to take the race for chairman beyond the 168 members of the national committee and to bolster transparency.

"Only 168 people get to vote, but this is going to affect everybody who wants limited government, and everybody who wants lower taxes, and everybody who wants the Reagan coalition to do well," he said. "This is something that affects whatever part of the movement you're in."

The group held a similar debate in 2009, with the goal of opening what is a historically closed process of electing a new RNC chairman to the activist class. The 2009 debate, which streamed live on C-SPAN and the internet, drew tens of thousands of viewers.

ATR is soliciting questions from conservative bloggers and Tea Party organizations; last year, bloggers submitted nearly 1,000 questions. And Norquist pointed to several important questions about the dynamics of the race, especially about who gets involved.

"Whether it's a challenge to [RNC chairman Michael] Steele, or Steele doesn't run, the campaign after him is going to be interesting. Do the would-be presidential candidates put a finger on the scale? Do they leave it to the committee to decide?"

But the most important question, which candidates will actually run, remains up in the air. So far, only Michigan RNC member Saul Anuzis and former North Dakota party chairman Gary Emineth have said they will run. Anuzis has already committed to attending the debate, Norquist said.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Illinois Rep. Melissa Bean (D) concedes, bringing the GOP's gains in the House to 61 seats; the White House and Republican congressional leaders at loggerheads over scheduling; mutiny at the Republican National Committee; the next Tea Party-establishment struggle in Kentucky; a Bloomberg-Scarborough 2012 trial balloon and House members who have the most to lose in redistricting.

Up To 61: Illinois Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean conceded to Republican Joe Walsh Tuesday night, bringing the number of Republican gains in the House to 61 seats.

Bean has trailed Walsh by more than 300 votes for most of the last two weeks and has been unable to close the gap as counties were re-canvassed. Bean had made up some ground when absentee and provisional ballots in the very Democratic Cook County were counted. Lake County, a suburban Chicago area that tilts Republican, finished its count on Tuesday and made it virtually impossible for Bean to catch up to Walsh.

With Bean's race coming to a close, there are still six House races that are still ongoing or are heading toward recount. The GOP leads in four of them -- New York's 1st and 25th District, Texas' 27th District and North Carolina's 2nd District.

Walsh's victory means that Republicans now hold 11 of 19 seats in Illinois' House delegation.

Bean is scheduled to hold a formal press conference Wednesday morning in Illinois.

Scheduling Conflict: The highly anticipated meeting between Pres. Obama and congressional leaders on Thursday has been postponed -- and both Republicans and the White House are pointing fingers at each other. The White House released a statement from Press Secretary Robert Gibbs saying that the meeting was moved to Nov. 30 "at the request of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) due to scheduling conflicts in organizing their caucuses."

Republicans are singing a different tune. NBC reported this morning that McConnell's office has said the White House suggested the new date but added that there are no hard feelings. Consider this a sign of loggerheads to come...http://bit.ly/cbCXwf

Murkowski Lead Grows: Stick a fork in Republican Joe Miller. Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R-Alaska) campaign announced late Monday that the senator has taken a 10,400-vote lead over Miller with the conclusion of the hand count of write-in ballots. Miller's team has challenged 8,153 ballots counted for Murkowski, but at this point it looks like even with those and the 300 to 500 overseas ballots yet to be counted it will be nearly impossible for Miller to close the gap.

That isn't stopping Miller. On Tuesday, his camp called for a full hand recount of the ballots. http://bit.ly/c4Xp9s

Mutiny At The RNC? The battle lines have been drawn at the Republican National Committee, as political director Gentry Collins resigned on Tuesday and sent a scathing letter to Chairman Michael Steele. From Cameron Joseph and Reid Wilson's write up: "In a five-page letter to Steele and members of the RNC's executive committee, Collins said the party's lackluster fundraising effort contributed just a fraction of the amount of money to state parties that it had in previous cycles. That financial downturn, Collins said, prevented Republicans from capitalizing on an historic wave election and allowed Democrats to hold on in key races...Collins' public rebuke of Steele's tenure is the latest indication that there are serious divisions within the RNC and that Steele, who is seeking a second term, will face a tough battle to hang on to the job."

Rep. Charles Rangel's (D-N.Y.) ethics trial is the main target for late night jokes, but Conan O'Brien gets in a few more laughs at the expense of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (R). O'Brien, on the Oxford Dictionary declaring Palin's word 'refudiate' the 2010 Word of The Year: "Palin was honored, said she'll continue to do her best to dismangle the English language."

Jimmy Kimmel is surprised to find out who got a happy birthday tweet from Arizona Senator John McCain.

Today Must See Moment -- fast forward to 1:17 for Jon Stewart's impression of Rangel.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

Republican National Committee political director Gentry Collins offered an abrupt resignation Tuesday, coupled with a stinging rebuke of Chairman Michael Steele and the committee's fundraising efforts in the midterm elections.

In a five-page letter to Steele and members of the RNC's executive committee, Collins said the party's lackluster fundraising effort contributed just a fraction of the amount of money to state parties that it had in previous cycles. That financial downturn, Collins said, prevented Republicans from capitalizing on an historic wave election and allowed Democrats to hold on in key races.

Collins' public rebuke of Steele's tenure is the latest indication that there are serious divisions within the RNC and that Steele, who is seeking a second term, will face a tough battle to hang on to the job.

Steele hired Collins, a top Republican operative who worked for former Gov. Mitt Romney in the 2008 cycle, in an effort to reassure donors and committee members that he was building an effective operation with seasoned and competent people in key roles. Collins is the latest staffer to leave disgruntled, but the first to have done so in such a public manner.

"Sadly, if left on its current path, the RNC will not be a productive force in the 2012 campaign," wrote Collins. "During the 2010 cycle, the RNC allowed its major donor base to wither."

Collins said the fundraising operation was ineffective, handing out a relative pittance to state parties and candidates while spending more money to raise less. Big donors who gave more than $1,000 contributed just 10.5 percent of the committee's fundraising, an incredible drop-off from recent years.

Meanwhile, Collins revealed the RNC has drawn down $15 million it had secured in lines of credit, and that unpaid bills owed by the committee are "likely to add millions to that debt." The money went to expenses other than the political department, which for the first time since the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform bill was passed did not fund an independent expenditure program.

During a cycle that featured many compelling races, the title of "lieutenant governor" made a notable impact in a handful of contests. In some cases, holding that office was detrimental. Witness New Mexico Lieutenant Gov. Diane Denish's (D) campaign for governor. Denish was never able to effectively distance herself from the unpopular Gov. Bill Richardson (D), and Gov.-elect Susana Martinez (R) used that connection to propel herself to victory.

Elsewhere, voters definitively rejected the idea of a lieutenant governor in Arizona, preferring the current system in which the Secretary of State is second in the line of succession.

Of the six sitting lieutenant governors who were nominated by their parties to run in Senate or in a gubernatorial races this year, only South Dakota Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) emerged victorious as the other five -- Hawaii's Duke Aiona (R), Denish, Oklahoma's Jari Askins (D), Vermont's Brian Dubie (R) and Ohio's Lee Fisher (D) -- all lost.

While lieutenant governors at the top of the ticket may not have had much success, candidates running for lieutenant governor provided a boost for candidates in several races. Some helped gubernatorial nominees shore up on perceived weaknesses simply by appearing on the ticket, while others were active forces out on the campaign trail.

Looking forward, here are five incoming lieutenant governors to watch. Some made an impact for the candidate at the topic of the ticket, while others have the potential to make an impact in their new post. All may run for office in the future and are worthy of keeping an eye on:

California: Lt. Gov.-elect Gavin Newsom (D)

Newsom, who launched a gubernatorial bid of his own this cycle before dropping out late in 2009 because of family obligations and poor polling numbers later re-emerged in a bid for lieutenant governor, which he ultimately won.

Newsom is only 43 and has already received national attention. He was also endorsed by Bill Clinton during his gubernatorial bid. Moreover, the lieutenant governor position in California has recently been something of a springboard toward a gubernatorial campaign, as the three lieutenant governors prior to outgoing Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado (R) have all run for governor.

North Dakota: Former U.S. Attorney and Lt. Gov.-elect Drew Wrigley (R)

Sen.-elect John Hoeven's (R) victory in the Senate race meant that Lt. Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) would be taking over and would have to appoint a lieutenant governor of his own. He named Wrigley as his pick, who has himself expressed an interest in one day running for governor.

Coming off Republican Pat Toomey's Senate win, Pennsylvania Republicans are fired up and already discussing how they can unseat first term Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in 2012.

The problem for Republicans, though, is the dearth of potential top tier challengers to run against Casey. In picking up a whopping five seats in the House this year, the Pennsylvania GOP is dealing with the reality that it cleared its bench in 2010. It is unlikely that a freshman representative turns around and launches a Senate campaign.

"The 'A Team' all got elected two weeks ago," said Pennsylvania Republican strategist Charlie Gerow. "There are still some quality candidates out there, but the bench certainly isn't as deep as it was."

Among those likely to top the list are veteran Reps. Jim Gerlach (R) and Charlie Dent (R).

Gerlach has eyed statewide office in the past, having launched a gubernatorial campaign last year. Republicans note that Gerlach has always seemed to want to get out of Washington, though, so a run for the Senate might not be what he is looking for. Gerlach, like Dent, could be attracted to the six-year terms of the Senate since they currently face difficult re-election bids every two years.

Dent, who just won re-election to his fifth term in the House, would also be a top contender. The problem for Dent is geographical. He is from Allentown, which is near Toomey's home and Pennsylvanians typically don't go for two senators from the same part of the state.

After those two, the next tier of contenders is led by state Sen. Jake Corman (R). Corman is considered a rising star in the party. One GOP strategist said he'd be a candidate "straight from central casting" because he is charismatic and has shown he can raise money in buckets. He is the chairman of the state Senate Appropriations Committee and sources in Pennsylvania say he has already started making calls about the Senate race.

Like Dent, Corman has a geographical disadvantage. Corman is from Centre County -- which is not one of the state's population hubs.

Another Republican who might look at the race is radio talk show host Glen Meakem, who has close ties to the Tea Party. But Meaken has considered other races in the past and failed to pull the trigger.

Lack of top-tier names aside, Pennsylvania Republicans believe Casey will be vulnerable. Republicans are quick to point out that it will be easy to tie Casey to Pres. Obama, who has seen his numbers plummet in Pennsylvania.

And despite the continued Democratic registration advantage, the energy among Pennsylvania Republicans is the highest it has been in years. Republicans effectively turned out their base and disaffected independents and if that could be replicated in 2012, it would bode well for their chance against Casey.

Republicans say that Casey has been able to avoid tough races in the past in large part because his name -- and that of his father, former Gov. Bob Casey -- have scared off potential challengers and allowed Casey to skate to easy victories. Republicans are quick to point out that Casey actually lost his most hotly contested race when Gov. Ed Rendell beat him in the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary. His support of the health care bill, which has been viewed unfavorably in the state and played a role in several members' losses, could hurt his brand as a culturally-conservative Democrat.

The Casey camp is already looking ahead to 2012. They point out that in 2006 Casey performed better in the southwest and northeast parts of the state than Rep. Joe Sestak did this year. They also expect that the presidential race will boost turnout in Democratic areas like Philadelphia.

"Sen. Casey takes every race seriously," said Larry Smar, a spokesman for Casey. "He will run a strong campaign that highlights his record of putting Pennsylvanians first."

Fox News is expected to announce later this afternoon that "Fox News Sunday" anchor Chris Wallace has signed a new contract with the network to continue anchoring the Sunday program.

Wallace took over as anchor of "Fox News Sunday" in late 2003 after Tony Snow left.

With Wallace as anchor "Fox News Sunday" has continued to rank in the top three in the DC market, coming in at number two last Sunday.

"I am delighted to know where I'm going to be spending my Sunday mornings for the next few years -- and to be part of an outstanding FOX News team covering the changing balance of power in Washington, the 2012 Presidential election, and beyond," Wallace said in a statement.

Before joining Fox News, Wallace was at ABC News for 14 years as a senior correspondent for "Primetime Thursday" and as a substitute anchor for "Nightline."

This post was updated at 4:02 p.m. with an comment from Wallace.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee outraised its Republican counterpart in October, an advantage that aided Democrats' effort to retain their Senate majority this year.

The DSCC raised a stunning $17.4 million in October while the National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $14.2 million, a record for the GOP committee.

"We were able to beat back Republicans this year because of the strong support from Democrats around the country," said DSCC Executive Director J.B. Poersch. "Senate Democrats exceeded expectations this year because we had better candidates with the resources they needed running aggressive campaigns."

Throughout the cycle, both committees have benefitted from large transfers. The DSCC in particular, has benefitted from fundraisers featuring Pres. Obama and transfers from the Democratic National Committee.

Nevertheless, the October reports show the DSCC's fundraising prowess as a big part of their ability to save the majority which appeared to be in play at several points throughout the cycle. The DSCC outraised the NRSC by $15 million over the course of the cycle.

In particular, the DSCC fundraising allowed it to spend millions in Nevada, Colorado and Washington defending Sens. Harry Reid (D), Michael Bennet (D) and Patty Murray (D) -- three incumbents that ultimately became their firewall.

Coming off a cycle where Republicans picked up seven seats in the Senate, Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) was re-elected unanimously on Tuesday to chair the National Republican Senatorial Committee through 2012.

Cornyn's re-election provides the NRSC some continuity in 2012 when it faces a playing field with plenty of pick up opportunities. The GOP only has to defend 10 seats in 2012, while 21 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats are up for re-election.

"I appreciate the strong support from all of my Republican colleagues, and especially our 13 new Republican senators, as we continue our campaign to win back a Senate Republican majority in 2012," Cornyn said in a statement.

While Cornyn's performance as NRSC chair has been praised in Republican circles since the election, it wasn't without speed bumps. By wading into contested primaries early in the cycle, the NRSC was handed defeats when insurgent challengers like Christine O'Donnell (Del.), Ken Buck (Colo.) and Sharron Angle (Nev.) defeated NRSC-backed contenders in part by using the NRSC's endorsement against them. The GOP went on to lose those three seats, costing them a chance at a Senate majority.

Cornyn alluded to those primaries in his statement.

"The key now is to build on that success, while applying lessons learned from the 2010 campaign," Cornyn said. "I believe Republicans are strongest when we stick together, and I continue to adhere to the words of William F. Buckley, who famously said: 'I am for the most conservative candidate that can get elected.' But I recognize that Republican primary voters choose our nominees, and I am committed to listening to the message voters sent this past year."

With the Republican playing field as large as it is in 2012, Cornyn is likely to face questions about endorsements very early in the cycle as Republicans line up to challenge the likes of Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), James Webb (D-Va.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.), among others.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. One the radar today: Lisa Murkowski (R) officially takes the lead in Alaska and has some choice words for Sarah Palin (R); Minnesota sets the schedule for another recount; the Congressional Black Caucus withholds its endorsement from Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.); Sen. Richard Lugar makes his re-election bid official, but faces GOP opposition.

Murkowski Moves Into Lead: As expected, the number of write-in ballots officially counted for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) surpassed Republican Joe Miller's total late Monday. The Murkowski camp stopped just short of claiming victory over Miller even though it now leads by 1,706 votes -- 92,162 to 90,458 and expects that lead to grow.

"Joe will receive very few more votes, with the exception of a couple hundred overseas ballots to come in," Murkowski campaign manager Kevin Sweeney said. "However, it looks like Lisa will be credited with about 10,000 more write-in votes once they have been reviewed in Juneau. If the unchallenged rate proceeds as it has for the past five days, Lisa stands to win the race, even accounting for Joe Miller's challenges."

Sweeney added that the Murkowski camp expects Miller to concede the race soon as the number of ballots challenged by Miller's team may not be able to make up the difference. The counting of the write-in ballots is slated to end Wednesday.

Murkowski taking the lead means that the long, strange trip that has been the Alaska Senate race is coming to a close. Murkowski looks all but certain to become the first senator since Strom Thurmond in 1954 to win a write-in campaign. It's also a rebuke to former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who endorsed and actively campaigned for Miller. http://bit.ly/dh0UAV

Fueling the Murkowski-Palin Feud: Speaking of Palin, Murkowski also made news late Monday by taking numerous jabs at the former Alaska governor in an interview with CBS News' Katie Couric. Murkowski said Palin lacks the "intellectual curiosity" and "leadership qualities" to make effective policy.

"You know, she was my governor for two years, for just about two years there, and I don't think that she enjoyed governing," Murkowski said. "I don't think she liked to get down into the policy."

In the interview with Couric, Murkowski also dished out a few backhanded compliments to Palin.

"In fairness, she is not really that keyed into the state anymore. She is looking, obviously, at a bigger pond, and so we don't see her up north as much," Murkowski said.

Check out the full interview here: http://bit.ly/axzZzb

CBC Doesn't Back Pelosi: Just when it looked like the drama in the House Democratic leadership elections was dying down, the Congressional Black Caucus threw another wrench in the system -- declining Monday to endorse Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for Minority Leader. After a lengthy meeting, CBC Chair Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) told reporters that the approximately 40-member group is only endorsing Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) for the newly created assistant leader position.

At the root of the issue appears to be how many responsibilities -- and clout -- the assistant leader position will have.

"We fully support our current whip, Mr. Clyburn, for the number three position and we are currently reserving judgment on the entire package until we see what the actual portfolio entails, in terms of responsibilities," Lee said. http://bit.ly/a5Ccej

Looks like Wednesday's House leadership elections could be a highly contentious affair.

Jimmy Kimmel pulls together his favorite moments from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's new reality show and Jon Stewart remembers when Bill Clinton was a bi-partisan dream: "But I guess for Republicans, Bill Clinton is like a fine wine. The more you drink the harder it is to remember, 'Oh I (bleep) hate wine'."

Of Palin, whose TLC show set a record premiere audience for the network, Kimmel said: "It's 'Ice Road Soccer Mom.'''

Today's Must See Moment -- fast forward to 1:00 where George W. Bush drinks too much in David Letterman's "George W. Bush Press Tour Recap."

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Election Day was nearly two weeks ago, but nine races are still up in the air. Here is a breakdown of what's left.

Senate

Alaska: Looks like the writing is on the wall for Republican Joe Miller. Sen. Lisa Murkowski is maintaining 89 percent of the write-in votes unchallenged by the Miller camp, which should be enough to get her the victory.

Murkowski's camp had thought that the number of write-in ballots counted for Murkowski would have outnumbered Miller's total on Sunday, but the Alaska Division of Elections only counted fewer than 5,000 ballots. As of Monday morning, Miller has 87,517 ballots to Murkowski's 78,697 uncontested write-in ballots.

Another eight percent of the write-in ballots, or 7,059 votes, were counted for Murkowski but have been challenged by Miller.

More than 98,500 write-in ballots have been cast and there are around 8,700 left to be counted this week. Murkowski could officially take the lead before counting is completely on Monday.

The write-in ballot hand count is expected to run through Wednesday.

Another good sign for Murkowski? Lawyers from both campaigns are leaving the state.

Governor

Minnesota: The Minnesota gubernatorial race appears to be in a holding pattern. Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) leads state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) by 8,755 votes after canvassing board results - a tally that is virtually unchanged from early last week. The race is still heading for a recount, but it looks difficult for Emmer to overtake Dayton without an allegation of widespread voter fraud.

House

Democrat Leading

California 11: Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) declared victory last week, but attorney David Harmer (R) is still holding out hope that McNerney's 1,700-vote edge can be wiped out. But with just 8,500 provisional ballots (most of which likely won't be valid) to be counted in the Harmer's San Joaquin County base, it appears that Harmer's running out of hope.

California 20: Farmer Andy Vidak (D) actually picked up a handful of votes when Rep. Jim Costa's (D) base of Fresno County reported a new batch of numbers late last week. But with nearly 18,000 ballots left to count in Costa-friendly counties, Vidak shouldn't count on that trend continuing.

Democrat Trailing

Illinois 8: Businessman Joe Walsh (R) holds a slim 347-vote edge over Rep. Melissa Bean (D), but with just 200 uncounted ballots from Bean's stronghold of Cook County -- and hundreds left to count from GOP-leaning Lake and McHenry counties -- Bean's chances appear slim.

In less than two months, 27 sitting governors will leave their jobs. Two, North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven (R) and West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D), will move to D.C. to become senators. But the other 25 will have plenty of free time to examine new job opportunities.

And, among that 25 there are a few that we haven't seen the last of, and another few that we hope will stick around.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), of course, will be on the national scene for at least two more years, as he has set the gears in motion for a 2012 presidential run. Pawlenty, who has been heading south into Iowa with increasing frequency, will probably take up virtual residency in the state once his term is completed. But the Minnesota gubernatorial recount may briefly pause Pawlenty's plans -- he's vowed to stay in office until a winner is declared.

Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle (R) has vowed to take a six-month rest after she leaves office. But once she completes that sojourn, she's promised to take a look at running against Sen. Daniel Akaka (D). Getting Lingle into the 2012 Senate race will be a top priority for National Republican Senatorial Committee strategists, and we're sure NRSC chair John Cornyn (R-Texas) will be on a flight to Hawaii before 2011 is up.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) has made no secret that he wants to move back to D.C. after he exits the governor's mansion. But failed Obama cabinet bids and scandals emanating from his tenure as governor will make getting a federal appointment difficult. Richardson's more likely to move into the private sector, either as a lobbyist or a media figure. Richardson gives good quote, so it wouldn't be hard to imagine him commentating on MSNBC on a weekly basis.

But the governor most likely to become a TV commentator is Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D). It wouldn't be surprising if cable executives already have a contract written up for Rendell, who can stir up a good controversy with one five-minute segment. Mischief-makers once floated Rendell as a potential Obama chief of staff, but no love is lost between the outspoken Rendell and the White House, so that's out of the realm of possibility. Rendell, an excellent fundraiser, might make a good Democratic National Committee chair (again), but that post is dependent on the wishes of the White House, who will look for a closer ally.

One of the biggest Tea Party versus establishment showdowns of 2012 may already be shaping up in Texas, as several contenders are readying campaigns to challenge Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) next year.

Hutchison has given few public signals whether she will be seeking re-election. She was anticipated to vacate the seat after her gubernatorial bid this year. But, since she lost the Republican primary to Gov. Rick Perry (R), she has not said whether she will run in 2012.

Courtney Sanders, a spokeswoman for Hutchison said the senator is focused on the rest of her term. "Nothing is being considered right now," she said. "The senator is focused on this Congress."

Hutchison, who was first elected statewide in 1990 as state Treasurer, has one of the strongest statewide profiles in Texas. But her brand of centrist Republicanism -- she supports abortion rights and voted for TARP -- and time in Washington -- she would be seeking a fourth term in 2012 -- have come under fire from Tea Party conservatives.

That means that Hutchison will likely face a challenge from the right in the 2012 GOP primary and will likely have to fend off the same attacks lines that Perry used against her during the primary this year.

"Everyone here is expecting a contested primary," said University of Texas political scientist Jim Henson. "Clearly, people feel that Hutchison was exposed during the [gubernatorial] primary. You would expect that anyone running against her in 2012 would look at the success that Perry had and use the same tactics."

Already two Republicans have started campaigning for the seat. Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams already has his campaign in motion. Williams has a statewide profile and has done a lot of fundraising work for the party in recent years. He is very well-connected within the party.

The second is state Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones. Jones is a former state representative from San Antonio who was appointed to the Railroad Commission by Perry. Jones, like Williams, almost certainly would run to Hutchison's right but isn't considered a top-tier contender.

Party sources also put Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R) in the top tier with Williams. Dewhurst is a wealthy businessman with the ability to self fund and just cruised to victory on Nov. 2 with more than 60 percent of the vote. Dewhurst is not quite as far to the right as Jones, but would still represent a conservative challenge to Hutchison. Dewhurst has not yet begun a campaign.

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: The newly-elected members of Congress descend on Capitol Hill as the lame-duck session kicks off; Democrats face two distractions -- Heath Shuler's (D-N.C.) half-hearted challenged to Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Charlie Rangel's (D-N.Y.) ethics trial; D Day for Joe Miller (R) in Alaska; Mark McKinnon, in his ninja pajamas, sitting out 2012 so far; the newest senators and Bill Clinton shoots a cameo for "The Hangover 2."

Welcome To Washington: Lots of action on Capitol Hill on Monday as newly-elected members arrive for their orientation and Congress returns for a lame duck session. Congress will undoubtedly focus on whether a compromise can be reached on extending the Bush era tax cuts, while the new freshman will focus on fitting in.

Already, some are giving some, well, interesting quotes to the press. Here's Rep.-elect Allen West (R-Fla.) to CNN on Democrats and reducing spending: "They have to follow through, or else they'll be thrown out on the ash heap...I don't care if we have to burn the midnight oil on both ends of the candle, we have got to look at the redundancy and duplicitous programs and agencies here in Washington D.C., so that we can cut this growth and cut this spending." http://bit.ly/9Lzt9O

Speaker-to-be John Boehner (R-Ohio) welcomed the newly-elected Republicans at a dinner on Sunday. In remarks, Boehner encouraged humility from his caucus.

"If you remember one thing from my talk tonight, I hope it's just one word: humility," Boehner said. "The American people are sick and tired of the 'Washington knows best' mentality. All the power in this town is on loan from the people." http://nyti.ms/auK16s

Shuler's, Um, Moment? The news over the weekend that Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) will be "assistant leader" in the next Congress -- a new third position in the leadership -- means all of the serious leadership fights appeared to draw to a close. Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), however, rather reluctantly said on Sunday that he will go forward with a challenge to Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) if no one else steps forward.

"I've said all along I'm hoping that Nancy Pelosi will step aside and will allow the leaders that are available, who are ready to go, but because of her being at the very top right now, no one's willing to throw their hat in the ring," Shuler said on CNN. "And if it comes down to this coming week and she doesn't step aside, then I will challenge her. "

That's not exactly an emphatic declaration...
The Hotline's Whip Count puts the total number of Democrats who have said they'll oppose Pelosi at 18 so far: http://bit.ly/cpJZGA

Another Distraction For Democrats: If the potential Wednesday floor vote on Minority Leader wasn't enough of a distraction for Democrats this week, Rep. Charlie Rangel's (D-N.Y.) ethics trial is set to begin Monday. For those of you keeping tabs at home, the last House Ethics Committee trial was held in 2002 for Rep. Jim Traficant (D-Ohio). Multiple reports and conversations with Hill sources suggest the trial, which will focus on Rangel's failure to disclose assets to the IRS and use of his office to raise money for a college scholarship program, is likely to take a turn for the bizarre. For one, Rangel apparently will not have lawyers to represent him. http://bit.ly/ad19OM

D Day For Miller: Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R-Alaska) campaign is billing Monday as the make-or-break day for attorney Joe Miller. That's because Murkowski maintained her lead over the weekend and the Alaska Division of Elections will count the approximately 8,600 remaining absentee ballots on Monday.

Pres. Obama takes heat for coming home from Asia without a trade agreement and David Letterman tunes in for "Sarah Palin's Alaska": "But I think the name of the Sarah Palin show is 'Bleep My Ex-Governor Says'."

Today's Don't Miss Moment: 0:26 George W. Bush and Kanye West Make Up On SNL's Weekend Update.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- The Alaska Senate race could be over soon. While attorney Joe Miller (R) has filed a lawsuit over the issue of "voter intent" on the write-in ballots, there's a scenario in which those challenged ballots won't even matter. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) needs 88 percent of the write-ins to maintain her lead over Miller. She is currently holding strong, as 89 percent of the write-ins so far have gone for her and have been unchallenged. Of course, if this changes, the outcome will have to go to court.

-- Congressional Republicans and Democrats' responses to the debt commission's blueprint illustrate the difference in messaging strategies in each camp. Democrats come out swinging -- led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Democratic members rushed to get on record, contradicting and complicating Pres. Obama's message of wait-and-see. On the other hand, Speaker-to-be John Boehner (R-Ohio) declined to comment, and clearly told other Republicans to keep quiet as well. It was a rare Republican who went on record this week against the plan, even though there's dissent, illustrating Boehner's control over his caucus and the tight strategy that boosted the party to victory last week.

-- Yes, it's early in the cycle, but here's one sign that Democrats will have a tough time netting Senate seats in 2012: Early Democratic hopes seem restricted to just two states -- Massachusetts and Nevada. Republicans, meanwhile, have already started started talking about six or seven prime Senate targets for the coming cycle.

-- Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle (R) revealed this week that she will wait six months before deciding whether she will challenge longtime Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) in 2012.

Lingle would start the race as an underdog, but would be the most formidable Republican to run for the seat in recent memory. As we saw during this cycle, national Republicans were not shy about pouring resources into the gubernatorial race, and should Lingle prove to be a competitive candidate, she would likely also be able to count on help from national Republicans.

-- It's a good thing to be an "ex," apparently. Several Democrats who were defeated last week hinted this week that they may be up for a rematch in 2012, including outgoing Reps. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Dina Titus (D-Nev.) and Democratic contender Ann McLane Kuster (N.H.), who was defeated by another rerun, former Rep. Charlie Bass (R-N.H.). Even Rep. Brian Baird (D-Wash.), who is retiring, suggested he may run in a potentially open race or Washington's 1st District in 2012. And why not? On Nov. 2, 13 Republican reruns were elected to seats they previously failed to win.

The deficit commission recommendations to cut the deficit and the upcoming debate on whether to extend the Bush tax cuts in the lame-duck session of Congress will dominate the weekend shows. "This Week" will feature Senate Budget Committee Chair Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) while "Face the Nation" hosts Sen.-elect Rand Paul (R-Ky.). Both "Meet the Press" and "Fox News Sunday" host senior White House adviser David Axelrod, in his first Sunday appearance since the midterm elections.

CNN's Candy Crowley will sit down with Pres. George W. Bush to discuss his new book, "Decision Points." Bush's brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush will also be on the show to talk about their childhood, family and the current political landscape. Catch the interview on Sun. at 8 p.m. ET.

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Senior White House adviser David Axelrod, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.) and Vanity Fair's Bethany McLean.
Face the Nation hosts Sen.-elect Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
This Week hosts Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), Honeywell CEO David Cote, former Secretary of State Madeline Albright and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).
Fox News Sunday hosts Senior White House adviser David Axelrod, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and actor Jeff Bridges.
State of the Union Substituting anchor Joe Johns hosts National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair John Cornyn (R-Texas), Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Reps. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), former White House Communications Director Anita Dunn and former Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.).

Other Weekend Shows

Political Capital features Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.) (Bloomberg, Fri., 7 p.m.).
Washington Week features the New York Times' Jackie Calmes, the Wall Street Journal's Naftali Bendavid, NPR's Tom Gjelten and ABC's Martha Raddatz (PBS, Fri., 8 p.m.).

The Republican wins in Florida that grabbed the most headlines last week were the Senate race -- where Republican rising star Marco Rubio (R) trounced independent Gov. Charlie Crist -- and the governor's race -- where Republican businessman Rick Scott (R) defeated Democrat Alex Sink.

But a closer look at the results shows that the GOP made its biggest strides in the House, where it picked up the maximum number of districts that are remotely hospitable to Republicans. And in so doing, the Florida GOP elected the most diverse Republican congressional delegation in the country and set the stage for a highly competitive 2012.

Republicans will hold a 19 to six advantage over Democrats in the Sunshine State's House delegation in the 112th Congress. The six remaining Democrats represent districts that are a deep shade of blue. Entering this year, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index gave a double-digit Democratic advantage in each district -- the 3rd, 11th, 17th, 19th, 20th, and 23rd.

That means Democrats enter 2012 with little left to lose. Without the need to play defense, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will have the advantage of devoting their resources to offense in 2012.

Redistricting may provide the main battleground in 2012. Florida is projected to gain two seats in the House, increasing its Electoral College total to 29. Though Scott recaptured the governor's mansion for the GOP, a newly-passed, voter-approved redistricting law may neutralize any GOP advantages in gerrymandering. That, of course, assumes the law stands a court challenge filed by Reps. Corrine Brown (D) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R).

Florida's new Republican congressional delegation will also be its most diverse in the nation -- though it will still be more homogeneous than many of the Democrats'.

Florida voters elected seven freshmen GOP House members as well Rubio. The former state House Speaker gives the GOP a Latino member of the Senate more than a year after former Sen. Mel Martinez (R), a native of Cuba, resigned and ceded control to Crist's hand-picked placeholder, Sen. George LeMieux (R).

Joining Rubio in Florida's 2010 Class will be Rep.-elect David Rivera (R), who shares Rubio's Cuban heritage. The seat was previously held by Diaz-Balart, who will now represent the neighboring 21st District after his brother, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R), retired. Rivera, Diaz-Balart and veteran Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) will serve as the GOP's three Hispanic House members in the 112th Congress.

If you thought more political ads than ever populated your television viewing in October, it wasn't your imagination. According to Nielsen data, voters were treated to 1.48 million political ads this October, up from 1.41 million in October of 2008.

Viewers in some states saw more political spots than others. If you live in the Cleveland, Ohio, media market, you saw more ads than anyone else in America. In October, 29,689 political spots ran in the Cleveland market, accounting for 23.44 percent of all ads run last month. To put it another way, there were 40 political ads aired every hour of every day in the month of October.

Voters in Columbus, Ohio saw almost as many ads; 24,693, or 23.37 percent of all television ads, were political. The runners up were Portland, Ore. (21.78 percent), Sacramento, Calif. (21.18 percent) and Seattle, Wash. (19.47 percent).

Which voters were spared the onslaught of political advertising? Voters in Jackson, Miss., saw the fewest political spots at 827 or 1.02 percent. Voters in Richmond, Va. (2.45 percent), Lincoln, Neb. (2.79 percent), Salt Lake City, Utah (2.94 percent) and Tyler, Texas (3.60 percent) also got just a small dose of political advertising. Sure, there are probably some voters who prefer ads for car insurance over political spots, but think of all the fun they missed.

As George W. Bush makes the TV rounds promoting his memoir, the late night hosts miss no opportunity to use the ex-President's own words against him. Jon Stewart, on Bush regretting the 'Mission Accomplished' banner: "Two years to ponder a question you knew was going to be asked and the best you could come up with is, 'Yeh, good going there men and women, great mission or something'."

Drum roll: Today's must see moment -- fast forward to 2:03. Find out what Christine O'Donnell and ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin have in common.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Friday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup: On the radar today: Americans are aren't particularly enthusiastic about Republican wins this year; Rep. John Barrow (D-Ga.) becomes the latest Democrat to say he won't vote for Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.); Jim Talent (R) considers a rematch against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in Missouri; three Republicans eye Kent Conrad (D) in North Dakota and Sen. Lisa Murkowski's write-in campaign motors along.

Not Exactly Mandate Numbers: Despite giving the GOP sweeping victories in the House on Election Day, Americans are not particularly enthusiastic about what the GOP will do now that it is in power.

A new Pew Research Center poll shows that fewer respondents are happy that that GOP won (48 percent) than were happy about the Democratic victories in 2006 (60 percent) and Republican victories in 1994 (57 percent). The same percentage of independents -- 48 percent -- are happy the GOP won.

Also, fewer approve of the GOP's proposed policies (41 percent) than supported the Democrats' in 2006 (50 percent) and Republicans' in 1994 (52 percent).

The root of the discontent, however, may have less to do with the Republican Party than it does with the general displeasure with the governing process. Very few respondents -- 22 percent -- said they thought the relationship between Republicans and Democrats will improve after the election, while 28 percent said it will get worse and 48 percent said it will stay the same. In part because of that, nearly the same percentage said the GOP will be successful in getting their proposals passed -- 43 percent -- as said that they will be successful -- 37 percent.

Further, despite giving him only a 44 percent approval rating, respondents say Pres. Obama should take the lead in solving the country's economic problems. Nearly half -- 49 percent -- said Obama should be at the helm on economic issues, while 30 percent said Republican leaders should be.

Ultimately, it appears that Americans want Obama and Republicans to put aside partisanship and work together. More than half -- 55 percent -- said Republicans should work with Obama even if it disappoints Republican voters. A higher percentage -- 62 percent -- said Obama should work with Republicans even it it disappoints his supporters. A strong majority of Republicans, however, said Republican leaders should stand up to Obama -- 71 percent -- while fewer Democrats say Obama should stand up to Republican leaders -- 43 percent.
http://bit.ly/acEpMj

Barrow Bucks Pelosi: Georgia Democratic Rep. John Barrow, one of the few remaining white Southern Democrats, became the 18th member of the Democratic caucus to say he will not back Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for House Minority Leader. "Congressman Barrow will not support Nancy Pelosi for Democratic leader," Barrow spokeswoman Jane Brodsky told the Savannah Morning News. Barrow cruised to a 57 percent victory last week and his defection is another indication that Pelosi will have to rely almost exclusively on the liberal wing of her caucus to become Minority Leader. Barrow's defection comes just hours after another Georgia Democrat, Sanford Bishop, also said Thursday that he won't support Pelosi.
Savannah Morning News: http://bit.ly/bLPoh3
The Hotline's Whip Count: http://bit.ly/cpJZGA

Talent's Return? Former Sen. Jim Talent (R-Mo.) is strongly considering a rematch against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in 2012, Real Clear Politics's Erin McPike reports. "I am looking very carefully and very seriously at it," Talent told McPike.

Former Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis on Friday will become the first major candidate to announce a bid to chair the Republican National Committee.

In a letter being sent to national committee members, Anuzis says the decision to challenge incumbent chairman Michael Steele did not come easy, given his close relationship with Steele. But, he says, the only way for Republican to win back the White House is to get the RNC on the right path.

"The overriding challenge we face is winning back the Presidency in 2012 and we will not accomplish that objective unless there is dramatic change in the way the RNC does business," Anuzis wrote to members. "We can't rely on our wins in 2010 to carry us to success in 2012. We also can't win in 2012 unless the RNC re-establishes itself as the powerful force that put us over the top in 2000 and 2004."

Many members of the RNC are unhappy with the committee's direction after two years under Steele's leadership. But Anuzis said he wouldn't dwell on any perceived gaffes as he makes his pitch to members.

"I'm not discussing or addressing the past two years. Steele's record is the record and it speaks for itself. I am focusing on what is in the party's best interest this next cycle," Anuzis told The Hotline as he prepared to make his announcement public. "People like that I'm not bashing Steele, second guessing his policies or highlighting his mistakes. I don't have to. They are known, well-documented and written about."

Still, Anuzis's pitch is heavily laden with references to some of Steele's more controversial moves. "My agenda is very straightforward. I have no interest in running for office. I won't be writing a book. It is not my goal to be famous," Anuzis wrote, referring to a book Steele wrote that angered RNC members. Anuzis also pledged a "detailed review and supervision of how we allocate our resources," a reference to Steele's often strained relations with the party's biggest donors.

The pitch also focuses on what might have been had the RNC been as big a player in the party's get-out-the-vote operations as it had been in earlier years.

The number of Democrats who oppose House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to become House Minority Leader in the next Congress continues to grow.

So far, most of the members who have voiced their opposition to Pelosi come from the conservative wing of the party. Most -- including Reps. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.), Dan Boren (D-Okla.), Tim Holden (D-Pa.), Jim Matheson (D-Utah), Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) and Mike Ross (D-Ark.) -- are members of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition that saw its membership shrink by more than half in the midterms. Ross and Matheson, in fact, are poised to be among the members leading the Blue Dogs in the next Congress.

Some of these Democrats also only narrowly escaped the Republican wave this year. Altmire won with only 51 percent of the vote and Donnelly barely eked out a win with 48 percent of the vote. 

Others, however, aren't from the moderate wing of the party. Reps. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) and Mike Quigley (D-Ill.), for example, are both liberal members of the caucus who cruised to re-election this year.

Opposing Nancy Pelosi For Minority Leader: 18
Jason Altmire (D-Pa.)
Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.)
John Barrow (D-Ga.)
Dan Boren (D-Okla.)
Kathy Castor (D-Fla.)
Jim Costa (D-Calif.)**
Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.)*
Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.)
Tim Holden (D-Pa.)
Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio)*
Larry Kissell (D-N.C.)
Daniel Lipinski (D-Ill.)
Jim Matheson (D-Utah)
Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.)
Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.)
Mike Quigley (D-Ill.)
Mike Ross (D-Ark.)
Albio Sires (D-N.J.)

*DeFazio and Kaptur have called for postponing the leadership vote until December, which would give other members an opportunity to run for the post.

**Costa is currently locked in a too close to call race against Republican Andy Vidak.

Welcome back to our look at Congress' incoming freshmen class. On Wednesday, we looked at the top five incoming Republicans who, judging from their campaigns, don't look like they are ready for the bright lights -- and media attention -- of being in Congress.

We now turn to the freshmen who are poised to stand out in the very large incoming class and could become rising stars. Who, for example, will make a bee line for their party's leadership, like Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) and Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) did? And who will be good fits for the cable news circuit -- and pages of GQ -- a la Rep. Aaron Schock (R-Ill.)?

Of course, becoming a rising star comes with a word of warning: Several Democrats who were touted as the future of the party just two or four years ago lost last Tuesday -- like Reps. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) and Tom Perriello (D-Va.).

And with that, here are our Top Five Ready-For-Primetime Freshmen:

1. Tim Scott (R-S.C.)

Scott is the first African American Republican elected from the South since Reconstruction (joining West, whose personality couldn't be more different than Scott's). Scott has already been named to the GOP's Transition Team and was featured in former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) post election video. The Republican Party has been seeking to showcase its increased diversity, and Scott will be a major part of that. (Scott has, however, been unclear about whether he wants to join the Congressional Black Caucus.)

2. Kristi Noem (R-S.D.)

Noem, who unseated Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, was touted as a top recruit by the National Republican Congressional Committee and showcased her political know-how in easily defeating the state's Secretary of State in the primary. She's got a made-for-TV demeanor, she was one of the party's strongest fundraisers and she unseated one of the Democratic rising stars in Herseth Sandlin. (Check out the career trajectory of another South Dakota Republican who defeated a powerful statewide Democrat.) Noem is relatively young (she's 38), attractive and, like McMorris Rodgers, will offer needed diversity to the Republican leadership.

3. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.)

Kinzinger is shaping up to be the Republican version of Patrick Murphy, at least based on his biography. A decorated captain in the Air Force, the 32-year-old scored one of the most resounding victories of any Republican challenger, easily ousting Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.).

He also received numerous accolades for saving a young woman who was violently attacked in Milwaukee in 2006. Republican leadership, recognizing his potential, named him to the GOP's Transition Team.

4. Stephen Fincher (R-Tenn.)

In the year he's been running for Congress, Fincher has made his small rural hometown of Frog Jump, Tennessee, famous. His gospel singing quartet and farming roots made him one of the earliest recruits du jour for the GOP, making him something of a legend at NRCC headquarters.

And by winning a seat in a region of Tennessee that had been in Democratic hands since Reconstruction (John Tanner held it before announcing his retirement), Fincher can credibly claim his victory was historic.

5. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio)

It took him two tries, but Stivers finally unseated Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) this year. Stivers, who has been described at the GOP's "golden boy" for his political savvy, military record and fundraising ability, is a sure bet for some plum committee assignments. Stivers will need to make a mark -- his Columbus-based district may be hard to hold in a presidential year, even it if is redrawn after the census.

Honorable Mention:

As he contemplates running for a second term, Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele is on the verge of losing his coalition of supporters. Even some of those closest to the controversial chairman have begun urging him to step aside.

Strategists familiar with the RNC who both support and oppose Steele agree there are between 40 and 50 of the 168 voters who will back Steele for a second term. Another 40 to 50 members will definitely vote for someone else. The remaining members, numbering between 88 and 68, are undecided.

Meanwhile, a group of prominent Republicans led by Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie are searching for a consensus candidate capable of defeating Steele. Though they have not settled on a challenger, and in fact are unlikely to find a consensus choice, strategists who both support and oppose Steele say coalitions are forming now to deny Steele a second term.

Underscoring the difficulty Steele will have: Prominent RNC members have approached Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus about the possibility of running for national chairman. Priebus has listened to entreaties from several members, including Mississippi national committeeman Henry Barbour, as first reported by the Washington Post and Wisconsin national committeeman Steve King, as well as from other Steele supporters.

Priebus was Steele's top promoter during the 2009 chairman's race, and Steele named Priebus the RNC's general counsel. He has spent much of the last two years trying to keep RNC members in line, privately assuaging doubts about Steele's chairmanship and serving as a conduit between members and the RNC.

That Priebus would listen to colleagues who urge him to run for national chairman and would not refute those calls in public is a leading indicator that even Steele's most trusted advisors believe it is time for someone new . Priebus refused to comment on the record for this story.

Among those discussing names to replace Steele: Rove, Gillespie, former RNC chairman Mike Duncan, Ohio party chairman Kevin DeWine, Mississippi national committeeman Henry Barbour (nephew of Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour), Massachusetts national committeeman Ron Kaufman and Michigan national committeeman Saul Anuzis. The group had been hesitant to knock Steele in public before the midterms, but they no longer feel bound to keep such criticism inside the family.

Those who want Steele out have been searching for a candidate who could unite two factions -- one that opposes Steele explicitly and one that believes the RNC should take a new direction but harbors little ill will against the incumbent chairman.

Looks like Rep.-elect Allen West (R-Fla.) won't be bringing a conservative firebrand to D.C. after all.

In a tersely worded statement, West announced Thursday that conservative talk show host Joyce Kaufman will not be his chief of staff.

"It is with deep regret that this Congressional office and the people of [the 22nd District] will not have Joyce Kaufman as my Chief of Staff," West said. "Joyce is a good friend, and will remain loyal to South Floridians and to me."

West's decision to hire Kaufman made waves earlier this week. It was part of the reason why we named him one of the top five incoming freshman not ready for primetime. Kaufman has made numerous controversial statements in the past, including several very incendiary remarks about illegal immigration.

According to the Broward New Times, Kaufman is currently on air talking about the job. "Last night I called Congressman Allen West and told him I could not accept" the position, she said. She added that she "will not be used in an electronic lynching by proxy."

Former Arkansas Governor and potential 2012 contender Mike Huckabee (R) doesn't want there to be any question about the reason he is going to Iowa later this month -- politics.

Huck PAC executive director Hogan Gidley issued a statement Wednesday night that makes it very clear that Huckabee is seriously considering a run for the presidency.

Huckabee is visiting Iowa on Nov. 21 to fundraise for the Family Policy Center, a conservative Christian Group. On Wednesday, a local pastor, Dean Schmitt, suggested in a video that Huckabee was visiting Iowa not as a politician, but as a pastor.

"Mike Huckabee is coming to Des Moines on Nov. 21," said Schmitt. "He's coming not as a politician but as a pastor."

Gidley downplayed that suggestion in his statement.

"The governor often speaks openly and unapologetically about his own personal Christian faith, but he doesn't want there to be any confusion as to the nature of this invitation," he said. "The speaking request was made through Governor Huckabee's Political Action Committee. The governor was invited to speak about the political issues of the day and how they shape the culture of our country. His message will be political, but not partisan."

We have noted previously that Huckabee has traveled to Iowa the least of the potential 2012 GOP field. This is one of the first visits by a presidential contender to the state since the midterms, however, and it looks like Huckabee is trying to get as much political mileage out of it as he can.

(H/T Ben Smith)

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) ended her bid to become House Republican Conference Chair Wednesday night, endorsing Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) in a statement.

Republicans Backing Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas): 10
Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.)
Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.)
Paul Broun (R-Ga.)
Eric Cantor (R-Va.)
Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah)
Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.)*
Ron Paul (R-Texas)
Mike Pence (R-Ind.)
Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)
Tim Scott (R-S.C.)*

Republicans Backing Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.): 5
Chip Cravaack (R-Minn.)*
Louie Gohmert
Steve King (R-Iowa)
John Kline (R-Minn.)
Erik Paulsen (R-Minn.)

*Incoming freshman

Late night hosts make the easy decision to go after George W. Bush's 'Decision Points.' David Letterman on Bush getting some time to relax: "Here's why he's glad to be out of the Oval Office. Because he does not have to think all the time ... and I'm thinking wait a minute. That was him thinking all the time?"

Pres. Obama makes progress in Indonesia, but no presidential trip would be complete without some international embarrassment.

Don't miss today's must see moment: 1:28 Stephen Colbert's Foolproof International Hello

Republican operatives are confident that their current House leaders are able to represent the interests of the tea party movement, according the results of the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

A whopping 92 percent of the 103 Republican Insiders who responded to the survey this week, said that their current House leadership can "represent Tea Party interests well." Only eight percent said it couldn't. Democratic Insiders were dubious: 60 percent predicted that the GOP House leadership wouldn't be able to represent tea party interests well, while 39 percent said it could.

"[Incoming House Speaker John] Boehner (R-Ohio) has the soul of a Main Street small business owner and has lived what the tea party is feeling," said one Republican Insider. "Boehner fully recognizes the importance they played in providing Republicans with a majority and will include them as important parts of the team," added another.

Indeed, some Republicans seemed to view the Tea Party as conscience of the GOP. "The Tea Party is about economic discipline and individual liberty," said one GOP Insider. "If we can't be their champions we should quit."

But some Republican Insiders put a few caveats on their House leaders' ability to channel Tea Party sentiment. "Provided those interests continue to be rooted more in economic than social conservatism," said one GOP Insider. And another cautioned, "It will be tough keeping them happy though."

Good Thursday morning and happy Veterans Day. On the radar today: Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) ditches her bid for GOP Conference Chair; Joe Miller's legal team suffers a setback in Alaska; two House Democrats declare victory in California; handicapping the 2012 Massachusetts Senate race; Tim Kaine for Senate?; and two potential presidential contenders sign books, together, in Texas.

Bachmann Backs Out: The big leadership news breaking overnight is Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) ending her bid to become GOP Conference Chair. In a statement, Bachmann threw her weight behind Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), putting an end the only contested Republican leadership fight for next Congress.

In the statement, Bachmann said Hensarling will be a representative of the Tea Party in the leadership. "Jeb has demonstrated his commitment to limited government, reduced spending and lower taxes and he will be a strong voice for the Tea Party's call for these values," Bachmann said.

Bachmann's leadership bid never got off the ground, in part because Hensarling also held sterling conservative bona fides, preventing her from rallying conservatives' support against him. Hensarling has been a thorn in the side of GOP leadership in the past, and he had strong outsider credentials - and Tea Party leaders like former Rep. Dick Armey (R-Texas) backed his candidacy. Bachmann only announced five supporters before dropping out.
The Hotline's Whip Count: http://bit.ly/bh66C3

Not Miller's Time: Republican Joe Miller's legal effort was dealt a blow late Wednesday, as a judge denied Miller's request to throw out ballots where Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R) name was misspelled.

The ruling comes as the review of write-in ballots began on Wednesday. The first batch of write-in ballots -- from approximately 20 percent of Alaska's precincts -- were counted, the Anchorage Daily News reports, and 98 percent of the write in ballots were cast for Murkowski. The Anchorage Daily News news also reports that the Alaska Division of Elections accepted only a "few" of the objections made by Miller's team.

Counting the 90,000 total write-in ballots is expected to last five days. http://bit.ly/aURVPD, http://bit.ly/ahujBk

McNerney, Costa Declare Victory: Two California Democrats locked in previously too close to call races declared victory late Wednesday. In the 20th District, Rep. Jim Costa took a lead of 1,200 votes over Republican Andy Vidak after the ballots from his base, Fresno County, were counted. And in the 11th District, Rep. Jerry McNerney expanded his lead to 1,685 over Republican David Harmer on Wednesday.

Kaine For Senate? Speculation is already ramping up in Virginia about the 2012 Senate race and, from several phone calls, there appears to be growing buzz on both sides of the aisle that Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) will not seek re-election. Webb himself told RealClearPolitics this week that he's "still sorting out" whether he'll run again.

If Webb does step aside, the Democratic bench in Virginia is awfully thin. Democratic National Committee Chair and former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine is virtually the only Democrat with a statewide profile, with ousted Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.) as a possible sleeper candidate to watch if Webb steps down.

On the Republican side, there is near-unanimous assumption in Republican circles that Sen. George Allen (R) will run for his former seat and he will be the frontrunner for the nomination. Other potential challengers include Del. Bob Marshall, former Gov. Jim Gilmore and Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chair Corey Stewart. http://bit.ly/cmiQDT

Democrats are more inclined to favor a strategy of compromise in the next Congress while Republicans are drawn towards confrontation, according the results of the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Perhaps chastened by the defeat they suffered on Nov. 2nd, when asked whether their party should "pursue compromise or confrontation with the other party in the first several months of the new Congress," 55 percent of the 103 Democratic Insiders who responded to the poll this week chose compromise. A third of the Democratic Insiders -- 34 percent -- said confrontation and another 11 percent volunteered that their party should adopt both approaches.

That overall view contrasted sharply with Republican Insiders who took another message from the midterm returns. Of the 103 who responded to the poll this week, a plurality, 46 percent, said that the GOP should pursue confrontation with the Democrats in the beginning of the new Congress. Only 29 percent of the Republican Insiders favored the compromise strategy and 25 percent volunteered that their party should adopt both approaches.

In their comments, some Democratic Insiders acknowledged that they had to make adjustments post Nov. 2. "Regardless of the facts, the country thinks the Democrats have gotten it wrong and we need to show ability or an attempt at working with the other side," said one Democratic Insider. And several also thought that compromise would pay political dividends. Confrontation got us nowhere and I don't care if [incoming House Speaker John] Boehner (R-Ohio) and [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell (R-Ky.) go to the mattresses," said another Democratic Insider. "If the economy turns around and we were the ones offering and olive branch we win and they go down like [former House Speaker] Newt [Gingrich] (R-Ga.) before them."

Of course, some Democrats sounded like they were more ready for a fight. "Our side needs to identify principled issues that we won't compromise even if it means losing an election," declared one Democratic Insider.

With every incoming class of freshmen in Congress, there are some who are ready for  primetime and some who aren't.

Over the next two days, we'll bring you two lists: The top five incoming Republican members who are likely to be rising stars in the GOP and the top five who are most likely to say or do something that, well, won't help their re-election chances.

We'll start with the ones that appear most prone to do something outlandish or who may have already done something that could severely damage their re-election prospects. Who, for example, will be the Republican version of outgoing Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), who became known for his liberal rants on health care and against the Bush administration? Which is most likely to give their opponent's press secretary bunny ears on air, a la former Rep. Bill Sali (R-Idaho)?

Stay tuned on Thursday for a look at the five freshmen who will likely be rising stars.

1. Allen West (R-Fla.)

West, who defeated Rep. Ron Klein last Tuesday in a rematch of their 2008 face off, is most likely to become the GOP's equivalent to Grayson. West, an Iraq war veteran, has long been known for incendiary language, including one in which he said the U.S. is at war with Islam. The Republican is also well accustomed to dealing with the media and even hired conservative radio talk show host Joyce Kaufman -- who is known for her own incendiary rants -- as his chief of staff.

2. Blake Farenthold (R-Texas)

Farenthold, who looks like he has beaten Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D), already has a treasure trove of oppo research to use against him. And, as they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. Farenthold was captured hugging a scantily clad woman while wearing pajamas with ducks on them. Really.

3. Renee Ellmers (R-N.C.)**

Until the closing days of the campaign, Ellmers was considered a longshot to unseat Rep. Bob Etheridge (D). That's probably why no one paid attention to her outlandish TV ad that claimed that the proposed Ground Zero mosque in New York City was a "victory mosque" for Muslims. Ellmers also didn't make any friends at the National Republican Congressional Committee when she lashed out at them on her website earlier this week for not helping to pay for her recount fees. (The NRCC later chipped in $5,000 for Ellmers, for which she later thanked them.)

4. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.)*

The problem for Walsh, who is leading Rep. Melissa Bean (D), is that no one on his staff appears to like him. Most of his campaign staff walked out on him early in the race, saying that they were "basically just done." His campaign manager sued him for $20,000. And all that came after he had to pay a fine for filing his personal disclosure forms late.

In the last Senate race standing, the ballot count is finally underway. And, although Republican attorney Joe Miller narrowed the 13,400 vote gap between him and the "write-in" ballots to 11,300 on Tuesday and has filed a lawsuit as write-in ballots are set to be reviewed in Wednesday, at this point it looks likely that Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) will win a historic campaign.

Murkowski's current standing raises the question of how she was able to pull off such a stunning comeback. A close look at the election returns and a survey of Alaska political observers show that Murkowski courted from strong support in the rural areas of the state and among Democrats -- many of which appear to have split their ticket to back her.

A crucial factor was Alaska's sparsely populated rural districts, which gave Murkowski her largest margins during the primary, nearly tripled their turnout in the general, and gave write in an eight thousand vote win. The Anchorage Daily News's Kyle Hopkins points out that if Murkowski does win the rural villages were key to putting her over the top, and that five rural voting districts -- that had voted for former Gov. Tony Knowles (D) over Murkowski in the 2004 Senate race, and all of which currently have Democratic state representatives -- gave Murkowski about 60 percent of her lead.

State Rep. Bryce Edgmon (D), who represents one of those rural districts, understands why his constituents, even those who usually vote Democratic, wrote in Murkowski. In fact, he did the same thing. Edgmon pointed to the pragmatism of rural voters as well as longstanding relationships with the late Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and Murkowski.

"When it comes down to commonsense choices like whether they vote for somebody who's got seniority, who can help them in the future, versus somebody who's espousing some ideological viewpoints that don't represent their interests, they're going to go every time with the person with seniority who can help them out with their needs," said Edgmon of rural voters.

It's no surprise to Edgmon that so many threw their support to Murkowski.

Just a week after Election Day, Republicans are already chomping at the bit to get the ball rolling for 2012 Senate contests.

And judging from the number of Republican contenders who have already floated their names out there, it looks like the GOP could be facing another busy and stressful, primary calendar -- both in races where they are challenging Democrats and in states where they will be defending seats.

The GOP faces a wide playing field in 2012, as 21 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats are up for re-election. With only 10 Republican held seats up, that gives Republicans ample opportunity to win the seats necessary to gain a majority.

But there are early signs that the same intra-party feuds that limited huge pickups in the Senate in 2010 are re-emerging for 2012. Members who would be likely locks for re-election - Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar (R) and Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) -- could well face serious primary challenges from Tea Party candidates. And Democratic members who look vulnerable - like Montana's Jon Tester - could benefit from ideologically divided Republican fields.

If crowded fields do, in fact, form, they will present the possibility of a sequel where candidates favored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee -- like those seen this year in Delaware, Kentucky, and Colorado - end up losing to less-electable candidates. In those states, establishment Republicans ran into problems as their endorsed candidates went down in primaries. Republicans believe they could have comfortably won the Colorado and Delaware Senate races if their favored candidates prevailed.

Tyler Harber, a Republican pollster, said more Republicans will likely come forward to run in 2012 because of the GOP's 2010 successes. He compared it to the uptick in primary candidates in 1996 following the GOP wave year two years earlier. In most cases, primaries are good for the party, Harber said, but he expects that in 2012 there will be an influx in Tea Party candidates who may be too conservative for some states' moderate electorates -- like, say, Republican Ken Buck in 2010's Colorado Senate contest.

"There is no doubt that it could cost us more races in the future," Harber said of the primaries. "A very ideological candidate frequently won't back away from their positions. And that hurts them in a moderate electorate."

This dynamic is already playing out in Indiana. Lugar, a veteran moderate Republican, has said he will seek his seventh term in 2012. Lugar has been roundly criticized in conservative circles and Republicans are already lining him up to challenge from the right in the primary. They include state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R), state Sen. Mike Delph (R) and 2010 Senate candidate Don Bates, Jr..

Jay Leno reflects on the candid moments in George W. Bush's memoir: "He talked about how he and Dick Cheney often clashed because of their different styles. For example Bush likes to shoot from the hip whereas Cheney likes to shoot people in the face."

Don't miss today's must see moment: 1:38 Jimmy Kimmel On Obama's 'American' Childhood.

Good Wednesday Morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Joe Miller (R) goes to court as Alaska begins counting write-in ballots; Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) makes her case in USA Today as the anti-Pelosi for Minority Leader caucus grows; the Congressional Black Caucus backs James Clyburn (D-S.C.) for Minority Whip, drawing him nearly even with Steny Hoyer (D-Md.); and a GOP Facebook game.

Alaska Hijinks: Lots of developments in the Senate race on the Last Frontier Tuesday night. Most importantly, Republican Joe Miller is gaining ground on Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R) in early vote and absentee ballots. Alaska counted about 27,000 of those ballots on Tuesday, and the "write-in" lead over Miller narrowed from 13,439 to 11,333.

That comes as Miller has filed a lawsuit questioning the procedure in which write-in ballots are counted. Miller is taking issue with Alaska's guidelines, which state that the officials will use "discretion" in determining voter intent. That means that Murkowski's name may be misspelled as long as the intent of the voter is clear. Miller asked a judge to intervene and make the state throw out ballots where names are misspelled or don't match candidates' official declarations.

Alaska plans to begin reviewing the 92,000 write-in ballots at 9 a.m. local time.
http://usat.ly/aNHbR6
Alaska ballot review rules: http://bit.ly/8YCVOJ

Don't Miss: Our roundup of the races still too close to call: http://bit.ly/cht1uD

Pelosi's Pitch: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) took her case to be Minority Leader to the pages of USA Today with an op-ed on Wednesday. Pelosi touts the accomplishments of the 111th Congress in the piece -- including Wall Street reform and health care reform -- then pledges to work with the new Republican majority. "While the election is over, the urgent needs of the American people remain. Over the past several days, I have spoken with my Democratic colleagues about where we go from here. I have heard from Americans across our country who are relying on us to continue our fight to create jobs, hopefully in a bipartisan way, and move our nation forward. We will begin the 112th Congress with talented new colleagues, and also with a renewed dedication to fighting every day for jobs, economic recovery and the middle class." http://usat.ly/b8kMQn

Meanwhile, the caucus of Democrats who are opposing Pelosi for Minority Leader continues to grow. Reps. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) and Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) sent a letter to colleagues on Monday calling for postponing the leadership elections until December. That would effectively allow another member the time to organize a run against Pelosi. DeFazio, remember, was ambivalent during the campaign about whether he would back Pelosi again despite not facing a very tough challenge.
House Minority Leader Whip Count: http://bit.ly/cpJZGA
Letter: http://bit.ly/clIBeT

CBC Backs Clyburn: Meanwhile in the other Democratic leadership fight, the Congressional Black Caucus formally endorsed James Clyburn (D-S.C.) to be House Minority Leader. The endorsement was expected and if all of the CBC's nearly 40 members follow the endorsement, it means the Clyburn has come close to drawing even with current House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) for the post. By The Hotline's Whip Count, Hoyer currently leads Clyburn 50 to 12, but that doesn't take into account most of the CBC.
http://bit.ly/alNWIm

Who Are You Again? Worried about keeping tabs of the more than 60 new members of the GOP caucus? Fear not, the GOP has come up with a Facebook game of new members.
http://bit.ly/cME5lk

Below is a breakdown of incumbent Democrats who have publicly said they will back current House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) or House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) for House Minority Whip in the next Congress.

Democrats Supporting Steny Hoyer (D-Md.): 51
Jason Altimire (D-Pa.)
Joe Baca (D-Calif.)
Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.)
Howard Berman (D-Calif.)
Dan Boren (D-Okla.)
Robert Brady (D-Pa.)
Lois Capps (D-Calif.)
Dennis Cardoza (D-Calif.)
Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.)
Ted Deutch (D-Fla.)
John Dingell (D-Mich.)
Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.)
Eni Faleomavaega (D-American Samoa)
Sam Farr (D-Calif.)
Bob Filner (D-Calif.)
Barney Frank (D-Mass.)
John Garamendi (D-Calif.)
Gene Green (D-Texas)
Jane Harman (D-Calif.)
Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.)
Maurice Hinchey (D-N.Y.)
Tim Holden (D-Pa.)
Dale Kildee (D-Mich.)
Larry Kissell (D-N.C.)
Jim Langevin (D-R.I.)
Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.)
Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.)
Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.)
Ed Markey (D-Mass.)
Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.)
Jim Matheson (D-Utah)
Jim Moran (D-Va.)
Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.)
Pedro Pierluisi (D-Puerto Rico)
Jared Polis (D-Colo.)
Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.)
Silvestre Reyes (D-Texas)
Steve Rothman (D-N.J.)
Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.)
Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.)
John Sarbanes (D-Md.)
Adam Schiff (D-Calif.)
Brad Sherman (D-Calif.)
Albio Sires (D-N.J.)
Adam Smith (D-Wash.)
Jackie Speier (D-Calif.)
Betty Sutton (D-Ohio)
John Tierney (D-Mass.)
Niki Tsongas (D-Mass.)
Henry Waxman (D-Calif.)
Peter Welch (D-Vt.)

Election Day was one week ago and nine races are still yet to be called. Here's the breakdown of what's left.

SENATE

Alaska: Not much has changed here. The "write in" ballots, which are likely to predominantly support Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), lead Republican Joe Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams 41 percent to 34.3 percent to 23.6 percent, respectively. Alaska will begin counting write-in ballots on Wednesday and will review absentee and questioned ballots starting Friday.

And in a sign of legal challenges to come, Miller is now claiming that a construction company may have broken federal campaign rules by encouraging its workers to back Murkowski at a staff meeting.

GOVERNOR

Minnesota: Democrat Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer by 8,749 votes after Emmer picked up six votes from Hennepin County on Monday. Emmer, however, isn't giving up on his plans to seek a full recount.

HOUSE

Democrat Leading:

California 11: Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) holds a 628-vote lead over attorney David Harmer (R), and that lead has been widening of late. But Harmer still has hope: his base of San Joaquin County will report the bulk of its 29,000 absentees late this week, and that could yield him 2K votes.

Kentucky 6: Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leads Republican Andy Barr by 649 votes in the official vote tally, which was announced Monday. Barr's hoping for a miracle in a recanvass of the vote, scheduled to take place next week.

Democrat Trailing:

In the only remaining contested gubernatorial race, former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) and state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) are separated by less than 9,000 votes in Minnesota, as the state braces itself for a second statewide recount in two years.

But unlike two years ago, this recount could have a significant impact on the 2012 presidential race.

With all precincts counted and county canvassing officials currently proofing the results, Dayton leads Emmer 919,231 to 910,480, a slim .42 percent margin that falls just under the .5 percent mark that is the upper bound of recount range.

Should the race continue to be contested past Jan. 3, Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) will remain in office, a development that could alter the 2012 White House landscape as Pawlenty continues to mull a presidential bid.

Pawlenty could potentially benefit from an extended stay in office. Republicans won control of both the state Senate and House in Minnesota on Nov. 2, which could provide the outgoing governor an opportunity to pass state GOP legislative priorities. Pawlenty has emphasized that any personal considerations are secondary to his constitutional duty to stay, though some Democrats have expressed concern over lame-duck lawmaking.

County canvassing officials continue to proof the results of the election. On Nov. 23, the State Canvassing Board will convene to certify the final tally. If the two candidates are still separated by less than one half of one percent, an automatic recount will be triggered.

Last Friday, the Secretary Of State's office released a proposed schedule for a recount, should one be required. The schedule calls for a recount to begin on Nov. 29 and for the State Canvassing Board to certify the results on Dec. 14, but the proposal is subject to change.

Meanwhile, with the long, drawn out 2008 Senate race recount between Sen. Al Franken (D) and former Sen. Norm Coleman (R) still fresh in the minds of many Republicans in the state, party officials have been taking a proactive approach from the outset, highlighting an Election Day reporting glitch in Hennepin County and assembling a team ready for a recount showdown.

"The margin that currently separates Sen. Dayton and me is currently within the automatic recount trigger," said Emmer, in a statement last Wednesday. "There is a process in law that will ensure that we arrive at a conclusive result, ensuring that all valid votes are counted and the will of the voters is met."

Who is best positioned to win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination? Find out here, in The Hotline's inaugural Presidential Power Rankings. We rank the top 15 GOP contenders using a formula that answers a simple question: Who is currently in the strongest position to secure the nomination? Our criteria:

1. Money: How much do they have? How much can they raise?

2. Campaign infrastructure: Do they have the ability to assemble a competitive and competent staff, both at the national and state levels?

3. Strengths: What issue(s) can the candidate truly hang their hat on? Is there a specific area of expertise they can sell to voters? Do they have a strong track record on one particular issue?

4. Weaknesses: Every candidate has one -- heck, most candidates have plenty -- and the reality is that eventually they will have to address them. This will be easier for some contenders than others: Explaining away one vote for bad legislation is far easier than justifying a major moral lapse or some fatally flawed executive decision. At the end of the day, some candidates will have weaknesses, and others will have albatrosses. It's the latter group who should be worried.

So how did the potential contenders stack up? Go here to find out.

The Republican Party is wasting very little time going after one of their top Senate targets for 2012: West Virginia Sen.-elect Joe Manchin (D).

Manchin is already up for re-election because he was elected last Tuesday in a special election for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D) seat.

Just a week after he defeated Republican John Raese by 10 percent, Manchin is already being put on the defensive by rumors that he has been courted by the GOP to switch parties.

More, the National Republican Senatorial Committee also jumped on him on Tuesday, targeting him with its first attack statement of the 2012 cycle. In it, Republicans preemptively criticized Manchin for considering backing Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to retain his position as Senate Majority Leader. Reid supports cap and trade energy legislation, a proposal that Manchin has campaigned against and that is deeply unpopular in West Virginia, where coal mining is the top industry.

The Manchin offensive shows that Republicans are, just days after the 2010 election, trying to lay the groundwork for 2012. If the atmosphere remains anything like it is now in 2012, they will have a good shot at winning a Senate majority because of the number of Democrats who are up in swing or conservative leaning states.

Just as it did this year, the GOP sees an opportunity in Manchin. West Virginia continues to struggle economically and Pres. Obama's approval ratings in the state are hovering around 30 percent -- his worst in the country.

With Obama at the top of the ticket in 2012, Republicans believe they will have an even better shot at Manchin. Another reason for Republican optimism: A different challenger. Raese was not the GOP's first choice and all eyes are already on Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who passed on the race this year.

Fresh off receiving the endorsement of a major coalition of black leaders, Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.) all but officially announced he's running for mayor of Chicago Monday afternoon.

In an interview with WGN radio, Davis said he will "be making a formal announcement before the week is over."

The Chicago Coalition for Mayor, a group of influential black leaders in the city, surprised observers earlier this week when it backed Davis over former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun and Rev. James Meeks.

Even with that coalition's backing, however, the large field of African-American candidates could split the black vote and significantly hamper Davis' chances. Moseley Braun, for example, has already opened campaign offices even though she hasn't officially announced she's running yet.

And a divided African American vote, should all these contenders stay in the race, could help pave Emanuel's way to the mayor's office.

Davis appeared aware of that in Monday's interview. He said that it "looks like Rahm Emanuel will more than likely be in the runoff" but that he expects "to be in the runoff with him."

Emanuel's path was also made clearer last month when Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart dropped out of the race.

The Chicago Coalition for Mayor's endorsement of Davis also surprised observers because Davis has been an unsuccessful mayoral candidate in the past. Daley ran against Richard Daley in 1991 and lost by a two to one margin.

Davis, who has represented parts of downtown Chicago and the city's Near North Side for more than a decade, has also thrown his hat into other races only to pullout. He approached former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) about the appointment to fill Pres. Obama's Senate seat. Blagojevich reportedly offered the seat to Davis, but Davis turned it down and recommended now former Sen. Roland Burris (D).

Other contenders in the race include former Daley Chief of Staff Gery Chico and Chicago City Clerk Miguel del Valle.

Stephen Colbert is still riding high from the midterm elections: "A GOP sweep is like Christmas, but with even more Jesus."

Don't miss today's must see moment: 2:45 Jay Leno Photoshops Pres. Obama busting a move.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Cross three more undecided races off the list; Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) makes his Minority Whip bid official, jumps out to early lead over James Clyburn (D-S.C.); Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) is the early frontrunner for DCCC chair; the DSCC, meanwhile, can't find one; and Chris Christie's (R) popularity higher than Obama's in New Jersey.

Hoyer Declares, Jumps To Early Lead: Current House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) made his bid to be House Minority Whip official on Monday and already has a sizable advantage over currently Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.).By The Hotline's Whip Count, Hoyer currently leads Clyburn by a 44 to 10 margin among members who have made their support for either contender known. That said, many members of the 39-member Congressional Black Caucus haven't publicly declared for Clyburn yet, and most are expected to do so.
Whip Count: http://bit.ly/alNWIm

Israel For DCCC Chair? Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) is the early frontrunner to take over the helm of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The Washington Post reports that Israel has "the inside track" to take over for Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) but that Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) and Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.) are also in the running. http://wapo.st/9EZOdx

A Leaderless DSCC: A problem for Democrats is that no one appears to want to chair the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. With only 10 Republican-held seats up for grabs - most in deep-red states like Utah, Mississippi and Texas - it's going to be hard to knock off any Republicans, save Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown and Nevada Sen. John Ensign. There's a good reason why Harry Reid has been hard-pressed to find any one of his colleagues willing to chair the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2012.

Among those who have said they don't want to succeed Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) as chair: Sens. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), Al Franken (D-Minn.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Mark Udall (D-Colo.), Tom Udall (D-N.M.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.).

Cross Three More Off The List: Three more races came to their conclusion Monday. In the Connecticut governor's race, Republican Tom Foley conceded to Democrat Dan Malloy Monday afternoon. Later Monday, the AP called Virginia's 11th district for Rep. Gerry Connolly (D). The AP also called Washington's 2nd for Rep. Rick Larsen (D) late Monday.

That leaves Reps. Ben Chandler (D-Ky.), Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.), Jim Costa (D-Calif.), Melissa Bean (D-Ill.), Dan Maffei (D-N.Y.), Solomon Ortiz (D-Texas), Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) and Bobby Etheridge (D-N.C.) as the eight members whose fates remain up for grabs. Chandler, McNerney and Costa are favorites to return next Congress, while Bean, Maffei, Ortiz, Bishop and Etheridge are in rougher shape. It's looking like Republicans will net about 64 seats when all is said and done, the highest number of GOP pickups since 1938.

Christie More Popular Than Obama: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) continues to have among the strongest poll numbers of any governor in the country, according to a new survey from Quinnipiac. More than half of New Jersey voters -- 51 percent -- approve of Christie's job performance - higher than President Obama's 46 percent approval rating in the state. Another 52 percent say Christie's first year in office has been a success - a remarkable statistic, given his conservative leadership in a Democratic-friendly state.

Election Day was almost a week ago, and there are still nearly a dozen races that have yet to be called. Below is a breakdown of Alaska Senate race, Minnesota governor's race and nine House races that are still undecided.

SENATE

Alaska: We're still in a holding pattern in Alaska. The write-in option (of which Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is the main event) leads Republican Joe Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams 41 percent to 34.3 percent to 23.6 percent, respectively. Alaska will begin counting write-in ballots on Wednesday and will review absentee and questioned ballots starting Friday. Both Murkowski and Miller have begun forming extensive legal teams.

GOVERNOR

Minnesota: Democrat Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer by 8,755 votes, but this one appears to be heading for a recount. Emmer is preparing a legal team, even though Democrats believe Dayton's lead is insurmountable. Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (D) (remember him?) has set a schedule that calls for the state canvassing board to meet Nov. 23. The recount would then begin Nov. 29, with a recount deadline of Dec.7. The deadline for certifying the next governor would be Dec. 14.

HOUSE

Democrat Leading

California 11th: Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) leads Republican David Harmer by 421 votes. McNerney appears to be in control as California continues to count vote-by-mail ballots and they are breaking his way. Harmer is going to court to seek to disqualify some of those ballots.

Kentucky 6th: Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leads Republican Andy Barr by 643 votes. The official count is in. Barr has not conceded and is calling for a recanvass to be conducted later in November.

Last Tuesday's elections saw the birth of bright political stars -- Florida Sen.-elect Marco Rubio (R), New Mexico Gov.-elect Susana Martinez (R) and Delaware Sen.-elect Chris Coons (D), to name a few. But it also saw the demise of rising politicos in several states; people who were once the leading bench player in their state party, or even considered a future presidential prospect.

Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) might be the best (or worst) case of this abrupt change in fortune. Touted by some as a future GOP nominee for president, Whitman spent more than $140 million of her own money to be defeated in the California governor's race by 13 percent in a Republican wave year. If she had won the gubernatorial race, and managed to somehow solve California's seemingly impossible budget crisis, she would have been on the short list for a White House run. But, alas, it's hard to imagine Whitman running again for governor after this 2010 shellacking, and it's doubtful she'd consider running for lower office.

Like Whitman, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (I) was mentioned as a possible White House contender, and was considered for Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) vice presidential shortlist in 2008. But his zigzag 2010 Senate run against Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) killed off any chances he'll ever have to be a part of the Republican Party, and probably ruined him for statewide office in Florida as well. Observers never count Crist out, though, since he's made political reincarnation a centerpiece of his career.

"He is like the Jason character on 'Friday the 13th,'" GOP consultant Ana Navarro noted in the St. Petersburg Times last week. "You're never sure he's really dead and won't keep showing up again in bad sequels."

Rumors swirl that Crist may challenge Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.) in 2012, or run for the open seat if 79-year-old Young retires. So Washington might get the chance to hang out with Crist yet.

Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) lost his Senate bid this year by 18 points. He lost a gubernatorial bid in 1998 by five points. The last time he won statewide on his own accord was 1990. Fisher, who lacks a certain amount of charisma and was a terrible fundraiser this year, will probably never hold statewide office in Ohio again.

But he certainly won't go down in the record books as this year's worse also-ran. Washington's Dino Rossi (R), who has run and lost twice for governor and once for Senate, has probably struck out in statewide politics. What's worse is that every race he's been in has been achingly close. Some Republicans, like Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), say that's a sign of election fraud. It's probably just a sign of running in an increasingly blue state. Rossi could run for Congress in a conservative district, or just give up on electoral politics entirely.

Tom Foley, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Connecticut, announced Monday afternoon that he is conceding the race to Democrat Dan Malloy.

Foley called the election "a conclusive victory" for Malloy and said the final result "should not be questioned."

Malloy was declared the winner of the race by Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) and the AP last Friday after much controversy. Bysiewicz's official count currently has Malloy leading Foley by 5,810 votes, outside the margin needed for an automatic recount.

Foley's campaign examined the possibility of asking for a precinct-by-precinct re-canvassing of the vote, but determined that it would not ultimately change the outcome of the election. But the Connecticut GOP is asking federal and state authorities to formally look into the matter despite Foley's decision.

"We're going to ask the U.S. Attorney to look into it. We're going to ask the state to look into it," Connecticut GOP chair Chris Healy said Monday morning. "I'm going to ask the new secretary of the state to look into it."

The AP had initially called the race for Malloy, but withdrew its call on Wednesday after officials from the city of Bridgeport were slow to report their final tally.

"I think what happened in Bridgeport should be looked in to," Foley said in Monday's presser, calling the rest of the state's counting "very reliable."

Based on their gains in state legislatures, governorships and projected population shifts, the Republican Party may start the 2012 cycle in position to expand their House majority by at least 10 seats.

Hotline On Call reported last week that the GOP picked up an eye-popping 680 seats in state legislatures last Tuesday on its way to flipping control of 19 chambers across the country.

But what is more striking is that in the states projected to gain or lose seats after the census this year, the GOP now holds the redistricting "trifecta" -- meaning the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature -- in the vast majority of them.

This is critically important because these are the states where districts will be most drastically redrawn and, in the states that stand to gain a seat, it virtually guarantees that new district will be drawn with a future Republican member in mind.

Estimates by Election Data Services in late September show that there are eight states projected to gain at least one seat in Congress. Of those eight, the GOP now holds unilateral control of redrawing the district lines in six of them.

Most notably, Texas, which is controlled by a GOP state legislature and governor, is slated to gain four seats. Similarly, Florida is projected to pick up two House seats and Republicans now hold both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship with Republican Rick Scott's win last Tuesday.

Four other states -- Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina and Utah -- are also projected to pick up a seat and all four have state governments uniformly controlled by Republicans. Arizona, however, has an independent redistricting commission that is insulated from the political process.

Democrats hold unfettered control in only one state estimated to pick up a seat: Washington.

Things are only slightly better for Democrats when attention is turned to states projected to lose seats. Holding control of the governorship and state legislatures in these states is also important, because lines could be drawn that either force members into early retirement or force them to face off against another incumbent.

Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) announced Monday that he will run for another term as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, putting to rest speculation that he would seek the post of House Minority Whip in the next Congress.

"I look forward to leading our new Majority through the challenges of re-electing over 80 freshman Republican Members, navigating congressional re-districting, and maximizing a presidential election cycle," Sessions said in a statement.

The announcement signifies that the Republican leadership in the next Congress will be almost identical to this Congress, with the leadership moving from minority to majority roles.

Sessions was rumored to be eyeing a run for Minority Whip. With this announcement, it looks like Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who was Chief Minority Deputy Whip in the last Congress, has a lock on the job.

Sessions has the blessing of House Speaker-to-be John Boehner. In a statement, Boehner said the GOP needs Sessions' "steady hand" at the NRCC.

"As the architect for the new Republican majority, Pete Sessions has my admiration and gratitude," Boehner said. "I look forward to his strong leadership in the years ahead."

The only other difference among the GOP leadership is for GOP conference chair. Rep. Michael Pence (R-Ind.) has vacated that role to pursue other political offices. Reps. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) and Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) are facing off for that position.

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Steny Hoyer and James Clyburn continue to battle it out for House Minority Whip; Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) prepares to unveil her backers for Republican Conference Chair; Eric Cantor (R-Va.) takes a shot at Nancy Pelosi; Lisa Murkowski's (R-Alaska) rural focus; and Jon Ralston dissects Harry Reid's (D-Nev.) stunning victory.

Dem Leadership Battle: The battle to be House Minority Whip in the next Congress between current House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) is sure to be a focus on Capitol Hill on Monday. So far, Hoyer has released many more backers than Clyburn, though it is still early - and Clyburn is expected to win the support of most Congressional Black Caucus members, and most haven't publicly announced who they're backing. Here's the public whip count so far:

Hoyer: Reps. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Jared Polis (D-Colo.), Robert Brady (D-Pa.), Jim Moran (D-Va.), Lois Capps (D-Calif.), John Garamendi (D-Calif.), Silvestre Reyes (D-Texas) and Del. Pedro Pierluisi (D-Puerto Rico), Bob Filner (D-Calif.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.), Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.), Dan Boren (D-Okla.), Dennis Cardoza (D-Calif.), Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Ted Deutch (D-Fla.), Sam Farr (D-Calif.), Gene Green (D-Texas), Eni Faleomavaega (D-American Samoa), Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.), Tim Holden (D-Pa.), Dale Kildee (D-Mich.), Larry Kissell (D-N.C.), Jim Langevin (D-R.I.), Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.), Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.), Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.), Steve Rothman (D-N.J.), Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.), Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.), John Sarbanes (D-Md.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Albio Sires (D-N.J.), Adam Smith (D-Wash.).

Clyburn: Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), Emanuel Cleaver (R-Mo.), Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.), Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) and Grace Napalitano (D-Calif.).

(Are we missing any? Let us know in the comments section below.)

Donnelly No On Pelosi: Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) became the first Democrat to oppose current House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) staying in the leadership. Donnelly issued a statement calling for new leadership. "I strongly believe we need a change in leadership to reflect the desires of the millions of people who cast votes in this recent election," Donnelly said. http://bit.ly/aTrk4p

Hensarling v. Bachmann: The leadership battle between Reps. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) and Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) for House Republican Conference Chair is set to heat up this week. Hensarling has already trickled out endorsements, including from most of the GOP leadership. Most recently, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), a favorite of the conservative right, endorsed him on Friday. Sources in Bachmann's camp plan on announcing who they have lined up early this week and that it's a "good number." Bachmann may have a base of support with the sizable freshman class, given that many ran as conservative outsiders, a group more sympathetic to her anti-establishment message.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) escaped re-election limbo earlier this weekend, as the AP declared her the winner over Iraq war veteran Jesse Kelly (R). But Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.), who was declared the winner on Election Night after piling up a 3,400-vote advantage over businessman Randy Altschuler (R), now finds himself trailing Altschuler by 393 votes.

The stunning reversal of Bishop's fortunes came after officials at the Suffolk County Board of Elections examined the voting machines when they returned to the Board of Elections' warehouse and found that the earlier reported results were erroneous.

Altschuler did not concede the race after falling behind on Election Night -- even though Bishop claimed victory -- and Altschuler's campaign released a statement earlier Saturday reiterating its position. "On Election Night, I told my supporters that this race was too close to call and that we were in the race until every vote was accurately counted. We were right!" Altschuler wrote. "We are working closely with the National Republican Congressional Committee to guarantee that we have the resources needed to ensure that every vote is accurately and fairly counted."

Altschuler also noted that nearly 10,000 absentee ballots remain to be counted in the contest. And one report suggests those may tilt in Altschuler's direction, as 40 percent of those ballots came from Republicans, while 37 percent came from Democrats.

Bishop also sent an e-mail to supporters Saturday, asking them to donate $25,000 by Monday "to help count every vote." "This dramatic swing of approximately 4,000 votes and reports of problems at polling places on Tuesday make clear we must do everything we can to ensure that every single vote is properly counted," Bishop wrote.

While it may be quite a while before a winner is declared in that race, Giffords' re-election bid came to its conclusion late Friday when the AP declared her the winner.

Giffords led Kelly by 2,500 votes on Election Night, and never relinquished the lead throughout the next three days. In fact, her lead grew by 1,000 votes as 25,000 additional votes were added to the tally.

Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele is not ready to declare himself a candidate for a second term, even as his committee prepares to make the case to members that Steele's strategic decisions led to big GOP gains this week.

In a meeting with reporters Friday, Steele and Republican pollster Frank Luntz argued that investments in key states early in Steele's tenure gave the party needed momentum, even as media reports and some of the GOP's top strategists warned the party was in danger of becoming boxed in regionally.

"I think you can safely say the party has re-emerged. It is a very different party. I think it's a transcendent party," Steele said Friday.

Steele has faced criticism from party members and establishment Republicans for a slow fundraising pace. But, he said, the RNC has raised more than should be expected for a party that does not control Congress or the White House. The RNC has revamped its small-donor program, which Steele said would help the party in the long term.

But the move Steele cited as key to Republican success was an early decision to invest in governor contests in Virginia and New Jersey, where national Republicans spent $13 million in successful efforts to win back Democratic-held seats. The RNC also invested $2 million in a campaign against health care legislation, which riled up conservative activists and helped coalesce Republican opposition.

Steele also tried to emulate former Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean, whose 50-state strategy sent staffers to all corners of the country; Steele called Dean's "a rather brilliant strategy." The Republican program, dubbed D2H -- Delaware, the First State, to Hawaii, the 50th -- sent money and staffers even to Democratic-heavy areas.

Those investments, Luntz said, made a big difference. A survey Luntz conducted for the RNC on Election Day showed a majority of voters decided how to vote months ago, and early spending helped Republicans capture those voters.

Tuesday's election results lead the Sunday shows this weekend. On "Meet the Press," Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), a leader of insurgent Tea Party candidates this year, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a moderate Republican, will discuss what the GOP has become in the two years out of power. "Face the Nation" has members of both parties' leadership, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), who may be facing a fight against current House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) to be House Minority Whip in the next Congress.

"Fox News Sunday" has two of the "Young Guns," House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) -- who most likely will become Majority Leader -- and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) -- who is slated to become chair of the House Budget Committee -- to discuss the GOP agenda for the next two years. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), who may lead investigations into the Obama administration as the potential chairman of the House Oversight Committee, will also be on.

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), former White House Communications Director Anita Dunn, former White House adviser Karen Hughes, National Urban League Pres. Marc Morial, and GOP strategist Mike Murphy.
Face the Nation hosts Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.).
This Week hosts Sen.-elect Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.), and former OMB Director David Stockman.
Fox News Sunday hosts House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.), Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), and Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.).
State of the Union hosts Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), Sen.-elect Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), Washington Post's Karen Tumulty, and Time's Michael Duffy.

Other Weekend Shows

Political Capital features Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele (Bloomberg, FRI, 7pm).

There's nothing at all ordinary about the gigantic Republican incoming freshman class. But in 2010, coming across as "ordinary" was in.

Among GOP hopefuls, it didn't pay to earn an elite reputation. Just ask "Fair Tax millionaire" Tim Burns (R) in Pennsylvania's 12th District, "credit card executive" David Harmer (R) in California's 11th, "Wall Street investment banker" Matt Doheny (R) in New York's 23rd, "outsourcing pioneer" Randy Altschuler (R) in New York's 1st or "commercial real estate banker" Scott Bruun (R) in Oregon's 5th.

But it did pay to be "average nurse" Renee Ellmers (R) in North Carolina's 2nd, "Navy Reservist running with all due respect" Chip Cravaack (R) in Minnesota's 8th, "farmer and rancher" Andy Vidak (R) in California's 20th, "pizza shop owner" Bobby Schilling (R) in Illinois' 17th and "country doctor" Scott DesJarlais (R) in Tennessee's 4th. Even if these candidates lacked access to money at first, they were eventually able to play the role of sympathetic change agent while the GOP's outside group consortium, with a wink and a nod from the National Republican Congressional Commitee, took on the negative burden.

Texas Republican Rep.-Elect Blake Farenthold, who shocked 28 year Democratic Rep. Solomon Ortiz in a 71 percent Hispanic Corpus Christi district, actually admitted to a local TV station, "Early on in the race, I had a nightmare that I won. And now it's like, 'Now what do I do?'"

Time will tell how well some of these rough-around-the-edges candidates adjust to life in Congress. And it won't be long before Democrats start drawing up blueprints to ensure many of them are "one term wonders." But it's almost impossible to draw up plans to reverse the outcomes of 2010 in districts that won't exist in 2012 thanks to redistricting by state legislators. And Democrats easily made squeamish by looking at last night's returns in the House should avert their eyes from results in state legislative seats, where entire generations of Democratic rural local officeholders are now extinct. It may take years, if not months or weeks, for Democrats to fully comprehend the full devastation inflicted in this one midterm election.

In light of MSNBC's decision to suspend Keith Olbermann indefinitely for donating to three Congressional campaigns, we thought it would be timely to release excerpts of Hotline's Friday Feature with the last personality at the network to get similar treatment, David Shuster.

Q: First, MSNBC has publicly said your contract ends in December. What are your future plans?

I'm confident MSNBC and I will have an amicable conversation at some point about my future and theirs. Beyond that, I am not going to talk right now about what's ahead.

Q: Are you upset with how MSNBC handled your situation?

Not in the least. I harbor no resentment or ill will towards MSNBC.

Q: Where's your hometown? And what was it like growing up there?

I grew up in Bloomington, Indiana. My parents were on faculty at Indiana University and our family lived about a mile from campus. Bloomington is one of the most beautiful college towns in America. Furthermore, the environment provided an amazing array of family friendly experiences - whether it was watching National championship basketball teams, attending performances at IU's world renown school of music, or growing up with kids from a wide variety of backgrounds and cultures. Furthermore, Bloomington - like most college towns -- is not exactly a "materialistic" place. The priorities instead were knowledge, kindness, and friendship. And to this day, I thank my lucky stars to have grown up in that environment.

Q: What were you like in high school?

I was kind, outgoing, respectful of parents/teachers, and never stayed out very late. So, I was the sort of teenager that adults liked but who felt a bit lost on occasion around some of my peers. Still, I lettered in tennis and swimming, made all-state as a musician, got good grades, and had a tight knit group of friends in the National Honor Society/Athlete/Band geek crowd.

Q: What is the most memorable critique/commentary received by a superior?

The encouragement has always been more memorable to me than the criticism. I'll never forget the bear hugs from Rick Kaplan when he was MSNBC President, especially at a political convention in 2004. Rick came up with a brilliant story idea that was difficult to pull off. And I wasn't sure if he would like the final product. Furthermore, my piece aired as Rick and then NBC CEO Bob Wright were watching on a monitor a few feet from me. Thankfully, they both loved the piece. And Rick's bear hug that day was relieving, to say the least. More recently, last January I anchored MSNBC's coverage of the final Congressional votes for health care reform. It involved doing seven hours without a teleprompter. Towards the end, NBC News President Steve Capus sent me a gracious note complimenting me for how I quarterbacked the coverage. Whenever a Broadcast News division President says you've done well in that kind of high profile high wire situation, it's memorable and then some.

Q: What's your best experience at a job interview? Worst?

My best experience was with Chris Matthews as I was interviewing to be his Hardball correspondent in 2002. He was as gracious, kind, and enthusiastic as anybody I had ever met in TV news. And he still is. I can't think of a "bad" job interview experience... So, I'll pass on that.

Q: If you could have one super power to aid you in your job, what would it be?

The ability to hear any person's unique voice in real time, even if they are behind walls or in another part of the city, would be a fun boost to my reporting efforts. So, I would vote for "super hearing."

Q: Finish this sentence: Today I...

Today I hung out with some of my graduate school friends, laughed a lot, and had a blast.

Q: In one sentence, your best advice to young, fresh out-of-college journalists.

Don't worry about those student loans - you will be able to pay them off eventually, I promise!

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi can credit the drubbing House Democrats received for putting her in a strong position to keep her leadership post. Democrats lost 36 of the 48 members who represent districts that John McCain carried in 2008, wiping out much of the party's moderate wing that would be most resistant to Pelosi's return to power.

Instead, the new House Democratic conference is now disproportionately filled with liberals representing safe districts, who have always been her natural base of support. That makes her return to leadership in the minority very likely - she wouldn't announce her intention to run without a sense she has the votes.

But the optics for Democrats couldn't be worse, given that the White House is trying to turn the page on a disastrous year and that many Senate Democrats up for re-election hail from conservative-minded states. And the prospect of House Democrats making headway in 2012 with Pelosi as their leader - and a tougher map thanks to redistricting won't help - certainly take a hit.

Already a handful of surviving liberal members in swing districts, like Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.), have publicly announced their reticence to see Pelosi return. And many of the remaining Blue Dogs and conservatives - Reps. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) and Mike Ross (D-Ark.), among others - have already expressed opposition to her return.

But given the Republican tidal wave wiping out the centrist wing of the party, there aren't too many Democrats left in competitive districts who can prevent her comeback - and that's not music to the ears of many Democratic strategists looking to plot a comeback in 2012.

It's clearly good news for the GOP that they can claim 13 of the 16 incoming Senate freshmen as their own. But another piece of good news for the GOP's long-term Senate prospects is the relative youth (by senatorial standards) of these freshmen. Seven were born in the 1950s and five were born in the 1960s, each of whom could have quite a few terms in the Senate ahead of them. (The exception is 67-year-old Dan Coats (R-Ind.)).

By contrast, two of the three Democratic freshmen (Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Joe Manchin of West Virginia) are already in their 60s and will be in the upper half age-wise of the Senate. (Delaware's Chris Coons (D) is a relatively youthful 47.)

Of course, any of these incoming senators could easily run for another couple terms. Still, the relative youth of the incoming freshman class of GOPers is something of a safety cushion for the party's chances to hold the Senate 20 years down the line.

Get the next Senate ranked by age after the jump.

Republican Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) is set to give the maximum amount possible to Alaska Senate contender Joe Miller's legal defense fund, a sign that DeMint is keeping up his fight against Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R).

Miller appears to be trailing Murkowski's write-in campaign. Write-in ballots outnumber Miller's vote total by about 13,400 in the current count. Those ballots will be reviewed starting next week, which could lead to lengthy legal challenges over what constitutes a vote for Murkowski.

DeMint has hit up his donor base for Miller's legal team. As soon as the Miller's legal fund is set up -- which could be as soon as Friday -- DeMint will contribute the maximum allowable to it, expected to be about $5,000.

"Joe Miller is the Republican nominee in Alaska and we're going to do everything we can to help him," said Matt Hoskins, a spokesman for DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund. "The legal cost of maintaining the integrity of this election could be very high so we're going to raise as much support for Miller as we can."

DeMint has been something of a kingmaker of the Republicans' conservative wing. His Senate Conservatives Fund raised funds for 11 conservative Senate contenders this year, five of whom went on to win.

He has been particularly critical of Murkowski for waging her write-in campaign after losing the primary, going so far as to call her a "hypocrite."

As national attention shifts from the election results to the few races where the outcome is still uncertain, Miller's campaign looks like it could become a focus for the right. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) also urged his supporters to contribute to Miller on Thursday.

House Republican Conference chairman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) will offer a major economic address later this month, the latest evidence that the Indiana congressman has his sights set on a foray into the national political scene.

Pence will address the Detroit Economic Club on Nov. 29 in a speech advisors hope will allow him to burnish his credentials as a fiscal policy expert and more than just a deficit hawk. In the address, Pence will outline an economic plan focused on limiting government spending, tax cuts and free trade.

The announcement of the address comes a day after Pence issued a statement blasting the Federal Reserve for buying back $600 billion in U.S. government bonds in an effort to lower interest rates. In a statement, Pence said the move would dilute the value of the dollar, which he called "an incalculable risk."

Many economists applauded the Fed's actions and said the buy-back would help the struggling economy rebound by lowering interest rates and spurring growth. But Pence's position appeals to the most conservative fiscal hawks.

Pence's decision to appear at the influential Detroit Economic Club, where presidents routinely make their economic and fiscal policy cases, hints that he has designs on a run at national office. Late last month, Pence announced he would not seek another term as Conference chairman in order to seek "new opportunities to serve Indiana and our nation."

In a statement announcing his decision, Pence telegraphed a bid for higher office. "I have come to realize that it may not be possible to complete an entire term as conference chairman. As such, I think it would be more appropriate for me to step aside now," he said.

The national unemployment rate held at 9.6 percent in October and the economy added jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In total, the economy added 151,000 jobs in October - its best performance in months.

The report is a ray of good news for the White House at the end of a week where Democrats were handed devastating losses in the midterm elections.

The growth was particularly robust in the private sector, which added 159,000 jobs.

Government employment, a sector that had been shedding jobs quickly as temporary census workers completed their assignments, remained steady in October.

The total number of employed people, 14.8 million, also changed very little in October.

The report comes a month too late for Democrats. In the last jobs report before the midterms released in early October, the unemployment rate held steady but the economy continued to shed 95,000 jobs. Republicans were relentless throughout the campaign in pointing to the jobs reports as signs that the Democrats' economic proposals were not working.

Good Friday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Democrats win in key Washington, Illinois races; the latest results; Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) floats a trial balloon; Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) picks up the support of Young Gun Paul Ryan (R-Wis.); Nate Silver reviews pollsters and Rick Perry (R-Texas) and Chris Christie (R-N.J.) tamp down 2012 speculation.

The Latest: Good news for Democrats late Thursday. Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) won her re-election bid, as Republican Dino Rossi conceded. Murray's win means the Republican gains in the Senate will stick at six seats.

And in Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) also defeated Republican Bill Brady. Quinn, let's not forget, was almost entirely written off early in the campaign season.http://bit.ly/aX65gQ, http://bit.ly/aZI51l

Meanwhile, the AP late last night called Arizona's 7th District race for Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) over Republican Ruth McClung. That leaves only nine House races too close to call.

In Arizona's 8th District, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' (D) lead grew to 3,055 votes over Republican Jesse Kelly. And Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), who is hanging on to a very narrow 507 vote lead over Republican John Koster, issued a statement saying he's confident he'll stay on top with 24,488 new ballots reported late Thursday.

For more complete analysis on the other races that are still undecided, go here: http://bit.ly/b5gqpL

A Lead Trial Balloon: ABC News reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is considering running for House Minority Leader. From ABC: "Pelosi is methodically calling every Democratic House member who won on Tuesday, as well as many who lost, sources tell ABC News. In the process, she is weighing her options and gauging her support."

Just sayin', it is very hard to see how Pelosi gathers enough support to stay in the leadership after she was featured in virtually every Republican attack ad this cycle. http://bit.ly/9VyVcd

Hensarling Picks Up Ryan: Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) got a boost late Thursday in his bid to be Republican Conference Chairman from (expected) incoming House Budget Committee chair Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). Hensarling is squaring off against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) in the only contested GOP House leadership battle.

"I ask you to join me in supporting Jeb Hensarling for House Republican Conference Chairman," Ryan wrote in a letter to colleagues.

Hensarling already has the backing of House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and outgoing Conference Chair Mike Pence (R-Ind.).

The Reviews Are In: Polling guru Nate Silver is up with his first batch of midterm polling reviews. The good: SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac. The bad: Rasmussen. Silver: "On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports -- which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News -- badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates. Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well." http://bit.ly/dtjVbY

As we continue to digest the election results, here are the latest vote totals in races that have yet to be officially called. The most recent call from the Associated Press is in Illinois, where Gov. Pat Quinn (D-Ill.) won a full term as governor.

In the Senate, Democratic Sen. Patty Murray appears to be in good shape in Washington state, as does Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) in Alaska, though there are still a significant number of ballots to be counted in both races.

On the House side, there are 10 races still yet to be called by the Associated Press. Democratic incumbents lead in six and trail in four. Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-N.C.) is challenging the results in an eleventh race, despite the AP call for his Republican opponent, Renee Ellmers.

And in gubernatorial races, Democrats are looking in good shape Connecticut despite some confusion over the vote count, and hold a narrow lead in Minnesota.

SENATE

Washington: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is leading Republican Dino Rossi by 27,426 votes (50.8 percent to 49.2 percent) with about 71 percent of the vote counted. She looks in strong shape to win another term, since much of the remaining ballots are in King County, the state's Democratic stronghold where she is leading by sizable margin.

Alaska: "Write in" ballots currently lead Republican Joe Miller by 13,439 votes (41 percent write-in, 34.3 percent for Miller). Democrat Scott McAdams is lagging well behind in third place, with 23.6 percent of the vote. Still to be counted are 26,306 absentee ballots and 10,645 questioned ballots.

Alaska will begin reviewing the write-in ballots next week, ahead of schedule, to determine how many of them were cast legally for Murkowski. If they were, she looks in strong shape to become the first senator to win a write-in campaign since Strom Thurmond in 1954.

GOVERNOR

Connecticut: Democrat Dan Malloy leads Republican Tom Foley by 6,240 votes in the latest AP tally, but both sides are claiming that they are ahead. Foley said Thursday that his own internal tabulations put him ahead, while Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz has yet to release an official tally.

The AP called the race on Wednesday for Malloy, then uncalled it. At issue appears to be a reporting snafu in New Haven, where the AP originally reported a far fewer votes in New Haven than were actually cast. Ten precincts in Bridgeport are still not reported. If Foley does close the gap to within 2,000 votes, which looks unlikely at this point, Connecticut would automatically conduct a recount.

Minnesota: Democrat Mark Dayton is leading Republican Tom Emmer by 8,775 votes. County canvassing boards now review the results and report to the state canvassing board by Nov. 23. If the election results end up within half a percent, it would trigger an automatic recount. The difference is currently exactly half a percent.

Fox News's Deputy Bureau Chief Bryan Boughton on Thursday sent a memo to his staff congratulating them for "stellar performance" on Election Night and announcing promotions.

"Fox News had an amazing political season leading up to our stellar performance on election night," Boughton writes in the memo obtained by Hotline On Call. "We averaged seven million viewers and put together comprehensive coverage throughout the day. Your work helped make this possible and you should be proud of your role in this amazing feat."

With the 2010 election cycle behind them, Boughton writes that Fox News needs to be "moving forward" to "focus on our next major goal 2012." He added that "it promises to be another amazing campaign to see who will reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave and a renewed battle for control of Congress. ... Some of the challenges will be the stories we cover others come as we continue to change the way Fox News operates."

Boughton notes that FNC will be "rebuilding" their Master Control Center in order to make it possible to "transition to a tapeless newsroom."

Boughton also announced a few staff promotions in the DC bureau.

Doug Rohrbeck, who is currently senior producer on "Special Report", moves up to the Executive Producer slot.

Dave Shott will now manage Special Events coverage and FNC's role in the pool reports.

Catherine Loper helms the newsroom team while Anita Siegfriedt jumps up to Senior White House producer of the White House unit.

And Peter Doocy, FNC anchor Steve Doocy's son, will joins the DC bureau's team of reporters.

Full memo after the jump.

While the Republican gains in the House and Senate are grabbing the most headlines, the most significant results on Tuesday came in state legislatures where Republicans wiped the floor with Democrats.

Republicans picked up 680 seats in state legislatures, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures -- the most in the modern era. To put that number in perspective: In the 1994 GOP wave, Republicans picked up 472 seats. The previous record was in the post-Watergate election of 1974, when Democrats picked up 628 seats.

The GOP gained majorities in at least 14 state house chambers. They now have unified control -- meaning both chambers -- of 26 state legislatures.

That control is a particularly bad sign for Democrats as they go into the redistricting process. If the GOP is effective in gerrymandering districts in many of these states, it could eventually lead to the GOP actually expanding its majority in 2012.

Republicans now hold the redistricting "trifecta" -- both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship -- in 15 states. They also control the Nebraska governorship and the unicameral legislature, taking the number up to 16. And in North Carolina -- probably the state most gerrymandered to benefit Democrats -- Republicans hold both chambers of the state legislature and the Democratic governor does not have veto power over redistricting proposals.

The Republican State Leadership Committee took the lead in the state legislature contests. Chris Jankowski, a spokesman for the committee, said they were very specific in where they used resources this year.

"These are not races that usually see the level of sophistication that we used," he said.

The news was not entirely bad for Democrats. They point to their holding on to the redistricting "trifecta" in eight states. (That number jumps to nine if Democrats hold onto the Colorado state House and 10 if you include Rhode Island, which just elected independent Lincoln Chafee as governor). That's more states than the Democrats controlled during the last redistricting battle in 2001.

The GOP holds the redistricting trifecta in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Utah, Texas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and Ohio - plus, as noted earlier, Nebraska and North Carolina.

Of those, South Carolina, Utah, Georgia and Texas are projected to gain seats after the census. Florida is also slated to gain, but the state just passed a ballot referendum seeking to take control of redistricting process away from the state legislature.

Ohio and Michigan are also important because they are projected to lose at least one seat, making the redistricting lines all the more important.

It's very early, but a new poll suggests that Pres. Obama starts his 2012 campaign trailing two potential Republican challengers.

The CNN/Opinion Research poll, released Thursday, shows that a day after the country delivered a crushing defeat to his party in the midterm elections, Obama needs to begin rebuilding his political standing if he wants to be successful in 2012.

Obama trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R). He holds leads over former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.).

The president trails Huckabee -- who the White House said in a New York Times story in October would be a formidable challenger -- by the biggest margin, 52 percent to 44 percent. Obama trails Romney by five points -- 50 percent to 45 percent.

Huckabee also leads the GOP field when Republicans were asked who they would like to be the nominee. Huckabee pulled 21 percent in that question to Romney's 20 percent, Palin's 14 percent and Gingrich's 12 percent.

Obama leads Palin by the biggest margin -- 52 percent to 44 percent. The poll also found that nearly have of respondents -- 49 percent -- have an unfavorable view of Palin.

The president led Gingrich narrowly -- 49 percent to 47 percent.

The CNN/Opinion Research poll surveyed 921 registered voters and was conducted Oct. 27 to 30. It had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is, as usual, making waves with her Facebook page on Thursday, posting a web video that declares victory for the candidates she endorsed this fall.

From a macro and shallow perspective, Palin had a strong record this year. She endorsed 64 candidates and, at this point, half have won (five races with Palin-backed Republicans are still undecided).

But a closer look at the video and Palin's actual campaign schedule in the closing weeks of the campaign undercuts those numbers. As Hotline On Call reported earlier this week, Palin only stumped in public for 13 candidates this year.

And a look at the results in those elections calls into question whether Palin had much of any impact on the election at the ground level. Palin held rallies for two Republicans in the final week of the campaign. Of those candidates, one lost in a landslide despite running in friendly Republican territory. The other appears to be headed for defeat in her home state.

"Across the country, every day Americans are standing up and they are speaking out," Palin says in the video. "And based on what I'm seeing, there is more than enough reason to have faith in America."

The video flashes maps of the country with presumably bulls eyes on the races where Palin made endorsements. Palin goes on to channel Ronald Reagan and declare that it's a "new morning" in America.

The video features footage of newly elected Republican contenders that Palin endorsed, including Sens.-elect Rand Paul (Ky.), Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Kelly Ayotte (N.H.). It also features Govs.-elect Nikki Haley (R-S.C.) and Susana Martinez (R-N.M.) and GOP Reps.-elect Sean Duffy (Wis.), Renee Ellmers (N.C.) and Tim Scott (S.C.).

Here's the rub: Of those eight candidates, Palin campaigned publicly for only half -- Rubio, Paul, Haley and Martinez. And those appearances either came during the primary season -- for Haley -- or very early in the general election -- for the rest.

In most of the other four -- like Ayotte's race in New Hampshire or Duffy's in Wisconsin -- a Palin appearance likely would have done more harm than good for the Republican candidates among the moderate electorate.

Palin's political action committee did not return phone calls.

Palin was virtually AWOL from the campaign trail in the weeks running up to the election. She appeared at only two rallies. One was for Republican John Raese, who suffered possibly the greatest defeat by a Republican candidate this cycle by losing the West Virginia Senate race to Gov. Joe Manchin by 10 points.

The other was for Republican Joe Miller in her home state, Alaska. Miller appears to be trailing Sen. Lisa Murkowski's write in campaign, though the "write-in" ballots have yet to officially be counted.

Of the 13 candidates Palin stumped for, two lost in primaries. Of the next 11, two lost in the general and one -- Miller -- appears headed for defeat.

Of the remaining eight, most cruised to election, including Rubio, Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R).

The one race where Palin appears to have had the most positive influence is Haley's -- where her endorsement before the primary helped propel her to victory.

Check out the video below.

Talking tough on immigration may have boosted GOP prospects in predominantly white states and districts, but it looks to have backfired in a big way in the West and the Southwest.

A shocking statistic from last night: Despite the massive Republican gains in the House, it looks like the GOP won't net a single seat from the West Coast and Pacific Rim states. And they underperformed dramatically in Hispanic-rich Southwest states, losing an Albuquerque House seat that looked awfully winnable, an Arizona seat where the GOP candidate ran aggressively on immigration and barely held onto a suburban Las Vegas seat that looked safely in their hands.

The exit polls tell a remarkable tale for why the GOP gains crested out West: Hispanic voters showed up in a big way and overwhelmingly cast the ballots for Democrats, according to exit polling. Latinos made up 18 percent of the electorate in Nevada, exactly the same number as in 2008, despite some polls suggesting Latinos weren't enthused about this election -- and voted 68 percent for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Republican Sharron Angle's crude imaging of Latinos as illegal law-breakers likely played a significant role.

In California, the turnout was even more incredible -- 22 percent of the electorate was Hispanic, a higher share than in 2008. And they broke as heavily for Democrats -- 64 percent backed Democrat Jerry Brown and 65 percent for Sen. Barbara Boxer (D).

The leading illegal immigration restrictionist on the ballot, former Rep. Tom Tancredo, only managed 37 percent of the vote in the Colorado gubernatorial contest -- despite becoming the de facto GOP nominee.

Pres. Obama, at his post-election press conference, primarily blamed the resounding defeat his party took on the souring economy.

But the Wall Street Journal reports a fascinating statistic today: of the 16 House seats that have the highest rates of foreclosure, 15 of them remained in Democratic hands. The lone exception was in the Las Vegas suburbs, where Rep.-elect Joe Heck (R) barely eked out a victory over Rep. Dina Titus (D) with only 48 percent of the vote, a surprisingly close result.

And in one of the most economically hard-hit districts in the country -- California Rep. Jim Costa's in the state's Central Valley, which sports near 30 percent unemployment -- it looks like the Democratic incumbent may well hang on.

Compare that to the proportion of House Democrats who switched their votes to support health care. Of the eight switchers, two retired, five lost (all resoundingly) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), in a safe Cleveland district, only won 53 percent of the vote. And of the Democrats who, like former Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), held out until the last minute to support it until anti-abortion language was inserted -- only Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) prevailed, and he won with the help of a libertarian candidate splitting the Republican vote.

Good Thursday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) steps into the spotlight; Wednesday's results; a closer look at how Harry Reid (D-Nev.) pulled off his stunner Tuesday; Watching Washington's results; the 2012 starting gun and more parsing of Tuesday's House results.

McConnell's Moment: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Thursday will step back from his previous remarks that Senate Republicans top priority is to keep Pres. Obama from winning a second term -- but not very far. In remarks at the Heritage Foundation, McConnell will say that Republicans can only accomplish their goals with a Republican in the White House.

"Over the past week, some have said it was indelicate of me to suggest that our top political priority over the next two years should be to deny Pres. Obama a second term in office," McConnell will say, according to prepared remarks. "But the fact is, if our primary legislative goals are to repeal and replace the health spending bill; to end the bailouts; cut spending; and shrink the size and scope of government, the only way to do all these things it is to put someone in the White House who won't veto any of these things. We can hope the President will start listening to the electorate after Tuesday's election. But we can't plan on it."

McConnell will also say that the White House faces a choice. "They can change course, or they can double down on a vision of government that the American people have roundly rejected," he'll say. "When the administration agrees with the American people, we will agree with the administration."

New Results: Democrats had a bad Tuesday, but all in all had a pretty good Wednesday. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) held on to win re-election in Colorado against Republican Ken Buck. In Oregon, Democrats retained the governorship, as former Gov. John Kitzhaber eked out a win against Republican former Portland Trailblazer Chris Dudley.

The one big exception for Democrats: Florida, where Democrat Alex Sink conceded to Republican businessman Rick Scott in one of the most targeted races in the country. http://bit.ly/bDWvi5

How Reid Won: A close look at exit poll data shows how Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid pulled off his stunner over Republican Sharron Angle. CNN's exit polls show that men and white voters broke for Angle by significant margins. Angle carried white voters by a 53 percent to 41 percent margin and men by a 48 percent to 46 percent margin. Reid made that up among women (53 percent), African Americans (78 percent), Latinos (68 percent) and Asians (79 percent). Even though white voters made up 72 percent of the vote and Reid only carried 41 percent of that block, those large margins among other ethnic groups carried him to victory. In terms of turnout, Reid benefited from higher than anticipated turnout among Latinos, which was crucial to his win. http://bit.ly/d4PmBL http://bit.ly/dpmZKg

Washington Watch: Democrats are also feeling very good about their chances of Sen. Patty Murray (D) hanging on in Washington. Murray currently leads Republican Dino Rossi by about a point in the all mail in ballot contest. Democrats are particularly buoyed by the fact that the ballots yet to be counted appear to be largely in King County, Murray's strong hold. In fact, total turnout in King County appears to be surpassing Democratic expectations. On Wednesday alone, 145,000 more ballots were released from King County. And of the 40 percent of the ballots left to be counted statewide, 55 percent are from counties where Murray currently leads. Democrats say that means that it'll be near impossible for Rossi to close the gap. http://bit.ly/bCZfd7

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor wasted little time after crushing Republican wins Tuesday night before announcing he will seek a promotion in the 112th Congress.

In a letter to his Republican colleagues, Cantor says he will run for majority leader and pledges to take the House in a new direction. Cantor's goal, he says, is to respond to an American electorate that voted against Democrats more than voting for Republicans.

"I have announced my intention to stand for election as Majority Leader because I am results oriented and I want to help lead that effort and bring about these changes," Cantor writes in the letter.

"Let us be under no illusion -- many of those who cast their vote for Republicans yesterday have their share of doubts about whether we are up to the task of governing; about whether congressional Republicans have learned our lesson," Cantor writes. "I harbor no such doubts. For the past two years, House Republicans dedicated ourselves to developing alternative solutions grounded in the time-tested principles of fiscal responsibility and small-government."

As majority leader, Cantor says he would help Republicans "drain the swamp rather than learning to swim with the alligators." But, he admits, his party isn't going to succeed all at once.

"We will not be able to roll back the leviathan overnight or balance the budget tomorrow or defeat terrorism once and for all next week, and people realize that," Cantor writes. "They understand how big the problems facing our country are, the obstacles that stand in our way, and the old, ingrained powers of Washington that will fight us every step of the way."

"We must not fall prey to the culture of Washington that exacerbates and creates problems. To put it simply, we must do the job we said we would do. We've talked the talk, now it is time to walk the walk," Cantor says.

Good Wednesday morning. Here's what's on the radar: Republicans deliver a Democratic bloodbath in the House; Democrats hold off the Republican tidal wave in the Senate; GOP picks up eight governorships to the Democrats' one; Harry Reid's stunner, the demise of the Blue Dogs; the surprises of the night; a Wisconsin washout and Pres. Obama set to respond to the election.

What We Know: At the time of this writing, Republicans have netted a whopping 60 seats in the House and hold narrow leads in a few more. That's five more seats than the Democrats picked up in the 2006 and 2008 wave elections combined.

In the Senate, Republicans picked up six seats in Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Illinois and Pennsylvania.

Democrats beat back the tide in the Senate contests in West Virginia, California and, in particular, Nevada -- where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) defeated Republican Sharron Angle. Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), is in good shape, holding a narrow lead with most of the remaining votes coming from Democratic strongholds in Boulder and Denver.

In governor's races, Republicans picked up nine state houses -- Ohio, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oklahoma, Kansas, Tennessee and Wyoming. Democrats picked up the governorship in California where former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) beat former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).

What We Don't Know: The Senate results in Colorado, Washington, Alaska for sure (at this point the "write in" candidate is leading) and a handful of House races, predominantly on the West Coast.

Several governor's races are still undecided, including Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Florida, Illinois, Minnesota and Oregon.

Reid's Stunner: Reid's win is particularly striking because it proved nearly every prognosticator wrong. How Reid pulled it off will be analyzed in the coming days, but it is worth pointing out that of the three GOP targeted "trophy" seats -- Nevada, Delaware and Illinois -- they only captured Pres. Obama's former seat in Illinois.

Blue Dog Demise: The fiscally conservative -- and predominantly southern -- Blue Dog Democrats were the group hit hardest by the GOP wave in the House. More than half of their 54-member caucus is gone. By the most recent count, 22 members were unseated on Tuesday and another six retired this year. The survivors? Look for Reps. Mike Ross (D-Ark.), Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) and Jim Matheson (D-Utah) to lead what's left of the caucus in the next Congress.

Below is a breakdown of notable results as they come in, both in statewide races and important House takeovers.

SENATE:

Indiana: Republican Dan Coats (R) is projected to pick up the seat vacated by Sen. Evan Bayh (D), CNN reports.

Kentucky: Republican Rand Paul (R) is projected to win over Democrat Jack Conway, according to multiple networks.

Vermont: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) is projected to win re-election, according to multiple networks.

South Carolina: Sen. Jim DeMint (R) is projected to win re-election, according to multiple networks.

Ohio: Republican Rob Portman is projected to defeat Democrat Lee Fisher, according to CNN. 

Florida: Republican Marco Rubio is projected to win, according to multiple networks.

Delaware: Democrat Chris Coons is projected to defeat Republican Christine O'Donnell, according to multiple networks. 

New Hampshire: Republican Kelly Ayotte is projected to beat Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes, according to multiple networks.

Connecticut: Democrat Richard Blumenthal is projected to defeat Republican Linda McMahon, according to multiple networks. 

Arkansas: Republican John Boozman is projected to defeat Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), according to multiple outlets. That's a GOP pickup. 

West Virginia: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is projected to defeat Republican John Raese (R). That's a Democratic hold.

North Dakota: Gov. John Hoeven (R) is projected to win the Senate seat over Democrat Tracy Potter, according to several news sources. That's a GOP pickup. 

Wisconsin: Republican Ron Johnson is projected to unseat Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, according to multiple outlets. That's another GOP pick up. 

Illinois: Republican Mark Kirk is projected to win the Senate race for Pres. Obama's former seat, according to the AP.

Pennsylvania: Republican Former Rep. Pat Toomey is projected to pick up the Pennsylvania Senate seat, according to the AP.

Nevada: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is projected to win re-election over Republican Sharron Angle, according to the AP.

GOVERNORS:

Tennessee: Republican Bill Haslam is projected to beat Democrat Mike McWherter, according to the AP. That's the GOP's first pick up in governor's races. 

Kansas: Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is projected to pick up the governorship for the GOP, according to multiple outlets. 

Oklahoma: Republican Rep. Mary Fallin is projected to pick up the governorship for the GOP, according to multiple outlets.

Pennsylvania: Republican Tom Corbett is projected to defeat Democrat Dan Onorato, according to multiple outlets. That's another GOP gubernatorial pick up.

Wyoming: Republican Matt Mead is projected to pick up the governorship for the GOP, according to multiple outlets. 

New Mexico: Republican Susana Martinez is projected to pick up the governorship for the GOP, according to multiple outlets. 

Wisconsin: Republican Scott Walker is projected to pick up the governorship for the GOP, according to multiple outlets. 

Ohio: Republican former Rep. John Kasich is projected to unseat Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, according to the AP.

Hawaii: Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) is projected to win the governorship, according to the AP. That's a pick up for the Democrats. 

HOUSE:

Republican Pick Ups: 63 (+60 net)

In the face of significant losses, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi issued a statement early Wednesday morning defending her leadership over the last four years, and offering spirited backing for the policies that have been dragging down many of her more-conservative Democratic colleagues tonight.

"Over the last four years, the Democratic Majority in the House took courageous action on behalf of America's middle class to create jobs and save the country from the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression," Pelosi said.

"The outcome of the election does not diminish the work we have done for the American people. We must all strive to find common ground to support the middle class, create jobs, reduce the deficit and move our nation forward."

The statement did not make any reference to current House Minority Leader John Boehner, the presumed Speaker-in-waiting.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) scored a surprisingly decisive victory over Republican Sharron Angle, despite holding low approval ratings and representing a state with the highest unemployment rate in the country.

Reid's victory is one of the rare Democratic bright spots of the night. The Angle campaign this morning put out a release this morning all but anticipating the defeat of the Democrats' Senate leader.

All the networks and the AP called the race only about two hours after polls closed in Nevada, with Reid jumping to a sizable lead in suburban Clark County (Las Vegas). With 41 percent of precincts reporting, Reid leads Angle 51 to 44 percent.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Robert Menendez (N.J.) said Reid persevered despite the barrage of negative attacks he faced from Republicans.

Angle, a Tea Party favorite, struggled on the campaign trail, making frequent gaffes. Her unstinting conservative voting record in the state legislature also proved to be potent fodder for Reid to use against her.

The big question to come is whether Reid will stay on as Senate Majority Leader now that Democrats have maintained control of the Senate despite sustaining losses. Reid's disapproval rating back home was well above 50 percent, and was directly tied to many of the president's policies.

Early indications are that he'd have the support of his Democratic colleagues if he chose to remain as leader.

"Politico was wrong, Huffington Post was wrong, hell, all the pundits were wrong. Harry Reid isn't just Dracula, he isn't just Lazarus, he's our Leader and our whole caucus is thrilled that he's unbreakable and unbeatable," Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) said, in a statement.

CNN's Mary Matalin showered likely incoming House Speaker John Boehner with praise, on CNN minutes ago: "He's awesome. I mean he is America. One of 12 kids, worked in his daddy's bar... what you see is what you get. And he will be able to run that place, like I said earlier, the likes of which we haven't seen since Tip O'Neill. He really is the real deal."

Doesn't sounds like there will be too much compromise with the Obama White House, if the latest comments from House Minority Whip Eric Cantor are any indication.

"I hope that we're able to put a repeal bill on the floor," Cantor said to CBS News, referring to the health care reform bill that passed earlier this year. "We've got to go back and give the American people what they want, which is lower costs."

ABC's Jake Tapper is indicating that the White House isn't viewing the election returns as a sign they need to change course.

"There's not going to be a major course correction," Tapper reported on ABC Tuesday night. "So far, this is not a tsunami. You have Democrats winning. It does not look as though Democrats are going to lose control of the Senate, in all likelihood, so I do not see evidence of any major course correction. They certainly have not talked about it in the White House. "

Here's the latest from the networks.

On MSNBC:
DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen said projection that GOP will take House is "a mistake."

West Virginia Sen.-elect Joe Manchin (D) on CNN: "We made tremendous strides as a state, and the reason we did that is because we trusted one another...But when I look at what challenges we have ahead of us in Washington, I know it's time to take that fight there."

MSNBC's Chris Matthews: "I think Manchin will be one of the Democratic stars coming out of tonight. West Virginia will be very important in the next presidential election."

On CNN:
RNC Chairman Michael Steele on House pickups: "I think we're going to see something in the 50's and 60's. My number's around 55, but what do I know? I'm just the chairman."

Steele on GOPers saying they'll win despite of him, rather than because of him: "Well, that's just foolishness. Look we provided the ground game ... and I'm sure (those candidates) used those RNC victory centers. ... I think all of that silly talk, I think all of the people who talk like that need to check themselves and focus on Republicans being unified and victorious tonight and everything else will take care of itself."

On MSNBC:
Steele, on the result the American people will feel from the GOP victory: "I don't know what the leadership is planning, but what I'm saying is the tone is gonna be different. The tone is gonna be much more tuned in to what the people have been saying."

Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.): on the GOP's top goal: "Let's extend those tax cuts, and we also have to repeal the health care bill. This isn't a political divide in this country, this truly is an ideological divide."

Kentucky Senator-elect Rand Paul (R) claimed a Tea Party mandate from his decisive victory over Attorney General Jack Conway (D), in his victory remarks Tuesday night.

"I have a message from the people of Kentucky, a message that is loud and clear and does not mince words: we've come to take our government back," Paul said. "Tonight, there's a Tea Party tidal wave, and we're sending a message to them. It's a message that I will carry with me on day 1 -- it's a message of fiscal sanity, it's a message of limited constitutional government and balanced budgets."

Paul leads Conway 55 percent to 42 percent, with 82 percent of precincts reporting.

Conway offered his congratulations to Paul in a downbeat concession speech, saying that "we all ought to wish him well" in the Senate.

Paul, the son of libertarian-minded congressman Ron Paul, will be the first father-son duo in Congress since Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.) served together.

Top Republican leaders in Washington will headline the national party's victory celebration during primetime tonight, while party leaders not associated with the Congressional conference will speak to the crowd earlier.

A Republican source emails Hotline On Call the schedule for the night. Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.), the vice chairman of the NRCC, will speak between 8:30 and 9:30 Eastern Time. RNC chairman Michael Steele and RGA chairman Haley Barbour will also get their turns that hour.

But later, when most Congressional results are expected to pour in, Congress takes over. Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, House Deputy Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), NRCC chair Pete Sessions and House GOP leader John Boehner will all speak between 9:30 and 11:30 PM.

Throughout the night, we'll be bringing you snippets of what the talking heads are saying on all the networks. Here's the first, early outlook.

On ABC:
Diane Sawyer: Will this be a referendum on the president?
George Stephanopoulos: Well it's starting to look like it, Diane, absolutely...38 percent of voters are coming out to say they oppose Obama's policies. That's 14 percent more than are coming out to support [him]. And we asked, do you think President Obama's proposals, policies, are hurting the country? A majority of Americans believe that President Obama's proposals are going to hurt the country in the long-term. [53% say hurt, v. 43% saying they don't]

On PBS:
Ray Suarez on turnout in Nevada.
Suarez: "Traffic was slow but steady in Nevada. But the early vote was exceptionally large. 400,000 people cast their vote early or by absentee. Democrats are saying the early voting favors them, Republicans say it's the other way around. In the early vote the unions were heavily involved, Latino civic groups were heavily involved. But both parties are spinning it their way. "

On MSNBC:
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.):
Van Hollen: "So far, it's clear the voters are proving a lot of the pundits wrong in terms of the Democratic turnout...Today, we're seeing a higher than expected turnout around the country. I know all the pundits have moved on and said it's over. The fact of the matter is, it's not. Yogi Berra said it best: it ain't over 'til it's over, and the fight is still going on all around the country right now."

We could be in for a West Coast waiting game to get a sense of which party controls the Senate -- and have little clarity for days after Election Day.

In Alaska, the expected swarm of write-in votes for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) means it could be weeks before anyone knows the winner of the three-way Senate race. If the number of write-in votes exceeds that of the two major-party candidates, there will be little clarity on who prevailed -- and the process of sifting through all the write-in ballots is expected to be time-consuming.

Most votes in Washington state are cast through the mail, and those received after the day of the election won't get counted until after Election Day. That means a close Senate race between Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Republican Dino Rossi may not be decided for days. Washington Secretary of State David Ammons told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer that he only expects about 60 percent of the ballots to be counted on Election Day.

And a campaign strategist for Republican California Senate hopeful Carly Fiorina said that she's anticipating about two million absentee ballots turned in today that won't be counted tonight, far more than the expected margin in the California gubernatorial and Senate contests.

If Republicans sweep toss-up races in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Nevada and Colorado, control of the Senate will likely be decided with those Pacific Coast contests - and could take days to resolve. What will be a long Election Night could easily get extended into an Election Week...

All that's left to do is get out the vote and count the ballots. As the first results come in, here's what to watch for:

-- The Canaries. Reps. Ben Chandler (D-KY), Joe Donnelly (D-IN) and Baron Hill (D-IN) all face the nation's earliest closing times. If all 3 go down, Republicans can start popping champagne. But if either of the Indiana Democrats survive, the GOP should stop counting chickens.

-- The Enthusiasm Gap. Keep an eye on Reps. Barney Frank (D-MA) Tom Perriello (D-VA) and Sanford Bishop (D-GA). If Frank wins in a blowout, labor turned on their base. If Perriello doesn't get stomped, President Obama fired up the troops. And if Bishop wins a surprisingly competitive race, African Americans re-engaged even without Obama on the ballot. Then again, if these races break the other way, it's an early sign that Dems just didn't care enough to vote.

-- The Credit Grab. Who made the big difference for the GOP? The RNC, the NRCC, the NRSC and the RGA all want you to know they deserve the credit. The RGA, which spent $69 million on governor races this year, is making the most aggressive, and compelling, case so far. Meanwhile, a fake White House official tweeted the obligatory invite to Democrats' circular firing squad tonight.

Stay with us tonight for an On Call live blog, an hour-by-hour what to watch guide and hourly Last Calls for the latest results. First polls close at 6 p.m., first Last Call at 7 p.m. Happy vote hunting.

No campaign surrogate has been more closely watched this election season than former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R). The media -- this website included -- has analyzed, and overanalyzed the success and failures of Palin's endorsed candidates to try to extrapolate signs of her political standing as she considers a 2012 presidential run.

But since primary season -- when Palin had a more robust campaign schedule -- the 2008 vice presidential contender has been remarkably absent from the campaign trail, choosing instead to only endorse candidates via Facebook and Twitter and stick to her TV hits on Fox News. Palin has made public stumping appearances in only 13 races, almost entirely in the primary season. That pales in comparison to, say, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), who has stumped for nearly 60 candidates this fall.

While Palin has made endorsements in nine active Senate races, until last week she had only done one general election rally -- for Marco Rubio (R) in Florida.

All of which makes Palin's rally for Alaska Republican contender Joe Miller last Thursday striking. By appearing at a large rally in her home state, Palin put her political capital on the line. If Miller loses to Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R) write-in campaign or Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) squeaks through, Palin stands to squander much of her political clout.

"If she loses, that one it is going to send a signal to everybody about her clout even her in her home state," said University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato.

Michael Carey, a columnist for the Anchorage Daily News noted Monday that Palin may not end up helping Miller.

"There is a large number of people [in Alaska] who have stopped listening to her and have moved on," Carey said on MSNBC Monday.

Calls to Palin's political action committee were not returned.

More broadly, Palin's political muscle is already being questioned in Republican circles. Some say Palin has become such a polarizing figure that Republicans will steer clear of her in the future. When Palin made a last minute decision to campaign for Republican John Raese (R) in West Virginia last weekend, some questions were raised about whether the hasty decision actually helped Raese since very few voters knew of Palin's appearance before she got there.

"The only reason you have her come out is to rally people," said Republican pollster Tyler Harber. "If she isn't interested in doing that, I think you'll find a lot of people who are unwilling to accept Palin's endorsement or help."

Good Tuesday morning and Happy Election Day. It's finally here. If we've done our job, you know what to watch today. Here's what's on our Election Day, lighthearted radar screen: Awkwardness (at best) or a fight (at worst) may break out in Nevada; the nexus of politics and baseball in California; ex-Mariners star Jay Buhner robocalls for Dino Rossi (R) in Washington and the NFL caucus.

Oh yeah, and it's supposed to snow in Alaska today.

Be sure to check back in on Hotline On Call tonight. We'll have the full results -- yes, all the way through the night -- and a live blog featuring Hotline and National Journal staff starting before polls close in Indiana and parts of Kentucky at 6 p.m.

Still Looking For What To Watch? Here are five seats where results will come in early that'll tell us if the wave is forming. None of them on their own are huge reaches for the GOP. But if they all break for Republicans, we -- and Republicans we talk to -- will know a large wave is coming.

Reps. Baron Hill (D) in Indiana's 9th, Jim Marshall (D) in Georgia's 8th, John Adler (D) in New Jersey's 3rd, Patrick Murphy in Pennsylvania's 8th and the open seat in West Virginia's 1st that was held by Alan Mollohan (D).

The sixth to watch: Massachusetts 10th, the seat vacated by Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt.

Media Planning: Check out how all of the networks are gearing up for the big night here: http://bit.ly/bxlWO5

This Could Get Awkward: Looks like Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) won't have Aria Hotel in Las Vegas to himself Tuesday night. National Journal's Lindsey Boerma reports that the Tea Party Express -- the group that has backed several conservative insurgent candidates including Republican Sharron Angle -- have also booked space in the hotel for their election night party.

"We chose the Aria Hotel specifically because it's where Harry Reid's campaign will be," Tea Party Express spokesman Levi Russell said. "We decided to go straight into the belly of the beast, just like we did when we kicked off the last tour in Searchlight, a mile or so from Harry Reid's house."

Let's hope a fight doesn't break out. http://bit.ly/dmiEyR

The Nexus Of Politics and Baseball: There is a connection between rooting for the San Francisco Giants and supporting the California Democratic ticket, according to Democratic pollster Tulchin Research.

Election Day will see an unprecedented amount of coverage for a midterm election with all broadcast and cable networks going live for most, if not all, of the night.

Out of the three broadcast networks, NBC will broadcast the most extensive live coverage of Election Night. Coverage begins at 6:30 p.m. with "Nightly News" followed by "Decision 2010" at 9 p.m. and will continue through the night, pre-empting "Tonight Show with Jay Leno" and "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon." Brian Williams will anchor along with "Meet the Press" moderator David Gregory and special correspondent Tom Brokaw.

ABC's "Vote 2010" will be anchored by "World News"'s Diane Sawyer and "GMA"'s George Stephanopoulos. ABC will air special reports at the top and bottom of each hour from 8:00 to 9:30 p.m., followed by a live 90-minute special with analysts Washington Post's George Will, ABC's Cokie Roberts, Democratic strategist Donna Brazile and National Journal's Matthew Dowd and Ron Brownstein. At 11:35 p.m., "Nightline" will pick up coverage with a special one hour edition.

Katie Couric anchors CBS' hour-long "Campaign 2010: Election Night" starting at 10 p.m. Couric picks up live coverage again at 1 a.m. until 2 a.m. Couric will be joined by "Face the Nation" moderator Bob Schieffer, senior political correspondent Jeff Greenfield and correspondent Nancy Cordes along with political analysts Dan Bartlett and Jamal Simmons.

Fox broadcast network will be anchored by Shepard Smith from 9 to 10 p.m. and then from midnight to 1 a.m.

Over on cable, NBC's sister channel MSNBC will carry wall-to-wall coverage from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. and will continue into Wednesday with "Morning Joe" live with an in-studio audience from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. Coverage will be led by the net's primetime hosts Keith Olbermann, Chris Matthews, Rachel Maddow, Lawrence O'Donnell and Washington Post's Eugene Robinson. Political Director Chuck Todd will conduct live results analysis for both NBC and MSNBC while Lester Holt reports on exit polls. Ed Schultz reports live from Las Vegas, Nev.

When polls close Tuesday, Republicans are overwhelmingly expected to win enough seats to take back the House. Just two years ago, the GOP was all but left for dead. How did Democrats squander the major electoral gains they achieved and snatch defeat out of the jaws of long-term victory?

The answer, both Democratic and Republican pollsters agree, is two-fold: Democrats over-promised on their first major initiative, then overreached on their most defining legislative effort. That combination has doomed Democrats to a disastrous election as voters take out a mix of frustration and anger on the party in charge.

It all began with disappointment. Just weeks after Pres. Obama was inaugurated, Democrats passed a massive $787 billion economic stimulus package, a bill that was supposed to revitalize the economy and halt the rapidly-rising unemployment rate.

The package, a mix of government spending and tax cuts, had some success. It raised the gross domestic product by nearly 3 percent; it lowered unemployment by up to 1.8 percentage points; and it created or saved between 2 million and 4.8 million jobs, all according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

But the package either spent too much, according to Republicans, or didn't go far enough, as some liberals said. Unemployment skyrocketed past 10 percent, and voters are so worried about government spending that the deficit now ranks as one of their top concerns.

The worst part is that voters don't believe the stimulus plan has worked, despite Democratic efforts to highlight local projects that are creating jobs, either through news events or through actual signs posted at ubiquitous construction sites around the nation.

Just 42 percent of Americans, including 40 percent of independents, believe the stimulus bill was a good thing for the country, according to a Newsweek poll released Oct. 21. An ABC News/Washington Post poll, released Oct. 3, showed just 29 percent of national adults believe the money allocated in the stimulus bill has been spent well, while 68 percent think money has been wasted. The bill left the impression with independent voters, according to surveys taken by Republican pollsters and provided to Hotline On Call, that a member voting for it was little more than a rubber stamp for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Not a single House Republican voted for the stimulus package, and just three Senate Republicans -- one of whom, Arlen Specter, later became a Democrat -- voted for it. Republicans, therefore, were able to characterize the bill as belonging to Democrats, giving the majority full credit if it succeeded, and full responsibility if it failed.

Not to be missed today: House Race Hotline Editor Tim Sahd's final rankings of which districts are most likely to flip on Tuesday.

The final rankings include 90 competitive races -- a sign of how large the playing field is. Which district is number 90? Rhode Island's 1st District, the seat vacated by Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D).

Sahd writes:

With Election Day just hours away, the fight for control continues to look like a very lopsided affair. Republicans are heavily favored to pick up the chamber, and they look to be in position to win upwards of 50 seats.

Check out the full list here.

There has been plenty of discussion this cycle about the differing campaign strategies between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have sought to nationalize their races while Democrats have insisted that by sticking to local issues, some of their members will be able to withstand historical midterm headwinds.

It still remains to be seen how many seats the GOP picks up on Tuesday, but a bevy of new polls underscore that this election is being fought squarely on consequential, national issues (the economy, stimulus, health care) and the policies of the Obama administration. And, most concerning for Democrats, the polls suggest a wave election that could sweep up members who, even late in the election cycle, believed they were likely to win.

There is plenty of respected poll data suggesting this has become a nationalized election. A Gallup survey conducted between October 28 to 31 found that a sizable plurality of Americans -- 41 percent -- said that national issues have the biggest influence on their vote. Similarly, a Pew Research Center survey released Sunday found that 35 percent of likely voters said national issues are having the most influence on them -- the highest percentage for a midterm election in more than 10 years. (The next closest margin in a Pew survey -- 34 percent -- came in 2006, another nationalized wave election that swept Democrats to congressional majorities.)

And even though some pundits have hedged their bets on what turnout tomorrow will look like, we already have a pretty good sense of the who will be showing up at the polls. Both the Pew Research survey and Gallup show there's a massive enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, which are fueling the size of the wave.

"Fully 70 percent of Republicans have given a lot of thought to this election, the highest figure recorded among either Republicans or Democrats over the past five midterm election cycles," the Pew Research Center wrote. "And the differential between Republicans and Democrats is larger than ever previously recorded."

Similarly, Gallup found that the GOP enjoys a whopping 15 percent advantage among likely voters -- 55 percent to 40 percent. Gallup also found that 75 percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican were 'absolutely certain' they would vote, compared to 68 percent of Democrats.

"While these figures are not the only indicator of relative turnout strength," Gallup wrote, "the record-high seven-point gap between the parties is strongly indicative of a relative surge in GOP turnout."

This goes a long way toward explaining why Democrats have been privately pessimistic about some races, despite their candidates running tied in polls. It also underscores why Senate races in Colorado, Washington and even California are looking more favorable for Republicans than some polls would suggest. If a Democratic incumbent is tied or currently behind -- like Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) or Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), chances are they could lose by at least several points, if the Gallup/Pew turnout gap is accurate.

The Cook Political Report put four more incumbent House Democrats on notice Monday -- adding them to its very large Toss Up category.

Cook has moved Democratic Reps. Chellie Pingree (Maine), Jim Oberstar (Minn.), Mike McIntyre (N.C.) and Rick Boucher (Va.) into the toss up column. It has also moved Rep. Michael Michaud (D-Maine) from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat.

These ratings changes show the rapidly widening play field for the GOP. Michaud was well off anyone's radar screen two weeks ago, as was Pingree.

The Cook Political Report has also moved several Democrats from Toss Up to Lean Republican, a sign that their chances on Tuesday are slim. They include Reps. Frank Kratovil (Md.), Dina Titus (Nev.), Harry Teague (N.M.).

Check out the full lists from the Report here

ME-01 Pingree Lean D to Toss Up
MN-08 Oberstar Lean D to Toss Up
NC-07 McIntyre Lean D to Toss Up
VA-09 Boucher Lean D to Toss Up

ME-02 Michaud Likely D to Lean D

MD-01 Kratovil Toss Up to Lean R
NV-03 Titus Toss Up to Lean R
NM-02 Teague Toss Up to Lean R

Want a surefire sign that Florida Republican Senate contender Marco Rubio is already a major force in Republican politics? Check out how many media outlets have requested credentials for his election night party.

The Miami Herald's Beth Reinhard reports that 232 outlets want to come to Rubio's election night bash, which will be held at the Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables, Fla.

Among them: NBC, ABC, FOX, CNN, the BBC, Univision, NPR, Al Arabiya and 75 members of the foreign press. And surely there will be some chatter from those outlets that he could be on the 2012 presidential ticket...

Congress will see one of its biggest shifts in personnel after Tuesday's votes. The following candidates in the 2010 election have a nearly unobstructed path to victory after winning primaries in districts that are either solidly Republican or Democratic. National Journal will profile all of the likely new members of Congress and add to this total on election night.

View a state-by-state list of potential Congressional newcomers.

House Minority Leader and potential Speaker to be John Boehner (R-Ohio) gave big to the National Republican Congressional Committee in October in an effort to boost the committee's efforts to take back the House.

In sum, Boehner gave $3 million the NRCC, party sources tell Hotline On Call. That breaks down to $1.9 million from his own re-election fund and $1.1 million from the Boehner for Speaker committee that was former earlier this year.

The transfers show that Boehner, who has always been an effective fundraiser, has been particularly successful this year in marshaling resources to pave his way to the Speaker's gavel.

In a statement, NRCC communications director Ken Spain expressed NRCC Chair Pete Sessions' (R-Texas) gratitude.

"Chairman Sessions is grateful for everything Leader Boehner has done on behalf of the NRCC and House Republicans in our effort to win the majority this cycle," Spain said. "He has led by example."

Boehner has given the NRCC $3.7 million over the course of the cycle from his re-election committee, Friends of John Boehner.

The Boehner for Speaker committee was set up as a joint fundraising committee with the NRCC back in August. It has been effective at raking in money. In the third quarter, the committee raised $1.9 million.

The transfers to the NRCC helped the committee report raising $16 million in October, a one-month record for the committee.

Good Monday morning. One day to go! Here is what is on the radar today: The final ominous signs for Democrats; Republicans, however, continue to face a a brand problem; DCCC hauls in $17.6 million; Barney Frank's (D-Mass.) spooky ad; and Frank Caprio apologizes, finally.

The Final Ominous Signs For Dems: The final crush of polls came in over the weekend and nearly all of them bore ominous signs for Democrats. The Pew Research Center's national survey boils it down: Likely voters prefer Republicans over Democrats on the generic ballot by a six-point margin, 48 percent to 42 percent. That signifies a "substantial engagement advantage," since registered voters actually prefer Democrats by a 44 percent to 43 percent margin. "This represents one of the largest gaps in preferences between all voters and likely voters ever recorded in Pew Research Center surveys," the Pew survey says. "This is more a consequence of unusually high engagement among Republicans than disengagement among Democrats."

That suggests that Democrats, despite their efforts in the final weeks of campaign, have not closed the enthusiasm gap.

The numbers are even worse for Democrats in the last Gallup poll. Among likely voters, 55 percent prefer a Republican candidate with only 40 percent preferring Democrats. Gallup: "This year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations." http://bit.ly/c4yrBs, http://bit.ly/9HBZ61

Not Exactly Mandate Numbers: Even though the GOP appears to be heading toward big wins on Tuesday night, their brand still isn't particularly strong. In the new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, only 34 percent had a positive view of the GOP, while 41 percent had a negative view. http://bit.ly/d9h7jq

Big Haul For The DCCC: In spite of those poll numbers, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is reporting a strong October fundraising haul. The DCCC raised $17.6 million for the month, according to party sources.

The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $16 million, also a record for the GOP committee.

It is worth nothing that the difference between the two committees' hauls is the Democratic National Committee's $1.8 million transfer to the DCCC a couple weeks ago. http://bit.ly/9wLzGv, http://bit.ly/cbgW1P

Poll Tracker: A slew of polls were released over the weekend -- and most were discouraging for Democrats. Most troubling is on the Senate side: PPP shows Dino Rossi taking the lead over Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Republican Carly Fiorina is closing in on Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) expanded his lead over Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois.

Good news for Democrats: Colorado is shaping up to be a barnburner, with Republican Ken Buck holding just a one-point lead in the new PPP poll, well within the margin of error.

Senate: Dino Rossi (R) 50 percent, Patty Murray (D) 48 percent in Washington (PPP)* Barbara Boxer (D) 50 percent, Carly Fiorina (R) 46 percent (PPP)*; Mark Kirk (R) 46 percent, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42 percent in Illinois (PPP)*; Pat Toomey (R) 50 percent, Joe Sestak (D) 45 percent in Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac); Ken Buck (R) 49 percent, Michael Bennet (D) 48 percent in Colorado (PPP)*.

Governor: John Kasich (R) 47 percent, Ted Strickland (D) 46 percent in Ohio (Quinnipiac); Alex Sink (D) 44 percent, Rick Scott (R) 43 percent in Florida (Quinnipiac); Tom Foley (R) 49 percent, Dan Malloy (D) 47 percent in Connecticut (PPP)*; Tom Emmer (R) 40 percent, Mark Dayton (D) 43 percent, Tom Horner (I), 15 percent in Minnesota (PPP)*; Paul LePage (R) 40 percent, Libby Mitchell (D) 21 percent, Eliot Cutler (I) 21 percent in Maine (Critical Insights).

House: Chip Cravaack (R) 46 percent, Rep. Jim Oberstar (D) 47 percent in Minnesota's 8th (SurveyUSA)*; Joe Heck (R) 53 percent, Rep. Dina Titus (D) 43 percent in Nevada's 3rd District (Mason-Dixon).
*SurveyUSA, along with PPP, are IVR polls.

Just Sayin': If Heck ends up winning by 10 in a district that includes part of the very competitive Clark county in Nevada, it's very hard to see how Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) wins his re-election bid.

Barney's Spooky Ad: Keeping with the Halloween spirit, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) aired a spooky radio ad over the weekend that targeted his Republican challenger, Sean Bielat. Bielat is giving Frank that toughest race he has had in at least 10 years.

"Hear that? Are you scared?" the ad says as howling at the moon plays. "It's Halloween and Sean Bielat is going around Barney Frank's district and putting bizarre flyers into people's mailboxes. Bielat's making wild charges because he's up against Barney's very strong record."