All Politics Is National
There has been plenty of discussion this cycle about the differing campaign strategies between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have sought to nationalize their races while Democrats have insisted that by sticking to local issues, some of their members will be able to withstand historical midterm headwinds.
It still remains to be seen how many seats the GOP picks up on Tuesday, but a bevy of new polls underscore that this election is being fought squarely on consequential, national issues (the economy, stimulus, health care) and the policies of the Obama administration. And, most concerning for Democrats, the polls suggest a wave election that could sweep up members who, even late in the election cycle, believed they were likely to win.
There is plenty of respected poll data suggesting this has become a nationalized election. A Gallup survey conducted between October 28 to 31 found that a sizable plurality of Americans -- 41 percent -- said that national issues have the biggest influence on their vote. Similarly, a Pew Research Center survey released Sunday found that 35 percent of likely voters said national issues are having the most influence on them -- the highest percentage for a midterm election in more than 10 years. (The next closest margin in a Pew survey -- 34 percent -- came in 2006, another nationalized wave election that swept Democrats to congressional majorities.)
And even though some pundits have hedged their bets on what turnout tomorrow will look like, we already have a pretty good sense of the who will be showing up at the polls. Both the Pew Research survey and Gallup show there's a massive enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, which are fueling the size of the wave.
"Fully 70 percent of Republicans have given a lot of thought to this election, the highest figure recorded among either Republicans or Democrats over the past five midterm election cycles," the Pew Research Center wrote. "And the differential between Republicans and Democrats is larger than ever previously recorded."
Similarly, Gallup found that the GOP enjoys a whopping 15 percent advantage among likely voters -- 55 percent to 40 percent. Gallup also found that 75 percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican were 'absolutely certain' they would vote, compared to 68 percent of Democrats.
"While these figures are not the only indicator of relative turnout strength," Gallup wrote, "the record-high seven-point gap between the parties is strongly indicative of a relative surge in GOP turnout."
This goes a long way toward explaining why Democrats have been privately pessimistic about some races, despite their candidates running tied in polls. It also underscores why Senate races in Colorado, Washington and even California are looking more favorable for Republicans than some polls would suggest. If a Democratic incumbent is tied or currently behind -- like Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) or Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), chances are they could lose by at least several points, if the Gallup/Pew turnout gap is accurate.
Polling guru Nate Silver reinforced this point on Monday, suggesting that a lot of the statewide public polling is tailored to 2006 and 2008 turnout patterns - which would skew the number in favor of Democrats significantly.
"It's also conceivable that some likely voter models based on past voting histories are overrating the propensity of Democrats to vote," Silver wrote.
"If likely voter models are benchmarked to 2006 and 2008 patterns, therefore, they could underestimate the turnout gap, giving too much credit to Democrats who voted in 2006 or 2008 but who don't ordinarily."
Silver now predicts that Democrats lose 53 seats in the House.
So who are the Democrats who could be vulnerable if the GOP wave gathers full steam on Tuesday? The Cook Political Report on Monday put four more incumbent Democrats -- most of whom weren't considered vulnerable until very recently -- into its Toss Up column: Reps. Chellie Pingree (Maine), Mike McIntyre (N.C), Jim Oberstar (Minn.) and Rich Boucher (Va.). The Report also moved Rep. Mike Michaud (D-Maine) from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat.
Other possible seats that could be vulnerable to a big wave include the open Rhode Island seat vacated by Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D) as well Reps. Solomon Ortiz (D-Texas), Bob Etheridge (N.C.), Maurice Hincey (N.Y.), David Loebsack (Iowa) and Bruce Braley (Iowa). Even Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) is facing a difficult challenge and is under 50 percent in recent polling.
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