December 2010

Welcome back to The Hotline's "Year In Review" features. So far, we've brought you the Year In Scandals, the Year In Upsets, the Year In Surprise Stars, the Year In Media and the Year In Forgettable Candidates.

We now turn to the highlights of the 2010 cycle: The best campaigns. From candidates who overcame what appeared to be insurmountable odds to ones who burst onto the political scene seemingly from nowhere, 2010 was full of campaigns to remember. Here's a look at the ones that stood out to us.

Any discussion of the top campaigns of the cycle has to begin with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. At the beginning of the year, there were simply too many reasons why the Nevada Democrat could -- and should -- lose: sky-high unemployment in his state, a Republican atmosphere and pitiful poll numbers. Reid got a break with Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle emerged from the Republican primary, but he still appeared to be in deep trouble. Reid had a particularly poor debate performance, polls in the weeks leading up to Election Day showed Reid down four points and virtually every prognosticator -- with the exception of Nevada politics guru Jon Ralston -- said Reid was done. But Reid's campaign proved all the naysayers wrong on Election Day, and the Democrat returned to the Senate.

The writing also looked on the wall for Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski. Murkowski lost the Republican primary in shocking fashion to attorney Joe Miller, who, like Angle, was backed by the Tea Party Express. But Murkowski didn't back down, launching a write-in campaign that appeared to be a long-shot. Along the way, Miller had several missteps while Murkowski used clever ads and campaign tactics to make sure voters knew how to spell her name. Murkowski quickly claimed an insurmountable lead on Election Day and made Miller look foolish as he continued to press his case in court despite lacking a path to victory. And along the way Murkowski earned newfound independence from the Republican Party, something she has displayed since returning to Washington.

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin's (D) Senate campaign is best described as a roller coaster. Because of his sky high popularity, Manchin entered the race for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D) seat as the frontrunner by a mile. But Republican John Raese used his millions to effectively tie Manchin to Pres. Obama, who is very unpopular in West Virginia. Manchin righted the ship, however, with a powerful ad that showed him firing a rifle at cap-and-trade energy legislation -- a move that demonstrated his independence from the Democratic Party. Manchin went on to win by double digits but appears to still be riding a roller coaster of sorts. He recently had to apologize for skipping some of his first votes as a senator.

As attention turns to the 112th Congress -- and the 2012 cycle -- the political ramifications of the sprint to close the 111th Congress are becoming clear. Several members of the 111th Congress may find themselves in competitive Senate races in 2012 and an analysis of their voting decisions during the lame duck session offers a few clues about what is in store for some of 2012's marquee contests.

The debate over Pres. Obama's compromise on the extension of the Bush tax cuts, a central focus of the session, shed some light on the 2012 Nevada Senate race. Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) is one of the few Senate Republicans up for re-election in 2012 thought to be vulnerable, and he may find himself being challenged by formidable opponents from both parties.

Nevada Rep. Shelley Berkley (D), a possible Ensign challenger, was an ardent and vocal supporter of the tax cut compromise, splitting with many of her colleagues in the Democratic caucus. While Berkley denied that a possible Senate run was part of her calculus, her decision to stake out ground in the middle cannot be ignored, especially considering her liberal voting record. Making inroads with moderates would be necessity for Berkley in a statewide contest and while it is too early to say what her political future holds, her votes early in the 112th Congress are certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Meanwhile, Ensign voted against the tax cut compromise while Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.), who may challenge Ensign in the Republican primary, supported the measure. The divergence may emerge point of contention, should the two find themselves in a primary battle.

Earmarks may also become an issue in a potential primary. While both Ensign and Heller opposed the now defunct omnibus spending bill, Ensign's request of $85 million in earmarks contrasts with Heller, who requested none.

Welcome back to The Hotline's "Year In Review" features. So far, we've brought you the Year In Scandals, the Year In Upsets, the Year In Surprise Stars and the Year In Media.

We now turn to a group of more disappointing contenders -- the most Forgettable Candidates and campaigns of 2010. These spanned the country this year and in most cases, they were highly touted recruits -- Democrat and Republican alike -- who never got their campaigns going.

Think anyone, for example, will remember Tom Emmer? The Republican Minnesota gubernatorial contender couldn't have asked for a better opponent than former Democrat Mark Dayton. Dayton, a generally lackluster retail politician known for his one term in the Senate, wasn't the preferred candidate of most Democrats. But Emmer -- a Tea Party favorite -- proved to be too far to the right for Minnesota and wasn't helped by Independence Party contender Tom Horner. The race was too close to call on Election Day, but Emmer eventually conceded after a month-long hand recount and legal challenges showed he had no chance to overtaking Dayton.

If Emmer got his preferred opponent, so too did Democrat Alex Sink in the Florida governor's race. Attorney General Bill McCollum was most Republicans' preferred nominee, but he lost to businessman Rick Scott (R) in the primary after Scott poured millions into the race. Scott's past business dealings led Democrats to dub him the "Madoff of Medicare" -- something that you'd think would be pretty damaging in a state with as large a senior citizen population as Florida. But Sink had plenty of her own missteps, including apparently cheating during a debate. In the end, Scott and his millions won in what was a major blow to Democrats.

People will remember outgoing Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth's 2010 Senate campaign -- but not in a good way. Getting Ellsworth to run for retiring Sen. Evan Bayh's (D) seat was considered a major recruiting accomplishment for Democrats. But that was just about the only bright spot for Ellsworth, who struggled to close Republican former Sen. Dan Coats's double-digit lead. Ellsworth may return, however; his name is being floated as a potential 2012 gubernatorial or Senate contender.

Updated with new names, 10:14 a.m., December 29

More than one-third of Republican National Committee members have declared their support for one of the six contenders seeking the chairmanship, and with just over two weeks to go the race remains wide open.

So far, at least 70 committee members have publicly said they back a candidate. We consider an endorsement either a comment in a publication or a release from a candidate's campaign. Missing any names? Email us and let us know.

The Hotline's latest RNC whip count:

REINCE PRIEBUS (24)
Linda Ackerman, California national committeewoman
Mark Amodei, Nevada Party chairman
Henry Barbour, Mississippi national committeeman
Sandy Boehler, North Dakota national committeewoman
Jim Bopp, Indiana national committeeman
Pat Brady, Illinois Party chair
Mary Buestrin, Wisconsin national committeewoman
James Dunn, Oklahoma national committeeman
Sharon Giese, Arizona national committeewoman
Curly Haugland, North Dakota national committeeman
Mark Hillman, Colorado national committeeman
Bruce Hough, Utah national committeeman
Steve King, Wisconsin national committeeman
Bob List, Nevada national committeeman
Jeanne Luckey, Mississippi national committeewoman
Matt Pinnell, Oklahoma Party chair
Alec Poitevint, Georgia national committeeman
Reince Priebus, Wisconsin Party chair
Pete Ricketts, Nebraska national committeeman
Steve Scheffler, Iowa national committeeman
Shawn Steel, California national committeeman
Stan Stein, North Dakota Party chair
Tony Sutton, Minnesota Party chair
Brad White, Mississippi Party chair

MICHAEL STEELE (15)
Peter Ada, Guam national committeeman
John Frey, Connecticut national committeeman
Holly Hughes, Michigan national committeewoman
Mary Jean Jensen, South Dakota national committeewoman
Robert Kabel, District of Columbia Party chair
Pat Longo, Connecticut national committeewoman
Lilliana Belardo de O'Neal, USVI committeewoman
Louis Pope, Maryland national committeeman
Holland Redfield, USVI national committeeman
Pat Rogers, New Mexico national committeeman
Herbert Schoenbohm, USVI Party chair
Norm Semanko, Idaho Party chair
Joyce Terhes, Maryland national committeewoman
Bob Tiernan, Oregan Party chair
Betsy Werronen, District of Columbia national committeewoman

SAUL ANUZIS (11)
Saul Anuzis, Michigan national committeeman
Morton Blackwell, Virginia national committeeman
Gio Cicione, Rhode Island Party chair
Bill Crocker, Texas national committeeman
Mark Fahleson, Nebraska Party chair
Dana Randall, South Dakota national committeeman
Tom Ross, Delaware Republican Party chair
Heidi Smith, Nevada national committeewoman
Mike Stuart, West Virginia Party chair
Borah Van Dormolen, Texas national committeewoman
Dick Wadhams, Colorado Republican Party chair

ANN WAGNER (11)
Lance Beshore, Missouri national committeeman
David Cole, Missouri Party chair
Bettye Fine Collins, Alabama national committeewoman
Chris Devaney, Tennessee Party chair
Ann Dickinson, Missouri national committeewoman
Donna Lou Gosney, West Virginia national committeewoman
Peggy Lambert, Tennessee national committeewoman
Jim Reed, West Virginia national committeeman
Randy Ruedrich, Alaska Party chair
John Ryder, Tennessee national committeeman
Ruth Ulrich, Louisiana national committeewoman

MARIA CINO (6)
Evie Axdahl, Minnesota national committeewoman
Ed Cox, New York Party chair
Jo Ann Davidson, Ohio national committeewoman
Kevin DeWine, Ohio Party chair
Ada Fisher, North Carolina national committeewoman
Priscilla Rakestraw, Delaware national committeewoman

GENTRY COLLINS (3)
Chris Healy, Connecticut Party chair
Matt Strawn, Iowa Party chair
Tom Fetzer, North Carolina Party chair

UNDECLARED (98)

The snowstorm that shut down the East Coast from the Delmarva Peninsula to Maine may have missed Washington, but two elected officials who could have D.C. in their sights have been buried under a blizzard of bad press for their handling of the Nor'easter.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) and New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I) both have been mentioned as possible presidential contenders in 2012, despite their numerous denials. But both now find themselves on the defensive over their responses to the Boxing Day Blizzard.

In Christie's case, it's simply a matter of showing up. Christie and his family left Sunday for a vacation at Disney World in Orlando, Fla., as the storm that brought nearly 32 inches of snow to densely-populated Elizabeth, N.J., was bearing down on the state.

Adding to Christie's plight, the state's Lieutenant Governor, former Monmouth Co. Sheriff Kim Guadagno (R), is also on vacation, leaving the Garden State in the hands of state Senate Pres. Stephen Sweeney (D) and leading to an avalanche of criticism for the Christie administration.

Guadagno is the first lieutenant governor in the state's history; the position was created following a 2005 initiative aimed to prevent this very situation. Sweeney has instructed Christie's chief of staff and chief counsel to prepare applications for FEMA assistance.

Meanwhile across the Hudson, Bloomberg is asking city residents for patience after the storm slowed essential services down to a halt. A day after becoming testy with WCBS-TV's Marcia Kramer while defending the city's response, Bloomberg appeared slightly more contrite on Tuesday, telling New Yorkers, "I'm angry, too."

"We won't get to everybody every time," Bloomberg said, according to the New York Daily News. "Yelling about it and complaining doesn't help."

More than one-third of Republican National Committee members have declared their support for one of the six contenders seeking the chairmanship, and with just over two weeks to go the race remains wide open.

The big movers over the weekend: Former RNC co-chairman Ann Wagner, who picked up support from the West Virginia delegation, and former Bush administration official Maria Cino, who announced her first public endorsements. Those nods came from several highly-regarded voters who have served on the committee for years.

So far, at least 64 committee members have publicly said they back a candidate. We consider an endorsement either a comment in a publication or a release from a candidate's campaign. Missing any names? Email us and let us know.

The Hotline's latest RNC whip count:

REINCE PRIEBUS (22)
Linda Ackerman, California national committeewoman
Henry Barbour, Mississippi national committeeman
Sandy Boehler, North Dakota national committeewoman
Jim Bopp, Indiana national committeeman
Pat Brady, Illinois Party chair
Mary Buestrin, Wisconsin national committeewoman
James Dunn, Oklahoma national committeeman
Sharon Giese, Arizona national committeewoman
Curly Haugland, North Dakota national committeeman
Mark Hillman, Colorado national committeeman
Bruce Hough, Utah national committeeman
Steve King, Wisconsin national committeeman
Jeanne Luckey, Mississippi national committeewoman
Matt Pinnell, Oklahoma Party chair
Alec Poitevint, Georgia national committeeman
Reince Priebus, Wisconsin Party chair
Pete Ricketts, Nebraska national committeeman
Steve Scheffler, Iowa national committeeman
Shawn Steel, California national committeeman
Stan Stein, North Dakota Party chair
Tony Sutton, Minnesota Party chair
Brad White, Mississippi Party chair

MICHAEL STEELE (12)
Peter Ada, Guam national committeeman
John Frey, Connecticut national committeeman
Holly Hughes, Michigan national committeewoman
Robert Kabel, District of Columbia Party chair
Lilliana Belardo de O'Neal, USVI committeewoman
Holland Redfield, USVI national committeeman
Pat Rogers, New Mexico national committeeman
Herbert Schoenbohm, USVI Party chair
Norm Semanko, Idaho Party chair
Joyce Terhes, Maryland national committeewoman
Bob Tiernan, Oregan Party chair
Betsy Werronen, District of Columbia national committeewoman

SAUL ANUZIS (11)
Saul Anuzis, Michigan national committeeman
Morton Blackwell, Virginia national committeeman
Gio Cicione, Rhode Island Party chair
Bill Crocker, Texas national committeeman
Bora Van Dormolen, Texas national committeewoman
Mark Fahleson, Nebraska Party chair
Dana Randall, South Dakota national committeeman
Tom Ross, Delaware Republican Party chair
Heidi Smith, Nevada national committeewoman
Mike Stuart, West Virginia Party chair
Dick Wadhams, Colorado Republican Party chair

ANN WAGNER (10)
Lance Beshore, Missouri national committeeman
David Cole, Missouri Party chair
Bettye Fine Collins, Alabama national committeewoman
Chris Devaney, Tennessee Party chair
Ann Dickinson, Missouri national committeewoman
Donna Lou Gosney, West Virginia national committeewoman
Peggy Lambert, Tennessee national committeewoman
Jim Reed, West Virginia national committeeman
Randy Ruedrich, Alaska Party chair
John Ryder, Tennessee national committeeman

MARIA CINO (6)
Evie Axdahl, Minnesota national committeewoman
Ed Cox, New York Party chair
Jo Ann Davidson, Ohio national committeewoman
Kevin DeWine, Ohio Party chair
Ada Fisher, North Carolina national committeewoman
Priscilla Rakestraw, Delaware national committeewoman

GENTRY COLLINS (3)
Chris Healy, Connecticut Party chair
Matt Strawn, Iowa Party chair
Tom Fetzer, North Carolina Party chair

UNDECLARED (104)

Welcome back to The Hotline's "Year In Review." So far, we've brought you the Year In Scandals, the Year In Upsets and the Year In Surprise Stars.

We now turn to the media stories that dominated 2010. We learned that TV is a powerful medium that can create a national debate or even cause someone their job. But in CNN's case, TV can only be a powerful medium if people tune in. The existence of a network that seemingly refuses to go in the direction of partisan talking points, is a refresher and a reason why the Comcast-NBCU merger frightens a few people. The availability of different networks and outlets is essential for not only the viewing public to have a choice on where to obtain their information, but for the media's sake, too.

Who, for example, knew a city debate over an Islamic cultural center in Manhattan would invoke a response from Pres. Obama, Newt Gingrich and just about every other politician, running and not running for office?

Starting as a New York Times article, the story of the so-called Ground Zero Mosque soon became a frequent segment subject on Fox News. From there, it went viral. The AP, New York Post and Sunday political talk shows talked endlessly about the planned Islamic cultural center.

And when Obama remarked on the subject, the story laminated itself as a campaign talking point.

The "mosque" debate soon became a bigger narrative on religion, a narrative that grew so heated so quickly that a pastor in Florida threaten to burn a pile of Korans on the anniversary on Sept. 11. Gen. David Petraeus told the media that the burning could endanger troops. While Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged network news not to cover the burning "as an act of patriotism."

In any other city the issue would have gone unnoticed, but the cultural center's proximity to Ground Zero had all the markings of a great television debate. However, this seemly harmless debate suddenly turned into national security issue, all based on a cable news segment.

What the "mosque" debate lacked in media scrutiny, the Shirley Sherrod scandal made up for.

Sherrod was the Georgia USDA worker that was fired over comments taken out of context by conservative blogger Andrew Breitbart. Breitbart posted carefully edited video of a speech Sherrod gave at an NAACP event.

While Fox News and MSNBC ran with the video followed by colorful punditry, CNN did a phone interview with Sherrod to tell her side of the story -- that her comments were edited and taken out of context. Even though Sherrod told anyone that would listen that the media was getting the story wrong, the morning shows had already done their damage. Sherrod was asked to resign immediately. When the full video emerged, Sherrod received an apology from the president and a personal phone call. And she was even offered a higher position in the administration. She graciously declined.

Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) is wasting little time kicking off his tenure as the new chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, using the winter break to recruit candidates in some of the dozens of seats Democrats believe they can win in 2012.

Israel spent part of the Christmas break in Arizona, where he met with both Reps. Harry Mitchell and Ann Kirkpatrick to encourage them to run again, according to sources in both Arizona and Washington.

Israel's early recruiting drive aims to take advantage of what Democrats believe will be a target-rich playing field this year. Republican gains in the 2010 midterms mean the GOP holds 61 seats President Obama won in 2008 and 14 that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won in 2004. Those seats will be at the top of Democratic target lists for the next cycle.

The DCCC, under Israel's control for just a month, has already gathered a broad spectrum of members who will focus on recruiting new candidates this year, according to one Democratic source. That committee, including Reps. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Allyson Schwartz (D-Pa.), Mike Ross (D-Ark.), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) and Donna Edwards (D-Md.), met December 16 to begin mapping out strategy for the 2012 cycle.

Mitchell's and Kirkpatrick's districts are two places where Democrats will try to claw back some of their losses from 2010. Mitchell lost his bid for a third term to Rep.-elect David Schweikert (R), while freshman Kirkpatrick lost her seat to Rep.-elect Paul Gosar (R).

Democrats won both Arizona seats in wave elections in 2006 and 2008, and the party thinks the seats will be competitive next cycle. But at 70 years old, it's unlikely Mitchell will be their candidate in the Scottsdale- and Tempe-based Fifth District. Kirkpatrick, who turned 60 this year, could conceivably run again, and Democrats may need her to; election results this year decimated the party's bench in the sprawling First District, which reaches from the Four Corners through Flagstaff and south, stopping just north of Tucson.

Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele has lost a staunch ally in his bid for a second term as another contender continues racking up support and momentum.

On Sunday, California national committee member Shawn Steel made public his decision to back Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus. The Californian had been a key member of Steele's kitchen cabinet and one of the incumbent chairman's top defenders.

The defection, rumored for a week, is seen as a major blow to Steele's dwindling re-election hopes.

"There is no path to victory for Michael Steele that does not include Shawn," said Ron Kaufman, an influential committee member from Massachusetts who has not committed to backing a candidate but who has frequently clashed with Steele. "To most on the committee he was clearly [Steele's] biggest supporter. His defection leaves no one left to shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic."

Priebus is another former top Steele ally, but he has downplayed his connection to the chairman as he seeks the top job himself. In an email announcing support from Steel and three other RNC members, Priebus again brought up what members see as the incumbent's divisive tenure.

"I'm proud to be gathering endorsements from all perspectives within the Committee because it demonstrates my desire and ability to end the drama within the RNC, redouble our major donor fundraising efforts and devise a plan in partnership with state parties to ensure victory in 2012," Priebus wrote in a Sunday night email to committee members.

Along with Steel, Priebus also announced support from Oklahoma national committee member James Dunn, Oklahoma party chairman Matt Pinnell and Nebraska national committee member Pete Ricketts. The new supporters give Priebus 22 public commitments -- a quarter of the way toward the 85 votes he would need to win.

Steele has 12 public commitments, according to The Hotline's RNC Whip Count. Former Michigan party chairman Saul Anuzis and former RNC co-chairman Ann Wagner each have 10 votes, while former Bush administration official Maria Cino counts five public supporters and former RNC political director Gentry Collins has three votes. 106 voters remain undecided.

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's Redistricting Q&A feature, where we sit down with some of the people most involved with the reapportionment process. On Tuesday, we brought you an interview with Georgia Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, who is leading the efforts on the Republican side.

We now jump across the aisle and chat with California Rep. Mike Thompson (D). Thompson served in the California state Senate for eight years before coming to Congress and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) tapped him to coordinate the Democrats redistricting efforts last year. In an interview in his congressional office before the official release of the census numbers, the Northern Californian discussed how Democrats are working to be sure Republicans don't catch them by surprise this time, what he is already telling congressional delegations in closed door meetings and the Democratic strategy for states where Republicans have complete control of the redistricting process.

The Hotline: Let's begin with what Democrats have been doing to start the redistricting process. I know there have been meetings with congressional delegations to get them up to speed on what's been going on.

MT: I think it's safe to report that the Democratic caucus does not want to follow in the footsteps of previous reapportionments. Republicans have always been very, very aggressive. You don't have to look any further than the Tom DeLay plan for Texas [after the last census]. And we want to make sure that that doesn't happen again to any delegation, so we have been meeting, looking at statistics, population numbers. We're making sure that we fully understand the legal requirements for reapportionment and we're making sure that every delegation knows the importance of being plugged into this stuff and starts thinking about it.

The Hotline: Has there been discussion sort of what maps are going to be proposed in different states?

MT: I think it's still pretty early to start looking at specific maps. We don't have any population numbers, the census findings -- down to the precinct level -- are not out yet. So, I think you're probably looking at early in the spring.

The Hotline: Republicans gained a lot of control of the redistricting process this year -- especially in states that are projected to lose seats.

MT: I think that as a result of the election there are about 16 states now where Republicans will control redistricting. I think there are about nine states where Democrats will. I think there's about 12 states that are toss-up states. Some states, as you know, are at-large-states and there are a number of states that have commissions. So the commission issue is separate.

The Hotline: So in states where Republicans have control, how does that influence your strategy? Are there deliberations about whether it's worth drawing your own maps or how to go about making sure you hold on to certain Democratic seats? Are there some states where Republicans have so much control that there's not much you can do?

MT: What we can do right now is best understand the population numbers, and best understand the law. We just want to make sure that most states draw lines that comply with the law.

While Pres. Obama declared at his recent news conference that he will not give up on working with Republicans to pass the Dream Act, come January he isn't likely to find much support among the GOP ranks.

Only four Republicans who voted this month for the bill that would create a pathway to citizenship for children of illegal immigrants will be members of the 112th Congress: Sens. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Latino Florida Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R). Meanwhile, Obama loses six senators that voted for the Dream Act to more conservative replacements.

Without winning over any new senators, Obama will start the 112th Congress with only 49 members of the Senate supporting the Dream Act.

Six out of eight House Republicans who supported the Dream Act are either retiring at the end of the 111th Congress or lost re-election bouts. That group includes Reps. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Joseph Cao (R-La.), Mike Castle (R-Del.), Charles Djou (R-Hawaii), Vern Ehlers (R-Mich.) and Bob Inglis (R-S.C.).

Cao, Castle and Djou are being replaced by Democrats while Mario Diaz-Balart ran unopposed in his brother Lincoln's district. Inglis lost a primary challenge from his right to Rep.-elect Trey Gowdy (R) in a runoff while Rep.-elect Justin Amash (R) succeeded the retiring moderate Ehlers. Sen. Bob Bennett (R) met a similar fate to Gowdy as he failed to emerge from the Utah GOP's nominating convention while facing two challengers from his right, including Sen.-elect Mike Lee (R).

Updated, 10:08 p.m., Sunday, December 26

More than one-third of Republican National Committee members have declared their support for one of the six contenders seeking the chairmanship, and with just under a month to go the race remains wide open.

The big movers over the weekend: Former RNC co-chairman Ann Wagner, who picked up support from the West Virginia delegation, and former Bush administration official Maria Cino, who announced her first public endorsements. Those nods came from several highly-regarded voters who have served on the committee for years.

So far, at least 57 committee members have publicly said they back a candidate. We consider an endorsement either a comment in a publication or a release from a candidate's campaign. Missing any names? Email us and let us know.

The Hotline's latest RNC whip count:

REINCE PRIEBUS (22)
Linda Ackerman, California national committeewoman
Henry Barbour, Mississippi national committeeman
Sandy Boehler, North Dakota national committeewoman
Jim Bopp, Indiana national committeeman
Pat Brady, Illinois Party chair
Mary Buestrin, Wisconsin national committeewoman
James Dunn, Oklahoma national committeeman
Sharon Giese, Arizona national committeewoman
Curly Haugland, North Dakota national committeeman
Mark Hillman, Colorado national committeeman
Bruce Hough, Utah national committeeman
Steve King, Wisconsin national committeeman
Jeanne Luckey, Mississippi national committeewoman
Matt Pinnell, Oklahoma Party chair
Alec Poitevint, Georgia national committeeman
Reince Priebus, Wisconsin Party chair
Pete Ricketts, Nebraska national committeeman
Steve Scheffler, Iowa national committeeman
Shawn Steel, California national committeeman
Stan Stein, North Dakota Party chair
Tony Sutton, Minnesota Party chair
Brad White, Mississippi Party chair

MICHAEL STEELE (12)
Peter Ada, Guam national committeeman
John Frey, Connecticut national committeeman
Holly Hughes, Michigan national committeewoman
Robert Kabel, District of Columbia Party chair
Lilliana Belardo de O'Neal, USVI committeewoman
Holland Redfield, USVI national committeeman
Pat Rogers, New Mexico national committeeman
Herbert Schoenbohm, USVI Party chair
Norm Semanko, Idaho Party chair
Joyce Terhes, Maryland national committeewoman
Bob Tiernan, Oregan Party chair
Betsy Werronen, District of Columbia national committeewoman

SAUL ANUZIS (10)
Saul Anuzis, Michigan national committeeman
Morton Blackwell, Virginia national committeeman
Gio Cicione, Rhode Island Party chair
Bill Crocker, Texas national committeeman
Mark Fahleson, Nebraska Party chair
Dana Randall, South Dakota national committeeman
Tom Ross, Delaware Republican Party chair
Heidi Smith, Nevada national committeewoman
Mike Stuart, West Virginia Party chair
Dick Wadhams, Colorado Republican Party chair

ANN WAGNER (10)
Lance Beshore, Missouri national committeeman
David Cole, Missouri Party chair
Bettye Fine Collins, Alabama national committeewoman
Chris Devaney, Tennessee Party chair
Ann Dickinson, Missouri national committeewoman
Donna Lou Gosney, West Virginia national committeewoman
Peggy Lambert, Tennessee national committeewoman
Jim Reed, West Virginia national committeeman
Randy Ruedrich, Alaska Party chair
John Ryder, Tennessee national committeeman

MARIA CINO (5)
Evie Axdahl, Minnesota national committeewoman
Ed Cox, New York Party chair
Jo Ann Davidson, Ohio national committeewoman
Kevin DeWine, Ohio Party chair
Priscilla Rakestraw, Delaware national committeewoman

GENTRY COLLINS (3)
Chris Healy, Connecticut Party chair
Matt Strawn, Iowa Party chair
Tom Fetzer, North Carolina Party chair

UNDECLARED (106)

Welcome back to The Hotline's "Year In Review" features. Earlier this week, we brought you the Year In Scandals and the Year In Upsets.

We now turn to the surprising stars of 2010. These are contenders who were pretty far off the radar screen at the beginning of the cycle but who stepped forward to run strong campaigns. Such candidates spanned the country this year and often took advantage of the electorate's desire for new, atypical politicians.

Any discussion of unexpected stars in 2010 has to start with Wisconsin Sen.-elect Ron Johnson (R). Johnson decided to challenge Sen. Russ Feingold (D) after a bevy of Republicans passed on the race, including former Gov. Tommy Thompson -- who was considered the GOP's best shot at the seat early in the cycle. Johnson wasn't a highly touted National Republican Senatorial Committee recruit, but he turned out to be one of its best candidates. He combined his business background with strong, unique TV ads and went on to beat Feingold pretty easily.

Another surprise star is South Carolina Gov.-elect Nikki Haley (R). Sure, South Carolina is a Republican state, so Haley winning the general election once she got the nomination was no shocker. But getting the nomination was no cake walk. Haley overcame several obstacles, including unproven allegations of affairs, and emerged as one of the most rapidly rising stars in the GOP. The former state representative has added ethnic and gender diversity to the Republican Party and was recently named recruitment chair of the Republican Governors Association.

Another Republican who added diversity to the GOP ranks is New Mexico Gov.-elect Susana Martinez (R). Martinez was a somewhat unknown District Attorney when she launched her gubernatorial bid. Martinez was able to successfully tie Lt. Gov. and Democratic nominee Diane Denish to Gov. Bill Richardson's (D) problems and went on to win easily. Like Haley, Martinez has also been named to the RGA's leadership team.

One of the best-known conservative voices on the Republican National Committee will support Reince Priebus in the race for national party chairman next month, according to an email sent to committee members today.

Priebus, the chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, has won backing from Indiana national committee member Jim Bopp, a prominent Republican attorney and the founder of a group of conservative members of the RNC.

Bopp's group, the Republican National Conservative Caucus, was formed just before the 2009 RNC election. Many saw it as a way to coalesce behind a candidate other than Michael Steele, who went on to win the chairmanship.

Priebus "has successfully employed in Wisconsin and intends to implement in the RNC a leadership team approach, which I believe is vital for any Chairman's success. This means bring together a top notched group of RNC members and professionals ... to guide the RNC's activities," Bopp wrote in an email to fellow RNC members.

Bopp's endorsement means 18 of the 168 members of the RNC publicly back Priebus, far more than support any other candidate for the chairmanship. And Bopp's endorsement will help Priebus convince wavering conservatives that he is the right candidate for the job.

But getting conservatives to coalesce behind Priebus will be difficult, especially given that other conservative luminaries on the committee have already lined up behind other contenders. Virginia national committee member Morton Blackwell, who runs a training institute for young conservative activists, is backing former Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis. Minnesota national committee member Evie Axdahl, a founding member of the conservative caucus, is backing former Bush administration official Maria Cino. Several prominent conservatives have already lined up behind former RNC co-chairman Ann Wagner as well.

Bopp has spent the last two years feuding with Steele, who canceled a large legal contract with Bopp's Terre Haute, Indiana-based firm. The latest feud erupted when Bopp complained Steele had played the race card in announcing his re-election bid. On a conference call with committee members, Steele said his bid would test the GOP's "willingness to be the party of Lincoln."

Earlier this week, we took a look at the Year In Scandals.

Today, we'll look at the biggest upsets of 2010. And there were plenty to go around this year -- from a Republican winning Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts to Tea Party fueled upheaval in Republican primaries.

The year started out with one of the biggest upsets of the year: Sen. Scott Brown's (R) special election victory in Massachusetts. Brown, a little known state senator, took on Attorney General Martha Coakley (D), who as a statewide officeholder, had a perfect political resume - on paper. By running a well-oiled campaign that capitalized on early unrest with the Democratic agenda to raise millions of dollars, Brown won late Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat in January. And, as we noted recently, Brown is in surprisingly good shape for 2012 when he is up for re-election.

Alaska could be dubbed "upset central" after the 2010 cycle. First, we saw Republican attorney Joe Miller pull off a Tea Party Express fueled stunner against Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the Senate Republican primary. More than anything else, Miller's win was another example the Tea Party Express' ability to influence a Republican primary electorate -- something that defined 2010 Republican primaries.

The primary win was the high point of Miller's campaign and it quickly went downhill from there. Murkowski launched a long shot write-in bid, something no senator has successfully pulled off since Strom Thurmond in 1954. Miller stumbled repeatedly, including a highly covered incident where his security detail (yes, evidently he had a security detail) arrested a reporter. That opened the door for Murkowski to pull off the second upset in the Last Frontier, when she beat Miller, despite his unwillingness to bow out of the race.

After Miller's primary win, the Tea Party Express rolled into Delaware and produced another stunner: Christine O'Donnell's win over Rep. Mike Castle in the Republican Senate primary and ending Castle's four long service holding elected office in the state. O'Donnell went on to run a much-mocked general election campaign, virtually handing the Senate seat to Democrat Chris Coons. All was not lost for O'Donnell, however; the Republican, who -- if nothing else -- could spark media coverage on demand, recently signed a book deal.

With the release of the census numbers on Tuesday, we're debuting a new Hotline On Call feature: Redistricting Q&A. Approximately every week, we'll sit down with someone who is playing an important role in the reapportionment process, either on the national or statewide level.

We'll start with Georgia Republican Rep. Lynn Westmoreland. Westmoreland is the vice chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee in charge of redistricting. In our chat in his congressional office - which took place before the census numbers were officially released -- the garrulous Georgian discussed where Republicans are in the redistricting process, where the GOP has the best opportunities to create Republican-leaning districts, how he plans to squeeze one more Republican district into his home state and how legal challenges will likely be funded by third party groups instead of by parties this go around.

Stay tuned for more Redistricting Q&A's over the holidays from California Rep. Mike Thompson, who is leading the Democratic efforts, and Democratic strategist Matt Angle, a veteran of Texas reapportionment.

The Hotline: When you got started two years ago, what were some of the first steps you guys took and where are you in the process now?

LW: What we tried to do was to put together as much data as we could. We looked at the states as far as what the make-up was of the delegation. Which states have commissions, which states were going to have ballot referendums [on redistricting] and so on. We looked at whether the governor has veto rights over the new maps and who would be on a commission if a Republican governor was elected or a Democratic governor. What the make-up of those commissions would be.

The Hotline: Now that we know the election results and Republicans made probably more significant gains at the state level than they made at the national level. How does that affect your thinking? Are there areas of the country or are states where you're particularly enthusiastic about the redrawing process?

LW: Well, I think Alabama. You know, we had Alabama on our list of potential control states and that happened. North Carolina was also one of those states that we looked at as far as winning the state Senate. And Ohio, which is losing two seats. Pennsylvania. We made big gains in Texas, that's picking up four seats. Republicans made big state House gains there.

The commission passed in California [where Democrats would have controlled the process], but the commission also passed in Florida [where Republicans would have controlled the process]. I think that's going to be some legal challenges down there.

The Hotline: What advice are you giving to the map drawers and legislators?

LW: What we want to make sure these legislators understand is that drawing a fair map is the best map.

The Hotline: Right. You mean so it doesn't get challenged.

The Sun Belt will gain new seats in Congress based on the U.S. population's continued shift south and west, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau and its director, Robert Groves.

The new data show that the country grew at a slower pace than it has in earlier decades. But states in the South grew at a faster rate than those in the Rust Belt; those states will give up some representation in Congress, while Southern states will grow in influence.

Arizona, Nevada, South Carolina, Georgia, Utah, and Washington state will all gain one member of Congress. The Texas delegation will grow the most, adding four new seats; Florida's will gain two.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, and Louisiana will each lose a House seat. New York and Ohio, both hard hit by generations of migration and more recent industrial stagnation, will lose two seats each.

Louisiana, the only state not in the Northeast or the Midwest to lose a seat, lost population following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when thousands of residents fled to neighboring states, largely to Texas.

The trend of House seats migrating south along with population has continued for the better part of a century. Southern states and those along the country's border with Mexico held 195 seats in the past decade, up from 124 seats after the 1930 Census. In the next decade, those states will be represented by 204 House members.

Rust Belt states in the industrial Northeast and Midwest have bled seats over the same period. After the 1930 Census, New York was awarded 45 seats, Pennsylvania got 34, and Ohio had 24. In the next decade, the Empire State will have 27 representatives, the Keystone State 18 and the Buckeye State just 16.

The Northeast and the Midwest grew by small margins, growing just 3.2 percent and 3.9 percent each. The South grew by 14.3 percent, according to census data, led by Texas, Georgia, and Florida, all of which grew at much higher rates. Arizona, Nevada, and Utah grew fastest in the West, which as a region grew by 13.8 percent over the last decade.

Emblematic of internal population shifts, the West now has a larger population than the Midwest, Groves said.

Despite grim forecasts, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said that the Census Bureau completed its decennial work on time and $1.87 billion under budget. Fully 74 percent of Americans returned Census questionnaires by mail, about the same rate that returned questionnaires in 2000, Locke said.

The country's total population, as of April 1, 2010, was 308,745,538, a growth of 9.7 percent over the last decade.

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The Chris Christie bandwagon may have hit a speed bump - at least a small one - based on results from two new polls released today.

The polls, from Quinnipiac and Rutgers-Eagleton, show Christie's approval rating in New Jersey slipping a bit, with significant majorities skeptical that he'd make a good president or vice-president. The polling shows that Christie is one of the most polarizing governors in recent New Jersey history, with more voters holding both a very favorable view of him and an extremely negative view.

The slippage comes as his national profile continues to rise (his "60 Minutes" interview the latest in the media blitz), and as he's taken on the state Supreme Court for being excessively liberal.

The Quinnipiac survey shows Christie with a 46 percent job approval rating, with 44 percent disapproving. That's down from his 51 percent approval rating last month. He also now holds a net negative rating on education, with 45 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving of his reform efforts, taking on the teachers' unions and educational establishment in the process.

For the first time in many months, Obama's approval rating has inched ahead of Christie's. The president's approval in New Jersey is now at 50 percent, up four points from last month - and the first time he's gotten majority approval since June.

The Rutgers poll found 39 percent giving Christie positive ratings, with 54 percent rating him negatively. The 28 percent of voters who consider his job performance "poor" is the second-highest for any first-year governor in the history of the poll.

And despite all the presidential buzz (which he's aggressively denied), even his supporters are skeptical that he'd be a good fit in the White House. Only 25 percent of voters said he'd make a good president - and just 50 percent of Republicans - with 63 percent disagreeing. Only 32 percent thought he'd make a good vice president.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted Dec. 14-19, among 1,276 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 2.7%. The Rutgers-Eagleton poll was conducted earlier in the month, from Dec. 2-6. The Rutgers poll surveyed 906 adults, for a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

Over the weekend the Senate voted to repeal the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" law. Conan O'Brien on the law being overturned: "This is great news for gay soldiers and bad news for straight soldiers who were planning to say they were gay to get out of the Army." David Letterman, on Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) opposing the repeal: "Although he admitted that he probably has served with gay soldiers in the Civil War."

After watching the most recent episode of Sarah Palin's Alaska, Jimmy Fallon wants to know if anyone in Alaska has a "normal human name".

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:52, Pres. Obama has to clean up after first dog Bo.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Candidates vying for the chance to lead the Republican National Committee have had discussions with each other aimed at ensuring incumbent chairman Michael Steele is not elected to a second two-year term, several have confirmed to The Hotline, though none have agreed to vote-trading deals.

"Many candidate have had conversations to make sure the ballot is not any more divided than it needs to be," said former RNC political director Gentry Collins.

"There is clearly a consensus among all the candidates that there is a need for change," former Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis said in a brief interview. But, he said, "There hasn't been a discussion about who drops out at what time and when and where."

Each of the five candidates running against Steele has focused their argument on repairing the RNC, a wounded committee that saw its fundraising go seriously off-track over the last two years. Though they rarely cite Steele by name, each candidate makes clear reference to the incumbent.

Asked in an interview for C-SPAN's "Newsmakers" program, airing this Sunday, Collins said his path to victory involves persuading members that he is the right candidate to put the RNC back on track.

"A number of things that happened at the RNC argue that we need new leaderships, argue that we need leadership that doesn't have as its first mission saying provocative things on news shows. That has instead, as the first mission of the next chairman, to make sure that political plans are in place that can win back the White House, and that those plans are resourced, that they're funded," Collins said. "And that was clearly a major failing of this chairman. So I think there's a hunger among membership to turn that around."

But other candidates have been more aggressive in opposing Steele. Former RNC co-chair Ann Wagner on Monday told CNN she has been actively working to convince fellow candidates to avoid throwing their support to Steele if the race doesn't break their way.

One of Pres. Obama's biggest supporters in the Senate in the past week is not even a member of his own party: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).

Murkowski supported the president's position on the Senate's four biggest votes since last Wednesday. She and fellow Alaska Sen. Mark Begich (D) voted in favor of the tax cut compromise and to invoke cloture on New START treaty, the Dream Act and the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell. Both senators also voted in favor of the final repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell on Saturday.

No Senate Republican voted for all four bills other than Murkowski. And the senior senator from Alaska, who became a national figure this year when she defeated attorney Joe Miller (R) with her write-in campaign, has actually been a more reliable vote for the president than 18 members of the Senate Democratic caucus since Dec. 15.

Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.), for example, broke with her party twice since Wednesday. She voted against both the tax cut compromise and the Dream Act.

Hagan joined 13 other members of her caucus in opposing the tax cut compromise. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) missed votes Saturday on the Dream Act and Don't Ask, Don't Tell after previously voting against both bills. And Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) missed the START cloture vote.

Meanwhile, Sens. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) voted against the Dream Act while Republicans Sens. Bob Bennett (Utah), Richard Lugar (Ind.) and Murkowski voted for it. Lugar and Bennett also voted with the majority of Democrats on the tax cut compromise and for cloture on the New START treaty. They voted against cloture on Don't Ask, Don't Tell, however.

Welcome to the first chapter in The Hotline's "Year In Review" series. Like college football's bowl season, we'll be bringing you a recap of the year's most notable news up until the new year -- one category at a time.

We start with everyone's favorite guilty pleasure: Political scandals. This year was full of them -- from Charlie Rangel's censure to Nazi paraphernalia and biker gangs on the campaign trail.

No political scandal sucked up more air than the ethics trial and eventual censure of former Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.). The two-year saga revealed several instances of indiscretions by Rangel -- from using congressional letterhead to fundraise for his public service center in New York, to receiving lower than market rental rates on Harlem apartments and, most notably, not reporting income from villas he owns in the Dominican Republic on his taxes.

All of this came to a head in November when the Ethics subcommittee found Rangel guilty of 11 ethics violations. Then, in early December, the House voted to censure Rangel. In true Rangel style, the Democrat didn't go quietly into the night -- he has kept up his media appearances proclaiming in innocence since the vote.

While Rangel's resignation is freshest in everyone's mind, the scandal that led to Rep. Eric Massa's (D-N.Y.) resignation is probably the year's most bizarre. Massa announced in early March that he wouldn't seek re-election. Two days later, it was revealed that he was under investigation by the Ethics Committee for a sexual harassment complaint filed by one of his staff members. The whole episode -- later dubbed "Tickle Gate" -- just got stranger and stranger as questions surrounding Massa's sexuality arose and he launched an all out media blitz that included lengthy interviews with Glenn Beck. Later, Massa said he considered killing himself in a very bizarre interview with Esquire.

Speaking of sex scandals, don't forget Rep. Mark Souder's (R-Ind.) resignation in May. Souder ended his eight terms in Congress after his affair with a staffer, Tracy Jackson, became public. This scandal was particularly rich with hypocrisy considering Souder identified as a family values Republican. Oh yeah, and there was this online video featuring Jackson interviewing Souder on abstinence-only education.

The repeal of "don't ask, don't tell" allowing gays to serve openly in the military is a landmark legislation - a historic civil rights bill that will be remembered in the history books for generations to come. But the political implications of its passage are also very significant, for both the White House and several leading senators whose fortunes changed overnight.

Here are the four big political winners in the wake of the "don't ask, don't tell" repeal:

1. President Obama. Obama, without even much behind-the-scenes arm twisting, managed to see one of his campaign promises, and an issue near and dear to his liberal base passed - in a bipartisan fashion, no less. It, along with the tax compromise, will make his Christmas vacation in Hawaii much sweeter.

If anything, Obama should have been more outspoken in his support for the bill - it was the work of leading senators (notably Joe Lieberman, Susan Collins and Harry Reid) that helped revive its prospects. But he also has a great opportunity to have his own Clinton-like Sister Souljah moment thanks to repeal.

As former Bush speechwriter David Frum pointed out over the weekend, Obama has a golden opportunity to score conservative points thanks to the repeal of "don't ask, don't tell." Frum noted that he could use his upcoming State of the Union to urge Ivy League universities to end the ban on ROTC recruiting on their campuses, now that gays can serve openly in the military. That would make him sound both pro-military and score symbolic points that would make the right happy.

2. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.): Lieberman's persistent advocacy for the bill, both publicly and behind-the-scenes, played a major role in its passage. And he looks to have revived his political prospects for 2012, which looked very dim just weeks ago. Lieberman now has a viable path to win re-election as either a Democrat or independent.

Will a liberal, like Rep. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), want to give up his rising career in the House to challenge him in a Democratic primary, when Lieberman can now point to his leadership on an issue dear to the Democratic base? Does his hawkishness on foreign policy annoy liberals as much in 2012, when Obama has increased the troop levels in Afghanistan, and has embraced many elements of President Bush's counterterrorism policies himself? The risk-reward ratio just got much higher for any Democratic challenger to Lieberman, and suddenly puts him in credible position to get re-elected.

3. Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.): Has any senator up in 2012 positioned themselves as skillfully as Brown has? Since winning the special election, Brown has adroitly maintained a fiscally-conservative profile - coming out against earmarks, supporting the tax compromise - while finding common cause with Democrats on other high-profile issues. His approval rating in Massachusetts is in strong shape for a Republican, thanks to his socially-moderate image. Brown's backing of DADT repeal will only serve to improve those numbers.

4. Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.): Kirk, who was just sworn in this month, took a big step in solidifying his centrist credentials in the Senate by voting for repeal. He's not up for re-election again until 2016, but if this vote is any indication, he will continue to act like the fiscally-conservative, socially-moderate member of Congress as he did with great success in the House.

As the new year approaches, Saturday Night Live wonders what headlines the Democrats would like to see in 2011. Pres. Obama's dream headline: "WIKILEAKS: 'John McCain A Muslim'."

Jimmy Fallon likes the vintage dress Michelle Obama wore to the Christmas in Washington Concert, "She's not the only one going vintage, in fact, her husband just agreed to a tax plan from the early 2000s."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:15 to see Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's dream headlines. Then let us know which headline you think is the best in our Late Night Poll.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

What we at The Hotline learned this week.

-- While all hope seemed to be lost last week for Democrats to pass some of their most cherished bits of socially progressive legislation this Congress, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) wasn't willing to throw in the towel. The former boxer pushed -- successfully -- to repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

Reid also didn't give up on the Dream Act. Even though that effort ultimately failed, the vote showed Hispanics why they should back Democrats -- a reminder that is more than welcome in the White House as Pres. Obama turns to his re-election bid.

And if the new START treaty picks up the votes it needs to pass, then Reid has shown Democrats are willing to stand by their agenda, even after a midterm election that dealt Democrats' significant defeats. And, for Reid, it shows why Democrats are sticking with their leader.

-- With the passage of his tax cut compromise and the repeal of DADT, this has been Obama's best week in D.C. in quite a while. Obama still has a lot of hurdles to overcome to be in solid position for 2012, but if he can continue to pivot to the center and get the support of Republican allies in the process, he won't be in half-bad shape - especially given the less-than-impressive state of the Republican presidential field.

One of those hurdles may still be the tax cut compromise. The White House's argument that a two-year extension is good for the 2012 race is questionable. Making ending high-end Bush tax cuts a defining message of the campaign will just remind liberals of the compromise, and probably aggravate Obama's base.

-- In Nevada and Utah, the Republican senators up for re-election in 2012 already know they're likely to face primary challengers from the House -- and this week, both Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) and Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) parted ways with those potential future adversaries. Both senators took less conservative positions than the congressmen who may want their seats: Hatch supported the tax cut compromise, while Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) opposed it; Ensign requested $85 million in earmarks in the omnibus bill, while Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) requested no earmarks at all.

-- Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) looks like he is almost certainly going to run for president. Why else would he so aggressively rebut this week's story on RealClearPolitics that said he once supported the concept of cap-and-trade? Huckabee posted immediate messages on his website and Twitter account, which were parroted on his multitude of state Twitter accounts, pushing back fast and furiously against the story. The only reasonable explanation is that he wanted to squash that narrative before it gained momentum - period. There are two types of people who operate like that: elected officials, and those aspiring to be elected. As far as we're concerned, Huckabee demonstrated this week why he belongs in the latter category.

It's the political version of the NCAA's Selection Day: Ten states waiting for the big Tuesday announcement from the Census Department to find out just how much congressional clout they will gain or lose in the once-a-decade remap of the nation's House districts.

The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman lists the 10 states "on the bubble" of winning (or losing) the final five seats in the House. Hotline subscribers can also check out Dave's state-by-state analysis of how the etch-a-sketching might go down - complete with some hypothetical maps. (Hat tip to Dave Bradlee's cool redistricting app for enabling us to provide this.)

Updated, Dec. 17, 5:55 p.m.

Republican National Committee members now have a total of six candidates from which to choose as they contemplate their next chairman. And, slowly, the 168 members of the committee are making their decisions public.

So far, at least 43 committee members have said they back a candidate. We consider an endorsement either a comment in a publication or a release from a candidate's campaign. Missing any names? Email us and let us know.

The Hotline's latest RNC whip count:

REINCE PRIEBUS (16)
Linda Ackerman, California national committeewoman
Henry Barbour, Mississippi national committeeman
Sandy Boehler, North Dakota national committeewoman
Pat Brady, Illinois Party chair
Mary Buestrin, Wisconsin national committeewoman
Sharon Giese, Arizona national committeewoman
Curly Haugland, North Dakota national committeeman
Mark Hillman, Colorado national committeeman
Bruce Hough, Utah national committeeman
Steve King, Wisconsin national committeeman
Jeanne Luckey, Mississippi national committeewoman
Alec Poitevint, Georgia national committeeman
Reince Priebus, Wisconsin Party chair
Steve Scheffler, Iowa national committeeman
Tony Sutton, Minnesota Party chair
Brad White, Mississippi Party Chair

MICHAEL STEELE (12)
Peter Ada, Guam national committeeman
John Frey, Connecticut national committeeman
Holly Hughes, Michigan national committeewoman
Robert Kabel, District of Columbia Party chair
Lilliana Belardo de O'Neal, USVI committeewoman
Holland Redfield, USVI national committeeman
Pat Rogers, New Mexico national committeeman
Herbert Schoenbohm, USVI Party chair
Norm Semanko, Idaho Party chair
Joyce Terhes, Maryland national committeewoman
Bob Tiernan, Oregan Party chair
Betsy Werronen, District of Columbia national committeewoman

SAUL ANUZIS (10)
Saul Anuzis, Michigan national committeeman
Morton Blackwell, Virginia national committeeman
Gio Cicione, Rhode Island Party chair
Bill Crocker, Texas national committeeman
Mark Fahleson, Nebraska Party chair
Dana Randall, South Dakota national committeeman
Tom Ross, Delaware Republican Party chair
Heidi Smith, Nevada national committeewoman
Mike Stuart, West Virginia Party chair
Dick Wadhams, Colorado Republican Party chair

ANN WAGNER (8)
Lance Beshore, Missouri national committeeman
David Cole, Missouri Party chair
Bettye Fine Collins, Alabama national committeewoman
Chris Devaney, Tennessee Party chair
Ann Dickinson, Missouri national committeewoman
Peggy Lambert, Tennessee national committeewoman
Randy Ruedrich, Alaska Party chair
John Ryder, Tennessee national committeeman

GENTRY COLLINS (2)
Chris Healy, Connecticut Party chair
Matt Strawn, Iowa Party chair

MARIA CINO (0)
---

UNDECLARED (120)

The days of Democratic control of both chambers of Congress are numbered going into the weekend before Christmas. The Senate's ambitious year end agenda dominates the weekend shows as nine senators make appearances.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will go on "State of the Union." "This Week" has Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) discussing the possibility of passing the new START Treaty. The Senate's vote counters, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), will be on "Fox News Sunday" to discuss the agenda going into Christmas and the week following it. "Face the Nation" hosts Sens. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) to highlight the finale of this year's legislative session. Finally, "Meet the Press" has Vice Pres. Joe Biden to cover not only the Senate's agenda but also foreign policy and the economy.

"Fox News Sunday" will also host Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) to talk about the recent ruling on health care reform in his state.

Premiering Friday, but repeating on Sunday at 9 p.m., Fox News will air "Politicians' Top 10 Promises Gone Wrong," a one-hour special hosted by John Stossel. The program will examine political promises and their consequences. Topics include 'cash for clunkers,' the minimum wage, credit card reform, and health care reform.

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Vice Pres. Joe Biden and Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D).
Face the Nation hosts Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) .
This Week hosts Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), and the Washington Post's Rajiv Shah.
Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) and Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-Va.).
State of the Union hosts Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and National Association of Letter Carriers Fredric Rolando.

If this cycle's election results are any indicator for Pres. Obama's path to re-election, then the president needs to significantly repair his party's image throughout the Midwest states he won in 2008.

A close look at how Democrats fared this year compared to how they did in 2008 suggests that Obama needs to focus his 2012 campaign near the Great Lakes and the Mountain West -- Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. There are five other states Obama won that he'll need to spend significant time in order to win: Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

However, with more than 50 Electoral College votes at stake in Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa will be vital to any Republican electoral strategy. That means for Obama to block the Republicans, the best place to do it will be the Midwest.

Mathematically, the Republican nominee can get to the 270 electoral college votes to win the without winning a single state in the Midwest. But doing so would require winning every other swing state, every Republican leaning state and at least one high-value Democratic leaning state, such as Pennsylvania.

A more practical route to victory for the Republican nominee would be to win the South, Nebraska's Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District, and at least two states in the Midwest.

At the top of that list are Indiana and Ohio. No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio since the Civil War. Republicans also won Indiana every cycle from 1968 through 2004, and the same goes for Omaha. More, Republicans made major gains in Indiana and Ohio in this year's midterms -- picking up five House seats and the governorship in Ohio, as well as two House seats and a Senate seat in Indiana.

Former Republican National Committee chairman Mike Duncan won't try to win back his old job, he said Friday.

In a statement e-mailed to reporters, Duncan, who chaired the committee from 2007 to 2009, said he appreciated the encouragement he had received, but that he would not have the time to run the committee as he had during the 2008 cycle. Duncan had considered a comeback, and had even participated in the first candidate forum of the year, held December 1 in Washington.

Though Duncan won't run against the man who beat him two years ago, he pulled no punches in leveling his criticism of current chairman Michael Steele's tenure.

"The next chairman of the RNC faces tremendous challenges in lifting the committee out of debt, preparing for the next presidential nominee, and restoring the RNC to its place as the premier political organization in the United States. With the American Dream being destroyed by Barack Obama and the Democrats' reckless economic policies and lack of leadership on the global stage, the stakes are so high that, to save America, we must change the leadership at the top of the committee," Duncan said.

His exit means the field of candidates running to chair the RNC is largely set at six. Steele wants a second term, but he faces off against former Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis, Wisconsin Party chairman Reince Priebus, former RNC co-chairman Ann Wagner, former Bush administration official Maria Cino and former RNC political director Gentry Collins.

The RNC's 168 members will choose a new chairman on January 14. And while candidates slowly tout endorsements from committee members, the next time they meet face-to-face will be January 3, when Americans for Tax Reform holds a candidate forum in Washington.

Outgoing Sen. Bob Bennett (R) knows first-hand the dangers facing his in-state colleague, Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), in 2012 at the Utah state GOP convention.

Bennett stunningly lost the Republican nomination at the GOP convention to Sen.-elect Mike Lee (R) this year despite an otherwise conservative record.

In a brief interview on Thursday, Bennett said it's too early to predict if Hatch will suffer the same fate but acknowledged overcoming a conservative challenge could be difficult.

"He will, I think, clearly face a challenge from within the party," Bennett said. "He always has, so that's nothing new."

Hatch's chances hinge on the political climate improving for moderates.

"If the climate doesn't change then he'll have a very tough convention, and he knows that," the outgoing senator said.

Appropriately, Bennett spoke to National Journal after speaking on a panel about the death of bipartisanship and civility in the Capitol. He was joined by Reps. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.), Chet Edward (D-Texas) and Mike Castle (R-Del.) -- three moderate lawmakers who each were defeated this year.

The Utah Republican had simple advice when asked how moderate Republicans can survive.

"Spend time with voters," he said. "That's the only solution."

"It's hard to hate someone you know," he said.

It looks like some House Democrats are trying to have it both ways on Pres. Obama's tax cut compromise that passed Thursday night.

Nearly 10 Democrats who vocally criticized the deal were among the 277 members who voted aye Thursday night.

The most obvious flip floppers are Democrats who signed Rep. Peter Welch's (D-Vt.) letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) declaring that the compromise was "fiscally irresponsible" and "grossly unfair."

Those Democrats are:

Danny Davis (D-Ill.)
Luis Gutiérrez (D-Ill.)
Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio)
David Price (D-N.C.)
Tim Ryan (D-Ohio)
Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.)
Betty Sutton (D-Ohio)

Rep. Joe Baca (D-Calif.) wasn't one of the 54 Democrats who signed Welch's letter last week, but he did put out a statement condemning the deal. "In the worst economy since the Great Depression, millionaires should be giving to charity," he said. "Unfortunately this compromise ensures they will be receiving charity from the government for another two years."

Another Democrat, Missouri Rep. William Lacy Clay didn't outright say he would oppose the legislation, but he did more than just hint that he had problems with it.

"The signature issue of the mid-term election was getting our fiscal house in order," Clay told the St. Louis Beacon last week. "If we're going to add $900 billion to the national credit card, where are the conservative Republicans who spent the entire midterm election campaigns screaming about deficits and cutting federal spending? Is it no longer a priority for them?"

Jamie Shufflebarger contributed to this post

Stephen Colbert goes after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) for threatening to make Congress work between Christmas and New Years: "But some people out there hate this holiday, like Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a.k.a. the albino raisin who stole Christmas."

Jay Leno pulls together clips of the best water works on Capitol Hill and wonders, "are the roles changing in Washington."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:11, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (R) stops by the Daily Show to weigh in on whether Congress should work after Christmas. Then let us know what you think in our Late Night Poll.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Friday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: The Iowa GOP sets the date for its presidential straw poll and a coinciding debate; Haley Barbour heading to CPAC; a potentially potent "Draft Sarah Palin" group registers with the FEC; Baron Hill passes on the Indiana governor's race and Jay Nixon lays the groundwork for his 2012 re-election bid in Missouri.

A quick scheduling note: The Starting Lineup will be going dark for the holidays starting next Monday. We wish you all a happy holiday season and we'll be back after the New Year.

Be sure to stay tuned to Hotline On Call, though, as we'll be rolling out several "Year In Review" features.

Mark Your Calendars...and Start Your Engines: The Iowa Republican Party announced late Thursday that the Iowa Straw Poll will be held on August 13, 2011. It will take place at Iowa State Univ. in Ames.

The straw poll will be paired with a debate that the Iowa GOP will host with Fox News two days earlier at the university.

The straw poll officially marks the beginning of the GOP contest, and with many of the potential contenders saying they won't decide whether they will running until the spring, it'll likely be a sprint to the straw poll. Per the Des Moines Register: "Tying the party fundraiser in Ames with the debate on Fox, an influential outlet for conservatives, will give incentive to candidates campaigning for Iowa's leadoff nominating caucuses to participate in the straw poll, state party Chairman Matt Strawn said.
'I think the opportunity to address not just Iowa caucus goers and straw poll attendees but to address the nation in a debate from Ames would be something that would be very difficult for a candidate to pass up,' Strawn said.

The Iowa Caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 6. http://bit.ly/gO5yEu, http://wapo.st/eddGvY, http://bit.ly/ie6uO6

Barbour To CPAC: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) is scheduled to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference, the organization announced Thursday. CPAC is a mandatory stop for presidential contenders and the move will stoke speculation that Barbour, at the very least, is keeping his 2012 options open. http://bit.ly/h8OpjT

Palin Rivals -- Prepare To Duck And Cover: A "Draft Sarah Palin" committee has registered with the FEC and the group behind the committee has a history of raising chunks of cash and airing hard hitting ads. Open Secrets found the filing by the California-based Republican Majority Campaign.

Here's the kicker: The group is registered as an independent expenditure group, which means it can raise unlimited sums of money and air as many attack ads as it wants. Open Secrets notes that the Republican Majority Campaign raised $3.6 million in the 2010 cycle, and has aired controversial commercials targeting Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Florida Gov. and 2010 Senate contender Charlie Crist (I).

Something tells me we're going to be hearing more from this group. The group's treasurer, Randy Goodwin, told Open Secrets that they are already considering television their main communication tool. "Television would be a much better media for this campaign and we will use it if we are successful in our other fund-raising efforts," he said.

The group has launched a website at www.DraftSarahPalin.us. It is currently pretty barebones, but it features an op-ed from veteran conservative strategist and chairman of ConservativeHQ.com Richard Viguerie (though they misspell his name in the byline).
Open Secrets: http://bit.ly/hqzXus
Website: http://www.draftsarahpalin.us/

The governor's race in Indiana -- a key pickup state for Barack Obama in 2008 -- has moved from a toss-up to a likely Republican win in 2012, according to the latest rankings from the Cook Political Report.

Democrats turned over three House seats in 2006, and Obama became the first Democratic presidential nominee since 1964 to win the state in 2008. But Republicans regained two of those congressional districts in 2010 as well as the Senate seat vacated by retiring Democrat Evan Bayh. The GOP also won control of the state House and a supermajority in the state Senate.

Making matters worse for Democrats, Bayh recently announced that he would not run for governor in 2012. Potential Democratic contenders include Rep. Joe Donnelly, outgoing Reps. Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, and Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominguez. On the Republican side, Rep. Mike Pence is viewed as the strongest candidate if he doesn't run for president. Other Republicans in the mix: Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman, outgoing state party chair Murray Clark, state Auditor Tim Berry, state House Speaker Brian Bosma, and state Senate President Pro-Tem David Long.

"Unless there is a remarkable shift in the political environment, which is not outside the realm of possibility, it seems that Democrats' hopes of winning the governorship are considerably dimmer without Bayh in the race,'' says the Cook Political Report. "This contest has a very long way to go since the candidate fields on both sides remain undefined, but Republicans begin as the favorites to hold the seat.''

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), a 2010 Senate contender, is taking aim at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, accusing it of abandoning him in favor of former WWE CEO Linda McMahon because of her substantial personal wealth.

Simmons jumped into the 2010 Connecticut Senate race early in the cycle and was highly-touted by the committee. The race evolved quickly, however, as McMahon got into the race, Sen. Chris Dodd (D) announced his retirement and the popular then-Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) launched his bid.

When Blumenthal entered the race, according to Simmons, the NRSC "pulled the plug" on his campaign in favor of McMahon because she had the resources to spend millions on the race.

"As a result," he said, "my national fundraising dried up."

McMahon went on to spend nearly $50 million of her own money on her Senate run and lost by double digits.

"I'm not a billionaire," Simmons said. "But I've won races."

Simmons' remarks are reminiscent of the NRSC's most significant nuisance in 2010 -- and one that it is already working to avoid in 2012. The committee took a significant amount of flak for endorsing and supporting candidates early in the cycle, some of whom went on to lose in primaries to anti-establishment, Tea Party contenders.

The former congressman seems to be criticizing the committee for the opposite -- that they didn't interfere in his primary enough. Simmons said he asked the NRSC to stick with him after Dodd dropped out of the race, but they didn't.

The NRSC, as well as Connecticut Republicans involved in the race, say the NRSC was careful to stay on the sidelines once McMahon jumped in.

"The NRSC was neutral in this primary and our message to all of the candidates was a simple one -- this race would be decided by the Republican primary voters in Connecticut and that's exactly happened," said NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh. "If Congressman Simmons or any other good potential candidate is interested in running in 2012 we'd be happy to sit down with them but again, it's ultimately voters in their states that will decide any primary races."

But a prevailing view among GOP strategists at the time was that once Blumenthal replaced Dodd on the ballot, McMahon would be a stronger candidate than Simmons, because her resources would force national Democrats to spend on the race - money that otherwise would have gone elsewhere.

Simmons' discontent with the NRSC may explain why he took the rather odd step of lingering around the Senate race after McMahon outperformed him at the state GOP convention. Simmons suspended his campaign at that point, but didn't immediately endorse McMahon and reminded voters a month later that he was still on the primary ballot. The move appeared to be in hopes that McMahon would commit a fatal misstep, allowing Republican primary voters to flock to Simmons at the last second.

Lob an unfair or untrue accusation in a race for public office at your own risk. If a tale about an opponent turns out to be false, a campaign opens itself to the wrath of newspaper editorial pages and the dreaded PolitiFact franchises, all while affording the opponent the opportunity to wiggle out of the attack.

In the race for Republican National Committee chairman, there is no PolitiFact and no editorial page cares enough to opine. That creates the perfect atmosphere for what has become, over the last two elections, one of the most underhanded contests in American politics today.

The 2009 contest, in which Michael Steele outlasted competitors after half a dozen ballots, was marked by a flurry of anonymous attacks of dubious provenance. Steele was hammered as a fake conservative; incumbent chairman Mike Duncan, who runs a bank in Inez, Ky., was accused of taking TARP funds (He didn't); and a steady stream of emails attacked candidates Saul Anuzis, Katon Dawson and Ken Blackwell.

This year is no different. Emails have already circulated accusing each contender of some unforgivable sin, though most are either inaccurate or misleading. Anuzis has come under fire from a group calling itself the Conservative Young Guns PAC (No such political action committee is registered with the FEC), while bloggers are picking up dissatisfaction with Wisconsin Republican Party chair Reince Priebus from some elements of his state's GOP.

The latest charge, leveled by FrumForum, accuses Priebus of working for a division of his Milwaukee-based law firm that promised to help clients obtain stimulus dollars. Priebus's name appeared in several places on the website, but Priebus himself denied working for the division.

"Reince is not a part of that Firm Team and his listing is an error on our website. I apologize for the confusion," firm partner Michael Green wrote to FrumForum reporter Tim Mak in response to an inquiry about Priebus's connection. Still, conservative bloggers are picking up the report and using it to raise questions about Priebus's candidacy.

Good Thursday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Polls show that Pres. Obama is using the tax cut compromise to rebound after the midterms; Bob Casey in good shape for his 2012 re-elect; the DSCC courts Joe Lieberman; an updated whip count of the RNC chairman's race; Mitch Daniels and Haley Barbour keep us waiting until spring and is Vicki Kennedy is keeping her options open about a Senate run after all.

An Obama Rebound? Two polls released Thursday show that Pres. Obama appears to have stemmed the bleeding from the Democrats' significant midterm losses, and stands to benefit from the tax cut compromise.

The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll finds that Obama's job approval rating is holding at a still-mediocre 45 percent, but that his efforts to work with Republicans -- such as on the tax cut compromise -- are popular. From the WSJ: "In all, 63 percent of Democrats polled said they wanted to see Democratic leaders in Washington make compromises to gain consensus on legislation, about the same percentage of independents who expressed that view. Just 29 percent of Democrats said they would rather see their elected leaders stick to their positions, even if that meant not reaching any consensus."

Fully 59 percent of respondents in the survey approve of the tax cut deal, and 61 percent say it is a fair deal.

Obama also stands to benefit in some crucial 2012 battlegrounds. A new Pennsylvania survey from Quinnipiac shows Obama's decision to compromise on taxes could pay dividends in the Keystone State, where the Democrats suffered significant losses last month. Nearly 70 percent of respondents in that poll said they approve of the compromise. Less than a quarter disapprove of it.

These poll numbers suggest this tax cut is good politically for the president. While the liberal wing of the Democratic caucus originally blasted the compromise, those in swing areas supported the compromise almost from day one. In particular, the deal is popular among independents and moderates in swing states. This is also why the compromise looks like it is going to pass the House on Thursday after making its way through the Senate on Wednesday.

Obama's image in Pennsylvania has also seen an uptick and is now right side up. Forty-four percent now approve of his job performance, while 43 percent disapprove. That's up from 49 percent disapproving of the president in July and 46 percent approving. Obama is also preferred over a Republican candidate in 2012 by a 41 percent to 37 percent margin.

WSJ/NBC Poll: http://on.wsj.com/h59X6M
Quinnipiac Poll: http://bit.ly/feITSP

Casey At Bat: One more finding from that Quinnipiac poll: Sen. Bob Casey (D) appears to be in decent shape as he heads into his 2012 re-election bid. For Casey, 39 percent of respondents approve of his performance, while 29 percent disapprove. He also leads a generic Republican 43 percent to 35 percent in the poll. http://bit.ly/feITSP

Delay Of Game: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) appear perfectly content to keep us waiting on whether they will run for president. Daniels told WANE-TV on Wednesday that he'll wait until after Indiana's state legislative session...so, most likely May.

Barbour also indicated in an interview with the Clarion Ledger that he'd wait until the spring.

Barbour and Daniels remarks aren't new -- Hotline On Call reported the same thing last month. But they show that at this point it looks like all the potential contenders are waiting a long as possible before officially announcing a bid. http://bit.ly/bmnOrt, http://bit.ly/dQPoAC, http://bit.ly/gnE49J

It doesn't take long to fall off the pedestal. Nine months ago, with the passage of health care reform, Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was being hailed as the most powerful House Speaker of the past century. But according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll she was the political figure who had the worst year in 2010. Pres. Obama was the runner-up. Conversely, the pol who had the best year was John Boehner (R-Ohio), the Speaker-in-waiting who will take power when the GOP House majority is sworn in next year.

Political Insiders in both parties had little sympathy for the outgoing Speaker. One Democratic Insider said, "She lost the majority and then made herself look worse by desperately holding on to a leadership position." Another Democrat observed that Pelosi "went from third in line to the presidency to powerless with shrunken caucus and remains in denial." The target of scores of Republican ads across the country, a Republican noted that, "It was her face on the front of that GOP bulldozer. Whether the loss [of the House] was her fault or not, she has taken the biggest hit."

Overall, former Alaska governor and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin was runner-up to Boehner for having the best year in 2010, but her ranking was due to the votes of Democrats, not Republicans: 17 percent of the 107 Democratic Insiders who responded to the poll this week said Palin had the best year in 2010, but only 8 percent of 106 Republican Insiders felt that way. Marco Rubio, the incoming Republican Florida Senator and the party's "great Latino hope," edged Palin among Republican Insiders with 9 percent of their votes. Democratic Insiders believe that as the face of the Tea Party who can command media attention Palin will be force in the GOP 2012 nominating contest.

Insiders felt Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) had a pretty good year, especially since many had written off his re-election prospects. Not only did his party keep their majority in the Senate, he hung onto his job as the chief. Former Pres. Bill Clinton, reputation burnished as the surrogate most in demand by Democrats in the midterms, and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), who roped in millions of dollars for the Republican Governors Association, were also winners in 2010.

Meanwhile, Insiders in both parties felt that Obama's tax deal will put him a stronger position when he's dealing with congressional Republicans. Less than a quarter of the Insiders in both parties thought he would be weaker. But that may not help the president bring his party together. Said one Democrat, Obama "needed to show Republicans he is willing to work with them and needed to show Democrats he will work around them if they are intransigent." Another one averred, "He's going to cave on a lot of issues in order to be 'bipartisan.'"

Pres. Obama's deal with Republicans to extend the Bush-era tax cuts is too much for Jimmy Fallon to handle. Fortunately NBC "Nightly News" anchor Brian Williams steps in to help Fallon slow jam the news. Fallon, in slow jam: "Democrats say Obama can't satisfy their legislative desires 'cause he's gone soft. Is he cheating on them with the Republicans?"

David Letterman highlights the newest category in the Golden Globe Awards, "Outstanding Performance By An Animal Killed by Sarah Palin."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:25 when RNC chair Michael Steele joins Jon Stewart via satellite.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

During political campaigns, candidates' significant others -- whether willingly or unwillingly -- often become involved in some capacity. Less frequently, they actually play a defining of role in the race. Here, we look back at five significant others who influenced races in either helpful, unhelpful, or just amusing ways this year.

1. Griff Harsh: California gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman's (R) husband was suddenly thrust into the spotlight in the midst of Whitman's former housekeeper scandal. Harsh allegedly wrote a note on a 2003 letter that raised the possibility that the family knew its then-housekeeper was undocumented.

2. Anne Gust Brown: While California Gov.-elect Jerry Brown's (D) wife was generally considered a big asset, serving as one of his top advisers, it's possible that she also caused the biggest scandal of Brown's campaign. California's attention finally turned away from Whitman's housekeeper scandal when one of Brown's associates was caught referring to Whitman as a "whore" on an answering machine. Fox News reported that it was Brown's wife who made the comment, quoting a source saying "The person who said that word is someone who can't be fired... Jerry's wife can't be fired."

On the other hand, one of Brown's best comments during the campaign was inspired by his wife. During a debate, explaining things would be different from last time her was governor, Brown said "One more thing. I now have a wife. And I come home at night. I don't try to close down the bars in Sacramento like I used to when I was governor."

3. Patrice Tierney: Massachusetts Rep. John Tierney's (D) wife was convicted of federal tax fraud on Oct. 6, as her husband waged a re-election campaign. Patrice pled guilty to aiding and abetting the filing of false tax returns for her fugitive brother. Tierney maintained that his wife had been misled and betrayed by her brother.

Pres. Obama is still in good standing among women voters who supported him in 2008 but abandoned Democrats in 2010, according to a new Democratic survey released Wednesday.

The survey was conducted for EMILY's List, a group that backs Democratic women who support abortion rights, by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group -- a Democratic polling firm. The group surveyed 608 women who voted for Obama in 2008 but did not support a Democrat in 2010. Of that 608, a third voted for a Republican this year, three fifths did not vote and the remainder voted for a third party candidate.

The poll's findings among this swing bloc of voters are undoubtedly welcome news in the White House. Obama is still viewed favorably by 71 percent of these voters, while only 19 percent have a positive view of the Republican Party. More, 57 percent said that Democrats have a better understanding of issues and concerns that matter to them. Only 14 percent said Republicans did.

The poll also found that Obama would carry these voters over Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) by a huge margin if she runs for president -- indicating that Palin is not well liked among this swing female demographic. Fully 90 percent of the women respondents said they would vote for Obama over Palin. That includes 62 percent of women who voted for a Republican this year.

Still, the survey results don't mean that these women will necessarily flock back to Obama in 2012 -- something the pollsters noted.

"Most importantly, to win these voters back in 2012, Democratic candidates must rise above all the shouting and more clearly show women that they can provide the leadership to move the country forward and address the economic challenges of working families today," they wrote.

House Republican Conference chairman Mike Pence will vote against a tax compromise crafted by Pres. Obama and the White House, he said Tuesday night during an interview with conservative radio host Sean Hannity.

"I've been fighting since last summer to extend all the tax rates. I said on national radio over the summer that we needed to make sure that no American would see a tax increase on January first, not one," Pence said.

"And frankly I've struggled with what the right thing to do here is. But at the end of the day, I've just come to the conclusion that the American people did not vote for more stimulus, they did not vote for more deficits, they did not vote for more debt, they did not vote for more uncertainty in the tax code on November the second. And therefore I will not vote for this tax deal when it comes to the floor of the House of Representatives. I believe it is a bad deal for taxpayers that will do little to create jobs, and I cannot support it."

Pence's opposition gives him the chance to make inroads with the most conservative voters if he decides to take a shot at the White House in 2012. Pence can draw contrasts with any other members of Congress who vote for the bill then run for president. What's more, that contrast is going to look pretty consistent; Pence also voted against the Troubled Asset Relief Program, back in October 2008.

Pence is the latest conservative to announce opposition to the bill making its way through the Senate. In Congress, he joins Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and Reps. Steve King (R-Iowa), Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) in blasting the measure as unpaid-for spending and further government stimulus.

Pence is also the second potential White House contender to announce opposition. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney said, in a Tuesday op-ed in USA Today, that he does not support the bill. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has not said he would oppose the bill, but he did tell Fox News host Greta Van Susteren on Tuesday: "It's not the package I would have negotiated."

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) scored a victory late Tuesday when a judge ruled that the 2010 election results may be certified before the prolonged legal battle is brought to a close.

The ruling means that Murkowski should be certified the winner of her race with Republican Joe Miller before the next Congress begins on Jan. 3. Senators are scheduled to be sworn in on Jan. 5. That would ensure that Murkowski wouldn't lose any seniority in the chamber because of a delay in certification.

U.S. District Judge Ralph Beistline, who originally delayed the certification of the election results in light of Miller's challenges, said that if Miller eventually wins his lawsuit and it influences the election results, the state could revoke the certification.

Miller is challenging how Alaska counted write-in ballots, arguing that ballots that did not have Murkowski's name written as it was on her candidacy declaration should be thrown out. A lower state court ruled against Miller last week but he has appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court. That hearing is scheduled for Friday.

According to the Anchorage Daily News, the Beistline's ruling was not all bad news for Miller. Beistline also indicated that if Miller loses in the state Supreme Court, he'd allow Miller to bring his case to in the federal court.

Murkowski's camp said in a statement that it hopes the legal battle will be resolved before Christmas.

"We are encouraged that Judge Beistline has recognized the need to resolve this case in order for the state to proceed with certifying the results of the election in which Senator Murkowski was clearly victorious," said Murkowski campaign manager Kevin Sweeney. "[The] order illustrates the judge's commitment to decide this quickly."

Good Wednesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup: On the radar today: John Thune sounds increasingly like a presidential contender as he takes on Mitt Romney on the tax cut compromise and schedules an appearance on New Hampshire radio; Rep. Tim Murphy floats his name as a possible challenger to Bob Casey; Tea Party favorite Ed Martin considers a Missouri Senate run and one potential Tea Party challenge to Olympia Snowe fizzles.

Thune Alert: No one has officially declared they are running yet, but the 2012 Republican presidential primary kicked into full swing on Tuesday afternoon and South Dakota Sen. John Thune (R) was right in the middle of it. Thune took to the Senate floor Tuesday and roundly criticized others for taking shots at the tax cut compromise.

"It's easy to stand on the sidelines and criticize this proposal," Thune said. "And it's perhaps even politically expedient to stand on the sidelines and criticize this proposal. But let me make one thing very clear...advocating against this tax proposal is to advocate for a tax increase."

The remarks were a not-so-thinly veiled swipe at former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), who came out against the deal on Tuesday in a USA Today op-ed.

Thune and Romney weren't the only potential contenders getting in their talking points on the tax cut framework. Indiana Rep. Mike Pence (R) put himself in the camp with Romney, saying he will oppose the deal in the House. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) came down in the middle, telling Greta Van Susteren that "we just can't let taxes go up" but that "it's not the package I would have negotiated."

It makes sense that this issue - taxes and spending -- has become the vehicle for the launch of the Republican contest, even as the compromise has been supported by a large swath of the electorate, liberals and conservatives alike. But the statements have been somewhat surprising -- from Romney tacking right to Thune's willingness to go straight after Romney. Get some rest over the holidays -- it looks like the Republican field is ready to sprint out of the gate after the New Year.
Thune: http://abcn.ws/efSouU
Pawlenty: http://bit.ly/ed0yEC
Pence: http://bit.ly/gl82Mn
Romney: http://usat.ly/gHE1TM

In Case You Were Wondering About Thune's Odds: Thune is scheduled to make an appearance on a New Hampshire radio show Thursday at 10:30 a.m. 'Nuff said. http://bit.ly/fcjPtw

And Mark Your Calendars: The Republican presidential contenders will square off in the first New Hampshire debate on June 7, 2011. The debate will be hosted by CNN, WMUR and the New Hampshire Union-Leader. http://bit.ly/eDClbU

Wanted: Casey Challenger: National Journal's Alex Roarty, a veteran of Pennsylvania politics, has a great breakdown of potential challengers to Sen. Bob Casey (D). In short, not many are throwing their hat in the ring. Roarty uncovered a new potential candidate, however, who is considering the race: Rep. Tim Murphy (R). Roarty: "Rep. Tim Murphy, who represents suburban Pittsburgh, has informally discussed a possible run with party leaders, spokeswoman Susan Mosychuk confirmed. But she added: 'The Senate bid isn't something the congressman is pushing or stating or even organizing toward.'" http://bit.ly/gy0bOK

Jon Stewart thinks Pres. Obama made a mistake letting Bill Clinton run a White House briefing on his own: "You're going to leave that guy , the Michael Jordan of press briefings, in charge...while you go to a Christmas party. You know Mr. President that's the kind of cool confidence that borders on delusional."

Jimmy Kimmel on the cold weather across the country: "I don't know how she did it but the whole country is suddenly turning into Sarah Palin's Alaska."

Today's Must See Moment -- 1:54 press secretary Robert Gibbs channels The Price Is Right host Bob Barker.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

For Democrats to hold on to the Senate in 2012 -- when they must defend 23 seats -- they'll need to offset likely losses with every potential pickup opportunity. A quick survey of which senators are up for re-election reveals what would appear to be the Democrats' number one target: Republican Sen. Scott Brown of deep blue Massachusetts.

But even among Democrats in the Bay State, there is a strong sentiment that Brown isn't as vulnerable as many might think. From his well-formed centrist brand, to his proven ability to raise money, to the lack of a well-funded Democratic challenger, it's becoming clear that Brown is no dead man walking in the halls of the Senate.

"On a scale of one to 10, where one is not vulnerable and 10 is very vulnerable," said veteran Massachusetts Democratic consultant and Boston Globe columnist Dan Payne, "He's probably about a four."

There are several reasons why Republicans are confident in Brown's 2012 chances and Democrats fear him. First are his poll numbers. A Public Policy Polling (IVR) survey at the beginning of December found Brown enjoying a 53 percent approval rating, making him one of the most popular politicians in the state. In every head-to-head matchup, he led.

Brown has also forged a bipartisan brand, which has found a welcome home among Massachusetts' unenrolled voters, which compose more than 50 percent of the electorate. Most recently, Brown has backed the compromise between Pres. Obama and Senate Republicans, showing he is willing to work across the aisle -- at least some of the time.

"He's not a partisan figure," said Eric Fehrnstrom, one of Brown's advisers. "People know his main focus is doing what is right for the people of Massachusetts."

What Democrat will run against Brown is also very much in the air. Vicki Kennedy has right of first refusal to her late husband's seat, but Massachusetts Democrats believe her when she says she isn't interested.

"Can Scott Brown be beaten?" asked Boston Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh. "Yes. Will it be tough? Yes. Who is going to do that? No one knows."

Rep. Michael Capuano (D) looks to be positioning himself for another shot at the seat after losing in the 2010 special election primary to Attorney General Martha Coakley. Capuano appeared to be playing to the liberal Democratic base in Massachusetts with recent comments that Pres. Obama could face a presidential primary challenge because of the deal he cut on extending the Bush-era tax cuts.

Monday's decision in Virginia that a key part of Pres. Obama's health care reform bill is unconstitutional has cast a renewed spotlight on his signature legislative achievement and Republicans are using the development to go on offense in different ways in races across the country.

While the decision affected just a portion of the law -- namely, the coverage mandate -- it was the first direct ruling on the bill's constitutionality in a case brought by a state. It also makes it more likely that a challenge to the legislation will head to the Supreme Court, though this case still has several more hurdles to clear before it gets there.

And though the ruling's ultimate impact on the way the law is applied is yet to be determined, Monday's development -- at the very least -- serves as a reminder that the health care law as a campaign issue is not going away any time soon. Following Election Day, matters being discussed in the lame duck session in Congress including tax cuts, the new START treaty, and the debate over repealing "Don't Ask Don't Tell" have been in the spotlight.

Much like the debate over a controversial immigration measure in Arizona that exploded all across the country earlier this year, the ruling is likely to result in a continued outpouring of reactions from political figures. Democrats will again be forced to vigorously defend the law while many Republicans go directly after it. Some of the early responses to the ruling came from candidates, committees and potential candidates involved in races likely to be very competitive in 2012.

In Virginia, former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.), who appears to be positioning himself for a rematch against Sen. Jim Webb (D), sent out a release on the issue rapidly, even before some news organizations reported the word of the judge's ruling. In it, he took direct aim at Webb.

"This case is a reminder that Sen. Jim Webb ignored the views and values of the people of Virginia with his many votes, including the one for Senate passage last Christmas eve, for this unfair, harmful, unconstitutional federal government takeover of health care and its odious mandates," Allen said.

Guy Harrison will lead the National Republican Congressional Committee for another two years as executive director, according to an NRCC source familiar with the move.

Harrison staying on means that the leadership of the NRCC -- which guided Republicans to a 63-seat gain in 2010 -- will remain largely unchanged in the 2012 cycle. NRCC Chair Pete Sessions (R-Texas) is also staying on for another two years.

Other members of the NRCC's 2010 team are getting promotions. Mike Shields, who led the committee's independent expenditure arm in 2010, is moving to political director. And Paul Lindsay, who served as press secretary this year, will be communications director.

Ken Spain, the committee's 2010 communications director, is heading into the private sector. Brian Walsh, the committee's 2010 political director, is also leaving to pursue new opportunities.

On the financial side, former deputy Jenny Drucker will become finance director.

These moves were originally reported by The Fix.

While much of the staff is remaining the same, there is one notable change. Johnny DeStefano, who worked as the NRCC's deputy executive director in 2010, will be heading into the Speaker's office, according to a House aide.

Bill Clinton gets all the attention after Pres. Obama leaves their joint press conference to attend a Christmas party. Jimmy Fallon, on Clinton being back in the White House: "Clinton was like, 'Just do me a solid. Text me when anyone but Hillary walks under the mistletoe.'"

Jon Stewart puts together a tribute to the 9/11 "non-responders."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:10 where David Letterman takes a look at great Presidential Comebacks. Then vote on which President you think had the best comeback in our Late Night Poll.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup: It's a busy one -- here's what's on the radar: Mitt Romney comes out against the tax compromise; Michael Steele stuns, announces bid for another term at the helm of the RNC; John Ensign's tricky position on that framework; George Allen and Jim Webb would start their rematch in a dead heat; a possible return of Linda McMahon and an Indiana holding pattern.

Romney Weighs In: Former Massachusetts Gov. and potential 2012 contender Mitt Romney (R) has come out against Pres. Obama's tax cut compromise, staking out a position that is farther to the right than some of the Republicans he could face in the presidential primary. In a USA Today op-ed, Romney roundly criticizes the deal the president reached with congressional Republicans.

"But intermixed with the benefits are considerable costs of consequence," Romney wrote. "Given the unambiguous message that the American people sent to Washington in November, it is difficult to understand how our political leaders could have reached such a disappointing agreement. The new, more conservative Congress should reach a better solution."

The whole op-ed is worth a read. Just askin', though, but isn't this going to anger Republicans who worked to get this deal? We're guessing Romney doesn't have too many friends in the Senate Republican caucus today. And while Romney's arguments are familiar to any fiscal conservative who has expressed wariness with the deal, Romney's positioning seems as much about presidential politics as his policy views.

The op-ed positions Romney to the right of potential White House contenders John Thune (R-S.D.) -- who voted for the measure on Monday -- and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), who said in an interview with National Journal that the deal is the "best anyone can hope for at this point." Romney needs something to get himself in good stead with fiscal conservatives in light of his health care law in Massachusetts, and it looks like he's betting on the tax compromise as the way to do it.
Romney op-ed: http://usat.ly/gHE1TM
Huckabee interview: http://bit.ly/hhi7CW

Steele's Stunner: Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele defied expectations Monday night, announcing he will seek a second term at the helm of the GOP. The move brings more chaos to the chairmanship election -- set to be held Jan. 14 -- as half a dozen other contenders are also running and several have already announced supporters.

On a conference call with committee members, Steele acknowledged his missteps.

"I wanted to tonight come to you, my bosses, as your employee with a record that only you can judge, based upon directions you made clear to me from the very beginning," Steele said, according to a source on the call. "Yes, I have stumbled along the way, but have always accounted to each of you for such shortcomings. I've made no excuses. I've told no lies. I have no hidden agenda."

Steele also directly addressed what has been his biggest stumbling block: Fundraising.

"We have aggressively tried to get our donors back," he said. "That is relational. We have are getting new donors -- including siblings, off spring of our major donors. It's just the beginning. I want to make sure this effort has not been on the shelf. We put it out there as best we could. We will continue to cultivate major donors."

Of course, it's not just the lack of money raised that has been at the heart of Steele's woes -- it's been what some would frame as excessive spending on non-campaign expenditures that have resulted in the committee's financial straits.

Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride to the RNC elections -- with plenty of sniping, maneuvering and political one-upmanship along the way.

The Hotline has a rundown of Steele's remarks and reactions from other chair candidates here: http://bit.ly/h3VJS1
And be sure to check back in with The Hotline's Whip Count of the race, which will be updated throughout the week: http://bit.ly/dSPDNnV

Ensign Goes It Alone: Speaking of the tax cut compromise, one of the five Republicans who voted against the measure on Monday was Nevada Sen. John Ensign (R), whose personal scandals make his 2012 re-election bid tricky. But whether Ensign will vote on final passage of the compromise is murky.

Ensign told the Las Vegas Review-Journal earlier Monday that he opposed the measure because it did not offset new spending. He then voted against the measure Monday afternoon. But following the vote, he seemed to still leave the door cracked open to ultimately voting for it -- say that he was "leaning strongly toward" voting nay again.

Looking at the politics of the situation, Ensign may be trying to separate himself from Republican Rep. Dean Heller (Nev.), who is considering a run for the Senate. Based on previous statements, Heller is likely to support the compromise. Ensign is probably looking to draw a contrast on the issue since the last notable vote where the two voted differently was the now-unpopular TARP, where Ensign voted yes and Heller voted no. http://bit.ly/f1L8tu

Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele will seek a second two-year term, he told committee members on Monday, further scrambling a campaign that has already attracted several candidates hungry to replace the incumbent.

"We fired Pelosi, so now we must increase our resources and strengthen ourselves further at the grassroots level," Steele said Monday during a private conference call with the committee's 168 voting members. "The path to 2012 and 270 electoral votes will require leadership."

"I wanted to tonight come to you, my bosses, as your employee with a record that only you can judge, based upon directions you made clear to me from the very beginning," Steele said. "Yes, I have stumbled along the way, but have always accounted to each of you for such shortcomings. I've made no excuses. I've told no lies. I have no hidden agenda."

"Going forward, I ask for your support and your vote for a second term. I believe our work is not done, and my commitment has not ended."

Steele's announcement throws the contest into flux. The vast bulk of the 168 members of the RNC have declined to publicly support any of the candidates, and Steele himself can only count on about one quarter of committee members for support, according to those counting votes both on his behalf and in hopes of defeating him.

He will spend the next month defending his tenure to members across the country. But while he will focus on major gains Republicans made in the midterm elections, Steele will have to answer other questions.

Steele won the chairmanship in 2009 after besting an incumbent chairman and several long-time committee members. His path to re-election will be difficult after two years marked by gaffes, both major and minor, thrust him unwillingly into the spotlight.

Steele has faced grumbling from committee members and conservative activists for comments suggesting abortion was an individual choice; saying his party wasn't ready to lead; and implying that criticism of his time in office had to do with the fact that he is African American. He had to apologize to radio host Rush Limbaugh for calling Limbaugh's show "incendiary" and "ugly," and he defended himself and fired staff for a post-fundraiser party at a risque Los Angeles nightclub.

Perhaps most damaging, Steele has been accused of allowing the party's major donor program to drastically erode. While small-dollar fundraising has grown, many of those who traditionally wrote five-figure checks felt neglected. That, in turn, hurt the committee's political chances, Steele critics said.

But Steele allies pointed to major gains the party has made during his tenure. Steele's political team invested millions in governors races in Virginia and New Jersey in 2009, giving Republicans hope they could win even when Pres. Obama maintained high approval ratings.

In November, Republicans won back the House after the RNC spent millions on voter turnout efforts. But even that achievement came amid controversy. Several state party chairmen said they had not received the amount of funding they were initially promised, and RNC political director Gentry Collins penned a scathing memo accusing Steele of leaving Democratic seats on the table by failing to fully fund turnout programs.

"It disturbs me to no end to hear people characterize our efforts ... in some negative way," Steele told RNC members Monday night.

NEW YORK, N.Y. -- Two of the biggest culprits of today's partisan gridlock, according to participants at today's "No Labels" conference: gerrymandered voting districts and closed primary elections.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg -- one of the few politicians at the event who has left not one but two political parties -- is advocating major voting reforms in his state.

"The natural thing for politicians is to want to go from election cycle to election cycle...and not have to run the risk of being unemployed and having to go into private sector -- which scares the bejeezus out of them,'' he said. "They do what you would expect them to do-- they make sure they don't have competitive races."

Ellen Friedin, who spearheaded a constitutional amendment in Florida to take politics out of redistricting, noted that 75 percent of the state officeholders are Republican, yet there are 700,000 more Democratic than Republican registered voters.

"What does that tell you?'' asked Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, a former Republican-turned-independent who recently lost a U.S. Senate bid. "They did a very good job of (gerrymandering) ten years ago.''

Also on site was California Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, who helped pass a measure that will allow the top two vote getters in the primaries, regardless of party, to advance to the general election.

Two former top officials at the Republican National Committee want the opportunity to lead the party, entering the race to replace RNC chairman Michael Steele just hours before the incumbent is expected to quit.

Former RNC political director Gentry Collins made official his bid for the post today, less than a month after quitting while issuing a stern rebuke of Steele's fundraising practices.

Collins will make his bid official in a letter to be delivered today to the 168 RNC members, the FrumForum reported.

Meanwhile, former Republican convention chief executive officer Maria Cino announced she would launch her long-expected campaign in another letter to members.

"Over these past few weeks, I have talked with almost every member of the Republican National Committee and deeply appreciate your observations, thoughts, and ideas," Cino wrote to members. "I have listened very carefully to you. I have the experience and qualifications needed to accomplish the very difficult tasks that lie ahead."

Both Collins and Cino have been taking clear steps toward a run for weeks. Collins, who quit his post at the RNC in mid-November, has begun traveling the country and collecting endorsements. Cino has support from several prominent Republicans, holding a fundraiser with former Vice President Dick Cheney and former RNC chairman Ed Gillespie, among other prominent party officials.

Ever since the framework of Pres. Obama's compromise on extending the Bush-era tax cuts there has been one member of the liberal wing of the Democratic House caucus that has been particularly outspoken in her support of the deal: Nevada Rep. Shelley Berkley (D).

Berkley has voiced her backing of the framework on the House floor and told her Democratic colleagues they should also support the deal in a closed door meeting that got so testy that other members consoled her afterward.

Back in Nevada, Berkley's full throated defense of the compromise -- which now looks more likely to pass -- has strategists wondering whether she is moving toward a Senate run. Berkley would be a leading Democratic candidate to take on Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) in 2012.

"Nevada is pretty pragmatic in its politics and I think that Shelley Berkley demonstrates that," said Nevada Democratic strategist Dan Hart. "I would have to believe a potential Senate run in 2012 isn't out of her mind -- its probably in the forefront of her mind."

In an interview with Hotline On Call, Berkley said she is indeed considering a Senate campaign but insisted that her support for Obama's tax compromise has nothing to do with that.

"A possible Senate run has nothing whatsoever to do with my decision on this issue," she said.

Berkley can tick off a litany of reasons why the tax compromise is good for her district. Chief among them is the extension of unemployment benefits. Officially, her district has about 15 percent unemployment -- among the highest in the nation. Unofficially, Berkley estimates the rate may be as high as 20 percent.

"When you add it all up, there was never a question of where I was going to be on this compromise," she said. "It was not a matter with me of being disappointed that the president didn't negotiate a stronger package. This is the package in front of us. It's good for the people of Nevada, so I'm voting for it, plain and simple."

Even so, it's hard to avoid the political optics of her backing the framework. Berkley has had a very liberal voting record in the House, further to the left of many parts of Nevada like Reno, Elko, Pahrump and Dayton - all of which lie outside her district but are important to a statewide contender.

"If you were thinking of a statewide run," said Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston, "if you were seen as an unreconstructed liberal, if you wanted to show you could get moderate/conservative votes outside your super-Democratic district, this would be the right political move, too, to increase your statewide viability."

NEW YORK, N.Y. -- In an age of hyper partisanship, will a legitimate, viable third party emerge?

That was one of the questions that emerged during the first panel discussion at the launch of "No Labels" in New York.

MSNBC host and former Republican Congressman Joe Scarborough said it's "inevitable" that third-party candidates will start winning -- if the major parties continue to fail to tackle the national debt and energy independence.

"The practical barriers to a national third party are so substantial,'' disagreed outgoing Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.). "More likely, one of the two existing parties will get it.''

Asked to rate the partisanship in Washington on a scale of 1 to 10, Republican political analyst David Gergen pegged it at 15. He said the spirit of the World War II generation, that we are Americans first and partisans second, has been eroded.

Newly elected Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia said he was struck at his first Armed Services committee meeting how the Democrats and Republicans sat apart - unlike they do at committee meetings in his home state.

Bayh agreed that the caucus system needs to change. "It's almost tribal,'' he said, adding that there were only three times during his 12 years in the Senate that Democrats and Republicans sat down and listened to each other.

"The whole notion of principled comprise seems to have gotten a dirty name on the far left and the far right,'' said Bayh, who cited the divisive political climate when he decided not to run for re-election. "If you see people being exceedingly partisan or exceedingly ideological, don't support them. Join the raging center.''

NEW YORK, N.Y. -- The Beatles' "Come Together" and David Bowie's "Changes" set the tone at the launch of No Labels, a new national organization that aims to turn down the volume of partisan bickering and tackle the nation's problems.

"Welcome to our little Woodstock of Democracy,'' co-founder and veteran Republican strategist Mark McKinnon told the hundreds of people gathered at Columbia University in New York.

The crowd includes Washington insiders, bloggers from farflung corners of the world, college students and more than a few politicians who pride themselves on working across the aisle.

South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis (R), who lost his seat earlier this year to a Republican challenger who questioned his conservative bona fides, talked about his trips to Iraq and Afghanistan. Nobody asks a soldier about party affiliation, he said.

"The ties that bind us as a nation are stronger than the ties that blind us to an ideology,'' he said.

Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley of Iowa, who spoke next, called Inglis "a conservative Republican and a good friend of mine. I think it's a tragedy that we're losing Bob in the House of Representatives.''

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, a former teachers union member and self-described progressive Democrat, said he wasn't afraid to criticize his own party. He called the teachers union the "biggest defender of the status quo.''

New York Times columnist David Brooks urged participants to ask their ideogically rigid friends: "How can you love your country when you hate half of it?''

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin continues to be a highly polarizing figure, with a whopping 57 percent viewing her unfavorably according to a new poll.

The Bloomberg survey, released Monday, also found that the negative feelings about Palin are particularly strong. A third -- 33 percent -- said they view Palin "very unfavorably." That's the same percentage that viewed her favorably cumulatively -- respondents who either viewed her "somewhat" or "very" favorably (!).

The survey results indicate that Palin faces a significant image problem as she decides to run for president.

Just look at how Pres. Obama's numbers compare. Obama scored a net negative job approval rating -- 48 percent said they disapprove of his performance as president while 47 percent approved, which is in line with other polls and shows the Bloomberg survey isn't a particularly good poll for the president. However, 52 percent view Obama favorably while 44 percent view him unfavorably.

More troubling for Palin is that it may be tough for her to change that perception. Only 10 percent are unsure of their opinion of her.

Notably, the Democratic Party (48 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable), the GOP (43 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable) and even the Tea Party (37 percent favorable, 41 percent unfavorable) all received higher marks than Palin.

The Bloomberg poll was conducted Dec. 4 to 7, surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele will announce whether he will seek a second term in the spotlight Monday night, ending a month of speculation about the controversial chairman's future at a time when his allies have begun seeking other alternatives.

Steele's actual decision remains a closely guarded secret. Even his top advisors, both inside and outside the committee, say they don't know which direction he will take. But a series of high-level defections has undermined the coalition that got Steele elected in 2009, suggesting his path to another term, if he decides to run in the Jan. 14 election, will be difficult.

During his tenure, Steele cultivated an inner circle of about 30 advisors, out of the RNC's 168 voting members, who served as unofficial liaisons to the rest of the committee. But that circle has shrunk in recent weeks as formerly close allies began informing Steele they would no longer back his candidacy.

The most visible defection came earlier this month, when Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus said he would run for the party's top spot himself. Priebus served as Steele's closest ally during the 2009 bid, and Steele rewarded Priebus's support by naming him general counsel. Priebus quit that post earlier this month.

Priebus's candidacy created a hole in Steele's kitchen cabinet. So far, at least five one-time Steele supporters have said publicly they will back the Wisconsin chairman.

Other candidates, too, have taken some of Steele's support. Former Michigan state party chairman Saul Anuzis has support from Delaware Party chair Tom Ross, who served as a whip on Steele's vote-counting team in 2009. And Tennessee RNC member John Ryder, whom Steele appointed to serve on several key committees, will back former RNC co-chairman Ann Wagner. Even Steele's staff has defected; former RNC political director Gentry Collins is running for chairman himself.

But Steele allies always believed they started their campaign with at least 18 of the 85 votes needed to secure a win, thanks to the chairman's commitment to involving traditionally overlooked outlying territories. The RNC grants the same number of votes to those territories -- Guam, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico -- as it does to a state. Traditionally, those territories, joined by Hawaii, vote in an 18-vote bloc that provides them power where they might otherwise have none.

Democrats aren't happy with Pres. Obama for making a deal on the Bush-era tax cuts. SNL Weekend Update's Seth Meyers, on Democrats saying Obama caved to Republicans: "Man if other Democrats think you caved, you really caved. That's like the chess club president calling you a nerd."

Jimmy Fallon isn't sure about former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin's (R) humanitarian trip to Haiti: "Cause if there's one thing that's reassuring it's seeing Sarah Palin above you in a helicopter."

Today's Must See Moment -- 0:41 Obama realizes he is suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Michael Steele makes his (last?) move; No Labels launches in New York City; Evan Bayh passes on the Indiana governor's race; Rahm Emanuel set to defend his Illinois residency; Ron Paul weighs another presidential bid and the pressure starts to mount on the Maine Tea Party's mystery Senate candidate.

Steele Make His Move: All eyes will be on RNC Chair Michael Steele on Monday as he is expected to announce whether he will seek a second term at the helm of the committee. Steele is scheduled to hold a conference call Monday evening to declare his intentions. At this point, it looks like Steele would have a decidedly uphill fight to retain his job. A handful of challengers have already announced their candidacies for the job, and four of those are already releasing who they have lined up as backers. One contender, Wisconsin GOP Chair and former Steele ally Reince Priebus, is raiding Steele's kitchen cabinet for supporters.
http://bit.ly/i9z71i
The Hotline's Whip Count: http://bit.ly/dSPDNn

Labels? We Don't Need No Stinkin' Labels: No Labels, a new, well-funded group seeking to emphasize centrist policy solutions to the country's problems, will launch Monday in New York City. The group has already garnered significant media attention because of the big names supporting it. Among those who will speak at the event on Monday: Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), outgoing Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.), former Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), Rep. Bob Inglis (R-S.C.), New York Times columnist David Brooks, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough and, of course, .New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

It's notable that most of the politicians backing the group are ones who have been burned by ideological elements within their own parties. (There's something about politicians not "seeing the light" until they lose.) Castle and Inglis both lost Republican primaries against more-conservative challengers this year, Lieberman lost a Democratic Senate primary in 2006 before winning as an independent candidate, and Davis opted not to run for the Senate in 2008 because of the strength of conservative party activists in the nomination process.

Check out the group's website below. The group has lined up an impressive list of strategists from both sides of the aisle, including Republican message guru Mark McKinnon and big league Democratic operative Nancy Jacobson. http://nolabels.org

The event, of course, will further the speculation that Bloomberg is considering a run for president and could capitalize on the framework set up for this group. Bloomberg, however, again denied that he would run on "Meet The Press" Sunday. http://nyti.ms/en01Li

Be sure to check back with Hotline On Call throughout the day. National Journal political correspondent Beth Reinhard will be filing observations and notes from the event.

Bayh, Bayh, Bayh: Retiring Sen. and former Gov. Evan Bayh (D) announced over the weekend that he will not run for governor of Indiana in 2012, sparking speculation about who will run on the Democratic side. "After careful consideration, I have concluded that the appropriate decision is not to be a candidate for governor of Indiana in 2012," Bayh said in a lengthy statement. Bayh is also slated to appear on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" Monday morning.

Bayh would undoubtedly have been the frontrunner on the Democratic side. With him passing on the race, the focus will turn to Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel (R) and outgoing Rep. -- and failed Senate contender -- Brad Ellsworth (D). On the Republican side, the two leading contenders are Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman and Rep. Mike Pence. The Evansville Courier and Press has an excellent run down of the Democratic jockeying here: http://bit.ly/i9iWV2

Snowe Day: For weeks now, we've following the speculation about the supposed mystery Tea Party candidate who is considering challenging Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) from the right next year. It's getting harder and harder to believe that candidate actually exists, though.

The Sun Journal profiled Andrew Ian Dodge, a leading -- and highly polarizing -- member of the Maine Tea Party movement, over the weekend. From the Sun Journal: "Dodge, for his part, has done nothing to discourage the rumors, appearing on local radio shows to whip up the intrigue. During last week's interview in Brunswick, he coyly deflected a question about a potential run. 'I couldn't possibly comment,' he said, bowing his head to disguise a wry smile. While it might seem inevitable that Dodge will declare his candidacy, one can never be sure." The whole profile is worth a read. http://bit.ly/gMonaQ

Snowe's best chance to win as a Republican is by ensuring no credible candidate appears on the primary ballot alongside her. She's been successful in winning support from conservatives, like Gov.-elect Paul LePage. But Republican operatives, surveying polling in the state, believe that if a decent conservative candidate qualifies for the ballot, she's faces a serious challenge in a primary.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Supporting the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and voting for its repeal are two very different things. The measure fell three votes short of 60 -- and two of those no votes came from senators who support repeal. Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) scored political points at home by coming out for repeal at the end of last week before voting against it on Thursday; and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), newly independent after her write-in win, did the same. Both say they'd vote for it under different circumstances, but it's unclear whether they'll get another chance in this Congress.

-- This weekend is a pivotal moment for D.C. Republicans and how they hold the line on the tax cut deal. Too many Republicans have already voiced support for the deal for them to turn against it unanimously, but you already see supportive members like Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) questioning the actual substance of the bill. It will be interesting to see if the GOP leadership can hold their members in line, because the Tea Party leaders like Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) have already come out against it. As cliché as it sounds, it really is a battle for the soul of the GOP, and whether a place for compromise exists within the party.

-- After over a month of post-Election Day overtime including a hand recount that spanned over a week, Republican Tom Emmer conceded to now Gov.-elect Mark Dayton (D) in 2010's final unresolved gubernatorial contest. Instead of dragging the race on with no foreseeable path to victory, Emmer elected to step aside and will live to fight another day.

Looking back on the race, we have to ask: How did Republicans let this one get away in Republican year in which Republicans took back control of the state House and Senate in Minnesota? Emmer did not do himself any favors, waging an often shaky campaign while the steadier Dayton -- whose high name identification and wealth helped propel his to victory -- kept the errors to a minimum.

-- There were signs of life in the West Virginia GOP this week, as former Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R) said she is considering a run for governor. The news is important because it could encourage Rep. Shelley Moore Capito -- the GOP's best statewide contender -- to run for the Senate against newly-elected Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in 2012.

-- House Republicans handed out tons of committee assignments this week, and some ambitious incumbents, like Reps. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.), Aaron Schock (R-Ill.) and Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) landed coveted slots on Appropriations and Ways and Means. While that doesn't automatically remove those Republicans from upcoming statewide contests, it may signal an interest on their part to stay in the House long term.

Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus is raiding Michael Steele's kitchen cabinet as he builds a roster of backers supporting his bid to become chairman of the Republican National Committee.

In an email to members of the RNC sent late Friday, Priebus rolled out a list of 10 early supporters, including some who once numbered among Steele's close cadre of advisors. Priebus himself was Steele's biggest backer during the 2009 campaign, appointed by the chairman to serve as the RNC's general counsel.

But Priebus and Steele drifted apart after two years in which the Wisconsinite helped mollify committee members upset by some of Steele's actions. Others among Steele's close supporters have also become disenchanted and are now backing Priebus.

That roster includes Steve King and Mary Buestrin, Priebus's fellow RNC members from Wisconsin, Illinois state Republican Party chairman Pat Brady, Sharon Giese of Arizona and Bruce Hough of Utah.

Priebus's proximity to Steele is a problem for some who believe it makes him a party to Steele's shortcomings. But Priebus has demonstrated he has supporters beyond the dwindling number of Steele allies on the committee. On Friday, Priebus formally rolled out endorsements from Georgia's Alec Poitevint, Mississippi's Henry Barbour, Curly Haugland of North Dakota and Mark Hillman of Colorado. Minnesota state GOP chairman Tony Sutton will also vote for Priebus.

Brady, Poitevint, Barbour and King are particularly influential members of the committee and may be able to bring additional votes with them. Brady has been encouraging Priebus to run for months, while Barbour is seen as a proxy for his well-respected uncle, former RNC chairman and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.

"The campaign is off to a great start. I feel blessed to have fantastic support early on. As you know, publicly stating voting preferences isn't easy to do, but we have a wonderful group of our 'First 10' supporters who are committed to helping me," Priebus wrote to members. "We will be releasing more names soon. In the meantime, I look forward to escaping the Wisconsin winter weather to visit with you soon."

Pres. Obama's tax cut deal with Republican lawmakers will be in the spotlight this weekend. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was to appear on all three broadcast network Sunday shows but canceled on Friday due to a minor surgical procedure. The turmoil inside the Democratic caucus will be discussed by former Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean on "Face the Nation" while outgoing Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) appears on "Fox News Sunday."

"This Week" holds a rare debate and discussion between the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, Salam Fayyad, and Israeli opposition leader and former foreign minister, Tzipi Livni.

And on Saturday at 9 p.m., FOX News will air "FOX News Reporting: 36 Days That Decided The Presidency." The special, hosted by Bret Baier takes an in-depth look at the 36 days in the 2000 election when George W. Bush and Al Gore where separated by only a few votes. The special includes firsthand accounts from James Baker and David Boies.

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg.
Face the Nation hosts Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) and former DNC Chair Howard Dean.
This Week hosts Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and former Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni.
Fox News Sunday hosts Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), outgoing DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer.
State of the Union hosts Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Reps. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) and Jim McDermott (D-Wash.).

Other Weekend Shows

Political Capital features Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) (Bloomberg, Friday, 7 p.m.).
Washington Week features the New York Times' Jackie Calmes, the AP's Charles Babington, the Washington Post's Lori Montgomery and NPR's Tom Gjelten (PBS, Friday, 8 p.m.).
Situation Room features Sen.-elect Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Cordoba Movement founder Imam Feisal Rauf (CNN, Saturday, 6:30 p.m.).
Communicators features FTC Chair Jon Leibowitz. Guest reporter is Politico's Tony Romm (C-SPAN, Saturday, 6:30 p.m.).
Huckabee hosts TBD (FNC, Saturday, 8 p.m.).

An independent group is up with the first ad attacking Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), but something tells me he's not bothered by it.

The ad attempts to take Brown to task for voting against failed legislation that would have lowered taxes only for Americans making less than $1 million per year.

The problem is that the ad, which was produced by the New York-based Agenda Project, does a miserable job of getting its message across. It features footage of Brown from his successful special election campaign. The only indication that the group is attacking him is the voice-over. What if viewers aren't paying attention to the commercial and only see the visuals? It's virtually free media for Brown.

Then there's the voice over. The narrator has a Bay State accent that just sounds fake. It is also chock full of laughable lines like "Mr. 'I drive a truck' is totally full of it."

Efforts to reach the Agenda Project were unsuccessful. The group assured Roll Call, however, that the spot is indeed going on air.

Check it out below.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) announced a book tour Friday that includes stops in many of the important states for a Republican presidential contender.

The book tour signifies that Pawlenty is moving toward a presidential run and is wasting very little time getting out on the campaign trail. Pawlenty officially leaves the governor's office at the beginning of January and his first stop on the book tour is Jan. 13.

Pawlenty will hit five states that are critical to a Republican presidential candidate in promoting his book, "Courage to Stand." He'll make stops in Iowa at the end of January and New Hampshire in the third week of the month -- the home of the two first Republican presidential nominating contests.

He'll also head to two states that are pivotal to a Republican's chances in the general election -- Florida and Ohio. He'll be in Miami on Jan 14 and Cincinnati on Jan. 29.

Finally, Pawlenty will visit Texas on Jan. 20 and 21. Texas is also important because it is home to the GOP's biggest presidential fundraisers and donors. (See: Perry, Bob)

There is one notable omission from the tour: South Carolina. The home of the third-in-the-nation nominating contest isn't on Pawlenty's agenda and could indicate that Pawlenty doesn't think his more moderate brand of Republicanism (compared to, say, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's) will resonate as much in the state.

Per Minnesota Public Radio, here's the full schedule (below the jump):

Pres. Obama continues to get hammered by the late night hosts for making a deal with Republicans on the Bush-era tax cuts. David Letterman, on Obama saying the tax cuts will allow Americans to keep more of their paychecks: "When Americans heard this they said, 'Paychecks? What paychecks?'"

Jimmy Kimmel airs a promo for the latest episode of Sarah Palin's Alaska, a TLC crossover event where the Gosselin family goes camping with the Palins.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:10 when Jon Stewart dusts off his George W. Bush impression.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Friday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Bill Clinton meets with Pres. Obama in the Oval Office; it's (another) D-Day for Joe Miller ; Gov. Gary Herbert watches his back in Utah; Jim Talent gets more serious about a Missouri Senate run; a Republican governor in Washington state?; and Bob Ehrlich is done with politics.

Teaching Triangulation? Pres. Obama will meet with Pres. Clinton in the Oval office Friday afternoon -- a meeting that will undoubtedly spur plenty of speculation that Obama is searching for new political strategies coming off this year's midterm losses and looking ahead to stronger Republican congressional caucuses next year.

The meeting raises more questions than it is likely to answer. For one, is Obama's tax cut compromise his idea of triangulation? And is the meeting a tacit acknowledgment that it hasn't worked, politically, as he would have liked?

Second, can Clinton triangulation -- pivoting to popular issues that can draw bipartisan support -- even work for Obama right now? The most important difference between 1990s and now is the economy; Clinton didn't have to fight a recession that is lasting much longer than the White House would like. Are there "third way" issues out there now that would even work for Obama? Obama has already been pushing for balancing the country's budget for a while.

He's considering an overhaul of the tax code, a proposal suggested by centrist former Clinton adviser William Galston, which could help him court allies in the business community - if he embraces the tax breaks and elimination of loopholes that corporations favor. That's far from guaranteed.

Third, will Clinton advise Obama to shake up his staff? Clinton famously brought in Dick Morris after the Democrats' 1994 midterm losses. While Rahm Emanuel is out as his chief of staff, Obama's inner circle has remained largely unchanged. Would Obama be receptive to a brand new voice telling him to do things differently in the West Wing?

Oh, to be a fly on the Oval Office Wall...

Herbert Watches His Back: Sen. Orrin Hatch isn't the only Utah Republican who should be worried about the state GOP's nominating convention for 2012: There are a slew of Republicans who could go after Gov. Gary Herbert (R) as well.

The Utah GOP nomination process drew headlines in 2010 when Sen.-elect Mike Lee (R) defeated Sen. Bob Bennett (R) and earned the Republican nomination at the Utah GOP convention. And there has been plenty of speculation surrounding whether Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) will seek the same path to unseating Hatch by taking advantage of the 3,500 Utah delegates being more conservative than the Utah population.

Herbert, who ascended to the governorship when Jon Huntsman (R) became ambassador to China and won a special election this year, could be the next target. And there are plenty of possible contenders. Asked who might have a go at Herbert at the convention in May of 2012, one party insider joked, "Well, any one of the 92 Republican state legislators."

A Republican needs to win 60 percent at the convention to earn the nomination outright.

D-Day For Miller: Alaska Superior Court Judge William Carey is expected to rule on Republican Joe Miller's challenge to the Alaska Senate results. Miller has challenged the state counting write-in ballots that don't state Sen. Lisa Murkowski's name as it appeared on her candidacy declaration.

If Carey rules against Miller, it could spur him to concede -- as many have called for. Don't be surprised, however, if Miller appeals the ruling to the state Supreme Court. http://bit.ly/gzWhAy

Meanwhile, the Anchorage Daily News reports that Miller and Murkowski have raised half a million dollars since Election Day to cover their legal fees. Miller's biggest contributor? Sen. Jim DeMint's (R-S.C.) Senate Conservatives Fund. http://bit.ly/hS2DPP

Talent Gets Serious: We wrote earlier this week that there was speculation in Missouri that former Sen. Jim Talent (R) might not pull the trigger on a run for his old seat against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D). The reasoning then was that even though former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) had already jumped in the race, Talent wasn't reaching out to the state's top donors.

No longer. Talent has called several of Missouri's most prominent donors this week and appears to be close to running, according to a source familiar with the calls. Talent is expected to make a formal announcement -- one way or the other -- shortly after the New Year. Buckle up; the Missouri Republican primary looks like it's going to be wild. http://bit.ly/eD6knF

Matt Strawn announced Thursday that he'll seek a second term as chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, a move that would position him in an important role in the run up to the 2012 Iowa caucuses.

Strawn would be the first chairman in eight years to serve a second term at the helm of the Iowa GOP, barring an unexpected challenge. The Iowa State Committee will hold elections in January.

The Iowa Republican Party had a particularly strong cycle this year -- no incumbent Republican lost in a statewide or congressional race.

And, from the sounds of this interview with the AP, Strawn is confident in his re-election chances.

"I've got well over majority support in the committee," he said.

Strawn's announcement comes the same week that the chair of another early presidential state, New Hampshire GOP Chairman John Sununu, announced he would not seek another term when the state committee holds their election in January. South Carolina GOP Chairwoman Karen Floyd also decided last month that she won't seek a second term. The South Carolina holds its leadership elections in May.

Vermont Rep. Peter Welch (D) is grabbing headlines Thursday with his letter to speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) opposing Pres. Obama's tax cut compromise framework that garnered signatures from 53 other Democrats.

A close look at who signed the letter, however, backs up something we reported on Wednesday: With a few exceptions, Democrats from competitive districts and who could, therefore, face the biggest repercussions for opposing the deal didn't sign the letter.

That suggests that members with the most skin in the game politically are reluctant to join the loud opposition in the liberal wing of the caucus. It also indicates that the compromise is more popular than originally thought, particularly in swing districts.

Among those who signed the letter, only about 10 would be considered vulnerable in 2012 -- and some only remotely so. The most vulnerable would be Democratic Reps. Martin Heinrich (N.M.), John Yarmuth (Ky.) and Betty Sutton (Ohio). The next wave of less vulnerable Democrats would include Rush Holt (N.J.), Jay Inslee (Wash.), Peter DeFazio (Wash.), Michael Michaud (Maine), David Price (N.C.) and Adam Smith (Wash.).

On top of that, a handful of signees either retired or were defeated this year -- so they don't have to worry about the political repercussions of opposing the framework. Those Democrats include Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.), James Oberstar (Minn.), Alan Grayson (Fla.) and Paul Kanjorski (Pa.).

Several socially conservative organizations have threatened to boycott one of the largest gatherings of conservative activists of the year if a group of gay Republicans is allowed to serve as a participating organization at the event.

Social conservatives, including the National Organization for Marriage among others, staged a walk-out at a meeting of board members of the Conservative Political Action Conference, according to multiple board members, to protest CPAC's decision to allow GOProud to join the event as more than just a vendor organization.

Those groups put enough pressure on the American Conservative Union, which runs CPAC, that officials put GOProud's fate, along with that of the ultra-conservative John Birch Society, up for a vote. Results made available to board members on Wednesday showed the board voted to allow both groups to continue their affiliation with CPAC.

That could send socially conservative groups packing and cause a rift in the CPAC board. GOProud has its enemies on the board of directors. Board member Cleta Mitchell is stridently opposed to allowing the gay group to participate and has led the charge to kick them out of the event, according to other board members.

GOProud's involvement at CPAC rises to the same level as other prominent conservative organizations, like the American Future Fund, Americans for Prosperity, Americans for Tax Reform, the Eagle Forum and Judicial Watch. Participating organizations, akin to sponsors of the event, are allowed into meetings at which speakers are chosen, giving them a higher level of access than vendor-level organizations.

GOProud, which calls itself a group for gay conservatives, brushed the controversy off. "We are excited to be participating in CPAC again this year. CPAC is the most influential and important gathering of grassroots conservatives in the country and an event we are proud to support," said Chris Barron, a GOProud spokesman.

An Alaska judge is expected to rule on Republican Senate contender Joe Miller's challenge to the write-in process before week's end, according to various news reports.

Miller has called for the state to throw out write-in ballots counted for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) that don't state her name exactly as it was written on her candidacy declaration.

The ruling comes after Alaska Superior Court Judge William Carey held hearings on the case Wednesday. It signifies that the Alaska Senate race -- which is the last 2010 race still outstanding -- could finally be coming to a close.

Miller, however, is expected to appeal to the state Supreme Court if Carey rules against him.

Murkowski has already declared victory and been deemed the winner by the AP. She -- and other Republicans -- have called on Miller to concede so she can be certified before the Senate reconvenes on Jan. 5.

Judging from a statement from the Murkowski camp late Wednesday, it's clear that the hard feelings are hitting a boiling point.

"He is continuing these efforts without the possibility of winning the election," Murkowski campaign manager Kevin Sweeney. "He claims that he is acting on principles. While we are fighting for the fundamental and constitutional principle that every Alaskan's vote should count, we cannot determine exactly what principle Mr. Miller is trying to defend by seeking to take those votes out."

The late night hosts continue to go after Pres. Obama for making a deal with Republicans to extend the Bush-era tax cuts. Jay Leno, on the deal: "The way it works, it's tax cuts for the rich and benefits for the unemployed. So if you're rich you're in luck and if you're unemployed you're in luck. If you work for a living, you're so screwed."

Jon Stewart wants to know why Obama negotiated with Republicans after calling them "almost terrorists" and "literal hostage takers." "So you would not negotiate with hostage takers unless they threaten to harm the hostages. Are you familiar with the hostage, capture dynamic?"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast Forward to 1:54 to see Bo, the White House dog, help decorate the White House Christmas tree.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Thursday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Another Florida Republican eyes a challenge to Bill Nelson; half of Americans say they are worse off since Pres. Obama took office; a West Virginia Republican puts some pressure on Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R); The Hotline's Republican National Committee Chair's race whip count; John Sununu picks a successor in New Hampshire and the NRCC's Andy Sere moves from campaign strategy to the Hill.

The Water's Warm in Florida: Much of the 2012 Florida Senate conversation so far has focused on outgoing appointed Sen. George LeMieux (R), Rep. Connie Mack (R) and state Sen. Mike Haridopolos (R). Here's another name to throw into the mix of potential challengers to Sen. Bill Nelson (D): former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner (R).

In an interview with Hotline On Call, Hasner sounded a lot like a candidate. "I think I am going to continue to explore my future options," he said. "The most important thing is my wife and I make decisions as a team."

"The beginning of the New Year," he added, would be the "right time to start moving in that direction."

Now, Hasner faces a distinctly uphill path to the Republican nomination. Compared to the other potentials, he has very low statewide name ID and may be another state legislator who, seeing Marco Rubio's (R) rapid rise from the state House to the Senate, thinks he can run statewide.

He does, however, have a few things going for him. First, he has a conservative track record. He also has a long history of opposing former Gov. Charlie Crist (I) on virtually everything which, in a Florida Republican primary is political gold. He compares himself to House Minority Leader Eric Cantor, the only Jewish Republican in the House, and would be able to tap into a national Jewish Republican fundraising pool, like Cantor has. On top of that, he has a close relationship with Rubio from serving as his deputy in the state House.

Hasner's most important adviser is his wife, Jillian, who was the campaign manager of Meg Whitman's (R) California gubernatorial bid this year and was the Florida executive director of Pres. George W. Bush's 2000 campaign.

Hasner has already started raising his profile in Republican circles, penning an op-ed on Townhall.com this week. http://bit.ly/hqj23W

Half Say They Are Worse Off Under Obama: This is not the poll the White House was hoping for this week: More than half of Americans say they are worse off since Pres. Obama took office in a new Bloomberg poll. From Bloomberg: "The survey, conducted Dec. 4-7, finds that 51 percent of respondents think their situation has deteriorated, compared with 35 percent who say they're doing better. The balance isn't sure. Americans have grown more downbeat about the country's future in just the last couple of months, the poll shows. The pessimism cuts across political parties and age groups, and is common to both sexes." http://bit.ly/dZmBGU

Et Tu, Capito? Looks like Republicans in West Virginia are trying to ramp up pressure on Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) to decide whether she will run for the Senate, governorship or stay in the House in 2012. The latest is former West Virginia Secretary of State, Betty Ireland (R), who said Wednesday she is considering a run for governor.

Ireland in the Beckley Register-Herald: "I'm contemplating it..."I have not pulled that trigger yet. I'm gathering information and talking to people and meeting with my family and my advisers, and trying to best decide what's best for me."

Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.Va.) election to the Senate has thrown a wrench in the next governor's race in West Virginia. It is unclear in state law whether acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) should serve out the remainder of the term through 2012. The state Supreme Court is currently considering a case that would call for a special election next year. That case likely won't come to a conclusion until early next year and could throw the decision back to the state legislature, where anything could happen.

Capito is the strongest Republican candidate in West Virginia and is rumored to be leaning toward the governor's race. But Ireland, who left the secretary of state's office in 2008, also has a statewide profile. http://bit.ly/f5btSQ

There may be bipartisan agreement on the need to start balancing the budget, but there's no such consensus yet on Capitol Hill on making tough choices to cut the deficit, according to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Asked whether they could support any of four options to balance the budget as part of a larger deficit reduction package, 32 Democratic Members of Congress and 28 Republicans retreated to their partisan corners. More than four-fifths of the Democratic Insiders said they could back a four-year freeze in defense spending, but after that their appetite for cutting the deficit waned. There was much less enthusiasm for a similar freeze in non-defense discretionary spending, a sharp reduction in the home-mortgage deduction, or increasing the retirement age to 69 over the next 65 years.

Republican Insiders were predictably more comfortable freezing non-defense discretionary spending and raising the retirement age, but loath to reign in defense spending. And only a quarter of the Republicans said they would be willing to reduce the home-mortgage deduction so at least there was bipartisan agreement on not tackling that popular tax break.

Many observers believe that any serious deficit reduction plan would need to include all four options. Only 16 percent of the Democratic Insiders and 18 percent of the Republican Insiders said they could support all four.

In their comments, Democratic Insiders also underscored the need to include other revenue hikes in any comprehensive package. "Unless there's a mechanism for additional revenue generation, spending cuts alone will not address the need for Congress and the president to create a credible plan for fiscal sustainability," said one Democrat. Added another, "Variations of all of these [options] could be talked about but only if new revenue -- shared sacrifice for the affluent -- is included."

The Democrats' reluctance to embrace a "grand bargain" on the deficit that includes proposals which would hurt many of their constituents may reflect their frustration with Pres. Obama's compromise with Republican congressional leaders to extend the Bush era tax cuts for all Americans, including the wealthy. As one Democratic Insider put it, "I can't take any deficit reduction package seriously in the aftermath of the president's deal with the Republicans to add billions to the deficit by extending tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires."

Some Republican Insiders were ready to take more than a scalpel to the budget. "Simply freezing all current spending levels will not get it done, cuts have to be made," warned one Republican. But there was also an acknowledgement by at least one Republican that taxes would have to be on the table. "It will take an 'all of the above' strategy to balance the budget," said the Republican. "And, after spending cuts and entitlement reform, that may require tax reform that yields additional revenue while spurring growth."

Meanwhile, when asked how they would describe relations between most members of their own party with members of the other party, a majority of Republican Congressional Insiders described them as "cordial" while a majority of Democratic Congressional Insiders called them "cool."

Since President Obama announced the framework for a compromise with congressional Republican on extending the Bush-era tax cuts, there has been plenty of focus on the loudest -- and often, most liberal -- members of Congress who have ripped the framework to shreds.

But several Democrats, liberal and moderate alike, who have the most at stake politically are coming around on the proposal -- albeit slowly. Already, a pair of House Democrats who are perennial targets for the GOP and one who may have Senate aspirations came out in favor of the bill. And on the Senate side, half of a dozen members of the Democratic caucus who are up for re-election in 2012 have voiced their support for the president's framework.

Their support suggests that for all the talk of Obama alienating the left with the compromise, it may be more popular than the party's leadership is willing to acknowledge. In particular, it may appeal to independent voters in suburban parts of the country - the constituencies Obama needs to win re-election in 2012.

It also reflects a growing sense among Democrats that, coming off numerous Republican wins this year, they should work with the GOP to get something done. A Gallup poll released Wednesday found that fully two thirds of national adults supported both extending the tax cuts for two years and extending unemployment benefits -- two pillars of the Obama compromise. And poll after poll since the midterm elections has shown that voters want Democrats to work together with Republicans to find policy solutions to battling the economic recession.

The members of the Democratic caucus who have voiced their support for the framework are virtually a who's who of vulnerable 2012 candidates. Among them are Sens. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Jim Webb (D-Va.) -- all of whom are facing retirement rumors because they will undoubtedly face difficult re-election contests.

"I commend President Obama for his leadership in forging this agreement," Webb said in a statement Wednesday. "No one will agree with every provision in the proposed agreement. The simple reality is that the American people, and particularly those who are out of work, cannot afford to wait while politics-as-usual blocks an effective, bipartisan plan to stimulate the economy and restore growth."

In addition to those three, Neb. Sen. Ben Nelson -- who could quite possibly be the most vulnerable Democrat in 2012 -- is also backing the framework. As is newly-elected West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D), another target for the GOP, and the relatively safe Delaware Sen. Tom Carper (D).

(Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is the one exception; he said he is "very unhappy" with the deal but still hinted he could vote for it.)

As the eighth night of Hanukkah approaches -- and following up on Sean's wish list column -- it's time for another list. So, here are eight senators who are likely already looking ahead to their re-election bids in 2012, and what they are likely hoping for.

1. Sen. Scott Brown's (R-Mass.) likely wish is for the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's widow, Vicki Kennedy, to opt against running for the Democratic nod. Kennedy is probably the only potential candidate with a shot at clearing the primary field, and if she declines to run Brown can look forward to a bruising primary among the many members of the Bay State's deep Democratic bench.

2. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) might wish for a Republican primary that either pushes former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) too far to the right, or sees a more extreme Tea Party-endorsed candidate defeat her. A recent blog post circulated by the St. Louis Tea Party Coalition that questioned Steelman's Tea Party credentials is evidence that local Tea Party endorsements are still up for grabs in the race.

3. Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) probably shouldn't get a wish, since he already got an early Christmas present this year. But if he were to make one, it would probably be that Nevadans forgive him. They'll likely be a much tougher crowd than the FEC and Department of Justice. Bonus wish: Rep. Dean Heller (R), the preferred candidate of many GOP insiders, decides against a Senate run.

4. Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) is probably wishing for roughly the opposite of Ensign. While Ensign needs Nevada voters to get past his ethical problems, Nelson will benefit if Florida voters get hung up on state Senate Pres. Mike Haridopolos' (R) ethical issues. Bonus wish: That appointed and outgoing Sen. George LeMieux (R) doesn't miss being a Senator after all.

Republican National Committee members are being inundated with promotional material, phone calls and even personal visits from candidates who want to be their next chairman.

Some of the 168 voters are already making up their minds, but the majority are keeping their options open. The race is viewed as a free-for-all, with at least five serious contenders battling for votes. That means the five weeks between now and the January 14 election day will be a furious sprint for votes. And we at The Hotline will track every voter.

Here's our initial look at voters who have publicly committed to backing a candidate:

SAUL ANUZIS (9)
Saul Anuzis, Michigan national committeeman
Morton Blackwell, Virginia national committeeman
Gio Cicione, Rhode Island Party chair
Mark Fahleson, Nebraska Party chair
Dana Randall, South Dakota national committeewoman
Tom Ross, Delaware Republican Party chair
Heidi Smith, Nevada national committeewoman
Mike Stuart, West Virginia Party chair
Dick Wadhams, Colorado Republican Party chair

ANN WAGNER (5)
David Cole, Missouri Party chair
Ann Dickinson, Missouri national committeewoman
Peggy Lambert, Tennessee national committeewoman
Randy Ruedrich, Alaska Party chair
John Ryder, Tennessee national committeeman

REINCE PRIEBUS (6)
Henry Barbour, Mississippi national committeeman
Pat Brady, Illinois Party chair
Mary Buestrin, Wisconsin national committeewoman
Steve King, Wisconsin national committeeman
Alec Poitevint, Georgia national committeeman
Reince Priebus, Wisconsin Party chair

GENTRY COLLINS (2)
Chris Healy, Connecticut Party chair
Matt Strawn, Iowa Party chair

The final unresolved gubernatorial contest of 2010 has come to an end. Trailing Republican candidate Tom Emmer (R) conceded to Democrat Mark Dayton (D) Wednesday morning, ending a post-election battle that has lasted over a month.

"Mark Dayton is going to be seated as the next governor of the state of Minnesota and it is our job to make sure that he can be the best governor he can possibly be," said Emmer.

A hand recount of ballots that took place last week did not narrow Dayton's almost 9,000 vote lead by any significant amount. With the exception of challenged ballots numbering in the hundreds, which were slated to be reviewed Wednesday, Dayton largely maintained his advantage.

"The integrity of our elections is of supreme importance to the health of a representative republic," said Emmer. "At the same time, it is imperative that we ... allow the next legislature and the next governor to move ahead with the people's business," he added.

Late last week, Emmer maintained that he was not planning a post-recount lawsuit, but signaled that his final decision would be contingent on an issue separate from the recount itself -- namely, a petition over reconciliation that Emmer's team filed with the state Supreme Court before the recount started. That petition was rejected by the court, but no opinion was issued.

Emmer called for the court to release an opinion on the matter and in another blow to his prospects for a lawsuit the court did just that on Tuesday, providing an explanation of why his petition was rejected. Emmer acknowledged Wednesday that the decision was part of his calculus.

Missouri Senate contender Sarah Steelman met with Sen. Jim DeMint on Tuesday afternoon, her latest attempt to court the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party.

Steelman, who announced last week that she will challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) in 2012, is seeking to position herself as the Tea Party candidate in the race in the face of a potentially difficult Republican primary. Former Sen. Jim Talent (R) is seriously considering the race and would be the establishment favorite.

DeMint has become a key figure in the Tea Party movement. He backed 11 Tea Party candidates in the 2010 cycle, several in contested Republican primaries -- including Sens.-elect Rand Paul (Ky.), Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Mike Lee (Utah). DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund invested more than $5.6 million in those candidates for the cycle -- and that financial backing could be critical to Steelman, who has struggled to fundraise in the past.

Matt Hoskins, a spokesman for DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund, confirmed the meeting in Washington to Hotline On Call. Hoskins said the conversation focused on Steelman's outsider credentials.

"They discussed the Senate race in Missouri and the need to elect more leaders who will stand up to the big spenders in Washington," Hoskins said. "While the Senator has not made an endorsement in this race, he was very impressed with Steelman and encouraged her to keep working to build grassroots support."

The Senate Conservative Fund has also begun the vetting process and is considering endorsing Steelman, according to sources involved in the deliberations. If he does back her, Steelman would be DeMint's first endorsement of the 2012 cycle.

Republican Randy Altschuler conceded defeat to Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) Wednesday after a weeks-long ballot tally left him facing a 263-vote deficit with just 977 absentee ballots left to count.

Altschuler will forgo a recount in the contest, and will drop all of his legal challenges to the remaining uncounted absentees. "Although Newsday, The New York Times and the Bishop campaign have all called for a hand recount of all the ballots cast on Election Day," Altschuler wrote in a statement, "I will not support such an action as I feel its cost will place an unnecessary burden on the taxpayers of Suffolk County." He also congratulated Bishop on the victory.

This was the final House race still outstanding, and Altschuler's concession means the final number of GOP pickups this cycle is cemented at 63 seats. The new House will consist of 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats.

Altschuler, who trailed Bishop by several thousand votes after Election Night, was the beneficiary of a 3,853-vote swing following a recanvass by Suffolk County election officials. He went into the absentee ballot count holding a slim 383-vote lead.

But Bishop was able to chop away at that margin as the absentees were counted, indicating the strength of his absentee ballot program.

Ken Spain, who led the National Republican Congressional Committee's communications shop for the 2010 cycle, is leaving the committee and heading into private consulting.

The Private Equity Growth Capital Council announced Wednesday morning that Spain will join the company as vice president of public affairs and communications. The Blackstone Group, Bain Capital and The Carlyle Group are three headlining members of the Council.

Spain earned plaudits at the NRCC for leading the communications team in a cycle where the GOP took back the House and captured 63 seats. He also worked as the committee's national press secretary during the 2008 cycle.

In a statement to Hotline On Call NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions applauded Spain's work in 2010.

"Ken's leadership and steady counsel played an integral role in the historic gains for Republicans in November," Sessions said. "While we will miss his battle-tested experience and tireless efforts here at the NRCC over the last two cycles, I know I speak for all House Republicans in wishing him continued success in his next endeavor."

Spain's departure leaves a coveted opening at the helm of the NRCC's communications shop for the 2012 cycle. Paul Lindsay, who served as press secretary this year, is a leading candidate for the job.

Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert go after Pres. Obama for making a deal with Republicans to extend the Bush era tax cuts. Colbert on the tax deal increasing the deficit: "Eventually [the deficit] will reach infinity. And we just turn our heads sideways, and boom, it's an eight. Eight, that's not much. I'll pay that off myself. Here's a sawbuck. Keep the change America."

Jay Leno reveals more WikiLeaks secrets: "Wolf Blitzer has a sister named Coyote Ugly. Did you know that?"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:49 to see Jimmy Kimmel's remake of the Christmas classic Rudolph, the Red-Nosed Reindeer with audio from Sarah Palin's Alaska.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: The Cook Political Report lays out the 2012 landscape; Tom Emmer (R) to concede in the Minnesota Governor's race; Jim DeMint (R) flexes his muscle on the tax cut deal; Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) tests the fundraising waters for 2012 and Michael Capuano (D) -- a potential 2012 Senate contender -- stokes Massachusetts' liberal base.

Emmer To Concede: The Pioneer Press is reporting that Republican Tom Emmer will finally bring the Minnesota governor's race to a close Wednesday morning. He will reportedly concede to Democrat Mark Dayton at 10:30 a.m. in Minnesota.

Emmer's concession comes on the day when Dayton's victory was all but assured; the state canvassing board was set to review approximately 200 challenged ballots Wednesday morning. On Tuesday night, Emmer's chances got even slimmer when the Minnesota Supreme Court ruled against Emmer's petition challenging the state's vote reconciliation process on Election Day.

It also means that Dayton will be able to take the governor's office as scheduled at the beginning of the New Year. That'll free Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) from an extended stay and allow him to fully devote his attention to a potential presidential run, and not get distracted in a partisan, lost cause. http://bit.ly/dGrXe8

Start Your Engines: The Cook Political Report released its first 2012 rankings Tuesday afternoon, painting early targets on a handful of senators and some of the newest members of the House. The five most vulnerable senators at this early stage, according to the Cook Report, are Democrats Ben Nelson (Neb.), Jim Webb (Va.) and Joe Manchin (W.Va.) as well as Republicans Scott Brown (Mass.) and John Ensign (Nev.) -- all of whom are listed as toss-ups.

On the House side, 10 members are already firmly in the toss-up column -- four Democrats and six Republicans. The Democrats include Reps. Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Gary Peters (Mich.) and Betty Sutton (Ohio). On the Republican side, a handful of newly-elected members should consider themselves already vulnerable, including controversial Florida Rep.-elect Allen West, Robert Dold (Ill.) and Blake Farenthold (Texas).

And among the 2011 and 2012 gubernatorial races, Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon (D) and North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue are already in the toss-up column, as is the open seat race in Montana. The open seat race in Indiana is the only Republican held governor's race in the toss-up column. Of the 2011 races, notably, Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear (D) starts in the "lean Democrat" column, while the open seat race in Mississippi is ranked as "likely Republican" and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal falls in the "solid Republican" category.
Check out National Journal's Alex Roarty's write up here: http://bit.ly/fBro7I
Senate ratings: http://bit.ly/g1jNLB
House ratings: http://bit.ly/gHmKSZ
Governors ratings: http://bit.ly/hIqeWz

DeMint's First Test: In all the talk of unrest on the left over Pres. Obama tax cut deal, it has been widely assumed that most Senate Republicans will back it. Not so fast. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), a leader of the conservative wing of the party, said Tuesday night that he won't back the compromise.

"Most of us who ran this election said we were not going to vote for anything that increased the deficit. This does," DeMint said on Hugh Hewitt's radio show.

The big question is whether DeMint will whip support from the conservative wing of the Senate caucus. His remarks could be even more important if the deal doesn't pass in the lame duck session. That's because in the next Congress, DeMint could attempt to sway newly elected, Tea Party backed senators to also oppose any deal.

DeMint's argument also got a boost from the Club for Growth on Tuesday night when the fiscally conservative group also came out against the deal. "This is bad policy, bad politics, and a bad deal for the American people," said Club President Chris Chocola. http://bit.ly/g3Nwoz, http://bit.ly/71vAK

Don't expect the next election to be a let-up from the breakneck political pace set in 2010: The Cook Political Report on Tuesday already categorized five Senate and 10 House races as "toss-ups" nearly two years before the next federal Election Day.

The array of freshman Republicans who won during November's wave election could be vulnerable in 2012 in a potentially less favorable political climate, the Report finds. Congress will feature 87 new Republican members next year, many of them fresh off victories over Democratic incumbents that helped the party gain 63 seats in the House.

The Report says six House Republicans are already in toss-up races: Allen West in Florida's 22nd District, Robert Dold in Illinois' 10th District, Bobby Schilling in Illinois' 17th District, Ann Marie Buerkle in New York's 25th, Lou Barletta in Pennsylvania's 11th, and Blake Farenthold in Texas' 27th District.

The House Democrats with an early target on their backs include John Barrow in Georgia's 12th, Joe Donnelly in Indiana's 10th, Gary Peters in Michigan's 9th, and Betty Sutton in Ohio's 13th, according to the Report.

Many of those lawmakers narrowly won in 2010, overcoming personal baggage that could be a greater hindrance in 2012 or benefitting from a weak incumbent.

The ratings also take into account potential redistricting changes, which will lead to eliminating districts in some states, adding seats to others and significantly redrawing district lines in many. And in Rep.-elect West's case, the creation of a non-partisan redistricting committee could weaken the GOP hold on his district, which was draw by Republicans a decade ago.

The Report identifies five Senate seats as toss-ups - three held by Democrats and two by Republicans.

From NationalJournal.com:

Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele can no longer count on the support of a key caucus within the RNC, the latest blow to his chances of keeping a job he's held since 2009.

Steele has long counted on the 18 votes that make up the unofficial Island caucus, a group of members representing U.S. territories on the national committee. Those votes represent nearly a quarter of the votes he would need to win re-election, and any cracks in what are ordinarily a solid coalition could prove fatal to Steele's chances.

Island voters were instrumental in electing Steele in 2009, and he's been counting on them as the foundation of his 2011 campaign. But sources tell Hotline On Call Steele can no longer count on the Puerto Rican delegation.

That delegation includes Gov. Luis Fortuno, Zori Fonalledas and Carlos Mendez. The three have agreed they will not vote for Steele, according to several sources briefed on their group decision.

Each state and territory is allowed to send three members to the RNC -- a state chairman and two national committee representatives, one male and one female. That means Guam gets the same number of votes on the RNC as, say, Texas. And it makes the alliance between Guam, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hawaii a powerful bloc on the RNC.

Other island delegates said they remain committed to voting for Steele, at least on the first ballot. Herb Schoenbohm, chairman of the U.S. Virgin Islands GOP, praised Steele and said all three delegates from his territory would back Steele on the first ballot.

"Remember, Chairman Steele was dealt a nearly worthless hand in 2008 when he was chosen, but some how managed to run the tables in the U.S. House in 2010," Schoenbohm said in an email. "He was part of the victory that had many contributing elements and there he stands in the arena receiving both brickbats and bouquets."

As the holiday season kicks into full swing, three races remain unresolved: Minnesota's gubernatorial contest, New York's First Congressional District race and Alaska's Senate election -- where Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) has been declared the winner, but GOP challenger Joe Miller has refused to give up.

If each candidate were to write up a holiday wish list related to their race, you'd likely find an identical item at the top of each one -- victory. But beyond the obvious choice, you'd probably find some more nuanced wishes, as some of the candidates have more than victory at stake. Here are some other items that would likely be on the lists:

Alaska Senate Race: Murkowski's once long shot write-in bid has proven to be a remarkable success, as she has been declared the winner of the race by the AP. Miller has refused to surrender, despite calls from some in his own party, and has mounted a legal challenge to toss out write-in ballots for Murkowski.

For Murkowski, the possibility of losing her leadership in the Senate due to an extended legal battle is significant enough that she would likely wish for a speedy legal process and certification that does not drag on beyond Jan. 3, when the new Senate is sworn in. While it appears unlikely that Murkowski would be stripped of her seniority should the legal battle linger on, the possibility still represents a potential bump in what has otherwise been an impressive last couple of months for her.

For Miller, it'll take a holiday miracle to turn back Murkowski. Recognizing his long own long odds, Miller himself insists that it's less about winning or losing and more about principle at this point.

His wish list might also include a forgiving reception from voters once the recount passes, should his challenge not turn the race in his favor. Miller is already running the risk of doing significant damage to any future political aspirations he might have by sticking around so long.

Minnesota Gubernatorial Race: Still losing by nearly 9,000 votes to former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) following a hand recount process, it has become increasingly clear to observers that Republican Tom Emmer (R) is not going to pull ahead following the results of the recount alone.

Political Correspondent Beth Reinhard knows Marco Rubio better than most, having covered the Republican senator-elect in Florida before he became the Tea Party's darling and a conservative rising star. So how might Rubio behave as a lawmaker in Washington? Reinhard makes her predictions below.

In announcing Monday that he won't seek another term as chairman of the New Hampshire GOP, former Gov. and White House Chief of Staff John Sununu (R) has set off a flurry of activity over who will succeed him, with nearly a half dozen contenders already eying the race.

Who succeeds Sununu will be critical to Republican prospects in New Hampshire; Sununu presided over a dramatic turnaround for the party in the last two years, with the GOP making dramatic gains at nearly every level of government in this year's election.

It remains to be seen how many of the following contenders step forward and run. But they have to do so soon -- the party's 493-member state committee will elect the next chairman on Jan. 22.

What to watch for: Does a Tea Party candidate emerge to challenge an establishment figure? And who does Sununu endorse? Party spokesman Ryan Williams told Hotline On Call Tuesday that Sununu hasn't endorsed anyone yet "but he may in the future."

As for 2012 ramifications, who is elected chairman likely won't have an influence on the presidential race in the Granite State. By state party bylaws, the chairman cannot endorse in the primary.

"Recent history has shown that you can have less than stellar people in that position and the presidential primary goes along anyway," said James Pindell, a New Hampshire political analyst for WMUR. "This is largely an administrative job; the state chair cannot endorse a primary candidate and no one in three decades could use it as a stepping stone to higher office."

Sununu's retirement may actually raise his profile as a 2012 endorsement in the primary. Sununu has long been the party's elder statesman in New Hampshire, and with Sen. Judd Gregg's (R-N.H.) retirement this year and Sen.-elect Kelly Ayotte's (R) short tenure in the Senate at the point, Sununu is likely to be a highly sought after get for 2012 GOP contenders.

Here's a breakdown of who might run to succeed Sununu:

The late night hosts take shots at the most recent episode of Sarah Palin's Alaska and Stephen Colbert thinks it's time for Pres. Obama to stop trying to win over Republicans: "Mr. President, face the facts. Republicans just aren't that into you."

Jimmy Fallon doesn't think the WikiLeaks saga is over yet: "WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange said he's going to release damaging files on BP and Guantanamo Bay if his website is shut down ... No one besmirches the good names of BP and Guantanamo Bay!"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:08 to find out how long it takes former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (R) to shoot a caribou.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Speculation grows surrounding whether Jim Talent (R-Mo.) will run for his old Senate seat as a poll shows him to be the frontrunner in the GOP primary; New Hampshire GOP Chair John Sununu retires -- opening up a valuable job for an ally of a 2012 contender; Florida Sen. George LeMieux (R) stays in 2012 holding pattern and the 2012 South Carolina operatives you need to know.

Talent's Trigger Finger: There is growing speculation in Missouri that Jim Talent (R) may be having second thoughts about running for his former Senate in a rematch against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in 2012. Since former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) jumped in the race last week, Talent has not reached out to at least two major Missouri donors to reassure them he will, in fact, enter the race.

"He doesn't realize that he really needs to get in gear [if he wants to run]," said one plugged-in Missouri GOP insider. "I think he runs, but the hesitation is becoming a problem."

Talent has said all along that he won't make a decision until after the New Year, and he could be waiting until the Missouri Lincoln Days events -- one of the largest GOP gatherings in the state -- at the end of February.

The former senator's delay, however, is giving Steelman the Missouri media to herself. Steelman did several radio interviews on Monday and is clearly courting the Tea Party activists in the state. As Hotline On Call reported Monday, though, she can't automatically count on their support; some activists are already questioning her Tea Party credentials. http://bit.ly/i0QnIt

Why It Matters For The GOP: It's still very early, but a poll from Public Policy Polling (IVR) shows Talent to be the clear frontrunner in the Republican primary -- if he runs. Fifty-three percent of Missouri Republicans said they would back Talent, compared to 26 percent for Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder and 17 percent for Steelman. The good news for Steelman? Much of that is a result of name identification, as fully 62 percent don't have an opinion of her yet. http://bit.ly/giJuXm

Sununu Hangs 'Em Up: Former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu announced late Monday that he is retiring after two years as chairman of the state GOP.

The move could have a significant impact on the 2012 Republican presidential field. Sununu, a former White House chief of staff, now won't have as large an influence on the New Hampshire Republican primary. And his retirement means the race to succeed him will be one of the most closely watched state party elections in the country, as every potential 2012 contender would benefit significantly from having an ally in that role.

"For a variety of personal, family and business reasons I cannot provide the time and focus required to serve as chairman for another 2-year term," he said in a statement. "It is important that we elect a new chairman who is capable of managing the party, raising money and expanding our reinvigorated grassroots effort for 2012." http://bit.ly/gAgbax

A group calling itself the Tea Party Nation is planning to send a letter to former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) urging her to run for chairman of the Republican National Committee. But Palin, plainly put, will never become chairman -- both because the national committee would never elect her, and because the job is clearly at odds with her own self-interest.

Palin herself told ABC News she's not interested in a run. "I respect the desire to have someone in charge of the RNC who understands the wishes of the conservative grassroots and understands that power resides with the people and not the vested interests in D.C.," she said in a statement.

Here are the other six reasons Palin will never serve as RNC chair:

1) She might want to run. While it's not clear she will actually run for president, one thing is obvious: Palin wants the door open enough for her to make a bid if she decides to pursue one. Becoming chairman of a national political committee that has to raise $400 million in two years means forgoing any possible presidential campaign in 2012.

Palin herself acknowledged that conundrum today. "The primary role of the RNC chair seems be that of fundraiser-in-chief, and there are others who would probably be much more comfortable asking people for money than I would be, and they would definitely enjoy it more," she told ABC News.

2) She's an ideologue. Qualification no. 1 for any chairman, especially going into a presidential election year, is to be an objective broker. Palin has a clear-cut ideology, and even though her conservative outlook is the clear majority in the party, it's not the only outlook. The RNC chairman has to defend moderates as much as conservatives. That means equally supporting Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and Sen.-elect Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

Palin's primary endorsements, especially against Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), raise questions as to whether she would do that. In a presidential year, potential White House candidates will lean on their RNC members to pick someone who is not going to have a finger on the scale, and Palin's history would certainly make those contenders nervous.

3) She's an outsider. That's one of Palin's biggest potential plusses as a presidential candidate, but in the world of the RNC and its 168 voters, that's almost the death of her campaign right there. The RNC is a group of state party chairs and national committee members who prize their independence, and they're not easily wooed by stars. They are routinely courted by possible presidential candidates and they rarely bat an eye when it happens.

The dominant storyline following former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman's (R) early entry into the 2012 Missouri Senate race was how another Tea Party-versus-establishment showdown was shaping up in the Republican primary if former Sen. Jim Talent (R) also runs.

But from discussions with both in Missouri and Washington Republicans, the characterization of Steelman as a Tea Party candidate is premature. In fact, the St. Louis Tea Party Coalition emailed their supporters a blog post over the weekend that questioned Steelman's Tea Party credentials.

"I don't understand why Sarah Steelman is being referred to as the Tea Party favorite. She's not," the blog post said. "She may be by the time the election is here, but she's not the favorite yet."

"As of today, there are no Tea Party favorites for U.S. Senate in Missouri."

Garnering Tea Party support will be crucial for Steelman, if she faces a primary against Talent. And it's clear she is courting them. Steelman spokesman Jeff Layman pointed to Steelman's history of opposing earmarks and said that Steelman "is one of the early heroes of the Tea Party movement."

"Sarah Steelman has been on the side of the Tea Party before there was a Tea Party," Layman went on. "Steelman's longstanding fight to challenge establishment politicians and put working people first has won her widespread support among Tea Party members and conservative reformers across Missouri and the nation."

James Harris, a Missouri Republican consultant who has worked for Steelman in the past, said the Tea Party movement could make the difference for Steelman both in the primary and the general election race with Sen. Claire McCaskill (D).

"We have a very strong and vibrant Tea Party movement in St. Louis and the collar counties," said Harris. "Jefferson County, for example, swung to the Republican side this year because of that movement."

In a year otherwise toxic to incumbent Democrats, Sen. Pat Leahy (D-Vt.) won re-election to a seventh term last month with 64 percent of the vote. He skated by his unknown Republican opponent with such ease that most people probably assumed he wasn't even up for election. There are a few incumbent Senators that will probably have the Leahy experience come 2012.

Most of the incumbents who will probably breeze by in 2012 are in deeply Republican or Democratic states, where the major competition is usually in a primary. And most of the Republicans who would normally be on our list are missing for precisely that reason: the Tea Party primary. For example, it's hard to count Republican Sen. Roger Wicker as safe in 2012 even in reliably Republican Mississippi because there are already rumors of challenges from the right.

But Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso (R) can probably breathe easy. He's known as a stalwart Republican who is liked by both the Club for Growth and American Conservative Union. He's up for his first regular election in 2012, after winning a special election to replace the late Sen. Craig Thomas (R) in 2008. That year, he beat the anonymous Democrat with 73 percent of the vote. It will probably be higher in 2012.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) won his first term in the Senate with 65 percent of the vote, becoming one of two independents in Congress. But his 2006 win was only possible because there was no Democratic candidate on the ticket (although Sanders technically won the Democratic primary). If there's no Democrat running in 2012, Sanders will likely have an easy re-election bid. But the liberal-leaning Vermont electorate has historically stumbled into trouble when Democrats and liberal third parties split the vote, handing offices to Republicans. If Sanders gets cross-endorsed by Democrats, or persuades all the likely Democratic candidates to stand down, he'll join his colleague Leahy in winning the Green Mountain State with nary a problem.

Last week, the Washington Post's The Fix ran down the senators most likely to retire before they face voters again. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) wasn't on that list, even though she'll turn 79 in 2012. She's repeatedly said she'll run again, and seeing how California is increasingly solidly Democratic, it's unlikely she'll have a serious problem winning a fourth full term. She won her previous two elections she's won with 59 percent and 56 percent of the vote. And Feinstein's less-popular delegation mate, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), beat well-funded Republican Carly Fiorina this year by 10 points despite the Republican climate. Barring a Feinstein retirement, Democrats can safely put her seat in the hold column, especially since Republicans seem to have an empty California bench.

A former top ally of Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele will run against him for chairman this year.

Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus announced his candidacy for national chairman in a Monday email to members of the national committee.

"The RNC must be at its best during this next election cycle. There is too much at risk for our Party and, more importantly, for our country. That is why I am running for Chairman," Priebus wrote. "It is not just about fundraising. It is not just about communicating our message. It is not just about standing up for our conservative values and party platform. It is not just about putting together successful victory programs. It must be all those things to win in 2012."

Priebus helped elect Steele in 2009 and has served for the past two years as the RNC's general counsel before resigning Sunday, as well as one of Steele's top lieutenants. It has often fallen to Priebus to put out fires that Steele has caused.

But that role has grown tiresome, according to Priebus's friends and associates. In his letter to members, Priebus took several not-so-veiled shots at his former ally, the incumbent.

"I will run a tight ship at the RNC. I will keep expenses low. I will put in strong and serious controls. We will raise the necessary funds to make sure we are successful. We will work to regain the confidence of our donor base and I will personally call our major donors to ask them to rejoin our efforts at the RNC," Priebus said.

Those privy to Priebus's strategy suggest he will attempt to appropriate much of Steele's old inner circle and reach out to those who would have opposed Steele's candidacy. Though he was seen as the member closest to Steele during the past two years, Priebus has maintained relations with Steele's opponents. But rivals will attempt to paint Priebus as an accomplice of the bumpy Steele tenure.

Priebus starts the campaign with at least three votes toward the 85 he would need to secure a win -- his own, Illinois Republican Party chair Pat Brady's and Wisconsin national committeewoman Mary Buestrin's. He will face off against former Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis, former RNC co-chair Ann Wagner, former RNC political director Gentry Collins and former Bush administration official Maria Cino. Collins and Cino are expected to make their campaigns official in short order.

Steele has not said whether he will run for a second term. Several other candidates, including former RNC chairman Mike Duncan, are also contemplating bids.

Priebus's complete letter to RNC members is after the jump.

Newly-tapped Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) announced Monday that Robby Mook will be the committee's executive director for the 2012 cycle.

Mook is a veteran of the DCCC, having led the committee's independent expenditure arm for the 2010 cycle and serving as its political director in 2009. He'll replace Jon Vogel as executive director in heading up the DCCC's operations.

"Robby has the right combination of experience, political know-how and leadership savvy to help make this the shortest Republican majority in history," Israel said in a statement.

Mook is a veteran of New Hampshire politics, having managed Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D) successful 2008 campaign. He also worked as state director in Nevada, Ohio and Indiana. for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.

"Saturday Night Live" skewers WikiLeaks with their parody, "WikiLeaks:TMZ." Julian Assange wants to take down Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and has a top secret video, "that has to be seen to be believed." Assange makes no apologies: "There you have it America, truth courtesy of Julian Assange. Do I suck a little bit? I do. You try me for treason, you can't because I'm from Australia. But nice try dummies."

"SNL Weekend Update" host Seth Meyers on the WikiLeak document dump: "This week American diplomacy accidentally hit reply all."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:50 when WikiLeaks:TMZ catches up with Hillary Clinton. Then let us know which SNL cast member did the best impression in our Late Night Poll.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: One of Michael Steele's key allies jumps ship -- signaling a possible challenge in the RNC chairmanship race; Newt Gingrich is "inclined" to run for president; Mike Huckabee wants more people talking about him; the end approaches in the Minnesota governor's race; Pres. Obama hits the campaign trail in North Carolina and the 50 Iowa operatives you need to know.

Key Steele Ally Bails: The forecast is looking increasingly gloomy for Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele as he considers a bid for a second term. The latest is RNC general counsel and Steele ally Reince Priebus resigning over the weekend, likely to pursue his own run for the chairmanship. The Hotline reports:

"Priebus, the chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, was once Steele's closest ally on the committee. Priebus pushed to elect Steele in 2009, and in the two years since has served as Steele's conduit with committee members...

"Priebus spent his term in office running interference for Steele, organizing letters of support for the chairman at crucial moments when other committee members actively considered calling for Steele's resignation. Sources close to Priebus said he had grown increasingly uncomfortable with those duties, and with Steele's time in office. He has been encouraged by other RNC members, including others once close to Steele, to run for national chairman himself." http://bit.ly/fkWpCB

Gingrich "Inclined" Toward 2012: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) took his biggest step toward running for president on Sunday, saying on "Fox News Sunday" that he is "more inclined to run than not run." And Gingrich indicated that he will make up his mind in late February or early March. http://huff.to/e407N9

While Gingrich is certainly sounding more like a candidate, don't miss this breakdown of Gingrich's past presidential statements by Salon's Justin Elliott. They show that Gingrich really hasn't said anything new on the topic for more than a year: http://bit.ly/cgkMA3

Huck Wants In...The Conversation: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), meanwhile, said over the weekend that there should be more discussion of his possible candidacy. Huckabee in Politico: "I just don't understand how it is that a person can read these polls day after day and the narrative is constantly everybody but me...Whether I do it or not, the fact is that if one looks at the overall body of information that's available, nobody would be in a better position to take it all the way to November."

Just sayin', but we didn't really notice people skipping over Huckabee in their 2012 talks... http://politi.co/g0jXgU

The End Approaches in Minnesota: The Minnesota governor's race appears to finally be coming to an end, as Republican Tom Emmer dropped nearly 2,600 "frivolous" challenges, a sign that his chances of mounting a comeback victory over Democrat Mark Dayton are all but impossible.

The Pioneer Press reports: "The Minnesota 2010 recount inched closer to the inevitable Saturday, when a critical step of dispensing of a large stack of challenged ballots in Hennepin County was dispatched after several hours of review. Of the 3,000-plus challenges statewide deemed frivolous, more than 80 percent were in Hennepin County. Republicans are also expected to withdraw most, if not all, of 422 frivolous challenges from Renville County, representing the second-most from Minnesota's 87 counties."

Minnesota is set to certify the winner of the contest on Dec. 14. http://bit.ly/hqgS8a

Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee's top legal counsel, resigned his position early Sunday morning, The Hotline has learned, a move that will be widely interpreted as a major step toward running for chairman of the organization and a big blow to current chairman Michael Steele.

Priebus, the chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, was once Steele's closest ally on the committee. Priebus pushed to elect Steele in 2009, and in the two years since has served as Steele's conduit with committee members.

"In a private letter to Chairman Steele, I did resign today as General Counsel. I appreciated the opportunity to work with all of the members that make the RNC so special," Priebus confirmed in an email to The Hotline.

Priebus spent his term in office running interference for Steele, organizing letters of support for the chairman at crucial moments when other committee members actively considered calling for Steele's resignation. Sources close to Priebus said he had grown increasingly uncomfortable with those duties, and with Steele's time in office. He has been encouraged by other RNC members, including others once close to Steele, to run for national chairman himself.

Priebus has said he is considering a bid, and he is likely to make his decision public some time this week. But quitting his post is a strong indication he is likely to run for chairman, whether or not his one-time ally seeks a second term.

Despite his proximity to Steele, Priebus has maintained good relations with committee members who have opposed the chairman. His strategy, if he takes the final plunge and decides to run for chairman, will be to try to appropriate a coalition of one-time Steele backers along with others in search of a consensus anti-Steele candidate. Already, Priebus counts Illinois Republican Party chairman Pat Brady as a backer; Brady had been a member of Steele's inner circle before urging Priebus to run.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Two Republican governors-elect were not shy about discussing the 2012 Republican presidential primaries in their respective states this week. In South Carolina, Gov.-elect Nikki Haley (R) said she will endorse a candidate before her state's primary while in Iowa, Gov.-elect Terry Branstad (R) said it would be a mistake for potential White House candidates to skip the Iowa Republican straw poll. He also said he would consider an endorsement.

Smart moves by each to stake early claim to the position of kingmaker. Each can also expect their mailbox to be overflowing with holiday cards this year.

-- It may just be a matter of time before the pre-obituaries about Michael Steele's tenure as chairman of the Republican National Committee start popping up. Rank-and-file committee members are growing increasingly incensed about reports that he paid tens of thousands of dollars to his former personal assistant and members of her extended family to work on the 2012 Republican convention. Even his past supporters, like former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and Wisconsin GOP chairman Reince Priebus are turning against him, all before he even formally announces his re-election campaign.

-- The deficit commission failed to pass its 14-vote barrier to send its recommendations to Congress automatically. So what? This Congress probably wasn't going to pass the package anyway, even if it did get there. This decade of Congress has proven that any nation-changing legislation has to be a result of a crisis, and that's the only way an earth-shaking deficit package will be passed.

-- Sen. Scott Brown (R) in deep blue Massachusetts is widely considered one of the few vulnerable Republicans up for re-election in 2012, but he hasn't been acting like it. His vote stopped the extension of unemployment benefits earlier this week, and - though he likely will - he hasn't yet come out in support of repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

-- The 52 defeated House Democratic incumbents had an average of $86,000 in their bank accounts at the end of the election, according to new FEC data. Even though Rep. Rick Boucher (R-Va.) spent heavily during his losing bid, he still had nearly $700,000 in the bank. Meanwhile, Illinois Reps. Debbie Halvorson (D) and Bill Foster (D) as well as Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney (D) had about $250,000 left. Did those Democrats leave some gas in the tank for 2012 bids?

"Don't Ask, Don't Tell," the START treaty and the battle over Bush-era tax cuts are on tap for this weekend's Sunday shows. Senate Whips Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) will square off on "Face the Nation" while Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) appear on NBC's "Meet the Press." Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) talk's deficit reduction plans on "Fox News Sunday" while General Wes Clark and Log Cabin Republican Executive Director Clarke Cooper discuss DADT on "This Week."

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.).
Face the Nation hosts Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.).
This Week hosts Gen. Wes Clark, Log Cabin Republican's Executive Director Clarke Cooper, Dr. Tammy Schultz, former Pentagon inspector general retired Lt. Col. Bob Maginnis and Center for Military Readiness President Elaine Donnelly.
Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) and former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.).
State of the Union hosts TBD.

Other Weekend Shows

Political Capital features Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) (Bloomberg, Friday, 7 p.m.).
Washington Week features the New York Times' John Harwood, the Los Angeles Times' Doyle McManus and National Journal's Yochi Dreazen (PBS, Friday, 8 p.m.).

Holding just his second press conference since Election Day, trailing Minnesota gubernatorial contender Tom Emmer (R) said Friday that he is not currently planning a post-recount legal challenge in the ongoing governor's race, but signaled that his final decision would rest on ascertaining the state Supreme Court's reasoning for rejecting a voter-counting petition that he filed before the hand recount began.

"I am not currently planning an election contest," said Emmer at a news conference Friday. "Before I would make any final decision as to a course of action, we must know what the Supreme Court's reasoning is for denying our petition," he added.

At issue in Emmer's petition was reconciliation -- the process the state goes through to make sure the number of ballots matches the number of voters who voted. Emmer's team argued that counties improperly counted how many people voted.

"The court has yet to issue an opinion, leaving the question of reconciliation unanswered," continued Emmer. "This fundamental question must be answered."

The hand recount is more than 93 percent complete and Democrat Mark Dayton's lead of around 9,000 votes does not appear to have decreased significantly.

Recognizing that he is unlikely to close that gap in the recount, Emmer sought to downplay its importance. "It has never been my contention that the hand recount would dramatically change the course of this election," he said.

"The recount is merely a step in the process that ensures there are no other irregularities that must be accounted for," he later added.

In an effort to expedite the recount process, Emmer also said he intended to withdraw any challenged ballot that he does not believe will "be upheld by the board." The state canvassing board is set to review challenges from both sides next week after the recount wraps up.

Pres. Obama's deficit commission did not win the 14 votes necessary to pass its plan Friday -- dealing the administration a significant setback in its efforts to trim the country's deficit.

The commission needed 14 votes to be automatically sent to Congress for consideration.

Former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) and former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-Wyo.) secured 11 votes. Seven of the 18 members said they did not support the plan.

Here's the whip count:

VOTES IN FAVOR
Bowles
Simpson
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.)
Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.)
Honeywell CEO David Cote
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho)
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.)
Ex-Young & Rubicam Brands CEO Ann Fudge
Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.)
Former CBO Dir. Alice Rivlin
Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.)

VOTES AGAINST
Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.)
Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.)
Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas)
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)
Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.)
Former SEIU pres. Andy Stern
Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.)

The Democratic and Republican Senate campaign committees begin the 2012 cycle with almost nothing left in the bank after spending more than $30 million each in the final two weeks of the midterm elections.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reported raising $19.9 million during the period running between Oct. 14 and Nov. 22, according to reports filed with the Secretary of the Senate's office. The DSCC entered Thanksgiving week with just $712,784 on hand, meaning they spent about $34 million in the final spring.

National Republican Senatorial Committee reports show they raised $19.4 million in the same time period and had $519,326 left to spend. That puts the GOP's final fortnight spending around $30.8 million.

Both parties are swimming in debt. The NRSC owes $6 million in unpaid loans, while the DSCC begins the 2012 cycle $6.7 million in the red.

Still, both Senate committees are in better shape than their House and national party counterparts. The RNC and the DNC both owe more than $15 million, while the NRCC owes $12 million and the DCCC has to pay back $19.4 million in loans.

In total, Senate Democrats outraised their Republican counterparts by $15 million. DSCC executive director J.B. Poersch credited that fundraising with helping Democrats hold on to control of the upper chamber. Democrats lost six seats in the midterms, fewer than some had predicted.

"Senate Democrats beat back the Republicans this year in part because we outraised the other side," Poersch said. Poersch said his committee had broken several fundraising records this cycle.

Outgoing Rep. Artur Davis (D-Ala.) had some frank words for his party and, by implication, the Congressional Black Caucus in my interview with him for my column this week.

And he's not done splitting with his party on the most-pressing votes during this lame-duck session. He was one of only 20 Democrats to vote against his party's tax proposal, only extending tax cuts for the middle-class. And he was the only member of the Congressional Black Caucus to vote in favor of censure for ethically-embattled Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) on Thursday.

In some ways, that's not a surprise. Davis forged a centrist path in the House since being elected in 2002. But he still voted frequently with Democratic leaders - until mounting a campaign for governor of Alabama, after which he split with his party more often and voted like a conservative Democrat. He represented a new generation of African-American political leadership, and was one of the earliest backers of Pres. Obama's presidential campaign against Hillary Clinton.

It's easy to forget that Davis was floated as a leading candidate to serve as Obama's Attorney General, and may well have been tapped if he hadn't been planning a gubernatorial campaign back home. He likely would be charting a different path in the job than the current occupant, Eric Holder.

Davis told National Journal's Hotline that he's in the process of relocating to the Washington area, where he plans to practice law.

The private sector added 50,000 jobs in November while the government continued to shed positions as the unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday morning.

Non-farm payrolls increased a total of 39,000 positions, led by gains in the employment service sector and in the health care industry. But retail and manufacturing sectors shed tens of thousands of positions, led by cuts at department stores.

Government continues to shrink, losing a net 11,000 jobs last month. The federal government added just 2,000 jobs and states added 1,000 positions, but local governments laid off 14,000 people.

The November jobs report is the latest to come in below expectations. And it's the first time since August that the unemployment has ticked up, rising two-tenths of a percent. The unemployment rate has stayed steady in the last three months.

Unemployment was up among both men and women, whites and Hispanic workers. The 16 percent unemployment rate among African Americans, the highest among any ethnic group, was unchanged.

Good Friday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Bay Staters court Vicki Kennedy to take on Scott Brown; Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney gave big money to Republicans; both Democratic and GOP committees go firmly into the red; American Crossroads is here to stay; Rhode Island gubernatorial runner-up John Robitaille considers a Senate bid and Rep. Tim Bishop's lead grows in the last outstanding House race.

Courting Vicki Kennedy: A growing Facebook group is trying to pressure Vicki Kennedy to run for her late husband's Senate seat in Massachusetts. The latest is a billboard featuring a picture of Kennedy on Interstate 93 near Boston. The AP's Glen Johnson -- one of the deans of the Massachusetts political press corps -- looks into the meaning of the billboard.

"Is it merely touting, as the sign reads, the attendance of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's widow at a mayoral event on immigrants and diversity? Or is it part of a low-wattage effort to maintain Vicki Kennedy's profile for a possible 2012 campaign against the man who succeeded her husband, Republican Sen. Scott Brown (R)?...The interest is shared by some Democrats looking for a heavy-hitting challenger to Brown, who staged an extraordinary upset in January to claim the seat Edward Kennedy had held for nearly a half-century."

The Facebook group currently has 1,700 members and, from discussions with Massachusetts Democrats, Kennedy has right of first refusal on the race -- just as she had last time. Worth keeping in mind: Brown is not the automatic pick up for Democrats that some are portraying him to be. Many Democratic operatives privately acknowledge they'll need a very high profile candidate with proven fundraising abilities -- like, ahem, Vicki Kennedy -- to take him and his nearly $7 million war chest on. A Thursday Public Policy Polling (IVR) poll showed Brown leading Kennedy by seven points -- 48 percent to 41 percent -- and gave Brown a 53 percent approval rating.
AP Story: http://bit.ly/g0Mn9s
PPP Survey: http://bit.ly/eCsXL9

2012 Fundraising: Many of the potential 2012 contenders filed their fundraising reports for Oct. 14 to Nov. 22 and the big winners so far are former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), who raised $469,000, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), who raised $558,000 between his federal and state level PACs. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty raised $140,000 and South Dakota Sen. John Thune (R) hauled in $183,000 and has $7.2 million in his warchest.

But Palin and Romney stand out for how much they doled out to Republican candidates in the run up to Election Day. National Journal's Alex Roarty reports: "The two former governors contributed far more money to Republican candidates during the run-up to Election Day than the rest of the 2012 presidential pack...giving themselves a likely leg up when the presidential primary race begins to heat up. Palin was the largest underwriter, donating more than $240,000 to candidates and committees... She made nearly all of the donations before Election Day..."

"Romney struggled to keep up with Palin, although he was far closer than anyone else. He contributed nearly $165,000 to GOP candidates and committees during the five-week period." http://bit.ly/gV1vA3

Going Into the Red: The FEC filings for the Democratic and Republican committees for the same time period show both sides came out of the cycle firmly in the red.

The Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee both reported roughly $15 million in debt. Both spent more than they raised -- with the DNC dishing out $30.3 million and the RNC spending $24.7 million. The DNC, however, finished the period with $9.7 million in its bank account while the RNC has just $1.9 million.

The House campaign committees also finished the period with significant debt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dished out a whopping $55 million during the period -- a result of their strategy to save their ad money and blitz districts in the run up to Election Day. They closed out the cycle with $19.5 million in debt.

On the other hand, the National Republican Congressional Committee, which spent more on TV ads earlier in the cycle, doled out $31.3 million and has $12 million in debt.

Crossroads Is Here To Stay: The conservative American Crossroads, which had a large footprint in this year's midterms, reported raising $3.8 million from Oct. 14 to Nov. 22. They finished the cycle with $1.1 million in the bank, ensuring that they aren't going anywhere and could very well have an impact on the 2012 cycle as well.

Crossroads raised $27.8 million for the cycle. When combined with its nonprofit advocacy arm -- Crossroads GPS -- the Karl Rove backed behemoth hauled in more than $71 million for 2010. Crossroads also reported spending $10.5 million -- indicating that they ramped up their spending in the run up to Election Day.

No million dollar contributions in this report but one that did jump out is $50,000 from Robert Basham, the president of Outback Steakhouse.

Stephen Colbert thinks Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) has the right look to be Republican nominee in 2012. Jon Stewart goes after Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for opposing the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" because military leaders didn't solicit the views of their subordinates: "I don't know how you can get more specific about their views, then: What would you do if you were showing with a gay guy? Without maybe giving the name of the actual gay guy they'd be showering with. Oh how about this, would you be okay with Roy? What about Jim?"

Today's Must See Moment - Fast forward to 0:18 to find out what happens when you criticize former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (R).

A presidential deficit commission is struggling to win the votes necessary to pass a sweeping austerity plan as members get set to vote on a final draft today. Despite lobbying efforts by commission chairmen Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, five of the 18 members have said they will vote against the plan, effectively scuttling its chances.

Bowles and Simpson have secured ten votes, while five commissioners have said they will vote against the proposal. Commission members include: Sens. Max Baucus (D-MT), Tom Coburn (R-OK), Kent Conrad (D-ND), Mike Crapo (R-ID), Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Judd Gregg (R-NH), Reps. Xavier Becerra (D-CA), Dave Camp (R-MI), Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), Paul Ryan (R-WI), Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) and John Spratt (D-SC), Honeywell International CEO David Cote, former Young & Rubicam Brands CEO Ann Fudge, Brookings Institute senior fellow Alice Rivlin and former SEIU president Andy Stern.

The vote will be held today. For a detailed look at the tough road for deficit cutters, check out Michael Hirsh's take here.

VOTES IN FAVOR
Bowles
Simpson
Coburn
Conrad
Cote
Crapo
Durbin
Fudge
Gregg
Rivlin
Spratt

VOTES AGAINST
Baucus
Camp
Ryan
Schakowsky
Stern

UNDECLARED/UNDECIDED
Becerra
Hensarling (May vote no)

Update: Spratt says he will vote for the package

In a historic action against one of its own, the House Thursday voted 333 to 79 to censure Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) on 11 charges of violating rules of the chamber -- a vote that overwhelming yet clearly wrenching for many of his colleagues.

Following the vote, Rangel walked down to the well of the House to receive his public rebuke, alone and looking somber, as Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) read a list of the violations.

When she concluded, Rangel responded, "I just want all of you to know that I know in all my heart that I will not be judged by this Congress, but by my life, my actions, and my contributions to society."

Before the vote, Rangel the 80-year-old Harlem lawmaker said in a 6-minute address that he brought these events "upon myself."

Rangel also apologized to his colleagues "for putting you in this awkward position," recalled it was 60 years ago this week he had been wounded in the service of his country in Korea, and said he "wants to continue to service this Congress and this country."

But Rangel also continued to argue that a fairer punishment based on House precedent would have been a reprimand. And two colleagues sitting on his right and left -- Reps. Bobby Scott (D-Va.) and Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.) both took up that same argument on his behalf.

It seems George W. Bush really wanted Dick Cheney to be vice president. Anybody's vice president.

In "Decision Points," Bush's memoir, the 43rd president says he tried to help George H.W. Bush shake up his re-election bid in 1992 with a hail mary.

"I told Dad he ought to think about a bold move to shake up the dynamics of the race. One possibility was to replace Vice President Dan Quayle, whom I liked and respected, with a new running mate," the younger Bush writes. "I suggested to Dad that he consider Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney."

That, of course, didn't happen. "Dad said no. He thought the move would look desperate and embarrass Dan. In retrospect, I don't think Dad would have done better with someone else as his running mate. But I never completely gave up on my idea of a Bush-Cheney ticket."

Thanks to Hotline pal Carl Leubsdorf for pointing out the passage, which is on page 49 of Bush's memoir.

By the way, Bush is doing a pretty good job selling the book. It's at no. 1 on both the New York Times and Amazon.com bestseller lists. Bush's book even beat out Sarah Palin's book, "America By Heart," which debuted this week at no. 2. Of course, Palin's book got some help; Sarah PAC spent $64,975 on copies of the book she could send to donors.

Wednesday's news that Sen. John Ensign (R) is no longer under investigation by the Department of Justice for possible ethics violations was undoubtedly good news if Ensign decides to run for re-election in 2012.

But -- judging from numerous conversations with Republicans in Washington and Nevada -- don't expect the courtship of Republican Rep. Dean Heller (Nev.) to challenge Ensign for the seat to let up any time soon.

Ensign is still viewed among Nevada Republicans as highly vulnerable to a credible Democratic challenger in 2012 because of the salacious allegations that he tried to cover up an affair with the wife of his former advisor. And after flubbing their attempt to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) this year, Nevada Republicans are on high alert that they need to hold on to Ensign's seat. Ensign is also still under investigation by the Senate Ethics Committee, which could result in sanctions or even expulsion from the chamber.

"I think Heller badly wants to run and I don't think this development will dissuade him," said Nevada politics guru Jon Ralston. "The bigger issue for Ensign is the national GOP. These guys are not dummies. They know he is more vulnerable to a Democratic challenge than Heller."

National Republicans are well aware of Ensign's political problems and several said on background that they would prefer Heller, a former Nevada Secretary of State, to be their nominee.

Heller is a very cautious politician, though, as evidenced by his staying out of the Senate race this year after being recruited to take on Reid. He is expected to make a decision on when he'll run in early July.

The main reasons why Heller may pass on the race is his relatively safe House seat and position on the Ways and Means Committee -- a plum post.

Neither Heller nor Ensign's staff responded to a request for comment.

Despite his public proclamations that he is seeking re-election, local Republicans aren't convinced Ensign will give it a go -- even if he is also cleared by the Ethics Committee.

"An indictment would have been fatal for Ensign," said Nevada Republican consultant Robert Uithoven. "But at the same time it's not like the political challenges just went away. They are still very real and hard to overcome."

More, a source close to Ensign who insisted on anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the subject, said Ensign's mind isn't made up.

"I think he will say he is running up to the last minute but I don't know that he will run," the source said. "Why be a lame duck senator when you don't have to be?"

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) has scored an early fundraising victory over potential 2012 foes Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty, outraising the former Alaska governor and the outgoing Minnesota governor over the last month and a half -- sort of.

Romney's federal political action committee and his series of state PACs, which are subject to different campaign finance laws, hauled in a combined total of more than $558,000 from Oct. 14 to Nov. 22, his spokesman told Hotline On Call. That breaks down to roughly $285,000 in federal dollars that will be reported to the FEC on Thursday and $273,000 in state-level fundraising.

Still, the varying laws in states in which Romney maintains PACs -- states like Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and Alabama -- mean donors can give the maximum amount to the federal PAC and then write separate checks, sometimes for larger maximums, to the state affiliates, effectively allowing Romney to legally double dip. The New York Times reported last month on Romney's network of state-based affiliates.

Palin sent waves through the political world earlier this week when Time reported that Palin raised $469,000 during that same period, aided undoubtedly by her recent book tour.

Pawlenty's fundraising was less impressive. The Minnesotan's federal PAC will report having raised $140,000 during that span and spending $302,000 when it files paperwork with the FEC later today.

Romney has always been a strong fundraiser but has remained under the radar during that time period compared Palin with her TV show and daughter's run on "Dancing With The Stars."

With less than 24 hours to go before the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility meets for a final vote on a draft proposal, commission chairmen Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson are scrambling to secure the 14 votes they need for a formal endorsement. And, despite early skepticism they would ever reach that goal, there is a path, albeit a narrow one, to pull out the political miracle.

Bowles and Simpson have secured nine votes, while two commissioners have said they will vote against the proposal. Commission members include: Sens. Max Baucus (D-MT), Tom Coburn (R-OK), Kent Conrad (D-ND), Mike Crapo (R-ID), Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Judd Gregg (R-NH), Reps. Xavier Becerra (D-CA), Dave Camp (R-MI), Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), Paul Ryan (R-WI), Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) and John Spratt (D-SC), Honeywell International CEO David Cote, former Young & Rubicam Brands CEO Ann Fudge, Brookings Institute senior fellow Alice Rivlin and former SEIU president Andy Stern.

The vote will be held tomorrow.

VOTES IN FAVOR
Bowles
Simpson
Coburn
Conrad
Cote
Crapo
Fudge
Gregg
Rivlin

VOTES AGAINST
Ryan
Schakowsky

UNDECLARED/UNDECIDED
Baucus
Becerra
Camp
Durbin
Hensarling
Spratt
Stern

Veteran Republican pollster Glen Bolger is up with an interesting analysis Thursday arguing that Democrats won't take back the House in 2012 for two reasons: First, presidential coattails in re-election bids are historically not very long and, second, Republicans have more control over the redistricting process than they've had in 20 years.

"Sorry, Dems," Bolger concludes, "but you are in the House wilderness for at least the next four years."

Bolger, a principal at Public Opinion Strategies, highlights three successful presidential campaigns -- Ronald Reagan in 1984, Bill Clinton in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2004.

In each instance, the wins brought only modest gains for the president's party in the House. In 1984, the GOP gained 16 seats on Reagan's coattails. Democrats picked up nine seats with Clinton's win in 1996 and the GOP netted only three seats when Bush won in 2004.

Those numbers suggest that even if Obama rebounds and wins re-election by a large margin, it may not reverse the GOP's successes this year.

Bolger also points out that Republicans have significant control over the redistricting process because of their gains in governorships and in state legislatures.

"In the 2001 redistricting process, Democrats drew the lines of 135 seats, while GOPers drew the lines for 98 -- a 37 seat advantage for the Dems," Bolger writes. "Now, Republicans control drawing 193 seats outright, while the Dems have just 44. That's a 149 seat advantage for the GOP."

Bolger notes, appropriately, that Republicans can't redraw all those districts to their advantage. In fact, we've reported that in some states -- like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan -- Republican gains may actually make their redistricting efforts much more difficult.

South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint (R) is turning his attention to 2012 and using the vote this week on an earmark moratorium to pick his Democratic targets.

DeMint sent an email to the supporters of his Senate Conservatives Fund early Wednesday highlighting four Democrats who voted against the earmark ban, are up for re-election in 2012 and sit in states that John McCain (R) carried in 2008: Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Ben Nelson (Neb.), Kent Conrad (N.D.) and Joe Manchin (W.Va.).

The email is DeMint's first foray into the 2012 cycle and suggests he will continue to direct Tea Party energy in 2012. DeMint was something of a kingmaker on the far right in 2010, backing several conservative insurgent primary challengers to establishment Republicans -- such as Sen.-elect Marco Rubio (R) in Florida and Sen.-elect Mike Lee (R) in Utah.

In the email, DeMint called for unseating Tester, Nelson, Conrad and Manchin.

"These senators are nice folks but they have ignored the will of the American people and they must be replaced with principled conservatives in 2012," he said. "That's where the Senate Conservatives Fund comes in and it's where you can help. We've already begun the process of building campaigns against these other liberals in the Senate who are driving our nation deeper and deeper into debt."

DeMint went on to ask for money -- stating that his fund will need "at least $4 million" to win the four races.

Pres. Obama holds a "Slurpee Summit" with Republican leaders to carve out a joint agenda. Jon Stewart on the get together: "A conversation twixt political leadership, in an effort to bridge legislative differences. Indeed. It's almost the way you though (bleep) was supposed to work all the time. Almost why they even have tables and chairs in the White House."

Jay Leno reads Obama's body language after the "Slurpee Summit" and isn't convinced the meeting went well.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:00 for the Four Loko Summit. Then vote on which summit you think would be the most successful in our Late Night Poll.

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Thursday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. Hard to believe Election Day was a whole month ago, isn't it?

On the radar today: the GOP looks for a New Mexico Senate contender against Jeff Bingaman (D) retirement speculation; John Ensign (R-Nev.) breathes a big sigh of relief; more drama in the Minnesota gubernatorial recount; Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.) expected to face censure vote and MoveOn Skypes the president.

Paging Heather Wilson? New Mexico Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) made waves on Wednesday by suggesting he hasn't ruled out retiring instead of facing re-election in 2012. "Certainly there are many pros and many cons, he told Politico.

The remarks sparked renewed interest in New Mexico Republican circles since the GOP gained the governorship and a House seat in the state this year. The problem, however, is that there isn't much of a Republican bench. The focus, so far, has been on former congresswoman and 2008 Senate contender Heather Wilson.

Wilson, however, didn't sound much like a candidate when reached by Hotline On Call late Wednesday. "I just have to focus on helping the governor and can't focus on that right now," she said, referring to her job chairing Gov.-elect Susana Martinez's (R) transition team. Wilson added that "the speculation is flattering."

Wilson is virtually the only Republican in New Mexico with a statewide profile, she held a Democratic-leaning Albuquerque seat for a decade before mounting an unsuccessful Senate campaign, when she lost to Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.) in the primary. Another Republican, Greg Sowards, also appears to be getting ready to run, according to his website. Sowards ran for Pearce's open House seat in 2008, but didn't make it through the primary. http://politi.co/gcLkFX
(By the way, Sowards has a great URL: www.shortbaldhonest.com)

Ensign Breathes Sigh Of Relief: Nevada Sen. John Ensign (R) got a major break on Wednesday when his lawyers announced that the Department of Justice was no longer investigating him for criminal and ethics violations regarding lobbying laws and the cover up of an affair.

"The Department of Justice has informed us that Sen. Ensign is no longer a target of its investigation and that it has no plans to bring any charges against him in this matter," Ensign lawyer Paul Coggins said in a statement.

The news is a boost to Ensign's re-election chances in 2012 - at least insofar as the primary is concerned -- but it still remains to be seen whether he'll face an intraparty challenge. Rep. Dean Heller (R) has been considering the race, and was viewed as ready to jump, if Ensign was forced to retire as a result of the investigation.

A mid-November Public Policy Polling (IVR) survey found Ensign leading Heller by a 45 percent to 37 percent margin among Republican voters. Also notable in that survey: 64 percent of Nevada Republicans approve of Ensign's job performance.

Ensign still faces an Ethics Committee investigation that could carry sanctions and even expulsion from the Senate with it. And the allegations involving the cover-up of his affair would be pretty damaging. (Can't you already see the attack ads?) But if he can make it through the Ethics Committee investigation, he could find himself in surprisingly decent shape for 2012.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) is reportedly considering the race.

Stay tuned to Hotline On Call for more on the political situation in Nevada.
Ensign Story: http://bit.ly/i6Sl2M
Poll: http://bit.ly/cVVdVS

Republicans are relatively bullish on the likelihood that Congress and Pres. Obama will be able to strike a deal to slash the deficit, but Democrats are skeptical, according to the results of the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

This week, 66 Members of Congress from both parties were asked how confident they were that Congress and the president would be able to enact a significant deficit-reduction package next year: almost two-thirds of the Republican Congressional Insiders said they were either "very confident" or "somewhat confident" that would happen. But at the same time, two thirds of the Democratic Congressional insiders said they were "not very confident" or "not confident at all" that a grand bargain would be reached in 2011.

Judging by some of the comments of the GOP Congressional Insiders, it sounded like what they were really confident about is that facing re-election in two years, the president would be forced to bend towards their position. Said one Republican Insider, "Obama will see the light, also known as 2012." Another predicted, "The president's entire domestic agenda will be frozen unless he acts on meaningful deficit reduction policies."

While Republicans are naturally more optimistic in the wake of their midterm election success which they see as a mandate to throttle federal spending, Democrats see the 2010 returns as a harbinger for gridlock. "Real progress on a host of issues, including deficit reduction, is pretty much impossible since the Republican base now views any compromise with Obama as something just short to treason," said one Democratic Congressional Insider. "I expect partisanship to be at an all-time high," added another.

Members of the Congressional Tea Party Caucus may tout their commitment to cutting government spending now, but they used the 111th Congress to request hundreds of earmarks that, taken cumulatively, added more than $1 billion to the federal budget.

According to a Hotline review of records compiled by Citizens Against Government Waste, the 52 members of the caucus, which pledges to cut spending and reduce the size of government, requested a total of 764 earmarks valued at $1,049,783,150 during Fiscal Year 2010, the last year for which records are available.

"It's disturbing to see the Tea Party Caucus requested that much in earmarks. This is their time to put up or shut up, to be blunt," said David Williams, vice president for policy at Citizens Against Government Waste. "There's going to be a huge backlash if they continue to request earmarks."

In founding the caucus in July, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) said she was giving voice to Americans who were sick of government over-spending.

"The American people are speaking out loud and clear. They have had enough of the spending, the bureaucracy, and the government knows best mentality running rampant today throughout the halls of Congress," Bachmann said in a July 15 statement. The group, she wrote in a letter to House Administration Committee chairman Bob Brady, "will serve as an informal group of Members dedicated to promote Americans' call for fiscal responsibility, adherence to the Constitution, and limited government."

Bachmann and 13 of her Tea Party Caucus colleagues did not request any earmarks in the last Fiscal Year, according to CAGW's annual Congressional Pig Book. But others have requested millions of dollars in special projects.

Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.), for one, attached his name to 69 earmarks in the last fiscal year, for a total of $78,263,000. The 41 earmarks Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-La.) requested were worth $65,395,000. Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.) wanted $63,400,000 for 39 special projects, and Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Utah) wanted $93,980,000 set aside for 47 projects.

Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) takes the prize as the Tea Partier with his name on the most earmarks. Rehberg's office requested funding for 88 projects, either solely or by co-signing earmarks requests with Sens. Max Baucus (D) and Jon Tester (D), at a cost of $100,514,200. On his own, Rehberg requested 20 earmarks valued at more than $9.6 million.

More than one member can sign onto an earmark. Still, there are 29 caucus members who requested on their own or joined requests for more than $10 million in earmark funding, and seven who wanted more than $50 million in funding.

Four candidates vying to serve as the next Republican National Committee chairman want conservative activists and the 168 members who will choose the next party leader to be clear about one thing: They're not Michael Steele.

The incumbent chairman has not said whether he will seek a second term, and he was not present at the first candidate forum of the year, hosted by FreedomWorks and a group of conservative members of the RNC.

And while candidates who hope to replace him disagreed on little during the two-hour forum, they spent the bulk of their time trying to convince RNC members they would offer the cleanest break after two tumultuous years under Steele's leadership.

Those candidates -- announced contenders Saul Anuzis, the former Michigan Republican Party chairman, and former Ambassador Ann Wagner, along with potential candidates Gentry Collins, the former RNC political director, and ex-chairman Mike Duncan -- offered a litany of complaints about the current state of the national party, stressing that beating President Obama is going to be harder than it was to win over control of the House this year.

The candidates echoed a two-year old narrative that the RNC had neglected its largest campaign contributors; that the committee had failed to fully fund an adequate ground operation, which allowed Democrats to win seats the GOP otherwise could have snagger; and that the incumbent chairman was not completely dedicated to his job and instead spent some of his time promoting a book he wrote at least partially while in office and giving paid speeches.

The RNC "fell short in many areas we shouldn't have fallen short in," Anuzis argued. Collins called it essential to "have a chairman who is laser-focused on raising the resources that it takes to run [a] ground game." "I intend to be a chairman full-time and faithfully, 24/7," Wagner said.

All four contenders took pains not to mention Steele by name. Only Collins, asked directly why Steele was vulnerable, uttered the incumbent's name. But they all agreed tending to the donor base in order to fully fund the party's vaunted 72-hour program was an essential, and neglected, factor in their bids.

Embattled Nevada Sen. John Ensign's (R) lawyer said Wednesday that he is no longer the subject of Department of Justice probe into the cover-up of his affair.

"The Department of Justice has informed us that Senator Ensign is no longer a target of its investigation and that it has no plans to bring any charges against him in this matter," Ensign lawyer Paul Coggins said in a statement.

The news could boost Ensign's chances of emerging as the Republican nominee in 2012. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) has been mentioned as a potential challenger, particularly if Ensign decided to retire and not seek re-election. If he's cleared, that prospect would be less likely.

The Department of Justice investigation centered on whether Ensign broke ethics rules and/or criminal laws in an attempt to cover up an affair. The investigation could have come with a prison sentence for Ensign.

Ensign isn't in the clear yet, though. The Senate Ethics Committee is still investigating him and that investigation could lead to sanctions or even expulsion from the chamber.

Jennifer Cooper, a spokesman for Ensign, said the senator hopes the Ethics Committee follows the Department of Justice's lead.

"Our office and the senator have been cooperative with this investigation, and it's important that the truth in this matter is finally coming to light," she said in a statement. "It is the senator's hope that the Ethics Committee soon follows suit."

Ensign was being investigated for the circumstances surrounding an affair with Cindy Hampton, the wife of Ensign's former adviser, Doug Hampton. When Ensign revealed the affair in June of 2009, it was reportedly because Doug Hampton had threatened to go to Fox News with the story.

The Nevada senator was also facing allegations from Doug Hampton that Ensign promised a high paying lobbying job to keep the affair under wraps.

On top of that, Ensign's parents reportedly gave the Hamptons a $96,000 check, but a complaint against that action was later dismissed by the FEC.

The Alaska Senate race between Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and attorney Joe Miller (R) is limping on this week, with a hearing in Juneau on Miller's lawsuit scheduled for Wednesday. Although Miller has successfully delayed certification of the race -- which was originally slated to happen on Nov. 29 -- consensus seems to be that he has nothing to gain by continuing the fight at this point. Even former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), who contested his 2008 race against Sen. Al Franken (D) for eight months before giving in, said "It should be time to move on."

So with it seemingly all over but the court case, it can be hard to stay riveted on the back-and-forth in Alaska. But Murkowski recently supplied a new reason to keep following the proceedings. Murkowski attorney Scott Kendall warned, in their campaign's motion to intervene in the lawsuit, that Murkowski would have a gap in service if she's not seated on time and she could, as a result, lose her seniority.

"There are numerous critical issues facing our nation and Alaskans deserve to have full representation in the United States Senate," Kendall wrote. "She would go from her current rank of 43rd to 100th."

Soon after the new Senate is sworn in on Jan. 3, Kendall said, the senators will organize committees and select the chairs and ranking members. If the case is still pending, he argued, Murkowski might not be eligible for re-election as the ranking member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee or an Appropriations subcommittee.

"The effect on Alaska from the loss of these positions would be very harmful and could be long-lasting," Kendall argued.

Murkowski's Senate seniority and ranking member position on the energy committee were key arguments she made during her campaign. If a trial that went on beyond the Senate swearing-in on Jan. 3 actually affected her seniority, it would be a serious blow. But how likely is such an outcome?

During Coleman-Franken, the most recent prolonged Senate race, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) put "placeholders" on Coleman's committee assignments so that Coleman could return to them if he eventually won reelection. McConnell spokesperson Don Stewart declined to comment on the possibility of doing the same for Murkowski, noting that it's still over a month off.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is out with one of its first attacks against a 2012 Republican Senate candidate - former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R).

And what's telling about the DSCC's attack is what it doesn't say about the Tea Party favorite -- not what it does. Instead of blasting her support of conservative principles - as it frequently did towards other Tea Party-backed candidates in 2010 - it goes after her perceived strength, as an outsider willing to take on the establishment.

The DSCC's statement is headlined: "Typical Politician Sarah Steelman Is No Outsider"

"Perennial candidate Sarah Steelman launching a campaign for public office is about as new as the sun rising in the East. Establishment insider Sarah Steelman has either run or publicly considered running in nearly every election for the last decade and a half," DSCC press secretary Deirdre Murphy said in the statement.

"Try as Sarah Steelman might, there's no escaping her insider past."

It's a telling line of attack, a sign that insider credentials are as damaging as perceived extremism in many cases - a lesson learned from the mediocre track record of Republican establishment Senate candidates this past election cycle.

Steelman has spent much of the last decade running for elective office, and served as state Treasurer and state senator during that time. But most politicos remember her as the insurgent candidate, mounting an unsuccessful and divisive gubernatorial primary campaign against then-Rep. Kenny Hulshof in 2008, where she attacked him as a Republican insider.

North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue was named vice-chair of the Democratic Governors' Association today, ascending to the number-two post despite facing the prospect of a tough re-election herself in two years.

Perdue is one of just two Democratic governors representing the South left standing after this year's midterms - the other is Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe -- and noted her background in accepting the position.

"As a southern governor, I am proud to be standing here with these people," Perdue said at a DGA event featuring governors and governors-elect from across the country.

Perdue joins Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, who was named chairman, in heading the DGA's leadership team. Both governors will be responsible for Democratic prospects in three states holding gubernatorial elections in 2011: Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Her biggest challenge will be defending Gov. Steve Beshear in Kentucky.

Perdue, however, will also be spending much of the next year preparing for a tough re-election campaign. Her approval ratings are poor, and state Democrats lost control of both houses of the legislature for the first time this century.

Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, who lost to Perdue in 2008, holds an early 12-point lead over Perdue, 49 to 37 percent, according to a PPP (D) survey conducted last week. The poll showed her with a weak 33 percent approval rating, with 49 percent of North Carolina voters disapproving.

Perdue said she is only planning to stick around for one year, and won't run again in 2012 when she's on the ballot along with 10 other governor's races across the country.

"I don't intend to be chair in 2012," she said.

Former Republican National Committee chairman Mike Duncan is still considering a comeback attempt and will join candidates for his old post on stage at a forum in Washington today, he told The Hotline.

Duncan served as chairman of the RNC during the 2008 campaign and sought a second term in 2009. He pulled out after three rounds of balloting when his support flagged.

But he is considering seeking a new term, and some who supported him in 2009 are willing to do so again. Duncan, a critic of current chairman Michael Steele, has been a part of informal talks among those who oppose Steele's effort for a second term.

His participation in the forum today will raise more eyebrows as he competes with candidates who have already declared their candidacies. The forum will include former Michigan GOP chairman Saul Anuzis, former Ambassador Ann Wagner, former RNC political director Gentry Collins and Connecticut Republican Party chair Chris Healy.

Former South Carolina Republican Party head Katon Dawson doesn't believe he will be a candidate for Republican National Committee chairman this year, forgoing a potential rematch with incumbent chairman Michael Steele two years after narrowly losing the race.

In an interview with The Hotline the same day a group of conservative RNC members hold the first public forum for chairman candidates, Dawson said he is paying close attention to the race, and that several friends are in the field.

But, he added: "I don't foresee myself being a candidate for the RNC unless some unusual circumstances were to happen."

"Am I a serious candidate for the RNC? If I was serious, I would be there today," Dawson said of the forum, being held this afternoon by the Republican National Conservative Caucus and FreedomWorks.

Candidates Saul Anuzis, Ann Wagner, Gentry Collins, Chris Healy and Reince Priebus will attend at least one event with RNC members over the next two days. Priebus will not participate in the forum, but he will be at the event tomorrow. Steele will not attend the event.

As candidates have jockeyed for position, Dawson was seen as a formidable threat. But this year, Dawson has been more interested in recruiting a big-name contender rather than securing support for himself. Those efforts, he said, have fallen through. Dawson said he is involved in four transition teams in his home state, including for Gov.-elect Nikki Haley (R) and Rep.-elect Tim Scott (R).

In 2009, Dawson secured 77 votes on the final ballot, just shy of the 91 votes that gave Steele the win. Dawson has been a relentless Steele critic ever since, going so far as to call on Steele to quit the post. On Wednesday, Dawson said he does not believe Steele has a chance to win a second term.

"There's no path to victory for him. [RNC members] are very respectful of the position and the title he has, and they will be very respectful of him on his way out," Dawson said. "This membership is going to be coy, they're going to be clever [and] they're going to pick the person who can restore" the RNC's reputation.

Dawson criticized Steele for putting the RNC in a big financial hole, the size of which will be revealed when the committee files its financial disclosure report with the Federal Election Commission on Thursday. The RNC, Dawson said, "is a brand in politics much like Coca Cola is in soft drinks, and it's a brand that badly needs to be restored."

Former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) officially launched her 2012 challenge to Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) on Wednesday, hoping to get an early jump on what could be a contested primary with former Sen. Jim Talent (R).

Steelman announced her run on a revamped website Wednesday morning and on Twitter.

"I want to do my part in fighting for America's future," Steelman wrote. "That's why I have decided to run for the United States Senate. We need to create an economic climate of growth where families keep their own hard earned income."

Steelman -- who has considerable Tea Party support in Missouri -- strongly considered running for the Senate in 2010, eventually giving way to now Sen.-elect Roy Blunt (R), the preferred candidate of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. As we reported on Tuesday, however, the NRSC has already told Steelman it will stay neutral in a race between her and Talent.

Jeff Layman, a spokesman for Steelman, told Hotline On Call Wednesday that Steelman will count on broad grassroots support to take on McCaskill, hinting at Steelman's Tea Party support.

"Sarah will have enthusiastic support from an energized grassroots and throughout our party," Layman said. "She is ready and able to stand toe-to-toe with a tough incumbent and win."

Talent has said he is strongly considering the race and will make a decision around the end of the year. Steelman's announcement will put pressure on Talent, as Steelman has a strong base of conservative support in the past. In 2008, she lost the GOP primary for governor but did serious damage to Republican Kenny Hulshof's chances in the general election. Hulshof went on to lose to Democrat Jay Nixon.

The progressive left is ramping up pressure on the White House on letting the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy expire by using Pres. Obama's own words from his presidential campaign in a new television ad.

The ad is funded by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and features footage of Obama in Iowa in 2007.

"We will also allow the temporary Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans to expire," Obama said then.

The ad shows the fine line Obama is walking with regard to the tax cuts. He'll face significant criticism from the left -- much of his base -- if he supports extending the tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.

But Obama stands to draw perhaps more criticism if he can't reach an agreement with congressional Republicans on where to draw the income line for extending the tax cuts. The tax cuts are set to expire at the end of the year.

Recent polling suggests a majority support extending at least the tax cuts for the middle class, but Republicans have repeatedly called for extending them all. At this point there doesn't appear to be a clear compromise between the White House and congressional Republicans on the issue.

In fact, Republicans on Wednesday circulated a letter indicating that they will block all Democratic initiatives in the lame duck session until the Bush tax cuts and government spending are addressed.

The ad will air for one week on cable in Washington and the group may extend the ad buy if it is able to raise money off of it. Check it out below.

Updated, 9:57 a.m.

More than eight in 10 Americans want to extend the Bush era tax cuts for at least some households by the end of the year, according to a new survey released Wednesday.

The new poll, from USA Today and Gallup suggests the hot button issue will continue to be a top priority for the White House and Congress through the lame duck Congress. If no compromise is reached, it'll be another blow to the White House as it looks to rebound off the midterm elections and the economy continues to recover at a slow pace.

A failure to reach a compromise would also get the new Republican House majority off on the wrong foot, as nearly 95 percent of Republicans in the poll want at least some of the tax cuts extended.

The poll comes a day after Pres. Obama met with congressional leaders of both parties at the White House to discuss issues including the tax cuts. Both sides expressed optimism of reaching a compromise, but it is still unclear what that compromise will be.

Forty percent want to extend the tax cuts for all households -- as Republicans have called for -- while more -- 44 percent -- prefer to extend them for households with an income limit. Only 13 percent want to allow all the tax cuts to expire.

Looking more deeply into the numbers, a vast majority -- 83 percent -- support keeping the tax cuts in place at least for individuals earning up to $250,000. More than half -- 57 percent -- would support extending the tax cuts for individuals earning up to $500,000.

The WikiLeaks document dump dominates late night. Jon Stewart analyzes WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, the world's newest super villain: "Assange is Osama Bin Laden crossed with Magneto and the albino from 'The Matrix', with more then a scootch of the Dyson vacuum guy."

Jimmy Kimmel reinterprets Dr. Seuss' "How The Grinch Stole Christmas!" with help from FNC's Bill O'Reilly.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:00 when Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack gives Stephen Colbert a 25-pound cheese head.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to December and the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: A well-heeled businessman considers a run against Sen. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan; the DGA taps Martin O'Malley; Alaska takes Joe Miller to court (really); Mark Dayton looks in control of the Minnesota gubernatorial recount; and Mitt Romney to appear with Jay Leno tonight.

Finding A Stabenow Challenger: So far, all the discussion about the 2012 Michigan Senate race has focused on outgoing Rep. and 2010 gubernatorial contender Pete Hoekstra (R) and whether he'll challenge Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). But here is another name you might be hearing a lot more of after the New Year: Tim Leuliette.

Leuliette is a businessman and major Republican donor who is considering the race.

"We're still digesting the last election," he told Hotline On Call Monday evening. "That's something we'll think about and talk about around the first of year."

Leuliette has made calls to prominent Michigan Republicans, according to sources in the state. He would bring a lot to the table -- most notably his checkbook.

Most recently, Leuliette was the CEO of Dura Automotive -- an auto parts distributor -- and managing director of the automotive group at Patriarch Partners -- a New York private equity firm. He held both of those positions until mid-October, so it makes sense he is looking for what he is going to do next.

If Hoekstra passes on the race (his spokesman declined to comment), Leuliette could step into the Republican void coming off a 2010 election where the GOP gained control of both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship. Michigan Republicans also have a history of being receptive to self-funding businessmen -- with Gov.-elect Rick Snyder (R) being the most recent example, along with Dick DeVos, who unsuccessfully challenged Gov. Jennifer Granholm in 2006.

Other potential Republican Senate contenders include Rep. Mike Rogers and Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, who briefly ran for governor this year.

DGA Taps O'Malley: Fresh off his re-election win this year, Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) will serve as chairman of the Democratic Governor's association during the 2011 cycle, according to DGA sources familiar with the decision. A formal announcement will come Wednesday at a DGA event featuring governors and governors-elect from across the country.

O'Malley has been considered a rising star in the Democratic Party since he was elected in 2006. He was particularly successful in 2010, winning his rematch with former Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) by double-digits, in a tough environment for his party.

There are three gubernatorial races in 2011 -- Mississippi, Kentucky and Louisiana. Democrats will have to defend Gov. Steve Beshear in Kentucky, which won't be easy. In Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) is considered a favorite for re-election and there is an open seat race in Mississippi, where Gov. Haley Barbour (R) is term-limited.

O'Malley will be facing off against Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), who was recently named chairman of the Republican Governors Association.

Murray Takes DSCC Job: Speaking of committee chairs, Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) accepted the job of chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Tuesday -- after plenty of hand wringing among Democrats. This is Murray's second stint at the helm of the DSCC -- she also led the committee in 2002. http://bit.ly/fggUdd

Alaska Challenges Miller: The state of Alaska filed a lawsuit on Tuesday calling for a federal judge to speed up its ruling on Republican Joe Miller's challenge to the Senate results -- another indication that conclusion of the race may be closing in (finally). The state is calling on the court to resolve Miller's legal challenge, which focuses on write-in ballots that did not write Sen. Lisa Murkowski's name as it appeared in her candidacy declaration, by Dec. 9.

From the AP: "They also want the judge to decide the case brought by Republican Joe Miller outright, in the state's favor, unless Miller provides proof to back up claims of fraud, which they call unfounded. 'Miller cannot invalidate votes merely by kicking up dust,' [lawyers representing Alaska] write. 'He must actually demonstrate compelling reasons why the court should do so.'" http://bit.ly/gl7lM9

There is a hearing set for Wednesday in Juneau to review Miller's challenge.