What Berkley's Vocal Support Of Tax Deal Means For A Possible Senate Run
Ever since the framework of Pres. Obama's compromise on extending the Bush-era tax cuts there has been one member of the liberal wing of the Democratic House caucus that has been particularly outspoken in her support of the deal: Nevada Rep. Shelley Berkley (D).
Berkley has voiced her backing of the framework on the House floor and told her Democratic colleagues they should also support the deal in a closed door meeting that got so testy that other members consoled her afterward.
Back in Nevada, Berkley's full throated defense of the compromise -- which now looks more likely to pass -- has strategists wondering whether she is moving toward a Senate run. Berkley would be a leading Democratic candidate to take on Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) in 2012.
"Nevada is pretty pragmatic in its politics and I think that Shelley Berkley demonstrates that," said Nevada Democratic strategist Dan Hart. "I would have to believe a potential Senate run in 2012 isn't out of her mind -- its probably in the forefront of her mind."
In an interview with Hotline On Call, Berkley said she is indeed considering a Senate campaign but insisted that her support for Obama's tax compromise has nothing to do with that.
"A possible Senate run has nothing whatsoever to do with my decision on this issue," she said.
Berkley can tick off a litany of reasons why the tax compromise is good for her district. Chief among them is the extension of unemployment benefits. Officially, her district has about 15 percent unemployment -- among the highest in the nation. Unofficially, Berkley estimates the rate may be as high as 20 percent.
"When you add it all up, there was never a question of where I was going to be on this compromise," she said. "It was not a matter with me of being disappointed that the president didn't negotiate a stronger package. This is the package in front of us. It's good for the people of Nevada, so I'm voting for it, plain and simple."
Even so, it's hard to avoid the political optics of her backing the framework. Berkley has had a very liberal voting record in the House, further to the left of many parts of Nevada like Reno, Elko, Pahrump and Dayton - all of which lie outside her district but are important to a statewide contender.
"If you were thinking of a statewide run," said Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston, "if you were seen as an unreconstructed liberal, if you wanted to show you could get moderate/conservative votes outside your super-Democratic district, this would be the right political move, too, to increase your statewide viability."
Berkley's support in context of a Senate run became even more notable on Monday, when Ensign -- her potential opponent in 2012 -- suggested he may oppose the legislation because its cost isn't offset by spending cuts.
"At least make a good effort and we are not making a good effort," he told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. "The debt and the deficit are real and it's a real threat to the long-term economy."
For Berkley, the move is even being applauded -- albeit, only on background -- by Republican strategists in the state.
"Joining with some Republicans on the issue most near and dear to Republican and Independent hearts - taxes - is probably a smart move for her even if it makes life more difficult dealing with Nancy Pelosi," said one Nevada Republican consultant.
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