Why Scott Brown Isn't As Vulnerable As You Think
For Democrats to hold on to the Senate in 2012 -- when they must defend 23 seats -- they'll need to offset likely losses with every potential pickup opportunity. A quick survey of which senators are up for re-election reveals what would appear to be the Democrats' number one target: Republican Sen. Scott Brown of deep blue Massachusetts.
But even among Democrats in the Bay State, there is a strong sentiment that Brown isn't as vulnerable as many might think. From his well-formed centrist brand, to his proven ability to raise money, to the lack of a well-funded Democratic challenger, it's becoming clear that Brown is no dead man walking in the halls of the Senate.
"On a scale of one to 10, where one is not vulnerable and 10 is very vulnerable," said veteran Massachusetts Democratic consultant and Boston Globe columnist Dan Payne, "He's probably about a four."
There are several reasons why Republicans are confident in Brown's 2012 chances and Democrats fear him. First are his poll numbers. A Public Policy Polling (IVR) survey at the beginning of December found Brown enjoying a 53 percent approval rating, making him one of the most popular politicians in the state. In every head-to-head matchup, he led.
Brown has also forged a bipartisan brand, which has found a welcome home among Massachusetts' unenrolled voters, which compose more than 50 percent of the electorate. Most recently, Brown has backed the compromise between Pres. Obama and Senate Republicans, showing he is willing to work across the aisle -- at least some of the time.
"He's not a partisan figure," said Eric Fehrnstrom, one of Brown's advisers. "People know his main focus is doing what is right for the people of Massachusetts."
What Democrat will run against Brown is also very much in the air. Vicki Kennedy has right of first refusal to her late husband's seat, but Massachusetts Democrats believe her when she says she isn't interested.
"Can Scott Brown be beaten?" asked Boston Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh. "Yes. Will it be tough? Yes. Who is going to do that? No one knows."
Rep. Michael Capuano (D) looks to be positioning himself for another shot at the seat after losing in the 2010 special election primary to Attorney General Martha Coakley. Capuano appeared to be playing to the liberal Democratic base in Massachusetts with recent comments that Pres. Obama could face a presidential primary challenge because of the deal he cut on extending the Bush-era tax cuts.
If Kennedy passes, Capuano would likely become the frontrunner in the race, and Bay State Republicans would welcome him as the nominee because he is much farther the left than Brown and, consequently, would leave those centrist voters open to Brown. His lackluster primary performance against Coakley didn't draw him many new backers, either.
After Capuano there is Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) -- the most conservative member of the congressional delegation. Lynch would likely only emerge from the Democratic primary if several Democrats to his left also run and split up the liberal vote.
With Massachusetts projected to lose a congressional seat, any of its members could choose to run for the Senate to avoid facing off against another incumbent after reapportionment. The dean of the delegation, Rep. Edward Markey (D), would be at the top of that list, but Democratic Massachusetts sources say it's unlikely he'll run. Same goes for Reps. Barney Frank (D), Niki Tsongas (D) and John Tierney (D). City Year Alan Khazei, who ran in the special election primary, may also run again.
Brown also starts out with a significant fundraising advantage against any challenger. He currently has nearly $6.8 million in his campaign account. Capuano has just $144,000 in his warchest, though Democrats believe he would be able to raise funds quickly by tapping into the national progressive fundraising base.
Brown has also worked to increase his fundraising operation, recently hiring John Cook, who headed Republican Charlie Baker's fundraising team during the gubernatorial race this year. Brown's inner circle believes he will have more money for his re-election campaign than any other senator up for re-election in 2012.
This doesn't mean Brown will skate to re-election. "I mean, come on, it's a Republican in Massachusetts," quipped one Bay State Republican strategist. "I would stipulate that Brown is the underdog," added Fehrnstrom.
And Republicans point to the virtually non-existent GOP infrastructure in Massachusetts as an obstacle Brown will have to overcome.
"A big problem for Brown is the wipe out the Republican Party has suffered here," said Massachusetts Republican strategist Todd Domke. "The party infrastructure hasn't' gotten much stronger."
Further, Brown has gotten some negative press of late, particularly for voting against the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" earlier this month.
Brown has also made a few political missteps, most notably backing scandal-plagued State Rep. Jeff Perry (R) in his bid for Congress this year. Brown stood by Perry even as details about Perry involvement in the illegal strip search of a woman when he was a police officer emerged. Perry went on to lose to Democrat Bill Keating.
One potentially significant factor in 2012 is how much Obama's re-election bid helps the Democratic nominee against Brown. Massachusetts gave Obama more money per capita than any other state in 2008, but even Democrats in the Bay State acknowledge that Obama's popularity in the state has suffered.
"It all depends on whether Obama has recaptured some of his luster," Payne said. "If he is popular and he reignites his base, he'll help the Democrat but it's too early to tell."
Brown also has a history of attracting split ticket voters. In 2004, he won a special election for his state Senate seat that Democrats purposely scheduled on the same day as the Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary -- when Bay State Sen. John Kerry (D) was running for the nomination. Brown won anyway. Brown followed that up in 2008 when Republicans were virtually decimated in Massachusetts. Despite Democrats pouring resources into the race to unseat him and Obama winning Massachusetts by more than 26 points, Brown won his state legislative district with 59 percent.
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