With Bayh Out, Cook Moves Indiana Gov. To Likely GOP
The governor's race in Indiana -- a key pickup state for Barack Obama in 2008 -- has moved from a toss-up to a likely Republican win in 2012, according to the latest rankings from the Cook Political Report.
Democrats turned over three House seats in 2006, and Obama became the first Democratic presidential nominee since 1964 to win the state in 2008. But Republicans regained two of those congressional districts in 2010 as well as the Senate seat vacated by retiring Democrat Evan Bayh. The GOP also won control of the state House and a supermajority in the state Senate.
Making matters worse for Democrats, Bayh recently announced that he would not run for governor in 2012. Potential Democratic contenders include Rep. Joe Donnelly, outgoing Reps. Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, and Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominguez. On the Republican side, Rep. Mike Pence is viewed as the strongest candidate if he doesn't run for president. Other Republicans in the mix: Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman, outgoing state party chair Murray Clark, state Auditor Tim Berry, state House Speaker Brian Bosma, and state Senate President Pro-Tem David Long.
"Unless there is a remarkable shift in the political environment, which is not outside the realm of possibility, it seems that Democrats' hopes of winning the governorship are considerably dimmer without Bayh in the race,'' says the Cook Political Report. "This contest has a very long way to go since the candidate fields on both sides remain undefined, but Republicans begin as the favorites to hold the seat.''
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