January 2011

House Republicans begin the 2012 cycle not only with a new majority but also in a significantly better financial advantage than their Democratic counterparts.

According to year-end fundraising reports filed Monday with the Federal Election Commission, the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee ended 2010 with $2.54 million cash on hand, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported only $805,000 after a bruising campaign cycle -- less than a third of the NRCC's bank account.

The DCCC also has $19 million in debt, while the NRCC will report just $10.5 million in debt, and that's after paying off $1.5 million since the November elections.

The one area of parity was in the final reporting period of the year, from Nov. 23 until Dec. 31, although Republicans still hold a slight edge.

In that period, the NRCC raised $1.88 million, while the DCCC took in nearly $1.68 million.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin led her potential rivals for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination in end-of-the-year fundraising, nosing ahead of her closest competitor, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Both Palin and Romney filed impressive year-end fundraising reports, due Monday at the Federal Election Commission. From Nov. 23 and Dec. 31, Palin's Sarah PAC hauled in $279,000. She finished the year with $1.3 million in her campaign account.

Palin's total is particularly striking because she outraised Romney using only a federal political action committee. Romney's series of state level PACs set up in Alabama, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire and South Carolina, detailed in a New York Times report last year, allows big donors to max out both to Romney's federal committee, the Free and Strong America PAC, and to his state organizations, which often have higher contribution limits.

That state network helped Romney outraise Palin in the previous reporting period, which covered mid-October to the end of November. He wasn't as fortunate in the final reporting period of the year. In the last five weeks of 2010, Romney's federal PAC raised almost $175,000 and his state PACs hauled in $36,000, bringing his total haul to almost $211,000 -- less than Palin's take for the same period.

Even so, Romney started out 2011 with more cash on hand than Palin. He has more than $1.44 million in his state and federal campaign coffers. Romney also outraised Palin for all of 2010, hauling in $6.3 million to Palin's $3.6 million.

Palin's fundraising success suggests that her unorthodox political strategy -- appearances on Fox News, occasional posts on her Facebook page and Twitter accounts -- has cultivated a dedicated network of contributors.

President Obama is scheduled to tour laboratories and speak to an invitation-only crowd Wednesday at Penn State University, but for the second time in as many weeks, his travel plans may be adversely affected by a significant winter-weather event.

The National Weather Service in State College, Pa., has issued a Winter Storm Watch from late Monday through Wednesday afternoon for a combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain, with the heaviest ice accumulation expected late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This is all part of a massive storm expected to bring crippling snow and ice from New Mexico north and east, all the way to Maine.

According to Penn State's student newspaper, the Daily Collegian, Obama is expected to tour laboratories and an on-campus energy hub devoted to energy-efficient building solutions. He is also scheduled to speak at 12:15 p.m. in Recreation Hall about clean energy issues. While the speech is open only by invitation, the Daily Collegian reported that Obama's remarks will be aired nationwide on the Big Ten Network, a cable network usually devoted to Big Ten Conference sports.

A White House spokesman said that there has not been a change to the president's schedule. Obama last visited Penn State in the weeks leading up to the 2008 Pennsylvania primary.

Closer to home, the storm is expected to be strictly a rain event in Washington by Wednesday, when temperatures are expected to surge into the upper 40s.

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) continues to keep Republicans guessing about his 2012 plans, and if he decides not to seek reelection, Arizona Republicans could be faced with a crowded primary with no clear successor to the state's junior senator.

Kyl plans to announce his decision in February, and some Arizona Republicans have their doubts about whether he will run.

"Months ago, it was just look, he's busy, he doesn't need to rush. But there seems to be something there there in terms of the speculation about him not running," said Arizona GOP strategist Jason Rose.

Still, there are strategic reasons for Kyl to delay a decision.

"There would be political wisdom in delaying the start of the cycle," said Rose. "Both to avoid any legitimate or semi-legitimate challenge to you within a Republican primary but also to forestall a Democrat from getting any momentum or being able to start any fundraising that might be necessary to take him on."

If Kyl runs for re-election, he will be heavily favored to hold the seat. But if he steps aside, a slew of names are likely to emerge with no clear front-runner in the mix. And party divisions could mean a competitive primary with candidates from opposite ends of the ideological spectrum.

According to Rose, possible candidates include members of the state Congressional delegation including Reps. Jeff Flake (R) and Ben Quayle (R) as well as former Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.). Rose also mentioned candidates on the right including former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.) and state Sen. Russell Pearce (R) as possibilities.

Hayworth, a strident critic of illegal immigration, unsuccessfully challenged Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in last year's Republican Senate primary.

Divisions in the party were illustrated in the state's recent GOP chairman's race. Tom Morrissey, a Tea Party-backed candidate, defeated Ron Carmichael, an establishment Republican backed by Kyl.

Sharron Angle (R) came up short in her race against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), but she hasn't totally faded into the background.

Speculation about Angle's next move has mostly focused on another Senate run in 2012 or even a possible entry into the GOP presidential field. One role the political prognosticators missed? Makeup Spokeswoman.

According to an invitation obtained by Hotline On Call, Angle was scheduled to appear as a "special guest" at a Jan. 21 promotion for SeneGence International makeup company in Las Vegas.

The invitation reads: "Sharron will be sharing her beauty and makeup challenges during the campaign and how she overcame them! She had confidence that she would look great with 14 to 16 hour days & with numerous appearances daily...so can you!"

Don't count on this helping her political career.

Less than a month after taking the gavel, House Speaker John Boehner (R) is already focusing on the road to 2012. Boehner's PAC, the Freedom Project, and his campaign committee will join to form "Team Boehner," a collaborative effort to work across platforms to raise money for GOP candidates.

Boehner's committees will focus on maintaining and expanding the Republican House Majority. Tom Whatman will lead Boehner's political operations with deputy Chris McNulty tasked with working closely with the National Republican Congressional Committee's political team.

Caitlin Wohlfarth, who oversaw the formation of the Boehner for Speaker program last year, will serve as finance director. Robyn Knecht will fill the role of deputy finance director and work with the NRCC's finance department. Knecht previously worked as finance director for Sen. Dan Coats (R-Ind.).

"On Election Day the American people spoke loudly and they spoke clearly," Boehner said in a statement. "They want more jobs, a stronger economy, and a government that is serious about stopping our government's job-crushing spending binge. The new House Majority has taken action to help end economic uncertainty and cut spending now, but the Democrats' agenda is still the agenda of Washington."

"With the White House and Senate in play and our new House majority to defend, there is much at stake in 2012," he continued. "Team Boehner's goal is to make sure that American families and small businesses understand that Republicans are listening to their priorities and concerns, and fighting on their behalf. Team Boehner is dedicated to helping Republican candidates share their vision for a smaller, more accountable and less costly government."

Boehner isn't the only one gearing up for the 2012 House elections: The DCCC is launching coordinated campaigns today against 19 vulnerable Republicans -- just the folks Boehner's team hopes to save.

Wisconsin Sen. Herb Kohl (D) loaned his campaign $1 million in the last quarter of 2010, seemingly putting to rest speculation that he may retire instead of seeking re-election next year.

According to his fourth quarter FEC report, obtained by The Hotline, Kohl contributed $1 million to his war chest while only spending $12,000. Because of the loan, he finished the year with slightly more than $1 million cash on hand.

Kohl, who will be 77 years old on Election Day next year, had been the subject of retirement rumors because of his age and near empty war chest. He finished the third quarter of 2010 with less than $26,000 in his campaign account.

But Kohl, who has significant personal wealth through his ownership of a grocery store chain and the Milwaukee Bucks, appears to be laying the groundwork to run for a fifth term.

He may face an uphill fight in that race, however. Wisconsin turned a few shades redder in 2010, as Republicans made significant gains at every level of government. No Republican has emerged to run against Kohl yet, but now-Sen. Ron Johnson (R) was a completely unknown quantity when he jumped in the race against Sen. Russell Feingold (D) last year and turned out to be one of the GOP's strongest 2010 candidates.

A Republican organization that backed Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) with independent expenditures and fundraising assistance says it will work to defeat Brown in a Republican primary next year in order to protect the party's brand.

Scott Wheeler, who heads the National Republican Trust PAC, said the group never expected Brown to toe a consistently conservative line, given his home state. But Brown's vote for the New START Treaty with Russia in late 2010 was a bridge too far, Wheeler said.

"We believe the Democrats' policies are destroying the country. Why let them take a Republican vote with them? If we're not going to have at least a symbolic vote against some of this garbage, then let's make the Democrats take the blame for it. It's their policies," Wheeler said in a Friday interview. "I say, no more Republican hostages."

The PAC spent about $95,000 on independent expenditure ads on Brown's behalf in the run-up to the January 2010 special election. That's a fraction of the amount other groups, like the Republican and Democratic senatorial committees, spent on the race. And the National Republican Trust isn't a major financial powerhouse; it raised $1.1 million through late November 2010, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission, and spent $1.4 million on elections.

But the PAC has a national network of donors, and Wheeler promised he would use the committee's resources against Brown.

"We're going to finance a primary opponent," he said. "I might even ask him to give our money back."

While Brown would be under no obligation to pay for an independent expenditure, the threat of a primary challenge can't make him happy. Brown will already have a difficult general election campaign, given the Bay State's liberal nature and the roster of Democrats lining up to challenge him, and spending any time placating a Republican base won't help his chances.

Missouri Republican Ed Martin announced Monday that he will run for the Senate, joining what looks like it will be a crowded Republican primary to take on Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) next year.

"Today I'm announcing that I'm running for the United States Senate in 2012," Martin said in a web video early Monday morning.

Martin's entry into the race has been expected for a couple weeks and adds a new dynamic to the Republican primary. Before Martin, only former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) had jumped into the race.

Steelman has sought to shore up support among influential Tea Party groups, including scheduling a meeting with Tea Party kingmaker Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) in Washington last December.

But there appears to be some reservations about Steelman in the conservative wing of the Missouri GOP, and that's exactly where Martin hopes to position himself. Martin founded a Tea Party group last year and capitalized on their support during his unsuccessful congressional bid against Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) last year.

Martin touched on those themes in his video Monday.

"I believe the 2012 election will come down to a very simple question," he said. "What should the size, scope and cost of the federal government be. Pres. Barack Obama and Sen. Claire McCaskill have answered this simple question. They've said the federal government should be bigger, it should be more powerful and it should be more costly."

Unsuccessful 2010 Alaska Senate candidate Joe Miller (R) may have his eye on a another statewide race.

A month after conceding defeat to Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), Miller targeted Rep. Don Young (R) in a release Sunday, potentially signaling a 2012 bid for Alaska's lone seat in the House of Representatives.

The release hit Young for his plans to re-introduce the Sealaska Lands Bill in the 112th Congress. And in a surprising move, Miller frames the debate in praise for Murkowski.

"It is encouraging that Sen. Murkowski has agreed take another look at those portions of the bill that have stirred up so much controversy," said Miller in the statement. "Certainly everyone will not be happy with the final product, but hopefully most of the issues can be addressed."

"However," Miller goes on, "I am very concerned with the fact that Rep. Young apparently hasn't been listening. I hope he will follow Sen. Murkowski's lead and take all of the interests of the region under advisement before putting his bill forward."

The release notes that Miller had called for withdrawal of the bill during the 2010 Senate primary. It characterizes the bill as "widely criticized as being a special interest boondoggle." The Sealaska bill would give the Alaska Native Corporation the option to select different land from the federal government, though not any additional land beyond what it is due.

When asked about the possibility of a Miller challenge earlier this year, Young dismissed the idea. "I think Joe's a little old for the job," said Young. "The only thing a House member has is seniority."

Congress has been in session less than a month, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is already going up on the air, targeting 19 vulnerable members with radio ads and a coordinated campaign as part of their effort to reclaim their majority in 2012.

The radio ads, web ads, and phone calls that begin Monday are part of the DCCC's "Drive to 25" campaign -- the number of seats Democrats need to take back the House. These 19 districts are must-wins for them in two years, and all but two members on the list are freshman. Many of them, such as Reps. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-N.Y.), Blake Farenthold (R-Texas), and Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) -- were surprise wins in 2010 and sit in districts Pres. Obama won in 2008.

The majority of the ads focus on the GOP's plan to cut spending, saying that their member has "a plan to cut education and research by 40 percent that will cost hundreds-of-thousands of jobs and make America less competitive." But there are two noticeable exceptions to that standard script: Reps. David Rivera (R-Fla.) and. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.).

Rivera is facing several deepening investigations related to his personal finances and campaign spending and is quickly becoming a thorn in the GOP's side, prompting speculation that he may not even finish out his first term. The DCCC's ad against the Miami freshman points out he's "under criminal investigation for receiving secret payments from his mother's company."

Fitzpatrick, who grabbed not-so-flattering headlines after missing the official congressional swearing-in along with National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas), also gets his own specially-tailored ad, asking, "Did you know [Fitzpatrick] is under an ethics investigation for skipping his swearing in to attend a fundraiser at the Capitol?"

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the day's political news.

Huntsman Getting Serious: Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) looks like he' s getting serious about a 2012 White House bid.

Politico reports that the White House expects Huntsman to resign from his post as Chinese ambassador in the spring and he already has a political team beginning to take shape. "Horizon PAC" has been formed to house his political team and is being led by Susie Wiles, a Florida Republican strategist.

If he does resign, Huntsman would immediately catapult as a serious contender in a Republican primary field. Huntsman would immediately share some of the same turf as former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), who is considered the front runner for the nomination at this early point in the cycle. Both are Mormon, both have considerable wealth and both tout their records as effective managers.

But Huntsman also faces some obvious and significant hurdles, if he wants to be a viable presidential contender. He's a moderate on some of the most hot-button issues in a Republican electorate - immigration, climate change and China, among them - nevermind the fact he served in the Obama administration. And he shares many of the same strengths (and weaknesses) as Romney, without the fundraising and organizational know-how - making a Huntsman campaign appear like Romney Lite.

Rubio Part Deux? Republican Adam Hasner, the former Florida House Majority Leader, appears to be moving toward a Senate run against Sen. Bill Nelson (D). And, if he pulls the trigger, he'll do it through a conservative grassroots network he's spent years developing.

Per Adam Smith in the St. Petersburg Times: " [F]or years the Boca Raton lawyer has built a conservative network and in recent weeks he's met with activists, money-raisers and political operatives in every corner of the state."

Hotline On Call reported almost two months ago that Hasner, whose wife is a former aide to Jeb Bush and ran Meg Whitman's 2010 California gubernatorial bid, was looking at the race. Since then, sources say he has only gotten more serious about a run. Hasner would position himself to the right in a primary against state Senate Pres. Mike Haridopolos (R) -- who is already in the race -- as well as outgoing Sen. George LeMieux (R) and Rep. Connie Mack (R) -- who are both seriously looking at it.

Hasner's biggest asset in the primary would be his record of opposition to Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who is deeply unpopular among conservative Republicans, and his relationship with Sen. Marco Rubio (R), whose path from near obscurity to political stardom would be one Hasner would try to replicate. Hasner's biggest challenge will be raising his statewide profile, but is considered politically savvy and, according to sources in the state, there are a lot of big name Republican players who still haven't lined up behind a candidate.

Rivera In Hot Water: Speaking of Florida, the investigation into freshman Rep. David Rivera (R-Fla.) is deepening, putting the House Republican leadership in a difficult position.

The AP reported over the weekend that Rivera allegedly paid himself $60,000 from his campaign account for unexplained activities dating back to 2002, according to a survey of campaign finance records. That is in addition to previous reports that the investigation has now subpoenaed a Rivera aide regarding the congressman's relationship with a dog track.

The controversy has made its way to Washington. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) was asked about it at a press conference late last week. More, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) has said that there will be zero tolerance for ethics violations in the new Republican majority and the Miami Herald reports that "House Republicans have said privately they're frustrated with the drumbeat of media attention surrounding the freshman lawmaker."

One thing looks like it's for sure: This headache isn't going away for the Republican leadership. Could we be seeing a 2011 special election for Rivera's seat (a fairly competitive district, that Democrats have contested two cycles in a row)?

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) gets a second chance at delivering a rebuttal to Pres. Obama's State of the Union address.

Bill Maher, on the State of the Union: "I love it when they come out and the guys says, 'Ladies and Gentleman the President of the United States' really loud so McCain can even hear."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:47 for Bachmann's second SOTU rebuttal. Then let us know what rebuttal you think was best in our Late Night Poll.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Evolving wisdom from The Hotline staff:

-- While everyone loves an instant poll, surveys of viewers conducted after a presidential address tend to be skewed; supporters of the president are more likely to watch than those who don't support him. What are better, if smaller (and sometimes partisan), measures? Dial tests and focus groups. The GOP group Resurgent Republic reports that voters in their group had a "mostly positive view" of the speech, but Obama's "dial test approval tended to drop among independents when he proposed additional federal spending." And those independents tracked closely with Republicans during Rep. Paul Ryan's response.

-- Not everyone in Washington is afraid of the Tea Party, apparently. With the ever-present threat of a primary challenge, moderate Republicans typically seem to have two options when re-election season rolls around: Pivot to the right or announce your retirement. But Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) apparently has opted for Door No. 3: Provoke. Lugar spent the lame-duck session supporting measures that the Tea Party strongly opposed, like the New START Treaty and the DREAM Act. He further distanced himself from the movement by coming out in favor of an assault weapons ban in the wake of the tragedy in Tucson. This all led to last week's meeting of Indiana tea party leaders who intend to unite behind one candidate in the hopes of ousting Lugar. Never mind moving to the right, it sometimes seems like Lugar is looking for a fight with the Tea Party. If so, he's in luck -- he's almost certainly going to get one.

-- There's no one coming to save Orrin Hatch (R-UT) from tea party anger: Tea Party Express consultant Sal Russo's praise of Hatch was quickly countered by both a statement from Tea Party Express chair Amy Kremer, and one from the Club for Growth.

-- For candidates who lost the RNC chair race, the thing to do this week was consider a Senate run. In Michigan, former state GOP chair Saul Anuzis (R) announced that he was mulling a challenge to Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). In Missouri, former state GOP chair Ann Wagner (R) announced her interest in a bid against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D). It wouldn't be unprecedented: as Anuzis pointed out, in 1994 Spence Abraham and >John Ashcroft both lost RNC chair bids and went on to become senators from, ironically enough, Michigan and Missouri.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) would like his supporters to know that he has settled his lawsuit against the House cafeteria over an olive pit he bit into nearly three years ago - and he'd like them to know in excruciating detail the effects that wayward pit had on him.

Kucinich had been seeking $150,000 in damages from Restaurant Associates, which operated the Longworth Cafeteria where he bit into a sandwich wrap and cracked a tooth on an olive pit. In the original court filing, Kucinich's attorneys argued that the ""sandwich wrap was unwholesome and unfit for human consumption, in that it was represented to contain pitted olives."

In a Friday afternoon email to supporters, which was also posted to his campaign website, Kucinich mocks the media attention paid to his suit this week. The Cleveland congressman writes that he would "prefer to focus your attention on my work dealing with the profoundly importing issues of the nation, such as job creation, getting the economy back on track, and ending the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq - it seems that some are more interested in discussing my personal dental issues. Given the degree of public interest you should know some detail."

And detail them he does. Kucinich writes of how the pit caused his tooth to "split in half, vertically through the crown and the tooth, below the level of the bone." But, he adds, although the "pain was excruciating," he went back to work nonetheless. However, the tooth anchored his upper bridgework, forcing the bone above the tooth to become infected. As a result of that infection, he was prescribed antibiotics, but an "adverse reaction to the antibiotics caused him "to have an intestinal obstruction and emergency medical intervention."

Virginia Tea Party Patriots Federation co-founder Jamie Radtke (R) stepped on the national stage Thursday as she addressed the inaugural meeting of the Senate Tea Party Caucus -- a move that raises her profile as she challenges former Virginia Sen. George Allen (R) in his bid to reclaim the seat he lost to Sen. Jim Webb (D) in 2006.

Radtke, a campaign consultant, said she was driven to run for the Senate because of the country's financial problems. She targeted Allen for supporting appropriations bills that she said added $3 trillion to the national debt and called him out for his votes in favor of raising the debt ceiling.

Allen voted to raise the debt ceiling each time it came up during his tenure in the Senate: 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006. Only one Republican voted against raising the debt ceiling each time: Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.). Former Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) split in 2002 but voted the same as Allen the last three times.

"The Tea Party movement would not exist today if the Republicans had not failed under the Bush years," said Radtke.

Asked whether Allen should have voted against those appropriation bills, Ratdke said: "Well, a good starting point is not to have 40,000 earmarks of your own" in those bills.

"When you look at the current climate right now, people are wanting to cut the overall spending," she said, adding that the public wants to "shrink" the federal government and has a "distaste for earmark spending."

Radtke said she would join the Senate's Tea Party Caucus if elected and backed Paul's proposed budget that would cut $500 billion in federal spending.

"I was very excited to see the plan would eliminate several departments and slash spending in many others," she said to the caucus according to prepared remarks.

Radtke is the first declared challenger to Allen but two elected officials from Prince William County are also weighing primary bids: Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart (R) and state Del. Bob Marshall (R).

She said that she shares an understanding with Stewart that conservatives need to unite behind one candidate in order to defeat Allen. However, Marshall has threatened to jump into the Senate race if the Republican candidates do not adequately address abortion among other social topics.

"I am talking about those issues. I'm strongly pro-life and I'm strongly pro-family and pro-marriage and that will not change on the campaign (trail)," said Radtke. "George Allen has some explaining to do on his pro-life position."

In a questionnaire published by the Richmond Times-Dispatch on Oct. 22, 2006, Allen stated that though he is against abortion, "any changes to Virginia's law should provide exceptions for rape, incest, or to protect the life of the mother."

This Sunday's political programming will take a look at what's in store for Congress this session with House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), who will sit down with Chris Wallace on "FOX News Sunday." In his first Sunday interview since being elected Speaker, Boehner will discuss some of the Republican ideas for cutting government spending and creating jobs, as well as how the GOP plans to handle their newfound majority.

CBS' "Face the Nation" has an exclusive interview with Pres. Obama's new Chief of Staff, William Daley. This will be Daley's first television interview since taking the job in the West Wing. Over on NBC, "Meet the Press" will discuss Senate politics with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) before Then turning to DNC Chair Tim Kaine to discuss what Obama's 2012 reelection strategy.

ABC's "This Week" will be a blast from the past as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) discusses how the Reagan revolution influenced a generation of conservatives and which leading Republicans can claim the Reagan mantle. Reagan's children will also be on to discuss their father's legacy.

C-SPAN will air a "Road to the White House" special featuring ex-MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) speaking at Politics and Eggs in Bedford, N.H. on Tuesday. Catch the likely 2012 presidential candidate on Sunday at 6:30pm ET.

This Weekend

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, DNC Chair Tim Kaine, GOP strategist Mike Murphy and ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN).

Face the Nation hosts WH CoS William Daley.

This Week hosts ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich, authors and brothers Ron and Michael Reagan, and sister/author Patti Davis.

Fox News Sunday hosts Speaker John Boehner.

State of the Union hosts Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), WH Commis on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform Chair Alan Simpson and ex-CBO Dir. Alice Rivlin.

Other Weekend Shows

Political Capital features WH sr. adviser David Axelrod (Bloomberg, FRI, 7pm).

Fresh off being restored to the Chicago mayoral ballot, Rahm Emanuel (D) is putting his sizable fundraising advantage to good use. The former Obama chief of staff's campaign released a radio ad Friday featuring excerpts from the president's remarks at Emanuel's White House send-off. In the spot, called "By My Side," Obama touts Emmanuel's role as an invaluable advisor during the first years of his presidency.

"I needed somebody at my side who I could count on to help get the job done," Obama says in the ad. "There was no candidate for the job of chief of staff who would meet the bill as well as Rahm Emanuel. And that's why I told him that he had no choice in the matter. He was not allowed to say no."

The ad should be well received in Chicago, the city that launched Obama's meteoric rise to the presidency. You can listen to the full spot below:

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) opposed ethanol subsidies during his Senate career, but now, exploring a run for the president, Santorum earned headlines this week when he embraced government supports for ethanol in the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa. Evidence suggests, however, his change of heart is not new.

"I guess you could say I've had a mixed record on that," Santorum said in an interview published this week by the website IowaPolitics.com.

Santorum attributed his changed views to the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

"Prior to 9/11, I was not a big fan of ethanol subsidies," said Santorum, "but 2001 change my mind on a lot of things, and one of them was trying to support domestic energy and this is part of it."

Cynical observers might suggest that Santorum is only supporting ethanol subsidies now that he is a potential candidate in the Iowa caucuses.

But Santorum, in a column on energy published two years ago in the Philadelphia Inquirer, implored his "hard-core conservative friends" to "hold on to your hats" as he announced: "What we need is a government mandate! We need to mandate that all cars sold in the United States, starting with the 2010 model year, be "flex-fuel vehicles" -- that is, they should be able to run on a blend that is 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline (the so-called E85 blend), or even a coal-derived methanol/gas mixture."

Santorum isn't the only potential 2012 candidate with a nuanced view about ethanol subsidies as Republicans try to court Iowa caucus-goers, with other Midwestern politicians having staked out positions during their careers.

-- Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty asked for ethanol subsidies from the state legislature during his term.

-- Indiana Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels has supported ethanol production in his home state, but a statement provided to National Review Online earlier this month affirmed his opposition to the federal subsidy.

Former Time Magazine reporter Jay Carney will take over for outgoing White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs at the podium, the White House said late Thursday.

But while Carney has gotten good reviews for his tenure as Vice President Joe Biden's communications director, there's one person who may not believe he's doing a good job: Carney himself.

Here's Carney appearing alongside former White House Press Secretary Joe Lockhart, on March 6, 2006, when he says Lockhart's job is "a tricky job that I wouldn't be any good at:"

The Tea Party infighting in Utah is a warning sign to Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) that no single endorsement is enough to inoculate him from criticisms that he's not conservative enough for Republican voters.

The Tea Party Express' consultant Sal Russo praised Hatch, in an interview with National Review Online, calling him an "original tea partier," and invoking Hatch's early support of Ronald Reagan in 1976. "Yeah, you know, Orrin is a Reagan conservative," Russo told NRO. "As far as I'm concerned, that's as good as it gets."

But even though she works for the same organization, Tea Party Express chair Amy Kremer didn't agree with her colleague.

"In regards to Sal Russo's comments, what Mr. Russo was getting at is that we will continue to approach each race with a sense of the greater perspective and understand the Reagan principle that our 20 percent enemy is still 80 percent our friend," she said in a statement.

"There is great excitement and energy amongst Utah tea-party activists about the prospects for a constitutional conservative candidate to step forward and offer an alternative to Senator Hatch in 2012. If and when that should happen, we here at the Tea Party Express will evaluate those candidates."

Meanwhile, the Club for Growth, which is a major player in Republican primary contests, and has occasionally backed challengers to sitting Republican members of Congress, also chimed in - against Hatch.

"While Senator Hatch's activity in the 1976 presidential campaign is commendable, a lot can change in 35 years," Club for Growth President Chris Chocola said in a statement. "We have made no decision about the upcoming Utah Senate race, but when we do, our decision will be about improving the Senate in 2013, not 1977."

This is not the first time that tea partiers have rebelled against the idea that any one person or any single organization can speak for them, and it shows that Hatch can't depend on any one group's support to protect him from former Senator Bob Bennett's (R) fate - even if it's the Tea Party Express.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Penn.) has hired two Iowa-based political strategists to advise his America's Foundation PAC, adding new staff in Iowa after hiring an aide in New Hampshire last week.

Santorum's newest additions, Nick Ryan and Jill Latham, both work for the Des Moines-based Concordia Group LLC, which specializes in corporate and political consulting. Both have a long history in Hawkeye State politics: Ryan has advised Iowa congressional campaigns for more than a decade, and Latham served as the state director for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) 2008 White House bid.

"I am extremely pleased to have Nick and Jill on board to assist with my PAC's efforts in Iowa and across the country," Santorum said in a release. "They have a proven track record of building grassroots support for candidates and conservative causes. As I continue to consider a run in 2012, they will play a critical role in helping determine if we are able to build the necessary support to embark on a possible run."

The addition of Latham is particularly notable, as she represents the second high-profile Romney supporter in recent weeks to join Santorum's team -- veteran New Hampshire activist Claira Monier took over Santorum's Granite State affiliate earlier this month. Latham is Rep. Tom Latham's (R-IA) daughter.

"As someone who played an active role in the 2008 Republican presidential primary, I have seen firsthand what appeals to Iowa Republican caucus goers -- conservative values, honesty and a commitment to standing up for what you believe in -- all attributes that Senator Santorum has," said Latham. "I look forward to working with Senator Santorum over the weeks in months ahead."

Santorum has visited Iowa nine times since November 2009, including a stop this week to adress the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association.

Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R) thinks he knows what the voters of Texas are looking for in their next U.S. senator.

"They want somebody who has a consistent record as a conservative, who has the courage to go to Washington and stand up to the Washington establishment," Williams told Hotline On Call. "I have such a record."

Williams officially launched his Senate bid Thursday, but he's been preparing to make a run at the seat for some time. Williams got into the race to replace Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) when she challenged Gov. Rick Perry (R) in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary. But Perry's victory kept Hutchison in the Senate, and Williams put his candidacy on hold.

Williams was planning on making a run for the seat in 2012 whether Hutchison decided to run for re-election or not, he said. But Hutchison announced her retirement last week, and the GOP field is already getting crowded.

Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R), former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams (R) and Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones (R) have already announced their candidacies. Lieutenant Gov. David Dewhurst (R) and Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert (R) are also expected to join the race.

But Williams is confident he eventually will emerge from the pack. For evidence, he pointed to his three statewide victories for Railroad Commissioner, as well as his strong base of supporters that includes Tea Party activists.

"I enjoy an enormous amount of support among the grassroots of our state as well as Tea Party patriots in our state," Williams said.

Another winter storm hits the east coast, leaving many people in Washington D.C. without electricity. Jay Leno on the storm: "Completely shut down Washington D.C., ... it's like the Tea Party's dream come true."

Pres. Obama answers questions from YouTube users on his drug policy.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:40 for Jimmy Kimmel's, "This Week in Unnecessary Censorship".

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump.

Indiana Rep. Mike Pence (R) said Thursday evening that he will not run for president, a move that positions him to be the frontrunner in next year's Indiana governor's race.

"In the choice between seeking national office and serving Indiana in some capacity, we choose Indiana," Pence said in a letter to supporters, according to the Indianapolis Star. "We will not seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012."

Pence had been on the fence about whether he would run for governor or president since he resigned his post as chair of the House Republican Caucus in November. His announcement on Thursday virtually guarantees he'll run for governor, though he didn't outright say that was his intention.

After the election in November, Pence was encouraged to run for president by several members of the conservative wing of the GOP, including former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas).

But a run to succeed term limited Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) -- another potential White House contender -- always seemed more likely. And Pence also fielded significant encouragement to seek that post as well, especially from the Republican Governors Association. The first candidate recruitment call Texas Gov. Rick Perry made when he became RGA chair was to Pence, and RGA Vice Chair Bob McDonnell (R-Va.) and Executive Director Phil Cox met with Pence on Wednesday to follow up.

Don't expect an announcement that Pence will run for governor soon, though. Indiana law prohibits a statewide candidate from raising money until the state legislative session has concluded. This year, that won't be until April.

Veteran Republican strategist Ed Gillespie expressed concern on Thursday that his party may not be ready for the upcoming redistricting battle yet.

Gillespie helped lead his party to historical gains in the state legislatures that will draw the maps as head of the Republican State Leadership Committee last year. In an interview with Hotline On Call, Gillespie said the next step in the redistricting process -- having the gigabytes of data ready for state legislators -- worries him.

"I don't think there is, for the next phase, the infrastructure to pick up where that leaves off," Gillespie said. "In some places they do [have the data] and some places they don't."

He agreed that when the Republican data group, Making America's Promise Secure, fizzled, it left Republicans scrambling for a replacement. "Folks are working on it," he said. "It's a priority for a lot of people in the party, and there's time. "

The former Republican National Committee chairman did say, however, that Republicans might be less prepared data-wise in the first states to redraw their maps: New Jersey, Virginia, Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi.

Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) has decided to reveal his long-awaited decision about his political future in an interview Thursday evening with The Indianapolis Star -- suggesting that the congressman, who is being urged to run for president by some conservatives, is leaning towards the Indiana governor's race instead.

The newspaper posted an announcement of the forthcoming interview on its website at 3:46 p.m., shortly after a National Journal story quoted Pence's mother as saying the announcement would come tomorrow. It was not clear whether the comments from the congressman's mother moved up his timetable.

"You called his mom," Pence spokesman Matt Lloyd protested when an NJ reporter called to inquire about the latest reports about an evening announcement, which appeared first in Politico. Meanwhile, Brian Howey, author of an Indiana political newsletter, reported Thursday that Pence will say he's not running for president.

The fast-breaking developments occurred within an hour of an interview with the National Journal by Pence's mother, who has been urging him to finally put an end to all of the building speculation over his political future.

"He will be making his announcement tomorrow," said Nancy Pence Fritsch, contacted today by telephone at her home in Columbus, Ind.

Asked to confirm reports that she has told her son to make up his mind, the congressman's mom did not deny it.

"What's a mother to do?" she said.

As for what her son will announce, she said: "I have nothing more to say."

A group of Yale students is hitting the airwaves in Iowa, New Hampshire and Indiana with a new ad urging Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) to run for president.

The ad will be the first official presidential ad of the 2012 cycle.

Students for Daniels will air the ad for the first time during the NFL Pro Bowl on Sunday in the Des Moines media market.

The ad directly appeals to voters who backed Pres. Obama in 2008 but have been disappointed in his performance and, in particular, the country's rising deficit.

It features a 20-something woman saying she "met this guy a couple years ago." "He told me he was different," she says. "He bought me a car, he even subsidized my medical insurance. Everything was perfect. Until I got my credit card bill. Turns out he was spending all of my money."

Daniels, she says, "doesn't need to rely on fancy rhetoric or empty promises. You know what he's all about? Fiscal responsibility."

How influential the ad becomes remains to be seen. A spokesman for the group, which was founded in early January by Yale students who supported Obama in 2008, said they are spending $1,250 on the initial Iowa ad - a relatively small amount even though advertising in Iowa at this point in the cycle is typically inexpensive. They have also reserved a air time for next week in Iowa, New Hampshire and Indiana and hope to keep the ad on air longer if they can raise more money.

Check out the ad below.

Former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R) told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch Thursday that he will not challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) in 2012. Talent, originally thought to be a likely contender in the race, has in recent weeks sparked widespread speculation that he would pass on a bid. Now that he's making it official, the Republican primary field is expected to expand quickly.

"There's just a lot of unfinished business that is a top priority for me, and that is where my interest and my passions are. I thought I could serve my country and my family better by continuing that work," Talent told the paper. "I talked to my political advisers and asked, can I run and keep doing all these things at the same time? They said, 'No, you cant.'"

Talent said he would formally announce his decision not to run via a statement tomorrow. He told the paper he believed he would have been a strong candidate, but that the race would be difficult.

Sources close to Talent said the former senator has known for weeks that he didn't have the fire in his belly to run a competitive statewide race in 2012.

As for what role he could potentially play in a Mitt Romney administration -- Talent served as a senior advisor to the former Massachusetts governor's 2008 campaign and recently traveled with Romney on his Middle East trip -- Talent told the Post-Dispatch it was too soon to say. "Should he decide to run, I want to be in a position to help him," he said.

Former Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) is currently the only Republican in the Senate race, but Talent's exit makes the possibility of a large, contentious Republican primary more likely.  Republican National Committee chair candidate Ann Wagner (R) has said she is considering the race, and that she wouldn't run if Talent decided to get in. Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R) is considering a run for the Senate as well and her verdict will also be motivated by Talent's decision.

Other Missouri Republicans who've said they are considering the race include Rep. Sam Graves (R) and 2010 congressional candidate Ed Martin (R).

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's Redistricting Q&A feature, where we sit down with some of the biggest players in the map-drawing process. Last week, we featured former Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), who highlighted how cutthroat New York redistricting can be.

We now turn to Bill Burke, the executive director of the Foundation for the Future - a 527 group that has become a go-to for Democrats across the country when they are looking for technical map drawing expertise. Burke has worked in Democratic politics for more than 20 years, including a stint at the Democratic National Committee.

In our chat, Burke discusses how and why the foundation was founded, as well as his meetings with state legislative leaders to make sure they are up to speed on the process. In some cases, he notes, they aren't because a lot of them haven't been through redistricting before. Burke also reveals how robust the data his group is providing is - including voters' electoral and even consumer history

The Hotline: Let's start with how the Foundation for the Future started.

Bill Burke: We started operations in July of 2006. Back then there was a lot of concern among a lot of groups around town -- labor, some of the other constituency groups -- about redistricting in 2004 after what happened in Texas [when Republicans redrew the map to their advantage]. There was a fear that what had happened in Texas would occur in other states. There was also worry that we may not be prepared, in the event that that happened. So AFSCME, the AFL-CIO, the National Committee for an Effective Congress and others began talking about what they needed to do to combat it. It was agreed that an operating unit needed to be set up to defend what the situation was at that time, but also to prepare for the 2011 redistricting.

Hotline: What was the Foundation set up to provide?

BB: Data and map-drawing assistance. We're offering it as services; we're not going to draw any maps on our own. If a legislative caucus leader should ask us for assistance, we will help them.

The Hotline: You have said that a goal of the Foundation is to focus on the state level - that the process shouldn't be controlled in D.C. Have you guys been meeting with state legislative leaders?

BB: Yes. We've gone to legislative leaders in 35 states.

Hotline: Starting when?

BB: Three years ago.

Hotline: So they're aware that you are there to help with technical expertise as the census numbers come in and the political process begins ramping up.

BB: Right.

A fast-developing race is off to a slow start in West Virginia.

Now that the state Supreme Court of Appeals has ruled that a special gubernatorial election must be held this year and acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) has set Oct. 4 as the date, the state has moved on to yet another sticky issue: whether to choose the parties' nominees by nominating convention or to change the law so that there is a primary.

While the Senate race to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D) in 2010 also began with confusion and legislation, there was much less uncertainty when it came to candidates. But this time, there is no superstar of then-Gov. Joe Manchin's (D) caliber and no self-funder like businessman John Raese (R). As a result the Democratic field is muddled and the Republican field very far from settled.

On Tuesday, Tomblin asked the legislature to replace the convention with a June 20 primary, but it is not yet clear whether the legislation will pass. How the nominees are chosen will affect perspective candidates' chances, and until that decision is finalized, the race is truly up in the air on both sides.

"The only certainty right now is that everything is uncertain," said West Virginia pollster Mark Blankenship. The sentiment that the field is wide open was confirmed by an automated poll released this week, in which 1105 respondents weighed in on 16 distinct matchups pitting four Democrats against four Republicans.

Eyeing the race on the Democratic side are Tomblin, state Treasurer John Purdue (D), state House Speaker Rick Thompson (D), Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D), acting state Senate Pres. Jeff Kessler (D), and state Sen. Brooks McCabe (D).

When nominees are chosen via a convention, often the more extreme elements of the parties have a greater voice, benefiting the more liberal Democrats and more conservative Republicans. The prevailing wisdom among West Virginia political observers is that Purdue and Thompson would benefit most on the Democratic side from a convention, both because they have union support and strong networks within the party.

South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, a Tea Party favorite, is heading to Iowa to deliver a speech in March -- a move that is fueling speculation that DeMint is considering a White House run, even as he publicly denies interest.

DeMint will speak at a forum hosted by Iowa Rep. Steve King in Des Moines on March 26, according to sources close to DeMint. News of the appearance was first reported by The Iowa Republican.

DeMint's travels to Iowa are a notable contrast to his public positioning. Asked Wednesday if he is going to run for the presidential nomination, DeMint told CNN flatly "no, I'm not" yesterday in an interview with Wolf Blitzer. That's hardly a Shermanesque denial, though, and leaves him open to change his mind at a later date.

According to sources briefed on the event, the forum will be for potential 2012 contenders but DeMint will not be one of them. Instead, DeMint was asked to deliver an address on the conservative agenda in the Senate and looking ahead to the presidential race.

Whether he runs or not, there's no doubt that DeMint wants to have an impact on the Republican 2012 primary - even as it is unclear whether he'll run himself.

One of DeMint's advisers pointed out to Hotline On Call that DeMint hasn't completely shut the door on a White House run, despite the CNN remark. And another source close to him told CNN on Thursday that they put the odds of DeMint running at five percent.

A spokesman for DeMint said the trip to Iowa should not be viewed as an indication he is considering a presidential campaign.

"Senator DeMint has absolutely no plans to run for president," said Matt Hoskins, a DeMint spokesman. "He's going to Iowa to talk about the conservative agenda -- nothing more, nothing less."

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) spent a lot of time and treasure in Iowa in 2008, and all he got was a lousy second-place finish behind Mike Huckabee (R).

So as Romney contemplates kicking off another bid for president, his team is considering a new approach. Sources tell us Romney's strategists have spoken with potential consultants about skipping the Iowa caucuses altogether and launching a campaign from New Hampshire.

That strategy first came up last summer in conversations with several possible advisers. But it's not clear how far along the planning has gotten, and sources emphasize that no final decisions have been made.

But Romney is clearly signaling that the Granite State will be his top priority in 2012. As I wrote in Thursday's On The Trail column, Romney has held several private meetings at his home on Lake Winnipesaukee, just north of Manchester and Concord, according to people who have attended the events, to garner support. The events are secretive; attendees are invited just a few days before and are asked not to share the information.

Romney's top advisers, including spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom, former campaign manager Beth Myers, lobbyist Ron Kaufman, and others are making Romney's presence felt in New Hampshire. Late last year, they held a Christmas party in Manchester with supporters.

Giving less attention to Iowa is a time-tested tradition. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) barely set foot in the state during the 2008 campaign; instead, he watched results roll in from New Hampshire, the state that saved his campaign. Bill Clinton, and almost every other Democrat running in 1992, skipped the state because home-state Sen. Tom Harkin (D) was also seeking the nomination.

While Pres. Obama appealed in his State of the Union address for a bipartisan "principled compromise" to fix the country's finances, Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill have starkly different views about how to deal with one of their first major fiscal tasks, raising the debt ceiling.

According to the this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll, a solid majority of Democrats favor just passing a clean bill to raise the nation's debt limit, while a majority of Republicans want the measure to include cuts in spending across a range of government programs.

And the two sides don't seem close to striking any bargain. For instance, only 19 percent of the Democratic members of Congress surveyed said they're ready to attach cuts in nondefense discretionary spending to the debt ceiling bill, while 97 percent of the Republican members favored that course. On entitlement cuts the gap between the two parties was almost as great: only one-tenth of the Democrats were willing to link those to the debt ceiling, while two-thirds of the Republicans were ready to take that step.

While one Democratic Insider said that "entitlement cuts and tax increases will kill the measure, but discretionary and defense spending should be heavily scrutinized," most were leery of using the debt ceiling bill as a budgetary vehicle. "Rather than hastily adopting arbitrary changes to federal fiscal policy that significantly impacts a large segment of the population, Congress should invest the time and resources to produce a cogent and comprehensive plan to reduce the debt and deficit," said one Democrat.

But Republicans appear determined to get a hefty reduction in outlays in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. "The Republicans must insist on enormous spending cuts and get a very good deal with Obama or they will not be able to pass this vote," vowed one Republican Insider. "It will be the marquis vote of the first half of the year." Added another, "Republicans don't want to shut down the government, but they do want to shut down this government."

Stephen Colbert thinks Pres. Obama laid out a clear plan to move the U.S. forward in his State of the Union adderss, "Yes, we'll win the future. If we just keep pumping quarters into it, this thing has got to pay up. We're due!"

Jon Stewart focused on the human stories from the State of the Union.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:35 when Jimmy Kimmel eavesdropped on members of Congress as Obama entered the House.

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Thursday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the day's political news.

Romney v. Obama: Mitt Romney offered tough criticism of Pres. Obama's leadership Wednesday night in remarks that were sharper than usual from the former Massachusetts governor.

"He's trying awfully hard," Romney said on Sean Hannity's Fox News show. "The problem is, he just doesn't know what to do."

Romney went on to sharply attack Obama's approach to the economy, calling it "sad."

"It's sad to watch in some respects because obviously we care very deeply with what's happening with the country, we want people to get back to work," he said. "But he just doesn't know what the right things are that he's got to do to make that happen. He's really put in place over the last two years about the most anti-investment, anti-business, anti-jobs regimen that we've seen probably in the past couple decades."

It was a rare television appearance for Romney, who has been much more selective about his public appearances than many of his presidential rivals, some of whom are paid contributors on FOX News and are seen frequently on the channel.

And as Reid Wilson points out in today's "On The Trail" column, Romney has been relatively quiet on the campaign trail as well, not holding a public event in New Hampshire since last October - with the next Granite State stop not until March.

Speaking Of The Invisible Primary: While meeting with local activists in South Carolina on Wednesday, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) said he is "seriously thinking" about a White House bid but he "won't make a decision until April.

From the Spartanburg Herald-Journal: "Barbour was in the Upstate for two private meetings with Republican activists, community leaders and donors in Greenville and Spartanburg --key areas for any GOP candidate hoping to claim the primary in a state that historically has played kingmaker in the Republican presidential nominating process."

Stabenow Under 50: New Republican polling shows Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) could face a difficult reelection campaign if a serious challenger emerges.

The Wilson Research Strategies poll found that only 33 percent said they would vote to reelect Stabenow. Another 23 percent said they would definitely vote for Stabenow's opponent, regardless of who it is.

In hypothetical match ups, former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land trails Stabenow 46 percent to 41 percent. Former Rep. and 2010 gubernatorial contender Pete Hoekstra trails by a similar margin -- 47 percent to 41 percent.

Though it is still very early in the cycle, the big question in the race is who will run against Stabenow. There has been radio silence from Hoekstra and Land, while businessman Tim Leuliette continues to consider the race along with former Michigan Republican party chairman Saul Anuzis.

Former Michigan GOP Chairman and 2011 Republican National Committee Chair candidate Saul Anuzis would face several hurdles if he decides to challenge Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow in 2012.

Chief among them would be other potential contenders with much larger statewide profiles -- such as former Rep. and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Pete Hoekstra and former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, an Anuzis ally -- who, on paper at least, would be stronger candidates against Stabenow.

But given the radio silence from Land and Hoekstra's camps, Anuzis told Hotline On Call this week that he is working tirelessly to see if he could fill what appears to be a candidate vacuum.

"It's still very early and no one else has really emerged," he said. "So, there is plenty of time for the decision making process."

Anuzis has never held elected office before and, despite his high profile within the state GOP, he has little name I.D. throughout the state.

Those issues are apparent in polling conducted since Anuzis said he was looking at the race. Strategic National, a Republican pollster run by Michigan consultant John Yob, conducted an automated survey of Michigan Republican voters earlier this week. The preliminary results, shared with Hotline On Call, showed Hoekstra way out in front, pulling more than 30 percent. Land trailed Hoekstra by a small margin, while businessman Tim Leuliette and Anuzis were well back in single digits.

Leuliette also appears to be eyeing the candidate vacuum. He said Tuesday that the race is "still something I'm considering, but there is nothing new to report at this time."

For now, Anuzis is jamming his calendar with meetings and phone calls. He'll also make his case to party insiders this weekend at the Michigan GOP's convention. His top priority is figuring out if he can raise the amount of money necessary to compete in a Republican primary, approximately $1 or $2 million, and general election, between $5 and $10 million.

While the "invisible primary" is going strong and pundits watch with bated breath for candidates to announce they will run for the White House, history shows it could still be awhile before candidates start officially jumping in the race - perhaps even until September.

The nodding and winking taking place now between potential candidates and the media is a delicate game for contenders. An early misstep could ruin a candidacy, while waiting too late to announce can make a candidate irrelevant.

And these early movements matter. Probable contenders are trying to build momentum while postponing official announcements as long as possible. This waiting period is not unusual in modern times, though the days of John F. Kennedy announcing in Jan. 1960 - the same year of the election -- are long gone.

As we learned in 2008, circumstances can move announcement dates earlier on the calendar. The 2008 cycle was the first presidential race since 1952 to lack a clearly defined successor to a presidency - it didn't feature an incumbent seeking a second term or a vice president running to move up. Along with accelerated primary schedule, the 2008 announcements became highly anticipated events. That led Hillary Clinton to announce her official run on Jan. 20, 2007 - which would have been last week in the 2012 cycle. Pres. Obama still held off for a bit, declaring his campaign on Feb. 2, 2007, on a bitter cold day in Springfield, Ill.

While Democrats were getting in the race, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was the first top tier Republican to toss his hat in the ring on the Republican side. He said he would run on a Jan. 25, 2007, episode of "Meet The Press." Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney waited until Feb. 13 to announce and eventual nominee Sen. John McCain (R) waited until April 25.

But when there has been an incumbent president running in recent cycles, challengers have waited far longer to get into the race. In 2003, potential candidates spent months posturing in the invisible primary to take on Pres. Bush. Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) officially jumped in on June 23, 2003, shortly before the MoveOn.org unofficial primary and six months from where we are in the current cycle. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (D), General Wesley Clark (D) and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards made their campaigns official just in time for the first Democratic debate on Sept. 26.

Missouri Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson is considering a run for the Senate, adding another name to the growing list of potential contenders to take on Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.).

According to sources familiar with Emerson's deliberations, she has been considering the race for two weeks and has made several phone calls to prominent Republicans across the state.

Emerson's decision is closely tied to former Sen. Jim Talent's (R) decision. Reports surfaced on Tuesday suggesting Talent will not seek a rematch with McCaskill, and sources close to Talent say he will formally make an announcement by Friday.

At that point, Emerson is likely to kick her considerations into high gear, said veteran Missouri Republican operative Steve Gordon, who serves as her political director.

"She will further explore it if Jim Talent is not running," he said.

Emerson joins an ever growing list of Republicans thinking of taking on former Treasurer Sarah Steelman in the Republican primary. Rep. Sam Graves (R) has said he is considering the race, as is 2010 congressional candidate and Tea Party favorite Ed Martin and 2011 Republican National Committee chair candidate Ann Wagner.

Emerson, like Graves, would bring congressional seniority to the race. She was first elected to the House in 1996 to replace her husband, Bill Emerson, who passed away. Emerson would count her sprawling southeastern district as her base and would make a strong appeal to the conservative rural areas of the state, which would be pivotal in a crowded GOP primary. 

Calls and emails to Emerson's office were not immediately returned.

Coming off delivering her response to the State of the Union Tuesday night, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) is planning to head to Iowa in March.

Bachmann will attend an event hosted by the Network of Iowa Christian Home Educators on March 23 in Des Moines, according to the group's website. The event is designed to put a "face" on homeschooling for Iowa state legislators.

The trip is the latest sign that Bachmann is seriously considering a run for president. Bachmann was just in Iowa last week for a fundraiser and her PAC contributed to several Iowa state legislators in the run up to Election Day last year.

The event also shows that Bachmann is weighing in on an issue that is quickly gaining traction in the potential 2012 GOP field: education. As Hotline On Call reported last week, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) have also sought to take hold of education reform.

Bachmann won't be the only potential 2012 contender at the event, though. Texas Rep. and 2008 contender Ron Paul (R) is also slated to appear. Other attendees include Iowa Rep. Steve King (R) and local conservative activist and 2010 gubernatorial contender Bob Vander Plaats (R). King, you'll recall, endorsed Bachmann in her short-lived bid for House Republican Conference Chair.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) -- all 2012 White House possibilities -- have been invited but are "not yet confirmed," according to the group.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the day's political news.

Obama Gets High Marks: Pres. Obama's State of the Union appears to be playing very well outside the Beltway, according to instant polling following the speech.

The address earned high marks in CNN's post speech poll. The Opinion Research survey of 475 viewers found that 52 percent had a very positive reaction to the speech while another 32 percent had a somewhat positive response.

The CNN numbers also show Obama's speech last night played better than his 2010 State of the Union, when 78 percent had either a very or somewhat positive response. Keep in mind, though, that State of the Union addresses rarely make a dent in a president's approval, even with the national attention focused on the speech.

More importantly for Obama is that he has continued his centrist pivot on several issues, including offering a five-year spending freeze and calling for medical malpractice reform. He called for more targeted spending by framing the spending as "investments." Despite his lack of specifics, more than two-thirds of voters said Obama's plan for the economy will succeed, while 57 percent said he will reduce the deficit. Another six in 10 said Obama will create or save jobs and increase cooperation between Democrats and Republicans.

It's that kind of optimism in the face of persistent 9.4 percent unemployment that's necessary for the president heading into his reelection campaign.

Don't Miss: National Journal's analysis of the State of the Union here. And here's a handy breakdown of which lines drew applause.

Dueling Connecticut Polls: Who is the early leader in the Connecticut Senate Democratic primary? Depends on which poll you believe. Rep. Chris Murphy (D), who announced last week that he's running for retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I) seat, released an internal poll from the Gotham Research Group on Tuesday that shows him leading former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz 40 percent to 31 percent among Democratic voters. The poll was conducted in early January, before he made his campaign official (and before Lieberman announced his retirement).

Those numbers contrast with a Bysiewicz poll that she released after getting in the race, which was conducted a month earlier (in December). That Bennett, Petts & Normington survey showed Bysiewicz leading Murphy 32 percent to 26 percent.

A trio of redistricting experts warned Tuesday to expect many court battles and plenty of uncertainty as congressional districts are redrawn in the next two years.

Speaking at a Tuesday morning panel, Kim Brace, the president of the bipartisan Election Data Services Inc., said in many states, the legislators drawing the maps are "newbies" that have never been through the process before and some will be tackling the complicated process unprepared.

"They're so new, they may not realize how far behind they are," he said. "Some states are not as prepared as they should be."

Brace warned that unprepared legislators could make major mistakes, and said during redistricting following the 1980 census legislators in one state submitted their plans just before the deadline only to later realize that they'd drawn the wrong number of districts.

The increasingly convoluted process, Brace added, has led to an rise in lawsuits challenging maps. "We had a lot of court involvement last time," he said.

Jeff Wice, a Democratic veteran of redistricting efforts, described redistricting as the "blood sport of politics." He pointed out that more than 30 states wound up in court during the last round of redistricting.

Wice speculated that two issues are likely to land in the Supreme Court: whether total population or the citizen voting age population should be used to draw the lines, and whether states can move prisoners back to their home addresses rather than count them as residents in the prisons they're living in.

The Illinois Supreme Court announced Tuesday that it will hear Rahm Emanuel's appeal of the lower court decision that barred him from the ballot in the Chicago mayoral election earlier this week.

The court will judge the case based on the briefs filed in the appellate case. No additional briefs will be accepted, and no oral arguments will be held.

If the court reverses the appellate court's ruling, Emanuel will remain in the race and reclaim his position as the heavy favorite to succeed Mayor Richard Daley. But if the court upholds the ruling, Emanuel's name will not appear on the ballot for the Feb. 21 election.

Earlier in the day Tuesday, the Supreme Court stayed the appellate court's decision, temporarily keeping Emanuel's name on the ballot while the court considers his appeal.

Opponents have charged that Emanuel is not eligible to run for mayor because he rented out his Chicago home while serving as Pres. Obama's chief of staff. Emanuel had won two previous residency rulings issued by the Chicago Board of Elections and a Cook County Judge.

The Illinois Supreme Court Tuesday granted a stay of the appellate court ruling that removed Rahm Emanuel from the ballot in the Chicago mayoral race, an order that puts Emanuel's name back on the ballot for the time being.

"The Board of Elections is directed that if any ballots are printed while this Court is considering this case, the ballots should include the name of petitioner Rahm Emanuel as a candidate for Mayor of the City of Chicago," the court stated.

The court is still considering whether to hear Emanuel's appeal of a lower court ruling on Monday that said he did not meet residency requirements necessary to be on the ballot. The court could still take the case and uphold the lower court's ruling  -- ending his mayoral hopes. If the court decides against hearing the case, the appellate court ruling would hold, and Emanuel's name would likely stay off the ballot.

The decision represents a momentary sigh of relief for the Emanuel campaign. Early voting in the race begins Jan. 31, and Chicago elections officials had indicated they planned to start printing ballots Tuesday.

Kevin Forde, Emanuel's attorney, said the order was good news for his client, but that Emanuel is far from in the clear.

"It's a partial victory on our motion," he said. "Is this a good sign? Sure. But do we know they're going to take the case? Absolutely not. Past that, I expect we'll have an order by tomorrow or the next day at the latest."

Opponents have charged that Emanuel is not eligible to run because he rented out his Chicago home while serving as President Obama's chief of staff. Emanuel had won two previous residency rulings issued by the Chicago Board of Elections and a Cook County Judge.

Missouri Republican Ed Martin hasn't declared whether or not he'll run for the Senate, but he's already got one prominent conservative leader in his corner: Phyllis Schlafly.

Schlafly is a conservative icon and the founder of the Eagle Forum, a PAC that promotes a social-conservative agenda. Schlafly is from Missouri and has influence among some socially-conservative activists.

On Tuesday, Schlafly wrote a letter to supporters saying she is encouraging Martin to challenge Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill (Mo.) next year.

"Ed is a proven conservative who can win this Senate seat and begin the process of reclaiming America," she wrote, according to a copy obtained by Hotline On Call. "Ed has a proven record of fighting for conservatives...We need Ed Martin in the U.S. Senate."

Martin told Hotline On Call last week that he is seriously considering the race. Currently, only former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman has jumped in, but several others -- including Martin, Rep. Sam Graves (R) and former Missouri GOP chair Ann Wagner are also eyeing the contest. Former Sen. Jim Talent (R) has also said he is thinking of running.

Schlafly's endorsement is a big get for Martin in the primary -- if he runs. Martin appealed to Tea Party groups during his unsuccessful 2010 campaign against Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan (D), and it appears that he has gotten off to an early start in courting their support so far in the Senate race.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is out with a new web ad to promote his book that is part political video and part trailer to a sequel to "Armageddon."

The video features awe-inspiring music and footage of many of America's heroes, from Martin Luther King Jr. to Ronald Reagan.

"The United States of America is the most successful nation the world has ever known," Pawlenty says at the beginning of the video, as the sun peaks through from behind clouds. "I think that's largely because we're the freest nation."

The video, which is intended to promote Pawlenty's new book "Courage To Stand" -- which, in turn, is intended to promote Pawlenty as a potential presidential candidate -- offers some dramatic political theater. By the end, it's unclear whether the viewer is supposed to view Pawlenty as a politician or superhero.

That being said, the video is very distinctive and will likely earn plenty of attention, which is what it was designed to do. The spot debuted in New Hampshire on Monday and Greta Van Susteren aired the video in full on her Fox News show Monday night.

"Valley Forge wasn't easy," Pawlenty says as the music crescendos. "Going to the moon wasn't easy. Settling the West wasn't easy. We are the American people. We have seen difficulties before and we always overcome it."

Check it out below.

One of the president's top advisers said President Obama believes former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel should qualify for the Chicago mayoral ballot.

Appearing on ABC's "Good Morning America," White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett said Pres. Obama believes Rahm meets the residency requirements necessary to appear on the ballot.

"I think that he believes that he is eligible, and that he believes that Rahm will pursue his appeal in the courts," said Jarrett, who, like Obama, is a Chicago native.

On Monday, a state appellate court ruled that Emanuel did not qualify for the ballot, overturning a previous ruling. The ruling threw a once predictable race -- Emanuel has been the clear frontrunner -- into disarray.

Emanuel has filed an appeal to the Illinois Supreme Court, but there is no guarantee they will hear the case. There are also significant time constraints for Emanuel; the state is slated to start printing ballots early next week.

Yes, you read that headline correctly. Nevada Republican Sharron Angle, who lost her 2010 Senate bid to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is traveling to Iowa on Wednesday.

Angle's trip comes out of the blue and doesn't mean she's running for the White House. But, as they say, no politician visits Iowa on a whim.

Ostensibly, the Des Moines Register reports that Angle will be attending the screening of a new film, "The Genesis Code," that is being hosted by the Iowa Christian Alliance Education Fund.

The film is about the tension between science and faith -- specifically creationism versus evolution. The trailer, below, opens by stating: "For centuries religious faith held sway as the ultimate truth and science feared religion. Then with Charles Darwin science began to challenge the truth of faith. But what if both are true."

The film features 2008 presidential contender and former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.).

Check out the full trailer below.

Conan O'Brien is excited that Democrats and Republicans plan to sit together during Pres. Obama's State of the Union address, "So if for no other reason, just tune in for the raw sexual tension."

Jon Stewart issues a challenge to find someone on Fox News alluding to their political opponents as using Nazi techniques -- in less time then it takes him to make a pie.

Today's Must See Moment - Fast forward to 1:05 to watch Stephen Colbert absorb former MSNBC host Keith Olbermann's power.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the day's political news.

Obama's Reelection Kicks Off: All eyes will be on Pres. Obama Tuesday night when he delivers his second State of the Union address (that first one in 2009 technically wasn't a State of the Union.)

A few things to watch for: This speech is the beginning of Obama's reelection campaign. We know that Obama will try to do what he does best -- hit broad themes. And we know that he'll mention issues like job creation, creating pro-business solutions to the recession, seeking bipartisan common ground -- all signs that Obama is positioning himself as more of a moderate for the last two years of his first term.

But will there be specific policy proposals and what issues will he weigh in on? Will he discuss Republican efforts to repeal his health care reform -- a highly divisive topic?

Will he discuss cap-and-trade -- as he did last year -- which ultimately failed in Congress and likely won't get anywhere this year? (The failure of that policy also appears to have forced Carol Browner to leave the administration.) The New York Times reports that Obama will mention energy policy.

One issue you can bet on Obama mentioning is the potential U.S.-Korea Free Trade agreement -- where Obama and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce appear to be on the same page.

New polling shows Obama is delivering his speech on his most solid footing in months. A CNN/Opinion Research survey found Obama holding a 55 percent approval rating. However, 54 percent disapprove of how is handling the economy, 55 percent disapprove how he has handled health care and 60 percent disapprove of his handling of the deficit.

Ryan's Rebuttal: House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) will also step into the limelight Tuesday night when he delivers the Republican response. Expectations are likely to be pretty low, considering most recent responses have been flubs (see: Jindal, Bobby and Kaine, Tim). And Ryan has also come under intense scrutiny from Democrats lately for his budget road map.

Monday's appellate court decision to remove Rahm Emanuel from the ballot in the Chicago mayoral election could turn what looked like an easy victory for Emanuel into a wide-open contest.

Emanuel plans to appeal the ruling to the Illinois Supreme Court and, if the court finds in his favor, he will remain the clear frontrunner to succeed longtime Mayor Richard Daley. A Chicago Tribune poll of likely voters conducted earlier this month showed Emanuel leading the race by a wide margin with the support of 44 percent of voters - outpacing his nearest rival, former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, by more than 20 points. The poll results - combined with his huge fundraising advantage -- led some to speculate that Emanuel might have an outside chance of garnering the more than 50 percent of the vote necessary to avoid a run-off.

But today's ruling has cast a cloud of uncertainty over the race.

"If he's off the ballot, then I think there is absolutely going to be a run-off," said Woods Bowman, a DePaul University political science professor and former Illinois state representative.

The two most likely candidates to reach the runoff -- if Emanuel is out of the race -- are Braun and former Chicago Public Schools President Gery Chico. Braun, who finished second in the Tribune poll with 21 percent, has been splitting the support of African-American voters with Emanuel. Each candidate won about 40 percent of black voters in that survey. If Emanuel is off the ballot, Braun should win the vast majority of support from the African-American community, according to local experts.

But Chico has even more to gain from today's ruling in the immediate future, said Chicago political consultant Eric Adelstein. Chico finished third overall in the Tribune poll and is the leading Hispanic candidate in the race. But Emanuel was carrying a plurality of the Hispanic vote in the survey with 30 percent, with the rest of that bloc divided between Chico and City Clerk Miguel del Valle, who most experts give little chance in the race.

"It's likely to be Braun and Chico," said Dick Simpson, a former alderman and the head of the political science department at the University of Illinois Chicago.

Tea Party backed candidate Jack Kimball's election as the next chairman of the New Hampshire GOP may be another sign the Tea Party is wielding an increasingly powerful influence in New Hampshire Republican circles, but it isn't likely to have a huge impact on the state's 2012 presidential primary, according to political observers and Republican strategists in the state.

"I don't know that it makes a great bit of difference," said University Of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala. "I think the new party chair is going to be constrained both by the nature of the job and the limits of his power, as far as how much he can influence the primary."

Kimball said after winning on Saturday that he will not endorse in the primary, but the nature of his influence - and what he does behind the scenes -- remains a variable at this point.

"If he tries to stick his nose into primary politics, there will be considerable pressure throughout the party to back off," said one New Hampshire Republican strategist who is deeply involved in the party.

On Saturday, Kimball -- a 2010 gubernatorial candidate who lost to eventual GOP nominee John Stephen by large margin -- beat Cheshire County GOP Chair Juliana Bergeron. Bergeron was backed by outgoing party chair John Sununu and other well-known Republicans.

Recently, conservatives have made notable strides in New Hampshire politics. The New Hampshire Republican Liberty Caucus, a conservative group, played a noteworthy role in moving the New Hampshire House to a conservative Republican majority. The caucus endorsed 107 of the 298 GOP members who now serve in the state House.

Don't expect former Virginia Sen. George Allen's (R) path to the Republican Senate nomination in 2012 to be an easy one.

Already, one Tea Party activist, Jamie Radtke, is in the race. Another contender who is planning on running to Allen's right, Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart (R) sounds like he isn't going to be scared off by Allen's entry into the contest on Monday.

That means that even if Democratic Sen. Jim Webb (Va.) opts against seeking reelection, the Virginia Senate race is likely to feature one of the nation's top Tea Party vs. establishment Republican primaries.

"I am very seriously considering the race," Stewart told Hotline On Call on Monday, before launching into several criticisms of Allen.

"Allen had a mediocre Senate record," he said. "He didn't accomplish much at all. I can't even think of a single major accomplishment by George Allen when he was in the Senate. He was just your standard George Bush-like Republican."

Several Virginia Republican operatives privately say that, while Allen is the favorite, he has yet to shore up all the support he needs to emerge from the primary - and are concerned that Allen won't be able to shake the infamous "macaca" moment from the 2006 race.

Allen's problem on the right was succinctly summed up by conservative blogger Erick Erickson on RedState.com Monday morning. Erickson, who is backing Radtke, wrote that Allen's voting record in the Senate "is out of step with most of the grassroots activists engaged in Republican primaries."

"There was," Erickson wrote, "the vote for the debt limit, the flip-flop into support of ethanol, gun control issues, the morning after pill controversy, and, perhaps most troublesome to tea party activists, the money he took from Freddie Mac concurrent to his refusing to push for government sponsored enterprise ('GSE') reform."

Radtke doesn't appear to be backing down from Allen, either. In a statement on Monday, Radtke welcomed Allen to the race then blasted him for supporting wasteful spending.

An appellate court in Chicago ruled Monday that former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel does not meet the residency requirements needed for eligibility to run in the Chicago mayoral election.

The ruling is a stunning turn of events in the race. Recent polling showed Emanuel to be the clear frontrunner. Emanuel had won two previous residency rulings issued by the Chicago Board of Elections and a Cook County Judge.

That ruling was appealed, however, and on Monday the appellate court ruled 2 to 1 against Emanuel, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

Emanuel is expected to appeal the decision to the Illinois Supreme Court, using Monday's dissent from Justice Bertina Lampkin -- the lone justice on the panel who sided with him.

Opponents have charged that Emanuel is not eligible to run because he rented out his Chicago home while serving as Pres. Obama's chief of staff.

Emanuel is running to replace longtime Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. His biggest competitor in the race so far has been former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, who has trailed Emanuel by a significant margin in recent polling.

Virginia Republican George Allen announced Monday that he'll seek his former Senate seat next year, setting up a potential rematch with Democratic Sen. Jim Webb.

"Today, I'm announcing my candidacy for the U.S. Senate," Allen said in his announcement video. "You know me as someone willing to fight for the people of Virginia. And I'd like the responsibility to fight for you again."

Allen also stressed what will be the focus of his campaign: cutting spending, creating jobs, balancing the budget, repealing Pres. Obama's health care reform and reducing energy costs.

Allen's decision to get the race was widely expected as he has taken several steps in the past few months to shore up support within the Virginia GOP.

Webb defeated Allen by less than 10,000 votes in 2006 when Democrats captured control of the Senate. Webb has provided few hints so far, however, about whether he'll run for reelection. Will Jenkins, a spokesman for Webb, said Monday that the Democrat will decide about the 2012 race by April.

"Right now, he remains focused on working with Senators from both parties to address the nation's greatest challenges -- as he has since his first day in office," Jenkins said. "He will address the 2012 election cycle in the first quarter of this year after careful consideration and discussion with his family."

Even if Webb passes on the race, Allen won't have an easy road back to the Senate. Candidates are already lining up to challenge the former governor on the Republican primary, and they are positioning themselves to Allen's right. Tea Party activist Jamie Radtke is already in the race, and Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart (R) is also seriously considering the contest.

Allen's reelection bid -- and career, at least temporarily -- was derailed in 2006 when a video caught him derisively using the word "macaca" to a Democratic opposition researcher in the crowd. Up to that point, Allen was leading in the polls and expected to win re-election. He was also being floated as a serious 2008 presidential contender.

Indeed, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee wasted no time reminding the public of the macaca incident - and his ties to the Republican establishment.

Despite those vulnerabilities, Allen starts off the race in a formidable position. Allen retains strong goodwill with nearly all of the state's Republican party establishment, and has the capability of raising significant money for a statewide campaign.

Newly-elected Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) put some distance between himself and the nascent Senate Tea Party Caucus on Monday, saying he doesn't see the need for it.

Rubio, dubbed the country's first Tea Party senator by the New York Times Magazine, has been closely watched since arriving in the Senate for hints as to where he'll position himself in the Republican caucus. Rubio capitalized on significant Tea Party support in his runaway win last year, but has since taken a more center-right route -- causing some to speculate he could be a top vice presidential contender for the 2012 Republican ticket.

During the 2010 campaign, in fact, Nevada Senate contender Sharron Angle (R), a favorite of the Tea Party, questioned Rubio's Tea Party credentials in private meeting that was secretly recorded. When asked about Rubio, Angle said "that's a stretch for me."

In an interview with the Shark Tank, a Florida politics website, Rubio said he hasn't planned on the joining the caucus. He didn't turn his back on Tea Party activists, however, adding that a Senate caucus is antithetical to what the Tea Party is all about.

"My concern is that politicians all of a sudden start co-opting the mantle of 'Tea Party,'" he said. "If all of a sudden being in the Tea Party is not something that is happening in Main Street, but rather something that's happening in Washington D.C., the 'Tea Party' all of a sudden becomes some sort of movement run by politicians...I think that the real power of the Tea Party comes from its ability to drive the debate and the issues from the grassroots up, as opposed to from the politicians down."

Rubio added that he fully plans to join the Conservative Steering Committee, which is run by Tea Party favorite Jim DeMint (R-S.C.).

The Senate Tea Party caucus is set to meet for the first time on Thursday. So far it only has three members: Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Mike Lee (R-Utah) and DeMint.

Once heavily targeted by Democrats and Republicans, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) starts the 2012 cycle as one of the Senate's safest Democratic incumbents with higher name identification and a stronger national presence following recent legislative victories and a string of national television appearances.

During the congressional lame duck session following Gillibrand's 28-point victory over former Rep. Joe DioGuardi (R) on Nov. 2, the freshman scored major victories with the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and the 9/11 responders' health care bill. She pushed the latter privately with Senate colleagues and publicly through television news appearances, including network and cable.

Since the start of the year, Gillibrand has upped her television schedule by appearing on programs ranging from "Meet The Press" to "The Daily Show" and even "The View." In the aftermath of the Tucson shootings, Gillibrand and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) appeared on every major network station along with CNN, MSNBC and Fox News to offer updates about Rep. Gabrielle Giffords's (D-Ariz.) condition.

The exposure has helped Gillibrand solidify her stature in New York, having just been appointed to the Senate two years ago. Already a good fundraiser, it has also allowed her to tap into major national Democratic donors - or "elites," as veteran New York Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf calls them.

"The elites pick it up without question because they're watching news shows," said Sheinkopf. However, he stressed that voters she courts in New York City are going to be more concerned with "people getting their due" from the government and kitchen-table issues than what's being discussed on "The Daily Show."

"So she's smartly finding things that real voters care about," said Sheinkopf, adding that the 9/11 responders law is "emotional" for voters. "She is running a smart campaign by not campaigning. She is running for a full term by being a full-time senator," he said.

Good Monday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the day's political news.

Et tu, Webb? Former Virginia Sen. and Gov. George Allen (R) will make it official on Monday: He'll run for his old Senate seat next year.

While Allen -- and recollections of his infamous "macaca" moment -- will dominate the news cycle, the attention will quickly turn to Sen. Jim Webb (D), who Allen lost to in 2006 and who has been noncommittal about whether he'll seek reelection next year. If Webb doesn't run, the Democratic bench is so thin that Allen will likely have an easy path back to the Senate in the general election -- particularly with Democratic National Committee Chair Tim Kaine saying he won't run.

Allen will face a challenge in the Republican primary. He got a break late last year when the Virginia GOP voted to hold a primary to choose their Senate nominee, instead of a vote at the convention -- which Allen preferred. However, Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chair Corey Stewart looks increasingly like he's going to run, and Tea Party activist Jamie Radtke has already said he's in -- and both represent a challenge from Allen's right.

Most likely in response to that, the New York Times reports that Allen will call himself "the original Tea Partier."

If Stewart gets in, this will be a great GOP primary to watch. It very well could be one of the marquee Tea Party v. Establishment showdowns of the 2012 cycle and it's in a state that is a top pick up opportunity for the GOP.

The GOP's Prebuttal: Those looking forward to seeing what Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan (R) would say in the Republican rebuttal to Pres. Obama's State of the Union address Tuesday night, got more than just a preview on Sunday when Republicans took to the morning talk shows. Led by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the Republicans gave the response early.

Their focus was entirely on spending -- a sure sign that the GOP is seeking to take control of the issue and the likely focus of what Ryan -- the new chairman of the Budget Committee -- will say in his rebuttal. And it looks like Republicans are posturing that they will hold raising the debt ceiling hostage until other significant budget cuts are made.

Here's Cantor on "Meet The Press": "Republicans are not going to vote for this increase in the debt limit unless there are serious spending cuts and reforms...That is just the way it is."

About That N.H. Straw Poll: There was plenty of ink over the weekend about former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) winning a straw poll of the New Hampshire GOP's committee members at their convention on Saturday with 35 percent of the vote -- an early sign that Romney is the early frontrunner in the Granite State.

There are a few other important parts of that convention to note. First is Tea Party-backed Jack Kimball becoming state chairman. Second is Texas Rep. and Tea Party favorite Ron Paul (R) coming in second in the straw poll with 11 percent.

Third -- and least noticed -- were the results of the straw poll's second question: What is the most important issue for the Republican presidential nominee to focus on? Nearly a majority -- 49 percent -- of the committee members say reducing the size of government -- a rallying cry of the Tea Party movement. The second place finisher -- reducing the size of the deficit and debt -- finished far behind with 15 percent.

Those three results suggest that there is a real opening for a budget cutting Republican, at least among the influential committee members (independents can also vote in the Republican primary). The last result also underlines the opportunity for an anti-establishment contender to make significant inroads into Romney's support.

Bill Maher thinks Pres. Obama should try to make House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) cry during the State of the Union by telling the story of "Old Yeller", "The state of our union is strong, but not so good for one special dog."

Jay Leno, on House Republicans voting to repeal 'Obama-care': "Now don't confuse that with the Republican health care plan, that's 'You're sick, we really don't care.'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:50, Obama and Vice Pres. Joe Biden celebrate their second year in the White House.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

-- The Tea Party is alive and well in New Hampshire. The Tea Party backed Jack Kimball upset establishment favorite Juliana Bergeron on Saturday to become chairman of the New Hampshire GOP. Bergeron was backed by outgoing Chair John Sununu. Kimball's win raises more questions than it answers. Chief among them: Will he support a Republican presidential contender in the New Hampshire primary? The chairman technically isn't supposed to endorse in a primary, but Kimball has said he wants New Hampshire Republicans to back a "good, strong conservative."

-- Also in New Hampshire, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) won a straw poll of the New Hampshire GOP committee members, taking 35 percent. But there was another Tea Party surprise there, as Texas Rep. Ron Paul (R) came in second with 11 percent. Romney was expected to win, as polling has shown him to be the early frontrunner in New Hampshire.

-- Outwardly, Romney is making moves that would seem to indicate he wants to run for president. So why would his team spurn a social conservative group in Iowa? Perhaps Romney will learn the lesson Hillary Clinton didn't - if you can't win Iowa, don't waste the resources. When will Romney's version of Mike Henry's Iowa memo leak?

-- If your bid for chairman of the Republican National Committee chairman was unsuccessful, maybe your consolation prize will be a Senate seat. We've heard buzz both Ann Wagner and Saul Anuzis are considering bids - or at least haven't shut the door - in Missouri and Michigan, respectively. Don't scoff; after Haley Barbour won the RNC race in 1993, two of his rivals, Spence Abraham and John Ashcroft, wound up winning seats in the upper chamber.

-- While Reince Priebus taking over the RNC chairmanship delighted many party donors, what Priebus has done in his first week at the job is driving them to open their wallets. Priebus raised $500,000 in one 24-hour period between Wednesday and Thursday and is assembling 15 of the RNC's top donors in Washington on Tuesday for a strategy session. Priebus also tapped three such donors to lead his "transition team," essentially giving the people he needs the most help from more reason to feel personally invested in the committee.

-- There are battleground states, then there is Wisconsin. No other state has received as much attention in political circles during the past week and a half. First, the state's GOP chair gets elected RNC chairman, then Pres. Obama announces he is heading to Wisconsin the day after he delivers his State of the Union address. And on Friday, Republicans revealed that Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) will deliver the Republican response to Obama's State of the Union on Tuesday. While the Chicago Bears look to avenge a late-season loss to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, Republicans are looking to reverse a 2008 double digit loss to Obama in the state.

Mitt Romney easily won an early 2012 presidential straw poll in New Hampshire Saturday, earning the support of 35 percent of Republicans attending the state party's annual meeting in Derry. His nearest competitor was Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, who earned 11 percent.

It was a significant but not unexpected victory for Romney, who qualifies for near favorite son status in the Granite State. He owns a home there and was governor of neighboring Massachusetts. The New Hampshire meeting also produced a strong showing of tea party strength: Candidates affiliated with the conservative insurgent movement captured about one-third of the votes, and New Hampshire Republicans elected a tea party candidate to head the party going into next year's first-in-the-nation primary, rejecting a candidate endorsed by the state GOP establishment.

The straw poll, conducted by WMUR-TV and ABC News, solidifies Romney's early front-runner status as the rest of the Republican field remains in flux. A number of potential candidates, including Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, have indicated their interest in recent days. Giuliani hints he wants to play the role of spoiler to Sarah Palin, who is undecided about a run; Gingrich is reportedly shopping for campaign office space in suburban Atlanta.

The nearly 500 Republicans at the meeting were asked to choose from a list of 20 names, including dark horses like Herman Cain and Donald Trump.

In the voting, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty placed third with 8 percent, Palin finished fourth with 7 percent, and Rep. Michele Bachmann, the leader of the Tea Party caucus in the House, finished with 5 percent. Former Sen. Rick Santorum, who has been quite visible in New Hampshire in recent months, finished a disappointing ninth place.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) has made no secret of his interest in a 2012 presidential bid, but now he seems to be edging closer to making it official.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution is reporting that Gingrich has made a pilgrimage to his home state in hopes of locking up support from Georgia's big-name politicians, and that he's shopping for campaign office space in the city's upscale Buckhead neighborhood.

Gingrich represented a suburban Atlanta district for 20 years, but more recently has been living in Virginia. Not all of the Peach State's politicos are ready to clamber aboard the Gingrich bandwagon, writes the AJC's Jim Galloway.

Take, for instance, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.), who served with Gingrich in the House. Galloway quotes him as saying: "Newt is my friend. He's been a mentor, in some respects . . . but it's a different world right now, and we've got to be sure that whoever the nominee is, that he can win in November."

Chambliss goes on to say that Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) has also talked to him about running for president. "I'm doing to keep my powder dry," Chambliss tells Galloway.

Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler says the former congressman plans a decision about creating an exploratory committee next month and one about entering the race in March, Galloway reports.

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. -- Lawmakers from 43 states and both parties convened Friday afternoon to figure out the ins and outs of the redistricting process. While the bipartisan convention begins Saturday, Friday was filled with closed-door planning sessions for the two parties for the impending zero-sum brawl.

Before they can play, though, the lawmakers need to learn the rules of the game. "The legislators have to have some understanding of this wicked confluence of extraordinary legislative standards and complex data," said Tim Storey of the National Conference of State Legislators, the group that organized the conference. "It's a terrifically complicated process."

Panels Saturday and Sunday include tutorials on the computer technology, gigabytes of data, and legal requirements and hurdles surrounding the law, especially the Voting Rights Act that protects minority voters from discrimination. Both Democrats and Republicans, many of them new to the complicated process since it typically occurs only every decade, will spend the days learning what they can do to help their parties -- and what they can't.

The panels can be a little uncomfortable, said Storey, because neither party wants to tip their hands with too specific a question and show the other one what they're planning to do. "They're pretty cautious - they're aware there are others in the room," he said.

Friday, though, was a time for frank discussion amongst allies. Tom Bonier, the chief operating officer of the Democratic-leaning National Committee for an Effective Congress, said his side is much more prepared than last time and has much more detailed information on voters' ideologies, issue concerns and even spending habits. "We're bringing a lot of data to the table," he said.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) will deliver her own rebuttal to Pres. Obama's State of the Union address Tuesday, a surprise - and perhaps unwelcome - announcement sure to invite contrasts to the official GOP response being given by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.).

Bachmann's speech will be sponsored by the Tea Party Express, the conservative group announced Friday, and will be live-streamed on its website. Bachmann, founder of the House Tea Party Caucus, received thousands of dollars from the group's PAC during her re-election bid last year.

Bachmann's decision to deliver an alternative rebuttal after being passed over for the official gig once again proves that Bachmann is interested in building a national profile -- and that her allies in the Tea Party are all too happy to oblige -- as she continues to fuel speculation about a possible presidential run with today's high-profile speech in Iowa.

But it also reflects the Tea Party's perpetual -- and seemingly insatiable -- desire to declare autonomy from the GOP establishment. Sponsoring Bachmann's alternative response demonstrates Tea Partiers' skepticism that a Republican official chosen by House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) -- two men who embody the GOP establishment -- would adequately address the objections and concerns of the party's conservative wing.

What Pres. Obama will say in his State of the Union next Tuesday and what he needs to achieve in the address will dominate the Sunday shows this week.

"This Week" will discuss whether the rhetoric in Washington needs to be toned down and whether bipartisanship stands a chance with three retiring senators, Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas). Moderator Christiane Amanpour will also take a behind the scenes look at what it's like to be an incoming freshman with Reps. Chris Gibson (R-N.Y.), Bobby Schilling (R-Ill.) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah).

Over on NBC, David Gregory will discuss the power shift in Washington and how it will play out for Obama in 2012 with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) on "Meet The Press." Gregory will also preview what is expected in the State of the Union speech with Bush administration adviser Karen Hughes and former Clinton Chief of Staff John Podesta.

"Face the Nation" will also discuss what should be included in Obama's speech with Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) while CNN's "State of the Union" discusses the war in Afghanistan with former Secretary of State Gen. Colin Powell. And Fox News hosts Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) to talk about what to expect in the Senate this session.

A high-stakes staring contest appears to be taking place in Missouri Republican circles over who -- and how many -- will run in the GOP primary to take on Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) next year.

Right in the middle of it is 2010 House contender and Tea Party favorite Ed Martin (R). And that's how he wants it.

"In the next couple of months, as people decide, I am in the same boat," he told Hotline On Call on Friday. "We are very seriously looking at it. I have made more than a couple dozen phone calls to contributors and grassroots leaders. And I have met with my Tea Party friends."

Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) is already in the race and, according to Republican sources, has taken aggressive steps to scare other potential candidates off. Earlier this week, though, longtime Rep. Sam Graves (R) said he is also considering the contest.

On top of that, most of the Missouri GOP -- including many big name donors -- are waiting to see if former Sen. Jim Talent (R) signs up for a rematch with McCaskill. Talent said last year his decision would come in January, but he hasn't announced anything yet.

While Talent would represent a more traditional establishment candidate, Steelman, Graves and Martin all appear to be angling for the support of Tea Party activists in the state. Steelman has made her intention to court them well known, and Graves told Hotline On Call this week that he'd also reach out to them if he runs. Martin relied heavily on St. Louis area Tea Party groups in his 2010 race against Rep. Russ Carnahan (D), which he lost by two points.

In spite of his Tea Party credentials, there has been speculation that Martin would stay out of the race if Talent ran because Talent's name identification and fundraising base would be hard to match. On Friday, Martin said that wasn't the case.

"I am beginning to see 2012 shaping up a lot like 2010," he said. "People want new faces and people who haven't served in office for years and years and years."

Martin, who first ran for public office last year, would bring some appealing characteristics to the race. First is his network of grassroots volunteers and his connection to Tea Party groups. That helped him raise $1.8 million in the last cycle, an impressive amount for a first time candidate in a Democratic area.

Second, Martin would count on one of the more Democratic areas of the state -- St. Louis and its surrounding counties -- as his base. If a Republican could cut into McCaskill's support there, he or she would have a straightforward path to victory. Last year, Martin out performed now Sen. Roy Blunt in St. Louis collar counties such as Jefferson and St. Genevieve.

Arizona Republicans say reports that Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' (D-Ariz.) 2010 challenger has been inquiring about special election procedures in the state are false.

According to a report in the subscription-only Arizona Capitol Reports, a representative from Jesse Kelly's (R) campaign contacted Arizona Republican Party legal counsel Lee Miller to ask about the process of filling the seat if Giffords couldn't serve.

Following the Jan. 8 shooting at Giffords' "Congress on Your Corner" event that critically wounded the congresswoman and killed six others, Giffords has made remarkable progress and was transferred from her Tucson hospital to a Houston rehabilitation facility today.

But Miller told The Hotline that he was mischaracterized in the story, and that he had no idea if that call was from someone in Kelly's campaign or someone seeking just general information.

"Not surprisingly, whenever there's a significant event in the life of a members of Congress, folks sort of want to know what the potential consequences of that might be. That question was asked," Miller said. "It was an assumption on the reporter's part that it was asked by a representative of Kelly's campaign."

"The day after the election, everybody's campaign sort of went out of business," Miller added. "At this point in time I don't know who's a Kelly representative."

Kelly spokesman John Ellinwood said that the call wasn't from anyone associated with Kelly.

"I don't know who he spoke with, but no one from the campaign contacted Lee Miller," said Ellinwood. "He's just not really thinking about [an election]. We're hoping that the victims, including Gabrielle Giffords, make a full recovery."

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's Redistricting Q&A, where we sit down with some of the most important players in the redistricting process. Last week, we featured Arturo Vargas, the executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, who discussed efforts to make sure Latinos are better represented in the next Congress.

We now turn to former New York Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds. Reynolds is a long time veteran of redistricting, having worked on it following every census since 1980. He is also particularly invested in the process this time around because, as chair of the Republican State Leadership Committee's REDMAP program, he worked last cycle to help Republicans make unprecedented gains in state legislatures - giving them more control over map drawing than they have had in decades.

Reynolds calls redistricting the "toughest form of politics," and, below, he takes a close look at where New York may cut two House seats and recommends that members start quickly developing relationships with their state legislatures so they have a seat at the table.

The Hotline: Let's start with your history of involvement with redistricting.

Tom Reynolds: I've been around redistricting at the local level and the state level for the '80s and '90s and now the 2000s. So I've seen it, I understand it. I consider it probably the toughest form of politics -- even for a New Yorker. It's tougher than labor politics; it's tougher than other New York. So when I look at redistricting across the country, I have an appreciation for what most states will go through.

Hotline: Why is it so tough?

TR: It's tough because you're either struggling to put together [the map] by shared power, as New York has been, or in the instance of states like the Northeast and upper Midwest that are losing population, it's musical chairs. If a state's gaining population, sometimes what was your district is now someplace else. We've seen rapid growth in Florida, Texas, and that also changes some impacts of what districts look like. For the most part, my experience has been as a legislative leader in every body I've served in, and so I've participated in the very tough process.

Hotline: What were some of the challenges Republicans faced in the '90s and 2000s?

The 2012 Republican presidential field has yet to officially materialize, save for a long-shot candidate who recently declared his bid. But likely candidates continue to traverse the country -- and the airwaves -- as perpetual intrigue surrounds them.

Already, though, we are beginning to see some overlap in the themes the potential White House contenders are underscoring and similarities between the larger events they react to. And it is worth noting when less visible issues crop up in the speeches of more than one potential candidate, because they provide insight into what could become the driving issues of the Republican primary.

Witness two major speeches last week by Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R). Each devoted considerable time to discussing education, and their respective decisions to do so may offer hints about the kinds of candidates they would be.

Moreover, whoever emerges from the primary as the Republican nominee will need to be prepared for a robust debate over education with Pres. Obama. A recent Pew poll found that education ranks third behind the economy and terrorism as the highest priority for voters. Obama will address education in his State of the Union speech, and will try to rewrite "No Child Left Behind" this year.

In his State of the State address, Daniels began by calling for a limit on state spending and outlined budgetary goals, but later pivoted to education.

"Some seek change in education on economic grounds, and they are right," he said. "To win and hold a family-supporting job, our kids will need to know much more than their parents did."

Daniels' decision to zero in on education came as no surprise to those who follow Indiana politics. "We all expected the governor to concentrate on education," said Brian Howey, the editor of Howey Politics Indiana.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) will give the Republican response to President Obama's State of the Union address, a senior GOP official told The Hotline on Friday.

The seven-term Republican, newly installed as the chairman of the House Budget Committee, is one of the most prominent deficit hawks in Congress. And he is close to House leadership as a third of the original "Young Guns" program, along with Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

Ryan has proposed long-term austerity measures in hopes of eliminating the deficit over the next half-century. His so-called "road map" was a concrete proposal that at once helped convince pundits that Republicans had ideas to back up pledges of spending cuts and gave Democrats an excuse to accuse the GOP of wanting to cut entitlement benefits.

When discussion turns to the open Senate seat race in North Dakota, the question isn't who is going to run - it's who isn't.

Since Sen. Kent Conrad (D) announced earlier this week that he won't seek re-election, a plethora of names has been floated as potential contenders. And coming of Sen. John Hoeven's double digit win last year, Republicans appear ready to line up for the pick up opportunity.

"All I can tell you," said North Dakota GOP Chair Stan Stein, "is the field is wide open."

The list of potential Republicans is extensive, but already some tiers are forming. At the top of the GOP wish list are Gov. Jack Dalrymple, former Gov. Ed Schafer newly elected Rep. Rick Berg.

Dalrymple, who took over the governorship when Hoeven won the Senate seat, is also considering running for a full term as governor -- a decision that will have a big impact on the race. Lt. Gov. Drew Wrigley (R), for example, is likely to run for whichever office Dalrymple decides against.

After those three, the list gets long very quickly. Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk has already jumped into the race and Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem is also eyeing it. So is Public Commissioners Chair Tony Clark, Tax Commissioner Cory Fong and state Treasurer Kelly Schmidt, who told Hotline On Call: "I definitely have not ruled it out."

There is also a long list of potential Democratic contenders, though most of them would likely start out as the underdog in the 2012 race. North Dakota Democratic Party Executive Director Joe Aronson acknowledged that Conrad retiring may make it tougher for Democrats to hold on to the race. "It puts us in a different situation," he said. But, he added, "we have a lot of talented people in our party."

Former Attorney General and 2000 Democratic gubernatorial candidate Heidi Heitkamp is considered a top potential candidate for Democrats, and her brother, Joel Heitkamp -- a former state senator who has a talk show -- has also been mentioned. Former state Sen. Tracy Potter, who ran and lost to Hoeven last year, could also run again. USDA Rural Development Director Jasper Schneider is another name people are talking about, as is state Sen. Mac Schneider and U.S Attorney Tim Purdon.

The problem for political news junkies is that there isn't likely to be much news on this front in the near future. Dalrymple is likely to take his time making up his mind and most of the others contenders are focused on North Dakota's state legislative session, which could last into May. For Berg, it would be politically foolish to start campaigning for the Senate the same month he was sworn into the House for the first time.

It's one of the most treasured spotlights -- and one of the most thankless tasks -- in American politics. For one night this year, a Republican will become the face of the party and offer a response to the president of the United States after he delivers the State of the Union address.

The spotlight is intense; despite the fact that the response gets a far smaller audience than the president's address, it's still watched by everyone in Washington, and by millions more around the country. It can highlight a rising star in the GOP, like last year's address in which Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell shone. Or it can be easily mocked for one outstanding feature; think of the parodies of Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal's performance, or of then-Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine's seemingly independent eyebrow.

The honor comes with a requirement not unlike the Hippocratic oath: Above all, just don't screw up.

Here's what we know so far, according to our own reporting:

-- House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who have the final say in the matter, are not going to pick themselves. But they have made the pick, and, a spokesman joked to us yesterday, they will announce their choice on a day that ends in "y." Thanks for narrowing it down, guys.

-- Sen. Marco Rubio's (R-Fla.) not the one. His spokesman said the freshman will not give the address.

-- Also out: South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R). A source in Haley's office says she hasn't been asked.

But we still have four of our top six most-likely picks on the board. If you like to bet, you might want to put your money on Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez (R), Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R). For a complete roster and our in-house odds, click here.

The White House dinner for Chinese President Hu Jintao was a success, but Conan O'Brien thinks Hu didn't enjoy his dessert, "At the end of the meal, Jintao opened a fortune cookie that said, 'You will lend us another trillion dollars.'"

Jon Stewart on the U.S. owing China almost a trillion dollars: "Quick American turn off the lights! Maybe he'll think we're not home."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:40, Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit hits the big screen.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Friday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup: Here's our take on the day's political news.

All Eyes On Romney: Saturday's New Hampshire straw poll will provide an early test for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) - the early frontrunner in the state so far.

Just less than 500 New Hampshire GOP committee members -- key endorsers in the 2012 GOP primary -- will vote in the straw poll at their convention in Derry, where they will also elect a new chair. The poll is sponsored by WMUR and ABC News.

The poll will set early expectations for the primary, tentatively scheduled for Feb. 14, 2012. Romney earned 39 percent in a poll earlier this month, a good measuring stick for his performance this time around.

Straw poll voters told Hotline On Call that there will be a large field of candidates to choose from on the ballot -- including some who have said they won't run for president, like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R).

The Establishment Candidate: The poll also comes on the heels of this must read Boston Globe story on how Romney has avoided reaching out to Tea Party activists. From the Globe: "As the former Massachusetts governor lays the groundwork for a possible second presidential run, he has largely shunned Tea Party activists in key primary states, including the state he must win if he enters the race, New Hampshire. Thus far, Romney is on track to present himself as the establishment candidate -- a responsible, mainstream Republican leader with the necessary financial resources and credentials to beat President Obama."

The story lays out the framework for what will be one of the key dynamics in the 2012 primary race: Establishment versus the Tea Party. At this point, Romney -- with his personal wealth, corporate background, front runner status and defense of the bank bailouts -- appears to be the establishment candidate personified. And Republicans, in past presidential nominating battles, have tended to pick the establishment candidate in waiting (see: George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996, John McCain in 2008).

Obama's Moves To The Middle: Obama is, rather rapidly, establishing the groundwork for his 2012 reelection campaign.

On the logistical side, we learned Thursday that he is shutting down the White House's political affairs shop and moving personnel to Chicago to set up his campaign, which will be run by Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina.

On the substantive side, Obama is targeting the center with a renewed focus on job creation and appealing to the business community. The latest move is naming General Electorate CEO Jeff Immelt as the chair of the newly created Council on Jobs and Competitiveness. The announcement is officially set for Friday. (The new council replaces the Economic Recovery Advisory Board, which was led by Paul Volcker.)

Immelt is a Republican, and the move comes after Obama named J.P. Morgan Chase executive Bill Daley as his next chief of staff. Vice Pres. Joe Biden followed that up by hiring Bruce Reed, another long time centrist from the Clinton era, as his chief of staff.

The moves appear to be working, as recent polls have shown a bump in Obama's approval rating, Charlie Cook writes in his latest column. Cook: "Obama's move toward the center is the necessary first step in his effort to get re-elected, but it isn't the only step. Talk with key business leaders and economists, and they will tell you that the government can do little to fix the housing crisis right now. Improvement will take a slow and painful deleveraging process to unwind millions of underwater mortgages that resulted from imprudent building, lending, and borrowing."

Another independent in Rhode Island? First term Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) may have his first challenger for 2012: Independent Alan Hassenfeld.

Hassenfeld told the AP that he is considering the race. The former CEO of Hasbro Inc., a large toy manufacturer, Hassenfeld would bring a few things to the table -- including his large check book.

It's worth recalling that Rhode Island elected a prominent independent, former Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I), for governor last year. Hassenfeld has supported the Moderate Party of Rhode Island in the past, and he could represent the nascent group's most legitimate top of the ticket contender.

Meanwhile, 2010 gubernatorial contender John Robitaille, told WBRU he is considering running for governor again in 2014 and appears likely to pass on the Senate race.

Fresh off announcing he'll run for retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I) seat, Connecticut Rep. Chris Murphy (D) said Thursday afternoon that his decision had not been contingent on Lieberman retiring. 

On a conference call with reporters, Murphy said he had spent months mulling the race, and had decided to run over the past few weeks -- and that his campaign announcement video was shot this weekend, prior to Lieberman's announcement. 

"I think that it's likely that I would have run in either circumstance," he said. 

As for why he chose to make his announcement so soon after Lieberman's, "Today's the first day that this is an open seat," Murphy said. "I saw no reason to waste any time. With the seat coming open it seemed appropriate to move forward with my candidacy. I don't really believe in the exercise of political theater. If I'm going to do something, I feel like I should be clear about my intentions."

Murphy said the decision to enter the race had not been easy, but he based it not on who else would be running, but where he would have maximum impact. "My heart is in the 5th District," he said, "But the question for me was really where my voice could be the strongest for the things that the people of Connecticut care about."

He said that he might have preferred to wait to make the announcement, but was confronted with the realities of a modern Senate campaign's scope: To raise the money needed to compete statewide in Connecticut, he needed to begin as soon as possible. He estimated he'd have to raise at least $10 million to run a competitive campaign.

"The challenge of raising $10 million over the course of two years means that you have to start building that organization early," he said. "I don't have personal or family wealth. This campaign will be funded by thousands of donations, many of them 5 and 10 dollars a piece, from across this state." 

Michigan Democratic Rep. John Dingell, the longest serving member of the House, said Thursday that he'll seek another term next year.

"It's the greatest job in the world," Dingell told the Detroit News. "I can help people and ... make things better, and I represent some of the finest people on earth. The people in southeast Michigan are nothing short of wonderful."

Dingell, 84, was first elected to the House in 1955 in a special election after his father, who previously held the seat, passed away. In February of 2009, he became the longest-ever serving member of the House. In his next term, he'll surpass former West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd (D) as the longest serving member of Congress in history.

Dingell, who has previously served as chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, also commented on the possibility that his district composition could change significantly since Republicans have complete control of the redistricting process in Michigan.

"I've had three bad redistrictings, and I've survived every one of them despite predictions to the contrary," he said.

In 2010, Dingell faced a challenge from Tea Party favorite Rob Steele (R). That race turned very negative, Dingell said, as both he and his wife received death threats.

"We had a very, very nasty campaign against us in which I got death threats, my wife got death threats," Dingell said. "I don't mind them for me -- I've had them for years...But what does bother me is when they threaten my wife."

Dingell went on to win that race comfortably by nearly 17 points.

President Obama's reelection campaign has kicked off: Virtually all White House political functions will be transferred to the Democratic National Committee and to the campaign itself, which will be run by Jim Messina, the president's deputy chief of staff, and operate out of an as-yet-to-be-determined office building in Chicago.

Among the staff moves confirmed today: White House social secretary Julianna Smoot, one of Obama's earliest fundraisers, will lead the reelection's finance effort as a deputy campaign manager. Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, who ran the campaign's targeting team in the 2008 election and now serves as executive director at the DNC, will oversee field and politics as another deputy manager. White House political director Patrick Gaspard will become the DNC's executive director, and his shop -- eight staff members in total -- will be transferred over to the party committee. The moves were first reported by The New York Times.

DNC Chairman Tim Kaine wrote in an e-mail to party members today that Gaspard "understands the importance of grassroots politics and team building. He is someone with whom I have worked closely and I look forward to working with him even more closely at the DNC."

But first things first.

"They really have to do nothing but raise money this year," one of Obama's top fundraisers said today. The fundraiser, who has spoken with Messina this week, said that Obama intends to raise at least as much money as he did for the 2008 general election, and intends to secure commitments from donors to raise at least $250 million by the beginning of 2012.

Officials have also been sending quiet signals that they would not object to the formation of an independent expenditure group because they fear that Republicans will exploit campaign finance laws to attack the president from outside the boundaries of a formal campaign. That's a change from 2008, when David Plouffe froze out interest groups in order to concentrate money and messaging in the campaign.

If Missouri Republican Rep. Sam Graves ends up running for the Senate, he'll actively seek out the support of Tea Party activists in the Show Me State, he said Thursday.

The remarks foreshadow a potential show down with former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R), who is already in the race and plans to appeal to the Tea Party segment of the Missouri GOP.

Graves told Hotline On Call that is "absolutely" considering a run against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and, if he does pull the trigger, he believes his credentials will appeal to Tea Partiers.

"I'm one of the very few members of Congress who has voted against every one of these bailout packages and stimulus packages, whether it was Pres. Bush, whether it was Pres. Obama, and I disagree with them, and that's exactly one of the things that the tea party movement stands for," he said.

Graves only recently came on the radar screen as a potential Senate contender and has caught some in the Republican Party by surprise. His consideration of the race appears to have developed as former Sen. Jim Talent (R), who lost to McCaskill in 2006, has delayed his decision on whether he is going to run. Another Republican, 2010 congressional contender Ed Martin is also taking a close look at the race.

Asked about Steelman courting Tea Party activists in Missouri, Graves said it doesn't concern him.

"My record stands on its own and the Tea Party movement is very important, it's part of the process, and it's kept America moving in the right direction," he said. "We've got to turn spending around in this country, and that's the bottom line.

One of the many results of Sens. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Joe Lieberman's (I-Conn.) impending retirements is that both states now have a newly elected senator who will, in two years, be that state's senior senator.

Because North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd (D) also retired, last year -- and also, oddly enough, made their announcements near-simultaneously -- the two states each have a senator mere weeks into their tenure. Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and John Hoeven (R-N.D.) are now slated to go from freshmen to seniors in two years flat.

In the Senate, where seniority is of paramount importance, what are the implications of the suddenly junior delegation for the states they represent? And which state ends up worse off?

Though both Lieberman and Conrad (who've been in the Senate since 1988 and 1986, respectively) chair committees, Rutgers University Political Science Prof. Ross Baker thought the loss of Lieberman at the helm of the Homeland Security Committee would be more directly detrimental to Connecticut because he was able to directly influence industry in the state from his post.

"Perhaps in the case of Conrad and the Budget Committee, it probably isn't as dramatic as losing Lieberman on Homeland Security," said Baker, noting that Lieberman is also a senior member of the Armed Services Committee. "That's a problem. And I'm sure that Blumenthal and whoever replaces Joe Lieberman will be very aggressive in their protection of the electric boat division and all of the defense industries in Connecticut. But clearly to be the chairman of the committee, and high in seniority on another committee, really does put you in a better position to protect particularly these aerospace industries and other defense industries."

Vanderbilt Political Science Prof. Bruce Oppenheimer disagreed, arguing that North Dakota will be harder hit because Conrad is the third member of "Team North Dakota" -- once comprised of Conrad, Dorgan, and former Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D), who lost his seat last year -- and because a small state has to depend more heavily on seniority.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) invoked President Obama's African-American ancestry while discussing the president's views on the genesis of human life and subsequent support of abortion rights.

In an interview this week with CNS News, Santorum said: "I find it almost remarkable for a black man to say, 'No, we're going to decide who are people and who are not people" when discussing abortion rights.

Santorum took heat in his 2006 re-election bid for making a string of controversial remarks about gender roles and hot-button social issues like gay marriage and abortion.

This post was updated at 2:56 p.m.

Connecticut Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy will announce Thursday that he'll seek the Senate seat vacated by Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman.

Murphy has long been considered a potential candidate in the Connecticut Senate race and Lieberman's retirement announcement this week accelerated Murphy's timetable.

"I only take this step because I believe I can be an even stronger voice for change in the United States Senate," Murphy said in a statement. "I'm thankful for all the encouragement I have received to take this step, from family, friends, and people across the state."

Murphy also made a video announcement on his website and hosted an event Thursday evening in Cheshire, Conn.

Long considered a rising star in Connecticut politics, Murphy's decision puts him on a collision course with former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D). Bysiewicz announced earlier this week that she would run for the Lieberman's seat.

Bysiewicz and Murphy are both known for their aggressive style, so the Democratic primary promises to be heated.

Murphy was elected to the House in the Democratic wave of 2006, defeating Republican congresswoman Nancy Johnson by a double-digit margin. He has garnered the support of liberals with a largely party-line voting record in the House and has put together a string of impressive wins, earning 60 percent of the vote in his first re-election win and winning by more than 8 percent last year despite a national Republican atmosphere.

Here's the most telling statistic from the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll: More voters view President Obama as a moderate and fewer view him as a liberal than at any point in his presidency -- or even his presidential campaign.

Exactly 40 percent of respondents said they view Obama as a moderate - a ten-point spike from when the question was asked this time last year, and even three points higher than when he was first inaugurated in January of 2009.

The number of respondents who believe he's liberal has correspondingly declined as well. The survey shows 45 percent view him as either "very liberal" or "somewhat liberal" - four points lower than his previous low-water mark in January 2009, when 49 percent viewed him as liberal.

All this comes before Obama delivers his State of the Union address next week designed to recalibrate his presidency, and barely after new staff designed to reorient the president on a more moderate path have taken their places in the White House.

Obama's bounce could be a result of his well-received memorial address in Tucson last week, but this poll question is an ideological one - not one based on his favorability or likability. It suggests that, in near-record time, Obama has restored his standing, with the opportunity to move to the middle in the next two years to improve his numbers further.

It could be a short-lived moment, thanks to the country's sour economy and the continued unpopularity of his signature health care law. But at the same time, his improved standing is remarkable for a president dealing with 9.4 percent unemployment and coming off an election where his party was overwhelmingly rebuked at the ballot.

Insiders in both parties give Republicans relatively high marks for the GOP transition to power in the House of Representatives, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) earned unusual bipartisan credit for deftly managing his new majority and the tone he set. And while some also criticized him for not attending the Tucson memorial for the victims in the Arizona shooting, his personal style overall won praise.

"Boehner kept it real, got his troops in line, calmly spoke to everyday people about being a 'regular guy with a big job,' and put forth some symbolically effective measures," said a Democratic Insider. "Even the tears were appealing to a lot of people."

Republicans also focused on the contrast between Boehner's transition and those of two of his predecessors, Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.). "Unlike the start of the Gingrich and Pelosi eras, John Boehner has made the start of the new session of Congress about the success of the institution rather than a personal coronation," said a GOP Insider. Echoed another, "Boehner and [Majority Leader Eric] Cantor (R-Va.) avoid overexposure; no one hates them--sharp contrast to Gingrich and company."

The marks were not dissimilar to those that Democrats earned for their transition after they took over the House and the Senate following the 2006 midterm elections. At that time Democratic Insiders gave the Democratic transition an average grade of 'B' and Republican Insiders gave it an average grade of 'C+.' Ironically, back in January 2007, Republican Insiders criticized Democrats for not allowing congressional Republicans the chance to offer alternatives on the initial legislation that the new Democratic majority moved. That was also a complaint from Democratic Insiders this week on the House Republican move to repeal healthcare reform. What goes around comes around.

Good Thursday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the day's political news.

Mapping Missouri: Missouri Republicans are no longer willing, it appears, to wait on former Sen. Jim Talent (R) to make up his mind about whether he'll run for the Senate against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) next year.

On Wednesday, Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.) indicated that he is actively looking at the race. "I certainly wouldn't want to close the door on it," he told The Hill. "It's something that I look at and kind of evaluate and we'll see what happens...There's a great opportunity to take back that Senate seat."

Graves' political team also spent Wednesday working the phones and seeing if a campaign is possible. Graves had been off the radar screen as a potential candidate, but he would bring a lot to the table -- including a strong knowledge of federal issues and top political track record, winning re-election even in down Republican years. He also opposed TARP in 2008 -- a key vote in conservative circles.

Another sign that Graves is taking this very seriously: His top political advisor, Jeff Roe, ran current Republican Senate contender Sarah Steelman's 2008 gubernatorial campaign.

Graves isn't the the only Republican who appears to moving closer to a run. Former congressional contender Ed Martin, who lost to Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) last year, appears to be seriously looking at the race. Martin was in the Missouri state Capitol on Wednesday meeting with state legislators and trying to gather support, according to sources who saw him there.

What this all means: Regardless of whether Talent ultimately jumps into the race or not, Steelman is not going to have a free ride to the general election.

What Can Brown Do For You: One of the most vulnerable Democratic senators in 2012, Ohio's Sherrod Brown, starts the 2012 cycle in surprisingly good shape, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday.

A plurality -- 45 percent -- say Brown should be re-elected and he has a 45 percent approval rating. He also beats an unnamed Republican 45 percent to 33 percent.

Those numbers won't scare away prospective GOP challengers from looking at the race, but they are better than you'd expect given the large gains Republicans made in Ohio last year. Brown will undoubtedly be a top target for Republicans, but he appears to have a solid base to build on, as fully 84 percent of Democrats said they'll support him for re-election.

Also notable, Pres. Obama's approval rating has seen a boost in the Buckeye State. Forty-nine percent of Ohioans now approve of the president's performance, while 46 percent disapprove. That last time Quinnipiac surveyed registered voters -- back in June -- Obama's approval was upside down as 49 percent disapproved of his performance.

(Sidenote: The poll also found that a plurality -- 37 percent -- are undecided on whether House Speaker John Boehner's (R-Ohio) penchant for crying is a sign of strength rather than weakness. Make what you will out of that.)

Parsing The Healthcare Vote: The biggest question following Wednesday night's vote on repealing health care was, has anything changed? There were no surprises, as Republicans uniformly backed the measure and the three Democrats who had said they would support the effort weeks ago did so. They were North Carolina's Mike McIntyre, Arkansas' Mike Ross and Oklahoma's Dan Boren.

What was striking was how stridently Ross -- a leading, and one of the few remaining, Blue Dogs -- went after the legislation after the vote. "An overwhelming majority of my constituents continue to oppose this health care reform law and I believe we should repeal it, start over and listen to the majority of the American people -- not the special interests and party leaders in Washington," Ross said in a statement.

That raises the question of other Blue Dogs (and moderate Democrats) who opposed Obama's health care reform in the first place, but now opposed repeal. Members like Reps. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), Larry Kissell (D-N.C.), John Barrow (D-Ga.), and Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) will undoubtedly be challenged by Republicans why they voted against Obama's health care plan before supporting it (in the repeal vote).

Stephen Colbert is disappointed he didn't get an invitation to the state dinner held in honor of Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the U.S, "I know for a fact there was an empty seat because House Speaker John Boehner turned down his invitation and I could easily have passed for him. I have a great Boehner costume."

Jimmy Kimmel, on Hu's visit: "I'm all for making nice with the Chinese, but when is somebody going to hold President Hu responsible for letting the dogs out?"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:55 to see Colbert's Boehner costume.

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump.

Amid a rash of retirements from the U.S. Senate, Florida's Bill Nelson (D) is seeking another term.

Nelson told reporters that he's running at the annual legislative meeting sponsored by the Associated Press in Tallahassee on Wednesday.

Republicans are already starting to line up against the Orlando-area Democrat, including U.S. Rep. Connie Mack and Senate President Mike Haridopolos. George LeMieux (R), who filled the seat temporarily when Mel Martinez (R) stepped down early, is also expected to jump in.

A competitive Republican challenge to Nelson could help the party mobilize voters in the 2012 presidential election. Nelson - the lone Democrat elected statewide in the battleground state -- hasn't faced a strong rival since his election to the Senate in 2000.

Nelson has served in public office since his election to the Florida Legislature in 1972 and largely stuck to mainstream causes, such as advocating funding for the space program and opposing offshore oil drilling.

"I think he's more vulnerable in a primary than he is in a general,'' said Miami-based political consultant Derek Newton. "He comes from a great line of political moderates in Florida. He's no lefty, so he'd be tough to beat in a general election.''

Former Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) places blame directly on Sarah Palin and Republicans for last week's deadly Arizona shooting in an email to supporters on Wednesday.

Grayson, a one-term Democrat who was ousted by Rep. Daniel Webster (R) by 18 points in November, is widely expected to run again in 2012. And while the note isn't an explicit appeal for money, there is a "contribute" link at the bottom of the message.

"When I opened my web browser yesterday, at yahoo.com, there was Sarah Palin, smiling at me," Grayson writes. "'Oh God,' I said to myself, 'what has she done now."

Reacting to Palin's defense of her controversial video on the Ariz. massacre and use of the phrase "blood libel," Grayson writes: "That's interesting, I thought. What else might Palin be defending? Cannibalism, maybe?

Grayson goes on to offer his own summary of Palin's appearance on Sean Hannity's Fox News show: "Palin: I am so misunderstood. Hannity: I am so misunderstood. Palin: I am so misunderstood."

Grayson says not only was Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz), who was critically wounded in the shooting at her "Congress On Your Corner" event, wary of Palin's rhetoric, but that the former GOP vice presidential nominee used the same "crossfire" symbol against him.

"Even before I heard earlier Palin's whining about 'misguided finger-pointing' and 'irresponsible statements from people who are apportioning blame,' I thought about this: Palin came to my district, and told her people to 'take me out.' Palin told people again and again, 'don't retreat, reload.'"

Facing the likelihood of a daunting re-election campaign, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) said Wednesday that he'll retire from the Senate after serving four terms.

Lieberman, speaking to supporters in Stamford, placed himself in the tradition of Kennedy Democrats and decried how deeply divided politics has become. He also implied that there is no long a place for his independent brand of politics.

"The politics of President Kennedy -- service to country, support of civil rights and social justice, pro-growth economic and tax policies, and a strong national defense -- are still my politics, and they don't fit neatly into today's partisan political boxes any more either," Lieberman said.

The former vice presidential nominee went on to say the he has always tried to put serving his constituents above party labels.

"I have not always fit comfortably into conventional political boxes, maybe you've noticed that -- Democrat or Republican, liberal or conservative," he said. "I have always thought that my first responsibility is not to serve a political party but to serve my constituents, my state, and my country, and then to work across party lines to make sure good things get done for them."

Lieberman's willingness to buck the Democratic Party, particularly on foreign policy issues, led to him begin 2012 as one of the most vulnerable senators up for re-election. Unlike in 2006 when he lost the Democratic primary but went on to win the general as an independent, Lieberman was likely to face credible Republican and Democratic challengers, making it more difficult to win without major-party backing again.

"Sen. Lieberman's big problem is that he doesn't have a lot of friends left," said Jim Barnett, a Republican strategist who has worked extensively in Connecticut. "Republicans are going to invest in their nominee and it's going to be a much more significant competitor than he had in 2006. And Democrats are very eager to pay him back for perceived sin of the past."

"If there was a path to victory for Lieberman," Barnett added, "it was a very narrow one."

Nearly one year before the first 2012 primary is set to occur, a new straw poll of the potential Republican contenders will be held on Saturday in New Hampshire.

WMUR-TV is partnering with ABC News to conduct a straw poll on Jan. 22 at the state GOP's convention when it elects its new chair. The attendees will be the state party's nearly 493 committee members, which include many of the most important endorsements for the 2012 presidential contenders.

The poll will provide an early barometer for the 2012 field. So far, there has been limited polling of the 2012 field in the Granite State. The few that have surfaced have shown Mitt Romney, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, with a considerable lead over the field.

The New Hampshire presidential primary is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 14 next year.

When House Republicans bring their legislation that would repeal Pres. Obama's health care reform to a vote Wednesday, they will be putting several Democrats in a bind.

The vote is expected to breakdown along partisan lines, as only a trio of Democrats have said they will join Republicans and vote for repeal. And it appears highly unlikely that any Republicans will join the Democrats in opposition to the measure.

Politically, the vote could spell trouble for Democrats who narrowly won their re-election bids last year and who represent conservative districts -- such as Reps. Heath Shuler (N.C.), John Barrow (Ga.), Ben Chandler (Ky.) and Jim Matheson (Utah), who has been mentioned as a potential 2012 Senate contender.

The vote may be particularly risky politically for Democrats who may see their district become more conservative after redistricting in the next two years. That is certainly the case for Barrow, Rep. Tim Holden (D-Pa.), Shuler and fellow North Carolina Rep. Larry Kissell (D).

Here is a breakdown of how the 13 Democrats who opposed health care reform last Congress and who survived re-election last year have said they will vote on the Republicans' repeal legislation.

They are:

Jason Altmire (Pa.)
Dan Boren (Okla.)
John Barrow (Ga.)
Ben Chandler (Ky.)
Tim Holden (Pa.)
Larry Kissell (N.C.)
Dan Lipinski (Ill.)
Stephen Lynch (Mass.)
Jim Matheson (Utah)
Mike McIntyre (N.C.)
Collin Peterson (Minn.)
Mike Ross (Ark.)
Heath Shuler (N.C.)

Most of these Democrats are saying they won't back the Republican repeal effort. Lynch's spokeswoman said he "does not support the Republican effort to go back to the old broken system." Shuler went a step farther, calling repealing health care reform "immoral" in statement.

Three Democrats -- McIntyre, Boren and Ross -- however, have indicated they will vote to repeal. And four Democrats voted earlier this month to allow the repeal legislation to be brought to the House floor: Boren, Kissell, McIntyre and Ross.

Below is a complete breakdown of how these 13 members have said they plan to vote. .

Against Repeal: 8

Jason Altmire
Tim Holden (National Journal reporting)
Daniel Lipinski
Stephen Lynch (statement)
Larry Kissell
Jim Matheson (National Journal reporting)
Collin Peterson
Heath Shuler (statement)

For Repeal: 3

Dan Boren
Mike McIntyre
Mike Ross

Meghan McCarthy contributed reporting.

Even though Republicans made historic gains at the state level in 2010 that gave them unprecedented control over redistricting, they are currently lacking a unifying organization to lead the process.

And the absence of such a group is starting to cause alarm in Republican circles.

One such Republican is former NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds. Reynolds is particularly invested in redistricting because he helped spearhead the GOP's efforts in 2010 that netted Republicans nearly 700 new seats in statehouses across the country at the Republican State Leadership Committee. Reynolds directly oversaw the RSLC's REDMAP program, the group's primary fundraising arm.

Despite those gains, though, Reynolds said the GOP is in something of holding pattern without an organization dedicated to raising money and focused on redistricting.

"I've been surprised that I didn't see the party yearning for some sort of outside effort to get the map-making up and going," Reynolds told Hotline On Call. "Normally instead of having the party pay for that, someone on the outside would take that initiative and I haven't seen that leadership."

The big reason why parties turn to outside groups for redistricting efforts -- and especially legal issues that arise from redistricting -- has to do with campaign finance rules. Parties cannot use soft money -- unlimited contributions from corporate sources-- to pay for their redistricting efforts. Outside groups can and a nationwide redistricting effort is likely to run about $20 million, according to Democrats and Republicans who have been involved in the process previously.

It looked like Republicans had such an organization when former Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and veteran Republican strategist Charlie Black set up Making America's Promise Secure (or MAPS) in 2009. That group is virtually non-existent now, according to Republicans involved in the redistricting effort, including Reynolds. (Efforts to reach MAPS were unsuccessful.)

"There needs to be some other entity to come forward," Reynolds said.

Another Republican deeply involved in redistricting at the state level described the GOP's organization toward redistricting in one word: "Chaos."

Now, it isn't as if Republicans are completely rudderless as the redistricting process looms in the near future. Georgia Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R) is heading up the National Republican Congressional Committee's efforts and is well respected on the issue. Veteran map-drawer Tom Hofeller is also currently based in the Republican National Committee.

AFL-CIO Pres. Richard Trumka said Wednesday that America has been lost for a decade due to questionable political choices and has fallen behind countries like China and Germany.

Speaking at the National Press Club, the president of the nation's largest labor union argued the days of doing the same old thing in Washington must end for the United States to get back on track as a competitive nation.

"We have just been through one lost decade -- when America's standard of living fell, when our wealth shrank, when millions lost their homes, when young people could not find work," Trumka said, according to prepared remarks. "What should be crystal clear right now is that the United States is falling behind in the global economy--and not because we lack the skills, the resources, the innovative drive or the entrepreneurial spirit to succeed. No, we are falling behind because we are governing from fear, not from confidence."

Trumka claimed the decline of American industry is due in large part to government yielding to big businesses like Goldman Sachs and News Corp., which "participate in a committee formed to raise business funds to attack public employees, based on the proposition that firefighters and nurses and medical orderlies are overpaid."

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the day's political news.

Losing Lieberman: As everyone in the political world knows, Connecticut Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman will announce at 12:30 in Stamford that he won't seek a fifth term in the Senate. The announcement will bring to an end a career that has been in the political limelight since Al Gore tapped him as his vice presidential nominee in 2000.

It also sets the stage for the second open Senate seat race in Connecticut in two years. Here's the basics: Lieberman's retirement, in theory, should help Democrats keep his seat in their caucus since a three-way race could have made Republicans more competitive. But there is a likely to be a tough primary on the Democratic side with former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) jumping into the race on Tuesday and Rep. Chris Murphy (D) also expecting to announce a run in short order. Both Bysiewicz and Murphy are known as highly aggressive politicians, so expect fireworks.

Two other Democrats -- Rep. Joe Courtney (D) and businessman Ted Kennedy, Jr. -- may also run. Courtney is less likely and Kennedy is expected to take his time deciding, according to Democratic sources.

On the other side of the aisle, Republicans are hoping to avoid another difficult primary like they had last year. The top potential contenders are Tom Foley, who narrowly lost the governor's race last year, and 2010 Senate contender and former WWE CEO Linda McMahon.

According to Connecticut GOP Chair Chris Healy, they key for Republicans will be to avoid a nasty primary. In the 2010 governor's race, a divisive primary went on to hurt Foley in the general.

"Democrats have an advantage by virtue of their numbers," he told Hotline On Call. "It's my hope that we won't have a primary on our side and we can united behind one candidate."

For Those Keeping Score: North Dakota and Connecticut seem to have some sort of cosmic political connection. Two years ago, Sens. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) announced their retirement on the same day. On Tuesday, the Lieberman news leaked out and Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) said he wouldn't seek re-election.

Pressing Pence: Indiana Rep. Mike Pence's (R) deadline for deciding whether he will run for president or governor is fasting approaching and there appears to be a growing chorus trying to push him into the presidential race.

Pence has kept himself in the limelight, addressing the Indiana state legislature Tuesday night. That sounds like a hint toward a gubernatorial run, right? No so fast. His speech focused on broad themes like "new American federalism." More, a group of state legislature in South Carolina -- about 10 of them -- is holding a press conference Wednesday to launch their "Draft Pence" campaign.

On top of that, the Wall Street Journal reports that conservative leaders like former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas), Brent Bozell and Morton Blackwell are also lining up behind a Pence presidential bid this week.

We've said previously that reading Pence tea leaves has proven increasingly difficult. And Pence was purposely vague on Tuesday, telling reporters: "I would say our options we're considering and we're reflecting on are to either continue to serve in Washington in some capacity, to come home to Indiana to seek higher office or to seek higher office on the national level."

Chinese President Hu Jintao makes a four-day state visit to the U.S. and Jimmy Kimmel thinks the White House is prepared, "Vice Pres. Biden has been instructed not to do his hilarious 'Who's on first?' routine."

Conan O'Brien is fascinated by former Vice Pres. Dick Cheney's new battery operated heart pump.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:32 when Jon Stewart makes up a new Palin-ism.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

Independent Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman will not run for re-election in 2012, sources have confirmed to the National Journal, a move that will likely bring an end to an often-controversial 24 years in office.

The 68-year-old lawmaker, now in his fourth term, will formally announce his decision Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. in Stamford, Conn.

The senator's retirement is likely an acknowledgment that his quixotic political journey -- which earned him the admiration and the scorn of both political parties -- has finally left him without a base and, consequently, facing long odds against a potentially strong bipartisan field.

"It'd be the heaviest lift he's ever done -- including his vice presidential run," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of the Cook Political Report.

One of Lieberman's favorite songs, according to a longtime associate who didn't want to be quoted before the senator's retirement was official, is Frank Sinatra's "My Way." It could have been his personal anthem.

He was a loud voice of support for former Pres. George W. Bush's war on terrorism and his invasion of Iraq. But he tried to woo Republicans to support Democratic legislation on issues like climate change and immigration reform.

The West Virginia Supreme Court of Appeals ruled Tuesday that the state must hold a special election for governor by Nov. 15 -- a year after Sen. Joe Manchin (D) left and acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) was sworn in.

The decision, which makes West Virginia one of just four states to hold a gubernatorial election this year, should set off a scramble as a big field of candidates jockeys for position in the abbreviated election season.

In the ruling, the court agreed with the West Virginia Citizen Action Group, who brought the case against Tomblin, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) and state House Speaker Rick Thompson (D), arguing that the state could not go two years without electing a new governor. The court ordered Tomblin to schedule the special election this year.

Former West Virginia Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R) has already officially entered the race, and Ireland also just said that Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) wouldn't run for governor. The state GOP chair, Mike Stuart, has expressed interest, as has state Sen. Clarke Barnes (R).

The Democrats have a deep bench in the state: Tomblin is expected to run, and myriad other politicians have expressed interest, including Thompson, acting state Senate Pres. Jeff Kessler (D), state Sen. Brooks McCabe (D), Tennant and Treas. John Perdue (D).

With so few other state-wide races this year, and particularly given that West Virginia is a traditionally Democratic state that has recently been trending increasingly Republican, the race should be a good harbinger for 2012.

After Sen. Kent Conrad's (D) announcement Tuesday that he won't seek re-election, the Cook Political Report has moved the North Dakota Senate race from "likely Democrat" to "Toss Up."

From Cook:

2010 was not especially kind to Democrats in North Dakota, and Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad's announcement today that he will retire at the end of this Congress may be a sign that 2012 won't be much better. Conrad's retirement puts a race that Democrats were favored to retain - at least at the start of the cycle - into the Toss Up column.

The 2010 elections saw Republicans pick up the open Senate seat vacated by Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan. Republican John Hoeven, who was Governor, took 76 percent of the vote in a race that Democrats didn't even contest. Democratic At-large Rep. Earl Pomeroy was defeated in his bid for a 10th term, losing to Republican Rick Berg, 45 percent to 54 percent. Democrats also took a hit in the state legislature where Republicans were able to gain strong supermajorities in both chambers. Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the 94 seats in the state House and 21 of the 47 seats in the state Senate. They saw those numbers drop to 25 seats and 12 seats, respectively.

Read more here, subscription required.

When the Democratic-leaning automated polling firm Public Policy Polling released some less-than-stellar approval ratings for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) last week, speculation arose that his seat might be vulnerable in 2012. According to the poll, 37 percent of New Jersey voters approve of Menendez's performance, while the same percentage disapproves.

But despite these lackluster numbers, several remaining factors make a Republican pick-up in New Jersey unlikely.

Historical precedent certainly doesn't favor the GOP. New Jersey has not elected a Republican senator since Clifford Case won re-election in 1972. (Sen. Nicholas Brady (R) was appointed in 1982 due to a vacancy, but served less than one year.) Only West Virginia and Hawaii have longer active streaks of Democrat-only Senate delegations.

Republican candidates have also struggled to make the Senate contests competitive in recent years. In the three New Jersey Senate races since 2002, Democrats have won by at least 9 points.

And a significant contributing element to Menendez's low approval ratings has recently changed. For the past two years, Menendez has served as the chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and much of his focus has been out of state, working to bring more Democrats to the Senate. Now that he has passed the reigns of the DSCC to Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Menendez can devote more of his time to his home state and, according to Ben Dworkin, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey politics at Rider University, Menendez's approval numbers will likely improve as a result.

Further complicating matters for Republicans, Pres. Obama will sit top the Democratic ballot in 2012. Obama remains very popular in New Jersey - a recent PPP poll had the president leading popular Gov. Chris Christie (R) by 17 points in a hypothetical presidential matchup in the state. Obama's presence will provide Menendez with an enthusiasm and turnout boost he would not have enjoyed had his seat come up in 2010. With Obama on the ballot in 2008, Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg (N.J.) cruised to re-election by 14 points.

Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) will announce whether he will seek re-election in 2012 on Wednesday.

Whether Lieberman will seek another term as an independent or retire is one of the biggest political mysteries early on this election cycle. Earlier Tuesday, former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) announced she will run for the Senate and Rep. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) is likely to follow her lead.

In an email to supporters, Lieberman said he is planning on event on Wednesday in Stamford, Conn., at 12:30 p.m.

"Thank you for the trust and support you have shown us over the years," Lieberman said in the email, obtained by Hotline On Call. "We are blessed to have friends like you, and we go forward with both a tremendous sense of gratitude and great faith in the future."

It's tough to read the tea leaves on his decision, and Lieberman's camp has been mum this afternoon. A decision this early in the cycle could suggest he would rather spend the remainder of his time in the Senate working on his policy goals than dodging re-election questions.

But Lieberman also may want to get an early start on what would be a contentious re-election bid, and signal to his supporters that he's ready to campaign - and raise the millions necessary for the bid.

Lieberman has not announced which party banner he'll run under, if he runs for re-election. He has not officially ruled out running as a Democrat, but has said he is more likely to run as an independent.

An internal poll conducted for the nascent campaign of former Conn. Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) shows her narrowly ahead in Democratic primary matchups and three-way general election contests against incumbent Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) and the two GOP statewide nominees last year.

The poll, conducted in mid-December, well before Bysiewicz announced her candidacy, shows Bysiewicz leading a three-way matchup with Lieberman and 2010 Senate nominee Linda McMahon (R), 34 percent to 30 percent to 28 percent. If 2010 gubernatorial nominee Tom Foley (R) is the GOP nominee, Bysiewicz leads, 33 percent to 29 percent to 27 percent. While Bysiewicz can claim leads in both matchups, the close margins indicate that a three-way contest could be anyone's race.

But there are still many developments in the race to come. Lieberman has yet to say whether he'll seek re-election, for one. If he decides against it, Bysiewicz would start the race with a more decisive lead over McMahon. In her poll, she led McMahon 54 percent to 36 percent.

It also remains to be seen who Bysiewicz will face in the Democratic primary. She starts narrowly ahead of Rep. Chris Murphy (D) and Connecticut-based attorney Ted Kennedy Jr. (D), who has also been mentioned as a possible Senate contender in neighboring Massachusetts. Bysiewicz earns 32 percent of the Democratic primary vote, with Murphy and Kennedy both at 26 percent. Bysiewicz also leads Murphy head-to-head, 46 percent to 37 percent.

Murphy said Tuesday that he is interested in the race, and will be shortly announcing a decision. 

"My interest in running for Senate in 2012 is well known in the state, and I expect to announce my decision very soon," he said in a statement. "All I can say now is that this is going to be a pretty busy few weeks."

Murphy, who is known for his aggressive style, is very close to running, according to plugged in Connecticut Democratic sources, while Kennedy is likely to wait longer to make a decision. Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) has also indicated he is considering the race, but is considered less likely to run than Murphy.

Indiana Republican Sen. Richard Lugar -- one of the Tea Party's top targets in 2012 -- said Tuesday that he is already gearing up for his toughest re-election bid.

Speaking a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor, Lugar said he is going ahead full steam with his re-election campaign. He added, however, that at this point, he doesn't know how difficult a challenge he faces.

"It's hard for me to evaluate how serious the threat is," he said, "but I take any opposition seriously."

Lugar's moderate voting record has made him a prime target for Tea Party activists. Recently, he has said that Congress should reinstate the assault weapons ban and opposed a moratorium on earmarks -- one of the top issues among the Tea Party right.

The Republican also said that he is planning a fundraiser on Friday to help pad his campaign coffers.

"Coincidentally, we have a very large fundraiser on Friday night, at least by Indiana standards," he said. "We hope to raise $320,000. We have several hundred people who are coming out very early."

When asked about the Tea Party, Lugar said the activists are generally angry with the government.

"I think the Tea Party people reflect a good number of people who are unhappy about a lot of things -- including myself and any office for that matter," Lugar said. "And cleaning the slate, they would feel that might be a good idea -- starting with the president."

Former Delaware Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell (R) has officially filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to organize her own political action committee -- Christine PAC.

The Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin-backed candidate upset former Rep. Mike Castle (R) in Delaware's GOP Senate primary but lost to Democrat Chris Coons by 16 percentage points. Still, that loss hasn't deterred her, and she indicated last month she intended to remain active in politics and that she was moving ahead with her own PAC.

In a letter to the FEC dated Jan. 3 and received on Jan. 14, her treasurer, Paul Kilgore, writes that: "This committee intends to make independent expenditures" and "intends to raise funds in unlimited amounts." According to the FEC filing, Christine PAC will be based out of Wilmington, Del.

O'Donnell's campaign committee is being investigated by the FBI after the watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics filed a complaint that she had allegedly used campaign cash to pay for personal expenses.

North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad (D) won't seek re-election in 2012, presenting Republicans a top pick up opportunity next year.

(Here's a look at other retirees and potential retirees.)

In a statement, Conrad said he decided to spend the rest of his term addressing the country's problems instead of focusing on a re-election campaign.

"After months of consideration, I have decided not to seek re-election in 2012," Conrad said. "There are serious challenges facing our State and nation, like a $14 trillion debt and America's dependence on foreign oil. It is more important I spend my time and energy trying to solve these problems than to be distracted by a campaign for re-election."

Conrad was considered very vulnerable in 2012, but he represented the Democrats best shot at holding on to the seat. Without him in the race, Republicans -- who made significant gains in North Dakota last year -- start the 2012 cycle with significant advantage.

In 2010, Republican picked up both North Dakota's other Senate seat and the state's lone House seat. Already, Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk has announced he will run for the seat. Other potential Republican contenders include Gov. Jack Dalrymple, who is also considering a run for a full term as governor, and Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee welcomed the news.

"In the wake of Sen. [John] Hoeven's (R-N.D.) overwhelming victory last year, Senate Republicans fully expected North Dakota to be a major battleground in 2012, but Sen. Conrad's retirement dramatically reshapes this race in the Republicans' favor," said NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh.

North Dakota does, however, have a history of electing Democratic senators and there is something of a bench in the state -- albeit a short one. Former Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D), who lost last year, could force a competitive race, as could former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp.

In a statement, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray (Wash.) also said that Democrats may benefit from a crowded GOP primary.

"There are a number of potential Democratic candidates who could make this race competitive," she said, "while we expect to see a contentious primary battle on the Republican side."

This post was updated at 11 a.m. with Conrad's statement.

Former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz announced Tuesday that she will challenge Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), setting off what is likely to be a very complicated primary and general election.

"I am running for the U.S. Senate for the same reason I first entered public service: because I want this state to be a better place for my children and yours," Bysiewicz said in a statement.

Bysiewicz's announcement will have a broad impact on the 2012 race. On the Democratic side, it will put pressure on Connecticut Reps. Chris Murphy (D) and Joe Courtney (D), who are also looking at the race. And there has been growing speculation in D.C. that -- after several recent missteps by Bysiewicz -- Murphy may be the Democrats' strongest candidate in the race.

It will also weigh heavily on Lieberman's 2012 thinking. Lieberman has yet to formally say whether he'll run for re-election, but he could benefit if there is a crowded and damaging Democrat primary.

On the other hand, Bysiewicz -- who has long been considered a rising star in Connecticut politics, much like newly elected Sen. Dick Blumenthal (D) -- is reportedly going to release polling that shows she remains popular in the state. If that holds up through a contested primary, she -- or Murphy, for that matter -- would likely represent a tougher challenge from Lieberman's left than Ned Lamont (D) did in 2006.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the day's political news.

Obama's Moment? If Pres. Obama earns re-election in 2012, expect most pundits to point to his gripping speech in the wake of the tragic Arizona shooting as the turning point in his first term. New polling from the Washington Post and ABC News shows why.

Obama's approval rating has jumped to 54 percent -- his highest in months. Eight in 10 respondents approved of how he responded to the tragedy, including 71 percent of Republicans. Even his approval rating among Republicans jumped from 8 percent to 22 percent.

The reason? Obama has reminded people why they like him -- even if they don't necessarily like his policies. Obama's personal ratings are very high in the poll. Nearly six in 10, for example, say Obama understands the problems of people like them -- his highest rating on that question in more than a year.

But, on the issues, not all the news in the poll is good for Obama. Narrow majorities disapprove of how he has handled the economy, health care reform and the budget.

A second poll out today, by CNN/Opinion Research, confirms the Obama surge, with his approval at 53 percent -- five points higher than it was last month.

Humbling Hatch: Utah Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch, who has been preparing for a tough re-election bid, has reason to be concerned. A Utah Policy Poll released late Monday showed Hatch in third place in a hypothetical 2012 GOP field.

The problem with the poll is it includes former Utah Gov. and current ambassador to China Jon Huntsman in the Republican field. And Huntsman dominates, taking 48 percent of the vote. Huntsman is extremely unlikely to run for the Senate.

More troubling for Hatch is he also narrowly trails Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R), who is a prospective Senate challenger. Chaffetz pulled 23 percent in the survey while 21 percent supported Hatch.

A Chaffetz-Hatch showdown will be ground zero in the 2012 Tea Party vs. establishment dynamic. And it is tailor made for Tea Party activists. The nominating process in Utah takes place at the state's GOP convention, meaning that Tea Party activists only have to influence Republican delegates, many of whom are more conservative than the Utah electorate anyway. That's exactly how Sen. Bob Bennett (R) lost his seat last year, finishing third at the convention.

The Return Of Politics: If there was any doubt that politics would return after a week of detente in the wake of the shootings in Arizona, a new ad airing Monday removes it. Americans United For Change is going up with a new spot opposing Republican efforts this week to repeal health care reform.

"Members of Congress know their health insurance plan can't deny coverage for their kids," the ad says. "The Affordable Care Act gave your family the same health protections members of Congress get...But Republicans want to take that protection away from your family. They want to put insurance companies back in charge."

The ad is backed by a five-figure ad buy and is running in D.C. on cable news and nationally on CNN. It is an early sign that despite the calls for unity, the tone in the Capitol is likely to turn very divisive this week as debate begins on the Republican efforts.

Texas Shuffle: The Texas race for retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is moving at a blistering pace. The Texas Tribune reports that Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams -- a favorite in Tea Party circles -- will resign from that post to officially pursue the race this week. Williams had already set up the framework of a campaign with it looked like Hutchison would vacate her seat in 2009 to run for governor.

Meanwhile another Williams -- and another conservative Republican -- has already earned the backing of former Pres. George H.W. Bush. Bush announced Monday that he'll support former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams (R).

The early moves show how quickly this race is going to move. They will also force some of the other big Republican contenders -- like Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert -- to accelerate their timetables.

Members of Congress plan to sit together during Pres. Obama's State Of The Union address, but Jon Stewart isn't sure that's enough, "And in light of current events, tonight I will not refer to the caucus across the aisle as douche bag central."

Conan O'Brien is surprised that former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger passed up $200 million worth of movie roles while in office, "However most movie goers say it was worth it."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00 for the Congressional Light Bright.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- The first few days of the week were consumed by sadness and an odd sense of powerlessness by many in Washington. As one of their own lay fighting for her life, Monday began with a rare show of bipartisanship we haven't seen since 9/11. But by the end of the week, it was clear the bipartisan flood of good will was eroding. While no party committees formally sent out press releases out of respect, behind the scenes and on background with reporters, talk turned to Republican efforts to repeal health care reform in the week's waning days. It's likely to be back to politics as usual next week, despite proposals to even sit together at the State of the Union. A united Washington? Only every so briefly.

-- It's good to get emotional. This week Pres. Obama tapped into what Republicans have been using for months: visceral emotion. Obama's Tucson speech, which was hailed by both sides of the aisle as one of the best speeches of his presidency, managed to pinpoint the pain of last week's events while maintaining his signature call for optimism. Obama has long maintained over the past two years that being the voice of reason -- that is, winning the electorate's favor with logic and lecturing -- is a more effective approach than pandering to Americans' emotions. While the Democrats' historic losses in November prove that fear can be powerful motivator, Obama's speech also demonstrates the power of positive rhetoric. Most importantly, this week the electorate was reminded why they elected Obama in the first place.

-- One of the worst aspects of the Arizona shooting is that no one is sure why it happened. And we learned this week that assumptions about the causation of events can be problematic and polls can surprise you. Some in the media jumped the band wagon. You'd think with all the coverage of heated rhetoric that Americans' would believe the shooter was a product of vitriolic talking points and that new gun laws would be the solution America wanted. But no. In a USA Today poll released this week only 15 percent of those polled said rhetoric was to blame. In a CBS poll, only 20 percent thought that stricter gun laws would have helped prevent the violence. For all the rhetoric about rhetoric, polled audiences have yet to buy it.

-- Political Junkies are desperate for the Republican presidential primary season to truly commence. With most potential candidates holding back their official entries into the race, the relatively unknown Herman Cain set off a flurry of reporting and interest Thursday by forming an exploratory committee. It remains to be seen whether Cain's early buzz translates into heightened relevance in the crowded field, but at this point that appears unlikely.

This story was updated at 2:52 p.m.

Former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele dropped his bid for a second term on Friday after being offered a lucrative deal in exchange for his endorsement, sources on the committee tell The Hotline.

Steele dropped out of the race for chairman after four ballots on Friday and threw his support to Maria Cino, a former Bush administration official who finished third in the race. Steele endorsed Cino from the stage after ending his bid, a rare public announcement in a contest marked more by quiet member-to-member conversations.

That endorsement came at a cost, according to committee insiders. As candidates jockeyed for position, Steele sat down with aides to both Cino and former RNC co-chairman Ann Wagner in search of a deal. Eventually, Cino allies offered Steele a deal that would have been more lucrative than the chairman's salary, the sources said. The RNC chairman makes $224,500 a year. Whether the deal included guarantees of contracts or of future employment was not immediately clear to sources who spoke with The Hotline

Cino herself was not involved in the conversation. At one point, Cino campaign manager Matt Schlapp spoke with Steele and promised no Cino allies would bad-mouth the outgoing chairman or stand in his way as he sought to make the move to the private sector, according to a source who was briefed on the meeting. The source said Schlapp offered no financial deals or jobs. Steele did not respond to an email seeking comment.

Swapping goods or favors in an election among 168 political insiders like those who make up the RNC is as common as denying those deals exist. Those favors can involve transferring money to states, or appointments to RNC committees, or fundraising visits to states by party chairmen.

In between rounds of voting on Friday, negotiations were fast and fierce as candidates spent more time talking to each other than with undecided and uncommitted voters. Candidates dashed in and out of side rooms in full view of the media.

Deals frequently become obvious over time. On Friday, candidates met with members of the island caucus, an influential group of members who routinely vote as a bloc in order to win concessions for their territories. In 2009, island voters backed Steele, and he repaid them with transfers of cash to Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the Northern Mariana Islands, and with a semi-annual meeting held in Hawaii early in 2010.

Word of a deal is enticing precisely because Steele endorsed Cino, who had the backing of many in the Washington establishment. Cino had been endorsed by House Speaker John Boehner, who made phone calls on her behalf and made a passing reference to his support for Cino during a rreception for RNC members on Wednesday. Boehner did not offer the deal, the sources said, and Boehner's spokesman said the speaker, engaged in a members retreat in Baltimore this weekend, had not spoken with Steele on Friday.

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. -- Wisconsin Republican Party chief Reince Priebus will serve as chairman of the Republican National Committee, securing enough votes on Friday to deny Michael Steele a second term and holding off three additional challengers.

Priebus won 97 of the 168 votes after seven rounds of balloting, eventually besting former Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis and former Bush administration official Maria Cino. Priebus led balloting consistently throughout, growing from 45 votes on the first ballot, one more than Steele, who abandoned his bid after seeing his vote totals drop in four rounds of voting.

"We can't wait to get to work here in this party, and rebuild this party," Priebus said. "We can defeat Barack Obama in 2012, together. We must come together for the betterment of our country and our party. I told you I would serve you in humility and work hard, and I'm going to start working for you right now."

The Wisconsin chairman pledged during his campaign to operate the committee in stark contrast with Steele's style. He promised to open contracts to a competitive bidding process and to involve members of the committee in major decisions.

Still, Priebus faced major hurdles from the start, not least of which because of his proximity to Steele himself, who had become deeply unpopular on the committee. In 2009, Priebus was Steele's closest advisor and biggest backer; Steele appointed Priebus general counsel after winning, and Priebus spent much of the next two years defending Steele and comforting upset members. Opponents used that connection to imply Priebus would run the committee like his predecessor, a charge Priebus spent much of his time denying.

Even when he served as Steele's close advisor, Priebus was able to maintain good relations with the RNC membership. He enjoyed early support from both Steele allies and detractors, building a coalition that, once Steele dropped out, grew to become insurmountable.

In winning the chairmanship, Priebus will take over a committee deeply in debt and beset by management problems after Steele's tumultuous two years in office. The RNC is more than $20 million in debt, according to internal finance figures; a $5 million line of credit comes due in late February, though RNC officials are negotiating a new payment plan.

Hotline editor-in-chief Reid Wilson will report live from National Harbor, where Republican National Committee members are gathered to elect a new chairman. Not every nugget of information fits in a story -- but they all fit here.

Here's The Hotline's take on the day's events, from today's Spotlight in our Latest Edition:

More than 100 members of the media are on celebrity death watch as the RNC meets to elect a new chairman. Two things are certain: Michael Steele will not win re-election, and the next chairman faces huge hurdles in putting together a broken committee.

-- The RNC will report more than $21 million in debt when they file their next FEC report, and the bills come due fast. According to documents we got our hands on, the party owes $5 million by the end of February and another $5 million by the end of June. It doesn't help that debt money is the hardest to raise.

-- Getting back to even matters. The RNC left seats on the table by not fully funding the 72-hour program, and if the turnout machine isn't operating at full force by 2012, the party is going to have real problems beating Pres. Obama.

-- Expect Wisconsin GOP chair Reince Priebus to lead the first ballot, with Steele close behind. Priebus is the front-runner, but the longer the race takes, the more his chances suffer. Former Michigan chair Saul Anuzis has the next chance of playing spoiler, but don't count Ann Wagner or Maria Cino out yet. The most fascinating moment: When Steele drops out. Many members are worried about the tone he takes, and fireworks aren't out of the question.

-- And don't expect to see the winner on Fox News. The new RNC Chairman will be busy on the phone raising money.

Check back throughout the day for running news and notes on the RNC campaign. Below the jump, our live-blog.

Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele has abandoned his bid to remain in his post, bowing to the reality that he does not have the support for another term. Voting continues to determine his replacement.

"I'm grateful to have served with one of the best RNC committees in a long, long time," Steele said earlier in the day.

The former Maryland lieutenant governor was seeking a second term after a tumultuous tenure. He defended his record, touting the million new donors the party attracted, the electoral gains of the past year and investments in technology and infrastructure the party can use going forward. But, he acknowledged, the party faces a tough task in the 2012 election.

Steele encouraged his supporter to support former Bush administration official Maria Cino.

"Now the task becomes harder, because Pres. Obama is waiting for you. The Democrat Party is waiting for you," he said. "I know the work that lies ahead will be challenging."

Steele entered the annual meeting with about a quarter of the committee supporting his bid for re-election. After the first ballot, however, his supporters began to slowly abandon him.

This weekend's Sunday programs will dedicate most of their air time to the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) and others in Tucson, Ariz.

NBC's "Meet the Press" turns to Giffords friend Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) to get an update on the Congresswoman. The show will then discuss several of the political issues that have risen due to the shootings with Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) and Rev. Al Sharpton.

ABC's "This Week" will hold a town hall, "After The Tragedy: An American Conversation Continued." Host Christiane Amanpour will bring together many of the men and women who had assembled in the Safeway parking lot when the shooting began. Among those who will join the town hall: family members of victims, citizens who took heroic action and community leaders.

Over on CBS, "Face the Nation" discusses the tragedy with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D), Gillibrand and Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.). While CNN hashes out the facts and still-unanswered questions with Reps. Tim Murphy (R-Pa.) and Grace Napolitano (D-Calif.).

"FOX News Sunday" deviates from the Arizona shooting to sit down with Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) and discuss his stance on government spending. The show will then take an in-depth look at the 2012 GOP presidential contest in an interview with former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R). The program's panel will discuss the tragedies in Arizona.

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), and Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), Collaborative for Academic, Social, & Emotional Learning Founder Tim Shriver and National Action Network's Al Sharpton.

MIAMI, Fla. -- NRSC Chair John Cornyn (R-Texas) jokingly dismissed Sen. Jim DeMint's influence in his home-state Friday, after the South Carolina conservative weighed in on potential successors to retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Tex.)

"Is that guy from Texas?" Cornyn said, after asked about DeMint's involvement.

"I'm certainly not going to weigh in or try to steer anybody in any particular direction. That's what the primary campaign is for," Cornyn added. "I just don't think these kinds of endorsements have that big of an impact. People want to jealously guard their prerogative to cast their vote, especially people who are living in that state. They don't want to delegate that authority or responsibility to someone else."

Cornyn spoke to Hotline On Call after moderating a panel on immigration at the Hispanic Leadership Network conference in Miami.

Cornyn and DeMint were on opposite sides in several high-profile Senate Republican primaries last year, including the Florida Senate contest between former Gov. Charlie Crist (who later ran as an independent) and Marco Rubio.

DeMint kicked off his involvement in 2012 races by sending a fundraising e-mail this morning to supporters of his Senate Conservatives Fund. In it, he touted the candidacies of Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams and former solicitor general Ted Cruz, while downplaying the potential campaign of Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R).

The National Republican Congressional Committee announced Friday that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) will headline their annual fundraising dinner on March 30 at the National Building Museum in Washington.

Christie, who has seen his national profile skyrocket since taking office, will bring star power to the fundraiser for the NRCC -- something NRCC Chair Pete Sessions (Texas) touched on in the announcement. 

"Governor Christie has become a highly regarded Republican since winning his gubernatorial race in 2009, and we are excited that he will be joining us in March," Sessions said. "With his credentials and experience, his address will be of great value to our supporters as we continue to build on our historic gains for 2012."

The dinner is also a high-profile get for Christie, who despite his insistence that he's not eyeing a 2012 White House bid, continues to generate buzz.

Fox News host Sean Hannity headlined the NRCC's 2010 dinner, where they raised more than $7 million. And in 2009, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) was the party's speaker.

Often more blunt than his other GOP counterparts, Christie joined other governors campaigning for several Republican hopefuls before last November's elections.

MIAMI, Fla. - Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) warned Friday that it would be "incredibly stupid' for the Republican Party to overlook Hispanic voters, who make up the fastest growing part of the electorate.

Exit polls show Hispanic voters favored Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin in the 2010 election.

"If you believe in the conservative philosophy as I do, it would be incredibly stupid over the long haul to ignore the burgeoning Hispanic vote," he told the crowd of about 300 people. "They will be the swing voters as they are today in the swing states. If you want to elect a center-right president of the United States, it seems to me you should be concerned about places like New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Texas, places where but for the Hispanic vote, elections are won and lost."

Bush, a popular two-term governor, son and brother of presidents, and oft-mentioned future candidate, has emerged as one of the leading bridges between the Hispanic community and the GOP establishment. He speaks fluent Spanish, has spent substantial time in Latin America, and is married to a Mexican-American.

Amid a national conversation about increasing civility in political discourse in the wake of the Arizona shootings, Bush also urged the audience to adopt a softer tone when talking about immigration.

South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint (R), whose Senate Conservatives Fund is a major Tea Party fundraising force, chimed in Friday morning on which candidates he may endorse in the open seat Texas Senate race.

In an e-mail to supporters less than 24 hours after Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) announced she won't seek re-election, DeMint poured cold water on the potential candidacy of Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R) and touted potential contenders Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R) and former solicitor general Ted Cruz (R).

"Based on media reports following Senator Hutchison's announcement, the Washington establishment appears to be lining up behind Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst," DeMint said. "However, the two candidates we hear about most from conservatives are Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams and former Solicitor General Ted Cruz."

DeMint's quick draw email suggests he will try to play a significant role in what is expected to be a crowded Republican primary. DeMint waded in to several Republican primaries in 2010 and backed insurgent candidates who, in several cases, went on to beat establishment favorites. Those included now-Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah).

The email also sets up the possibility of another battle between DeMint and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. By wading into the Texas race, DeMint is encroaching on NRSC Chair John Cornyn's (Texas) home turf. And DeMint hasn't backed away from that confrontation before. In 2009 when it looked like Hutchison would vacate her seat to run for governor, DeMint went ahead and endorsed Williams.

An NRSC spokesman said Cornyn is friends with all of the candidates and intends to stay neutral in the primary.

In his e-mail, DeMint sang Williams' praises again, but stopped short of an endorsement.

"Michael is an outstanding conservative leader and he will be at the very top of our list as we consider candidates for an endorsement in the 2012 election," DeMint said.

Updated 11:29 a.m. with remarks from the NRSC

MoveOn.org communications director Ilyse Hogue, who has spearheaded the progressive organization's political activity for the last two cycles, is leaving the group but her new job responsibilities won't be much different.

Hogue told Hotline On Call that she is heading to Media Matters, where she'll be a senior adviser, going after conservative media.

"The last 5 years have been a wild ride, from the depths of the Bush years to the new challenges of the Obama era. It's been an honor to spend them working alongside MoveOn members to help make sure our voices are heard in Washington," Hogue said. "Since the victory in 2008, it has only become more clear how much media sets the stage for what we can and cannot achieve in our country. I'm excited to work in my new position at Media Matters to make sure the media Americans see reflects the reality we all live in.

The Texas native has worked for MoveOn.org since 2006, when she was based in San Francisco. Since coming to D.C., she has handled all of the group's communications and has been influential in devising and implementing their political strategy as well.

Hogue's move in the latest hire at the Media Matters, David Brock's liberal media watchdog.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has named its deputy chairman and eight vice chairmen, completing its leadership team, NRCC sources confirm.

NRCC Chair Pete Sessions (Texas) has brought back Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.) as deputy chairman. Walden was part of Sessions' team in 2010 when Republicans gained 63 seats in the House.

For vice chairmen, Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) will return to lead the committee's efforts to lead interest group outreach. And Georgia Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R) will stay at the helm of the NRCC's redistricting efforts.

Sessions has also brought on board a freshman Republican -- Tennessee Rep. Diane Black (R) -- to lead his communications efforts.

Because of its gains in 2010, the NRCC faces significant challenges in 2012. Chief among them will be defending the 87 new members of the Republican caucus. To that end, the NRCC will emphasize its Patriot program, which identifies potentially vulnerable incumbents and helps them organize their re-election bids early. That program will be led by Sessions and Walden.

In addition to Walden, Nunes, Westmoreland and Black, the other vice chairmen and their focuses are: Reps. Vern Buchanan (Fla.), finances; Virginia Foxx (N.C.), grassroots; Ed Royce, regional chair coordinator; Steve Scalise (La.), recruitment; and John Shimkus (Ill.), mentoring.

This completes the NRCC's leadership team for the cycle. The NRCC has not, however, announced who will be its regional chairs for 2012.

Good Friday morning from National Harbor, Maryland, where members of the Republican National Committee meet today to elect a chairman for the 2012 election cycle. In lieu of your normal Starting Lineup, we offer five things to watch for as voting gets under way shortly after 10 a.m. (Remember, a candidate needs 85 of 168 votes to win the chairmanship):

Michael Steele's Votes: Steele is unlikely to win another term today, but he's going to play a role in electing his successor. A bloc of Steele supporters -- more than a dozen, fewer than two dozen -- are expected to bolt his coalition after the first ballot. The unanswered question remains: Do those voters feel spurned by Wisconsin GOP chairman Reince Priebus, the front-runner who once backed Steele, or are they more comfortable with him than with other candidates? If Priebus collects Steele's voters on the second ballot, the race could be over pretty quickly. If those voters abscond to another contender, subsequent ballots will get very interesting, very fast.

The Front-Runner Label: Priebus has 43 public endorsers, half the votes he needs to win outright. His opponents have labeled him the front-runner, and Priebus has clearly embraced that mantle. But that could work to his disadvantage, especially if Priebus is seen as capitalizing on is once-close relationship with Steele. RNC voters, like the electorate at large, want change. If they don't see Priebus as change, watch for a candidate like former Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis, who has set himself up as the outsider candidate, to benefit.

Saul's Stature: It is ironic that Anuzis would be seen as an outsider. He has served longer on the committee than any other candidate, and he's got close relationships with a number of members. He is, in fact, quite the insider. What's more, Anuzis has effectively been running for chairman for three straight years, with only the briefest of pauses in between his two bids. If committee members see Anuzis as desperate for the job, they may punish him. And his strategy of casting himself as an outsider is risky. But being close to members and being the "other" candidate give Saul Anuzis more potential upside than any other contender.

The RNC's Woman Problem: A long-standing, and heretofore obscure, RNC rule requirers the chairman and the co-chairman to be of opposite genders. The two women running for co-chairmen a running aggressive campaigns, and it's having an impact on Ann Wagner and Maria Cino, the two women running for chairman. If an RNC member has an affinity for one of the co-chairmen candidates, they have a disincentive to vote for Cino or Wagner. Wagner herself has made known to members that the women running for co-chair are hindering her campaign.

Down-Ballot Strategy: In 2009, Steele didn't win until the sixth ballot. This year, with five contenders all sporting public support in the double-digits, we could be in for a similarly long day. Candidates have been asking for commitments of support on second, third and fourth ballots, anticipating a drawn-out contest. Whomever is best able to keep his or her own supporters, all while picking up support from others, will become the next chairman. Chart gains and losses by round to intuit whose support is migrating where, and you'll have an idea as to who comes out on top.

Jon Stewart found Pres. Obama's memorial speech in Tucson moving but some pundits had issues with the seating arrangements. Stewart: "That would have made it a better show. But you know it's a memorial service not the Emmys."

Jimmy Fallon, on Vice Pres. Biden's third surprise trip in the Middle East: "Is it just me, or does everyone else feel like he's just lost in that area."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:45 when Stephen Colbert has something nice to say about Obama.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

West Virginia's political class is in a holding pattern as the state's highest court decides whether the state has to have a special gubernatorial election this year after Joe Manchin (D) vacated the governorship in 2010 for his successful Senate bid.

The timing of the next gubernatorial race - either this year or next - would have a significant impact both on who runs and which party would have the upper hand. And already, strategists and a host of potential candidates on both sides of the aisle are considering all the possibilities.

On Tuesday, the West Virginia Supreme Court of Appeals heard oral arguments in the lawsuit. The case, brought by the West Virginia Citizen Action Group against acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D), state House Speaker Rick Thompson (D) and Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D), seeks to move the special election for the seat vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin (D) up to sometime this year.

Justices expressed concern that there was a separation of powers issue with the court being asked to decide when and how an election should occur, something that falls under the purview of the legislature in the West Virginia constitution. But they also expressed skepticism of Tomblin's argument that though a "new" election is called for, it doesn't necessarily have to take place prior to the regularly scheduled 2012 election, even calling that argument an "uphill climb." Although no specific timeline has been given, justices are expected to decide quickly on the case.

The outcome of the case will have immediate repercussions on the sizeable field of candidates who've set their sights on becoming governor.

Former Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R) has already declared for the race. Tomblin is expected to run. Numerous other politicians have expressed interest, including Thompson, acting state Senate Pres. Jeff Kessler (D) and Brooks McCabe (D), Tennant, Treas. John Perdue (D), and state Sen. Clarke Barnes (R). The state GOP chair, Mike Stuart, is another who has talked about mulling a run. And there is some speculation that Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), the state's most popular Republican elected official, could decide to run -- if she doesn't opt instead to challenge Manchin in 2012 or Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) when he's up for re-election in '14. And even Chief Justice Robin Davis had to recuse herself from the court case because she has plans to run for statewide office in 2012, though she hasn't identified which one.

Former Minnesota Gov. and potential 2012 contender Tim Pawlenty (R) on Thursday called for the government to focus on education, staking claim to an issue that has remained low on the radar in early discussions of the 2012 race.

Speaking at the National Press Club as part of his book tour, Pawlenty delivered an impassioned address - something he isn't known for. He said that blue collar Americans could no longer rely on the "safety net for the American Dream," manufacturing jobs, and that it is imperative to improve the country's education system in order to compete in the modern world.

Pawlenty said he is "seriously considering" a run for president and would decide in the upcoming months. His book tour takes him through the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, where he has spent a lot of time in the past year.

He boasted of being the first governor in Minnesota in a half-century to hold the growth of government in check, as well as of leading the first state to link teacher pay to results. Pawlenty said that with the loss of industrial jobs working-class Americans with limited education options had fewer and fewer career paths, forcing them into dead-end jobs or onto government programs. He added that since the country couldn't be the biggest place or the cheapest place, "we darn well better be the smartest," and said the education system was developed in the 1950s and badly needed reform.

Pawlenty gave high praise to former D.C. schools chancellor Michelle Rhee, a Democrat, and criticized those who opposed her reforms. "While we were waiting for superman, superwoman was pushed aside," he said. "She spoke truth to power, and they kicked her out."

Casting himself as a constitutional conservative and Tea Party champion in the mold of Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), radio host and former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain (R) said Thursday that he's "very encouraged by the early support" he's received after announcing the formation of a presidential exploratory committee. But, he added, a White House campaign is "not yet a sure thing."

Despite having never held elected office and going up against what he described as a "very strong field" -- assuming many of the headlining candidates actually run -- Cain told Hotline On Call he sees an opening for someone like himself, whose "leadership experience, problem-solving capabilities and communication skills" appeal to an electorate wary of "the usual suspects."

In fact, he argues that being a political novice actually works in his favor. "I think it helps me -- it's a net positive," he said. "Some people might see it as a negative, but more people see it as positive, as indicated by what happened on Nov. 2. Most of the people in D.C. right now had experience holding public office -- how's that working out for us?"

Despite his insurgent rhetoric, Cain had positive things to say about many of the potential candidates -- especially DeMint and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, labeling them "in a class of their own" among conservatives. Cain described himself as ideologically akin to both men and said he could see himself "enthusiastically supporting" their presidential candidacies -- but didn't say whether one of them entering the race would prevent him from doing so.

"Jim DeMint shakes the trees and isn't afraid to rattle the cages of the Republican establishment, and I love that quality," Cain said. "And Newt Gingrich -- well, you're just not going to find anyone more astute on the issues than Newt Gingrich."

Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's announcement on Thursday that she won't seek re-election will set off a flurry of activity as candidates seek to position themselves for the 2012 race in the reliably Republican state.

In a statement Thursday, Hutchison said she was stepping aside so the 2012 race can start in earnest without her.

"I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate for re-election in 2012," she said. "That should give the people of Texas ample time to consider who my successor will be. In the next two years, you can be assured that I will pursue my duties, and my responsibilities to our state and people, with the same vigor that I have employed during my Senate service."

The news doesn't come as a major surprise. Hutchison, first elected to the Senate in a 1993 special election, had originally planned to vacate her seat to run for governor last year, but stuck around after losing the Republican gubernatorial primary to Gov. Rick Perry.

Hutchison held a fundraiser for her Senate campaign committee last month, to help replenish her nearly-empty campaign account - a move that led to speculation she was looking at running again. She had just $52,000 in her Senate account at the end of September after making an unsuccessful run for governor in 2010.

Hutchison was also highly likely to face a difficult primary if she ran for re-election. Her moderate record -- and her poor showing against Perry last year -- led many conservatives in the state to believe she would be vulnerable in the 2012 primary. (A poll, from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling showed her with just a 58 percent approval rating among Republicans.)

That thinking led a couple of Republicans to jump into the race the early: Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams and Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones.

Williams is considered a top tier contender, but he likely won't be alone there. Party sources say that Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R) is likely to take a good look at the race and would be a major force to be reckoned with. The Texas legislature is currently in session for the next several months, and Dewhurst will be playing a high-profile role in the legislative efforts.

Attorney General Greg Abbott (R) -- who is widely considered a rising star in Texas politics - is also a possibility to jump in the race. All three of those contenders -- Williams, Dewhurst and Abbott -- would be very capable fundraisers.

Another top candidate who had been positioning himself for the race in recent days is Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert. Leppert is an ally of Hutchison and was said to only be interested in the race if Hutchison retired. Earlier this week, Leppert said he would not seek re-election as mayor, setting off speculation that he was preparing for a statewide run.

A second Railroad Commissioner, Michael Williams (R), is also said to be looking at the race. An African-American Republican, Williams formed an exploratory committee when it looked like Hutchison would vacate her seat to run for governor. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) endorsed Williams at the time, and he has strong appeal with national conservatives.

The détente has to end sometime.

Notice the lack of partisan releases from committees and candidates this week? It's an expected -- and reverent -- pause both Republicans and Democrats are taking in honor of the victims of the Arizona shooting.

The debate this week inside the Beltway was supposed to have centered around the planned health care repeal vote scheduled for Thursday. Instead, the staple of press hits and talking points were shelved. Now, all of Washington's waiting. The partisan bickering seems a lot less important when the life and health of a member of Congress stands in the balance.

"What this has done is led Washington to take a deep breath, and it's put politics on the backburner," one Republican committee official told Hotline On Call.

But next week, the questions will begin -- and eyes will be on who will be the first to break the unofficial pact of silence.

In many ways, each side already has. Sure, no one in an official capacity has begun slamming an individual member or put the heft of a party committee behind a charge, but the finger pointing has nonetheless been begun in earnest between pundits and coalition leaders.

Washington will inevitably get back to politics as usual. Is it, after all, the business of this town. After times of a national crisis, there's always a "rally around the flag" moment. But the attacks eventually start up again -- they did after the Oklahoma City bombing, they did after 9/11, and they will after this.

But the question is, how will this week's events change the tenor of the 2012 cycle that's just now beginning. On their first day in Congress last week, many of the freshmen who won bitterly-fought contests were more than ready to look ahead.

Mississippi Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant (R), the early frontrunner in the 2011 gubernatorial race, believes he has a straightforward path to election: All he has to do is follow in Gov. Haley Barbour's (R) footsteps.

Bryant announced his candidacy last week and, according to both Democratic and Republican sources, is the odds-on favorite on the race. A big part of that is his ability to channel Barbour, who remains very popular in the state.

And, in an interview with Hotline On Call, Bryant appears to have every intention of making his relationship with Barbour well known.

"What I say is we will have a seamless transition," he said. "Gov. Barbour and I have been a team. He's not only a friend of mine, but he's been a mentor."

Bryant, the son of a diesel mechanic, was elected lieutenant governor in 2007. Before that he was the state's auditor for a decade, a post he took after serving as a state representative.

Despite his connection to Barbour -- who pretty much represents the Mississippi GOP establishment -- Bryant does not have a completely clear path to the governorship, or to the Republican nomination for that matter. Businessman Dave Dennis has also jumped into the race on the Republican side. Dennis started campaigning as early as last summer and has raised his name ID to the point where he is being discussed in Republican circles as a viable alternative to Bryant, according to Republicans in the state. A Tea Party candidate, James Broadwater, has also announced his intention to run in the Republican primary, as has Pearl River Supervisor Hudson Holliday.

This post has been corrected.

Former White House chief of staff John Sununu can be forgiven for not wishing incoming chief Bill Daley the best of luck -- after all, Sununu, now a member of the Republican National Committee, is actively working against Daley's new boss, Pres. Obama.

Still, the fraternity of former chiefs of staff is a small club, and Sununu did offer Daley some advice: "Convince the president that his problem is not communication, but substance."

"The president keeps saying that his problem is that he hasn't communicated, for example, on the health care bill," Sununu told Hotline On Call. "But it's not communication, it's substance. And one of the roles of the chief of staff is to give the president good advice."

The two men will face similar challenges in the post, albeit challenges that come more than a generation apart. Asked the lesson he had to learn fastest, when he took over atop George H.W. Bush's White House, Sununu grinned: "To be nice to Congress."

Faced with a Republican House, that's a skill Daley will have to learn quickly.

Good Thursday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the days' political news.

Christie The Conquerer: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) is beginning to look like the Teflon Governor - he's weathered (and even improved his standing) in situations that would have challenged able politicians.. Over the holidays, Christie was in Florida when New Jersey was hit with a massive blizzard. Upon returning, Christie took media scrutiny for his absence - and fully defended his trip, saying he didn't "even think about" canceling it.

In spite of that, Christie's approval rating in New Jersey is improving. The latest Fairleigh Dickinson poll this week showed fully 53 percent of New Jersey approve of his job performance -- a slight uptick from his numbers in the firm's November poll. More notably, his favorable/unfavorable rating is better than that of most governors in the past two decades, according to the pollster. (Keep in mind that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg saw his number dip to his lowest approval rating ever after the same blizzard hit New York)

Christie's no holds barred, authentic style may be a new model for politicians on both sides of the aisle. It holds lessons for 2012 Republican presidential contenders - it's better to stand on principle (even when the polls aren't initially in your favor), than pander to everyone.

"I think people need to be judged by the way they conduct themselves in the public arena, in a way that is as minimally staged as possible," he told the New York Times. "That's where you really get to know people."

Obama's Moment: Pres. Obama has shown his own resilience. A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday morning shows Obama's approval on the rise -- jumping to 48 percent, up from 44 percent in the pollster's November survey. The poll is the second this week that shows Obama's numbers climbing. A plurality -- 47 percent -- said his presidency has been a success so far.

The poll comes as Obama's speech in Arizona Wednesday night has gotten rave reviews, particularly from some of his sharpest conservative critics. And the survey showed that when it comes to his personal attributes Obama scores very well, suggesting that he has maintained a strong reservoir of support personally despite disenchantment with his policies and handling of the economy. More than six in ten -- 63 percent -- said he is honest and trustworthy and 64 percent said he has strong leadership skills.

Republicans Head To Baltimore: House Republicans leave Washington Thursday morning for their annual retreat in Baltimore, Md. After the Arizona shootings last weekend brought a unified Congress to a standstill this week, the retreat is the first sign that congressional business is close to resuming.

Pawlenty Makes The D.C. Rounds: Fresh off his appearance on the "Daily Show," former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has a busy day in Washington planned as he continues his media blitz and unveiling of his new book, "Courage To Stand." National Journal's Ron Brownstein will interview Pawlenty in the morning at the Newseum. The Republican will then speak at a luncheon at the National Press Club before holding a book signing at 5 p.m. If that weren't enough, Pawlenty will also hold a "pizza with Pawlenty" event at George Washington University around dinner time.

As we've noted before, Pawlenty's recent media tour is almost like a campaign kick off tour. Thursday, it appears, is mostly about courting D.C. elites and -- perhaps more importantly -- the press.

In the wake of the Arizona shooting that gravely wounded one of their own, Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), members of Congress in both parties are closely divided on whether or not security should be heightened for members when they are back in their districts, according to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll. Democratic Congressional Insiders were marginally more likely to say that protections should be boosted while Republican Congressional Insiders were a little more likely to demur.

Democratic Insiders who didn't favor heightened security worried that such measures would prevent them from connecting with their constituents. "This is still an open and free society and we shouldn't be building up fortresses around ourselves because of one lunatic's actions," said one Democratic Insider. "We can't do this job in a bubble," echoed another.

Republican Insiders who thought additional security didn't need to be mobilized for members at home, tended to feel that such measures were best left up to the individual. "Members are best at using their own judgment to anticipate when and where additional security is warranted," said one GOP Insider. Some also felt that threats should not be exaggerated. "What happened in Tucson was shocking because such things are so rare," said another. "Individual members haven't needed security in their districts and among their constituents for 230 years; they don't need it now."

Stephen Colbert defends former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's (R), "right to rage" and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gets tripped up during her visit to Yemen.

Jay Leno, on Sarah Palin's Alaska not returning for a second season: "That's a commitment for you. When a candidate walks away from a reality show, that's when you know their serious about being President of the United States."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:50 for Colbert's "The Word."

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

Updated with Fonalledas's endorsement, updated again for clarification

Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuno will support Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus for chairman of the Republican National Committee, marking the fortieth public endorsement for Priebus and setting him up as the clear front-runner going into Friday's election.

Priebus is far ahead of his competitors, including incumbent chairman Michael Steele, according to The Hotline's latest whip count. The winning candidate will have to secure 85 of the 168 total votes in order to claim a win.

Steele has at least 17 votes, though others have reportedly said they will back the incumbent. Former RNC co-chairman Ann Wagner has 15 votes, after winning support from Puerto Rico national committeewoman Zori Fonalledas; Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis has 14 public commitments; and former Bush administration official Maria Cino has 12 public backers.

"Reince's track record as chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin is exemplary, and an example of what the RNC chairman's office should strive to attain," Fortuno said in an email to RNC members announcing his support.

Fortuno's and Fonalledas's endorsements are significant for several reasons, not least of which because Fortuno is the only incumbent governor serving on the RNC. In 2009, Fortuno, Fonalledas and the 16 other delegates from Hawaii and the nation's island territories voted en masse for Steele, giving him a big group of supporters that proved overwhelming. But this year, island delegates have sent hints they will not stand with Steele, undermining his coalition and, several months ago, casting serious doubt on his ability to win a second two-year term.

The two Puerto Rican delegates are the first island delegate to say publicly they will back someone other than Steele. But it is little secret that at least some other island representatives plan to back another candidate as well. Steele still enjoys the public support of most of the island members.

In Massachusetts, members of Congress are playing a high-stakes game of musical chairs, thanks to a painful reapportionment process where the state is losing one House seat. With an-all Democratic House delegation and Democrats in control of the redistricting process, state party leaders will be drawing a map that leaves at least one of their own out in the cold.

The easiest way out would be for one of the delegations senior members to retire. But so far all of the state's 10 members are planning to stay, and no one has announced they'll vacate their seat to challenge Sen. Scott Brown (R), either.

"Everyone is drawn to the story of a retiring member or a member running for the Senate, but so far no one is," said veteran Massachusetts Democratic strategist Scott Ferson. "People are going to have to start focusing on the geography, which is going to be difficult."

"They are going to need a nine-district strategy to solve this riddle," he added.

Part of the problem is that in deep blue Massachusetts, once a Democrat wins a seat in the House they never want to leave. Several of the delegation has been in the House for decades, and most have obtained seniority in the chamber that they're not willing to give up voluntarily -- not even to challenge a Republican for a Senate seat.

Reps. John Olver (D), Richard Neal (D) and Barney Frank (D) hold top seats on the powerful Appropriations, Ways and Means and Financial Services Committees. Rep. Jim McGovern is nearly the top Democrat on the Rules Committee and Rep. Edward Markey is a close ally of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and chaired the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming in the last Congress.

All of that makes it politically difficult for the state Legislature to simply eliminate a member. So far, most of the redistricting discussion has focused on the western part of the state, where Olver and Neal represent geographically large districts that have seen their populations drop. A simple solution would be combining their districts, but both are doubling down on their re-election plans. Nearly two years ahead of Election Day 2012, both announced that they're running for another term no matter what transpires with redistricting.

Herman Cain (R), the conservative Atlanta-based radio host and former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, announced Wednesday that he is officially forming a presidential exploratory committee.

The announcement makes Cain the first 2012 contender to launch an exploratory committee.

"After receiving overwhelming encouragement from supporters and donors across the U.S., I have decided to form a presidential exploratory committee," Cain said in statement. "During this time, we will examine the extent of financial resources and grassroots support that would be critical to winning the Republican nomination."

While he would undoubtedly enter the race as a significant longshot, Cain has generated considerable buzz among grassroots conservatives and Tea Party activists, having spoken at dozens of rallies nationwide. Cain, who is African-American, recently emerged as the surprise winner of a presidential primary bracket on the conservative blog RedState, edging former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) by 800 votes.

Further demonstrating that he should not be dismissed as a fringe candidate, Cain was one of 12 potential Republican presidential hopefuls invited to an upcoming forum in Des Moines, Iowa. The event, organized by Iowa's Faith and Freedom Coalition -- an influential social conservative group with ties to the Tea Party -- will likely be the first forum of the 2012 contest.

Cain has never held elected office. He briefly flirted with a presidential run in 2000. In 2004, he ran for the Senate in Georgia but lost the Republican primary to then-Rep. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.).

In the wake of the tragic shooting last weekend in Tucson that targeted Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), Pima County Sheriff Clarence Dupnik's said that Arizona has become the "mecca for prejudice and bigotry" and "sort of the capital" of hatred. The remarks sparked instant impassioned responses from both the left and right and attention from the media, immediately thrusting a debate over the validity of his comments into the political realm.

It's become clear that overheated political vitriol was not responsible for a tragic and violent outburst from a troubled individual; rather it appears that the accused shooter had untreated mental issues and a tenuous grasp of reality.

Dupnik's statement was a broad indictment that spans broad cultural and social characteristics. For better or for worse, politics is part of that. While an examination of the way the 2010 election in Arizona played out can't come close to explaining the actions of one person, it does provide part of the backdrop onto which Saturday's events occurred.

And, according to Northern Arizona University political scientist Fred Solop, the tenor of Arizona politics has grown increasingly strained in recent election cycles.

"Generally I would say the rhetoric has heated up over time," he said. "Positions seemed more entrenched over time. There seems to be less of a bipartisan approach to politics. We have seen that with our state legislature even prior to this election cycle."

Giffords's own re-election bid was not without its share of tension. Her office was vandalized and she faced angry crowds at town hall meetings. Both she and her opponent, Iraq War veteran Jesse Kelly (R), used harsh attacks during the campaign. National Democrats also went after Kelly, at one point accusing him of Nazi ties.

Immigration emerged as a central issue in the race -- which Giffords won by a single percentage point -- as it did in many other campaigns across the state because of the new controversial immigration law signed into law last year by Gov. Jan Brewer (R).

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's Redistricting Q&A, where we sit down with some of the major players in the next reapportionment. After last week's discussion about the map in Texas with Democratic strategist Matt Angle, we now turn to Arturo Vargas, the executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials.

Vargas, an expert on Latino demographics and voting trends, will lead NALEO's redistricting efforts this year - which will be extensive. With the rapid Latino population growth, Vargas will work to make sure Latinos are better represented in the next Congress.

And Vargas has plenty of experience. After the 1990 census, Vargas directed MALDEF's redistricting effort that led to a significant uptick in the number of Latinos in the California state legislature.

In our interview, Vargas talks about whether he thinks the Voting Rights Act itself will be challenged in court in the coming year, his meetings with the Obama Justice Department about enforcing that act and specifically about where minority-majority districts may be created.

The Hotline:: Are you worried about challenges to the Voting Rights Act?

Vargas: I think there's plenty of reason to be concerned. I think some of these conservative groups are going to be looking for the ideal case to bring up before the Supreme Court . . . And at a time where communities of color are growing, are an even greater share of the population and the electorate, now is not the time to turn the clock back.

Hotline: Some conservatives make the argument that the Voting Rights Act covers areas with a history of discrimination going back to the 1960s and they're not necessarily the areas that currently have problems. Do you think that's a fair argument?

Updated with Keene's comments

The Conservative Political Action Conference won't see some social conservative organizations at their annual gathering, but one important constituency still plans to show up: Prospective White House contenders.

CPAC, the annual gathering that attracts thousands of young conservatives to Washington each year, is facing a boycott by some socially conservative groups upset over the organization's decision to allow a group of gay conservatives to set up a booth. The Family Research Council, the Heritage Foundation and the American Family Association, among others, have backed out of CPAC because CPAC is allowing GOProud to sponsor a booth.

The fight would mean little outside the rarified air of Washington-based conservative think tanks, but the striking groups are now insinuating that some potential presidential candidates who still intend to participate are implicitly insulting social conservatives.

And yet the social conservative boycott has not deterred any potential White House contenders from making what has become a traditional stop on the righty speaking circuit. So far, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Ron Paul, former Sen. Rick Santorum, former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Sen. John Thune -- all possible presidential candidates -- are confirmed to speak at the three-day affair, according to CPAC's website.

Still, the leader of the boycott, the American Principles Project, is taking after CPAC once again for inviting Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R). Daniels has already been hit with allegations he's not a true social conservative for his assertion that the next Republican president should call a truce on social issues in order to focus on the nation's economic challenges.

A cadre of potential Republican presidential contenders will address House Republicans this weekend at their annual retreat, according to Republican sources on the Hill.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) are among those slated to address the new Republican caucus at the retreat this weekend in Baltimore, Md.

The speeches will add to the speculation that Barbour and Gingrich are going ahead with 2012 presidential plans. The retreat will provide an opportunity for them to gain valuable face time with the Republican caucus -- something each of them could use if they opt to run for higher office.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- who put a damper on 2012 speculation when he became the new chairman of the Republican Governors Association -- will also speak at the retreat, as will Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R).

The current governors -- Perry, Barbour and McDonnell -- are slated for a panel on Friday titled "Solutions from the States."

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) on Wednesday broke her near-silence on the tragedy in Arizona with a nearly eight-minute video condemning the violence -- as well as the "blood libel'' committed by the media in blaming the incendiary political climate.

Police say Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) was the target of Saturday's shootings in Tucson that killed six other people and injured others. She was among 20 candidates Palin singled out for election challenges with a map that depicted crosshairs over their districts. After days of mounting criticism of the map from liberals - and substantial pushback from conservatives - Palin responded in trademark fashion: with posts on Twitter and Facebook.

"Acts of monstrous criminality stand on their own,'' Palin said in the video, which was posted to her Facebook page. "They begin and end with the criminals who commit them, not collectively with all the citizens of a state, not with those who listen to talk radio, not with maps of swing districts used by both sides of the aisle, not with law-abiding citizens who respectfully exercise their First Amendment rights at campaign rallies, not with those who proudly voted in the last election."

Palin went on to blame the media for their coverage of the shooting.

"Within hours of a tragedy unfolding, journalists and pundits should not manufacture a blood libel that serves only to incite the very hatred and violence they purport to condemn," she said. "That is reprehensible.''

Palin's previous comments on the tragedy were highly fragmented, in contrast to the uninterrupted videotaped response. She posted a brief expression of condolences just hours of Saturday's shooting. Then a staffer gave an interview to a radio talk show host arguing that the targets on the map were actually surveyor's symbols, not gun sights. Palin also delivered a short message through radio talk show host Glenn Beck that he read on air. It said: "I hate violence. I hate war. Our children will not have peace if politicos just capitalize on this to succeed in portraying anyone as inciting terror and violence. Thanks for all you do to send the message of truth and love and God as the answer.''

Palin's statement on Wednesday and accompanying video is certain to only inflame the debate over political vitriol and her role in it. With the video, Palin is effectively mounting a no-holds-barred defense of her incendiary brand of politics.

Sarah Palin: "America's Enduring Strength" from Sarah Palin on Vimeo.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the day's political news.

Vicki Firmly Shuts The Door: Vicki Kennedy, the widow of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D), put the kibosh on speculation that she will run for her late husband's seat in 2012. In an interview with the Boston Globe's Scot Lehigh, Kennedy -- who had previously said she wasn't interested in running for the seat -- firmly closed the door.

"There will not be a yes," she said. "The Senate is not where I see my future...I can't imagine running for elective office without Teddy at my side, and that really is what it all comes down to."

Among Democrats, Kennedy had right of first refusal on the race. Her remarks allow the real jockeying among other potential Democratic contenders to take on Sen. Scott Brown (R) to begin. The Democrats to watch are Reps. Michael Capuano, Stephen Lynch and City Year founder and 2010 candidate Alan Khazei. Capuano is seriously looking at the race, according to Massachusetts Democrats, and is looking to avenge his primary loss to Attorney General Martha Coakley in the special election for the seat.

As we've noted before, Brown isn't as vulnerable he appears at first blush. He is one of the most popular politicians in the state currently, and he has more than $6 million in his warchest.

Another Kennedy Steps Up: Coincidentally (or so it appears), another Kennedy who may have political aspirations addressed the Massachusetts state legislature on Tuesday: Joe Kennedy III, the great nephew of Pres. John Kennedy and grandson of Robert. Joe commemorated the 50th anniversary of JFK's 1961 "City on a Hill" address with a speech of his own that criticized the current political rhetoric.

"This rhetoric creates an atmosphere of hate in particularly difficult times," Kennedy said, per the Globe. "This isn't what President Kennedy stood for. It isn't what Dr. King or Robert Kennedy stood for."

This Kennedy is a Stanford and Harvard Law grad who has recently worked in the Barnstable County District Attorney's office. He was widely considered a potential candidate to run for retiring Rep. Bill Delahunt's seat last year, but ultimately passed on the race.

The Buckeye Bench: The ears of Republicans -- eagerly looking for a challenger to Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) -- perked up when the Ohio News Network reported earlier this week that new Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor is "90 percent" likely to make a run.

But don't expect an announcement soon. Plugged in Ohio Republicans say Taylor is likely to wait a while before making up her mind about the race. Among her top concerns is the timing of the race. The Ohio Inaugural Ball was just this week, and Republicans note how difficult it is to win statewide then turn around and immediately start running again.

Taylor, who is from the Akron area (as is Brown), will also want to wait to see how new Gov. John Kasich's early months as governor go. Taylor was appointed to lead the Ohio Department of Insurance earlier this week and will see her political fortunes rise and fall with Kasich.

The other Republican to keep an eye on in Ohio: state Treasurer Josh Mandel. Mandel is only 33 years old, served two tours of duty in Iraq as Marine intelligence specialist and is said to be extremely good on the stump. He won a solidly Democratic state legislative district in Cuyahoga County, where he won strong support from northeast Ohio's Jewish community. He is also one of the best Republican fundraisers in the state. But Mandel, like Taylor, also just came off a statewide win and will likely look to wait as long as possible to make up his mind on a Senate run.

Barbour's Damage Control: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) sought to save face on Tuesday night in his final State of the State address. Since stepping in it last month with controversial remarks about segregation in the South, Barbour -- who has been considered a potential 2012 contender -- has been trying to walk that statement back. On Tuesday he gave a speech aimed at one headline: He called for building a museum dedicated to the Civil Rights movement.

"The civil rights struggle is an important part of our history, and millions of people are interested in learning more about it," Barbour said, per the AP. "People from around the world would flock to see the museum and learn about the movement."

Former House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R-Texas) is sentenced to three years in prison. Jay Leno on Delay's sentence: "The judge sentenced him to 2 years for money laundering and tacked on an extra year for his performance on Dancing With The Stars."

Jimmy Kimmel is looking forward to former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's first speaking tour, "He's coming to talk to you whether you like it or not."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:25 for the "Arnold Schwarzenegger World Speech-Doing Tour"

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump!

When it comes to the art of the rager in Washington, D.C., no one throws down harder than Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.).

At least that's what Carole Goeas & Associates would have you believe judging from the title of a planned fundraiser benefiting the 67-year-old former House Judiciary Committee chairman. An e-mail titled "Martinis & Mayhem with Rep. Sensenbrenner Jan. 25th" went out Tuesday morning to potential guests for the get-together slated at the Grill 75 Room of the Capitol Hill Club, a favored spot of congressional Republicans.

"All I can tell you is it wasn't a breakfast," said Carole Goeas, the RSVP contact on the invitation.

As a point of comparison, the suggested donation of $500 for "individuals" is roughly worth the equivalent of 10 bottles of Cadenhead's Old Raj dry gin, among the most elite top-shelf martini mixers. Goeas did not confirm whether bringing 20 bottles of Old Raj and, invariably, mayhem would allow someone to become a Sensenbrenner "friend" instead of donating $1,000.

It's official: Pres. Obama has been invited to deliver his State of the Union address on Jan. 25.

And this year, the invitation to the Capitol came from the other side of the aisle. On Tuesday, new House Speaker John Boehner formally asked the president to his chamber.

Boehner made reference to the shooting in Arizona last weekend in the letter to Obama.

"Recent events have reminded us of the imperfect nature of our representative democracy, but also how much we cherish the ideal that our government exists to serve the people," Boehner wrote. "Even in the wake of tragedy, we must never waiver from our obligation to carry out their will and provide solutions to keep moving our nation forward."

Boehner also indicated he looks forward to hearing the president's ideas.

"As many great challenges lie ahead for our nation, we welcome an opportunity to hear your proposals," he said.

In the wake of this weekend's Arizona shooting, freshman Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) doesn't seem willing to tone down some of the inflammatory language that peppered his campaign against Rep. Ron Klein (D-Fla.) -- and on Monday he lashed out against Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) remarks on Sunday's "Meet The Press," calling them a "political cheap shot."

Talking about the shooting of her close friend, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), Wasserman Schultz pointed to remarks that conservative radio host Joyce Kaufman, one of West's most ardent supporters who nearly became his chief of staff, had made at a July Tea Party rally, saying that "if ballots don't work, bullets will."

"The shock jocks and the political movement leaders that are out there on both sides of the aisle need to have some pause as well," said Wasserman Schultz, pointing to Kaufman's remarks as an example of rhetoric that should be "toned down."

On Monday, West responded in-kind, calling in to Kaufman's radio show and saying Wasserman Schultz's criticism showed "how low people will go for political opportunism."

"I was standing there when you said that," West told Kaufman. "And guess what, we did it by the ballot box."

West went on to point fingers at his in-state colleague, saying "if you want to talk about toning down the political rhetoric, you need to look at yourself, first and foremost, you Congressman Wasserman Schultz," and accused her of "incit[ing] a political riot and protest outside my campaign headquarters."

"I'm just glad I have more class, more character than she has exhibited," said West.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the day's political news.

Pawlenty Swipes Palin: The political fallout from the tragic shootings in Arizona continued Monday, as the discussion of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's controversial map made its way squarely into the 2012 presidential discourse. In an interview with the New York Times, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) pointedly said about the map: "I wouldn't have done it."

Pawlenty didn't go too far in criticizing Palin, adding that there is little evidence that the map contributed to the alleged shooter's motives. "It's not a device I would have chosen to do." he said. "But I don't want to have anyone infer that there's evidence in this case that it caused or was a contributing factor. We don't know that."

The remarks, however, are definitely swinging upward for Pawlenty -- engaging a potential 2012 contender with a much larger national profile than he has. Besides a short Facebook message over the weekend, Palin has been nearly silent since the shooting. She e-mailed a brief message to Fox News commentator Glenn Beck on Monday saying she "hates violence" and that "our children will not have peace if politicos just capitalize on this." Some of her aides have said that the graphics on the map were not meant to be viewed as rifle sights.

But regardless of how the map is interpreted, the shooting calls into question whether Palin has a political future -- and if it includes a run for the presidency. Keep in mind that Palin already has some of the worst favorability numbers of the potential GOP presidential field.

Palin is now the second potential 2012 Republican contender that has now suffered a significant public relations disaster recently. Last month, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour's (R) comments on segregation in the South landed him in hot water.

More Pawlenty: The Minnesota Republican will continue his media tour on Tuesday. He is set to appear on "Good Morning America" and "The View" to promote his new book. Keep in mind how important this tour is to Pawlenty's presidential aspirations; he needs to raise his national profile to get to the same top tier as former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabeee (R) -- as polling from Gallup released Monday showed.

Daily Show Senior Correspondent John Oliver turns to the comfort of his panda pajamas to cope with the tragic shooting in Tucson, Arizona.

Jimmy Kimmel finds a new ring tone on the season finale of Sarah Palin's Alaska.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:10 to hear Kimmel's new ring tone.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

Members of the Republican National Committee are already starting to arrive in Washington ahead of Friday's vote. As each candidate for chairman scrambles for last-minute endorsements, they're finding fewer uncommitted targets.

Candidates have until Thursday at 10 a.m. to file papers informing the RNC's general counsel's office which states will be nominating them. Each candidate has to win backing from two members from each of three states in order to be formally nominated for chairman.

So far, Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus has sufficient support from his home state and from Illinois, Nevada, Mississippi, Alabama, Iowa, Oklahoma and North Dakota. Former RNC co-chair Ann Wagner could be nominated by Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia. Former Bush administration official Maria Cino has the support of members from Ohio, Utah and Delaware.

Only former Michigan Party chairman Saul Anuzis and current RNC chair Michael Steele are short the public support necessary to be nominated. Anuzis tells The Hotline he will have enough supporters to get him on the ballot. Already, two of three members from South Carolina and Texas back Anuzis, meaning he needs just one more commitment -- whether public or private -- to get on the ballot.

The standings:

Priebus -- 38
Steele -- 17
Anuzis -- 14
Wagner -- 14
Cino -- 12
Undeclared -- 73

After the jump, a full roster of each candidate's supporters.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) grabbed headlines and plenty of attention earlier this month when news broke that she will be speaking at a fundraiser in Iowa at the end of January.

And the Republican added fuel to the 2012 speculation when people close to her told ABC News that she is considering a run for president.

There appears to be more to Bachmann's dabbling in Iowa politics than just the fundraiser. According to her PAC's post-general election FEC report, Bachmann gave more money to candidates in Iowa in the run up to the election than any other state. Plus, the majority of the Iowa candidates were running for the state legislature -- meaning politicians who wouldn't be able to help her with any legislation in D.C., but who could aid her politically if she launches a presidential campaign.

From Oct. 14 to Nov. 11 of last year, Bachmann's PAC -- Many Individual Conservatives Helping Elect Leaders Everywhere (MICHELE) -- dished out at least $33,700 to candidates or PACS. Of that, $27,500 went to candidates or PACs in Iowa.

The biggest chunk of that money -- $10,000 -- went to the Iowans for Tax Relief PAC, the same organization hosting the Des Moines fundraiser where she is speaking on Jan. 21.

Now, these contributions are significantly less than the amount other potential 2012 contenders made to state legislature candidates in Iowa and other states over the course of the cycle. They do show, however, that Bachmann is -- at the very least -- trying to have a larger footprint in Iowa politics.

Newly elected Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, whose meteoric rise has made him a star in Republican circles, said Monday that he isn't interested in being the GOP's 2012 vice presidential nominee.

"Are you at least open to the possibility?" Panama City Radio host Burnie Thompson asked Rubio Monday, referring to a vice presidential run.

"No, I'm not," Rubio responded, after laughing at the question.

Rubio's name has been bandied about quite a bit as a potential 2012 running mate. In addition to being a new and young face, Rubio's heritage could help the GOP among the growing Hispanic population that has largely backed Democrats in recent cycles.

The Republican on Monday went on to say he is fully dedicated to his work as a senator.

"I want to be a U.S. Senator because I believe I can make a difference from that position," he said. "It's flattering sometimes, but that's about it."

Of course, this is doesn't entirely close the door on the possibility. Rubio may be seeking a low profile -- much like Pres. Obama did in 2005 -- and show that despite his stardom, he's not looking to the next election already.

As Congress prepares for a likely March vote on raising the national debt ceiling, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Pres. Obama will have to figure out how to muster up the Republican votes necessary to pass such a bill as House Democrats are hesitating to support the effort like they did when they had the majority in 2010.

It's a reversal of sorts. In February 2010, 175 Republicans voted against raising the debt ceiling from $12.4 trillion to $14.2 trillion while three missed the vote. None voted for it. Their main concern was the structure of the pay-go language Democrats attached to it, arguing that it made it too easy to raise taxes.

With unanimous GOP opposition in 2010, the onus was on Democrats to pass the measure -- and they didn't unanimously back the legislation. Thirty-seven Democrats defected and voted against raising the ceiling.

Only eight of the 37 Democrats that voted against the raise returned for the 112th Congress. The rest either lost their re-election campaigns, retired or opted against re-election to run for Senate and lost. The returning list includes Reps. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Larry Kissell (D-N.C.), Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.), Jerry McNerney (D-Cali.), Bill Owens (D-N.Y.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and David Wu (D-Wash.). Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) also voted against raising the ceiling and remains in critical condition after Saturday's shooting.

Five out of those eight won re-election in 2010 with less than 50 percent of the vote while Kissell, McIntyre and Wu faired marginally better, earning between 53 percent and 55 percent of the vote.

So far, Democrats are keeping their cards close to their vests until the actual bill is introduced.

Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), an immigration hardliner, is wounded after being denied the chairmanship of a subcommittee that handles immigration issues. And in an interview with National Journal, King made it clear who he blames: Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio).

NJ's Fawn Johnson reports:

"I'm going to be OK with it. I'm going to be OK," King told National Journal in a 40-minute interview. Even in the wake of the "unbelievably tragic" news of the Arizona massacre, King was obviously still smarting from the subcommittee rebuff. He didn't mince words in placing the blame directly at House Speaker John Boehner. "The speaker holds the big gavel, and he decides who gets the other gavels," King said. "It makes it very clear that it's not a meritocracy."

The public reason for King's demotion was a reorganization of the committee. The post was given to Rep. Elton Gallegly, R-Calif., a senior member to King who is considered conservative enough on immigration to satisfy tea party Republicans but not as outspoken as King. But it was also clear from GOP aides that House leaders worried about King and his tendency to press on immigration issues that angered more moderate members of his own party.

"John Boehner isn't very aggressive on immigration," King said, noting that the GOP "Pledge to America" barely mentions immigration or border security. "It's the tiniest section," he said.

Immigration advocates had been steeling themselves for a subcommittee led by a member adamantly opposed to any path to citizenship for illegal immigrations, a representative who has built a model border fence on the House floor and proposed ending automatic citizenship for babies born on U.S. soil. The immigration advocacy group America's Voice called King an "outlandish and outspoken anti-immigrant zealot."

King said the public hatred of him by immigrant advocates wasn't worth his respect or his attention. "It's the militant left, and I don't lose one second of sleep," he said.

See the full story here.

The voting members of the Republican National Committee are spending the final week before electing a chairman on Friday debating each candidate's fundraising prowess, a recognition that the next national party chairman will have to spend most of his or her time dialing for dollars and rebuilding a cash-poor committee.

And the conversation is turning nasty. Each candidate's supporters are delving into rivals' fundraising performance in hopes of dredging up material that would raise doubts in voters' minds.

At the moment, front-running contender Reince Priebus is taking the most heat, spurred by an analysis of his track record by conservative blogger Dan Riehl. Last Friday, Riehl chastised Priebus for touting having raised $14 million in personal contributions during his tenure as chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party -- something Priebus supporter Henry Barbour has claimed in an email. Nine million dollars of that money, Riehl found, came from direct transfers from the RNC itself.

In an email to fellow RNC members, Alaska Republican Party chairman Randy Ruedrich highlighted the report and criticized Priebus both for failing to grow a small-dollar donor base and for offering misleading characterizations of his fundraising performances.

"I am not claiming that Wisconsin Party fundraising is particularly poor, it is likely similar in scope to other states of that size," wrote Ruedrich, who is supporting former RNC co-chairman Ann Wagner. "Rather, I am suggesting that the claims of $14 million are designed to distort the real record for the purpose [of] overstating Mr. Priebus' fundraising abilities. At this crucial time, we need a chairman who delivers what they say and who doesn't feel the need to embellish their real records."

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) proves it doesn't take much to make new Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) cry and new Tea Party members make themselves comfortable in the House.

John Edwards denies reports in the National Enquirer that he's engaged to his former mistress Rielle Hunter but Jay Leno isn't sure who to believe, "Who are you going to believe? A sleazy purveyor of lies or the National Enquirer?"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:20 to find out what doesn't make Boehner cry.

Take today's Late Night Poll after the jump.

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup.

After Tragedy: Lawmakers on Monday will try to move forward from the tragic shooting on Saturday in Tucson. The latest:

-- Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) remains in an induced coma after being shot in the head. She is in critical condition, but has responded non-verbally to simple commands. Giffords' doctors told the New York Times that it would take at least several weeks to fully determine her long-term cognitive function.

-- The alleged shooter, Jared Lee Loughner, has been charged with five federal counts -- including attempted assassination of a member of Congress. He will appear before a judge on Monday.

-- A second alleged suspect, the cab driver that drove Loughner to the Tucson Safeway, has been cleared by authorities.

-- This week, the House schedule has been postponed by the Republican leadership. There will be a House resolution introduced on Wednesday "expressing the sense of the House of Representatives with respect" to the shooting.

-- Pres. Obama and the First Lady will lead a moment of silence on the South Lawn Monday morning at 11 a.m.

The shooting has already ignited debates about several hot button political issues -- including the use of incendiary rhetoric, gun control laws and security for members of Congress.

Please stay tuned to National Journal for the latest updates.

Romney Heads Abroad: Former Massachusetts Gov. and potential 2012 contender Mitt Romney left the country on Friday for a trip to the Middle East. According to his PAC, Romney is heading to Afghanistan, Israel, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. He is meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Afghanistan Pres. Hamid Karzai.

The trip, according to is PAC, is designed to give Romney a "first-hand look at what is happening in an important region of the world." It is an attempt to boost Romney's foreign policy credentials, as he prepares to run in a presidential primary field where none of the leading contenders have much gravitas in international affairs.

Romney's PAC announced the trip on Sunday, after the Republican had left the country. Romney is not engaging in "private diplomacy," his PAC said and the trip is being paid for by a coalition of private groups.

The Presidential Horse Race: News of Romney's trip comes as new survey data suggests he is among the best known and has one of the most positive images in Republican circles among potential 2012 contenders.

The Gallup survey of Republicans, however, found that other contenders score better than Romney. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) had the highest favorability rating -- at 30 percent. Meanwhile, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is the best-known -- with 95 percent of Republicans familiar with her.

Trouble For Hutchison: There are some troubling signs for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) as she considers whether to run for re-election in 2012 in a new Texas poll. The Blum and Weprin Associates Inc. survey, conducted for Texas newspapers, shows that Hutchison's approval rating has stalled at 46 percent among registered voters.

More problematic: Only 56 percent of Republicans approve of her job performance. That number makes Hutchison ripe for a Republican primary challenge and, as we have noted before, several Republicans are already lining up for the opportunity. One key indicator to watch: Whether Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert opts to run for another mayoral term. Leppert has expressed some reservations about challenging Hutchison if she doesn't retire, but if he decides against another term in his current job it'll be a sure sign he's eyeing the Senate race -- regardless of Hutchison's decision.

Also in the survey: Gov. Rick Perry (R), fresh off winning a third term and being named chairman of the Republican Governors Association, earned a 50 percent approval rating. More than six in 10 Texans, however, don't want Perry to run for president.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Tragedy struck in Arizona on Saturday, when a gunman opened fire on Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) and others in a Tucson supermarket. At the time of this writing, Giffords -- who was shot in the head -- remains in an induced coma. At least six people were killed in the rampage, including federal judge John M. Roll and a nine-year-old girl. The alleged gunman, 22-year-old Jared Lee Loughner, has been taken into custody and authorities are searching for a possible accomplice.

For full coverage of the shooting and analysis of Saturday's events, head to National Journal.

-- The more things change, the more things stay the same. This week was marked by changes; whether it is a new Speaker or a new White House Chief of Staff. But while the playmakers might have shifted from two years ago, two main issues most prominently on American minds during the 2008 elections (the economy and health care) remain the same. William Daley's appointment to White House Chief of Staff illustrates that job creation and improving the economy will be Pres. Obama's top focus (and his ticket to re-election) in the next two years. Meanwhile, Democrats and Repubulicans continued fight over health care -- coupled by a new Gallup poll that has 46 percent of those polled wanting to repeal the bill -- shows that this fight is going away any time soon.

-- Still, it is interesting to note one change in Obama's strategy -- that of replacing the ultimate political insider for a business-friendly outsider as chief of staff. While there are those who cite this as an inevitability given the Republicans gains in Congress (who needs a political wrangler when there are few to wrangle?), it also shows that Obama is learning from his mistakes in the run up to the 2010 midterms. Americans wanted D.C. outsiders to shake up Washington. And with Daley (and possibly former Democratic National Committee spokesperson Karen Finney, who is quickly moving to the top of the short list to become White House press secretary), that is exactly what they are going to get.

-- The first hours of the 112th Congress opened eerily similar to the waning days of the 111th. Republicans kept now-House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) as their political bogeyman and were in full 2012 campaign mode, targeting moderate Democrats for their votes on health care reform. New Republicans who were outspoken on the campaign trail were remarkably on-message during Wednesday's swearing in, but it didn't take long for Democrats to have their own bogeyman to begin painting ahead of 2012 after National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas) missed out on the House swearing in ceremony. Expect that flub to be brought up by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee often.

Television coverage of the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) will continue tomorrow on the political Sunday programs.

ABC's "This Week" completely scrapped their previously planned show and host Christiane Amanpour will now report live from the scene of the shootings in Tucson, Ariz.

CNN's "State of the Union" will preempt "Fareed Zakaria GPS" to air a special two-hour show starting at 9 a.m. Guests include Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Sens. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) and newly added guests former Republican National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie and former Clinton administration Chief of Staff John Podesta.

"Fox News Sunday" has added House Assistant Democratic Leader Jim Clyburn (S.C.) to the lineup of guests and will have a live report from correspondent Trace Gallagher, who will be in Tucson. Bret Baier will anchor "Fox News Sunday," while Shepard Smith, Bill Hemmer and Megyn Kelly anchor throughout the day.

FOX News seems to be the last network to have an on-air interview with Giffords before the shooting. The interview aired Friday.

NBC's "Meet the Press" pre-taped their interview with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on Friday and there has been no word on any lineup changes. And CBS' "Face the Nation" will continue with their previously scheduled guests -- Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) -- but will now turn their focus to the shootings.

MSNBC's Keith Olbermann will host a special "Countdown" Saturday at 8 p.m. due to the shootings. Note, Olbermann was suspended for two days by the network after it was revealed he donated to Giffords campaign in the 2010 cycle.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) was shot Saturday morning while hosting an event in her Tucson district, according to a senior House Democratic aide.

Giffords was holding a "Congress on your Corner" event in Tucson when she was shot at point blank range, news reports from Tucson said. At least three people were injured when the shooting took place just after 10 a.m., KOLD TV reported.

Giffords was shot in the head, according to the Tucson Citizen newspaper. A spokesperson for Giffords' office was not immediately reachable.

Giffords advertised the "Congress on your Corner" event on her official website, to be held from 10 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. at a Safeway in Tucson. Congressional staff were attending the event to help constituents with casework.

"'Congress on Your Corner' allows residents of Arizona's 8th Congressional District to meet their congresswoman one-on-one and discuss with her any issue, concern or problem involving the federal government," says the press release still on Giffords' website.

Full story on NationalJournal.com.

The new Congress and the GOP agenda will dominate the Sunday shows this week.

CNN's "State of the Union" and CBS' "Face the Nation" will explore the GOP's plans for this year and how Democrats plan to counter it. CNN will host Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), outspoken Repbublican Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and freshman Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah). And "Face the Nation" speaks with Durbin counterpart Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Min. Whip Rep. Steny Hoyer (MD).

NBC's "Meet the Press" will speak with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and ask him how the Democrats will follow through on their agenda with a slimmer majority. "Meet" will also talk with Reps. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) and freshman Raul Labrador (R-Idaho).

Over on ABC, "This Week" will discuss federal spending with House Budget Chair Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Budget ranking member Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). Moderator Christiane Amanpour will go behind the scenes with three new Republican members of Congress. Reps. Chris Gibson (R-N.Y.), Bobby Schilling (R-Ill.) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) will talk about how they hope to change Washington and if they can keep their campaign promises.

"Fox News Sunday" will discuss the Senate's agenda with Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.) and get a preview into the Republicans legislative agenda in an interview with vice chair of the House Republican Conference, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.).

Get the complete line up after the jump.

While it's still early in the 2012 cycle and many senators have yet to officially declare their re-election intentions, for some the uncertainty stands out more than others. The possibility of not running for re-election is particularly notable for a handful because of the impact their retirement would have on the dynamic of their races.

Even if a 2012 campaign is ultimately in the cards, the timing of an announcement and potential opposition that surfaces in the meantime for anyone in this group is worth keeping an eye on. Here's the rundown:

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.)

Fresh off of a busy December in which much credit was given to Lieberman for shepherding the Senate's vote to repeal "Don't Ask Don't Tell," Connecticut's senior senator has newfound momentum and increased credibility with Democratic voters who have distanced themselves from him in the past.

In a local interview this week, Lieberman expressed confidence in his prospects of winning in 2012, but stopped short of saying he is going to run. Lieberman added that if he does run, it will likely be as an independent.

Appealing to Democrats -- as he did with DADT -- is critical for Lieberman because he won't be able to rely largely on Republican support in 2012 like he did in 2006.

"The Republicans in 2006 nominated a very weak candidate, and Lieberman received a majority of the Republican votes in the election. He will not be so lucky in 2012 as an independent," said Quinnipiac University professor Scott McLean.

But while Lieberman's DADT victory will give him some momentum with Democrats, achieving full-fledged support still appears unlikely because of previous positions on issues like foreign policy. And complicating matters further for Lieberman, a couple of other congressional Democrats, Reps. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Joe Courtney are considering bids of their own, with the possibility of other Democrats entering the fray as well.

Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) starts her 2012 re-election bid on shaky footing, according to a survey out Friday.

The Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll found that only 37 percent approve of Stabenow's job performance and less than a quarter -- 23 percent -- would vote to re-elect her. A generic opponent pulled 43 percent against her.

Numbers like that could make Michigan a top pick up opportunity for Republicans in 2012. Already, some Republicans are seeing opportunities in other blueish states -- such as former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) , who is considering a bid against Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) in New Mexico. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is also considered very vulnerable after Republicans made significant gains in Ohio in 2010.

Michigan saw similar Republican gains in 2010. The state elected a Republican governor and now the GOP has control of both chambers of the state legislature.

What remains to be seen is who will challenge Stabenow. Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra is said to be considering it after losing the Republican gubernatorial primary last year. Other possibilities include businessman Tim Leuliette, Rep. Mike Rogers (R) and Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.

The Hotline's Tim Alberta reviewed former Minnesota Gov. and potential 2012 contender Tim Pawlenty's (R) book Courage to Stand on Friday for National Journal. His take is well worth a read. Key points:

The unambiguous message behind former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's (R) long-awaited memoir, Courage to Stand, is captured brilliantly by one brief sentence tucked into the book's introduction: "We did it in Minnesota, and we have to do it in Washington."

Of course, Pawlenty doesn't actually say that last part, but it's clear to anyone tracing his politically linear message that he's leading readers to connect the dots.

Check out the whole review here.

The political considerations of where to hold the 2012 Democratic National Convention for Pres. Obama are nearly endless. Each of the four finalists -- Charlotte, St. Louis, Cleveland and Minneapolis -- has numerous advantages and disadvantages as the Obama and the DNC begin to map out their 2012 path to victory.

But holding the convention in St. Louis, which looks like a frontrunner, would also have significant political ramifications for one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for re-election in 2012: Missouri's Claire McCaskill.

McCaskill is among a handful of Democrats who are top targets for Republicans in 2012. And coming off Sen.-elect Roy Blunt's double-digit win in 2010, Republicans believe Missouri is prime terrain for a pick up.

It should be noted that McCaskill has been campaigning for the convention to come to Missouri. "I can't speak with confidence we're gonna get it, but I think we're definitely in it -- it's down to the final two," she told National Journal at the end of last year.

McCaskill herself noted that there are pros and cons to having the convention in St. Louis for her own campaign. Ultimately, however, she downplayed the impact it would have on her campaign.

"I think there are some positives and there are some things that are maybe not as positive. But in the long run, I don't think it's a huge difference either way in my election."

Nevertheless, in a close race, everything matters and the convention would be too big to ignore if it's in St. Louis. Below is a breakdown of those pros and cons for McCaskill.

PROS

The biggest boost to McCaskill's campaign would be the convention drumming up enthusiasm among Democrats. That is particularly important in St. Louis, where McCaskill will need to run up the score to win. In 2006 when McCaskill defeated then Sen. Jim Talent, she carried the city with a whopping 79 percent.

That enthusiasm could also translate into the St. Louis suburbs, another area where McCaskill must do well. Despite winning St. Louis by such a large margin, McCaskill only carried the surrounding St. Louis County with 55 percent in 2006. She will need to replicate that performance in 2012.

More than half the voting members of Republican National Committee have declared their support for one of the five contenders seeking the chairmanship, and with just a week to go before the January 14 vote, the race has a clear front-runner in Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus.

Still, Priebus has about a third of the 85 votes he would need to win, meaning any of the contenders have a path to victory. RNC history shows that the front-runner doesn't always win in the end (Check out our story for complete round-by-round results from the 2009, 1997 and 1993 RNC contests).

So far, at least 89 committee members have said publicly they back a candidate. We consider an endorsement either a comment in a publication or a release from a candidate's campaign. Missing any names? Email us and let us know.

The standings:

Reince Priebus -- 34 votes
Michael Steele -- 17
Saul Anuzis -- 14
Ann Wagner -- 14
Maria Cino -- 10

After the jump, a full list of endorsers.

It's been called "the invisible primary" -- the period in every presidential election cycle where candidates raise money, put together staffs, and develop strategies for victory long before the first public rallies are held in Iowa and New Hampshire. But this year it has been more invisible than other recent elections. While candidates have already announced their intentions to run for Senate and gubernatorial races, potential presidential contenders are still biding their time.

Even Pres. Obama won't officially commit to a 2012 re-election run, with White House spokesperson Robert Gibbs recently saying on CNN only that "There's a lot of work that's left to do." While there hasn't been an announcement from the president, Gibbs did concede that "most people are planning for that likely to happen, yes" -- which is more than what we've heard from potential Republican challengers.

Though no one has made a definitive move yet, judging by recent history, history shows that the announcements should start any day now.

By this time four years ago, John Edwards had already kicked off his campaign with an announcement speech in New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward. Within a few weeks he was followed by Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who declared their candidacies in web videos. By the end of February they had been joined by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R). Romney followed the lead of the Democrats in making it an online event. McCain made his on Letterman; Huckabee on "Meet the Press."

Eight years ago Democrats lined up to challenge George W. Bush even earlier. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) led the pack with late 2002 declarations of candidacy while Edwards and former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt (D) joined them the first week of January of 2003.

The U.S. economy added 103,000 jobs in December, according to the Labor Department, while the unemployment rate fell to 9.4 percent.

Economists had on average expected a gain of 160,000 jobs, which partly reflected the shockingly high reading from Wednesday's ADP employment report, which measures private-sector job growth based on payroll data. That report stunned forecasters by registering a net gain of 297,000 jobs.

Economists and policymakers had been anxiously awaiting this morning's release as evidence mounted that it could be the strongest private-sector jobs number since before the recession. But forecasters had also sounded an optimistic note in predictions for November's numbers, only to be sorely disappointed by what was then a reading of only 39,000 jobs added.

Though the monthly job-creation estimates attract enormous attention among both investors and the general public, they are precarious numbers. The Labor Department frequently revises by large amounts a month or two later. And because the net change in new jobs per month is a minuscule fraction of all jobs in the country, the numbers are often volatile from month to month.

Good Friday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the political news of the day.

Steelman Catches A Big Fish: Former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman picked up a big endorsement for her Senate bid on Thursday: Gregg Hartley.

Hartley is one of the top lobbyists on Capitol Hill, currently working for Cassidy and Associates. He has deep ties to Missouri, having served as Sen. Roy Blunt's (R) chief of staff as he was ascending the leadership in the House.

In an email to his personal email list -- obtained by Hotline On Call -- Hartley threw his weight behind Steelman. The email had the subject, "Steel Magnolia from Missourah," and in it Hartley wrote that he is ready to back Steelman even though it is unclear whether there will be a contested Republican primary.

"Too early to know for sure if there will be a serious primary or to predict winners," Hartley wrote. "But supporting a solid candidate isn't always that big of a choice. I've made mine."

Hartley also encourages the recipients of the email to visit Steelman's site and to consider making a contribution.

The endorsement is a big boost to Steelman's campaign as she waits to see whether former Sen. Jim Talent (R) jumps into the race. Talent has said he will make a decision sometime this month, but so far seems to be in a holding pattern.

Bloomberg Snowed In: There's new polling out that New York City's response to the holiday blizzard has significantly cut into Mayor Michael Bloomberg's support in the city. A Marist/NY1 poll, released Thursday night, found Bloomberg's approval rating to be 37 percent -- his lowest since taking office. In the last Marist survey from October, Bloomberg's approval rating stood at 50 percent.

The poll is particularly timely as New York prepares for more snow on Friday. Just 21 percent of respondents in the recent poll approved of how Bloomberg handled the Dec. 26 blizzard, and Bloomberg has sought to get out in front of this one.

New York City is only expected to get one to three inches of snow on Friday -- far less than in the previous blizzard -- but it looks like it may take some time for Bloomberg to dig himself out of the last storm.

The 112th Congress may be under way but all the late night hosts are focused on Speaker John Boehner's (R-Ohio) new "over-sized gavel". Stephen Colbert on Boehner's gavel of choice: "I think someone's compensating for his small government."

Jimmy Kimmel has a idea to make the reading of the Constitution more interesting, "It's also very very boring. It's the kind of thing that makes you wish you'd never learned how to read, unless you add the kids from Jersey Shore."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:56 to see Boehner's new gavel in use.

Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus is the clear front-runner in the race to replace Michael Steele, but that doesn't mean Priebus will waltz to victory. Instead, history shows the front-runner in the race to chair the Republican National Committee doesn't always win.

Priebus has at least 33 public endorsements, according to our latest whip count, well on his way to the 85 out of 168 votes he needs to win the chairmanship outright. He has nearly twice the number of public supporters as Steele, his closest rival.

But the election itself is a complicated affair. A candidate must get a majority to win, and there are no requirements that anyone drop out of the race, meaning the contest can continue ad infinitum. The complicated calculus candidates must solve involves asking voters for second-place commitments if and when a voter's preferred candidate drops out. A candidate with few first-place votes can speed ahead when others drop out, while a candidate with a large number of first-place votes can stagnate if there are no second-place votes waiting in the wings.

In two of the three most recent elections for RNC chairman, the candidate who has won the most votes on the first ballot has fallen short on subsequent ballots. In 2009, incumbent chairman Mike Duncan led Steele out of the gate, taking 52 votes on the first ballot to Steele's 46. But Steele steadily grew, picking up support from other candidates and eventually winning on the sixth ballot.

And in 1997, both former New Hampshire Gov. Steve Merrill and New Jersey national committeeman David Norcross led the pack on the first ballot, with 42 votes for Merrill and 41 votes for Norcross. Colorado national committeeman Jim Nicholson finished third on the first ballot, at 23 votes, mired amid a four-candidate second tier. Yet that second tier consolidated around Nicholson, who won when Norcross and Merrill pulled out after the fifth ballot.

"The most important variable in determining the winner of the race is not who has an early block of support, but rather who is most acceptable to the greatest number of voters," wrote Rhode Island GOP chairman Giovanni Cicione in a memo to committee members earlier this week. That factor, Cicione argued, bodes well for his preferred candidate -- former Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis.

Fox News host Bill O'Reilly will interview Pres. Obama on Super Bowl Sunday, Fox News sources confirmed.

Details about when the Feb. 6 interview will be taped and when it will air are still unclear.

Despite his administration's criticism of Fox News, the president has appeared on the network several times. In March of last year, Obama was interviewed by Bret Baier in what turned into a highly contentious exchange about health care reform.

Obama also gave a lengthy interview to O'Reilly during the campaign in September 2008. O'Reilly interviewed Obama and aired it in a four part segment during the Republican National Convention.

National Journal's own Major Garrett was the last FOX broadcaster to interview Obama during Super Bowl Sunday -- the last time the network had the rights to the game, in 2008.

Fully half the voting members of Republican National Committee have declared their support for one of the five contenders seeking the chairmanship, and with just over a week to go before the January 14 vote, the race has a clear front-runner in Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus.

Still, Priebus has about a third of the 85 votes he would need to win, meaning any of the contenders have a path to victory. On Thursday, former Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis flexed his muscle, announcing endorsements from four prominent committee members.

So far, at least 84 committee members have publicly said they back a candidate. We consider an endorsement either a comment in a publication or a release from a candidate's campaign. Missing any names? Email us and let us know.

The standings:

Reince Priebus -- 33 votes
Michael Steele -- 17
Saul Anuzis -- 14
Ann Wagner -- 12
Maria Cino -- 8

After the jump, a full list of endorsers.

Looks like Democrats have their first 2012 opposition research clipping for New York freshman Rep. Michael Grimm (R).

In one of his first interviews since being sworn in, Grimm brushed off the suggestion that he was being hypocritical for accepting government-provided health insurance while calling for the repeal of Pres. Obama's health care reform.

"What am I, not supposed to have health care?" Grimm told the New York Daily News (the article hasn't appeared online, only in print). "It's practicality. I'm not going to become a burden for the state because I don't have health care and, God forbid I get into an accident and I can't afford the operation...That can happen to anyone."

Whether freshman Republicans who campaigned adamantly against health care reform will take government-provided health insurance has become a top campaign issue already for Democrats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is keeping tabs on which of these members take insurance, and it appears to have press releases ready for them.

Grimm is likely to be one such Republican. During his race against Rep. Michael McMahon (D-N.Y.), Grimm signed a pledge calling for the repeal of health care reform and made it part of his campaign.

It remains to be seen whether this issue and attack line will have the legs to make it all the way until 2012. However, with Republican pledging to attack the reform package piece by piece, it is likely that Democrats won't stop needling Republicans on this issue.