West Virginia Wrestles With Special Election
A fast-developing race is off to a slow start in West Virginia.
Now that the state Supreme Court of Appeals has ruled that a special gubernatorial election must be held this year and acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) has set Oct. 4 as the date, the state has moved on to yet another sticky issue: whether to choose the parties' nominees by nominating convention or to change the law so that there is a primary.
While the Senate race to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D) in 2010 also began with confusion and legislation, there was much less uncertainty when it came to candidates. But this time, there is no superstar of then-Gov. Joe Manchin's (D) caliber and no self-funder like businessman John Raese (R). As a result the Democratic field is muddled and the Republican field very far from settled.
On Tuesday, Tomblin asked the legislature to replace the convention with a June 20 primary, but it is not yet clear whether the legislation will pass. How the nominees are chosen will affect perspective candidates' chances, and until that decision is finalized, the race is truly up in the air on both sides.
"The only certainty right now is that everything is uncertain," said West Virginia pollster Mark Blankenship. The sentiment that the field is wide open was confirmed by an automated poll released this week, in which 1105 respondents weighed in on 16 distinct matchups pitting four Democrats against four Republicans.
Eyeing the race on the Democratic side are Tomblin, state Treasurer John Purdue (D), state House Speaker Rick Thompson (D), Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D), acting state Senate Pres. Jeff Kessler (D), and state Sen. Brooks McCabe (D).
When nominees are chosen via a convention, often the more extreme elements of the parties have a greater voice, benefiting the more liberal Democrats and more conservative Republicans. The prevailing wisdom among West Virginia political observers is that Purdue and Thompson would benefit most on the Democratic side from a convention, both because they have union support and strong networks within the party.
But in a Democratic primary, it looks like Tennant has an early advantage. She has a leg up on name recognition, in large part because for years she served as a television anchor in both Clarksburg, a big market in the northern part of the state, and Charleston, the state's biggest media market. Though Tomblin is in a high-profile position, it hasn't necessarily helped him. He could also face problems because he comes from the Southern part of the state. No governor has been elected from southern West Virginia since 1962, and some in the rest of the state hold the south, known for political corruption, in low regard.
"I think Earl Ray Tomblin has probably not done a lot of favors for himself in the last few months," said Blankenship," both due to his difficult situation and the way he has handled it.
That being said, Blankenship doesn't think any of the other Democratic candidates have made great strides in the past few months. "Nobody has seized the momentum. Nobody has seized the high ground. I think a part of that is they're waiting to see how it all shakes out," he said.
Because of Tomblin's elevation to acting governor, Kessler's promotion to acting Senate president, and Thompson's role as Speaker, many of the candidates are the same people figuring out the primary versus convention conundrum - adding another wrinkle to the process. Additionally, a footnote in the Supreme Court decision says there is no such thing as an acting governor, and therefore no such thing as an acting Senate president, leading some state senators to threaten to challenge anything the Senate passes. As one West Virginia Democratic consultant put it, "It's just ripe for political shenanigans."
While the large Democratic field seems to be forming, Republicans appear to be in disarray so far. Sources in the state think it's likely that if a convention is held, more conservative candidates will enter the race. While former Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R) is currently the most prominent Republican candidate some in the party consider her too liberal, which could make her extremely vulnerable in a convention. So if there is a convention, it would open up the possibility of a self-funder getting in the race. At this point, potential Republican candidates include state Sen. Clark Barnes and Putnam County Prosecutor Mark Sorsaia (R), and possibly state GOP chair Mike Stuart (R) if there's a convention. People are also talking about former state Sen. Steve Harrison (R) or the up and coming Delegate Troy Andes (R).
Meanwhile, if Raese had any lingering desire to swoop in again and run for governor, a poll that came out on Tuesday may have dissuaded him: Raese's favorable to unfavorable rating with West Virginia voters was 30 percent to 52 percent.
For now, nothing is certain until the Legislature decides how to choose the nominees. While they seem to be leaning toward a primary, until then it's a waiting game again in West Virginia.
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