February 2011

After months of speculation and nearly a week after one of the most prolific Twitter feeds in history came to an end, Atlantic's Alexis Madrigal revealed the identity of @MayorEmanuel Monday afternoon: Punk Planet magazine founder Dan Sinker, a journalism professor at Columbia College in Chicago who was, as Madrigal says, "made to write this feed."

Sinker has the trash-talking background from his days as the editor of Punk Planet -- a music, culture and politics magazine grounded in the punk rock attitude -- he is from Chicago, and he teaches journalism classes focused on new media. He also recently created the Chicago Mayoral Scorecard, an online aggregator for news on the Chicago mayor's race, keeping him constantly in touch with the latest on the campaign.

"My wife has asked me, 'Why did you actually start tweeting?' And for the life of me I can't remember," Sinker told The Atlantic. "I remember I was at home. I think everyone had gone to bed. And I remembered, 'Oh, I have that account. This might be kind of funny.'"

Sinker's secret identity, writes Madrigal, "was known only by his wife, a small circle of friends, and one Chicago Public Schools teacher, Seth Lavin, who figured out Sinker's identity when Sinker used his personal bit.ly account to shorten a link that @MayorEmanuel later tweeted. Lavin kept it mum. Others came close to identifying him, Sinker said. An intern at the Wall Street Journal was onto him early, as was a reporter at Crain's Chicago Business. But no one could muster any proof."

Nebraska Treasurer Don Stenberg (R) will officially enter the Nebraska Senate race tomorrow, a Nebraska Republican source has confirmed, joining two other candidates in the race against Sen. Ben Nelson (D).

Stenberg will compete with Attorney General Jon Bruning -- the perceived front-runner on the GOP side -- and Republican Pat Flynn in the race for the party's nomination. The winner is likely to have a leg up on Nelson, at least initially, in the very red Cornhusker State.

Stenberg is no stranger to Senate races, having run on three previous occasions, in 1996, 2000, and 2006. 2000 was the only year he was able to secure the GOP nomination, when he narrowly lost to Nelson.

"Nebraska's next United States Senator needs to be a genuine, lifelong conservative," Stenberg says on his already-active campaign website.

That's an implicit shot at Bruning, who wrote editorials espousing liberal viewpoints when he was in college, as Hotline On Call has reported.

Stenberg will make his announcement at 9:30 a.m. local time Tuesday.

Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) says he plans on running for re-election in 2012, but his senior colleague, Daniel Inouye (D), is expressing concern about Akaka's commitment -- and his chances.

In a recent interview, Inouye offered an unusually candid assessment of Akaka's glacial fundraising pace and warned that there won't be much Inouye could do to help.

"In the last election, 2006, when Danny Akaka ran, I was able to help him in six figures. This time I doubt that," said Inouye last Thursday on PBS Hawaii's "Insights".

"If he should decide to run, I will support him, but now circumstances have changed. In the last election I was able to concentrate fully on Sen. Akaka," Inouye said. "But now I am president pro tem, I'm chairman of the Appropriations Committee and I'm a member of the leadership council, and as such they expect me as one of the leaders of the Senate to help all Democrats, not just one. And I've been doing that even during my own re-election time."

Inouye provided a big boost to Akaka's fundraising in 2006 as he fended off a primary challenge from former Rep. Ed Case. This time, Akaka has a little over $66,000 in his campaign account, according to his most recent fundraising report. And he's not known for his speedy fundraising ability. Inouye said Akaka would need to raise $3 million to be competitive this cycle.

"I've also noted that he has not had fundraisers, and according to the disclosure laws, whatever he has is less than a hundred thousand," Inouye said.

Former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) -- who would be the strongest potential GOP challenger to Akaka -- said in November she would take six months before deciding whether she will run.

If Akaka does not run, Inouye mentioned several Democrats as possibilities for the race, including former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, Reps. Mazie Hirono and Colleen Hanabusa, and Lieutenant Gov. Brian Schatz.

If you're guessing whether former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) will run for president or not, it's important to look at how often Huckabee is consulting with influential conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats, the chair of his 2008 campaign in Iowa.

And lately, it doesn't look like Huckabee is in serious consultation with Vander Plaats about a potential bid, the latest sign that he may be leaning against another White House run.

"We talk or e-mail periodically, the last time being a few weeks back," Vander Plaats told the Des Moines Register on Sunday. "But we have nothing specific planned. I respect that his book tour takes precedence."

Huckabee arrived in Iowa Sunday for a two-day swing to promote his new book, but the Register reports he has no plans to meet with Vander Plaats or his other top 2008 advisers.

Vander Plaats said his own schedule prevented him from attending a meeting with Huckabee Sunday but that any meeting would have been brief and similar to a chat Huckabee had with 2008 supporters from eastern Iowa.

If Huckabee runs, Iowa will once again be crucial to his success, given his victory there in 2008 along with his appeal to conservative voters who have a significant influence in the caucuses.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is apparently breaking with environmentalists, penning a letter to President Obama urging him to consider "economic repercussions" before issuing regulations on greenhouse gases, the Columbus Dispatch reports. The decision puts Brown, who is up for reelection in 2012, on the side of many Ohio manufacturing and farming businesses who fear the regulations will hurt the industries and may also be a forward looking move with election implications in mind.

As the Dispatch story points out, while Brown has often expressed fears that the EPA could seriously damage Ohio industry, last year he opposed an effort to prohibit the EPA from issuing greenhouse-gas rules.

In National Journal's recently released 2010 Vote Ratings, Brown finished in a tie for the most liberal senator. But if there is an issue that Brown may be inclined to move toward the middle on, it is likely the environment. Brown also opposed cap and trade legislation that passed the House in the 111th Congress.

Republicans performed very in well in Ohio during the 2010 election, and are bullish about their chances of knocking off Brown in 2012. That said, no Republican has officially come forward to challenge the incumbent and there is not an obvious potential Republican front-runner in the picture.

Lieutenant Gov. Mary Taylor and state Treasurer Josh Mandel are two Republican names being mentioned as possible challengers.

Libyan leader Muammar el-Qaddafi is reportedly looking for a place to live in exile. Jay Leno may have found the perfect place, "The only offer from Chile, they say they have an empty coal mine they can rent him. Sleeps 33 very comfortably."

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker gets caught in a prank phone call.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:35 Qaddafi resorts to infomercials to make money.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) favorability among likely Republican voters in Iowa has dropped since late 2009, according to a new poll conducted for the Des Moines Register.

Palin is still viewed favorably by a majority of likely Republican voters, but only 65 percent of likely Republican voters view Palin favorably, down from 71 percent in a November 2009 poll. Within that group, the percentage who view Palin very favorably has dropped from 27 percent in 2009 to 18 percent in the current survey.

Meanwhile, the percentage of likely Republican voters who view Palin unfavorably has jumped from 23 percent in November 2009 to 30 percent in the latest survey. Within that group, the percentage of likely Republican voters who view Palin very unfavorably has doubled from 5 percent in November 2009 to 10 percent now.

Overall, the numbers show that the percentage of likely Republicans who view Palin as mostly favorable or unfavorable has remained relatively constant, while the percentage who view her as very favorable/unfavorable have undergone more notable shifts.

Palin has not been as active in the state when compared with other prospective 2012 presidential candidates, holding fewer meetings with local activists regarding a potential campaign.

It's worth noting that the sample size of the survey is low and its margin of error is on the high side. The poll of 189 Republican likely voters was conducted Feb. 13-16 by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register and has a margin of error of +/- 7.1 percentage points.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

Wave elections are only going to be more common. National Journal's Vote Ratings show 17 Democrats who voted more often on the conservative side of contentious votes lost their seats in 2010. That tells you even an independent voting record isn't enough to save an incumbent. Look for more party homogeny in the future - something that's not great for governing by compromise.

Who is Sen. John McCain? He's a maverick, alright, but a maverick who stands opposed to whomever he sees as his biggest rival more than for or against a specific party. That's why he voted so often against George W. Bush, and landed in the middle of our Vote Ratings, during the middle part of the last decade. Now that Pres. Obama's his chief rival, McCain's record puts him at the conservative extreme of the Senate.

Meanwhile, the Vote Ratings also showed that many of the most vulnerable senators had the most moderate voting records. A notable exception: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who tied for the most liberal voting record. Yet Brown still has no announced challenger and there is no obvious one in sight.

Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), who faces an uphill reelection climb, isn't helping himself much. One would think Ensign would do anything he can to avoid bringing up memories of his sex scandal, but this week, he came out in favor of legalized prostitution. If he wants voters to forget about his troubled past, that's not the way to do it. It seems almost impossible, but the 2012 Senate race in Nevada might even outdo the state's 2010 version in the drama department.

The label "bipartisan" continues to be as good as a four-letter word in certain political circles. Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) called out Sen. Richard Lugar (R) for being too willing to work with Democrats while announcing his Senate candidacy Tuesday, citing Lugar's work on New START -- which won the support of 13 GOP senators, including conservative stalwarts like Sens. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) and Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) -- among other issues. Mourdock wrote in his announcement that "pork barrel spending, political back-scratching and bipartisanship have carried us to the brink of bankruptcy." So much for being ready to work across the aisle.

Amid reports that Newt Gingrich will announce within the next 10 days whether he's running for president, a spokesman told National Journal today that Gingrich remains on track to make a decision soon.

Gingrich has said repeatedly in recent months that he would announce whether he's forming an exploratory committee for president in late February or early March, said spokesman Rick Tyler.

"So next week would be early March," he said. "We're on the same timeline."

He declined to say whether the former speaker of the House has made his decision, or what that decision is.

"Newt will make up his mind in his own time," Tyler said.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported today that Gingrich will announce the creation of his exploratory committee within 10 days. The Associated Press also reported that he will announce his intention in the next two weeks.

Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) says he won't allow the Hawkeye State to get bumped in the 2012 presidential nomination process.

"We will be first," Branstad told Hotline On Call Saturday at the National Governors Association Winter Meeting in Washington.

Florida's primary is currently scheduled for January 31, 2012. While the Republican National Committee wants the state to move its primary back to protect the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, state Republicans have come out in favor of holding the primary early, putting the shape of the national primary calendar up in the air.

If Florida does not move its primary date, it will take place ahead of the first in the nation Iowa Caucuses, tentatively slated for February 6, 2012.

But Branstad says Iowa will do what it takes to preserve its first in the nation status.

"We'll do what we did four years ago and we'll move it up," Branstad said.

Eliot Cutler, the 2010 independent gubernatorial candidate that lost by less than two percent of the vote to now-Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) told Hotline On Call Saturday that it's "unlikely" that he will challenge Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) in 2012.

While he did not definitively rule out a future run for any office, Cutler did not sound at all like a Senate candidate, saying he has "no desire to live in Washington."

Cutler is teaming up with former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (I) to headline a "No Labels" telephone town hall on Monday, sparking intrigue about his political future.

"The call will include remarks about national and state issues as well as an introduction to the No Labels movement," according to an email promoting the event.

Crist was present at the launch of "No Labels" -- a 501(c)(4) organization frustrated with partisan politics -- in New York late last year. Cutler, meanwhile, has kept a relatively low profile since the election.

"I've been very clear in Maine I don't intend to leave the state," said Cutler, adding that he intends to stay involved politically.

What about a possible gubernatorial bid in 2014?

Cutler would not rule it out, but said it "depends on a lot of circumstances."

Democratic Governors Association Chairman Martin O'Malley may not like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie''s (R) policies, but he does respect him -- as a comedian.

In an interview with Hotline On Call at the National Governors Association Winter Meeting in Washington Saturday, the Maryland governor said the dispute over public employee unions and collective bargaining rights in Wisconsin won't bring about an improved climate for business. And, more broadly, the fighting between the GOP governors and the unions won't help businesses either, he said, digging at Christie.

"It's not the sort of behavior that brings about improved performance or improved profits in the private sector. And it might make for great theater, or in Chris Christie's case for the best stand-up routine that the RGA has, but it's not the sort of stuff that brings people together to solve problems or inspires consumer or business confidence in one state." O'Malley said.

During a Friday DGA panel on competitiveness and job creation, Democratic governors discussed the practice of attempting to steal business from other states -- something Christie has recently done, traveling to Illinois in an attempt to lure state businesses to New Jersey, following a record tax increase in the Prairie State.

"We were talking about the fact that when you poach from other states and spend a lot of taxpayer dollars to bring in sort of your marquee trophy, as if governors go out on hunting expeditions in the great wild, that that doesn't really add a lot to one's economy," O'Malley said in reference to the Friday DGA panel discussion.

"I think for the most part, we are far more focused on growing the economic strengths we have and improving the job creating potential of businesses that are already in our state," he added.

O'Malley said that Republican Governors Association Chairman Rick Perry "was talking like the big game hunter, going through the target-rich environment of California" at a Friday panel discussion.

The second-term governor smiled when asked about his supposed rivalry with Christie. O'Malley said he was looking forward to seeing Christie, and that the two sit next to each other at the NGA because of when their respective states joined the union.

This post was updated to correct O'Malley Dillon and Gaspard's positions

Democratic National Committee political director Clyde Williams is leaving his job this week, senior party officials tell The Hotline, the second top DNC staffer to leave in recent weeks amid an ongoing personnel shuffle.

Party chairman Tim Kaine told DNC members on Saturday Williams would leave this week. Williams, who had what one source characterized as an "abrasive" relationship with DNC leadership, will return to his native New York and will not join President Obama's re-election campaign.

DNC executive director Jen O'Malley Dillon will soon leave the DNC. O'Malley Dillon will decamp to Chicago, where she will serve as Obama's deputy campaign manager. Other senior DNC staffers are expected to leave for Obama's re-election bid as well.

In their place, Obama will install the remnants of the White House political shop. O'Malley Dillon will be replaced by White House political director Patrick Gaspard, and others from the White House will follow Gaspard to DNC headquarters.

As protests continue throughout the Middle East and Northern Africa, most attention will be focused on Libya. With Pres. Obama condemning the violence against protesters, many political leaders are debating the Administration's response and whether it went far enough. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), one of the first senators to travel to the region since the turmoil began, will be live from Cairo, Egypt on NBC's "Meet the Press" and CNN's "State of the Union."

"Meet the Press" will also dive into state politics with Wis. Gov. Scott Walker (R) to discuss his controversial budget proposal that has reignited a labor movement. Moderator David Gregory will then discuss the wider implications of the new labor movement and how it will affect the '12 White House race with Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) and AFL-CIO Pres. Richard Trumka.

CBS' "Face the Nation" sits down for the full hour with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) to discuss his budget policies and how other governors can successfully balance dealing with union leaders and cutting budgets statewide. "Fox News Sunday" sits down with two potential Republican presidential nominees, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), to discuss the current state fiscal battles as well as their possible White House campaigns.

Get the complete listings after the jump.

Even as several of his Oregon papers have called for Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.) to resign, the seven-term congressman is showing no signs of stepping aside, and even filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday to begin organizing a reelection campaign for 2012.

Wu's erratic behavior in the weeks leading up to the November election led his staff to try to stage an intervention and urged him to seek medical attention. In one especially strange episode, Wu emailed his staff in the middle of the night photos of himself in a tiger costume for Halloween. After the Portland Oregonian's extensive reporting into his strange actions, Wu finally broke his silence this week, telling "Good Morning America" he was seeking counseling and also later admitted he had once taken prescription pain killers from a campaign donor.

But even his brief admissions and mea culpa haven't stopped Oregon editorial boards to call for him to step aside, both for reasons best for the district and to focus on his own health. But his FEC filing this week suggests not only does Wu intend to finish out his term, but to seek an eighth. While the statement of organization doesn't mean he is definitely running agin, whether he changes his own mind or is eventually pressured not to, it is a signal he intends to soldier on.

On Thursday, the Beaverton Valley Times wrote that "Wu's troubles should force him to seek an immediate leave of absence from Congress or resign from office altogether" but that they did express hope he "receives professional help and recovers." The Times also wrote that Wu's latest actions weren't "all that surprising" though, as the Portland congressman has been rumored to have eccentric tendencies for years, but nothing as extreme as what happened last fall.

This post was updated at 5:51 p.m.

Washington Post conservative columnist Kathleen Parker is out as co-host of "Parker Spitzer." Parker's co-host, former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D), will stay on to helm an "ensemble format" program. CNN executive VP Ken Jautz announced this afternoon that the changes are effective Monday.

Newly titled "In the Arena," Spitzer will be joined on the program by E.D. Hill and Will Cain, along with newsmakers and contributors "within and outside the CNN family."

"We have been pleased with how the 8pm hour has become a centerpiece of substantive, policy-oriented conversation," said Jautz. "The program will provide context and analysis through balanced and thoughtful discussions and interviews with a wide range of guests and newsmakers who cumulatively represent various points of view."

In the memo to staff, Jautz said the decision for Parker to leave was hers.

"After bringing viewers a new 8pm show on CNN, I have decided to return to a schedule that will allow me to focus more on my syndicated newspaper column and other writings," said Parker in a statement. "While I am extremely proud of the show we created, and the subject matter and level of discourse Parker Spitzer promoted every night, it was a difficult decision to scale back my column a few months ago and, with the show going in a new direction, it is a good time to move on."

"Kathleen will continue to appear on CNN occasionally to provide her insights and commentary," Jautz added.

As for Spitzer, he wished Parker "all the best" and said it has been a "joy" to work with her. "I continue to be a huge fan of the wisdom that jumps from her written work," wrote Spitzer, "and the wit, charm and insight she brings to all that she does."

Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert (R) announced Friday that he is entering the race to succeed retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas).

"Making tough decisions in business and as Mayor was not easy, but I made the hard calls that are so lacking in Washington right now," Leppert said in a statement posted on his website. "In the U.S. Senate I'll help create jobs, be a watchdog for taxpayers, fight wasteful spending, reduce the debt and stop the President's tax increases."

Leppert -- who is a Hutchison ally and was said to only be interested in the race if Hutchison retired -- resigned his post as mayor Wednesday. Political observers had anticipated a Leppert run since Hutchison announced her retirement plans in January.

Leppert joins a crowded field for the GOP nomination. Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R), former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams (R), and Texas Railroad Commissioners Michael Williams (R) and Elizabeth Ames Jones (R) are already in the race. Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (R) is expected to launch a campaign within the next few months. Dewhurst is considered a heavy favorite in the race, thanks to his statewide name recognition and great personal wealth.

Democratic governors in Washington for the National Governors Association Winter Meeting met with President Obama at the White House Friday morning, and while jobs and innovation were among the topics of discussion, the ongoing dispute over public employee unions in Wisconsin that is spreading to other states was not.

"We were focused today on the things we can do together to create jobs, like coming together to advocate with our business leaders for a transportation reauthorization bill so we can build that infrastructure," said DGA chairman Martin O'Malley, addressing reporters at the White House after the meeting. "We didn't talk about whatever it is they're doing in Wisconsin," he added.

"I think most of us see that as a distraction, really, from the most important work that we can do which is creating jobs," he said, when asked again about whether the spreading battle over public employee unions came up in the meeting.

When asked if the meeting included a discussion on pension obligations more broadly, O'Malley responded, "not really, we spent this day talking about the things we need to do to create jobs."

"This was really an hour where we were focused on jobs," he said.

"The spirit is one of unrelenting optimism and faith in the people we serve that we're going to be able to make the tough decisions necessary in order to create jobs," said O'Malley, when asked about the mood of the Democratic governors after the November election.

The Census Bureau rolled out county-level data on five more states Thursday. These states' data further emphasize that the Southwest and Mountain West's fast growth was largely driven by the Hispanic boom.

-- Nevada's population exploded in the past decade, growing by 35%. Hispanics drove much of that growth: the Latino population grew by 82%, and Hispanics now make up more than a quarter of the state population. The Asian population more than doubled, and Asians now are 8% of the state's population. Whites are only 54% of the state's population today.

Four fifths of the state's growth came in Clark County, home to Las Vegas and its suburbs, although Reno also grew by nearly a quarter. The state gained a congressional seat and has a Republican governor and a Democrat-controlled state legislature. It is likely the two sides will compromise by drawing a map that gives each party two seats. Freshman Rep. Joe Heck's (R) marginal district could be stripped of some of its more liberal suburbs and moved into more rural territory, creating a solidly Democratic district with those suburbs. The state may also have to create a Hispanic-majority district in and around Las Vegas, depending on whether there are enough Hispanic citizens over age 18 to cobble together a district.

-- Missouri's population grew by 7%, not enough to avoid losing a House seat. Unlike in other Midwest states, the African American population actually grew faster than the white population; blacks are now 11.5% of the state population. St. Louis lost population, meaning its congressional district will need to expand, and as the district is African American-majority and is protected under the Voting Rights Act, it will have to expand by finding more African Americans nearby.

Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) is taking a close look at a potential bid for Sen. Richard Lugar's (R) seat, according to sources familiar with his thinking, as the prospect of facing a much more conservative contender grows.

An Indiana Democratic source familiar with Donnelly's thinking confirmed that Donnelly is looking more closely at the Senate race than he is at a potential gubernatorial contest. "He's taking a very serious look at the Senate race," the source said.

State Democratic Party chairman Dan Parker, in Washington for a meeting of the Democratic National Committee, has heard the same thing. "He has not indicated to me that the Senate race would be out of the question," Parker said.

Democrats in Indiana need to field prominent contenders for both the Senate contest, in which Lugar is running for a seventh term, and the governor's race, an open seat contest. So far, Democrats have seen several high-profile contenders say they will not run for office, most recently Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel and former Rep. Brad Ellsworth.

Without Weinzapfel, Ellsworth or former Sen. Evan Bayh in the mix, Democrats are focusing on two names that have emerged as possible front-runners for the two 2012 contests: Donnelly and former state House Speaker John Gregg, who is considering a gubernatorial bid.

But Democrats are cautioning against the possibility of a bruising primary battle in races for Senate or governor.

Progressive activist Marcy Winograd will make her third try for California's 36th District official on Saturday, as she announces her candidacy for the special election to succeed Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.).

The high school English teacher tweeted Friday morning that she'll kick off her race Saturday at 10 a.m. at Fox Drug in Torrance, Calif.

Winograd, who unsuccessfully challenged Harman in primaries in 2006 and 2010, joins Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and Secretary of State Debra Bowen as Democrats in the race. Renaldo Beach City Attorney Mike Webb is the only announced Republican so far. Under the state's new primary law, if no one candidate gets 50 percent in the all-party primary, the top-two vote getters, regardless of party, will advance to a run-off.

The fiercely liberal Winograd's entrance will dramatically change the dynamics of the race, which until now was seen as a two-woman race between Hahn and Bowen. In an interview with Hotline On Call earlier this month, Winograd had said she would get in the race if she didn't see the slate of candidates pushing a progressive agenda, particularly on issues relating to Palestine and Israel and ending the war in Afghanistan. In 2010, Winograd got 41 percent in a primary against Harman who's resigning to head the Woodrow Wilson Center, and in 2006 she polled 38 percent.

Winograd explained her decision to get in to the Los Angeles Daily Breeze, saying she "felt that we need a real progressive in the race, somebody who has been advocating for a long, long time that we need to transition from a war economy to a green economy."

Former Governor Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., gives credit to the "Colbert-bump" and says he's, "seriously thinking about," running for president.

Senator Rand Paul, R-Ky., tries to revive 80s fashion on the "Late Show."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:12, Paul doesn't listen to Senator Al Franken's, D-Minn., advice.

Let us know if you think Paul should have followed Franken's advice in our Late Night Poll.

The news that Assemblywoman Jane Corwin (R) donated to Dede Scozzafava's ill-fated 2009 campaign doesn't appear to be dealing a substantial blow yet to her GOP bid in the New York 26th special election.

New York Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long told Hotline On Call that the $1,000 donation to her colleague in Albany was a "bad investment" but didn't think it would cost her support among his party. And on Thursday night, the GOP nominee also got the unanimous backing from the Monroe County Conservative Party after addressing their meeting.

Republicans have dismissed Corwin's donation as simply a routine donation to a colleague, and have also pointed out that other high-ranking Republicans, including now-House Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor, also gave to Scozzafava before her support collapsed and conservatives began lining up behind Doug Hoffman, who earned the Conservative Party nomination.

With at least two candidates who didn't receive the Republican nod this week weighing independent bids, there are still several factors that have so far prevented a conservative fissure that could hand the Democrats a victory as happened when Bill Owens won the New York-23rd district special election in 2009.

Corwin and state and national Republicans have learned from the mistakes Scozzafava made, and out of the gate she's made every effort to reach out to the state's other ballot lines she needs to consolidate support on the right. The Conservative Party seems ready to endorse her - as it did in her Assembly campaigns - and as she pointed out as she accepted the GOP nomination, the group had named her the 2nd most conservative member in the Assembly.

Florida Senate Pres. Mike Haridopolos (R) will get a letter of admonition for the state Senate Rules Committee, but will not have to pay a fine for his failure to accurately disclose his finances, according to the Palm Beach Post.

The GOP-dominated panel deliberated for about 10 minutes today before making their unanimous decision. Rules Committee Chair John Thrasher (R) is close with Haridopolos and had already endorsed his campaign for Senate, as had another committee member, Sen. Anitere Flores (R). When asked whether his voting on the matter represented a conflict of interest, Thrasher said, "Hell, no." Flores also said she felt there was no conflict.

Haridopolos had previously submitted a written apology regarding the charges.

The letter is unlikely to be the last Haridopolos hears about the ethics violation. It's an issue likely to come up on the campaign trail: though he's currently the only Republican in the race, he's certain to face a crowded primary. Rep. Connie Mack (R), former state House Maj. Leader Adam Hasner (R) and former Sen. George LeMieux (R) are all considering bids.

And state Democrats are equally unlikely to let the issue die.

"Clearly the Republicans have whitewashed Mike Haridopolos' pleading guilty to breaking Florida law by giving him what doesn't even amount to a slap on the wrist," said Florida Democratic Party spokesperson Eric Jotkoff. "But the fact remains that Mike Haridopolos' questionable ethics and many sweetheart deals will remain an issue as he run for US Senate."

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) is defending his extensive travel schedule and rejecting any comparison to the travel former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) did in the lead up to his 2008 presidential campaign.

"I'm going out promoting the commonwealth, while he was out making us a laughingstock," Patrick said today according to a Boston Globe story. Patrick was referring to Romney's travel in preparation for his 2008 White House bid.

And as Hotline editor Reid Wilson has written on this blog, Patrick, who is stepping up his national profile, is worth keeping an eye on as a potential successor to Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine, should Kaine leave to run for Senate in Virginia. Patrick has dismissed speculation that he is being considered for the position.

But regardless of whether he goes that route, Patrick could be a valuable surrogate for Pres. Obama in 2012. And if Romney emerges as the nominee, the Bay State connection could mean a lot more barbs from Patrick directed at the former Massachusetts governor down the road.

As we watch Republican legislators and governors in Wisconsin, Ohio and Indiana attempt to navigate showdowns in which they find themselves at odds with labor unions, it behooves one to know that the GOP's stance on unions has not always been this way. As found in the American Presidency Project, the 1952 GOP platform made several guarantees to labor. Labor unions had the right to establish a 'union shop', the right to strike, and the right to free collective bargaining.

The 1952 platform even opposed Pres. Truman's "seizure of plants and industries to force the settlement of labor disputes by claims of inherent Constitutional powers." Part of the advocation of union protection by the GOP may have been aimed as a political attack on the Truman administration for how it handled the US Steel strike, but the 1956 platform also reinforced union rights during the Eisenhower administration.

The relationship between unions and the GOP was not as strong as it was for Democrats but the aggressive anti-union rhetoric in the party platform was not wholly there. What changed? The transformation and entrance of Ronald Reagan fundamentally altered the GOP's relationship with unions. Long before the breaking of PATCO, Reagan campaigned first as the spokesperson for GE around the country then second as a celebrity, and he gave his 'Time for Choosing' or 'The Speech' as many Republicans call it.

On October 27th, 1964, Reagan gave a rousing speech that became the framework for the GOP. He argued for individualism, less government, and the private sector. He linked the size of the federal government to costing "constitutional safeguards." 'Time for Choosing' was monumental moment for Reagan's career and helped launch him to the California governorship and eventually the White House.

During the last several weeks, events in foreign policy (revolutions in the Middle East), fiscal policy (disputes over measures affecting organized labor in Indiana and Wisconsin) and now social policy (Pres. Obama's decision to instruct the Justice Department to stop defending DOMA) have prompted several potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates to jump in head first on the issues dominating the news cycle.

And a review of which candidates have been the most vocal on each issue offers a few clues about how the Republican primary campaign may look.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was out of the gate early in leveling criticism at Obama over his decision on DOMA on Wednesday, saying at a forum in Washington that he was "disappointed" in the decision.

"Help me identify 100,000 Americans willing to stand and defend marriage against this outrageous assault on our values," Huckabee also wrote in an email to supporters.

If Huckabee runs, perhaps no other candidate will address social issues as often as the former governor. Huckabee had harsh words for Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels last year after Daniels proposed a truce on social issues. Earlier this week, when asked again about Daniels, Huckabee was less confrontational, but he nonetheless underscores in his new book his belief that there is no way to disconnect social and economic issues.

Three western states with growing populations received their detailed Census data this week, and all three saw their growth fueled by suburban and exurban communities as rural areas lost population. Colorado, Washington and Oregon all will have their maps drawn by both parties (Washington has a bipartisan commission), so expect neither Democrats nor Republicans to benefit greatly from the new maps.

-- Colorado grew by 16.9% in the last decade, a fast clip but not enough to gain another House seat. About half of the state's growth came from Hispanics, who now make up about one fifth of the state's population. Liberal Denver and its Democratic-leaning northern suburbs grew at a steady pace, but some of the state's fastest growth was in and around conservative Colorado Springs and in Denver's more conservative south suburbs. El Paso County, which includes Colorado Springs, surpassed Denver County to become the largest in the state. With split control of redistricting, Colorado in the past has often wound up with court-drawn maps. This time it seems likely this will happen again.

The state's population continues to urbanize, with four fifths of Coloradans living near I-25, which runs south from Fort Collins through Denver, Colorado Springs and Pueblo, meaning that the districts of newly elected Republican Reps. Scott Tipton on the Western Slope and Cory Gardner, whose district includes Democratic-trending Fort Collins in the north as well as much of the very conservative eastern High Plains, which are losing population, may need to expand.

While demonstrations and rallies in Madison, Wisconsin have marked the confrontation between newly elected GOP Gov. Scott Walker and state employees and teachers over union benefit cuts and collective bargaining rights, Democrats and Republicans both welcome and believe they can score political points off this kind of showdown, according to the results of this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Donald Rumsfeld stops by the "Daily Show" to discuss the dangers of "certainty with power."

Jimmy Fallon, on Sen. Harry Reid, R-Nev., wanting to end legalized prostitution in Nevada, "He said he wants to keep prostitution where it belongs, Washington D.C."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast Forward to 0:33 when Jon Stewart addresses the elephant in the room.

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump.

In the battle over federal spending for the remainder of this fiscal year, nearly two-thirds of the Republican operatives surveyed in this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll believe that it isn't in their party's interest to see a government shutdown, while most Democrats feel such a confrontation could benefit them.

The politician who once best exemplified the idea of a "maverick" independent has shifted so far to the right that he is now tied for the title of the Senate's most conservative member, according to National Journal's 2010 vote ratings.

According to a comprehensive examination of 96 Senate votes taken in 2010, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., along with seven of his colleagues, voted most often on the conservative side. His 89.7 composite conservative score ties him with stalwarts like Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., and gives him a more conservative score than Sens. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., and Jeff Sessions, R-Ala.

McCain's shift is emblematic of the Republican Party's shift rightward and of the profound changes that NJ's latest Vote Ratings reveal in Congress. A detailed analysis, including an interactive chart that will allow readers to examine and manipulate the data, will be available tomorrow.

In the early part of this decade, McCain was far closer to the ideological middle of the chamber. From 2002 to 2006, he bounced between the 44th- and 49th-most conservative member, giving him the maverick title. His 89.7 composite conservative score is the farthest to the right of any year he has served in the Senate. In past National Journal vote ratings, McCain has come close only once--in 1994, his 89.2 composite conservative score made him the eighth-most conservative member of the Senate.

When McCain began preparing for a presidential bid in 2006, he was the 46th-most conservative member of the Senate (Because he was on the campaign trail, McCain missed too many votes in 2007 and 2008 to be given a rating). Then-Sen. Barack Obama, meanwhile, began his campaign at the far left end of the political spectrum. National Journal ranked Obama the Senate's most liberal member in 2007, a year when he was launching his 2008 presidential bid.

As he considers whether he will run for the Senate, Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.) is warning against a repeat of the 2008 Republican Senate primary, which turned into an ideological battle that caused the candidates to become "bruised and out of money."

His cautionary message came after speaking with Gov. Susana Martinez (R), state party chairman Monty Newman and other Republican activists in the state, where the message was for the party to unite behind a consensus nominee. Republican operatives in Washington are wary about the conservative Pearce's viability as a statewide candidate, after he badly lost to Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M) by 22 points in the 2008 general election.

"The prevailing opinion is that party leaders throughout the state need to come together and evaluate the race and take steps to avoid a repeat of the 2008 Senate race where both the candidates and the party were bruised and out of money at the end of the primary and we had no national Republican representatives," Pearce said in an e-mail to supporters.

Pearce edged out former Rep. Heather Wilson in 2008 in a heated primary that was decided by about 3,000 votes.

"It needs to be a full and open process to represent New Mexico. Although my name has been suggested as being on a short list of Republicans with statewide name ID, it is quite possible that a completely new face would be suggested in such a process. I have agreed to the discussion and hope all other potential Republican candidates will do the same," Pearce said.

Pearce added that "my friends in the Tea Party should be included in the process to select a Conservative candidate who can pull that valuable bloc of voters to the polls."

House Republicans are drafting a two-week continuing resolution to keep the government operating after the current CR expires on March 4 and will file the bill on Friday, National Journal has learned.

The measure will contain about $4 billion in spending cuts and will merge cuts approved last week by the House and several taken from President Obama's list of program terminations and savings. Three senior House GOP aides said the strategy is designed to avert a government shutdown and limit the ability of Senate Democrats and the White House to portray Republicans as unreasonable or inflexible.

From the time he was a candidate for the U.S. Senate from Illinois, Barack Obama has opposed the Defense of Marriage Act but maintained that he believes marriage was meant to be between a man and a woman.

• February 11, 2004: As a Senate candidate, Obama wrote in a Windy City Times letter to the editor that he found the Defense Against Marriage Act to be "abhorrent."

"It should be repealed and I will vote for its repeal on the Senate floor. I will also oppose any proposal to amend the U.S. Constitution to ban gays and lesbians from marrying. This is an effort to demonize people for political advantage, and should be resisted ," wrote Obama.

• June, 5, 2006: On the Senate floor, Obama said he believed that marriage was between a man and a woman but that legislation prohibiting gay marriage was a political wedge.

"This is not what the majority of the American people want. And this is not about trying to build consensus in this country; it's not about trying to bring people together," he said.

• July 1, 2008: Obama said through a spokeswoman, according to a San Francisco Chronicle report, that he supports civil unions.

"Senator Obama supports civil unions, and he has consistently opposed federal and state constitutional marriage amendments because as we have seen in some states, enshrining a definition of marriage into the constitution can allow states to roll back the civil rights and benefits that are provided in domestic partnerships and civil unions," the spokeswoman said.

• Oct. 10, 2009: At a Human Rights Campaign dinner in Washington, Obama said he opposed the 1996 act.

"And I've called on Congress to repeal the so-called Defense of Marriage Act and to pass the Domestic Partners Benefits and Obligations Act," he said.

• Oct. 27, 2010: In the Roosevelt Room during a roundtable interview with liberal bloggers, Obama said he was not prepared to reverse himself on his opposition to gay marriage. But he reiterated that he supported civil unions.

"I am a strong supporter of civil unions. ... I have been to this point unwilling to sign on to same-sex marriage primarily because of my understandings of the traditional definitions of marriage," the president said.

• Dec. 22, 2010: During a news conference, Obama came close to suggesting that he would support gay marriage.

"I have friends, I have people who work for me, who are in powerful, strong, long-lasting gay or lesbian unions. And they are extraordinary people, and this is something that means a lot to them and they care deeply about," Obama said.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has staked out a middle-of-the-road position in the dispute between state House Democrats and Republicans in Indiana over a right-to-work measure that would diminish the power of labor unions.

While Daniels has said that making Indiana a right-to-work state would boost economic development, he remains opposed to dealing with the matter at the current time, over concerns that it would disrupt his larger legislative agenda.

But Daniels' position could be problematic with his party's base, should he decide to run for president. If the influence of organized labor emerges as a broad issue in a GOP primary, Daniels could be in a tough spot. GOP opponents could point out that Daniels had his own unique opportunity to address the issue in Indiana, but decided to punt.

While Daniels' decision to prioritize his overall legislative agenda is a pragmatic one as he seeks to tally additional accomplishments as governor, it's unlikely to be beneficial in a Republican presidential primary where candidates traditionally seek to appeal to the conservative faithful, and accomplishments on specific issues often trump overall resumes.

His recent comments that Republicans should accept a truce on social issues may have bought him some goodwill from the press, but little from the constituencies that matter - both in Indiana and nationally. And it earned him hostility from social conservatives, who make up a big part of the GOP electorate.

And for a governor with an otherwise strong record in backing business over labor, Daniels' conciliatory rhetoric to his opponents -- at a time when state legislators skipped out across state lines to avoid casting a vote - threatens to wipe out all the political capital he's built up with substantive accomplishments. Some conservative commentators now think Daniels wants a fiscal truce, in addition to the social truce.

Daniels' argument has won the day in Indiana. Today, the leader of the Indiana Senate, a Republican, said that the controversial right-to-work legislation that died in the state House won't be resurrected in the Senate -- and should not have been introduced this year at all.

So Daniels has won the battle, but he may have lost the war. All this makes one wonder: Does Daniels really want to run for president, after all?

Like most politicians, Florida Senate Pres. Mike Haridopolos (R) wants potential voters and donors to think of him when they receive a fundraising letter.

But he also wants them to think of somebody else -- the state's junior senator.

The St. Petersburg Times highlights a Haridopolos fundraising letter in which Sen. Marco Rubio's (R) name is mentioned six times.

"As my good friend Marco Rubio's victory demonstrated, big-government establishment politicians like Bill Nelson are clearly part of the problem and not the solution," Haridopolos writes.

But is Haridopolos risking an eventual backlash from Rubio allies? The Times also notes that the letter "has offended some of Rubio's close allies, who wonder where Haridopolos was when it looked like Charlie Crist would bury" him.

Most of the Florida Republican establishment backed Crist upon his entrance in the Senate race, with the notable exception of former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, another likely Senate candidate. The question facing Haridopolos is whether Rubio supporters will judge the candidates based on a litmus test of loyalty to the current senator, or whether the Crist factor will be a distant memory come 2012.

Jimmy Kimmel is surprised that Rush Limbaugh would criticize first lady Michelle Obama for eating ribs on vacation, "The idea that someone as weighty as Rush Limbaugh would call someone else fat is kind of hilarious. So we decided to make it even more hilarious."

Stephen Colbert thinks the unions in Wisconsin are an "existential threat."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:45 for the latest "Kimmel Kartoon."

Rahm Emanuel won the Chicago mayoral election outright Tuesday, capturing the necessary majority of votes to avoid an April runoff, CNN has projected. The AP has also called the race for Emanuel.

With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Emanuel has 55 percent of the vote. Former Chicago School Board president Gery Chico, the second-place finisher, has 24 percent, while City Clerk Miguel del Valle and former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun each have 9% of the vote.

"Thank you Chicago, for this humbling victory. All I can say -- you sure know how to make a guy feel at home," Emanuel said in his victory speech Tuesday night. "After 5 months campaigning across this city and talking to thousands of Chicagoans from every community and every walk of life. ... We did it for our city," he added.

Emanuel also thanked Pres. Obama, saying he he just talked to the president. To roaring applause, Emanuel told the crowd Obama sends his "love and affection for his hometown."

"I want to extend my congratulations to Rahm Emanuel on a well-deserved victory tonight. As a Chicagoan and a friend, I couldn't be prouder. Rahm will be a terrific mayor for all the people of Chicago," Obama said in a statement.

Emanuel's victory represents the latest prominent step in a whirlwind political career. Emanuel left his House leadership perch and ambition to become Speaker behind to serve as Obama's first chief of staff. A little more than two years later, Emanuel, who also served in the Clinton administration, is set to lead one of the nation's biggest and most influential cities.

Under pressure over a controversial budget plan that would eliminate collective bargaining rights for many state workers, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) appeared anxious in the seconds leading up to his public address, captured in the video below.

Further evidence of his ruffled state: The Republican, new to the national stage, made a curious slip of the tongue during his address, deviating from his planned remarks. While he was scripted to say "That's because what we are asking for is modest - at least to those outside of government," something else came out. Watch below to find out. Text of planned remarks after the jump.

Concerned that the response from labor and Democrats could disrupt the legislative session, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) reiterated that the current time is not right to debate the right-to-work legislation Democrats are opposing.

"For reasons I've explained more than once, I thought there was a better time and place to have this very important and legitimate issue raised," Daniels said to reporters Tuesday afternoon.

Daniels' more conciliatory position contrasts with that of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.), who has gone after public unions' collective bargaining rights as a central part of his agenda to trim government spending.

Daniels added that he isn't going to be sending state law enforcement out to bring back Democratic members of the Indiana legislature who left over opposition to a right-to-work measure in the state legislature.

"I'm not sending the state police after anybody. I'm not going to divert a single trooper from their job from protecting the Indiana public. I trust that people's consciences will bring them back to work," said Daniels

Daniels said he believed that Democrats would come back if the bill dies. "I do. I really think so. And obviously, they should," he said. "But I really believe they will. I choose to believe they will."

"The activities of today are perfectly legitimate," Daniels added.

When is a presidential stalking horse not a presidential stalking horse? When it's Jon Huntsman's political action committee.

The newly-formed Horizon PAC isn't actually affiliated with the ambassador to China - but it's described by a top staffer as Huntsman's "campaign-in-waiting," as Huntsman works to extricate himself from his current assignment in Beijing.

"H-PAC isn't your typical political organization," said a spokesperson for the organization. "Neither the design nor messaging are what people have come to expect from traditional political organizations or campaigns. You won't see the same tired tropes and images that are the hallmark every other PAC website."

It's an accurate description -- the logo design looks more like it's advertising an upscale spa than a political campaign, and the organization's wistful motto is "Maybe Someday."

From the "Maybe Someday" tab on the website: "Long for hearts in the right place. Long for honor. ... These leaders exist. We will search the country. We will find them. Stand behind them. They will win. And, America will flourish. Someday COULD be today."

And under the "The Politician" tab: "It's an unusual animal. ... The firm handshake. The frosty smile. So often driven by ego alone. ... They tell us they love us. Respect our families. That all will be well. But, nothing is ever well. ... America can do so much better. Maybe someday."

The group is staffing up, with Emergent BioSolutions Corp. Senior VP Al Shofe serving as congressional liaison and Arent Fox Political Law Group founder Craig Engle as legal counsel. Huntsman has resigned his position as ambassador to China effective April 30, and will make a decision on a presidential run after he steps down.

As protesters besiege Madison, Wis., for an eighth consecutive day of demonstrations, stakeholders on both sides and interested observers are looking for measurements of public opinion to demonstrate where Wisconsinites and Americans in general stand on the budget showdown between Republican Gov. Scott Walker and unions representing state workers.

Two polls released today by the AFL-CIO, conducted by the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, claim that likely Wisconsin voters oppose Walker and support public employees. Meanwhile, an automated telephone poll conducted last week by conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports claims that "nearly half" of nationwide likely voters side with the newly-inaugurated Walker in the dispute. (Automated telephone polls typically do not meet Hotline On Call's standards for publication.)

Obviously, the biggest difference between the two surveys is that Democratic polls are of likely voters in Wisconsin, while the Rasmussen robo-poll is of likely voters across the country. But there are other key differences between the two that help explain their divergent findings.

Fresh off his sale of the Buffalo Sabres hockey team, entrepreneur and New York political activist Tom Golisano this morning announced he's putting his energies and considerable financial resources into a new cause: ending the Electoral College's role in picking a new president.

At a press conference in Washington, he said he's signed up for a "crusade" to abandon the existing system of electing the nation's chief executives in favor of a national popular vote. Four times in the nation's history, most recently in 2000, the Electoral College awarded the White House to a candidate who came in second.

The effort Golisano is supporting targets state legislatures rather than Congress, The plan is to get states representing a majority of Electoral College votes - 270 - to agree to award them to the winner of the popular election. It does not abolish the Electoral College, but would effectively circumvent its role in picking presidents.

So far, 7 states have approved the measure. Golisano said there will be a full-fledged lobbying effort -- including, where necessary, TV and radio ads -- as well as a grassroots campaign to build support. The founder of Paychex, a payroll services company and three-time unsuccessful candidate for New York governor, Golisano demurred when asked how much money he's prepared to invest.

"I'm not going to say because I don't know myself," he said. "But anyone who knows me knows I'm not going to be bashful about it."

Golisano, who has run for office as an independent, says one reason he's pushing the measure is that it would force candidates to pay attention to more than just the "battleground states" whose Electoral College votes hold the key to victory under the current system. According to the National Popular Vote campaign, 98 percent of the campaign events in the 2008 White House race took place in 15 states.

Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R-Mo.) has decided not to challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in 2012, leaving the Republican field without a more moderate option for the time being.

"I'm honored to have been approached by so many encouraging people about the opportunity to serve our state in the U.S. Senate," Emerson said in a statement. "I gave the matter a significant amount of consideration, talked it over with my family, and consulted with my trusted advisers and staff. We talked about what I can do as a junior member of the Senate and what I can do as a senior member of the U.S. House, and I decided the best possible way to serve Southern Missouri -- as well as the entire state -- is from my current post."

Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) and Rep. Russ Carnahan's (D) 2010 challenger Ed Martin (R) are the only two candidates currently in the race for the Republican nod, and are vying for tea party support. Rep. Sam Graves (R) and former Sen. Jim Talent (R) both passed on the race, and former RNC co-chair Ann Wagner (R) is said to be seriously considering a bid.

Indiana House Democrats are taking a page out of the playbook of their Wisconsin counterparts, leaving the state rather than voting on anti-union legislation, the Indianapolis Star reports.

The move prevents the House from reaching the quorum presence necessary to do business.

As the Star notes, today's showdown was triggered by Republicans pushing a bill that would prevent unions and companies from negotiating a contract that requires non-union members to kick-in fees for representation.

A source told the Star Democrats are headed to Illinois, though it was possible some also might go to Kentucky. They need to head to a state with a Democratic governor to avoid being taken into police custody and returned to Indiana.

A state House committee passed a right-to-work bill Monday, sparking a large protest from workers. Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has urged state legislative leaders not to pursue right-to-work legislation; his concern is that the response from labor and Democrats could disrupt his agenda and the legislative session.

Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) announced Tuesday he will not run for president in 2012, declaring he is "best positioned to fight for America's future here in the trenches of the United States Senate."

In a statement on his Facebook page, Thune said he and his wife had contemplated a bid, but that the timing isn't right for the second-term senator to make a White House bid.

"For months now, my wife Kimberley and I have received encouragement from family, friends, colleagues, and supporters from across South Dakota and the country to run for the presidency of the United States. We have appreciated hearing their concerns about where the country is headed and their hopes for a new direction," Thune said.

Thune said his decision-making process "involved lots of prayer," and frequently reminded him of "the importance of being in the arena, of being in the fight."

Thune has risen quickly in the GOP ranks since knocking off former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004. Many observers expected Thune to seek the presidency, even if only to set himself up for a future bid. Behind the scenes, Thune's top aides had been working to build the staff and infrastructure necessary to launch a bid if he had decided to run.

Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) officially launched his Senate bid Tuesday morning and immediately sought to link Sen. Dick Lugar (R) to Pres. Obama.

"Simply put, Obama loves having Republican Senator Dick Lugar on his side," said Mourdock, in an emailed statement announcing a primary challenge to the state's senior senator. "But we Republicans in Indiana need someone who will speak for us. Not Barack Obama. That's why, after much consideration, I've decided to challenge Dick Lugar in the Republican Primary for US Senate."

Mourdock is embarking on six city tour today, which began in Indianapolis this morning.

According to the text of Mourdock's announcement speech, the state treasurer praised the work of the Tea Party, and blasted Lugar for saying the Tea Party needs to "get real." But Mourdock refused to be pigeonholed as simply a Tea Party candidate.

"There will be many, who will take the thoughts I just shared with you and describe me as the 'Tea Party candidate.' But the truth is, my name has been on a general election ballot six times, even as recently as last November, and it has always been next to the word 'Republican,'" said Mourdock.

Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) may see a familiar face in his Republican Senate primary: the man he succeeded in Congress, former Rep. Matt Salmon (R).

Salmon tells Arizona political publication "Yellow Sheet Report" (subscriber) that he is seriously considering launching a bid for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jon Kyl (R) and has begun making calls to gauge support.

Salmon served in Congress in Arizona's first congressional district during the mid-nineties. He stepped down after a third term and Flake was elected to his seat in 2000. Salmon ran for governor in 2002, losing a close race to now Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano. He later served as chair of the state Republican party.

Salmon expects to finalize a decision in the next few months.

Got a tax question? Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) may be able to help you.

The longtime congressman -- who was censured by the House late last year for violating ethics rules and was found guilty by an Ethics subcommittee for violations including a charge that he initially mishandled taxes on a Caribbean villa - has annually offered tax tips to constituents, and is not stopping in 2011.

Rangel recently issued his latest "Rangel Report" with eight tax tips.

Rangel has filed paperwork to run for a 22nd term in 2012, a first step toward a re-election bid. But he has said that "nothing is locked in stone."

Former Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.) said Monday that he won't be running for any office in 2012, a decision that came on the heels of another prominent Indiana Democrat -- Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel -- removing himself from the list of Democrats who might run for governor.

Weinzapfel would have been a top Democratic recruit for the gubernatorial race, and earlier this year, when he announced his decision not to run for another term as mayor of Evansville, many observers interpreted the move as a sign the popular Democrat was leaning towards a gubernatorial run.

Now, Democrats will turn their attention to former state House Speaker John Gregg -- who says he is seriously considering a gubernatorial run -- and Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), who remains a possibility for either the gubernatorial or Senate race. State Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson is also considering a gubernatorial bid.

But Donnelly's case may be the most interesting. Redistricting is likely to make Donnelly's district more Republican, a factor which may push him toward a run for the Senate or governor.

If Democrats believe they can compete in the general election in both races, the prospect of having Donnelly in one race and Gregg in the other may end up being the most appealing possibility, and one that would also avoid a competitive primary between the two.

Donald Rumsfeld stops by the "Late Show with David Letterman" to reminisce about former presidents. Rumsfeld on Lyndon Johnson: "He liked to touch people."

Stephen Colbert is concerned about the protests in Wisconsin, "I just pray that Wisconsin does not fall. After all Wisconsin has long been an ally of the United States."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:07 when Rumsfeld talks about dodging a bullet.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's (R) new book, "A Simple Government," reads like "Conservatism for Dummies." Part manifesto and part how-to manual, it provides a step-by-step guide to applying conservative principles to executing the responsibilities of the federal government.

The subtitle of the former (and perhaps future?) GOP presidential candidate's book - "Twelve Things We Really Need from Washington (and a Trillion That We Don't!)" - gives the reader a pretty good idea of what they're getting themselves into: a 12-step program from a one-time Baptist preacher on how to fix the government Americans seem to love to hate. Huckabee tackles everything from faith to foreign policy, from education to debt and health care.

But the book does very little to shed light on how Huckabee is approaching the 2012 cycle - except for his unequivocal ambivalence about the media-driven process.

A look at some noteworthy passages after the jump. For a more complete look at the book, check out my story on Nationaljournal.com.

Republican county chairs in New York's 26th District have chosen Assemblywoman Jane Corwin as their nominee in a yet-to-be-set special election to succeed former Rep. Chris Lee.

The married congressman resigned Feb. 9 after a report that he had replied to a Craigslist personal ad with a shirtless muscle photo.

Corwin, who quickly racked up support from other would-be candidates after Lee's resignation, was picked from eight potential candidates that county chairs interviewed over the past week. A wealthy businesswoman, Corwin has indicated she's willing to spend as much as necessary in what could be a costly race.

"I am humbled to receive the support of Western New York's Republican leadership and I thank them for conducting this process in an open, fair and comprehensive manner considering the time constraints," Corwin said in a statement.

Corwin made sure to highlight her conservative bona fides in the statement, a signal that she's anticipating support from the Conservative Party. A split between the Republican and Conservative parties cost the GOP a seat in a 2009 special election in New York's 23rd District. Corwin won the Conservative party line in her state Assembly campaign.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, in a statement, called her a "strong conservative candidate."

The only suspense heading into Tuesday's Chicago mayoral election surrounds former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel's final vote tally. The question is not if Emanuel will come out on top, but by how much. If he gets more than 50 percent of the vote, he will win the election to succeed Mayor Richard Daley outright. If he fails to get a majority, Emanuel will face the second place vote-getter in an April 5 run-off.

When the campaign kicked off months ago, most observers assumed that the crowded field would inevitably ensure the need for a run-off. But five key factors have shaped the race and landed Emanuel on the brink of an outright win:

Dart's Decision Not to Run: Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart showed initial interest in running for mayor, but instead announced he'd sit the race out in late October. With his broad appeal stretching across many different factions and demographics, Dart is one of the most popular politicians in the Chicago area. Dart likely would have been Emanuel's stiffest competition, and some local political experts even considered Dart the favorite in the race. His absence made Emanuel an immediate and prohibitive favorite.

The Failed Consensus Candidacy: When Rep. Danny Davis and state Sen. James Meeks dropped out of the race in early January, the idea was that black voters would unite behind a consensus candidate -- former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun. In the balkanized world of Chicago politics, the full support of the black community would have almost assured Braun a spot in a run-off. But Braun's campaign has bounced from one gaffe to another, from her refusal to disclose details about her personal finances to her labeling a lesser known black candidate as a former crack addict to analogies involving Emanuel and Hitler. Braun's poor fundraising limited her commercials to public access television, while Emanuel flooded the airwaves with his own spots. Braun's sputtering campaign, combined with Emanuel's association with Pres. Obama and endorsement from Illinois Secetary of State Jesse White, resulted in recent polls showing Emanuel headed for a majority of African-American votes in the race.

Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) announced Monday that he will not run for the seat being vacated by Sen. Joe Lieberman (I).

From Courtney's statement, per the New Haven Register: "I am truly grateful for the tremendous encouragement and enthusiastic support I have received from leaders across Connecticut as I have considered this question. I look forward to working with all of those who reached out to create a strong future for our state. After careful deliberation, however, I have decided to focus on my work as a Congressman and will decline to enter the race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate."

Rep. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) are already in the race, while on the Republican side, 2010 nominee Linda McMahon is considering running.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) doesn't like the idea of Republicans calling a "truce" on social issues to focus on fixing the economy -- but that doesn't mean he's eager to take on the man pushing that message, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R).

"I'm a fan of Mitch Daniels," Huckabee said on a conference call with reporters Monday, adding that Daniels has "an extraordinary skill set not only to be governor but to be president."

Huckabee was speaking with reporters one day before the release of his book, "A Simple Government," in which he writes: "I've been criticized many times for talking so much about 'social issues' when the real issue now, according to some people, is the economy. Well, buckle up, Turbo, because here's a simple, inarguable fact: Every broken, fatherless family has a tremendous economic impact."

Huckabee made it clear that while he admires Daniels and could even see himself supporting the Hoosier for president, Republicans "don't need to be talking about a truce."

"I believe conservatives can walk and chew gum at the same time," said Huckabee, who stressed that one of the underlying themes of his book is that "there's no way to disconnect social issues from the economic," because there are "direct consequences from social breakdowns."

Last year, Huckabee was critical of Daniels' proposed truce on social issues, and his book shows that he won't be shy about continuing to express his disapproval of the idea.

Huckabee's book, which runs 210 pages, carries the subtitle: "Twelve Things We Really Need from Washington (and a Trillion That We Don't!)"

Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) said Sunday he plans to "actively consider" running for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D).

"I have not yet made a decision, but together with my wife Julie, I plan to actively consider running," said Heinrich in a Sunday afternoon statement. "Jeff Bingaman and I share a passionate concern for this great state and its people, and my decision will be based on whether I believe I can best serve New Mexico in the House or in the Senate."

Bingaman's announcement Friday that he will not run for re-election in 2012 put a seat that would have been a relatively safe Democratic hold in play for both parties. But Democrats have a fairly deep bench in the state, and Heinrich would be top recruit for Democrats.

Other Democratic names being mentioned include Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, former lieutenant governor Diane Denish and state Auditor Hector Balderas, who has reportedly taken initial steps to build a campaign team.

On the Republican side, former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) remains a possibility, and was considering a bid even before Bingaman announced he would not run again in 2012. Rep. Steve Pearce (R), who was the Republican nominee against then-Rep. Tom Udall (D) in the 2008 Senate race (after defeating Wilson in the primary), will also be looking at a bid. Wilson appeals more to moderates, whereas Pearce's strength is among conservatives.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outraised their GOP counterparts in the first month of the year, but they still carry $18.6 million in debt from last cycle and used little of the $4.4 million they brought in during January to pay down that debt.

According to monthly reports filed Sunday with the Federal Election Commission, the National Republican Congressional Committee raised just over $3 million during January. The NRCC still has $10.5 million of their own debt, same as they carried at the end of December, after paying down $1.5 million since the November elections.

However, the two committees are now on near parity with the amount of cash on hand. The DCCC transferred most of their new funds directly to their bank account, giving them nearly $3.4 million cash on hand, up significantly from the just $805,000 they had on hand at the end of December. The NRCC ended January with nearly $3.2 million cash on hand, up slightly from the $2.54 million in the bank at the end of year.

DCCC Chair Steve Israel had touted his committee's record monthly haul this week, pointing to it as an enthusiastic sign for the now-minority party, although he admitted that their debt now is "marginally higher" than in the past.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

The debate over spending and entitlements is shaping up to be a central issue in the 2012 election - as much as Pres. Obama's health care law and government regulation. Just this week, we saw a swarm of prominent GOP voices - Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Rep. Paul Ryan, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and most prominently, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker - take on the thorny issue that has bedeviled many politicians past.

And if Walker successfully takes on labor in Wisconsin - limiting the public sector's collective bargaining rights - it will spark other attempts by GOP governors across the country - and give Republicans a rallying cry against Obama heading into the presidential election.

The Senate map got even tougher for Democrats, who now have to defend four open seats (all in competitive or GOP-leaning states) with Sen. Jeff Bingaman's (D-N.M.) retirement announcement. It's still early, but in only one of the battleground states have serious Democratic candidates stepped forward (Rep. Chris Murphy (D) and former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) in Connecticut), while Republicans have landed former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.), Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.), Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Nebraska Treasurer Attorney General Jon Bruning (R). Democrats could really use Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine in the Virginia Senate race - or, at the least, get some top-tier recruits, pronto.

Just a few weeks ago, conventional wisdom started to tilt in the direction of Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) passing on a presidential run. But in interviews with National Review, the Christian Broadcasting Network and the Washington Post this week (as well as in last week's CPAC speech), Thune sounded like a man gearing up for a campaign, making his pitch to conservative voters. If Thune is serious about a run, look for him to start concentrating heavily on his state's neighbor to the southeast. With no clear front-runner at present, Iowa represents Thune's best chance to catapult himself into the ranks of the relevant in the battle for the GOP nomination.

The Census Bureau rolled out state-level data for four more states this week. One thing they have in common is a burgeoning Hispanic population. That growth will complicate the redistricting process in both Republicans' biggest prize, Texas, and in the Democrats' best redistricting opportunity, Illinois.

-- Texas is a majority-minority state for the first time in a redistricting period, which could complicate Republicans' hopes for a partisan gerrymander - - and make the state competitive for Democrats in future years. Whites now account for just 45 percent of the state's population, down from 52 percent a decade ago. The Hispanic population is now 38 percent of the total population - - growing by 42 percent -- while the African-American population grew slightly and is now 12 percent of the total population.

The state gained four congressional seats in reapportionment, largely due to minority growth. Republicans in control of redistricting this time around may struggle to do better than break even, and will likely have to add two Hispanic districts to the map, one in the Rio Grande Valley and San Antonio and the other near Houston.

The new data also suggests that Texas Republicans will need to effectively compete for the Hispanic vote in the future to win statewide contests. As more Latinos turn 18, become citizens, and register to vote, Texas could become a swing state sooner rather than later if Republicans don't make additional inroads with the Hispanic electorate.

-- Illinois also saw huge Latino growth: Hispanics now outnumber African Americans in President Obama's home state, the largest state where Democrats have complete control over the redistricting process. Only the suburban collar counties around Chicago grew substantially.

In the wake of President Obama's proposed 2012 budget, the Sunday shows will take a look at the looming debate. "Meet the Press" hosts Sen. Maj. Whip Dick Durbin and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). This Sunday will also be former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm's (D) first appearance on the show, part of her deal with the program to appear as a regular panelist.

"Face the Nation" will have reports from CBS News correspondents in the field on the unrest and protests in the Middle East. Bob Schieffer will then discuss the 2012 budget and what the Republicans have planned for their upcoming budget proposal with House Budget Chair Paul Ryan (Wis.). Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) will be on hand to talk about what the plan is for the Democrats.

"FOX News Sunday" also discusses the budget and potential bipartisan solutions to the fiscal crisis with Sens. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) and Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). Chris Wallace will then turn to Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) to discuss his state's financial crisis and the ongoing protests. CNN's "State of the Union" takes on the budget debate with Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Richard Lugar (R-Ind.).

ABC's "This Week" has an exclusive interview with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. More guests to be announced later.

Get the complete listings after the jump.

Western New York Republicans plan to pick their nominee for the 26th District special election by early next week.

County chairs from the district's seven counties have been meeting with candidates who wish to be considered for the nomination this week, and on Sunday they'll meet with the seven hopefuls for a final time, will deliberate shortly thereafter and hope to hold a vote near the beginning of the week.

Candidates who have been meeting with the party officials include Assemblywoman Jane Corwin; tanning bed company owner Dan Humiston, who was the 2008 nominee in the neighboring 27th District against Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.); businessman Jack Davis, who twice challenged Lee's predecessor, former Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) as the Democratic nominee; Iraqi veteran and author David Bellavia; Amherst Town Supervisor Barry Weinstein; and talk radio host Kathy Weppner.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has yet to set a date for the special election, created by former Rep. Chris Lee's abrupt resignation last week following a report the married congressman had contacted a woman on Craigslist and sent her a topless photo. But local Republicans say they're moving ahead with choosing their nominee regardless, so they'll be prepared for the special election - especially since recent special elections in the state have not gone as planned.

"We've dedicated ourselves to this timeline, so that we need to be prepared for anything," Erie County Republican Party Chairman Nick Langworthy told Hotline On Call. "We're committed a to a time line that's aggressive."

It seems that lately, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) just can't catch a break.

First, a much publicized lawsuit involving an olive pit Kucinich bit into at a House cafeteria was the dominant story surrounding the congressman from Ohio. Now the Federal Election Commission has found that Kucinich's 2004 presidential campaign owes a five figure sum to the federal government.

The FEC determined Thursday that Kucinich's 2004 presidential campaign committee must repay $52,443 to the U.S. Treasury for using campaign money for non-qualified expenses during the 2004 Democratic primary.

According to an FEC memo, Kucinich applied for matching funds in late 2003 and his campaign received over $3 million. But the FEC determined that even after Kucinich's date of ineligibility for using matching funds -- which came in March of 2004, after he failed to receive ten percent of the vote in two consecutive primaries, he used matching funds to continue campaigning.

In defending his proposed budget against Republican Congressional criticism, President Obama used a time-tested strategy - he took the fight to their backyards.

By inviting local reporters from Cincinnati, Richmond and Milwaukee to the White House Map Room this week for 10-minute interviews, the president combated arguments by House Speaker John Boehner, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan on their home turfs without leaving his own.

Obama spoke about national issues during all three interviews and state-specific issues with the reporters from Richmond and Milwaukee, mentioning both Ryan and Cantor by name when prompted. The Richmond and Milwaukee stations WWBT and WTMJ are both NBC affiliates; Cincinnati's WCPO is an ABC affiliate.

"Well, look, I think Congressman Ryan is going to have the opportunity to work with me to solve these problems," Obama said to WTMJ's Charles Benson as he discussed spending cuts. Obama later added, "(Ryan) hasn't been too specific so far in terms of exactly what he'd like to see done."

When told by WWBT's Ryan Nobles that he appears to have an "icy" relationship with Cantor, Obama replied, "I don't think it's icy. Look, Eric Cantor is a Republican leader in the House. ... He's now in a position of responsibility."

The president also discussed his disagreements with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) on high-speed rail and collective bargaining rights for public employees and how he would support a Senate candidacy by Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine in Virginia.

The interviews also supplied an extra advantage for in 2012 - all three leaders hail from critical battleground states for the president's re-election.

President Obama, in his budget, deferred the tough decisions on entitlements to Republicans. And the GOP is betting that the electorate will reward them for making the painful calls.

-- This week, the GOP showed its hand. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) gave a well-received speech about the urgency to make tough choices for the country's future. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) has sparked protests from public workers over his plan to cut spending while undermining union influence. And House Republicans, after some hesitation, announced they're addressing the entitlements that are the key to solving the debt. Taking them on has rarely led to political success.

-- Many Democrats believe Obama set a political trap by allowing Republicans to take the lead on cuts. And Obama has taken sides on the Wisconsin protests in favor of labor: the DNC has organized volunteers to protest the cuts. Those would be good bets, if the politics of 2012 went by the same rules as the past.

-- But we're seeing signs of change. Approval of labor unions is at a near all-time-low. Christie and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) have seen their popularity soar even as they've taken on entrenched interests. Even Obama has tweaked the teachers' unions, the Democrats' biggest backers.

-- Fiscal reform is still a big gamble for the GOP, but it looks like they're putting all their chips in one basket. Most interesting: Jeb Bush offered support to Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), the one presidential candidate who's been sounding that siren and has a record as governor to back it up.

Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) is expected to announce his retirement later today, two Democratic sources have confirmed to Hotline On Call. The news was first reported by the Washington Post.

Bingaman's decision expands the playing field for Republicans, putting what would have been a relatively safe Democratic seat in play. New Mexico is a swing state where Republicans performed well in 2010, including winning the gubernatorial contest, though President Obama carried it with 57 percent of the vote in 2008.

Democrats have a fairly deep bench of potential candidates in the state, including former lieutenant governor Diane Denish, who lost to Gov. Susana Martinez (R-N.M.) last year. Reps. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.) have also been floated by Democratic operatives as potential candidates.

"If one of them gets in, that will probably limit the field. And if neither of them gets in, that will not limit the field," New Mexico political reporter Joe Monahan told Hotline On Call, speaking about Heinrich and Lujan.

Potential GOP candidates include Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M), and former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.). Both ran for Senate in 2008. Wilson had been seriously considering another Senate run even before Bingaman's retirement announcement, according to several Republican sources. Pearce's spokesman had no immediate comment on whether he will seek the seat. (He lost to Democratic Sen. Tom Udall by 22 points in 2008.)

Businessman Doug Turner, who ran in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary, is another possible Republican candidate.

Bingaman becomes the fourth senator who caucuses with the Democrats to announce retirement. Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), Jim Webb (D-Va.) have previously announced they will not be running in 2012.

Two Republican senators have announced their retirement plans: Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas).

Sen. Scott Brown's (R-Mass.) improbable march to victory in the 2010 Massachusetts Senate special election was at one point almost over before it all started following a tense 2009 exchange with former George W. Bush chief of staff Andrew Card, according to a passage from Brown's upcoming book.

The Boston Globe reports on a section in Brown's upcoming autobiography, "Against All Odds," in which Brown recalls an exchange with Card, who was considered an early Republican front-runner in the race.

"I probably was being a little disrespectful [to Card]; I was fairly pissed," Brown writes, after noting that Card told him he intended to run for the Senate seat. "But he was also pissed."

In his book, Brown details a gathering at Card's brother-in-law's house in September of 2009, according to the Globe story. At the gathering, Brown revealed his intention to run in the Senate race and Card said he was leaning toward a bid of his own; Brown was slated to announce his candidacy that same evening.

"And then I told him, 'Andy, I'll beat you,'" Brown writes, according to the Globe. "That upped the testosterone level in the room. He replied, 'Well, I don't need to be threatened by you, you know.'"

Later at the gathering, Brown writes, he decided to pull out of the race and back Card, which he did publicly, in a dramatic moment at a gathering of GOP activists at a suburban Boston hotel. With Card professing indecision, Brown stunned the room by announcing his deference, which came a few hours after convenience store magnate and former Republican gubernatorial candidate Christy Mihos had backed off his own candidacy.

Brown said he would give Card until after the ceremonies, two days later, commemorating the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, a deadline repeatedly pushed back as Card balked. On Friday night, Card called Brown to tell him he would not run, at which point Brown immediately launched his bid, with a kickoff the next day.

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano will not seek the seat being vacated by Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), a decision that increases the uncertainty in a prospective Democratic field in which no clear front-runner has emerged. The news was first reported by the AP.

"Secretary Napolitano told senior Democratic Party leaders earlier this week that she will not seek Arizona's open U.S. Senate seat in 2012," DHS spokesperson Sean Smith said in a statement issued Friday. "She cares deeply about Arizona, but the Secretary intends to continue doing the job that the President asked her to do -- protecting the American people from terrorism and other threats to our country. She's focused on continuing to strengthen our counter-terrorism initiatives, border security, immigration enforcement, transportation and cyber security, and disaster preparedness."

Former state Democratic Party chair Jim Pederson, another prominent Democrat whose name had been mentioned as a possible candidate, also said earlier this week that he will not run.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' (D) name has been mentioned as a possible candidate. Giffords had talked about running before a shooting in Tucson earlier this year nearly took her life. But uncertainty surrounds her recovery and the question of whether she would even want to run remains up in the air.

Other Democratic names that have been mentioned include Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, U.S. Attorney Dennis Burke, and Rep. Ed Pastor.

The only officially announced candidate in the race is Rep. Jeff Flake (R), who made his bid official earlier this week.

The ongoing debate over when the 2012 presidential primary should take place in Florida has caused divisions among high-profile Republicans, pitting Gov. Rick Scott against Sen. Marco Rubio, among others.

Florida's primary is currently slated for the end of January. The national party wants to protect the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina by ensuring that the other primaries don't take place before March.

If Florida were to stick by its early primary plans, the early states could move up their primary and caucus dates, to retain their status as the first states in the process. As well, state Republicans would be subject to losing delegates to the national convention.

But that's a price some Florida Republicans are willing to pay, in order to be in the mix early on in the process.

The latest development: Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon, a Republican, told CNN Thursday he sees little chance that Florida will move its date to later in the year.

"I think we belong at the beginning of the national conversation about who the next president is, and so I favor keeping it early," Cannon said. "We will consider moving it a little bit. If the end result, whatever the date is, keeps Florida at the beginning or early in the dialogue, that's the goal," he added.

On Wednesday, Rubio entered the fray, telling the Palm Beach Post that the state should keep its early primary plans.

"I think if the Republican Party wants to pay for the elections in Florida, they can have them any day they want. But as long as the voters of Florida are going to pay for this election, it should be on the most meaningful day possible. An election in late January costs the same as an election in April, but it's a lot more meaningful," said Rubio.

"I'm okay with Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina -- those are established states and I don't think Florida desires to get ahead of any of them. But after that, why should Florida be behind anyone else?" he asked.

This post was updated at 11:36 a.m. on February 18.

CORRECTION: The original version of this story misreported the number of House seats Texas Republicans picked up in 2010. They picked up three seats and now hold a total of 23.

Texas is officially a majority-minority state, according to just-released Census numbers, the first time in the decennial census that it has crossed that threshold.

Whites now account for just 45 percent of the state's population, down from 52 percent a decade ago. The Hispanic population is now 38 percent of the total population - growing by 42 percent -- while the African American population grew slightly and is now 12 percent of the total population. The state gained four congressional seats in reapportionment, largely due to minority growth: almost 90 percent of the state's growth was from minorities.

The Census findings complicate Republicans' hopes for a partisan gerrymander during this redistricting process. The Democratic lean of Hispanic voters and Voting Rights Act requirements that protect the group's voting strength from being watered down means that despite Republican control of the redistricting process, the GOP will struggle to make the map much more favorable to their party.

"The numbers will dictate what is possible and what can be done," said Republican State Sen. Kel Seliger, one of the Republicans tapped to run the redistricting process. Seliger predicted there would be at least one more Hispanic opportunity district in the Rio Grande Valley, but said it was too early to predict whether there should be a second Latino-influence district, something Hispanic groups have called for, because he has yet to analyze the Citizen Voting Age Population data that they must use to draw the lines.

The new data also suggests that Texas Republicans will need to effectively compete for the Hispanic vote in the future to win statewide contests. If the growth continues and Republicans fail to make additional inroads with the Hispanic electorate, Texas could become a swing state sooner rather than later.

Members of Congress in both parties agree that states should have more responsibility than the federal government in setting education policy, but they split when it comes to other areas like energy, health care and transportation, according to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) may be about to start a new job, but it's one that is likely to open her up to a new round of criticism if she decides to run for her old House seat in 2012.

Herseth Sandlin is in serious and final negotiations to join law and lobbying firm Olsson Frank Weeda, Roll Call reports. The move would likely open her up to new attacks if she runs, as lobbying work remains an oft-targeted resume line in campaigns across the country.

The National Republican Congressional Committee quickly pounced on the news Thursday. "This new job representing special interests clearly puts her at odds with South Dakota values," NRCC spokesperson Tyler Houlton said in a statement.

On Wednesday, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel said "we would love to have Stephanie Herseth Sandlin back." Israel told reporters he has "exchanged several emails with her, but she has not committed. She hasn't told us whether she is interested or not."

"Certainly an opportunity for me to serve South Dakota in elected office at some point, either in the near term or down the line, is something I'll evaluate because of how much I enjoyed serving," Herseth Sandlin told the Rapid City Journal Wednesday.

"I'm exploring all my professional options, looking for my own personal balance. I'm looking forward to sitting down with the chairman, but I haven't made any decisions about what I'll do politically. It's too early," she said.

As battles over benefits and bargaining rights for public-sector unions wage in state Capitols across the country, a new poll released Thursday shows the labor movement remains nearly as unpopular as it has at any time in the last 25 years.

The survey, by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, shows 45 percent of adults hold a favorable view of the labor movement, compared to 41 percent who do not. The results are a slight rebound for unions from last year, when more of the public held an unfavorable than favorable view, 42 percent to 41 percent.

But unions are still viewed in a much harsher light than in 2007, when 58 percent of the public viewed them favorably compared to just 31 percent who didn't.

The news comes just as the Wisconsin lawmakers are set to vote on a budget that would not only reduce workers' benefits but reduce their bargaining rights. Public-sector unions have been the focus of many governors' budget-cutting agenda, most notably by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (R), as states contend with multi-million and billion dollar deficits.

The poll showed the public doesn't view workers for public and private unions differently, with each group seen favorably by 48 percent of the public.

This week's On The Trail column focuses on the Nevada Senate contest, the second straight cycle Silver State voters will undergo an advertising barrage from two top-tier candidates and national groups. Those top-tier contenders don't include Sen. John Ensign (R), but no one has bothered to tell him he's not wanted.

Instead, watch the race come down to a battle between Reps. Shelley Berkley (D), of Las Vegas, and Dean Heller (R), whose district essentially covers everything outside of Clark County. Neither candidate is in the race, but that's like saying Mitt Romney isn't in the presidential race; Berkley is conducting polls and traveling to the northern part of the state, while Heller conducted his own survey in January. It's just a matter of time, most party officials on both sides think, until Berkley and Heller get in the race.

We spoke with Berkley, who moved to Las Vegas as a child and whose father eventually became maitre d' at the Sands Hotel. Berkley put herself through college as a cocktail waitress and a Keno runner, and she even volunteered to knock on doors for Harry Reid's first race for state assembly, in 1968.

"This is a big decision for me. I love my job. I grew up in Las Vegas, and southern Nevada has been my home for 50 years. It's a good fit," Berkley said. "It's going to take a few more months. I'm not going to rush into this, and nobody, quite frankly, is pushing me to make a decision. I think people are waiting on me to make a decision before they decide what to do. But once I make the decision, I'm either all in and running as if my life depended on it, or I take a step back and just bloom where I'm planted. Either way, I'm very comfortable with the ultimate decision."

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) recently addressed his well known Google problem, telling Roll Call in an interview that he is well aware of sex columnist Dan Savage's 2003 contest that redefined the word "santorum" as a sexual neologism. It's worth noting that the former senator is not the only politician whose name produces unusual results when searching on the Internet database.

For example, a Google search of the name "Huntsman" brings up images of the "Huntsman spider," an arachnid mostly found in Australia. Or try typing in "Ovide" to search for 2010 New Hampshire Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne (R). Immediately, a product named Ovide, an FDA approved head lice treatment, is the first result to pop up.

Some politicians are a casualty of coincidence. Take Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), who is unfortunate enough to have the same name as drug lord Frank Lucas. Voters from Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district looking for their congressman's contact information might be frightened after searching for Representative Lucas leads to pictures of the drug kingpin.

And poor Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.), whose Internet presence is overshadowed by famed comedian Jerry Lewis. Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) has to compete against legendary singer Al Green.

Still, a politician sharing the same name with another famous individual can sometimes work in his or her favor as in the case of Daniel Webster and Adam Smith. No, not the American statesman and Scottish philosopher, but rather the representatives from Florida and Washington respectively.

Finally, there are those politicians who share their search results with lesser known figures, such as Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.), who is overshadowed by comedian Stephen Lynch; and Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.), whose namesake is the same as English band Iron Maiden guitarist Adrian Smith.

Both parties may be downplaying their interest in competing for an upcoming House special election for the seat vacated by former Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y.), but there are signs that another classic House race showdown may be coming soon to the Empire State.

Republicans are taking the race very seriously, even though the seat could be sliced up during the redistricting process. State senator Jane Corwin is emerging as the clear Republican favorite for the seat, both among New York state party insiders and Washington strategists.

Corwin brings notable assets to a race: She's only been in the legislature for two years, she has Conservative party support, and she has the ability to self-finance a race. Past Republican nominees in special elections have suffered from their insider status in an unpopular state legislature (Tedisco), and for being insufficiently conservative (Scozzafava). If Corwin is the nominee, she won't have those vulnerabilities.

Corwin has already assembled a well-regarded consulting team, with Dave Sackett expected to serve as her pollster and Michael Hook slated to be media consultant, according to GOP insiders.

Several other Republicans are interested in the race, including wealthy businessman Jack Davis, who switched parties after running against former GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds several times.

Overall, President Obama gets passing marks for his handling of the crisis in Egypt, but Republican Members of Congress were harsher in how they graded the president than his fellow Democrats, according to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Pres. Obama's job approval rating among Pennsylvania voters has reached its highest point since July of 2009, according to a Quinnipiac University survey released Thursday morning: 51 percent say they approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president, while 44 percent disapprove.

Obama's numbers are up seven points from a poll released on December 16, which found that 44 percent of registered voters approved, while 43 percent disapproved. In July of 2009, 56 percent of Pennsylvania voters approved, while 33 percent disapproved.

The poll was conducted from February 8-14, and surveyed 1,366 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

According to the poll, Obama is polling better than some of his policies, a finding that has been repeatedly evident in many surveys over the last two years. 48 percent of registered voters surveyed in the state are in favor of Congress trying to repeal Obama's health care reform law, while 42 percent say it should stand.

One surprising finding from the survey: Sen. Bob Casey (D) -- despite having served as a senator since 2007 and with his father's service as governor, remains unknown by a significant portion of the electorate -- 31 percent of the state's voters are undecided about him. 44 percent approve of the job he is doing, while 24 percent disapprove.

The 31 percent figure is not much lower than the 39 percent who are undecided about the state's junior senator, Pat Toomey (R), who has only been in office since January.

In honor of The Huffington Post selling for $315 million, Stephen Colbert unveils his new website, "The Colbuffington Re-Post."

Jimmy Fallon, on Arkansas Congressman Steve Womack proposing to cut funding to President Obama's teleprompter, "Oh man, when Obama finds out he's going to be speechless."

Todays Must See Moment -- Fast Foward to 0:15, Donald Trump would be a decisive president.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Former South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) may have left Washington, but Washington hasn't forgotten her.

"We would love to have Stephanie Herseth Sandlin back," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel said Wednesday afternoon at his first pen and pad briefing of the year. "I actually have exchanged several emails with her, but she has not committed. She hasn't told us whether she is interested or not."

Herseth Sandlin was unseated by Rep. Kristi Noem (R-S.D.) in one of the highest profile House races of the 2010 cycle. In January, Herseth Sandlin was chosen to join a board that oversees a South Dakota State University research park.

In an exit interview with the Sioux Falls Argus Leader published in early January, Herseth Sandlin said she was undecided on whether or not she would run for her old seat.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) is not messing around when he says he's not running for president.

In a speech to the conservative American Enterprise Institute, Christie said he would have to go to extreme lengths to convince people he's out of the race.

"Apparently I have to commit suicide to convince people I'm not running," Christie said.

In typical modest fashion, Christie says he understands why people would ask him to launch a White House bid. He, too, sees a path to victory, but that opportunity isn't reason enough to take the plunge.

"That's not a reason to be president of the United States. You have to believe in your heart and soul and mind that you are ready and I don't believe that myself right now."

More on Christie's big speech and his unofficial Washington debut later today on NationalJournal.com

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel announced Wednesday his organization raised $4.4 million in January, calling the fundraising uptick an enthusiastic sign as his party works to gain back the majority in 2012.

In his first pen and pad briefing with reporters of the year, Israel was optimistic about Democrats' chances to win the 25 seats they need to flip control, outlining an aggressive fundraising and recruiting strategy for the coming year even as redistricting looms large.

"Being in the minority sucks, but being in the minority party and being able to do something about it is priceless," said Israel. "I want to thank the Republicans for making my job easier than it should be. Every day they give us a lot to work with."

But, Israel cautioned that pointing to GOP missteps alone wouldn't change voters' minds. "We will win it by putting the pedal to the metal."

At the heart of that drive is their fundraising effort, although it's still shadowed by the nearly $20 million in debt still hanging over their heads. But, Israel said he was encouraged by their haul last month - just $300,000 short of their highest ever January monthly total, set last year - and said in December, the DCCC raised $1 million online, which came from an average of $32 per donation.

Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) was sexually abused at the hands of a camp counselor at the age of 10, he says in a new book.

In a new interview with CBS's 60 Minutes, Brown details physical abuse he suffered as a child, and the sexual abuse he says he never reported.

"It was certainly, back then, very traumatic," Brown said in a clip released by CBS today. "When people find people like me at that young, vulnerable age who are basically lost, the thing that they have over you is they make you believe that no one will believe you."

"I haven't told anybody. That's what happens when you're a victim. You're embarrassed, you're hurt," he said.

The interview airs Sunday at 7 p.m.

After an embarrassing failed attempt last week, on Monday the House approved an extension of key Patriot Act provisions. As Josh Kraushaar pointed out last week, two Republican Representatives currently considering Senate runs helped defeat the extension then; and both Reps. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) and Dean Heller (R-Nev.) again voted against the extension on Monday.

Josh argues that the votes could come back to haunt the lawmakers in a Republican primary. But it could also prove to be a tea party-friendly move as Mack and Heller position themselves for higher office. While from a tough-on-national-security standpoint, extending the act seems to be an obvious Republican vote, from the government-intrusion standpoint it's a lot murkier.

Tea Party star Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) also voted against the extension. And when the Senate voted Tuesday night to extend the provisions just through May -- in order to have a full-fledged debate -- even that short extension was opposed by Tea Party Caucus members Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah).

Paul sent a dear colleague letter out in a press release Tuesday, laying out his opposition to the act. "It is not acceptable to willfully ignore the most basic provisions of our Constitution - in this case the Fourth and First Amendments - in the name of security," Paul wrote.

National Journal's Cameron Joseph has a story in today's National Journal Daily (subscriber) that takes a look at the demographic shift in Illinois, and how it may complicate redistricting. The state's population is shrinking just about everywhere outside the Chicago collar counties.

The money graf:

President Obama's home state grew by 3.3 percent in the last decade, not fast enough to avoid losing a House seat. Only the collar counties around Chicago saw substantial growth. Most of the rest of the state lost population. The main reason the state's overall population didn't shrink: Illinois is home to almost a half-million more Hispanics today than a decade ago. During the same period, the state lost more than 256,000 whites and more than 23,000 blacks. Hispanics now account for 15.8 percent of the state's population.

After the jump, there's a graphic from the Census website that shows how widespread the population loss is in Illinois -- an example of a picture being worth 1,000 words.

The Club for Growth PAC announced Wednesday morning that Club members contributed over $100,000 to Rep. Jeff Flake's (R-Ariz.) Senate campaign the first day after the PAC endorsed him; an impressive sum sure to boost the congressman's bid.

Within hours of Sen. Jon Kyl's (R) retirement announcement last week, the Club sent out a release urging Flake to run, and endorsed him almost immediately after he made his bid official on Monday. Flake has a reputation as a fiscal conservative and is well-known for his strong opposition to earmarks.

Flake is the first candidate the PAC has endorsed this election cycle, according to a release from the group.

So far, Flake is the only candidate from either party officially in the Senate race, but a number of other potential candidates are reportedly considering running.

Following an election cycle in which immigration and border security were front and center in several statewide contests, Arizona finds itself fractured politically, with different groups, factions, parties, and even subdivisions within parties clinging to disparate beliefs about how to address concerns over the border.

And recently declared Senate candidate Rep. Jeff Flake's (R) success in the Republican primary will likely hinge heavily on how he navigates the issue.

"I've had six elections and in a couple of them I had primaries, and immigration was featured prominently," said Flake on Tuesday evening, in an interview with Hotline On Call. "Arizona's voters are the most sophisticated there are on immigration issues ... they understand, for example, if we were to solve the border issue completely, that then we would discover that nearly half of those who are here illegally didn't sneak across it -- they came legally and overstayed."

But already, several Arizona Republicans are expressing doubts about Flake's views.

"His position on the border is contrary, totally, to the citizens of Arizona," said former state Republican chairman Randy Pullen.

"He shares the ideals that the Washington insider groups have portrayed," said former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), an immigration hardliner. "When you take a look at the record, and when you take a look at some of his very well-publicized positions, I don't think it's the slam dunk that some are trying to portray here." Hayworth is mulling a bid of his own.

The day before the second anniversary of the passage of the $787 billion stimulus bill, Republicans want Congressional Democrats to remember what they said way back then about the bill.

In a spoof of the popular website "Texts From Last Night," today the National Republican Congressional Committee will unveil "Texts From Last Congress," hitting Democrats on statements they said in 2009 - and reminding them of the reaction from voters at the polls last fall.

Just like the site that lists often-regrettably sent late night messages, the NRCC site links to the statements of members, but also posts imagined reactions to their vote from their constituents.

"This bill is not perfect, and I am very concerned about its cost as a strong advocate of fiscal responsibility," Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.), one of Republicans' top targets next cycle, said two years ago. "Wow. I'm guessing you voted no then?" a hypothetical voter from his district asks. Oh no, I voted yes, just saying fiscal responsibility is hip these days."

Rep. Ben Chandler (D-Ky.), another Democrat who was narrowly reelected in 2010, was quoted in his local paper as saying the stimulus "does two things: It produces projects that employ people here, but it also gives you something for the community." The imagined response: "It sure does. Your wife is pulling in $80,000/year to oversee how it's all spent." Beshear's wife was appointed by Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear (D) to help manage the state's money from the bill.

President Obama accidentally swears during a press conference on the budget. Conan O'Brien: "You can see the whole thing on his new sitcom, '(Bleep) My President Says'."

Jon Stewart thinks Donald Trump is the unlikely guest at this year's CPAC conference.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:06 to see what the White House would look like if Trump were president.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn, (R-Texas) offered no encouragement to Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) Tuesday -- in the wake of a poll showing Ensign badly trailing potential primary opponent Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.).

It's the latest hint directed towards the scandal-plagued Ensign that top Senate Republicans would prefer he step aside.

"The NRSC Chairman is selected by the Republican Conference, and I work with the Republican Conference, meaning all the incumbents," Cornyn said. "I would say I learned some important lessons the last cycle, and the most important lesson is the nominee will be chosen by the primary voters in Nevada and nobody else. And so we'll await their judgment."

Asked if there is a point at which Ensign should announce he will not seek reelection if his weak poll numbers -- dragged down by his admission of an extramarital affair with a former aide and allegations of ethics violations amid Ensign's efforts keep the affair quiet -- Cornyn demurred.

"I really think that is a question that would probably be better directed to him," Cornyn said.

While the NRSC has traditionally backed GOP incumbents in primaries, Cornyn notably did not offer a whiff of support for Ensign, himself a former NRSC Chair, when asked about the poll.

One of the most pressing goals the Tea Party Express has this year is to oust Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), the centrist who voted for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, voted for health care reform legislation in the Senate Finance Committee and voted for the New START treaty.

Over the weekend, at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Tea Party activist Andrew Ian Dodge announced a challenge to Snowe. Plenty of outlets covered Dodge's announcement that he would run, and for a moment, he might have been a serious contender.

"For too long, Maine has been represented by tax and spend partisans. It's time a true leader forged in the fire of Tea Party fiscal conservatism grabbed the reins," Dodge said in a statement posted on his website.

But for all the calamity Snowe faces for her votes with Democrats, it's not likely Dodge is going to be the guy to oust her. For one thing, a quick Google search makes him look like another Christine O'Donnell in the making.

He "typically dresses in black and admits that there are Halloween party photos of him wearing an eye patch, a leather kilt and similarly themed costumes," according to the Lewiston Sun-Journal, which covered Dodge's potential candidacy in December.

Marcy Winograd has said she wants to talk to Secretary of State Debra Bowen about her foreign policy positions before she decides whether she'll also get into the special election in California's 36th District. And so far, she's still waiting.

The progressive activist who twice challenged Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) in the Democratic primary said she's emailed Bowen to try to talk and get answers to her questions on Bowen's foreign policy positions. But as Bowen is launching her candidacy Tuesday, the two have yet to connect. Winograd has spoken with Bowen's consultant Steve Barkan, and last Thursday Bowen left a message on Winograd's answering machine, saying she was still researching some of the issues. Winograd emailed her again after that, but hasn't heard back.

Winograd told Hotline On Call her chief concerns are whether a Rep. Bowen would join the Out of Afghanistan Caucus and the Progressive Caucus in the House and whether she'd be willing to lead a peace delegation to Palestine.

"Right now we're seeing worldwide upheaval in the Middle East, and we need leaders who are going to pursue peace in an honest, forthright way," said Winograd. "I haven't heard back from her on those issues."

Winograd indicated after Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn announced her candidacy last week that she wanted a more progressive alternative in the race, and was particularly concerned about Hahn's support for Israel.

4:45 p.m. update: A source close to Harman says she will delay her resignation until Feb. 28th at the request of Gov. Jerry Brown. Brown will issue a statement on the delay.

2:48 p.m. update: Bowen issued a statement Tuesday afternoon officially announcing her bid.

California Secretary of State Debra Bowen will enter the special election to replace Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) on Tuesday, a source close to Bowen confirmed to Hotline On Call.

Bowen's entrance, first reported by Politico, comes the same day as Harman officially leaves Congress to head the Woodrow Wilson Center, but it's more than a week after Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn announced her campaign for the seat -- and she's spent the past week racking up key endorsements from legislators and labor coalitions, most notably getting the backing of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) on Monday.

"We Democrats will, as always have a joyous family battle between two extraordinarily talented Democrats and, in any case, whether it's Hahn or Bowen, the South Bay area will have extraordinary representation," Los Angeles County Democratic Party Chair Eric Bauman told Hotline On Call.

But, with Hahn's head start in the race, Bowen will need to make up ground fast.

"[Bowen] is entering the race now at a bit of a disadvantage as Hahn has locked up the endorsements of more than 50 Democratic organizations or allied organizations," said Bauman. "Bowen is going to have to work extra hard to play catch up."

The second installment of the Iowa GOP/Fox News debate series will be held in Sioux City the week before the 2012 Iowa Caucuses, state Republican Chair Matt Strawn announced Tuesday.

The debate will be held at the Orpheum Theater. Strawn said specifics regarding the debate will be released at a later date. The 2012 Iowa Caucuses will be held on Feb. 6, 2012.

The Iowa Republican Party and Fox News previously announced the date of the first debate in the series, which is set to take place on August 11, 2011, around the same time as the Iowa Republican straw poll in Ames.

Meanwhile, the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition is hosting a forum on March 7, and several potential 2012 presidential candidates have committed to attending.

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) can't top 50 percent against several potential Republican opponents, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll released Tuesday morning; the latest sign he may be vulnerable to a Republican challenger in 2012.

According to the results of the poll, which was commissioned by Ron Sachs Communications, in hypothetical head to head matchups, Nelson leads Rep. Connie Mack 45 percent to 40 percent, former Sen. George LeMieux 49 percent to 35 percent, state Senate Pres. Mike Haridopolos 48 percent to 25 percent, and former state Rep. Adam Hasner 46 percent to 24 percent.

Mack, LeMieux and Hasner are considering Senate runs while Haridopolos announced his bid in January. Outside of Mack, whose father served in the Senate, none of the Republicans have much name identification with the public.

The poll of 625 registered Florida voters was conducted Feb. 9-10, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. 274 Democrats, 248 Republicans and 103 independent/other voters were surveyed.

The one Republican in the poll who leads Nelson? Former Gov. Jeb Bush, who tops Nelson 49 percent to 41 percent. But Bush has said he will not run against Nelson in 2012.

With speculation swirling that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) might consider skipping the Iowa caucuses if he launches a second presidential bid, one influential Iowa conservative is actively encouraging Romney to come back and compete in the Hawkeye State: Rep. Steve King.

After spending millions of dollars in Iowa only to finish second behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee back in 2008, Romney has reportedly considered several different strategies for the 2012 primary season -- including skipping Iowa altogether. King told Hotline On Call that he's firmly opposed to that idea.

"I'm inviting Mitt Romney to come to Iowa; I want him to come to Iowa," said King, who noted that with Huckabee looking increasingly unlikely to run, Romney would enter caucus season as the de facto front-runner. "One would have to at this point conclude that as strong as Mitt Romney was there -- and we know that he has an organization already in place in Iowa -- that he would be the person who has the best foundation to build from."

In a recent interview, Romney pushed back against the notion that he may skip Iowa, saying, "if I get in this, I'm not going to be doing so much of a political calculus as I am a calculus of what message needs to be heard by the American people. ... And that would surely take me to Iowa as well as the other early states."

But Romney has not been back to Iowa since late October, when he was there to campaign with Gov. Terry Branstad (R). He has focused much more heavily on New Hampshire.

King, a fiercely conservative congressman whose endorsement will undoubtedly provide a boost, lamented the fact that Romney's Mormon faith may have damaged his 2008 campaign. "I have great respect for Mitt Romney, and I think he was criticized for his religion unjustly in the last campaign -- and I've been clear about that," King said. "Anybody that has more kids and fewer vices than I have, I'm not gonna be judging, Okay?"

Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) is leading Sen. John Ensign (R) in a survey conducted for Heller's campaign, the clearest sign yet that Heller is moving toward challenging the embattled senator.

"I am taking a serious look at the race for U.S. Senate," Heller said in a statement first reported by the Las Vegas Sun's Jon Ralston. "I will announce my decision in the very near future."

The poll, conducted by The Tarrance Group's Dave Sackett, shows Heller leading by a 53 percent to 38 percent margin. In the wake of a sex scandal, Ensign's support among Republican primary voters has vanished; he trails by huge margins in Washoe County, where Reno is, and in rural Nevada. Even in Clark County, home of Las Vegas, Ensign trails among those voters who know both candidates.

Even in a multi-candidate field, Ensign would not benefit from a split ballot. A survey that included several other prominent Republicans, including 2010 Senate nominee Sharron Angle and 2010 Senate candidates Danny Tarkanian and John Chachas, still showed Heller leading by 16 points.

Heller represents the biggest threat to Ensign, but Ensign's re-election prospects aren't good no matter who he faces. Many wondered whether Heller would get into the race, after skipping a 2010 matchup against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Republicans worked hard to get Heller off the sidelines, showing him polling that had him well ahead of Reid. Ultimately, Heller opted against a 2010 run.

His reluctance seems to have diminished, and the survey becomes the clearest indication yet that Heller will move to challenge Ensign.

After admitting to an affair and in the middle of an ethics investigation, Ensign's popularity is so low that few believe he can win another term. Still, Ensign is making moves toward a bid, holding a political strategy meeting at the National Republican Senatorial Committee earlier this month and setting up fundraisers for his bid.

Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.) filed paperwork Monday with the Federal Election Commission to run in 2012 for a 22nd term.

First reported by Roll Call, his statement of candidacy is only the first step toward a re-election bid -- Rangel can still change his mind should he decide not to run. The Harlem congressman, who would be 82 in 2012, survived a Democratic primary challenge last cycle after an ethics investigation resulted in him losing his chairmanship of the Ways & Means Committee. Last December, Rangel was censured by the full House.

After his victory last November, Rangel had openly talked about possible successors should he leave, even naming names and hinting toward a possible retirement.

A request for comment from Rangel's office has not yet been returned.

As the euphoria in Egypt fades, Jon Stewart is concerned that Egyptians will question why the U.S. supported Hosni Mubarak's regime for almost 30 years, "We were testing you ... We had to know if you were worthy or if under duress you would perhaps give away our secrets, our freedom secrets."

Stephen Colbert hopes everyone celebrated Valentine's Day in a conservative manor, "Writing poems, sending chocolates and posting topless beefcake shots on Craigslist."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast Forward to 1:50 when Stewart reveals what democracy really looks like.

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump.

Mitt Romney holds a commanding advantage against his potential presidential rivals in the first primary state of New Hampshire, a new poll released Monday shows, a strong signal for the early frontrunner in a state he must do well in.

Romney receives 40 percent support, according to the WMUR Granite State Poll of likely Republican primary voters, 30 points more than his next closest competitor, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty tied for third, with seven percent each.

It's not a surprise the former governor of nearby Massachusetts is running strong in the Granite State - he also owns a home there. But the survey is a reminder that despite widespread concerns over his support for an individual mandate in Massachusetts - the same mandate despised by conservatives in President Obama's national health care bill - Romney's candidacy possesses enviable early strength in a critical primary state.

But Romney's rivals still have time to make inroads -- the poll found 78 percent of likely voters still haven't made up their minds.

Giuliani's second-place showing might surprise some because it's unclear if the former mayor is serious about running again in 2012. He was completely off the presidential radar screen after flaming out in 2008, but last month said he was considering another campaign.

After Pawlenty and Huckabee, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and former GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin each received six percent. Five percent backed Rep. Ron Paul, and three percent backed reality TV star and businessman Donald Trump.

Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who has already spent significant time in the Granite State, and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour finished last, attracting one percent of the vote apiece.

The poll surveyed 357 likely GOP voters and had a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points. It was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Within hours of announcing his campaign for Senate, Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., picked up two key endorsements from GOP fiscal conservatives.

FreedomWorks, the tea party-affiliated organization headed by former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, announced Monday that it's backing Flake to take over the seat Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., will vacate at the end of next year.

Earlier in the day, Flake won the backing of the Club for Growth, which has made its mission the enforcement of fiscal discipline on the Republican Party.

Club President Chris Chocola praised Flake for having the "courage" to take on his own party over spending issues.

"What's really impressive about Jeff is that he had the gust to strongly oppose the worst policies of the Bush administration and the previous Republican Congress," Chocola said in a statement.

FreedomWorks spokesperson Adam Brandon praised Flake, who has irked some of his own party members with his crusades against pork barrel spending as "a pre-tea party kind of candidate; a direct descendant of Barry Goldwater conservatism.

"He has been a rock star, someone we have leaned on - and he hasn't disappointed us yet," added Brandon.

The endorsements will give Flake financial support and ground troops from two organizations that have proven they can mobilize both - something the candidate says he desperately needs.

"Because of the strong positions I take, I'm not very popular with the Washington lobbying community," Flake notes on his campaign website.

Another leading tea party organization, the Tea Party Express, is not yet making an endorsement in the Arizona race, but spokesman Levi Russell said in an email that Flake "looks like a solid conservative and is the type of candidate who would earn support from many in the tea party movement."

Though Washington has been fixated on how possible Republican presidential candidates measured up at CPAC, several potential and already declared 2012 Senate candidates tried to make inroads at the conference as well, showing up from Florida, Texas, Indiana, Michigan and Maine.

As my colleague Kevin Brennan pointed out, the Texas Senate candidates vying for the Tea Party mantle -- former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R), who served as emcee for several hours, and Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R) -- packed their schedules, meeting with party leaders, grassroots activists and potential donors.

And of course, CPAC straw poll winner Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) has also been mentioned as a potential candidate for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R) seat -- though he's made it clear he sees himself as more likely to make another run at the presidency.

The Connecticut Tea Party Patriots held a 2012 Senate straw poll Saturday, and among the top finishers were a few familiar names from the 2010 cycle.

Linda McMahon, the 2010 Republican Senate nominee, won the straw poll while Republican Peter Schiff, who finished third in the Senate Republican primary, placed second

Third place was a tie between former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) (who finished second to McMahon in the Senate race) and former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R), who lost a nail-biter of a gubernatorial race to Gov. Dan Malloy (D).

You have to go all the way to number four to find a 2010 candidate who won a seat: state Sen. Scott Franz (R). Finishing after Franz was Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton (R), who was a gubernatorial candidate in 2010 before running for Lieutenant Governor.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) isn't waiting to see who else jumps in the race to replace Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.). On Monday, the state's senior senator threw her support behind Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, who so far is winning the endorsement war with her early and rapid start.

Hahn, who announced her campaign the same day Harman said she would step down Tuesday to head the bipartisan Woodrow Wilson Center, spent last week and this weekend touting other key endorsements, including Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Assembly Speaker John Perez, former Los Angeles Lakers point guard Magic Johnson, along with several local mayors and labor support. Harman has said she'll remain neutral in the race to replace her, which will likely be held in June.

The two women whose entrance could change the race's dynamics still haven't made a decision - Secretary of State Debra Bowen and progressive activist Marcy Winograd, who challenged Harman twice in the Democratic primary. Both women are more liberal than the moderate Hahn, and Winograd indicated last week she wasn't happy with Hahn's support for Israel and that she was considering running if there wasn't a progressive alternative. Bowen has said she's heavily considering the race, but so far hasn't made an official announcement, although she has informed state party leaders she intends to run.

Redistricting talk is ramping up in the Lone Star state, as the Census Bureau anticipates releasing local-level population counts for Texas as early as the middle of this week.

To nobody's surprise, Members of Congress have been in touch with state lawmakers involved in the process, a development not lost on one state Senator who serves on a redistricting panel.

"It's been gratifying to know how many congressmen are now my closest friends," said state Sen. Craig Estes (R), according to the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram.

Why is Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) suddenly all over the map?

The Bay State governor, re-elected to a second term in November, has said he wants to brag about Massachusetts. Recently, he's taken that braggadocio to some strange places, sitting down with DNC chairman Tim Kaine and David Axelrod, Patrick's one-time chief strategist.

Patrick is close with Pres. Obama, and he's certainly a short-lister if and when certain Cabinet positions open up (He's been mentioned for Attorney General). But maybe there's a more immediate position coming open in which Patrick might be interested: Chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Kaine, after all, is getting serious pressure to run for a seat being vacated by Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.), in order to give Democrats a fighting chance to hold Webb's seat. The next DNC chairman serves at Obama's pleasure, and that person could play a key role in Obama's 2012 re-election bid. After rewarding one key ally in Kaine, Obama might follow the pattern and bring on another long-time ally.

A senior Democratic source threw some water on that idea, noting Patrick and Kaine sat down before Webb made his Senate announcement. Still, keep an eye on Patrick. He's ramping up his national profile for a reason, and it's not just for his health.

A Patrick spokesperson wasn't immediately reachable.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) is headed to Iowa in March to headline a Chairman's Dinner, the Iowa Republican Party announced Monday.

On March 15, Barbour will be the featured guest at a dinner to kick off a series of events "designed to support and prepare county organizations for the 2012 presidential cycle," according to a release from the state party.

A "key feature of the statewide fundraising campaign will be highlighting a national political leader at each event," the release said.

Barbour was last in Iowa in late October 2010 to campaign for Gov. Terry Branstad (R).

Over the weekend, Barbour delivered an address at CPAC in Washington, but didn't tip his hand as to whether he will run for president. His decision to head to Iowa in March is the latest sign that he may be inching toward a bid.

On Sunday, Barbour defended his lobbying background in an appearance on Fox News. Following his appearance, a report revealed that the term-limited governor had previously lobbied on behalf of Mexico, working on legislation to provide a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants living in the United States.

Sen. Jim Webb's (D-Va.) decision to not seek re-election leaves a big gap for Old Dominion Democrats as the state's bench of top-tier political talent is relatively thin, especially after losing three House Democrats in last year's midterms. Virginia Democratic strategists said that Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine, the commonwealth's former governor, would have the right of first refusal for the party's nomination.

But while Kaine's fundraising ability and name identification as a popular former governor puts him in pole position if he chooses to run, the Democratic field would be wide-open if he stayed out - with a laundry list of candidates who might look at the race. Here's a look at the strengths and weaknesses of some prospective candidates:

The West Virginia Secretary of State's office held a random drawing Sunday for ballot positions in the special gubernatorial primaries, and a little bit of luck -- both good and bad -- could end up being a factor in how the respective party primaries ultimately turn out.

Mine-drilling consultant Bill Maloney will appear first on the Republican ballot. Former Secretary of State Betty Ireland, a perceived front-runner, will appear seventh out of 8 names on the GOP ballot.

Of the generally regarded front-runners in the Democratic field, acting-Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin will appear atop the Democratic ballot, while the only woman on the Democratic side, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D), also regarded as a front-runner, will appear at the very bottom, as the last of six names.

Will the ballot positions matter? As a report in the Charleston Daily Mail points out, candidates can gain 1 to 3 percentage points in primary elections by being listed first, according a 2008 study of three decades of elections results in California that was published in Public Opinion Quarterly. A separate study of the 1998 New York City Democratic primary found ballot position could affect the outcomes of races.

A primary within a primary in the race to replace retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) was on full display at CPAC over the weekend. Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R), who served as emcee for several hours Thursday, and Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R) are expected to compete for many of the same voters in next year's Republican primary. The pair had packed schedules - meeting with party leaders, grassroots activists and potential donors - at the annual conservative conference in Washington.

Williams and Cruz both appeal to Tea Partiers and the more conservative elements of the already considerably conservative Republican party in Texas. When Hutchison announced her retirement in January, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), who has gained a reputation as a conservative kingmaker, identified Cruz and Williams as the two candidates that most intrigued him in the Lone Star state.

Texas Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst is expected to officially enter the race within the next few months, and most handicappers consider Dewhurst the early favorite thanks to his wide name recognition and enormous personal wealth. But some Republicans - most notably, DeMint - have questioned Dewhurst's conservative bona fides. And with a crowded Republican field, it appears unlikely that Dewhurst - or any other candidate - would garner the 50 percent of the vote necessary to avoid a runoff and win the nomination outright.

With Dewhurst playing the role of the establishment front-runner, the second spot in a potential runoff could be filled by a Tea Party-backed candidate - and Cruz and Williams represent the most likely options. Both candidates were billing themselves as the most conservative choice in their meetings at CPAC.

Following Sen. Jon Kyl's (R-Ariz.) retirement announcement late last week, much of the talk about who will replace Arizona's junior senator has focused on the Republican side. Rep. Jeff Flake (R) is making his bid official today, as other Republicans continue to ponder the race.

But some Democrats see a unique opportunity for their party to capture the open seat. While Democrats now should have a better chance at picking up the seat than against Kyl, there are several notable factors that will make it difficult for them to win in 2012.

As long as border security remains a hot button issue for Arizona voters, Democrats running statewide in Arizona will have to perform a political high wire act -- striking a balance between convincing voters they have an effective plan to deal with the border, but not alienating an influential Hispanic voting bloc that is turned off by measures like SB 1070, the state's controversial immigration law.

SNL has part three of FNC host Bill O'Reilly's sit down with President Obama. SNL's Jason Sudeikis as O'Reilly, "I'm not saying you're wrong. You could be right, you could be right, I just don't know."

David Letterman can't believe it's already been five years since Dick Cheney shot a friend during a hunting trip.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00 for part three of O'Reilly's interview with Obama. Then let us know what you think of Sudeikis's impression in our Late Night Poll.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) will officially announce Monday morning that he is running for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jon Kyl (R), according to a Republican source familiar with the decision. The news was first reported by the Arizona Republic Sunday afternoon. Flake will be the first candidate to officially declare his intention to run for the seat, and will instantly be regarded as a front-runner in the race.

In the days following Kyl's announcement, a Flake run began to look like a likely proposition, so the news does not come as a surprise. Shortly after Kyl's retirement announcement last week, the Club for Growth urged Flake to run, and Republicans in the state confirmed his interest in the race.

Flake has built a reputation as a fiscal conservative and has staked out a position of strong opposition to earmarks, so spending will likely become a central focus of his campaign.

The list of other Republicans also reportedly eying the race includes Rep. Trent Franks (R), former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) and several other potential candidates. Former Rep. John Shadegg (R) and Gov. Jan Brewer (R) have announced that they will not seek the seat.

According to his most recent fundraising report, Flake had $627K cash on hand at the end of 2010.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) won another CPAC straw poll, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) finishing second, giving us all a little bit of déjà vu, as last year's straw poll yielded the same result. The media loves to hype the poll, but in recent years, it has rarely been an accurate indicator of overall GOP sentiment: Romney won it in 2007, 2008 and 2009, but was not the GOP's presidential nominee in 2008.

The path to a Senate majority is looking increasingly encouraging for Republicans, but the prospect of messy primaries still has to worry Republican strategists. With Sen. Jim Webb's (D-Va.) retirement, the GOP is now favored in North Dakota and Nebraska, and the races in Virginia and Montana are, at best, toss-ups for Democrats. Those seats alone, without any GOP losses, would add up to 51.

But with Sen. Jon Kyl's (R-Ariz.) retirement and a Tea Party to challenge to Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), the map could still get muddled. Democrats don't have much opportunity to go on offense this cycle, but if GOP divisions allow a weak candidate to emerge in Arizona and prevents Snowe from winning re-nomination, all bets are off.

While the talk this week in Virginia circulated around whether Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine represents the top talent for state Democrats, the GOP primary shows that many Republicans are content settling on a single big name too. None of the commonwealth's eight congressional representatives or three statewide office holders are challenging former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) and only one Tea Party candidate has so far declared while others are waiting until after this year's local elections to decide.

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) spent a lot of this week reaching out to Tea Partiers: he first attended the Tea Party Express forum, and then spoke at CPAC, where reaction to him was mixed at best. He also received an American Conservative Union rating of 100 for last year -- well above his lifetime average. The result of all this outreach is unclear, but Sen. Mike Lee's (R-Utah) decision not to endorse Hatch in the Republican primary isn't a good sign.

National Journal and Hotline were back for the final day of CPAC, including the not-so-surprising straw poll results. Here are the key takeaways and nuggets from Saturday's speeches and events:

--Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour had an unfortunate speaking time slot: early Saturday morning. While the potential 2012 presidential candidate may not have gotten as loud a reception from a possibly sleepy crowd, he did give a pointed criticism of the Obama administration, and invoked the GOP's patron saint (and Barbour's former boss) Ronald Reagan.

--Of course the most foreign-policy-centric of all the day's speeches came from John Bolton. The former UN Ambassador sharply criticized President Obama's reaction to the recent revolt in Egypt, painting the administration's foreign policy as indecisive. ""I don't know what time it is in Cairo ... we will have to see what our government's position is at the moment," said Bolton.

--The annual straw poll results were once again dominated by libertarian-hero Ron Paul, although the Texas congressman remains a longshot to win the GOP nomination should he run. Paul's lopsided and unsurprising win further underscored the CPAC divide between the GOP faithful and Paul's quixotic ideas. Evidence of the deep rift? When Paul was flashed as the winner, his supporters' cheers were nearly matched by the boos in the ballroom.

--The results of course aren't scientific, but the ability of Paul's supporters has forced the ACU each year to defend holding the poll. Outgoing ACU president David Keene told reporters after the results that the big news was the strength Mitt Romney showed -- even though some still question his conservative bona fides, particularly on health care. Keene also noted that while he supported Romney in 2008, he hasn't made a pick yet.

--Freshman Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) closed out the conference with a speech that was crowd-pleasing but largely absent of the rhetorical bomb-throwing that made him a celebrity within the Tea Party movement. Some of the biggest cheers came when West called for continued support for Israel and talked of slashing government programs.

Closing out the three-day CPAC conference Saturday evening, Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) didn't employ much of the heated rhetoric that he became known for in his congressional campaigns. But using forceful language, the tea-party freshman laid out his own policy-heavy vision for the conservative movement, including cutting spending, maintaining a robust military and touting an aggressive foreign policy against terrorism.

Beginning by thanking attendees for their hard work they'd done to make the 2010 elections a success for the GOP - his close defeat of incumbent Democrat Ron Klein included--West relished the fact that he'd been the subject of attacks from the "liberal progressive agenda" and from the "liberal media."

And as for the tea party movement, which has faced criticism that they are not diverse enough, West jabbed, "For those who call you racist, perhaps they should see who's standing here as your keynote speaker."

Ticking off Democratic attacks that that had worked to tie him to a controversial motorcycle gang during his campaign, and a furor that emerged after he initially tapped controversial talk radio host Joyce Kaufman as his chief of staff, West said those only made him more resolved to fight back. West said he'd been named Keith Olbermann's "Worst Person In the World" five times, "and he got fired for it," as loud cheers erupted over the liberal MSNBC host's departure last month.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) won his second consecutive CPAC presidential straw poll on Saturday, much to the chagrin of many conservatives attending the annual conference, whose boos clashed with the cheers of Paul's loyal legion of supporters.

Paul won with 30 percent of the vote, besting former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 23 percent. The results were remarkably similar as 2010, when Paul bested Romney, 31 to 22 percent.

Another libertarian-minded potential presidential candidate, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, finished a distant third, winning six percent -- tied with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who did not attend the conference. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich took five percent. Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), only won 2 percent, after campaigning in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Sarah Palin, who declined an invitation to the conference, took 3 percent. And Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour tied for last place (with Obama's Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman), winning just one percent of vote.

The straw poll -- while not scientific -- was conducted by Republican pollster Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates; 3,742 conference attendees were surveyed, a significant spike from last year's turnout.

The result was hardly unexpected, as Paul's contingent of supporters vastly outnumbered those of any other presidential hopeful on the ballot. Paul's overwhelming turnout can be attributed partially to the congressman's Campaign for Liberty group, which purchased hundreds - if not thousands - of tickets for his devotees, whom Paul had encouraged to barnstorm the event.

"It will tell the country a whole lot about the enthusiasm the young people have for liberty," Paul said in a video inviting his fans to attend CPAC, which was posted online in late December.

Indeed, some of the other candidates and their staffers quietly complained that Paul had once again hijacked the process by encouraging his supporters to attend the event en masse, giving him an undeniable advantage when the ballots were cast.

"When you stack the deck, you've got a good chance to win," businessman Herman Cain told National Journal on Friday, acknowledging with some frustration that Paul would be the likely victor. Cain finished with two percent of the vote.

Despite the media hype surrounding the straw poll, it has rarely served in recent years as an accurate indicator of overall GOP sentiment, or even conservative presidential preferences. Romney perhaps best exemplifies the straw poll's reputation of being little more than a political beauty contest; he won the contest three consecutive years - 2007, 2008 and 2009 - but failed to secure the GOP nomination in 2008.

Paul's straw poll victory does little to change the conventional wisdom that he remains unlikely to compete for - much less secure - the GOP nomination. But it does highlight the increasing disconnect between grassroots activists and establishment Republicans.

Full results are below the jump:

While Egypt has largely been absent from the speeches of potential 2012 presidential candidates at CPAC the last couple of days, former Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton (R) wasn't shy about weighing in Saturday, offering a sharp rebuke of Pres. Obama's reaction to recent developments in the region.

"We have swung one way, and then the other," said Bolton, who argued the Obama administration's policy has been inconsistent. "I don't know what time it is in Cairo ... we will have to see what our government's position is at the moment."

Bolton focused almost exclusively on foreign policy Saturday, discussing events in several areas across the globe. He offered a familiar Republican refrain, saying "we do not accept an American president who is weak, indecisive and apologetic about our country."

Bolton, who served in the administrations of George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush, has floated the possibility that he may run for president. He didn't discuss a potential bid in his speech Saturday.

Bolton will be a decided underdog if he runs. A Bolton campaign -- much like his speech at CPAC -- would likely focus heavily on foreign policy.

"I encourage all of you, when you go home from this conference, to work to return U.S. national security to the center of our political debate over the next two years," said Bolton.

On the closing day of the nation's largest gathering of conservative activists, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour didn't mince words.

While the two-term Republican didn't tip his hand as to whether he'll run for president in his Saturday morning talk, he offered pointed criticisms of the current White House occupant.

Barbour called the Obama administration "more hostile to job creation than any other I've ever seen.'' The GOP's 2010 election sweep was "the greatest repudiation of a president and party in American history.'' And the president's energy policy? "Catastrophic.''

For all of his strong language, Barbour did little to rile up the crowd, possibly because his speech was scheduled early on last day of the three-day Conservative Action Political Action Conference. Barbour, who presided over big gains for the GOP last year in his just-completed term as head of the Republican Governor's Association, is a formidable fundraiser and organizer but he's been a lobbyist -- just the the kind of a good-ol'-boy Washington insider whom tea party activists love to loathe.

Reaching out to both fiscal and social conservatives, Barbour boasted of cutting state spending and cracking down on abortion in his home state. He railed against President Obama's health care legislation and tarred his broader agenda as "bent on fulfulling the pent- up demands of every frustrated liberal at the expense of the public good and contrary to the will of the people.''

But the former Republican National Committee chairman also cautioned his party, which he said was partly to blame for the federal government's overspending in recent years.

"They didn't give us a mandate to govern. They gave us a chance to earn their trust and support,'' he said. "So now let's make the most of it.''

This Sunday brings Egypt to the forefront once again with Egyptian Pres. Hosni Mubarak stepping down Friday. CNN's "State of the Union" will speak with former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Negroponte, former U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Edward Walker and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), then talk to White House Budget Director Jacob Lew about the president's budget.

Over on NBC, "Meet the Press" will report on the latest events in Egypt and then sits down with House Speaker John Boehner. Boehner will discuss whether Republicans can find common ground with Pres. Obama and how the Republicans will deal with the Tea Party.

"This Week" hosts two potential 2012 presidential candidates, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R). Host Christiane Amanpour will sit down with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak to discuss the situation in Egypt.

"Fox News Sunday" discusses spending and the current budget deficit with Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and then switches to the 2012 GOP primary and the potential candidates. Host Chris Wallace talks with Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) about the potentials and this weekend's CPAC conference in Washington.

"Face The Nation" will feature Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Egyptian Nobel Laureates Mohamed ElBaradei and Ahmed Zewail, and Egyptian Ambassador to the U.S. Sameh Shoukry.

In a speech that appeared aimed directly at conservatives wary of his stance on social issues, Indiana Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels bluntly warned participants at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday against spurning candidates and issues capable of attracting broad public support.

"Purity in martyrdom is for suicide bombers," said Daniels, whose potential 2012 presidential candidacy has been defined by his critique of the some of his party's most ardent activists. He also called not-so-subtly for a shift in the party's political tone.

"I submit that, as we ask Americans to join us on such a boldly different course," Daniels said, "it would help if they liked us, just a bit."

Daniels' speech was markedly different than those given at the conference by other prospective GOP presidential candidates, who mostly struck to red meat for the party's base. Though the governor did take a few early jabs at President Obama, he seemed less interested in catering to his than in challenging to reach beyond its orthodoxy "to unify America, or enough of it, to demand and sustain the big change we propose."

Some conservatives have criticized Daniels for calling for a GOP "truce" on social issues so it can focus the party can focus on the economy. Daniels never referenced the controversy directly in his speech, but he did say the party must attract supporters who aren't plugged into politics or conservative commentary.

"We must be the vanguard of recovery, but we cannot do it alone," he told a packed house in an after-dinner talk. "We have learned in Indiana, big change requires big majorities. We still need people who never tune in to Rush or Glenn or Laura or Sean," Daniels said, referring to talk show hosts Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Laura Ingraham and Sean Hannity. "Who surf past C-SPAN to get to SportsCenter."

National Journal and Hotline were back for day two of CPAC - an early cattle call for 2012 potential presidential candidates, who had a chance to make their pitches. Here are the key takeaways and nuggets from Friday's speeches:

--The day kicked off with former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.), who already had to meet high expectations as the presumed frontrunner of the crowd. Deep in the red meat, Romney wasn't afraid to criticize Obama, especially his foreign policy. "I surely hope that at some point in the near future, the President will finally be able to construct a foreign policy, any foreign policy," said Romney. Notable omissions: Egypt, which was sucking the air out of the presidentials wannabes' room and health care, which could be Romney's Achilles heel.

--Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), who received a rock star's reception from his faithful followers who had packed the ballroom, was the only of the potential 2012'ers who addressed the turmoil in Egypt at any length, linking the situation there to the U.S. financial situation and criticizing U.S. foreign policy "for propping up the puppet dictator all those years."

--Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty's (R-Minn.) performance this year was a marked improvement from his speech last year--although he did have a second round of unlucky timing. Pawlenty spoke at the same time as Obama's statement on Egypt this year; last year, he was up against Tiger Woods' infamous press conference on his multiple affairs. Pawlenty was firmer and sharper this go-around, in an almost "prosecutorial indictment" of Obama. He also had a fleeting reference to Egypt, mentioning the Muslim Brotherhood as an enemy.

--Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) may be one of the bravest souls at CPAC this weekend, literally going into the lions den to talk to conservative militants wing of his party who may try to oust him in a primary. He appeared on a panel with FreedomWorks CEO Matt Kibbe, whose organization is looking at replacing Hatch with a more consistent conservative. Hatch, who conceded he "probably made a mistake" in voting for the TARP bailout, received a mixed reception If the six-term senator does face a tea party candidate and wins, he'll have written the playbook for how to handle such a challenge - engage your critics instead of running from them.

Take Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee out of the 2012 presidential mix, says Al Cardenas, new chair of the American Conservative Union: If they were serious about running, "they'd probably be here."

Interviewed at the end of the second busy day of his organization's Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, Cardenas dismissed the chances of the two high-profile no-shows.

"Both Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin would be formidable contenders, but are unlikely to be nominees," he told On Call. "But my sense is they're not serious about running because I would think they'd probably be here if they were."

CPAC has long been a critical cattle call for contenders prepping for a presidential bid. But this year, Cardenas said, "the shoppers are going to be more cautious.

"We have the most activists in attendance we've ever had, and more than 10 potential presidential wannabes," he continued. "I'm getting a sense that this year, unlike previous years, there's more caution in the air in terms of our activists trying to figure out who their favorite presidential candidate is... [because] no one wants to get it wrong this time. There's a lot at stake."

Cardenas confirmed that he'll be reconsidering the ACU's relationship with GOProud, whose participation set off a boycott by some conservative activists and whose leader, Chris Barron, had to apologize after calling ACU board member Cleta Mitchell "a nasty bigot" for opposing the gay rights group's participation.

"We're going to review what inclusivity means," Cardenas told On Call. But he seemed to reaffirm the big tent philosophy behind the invite to GOProud.

"Obviously we open our arms to all Americans, and regardless of your sexual preference or religion or ethnic origin or gender; if you're a conservative, you're welcome here," said Cardenas.

"The question isn't if it's a gay organization or not," he added, but whether it is an organization that espouses "principles counter to a conservative movement."

If Mitt Romney is the polished, can-do former executive poised to turn the economy around, a slightly hoarse Tim Pawlenty is the coach who pumps up the team by invoking a winning record, love of country and God.

The two former governors and leading Republican challengers to President Obama gave a preview of their presidential primary contest in contrasting speeches Friday to the Conservative Political Action Conference.

Take, for example, their differing styles on criticizing Obama's foreign policy. Coach Pawlenty: "Mr. President, with bullies, might makes right. Strength makes them submit. We need to get tough with our enemies -- not on our friends.''

And the Power Point version from Romney: ""It is my sincere hope that at some point in the near future, the President will finally be able to construct a foreign policy, any foreign policy. That will be a change."

The biggest difference between them: Pawlenty is running on his record as governor. Romney is not. The reason is obvious: one of Romney's signature achievements in Massachusetts was spearheading a law that requires most people to buy health insurance - just like the much-maligned "Obamacare'' in Washington that the GOP vows to repeal.

Pawlenty didn't mention his likely foe by name, but he took plenty of shots at the so-called individual mandate to purchase insurance.

"The individual mandate reflects completely backwards thinking,'' he said. "They, the bureaucrats, don't tell us what to do. We, the people, tell the government what to do!''

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is keeping in close touch with former incumbents who lost in the 2010 Republican landslide, chairman Steve Israel said Friday, in hopes of recruiting those former members to run again in 2012.

Israel holds weekly conference calls with members who lost in 2010, and a large number of members participate on a weekly basis, he said during an interview to air on Sunday on C-SPAN's Newsmakers program.

"A very high percentage of former members are very interested" in running again, Israel added. He refused to name any names, but many who lost in 2010 are young enough to consider taking another shot at running for Congress.

Israel has already visited several states on recruiting trips. In December, he met with both Harry Mitchell and Ann Kirkpatrick, Arizona Democrats who lost their seats in 2010. He has also traveled to Illinois and Minnesota, and another DCCC representative, Rep. Allyson Schwartz, recently returned from a trip to Washington State.

Still, it is unlikely many of those former members will say publicly they are running again until a redistricting process is complete, especially if they represented states in which Republicans control the redistricting process. Being too open about one's plans can invite Republicans to draw unfavorable district lines, he said. And many decisions depend on just how those district lines are drawn.

"A lot of [former members] are saying they're interested, but they have to see how their district is drawn," he said. Even if they can't announce a campaign immediately, Israel is still encouraging them to line up prospective donors, staffers and supporters before making their campaigns official.

It was clear when Rep. Ron Paul took the stage that he was the reason many CPAC attendees were there.

The day's loudest applause greeted the Texas Congressman upon his entrance in the room, and, echoing the movement that enveloped his 2008 presidential bid, he noted upon taking the podium: "Glad to see the revolution is continuing."

Paul hit hard on his signature rhetoric about the looming destruction of the U.S. dollar, but used events in Egypt to illustrate his point that "the federal reserve creates money out of thin air."

"A lot of people now say, 'What should our position be?'" he said. "And I would say, 'We need to do a lot less a lot sooner, not only in Egypt, but around the world.

"Some people want to argue about that and say we have a moral responsibility to spread our goodness around this world," Paul continued. "But guess what? The government is crumbling, and the people are upset. Not only with the government, but with us for propping up the puppet dictator all those years."

Cue a long stream of audience cheers -- along with scattered jeers from the more traditional conservative crowd.

When Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty made his CPAC debut as a potential presidential candidate last year, his performance fell flat, leading many pundits to question whether he was ready for prime time.

Fast-forward one year later, and the now-former governor got a much improved reception. He delivered a rip-roaring speech that read like a prosecutorial indictment of the Obama administration, attacking the president on the gamut of issues ranging from health care, foreign policy and his handling of the economy.

He accused the president of being a weak leader who appeased enemies while undermining our allies. He was one of the few speakers to make (a subtle) reference to the crisis in Egypt, saying that one of our adversaries in the world is the Muslim Brotherhood, which could gain influence in a post-Mubarak Egypt.

"Mr. President, with bullies, might makes right; strength makes them submit," Pawlenty said to one of the loudest ovations of the day. "And, Mr. President, stop apologizing for our country. The bullies, terrorists, and tyrants of the world have lots to apologize for. America does not."

He even trotted out a Jimmy Carter comparison, in talking about Obama's health care law.

"Barack Obama is not behaving like Ronald Reagan! He's behaving like Jimmy Carter!" Pawlenty said, to applause. "The individual mandate in Obamacare is a page right out of the Jimmy Carter playbook."

Pawlenty delivered numerous zingers throughout the speech, including one directed at former MSNBC anchor Keith Olbermann. "The federal government spends out money the way Keith Olbermann talks: too much, without a point, and it leaves our whole country confused."

Continuing his campaign to woo conservatives to his side, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) spoke at CPAC this afternoon, telling the audience he is "prepared to be the most hated man in this godforsaken city" by fighting spending increases and taking on the establishment.

But when a questioner asked Hatch why attendees should trust him given his vote in support of the TARP bailout, Hatch was forced on the defensive, acknowledging he "probably made a mistake" but he cast the vote in order to avoid a depression.

"We're Republicans," he said, amid some boos from the audience. "We can disagree with each other but we can be civil, too." He told the questioner that "you're not sitting there making decisions."

The heated exchange prompted National Tax Limitation Committee founder Lew Uhler, a panelist alongside Hatch, to rise in the senator's defense, and offer a vigorous defense for his conservative bona fides.

"I've been in the trenches with this man!" Uhler said, criticizing them for booing, and suggested they were displaying a mob mentality.

Hatch is one of several Republican senators up for re-election who faces the prospect of a serious challenge from his right. In Utah, activists hold disproportionate influence over the nomination process, making it easier for a small number of disaffected conservatives to oust a sitting senator.

Hatch has been working assiduously to win his skeptics over, appearing at a Tea Party Express town hall earlier this week, and addressing CPAC today. He's also been voting on a party-line basis, and he scored a perfect 100 percent rating on the American Conservative Union's latest ratings - tying him with Tea Party favorite, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.)

Roughly two hours before businessman Herman Cain is scheduled to take the stage at CPAC, he still doesn't know exactly what he's going to say.

Cain told Hotline on Call that he prefers when giving major speeches to let the audience dictate his message, a free-wheeling style that's practically unheard of among presidential hopefuls.

"I have some idea of what I'm going to say, of course," Cain said, laughing. "My outline is in my mind. I already know the first 80 percent of what I'm gonna talk about, but that last 20 percent I don't figure out until after I get in front of the audience. I like to get a feel for the audience and read their reaction to certain things, and based upon their reaction I'll decide where to go next."

Beyond that, Cain said he's the only one of the potential GOP presidential nominees who will deliver his speech to CPAC without using notes -- and he's proud of it. "I speak so much that I really don't need any help," Cain said. "I don't use notes, I don't use a script and I don't need a teleprompter."

"All of these speakers you see on stage have a prop," Cain said. "It might be a full speech; it might be an outline of notes. I'm going to be the only speaker at CPAC who walks out there with nothing. Watch me."

You don't need to be an aspiring presidential candidate to draw a crowd at CPAC - just look like one.

A Sarah Palin impersonator - down to her red shirt and trademark glasses - caused a stir as she walked through the hotel hallways here, her appearance a close enough facsimile to the former vice presidential nominee that many people let out a yell when they saw her. Discovering she wasn't actually Palin didn't stop hordes of people from taking pictures with her - including real presidential candidate Herman Cain.

The former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and one of the race's few declared candidates played along, giving the fake-Palin a hug and joking about how glad he was to finally meet the conservative icon.
The impersonator wasn't the only side-show who helped the hotel lobby feel like a circus -hours after she left, former New York gubernatorial candidate Jimmy McMillan, of the "Rent Is Too Damn High" party, drew an even larger crowd. Soon, he was leading a chant of -- what else -- "the rent is too damn high."

As McMillan walked through the hallways, he bumped into and shook hands with Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), minutes before he was to speak at CPAC.

Why McMillan, who ran for governor of New York last year, is at CPAC is unclear, but he promised a "big announcement" at 3 p.m.

Those who wonder if South Dakota Sen. John Thune has the fire in the belly to run for president can keep wondering.

He delivered a perfectly competent but uninspiring speech at the Conservative Action Political Conference on Friday. He was like a good band that falls flat in a live concert, playing the hits the audience wants to hear, but without any improvisation or newfound passion.

Thune frequently drew polite applause but only one standing ovation after he said: "We need to use lawful interrogation techniques to acquire actionable intelligence. And when we're done interrogating terrorists, we should give them their day in court -- in a military tribunal, not an American courtroom.''

He made sure not to close the door on speculation about his potential campaign by slyly mocking his higher-profile competitors. Never held a book signing or been on a reality TV show other than C-SPAN, he said.

"I've been to Iowa plenty of times, but it's usually on the way to South Dakota,'' he said, drawing chuckles.

Later in the speech, recalling a conversation with his wife after losing an election, he said: "It's important to be in the race. It's important to be in the arena. It's important to be out there standing up and fighting for the things that we believe in.''

Businessman Herman Cain may have just let the cat out of the bag for his friend and political role model, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Cain, who's slated to address CPAC at 4:30 today, told Hotline on Call that Gingrich has purchased office space in Atlanta that will serve as headquarters for a presidential campaign that Cain says is all but official.

"He's in the race," Cain said unequivocally. "Look, he's already bought space. I live in Atlanta, and I've got my spies out. He's running."

Cain had previously told Hotline on Call that Gingrich and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) are the two potential candidates whom he could support for president. But surprisingly, Cain said Gingrich entering the race will encourage -- not deter -- him from doing the same.

"Newt will help elevate the debate and the discourse," Cain said. "With Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain up there on that debate stage, we're gonna be bringing the red meat. I don't want to be up there against three people who are using same, old political rhetoric. That doesn't bode well for the Republican Party."

Cross Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer's (R) name off the list of Republicans who might seek the seat being vacated by Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.).

"You can bet that I'll be following the 2012 race closely as it has serious ramifications for Arizona," Brewer said in a Thursday statement. "I will not, however, involve myself in this contest as a candidate. Arizona faces serious issues and needs a full-time governor, and I intend to see this state's recovery to completion."

Brewer's name had been floated as a possible GOP candidate after Kyl announced his retirement Thursday. She is term-limited and can't seek reelection in 2014. A long list of Republicans may enter the race for the Senate seat, including Rep. Jeff Flake (R), who appears to be readying a bid.

Mitt Romney was the first likely presidential contender to address the Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday, but he still had a tough act to follow.

Himself.

A high bar loomed for the frontrunning Republican for the 2012 nomination, a three-time winner of the conference's straw poll, and a former governor with a record on social issues and health care reform that gives some conservatives pause.

Romney met expectations and received a rousing reception similar to the one he received upon dropping out of the presidential race at the conference in 2008, but he didn't bring the house down, either. He sounded like a polished frontrunner, delivering a forceful and animated case against the Obama administration.

"It's going to take a lot more than new rhetoric to put Americans back to work--it's going to take a new president,'' Romney said.

Romney focused the beginning of his speech on foreign policy, offering sharp jibes against Obama.

"An uncertain world has been made more dangerous by the lack of clear direction from a weak President," he said. "I surely hope that at some point in the near future, the President will finally be able to construct a foreign policy, any foreign policy."

But Romney made no mention about the crisis in Egypt currently testing the administration - a notable omission.

Romney also delivered some well-received zingers on the president's domestic policy, calling his economic program the "most expensive failed social experiment in modern history." But he barely mentioned the Republican party's top target -- "Obamacare,'' -- which, like the health care plan Romney spearheaded in Massachusetts, requires most people to buy insurance.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (R-Texas) has jumped into what's shaping up to be a long race for the number two Senate GOP spot against Senate Republican Conference Chairman Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.)

An Alexander versus Cornyn race for the Republican Whip position held by Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) was always likely because Kyl is term-limited as Whip, GOP aides said.

But his announcement Thursday that he will not seek reelection accelerated maneuvering and prompted public announcements. Cornyn at first declined to comment on the Whip post, but aides made his intentions clear after Alexander's move. With Kyl planning to remain in his leadership job through his term, two members of GOP leadership now look set for nearly two years of jostling for support from GOP senators.

The Whip job entails counting votes and sometimes leaning on senators to vote with the party. More importantly whoever wins it will become a logical successor to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as Republicans hope, Majority Leader in 2012.

Sen. Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) also announced yesterday that he will seek the Senate Republican Conference Chairman job Alexander now holds. Johanns, a former governor and Agriculture Secretary, appears to carry stature among Senate Republicans after two years of targeted success as legislating, a rarity for a freshman in the minority. A version of Johanns bill repealing a 1099 reporting requirement in the health care overhaul bill passed recently, though Democrats moved their own bill.

Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) who is mulling a presidential run, and John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), who have leadership roles, are good bets to seek more senior positions.

Updated 12:25 p.m.

Herman Cain, conservative radio personality, columnist and former chairman and CEO of Godfather's Pizza, has no shortage of charisma. But the first of the GOP field to create a presidential exploratory committee doesn't have the same national brand as many of the other potential 2012 contenders. So how does he plan to stand out in what's sure to be a crowded Republican primary contest?

"I have a very strong ground game," Cain said at a meeting of the GW College Republicans on Thursday evening. He said that he is building on his long relationships with organizations including the National Restaurant Association and Americans for Fair Taxation, and has recently taken a hiatus from his radio show to make more appearances on television, at Tea Party rallies and conventions. He's scheduled to speak at CPAC on Friday afternoon, and will travel to New Hampshire this weekend.

And Cain is looking beyond the primary: He has some ideas on how Republicans could increase turnout. Watch the video below to hear more about his strategy.

Real estate mogul and reality television star Donald Trump participated in an interview with New Hampshire's only television station last month, another sign he is taking seriously the idea of running for president.

Trump was one of a handful of candidates who participated in interviews with Manchester-based WMUR-TV. WMUR will air an hour-long special on Monday, February 14, exactly a year before the tentative date set for the first-in-the-nation primary.

WMUR's Josh McElveen sat down with Trump in New York for the interview, a source told The Hotline. This week, Trump is getting a hero's welcome at the Conservative Political Action Conference -- if not by attendees, then by reporters, dozens of whom breathlessly covered his previously unannounced speech to the annual gathering on Thursday.

Also participating in WMUR's series: Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who sat down with the station on a recent trip to the Granite State, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), ex-Sen. Rick Santorum and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson.

One notable name who won't be appearing on the show Monday night: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

In my column this week, I took a look at the legacy the Democratic Leadership Council left after more than two decades spent honing the image of the modern Democratic Party. Few organizations have been more influential on an entire political party, and yet few have generated the loathing within the Democratic Party the DLC attracts.

One Democrat who is not a fan: Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. That's understandable; during Dean's 2004 presidential run, DLC chief Al From criticized Dean's campaign as too liberal.

This week, Dean told me that criticism, and the DLC's increasing forays into politics, were the beginning of the end for the group.

"Over the last couple of years, I thought [the DLC played] a pretty destructive role," Dean said. "I was sort of a quasi-member for a while. But they were good when they were involved in policy. Where they went bad was when they got involved in politics, when they just became very divisive and the object of a lot of anger. And it sort of became a personality cult after a while."

"Where I took exception to the DLC is basically when they started supporting candidates, which they didn't officially do but they might as well have. Their policies became, 'If you don't agree with us, you're a bad Democrat, or you're on the left.' So they started off with interesting ideas, some of which have come to fruition, but ended up sort of political. That's when they began to go downhill."

The evening before former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) was scheduled to deliver a speech at CPAC, he addressed something that he's been struggling with for months: who's going to win the Stanley Cup?

After addressing supporters at a crowded Irish pub in northwest Washington, where his Freedom First PAC was sponsoring a meet-the-candidate event, Pawlenty -- a big hockey fan -- took some time with Hotline On Call to break down the field (no, not that field).

"I like Big D," Pawlenty said, referring to the Detroit Red Wings, whom he praised as remaining consistent from year to year despite "players coming and going."

But Pawlenty, whose beloved Minnesota Wild are mired in mediocrity and battling for the final playoff spot in the Western conference, also had a dark horse pick: the Los Angeles Kings, whose record is identical to the Wild's.

Pawlenty appeared genuinely relieved for the brief escape from glad-handing and posing for pictures to shoot the breeze about his favorite sport. And his appreciation showed. "Thanks for the question," Pawlenty told Hotline On Call at the end of the interview, nodding toward the mob of people ordering drinks. "And enjoy the open bar."

The Census Bureau continues to roll out state-level demographic data, giving us a keep at how the states have changed in the last decade - and how redistricting might shape up there in the next year or two. Here are some quick thoughts on this week's states: Arkansas, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, and Vermont.

-- Arkansas saw its population grow by 9%, with a doubling its Hispanic population to 6.4% of the state. The number of African Americans also increased, but their share of the state population dipped a bit.

The fastest-growing parts of the state are around Little Rock in the center of the state and in the heavily conservative northwest corner, the home of Wal-Mart and Tysons Foods, both of which have drawn Hispanic laborers. The southern and eastern parts of the state, with the exception of the Memphis suburbs, have lost population.

Democrats will control redistricting here and may try to shore up their lone remaining House member, Rep. Mike Ross, by giving him some black precincts near Little Rock. With the state trending Republican and two Blue Dog retirements leading to GOP pickups last cycle, it may be difficult for them to do much more than that, but they could try to weaken either freshman Rep. Tim Griffin or freshman Rep. Rick Crawford by shoring up the other one.

-- Iowa's population grew by 4.1% in the past decade, not enough to avoid losing a House seat in reapportionment. With a split legislature (and a civil political culture) the two parties may end up compromising on a redistricting map. The congressional delegation includes three Democrats and two Republicans.

Both Republicans' districts need to grow and none of the Democratic districts are very secure (all three held on with less than 51% of the vote in 2010), so it looks like carving up one marginal Democratic district to shore up the other incumbents may be one solution. On the presidential level, conservative western Iowa's population loss should be of some concern to Republicans in this perennial swing state. The share of the white population dropped, but whites still make up for 91% of the state population even as more Hispanics move in to work in the meatpacking industry. Hispanics now make up almost 4% of the state population.

The late night hosts go after Rep. Chris Lee, R-N.Y, for allegedly sending shirtless pictures of himself to woman who posted an ad on Craigslist. Jay Leno: "He's what they call a moderate Republican, that means he kept his pants on."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00 when David Letterman finds some more shirtless pictures of Lee. Then vote in our Late Night Poll on who had the best joke about the scandal.

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump.

Just about as soon as Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) announced his retirement plans Thursday, speculation over who will run for his seat instantly kicked into gear. And in the conservative-minded state of Arizona, the focus is primarily on the Republican side, where Rep. Jeff Flake appears to be headed toward a run and would be an early favorite.

But ideological differences between some conservatives in the state and the possibility of immigration hard-liners also entering the race could mean a competitive primary without a consensus candidate.

The Club For Growth instantly entered the mix on Thursday, urging Flake to run. Flake adamantly opposes earmarks, serves on the House Appropriations Committee and has cultivated a reputation as a fiscal conservative. Many Republicans in the state regard Flake as a potential front-runner, should he officially decide to run.

"Jeff Flake clearly is the gold standard in this race," said Arizona GOP strategist Nathan Sproul, who has worked with Flake in the past, though not in a campaign capacity. "Anybody else who gets into the race is going to be struggling to gain momentum because of how well-liked and how well-financed Jeff Flake is. Having said that, it seems plausible to me that someone could challenge Congressman Flake, but I think whoever that person is faces a very difficult challenge."

Immigration remains a dominant issue in Republican primaries in Arizona and if a candidate seen as taking a tough stance were to join the race, it could spell trouble for Flake.

"If you had a candidate with really broad appeal, who sort of owned the immigration issue, then that's the person who could beat Flake," said one Arizona Republican strategist.

Flake has joined with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in backing comprehensive immigration reform legislation, with guest-workers provisions and a path to legal citizenship. He co-sponsored a bill with liberal Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) giving illegal immigrants a path to citizenship if they paid fines and back taxes. Needless to say, those stances aren't going to sell with the hard-line immigration crowd in the state.

On Day 1 of CPAC, conservative speakers took aim at Democrats over comparisons made between President Obama and President Reagan, taking the opportunity to express how they were none too happy about liberals tainting the beloved conservative's legacy.

National Journal and Hotline were out in full force for the kickoff to this weekend's CPAC conference. Here are the key takeaways and nuggets from our reporters:

--The press loves nothing more than a new possible presidential candidate to fawn over, and they got one in Donald Trump. He wasn't in the mood to answer press questions while walking through the Marriott Wardman Park with his large entourage of handlers and bodyguards. And he was combative in his hastily-arranged speech, taking direct aim at Texas Rep. Ron Paul--the favorite of many of the libertarian-attendees and the odds-on favorite to win CPAC's presidential straw poll for the second year in a row. Paul "cannot get elected," Trump said to loud boos and some more muted cheers. "I like Ron Paul ... But he has zero chance of being elected."

--Former Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle was in the house for CPAC--and she could be added to the speaker's list over the coming days. But she shot down the presidential speculation that's buzzed around her, saying it was all just "press speculation.

--Is Dick Cheney really a surprise guest if he's the surprise guest every year? The former vice president, who also made an unannounced but rumored-about visit to CPAC last year, introduced former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who has been promoting his memoirs. The two were booed, largely by anti-war supporters of Paul, and some in the crowd were shouting "war criminal" and "draft dodger" at the duo.

--Birther alert? Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Idaho) was among the House freshmen featured this morning. In telling the crowd about being born in Puerto Rico, Labrador said ""I'm proud to be an American citizen by birth - and I do have my birth certificate to prove it." The remark was met with loud applause.

--Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) reacted to today's retirement of his No.2 in the Senate, Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.). Calling Kyl his "right hand man," McConnell said it "is a big loss for the country but the good news is he'll be here for two more years helping us fight for the right things. We're going to miss Jon Kyl.''

--There's a surprise candidate trying to work his way onto the CPAC presidential straw poll ballot--Dale Peterson. Fresh from fighting "thugs and criminals," the one-time candidate for Alabama agriculture whose campaign ad went viral last year, had a booth at the conference urging people to write in his name. Those who pledged to do so would get a Peterson-approved cowboy hat. He still does "give a rip."

Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle expects to be added as a featured speaker to the final two days of CPAC.

"I didn't know I was coming to the conference until Saturday, so that's why they weren't able to agenda-ize me," Angle told Hotline On Call. "But when they found out I was here, they said, 'We're going to fit you in,' so I guess it's to be announced."

The tea party favorite stoked presidential speculation after she showed up in Iowa last month to attend a premiere for the movie The Genesis Code. She'll attend a screening for the same movie later this month in another early presidential primary state, South Carolina. But she laughed off the idea that she's testing the presidential waters, calling it just "press speculation."

"I guess anybody who goes to Iowa has to be running for president," she said.

Angle failed in her effort to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) last year, but she's not ruling out another run for elective office at some level. She has "many, many options," she said. Angle will definitely make a presidential endorsement, she said. And it's likely to be sought-after: The backing of the Nevada tea party favorite could be key in her state's early presidential caucus.

While she doesn't have a favorite candidate yet, Angle said she'll "be looking for the one that embraces conservative constitutional principles and that will represent the values of limited government, lower taxation and less spending and personal responsibility."

In a surprise appearance at CPAC, former Vice President Dick Cheney and former two-time defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld brought out an unexpected point of contention from conservatives within the room: After Cheney took the stage to a standing ovation, he presented a tribute award to Rumsfeld, who was booed for nearly a minute. Supporters of Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, even left the room.

Still, the friendly banter between the two former Bush advisers eventually won over the crowd--Cheney joked that "maybe if we give him a third term, he might get it right"--and they all coalesced on their common ground: disdain for the current president.

"You know, I look at many of the current administration's reversals of their announced policies on national security issues, Guantanamo Bay, military commissions... the CIA, drone strikes; it makes me wonder if Dick Cheney hay had more influence on President Obama than the people who got elected," Rumsfeld said to roars from the audience.

Rumsfeld also joked with Cheney about a presidential run: "Dick, in case you were wondering, I think there's probably still time for you to file some paperwork for Iowa and New Hampshire."

But it wasn't all warm and fuzzy for the former vice president. Opponents in the crowd shouted, "war criminal" and "draft dodger" while he was speaking.

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan may spend more time with budget ledgers than budding activists, but his speech at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference shows he can sling red meat with the best of them.

"We are engaged in the battle of the American idea," Ryan said, arguing that "our rights come from nature and god, not from government."

Ryan cast fiscal policy debates as a moral challenge that must be answered with a return to "old ideas" like "liberty, freedom, [and] free enterprise."

"Economic conservatism and social conservatism come from the same moral roots," Ryan added, in what appeared to be a subtle rebuke to Republicans who have sought to separate social issues from conservatives' economic agenda. "You can't give up one to defend the other, and they must never be separated."

The conference attendees were familiar with Ryan, whose name recognition inside the beltway is not equaled by his national reputation, from the representative's turn responding to President Obama's State of the Union in January. Ryan, facing a task that has chastened more than one rising star, kept the response brief and focused on the foundation of conservatism.

"Before I thought he was boring and about the nitty-gritty," says Aaron Kidd, a student attending the conference from West Virginia, who lauded the youthful energy of Ryan, 42. "Any conservative can get up and talk about small government, but it takes someone special to relate it to people my age."

Thomas Wilbur, attending the conference from across the river in Vienna, VA, said he was impressed by Ryan's conservative policy credibility but wondered if he had the political chops and charisma to be a truly national political figure.

Controversial Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is calling top Republicans in Arizona, soliciting advice over a possible Senate run, according to sources.

Arpaio, best known for his hard line against illegal immigrants, his constant battles with the Justice Department over immigration sweeps and his forcing county inmates to wear pink underwear, is expressing at least initial interest in running for the seat that will be vacated by Sen. Jon Kyl (R) next year.

Whether his interest is a publicity stunt or a serious contemplation, the 78-year old is unlikely, in the end, to make a bid. Still, he's making it known to players in Arizona Republican circles that he wants his name included on the list of potential candidates.

Rep. Jeff Flake is expected to get in the race to succeed Kyl within days, sources close to the congressman told Hotline On Call. Meanwhile, Rep. Trent Franks is exploring his options, while former Rep. J.D. Hayworth is making his own calls to gauge support for a bid.

Most expect former Rep. John Shadegg to take a look at the race as well.

Donald Trump's remarks about Rep. Ron Paul's inability to win a presidential election drew an amused response from one of Paul's former campaign aides, who was watching Trump's speech outside the main ballroom.

Joe Seehusen, Paul's former deputy campaign manager, had one question for Trump: "What do you know about politics? I like Donald, but I think Donald gets carried away sometimes." He added there "was s certain preposterousness" that Trump, who has never held public office, could criticize an 11-term congressman for not winning election.

Trump said Paul "cannot get elected ... I like Ron Paul ... But he has zero chance of being elected" in his CPAC speech.

The CPAC crowd, which filled the ballroom and had many watching Trump's speech from televisions outside the room, seemed more interested in his celebrity than his candidacy - visibly enjoying Trump's one-liners criticizing Obama.

Trump also made a splash in the hallways of the hotel, walking around with an entourage of at least 20 people trailing behind him and a set of bodyguards clearing the way in front of him wherever he went.

Businessman Phil Moffett, a tea party-backed candidate in the Kentucky gubernatorial race, introduced Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) Thursday afternoon at CPAC. Moffett drew a parallel between his candidacy and Paul's unexpected 2010 Senate primary victory.

"I'm the conservative Republican candidate for governor in Kentucky," Moffett said, "and I have the tea party backing just as Dr. Paul had."

Moffett briefly outlined his platform, highlighting typical tea party talking points: repealing Obama's health care law, limiting federal government overreach and reducing the debt. Moffett also took a not so thinly-veiled shot at the frontrunner in the GOP primary field, Kentucky Senate President David Williams (R).

"I invite you to join us to fight and kill off another RINO and put another tea party Republican in office so we can move this country forward," Moffett said.

Moffett's campaign manager is David Adams, who previously ran Paul's successful Senate bid in his battle for the Republican nomination.

UPDATE: It's worth noting that Paul has remained neutral in the Kentucky gubernatorial primary, and is working with Williams to pass a balanced budget amendment in the Kentucky state House.

Updated at 4:53 p.m.

Businessman Donald Trump wasn't in a talkative mood upon arriving to CPAC, making a few comments to a small group of reporters before being ushered away by his entourage and event staff.

Trump walked quickly and purposefully without an expression on his face, ignoring questions from a growing group of reporters who were running to stay in front of him.

After silently deflecting numerous questions from reporters with a glare, Trump lightened up a bit when asked by Hotline On Call which GOP candidate he would support if he doesn't run for president.

"I'll let you know later, OK?" he smiled.

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) could be facing a challenge from his right as he vies for re-election, but he has some new ammunition to vouch for his conservative credentials.

The American Conservative Union recently released its 2010 Senate ratings, and Hatch scored a perfect 100 over the last year, just one of 12 senators to receive a perfect score. Other senators who had an unblemished voting record include conservative stalwarts like Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and Tom Coburn (R-Okla.)

Hatch's score rose noticeably from his lifetime ACU rating of 89.5 and his 2009 mark of 88. In the last year, Hatch has highlighted his conservative bona fides to the right to fortify himself against a tea party challenge. Hatch was one of the original sponsors of the DREAM Act, but voted against it in the lame-duck session.

Hatch's longtime colleague Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) didn't fare as well. Lugar, who will likely face a primary challenge of his own, received a 71 rating. Only Maine's moderate duo of Sens. Olympia Snowe (R) and Susan Collins (R) scored lower among Republicans, with each earning a 64 from the ACU.

Twenty nine Democrats received scores of 0, including some who could potentially face competitive re-election campaigns, like Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Bob Menendez (D-N.J.).

And in his final year in the chamber, former Republican-turned-Democrat Sen. Arlen Specter (PA) closed out his career with a 0 from the ACU.

At a time when fiscal conservatives are claiming the forefront of the nation's political debate, Rick Santorum delivered a vigorous defense of social conservatism Thursday.

The annual Conservative Action Political Conference, which draws thousands of grassroots activists to Washington, is at the fulcrum of the push and pull between fiscal and social conservatives.

Preserving human life by opposing abortion, cherishing the family by standing for traditional marriage, "Those are the issues that matter,'' said the former Pennsylvania senator. "Those are the issues that bind us together and those are the issues we cannot retreat on.''

Santorum is among a slew of potential presidential contenders addressing the conference, and he might be the hardest working underdog of the bunch. He's planning his tenth trip to New Hampshire this weekend and has been to Iowa nine times.

But the resounding defeat in 2006 that cost him his Senate seat could make him a tough sell to donors.

Santorum has been not so subtly trying to raise his profile by taking shots at his better known potential competitors, including Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney. On Thursday, without naming Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, he gently mocked him for calling for a "truce'' on social issues.

Roughly 20 minutes before he took the stage at CPAC, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Penn.) was spotted down a back hallway behind the stage huddling with some 50 cadets from The Citadel.

Santorum, like a football coach delivering a pep talk, stood smack dab in the middle of the group, thanking the cadets for attending the event. He spoke to them for nearly five minutes, most of which he spent warning them of the danger posed to America by "jihadists controlling more and more governments around the world."

Santorum strongly condemned the "political correctness" that pervades the public discourse about dealing with radical Islam as the mass of cadets surrounding him nodded their heads.

"It's not about offending anyone, it's about telling the truth," Santorum told them. "If people don't know the truth, how can they defend themselves?"

One of the young cadets told Hotline On Call that Santorum had previously visited with them last year when he visited their academy to address their "Republican Society" group, which is comprised of 55 cadets. The young man said Santorum is the only one of the potential GOP presidential hopefuls who arranged to meet with their group.

Newt Gingrich has a message to CPAC supporters: President Obama is no Ronald Reagan.

"I want the elite media to know something," the former speaker of the House told a packed room of thousands at CPAC. "I knew Ronald Reagan...I began working with Ronald Reagan in 1974 when I ran for Congress," he continued. "I hate to tell this to our friends at MSNBC and elsewhere, but Barack Obama is no Ronald Reagan."

The crowd erupted in applause in laughter, catching Gingrich's reference to Lloyd Bentsen's famous takedown of Dan Quayle during a 1988 vice presidential debate.

Gingrich's speech, one of the biggest ones he'll give before he announces whether he's running for president, assailed the widely held belief by many in Washington that the president has moved to the political center since last year's election.

Instead, Gingrich laid out a to-do list for Obama that would actually put him on a centrist tack - including repeal of the health care law - joking that if he does so he should be invited to be CPAC's keynote speaker next year.

Gingrich also proposed scrapping the Environmental Protection Agency, replacing it with a new agency he calls the Environmental Solutions Agency that he said would protect the environment but also help grow the economy.

"As an American, I reject idea you have to choose one or the other," he said.

The crowd, which roared in approval when the former GOP leader was introduced to his introductory song "Eye of the Tiger," was more interested in Gingrich's rhetorical assault on Obama's agenda.

"Why are we in a mess? Why are we at over 9 percent unemployment?'' Gingrich asked.

"Well the Obama administration is anti jobs, anti small business, anti manufacturing, pro trial lawyers, pro bureaucrats, pro deficit spending and pro higher taxes. What do you think is going to happen?''

Two of the tea party's biggest success stories from the 2010 cycle brought a similar message they touted on the campaign trail to the CPAC crowd.

Freshmen Reps. Kristi Noem (R-S.D.) and Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Idaho), who each defeated Blue Dog Democrats, got top billing Thursday at the conservative conference's opening, speaking of their humble upbringings and a desire to cut government influence.

"None of us got here on our own. We all got here with your help," said Noem, who knocked off Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.).

Noem talked about having to leave college to help with her family's farm after her father was killed in a farming accident, and having to decide whether to sell the farm or take out a loan.

"We got hurt really hard with estate taxes," said Noem. "For me being young, having a tragedy in our family, and then immediately being told we owed thousands of dollars to the federal government because that tragedy happened to us was devastating."

Noem warned that today's generation wouldn't have the same educational opportunities as she and her generation did, saying she told a high school class not long ago, "Your worst fears have been realized - your parents are smarter than you."

"Our children may not have those opportunities because of what we're doing to our country," said Noem.

Labrador, who not only beat conservative Rep. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho) but also the GOP establishment favorite Vaughn Ward in the primary, talked about being born in Puerto Rico before moving to Idaho.

"I'm proud to be an American citizen by birth - and I do have my birth certificate to prove it," Labrador said, taking on a "birther" attitude, of those who doubt President Obama was born in the U.S.

Tearing up, Labrador talked of being born to a single mother who had to grapple with whether to have an abortion or to give him up for adoption. Although his mother had idealized the Kennedys, after moving to Las Vegas in 1981, she decided to register as Republican after being inspired by Ronald Reagan. And, he emphasized, she sought help by having Labrador work for their local church instead of applying for welfare.

It's not often that Republicans and Democrats agree, but the Department of Justice has officially signed off on Louisiana's return to open primaries for federal elections, a move both parties in the state have opposed, albeit for different reasons.

Under the approved system, all federal candidates will run in a November election in 2012, with the top two vote-getters advancing to a December runoff if no candidate captures more than 50% of the vote.

The state legislature approved the changes last year - only two years after election law was initially changed in 2008 to allow for closed party primaries for congressional elections.

The conventional wisdom is that moderates will stand to benefit from the change. And the two state parties -- who oppose the change -- have their own perspectives.

During the 2010 cycle, Republican primaries for federal elections allowed only Republicans to participate, and Democratic primaries allowed Democrats and unaffiliated voters. Other state elections featured an open primary system.

Sen. Jon Kyl, the second-ranking Republican in the Senate, will not seek a fourth term in office, he said Thursday at a hotel in Phoenix.

Kyl offered no explanation for his decision to bow out other than simply being ready to end his tenure. "I really can't explain it any better than to say, my heart says it's time," Kyl said. "Let me hasten to say that there is nothing negative about the decision."

Though his decision was not entirely unexpected, Kyl had kept his decision private, only recently beginning to tell political allies. Kyl informed Gov. Jan Brewer of his decision late Wednesday, an Arizona Republican source said.

Kyl becomes the second Republican to announce his departure this year, following Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX). His decision will have an impact in the Senate, too, where Republicans will maneuver to fill leadership posts Kyl will vacate.

Jockeying is already underway for the number two GOP spot. Spokesman Ryan Patmintra said Kyl will remain GOP Whip through 2012. But Senate Republican Conference Chairman Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., who ran previously for Whip, is already running to for the post, an Alexander aide said.

Alexander's most likely challenger would be National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn, R-Texas. If Cornyn oversees a GOP Senate takeover in 2012, he would be in a strong position to seek the number two Senate spot. A Republican sympathetic to Alexander suggested Cornyn could run for the GOP Conference Chair job.

Republican Policy Committee Chair John Thune, R-S.D., who is mulling a presidential run, could also seek to move up to a higher ranking leadership job.

On Thursday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he would miss his top deputy.

"I think it is a big loss for the country," McConnell said. "But the good news is he'll be here for two more years helping us fight for the right things. We're going to miss Jon Kyl."

Kyl's departure also will set off a scramble among Arizona Republicans who have long been eager to succeed him as the state's senator. At the top of that list is Rep. Jeff Flake, a six-term incumbent known for his ardent opposition to earmarks.

Flake has already laid the foundations for a potential bid. His campaign's finance committee met last week to plot strategy for his 2012 re-election bid, an effort that could easily morph into a statewide campaign. Flake is expected to make an announcement about his plans in the next few days, according to two sources.

Tea party-backed 2010 GOP gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino won't run for the now-vacant seat of former Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y), instead throwing his support behind state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin (R) should she run.

In the wake of Lee's quick resignation Wednesday evening after embarrassing web postings and photos surfaced on Gawker, a source close to Paladino told Hotline On Call that the outspoken and controversial wealthy businessman was being "heavily lobbied" to run for the seat. Paladino lives just outside the district, but New York state law does not require candidates to live within the district's boundaries.

Corwin has emerged as one of the early favorites to succeed Lee, according to several GOP sources. The party's nominee won't be chosen by voters but instead by a majority vote of the GOP county chairs from the district. Candidates wishing to be considered must file a nomination certificate within 10 days of the governor's proclamation of a special election. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) must first recognize the vacancy and call for a special election. Once he does, the vote will be held within 30 to 45 days.

What gets Rep. Michele Bachmann going in the morning?

Repealing Obamacare.

"Obamacare is quite literally the crown jewel of socialism, and repealing it is the driving motivation of my life,'' the Minnesota Republican told thousands of activists Thursday morning, the opening day of the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.

"The first political breath I take every morning is to repeal Obamacare.''

She added, in a jab at President Obama's alma mater, "Socialism might sell well in a Harvard faculty lounge, but in the real world, not so much.''

The three-term House member was at the front of a procession of potential presidential candidates auditioning for the crowd at the three-day event. Derided by her critics as a lightweight, Bachmann showed she knows how to play to the crowd, slinging pointed one-liners and offering to buy each person in the heavily college-aged audience a drink.

"The bar tab is mine!'' she said, inviting the crowd to her 5:30 p.m. reception, following a roll call of newly elected Republicans across the country.

Bachmann didn't mention her recent trip to early-voting Iowa but did reference her ill-received and parodied response to the State of the Union address in which she was looking off camera the whole time.

"Someone told me I needed to find the right camera,'' she joked. "All you (Saturday Night Live) fans, I think we're good to go.''

Bachmann sought to unite the cross-section of fiscal, social and military conservatives in the room by addressing each constituency and assuring them, "I am one of you.''

But practically all of her speech amounted to a tirade against the "stunning level of debt'' the U.S. is carrying.

"His name is President Hu, and with all the money we owe China we might rightly say, 'Hu's your daddy,' ''she quipped.

"Then there's this monstrosity called Obamacare,'' drawing a mild round of boos. "This is a law that will never end. It will grow, and grow and grow.''

Here's a sign that Florida state Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R) is looking like a serious contender against Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla): He raised about $1 million from one single strategy session with donors in Orlando last week.

The impressive early haul shows that Haridopolos' perch in state legislative leadership certainly has its advantages - lobbyists with business before the state legislature certainly have reasons to get in Haridopolos' good graces. But his leadership role also poses challenges, as well, given that his legislative responsibilities preclude him from mounting a full-fledged campaign - and he may well have to step aside as the race draws closer.

Of course, fundraising isn't everything, as former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (I) quickly found out last election. Crist set records with his first quarterly fundraising haul of $4.3 million in 2009 -- also thanks to his political perch - but that wasn't unable to ultimately stop Sen. Marco Rubio's (R-Fla.) momentum.

Haridopolos is the only announced Republican candidate against Nelson, but several others are seriously considering jumping in - including former Sen. George LeMieux, Rep. Connie Mack, and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

A plethora of potential presidential contenders will descend on Washington over the next three days to state their case to thousands of attendees at CPAC, the American Conservative Union's 38th annual gathering of Republican politicians and conservative activists and thinkers.

While the White House 2012 picture remains remarkably distorted, this three-day event will feature more than a dozen speakers whose names have been mentioned in the presidential conversation. CPAC provides an unparalleled forum for White House aspirants to sell their message -- and themselves -- to some of the most powerful and influential factions of the conservative movement.

White House hopefuls will swear they aren't working too hard to manipulate CPAC's annual presidential straw poll, the results of which are announced at the end of the weekend's festivities. But behind the scenes, most campaigns are running a somewhat organized drive to secure votes.

Winning the straw poll certainly doesn't guarantee anything -- Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) won it last year and remains a long shot to win the GOP nomination -- but any candidate who wins gets guaranteed press coverage throughout the weekend.

Each speaker will deliver their own distinct message, but with a unifying theme: They will take every opportunity to criticize President Obama. Here's a complete rundown of what to expect from the GOP presidential hopefuls who are speaking this weekend:

THURSDAY, FEB. 10

9:15 a.m. -- Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.): It should prove difficult for any speaker to steal the show during this event's maiden address, but if anyone can pull it off, it's Bachmann. Her penchant for fiery prose makes her a natural favorite the CPAC crowd, whose ideological leanings are right in Bachhmann's wheelhouse. Unlike sure-fire presidential hopefuls, Bachmann won't worry about taking risks -- expect nothing less than her customary firebrand rhetoric.

President Obama hosted Republican leaders for lunch at the White House, but Jay Leno doesn't think it went well, "The President had to do without salt bread pepper and butter. Not for health reasons, because the Republicans refused to pass anything."

Michelle Obama praised former presidential children on the Today show, except for one.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:40. Obama may have given up smoking, but has picked up a new habit.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Rep. Chris Lee, R-N.Y., resigned from Congress Wednesday evening in the wake of an embarrassing web posting that the married, two-term congressman had replied to a personal ad on Craigslist with a shirtless photo of himself.

Lee issued a statement announcing his resignation immediately, and his letter was read on the House floor shortly after 6 p.m.

"It has been a tremendous honor to serve the people of Western New York. I regret the harm that my actions have caused my family, my staff, and my constituents. I deeply and sincerely apologize to them all. I have made profound mistakes and I promise to work as hard as I can to seek their forgiveness," Lee said. "The challenges we face in Western New York and across the country are too serious for me to allow this distraction to continue, and so I am announcing that I have resigned my seat in Congress effective immediately."

The story, posted on the website Gawker.com, reported that Lee had replied to a personal ad from a woman seeking a "financially and emotionally secure" man. Lee sent messages back and forth to the woman from his personal account, and told the woman that he was a divorced lobbyist and was 39. Lee is 46 and married with one child. Lee also sent photos of himself to the woman, including one where he was posing shirtless in a mirror. Lee does not appear to have met the woman, and she cut off contact with him after searching online and found out he had lied about his age and occupation.

Lee's resignation is the second in the past year from Upstate New York. Lee's Rochester-based 26th District borders the 29th District, where former Rep. Eric Massa, D-N.Y., resigned last March after allegations surfaced that he had sexually harassed a male staffer.

Rahm Emanuel appears poised to win a majority of votes in the Feb. 22 mayoral election to avoid a runoff - and he's been able to achieve that impressive goal through an unlikely source: Winning over the city's African-American voters.

An outright 53 percent majority of African-American voters said they would back Emanuel in the latest Richard Day Research poll commissioned for WLS-TV, even with the presence of a prominent black candidate in the field, former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun. It's a testament to both a weak field and Emanuel's efforts to court black voters, reminding them of his work for President Obama in the White House.

In a city with a history of ethnic and racial voting patterns, Braun attempted to consolidate the black vote to her side - and won the backing of Rep. Danny Davis (D-IL) and state Sen. James Meeks, who initially were running.

Emanuel's old House district wasn't exactly the most diverse: Only three percent of his former constituents in Chicago's North Side were African-American.

But Braun's embattled campaign has failed to excite and mobilize the city's African-American community. And it didn't help that Braun accused Patricia Van Pelt-Watkins, a little-known African-American candidates in the race, of having a history of crack addiction in a candidate debate.

With Braun struggling, Emanuel has not hesitated to court black voters, reminding them of his time in the White House and his connection to Obama. The Emanuel campaign has been running a radio spot featuring Obama praising his former chief of staff, with clips taken from Emanuel's White House farewell ceremony.

With just under two weeks remaining until the election, Braun needs to win over a chunk of the black voters she was expected to easily carry. If not, Emanuel will become mayor of Chicago sooner than most expected.

Sarah Palin received some favorable news yesterday in a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, which showed her running competitive in a presidential primary field -- after a spate of recent surveys cast serious doubt about the strength of her national prospects. But the poll also underscores how she polarizes the GOP base in a way her potential rivals do not.

Palin took 19 percent of the vote in a Republican presidential primary field, putting her second in the field of 11 potential candidates tested - trailing former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, but leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. That 19 percent she received is five points up from the last CNN/Opinion Research survey in October, and is the highest level of support for her in nearly a year.

The poll also showed more respondents listing Palin as their first or second choice for president than any other candidate.

Despite Palin's competitiveness in a crowded primary field, other polls show she's still a tough sell to many Republican primary voters. A late October Washington Post-ABC News poll found only 47 percent of Republicans thought she was qualified to be president - 46 percent did not think so.

The CNN/Opinion Research poll did not ask voters if they thought Palin was qualified to be president. It found 70 percent of Republicans held a favorable view of her, compared to just 25 percent who did not.

Virginia Sen. Jim Webb (D) will not seek a second term in office, he said in a statement Wednesday.

"After much thought and consideration, I have decided to return to the private sector, where I have spent most of my professional life, and will not seek re-election in 2012," Webb said in a statement his office released today.

Webb narrowly beat then-Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) in 2006, providing Democrats the 51st seat they needed to win control of the upper chamber. His departure is a blow to Democrats, who privately acknowledge they will have a difficult time holding the seat without Webb running again.

Allen is seeking to return to the Senate after six years out of office. He will face a challenger who is striving for the Tea Party mantle in activist Jamie Radtke, but Allen remains the front-runner in both the primary and the general elections.

Democrats aren't completely willing to give up on the seat. Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine, the former Virginia governor, has said he will not run, but informed speculation is that he would reconsider if Webb decided against a bid. Some Democrats have also pointed to ex-Rep. Tom Perriello (D), who lost his seat in 2010 but who has not ruled out a future run for office.

If Democrats get a top-tier contender in the race against Allen, the contest could remain a tight battle. President Obama, who will be on the ballot in 2012, won Virginia by six points in 2008, and the state will be one of his campaign's key targets.

Webb is the second Democrat to say he won't run for re-election, along with Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) (Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Connecticut independent, has also said he will quit Congress). With so many other Democrats facing their own difficult challenges, Webb's decision not to run again raises serious questions about Democrats' ability to hold on to a majority in the upper chamber. Republicans would need four seats to take over control.

Freshman Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) will be the closing keynote speaker at the Conservative Political Action Conference this year, he said in a Wednesday morning tweet.

"I've been asked today to have the honor of giving the closing keynote address at CPAC Saturday. I'm humbled," West tweeted. A call to West's spokeswoman was not immediately returned.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) had been the conservative gathering's first choice to give the closing speech, but the possible 2012 presidential contender declined the invitation. It's the third year Palin has decided not to attend the conference, due in large part to a tenuous relationship with CPAC organizer and American Conservative Union President David Keene.

West, one of only two African-American Republicans currently in Congress, had originally been scheduled to address CPAC attendees Thursday morning. The tea party favorite also addressed the group last year when he was beginning his second challenge to Rep. Ron Klein (D-Fla.).

West has emerged as one of the more outspoken and controversial freshmen in the new class, most recently for comments he made about his Muslim House colleague. And West is likely to have another fight in 2012 to hold onto his district, which voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and for John Kerry in 2004.

In the wake of the PATRIOT Act reauthorization defeat last night, the conventional wisdom has held that it was the Tea Party freshmen who played a crucial role in preventing it from passing. But in reality, the Republican opposition was much more mainstream - and was joined by two Republicans who have their eyes on the Senate in 2012.

Both Reps. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) and Dean Heller (R-Nev.) were among the 26 Republicans who voted against the reauthorization. Mack is seriously mulling a Senate campaign, and has been positioning himself as a center-right candidate on immigration as he prepares for a race. Nonetheless, he has a solid conservative voting record in the House - with a 100 percent ACU score in 2008.

Heller, meanwhile, is considering challenging ethically-plagued Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) in a primary - and some Republican strategists privately would prefer Heller, given his lack of personal baggage. Nevada has a libertarian streak, though, and Heller represents the huge, empty swath of territory where many of his constituents hold distinctly anti-government sentiment.

But their votes could certainly come back to haunt them in a Republican primary, especially in a state like Florida where national security issues are front and center. One of Mack's potential Senate rivals, former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, has positioned himself as a foreign policy hawk and would likely use Mack's vote against him.

And Heller's vote would give Ensign an opening to out-conservative the congressman - something that's been tough to do until now given Heller's generally conservative voting record. A prospective race that was likely to hinge on personality may well now have a major policy divide.

Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.), the leading Democratic Senate contender in Nevada, voted for the PATRIOT Act reauthorization.

Only eight of the 87 Republican freshmen voted, a fairly small number - and many prominent Tea Party Republicans, like Rep. Allen West (R-Fla) voted with party leadership. What's more notable is that two Republican politicians with their eye on the Senate prize don't think they will take a political hit by voting against their party's signature national security initiative.

A year ago, Michelle Obama started her campaign to end childhood obesity, "Let's Move." Jimmy Fallon, doesn't think it's going the way she planned, "I think Americas been pretty clear in announcing their answer. No."

Conan O'Brien, on President Obama's health care plan being explained in a comic book, "In a related story President Bush has come out in favor of Obama's health care plan."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast Forward to 1:22, Jimmy Kimmel puts extra footage from Obama's interview with FNC's Bill O'Reilly to good use in the latest "Kimmel Kartoon".

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump.

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) doesn't want to face the same fate as his former Senate colleague Robert Bennett so he invited himself to a Tea Party Express town hall Tuesday night -- widely seen as a strategic move to preemptively make amends with the movement that has made its name ousting establishment Republican senators.

Hatch doesn't yet face a Republican primary challenger as he seeks re-election, but conservative activists back home are already making noise about taking him on - and are aided by a unique nomination process in the state, where they have disproportionate clout in choosing their nominee.

Prior to the town hall, Tea Party Express spokesman Levi Russell said that after supporting legislation like TARP and the DREAM Act, Hatch would need "to be prepared to answer some difficult questions" from conservatives. No one seemed more aware of this standard than Hatch himself--though he downplayed the contention.

"As far as I'm concerned, the tea party people in my state that I've met are very, very good people," Hatch said, leaving the event. "Whether they support me or not, I respect them. And the Tea Party Express people have expressed support--some of them--in very good ways."

Hatch said his 2012 strategy will be to portray himself as an invaluable resource for the state, who would be in position to chair the Senate Finance Committee, if Republicans retake the majority.

"I think people will say, 'My gosh, we don't want to lose that. The guy's been a leader his whole time in the Senate, he's the most senior Republican now, a senior member on the Finance Committee,' and should we be fortunate enough to take the majority in 2012, I'll be the chairman," Hatch said.

Tea Party officials have sent conflicting signals on Hatch. Tea Party Express consultant Sal Russo is a longtime friend of Hatch's and hinted that the group would support his re-election campaign. But other Tea Party Express officials quickly distanced themselves from his remarks - and it was clear tonight that Hatch still has a long way to go to win their support.

Russell said the Tea Party Express wouldn't hesitate to challenge Hatch if a more conservative option jumped in. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) has expressed interest in running.

"I think there are still people who have mixed feelings about him," Russell said. "So I think this will be one step in a long process for reelection, but it's a good step. It's actually a really hard situation because his record is very conservative, but he's had a few key votes that are totally against the core tea party stuff."

In terms of his voting record, Hatch touted his strong career record from the American Conservative Union.

The Tea Party Express formally announced Tuesday evening that Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) will be one of its leading targets in 2012, kicking off a nearly two-year campaign to unseat the veteran senator.

In a fundraising e-mail titled "Time to Punish Dick Lugar?" Tea Party Express chair Amy Kremer wrote: "Dick Lugar has become the epitome of what is wrong in Washington, D.C" and that "it is clear that someone like this needs to go."

Lugar has recently earned the ire of conservative activists back home for his support of earmarks, his sponsorship of the DREAM Act and President Obama's nuclear treaty with Russia- and for dismissing the threat they pose to his re-election. The state's Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who received the most votes of any statewide candidate in last year's midterm election, is expected to announce he's challenging Lugar in the primary - his first intraparty challenge since 1976.

Lugar further angered Tea Party activists when he said that his conservative opponents need to "get real" to a local television station Monday - a point highlighted in the Tea Party Express' fundraising e-mail.

The Tea Party Express, which initiated successful primary challenges to Delaware Republican congressman Mike Castle and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) last year, isn't stopping with Lugar. Kremer said the group plans to announce further targets in the days to come - with Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) viewed skeptically by the activists.

In ending his reelection bid, Colorado GOP Chair Dick Wadhams isn't hiding his frustration, illustrating the lingering disagreement among Republicans in the state following a disappointing election cycle.

"It really came to a head this past weekend, maybe a few days before that," Wadhams said of the timing of his decision in an interview with Hotline On Call Tuesday afternoon. "And then frankly, I had grown weary of activists, both new and old that seemed to have a conspiracy theory around every corner."

When pressed for specific examples, Wadhams mentioned both the gubernatorial and Senate races, beginning with former Republican gubernatorial candidate Josh Penry (R), a once rising star who ended his bid in late 2009. Some had charged that Wadhams was responsible for his exit.

"The rumor was that I forced him out of the race," said Wadhams, who denied the charge and said he was excited about Penry's candidacy but had to remain neutral in the primary.

The 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary was nothing short of disastrous for Republicans. Former Rep. Scott McInnis' (R) candidacy was damaged following reports of plagiarism, and businessman Dan Maes (R) -- who had his own issues -- emerged as the party's nominee.

Wadhams put himself in the middle, delivering to Maes a proposal from third party candidate and former Rep. Tom Tancredo for both candidates to drop out of the race. Maes rejected the proposal, and went on and lost badly to Gov. John Hickenlooper (D), finishing well behind Tancredo.

Republican Ilario Pantano is wasting little time launching a second bid against Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-NC), announcing Tuesday he will be a candidate in 2010.

Pantano said his decision was driven by the Democratic National Committee's announcement last week that the party would hold its 2012 convention in the Tar Heel State.

"President Obama made a very clear declaration that North Carolina is going to be ground zero for the 2012 campaign," Pantano said in an interview Tuesday. "People have clearly voiced their concerns in the blowback."

The Iraq War veteran and former Goldman Sachs trader had left open the door to a rematch since his 7-point loss to McIntyre in 2010, and in email to supporters this morning wrote asking for "the opportunity to protect you and your families from the wolves at the door ... You know that after fighting two wars as a U.S. Marine, I have the scars to prove I mean business. "

Both candidates and parties spent heavily in hopes of winning the district. McIntyre and Pantano each spent over $1 million, and the National Republican Congressional Committee spent more than $470,000 while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $270,000.

Pantano told Hotline On Call that he'd been encouraged by "thousands of supporters and volunteers," to make another run, but that another concern that influenced his early announcement was the impact redistricting could have on the Wilmington-based district.

"I wanted to ensure our region was going to be heard in our state capitol as those efforts were underway," said Pantano.

As it's drawn now, the coastal area gave John McCain a 5 point edge in 2008 and George W. Bush an even wider 12-point margin in 2004, but the district has remained in Democratic control for more than 140 years.

But with Republicans now wielding power in the process, McIntyre's district will be at the top of their list to move to their column in 2012. Then again, atop Pantano's mind, if more Republicans are moved into the district, that could spur new GOP candidates to enter the race.

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) took his latest jab at the tea party today, telling a local Indiana TV station that people need to "get real."

Lugar has vigorously defended his record as he faces a primary challenge from state Treasurer Richard Mourdock as he vies for a seventh term in office. His refusal to make concessions to the tea party agenda has been apparent, and at times the senator -- who has never faced a serious primary opponent -- even seems to be inviting a challenge.

A major tea party criticism of Lugar is his support of the START nuclear treaty with Russia, a position he defends. "I've got to say 'Get real,'" said Lugar in the interview. "I hear Tea Party or other people talking about they were against START. I say 'Well, now, hang on here.'"

"If you want to get into START, let's talk about it, but realistically as Americans, not as some Republican renegade," he said. "(I'm) trying to take warheads of Russia (out of circulation) so they won't hit Indiana."

Lugar also used the interview to defend his votes for SCOTUS Justices Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor.

"I hope people sort of understand that because otherwise we polarize the Supreme Court business to a point that conservative justices offered by a conservative Republican president -- who'll be elected at some point -- are going to have trouble," he said.

Mourdock has already said he plans to run against Lugar, and state Sen. Mike Delph (R) is another potential opponent. Tea party groups in the state have said their goal is to unify behind one conservative candidate.

As the Washington Post's Aaron Blake wrote today, Lugar's defiance contrasts with Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch's (R) attempts to improve his relationship with tea partiers. That contrast is on great display today. As Lugar made his latest remarks, Hatch has invited himself to a Tea Party Express forum taking place in Washington tonight.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is a man of his word, and to divine whether he will run for president, you just have to keep an eye on his waistline.

"If you see I lose 40 pounds, you'll know I'm either running or got cancer," Barbour told a roundtable of reporters a year ago.

Now, reports Politics Daily's Jill Lawrence, Barbour is getting there. Lawrence writes today: "I asked the Barbour adviser how he looks these days. 'He has lost some weight,' the adviser said. 'He hasn't lost 40 pounds. He might be halfway there. So read into that what you will.'"

A top Barbour fan in Washington mentioned the same thing to us last week -- that the governor is looking downright svelte these days.

Rahm Emanuel isn't inclined to discuss his work as an investment banker as he campaigns for mayor of Chicago. But Emanuel's opponents have raised questions about his stint with Wasserstein Perella & Co, where Emanuel reportedly earned $18.5 million in just two and a half years after leaving the Clinton White House.

"I defy you to tell me anybody you know who jumped out of government into a business for which he had no credentials or background, made $18.5 million in two years and then jumped back into government," said former Chicago Public Schools president Gery Chico, one of Emanuel's main challengers in the race.

Emanuel responded by telling the Chicago Sun-Times that he specialized in "relationship banking."

"There is, in that culture, two types of bankers: a person who knows the numbers, industry specific; and a person who kind of also deals with relationships," Emanuel said. "I was what was considered, at that time, although I don't think this is really interesting, relationship banking, and that's what I did."

Considered the heavy favorite in the race, Emanuel needs more than 50 percent of the vote in the Feb. 22 primary to avoid a run-off. In the meantime, don't expect much discussion of Rahm's banking experience coming from the Emanuel campaign.

More than half of registered voters believe President Obama will lose a bid for a second term, even as more Americans say they approve of his job performance than at any time in more than a year.

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, released Tuesday, shows 51 percent of registered voters, and the same percentage of adult Americans, believe Obama will lose if he runs for re-election. 46 percent say he would win.

And more voters say, at the moment, they will vote against Obama. Fully 51 percent say they definitely or probably will not vote for Obama, while 47 percent say they're predisposed to vote for him. Independent voters would vote against Obama by a 44 percent to 53 percent margin, while he would win moderates by a much larger 55 percent to 45 percent margin.

The numbers come in the same poll that showed Obama gaining from a big positive bump. The sample of all adults approve of the job Obama is doing by a 55 percent to 44 percent margin, the highest Obama's approval rating has gone since a poll conducted November 13-15, 2009.

And yet Obama shouldn't worry too much. Early decisions about how a voter will cast a ballot haven't proven to be terribly good indicators of a candidate's performance in the following elections. A similar CNN survey from January 1995 found 54 percent of Americans saying they would vote against Bill Clinton, while just 39 percent would vote for him. Fully 65 percent said they believed Clinton would lose re-election. Clinton easily won his re-election bid in 1996.

Progressive activist Marcy Winograd inched closer to running in the special election to replace Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.), but her decision to run may hinge on whether California Secretary of State Debra Bowen also throws her hat in the ring.

Both Bowen and Winograd have strong reputations in the progressive community, and their candidacies would signal an ideological fight within the Democratic party for the seat. Progressives believe this open seat as their chances to elect a like-minded member of Congress - especially given their frosty relations with Harman - and aren't enthused with Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, a more-moderate candidate who announced for the seat Monday.

Winograd, who challenged Harman in both the 2006 and 2010 Democratic primaries, tweeted Tuesday morning that, "With Harman resigning, I am considering a run -- though interested in speaking with Bowen about forging a new economy for the 36th." Winograd also wrote that Hahn, had called her to let her know of her decision and "assured me she was anti-war, also a 'friend of Israel.'"

But Winograd didn't sound convinced of Hahn's liberal bona fides, telling POLITICO's Ben Smith Monday evening that Hahn's answer was a "knee-jerk response." In her campaigns against Harman, Winograd made the congresswoman's vote in favor of the initial invasion of Iraq and her support for Israel the centerpiece of her challenge.

Winograd ended by saying "We need a progressive voice in DC, someone to challenge expanded wars, be they sponsored by the GOP or Dems. Harman resigns; Free the 36th." Winograd moved outside of the Venice-based district after her last campaign, but a candidate does not have to live inside the district in order to run.

Bowen is popular among grassroots progressives, and if she enters she would likely shoot to the top of the field, along with Hahn. Daily Kos blogger Steve Singiser called her a "well-respected progressive" and pointed out she was well-received at Netroots Nation two years ago.

Hahn has moved quickly to line up support for her candidacy, though, reportedly getting the early backing of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and hiring Joe Trippi as her media consultant.

The Democratic Leadership Council announced Monday it would close its doors after more than two decades playing a major role in Democratic politics.

Just a few years ago, the centrist group, from whence sprang Bill Clinton, attracted a steady parade of Democratic presidential hopefuls. But by the 2008 campaign, those hopefuls were choosing to attend events sponsored by the netroots rather than by the centrist Democratic establishment.

"With its CEO Bruce Reed joining the Administration, the DLC Board of Directors has decided to suspend operations while it considers what the next phase of the DLC will be," co-founder Al From said in a statement yesterday. "The Democratic Leadership Council has had an historic impact on American politics over the past 25 years. We're convinced that it will continue to have that impact in the future."

National Journal's Marc Ambinder explains just what the DLC meant, and what its demise means for the Democratic Party, on our Voices blog:

The DLC didn't kill the New Left, but arguably, it won the future.

With centrism as their lodestar and a bit of seed funding from business, the Democratic Leadership Council launched itself in the mid 1980s. First came a clarion call to fight against populism within the Democratic Party. Founders Al From and Will Marshall believed that Democrats couldn't win the presidency unless they adopted an economic agenda that was more, well, reasonable and less wedded to traditional party constituencies. Also, there was no reason, they also believed, as to why corporations wouldn't contribute money to Democrats who were pro-trade agreements, more skeptical of labor, and less stringent when it came to regulation. A forward-thinking Arkansas governor named Bill Clinton glommed on to the DLC ... and they glommed on to him, and their relationship consummated in his election to the presidency.

Conan O'Brien still can't get over the White House Super Bowl Party menu, "President Obama served a menu that featured food from both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Which explains why this morning, President Obama tested positive for diabetes."

Fox's Bill O'Reilly is tough on Obama during their pre-Super Bowl interview. Jimmy Kimmel: "It's weird to see those two together. I think Bill O'Reilly might think he's the president and not the other way around."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:33 to play Jay Leno's "Presidential Meal or Last Meal?" game. Then vote on your favorite menu item in our Late Night Poll.

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump.

Former Rep. Charles Djou (R-Hawaii) all but swore off elective politics in his recent farewell address, but the former congressman recently penned an article that is sure to ignite speculation among the state's political observers over whether a 2012 bid against Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) is in the offing.

In a Pacific Business News article, Djou blasts the "machine politics" and "seniority-based system" that make up Hawaii's delegation. "As the 112th Congress convened earlier this year, Americans elected a much younger and more dynamic class of Congressional representatives. Hawaii, however, returned the oldest congressional delegation in the nation," writes Djou in the article published Friday. "The four members of Hawaii's current congressional delegation have an average age of 73."

Djou goes on to contrast DC's shift toward "to a much younger and more transparent leadership style" with the state's congressional delegation. "When Sen. Inouye was first elected to Congress in 1959, House Speaker John Boehner was in elementary school," Djou writes. "Not only had Majority Leader Eric Cantor yet to be born, but President Obama was only born shortly after Sen. Inouye finished his first re-election campaign for Congress."

Akaka recently reiterated his intention to run for reelection. Meanwhile, former Gov. Linda Lingle (R), is considering a bid of her own. She said in November that she would take 6 months before making a decision on a run. Lingle would be the state's strongest potential Republican challenger to Akaka, but if she does not run, Republicans in the state may shift their attention to Djou.

Akaka, not known as an aggressive campaigner, has just $66K+ cash on hand, according to his most recent campaign finance report.

West Virginia industrialist John Raese (R) has decided not to attempt a fifth run for statewide office in this year's special gubernatorial election. His decision leaves Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R) the frontrunner in the Republican primary.

Bluefield Mayor and radio host Craig Hammond had launched a "Draft John Raese for Governor" movement in late January, encouraging people to call Raese's offices to show support for his candidacy. The Draft Raese movement was symptomatic of a desire for a more conservative alternative in the Republican primary field: Ireland is considered too moderate by many Republicans. The only other Republican candidates announced so far are state Sen. Clark Barnes (R) and Putnam County Prosecutor Mark Sorsaia (R).

Raese may have been discouraged by a late January poll that showed his favorable to unfavorable rating with West Virginia voters was 30 percent to 52 percent.

But now that acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) has signed finally legislation setting the primary and general election dates this year, candidates will have to file this week -- so there's little time for another big name conservative candidate to enter the race.

With Rep. Jane Harman's (D-Calif.) sudden departure from Congress in the coming weeks, the race to replace her is already drawing interest from several top Democrats in what's shaping up to be a competitive and crowded primary.

Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn became the first candidate to enter the race Monday afternoon. Hahn, who lost the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor last year, comes from a well-known Los Angeles political family: her brother, James, served as mayor from 2001 until 2005, and her father, Kenneth, was a county supervisor for forty years. Hahn also ran to replace Harman in 1998, when she left her congressional seat to mount a losing campaign for governor, but Hahn narrowly lost to Republican Steven Kuykendall, who was then defeated by Harman again the next election.

"As someone who has served in local government for almost a decade, I want to bring that perspective and experience to Congress," Hahn said in a statement. "I plan to work hard to win this seat. I am ready to run and ready to serve the people of the 36th District."

The Sacramento Bee also reports that Secretary of State Debra Bowen is inching toward a run. "She is very, very seriously considering running for Congress," Bowen consultant Steve Barkan told the Bee. "It's brand new news, and so she needs to take all factors into consideration."

Progressive activist Marcy Winograd, who challenged Harman from the left in the 2006 and 2010 Democratic primary, could also be eyeing another run at a now-open seat. State Assemblyman Warren Furutani has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, along with James Lau, the former director of the California League of Conservation Voters Education Fund, who lost a close Assembly race last year.

One reason several Democrats are eyeing the seat-they don't have to live in the district to run, and state office holders wouldn't have to vacate their offices. Winograd reportedly moved out of the district after her last unsuccessful challenge to Harman. (It's not uncommon in the expansive state - Rep. Tom McClintock (R) won his 2008 election while living hundreds of miles outside the 4th Congressional District, although his opponents did bring up that point often.)

Add Rep. Ron Paul's (R-Texas) name to the list of Republicans making their way through Iowa for an appearance at a conservative group's Presidential Lecture Series, but don't pencil in former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) just yet.

As National Journal's Lindsey Boerma reports (subscription), Paul -- who did not rule out another WH run in an interview with National Journal in late January -- will be featured in the Iowa social conservative group The Family Leader's lecture series on March 7.

Meanwhile, former Iowa gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats (R), who heads The Family Leader, has walked back previously reported comments suggesting Huckabee made a firm commitment of his own to the series.

"I probably misspoke," Vander Plaats told the Des Moines Register in a story published Monday morning. "If Gov. Huckabee were to decide to run, he definitely wants to participate in this. As we're trying to network our schedule, we have him slated for June, July or August, depending on who commits when. He has not committed. He's committed to do the presidential lecture series, if he were to run."

"At this time the Governor has not committed to participate in the series. However -- the Governor will travel to Iowa later this month and has scheduled for six stops in the state to promote his new book 'A Simple Government,'" said Huck PAC director Hogan Gidley.

Vander Plaats served as Huckabee's Iowa state chair in 2008, when Huckabee won the GOP caucuses.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is kicking off the series today, and other potential 2012 candidates are slated to make appearances in the coming weeks.

This post was updated at 5:28 p.m.

Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) will announce her resignation from Congress Tuesday to join the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington as its president and CEO, a top Democratic source confirms to The Hotline. The nine-term representative's departure will set up the first special election of 2011.

The news of Harman's departure was first reported by NBC News. Harman's office declined to comment on the report.

Harman will succeed former Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-Ind.) as head of the bipartisan think tank.

Harman explained her departure in an e-mail she plans to send to constituents, which was obtained by the Los Angeles Times.

"This is an excruciating decision because the distinction of representing the smartest constituents on earth will never be surpassed - nor will my relationships with my exceptional staff and colleagues in Congress. But shaping and leading the Wilson Center is a thrilling new challenge," Harman wrote.

Harman added in the letter that she intends to remain in Congress for "some weeks and do everything possible to ensure an orderly transition to whomever is elected to succeed me.''

Harman has represented the Torrance-based district since 2000, and is a leading voice within the caucus on intelligence issues, despite being passed over in 2006 as chairman of the Intelligence Committee.

Harman has one of the more centrist records among Democrats in the House, and in 2006 and 2010 faced a competitive primary challenge from a progressive activist. But her seat is favored to remain in Democratic hands -- the district gave 64 percent of its vote to President Obama in 2008 and 59 percent for John Kerry in 2004.

In 2010, Harman won reelection with 60 percent of the vote -- a bigger total than the 56 percent that both Gov. Jerry Brown (D) and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) won in the district.

The special election for Harman's seat will be the first federal election in the state with California's new "top two" primary system, where the top two candidates in an all-party primary move on to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. A candidate can win the seat outright if they receive a 50 percent majority of the vote.

The exact date of the special election primary is still to be determined, but it looks likely to be held in May or June, based on state election rules. When Harman's resignation becomes official, Brown has 14 days to call a special election, and the primary would be held 56-70 days later.

"it will likely be consolidated with the statewide special we're likely going to have this June on the budget," one California Democratic operative said.

Turmoil in Egypt continues, while the media struggle to keep up with the latest developments.

President Obama and Sen. John McCain try mend their relationship. Jimmy Fallon: "John McCain said yesterday that President Obama has gotten easier to talk to since he's taken a more centrist position. Meanwhile, Obama said McCain's gotten easier to talk to because he started holding the phone right side up."

Today's Must See Moment --Fast forward 0:28 to for SNL's recap of the "Winners/Losers of Egypt."

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Pittsburgh and Green Bay are two cities with longstanding football traditions set to do battle in Sunday's Super Bowl. Both cities also happen to be in states important to Pres. Obama's reelection prospects in 2012. And in a departure from the previous two Super Bowls, Obama is staying neutral in this year's game.

Super Bowl XLV features two teams from consummate 2012 battleground states, so when looked at strictly though a political lens, Obama's decision to remain neutral makes sense. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania hold 10 and 20 electoral votes respectively in 2012, and Obama won both states in 2008.

Obama said during a recent trip to Pennsylvania that he has "some love" for the Steelers.

Of course, Obama may have his own reasons for staying neutral this year, separate from politics. And winning both states is no guarantee of victory on its own: Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won both in 2004, but still lost the election.

Last year, Obama appeared partial to the New Orleans Saints against the Indianapolis Colts, due in part to the impact of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans.

And in 2009, Obama said he was rooting for the Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII, citing his relationship with Steelers owner Dan Rooney, a supporter during the 2008 campaign. Obama later tapped Rooney to be Ambassador to Ireland.

Will we see a last second endorsement of either team from Obama? Probably not, but he has granted Fox News' Bill O'Reilly an interview that will air before the game on Sunday and the topic could come up.

More tidbits we picked up this week:

-- It's a wide-open Republican field for the right to take on Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in Florida, but former Republican state Majority Leader Adam Hasner would bring one asset to a Republican primary that other potential contenders don't: He backed Marco Rubio early in his contested Republican primary against Gov. Charlie Crist, while the rest of the field went with the governor.

-- Although former eBay CEO Meg Whitman didn't make history by becoming California's first female governor, she did make the record books by having the most expensive nonpresidential race in U.S. history. Whitman spent $178.3 million during her campaign while Gov. Jerry Brown (D) spent $36.7 million. To top it off, Whitman spent $144 million of her own money while Brown's campaign funds mostly came from outside donations. In contrast, money made a winner out of Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), who broke past spending records while blowing through $79.7 million. $60 million of that came from Scott's own bank account.

-- Sen. Rand Paul (R) is planning on being as iconoclastic in the Senate as he was on the campaign trail. Just this week alone, he stoked presidential speculation, stood out as the only senator to vote against a bill that would make it a federal offense to point lasers at airplanes (citing states' rights concerns), and laid a verbal smack-down on none other than Henry Clay over compromising during his first speech on the Senate floor. And all that came a week after he helped lead the inaugural Senate Tea Party Caucus.

-- How telling, too, that Sen. Jim DeMint touted Paul and Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) as the Senate's new "dynamic duo" after forming the Tea Party caucus. Remember when DeMint brought Rubio to South Carolina to raise money? That was before Rubio declined to join the caucus.

What we at The Hotline picked up this week:

-- The health care law will remain an issue headed into the 2012 election. While the Senate's repeal vote never had a chance and a ruling from a federal judge in Florida may eventually be overturned by a high court, Democrats will still defend the law and Republicans will still attack. But the public may slowly be warming up to it, and if its popularity grows, Democrats think Republicans will soon find themselves playing defense and forced to explain their various repeal attempts.

-- Politics still stops at the water's edge. Republicans have supported President Obama on the Egyptian crisis, with only a few exceptions. Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who claimed his primary goal was to make Obama a one term president, repeatedly told audiences that America speaks with one voice.

-- Democrats got their first chance to play offense this week after Rep. Denny Rehberg's (R-MT) decision to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D). The shuffle will test the NRCC's ability to protect an expansive open seat. Montana isn't as Republican as Rehberg's easy wins in past years suggest (Evidence: Sen. Max Baucus wins easily, too). Still, Republicans have the early advantage here, largely thanks to wealthy businessman Steve Daines (R), who already has a healthy cash advantage, raising over $234,000 in just a month. For now, Daines has the GOP field clear, and if that holds, that alone would tip the race in his favor early.

-- Democrats, meanwhile, have several candidates all eyeing a run, and a crowded primary won't do anything to boost their chances, even if President Obama ran stronger-than-usual in Big Sky Country in 2008, losing by just 3 points, compared to George W. Bush's 20-point victory there in 2004. But the unknown variable Republicans are whispering about -- what if popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) decides a statewide House race would be amenable to future Senate plans? A Schweitzer candidacy would be a huge coup for the DCCC and put in play a needed race, and could even help Tester.