What We Learned: Spending In The Spotlight
What we at The Hotline learned this week:
The debate over spending and entitlements is shaping up to be a central issue in the 2012 election - as much as Pres. Obama's health care law and government regulation. Just this week, we saw a swarm of prominent GOP voices - Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Rep. Paul Ryan, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and most prominently, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker - take on the thorny issue that has bedeviled many politicians past.
And if Walker successfully takes on labor in Wisconsin - limiting the public sector's collective bargaining rights - it will spark other attempts by GOP governors across the country - and give Republicans a rallying cry against Obama heading into the presidential election.
The Senate map got even tougher for Democrats, who now have to defend four open seats (all in competitive or GOP-leaning states) with Sen. Jeff Bingaman's (D-N.M.) retirement announcement. It's still early, but in only one of the battleground states have serious Democratic candidates stepped forward (Rep. Chris Murphy (D) and former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) in Connecticut), while Republicans have landed former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.), Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.), Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Nebraska Treasurer Attorney General Jon Bruning (R). Democrats could really use Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine in the Virginia Senate race - or, at the least, get some top-tier recruits, pronto.
Just a few weeks ago, conventional wisdom started to tilt in the direction of Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) passing on a presidential run. But in interviews with National Review, the Christian Broadcasting Network and the Washington Post this week (as well as in last week's CPAC speech), Thune sounded like a man gearing up for a campaign, making his pitch to conservative voters. If Thune is serious about a run, look for him to start concentrating heavily on his state's neighbor to the southeast. With no clear front-runner at present, Iowa represents Thune's best chance to catapult himself into the ranks of the relevant in the battle for the GOP nomination.
Following Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel's (D) decision not to run for governor of Indiana, Democratic eyes will likely turn next to former state House Speaker John Gregg (who says he is exploring a run) and Rep. Joe Donnelly among others as they seek to find a suitable candidate for the race.
Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) and Daniels both got a glimpse at the perils of running for president while holding office. Each declined this week to weigh in on controversial issues in their state -- Barbour, by refusing to denounce a Confederacy group's attempt to honor a KKK leader; and Daniels, by declining to weigh in on an Arizona-style immigration law before the state's legislature -- and each has caught flak for their silence.
The minority is becoming the majority in Texas for the first time in a redistricting period. The Hispanic population grew 42% to become 38% of the state's population. Whites now account for only 45% of the population. With Democrats having a bigger pull on Hispanic voters, the Republican-leaning state will have a tough time redrawing district lines in the GOP's favor.
Sticking by his campaign promise for a new "open" legislative process, House Speaker John Boehner was designated the daunting task of corralling votes on hundreds of amendments proposed by the House for its continuing resolution. The move seemed to backfire as Boehner failed to reign in the newly elected freshmen class, and watched as funding for his pet project, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter second-engine program, was cut. The group not only appeared to be inexperienced, but they dispelled any previous campaign promises of bipartisanship, and high-minded fiscal debate.
And we may be in a new transition period of House leadership evolution in which Tea Party Republicans are not easily controlled, and can compromise even the personal hold of their party's de facto leader.
This post was updated at 11:30 a.m. on February 22.
CLARIFICATION: The original version of this post referenced a candidate instead of an overall race. Both Rep. Chris Murphy (D) and former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) are running for Senate in Connecticut.
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