March 2011

The Republican Party of Florida wants no part in a dispute that could cost the state influence in the GOP nominating contest, the state party chairman said late Thursday, putting the party at odds with its leaders in the state legislature.

In a statement, RPOF chairman Dave Bitner said he hoped to work with the Republican National Committee to find an appropriate date for Florida's primary just hours after the chairmen of the South Carolina and Iowa parties threatened to strip Florida of the convention because of its noncompliance.

(See background on South Carolina, Iowa and their call for a new convention location here)

"As chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, my primary concern is what is in the best interest of Florida and Florida Republicans. I commend our Legislature for standing up for Florida voters, by ensuring we have an early voice in the presidential primary process," Bitner said in the statement. "There are many reasons why Florida should have an early and significant role in selecting the Republican presidential nominee, yet I understand the Republican National Committee is looking to maintain an orderly primary calendar."

At the moment, Florida's presidential primary is scheduled to take place in late January, before February, when Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's primary are scheduled. South Carolina, the traditional first primary contest in the South, is also fiercely protective of its place in the Republican nominating process, while Nevada is also allowed to hold caucuses in February, according to party rules.

But, the RPOF insisted, the party doesn't intend to hop the early states.

When it comes to New Jersey state government, Gov. Chris Christie (R) is the boss. But when it comes to everything else in the Garden State, that title is held by Bruce Springsteen.

A recent article in a New Jersey newspaper that touched on, among other things, some of Christie's proposed spending cuts piqued the boss' (er, the one that has his own band) interest.

In a letter to the editor that was printed in New Jersey's Asbury Park Press, Springsteen praises a recent story the paper ran titled "As poverty rises, cuts target aid."

"The article is one of the few that highlights the contradictions between a policy of large tax cuts, on the one hand, and cuts in services to those in the most dire conditions, on the other," Springsteen writes.

The story Springsteen cites looks at, among other things, some portions of Christie's budget proposal that anti-poverty groups want reversed.

Even though their politics may not align (Springsteen supported President Obama and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in the last two presidential elections), Christie is a big Springsteen fan, and a 2009 article indicated he had attended 120 Springsteen concerts.

Proposed Congressional boundaries in Iowa would pit the state's two remaining Republicans, Reps. Steve King and Tom Latham, against each other in a massive district stretching from the Missouri River to the outskirts of Des Moines.

The proposal is a blow to Republicans, who expected to see Latham's northern Iowa district combined with Rep. Leonard Boswell's (D) Des Moines-based seat. Strategists on both sides expected that new district to be a toss-up, winnable by either party.

Instead, Democratic Reps. Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack have been lumped into the same district, while an open district in the Southeast corner of the state is heavily Democratic territory. President Obama won 57 percent of the two-party vote in the new southeast district, which includes the Quad Cities and Iowa City. Obama took 59 percent of the vote in the northeastern First District, which contains Braley's bases in Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, as well as Loebsack's Mt. Vernon home.

Boswell's district would actually shed some Democratic voters. His current district is centered in Des Moines and stretches east along Interstate 80; it gave Obama 54 percent of the vote in 2008. His new district, which lumps Des Moines into the southwest corner of the state and includes Council Bluffs, gave Obama 53 percent of the vote in 2008, slightly under Obama's 54 percent statewide winning percentage.

The controversy surrounding Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's (R) budget proposals has spilled over into the campaign for his old job. Walker served as Milwaukee County executive from 2002 through 2010, but the governor is now being used as a rallying cry in the race for his replacement. Philanthropist Chris Abele's campaign released an ad Wednesday warning voters of the dangers of putting a Walker ally in office.

The spot, which was produced by the Democratic media firm Ralston Lapp, paints Abele's opponent, state Rep. Jeff Stone (R), as Walker's ideological doppelganger. It begins with a narrator saying, "If you like what Scott Walker's done, then you'll love Jeff Stone." The ad then features grainy footage of Stone calling Walker "a great governor" during a campaign event. Watch the full ad after the jump.

West Virginia gubernatorial candidate and state Treasurer John Perdue (D) is going up with a two-minute television spot that bills him as a "big man with big ideas," as he seeks to separate himself from other Democratic candidates on the issue of utility rates.

"His friend Robert Byrd used to call him 'Big John,'" says the narrator of the ad. "Six foot six; and tough as nails; he's a big man with big ideas," various supporters say in the ad.

The ad, which you can check out after the jump, was produced by Fletcher, Rowley & Riddle and will air Thursday and Friday.

Updated at 4:11 p.m.

The heads of the Republican Parties in South Carolina and Iowa are sending a stern message to Florida Republicans, calling for a new task force to select a new site for the 2012 Republican National Convention if Florida carries through on threats to hold its presidential primary early, in violation of RNC rules.

"If Florida refuses to move its primary date into compliance with RNC rules, I am respectfully requesting that the Committee convene a special task force to select a new site for the 2012 Convention outside the state of Florida," South Carolina GOP Chair Karen Floyd wrote in a letter sent to committee members Thursday morning.

The 2012 GOP convention is slated to take place in Tampa, Florida.

"Simply put, if Florida does not respect the process by which our primary calendar was set, the RNC should not be bound to the process by which the convention site was selected."

Meanwhile, Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn released a statement Thursday echoing Floyd's sentiment.

"The contempt that Florida legislators hold not only for the RNC 2012 rules, but also for the RNC members who approved these rules, is astonishing. To reward this arrogance with our national convention is a great disservice to the Republican activists, donors and elected officials nationwide who support the RNC," Strawn said.

A solid majority of Members of Congress in both parties say that it is not an acceptable outcome for Libyan leader Muammar el-Qaddafi to remain in power once U.S. military operations that have struck at his regime are concluded, according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Members of Congress divided along predictable partisan lines over whether President Obama should have sought their formal approval before authorizing military operations in Libya, according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Stephen Colbert decides to start his own PAC, "Being a pundit these days is not enough anymore. If you want to be a political playa' in 2012 you need a PAC."

Jon Stewart wants to know which 2012 GOPer will be able to connect with, "Base-istan. Base-istan of course that rarest of countries where somehow every part of the country is in the middle."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:41 when former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin introduces a new word to the English language. Then let us know which "Palin-ism" is you're favorite in our Late Night Poll.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. It's Opening Day in Major League Baseball, while it's the final day for candidates to file their FEC reports for the first quarter of 2011. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) quotes an unlikely source, while Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) remains "torn" over a Senate bid (cue the Natalie Imbruglia song), and Joe Donnelly inches closer to one in Indiana. Here's today's rundown:

8) Rooting for the home team .... er, their home team: Georgia Reps. Tom Price (R) and John Barrow (D) both have scheduled fundraisers at Nationals Park for today's game between the Nats and the Atlanta Braves.

7) The Ohio Legislature voted Wednesday to severely limit collective-bargaining rights of 350,000 public workers. Gov. John Kasich (R) is expected to sign the measure by the end of the week.

6) A new Quinnipiac University poll out today shows Republicans leading a 2012 House generic ballot among registered voters, 40 percent to Democrats' 37 percent. But keep in mind: This is the same sample that on Wednesday showed President Obama's approval rating at 42 percent, while new Gallup (49 percent) and Associated Press (53 percent) have the president's approval rating significantly higher among all adults.

Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.) hasn't exactly been setting aside time to hang out with Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) lately. He opted against an opportunity to appear at a border event with Flake and other GOP members of the state's congressional delegation last week.

But the two are slated to attend the same fundraiser in Washington early next week, just days after Franks will reportedly announce his entrance into the Senate race this Saturday, joining Flake in the GOP primary.

Both Flake and Franks are scheduled to appear at a fundraiser for Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu (R) on April 6 in Washington, according to an invitation to the fundraiser.

You may remember Babeu as the sheriff in Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) 2010 "Complete the Danged Fence" television ad.

Even though he has not yet entered the Senate race, New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) already finds himself under attack from state Democrats, who are criticizing him in a fundraising email to supporters.

"Lt. Governor John Sanchez... was in Washington last week courting the Tea Party and the extreme right wing of the Republican Party to help him in his primary against [former Rep.] Heather Wilson (R)," writes New Mexico Democratic Party Chairman Javier Gonzales in the email.

While he is exploring a bid, Sanchez is not officially in the Senate race yet and Wilson has yet to hit back at him, even though he has openly questioned her conservative credentials.

"Clearly this is going to be a race to see who can be the most conservative candidate in the field," Gonzales continues. "New Mexico does not need a Tea Party Senator like Rand Paul who wants to cut 25% of the budget across the board."

Democratic campaign officials are looking at closely at contesting the Senate race in Indiana, where Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) is at risk of losing the Republican nomination to a candidate running to his right, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R).

They liken the situation in Indiana to the 2010 Senate races in Delaware and Nevada, where weak conservative candidates emerged and ended up losing winnable races.

But while Mourdock upsetting the longtime senator would give Democrats a better shot at picking up the seat - no Democrat even challenged Lugar in 2006 - the party still would face a tough task winning in a Republican-friendly state. Here's why:

Mourdock's Part Of The Establishment: While Mourdock does not have the experience Lugar has winning Senate races, he is a statewide officeholder in his second term. Mourdock was elected treasurer in 2006 and cruised to reelection in 2010. Neither Christine O'Donnell (R) nor Sharron Angle (R) had that record of success going into their respective races.

Mourdock rejected the notion that if Republicans nominate him over Lugar, Democrats will suddenly be able to put the seat in play. He specifically contrasted his record with that of Tea Party candidates, noting he's been on the ballot in Indiana six times before - and was recruited to run for Democratic ex-Rep.Brad Ellsworth's open House seat last year.

"This isn't my first rodeo," he told Hotline On Call.

Here's the latest sign the GOP presidential race is off to a slower start than many had originally anticipated: a debate scheduled to honor Ronald Reagan's centennial birthday sponsored by NBC News/Politico that was originally scheduled for May has been moved back to September.

"Although there will be a long and impressive list of Republican candidates who eventually take the field, too few have made the commitment thus far for a debate to be worthwhile in early May," said Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation executive director John Heubusch.

The next debate on the horizon to keep an eye on: a May 5 debate in Greenville being sponsored Fox News and the South Carolina Republican Party. The debate is slated to take place just before the state party's "Silver Elephant," event (the party's main fundraiser) on May 6 and the election of a new state chair on May 7. So far, there are no changes in the schedule of the Greenville debate.

"We have a number of candidates who have expressed interest and who have given us backchannel commitments that they will be here. We're looking forward to having a very well attended debate on the 5th," said South Carolina GOP executive director Joel Sawyer.

The shifting of the NBC News/Politico debate at the Reagan Presidential Library to September 14 means that four debates are now slated to take place over a six-week period: there will be a debate in Ames, Iowa on August 11, followed debates in Tampa, Florida on September 5 and Orlando on September 22.

--Tim Alberta contributed to this post--

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama has more kind words for Tim Kaine, while his own approval ratings hit a low point in one poll. And an Arizona Senate showdown is set to kick off this weekend. Here's today's rundown:

10) Why ask Rye? Rye Town Supervisor Joe Carvin is leading a charge to dissolve the Town of Rye, which he's headed for three years.

9) He's only been in office for a couple months, but California lieutenant governor Gavin Newsom (D) is already making noise about running for governor - in 2014.

8) Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) gave his first national television interview as a senator to ABC News last night. Now he's out with a Wall Street Journal op-ed that should ingratiate him with the Tea Party crowd, writing he won't vote to raise the debt ceiling limit.

7) Former Arizona Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) said she's running again for her old House seat against Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), making her the first former member who lost in 2010 to pursue a comeback.

Conan O'Brien thinks President Obama sent the wrong message by scheduling his speech early so that it wouldn't interfere with 'Dancing With The Stars', "As of now the Obama policy is: He's willing to embroil us in a third war but not willing to interrupt the Karate Kid's macarena."

Obama's address reminded Stephen Colbert of a 'dog's breakfast': "Obama's speech was like bacon, jalapeno corn muffins and Corn Muffins."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:40 for a not-to-subtle hint to Libyan rebels.

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump!

A plurality of voters -- and a majority of independent voters -- thinks the U.S. military should not be involved in Libya right now, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday that also shows President Obama with his lowest-ever approval rating and re-elect score.

Just 41 percent of American voters say the U.S. is doing the right thing by using military force in Libya right now, while 47 percent believe that the U.S. should not be involved in the North African nation. Among independents, that support slips to 38 percent, with 51 percent saying the U.S. should not be involved.

The percentage of independents who say the U.S. is doing the right thing in Libya is lower than the percentage of Democrats (48 percent) or Republicans (40 percent) who approve of the use military force, echoing the results of two other surveys released over the last week that also showed support for the Libya mission lagging among independents.

A Pew Research Center poll of all adults, conducted last Thursday to Sunday, showed a plurality (47 percent) believed the U.S. and its allies made the right decision to use military force in Libya. But only 44 percent of independents agreed, trailing Democrats (49 percent) and Republicans (54 percent).

A CBS News poll, conducted over the first two days of air strikes (March 20-21), showed stronger support for allied intervention, but independents still lagged behind members of either party.

The lack of support among independents is a cautionary sign for the Obama administration -- particularly if the military remains involved in Libya indefinitely. While they are less likely to support the mission in Libya, independents are also more likely to vote for a generic Republican over Obama (32 to 28 percent) in the Quinnipiac survey, and a majority (52 percent) believes Obama does not deserve re-election.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted March 22-28; the vast majority of interviews were conducted before Obama's address to the nation Monday night. Quinnipiac surveyed 2,069 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percent.

Should former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) be faced with a choice for president between two fellow Minnesotans -- Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) -- he'd go with Pawlenty, he told Hotline On Call on Tuesday.

"I've been on the Tim bandwagon for a while," Coleman said. "In the last cycle I said he'd be a great president ... and I've been consulting on and off with him since."

But Coleman said he's also spoken with Bachmann about her plans and "what's in her heart." The possibility that both the congresswoman and Pawlenty will make a White House bid presents a dilemma for him.

"I've got one guy that's in and another very close friend who's thinking about being in," Coleman said. "At this point, I am there with Tim, but I have only good things to say about Michele Bachmann."

Coleman said he would adhere to Ronald Reagan's "11th commandment" that "Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican," adding, "I'm not saying I would be actively against [Bachmann], so in that sense it wouldn't be a competition."

Even as Bachmann is mulling a presidential campaign, she filed statement of candidacy forms with the Federal Election Commission Tuesday, allowing her to raise money for a House reelection campaign, should she decide not to make a presidential bid.

Coleman is currently CEO of the independent political organization American Action Network, which spent more than $26 million on the 2010 federal elections, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

It's hard out there for a moderate.

That was the consensus among three former Democratic members at a roundtable this morning sponsored by the centrist think tank Third Way. While one-term members Dan Maffei (D-N.Y.) and Glenn Nye (D-Va.) were both swept out of their swing districts in the GOP tidal wave, Artur Davis (D-Ala.) stepped down from his safe seat to run for governor - but he was trounced in the Democratic primary by an opponent who argued he was too moderate.

And all three recently-departed representatives don't necessarily see it getting easier for those within their shrinking ranks as pressures on both the right and the left pull them in competing directions.

"In the past, there weren't the sort of forces that affected reelection as much as there are now," said Maffei, now a senior fellow at Third Way after losing to Republican Ann Marie Buerkle by just 648 votes last November.

The onetime congressional aide cited past redistricting cycles that created more solid Republican or Democratic seats, resulting in less true swing districts, as one reason for the amped-up pressure.

"It's much harder to get elected as a moderate--and even if you can get elected, it's harder to stay there as a moderate and survive these swing elections," said Maffei. "Even if you can stay, you're spending so much time going back to your district, so much time raising money being concerned about your own reelection that you can't do the things you need to do to move up in the leadership."

Republicans are publicly bullish on their prospects of targeting Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.). But the Garden State has given Republicans more than their share of headaches in recent years, and ousting Menendez will take an extraordinary effort in 2012.

The GOP has hammered Menendez in recent weeks for holding on to contributions from a New York real estate developer currently facing federal conspiracy and money-laundering charges. Menendez will give up $10,500 he had received from real estate developer Aaron Malinsky and his family since 2007.

"Sen. Menendez believes in honoring the highest ethical standards and, in an abundance of caution, has decided to donate the contributions from this campaign cycle to charity," a Menendez spokesperson said.

Both Sens. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) have also announced they will give up Malinsky's cash. But Menendez's decision didn't stop Republicans from continuing their attack.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee continued to highlight Menendez's past, and lambasted the senator for "angrily" denying, as the Bergen Record put it, that he faces an ongoing federal investigation of his prior activities.

The GOP's goal isn't necessarily to tag Menendez with Malinsky. Instead, it's the opening salvo of an effort to rehash some of the incumbent's past ethical issues. "This is a way, frankly, to sort of begin to raise some of the questions surrounding him," said Republican pollster Adam Geller, the CEO of National Research Inc. "It's a very legitimate way to do it. Clearly, it's early but that certainly is part of the strategy to begin to raise some of the surrounding his incumbency. It's actually a very smart thing to do right now."

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's (D) successful clash with his own party over the state's budget - one where he made significant cuts while holding the line on taxes - is quickly moving him up the ranks of Democrats to watch. At a time when many Republican and Democratic governors alike have seen their popularity erode after making painful budget cuts, Cuomo's approval is still sky-high.

Cuomo has succeeded by taking a different ideological tack than his famously liberal father (former Gov. Mario Cuomo), and pursuing a centrist approach to governance. It's a path that could lead him to national attention in the future, Republican and Democratic strategists agree.

"So far, he's on a very good path," said long-time GOP strategist Ed Rollins. He added that Cuomo is "far and away the most significant Democrat in the country except the president" when it comes to politics.

He's managed the remarkable feat of uniting Democrats and conservatives, in a state known for its endless political gridlock. New York Conservative Party chairman Mike Long is a fan of his budget. He's won support from Republican party officeholders, past and present. Even New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) has declared Cuomo one of his "favorite" governors in a recent address.

According to the latest Siena College poll, Cuomo's favorability rating is at 69 percent with more than two-thirds of Republicans and more than half of conservatives giving him high marks, according to pollster Steven Greenberg. The poll shows that 72 percent of those surveyed say they "trust" Cuomo to handle the budget more than either of the state legislature's chamber leaders.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama delivers a major address on Libya, while his own reelection plans come into focus. Meanwhile, Indiana Democrats come home and Marco Rubio goes national - again. Here's today's rundown:

10) Move over, Bo: California Gov. Jerry Brown's (D) 7-year-old Pembroke Welsh corgi, Sutter, has become a celebrity, and has starred in blog posts and front-page news stories. He's even become a fixture in budget negotiations -- actually sitting at the bargaining table once.

9) Indiana House Democrats ended a cross-state stalemate and returned to the House floor for the first time in more than a month on Monday.

8) Meanwhile in Washington, a federal government shutdown is looking increasingly likely.

7) Former GOP Rep. Pete Hoekstra said he will decide whether to run for Senate in the next two weeks against Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).

The late night hosts go after President Obama's address to the nation. Jimmy Kimmel: "Obama tonight explained his decision to attack Libya and expanded on his plan to bomb Virginia Commonwealth for screwing up his bracket."

David Letterman can't believe that Obama could accidentally get locked out of the Oval Office.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast Forward to 1:50 when rebel inuit's storm parliament.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

In a case that could deal another setback to campaign finance laws nationwide, the Supreme Court heard arguments Monday to determine whether governments are constitutionally allowed to help publicly financed candidates maintain financial parity with privately financed opponents .

The case, McComish v. Bennett, features a set of conservative business groups challenging the constitutionality of the Arizona law, which they contend undermines their 1st Amendment right to free speech. The law mandates public-financed candidates, after contributions exceed an original lump sum, receive additional subsidies for every dollar their privately financed opponents raise or every dollar spent on attack ads by third-party groups.

Supporters of the law contended that it encourages political speech and stymies corruption. Arizona voters originally passed the law, the Citizens Clean Elections Act, in 1998 after a string of corruption cases there. Critics of the law told the justices Monday that it limits free-speech rights for groups and candidates who opt against using public financing.

The attorney for the business groups, William Maurer, argued that the matching funds inhibit candidates and other potential donors from contributing money. Why make a $1,000 contribution, he argued, when it guarantees the same amount will be delivered to the other candidate?

Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock was never expecting Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-Ind.) to endorse him as he mounts a primary challenge against Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.). But he said that Daniels offered encouragement for him to run--an important factor in his decision to challenge the longtime senator.

"Before I decided to do this, he and I had three different conversations about it," Mourdock said in an interview with Hotline On Call. "And every time, he said, 'Richard Mourdock, don't you ever, ever, ever let anyone tell you don't have every right to do this. You've earned the right. You worked 31 years in the business world. We don't have that kind of experience very often in Washington."

Earlier this month in an appearance on Meet the Press, Daniels said he planned to vote for Lugar, but the governor stopped short of endorsing the longtime senator and called Mourdock a friend. Mourdock said Daniels told him the same thing, and never discouraged him from challenging Lugar. Daniels has a long history with Lugar, having served as his top aide as a young political operative.

"I'm very comfortable with what the governor did given his position," Mourdock said. "Why shouldn't they be friends? Why shouldn't he vote for him? I get that." Mourdock called himself a Daniels ally and said he would support him if he ran for president.

"Our country needs him," Mourdock said.

Over the weekend, West Virginia House Speaker Rick Thompson (D) went up with the first television ad of the state's 2011 gubernatorial contest.

The ad, titled "One" and produced by SKDKnickerbocker's Bill Knapp, is a biographical spot that aims to portray Thompson as a hardworking candidate from humble beginnings who worked his way up in the face of adversity.

"Rick Thompson's father died in a coal mining accident before he was born," the narrator of the ad says. "Rick was raised by his grandparents in a house with no running water."

The ad began airing Saturday and the Thompson campaign says they plan to be up on television with various spots from now until the primary on May 14, but would not specify the size of the buy.

Check out the full 30-second ad below the jump:

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Potential presidential candidates gather in the Hawkeye State while a potential Senate contender in the Aloha State lays out a timeline for his decision. Meanwhile, President Obama gets ready for a major address this evening. Here's today's rundown:

10) Okay, okay. We've probably inundated you with enough whoopie pie news the last couple of weeks. So today, we'll just let the picture in this story speak for itself.

9) So a reporter walks into a closet at a fundraiser featuring Vice President Joe Biden ... no, this is not the beginning of another Biden joke; it actually happened. Orlando Sentinel reporter Scott Powers provides a firsthand account, in some detail, of what actually happened at a Wednesday fundraiser in Florida.

He says he was led into a space he called a closet (because it was "stuffed with shelves, boxes, baskets and other items in storage") to wait until Biden and Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) arrived and was told he would not be able to speak with any of the people at the party. Powers says Biden's office later emailed with an apology.

8) Will he accept their friend request (insert other cheesy Facebook reference here)? The New York Times reports, Facebook is in talks to hire former White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs for a senior role in helping to manage the company's communications.

7) Rep. Bob Filner (D-Calif.) may be leaving the House to run for mayor of San Diego, at least according to an attendee at a speech he delivered over the weekend. If he runs, it is a direct consequence of the (non-partisan) redistricting process in California -- he represents a majority-Hispanic district that's likely to be grow even more Hispanic when the new lines are drawn. That makes him awfully vulnerable in a Democratic primary.

Watch closely at other Democrats, like veteran Rep. Howard Berman (D-Calif.) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who may find themselves after redistricting in changed districts where they could be vulnerable to a Hispanic primary challenge.

A week after announcing an exploratory committee for president, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's (R) campaign is rolling out his finance team in preparation for a strong fundraising performance this spring.

The second fundraising quarter, which begins April 1, is crucial for Pawlenty as he seeks to prove his viability in the wide-open Republican presidential field. Pawlenty is lesser-known nationally than many of his prospective rivals, but a strong quarter would prove his bona fides.

Pawlenty has told his backers to hold off until the beginning of next month to begin contributing -- to maximize the second-quarter fundraising figure.

For his team, Pawlenty has tapped Brian Haley as his national finance director. Haley served a similar role for Pawlenty's Freedom First political action committee, and previously served as the deputy national finance director for John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign.

Pawlenty's deputy national finance director will be Katie McBreen, who most recently served as the finance director for newly-elected Sen. Jerry Moran's (R-Kan.) campaign. She worked for Mitt Romney's campaign in the last presidential election.

Another notable get: Ann Herberger, a close ally of the Bush family and one of Romney's leading fundraisers in 2008. She also assisted now-Sen. Marco Rubio's (R-Fla.) campaign with fundraising when he was the clear underdog in the Florida Senate primary last year. Herberger will be serving as a senior finance consultant, with a focus on national outreach. She is currently President of the Woods Herberger group.

Bill Maher questions President Obama's Nobel Peace Prize now that he's involved in three wars, "He said he's going to keep it, but he would only wear it with his tie that looks like a keyboard so people know it's 'ironic'."

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., could face eligibility problems during a White House 2012 run.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00 when Obama fulfills another campaign promise.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- The major news of the week - the U.S.'s military intervention with Libya - had each Republican presidential hopeful clamoring at the chance to express his or her own opinion on foreign policy. Most potential candidates expressed support for military action while chastising Pres. Obama's handling of the situation.

But it was ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) who made the most news, by changing his position on Libya. Critics attacked Gingrich for "flip-flopping," and Gingrich responded to these attacks - both explaining himself on Facebook and during an appearance in South Carolina. Being portrayed as a flip-flopping politician pandering to the electorate won't do him any favors.

-- Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), to borrow a phrase from our friend Chris Cillizza, easily had the worst week in Washington. She was already facing a challenging re-election, but the fact that she owes over a quarter-million in back taxes for a private plane does significant damage to her populist, good-government image. When you embrace the image of being a no-nonsense reformer - she recently co-sponsored legislation calling on federal employees to be fired for not paying back taxes - this kind of story has even more sticking power.

Even odder: She granted her first interview to a local morning show, and seemed utterly unprepared to respond to many of the allegations against her - unusual for a senator traditionally adept with rapid response (she's one of the most prolific senators who Tweet). It suggests the scandal has real staying power, and may have done irreparable damage to her re-election prospects.

-- Immigration is still a dominant issue for GOP voters in Arizona. Witness Rep. Jeff Flake's (R-Ariz.) overnight transformation; going from being a leading proponent of comprehensive reform to becoming a border security hardliner. Even though he has no official Republican opponent yet, he still took criticism over his flip this week. Just think of how nasty things will get if Rep. Trent Franks (R) - who notably skipped a border event featuring Flake and other GOP members of the state's Congressional delegation - gets in the race, as many observers expect.

-- Although he's not yet a Senate candidate, Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R-N.M.) gave us a clear glimpse of his primary campaign strategy: define former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) as a moderate before she can redefine herself. But while Wilson clearly wants to paint herself as conservative, she has a somewhat strange strategy for dealing with Sanchez so far: after he hit her repeatedly in several publications Thursday, on ABC's "Topline" Friday she passed on the chance to either defend herself or retaliate.

Which Ohio figure enjoys an approval rating over 50 percent among both Democrat and Republican voters? Here's a hint: he's someone whose approval rating in Michigan would be in the single digits, if that.

Ohio State University football coach Jim Tressel may be embroiled in controversy, but 56 percent of Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of him, according to a Quinnipiac University poll, with both Republicans (58 percent) and Democrats (54 percent) viewing him in an almost equally favorable light.

How does Tressel stack up against other Ohio political figures? The Quinnipiac poll did not ask the fav/unfav question of the state's two senators and its newly elected governor, so an apples to apples comparison isn't possible.

It did test their job approval ratings, and just 30 percent of Ohio voters approve of the job Gov. John Kasich (R) is doing, while 46 percent disapprove. Sen. Rob Portman (R) had a 30-25 percent job approval rating with 45 percent undecided. The same poll found that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) had a 43-27 percent job approval rating with 30 percent not sure.

The ongoing strife in Libya will be the top topic on the Sunday shows. All three broadcast networks will host Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary Robert Gates to discuss the administration's involvement in the conflict.

Also on the topic of Libya, CNN's "State Of The Union" will talk to Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), former National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley and Retired Gen. Michael Hayden; while "Fox News Sunday" brings in Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).

Fox News will also discuss the road to the White House 2012 race with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. And CSPAN will air Rep. Steve King's (R-Iowa) Conservative Principles PAC Conference on Saturday at 10 am. The conference, based in Des Moines, Iowa, will host several potential Republican presidential nominees including Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), Gingrich, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.).

Get the full listings after the jump.

New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) did a round of interviews in Washington Thursday, and in each one, he wasn't bashful about rejecting the notion that former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) is sufficiently conservative.

"I don't believe that she is a conservative Republican. I think clearly, her record as a congresswoman is indicative of that," Sanchez told Hotline On Call.

Wilson, who appeared on ABC's "Top Line" Friday afternoon, had a chance to hit back right off the bat when she was asked about Sanchez's comments.

But she refused to engage.

"Well John hasn't decided whether he will run or not," Wilson said. "When he does, I'm sure we will have an opportunity to compare our records."

Wilson sought to underscore her conservative credentials in the interview, saying she is a "pro-life, pro-Second Amendment Republican."

The former congresswoman, who lost to a more conservative opponent -- Rep. Steve Pearce (R) -- in the 2008 Senate primary, may find herself facing a strong challenge on her right again this time around. While Sanchez has not officially entered the race, all indications are that he will in the near future.

"2008 was a very different year," Wilson said. She said the nation is faced with serious fiscal problems and that it is important to look forward.

Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) announced Friday that he will not run for the Senate in 2012, citing family reasons and his current job as he ended months of speculation over whether he would mount a challenge to Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.).

"I've got two small children and it's hard enough to get to spend a lot of good quality time now. I have a wife. They are all very important to me and at the end of the day family has to be number one,'' Mack told the St. Petersburg Times.

In recent months, signs pointed toward a Mack run: he was hitting Nelson in fundraising emails and had even hired a veteran fundraiser.

"He's got a pretty good gig now and is torn by the idea of giving that up,'' said Miami fundraiser Ana Navarro. "He is quite fulfilled by his position as Chair of Western Hemisphere Subcommittee which is one of his areas of great interest and where he thinks he can make a difference.''

Lee County Commissioner Tammy Hall, who spoke with Mack Wednesday night, said he never mentioned anything about the Senate race - even though they've discussed it in the past since she's been interested in running for the House herself.

The Census Bureau released detailed data on its final set of states Thursday: New York, Maine and Washington, D.C.

-- New York grew by a scant 2 percent in the last decade, one of the slowest rates of growth in the nation. Upstate New York was responsible for much of this: Buffalo's population shrank by 11 percent, Rochester shrank by 4 percent and Syracuse shrank by 1.5 percent. But New York City grew by the same slow 2 percent as the rest of the state, according to the Census. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the Census Bureau undercounted immigrants and minorities in the city and said the numbers "don't make any sense" after they were released.

If not for new minority residents, the state would have shrunk: There are almost a half million fewer non-Hispanic white residents of the Empire State than a decade ago and almost 30,000 fewer blacks. On the other hand, the Latino population grew by more than a half million people and there are 370,000 more Asians in the state today. The Hispanic population grew by almost one fifth, while the Asian population grew by more than one third.

New York's slow growth cost it two congressional seats, dropping it to 27 congressional seats from 45 seats in 1950. With control of the redistricting process split between Democrats and Republicans, it is likely one seat will come from an Upstate Republican while the other will be a New York City Democrat. The fast Hispanic growth also means legislators may have to draw another Hispanic-majority district in the city, although this may not happen as it would be hard to create one without decreasing the black percentage of another district, and it is difficult to tweak the city's maps much because of how close different communities are to each other.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. All eyes are on Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.), who is set to make an announcement on the 2012 Senate race in Florida. Meanwhile, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) gets grilled and nationwide Census figures show a booming Hispanic population. Here's today's rundown:

6) Under a new bill sent to Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam (R) on Thursday, laws will no longer will include terms such as " idiot," "lunatic," "mentally retarded" and "handicapped." But sponsors of the legislation hesitated when it came to changing one law that forbids issuing marriage licenses when the applicants appear to be "drunk, insane or an imbecile."

5) Doug Hampton, a former aide to Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) who implicated himself in wrongdoing in an effort to bring Ensign down for having an affair with his wife, has been charged with violating a law that forbids senior Senate staffers from lobbying the Senate for a year after they leave.

4) Congressional Republicans are sharply divided over how to critique America's military efforts in Libya. As President Obama's handling of the situation continues to be watched closely, varying reactions from Capitol Hill Republicans and from potential Republican presidential candidates illustrates how difficult it is to form a consensus view, even within a party, on this issue.

3) Berkley sat down with Jon Ralston on "Face to Face" Thursday. She didn't disclose whether she is running or not, but the transcript is worth a read, and the decision-making process has clearly been on Berkley's mind for a while.

Quote of the interview: "Jon, you know, I feel like I have been pregnant now for 15 months," Berkley told Ralston.

New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) isn't even an official Senate candidate yet, but he's already taking shots at former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.), the current GOP front-runner in the race.

"I don't believe that she is a conservative Republican. I think clearly, her record as a congresswoman is indicative of that," Sanchez said in an interview Thursday afternoon with Hotline On Call.

Sanchez, who has not yet served three months as lt. gov., is seriously considering making a bid for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D). If he enters the race, as most observers expect him to, he will set up a primary that could be similar to the 2008 GOP Senate primary; a bruising, heated race in which Rep. Steve Pearce (R) -- who ran to the right of the more moderate Wilson -- won narrowly only to later lose badly in the general election.

If Sanchez -- who ran for governor in 2002 -- runs, not only will he be underscoring his conservative credentials, but he will also make a concerted effort to reach out to the state's Hispanic voters. Republicans struggled mightily to attract Hispanic voters in various states across the country in 2010 including California and Arizona. But New Mexico elected the nation's first Hispanic female governor, Susana Martinez -- a Republican, no less -- last cycle.

"The message I think is correct. I think really the key is the right messengers," said Sanchez of what Republicans have been doing wrong when it comes to reaching out to Hispanic voters. He pointed out that the state's top three elected officials -- Martinez, Secretary of State Dianna Duran and himself -- are all Hispanic Republicans.

The Census Bureau released state-level data for three more states Wednesday: South Carolina, West Virginia, and Rhode Island.

-- South Carolina grew at the fast clip of 15 percent in the last decade, although the recession had a major effect here: it had grown 18 percent from 2000 to 2008, and saw a population drop in the last few years. The fastest-growing parts of the state were the population centers: The state's five largest cities all grew by double digits, as did its 10 largest counties.

The fastest-growing parts of the state were near the coast and in Charlotte, North Carolina's exurbs. Charleston and North Charleston grew by about one quarter and Summerville, up the road, grew by more than half. Horry County, which includes Myrtle Beach, grew by more than a third. York County, in Charlotte's suburbs, also grew by more than a third. The state's rural areas grew more slowly or lost population.

South Carolina's fast growth, unlike that of most other southern states, was driven as much by whites as by minorities. The Latino population did grow by 15 percent, and Hispanics now make up 5 percent of the state, but the African American population grew more slowly than other groups and dipped a bit from 29 percent to 27 percent of the state's population.

The state is gaining a congressional seat, and Republicans control the map after courts drew it last time. Although the black population didn't grow as fast as other groups, there has been much speculation that depending on detailed data the Justice Department, which must approve any map because of South Carolina's history of racial discrimination under the Voting Rights Act, might insist that a second majority-black (and presumably Democratic) congressional seat be drawn.

GREENVILLE, S.C. -- If former House Speaker Newt Gingrich does run for president, former South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson will likely be his chief strategist in the state.

"If he runs, I'll be with him," Dawson told Hotline On Call. "I'm trying to encourage him to."

Gingrich also echoed the one-time candidate for RNC chair's praises, saying there was "no question" he would be his top adviser in the crucial early state.

"I think, frankly, having Katon Dawson's help is an enormous asset," Gingrich said of his South Carolina chances.

Dawson wasn't able to support a candidate during the 2008 campaign, when he was head of the state Republican party, but in 2000 backed George W. Bush over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in their contentious face-off. And more than 10 years later, he's relishing his ability to make a pick, calling Gingrich the best Republican candidate to go toe-to-toe with President Obama intellectually.

The Cook Political Report on Thursday downgraded Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill's re-election chances to "toss-up" after a private jet controversy that could undercut her image as a government reformer.

"There is nothing voters hate more than politicians who don't pay their taxes or what voters perceive as their fair share of taxes," Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy writes.

"The only thing they hate more than that is when the wealthy don't pay their taxes. It seems unlikely that McCaskill as a wealthy politician is going to be forgiven simply because she discovered the problem and paid the taxes."

In a state where the electorate's right-leaning tilt already made McCaskill's 2012 prospects difficult, the senator's self-inflicted wound only complicates her hopes for re-election.

"It's certainly possible, but McCaskill's path to a second term has gotten considerably steeper than it was two weeks ago," Duffy writes.

The race, which had been rated as "lean Democrat," is considered one of the GOP's best pickup opportunities next year as the party tries to reclaim control of the Senate. Since McCaskill's victory over incumbent Sen. Jim Talent in 2006, Missouri has trended increasingly to the right, including handing Republican presidential nominee John McCain a narrow victory in 2008 over President Obama.

Days after taking a pass on criticizing President Obama's leadership in Libya, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is cautioning against the incursion and accusing the president of a lack of leadership.

Appearing on "The Gallo Show" on Jackson's 97.3FM Thursday morning, Barbour questioned the reason for the operation, edging closer to the GOP field's consensus criticism of Obama.

"We haven't provided leadership in this administration," Barbour said. "In fact, the Obama administration's position has been to say, you know, we're just one of the boys, so we're not going to try to be the leader. And we see that when you don't have strong leadership from the strongest country in the world, that everybody else scatters out and breaks up."

Just last week, Barbour declined to criticize Obama's Libya approach. "I think we need to be cautious about being quick on the trigger," Barbour said, while still voicing a skeptical note of the mission.

"The other question though, is what are we doing in Libya?" the Mississippi governor added. "I mean we have to be careful in my mind, about getting into nation building exercises. Whether it's in Libya or somebody else."

Citing U.S. government claims that there are only 100 al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, Barbour questioned whether "mission creep" had set in.

"I'm not saying do this, do that, what I am saying is we need to step back and take a look at what we're doing and see if we got the resources there, is all that necessary for our mission to be accomplished," he said.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is preparing to kick off a presidential campaign.

On Thursday, as Bachmann was touring Iowa, CNN reported that the congresswoman plans to file exploratory papers for a presidential campaign by June.

The CNN report cites an unnamed source close to Bachmann saying that though she often references "early June" as the deadline for her decision, "nothing is static," and the announcement that she will form the committee could come even earlier.

"The congresswoman is grateful for all the encouragement she's received," Bachmann spokesman Doug Sachtleben said in a statement. "She will make a decision about 2012 this summer. There is a natural timeline to these events and they will run their course."

CNN has also reported that Iowa Republican state Sen. Kent Sorenson will likely be hired to serve as Bachmann's political director for the state - and that Bachmann aides "hope to have a complete team together for Iowa by this weekend."

Bachmann has been traveling the presidential circuit lately. She's visited New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina, all states that will hold crucial early presidential contests.

Sean Sullivan wrote today on Rep. Jeff Flake's (R-Ariz.) effort to emulate Sen. John McCain's political strategy by backing away from comprehensive immigration reform as he faces the likelihood of a primary challenge from the right.

It's no coincidence, then, that Flake is appearing alongside McCain and nearly all of the state's Republican Congressional delegation today at an event in Tucson, Arizona designed to propose solutions on how to best seal the border.

But perhaps most noteworthy is the fact that Rep. Trent Franks (R) who is considering challenging Flake in the Republican Senate primary, is the only Arizona Republican congressman who won't attend.

A McCain spokesperson said that Franks was invited, but turned down the opportunity to join his congressional colleagues for the border security event.

Former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) turned down the Democratic National Committee for clean energy.

Well not exactly, but Granholm told National Journal Wednesday that she decided not to run for DNC chair and instead took a position as a senior adviser with the Pew Charitable Trusts' environment group.

"Because I want to go around the country and talk about clean energy in a bipartisan way," Granholm said with a laugh when asked why she didn't want to run for the position.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein's (D-Calif.) re-elect rating is lower than it has been at this point in past election cycles, according to a new Field Poll, as her approval continues to hover just below 50 percent.

46 percent of California voters surveyed said they would be inclined to vote for Feinstein in 2012, while 42 percent said they would not be inclined to do so. During the year before her previous reelection campaigns, Feinstein's reelect percentage has consistently been over 50 percent in the Field Poll: 53 percent of registered voters were inclined to reelect her in a poll released in March of 2005, while that figure was 59 percent in March of 1999. In a June 1993 poll, the figure was 58 percent.

Still, there are encouraging signs for Feinstein.

48 percent of California voters approve of the job Feinstein is doing, while just 33 percent disapprove, according to the survey. That figure is higher than Sen. Barbara Boxer's (D-Calif.) October 2009 44 percent approval rating.

It's encouraging news for Feinstein; Boxer, despite attracting a well-known and well-financed GOP opponent in Carly Fiorina, still won by ten percent. The 2012 presidential election should also boost Feinstein's chances in the heavily Democratic state of California.

The poll of 444 registered voters in California was conducted February 28-March 14, 2011. The margin of error of the survey is +/- 4.8 percent.

In politics, actions speak louder than words - and Rep. Jeff Flake's (R-Ariz.) sudden evolution from immigration centrist to a border security hardliner speaks volumes, as he begins his Arizona Senate campaign.

The Arizona Republic reported Wednesday that Flake will be issuing a policy statement stating, "In the past I have supported a broad approach to immigration reform -- increased border security coupled with a temporary worker program. I no longer do."

Flake is just the latest Senate candidate in the state to pivot away from moderate views on border security and immigration. Just last year, Sen. John McCain (R), who once also championed a comprehensive approach, presented a revamped tougher-on-immigration version of himself en route to a victory.

Just last month, Flake, who has worked on a comprehensive approach with liberal Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) defended his record on immigration, including a guest worker proposal, in an interview with Hotline On Call.

"I've always felt that we could help secure the border faster if we have -- in addition to border security -- a legal framework for people to come here legally to work and then to return home," he said. Now, Flake will advocate for border security to be addressed before other reforms are discussed.

The turnaround is as swift as it is predictable. Flake is likely to face a primary challenge from Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), who appears to be leaning toward a bid. Franks, a reliable immigration hardliner, would provide a contrast to Flake's focus on fiscal conservatism.

Flake's early move on immigration looks very much like the direction McCain went, but can he repeat the overall McCain 2010 model in 2012? Here's a look at how Flake, like McCain, can overcome his political vulnerability on immigration:

The Iowa Republican Party will join with ABC News to co-sponsor a live presidential debate from Des Moines the weekend of December 10, state party chairman Matt Strawn announced Thursday.

Strawn said this debate will be the third, and final, presidential debate co-sponsored by the Iowa GOP.

The debate will be moderated by Diane Sawyer and George Stephanopoulos and will be broadcast live on ABC both in the state and nationally.

The Iowa Republican Party and Fox News have already committed to holding debates on August 11, in Ames -- two days before the Iowa Republican straw poll in Ames -- and in Sioux City the week before the 2012 caucuses, which are currently slated for Feb. 6, 2012.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. National Journal Hotline's latest Presidential Power Rankings are out, President Obama has some work to do with independents in Ohio, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is raking in the big bucks. And fear not, whoopie pies are back in the headlines! Here's today's rundown:

8) Oh it's on: a Maine radio station is teaming up with a whoopie pie maker to create a 500-plus-pound version of the cake in the hopes of outdoing Pennsylvania's 250-pound version. Meanwhile, the Maine House approved a compromise that would declare the whoopie pie the state "treat," making the blueberry pie the state's official "dessert." Here's a lesson for you Democrats and Republicans: If the world can find a seat at the table for pies of both the blueberry and whoopie variation, you too can achieve compromise.

7) Battles over organized labor and collective bargaining have been taking place in various states over the past few weeks, but here's something new: Labor leaders in Maine and the state's largest Latino group were outraged after Gov. Paul LePage's (R) decision to remove a mural depicting workers from the Labor Department's headquarters.

LePage's spokesperson released an anonymous fax from someone saying this mural "is nothing but propaganda to further the agenda of the union movement. I felt for a moment that I was in communist North Korea where they use these murals to brainwash the masses."

6) Howard Dean's Democracy for America endorsed California Secretary of State Debra Bowen in the state's 36th District special election. Bowen is facing off against Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn -- who is backed by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, among others -- and progressive activist Marcy Winograd, who is making her third try for the seat.

5) Nevada Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (R), in Washington for a meeting of lieutenant governors told Hotline On Call Wednesday that he plans to make a decision on running for Rep. Dean Heller's (R-Nev.) House seat "hopefully within the next few weeks." But Krolicki didn't want to weigh in on Republican Sharron Angle, who is already in the race, simply saying, "regardless of who decides to get in the race, my decision is self-contained. I believe I'd be a very competitive candidate."

One year after President Obama signed his signature health care reform measure into law, two polls yield different findings about the way Americans view the law, but in each poll, Americans' opinions of the law have not changed very much over the last 12 months.

When asked as part of a CNN/Opinion Research poll if they "generally favor" or "generally oppose" the law, 59 percent of Americans said they oppose the health care law, while just 37 percent said they favor it.

CNN/ORC polls conducted in December and August of 2010 found public opinion to be very similar, with 54 percent opposing it in December while just 43 percent approved. In early August, 56 percent opposed the law while 40 percent favored it. In March 2010, as the bill was in its final stages in Congress, 59 percent opposed it and only 39 percent favored it.

The divide between Americans who oppose the measure because it is too liberal and those who are against it because it is not liberal enough has also held steady: 43 percent oppose it because it is too liberal in the latest poll, while 13 percent oppose it because it is not liberal enough -- a split largely consistent with the polls taken in December, August and March.

Slate's Dave Weigel makes a notable point: the latest numbers indicate that 50 percent of Americans either favor the law or don't think it's liberal enough -- an encouraging figure for Democrats to keep in mind as they seek to defend the law in advance of the 2012 election.

Tucked inside a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the percentage of Ohio voters who disapprove of Republican Gov. John Kasich rising was an interesting test of rhetoric and messaging around the ongoing debate over public-employee unions in cash-strapped states.

As in Wisconsin, Ohio Republicans have sought to restrict collective bargaining among public employees -- an attempt, Republicans say, to close a significant budget shortfall.

Quinnipiac smartly uses a split sample to test Ohio voters' opinions on the issue, asking roughly half of voters if they support or oppose "limiting collective bargaining for public employees." The other half of the sample is asked if they support or oppose "limiting collective bargaining rights for public employees."

Republican pollster Adam Geller suggested last month that the use of the word "rights" in national polling was making respondents more likely to oppose limits on collective bargaining.

The Quinnipiac poll finds voters are slightly more likely to support limiting collective bargaining when the word "rights" is omitted. When asked about collective bargaining rights, 35% of voters support limiting those rights, while 54% are in opposition. But, asked only about "collective bargaining," the spread is closer: 41% support, 48% oppose.

"Whether collective bargaining is a right or not is in the eye of the beholder, but the word 'right' appears to have an effect on the voters' response," said Quinnipiac University Polling Institute assistant director Peter Brown. "But no matter how the question is asked, voters oppose limits on collective bargaining."

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted March 15-21; 1,384 registered voters were surveyed, for a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent. Margins of error are larger for split samples.

The Census Bureau released data for three more states Tuesday: Michigan, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire.

-- Michigan is the only state in America to have lost population in the last decade. Detroit's population is now the smallest it has been since the creation of the auto industry nearly a century ago, and the city lost more residents in the last decade than hurricane-ravaged New Orleans. There are almost a quarter-million fewer residents today than a decade ago.

The last decade saw the largest percentage drop ever for Detroit's population, the culmination of a long decline that turned into a collapse in the last decade, as the auto industry teetered on the edge of extinction, crime rates soared, and the city's mayor, Kwame Kilpatrick (D), ended up serving jail time.

Detroit's decline reverberated across Michigan: Eight of the state's 10 largest cities and towns lost population in the last decade. None saw growth greater than five percent.
A shrinking population means less clout in Congress. Michigan will lose a House seat for the fourth straight decade. The state had 19 representatives in 1970; in the next Congress, it will have 14.

Republicans drew a successful gerrymander last decade, and it has held up, giving the GOP a 9-6 advantage in the state's congressional delegation. This year, Republicans again control the redistricting process, and will likely try to eliminate the one district that flipped Democratic and remained under control of the party in the last decade, pairing the current occupant, Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) with veteran Rep. Sander Levin (D-Mich.), his party's top-ranking member on the House Ways and Means Committee.

Prospective Republican presidential candidates are walking a fine line in reacting to President Obama's handling of military intervention in Libya, with most supporting the mission but criticizing Obama for his handling of the crisis. And a recent poll reflects Americans' own ambivalence about the country's latest war.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll showed that 70% of Americans favor the no-fly zone - up 14 points in the last week. And overall, 50 percent approve how Obama's handled the situation. (Roughly half those surveyed were interviewed before the bombings began.)

But among Republicans, the split between the two responses is stark: 77 of GOPers favor a no-fly zone (the highest among partisan responses), but only 27 percent approve of Obama's handling of the situation.

That's created a challenge for Republicans to criticize the president, since the base is supportive of the mission, but highly critical of the president's tactics.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) made some notable personnel moves in the Granite State, Republicans may be close to getting a top recruit in Ohio, while Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) makes a dramatic shift in his immigration views. Here's today's rundown:

7) Who needs email? Not Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), who says he does not use it. "It's easier if I never get e-mailed. I get embarrassed by it that way. It's not as easy to communicate," he says.

6) Former Senate nominee and current Congressional candidate Sharron Angle (R) is self-publishing a book titled "Right Angle" and eying an April release for the text.

5) Republican businessman Randy Altschuler is eying a rematch against Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.). Altschuler lost one of the closest races in the country to Bishop last year, a race that was not officially decided until December.

4) Dismal numbers for Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R): A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that 46 percent of Ohio voters disapprove of the way Kasich is handling his job, while just 30 percent approve. A separate Ohio poll conducted earlier his month also found a plurality of Ohioans disapprove of the job Kasich is doing.

The old saying goes, "keep your friends close but your enemies closer." Apparently Rep. Patrick Meehan (R-Pa.) took that to heart.

The Pennsylvania political website PoliticsPA.com reported that Meehan's former spokesman Jack Stollsteimer is seriously considering running against his old boss next year - as a Democrat. Stollsteimer goes back many years with the congressman, serving as Meehan's flak when he was U.S. attorney and also when he was a local district attorney.

His loyalty apparently ended when Meehan entered Congress. The potential challenger told the publication that in this case, partisanship trumps friendship.

"Pat and I have been friends and I know he's a good man, but I have serious problems with what he's already done as our Congressman," he said. "He's a company man. He's voted purely along Republican leadership lines. I think we need an independent thinker in Washington."

What began earlier this month as a small story about tax dollars being spent to pay for Sen. Claire McCaskill's (D-Mo.) charter flights has dragged on, evolving into a narrative that could do lasting damage to both McCaskill and Senate Democrats in 2012.

On Monday, McCaskill revealed she owed over $287,000 in back property taxes on the aircraft that has caused her much consternation in recent weeks. Her admission was just the latest development in a story the Show Me State's senior senator can't seem to shake. While it's very early in the cycle, here is a look at why both McCaskill and Democrats should be worried:

1) It cuts against the grain of her good-government image: McCaskill has cultivated a reputation as a figure devoted to standing against corruption. After all, she was the state auditor before she became senator; and has developed a populist brand attacking the excesses of the wealthy. When you embrace the image of being a no-nonsense reformer, this kind of story has even more sticking power.

2) Her ineffectual apology: While it certainly would have been far worse for McCaskill if the news of her back taxes had leaked out, her public acknowledgment will still likely fall short of the mark in the minds of many voters. The personal audit she conducted only came after news that taxpayer dollars had been spent on her travel. Her announcement, apology and willingness to pay the money she owed without hesitation may win her some good will with supporters, but "I have convinced my husband to sell the damn plane" doesn't sound like an overwhelmingly convincing line for the undecided voters McCaskill will so desperately need in 2012.

The economic climate won't help. With unemployment dominating the headlines and the economy still atop the minds of many voters, the image of McCaskill as a jet-setting, tax-avoider will easily stick in peoples' minds, fair or unfair. The story got front-page treatment in the state's two biggest papers, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the Kansas City Star.

There are many ways to gauge whether Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) is running for president: you can track his movement in the early states, look at his personnel moves or listen to his speeches.

But there may yet be a more accurate way to predict his future.

Barbour, looking noticeably slimmer, recently told the New York Times' Jeff Zeleny, "I lost 20 pounds, and it made my back hurt" and "I have to lose about 20 more -- by the end of April." Others have also recently noticed the governor's weight loss.

"If you see I lose 40 pounds, you'll know I'm either running or got cancer," Barbour told reporters a little over a year ago.

As May grows near, keep an eye on the calendar -- and on Barbour's waistline.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. In today's rundown: Dick Cheney is coming to a small screen near you, the NRSC lands a body blow against McCaskill and why Republicans are looking closely at a mayor's race in Tampa.

8) HBO has optioned "Angler: The Cheney Vice Presidency" for a miniseries. No word yet on who will be playing Cheney, though we'd nominate Richard Dreyfuss.

7) After narrowly losing to Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) in 2010, former state Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) said she is going to run for Indiana's 2nd District seat again in 2012. The district is likely to become much more Republican after redistricting -- a factor not lost on Donnelly, who admits that is on his mind as he weighs a possible Senate or gubernatorial run.

6) Defense analysts say the ongoing military operations in Libya could wipe out a significant chunk of the budget cuts passed in recent weeks.

5) Today, voters go to the polls to select mayors in Jacksonville, Kansas City and Tampa.

The Tampa race is of particular importance to Republicans. Rose Ferlita, the party's preferred candidate, finished in first place in the March 1 balloting and would be the first mayor in Tampa aligned with the GOP in decades. With the 2012 Republican convention in Tampa, winning the mayor's race is at least of symbolic importance - and would also give the GOP a key ally in a battleground region of a battleground state.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee on Monday, faces some significant hurdles in winning the GOP nomination. National Journal Hotline Editor-in-Chief Reid Wilson talks about how Pawlenty can address his shortcomings -- and how he's already tackling one.

Video by Theresa Poulson with photos by Getty Images

If Newton, Massachusetts Mayor Setti Warren (D) makes it to the Senate someday, things might be slightly awkward between him and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.).

Warren is currently mulling a 2012 bid for Sen. Scott Brown's (R) seat. Appearing over the weekend on WCVB-TV's "On the Record," Warren had to answer the question "Which former mayor of San Francisco was assassinated with gay rights activist Harvey Milk?"

"Dianne Feinstein," Warren answered. Co-host Ed Harding, laughing, informed Warren that the correct answer was George Moscone. Warren, apologizing, quickly said Feinstein became mayor after the assassination attempt, and Harding interjected that she then became a senator.

As the Boston Globe's Glen Johnson points out, Feinstein has served with Warren's former boss, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) -- Warren worked as Kerry's deputy state director.

Johnson also reports that the Massachusetts Republican Party called Warren "not ready for primetime" after the interview aired. Warren is reportedly still determining whether to challenge Brown, though he has moved toward staffing up for a potential campaign.

Already under attack from Republicans for using taxpayer dollars to pay for travel on the plane she and her husband partially own, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) revealed Monday afternoon she had not paid over $287,000 in personal property taxes on the aircraft.

"I have convinced my husband to sell the damn plane," said McCaskill on a conference call with reporters. "He has hired a broker and I can tell you I will not be setting foot on the plane ever again."

McCaskill said she had just discovered that the personal property taxes on the plane had not been paid from 2007-2010, and that she was going to send the checks to St. Louis County today. "I have learned that Missouri is one of a minority of states that require personal property taxes to be paid on airplanes that are hangered in the state, and that those taxes are due to the county," she said.

"There are people I could blame for this but I know better," McCaskill added. "I take full responsibility for the mistake."

Following the call, the National Republican Senatorial Committee sent out a video highlighting McCaskill saying "If my walk doesn't match my talk, shame on me and don't ever vote for me again."

And this morning, the Missouri Republican Party ran a full-page ad in the Springfield News-Leader, calling on McCaskill to release tax records related to her partial ownership of the airplane.

Both of McCaskill's declared opponents, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) and former congressional candidate Ed Martin (R), have capitalized on the plane controversy, with Martin creating a website, airclaire.com, to raise money and hit McCaskill over the incident.

Sean Sullivan contributed to this post.

Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.), one of Democrats' top Congressional targets in 2012, now has a politically-experienced challenger running against him.

West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel (D) announced Monday she will challenge West in a race that will highly watched next year, both because of the competitive nature of his district and the congressman's penchant for provocative statements.

Frankel, who was elected mayor in 2003 after serving 14 years in the state legislature, is term-limited in her current post and will leave office next week - giving her plenty of time to prepare for a race. She ran for the House in 1992, but lost in a primary runoff to Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.)

When Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) visited the district last month, he didn't meet with Frankel, but said she was someone he had a "strong interest" in talking to her and that she "would be an outstanding member of Congress."

"Congress isn't working for working families. There's too much partisanship and not enough results. We need a Member of Congress who knows how to get things done," Frankel said in a statement announcing her candidacy.

She took a not-too-subtle jab at West in her statement, referring to his popularity with Tea Party organizers and referencing the rousing reception he received at this year's CPAC conference.

I'm not "running for Congress to win favor with the Washington extremists and I am not motivated the same tired partisan fights," Frankel said. "I know this campaign will be hard fought, but I am not afraid of a fight. And I will not be outworked," said Frankel.

Former Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) didn't sound at all like someone seriously itching to get back into electoral politics late last week. But in North Dakota, there may be no need to rush.

"I am not excluding anything nor am I focusing on politics right now," Pomeroy told the Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. "North Dakota's first in my thoughts and loyalties but I'm focusing on getting my new career established." Pomeroy joined law and lobbying firm Alston & Bird In January. The state Democratic Party chair had recently floated Pomeroy's name as a possible gubernatorial candidate.

Very little is settled in the Senate and gubernatorial races, and it could be beneficial for Pomeroy to wait and see how things shape up, if he has any interest in running for office again. If Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) decides not to run for reelection, Lt. Gov. Drew Wrigley (R) could make a bid.

In the Senate race, some Republicans continue to have freshman Rep. Rick Berg (R) on the top of their wish list. He's just starting out in Washington and hasn't given any indication he wants to be in the Senate now, but if he does end up running, his House seat could attract some of the names mulling the other statewide races.

Pomeroy is not far removed from his 2010 loss to Berg that is still fresh in the minds of voters. And working for a law and lobbying firm isn't exactly an ideal resume line for him (even though he can't lobby Congress for a full year since the time he left the House). But given the lack of an overwhelming Democratic bench in the state and the current fluid nature of politics in North Dakota, it would not be entirely surprising to see Pomeroy's name in the mix some time down the road.

Updated 3:35 p.m.

Promising "we the people of the United States will take back our government," former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) took the first step toward officially launching a presidential campaign Monday afternoon, announcing the formation of an exploratory committee in a video posted on his Facebook page.

"This is our country. Our founding fathers created it, Americans embraced it, Ronald Reagan personified it and Lincoln stood courageously to protect it. And that's why today, I'm announcing the formation of an exploratory committee to run for President of the United States," Pawlenty declares in the two-minute video.

The former governor of Minnesota draws on his upbringing in the video, saying "at a young age, I saw up close the face of challenge, the face of hardship and the face of job loss. Over the last year, I've traveled to nearly every state in the country and I know many Americans are feeling that way today. I know that feeling -- I lived it," he continues.

Pawlenty has been steadily moving toward a presidential bid over the last few months, visiting key early states and attracting supporters. His campaign is likely to be based in the Twin Cities, sources said.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee narrowly outraised the National Republican Senatorial Committee during the month of February, according to fundraising figures released by each committee on Monday.

The DSCC brought in over $3.43 million during February while the NRSC took in $3.34 million. The DSCC ended the month with $5.1 million cash on hand, but still carried $8.6 million in debt.

The NRSC finished the month with just over $868,000 in its campaign account. The committee continued to chip away at its own debt during the month, and that figure stands at $5.3 million, which is down from $6.5 million a month ago.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) is headed to Nevada on Tuesday, a sign that a state that went largely uncontested in the 2008 GOP primary is already shaping up to be more competitive in 2012.

Barbour's visit suggests the Silver State, which is scheduled to conduct caucuses early next year, is in play. Four years ago, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) went virtually unchallenged in Nevada. But modified delegate rules for the Nevada caucus and the emergence of Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (R) as a potential candidate mean that's not going to happen again.

This year, Nevada Republicans will award delegates on a proportional basis rather than winner-take-all. The rule change will help increase competition among Republican candidates who otherwise might have ceded the state to Romney, who overwhelmingly won the 2008 caucus. That year, Romney won more than 50 percent of the vote while his competitors focused on the South Carolina primary.

But while the new rules were meant to raise Nevada's political profile by attracting more candidates to the state, few of the prospective contenders have paid Nevada much attention. But Huntsman's entry into the invisible primary raises the specter that two Mormon contenders could split that constituency, which plays a big role in Nevada Republican politics.

This year, candidates are starting to pay attention in Nevada. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) delivered a high profile speech to the Safari Club International in Reno on January 30. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) visited three weeks later, holding court with influential GOP activists and lawmakers. And twice in the last month, businessman Herman Cain (R) has given speeches to influential GOP groups in Nevada.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Democratic Sen. Jon Tester finds himself in a dead heat with GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg in Montana, Manchin sides with conservatives on the debt ceiling, and Barbour goes behind enemy lines to land himself a new top strategist. Here's today's rundown:

7) Losing sleep over redistricting? Well, some hobbyists literally are, as computer programs allowing users to draw House district lines are picking up steam. We can see some great new game titles on the horizon. How about "Gerrymander 2: Masters Of The Census"? Or maybe "Congressional Boundaries 3: The Final Draw"? Eat your heart out "Call Of Duty."

One person who's not so amused: Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pa.), who told the Wall Street Journal: "Some guy from California drew a map. In Pittsburgh, there are two words for that: Who cares?" Ouch.

6) House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's office said Saturday that Pelosi and four other Members arrived in Afghanistan on a previously unannounced visit.

5) California Republicans have voted to conduct a mail-in nominating process for all registered GOPers, to counteract the impact of an all-party primary ballot that state voters backed in a referendum last November. Candidates backed by the state Republican party will be listed as the official GOP favorite on mailers and receive access to party resources.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) made some news by raising questions about the long-term wisdom of an American military presence in Afghanistan and suggesting there was room to cut spending at the Pentagon. Many conservatives and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) reacted quickly, suggesting the beginning of an unlikely first policy fight in the primary. What's more, with the debate over the health care measure signed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) yet to fully begin in earnest, the GOP primary may be on a trajectory toward sharp policy debates the likes of which we never saw in 2008.

Meanwhile, the hits keep on coming for Barbour, and the latest revelation could ultimately prove to be the most damaging: a Texas businessman whose multi-million dollar liquefied natural gas facility was endorsed by Barbour paid the governor back several months ago by donating $100,000 to his Georgia-based Leadership Committee PAC. For a guy who's often praised as the best "tactician" in the GOP presidential field, Barbour has shown an astonishing inability to avoid damaging headlines during the past three months.

An event in another nation has set off a domestic debate over energy and disaster preparedness. Republicans Donald Trump and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich staked out pro-nuclear power positions while Democrats like Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) are increasingly critical of nuclear power. With rising gas prices and now the debate over the safety of nuclear plants, President Obama has a precarious route to maneuver on energy.

With all the attention being paid to the collective bargaining saga in Wisconsin, a similar situation in Indiana seems to have gone largely overlooked. In order to prevent passage of a "right to work" bill and other GOP-backed measures, Indiana House Democrats fled to Illinois on Feb. 22 and have yet to return.

Whereas in Wisconsin, Republicans in the state Senate could pass non-fiscal bills without missing Democrats, Indiana House Republicans cannot move on any legislation until the Democrats return, leaving the Indiana legislative process at a standstill. Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has vowed not to make a decision on a presidential bid until the conclusion of this legislative session. With no end in sight to the standoff in the state legislature, Daniels backers could be waiting even longer than originally expected.

Democratic leaders in New York's 26th District have unanimously picked Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul as their nominee in the special election to succeed former Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y.).

County chairs voted on Saturday to select Hochul after interviewing seven potential nominees a final time. Both Empire State and national Democrats believed Hochul was their best choice to make the May 26th election competitive in the Republican-leaning Western New York District.

"I am running for Congress because I can do in Washington what I've done in Erie County - cut waste, hold down taxes, and help Western New York businesses create jobs for working families," Hochul said upon accepting the nomination. "I am looking forward to meeting residents throughout the district, and sharing my plan to get people back to work and get our economy back on track."

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) told Hotline On Call this week he had spoken with Hochul and called her an "outstanding" candidate but that he has yet to make the assessment to commit resources to the contest, saying he wants to see how the "field solidifies." The DCCC also sent their Northeast political director to the district shortly after Lee's resignation following reports he had replied to a personal ad on Craigslist with a shirtless muscle photo.

The Republican National Committee carried a debt of $21 million dollars at the end of February according to a committee source, as the committee continued to find new debt, adding another $1 million in unpaid bills to an already-massive debt load.

The committee raised $5.2 million and spent $5.3 million - which includes the $1 million spent toward paying down the RNC's debt. The RNC also uncovered another $1 million in new debt during the month.

New chairman Reince Priebus has significantly cut party staff in an effort to save resources. The RNC's communications and research shops, for example, are shadows of their former size, while other departments have also been asked to make cuts to save money.

The Washington Post reported that the Democratic National Committee raised $7.1 million and spent $5.7 million -- which included $1 million in loan repayment -- in February and ended the month with $17.9 million in debt and $10.5 million in the bank.

This Sunday, Energy Secretary Steven Chu will hit all five morning programs to discuss what the nuclear crisis in Japan means for the U.S., how it will affect the future of nuclear energy in this country and what the Obama administration is doing to monitor the situation.

"Meet the Press" features Sens. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) in a discussion about Libya and the safety of U.S. nuclear plants. "Face the Nation" will discuss the nuclear crisis in Japan with Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.). ABC's "This Week" will follow suit and discuss how prepared the U.S. is for a Japan-like situation with former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) and former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff.

"FOX News Sunday" will talk with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) about how Congress plans to slash more money from the federal budget. Host Chris Wallace will then turn to Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Jack Reed (D-R.I.) to discuss the UN's decision to allow for military force to be used to implement a no-fly zone over Libya.

CNN's "State of the Union" will take a look at the U.S. emergency preparedness and the unrest in Middle East with Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).

FOX News will also air two specials on Saturday focusing on the devastation in Japan. Shepard Smith anchors a one-hour special, "FOX News Reporting: The Disaster in Japan," taking an in-depth look at the first ten days since the earthquake, tsunami and ongoing nuclear threat in Japan. The program airs at 3pm ET and again Sunday at 3/9pm ET. Then, Neil Cavuto will host the live two-hour special "Coming Back from the Brink," reporting on the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami. That airs Saturday at 10am ET.

Get the full listings after the jump.

Two former aides to former Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) are seriously considering running for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Kent Conrad (D), and the head of the state's Democratic Party believes they will both take the next step toward entering the race in the near future.

Pam Gulleson, who has served as state director and chief of staff to Dorgan and a state rep., is giving the race a close look.

"I'm certainly giving it full consideration. I'm visiting with party leaders," said Gulleson. "I think it would be premature to say that I was getting ready to form an exploratory committee at this moment, but I am certainly doing a lot of discussion and looking at it."

"Internally, I'd like to make this decision by early summer. I'm thinking June, July," she said.

Another former Dorgan aide, Kristin Hedger, is also considering a run.

"I do have a great interest in public service and the United States Senate in particular," said Hedger, who worked for Dorgan on the Democratic Policy Committee and ran for Secretary of State in 2006, but lost in the general election. She now works in the manufacturing industry.

"I haven't set a firm, fixed time-line," Hedger said.

But North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party Chairman Mark Schneider said he expects announcements from the two in "weeks rather than months."

"I expect it will be something like they are forming exploratory committees," he said.

From now on, don't expect to see Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) saying anything nice about the health care law Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) signed as governor. Sources in his inner circle responded quickly on Thursday to comments that were seen as a defense of Romney's plan with a message of their own: If Romney wants DeMint's support, he better admit it was a mistake.

Hours after DeMint's comments were printed in The Hill -- and written about on this blog - a a stern warning from a source close to the senator appeared a subsequent story in The Hill: DeMint would not consider backing Romney in the upcoming election unless "he admits that his Massachusetts health care plan was a colossal mistake." DeMint backed Romney in 2008 but has not said who he is supporting in 2012.

The fact that sources close to DeMint were so adamant in their pushback illustrates how sensitive the subject of Romney's Massachusetts health care plan is. If a prominent conservative can't make a matter-of-fact comment that state Democrats played a role in the law without pushback, how much tougher will it be for Romney himself to make the case for his signature accomplishment?

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has outraised the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee for a second straight month, posting their best February haul ever, but still holding on to $17.3 million in debt.

The DCCC announced Friday they raised $5.2 million in February, bringing in $800,000 more than they did in January and edging out the NRCC's $4.9 million February total. Their latest cash influx gives them $5.9 million cash on hand -- $1.6 million more than the $4.3 million the NRCC has in the bank.

"The NRCC and the Republican majority are off to a rocky start under Chairman Pete Sessions and Speaker John Boehner," said DCCC deputy executive director Jennifer Crider.

The DCCC still has a substantial $17.3 million in debt after last year's elections, but they paid down $1.3 million of that in the past month. The NRCC still has $9.5 million in debt after paying down $1 million in February.

In January, the DCCC outraised the NRCC by $1.4 million, raising $4.4 million to their Republican counterpart's $3 million.

Fully half of registered voters say they would definitely or probably vote for a candidate other than President Obama if the presidential election were held today, according to a new Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll.

50 percent of registered voters surveyed said they would definitely or probably vote for someone else, while just 40 percent said they would definitely or probably vote for the president.

Just 22 percent of registered voters said they would definitely vote for Obama, while 18 percent said they would probably vote for him. 35 percent would definitely vote for someone else while another 16 percent would probably vote for someone else.

Obama's re-elect numbers look, at face value, like troubling signs for the White House. But polls conducted so far ahead of a presidential election are subject to serious flux, and Obama's approval ratings show underlying signs of improvement.

Obama's approval rating among adults stands at 49 percent in the poll while 44 percent disapprove -- largely unmoved from the 48 percent who approved and 46 percent who disapproved in the poll taken from November 29-December 1 2010. The president has not crested the 50 percent mark in any Heartland Monitor poll since September 2009.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Morehead State remains alive in the NCAA Tournament, one current governor's son dissuades his dad from running for president, while one former governor takes herself out of the running for the DNC chairmanship. Here's today's rundown:

9) Last year's Alaska Senate nominee Joe Miller (R) said he doesn't expect to run against Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) in 2012 but hasn't completely ruled out the possibility either.

8) The Senate passed a three-week continuing resolution that will fund the government until April 8 by an 87-13 margin. Eight of the nine senators who voted against the previous two-week CR, in addition to Sens. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va), James Inhofe (R-Okla.) and John Ensign (R-Nev.) - who each voted yes last time -- voted no. The one senator who voted no last time, but yes this time? Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa).

7) For the first time in nearly a decade of ABC News/Washington Post polls, more than half of Americans say it should be legal for gays and lesbians to marry.

6) A new Allstate-National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll suggests that "some voters may be giving Obama a second look as he has repositioned himself with a series of high-profile bipartisan legislative agreements."

5) Vice President Biden and Labor Secretary Hilda Solis headlined a tele-town hall with union members Thursday night - with Solis going so far to accuse Republican governors of trying to "break unions." It's much sharper rhetoric than we heard in public from the White House: They're trying to mobilize the labor base privately, while the president is keeping his distance from the issue publicly.

Jimmy Kimmel is convinced that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States.

Jimmy Fallon, on Pres. Obama being criticized for going on ESPN to to pick his NCAA brackets when there are more important issues on his agenda: "When he heard this Obama was like ... 'Was today my fantasy baseball draft?'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:30 when Bill Clinton gets some bad news.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $4.9 million during February, Hotline On Call has learned.

The GOP campaign committee's most recent monthly haul is a substantial uptick of $1.9 million from their January fundraising, when they were outraised by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by $1.4 million.

The new cash influx leaves the NRCC with $4.3 million cash on hand -- an increase of $1.1 million since January. The committee still has $9.5 million in debt, but they've paid off $1 million of their debt in the past month. The NRCC's February total is more than double what they had at this time in the 2010 cycle, ending February 2009 with $2 million cash on hand, and it's larger than any DCCC February monthly fundraising report yet recorded.

"Expanding on our aggressive fundraising strategies last cycle, I believe that the NRCC's February fundraising numbers show us well-positioned to build on our success," NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions said in a statement. "These financial gains will keep the NRCC playing offense against Democrats' voter-rejected goal of making Nancy Pelosi the Speaker again."

All monthly reports are due by Sunday to the FEC. The DCCC has not yet filed or released its fundraising numbers, but raised $4.4 million last month and had $3.4 million in the bank. After decimating losses last November, the campaign committee was still saddled with $18.6 million in debt at the end of January and used most of their first month's cash influx to build up their bank account rather than pay down that debt.

When former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert (R) resigned his post and entered the Texas Senate race last month, some political handicappers classified him as a centrist alternative in a GOP field already populated by some conservative candidates, like Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R) and former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R).

But Leppert's actions and rhetoric since launching his Senate bid have told a different story.

On his Twitter account, Leppert bills himself as a "true Texas conservative." He urges visitors to his campaign website to sign his petition calling for Congress to pass a balanced budget amendment. And earlier this week, Leppert re-tweeted comments from South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint (R) opposing the temporary extension of the budget continuing resolution.

Since the start of his campaign, Leppert has also has also taken unequivocally conservative stances on social issues. As mayor, he participated in gay pride parades and employed an openly gay chief of staff. But on his campaign website, Leppert opposes gay marriage and civil unions. He also supports the death penalty and opposes abortion rights.

Leppert insists that he has not pivoted to the right in preparation for his statewide run. Observers simply mischaracterized his beliefs in the past, he said.

"My positions that you've seen that would put me clearly on the conservative side, they've never changed," Leppert told Hotline On Call. "I was somebody that got some things done and somebody that could bring people together. Sometimes that got labeled a certain way."

A lawyer, a sheriff, and a plumber walk into a room...

No, it's not the beginning of a joke. 2010 Alaska Senate nominee Joe Miller (R) has entered an agreement to have Twenty-First Century Speakers represent him in securing speaking engagements, according to a statement he sent out Wednesday.

Miller will be speaking at "A Night with the Joe's," a March 24 event in Montaro, California with two other "Joes": Maricopa County Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Samuel "Joe The Plumber" Wurzelbacher. "The Campaign to Defeat Barack Obama" is sponsoring the event, according to Miller's statement. 2010 Nevada Senate nominee Sharon Angle (R), who this week announced she is running for Congress, will also reportedly appear at the event.

Showing he hasn't entirely moved on from his loss to Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) last year, Miller also announced he will also be attending the "True the Vote" National Summit taking place in Houston on March 25 and 26.

"As I said following our elections in Alaska, 'The integrity of the vote is vital,'" said Miller in the statement. "People must have confidence the election results reflect the true and accurate will of the voters. I applaud the True the Vote Summit's goal of identifying areas of potential voter fraud and training poll watchers for precincts throughout the United States to guard against it."

Miller has been relatively quiet since finally conceding to Murkowski, though he did attack Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) at the end of January, stoking speculation that he could launch another statewide effort for the state's sole House of Representatives seat.

The Census Bureau released data for four more states Wednesday afternoon: Minnesota, Tennessee, North Dakota, and Alaska.

-- Minnesota grew by almost 8 percent in the last decade and narrowly avoided losing a congressional seat. The state's growth came in the Twin Cities' suburbs, while Minneapolis and St. Paul stagnated and the northern Iron Range continued to lose population.

The state, long one of the whitest of the Great Lakes states, saw some increased diversity as the Hispanic population grew by three quarters and the black population grew by 60 percent as African immigrants moved to Minneapolis. Still, the state is predominantly white: 83 percent of its residents are non-Hispanic white.

The state has long been competitive: Democrats tend to win at the presidential level but Gov. Mark Dayton is the first Democrat to be governor in two decades after his narrow win in 2010. The state's fastest growth has been in its Republican-leaning areas' suburbs, which may make it more competitive for Republicans in the future, but the state's demographic shift has been minor.

Control of redistricting is split between the parties, as it has been in the past five decades, and it's unlikely that there will be major shifts in the congressional map, which currently is split 4-4 between the two parties. The two Twin Cities districts need to gain substantial population and so will take on Democratic-leaning inner suburbs, making the surrounding Republican districts more conservative, which would help Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen face any competition in future years.

As observers in the Aloha State await announcements from several high profile politicians believed to be mulling a bid for the seat being vacated by Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii), one potential candidate is already taking the next step toward exploring a run.

State Senate Vice President Donna Mercado Kim (D) is planning to form an exploratory committee in the hopes of financing a poll, as first reported by the Honolulu Star-Advertiser earlier this week.

"I've had my eye on the Senate seat," Kim told Hotline On Call on Wednesday. "I felt that should Sen. Akaka step down, that I would be interested in pursuing that. So I've been thinking about it for a year or two."

The Star-Advertiser reports Kim "is known for her investigations of state departments and agencies."

She said she participated in a program that allowed her to shadow Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) a couple of years ago, which, in part sparked her interest in going to Washington.

Kim told Hotline On Call she's friends with a some of the bigger name candidates who remain possibilities for the race including Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D), with whom she served in the state Senate, and former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D), who is the godfather of Kim's son and a high school friend.

While she is not a household name, Kim's interest in the race illustrates how a Democratic primary that already promises to be crowded could grow, in time, to become even more jam-packed.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has been receiving barbs from the right over his refusal to criticize the health care law he signed into law as governor.

But one prominent conservative is not so worried.

"It just depends on how he plays it. For me, I think he started with some good ideas that were essentially hijacked by the Democrat Legislature," Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) told The Hill.

DeMint, a Romney backer in 2008, isn't following the lead of many conservative critics, who have argued that health care could all-but-doom his chances of winning a presidential primary. And it's a sign that Romney's strongest defenders could come from Capitol Hill. After all, conservative Hill surrogates would have some standing to say Romney's health care plan differs from Obama's in many ways.

It also suggests that DeMint isn't seriously considering a presidential campaign of his own, given that health care would be a ready-made line of attack he could use against Romney, the early Republican frontrunner.

Democratic and Republican Members of Congress have sharply different views when it comes to how much influence labor unions should have on American life and politics, according to the results of this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Republican Members of Congress gave President Obama average marks for how he handled the Egyptian crisis, but they grade the president much more harshly for how he's managed events in Libya, according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort and happy St. Patrick's Day. President Obama's favorability rating is upside down in a new Pennsylvania poll, while Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) expresses her embarrassment and NYC voters weigh in on Bloomberg's comments about Irish people. Here's today's rundown:

8) State lawmakers in Maine are debating a bill to make whoopie pies the state treat, rather than the state dessert. Will someone please commission a poll on the treat/dessert divide, ASAP?

7) In a new Quinnipiac University poll, New York City voters are split along gender and racial lines over Mayor Michael Bloomberg's (I) comments about Irish people being inebriated and hanging out of windows, with 47 percent saying Irish Americans should be offended and 45 percent saying the Irish "should laugh it off as a joke among friends."

6) Obama met with the Democratic National Committee's finance board Wednesday, telling top 2008 contributors that while "there will be time for campaigning and there will be time for politics," he's going to need them when that moment arrives. Meanwhile, some Republicans believe talk of Obama possibly raising $1 billion is firing up the GOP donor base.

5) In a new Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania poll out this morning, Obama is viewed unfavorably by 44 percent of registered voters in the state, while just 41 percent view him favorably. More on the poll, with its cautionary news for the White House, here.

My column yesterday looked at how President Obama's path to re-election in 2012 will depend increasingly on states with upscale demographics (diverse states with white-collar workforce), and less on the blue-collar Rust Belt states that Democrats traditionally rely on.

A new Franklin and Marshall poll surveying Pennsylvania public opinion illustrates why the president's political team should be concerned about the latter group.

The poll shows nearly two-thirds of Pennsylvanians rating Obama's job performance as fair or poor, with only 35 percent rating it as excellent or good.

His overall favorability rating is also upside-down, with 44 percent viewing him unfavorably and 41 percent viewing him favorably.

The continued economic woes in the Rust Belt are contributing to the president's struggles. The percentage of respondents who said things will be worse off in the next year spiked 11 points since last August - from 15 percent to 26 percent.

Needless to say, it looks like Pennsylvania will be a true battleground in 2012 - much more challenging than last election when Obama coasted with 54 percent of the vote.

It's no coincidence then, as the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, that Obama's campaign manager Jim Messina has been telling donors that the president's support has dipped noticeably in Pennsylvania and Michigan - two states that have been comfortably in the Democratic column.

The poll, conducted between March 10-14, surveyed 420 registered voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 4.8 percent.

President Obama made his NCAA tournament picks but RNC chairman Reince Priebus thinks Obama should be focusing on the budget, not basketball.

Jimmy Fallon on a new study rating Washington DC as the most socially networked city in the country: "That explains why today the Senate said, 'All in favor say Like.'"

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

The House passed a continuing resolution to fund the government for three more weeks and cut $6 billion more from current spending on Tuesday and the Senate is expected to follow suit. The current CR expires after Friday.

We've compiled a whip count of senators who have committed to voting no, and we've reached out to the offices of the nine senators who voted no on the most recent two-week CR, to see where they stand. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said in a radio interview today he would vote against the current CR, as he did on the two-week measure.

Meanwhile, at least two senators who voted yes on the two-week CR have committed to voting yes on the new CR: Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) and Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.).

Stay tuned to Hotline On Call for the latest list. Did we miss anyone? Let us know, and we'll add them.

No on current three-week CR, yes on previous two-week CR:

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) (release)
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) (spokesperson confirmed)

No on current three-week CR, no on previous two-week CR:

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) (spokesperson confirmed)
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) (spokesperson confirmed)
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) (spokesperson confirmed)
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) (radio interview)

No on previous two-week CR, office unsure/undeclared/no response on current three-week CR:

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho)
Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa)
Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.)
Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.)
Sen. James Risch (R-Idaho)

This post was updated at 9:12 p.m. on March 16.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) still has no opponent for this year's gubernatorial race, but he's releasing his first television ad on Thursday, a spot touting his record on job creation and opposition to raising taxes.

The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that the ad will run in media markets around the state and the buy is in the six figures.

"Our economy has certainly done better than the region and the country's economy but we are impacted by this national recession," Jindal says in the ad. "We can't get complacent, we can't be satisfied with the progress we've made."

Jindal concludes the ad by saying, "My number one job is creating jobs. That's why we're forcing government to do more with less. I've made it very clear - as Governor we are not raising taxes in the state of Louisiana."

Jindal has been aggressively fundraising, and had $9.2 million cash on hand at the end of last year. On the Democratic side, 2010 lieutenant governor nominee Caroline Fayard (D) has recently been mentioned as a potential opponent.

A 91-year-old freshman state legislator in New Hampshire found himself on the national news radar earlier this week after he suggested the mentally disabled should be shipped to Siberia -- and his resignation soon followed.

But after looking at some of former state Rep. Martin Harty's (R) biographical information, it appears this was nothing out of the ordinary.

In Harty's Blue Book entry -- a guide to the state legislature that provides biographical information and answers to questions about hobbies -- he lists "B.S.ing with people, especially older women" next to his "favorite past-time/hobby."

Don't worry, he digs into policy too.

His education proposal is to "tear down architecture of schools and have barracks type buildings."

Now that he's no longer in the state House, he may have a little more free time for "B.S.ing." But he may want to tweak his education plan a bit, should he think about running again in the future.

No, we're not punking you.

Ian Murphy, the Buffalo Beast editor who infamously posed as conservative financier David Koch in a prank phone call to Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) is about to get in the New York's 26th District special election.

First reported by the Buffalo Pundit blog, Murphy is looking to run on the Green Party line. And New York Green Party co-chair Peter LaVenia told Roll Call he's all but certain to be named their nominee soon.

"The local out in western New York has talked to a number of different candidates, and they forwarded the recommendation," said LaVenia. Murphy "was the only one that they came to the conclusion represents Green values ... and is willing to change his registration to Green and run as a Green."

Murphy's entrance is only the latest twist in a special election that was triggered by weird circumstances to begin with. Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y.) resigned last month following a report that the married congressman had replied to a personal ad on Craigslist with a shirtless muscle photo. A special election is set for May 24.

Updated 1:18 p.m.

Republican Sharron Angle will pass on a Senate bid against Rep. Dean Heller (R) and will instead seek Heller's open 2nd congressional district seat, she says in a new YouTube video.

"The 2010 election was bittersweet," Angle says in the video. "Conservatives had some victories, but we still face obstacles from Democrats in Congress and the White House."

Angle's entrance into the GOP congressional primary likely clears the path for Heller in his Senate bid, but could set up a crowded and messy Republican race in the sprawling, largely rural northern district based in Reno and Carson City.

Angle isn't the only heavyweight who's eyeing the second congressional district -- Nevada GOP Chairman Mark Amodei and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki are also expected to get in. Kirk Lippold, who commanded the USS Cole when it was attacked in Yemen, and state Sen. Greg Brower have also been mentioned as candidates.

This will be Angle's second bid for the 2nd District seat. She lost to Heller by only 421 votes in the 2006 primary.

Nevada Republicans had been hoping that Angle, fresh off her failed bid to oust Sen. Harry Reid (D) would pass on both races, but the former state assemblywoman has proved nothing makes her happier than shaking up establishment. Her campaign against Reid, once seen as a sure win for the GOP, suffered from numerous missteps and blunders. The YouTube video references her loss in 2010, flashing Reid's face on screen several times.

While she proved an adept fundraiser, pulling in more than $28 million for her Senate campaign last year, she burned through all of it at a rapid pace and ended the year with more than $350,000 in debt. Sources said Angle's next report with the Federal Election Commission will show that debt paid off.

The Census Bureau rolled out data for two western states Tuesday: New Mexico and Montana. Both states may be trending Democratic: New Mexico's Hispanic population jumped, while Montana's growth was largely in its more liberal university and vacation towns.

-- Hispanics outnumber non-Hispanic whites in New Mexico for the first time during redistricting, as the Hispanic population grew by nearly a quarter in the past decade. New Mexico grew by 13 percent, with more than three quarters of the growth from Latinos.

New Mexico's Hispanic population has been there longer than the United States has existed, and much of the state's Latino growth can be attributed to high birthrates rather than immigration: As of 2008, 84 percent of New Mexico's Hispanics were native-born Americans, according to data from the Pew Hispanic Center.

Much of the state's growth was around Albuquerque: the city grew by 22 percent and nearby Rio Rancho grew by 70 percent and surpassed Santa Fe to become the state's third-largest town. Las Cruces, in the south of the state, also grew by nearly one third.

New Mexico's Hispanic voters, who make up about one third of the electorate, do not vote as consistently for Democrats as Latinos in nearby states like Nevada, Arizona and California, which makes this a swing state rather than a Democratic stronghold. The state went narrowly for Al Gore in 2000 and just as narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004, before swinging hard for President Obama in 2008. Democrats picked up two congressional districts that year.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will rely on the strategist who guided Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to an upset win in New Hampshire in 2000, The Hotline has learned.

Barbour has signed on Mike Dennehy as an adviser, giving him one of the more experienced voices in the Granite State. Dennehy managed McCain's 2000 campaign and served as national political director in the 2008 cycle.

"If Haley Barbour runs for president he¹ll be a formidable candidate as a two-term Governor from Mississippi dealing with national crises like Hurricane Katrina and the BP oil spill and not being afraid to tackle the tough issues while balancing his state budget by cutting spending, creating efficiencies and holding the line on taxes," Dennehy said. "His charisma, personality and excitement for retail politics will make him an ideal candidate for New Hampshire should he decide to run."

Dennehy is the second big-name hire for Barbour's political action committee, which serves as a presidential campaign in waiting. Earlier this month, Barbour hired South Carolina consultant Jim Dyke to run his communications shop.

A bill that passed the Hawaii House last week seeks to change the way county special elections are conducted, implementing an instant runoff voting (IRV) system. And while the current bill would not affect federal races, if it passes and is successful, a similar measure could be introduced down the road for federal contests.

Given the outcome of the 2010 special election in the state's First District, where Republican Charles Djou won with a plurality of the vote as two Democrats -- current Rep. Colleen Hanabusa and former Rep. Ed Case split the Democratic vote -- there is a recent historical example to cite for state politicians who would want to propose a change.

IRV allows voters the option to rank candidates as first, second and subsequent choices. If no candidate clinches a majority, the candidate who receives the least number of votes is eliminated and that candidate's votes are transferred to voters' second choice candidate.

The bill ensures the use of the IRV method for county elections in which a primary is not held and in special elections that would normally be subject to a runoff election. Regular county elections require that the winner receive a majority of the votes, while special elections create a situation in which only a plurality is required.

As Democrats keep up their recruiting push in their campaign to take back the House, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) speaks of his "alumni association" of former members who are interested in running again with a gleam in his eye.

It's a two-fold approach for the DCCC -- several are interested in running again, but even those who eventually don't provide critical intel and help for the campaign committee. But even as some of the top former members Democrats would like to see on the ballot again have either shuttered their campaign committees or have headed to lobbying shops, Israel insists he's not discouraged -- and those moves shouldn't be seen as indicators those former representatives won't run again .

"The number one priority that any former member of Congress has to have is eating and paying bills. I respect that. And so, they should do what they have to do in order to feed their families and pay their bills," Israel told Hotline On Call during an interview at the DCCC headquarters this week.

"Taking a job and closing down a committee doesn't put anybody out of the ballpark. It just means that you need cash flow -- that doesn't mean the door is closed and locked," said Israel. "We've always said there are some former members who will come back, some who won't."

And, Israel added, even taking a job at a lobby shop wouldn't necessarily disqualify someone from seeking a rematch.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. After officially launching his Senate bid Tuesday, Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) received a couple of high profile endorsements, and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour made some news in Iowa. Meanwhile, you can't miss what Arizona Senate candidate Jeff Flake is saying about the latest exercise craze hitting Capitol Hill. Here's today's rundown:

8) President Obama is picking the top seeds -- Duke, Kansas, Ohio State and Pittsburgh -- to advance to the Final Four.

7) The P90X workout routine is a big hit with Republicans on Capitol Hill, including House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Money quote from Flake: "They may think like Gingrich and Reagan, but we want to look like Tony." That's P-90X founder Tony Horton.

6) Voters swept Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Alvarez (R) out of office over pay hikes and a tax increase Tuesday. And they did it decisively: nearly nine of every 10 voted to remove Alvarez from office.

5) A seven-count indictment accuses Tom Ganley (R), who lost against Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Ohio) in 2010, of kidnapping a 39-year-old Cleveland woman and having sexual contact with her.

4) Embattled Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.) is now living happily with his mom.

Rapper Snoop Dogg joins the roast of businessman, and possible presidential candidate, Donald Trump: "Donald say he wants to run for president and move on into the White House. Why not? It wouldn't be the first time you pushed a black family out of their home."

Bonus coverage of the NCAA basketball tournament will be shown on CSPAN this year.

Today's Must See Moment -- What's the difference between a wet raccoon and Donald Trump's hair? Fast forward to 1:00 to find out.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

A three-week stopgap measure passed the House 271-158 Tuesday afternoon, with 54 Republicans voting against the bill. Every House Republican either committed to or publicly considering a Senate run in 2012 voted for the previous two-week government funding bill and then flipped to vote against Tuesday's three-week continuing resolution.

Reps. Todd Akin (R-Mo.), Dean Heller (R-Nev.), Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), Steve Pearce (R-N.M.), Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.), and Connie Mack (R-Fla.) all voted for the last CR but voted against the latest one, burnishing their conservative credentials ahead of the 2012 elections.

Some are specifically fighting for the mantle of most conservative in a Republican primary. Akin, if he decides to get in the race, will face off against two other candidates vying for tea party support. Heller may be trying to stave off a primary challenge from 2010 Senate nominee Sharron Angle (R). And if Mack runs, he'll face a crowded Republican primary field with candidates striving for the tea party support that propelled now-Sen. Marco Rubio (R) to victory.

If Chaffetz runs, he'll be challenging Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) -- who is in his own battle to prove himself credible to tea partiers, and already voted against the first CR earlier this month and has already committed to vote against this week's as well.

Meanwhile, freshmen made up just under half of the GOP's votes against the stopgap measure, but for all the talk this week of a split in the caucus led in part by the first-term tea party aligned members, the vast majority of even conservative Republicans still voted for the funding. And most of those who opposed the resolution sit in generally safe districts.

Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) announced his entrance into the Nevada Senate race this morning in an email to supporters, instantly providing Republicans with a formidable candidate in a pivotal battleground Senate seat.

"Your past support has meant a lot me and for this reason I wanted you to be among the first to know that I am running for the United States Senate," wrote Heller in an email to supporters.

"It is difficult to see so many people hurting in my home state. As many of you know, I grew up in Nevada and my wife Lynne and I have raised our family here. We see the tough choices our friends, neighbors, and family members are making every day and I see how poor decisions in Washington are impacting their lives."

Heller's entrance into the race has been widely expected for some time. When embattled Sen. John Ensign (R) announced last week that he would not seek reelection, he cleared the way for Heller to emerge in the race, avoiding a nasty primary fight between the two Republicans.

The GOP establishment is behind Heller, and he is the clear front-runner on the GOP side. Heller had $814,000 cash on hand at the end of 2010 according to his most recent fundraising report.

But other Republicans continue to look at the race, including 2010 Republican nominee Sharron Angle and Lieutenant Gov. Brian Krolicki (R), a friend of Heller's, though both are likely to take a closer look at the House seat Heller is vacating.

Heller also criticized President Obama and "his beltway allies" in his email to supporters.

"As families across Nevada struggle to pay their bills and fight to keep their homes, Barack Obama and his beltway allies are proposing record spending that will add to America's job-killing debt from a stratospheric $14 trillion to a staggering $20 trillion," he wrote.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) wants Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) to succeed retiring Sen. Jon Kyl (R), marking the second time in as many weeks Lee has made an endorsement in a Senate primary outside of Utah.

Inside Lee's home state, though, the rookie senator is staying quiet. Lee has vowed to remain neutral in his home state's own Senate primary, in which Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) is having a tough time courting conservative support.

"Jeff Flake's record on fiscal conservatism speaks for itself," Lee said in a statement. "He was offering legislation to cut spending, end earmark abuse, and limit government long before the Tea Party movement became popular. His election to the Senate will extend and build upon the conservative legacy of Senator Kyl."

One could read the Tea Party remark as a slap at Hatch, who has become remarkably more outspoken on conservative issues in light of a likely challenge from Rep. Jason Chaffetz. Hatch has ramped up his rhetoric in recent months, calling health care reform a "piece of crap" and a "dumb-ass program," words that stand in stark contrast to his reputation.

Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) is putting together a team of advisers, the latest sign that he is closely eying a rematch against Gov. Bev Perdue (D).

The Raleigh News & Observer reports McCrory has begun to ramp up by hiring his 2008 gubernatorial campaign manager and two former aides to former Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R).

While McCrory has not made an official announcement, is appears very likely that he'll run. He was recently very vocal about his opposition to a veto from Perdue of a bill that would have allowed the state to challenge the federal health care law.

Polling shows that Perdue is among the most vulnerable governors up for re-election, and that McCrory would start in solid position to unseat her. An automated Public Policy Polling (D) survey conducted in February found Perdue trailing McCrory by 12 points, 49 to 37 percent. A separate Public Opinion Strategies (R) survey found her approval rating at 32 percent, very dangerous territory for an incumbent.

MSNBC's Chris Matthews weighs in on the 2012 GOP field, "This is the weakest list of candidates I've ever seen... Mitt Romney is the reason the list keeps getting longer because everybody looks at him and says 'My god, I could beat him.'"

Jimmy Fallon, on Pres. Obama saying he was always getting in trouble in middle school: "Obama said he talked so much during class the teacher had to take away his teleprompter."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:10 when Matthews sizes up former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R).

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. While Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) has been staffing up, he lost a key staffer Monday, as his press secretary resigned after sending off-color emails. Meanwhile, the Florida Senate GOP primary sees some movement, while Republican Jane Corwin goes three for three. Here's today's rundown:

8) Visions of Sammy Sosa: Former White House adviser David Axelrod will appear at a fundraiser for the Arizona Democratic Party on March 20 in Mesa at a Cubs spring training game. Tickets range from $500 to $10,000.

7) Fox News has hired former Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) as a political commentator and analyst in the run-up to the 2012 presidential election.

6) Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.) told Hotline On Call Monday that he is continuing his damage control tour back home in his district. "Every group that I met with, the reception was very, very good," said Wu. The press attention at home and nationally has eased since news of the Wu's strange antics surfaced, but he still blamed the media for a double standard in covering his problems. The Oregonian "ran seven stories about me on a Sunday -- I'm not sure they ran seven stories when the Iraq War started," jabbed Wu. Wu also emphasized again he will not resign and intends to run for reelection in 2012.

On Monday, one House Republican who could have a tough reelection in 2012 took his frustration out on the more conservative arm of his party, slamming the "extreme wing" of the GOP for opposing the latest short-term continuing resolution. But he was afforded no sympathy from the House Democrats' campaign chief.

"I know that there is some opposition to working with Senate Democrats from the extreme right of the tea party who would rather see a government shutdown than pass a short-term solution; however, as long as we continue to cut spending each time, we are keeping our promise to the American people to reduce the deficit and fix the economy," Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) said in a statement.

But even as Grimm seemed open to a compromise, he's not getting a political pass from Democrats. In an interview with Hotline On Call, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) slammed his fellow New Yorker's statement as an insincere change of heart.

Candidates vying to replace former Rep. Jane Harman (D) in California's 36th District will face off for the first time on May 17, Gov. Jerry Brown (D) announced Monday.

The all-party primary that will be held in nine weeks will be the first federal test of the state's new "top two" system, which pits all candidates regardless of primary against each other on the ballot. If no one candidate receives a majority of the votes cast, the top-two vote-getters - the most likely scenario in this case - will move on to the general election on July 12.

Candidates in the race so far include Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, Secretary of State Debra Bowen, and liberal activist Marcy Winograd, who twice challenged Harman in the Democratic primary. Two of the three women are expected to advance to the general election. Republicans who have announced include Redondo Beach Mayor Mike Gin and Redondo City Attorney Mike Webb.

Monday was Brown's final day to set the date for the special election, after Harman made her resignation official on February 28 to head the Woodrow Wilson Center. He had hoped to schedule the election to coincide with a statewide election he was pushing for on his tax plan, but he has yet to reach an agreement with state lawmakers to bring the referendum before voters.

Last week, we wondered whether Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) could pull off a race as an independent, assuming he loses a Republican primary (Hint: The law says he can't). But what about Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)?

To be clear, like Lugar, Snowe is committing herself fully toward winning the Republican primary. "She's been a lifelong Republican and she is running as a Republican," Snowe chief of staff John Richter told Hotline On Call. That's a good thing for her career -- the law isn't terribly friendly to independent contenders in Maine.

If Snowe wishes to run as an independent, she must file a withdrawal from the Republican Party by March 1, 2012 -- more than 3 months before the June 10 primary. If she did withdraw, she would need between 4,000 and 6,000 petitions from registered voters by June 1 to get on the ballot as an independent candidate.

Snowe will need 2,000 petitions by March 15 to gain access to the Republican primary ballot.

Maine is known for its independent streak. In recent years, unaffiliated state legislators have made up enough of the House and Senate to throw control to whichever major party they so choose, and two of the last six governors have not been affiliated with one party or another.

That's good for Snowe, a moderate, when it comes to the general election. But first she has to get through a Republican primary. Snowe has made a serious effort to reach out to conservative activists and tea party officials, meeting with them [subscriber] in small group settings in order to build relationships.

She'll need to do so in advance of next year's primary. The Maine Republican faces a situation similar to Lugar's, in all but one important facet: Lugar will face state Treasurer Richard Mourdock in his GOP primary. Snowe, so far, faces only two gadfly contenders.

Political observers and reporters in Washington and Virginia closely monitoring Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine were thrown a curveball Monday afternoon, following a report from a Virginia radio station that seemed to indicate that Kaine had decided to enter the Virginia Senate race and announced his decision in a highly unorthodox manner. While the report was ultimately shot down by the DNC, a spokesperson did say that Kaine acknowledged that he is "increasingly likely" to run, the strongest public indication yet that he is leaning toward entering the race.

A report on the website of Charlottesville radio station WINA was published Monday afternoon, indicating "a University of Richmond student has been told that former governor Tim Kaine has said he WILL run for the U.S. Senate. A caller named Greg phoned the Schilling Show on Newsradio 1070 WINA early Monday afternoon and said he has two friends taking the class that Kaine teaches at the UR Jepson School. Kaine reportedly told the class that he will seek the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat being left vacant by Jim Webb."

Twitter was subsequently abuzz with reporters and other observers relaying various reactions from Democrats who did not know anything about the announcement and were unable to confirm the report.

Two newly-minted governors are taking different approaches to closing their states' respective budget shortfalls, but are finding that it takes a lot of political capital to tackle budget crises.

Their approval ratings are both underwater within months of assuming office, according to recent polling.

According to a new Ohio Poll out Monday, a plurality of Ohioans disapprove of the job Republican Gov. John Kasich is doing, just two months into his term. Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut released last week also showed Gov. Dan Malloy (D) with upside-down approval ratings.

In the Buckeye State, Kasich has led the charge for Senate Bill 5, a measure that would restrict collective bargaining power of public-employee unions, in addition to blocking automatic pay raises for state and local employees. The bill squeaked through the state Senate earlier this month by just one vote. Republicans also control the state House.

While Ohio hasn't garnered the same amount of attention as its Midwestern cohort, Wisconsin, there have been widespread union protests pushing back on Kasich and state Republicans. Kasich maintains the cuts and restrictions on bargaining are necessary to reduce the state's deficit.

The Ohio Poll, conducted by the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research, shows that Kasich is struggling to make his argument. Only 40 percent of Ohioans in the poll approve of Kasich's performance, while 47 percent disapprove.

Among independents, only 30 percent approve of the job Kasich is doing, while a majority (52 percent) disapprove. Kasich earns even lower marks for his handling of the economy: 38 percent of all Ohioans approve, while 49 percent disapprove.

Florida billionaire Jeff Greene was not a particularly impressive candidate in 2010, losing the Democratic Senate primary by 26 points despite spending nearly $24 million of his own money on the race.

But just in case there are any Florida Democrats hoping to recruit another billionaire for a future political race, they'll have several to choose from.

The St. Petersburg Times has an interesting breakdown of the 27 Floridians who made Forbes' latest list of billionaires. 14 are Republicans, 10 (including Greene) are Democrats, one is an independent and 2 are not registered.

Gov. Rick Scott (R), while also considerably wealthy, did not make the list, as he is multimillionaire, not a billionaire.

Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y, is going up against number one seed Glenn Beck in the Washington DC madness brackets, "not for March Madness but for actual Madness."

Seth Meyers, on President Obama revealing he was picked on as a child: Schoolmates that said "his ears were too large" and "his name was funny. Or as he now thinks of it, the good old days."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:45 to see who rounds out the Washington DC madness bracket. Then let us know who you think will win in our Late Night Poll!

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump!

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The NCAA locked in its field of 68 for March Madness on Sunday, while the full GOP presidential field remains unclear. But on the Democratic side, President Obama is weighing in on two issues we could see more of in 2012. Here's today's rundown.

8) She set spending records in her gubernatorial bid in 2010, but don't expect to see Republican Meg Whitman at it again in 2012, as the former EBay CEO says she is "definitely not" considering a Senate bid.

7) Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) was in the Granite State over the weekend, where she told a crowd, "you're the state where the shot was heard around the world in Lexington and Concord." Trouble is, Concord, Massachusetts, not New Hampshire, was the site of the shot heard 'round the world.

6) This is Spinal Tap? No. This is a journalism speech. Today, comedian Harry Shearer will deliver a National Press Club Newsmaker Luncheon address on "Media Myths -- The Need for Proper Focus in Journalism."

5) While many GOP-controlled state governments started the year promising action to crack down on illegal immigration, a lack of consensus has slowed the advance of some bills -- even in some of the most conservative states in the country.

The Gridiron Club hosts its annual dinner this evening, bringing together more than 650 government officials, political figures and journalists in Washington for the annual white-tie gala.

President Obama will attend the dinner and deliver remarks for the first time since he moved into the White House, with Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), a potential 2012 presidential candidate, delivering the traditional GOP response.

The dinner has attracted its traditional controversy again this year, denying C-SPAN's annual request to film the event. Club president Susan Page, of USA Today, upheld Gridiron tradition of keeping cameras out. And while the dinner is on the record, Page is also urging attendees not to Tweet, take videos or blog about the event until after it is over.

A pasquinade of political figures and the media, the dinner features songs and skits written by Gridiron members about Sarah Palin, House Speaker John Boehner and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, among others.

"And it may seem to you I lived last year, with my finger in the wind. Never knowing what to cling to, 'cause I had to win. And when it comes to all your judgments, frankly, I don't give a damn. I still have my Senate seat. And my best friend, Lindsey Graham," a cast member portraying Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will sing, in a number titled "Finger In The Wind" (sung to the tune of Elton John's "Candle In The Wind").

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) is sounding more serious about a presidential campaign, and his "Meet The Press" appearance Sunday will give a telling hint of his intentions. And with a recent NBC/WSJ poll showing two-thirds of GOP primary voters more likely to back a candidate who puts more focus on the economy/deficit than gay marriage/abortion, his "social truce" isn't as unpopular with the base as the CW has suggested.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) picked up a significant political victory this week, but the win could very well lead to some future losses. The elimination of collective bargaining rights weakens Wisconsin's labor unions, who donated heftily to Badger State Democrats. But Walker and his fellow Republicans potentially created some serious problems for themselves in pursuing the bill so forcefully.

Eight Republican state legislators are now the targets of recall efforts, and a great deal of money, time and manpower will be spent to remove them from office. It's not out of the question that the GOP could lose its majority in the state Assembly, which would hamstring Walker's agenda moving forward. Perhaps more problematic, Walker may have energized the liberal base and turned some moderates against him in a state Republicans performed well in during the 2010 cycle. Walker will surely celebrate his legislative victory, but he might wonder if it was all worth it in the not so distant future.

While political prognostication is, at best, educated speculation, it is speculation nonetheless. During the last week, prominent Virginia Democrats repeatedly suggested that Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine would eventually jump into the Virginia Senate race, that he was 90% there, or something along those lines. However, private discussions with members of Kaine's inner circle reveal that even they don't know what he's going to do and that those who say otherwise are essentially participating in wishful thinking instead of informed prognosticating.

This weekend, Sunday morning television will be eying a possible government shutdown over budget talks. NBC's "Meet the Press" will sit down with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to discuss how the Senate Democrats will handle negotiations with Republicans. Over on "FOX News Sunday," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will give his take on how the budget deal should play put and how the Republicans plan to keep their campaign promises.

"FOX News Sunday" anchor Chris Wallace will discuss the long term federal deficit with Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.). Over on CNN, anchor Candy Crowley will zero in on the budget battles, speaking with Senate Whips Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.).

CBS' "Face the Nation" has the latest on the disaster in Japan and hosts retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.).

"Meet the Press" turns to potential 2012 presidential contender Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) to discuss state budget difficulties and how the situation in Wisconsin is affecting other states, including his own.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

With the casting of Julianne Moore as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) in the upcoming HBO film "Game Change," the Oscar-nominated actress joins a great tradition of big name actors playing politicians in movies. Given Moore's own recent over-the-top approximation of a Boston accent on "30 Rock," her take on Palin's accent should be extraordinary. We'll see how she stacks up with our favorites. Here's a rundown of some of the more memorable performances in recent cinematic history:

--Josh Brolin in "W": Who can forget Brolin's memorable portrayal of George W. Bush in Oliver Stone's "W"? In the 2008 film, which was released in the lead-up to the presidential election that year, Brolin portrays Bush at various stages of his life -- from being a college student at Yale, through his tenure at the White House. Brolin's performance is peppered with mannerisms people have come to associate with Bush, and the film even includes as characters a few of the more notable members of Bush's inner circle at the White House, including Karl Rove and Dick Cheney.

--British actor Michael Sheen has honed his take on former British Prime Minister Tony Blair through three movies, detailing the so-called "Blair trilogy:" First was "The Deal," on the events leading to Blair being named prime minister; "The Queen" came next, and examined Blair's evolving relationship with Queen Elizabeth II in the wake of Princess Diana's death; and finally "The Special Relationship," exploring Blair's relationship with Bill Clinton and then Bush. A Telegraph article claimed that by the third movie, Sheen as Blair was "so instinctive and understated he makes the real thing look like a caricature."

CORRECTION: The original version of this post gave the incorrect location of Nampa, Idaho. It is located in Canyon County.

The Census Bureau released detailed data on three more states Thursday: Arizona, Wisconsin, and Idaho. Arizona and Idaho grew quickly, while Wisconsin grew at a steadier pace.

-- Arizona's population jumped by nearly a quarter in the last decade, largely because of an exploding Hispanic population. Latinos are now almost 30 percent of the state. The Grand Canyon State's future is increasingly multicultural: 43 percent of Arizona's children are Hispanic, and the state's high level of white retirees did not grow nearly as rapidly in the last decade as it did in the 1990s. Arizona's Hispanic growth slowed a bit from that decade as well, but since 1990 the state has added more than 1.2 million Hispanics.

Most of the state grew, but the areas around Phoenix saw the quickest expansion. Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, grew by a quarter, and Chandler, in the southeast of Phoenix's sprawl, grew by a third and is now the fourth largest city in the state. The city of Phoenix itself is now majority non-white for the first time, as more Anglos moved to the suburbs.

The state's Hispanic growth may make it more politically marginal in the future, although it will still lean Republican for some years.

The state picked up an additional congressional seat. Arizona has a bipartisan commission draw the lines. Three districts in the state flipped from Republican to Democratic hands in the last decade, although two flipped back last year. It is likely that Tucson's growth means its district will shrink and become more Democratic, making things easier for Rep. Gabrielle Giffords.

As candidates face off in the special election to succeed former Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.), they should prepare to meet some very happy people -- at least according to Gallup-Healthways' annual "Well-Being Index" released earlier this week, in which Harman's old district finished second on a list that ranked all 435 districts (and D.C.) nationwide.

Rep. Anna Eshoo's (D) 14th Congressional District in California finished at the top of the list for the third straight year.

Rounding out the top five: Colorado's 2nd Congressional District, represented by Jared Polis (D), Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, represented by Colleen Hanabusa (D) and Georgia's 6th Congressional District, represented by Tom Price (R).

To compile the overall "Well-Being Index," Gallup conducted live interviews in 2010 with roughly 1,000 U.S. adults nationally, seven days a week, excluding major holidays.

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index Composite Score is comprised of six sub-indices: life evaluation, emotional health, physical health, healthy behavior, work environment and basic access.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Michigan's 13th Congressional District -- represented by first-term Rep. Hansen Clarke (D), who defeated former Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in the Democratic primary in 2010 -- finished last on the list, just after Kentucky's 5th Congressional District, represented by Hal Rogers (R).

Check out the full rankings, as well as the breakdowns by state and city, here.

Iowa conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats noted that he was asked this week whether he would run for the Senate in 2014 against Sen. Tom Harkin (D). Per the Sioux City Journal:

"I think about it daily. That doesn't mean I'm going to run against him, OK. I don't know. Our goal is to build The Family Leader right now, and I'd like that to be my long-term vision," Vander Plaats said.

Vander Plaats has run for governor 3 times, most recently in 2010, when he lost in the primary to Gov. Terry Branstad (R). His profile is likely to be raised in the next few months as the GOP presidential race kicks into gear in Iowa and his conservative group "The Family Leader" hosts its presidential lecture series. But how that will translate -- and what his intentions will be -- in 2014 remains to be seen.

Something similar is happening in New Hampshire, with conservative activist Ovide Lamontagne -- who lost by a very slim margin in the 2010 GOP Senate primary to now-Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) -- already playing a big role in the early stages of the presidential primary process in the Granite State, hosting house parties with potential contenders.

One key difference? The turnaround time. Lamontagne is mulling a gubernatorial run in 2012, and would likely be able to parlay the visibility he gains over the next few months to an immediate campaign starting in early 2012, should he decide to run.

As Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) continues to recover from a near-fatal assassination attempt in January, her 2010 Republican challenger is making his first moves toward a possible rematch.

Jesse Kelly, who came within one percentage point of Giffords last November, filed a Statement of Organization with the Federal Election Commission on Thursday, setting up his campaign committee and designating the 8th District as his focus again. Arizona will also gain another congressional seat after redistricting.

Earlier this year, Kelly appeared to be preparing for a rematch against Giffords, and had scheduled a special announcement a week after the January 8 shooting at Giffords' "Congress On Your Corner," but he canceled that event in the wake of the tragedy that injured Giffords and killed six people.

Following the shooting, there were rumors in Arizona that Kelly aides had been asking around the state about special election procedures, should Giffords resign her seat, but one Kelly aide told Hotline On Call in January that Kelly was wishing Giffords and the other victims a speedy recovery and wouldn't speculate on his plans for the next election.

"It's just not the time to even discuss that," said Kelly spokesman John Ellinwood. "We're just not there at this time, and I have no idea when or if that would happen."

While Republicans had initially felt Giffords' seat was a prime one for them to flip in 2012, a competitive race there would be all but off the GOP's table if Giffords runs again, with state and national Republicans acknowledging privately that running such a contest would be seen as insensitive so soon.

According to Kelly's year-end filing with the FEC, he still has nearly $39,000 in his campaign account. Giffords still has $285,000 in her campaign account, and she was also named last week to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's first wave of its Frontline incumbent protection program.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. As the price of oil continues to dominate the news cycle, President Obama will hold a news conference today to discuss rising energy costs. Elsewhere, Kaine-watch continues while one man sticks to just beer and water for Lent. Here's today's rundown:

8) Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), Dick Morris and Frank Luntz will turn up on the same New York Times best-seller list to be published March 20.

7) An Iowa man is sticking to just beer and water for Lent.

6) Meanwhile, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), with his eye on a Sam Adams, introduced legislation that would keep tax breaks for small breweries.

5) The waiting game continues: DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, isn't planning to announce his decision on a Senate run until next week at the earliest. Meanwhile, Mike Thomas will manage former Sen. George Allen's (R) Virginia Senate campaign. Thomas ran Allen's successful 1993 gubernatorial campaign.

Though the November election results seemed to mean the gay-rights agenda would slow significantly this year, proponents of same-sex unions have scored several major wins during the last month despite setbacks in Indiana and Iowa, while New Hampshire produced mixed results.

The Maryland state Senate passed a bill that would legalize same-sex marriage by a 25-21 mark last month. The heavily Democratic state House, which is generally considered more socially liberal than the state Senate, is preparing to vote on the issue after defeating four amendments that could have derailed it. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) signaled he would sign it into law.

In Hawaii, Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) signed into law a civil unions bill that essentially grants same-sex couples the state-allotted rights of marriage without the legal name, which is barred in the state constitution. State Sen. Sam Slom (R), the only Republican in the legislature's 25-member upper chamber, said that liberal social activists "have certainly gained momentum" on social issues like establishing civil unions in Hawaii.

The Census rolled out new data for four more states this week, including the nation's most populous state, California, and two presidential bellwethers that are losing congressional representation, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

-- Three in five Californians are now ethnic minorities. The state's Hispanic population grew by more than a quarter in the last decade, and Latinos now make up 38% of the state, which nearly surpasses non-Hispanic whites, who make up 40% of the population. More than half of Californians younger than 18 are Latino. The political and policy ramifications of the rapid demographic shift in the nation's largest state are huge.

High Latino turnout helped propel Gov. Jerry Brown (D) and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) to double-digit wins last year, and all 34 Democratic House members were reelected despite Democrats' struggles nationally last fall. Hispanic growth will almost certainly be reflected in the redistricting process that is already underway.

Latino growth has hurt Republican candidates statewide. But two political reforms approved in last year's election and Latino demands for more representation should make incumbents from both parties nervous. A bipartisan commission will draw the congressional district lines this time around, undoing the successful gerrymander Democrats achieved last decade (only one seat changed hands through the decade, and that one went Democratic). California voters also approved a multiparty primary system that will allow the top two vote-getters to run in the general election, putting pressure on ideologues in both parties who may be forced to run against moderates of their own party in a general election.

The Wisconsin state Senate voted Wednesday night to eliminate collective bargaining provisions for most public workers, causing protesters to react angrily to the latest development in the ongoing battle between Gov. Scott Walker (R) and government unions.

Among those expressing his displeasure was former Sen. Russ Feingold (D).

"Last night will be remembered as a black mark on the history of Wisconsin government," Feingold said in a statement. "Proponents of this plan should remember: Wisconsin's citizens will hold their elected officials accountable," he added.

Efforts to recall state senators -- Republicans as well as the Democrats who left the state -- are underway. Some protesters have even called for Walker himself to be recalled -- something that can't happen until Walker has been in office for at least one year.

Would Feingold consider a run for governor if Walker was recalled?

"He [Feingold] supports the protests and has joined in them. Russ, however, is not focused on running for a political office right now. He is teaching at Marquette Law School and writing a book and is involved in the political arena through Progressives United," a Feingold aide told Hotline On Call, when asked if Feingold would be interested in running.

No one knows how to kick off a presidential campaign quite like Donald Trump. The Donald knows Americans want a politician who can laugh at himself. And what better way than by being the target of a celebrity roast?

Comedy Central taped a roast of Trump Wednesday night in New York City. A source in the room provided some highlights of the show -- which is slated to air March 15 -- to Hotline On Call. Here's what we can post (this is a family blog, after all):

Family Guy creator Seth MacFarlane told Trump, "If your plan for America is 'You're fired' then you're two years too late." Could MacFarlane be angling for a spot on the Council of Economic Advisers if Trump is elected?

Comedian Jeffrey Ross told the celebrity CEO, whose fortunes have famously gone from boom to bust and back again, "Trump, I read your autobiography. It has four Chapter 11s." So the good news for Trump is that he already has aides in place working to get ahead of the opposition hits he would likely face in an election.

Meanwhile, Trump did a little message testing of his own.

We've clarified this post to make clear Lugar has shown no indication he will run as an independent

Can Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) muster up a little "Joementum" if he falls short in the Republican primary to Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, borrowing from Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-Conn.) playbook and seeking his seat as an independent? The short answer is no.

In 2006, Lieberman lost in the Democratic primary to Ned Lamont. But Nutmeg State law allowed Lieberman to run in the general election as an independent; he easily won a three-way race. Indiana law doesn't afford the incumbent the same avenues, even if Lugar did show an interest in running as an independent.

A radio ad encouraging Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) to support House Republicans' budget-cutting agenda began running in his exurban Philadelphia district Thursday, part of a new coordinated campaign to pressure the moderate lawmaker against siding with Democrats and President Obama.

The ad, bank-rolled by the Americans for Prosperity, comes five days before the conservative group hosts a rally in Dent's district urging him to "stand strong" against the president's budget, and is coupled with the release of a new website. It debuts just as lawmakers are entrenched in a heated debate over funding for the current fiscal year's budget. Newly appointed Americans for Prosperity Director Sam Rohrer, a conservative favorite who lost to now Gov. Tom Corbett (R) in the state's gubernatorial primary last year, will attend the rally.

Much of the focus this session has dwelled on whether the Republican Caucus, which was nearly a homogenous voting bloc last year as the party resolutely voted "no" on Democratic initiatives, would begin to splinter with the inclusion of newly elected tea party members intent on pushing a conservative agenda. But this ad signals concern about the other end of that spectrum: moderate Republicans breaking away from the caucus on votes they feel are too conservative.

In the view of Democratic and Republican political operatives, the potential 2012 GOP White House hopefuls whose fortunes are most on the rise are Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, while former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is a rapidly depreciating asset, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

CORRECTION: The previous version of this post incorrectly identified the former NPR executive Stewart discusses in the video. That person is Ron Schiller.

Jon Stewart, on former NPR executive Ron Schiller resigning after being caught calling Republicans "anti-intellectual" and tea party members "racists": "Liberals trust pimps what can you say."

Donald Trump is being accused of running for President just to promote his television show.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:37 when Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., and Stephen Colbert go head to head over Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. A sad day in Washington Wednesday, as the "Dean of the Washington press corps" David Broder passed away. Major votes were taken in Wisconsin and Florida and a major role has been accepted by Oscar nominee Julianne Moore. Here's today's rundown:

7) Moore, not Tina Fey, has landed the starring role of Sarah Palin in HBO's adaptation of the bestselling book "Game Change."

6) The man whose wife had an affair with Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) says Ensign should resign immediately.

5) National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn is staying out of the Texas Senate GOP primary.

4) Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) and the state Cabinet have ended the automatic restoration of voting and other civil rights to nonviolent felons once their sentences are up, now requiring at least a five-year waiting period before they can apply to get their rights back. The move ends a policy instituted under then-Gov. Charlie Crist in 2007 that allowed for a speedier path to a reinstatement of rights.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) announced today that the special election in New York's 26th Congressional district will be held on May 24.

Cuomo's declaration comes exactly one month after former Rep. Chris Lee (R) resigned following the revelation that he replied to a personal ad on Craigslist with a shirtless photo of himself.

Cuomo had insisted the legislature pass his proposal to change the state's federal election laws to allow sufficient time for military and overseas ballots to be mailed and sent back.The law now requires elections in the state to be held between 70 and 80 days after a vacancy is recognized, twice the previous timeframe.

"This law makes sure that all New Yorkers - including those serving in the military - have their votes counted," Cuomo said in a statement. "Our electoral process only functions properly when all citizens have the chance to participate. I thank the legislature for quickly and unanimously passing this measure so that I could sign it into law and call a special election to ensure fair representation in the 26th Congressional District."

Assemblywoman Jane Corwin, the Republican nominee, has emerged as the frontrunner in the race, despite efforts from Iraq War veteran David Bellavia to woo conservatives. Corwin got the backing of New York Conservative Party Chairman Michael Long this week, and is expected to get the endorsement of the party when the executive committee meets to vote.

Democrats have yet to put forward a timetable for selecting their nominee, although Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul is seen as the frontrunner to earn the nomination. Wealthy businessman Jack Davis, who has run three times before for the seat as a Democrat, tried for the GOP nomination but lost, and is now floating his own independent campaign and has said he would spent as much as $3 million of his own money.

Jon Huntsman (R) is still the U.S. Ambassador to China for a few more weeks, but he's making news thousands of miles away in the Granite State.

Former New Hampshire Commissioner of Employment Security Richard Brothers has been making calls to the media and lining up key people to make positive remarks on behalf of Huntsman, New Hampshire Journal reports. The move comes just after Huntsman, who is seriously weighing a presidential bid, was recently criticized in an interview by former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu (R), who the Journal reports has been informally advising former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R).

In addition, the recently-formed Horizon PAC recently announced that Peter Spaulding, who worked for Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) presidential campaign in 2000 will be its top New Hampshire adviser. The PAC isn't officially affiliated with Huntsman, but has been described by a top staffer as Huntsman's "campaign-in-waiting."

As uncertainty surrounds Romney's Iowa strategy, Huntsman could emerge as a real wild card in the early stages of the overall campaign, if the two end up running. New Hampshire will be a must-win for Romney if he does not win Iowa, and Huntsman will likely work to appeal to the same moderate bloc Romney will be going after in New Hampshire. The apparent seriousness of Huntsman's ostensible operation in New Hampshire is notable, even if the former Utah governor does not emerge as a threat to win the primary. Perhaps Sununu was on to something in going after Huntsman early.

4:22 p.m. UPDATE: Sununu says he is not formally advising any candidates. "I don't know if advising is even the right term. I haven't made up my mind yet on whom I'm going to support," he told Hotline On Call. Sununu says he's talked to a number of potential candidates, but not in formal advisory roles.

It's hard to find the perfect pair of jeans: just ask former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney (R).

Romney and his changing image were the subject of a Los Angeles Times profile over the weekend. The piece touches on Romney's problem of voters finding him inauthentic, in part a result of him remaking his image each time he runs for office. Perhaps most notably, the piece notes that Romney has lately been "sporting skinny Gap jeans bought for him by his wife."

It wasn't the first time Romney's jeans have garnered attention.

The dispute over government unions that began with a heated budget battle in Wisconsin has now become a politically-charged national issue.

And Crossroads GPS, the policy arm of Republican group American Crossroads, is entering the fray today, launching a new television attacking the influence government unions, airing across the country.

In the ad, a narrator blasts "a system that collects hundreds of millions in mandatory dues to back liberals who support government unions." A 2007 clip of President Obama at an SEIU event follows.

The size of the buy is $750,000. The ad will run for one week on CNBC, CNN and Fox News Channel.

The ad comes after a new poll commissioned by the conservative 501(c)(4) group Resurgent Republic shows a striking partisan divide over the way government unions are perceived.

60 percent of Democrats surveyed have a favorable opinion of "government employee unions" while just 16 percent have an unfavorable opinion. In contrast, just 18 percent of Republicans surveyed have a favorable view, while 60 percent view government employee unions unfavorably.

Overall, 35 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion, while 40 percent view government employee unions unfavorably. The poll was conducted March 1-3 by Ayres, McHenry & Associates, Inc. (R) on behalf of Resurgent Republic. 1,000 registered voters were surveyed and the poll has margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

The poll contrasts with a Bloomberg survey also out today that shows that Americans have favorable opinions of both "public employees" (72/17 fav/unfav) and "labor unions" (49/40).

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The Indiana Senate GOP primary is heating up while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich addresses his past marital infidelity. And what's in Sen. Herb Kohl's (D-Wis.) future? Here's today's rundown:

9) Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says don't mess with the cowboy poetry festival.

8) The Indiana Senate GOP primary is heating up, with state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) accusing Sen. Richard Lugar (R) of being inconsistent on the House spending cuts. Lugar first indicated on Tuesday that he would vote against the cuts, but later said he misunderstood the question and would vote for them. No one will be watching Lugar's record in the Senate more closely than Mourdock's campaign over the next several months.

7) Former Rep. Joseph Kennedy (D-Mass.) reiterated that he will not challenge Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.). Meanwhile, former Pennsylvania state Rep. Sam Rohrer (R) is not ruling out a challenge to Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.).

6) There's no honeymoon for Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy (D-Conn.) Quinnipiac finds he has an underwhelming 35 percent job approval rating, with 40 percent disapproving. Maybe the war of words with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie isn't helping

5) Entrepreneur Byron Georgiou (D) became the first candidate to jump in the Nevada Senate race Tuesday. But the real names to watch are the statewide Democratic officials:Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, Secretary of State Ross Miller, and Treasurer Kate Marshall. While Rep. Shelley Berkley gets the Washington buzz, they have better profiles for winning a statewide race.

Jon Stewart sits down with the latest Republican 2012 presidential contender, super computer Reagan OS 911. Reagan OS 911, on how he stacks up to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, "I share his fiscal discipline and presidential good looks."

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is on a campaign to save florescent light bulbs.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast Forward to 1:30 when Reagan OS 911 goes after former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Then let us know who you think would be the best GOP 2012 contender in our Late Night Poll!

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Businessman Bill Maloney (R) released the first ad of this year's West Virginia special gubernatorial campaign, a radio spot titled "What's Wrong?" The ad began airing statewide this morning.

"I'm so frustrated with career politicians," says one West Virginian to another in the ad. "Well, here's some good news," answers the other man. "Conservative Republican Bill Maloney is running for governor."

The ad emphasizes Maloney's conservative credentials, business and job-creating experience, and role in rescuing the tapped Chilean miners last year. It also sums up the primary aims of Maloney's overall campaign thus far: he's courting conservative voters and highlighting his status as a political newcomer and not a career politician.

The race is off to a slow start in some ways -- the state Legislature is still in session, tying up a number of the candidates who are also state government officeholders. There are just over two months left until the May 14 primary - giving candidates like Maloney a head start on active campaigning this month.

Recently departed Virginia Democratic Party Chairman Dick Cranwell thinks you can pencil in Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine as a Senate candidate.

"I think he's going to run," Cranwell told Hotline On Call during an interview. "I think it's up in the 90th percentile."

Kaine is reportedly set to decide whether he's running this week or next. Democrats ranging from outgoing Virginia Sen. Jim Webb (D) to President Obama have encouraged Kaine to enter the race, with most pegging him as by far the party's best Senate. Winning the Virginia race is critical if Democrats want to retain control of the Senate as they defend 22 other seats, and Kaine's presence on the ticket could boost Obama's chances in a key battleground state.

"I just think, look, he and the president are very close friends," said Cranwell. "Holding Virginia is important to the president, important to Tim. Tim on the ticket helps the president in Virginia."

"I think the word going around among Democrats right now is Tim really needs to run, it's a critical election," he added.

If you take a glance at the major development in North Carolina state government over the past few days, you'll get a glimpse of what the 2012 gubernatorial contest could look like.

Gov. Bev Perdue (D) vetoed a Republican-backed measure that would have challenged the federal health care law over the weekend and former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) -- who Perdue narrowly defeated by just over 3 points in 2008 -- was critical of Perdue's decision, telling Charlotte's WBTV Monday "it makes no sense to say that a state challenging the constitutionality of a federal law is unconstitutional itself."

"A state can't pass a law that is out of obeyance with federal laws, and this House Bill 2 clearly is," Perdue said in her veto statement over the weekend.

Initially, it looked as if Perdue would let the bill become law without her signature, but a February 23 memo from the state's attorney general warning of the impact on some state programs apparently convinced her to change her mind.

When asked by Hotline On Call on February 25 in Washington whether she would veto the measure, Perdue had said, "I don't know what I'm going to do."

McCrory has not officially announced a gubernatorial bid, but sounds like he is ready for another run. "I hope to. I really want to," he said in February when asked whether he planned another gubernatorial campaign.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. On Monday, as Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) announced his plans to exit the stage, one potential presidential contender signaled an entrance. Here's today's rundown:

8) As the Obama administration continues to credit the health care plan former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) signed in the Bay State, Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley is backing President Obama's plan ... with Romney's.

7) Cindy McCain and Ben Affleck are teaming up to help Congo.

6) Obama plans to nominate Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, who built a reputation as an expert on trade relations with China before heading to D.C., to be the next Ambassador to China.

5) Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) made her Senate bid official Monday afternoon and was joined by a host of Republicans including former-Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) at an event designed to discourage other Republicans from challenging her. Lieutenant Gov. John Sanchez (R) and Rep. Steve Pearce (R) are still looking at the race.

4) FIRST ON THE SORT: Republican Jane Corwin will launch her first radio ad today in the special election in New York's 26th District. Fresh off getting the influential backing of New York Conservative Party Chair Michael Long, the GOP nominee's 60-second spot that will air across the district continues to emphasize her conservative credentials and business experience. "It's more important than ever that Western New York has a conservative voice in Washington. That voice is small businesswoman Jane Corwin," says the ad.

The radio ad is part of an ongoing effort from Corwin and her supporters to bolster the Assemblywoman's conservative bona fides even as Iraq War veteran David Bellavia threatens an independent bid that's so far gained little traction.

Listen to the full ad here.

Stephen Colbert is concerned that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee might loose the key Tatooine vote for criticizing actress Natalie Portman, "It's a swing planet!"

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., wants Congress to make the rules.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:50 for traces of "Duct, Scott and/or packing tape."

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

A former female employee to Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) has filed a sexual harassment suit against the 10-term congressman, accusing him of "unwelcome sexual advances," and "unwelcome touching."

Winsome Packer filed the lawsuit in federal court in Washington, D.C., on Monday, along with the conservative group Judicial Watch. Packer says the incidents took place from 2008 until 2010, when she worked with Hastings on the U.S. Commission on Cooperation and Security in Europe, or the Helsinki Commission. Hastings co-chaired the independent government agency during that time, and the commission and its former staff director, Fred Turner are also named in the suit.

According to the lawsuit, "Mr. Hastings' intention was crystal clear: he was sexually attracted to Ms. Packer, wanted a sexual relationship with her, and would help progress her career if she acquiesced to his sexual advances." Those detailed include "multiple demands" to stay at her apartment, "unwanted physical contact" include hugging, inviting her to accompany him to his hotel room, and asking "inappropriate questions in public" such as "What kind of underwear are you wearing?" Packer says that as a result, she experienced "insomnia, anxiety, depression, high-blood pressure, and developed symptoms of coronary artery disease."

In a statement, Hastings denied the charges, but said he had not yet read the entire complaint.

"I have never sexually harassed anyone. In fact, I am insulted that these ludicrous allegations are being made against me. When all the facts are known in this case, the prevailing sentiment will be, 'How bizarre!," said Hastings. ""I will win this lawsuit. That is a certainty. In a race with a lie, the truth always wins. And when the truth comes to light and the personal agendas of my accusers are exposed, I will be vindicated."

Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) is announcing her Senate campaign this afternoon, but the possibility of a high-profile primary challenge remains, and could present the former congresswoman with some difficulty as she seeks her party's nomination.

Wilson is a moderate Republican who represented New Mexico's first Congressional District for a decade before running for the Senate in 2008. She lost in the GOP primary to a much more conservative candidate, Rep. Steve Pearce (R), who himself remains a possibility for the race this time around as well. Last month, Pearce sent an email to supporters in which he warned against a repeat of the 2008 primary which divided the party and left him as a bruised nominee.

But a more compelling possible candidate is Lieutenant Gov. John Sanchez (R). Sanchez, who was the Republican nominee for governor in 2002, but lost to Democrat Bill Richardson by 16 points. He's more conservative than Wilson, but also is a young Hispanic officeholder -- which carries appeal among Republicans, looking for fresh faces to emerge.

"I think we're waiting for Sanchez to see if we get an '08 repeat down here. A lot of people are expecting Sanchez to come in, I mean why not? He's got nothing to lose. He keeps the lieutenant governor thing ... if he loses he goes back to it," said New Mexico political blogger Joe Monahan.

Sanchez recently acknowledged that he is looking at the race, saying "folks here in the Roundhouse and across the state of New Mexico are saying consider this run for the U.S. Senate." He added that for now his main focus is on the legislative session and the state's budget, but he is leaving all options open.

Sanchez would be an attractive candidate to Republicans for a few reasons. First, New Mexico is a state with a significant and growing Hispanic population and electorate. It's clear that the GOP needs to make inroads with Hispanic voters, and having Sanchez, an influential Hispanic politician, on the ballot would likely help attract some Hispanic support for the GOP ticket.

"That's being talked about, because we've got a female Hispanic governor, the first one ever. That's the Republican model for the future, a lot of Republicans think," said Monahan. "It's a real plus for Sanchez. Maybe it helps him overcome some of his negatives."

CORRECTION: A previous version of this post gave the incorrect time period for Ensign's confession. It was June 2009.

Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., will not seek a third term, he announced at a press conference in Las Vegas Monday, bringing to an end a once-promising career beset by scandal and investigations.

"I have come to the most difficult decision I have ever made in my life," Ensign said. "I don't look at this as the end of a journey, but as another chapter in that journey."

Ensign, who admitted an extramarital affair with a former staffer in June 2009, said the strains a full-fledged campaign would have put on his family were simply too much to overcome. He acknowledged the affair likely cost him his job in the Senate.

"As I have learned through my mistake, there are consequences to sin," Ensign said. "I came to the conclusion that I couldn't put my family through it."

After serving as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and as head of the Republican Policy Committee, Ensign was considered a potential presidential contender, going so far as to make an initial swing through Iowa in 2009. But his stock plummeted after admitting an affair with a woman who served as his campaign treasurer, whose husband was also Ensign's top aide.

Both the woman and her husband were close friends of the senator and his wife. Ensign's parents subsequently paid the couple $96,000. The Department of Justice and Federal Election Commission both investigated Ensign over the payment before clearing Ensign of wrongdoing. But the Senate Ethics Committee was still in the midst of investigating the senator, and recently named a special counsel to the case.

Ensign said at the press conference that the Ethics Committee investigation had "zero effect" on his decision not to seek re-election.

The scandal ensured Ensign's seat would be competitive regardless of his decision on a third term, and many Republicans in Washington believe they have a better shot at holding the seat now that Ensign has decided against running again. The GOP establishment wants to see Rep. Dean Heller (R), who represents the vast northern reaches of the state, enter the race, though other contenders are likely to take a hard look at running.

Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.) is nearing a decision on a Senate run, and is leaning heavily towards launching a campaign, according to Arizona Republican operatives in the state.

The Arizona Republic reported over the weekend that he has tentatively set April 7 as the date he will announce his decision. If Franks enters the race, he sets up a social versus fiscal conservative primary battle with Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.).

"The popular opinion out here is that Congressman Franks is very heavily leaning towards running. If I were doing stats, I'd give him better than a 90 percent chance that he does run," Arizona Republican Party executive director Brett Mecum told Hotline On Call on Monday.

Franks, who tied as the most conservative member of the House in National Journal's recently released 2010 vote ratings, would run to the right of Flake on social issues. Recently, Franks said in an interview that if such a move could gain collective support, he would support an effort to impeach President Obama if the White House does not reverse its decision not to defend the Defense of Marriage Act.

Franks would also have an immediate base of conservative support in the state. Maricopa County GOP Chair Rob Haney, an influential figure in the state's conservative movement who has expressed dissatisfaction with Flake's views on immigration, recently penned an email encouraging supporters to contact Franks' office to let him know how much support he'd have if he enters the race.

Sen. Mike Lee (R) said in February that he will not make an endorsement in Utah's Republican Senate primary, declining to boost colleague Orrin Hatch's reputation with conservatives. But apparently that pledge of neutrality doesn't extend to another state's contested primary.

Lee is backing former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R), who is actively courting Tea Party voters and competing with Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R) for support from the conservative end of the party.

"I am proud to enthusiastically endorse Ted Cruz for the U.S. Senate," said Lee in an email distributed by Cruz's campaign Monday. "The 2010 election showed that voters are looking for strong, principled conservatives in the Senate. Money and the establishment aren't what they used to be; principle and message -- real conviction and a proven record -- matter much more."

That stands at stark odds with Lee's declaration in his home state. "It's not my intention to support any candidate until the Democratic process has had a chance to play itself out in Utah," Lee told MSNBC when he announced he wouldn't support Hatch in the primary.

That Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) is working to improve his image among Tea Partiers in Utah is no secret. Most recently, he voted against a continuing resolution that would avoid a government shutdown, getting to the right of even Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) on the issue.

But his aggressive outreach to the Tea Party comes as some in the movement remain staunchly dissatisfied with him, which suggests we'll see a growing divide among Tea Partiers in Utah.

The Salt Lake Tribune reports that Hatch recently courted two Tea Party activists at CPAC in Washington. While one was unimpressed, the other ended up accepting a job on Hatch's campaign recruiting delegates who will vote at the statewide convention next year. Hatch's campaign is paying organizers $2,500 per month to court support among delegates.

As my colleague Julie Sobel has previously reported, divisions have been laid bare even within the Tea Party Express when it comes to Hatch. And as the Tribune notes, Hatch's campaign has hired Evelyn Call and Julian Babbitt, who was chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus of Utah, a move that surprised the Tea Party community.

If Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) gets in the race, we may begin to see a greater share of Tea Party support coalesce around him. Hatch may prove to be an overall tough sell to the lion's share of Tea Partiers in the long term, especially if he attracts a more conservative opponent. Right now -- with no official alternative in the race -- may be his best opportunity to seal up what support he can.

But Hatch has to be careful, as his pitch does not come without the risk of a backlash from Tea Partiers who may come to resent him even more over time for his attempts to corral their support.

Welcome to Hotline On Call's newest feature, Hotline Sort. Every morning before dawn, we at The Hotline begin combing through newspapers from across the country -- from the Aberdeen American News to the Zanesville Times Recorder -- along with blogs, websites and Twitter as we search for and sort through the political stories that matter from all fifty states. We also mine for humorous tidbits we couldn't make up if we tried (we're looking at you, Maine whoopie pie debate).

Every weekday morning on this blog, we'll briefly list some of the bigger stories we come across and provide analysis in the context of the broader political landscape. In between, we hope you'll laugh once or twice at the lighter side of politics.

This blog is constantly evolving, and we welcome your input, news tips and suggestions at ssullivan@nationaljournal.com or in the comments section. Thanks for reading and we hope you'll make the Sort a part of your morning!

8) We weren't kidding about the whoopie pies. Here's the latest on that front.

7) Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) is set to announce her Senate bid today, and in an early sign of the way Democrats will go after her, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is out with a web video this morning reminding viewers of her 2008 loss to Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.) in the GOP primary.

6) FIRST ON THE SORT: Our Country Deserves Better, the Tea Party Express' parent group, has spent money on a radio ad in Milwaukee, according to their FEC filing, signaling that they won't be standing on the sidelines in the Badger State.

SNL's Seth Meyers gets to the central question of Newt Gingrich's possible 2012 presidential run, "Are voters still going by charisma or have they switched over to head size."

Jay Leno, on former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee attacking actress Natalie Portman for being pregnant and unmarried, "Of course this could make thing a little awkward if he runs into Sarah and Bristol Palin at Fox."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:45, Libyan ruler Muammar el-Qaddafi will do anything to raise funds.

Take out Late Night Poll after the jump!

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- This month's jobs report is yet another drip of good economic news for the White House. But rising instability in the Middle East raises the specter of an oil shock delaying the recovery. Trends in gas prices and the unemployment rate are more indicative of presidential election outcomes than any other economic indicators.

-- Sen. Daniel Akaka's (D-Hawaii) decision to retire is likely to cause a large pack of Democrats in the state to take a good look at the race. While the prospect of a divisive Democratic primary - with no obvious frontrunner or ideal candidate - is quite high, it isn't likely to impact the general election in a big way in a heavily Democratic state where Pres. Obama grew up and remains immensely popular. But former Gov. Linda Lingle and ex-Rep. Charles Djou could make a race interesting, forcing Democrats to at least pay attention to the Aloha State.

-- Republicans badly need to court the Hispanic vote in 2012, and New Mexico's Senate race is a critical cog in that outreach. Wilson is the early GOP establishment favorite, but conservative Latino lieutenant governor John Sanchez may be the one to watch. If he runs, keep close tabs on Gov. Susana Martinez's involvement.

-- Sen. Richard Lugar (R) isn't getting much help from high profile friends in his bid for a seventh term. Rep. Mike Pence (R) and Sen. Dan Coats (R) said this week that they would refrain from making endorsements in the primary contest between Lugar and Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R). With a divided state GOP, Lugar can use all the backing he can get from prominent Indiana conservatives. Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has told Mourdock he supports Lugar, but it's unclear how publicly he'll offer that support given that he's also weighing a presidential run.

This weekend we will see political programming zero in on the battle brewing in Congress over the budget. NBC's "Meet the Press" will talk with White House chief of staff Bill Daley about whether President Obama will play "deal-maker-in-chief" and compromise with the Republican-led House. Daley will also discuss the situation in Libya. "Meet" will speak with Tea Party Caucus head Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) about what she expects from her Republican leadership in the House during budget negotiations. Host David Gregory will also get her thoughts on the 2012 Republican presidential field.

CBS' "Face the Nation" discusses the escalating violence in Libya with Senate Foreign Relations Chair John Kerry (D-Mass.) and then turns to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to discuss how Senate Republicans plan to deal with the budget negotiations.

Over on cable, "FOX News Sunday" interviews Westboro Baptist Church attorney Margie Phelps following the controversial Supreme Court ruling this week. Then, host Chris Wallace discusses the continuing resolution and whether a compromise with Republicans on the budget is possible with Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas). "State of the Union" will sit down with Reps. Peter King (R-N.Y.) and Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) to discuss the Congressional hearings on the radicalization of Muslim Americans.

Get the complete listings after the jump.

"Maybe if I'd worn a duck costume instead of a tiger costume, some of this wouldn't be happening,"

--Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.), to NPR on his recent media blitz, answering questions about his mental state after he sent photos to his staff of himself in a tiger costume

Rep. Frank LoBiondo's former treasurer pleaded guilty Friday to embezzling nearly half a million dollars from the New Jersey Republican's campaign, admitting to writing himself checks from LoBiondo's campaign funds for 15 years.

Andrew McCrosson told the U.S. District Court he had written himself checks totaling $458,000 between 1995 and 2010. McCrosson faces a maximum of 20 years in federal prison for the first charge, according to the Press of Atlantic City, and another five years for the second charge.

McCrosson did not report the checks he wrote himself as expenditures, which violates Federal Election Commission rules. McCrosson filed fraudulent reports that overstated the campaign's cash on hand position.

In a statement, LoBiondo's campaign said they had taken action to bring McCrosson's actions to light.

"Late last year, the campaign contacted the appropriate federal authorities about this matter, and since that time has actively cooperated with their investigation. As reflected in the plea agreement, Mr. McCrosson's actions were an abuse of the trust placed in him by the campaign," said William McGinley, LoBiondo's campaign attorney.

McCrosson had cooperated with Justice Department officials, according to the assistant U.S. Attorney who prosecuted the case.

CORRECTION: The original version of this report gave the incorrect title for Kombiz Lavasany. He worked in online communications at the DNC.

Less than 24 hours after unveiling a website for his exploratory committee Thursday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) is already under attack online.

Gingrich launched NewtExplore2012.com yesterday, and ExploreNewt2012.com -- a slightly more intuitive name -- now redirects to former La. Gov. Buddy Roemer's (R) website, BuddyRoemer.com. "We had nothing to do with that. Please, I assure you," Roemer said in an interview today. He added that his and Gingrich's team spoke about the website issue this morning. Gingrich's team, Roemer said, believes that the domain name was purchased by someone in Arizona.

Gingrich's team is unconcerned about the redirect. "Yes, and Roemer spelled backward is the first-person singular present passive indicative of the Latin remeō," Gingrich spokesperson Rick Tyler said. "But I don't think that is going help him either."

But Gingrich's online troubles don't end there. Former DNC online communications staffer Kombiz Lavasany, who worked on the Democrats' 2008 presidential campaign strategy, purchased ExploreNewt.com and now has it redirecting to a May, 2009 Media Matters article about Gingrich that enumerates "his frequent, and often egregious, falsehoods."

"The problem with the Republican primary is that it's still run by not very smart general consultants who don't think about new media," Lavasany said. "And so when they set up these campaigns they don't think about how people search and find things online."

In a race where some state Republicans had been lamenting the lack of a competitive conservative candidate in the mold of businessman John Raese (R), businessman Bill Maloney (R) -- who helped develop the plan that freed 33 Chilean miners last year -- stands out.

The Republican primary field in the West Virginia gubernatorial race is mostly comprised of politicians and former politicians: apparent frontrunner and former Secretary of State Betty Ireland, state Sen. Clark Barnes, state Del. Mitch Carmichael, Putnam Co. prosecutor Mark Sorsaia; Westover Mayor Cliff Ellis and former Del. Larry Faircloth.

Then there's Maloney, who co-founded a drilling business in Morgantown in 1984 and had 150 employees when he sold his share in '06. And last year, Maloney worked with a company to develop "Plan B," the drilling technique that safely brought trapped Chilean miners to the surface after 69 days underground.

Maloney's campaign manager Matt Dabrowski said Maloney brings three things to the table that others in the Republican field lack.

"First, he's a real conservative," Dabrowski said. "Second is that he's a businessman, not a politician. And third, he's a job creator."

Maloney is branding himself as the conservative businessman in the race -- he sent out a press release Tuesday calling himself a "proven job creator and conservative Republican candidate" for governor. In the release, Maloney attacked acting Gov. (and gubernatorial candidate) Earl Ray Tomlbin (D) and other Charleston politicians on spending.

Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) announced Friday he will not run for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jim Webb (D), and once again expressed his hope that Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine, who is mulling a bid, will enter the race.

"I am flattered that some would consider me a potential candidate for the U.S. Senate, but there is much work to be done in the House and I love what I do, serving the citizens of the 11th District of Virginia," Connolly said in a statement.

"As I said in my recent speech at the Democratic Party of Virginia dinner in Richmond, Tim Kaine is a man of conviction and strong values. He has a passion for governing and understands the issues facing Virginia," Connolly added. "Tim is a public servant in the truest sense of the word. He would make a great U.S. Senator and I hope he decides to run."

Connolly is one of several Democrats whose name has been tossed around as a possibility for the race since Webb announced his decision not to run again in 2012. Other possibilities include former Reps. Tom Perriello and Rick Boucher, though Boucher -- who still has a substantial campaign war chest -- indicated earlier this week that it is unlikely he will run.

Here's an interesting possibility in the situation involving Indiana Secretary of State Charlie White (R), who was indicted Thursday on counts of voter fraud.

Democrats are flagging a statute they believe may be justification that the runner-up to White in 2010, Vop Osili (D), should assume office if White is removed or quits. The Indianapolis Star reports:

At stake: how a replacement would be selected if White resigns or is removed from office.

They claim the Recount Commission should have declared White ineligible to run because he wasn't legally registered to vote when he filed his candidacy in July.

If White leaves, and Osili were to take over - certainly two big ifs at this very early stage -- he would become the only Democrat selected through a statewide election in Indiana (Republicans swept the statewide races in 2010), yet another striking indication of the uphill climb Democrats face in a state President Obama won by less than 30,000 votes in 2008.

It also shows how barren the Dem bench is in the state - with no current officeholders in the statewide positions that are traditionally viewed as springboards to higher office - lieutenant governor, treasurer, attorney general - it's no wonder Democrats are having a difficult time fielding top flight candidates for the Senate and gubernatorial races.

Throughout the early stages of his campaign, Republican Phil Moffett, a Louisville businessman running for governor in Kentucky, has tried to portray himself as the heir apparent to Sen. Rand Paul (R). Moffett has espoused typical Tea Party positions and railed against the excesses and abuses of the establishment wing of the Republican party.

The comparison might not seem like much of a stretch. Like Paul, Moffett had never run for political office before launching his bid. Paul challenged a mainstream Republican in former Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who collected high profile endorsements from the likes of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Dick Cheney. In his own primary, Moffett faces Kentucky Senate President David Williams (R), a longtime fixture in the state's GOP establishment. Moffett even hired David Adams, who managed Paul's successful primary bid, to run his campaign.

"It's the same state. It's the same voter base, same volunteer base within the state," Adams said. "And kind of in the same wave in terms of voter sentiment."

But for all the similarities on the surface, most political experts say Moffett doesn't pose a serious threat to Williams in the race to determine the challenger to Gov. Steve Beshear (D). Here is a look at some of the factors that could prevent Moffett from repeating Paul's insurgent primary victory:

Name Recognition: While Paul had never held elective office before, he had almost immediate name recognition, thanks to his father, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas). Fresh off a presidential run, the elder Paul had established himself as a Tea Party icon by the time his son decided to run for Senate. Moffett, on the other hand, was a virtual unknown when he entered the gubernatorial race - and he remains so to many voters in the state.

The nation added 192,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reports this morning, breaking a long series of disappointing monthly employment reports and signaling that the economy continued to gain strength last month.

Private sector job growth clocked in at 222,000, the fastest pace since April of 2010 and only the second time since the recession began that that figure has come in at above 200,000. The public sector continued to lose employment, shedding 30,000 jobs in February.

The unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey, edged down below 9 percent for the first time in more than a year.

There were big gains in construction employment and manufacturing jobs in February, as each rose by 33,000.

The numbers were roughly in line with the buoyant expectations of many forecasters, who had expected a big jump today based on a wide variety of other indicators that pointed to stronger growth.

Stephen Colbert thinks Fox News set a bad precedence by suspending contributors Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, for signaling they might run for president.

Jay Leno, on former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee saying President Obama grew up in Kenya, "Remember when people accused Obama of being a secret Muslim, Huckabee could be a secret moron."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:17 when Colbert gets the inside scoop from Fox News. Then let us know who's next, in our Late Night Poll.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

The Census Bureau unveiled detailed demographic profiles of Kansas and Wyoming today, and like other states that historically were overwhelmingly white, both of these saw huge growth in their Hispanic populations.

-- Kansas' population grew by 6 percent in the last decade and it retained its four congressional seats. The state, like many other agricultural Midwestern and plains states, saw a shift from the rural areas to the small towns and a Hispanic boom: Latinos jumped from 7 percent to 10.5 percent of the state's population in the last decade, and make up large parts of the population in the meatpacking-heavy small towns in the east of the state, including majorities in Liberal and Dodge City. The state's biggest growth was in its small cities: the part of Kansas City not in Missouri lost population, as did nearly all of the rural counties.

Republicans are in control of redistricting here, as they were a decade ago, and hold all four House seats after Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder won the seat vacated by retiring Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore. The district, based around suburban Kansas City and stretching to include the University of Kansas, in Lawrence, is politically marginal, breaking narrowly for President Obama in 2008.

Republicans may look to shore up Yoder. But last time they redistricted, Lawrence civic leaders fought to keep the university in the same district as their hospital, which is located in Kansas City. The district will need to lose population, so the major question becomes whether legislators will move Lawrence to Republican Rep. Lynn Jenkins' district or leave it intact.

-- Wyoming's population grew by 14 percent since 2000 but it still remains sparsely populated, with one congressional district. The Hispanic population boomed here as well, accounting for a quarter of the state's growth, and almost 9 percent of the state is now Latino. The state's fastest growth came in Gillette, which grew by almost 50 percent as the oil, gas and minerals industry boomed, but no towns populations surpassed 60,000 people. The state remains overwhelmingly Republican; only Oklahoma supported Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign by a wider margin.

Carol Weston, the new state director for Americans for Prosperity-Maine and a former state representative and senator, is not ruling out a primary challenge to Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), though she told Hotline on Call that she's not thinking about a bid just yet.

"I've worked with Senator Snowe in many different ways and I served in the House and the Senate here in Maine and certainly now in my job with Americans for Prosperity I do rein in and lobby her, and over the years I have found there are times when we certainly do disagree," said Weston. "But I also want to make sure that whoever may run against her in a primary will also have the financial support and the backing of the Maine people to win the general election. And that's something that needs some careful consideration by anyone considering running."

And Weston says she's not in that consideration phase yet.

"I'm certainly not saying absolutely not, but I certainly am being honest when I say it is not on my radar screen right now," she said.

The filing deadline to run for governor in Mississippi came and went without fanfare earlier this week, as four Democrats and five Republicans filed the requisite paperwork by the Tuesday deadline.

Blink, and you might have missed Republican activist James Broadwater's name on the list. You may remember him as a candidate for Congress in 2004 and 2008.

You may also remember him from somewhere else.

An astute reader points out that Broadwater once appeared on an episode of British comedian Sacha Baron Cohen's "Da Ali G Show." In the popular HBO satirical show -- which ended its run in 2006 -- Baron Cohen played various characters and interviewed unwitting politicians, policymakers and regular people.

In one segment, Baron Cohen interviews Broadwater as "Borat" -- a television personality from Kazakhstan -- and accompanies him on a neighborhood canvass.

"He is a strong man. He will crush his opponents and he will be powerful like Stalin, and not tolerate people who are bad," Baron Cohen, in character, says of Broadwater to one woman.

"Well, actually, I wouldn't compare myself to Stalin," Broadwater responds, quietly.

In one scene, Baron Cohen asks if followers of Judaism will go to heaven or hell, to which Broadwater responds, "well, I would have to say that they would go to hell."

"I have been made aware that an interview that was done with me was played on HBO last night, and that it has been used to make Christians look bad and to make me look like a person who hates Jews," Broadwater reportedly later said in a statement after the episode aired. "I don't watch HBO, but I definitely got duped by them back before the March Primary."

You can watch the full video of the segment after the jump.

During the 2010 midterms, Republicans dealt with a handful of divisive primaries where Republican voters split support between the establishment favorites running against more-ideologically oriented outsiders.

But with Sen. Daniel Akaka's (D-Hawaii) retirement announcement creating a Senate opening in Hawaii for the first time in over 20 years, Democrats could well be facing a messy primary of their own. In fact, Democrats have had a history of nasty spats in two recent Aloha State primaries - suggesting another colorful contest may well ensure in 2012.

The 2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary pitted former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann against longtime Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Hannemann ran to the more liberal Abercrombie's right in a race that remained competitive throughout the summer. But the campaign took a heated turn toward the end, and negative campaigning, mostly from Hannemann, swung a lot of votes in favor of Abercrombie, who eventually pulled away, winning by over 20 points.

A Hannemann mailer that received a lot of attention late in the race was denounced by critics for having racial undertones, and even prompted criticism from Sen. Daniel Inouye (D). Abercrombie also went on offense, hitting Hannemann with a negative radio ad. Inouye later interjected again, urging both candidates to keep it cordial and focus on policy differences.

In 2006, Akaka faced then-Rep. Ed Case in a combative Democratic primary. The race became a battle between Case's argument for a transition to a new generation of representation and the Democratic establishment in the state, who backed Akaka. Inouye provided substantial financial support to help Akaka fend off Case in a race the incumbent won by just over 9 points.

Abercrombie's resounding victory in the 2010 gubernatorial primary served as a sign that Democratic voters in the state have a very small appetite for attacks perceived as nasty or overly negative. Democratic candidates who enter the race to replace Akaka will have to be mindful of how their offensive game is perceived, lest they suffer the same fate as the former Honolulu mayor.

Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) Free and Strong America PAC announced today the addition of Andrea Saul, a communications veteran of prominent campaigns -- including a brief stint as media director for former Fla. Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) Senate bid.

Fresh off her role as press secretary for 2010 California Senate nominee Carly Fiorina (R), Saul's resume also includes similar positions for McCain-Palin in 2008, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), and the Republican National Committee. She quit Crist's Senate campaign when the then-governor left the Republican Party to run as an independent.

As Romney primes for a second presidential run, Saul could be a top contender for his communications team. Still, Kevin Madden, who ran Romney's press room for his 2008 White House bid, says Saul's involvement doesn't preclude the possibility that he'll reprise his role in 2012.

"The hiring is related to the PAC since [there's been] no announcement on a campaign yet," Madden said in an e-mail. "I'm a supporter of the Governor and have advised the PAC on an informal basis, but no decisions have been made with regard to any role I'd have in a campaign that hasn't yet been announced."

The Census Bureau released detailed data for three more states this week: North Carolina, Nebraska, and Delaware. North Carolina is one of Republicans' best opportunities for redistricting success. All three states, which have major agricultural industries, saw significant growth in their Hispanic communities, as many Latinos moved in for meatpacking and poultry jobs.

-- North Carolina's population grew by 18.5% in the last decade, but it did not gain another congressional seat. Much of the state saw substantial growth, with huge population gains in the areas around the Research Triangle (near the college campuses of Duke, UNC, Wake Forest and NC State) and greater Charlotte. The state's African American population grew proportionately and remains at 21% of the state population, and the Latino population more than doubled. Hispanics now make up more than 8% of the state's population.

The growth in the state's more liberal areas, especially the Research Triangle, likely helped Democrats in the latter part of the decade, as Gov. Bev Perdue, Sen. Kay Hagan and President Obama all won in a state that had in the past leaned Republican. Obama's narrow win in North Carolina was the first for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter won there in 1976.

But Democrats' gains at the statewide level unraveled in 2010, and a state that had long gone for Republicans in federal races and Democrats in local races may be moving away from both traditions. While only one of the four Democratic House members who faced tough races last fall lost, the state House and Senate flipped to the GOP, the first time since 1868 the Republicans have controlled the state Senate.

When President Obama moved last week to declare the Defense of Marriage Act "unconstitutional" and instruct the Department of Justice to cease defending the 15-year-old law in court, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) emerged as Obama's quickest and most vocal critic, claiming his judgment was "driven by politics."

While Santorum may have a legitimate grievance, he shouldn't be complaining -- in fact, he ought to be thanking the president. For as morally questionable as Santorum may find Obama's decision, its political reverberations will be clearly felt in the Republican presidential primary contest -- and no candidate stands to benefit more than Santorum.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its Frontline list of incumbents it's most focused on protecting - but for many members on the list, the DCCC won't be able to help them much.

At least nine of the 15 Democrats on the list face the real prospect of running in districts much less favorable to them after the redistricting process is complete. Outside of lobbying on their behalf to state legislative leaders (or hiring lobbyists to protect their members' interests), there's little the DCCC can do to keep their districts safer, other than help them raise money.

The fifteen Democrats on the Frontline list are: Reps. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.), Leonard Boswell (D-Iowa), Russ Carnahan (D-Mo.), Ben Chandler (D-Ky.), Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), Mark Critz (D-Pa.), Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), Larry Kissell (D-N.C.), Jim Matheson (D-Utah), Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.), Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.), Bill Owens (D-N.Y.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), and Tim Walz (D-Minn.).

Boswell, Carnahan, Critz, Kissell, Matheson, McIntyre, McNerney, Owens, and Peters are all regularly ranked as Democrats who face serious threats from redistricting. Republicans control the redistricting process in all the states they represent, except Iowa (where one district was lost in reapportionment), California (where a nonpartisan panel could dramatically alter the Congressional lines) and New York (divided government).

The Frontline program has always been a critical part of the House Democrats' campaign infrastructure, supporting and expanding their fundraising and outreach operations and offering a signal to the lobbying community who's the most at risk.

But in a redistricting cycle, their efforts won't matter nearly as much for many of these members as in the past. The best friends for most of the Frontliners: the state legislative leaders in their home states.

David Letterman goes after Donald Trump for putting on a few extra pounds, "I thought 'Woah, Donald's putting up another building'."

Jon Stewart regrets that he, "suckled nectar from [Libyan leader Muammar el-Qaddafi's] sweet entertainment budget teet."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:04. Fox anchor Megyn Kelly and Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y, have chemistry.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) owes his Wisconsin gubernatorial colleague Scott Walker (R) some serious gratitude. While nearly all the media attention and labor activism has been centered in Madison over Walker's controversial budget bill, Kasich is on the verge of passing an equally significant bill restraining collective bargaining rights in the Buckeye State.

The bill passed the state Senate by the narrowest possible margin - and now is virtually assured of being signed into law by the governor next week. It's awfully similar to the legislation Walker has struggled to pass, in a more politically-consequential state for the 2012 presidential battle. The bill would make Ohio the first state to strip collective bargaining rights from public employees.

Ohio is a labor stronghold and union political clout has been central to Democratic successes there - without the same level of union money and organization, Democrats would have a much tougher time carrying it in the upcoming presidential election. It's also home to what should be a hotly-contested Senate race, with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) seeking a second term.

The fact that Kasich beat Walker to the punch has a lot to do with the inordinate attention the Wisconsin governor is receiving - at least compared to the legislative battle in Columbus. But if this is the first victory of many Republican battles against big labor to come, Kasich will soon be outshining Walker in GOP circles for a long time to come.

While the budget debate rages in Washington, Members of Congress are not optimistic that entitlement reform will be part of the equation for reigning in the federal debt--at least not in the near term--according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Members of Congress in both parties say that a government shutdown would hurt their party, but Republicans are more pessimistic than Democrats about the consequences, according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) announced Wednesday he will not seek re-election in 2012, becoming the fifth senator who caucuses with the Democrats -- and the seventh overall -- to announce their retirement this cycle.

"After months of thinking about my political future, I am announcing today that I have decided not to run for re-election in 2012. As many of you can imagine, it was a very difficult decision for me. However, I feel that the end of this Congress is the right time for me to step aside. It has been a great honor and privilege to serve the people of Hawaii," Akaka said in a statement. "In 2006, the people of Hawaii gave me an opportunity to continue my service in the United States Senate and I fully intend to serve the last two years of my term in office."

Akaka's announcement comes amid a broader effort by Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray to push wavering incumbents to make quick decisions about re-election.

"Senator Akaka has served this country with distinction for his entire adult life. All Americans are grateful for his service. He will be missed, but Democrats will absolutely keep his seat," Murray said in a statement.

Akaka's slow fundraising pace coupled with his age -- he will turn 87 this year -- have caused many observers in recent weeks to question whether he would run again. In a local interview last week, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) even warned that he would not be able to offer Akaka as much help this cycle as he has in the past.

Democrats have a deep bench in the state, and there are several candidates who may be interested in running for the seat, including former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz, Reps. Mazie Hirono and Colleen Hanabusa and former Rep. Ed Case, among others.

The New York Conservative Party could pick their nominee for the 26th District special as early as this week, and after sitting down with Iraq War veteran David Bellavia on Wednesday the party's chairman still sounds sold on Assemblywoman Jane Corwin, who got the GOP nod last week.

"We had a good meeting. He's a pleasant individual. [Bellavia] laid out his case and I discussed with him some of what I see as his problems," Conservative Party Chairman Michael Long told Hotline On Call. "I made it very clear that I felt that [Corwin] had a leg up on him because she's had our endorsement before."

Corwin has been endorsed by the party in her previous state races, and according to their legislative rankings she is the second most conservative lawmaker in Albany. Long also pointed to the fact that the Monroe County Conservative Party voted last week to endorse Corwin as another positive for her campaign.

Long said the party's executive committee, who will make the decision, could meet later this week or early next week to vote on their nominee, in part so that no one is "looking over their shoulders" and "so that we can clarify where we stand."

After being passed over for the Republican Party nomination, Bellavia has said he would try to run on the Conservative Party line, but also hasn't ruled out petitioning onto the ballot to run in the yet-to-be-called special election to succeed former Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y.), who quickly resigned last month after a report that the married congressman had replied to a personal ad on Craigslist with a shirtless muscle photo of himself.

In an interview with Hotline On Call, Bellavia still struck a positive tone after his meeting with Long, saying he felt the Conservative Party's process has been more open and fair than the Republicans', which Bellavia and his supporters have said happened too quickly.

"I was impressed that he took the meeting, that he honored his word," said Bellavia. "I had a really good talk with him for over an hour. Thus far, it's been a pretty fresh breath of air."

Seeking to burnish his conservative credentials, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) voted against a continuing resolution that would avoid a government shutdown - joining just eight other senators, including Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah). It's the latest move from Hatch, facing the prospect of a tough fight for the GOP nomination, catering to his party's base of activists.

Hatch even managed to out-conservative tea party stalwart Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), who cast his vote for the legislation.

"The cuts in this bill are a start, but don't go far enough to bring fiscal sanity back to Washington," Hatch said in a statement. "Our national debt is more than $14 trillion and will hurt our economy and mortgage the future of our children and grandchildren unless we act now to put the brakes on this runaway spending."

It's worth noting that Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), a possible Hatch primary challenger, voted for the House version of the legislation.

And Hatch has ratcheted up his red-meat rhetoric this past week. During a Friday appearance at Utah State University, he called the federal health care bill "a one-size-fits-all federal government dumb-ass program" and "an awful piece of crap," before apologizing for swearing and saying he would "repent" for it. He also showed up at a FreedomWorks party Tuesday night.

Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer (R) will announce Thursday he will explore a bid for president, according to a top Republican source.

Roemer is already scheduled to head to Waukee, Iowa, for a forum hosted by the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition on Monday. He will announce an exploratory committee on Thursday at the Baton Rouge bank he runs, according to WAFB-TV.

Roemer served four terms in Congress as a Democrat between 1981 and 1988 before being elected governor in 1987. He switched parties to become a Republican in 1991, then lost a gubernatorial primary as a Republican to former Ku Klux Klansman David Duke.

Earlier this year, Roemer said he was "doing my homework" in advance of a possible presidential run. "I'm getting ready to make my case with the American people," he told the Monroe News Star in an interview in January.

On Monday, Roemer will join former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Sen. Rick Santorum, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, businessman and radio host Herman Cain and other potential White House contenders at the event for social conservatives just outside Des Moines.

Lately, it seems the Pauls are raising their profile in the Hawkeye State.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) will be in Iowa to be the keynote speaker at the Iowa Republican Party's "Night of the Rising Stars" event on April 2 in Des Moines, state Republican Party chairman Matt Strawn announced Wednesday.

The event is a fundraiser for the state party that is also billed as a showcase for Iowa's newly elected GOP leaders. But Paul's spokesperson is cautioning not to read too much into the trip.

"Senator Paul is going Iowa to do two things: Talk about his book, 'The Tea Party Goes to Washington,' and then to help talk about what the Tea Party is looking for in 2012. He is hoping to start a conversation, and is not running for anything," Paul spokesperson Gary Howard said.

Meanwhile, Rand Paul's father, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), who has kept the door ajar for another presidential bid, will be in the state later this month for a lecture series with conservative group "The Family Leader."

My colleague Juliana Gruenwald is reporting at National Journal's Tech Daily Dose blog that former Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.) indicated today that he is unlikely to run for retiring Sen. Jim Webb's (D-Va.) seat and hopes DNC chairman Tim Kaine enters the race.

Boucher said that while he's not ruling anything out, "I'm not giving any active thought" to running for the Senate seat.

Boucher is coming off a 2010 loss to Rep. Morgan Griffith (R). But should he change his mind or decide to run for another office, it's worth noting that he still had a robust $686,000 cash on hand in his campaign account at the end of the 2010, according to his campaign finance report.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has hired Matt Canter to become its new communications director beginning on March 14.

Canter comes to the DSCC from the office of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), where he has served as communications director. Before that, Canter served as communications director to former Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle (D) and on Sen. Jeff Merkley's (D-Ore.) campaign.

"Matt Canter knows how to win tough races. He is one of the best communication professionals in the field and he joins our team at a time where we have strong pick-up opportunities across the country," said DSCC executive director Guy Cecil.

"Senator Murray has laid out a smart, aggressive strategy for preserving Democratic seats and electing new Democratic Senators in states across the country. I am extremely excited to join her team and go to the mat helping Democratic Senators and new candidates in states across the country," Canter said.

Canter is replacing Eric Schultz, who served as communications director for the DSCC during the 2010 cycle.

Just two months into his first term, Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) has skyrocketed to national prominence, but he's already limiting himself to just four terms in Congress.

The retired Army colonel smashed fundraising records as he defeated Rep. Ron Klein (D-Fla.) last year, but it was his bombastic, frank style that made him a magnet for headlines. A favorite of the tea party, he even snagged the closing speaking slot at last month's Conservative Political Action Conference.

But it's that bluntness even as he sits in a swing district that makes West one of the top targets heading into 2012. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel was in West's Ft. Lauderdale district last week recruiting challengers, but West told National Journal in an interview this week that he welcomed the challenge from Democrats, and that he's using the speculation of his vulnerability to his advantage.

"It's already helping my fundraising," said West. "I welcome that. I thrive on the environment of competition."

Even as he's certainly eyeing a second term, West said he would serve no more than eight years in the House, decrying the Washington culture as an "insular world."

"The longer you are here, the more out of touch you are," said West.

And while he says he's perplexed over the media's fascination with him - "for some reason, the media has given me a national profile," West noted - he's not shying away from the nationwide requests he's gotten, and will soon headline state GOP gatherings in Georgia, North Carolina, and even the local District of Columbia Republicans.

Donald Trump is continuing to reach out to conservatives, making a guest appearance on Rush Limbaugh's radio show Tuesday, sparking further speculation about how seriously he is weighing a presidential bid.

It's worth noting that Limbaugh rarely features guests on his program, yet Trump appeared on the show to talk about his possible presidential ambitions, saying "I've seen what's happened to this country. We're no longer respected," when asked by Limbaugh why he is considering a run for the White House.

Trump has taken several steps over the last few weeks to better position himself and at least leave the door open for a run, delivering a fiery speech at CPAC, doing an interview with a New Hampshire television station and maintaining an active media presence. He's repeatedly asked about his presidential ambitions, yet he's done nothing to definitively shoot down the chatter, moving further toward a bid than he has in the past.

While Trump would be a decided underdog if he were to enter the GOP race, his personal wealth would present a big variable in the contest, depending on how much of his own money he would be willing to invest in a campaign.

If Trump does run, at least one person would be eager to watch him in a debate.

"I would love to see a debate on economics between Trump and Obama," Limbaugh said at the end of the interview. "Mr. 'Scholar,' Mr. Faculty Lounge Extraordinaire versus Mr. Real World Builder. I would love to see that. Obama wouldn't even get out his first sentence by the time Trump had given ten answers. "

Here's the latest sign of the Democratic party's monumental struggles in the deep South: The party failed to get a single candidate on the ballot for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, or auditor in Mississippi, after the state's filing deadline arrived Tuesday.

That's a striking result for the party, which despite the state's conservative politics, has competed effectively in statewide contests. Before last year's Republican landslide, Democrats actually controlled majorities in the state Senate and state House - and even held three of the state's four Congressional seats. (They now only hold the state House, and one of the state's four Congressional seats.)

But the failure to even land a candidate for three important statewide posts illustrates the uphill battle Democrats face in the deep South.

Four Democrats filed for the state's marquee matchup - the governor's race, where Republican lieutenant governor Phil Bryant starts out as an early frontrunner, due to his fundraising advantage. Joining him in the GOP field are businessman Dave Dennis, Pearl River County Supervisor Hudson Holiday, Ron Williams, who is running on a conservative Christian platform, and Tea Party activist James Broadwater.

The four Democrats are Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, attorney Bill Luckett, Guy Shaw and William Compton, who ran in 2007. Luckett appears to have a financial leg up on the field, as his most recent financial disclosure report showed him having over $350,000 cash on hand at the end of 2010.

The primaries will take place on August 2.

CORRECTION: Democrats held three House seats in Mississippi before the 2010 midterms, they now hold one -- the seat of Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.)

Jon Stewart wants to know when Republicans are going to start running for White House 2012, "So we have a socialist, Muslim president, subverting the Constitution and the will of the people of America. Who's got first dibs on that can of corn?"

Officials are saying that Libyan leader Muammar el-Qaddafi is disconnected from reality. Conan O'Brien: "In fact, according to the State Department, Qaddafi thought this year's Oscars were fantastic."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:56 for Stewart's impression of Donald Trump.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is lagging behind other prospective Republican presidential candidates in Southern states, according to new polling, presenting an obstacle for the nominal front-runner for the party's nomination.

A new Winthrop University survey, measuring public opinion in 11 Southern states, shows former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as the preferred choice, winning 22 percent of the vote among probable primary voters. Romney is way back in fifth place with just seven percent, leading only lesser-known candidates like former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Georgian, is in second with 13 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is third, at nine percent, while New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has said he won't run for president in 2012, is fourth with eight percent.

The Winthrop poll surveyed only 256 probable Republican primary voters in the South and carries a relatively high margin of error of +/- 6.1%.

The Winthrop poll was conducted the week after a Gallup poll showed Romney in a virtual tie with Huckabee and Palin nationally, though Huckabee had a double-digit lead in the South. Huckabee drew 18 percent of the national vote in the Gallup poll, but his vote share surged to 25 percent of Republicans in Southern states. Romney, meanwhile, saw his support slip from 16 percent nationally to 13 percent in the South, according to the Gallup poll.

Huckabee's lead in the South isn't surprising, since he hails from the region and finished a close second in 2008 to the eventual GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, in the first-in-the-South primary in South Carolina.

But Romney ran fairly well in 2008 in many of the states included in the surveys. He drew 15 percent of the vote in South Carolina, finishing fourth behind McCain, Huckabee and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee. Romney finished a close second to McCain in Florida with 31 percent of the vote. Romney also earned 30 percent of the vote in the South's biggest Super Tuesday prize three years ago, Georgia -- narrowly edged by Huckabee (34 percent) and McCain (31 percent).