April 2011

Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) announced Friday that he intends to call a special election in the state's 2nd Congressional District to be held on September 13, 2011.

"With an election in early September, Nevada will have a full voice as the House begins its work this fall," Sandoval said in a statement.

Earlier this week, Sandoval announced his intention to appoint Rep. Dean Heller (R) to serve the remainder of embattled Sen. John Ensign's (R) term. Heller's upcoming departure will trigger the special election. Ensign, who was under investigation by a Senate Ethics Committee over his conduct in an affair with a married aide, announced last week that he will resign on May 3.

Special election protocol remains unclear. The state could hold a free-for-all election for all candidates, or allow the state party committees to choose their nominees. This will be the first House special election in state history and the law is murky. On Monday morning in Carson City, Secretary of State Ross Miller (D), who determines procedure, will announce his interpretation.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) announced on Friday that he will sign into law a controversial measure that both tightens the state's abortion laws and bans federal Medicaid money from funding Planned Parenthood, bringing to an end 48 hours of rampant speculation over the bill's fate and, as a corollary, Daniels' political future.

"I supported this bill from the outset, and the recent addition of language guarding against the spending of tax dollars to support abortions creates no reason to alter my position," Daniels said in a statement. "The principle involved commands the support of an overwhelming majority of Hoosiers, as reflected in greater than 2:1 bipartisan votes in both legislative chambers."

Planned Parenthood has indicated that it will seek an immediate injunction if and when the bill becomes law.

Daniels, who is expected to announce as soon as next week whether or not he'll run for president in 2012, has been eyed with suspicion by many social conservatives since his proposal last summer that Americans call a temporary "truce" over social issues to focus on fixing the nation's fiscal problems. His decision to sign the bill, which could assuage the concerns of many social conservative voters, could be the clearest indication yet that Daniels has his eye on the White House.

Some Indianapolis Republicans feared that Daniels, who is known to prioritize his state's fiscal health above partisan and ideological quarreling, would be reluctant to sign the legislation due to the fact that it could cost Indiana up to $4 million in federal funding due to federal laws that prohibit states from selectively allocating funds to agencies that serve Medicaid recipients.

As Americans watch the celebration of the royal wedding in the United Kingdom and celebrities arrive in D.C. for the White House Correspondents Association Dinner, the weekend political affairs shows will address unresolved issues and the ever changing political environment as well as the tornado devastation in the South.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) will be on NBC's "Meet the Press" to talk about the GOP's leading 2012 candidates as well as the GOP budget plan and the effect of the Tea Party on the general election. White House senior adviser David Axelrod, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R), and NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will have a conversation about the 2012 landscape and the effect that businessman Donald Trump (R) is having on it. Finally, Saturday Night Live's head writer and WHCA Dinner host Seth Meyers will talk about hosting the event.

On CBS' "Face the Nation," Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is returning to the United States from Libya and will discuss the situations in the Middle East as well as politics at home. Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley (R) will provide an update on the destruction in Alabama. Following Bentley, moderator Bob Schieffer will talk about the rise of birtherism and racism with the roundtable.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) will join ABC's "This Week" to address his controversial budget plan with host Christiane Amanpour.

On cable with CNN, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) will talk about budget plans and former Bush Administration National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley and former Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) will discuss security concerns.

On Fox News Sunday, as the 2012 Republican field takes shape, host Chris Wallace will talk to Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) about her role as a Tea Party favorite. Sens. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) will discuss the prospect of several Democrats voting against the debt limit.

And on Sunday at 9 pm, CNN will air "Unthinkable: The Alzheimer's Epidemic" hosted by Larry King. King will be joined by people who have been impacted by Alzheimer's disease in their lives like former First Lady Laura Bush and son of President Ronald Reagan, Ron Reagan.

Get the full listings after the jump.

It looks like Democrats have a tailor-made issue to use in next month's special election in New York's 26th District -- GOP Rep. Paul Ryan's budget plan.

The new Siena poll in the district shows seniors strongly oppose changing entitlement programs, and view President Obama relatively favorably.

It's the latest sign that Democrat Kathy Hochul has a fighting chance at winning next month's special election against Republican Jane Corwin. Hochul leads Corwin among voters aged 55 and over, 36 to 33 percent, with third-party candidate Jack Davis taking 23 percent.

Hochul has been attacking Corwin for supporting the GOP-backed budget plan that would alter federal entitlement programs. Davis, running on a Tea Party line, also opposes the plan.

While seniors across the country view Obama more negatively than any other age group, according to polling, in this Northeastern district, seniors view him more favorably. Overall, Obama has a 39 percent approval rating in the district, but the number improves to 46 percent among those 55 and over.

The poll also contains some encouraging news for the GOP: It shows seniors siding with Republicans when asked which party's approach they preferred on fiscal issues. A near 49 percent majority said they supported "Boehner and the Republicans" while 39 percent said they supported "Obama and the Democrats." Among seniors, Obama holds a 46 percent approval rating in the district, while Boehner's approval rating is at 44 percent.

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, the retiring U.S. Ambassador to China, will be huddling with potential campaign advisers aligned with the political committee formed in his absence -- Horizon PAC -- on Monday, according to a key supporter. Huntsman, whose term as ambassador expires at midnight, returned to Washington Friday, quickly switching gears from diplomat to possible presidential candidate.

Federal law precludes a member of the administration from engaging in campaign activities, so the team has literally had no contact with the man they want to run for president.

His immediate plans also include attending the White House Correspondents Dinner on Saturday evening.

Huntsman's first scheduled forays into early primary states will come next month, when he delivers college commencement speeches in South Carolina on May 7 and New Hampshire on May 21. Those two states, along with Florida, are thought to be pivotal to any campaign strategy Huntsman might employ.

Prominent Democratic strategists, including two former top aides to President Obama, are formally launching independent committees aimed at countering the onslaught of outside Republican organizations expected to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the 2012 presidential campaign.

Priorities USA and Priorities USA Action, the two companion committees, hope to raise $100 million to defend Obama, organizers said, an amount that will allow them to run ads competing with American Crossroads, the American Action Network, and other Republican-backing outside organizations.

The organization will not live up to the same campaign finance standards by which Obama has pledged to run its campaign. They will take unregulated donations that do not require disclosure; Obama and Capitol Hill Democrats have railed against Crossroads and other Republican groups that do the same thing. The organizers said the 2010 Supreme Court decision in Citizens United, opening the door to unlimited corporate contributions, left them no choice.

The effort is being led by the president's former deputy press secretary, Bill Burton, and Sean Sweeney, who was a top aide to former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. Paul Begala and Geoff Garin, two long-time advisers to Bill Clinton, will serve on the group's leadership team.

The formation of the new committees suggests that Democrats recognize they are behind the eight ball in an important area of campaign finance law.

Democrats appear eager not just to match the conservative outside-group infrastructure but to exceed it. Another part of the plan: American Bridge 21st Century, which is modeled after the watchdog group Media Matters, will serve as a sort of "war room" of opposition research, feeding its three sister organizations material that they can use in independent expenditures, while pressing traditional media outlets for coverage.

Read the full story on Nationaljournal.com

-- Alex Roarty contributed to this post

Republicans and Democrats are hammering each other with competing Medicare and budget ads this recess, but in two districts where the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced buys last week, the National Republican Congressional Committee succeeded in getting some of the language tweaked.

In an April 25 memo obtained by Hotline On Call, NRCC General Counsel Jessica Furst wrote to members of the House Republican conference that in their "endeavors to fight back against the mischaracterization of Republican efforts to cut spending and lower the debt," the NRCC "was able to persuade" Texas radio station KXTN and a Time Warner cable affiliate in Columbus, Ohio, not to run the ads.

"The advertisements wrongfully claimed the plan would 'end Medicare.' The stations agreed that it was misleading and inaccurate to say that Rep. Paul Ryan's budget plan would end Medicare, and refused to run the advertisements making that claims,' Furst wrote.

A special election in New York's 26th Congressional District is a much closer contest than once thought, with Republican Jane Corwin leading Democrat Kathy Hochul by only five points in a new poll released early Friday.

Corwin, a state assemblywoman, takes 36 percent support in the Siena College poll, while Hochul, the Erie County Clerk, draws 31 percent. Wealthy businessman Jack Davis, a former Democrat running as a Tea Party candidate, earns the backing of 23 percent of likely voters, and his support appears to come at the expense of both major-party candidates; 20 percent of Democrats and 24 percent of Republicans support Davis.

Blogger Ian Murphy, running on the Green Party line, earns just one percent, and nine percent of voters are undecided with less than a month to go until the special election on May 24.

Democrats have been downplaying their chances in the district, which spans from the Rochester suburbs to the outskirts of Buffalo. The media often leaps upon special election results as indicators of the national political atmosphere, even though most strategists agree those special elections are hardly indicative of wider trends. But such close polling results opens both sides to the risk of losing; Democrats face an uphill fight in the district, one of just four in the state to have favored John McCain over President Obama in 2008.

The new survey suggests the race is eminently winnable, which could force both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee to get involved. And if they get involved, the losing side takes the blame, no matter how harsh the political climate.

Corwin and Hochul have identical favorable/unfavorable splits, suggesting that they are known by roughly the same number of voters. Both candidates are viewed favorably by 44 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 31 percent. A quarter of likely voters has no opinion of each candidate.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Obama trails Mitt Romney by seven points in a new New Hampshire poll, another presidential contender drops out of the debate in South Carolina while another says he's going, and one Democratic Senate candidate makes some makes some serious staffing moves in the Silver State (and it's probably not who you think). Here's today's rundown:

9) Former White House staffers Bill Burton and Sean Sweeney announced the formation of Priorities USA and Priorities USA Action, outside groups that plan to raise and spend millions to assist President Obama and Democratic candidates in the 2012 election.

Like its conservative equivalent, American Crossroads, the group will be able to raise unlimited money from outside donors and won't be required to disclose where the money is coming from - even though Obama publicly criticized such groups during the 2010 midterms. Democratic strategist Paul Begala will be advising the group.

"While we agree that fundamental campaign finance reforms are needed, Karl Rove and the Koch brothers cannot live by one set of rules as our values and our candidates are overrun with their hundreds of millions of dollars. We will follow the rules as the Supreme Court has laid them out, but the days of the double standard are over," said Burton.

8) 2010 Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne will be toasted as "Conservative of the Year" by Americans for Prosperity in New Hampshire today, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) and Herman Cain (R) are slated to attend a dinner in his honor and a forum on spending and job creation.

Jay Leno thinks the tables have turned on businessman Donald Trump, "Today Obama demanded that Donald Trump not only produce his birth certificate but the actual silver spoon he was born with."

Stephen Colbert finds a loophole that will let him form Colbert PAC.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 00:15 when Fox News takes the opportunity to say, 'We told you so.'

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

The Members Team put on an impressive display Thursday evening, winning The Hotline's third annual Political Pursuit competition at the Newseum.

With 240 points, the Members defeated the Press Pass Team, who finished second with 180 points. The Hotline Insiders Team finished third with 135 points.

Full team rosters and more photos after the jump!

The Hotline's third annual Political Pursuit event is happening right now at at the Newseum. Stay tuned to Hotline On Call as we follow it live.

A recap of the three teams: The Hotline Insiders: (Rob Autry, Public Opinion Strategies; Paul Begala, CNN; Kiki McLean, Porter Novelli Public Services; Steve Lombardo, Lombardo Consulting Group, LLC). The Press Pass Team: (Dana Bash, CNN; Mark Preston, CNN; Chuck Todd, NBC News; Amy Walter, ABC News). Members Only Team: (Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska); Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.); former Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.); Deloitte & Touche LLP; former Rep. Martin Frost (D-Texas), Polsinelli Shughart PC).

8:42 -- 5th round -- final question for (a 20 pointer!) Which state AG switched from Dem to GOP leaving no remaining statewide Dem constitutional officers? Louisiana AG Buddy Caldwell.

8:41 -- 4th round scoreboard check:
Members: 220
Insiders: 135
Press Pass: 160

8:35 -- Sen. Begich displays his superior knowledge of Alaskan universities -- which college did Sarah Palin not attend? Sen. Begich guessed Mat-Su College; answer was University of Alaska-Anchorage ... But as Begich points out, Mat-Su is a part of Univ. of Alaska-Anchorage. Ruling on the field?

8:25 p.m. -- Third round scoreboard check:
Members: 180
Press Pass: 145
Insiders: 100

8:22 p.m. -- George Romney resigned as Michigan Gov. to assume what what position in the Nixon Admin? Members Team's Rep. Davis gets this one. After some initial hesitation, he answers just in time ... HUD Sec.!

8:17 p.m. -- Which two states did President Obama win in 2008 that no Democrat had won since '64? Press Pass' Chuck Todd without hesitation: Indiana and Virginia. Ice water in his veins...

8:14 p.m. -- Hotline quizmaster Quinn McCord on the mic. Top of round 3 (a buzzer round): know your Senate history.

8:04 p.m -- Break out the beer! Well, okay, at least a beer-related question -- which beer was not consumed at the famous 2009 White House "beer summit"? Yuengling.

7:56 p.m. -- Lotsa House questions early on -- early head-scratchers nobody got correct: Which Member of the House represents the largest number of constituents? The answer? Rep. Joe Heck (R-Nev.). And what about the the fewest? Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.) .

Rep. Rick Berg (R-N.D.) has a lot Republican admirers who wouldn't mind seeing him run for the Senate next year, but on Thursday, the Club For Growth PAC made clear they are not one of them.

"The country needs the next Senator from North Dakota to have a pro-growth agenda in the U.S. Senate," said Club for Growth President Chris Chocola, in a statement. "Congressman Rick Berg lacks leadership in addressing our nation's spending problem at a time when people want government to spend less, not more. The Republican Party can and should demand better."

The Club for Growth, an organization dedicated to fiscally conservative principles, cited several votes Berg took against spending cuts.

Berg has only been in the House a few months; he defeated Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) in 2010. But a state rep. recently circulated a letter signed by legislators and statewide officials encouraging Berg to run. The Bismarck Tribune noted that neither state Sen. Tony Grindberg (R), who has previously acknowledged interest in the Senate, nor state Rep. Kim Koppelman (R) signed the letter. Koppelman said his missing signature was not meant to indicate that he doesn't support a Berg Senate run, but he did say he has been approached by several people about running for the Senate.

Meanwhile, Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk (R) officially announced his Senate campaign on Wednesday. Berg has acknowledged that he considering a Senate run.

Club spokesperson Barney Keller said the Club has heard rumblings about a pro-growth alternative to Berg, but did not specify who that person is.

The Club for Growth released their 2010 Congressional Scorecard Thursday, and Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) -- who the Club is still considering targeting in the 2012 election -- earned a 97 percent rating, good enough for third best in the Senate. His lifetime rating, however, is a significantly lower 74 percent.

Hatch and Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), another potentially vulnerable senator the Club is considering targeting, tied for the largest spread between their latest rating and their lifetime rating: both were separated by 23 points (Snowe's 2010 rating was 49 percent; her lifetime rating is 26 percent).

The lifetime score is a new addition to the Club's scorecard this year, and is the average of a lawmaker's 2010 score and scores from previous years.

The Club had previously targeted another senator from Utah, Bob Bennett (R), prior to his primary defeat last year. Bennett scored a 2010 rating of 91 percent, which higher than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), though Bennett's lifetime rating is a lower 77 percent.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is unlikely to qualify for the May 5 Republican primary debate in South Carolina, his spokesman said Thursday.

The state party billed Gingrich weeks ago as one of the expected participants in the first debate of the 2012 campaign, along with former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer (R).

However, the party is requiring that participants have launched presidential campaigns or at least exploratory committees by Tuesday. Gingrich is still "testing the waters,'' which means he does not have to disclose donors to the Federal Elections Commission.

"It's becoming increasingly clear that we're not going to make the deadline,'' said Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler. "We had always planned to be in the debate and want to be in the debate, but I don't think we will.''

This evening marks National Journal Hotline's third annual Political Pursuit Trivia Event at the Newseum. Three teams will compete for bragging rights, and the title of 2011 Political Pursuit Champion. Hotline Editors Reid Wilson and Josh Kraushaar will try to stump Members of Congress, political insiders and members of the media starting at 7 p.m.

Stay tuned to Hotline On Call for our live-blog coverage. We'll be blogging the event live and we'll have a score tally after each round. Be sure to follow @njhotline on Twitter for more.

Who beat then-DSCC finance chair Nancy Pelosi to become chairman of the DNC in 1985? Can you name two of the four House Democrats who switched parties and became Republicans after the 1994 election? Those were a couple of last year's questions, and this year's head-scratchers are sure to stump even the most seasoned political minds (the questions are being held in a heavily guarded vault under 24-hour surveillance at the time of the post).

Take a look at some of the photos and highlights from last year's event and, after the jump, check out who is on each team tonight:

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Dean Heller gets a promotion in Nevada, Mike Huckabee's unclear whether he's looking for one, and it's a big week for Mitch Daniels. Here's today's rundown:

8) North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk (R) launched his Senate campaign Wednesday, saying he plans appearances in 19 towns in the next four days. But the buzz surrounding a possible Rep. Rick Berg (R) candidacy didn't go away, as Sen. John Hoeven (R) said Berg is likely to run.

7) Former Ruth's Chris Steakhouse CEO Craig Miller is considering entering Florida's Republican Senate primary. Miller finished third in a primary against Rep. Sandy Adams (R-Fla.) last year and spent about $560,000 of his own money on the race.

6) We wrote Wednesday that older Americans were more likely to support the Republican budget plan than any other age group in a new USA Today/Gallup poll. But another new poll -- this one from the Kaiser Family Foundation -- shows that, when Americans are asked about the kinds of changes to Medicare supported by Republicans and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), seniors are the most likely to oppose those changes. Democrats believe the Ryan plan allows them to make inroads with seniors, where they still have a disadvantage; Republicans carried the 65-and-over vote by 21 points in 2010.

Overall, the poll found the public divided on future handling of Medicare. Fifty percent said Medicare "should continue as it is today" while 46 percent said Medicare "should be changed." But Americans aren't yet tuned into this debate -- 32% of poll respondents say they have never heard of the word "voucher" with regard to Medicare.

5) A controversial bill tightening the state's abortion restrictions and cutting off funding to Planned Parenthood passed the Indiana House on Wednesday, and it's decision time for Gov. Mitch Daniels (R). What Daniels decides to do could offer some clues about his presidential plans.

President Obama released his long form birth certificate, but Stephen Colbert doesn't think the drama is over, "I'm just glad we can finally put to rest the crazy, fringe idea that this will end the controversy."

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) stops by the Daily Show.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:55 to watch the trailer of former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's new movie.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

The Indiana House of Representatives voted 66-32 on Wednesday to approve a controversial bill tightening the state's abortion restrictions and cutting off funding to Planned Parenthood, which now awaits the signature of Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), a potential presidential candidate who has yet to comment publicly on the politically sensitive legislation.

Daniels has seven days to take action on the bill, and has three options once it arrives on his desk: 1) Sign the bill into law; 2) Veto the bill; 3) Do nothing, and allow the bill to become law after seven days without taking a stance.

Daniels' decision on signing the bill will likely provide the clearest indication yet of which way he's leaning on a presidential bid. If he signs it, Daniels can proudly tout two blockbuster legislative achievements -- the abortion bill, along with his recently passed landmark education reform bill -- and enter the Republican primary with two significant ideological victories under his belt, providing him an incredible running start in the slow-developing contest.

If he vetoes the bill, Daniels effectively confirms the suspicions of social conservatives who cringe at the idea of compromising on sensitive issues like abortion -- and in doing so, provides the strongest indication yet that he's putting state governance over presidential politics.

Speaking to reporters at an Americans for Tax Reform lunch Wednesday, Herman Cain demonstrated some of the flair that has made him a popular conservative talk radio host. The long-time businessman opened his remarks by stating "No, I'm not a Democrat, just because I'm black."

He added: "Being politically correct is not one of my strengths." Cain repeatedly referred to the Democrats' health care plan as the "health care deform bill," and at one point during the session referred to "Barackracy."

Cain, who is likely to run for president, laid out a fairly typical Republican platform: lower taxes, shrink the government, and reduce the deficit. He also came out in favor of House Budget Chair Paul Ryan's budget plan. "Philosophically, most of us are not that far apart on the issues," he said.

Cain has said President Obama should release his birth certificate to prove he's a citizen, which the president did today. Does he believe it's the real one? "I have no idea, and frankly, I don't care," Cain said.

The former Godfather's Pizza CEO has not yet committed to debating in South Carolina, although he indicated that if other candidates showed up, he would too. Cain also said that he was "weeks away from making a final decision" on a campaign, and indicated he was likely to run.

Updated at 4:48 p.m.

Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) will appoint Rep. Dean Heller (R) to serve the remainder of Sen. John Ensign's (R) term, Sandoval announced Wednesday, triggering the state's first ever House special election and altering the dynamic of an already active Senate race.

"Dean Heller currently represents 16 Nevada counties in their entirety and parts of Nevada's most populous county, Clark County. Dean has served as a statewide Constitutional officer for 12 years, as a member of the Nevada Legislature, and is serving his third term in the U.S. House of Representatives," Sandoval said in a statement. "He has quickly risen through the ranks within the United States House of Representatives."

"I am deeply humbled and honored to be appointed to the Senate by Governor Sandoval. There is a lot of hard work ahead to get our state and nation moving in the right direction. Nevadans across our state have been struggling with job loss, high gas prices, and foreclosures," said Heller. "There is no question that our nation needs to change the way we do business if we are going to get our economy back on track and get Nevadans working again."

Ensign announced earlier this year that he would not run for re-election. Last week, facing pressure from a Senate Ethics Committee investigating his conduct in an affair with a married aide, Ensign said he would resign, effective May 3.

Heller, the Republican establishment's top choice to replace Ensign, wasted little time declaring his candidacy once Ensign said he would not run. Democrats later landed a top recruit of their own, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D). Facing a very limited map, Nevada is one of the Democrats top opportunities to pick up a GOP-held seat this cycle.

Town hall opposition over the Republican budget and changes to Medicare coalesced Tuesday, with freshman members in Florida facing hostile crowds and the architect of the proposal, Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)., also having to defend his plan as he crisscrossed his district.

Liberal groups helped organize some of the protests to several of the more vulnerable Republicans heading into 2012.

Two of the Sunshine State first-term Republicans, Reps. Daniel Webster and Allen West, are likely to face competitive reelection challenges, and the budget and Medicare debates are likely to be a central issue, especially in senior-heavy Florida.

West's town hall in Fort Lauderdale was interrupted by hecklers, one of whom shouted at the beginning of his remarks "How about our Medicare that you're stealing?" The Palm Beach Post reports that that West took written questions submitted before the meeting, prompting another man to yell out that questions should be allowed from the audience. Former Air America radio host Nicole Sandler, was among those protesters, and was led out by police and later arrested for "trespassing after warning."

West, for his part, seemed undeterred, saying, "I'm going to tell you this...You're not going to intimidate me," and said the format wasn't intended to avoid questions. "I don't duck," said West.

Former West Virginia Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R) has released her first television ad ahead of the upcoming GOP gubernatorial primary. Ireland's first spot runs 30 seconds and stresses the importance of job creation and portrays her as a strong conservative.

"Lower taxes, less government means more jobs for West Virginia," Ireland says in the ad, which was filmed by Motion Masters and produced by M3Media.

An announcer says at both the beginning and end of the ad that Ireland is a "tough, tested conservative."

The Ireland campaign says the ad is on cable in Charleston starting Wednesday and across the state starting Thursday, with some airing on broadcast networks in Charleston. Last week, Ireland reportedly made a tiny $4,550 buy in the Charleston-Huntington market for an ad starting this week.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich delivered the keynote speech at the National Catholic Prayer Breakfast Wednesday morning. If the audience's reaction is any indicator, he'll have to do a lot more to woo religious conservatives in a presidential run.

Gingrich, who became a Catholic in 2009, discussed his conversion as a gradual process led by his wife Callista, a life-long Catholic. "People ask me why I chose to become Catholic," he said. "It is more accurate to say that I became Catholic and eventually realized one day that I should accept the faith that surrounded me."

The former speaker's appearance at the breakfast shows he's trying to shore up his religious bona fides, in advance of a possible presidential run. Still, Gingrich's past affairs and two divorces, including one that an ex-wife said he suggested as she recovered from cancer in the hospital, continue to haunt him. The audience gave him a warm but not hearty round of applause, and many criticized his past infidelities.

"You can say 'mea culpa' as many times as you want, but that doesn't change what he did to his wife," said one volunteer who asked not to be named because of her affiliation with the organization. "People just don't forget that kind of thing."

A new report from the Pew Hispanic Center shows that while a record number of Latino voters participated in the 2010 election compared to past midterms, their representation among the electorate is much lower than their representation in the general population. That's a gap Democrats will need to close as they seek to make further inroads with Latinos, who offered Democrats strong support in the last election.

More than 6.6 million Latinos voted in the 2010 midterms, according to the report. That is a record for a midterm election. Latino voters also represented a larger share of the electorate in 2010 than in any previous midterm election, representing 6.9 percent of all voters. The number of Hispanic voters surged 18.8 percent from 2006 to 2010, while the number of white voters fell 3.8 percent.

But in 2010, 16.3 percent of the nation's population was Latino, yet only 10.1 percent of eligible voters and fewer than 7 percent of voters were Latino, according to the report.

The Pew study shows that youth and non-citizenship (more than one third of Latinos are younger than the voting age of 18) make the share of the Latino population eligible to vote smaller than any other group. And even among eligible voters, participation lags.

Across the board, Democrats wooed Latino voters during the 2010 election, in the face of increasingly stringent immigration and border security proposals from Republicans in various states. According to the Edison Research 2010 national House exit poll, 60 percent of Latino voters supported Democratic candidates in the House while 38 percent supported Republican candidates. Still, that's down nine points from the 69 percent of the Hispanic vote Democrats won in the 2006 midterms.

Nationally, President Obama will need to register more Latino voters to compensate for losses among white voters he could face in 2012, based on what we saw in 2010. Polls consistently suggest Obama could struggle to match the 43 percent support among whites that he drew in 2008 according to the Edison Research exit poll. In 2010, according to the exit poll, only 37 percent of whites backed Democrats in House races, while 60 percent supported Republicans.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Sharron Angle says she is committed to running as a Republican, not an independent. Meanwhile Rep. Rick Berg (R) may be leaving the House not long after he arrived.. And Olympic gold medalist Carl Lewis may have finally found a race he can't run in. Here's today's rundown:

8) Can't run in this race? New Jersey Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno ruled late Tuesday that Olympic gold medalist Carl Lewis (D) cannot run for the state Senate because he does not meet the state's four-year residency requirement. Lewis' attorney has filed an appeal.

7) Count Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R) as the latest governor to see an alarming drop in his poll numbers. A new Quinnipiac University poll out today shows Corbett's approval rating holding steady at 39 percent since a prior survey in mid-February. But over the last two months, the percentage of Keystone State voters who disapprove of Corbett has risen sharply, from 11 percent to 37 percent. And a majority of voters -- 52 percent -- now disapproves of how Corbett, who has proposed cuts to higher education, is handling the state budget.

6) Democrats are quietly organizing against vulnerable Republicans in town halls over their support for Rep. Paul Ryan's budget. Reps. Dan Webster (R-Fla.) and Allen West (R-Fla.) got the most attention Tuesday, facing angry protesters.

5) Meanwhile, a new USA Today/Gallup poll out today shows Americans are evenly divided on both parties' long-term budget plans. 44 percent support the President Obama's budget, while 43 percent support Ryan's - a statistical tie. Most notable: seniors are the age group that views Ryan's plans most favorably - a counterintuitive finding that underscores the entrenched GOP advantage with older voters.

Unlike other polls that described the Ryan plan (in different ways), this survey does not explain the two budget proposals. Democrats believe that Republicans' embrace of Ryan's proposal has put seniors and independents back in play, but the USA Today/Gallup poll shows Democrats have a lot of work to do: Americans still trust Republicans over Democrats with regard to the budget, 48 percent to 36 percent.

A new Gallup/USA Today poll contains a counterintuitive finding: the age group most receptive to House Budget Chair Paul Ryan's plan to deal with the budget - seniors.

The poll finds 48 percent of seniors (those 65 and over) support Ryan's plan over President Obama's plan, while 42 percent back the president.

That's the highest total among the age groups tested - a 47 percent plurality between the ages of 50 and 64 backed Ryan, and a 45 percent plurality of those between 30-49 backed Ryan. But young voters overwhelmingly sided with Obama by a 23-point margin, 53 to 30 percent.

(RELATED: Top 10 Most Endangered Democrats | Top 10 Republicans Most Vulnerable to Redistricting)

Overall, 44 percent back Obama's plan, while 43 percent support Ryan.

Republicans hold a double-digit lead over Democrats in public perception of which party would do a better job dealing with the federal budget, according to the survey. 48 percent prefer Republicans, while 36 percent prefer Democrats in Congress.

The poll, conducted between April 20-23, surveyed 1,013 adults and has a four percent margin of error.

With Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour out of the 2012 race, Stephen Colbert wants to know which Republican contender will charge to the top.

Jimmy Kimmel, on Donald Trump demanding to see President Obama's school grades: "This could be the first presidency brought down by a C- in wood shop."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:05 for a look at the White House Easter festivities.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Women have already made up the majority of House recruits early this cycle - and now EMILY's List is taking their own first step toward helping who they believe are among the most promising female candidates.

The pro-choice women's group is announcing today they're placing four women "On The List" for special designation in their campaigns against Republican male members: former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.), who became the first Democratic member who lost last cycle to announce a comeback bid; former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack (D), who is exploring a run against Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) in a newly-formed congressional district; former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel (D), who is vying to challenge Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.); and Ann McLane Kuster (D), who narrowly missed defeating Rep. Charlie Bass (R-N.H.) even amid a Republican headwind in November.

This new label isn't an endorsement yet from the group, but they are encouraging their more than 900,000 members to begin learning about these women's candidacies and support them financially.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) officially announced on Tuesday that he is forming a presidential exploratory committee and introduced his Iowa leadership team, which consists of three members of the Iowa GOP's State Central Committee.

Drew Ivers, a longtime Hawkeye State GOP activist, will be reprising his 2008 role as Paul's Iowa chairman. David Fischer, the longest-serving member the Polk County GOP executive committee, and former Story County GOP chair A. J. Spiker will serve as vice chairmen.

This will be Paul's third presidential run: he ran as a Libertarian in 1988, then again as a Republican in 2008. Paul finished fifth in the Iowa Caucuses in 2008, getting 10 percent of the vote.

Not all Senate races are created equal. In 2012, marquee contests in states that also stand to be presidential battleground are already receiving outsized attention. Take Nevada and Virginia, for example. Both races are for open seats and feature top recruits from both parties.

Then there are other races that aren't receiving much publicity now, but are poised to heat up considerably in the future. Here is a look at a few sleeper races that have the ingredients to become more intriguing as the cycle goes on:

Texas: After Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray identified Texas as a possible Democratic pickup opportunity and the DSCC "mystery candidate" -- retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez -- was named, the possibility for the race to receive more media attention grew exponentially.

If he runs, will Sanchez get more attention for his military bona fides and his status as a leading Hispanic statewide contender? Or will his connections to the Abu Ghraib scandal overwhelm his message?

There's also an active Republican primary underway, with several conservatives looking to take on the establishment favorite, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. Former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams and former Solicitor General Ted Cruz are both courting Tea Party support, while well-funded former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert figures to be a factor as well.

New Mexico Auditor Hector Balderas (D) officially announced his Senate campaign on Tuesday in a brief video that underscores his rural, northern New Mexico roots and his work as auditor in cracking down on corruption.

"Accountability and fiscal responsibility are not Republican words," Balderas says in the video that begins with footage from Wagon Mound, the rural northern New Mexico town where he grew up. "And I'm tired of hearing them used as excuses to shortchange our children and break promises to our seniors. That's why as auditor, I've worked hard to crack down on corrupt officials who misuse public funds and abuse the public trust."

Balderas will be up against Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) in the Democratic primary. He makes no mention of Heinrich in the video, but takes him on in an indirect way.

"In this campaign, I won't have the most connections in Washington," he says in the video. "I won't be the candidate of the lobbyists or the insiders. But I'm not running to be their senator. I'm running to be yours."

Balderas was elected auditor at age 33 in 2006, and became the youngest Hispanic statewide elected official in the country at the time. He has the potential to do very well among Hispanic voters, especially in areas outside Albuquerque, which is in Heinrich's district. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) said Monday that he will not enter the race, and while he won't be a candidate, his endorsement could be key -- especially for Heinrich. Lujan would be a valuable surrogate for Heinrich in reaching out to Hispanic voters. He hasn't specified his preference in the race.

Over on the Republican side, former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) is the early front-runner, but she may get some company in the primary. Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) is also considering entering the race. Sanchez would run to the right of Wilson.

City Year founder Alan Khazei (D) officially announced his challenge to Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), becoming the biggest name in a Democratic field that's been slow to form.

In a video posted to his website, Khazei emphasizes education, clean energy and restoring "a sense of common purpose," and touts his work in service.

"As I've traveled across our state, listening and learning from you, I've heard from many people who are concerned that opportunity is drying up," he says. "The solution is to embrace our Massachusetts spirit of innovation."

"From the first shots fired at Lexington And Concord, Massachusetts has always led the nation. We need to lead once again. We need to move from 20th century approaches, to ones that embrace the power and possibility of the 21st century."

Fox News and the South Carolina Republican Party are planning on holding a debate on May 5 despite a notably slow start to the 2012 presidential race, but count Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus among those who are unsure the debate will actually take place.

"I don't know," said Priebus Tuesday morning at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast in Washington when asked if the debate will take place as scheduled.

The slow start to the race has already caused a Politico/NBC News debate that was slated for early May to be pushed back to September. For his own part, Priebus said holding fewer debates -- and waiting a little longer to hold them -- is a better idea.

"I think fewer is better and perhaps waiting might be better as well," said Priebus. "But I'm going to leave that up to the candidates, new outlets and state parties to figure that out."

"The idea of twenty different forums and twenty different groups is a little much," Priebus said. "We need to have some order in our debate process," he continued.

Priebus said the RNC will try to replicate the process the Democratic National Committee created in 2008 in which the national party sanctioned a limited number of debates but didn't preclude candidates from particiapating in other debates.

For the first time, a Democratic candidate is using the GOP budget proposal as an attack in a campaign ad - an early test case of the potency of the Democratic attacks on Republican plans to alter Medicare.

With less than a month left until the special election to succeed former Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y.), Democrat Kathy Hochul is going up with an ad slamming Republican Jane Corwin for her support of Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) budget.

"Jane Corwin said she would vote for the 2012 Republican budget that would essentially end Medicare. Seniors would have to pay $6,400 more for the same coverage. But the plan Jane Corwin supports would cut taxes for the wealthiest Americans," the ad says.

"Kathy Hochul says cut the deficit but do it in the right way. Protect Medicare. And no more tax breaks for multimillionaires."

10:57 a.m. CORRECTION: The original version of this post incorrectly identified the office Wagner is pursuing. Wagner announced Tuesday morning that she will explore a Congressional bid, hinting that 2nd District Rep. Todd Akin (R) will run for Senate.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Haley Barbour exits stage right, as all attention now turns to Mitch Daniels. Meanwhile, Sharron Angle threatens to run as an independent, creating NRCC flashbacks from 2009. And two ex-television stars in Wisconsin are set to square off against each other -- for Congress. Here's today's rundown:

9) Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) will support spending caps that would require deep cuts over the coming decade. The move is a blow to to President Obama and Senate Democratic leaders and is another of Manchin's moves to the right in advance of the reelection campaign he faces in 2012.

One more Democratic defector (along with Sens. Claire McCaskill and Independent Joe Lieberman) and the bill would likely have majority support. Et tu, Ben Nelson?

8) Ed Failor, a leading fiscal conservative activist in Iowa, on Monday resigned as head of the group Iowans for Tax Relief "to pursue exciting opportunities." He is sure to be courted heavily by the presidential campaigns playing in the Hawkeye State and would be a top get if anyone is able to land his support.

7) Several sleepy Senate races are heating up. Former state Rep. Adam Hasner jumped into the GOP primary, launching his campaign with an interview on the Mark Levin show last night where he immediately distanced himself from former Gov. Charlie Crist. Hasner is winning rave reviews from conservatives; look for him to try to claim the Marco Rubio mantle as he touts support from those on the right.

And in North Dakota, Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk (R) made clear in a letter to supporters that he is running for the Senate. He is set to announce his decision Wednesday.

Meanwhile, former Missouri Republican Party chairwoman Ann Wagner will declare on two radio shows Tuesday she will explore a Congressional bid in the 2nd District.

6) First on Sort: The National Republican Congressional Committee is launching a radio ad today hitting Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.) for failing to vote for a budget proposal for the upcoming fiscal year. "The federal government is fourteen trillion dollars in debt. And what did Congressman Mike Ross do to cut spending? Drum roll please ... Poof. That's it. Nothing," the ad says. The ad will run for the next three weeks on local radio.

Ross, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, may not be in the House much longer. Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg wrote that Ross is considering a run for the Arkansas governorship in 2014.

Stephen Colbert wants to know when Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, will drop out of the 2012 presidential race. Paul: "I'm on my way to making a really important decision, very soon, within a year or two."

Jon Stewart finds one consistent theme in early presidential polls, "They are consistently wrong."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast Forward to 1:45 for the latest installment of "Indecision 2012."

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

A new poll of South Carolina Republicans out today shows former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney running ahead in the 2012 presidential primary, a strong showing for Romney in a key early primary state.

Among all registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, Huckabee leads with 18 percent, just ahead of Romney, who earns 16 percent. Real estate mogul Donald Trump is third with 10 percent, while former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is fourth with 9 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich finishes fifth at 8 percent. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has said repeatedly that he will not run for president, is sixth with 6 percent.

Bringing up the rear were Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn. (4 percent), Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex. (3 percent), businessman Herman Cain (2 percent) and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who announced Monday he would not run for president, earned just 2 percent of the vote.

Among voters who say they are definitely planning to vote in the primary, Huckabee (19 percent) maintains that slight lead over Romney (17 percent), with Trump (11 percent), Gingrich (8 percent) and Palin (8 percent) trailing behind.

In the Maine Senate race, both Democrats and conservative Republicans have their eye on Sen. Olympia Snowe's (R-Maine) seat, but so far, no top contender from either side has emerged, and there does not appear to be an obvious candidate-in-waiting in sight, according to observers and operatives in the state.

During a recent briefing, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray identified Maine as a possible Democratic pickup opportunity in 2012. Conservative Republicans too, would also like to unseat the moderate senator. She's attracted two GOP challengers to her right -- Maine Tea Party Patriots head Andrew Ian Dodge and businessman Scott D'Amboise -- but neither is seen as a strong threat in the GOP race.

"I can't imagine Olympia Snowe losing in a general election," said University of Maine political scientist Mark Brewer. "I do think there's a possibility that if there were someone -- a good candidate from the right of her -- in the Republican primary, they could possibly give her some problems, but at this point, i just can't seem to come up with much in the way of a name."

"I haven't heard of anybody else," said Maine GOP Chair Charles Webster. "There are a lot of factors besides just the fact that she may not appeal to the Tea Party wing of the Republican party. She's built a strong, solid base among Republicans across the state."

In a surprise announcement, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour took himself out of the 2012 presidential race on Monday.

"I will not be a candidate for president next year," he said in a statement." This has been a difficult personal decision."

Update: Barbour had lined up a top-tier staff, including, sources close to Barbour's campaign tell The Hotline, a campaign manager. Barbour was accompanied on a recent campaign swing by Rob Collins, a veteran Republican strategist who would have led the governor's campaign. Collins had served as chief of staff to Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and as executive director of the American Action Network before leaving earlier this year.

Read the full story on Nationaljournal.com

Correction: This post misstated the date during which Collins traveled with Barbour.

Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.) won't run for retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman's seat, Democratic sources have confirmed, clearing the way for what is shaping up as a two-candidate Democratic contest between Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and state Auditor Hector Balderas (D).

New Mexico politics blogger Joe Monahan first reported Monday that Lujan told local Democrats in Farmington that he will run for re-election to his House seat, rather than the Senate.

Lujan's decision is likely a break for Balderas, who filed statement of candidacy papers last week and is set to officially announce his candidacy this week. As prominent Hispanic pols, Balderas and Lujan could have split a big chunk of the Hispanic vote, allowing Heinrich to take advantage.

Former Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is another prominent name has been mentioned as possibility for the Senate race, though NMPolitics.com reported last week that she is taking a look at a run for the House seat Heinrich is vacating. Activist Andres Valdez is also in the Democratic race, but does not figure to be major factor in the primary.

On the GOP side of the Senate race, former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) is the front-runner. Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) is considering entering the race as well. If he runs, both the Democratic and Republican primaries would feature a high-profile matchup between a prominent Hispanic candidate and a prominent Anglo candidate.

5:21 p.m. update: In a statement, Lujan said, "after careful consideration, I have decided that I will not seek the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate race. I look forward to building on my work as Chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus' BOLD PAC and as a member of the DCCC's recruiting committee to recruit strong candidates who reflect the growing diversity of our country and who will be a part of our effort to take back the House. "

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is close to naming Ensign's replacement (read: Heller) while decisions from two governors mulling White House bids are also upcoming. And the Green Bay Packers are stymied in their attempts to visit the country's most high-profile Chicago Bears fan Here's today's rundown:

9) The NFL's Green Bay Packers aren't currently able to move forward with plans to make the traditional trip to the White House following their win in the Super Bowl earlier this year. With no labor agreement in place between NFL owners and players, a trip to Washington has not yet been scheduled. Team officials are barred from talking with players, which has prevented them from organizing a visit.

8) American United For Change is launching television ads going after four House Republicans for voting for Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's budget. One ad goes after Ryan himself, and another targets Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), who is being challenged by former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack (D). Reps. Chip Cravaack (R-Minn.) and Sean Duffy (R-Wis.) are the group's two other targets. The spots are airing on local broadcast television in the four Members' respective districts for the next four days. The total size of the buy is $35,000.

7) The College Republican National Committee is going up today in Iowa with an ad urging college students to press potential GOP presidential hopefuls on their plan to reduce the country's debt and fix the rising deficit. It's a two-week $40,000 initial ad buy that will run on cable and broadcast stations in college markets of Ames, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City and Waterloo. The ad begins with echoes of President Obama's call for "winning the future," with students saying he's instead "losing the future."

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Sen. John Ensign's (R-Nev.) sudden resignation looks like good news for Rep. Dean Heller (R), since he'll likely be appointed to the seat, allowing him to try out the role while running. History is on his side: 6 of the 7 Reps. appointed to the Senate have gone on to win since 1956. But incumbency hasn't given the advantage it once did, and Heller will still have to navigate carefully with his future Senate votes. Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) won't face an impossible task next fall, but it is one more difficult than running for an open seat.

If Heller is appointed, expect an epic battle for his House seat. It's a competitive district, and the GOP primary for his seat was already shaping up to be heated. Though Angle draws the buzz, she won't be likely to be picked in a special -- if that's how the nominees get selected -- but it's possible she could play spoiler as a third-party candidate. Meanwhile, state Sen. Greg Brower (R) confirmed Friday he is also jumping into the race, while State GOP Chair Mark Amodei and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (R) may also run.

-- In New Mexico, Rep. Martin Henrich (D) got a serious primary challenger when Auditor Hector Balderas (D) filed paperwork to enter the Senate race. Both sides are expected to host hotly contested primaries with an Anglo candidate running against a Latino candidate, though ex-Rep. Heather Wilson (R) is still the only big-name Republican in the race. Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R): Your move.

-- Democrats are excited about Ret. U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez's potential Senate candidacy in Texas, and for good reason: Sanchez is a prominent veteran and a native Texan in a state whose Hispanic population keeps growing. But a Sanchez bid won't come without some bumps in the road. As Sean Sullivan pointed out this week, Texas has been hostile territory for Democrats, despite the growth of the Hispanic population. And Sanchez's association with the Abu Ghraib scandal will haunt him during the campaign. Despite NRSC chair John Cornyn's statement that he hopes that campaign won't focus on Sanchez's military service, the NRSC sent a Freedom of Information Act request this week to the Pentagon asking for correspondence between Senate Democrats and the Pentagon mentioning Sanchez from around the time of Abu Ghraib. Combine all that with the fact that Sanchez is a political novice, and it looks like a uphill climb for the Democrats' prize recruit in the Lone Star State.

In the crowded Democratic gubernatorial field in West Virginia, political unknown Arne Moltis's campaign hasn't received very much attention. But the Beckley Register-Herald spoke with him as part of a series of candidate interviews, and he compared himself to Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

"I don't drink at all, I don't touch the stuff," he mentioned in response to a question on state finances. "I don't drink. I don't smoke. I do chase women, like the prime minister of Italy, but that's about it."

Check out the entire interview here.

Updated at 9:30 pm to reflect Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) appearing on "Meet the Press" live from Cairo

With Congress in recess and Easter on Sunday, this weekend's political affairs programs will tackle a wide range of issues: the growing deficit, the impending debt ceiling vote, the increased violence and stepped up measures in Libya, and whether faith should or shouldn't play an active role in government.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) appears on NBC's "Meet the Press," live from Cairo. The show also brings in two of the Senate's leading voices and members of the "Gang of Six," Senate Budget Chair Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), who sits on the Senate Finance Committee, to debate whether there will be a deal in the debt ceiling showdown. CBS' "Face the Nation" will also focus on the impending budget battles, with moderator Bob Schieffer hosting five newly elected members of Congress: Sens. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.), and Reps. Tim Griffin (R-Ark.) and Joe Walsh (R-Ill.).

ABC's "This Week" kicks off Easter Sunday with discussions with Rev. Franklin Graham and Pastor Tim Keller. Host Christiane Amanpour will then lead a roundtable focusing on the role of God and faith in government; with interfaith couple Cokie and Steve Roberts, Rev. Al Sharpton, Southern Baptist Convention's Richard Land and Interfaith Youth Core founder Eboo Patel.

Over on cable, CNN turns their attention overseas to Libya and the recent uptick in violence with Sens. Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). Host Candy Crowley will also speak with the two about what to expect out of the Senate when it returns from recess regarding the deficit and budget. Crowley will then lead a discussion about the state of the U.S. education system with Sens. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), American Federation of Teachers' President Randi Weingarten and Capitol Prep Magnet School Founder Steve Perry.

"FOX News Sunday" focuses on the future and the 2012 elections by hosting former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.). Santorum will discuss what he will bring, as a candidate, to GOP presidential field. NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will then sit down to give his take on President Obama's plan to tackle the deficit and what he has in store for his future in politics.

And in preparation for next week's British Royal Wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton, CNN's presents "The Women Who Would Be Queen." Soledad O'Brien takes a look at the similarities between Middleton and William's mother, Princess Diana. It airs Sunday at 9pm.

Get the full listings after the jump.

A day after Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) announced that he is resigning on May 3, here is the latest on where things stand in the Silver State:

Appointing a replacement for Ensign: The conventional wisdom is still that Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) will appoint Rep. Dean Heller (R) to replace Ensign. Sandoval released a statement Friday saying that he expects to appoint a replacement before Ensign's resignation date, but he cautioned against speculation about who that person would be.

"Pursuant to the relevant law I expect to announce an appointment before the resignation effective date of May 3," Sandoval said. "I take very seriously the importance of this appointment, so to speculate on potential candidates for appointment before then would be premature."

House Special Election Procedure: If Sandoval appoints Heller, a special election would be triggered in the 2nd District. We know this much: once a House vacancy occurs, Sandoval will have 7 days to set a special election date, which will then have to take place within 180 days, on a Tuesday. But from there, it's not yet completely clear whether there would be a party nomination process in which the state party committees would choose their candidates or whether a free-for-all election would take place. The Secretary of State's office was still reviewing the laws Friday. Nevada political guru Jon Ralston has a great write-up of the situation here.

2nd District Race: Even before Ensign's announcement, the race in the 2nd District was already active, given that Heller was already vacating the seat to run for the Senate next year. 2010 Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle already declared her candidacy for the 2012 election, and so did retired Navy Cmdr. Kirk Lippold (R).

Amid the debate in Washington over long-term changes to Medicare, the federal government's health insurance program for seniors, two new polls released this week offer differing snapshots of the country's appetite for those proposed changes.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Wednesday shows sweeping opposition to "cutting spending on Medicare" in order to reduce the national debt, with 78 percent of Americans opposed, including 65 percent who describe themselves as "strongly opposed."

But a new CBS News/New York Times poll released late Thursday paints a different picture. A slight plurality -- 48 percent -- say they are "willing" to "reduce spending on Medicare" to reduce the budget deficit; 45 percent say they are not willing to do that.

The results of the CBS News/New York Times poll are even more striking when compared with a CBS News poll conducted in March, in which an overwhelming majority -- 76 percent -- said they were not willing to reduce spending on Medicare.

There are myriad explanations for the divergence between the two most recent polls -- and also the divergence between polls conducted by CBS News over the last month.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) announced Thursday that he will retire in May, and his decision could shake up several races in the Silver State. Meanwhile, Senate races in Florida and New Mexico look like they are about to get more crowded and President Obama gets treated to a musical number out west. Here's today's rundown:

9) Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) is calling on Texans to pray for rain amid wildfires in the state. Perry: "It seems right and fitting that the people of Texas should join together in prayer to humbly seek an end to this devastating drought and these dangerous wildfires."

8) Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has been a strong proponent of U.S. military intervention in Libya, arrived Friday in Benghazi. McCain said he planned to meet with the rebel National Transition Council, the de-facto government in the eastern half of the country, and members of the rebel military.

7) A week after Dr. Robert Paul, son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), said he was considering a Senate bid in Texas, he's now all but ruling it out, saying "I'm never going to say I won't ever run for office, but I think running for Senate probably is not going to happen this time."

6) "We paid our dues. Where's our change?" That was the refrain from a group of singing protesters at an Obama fundraiser Thursday in San Francisco. The group was protesting the government's treatment of Pfc. Bradley Manning, the U.S. soldier who allegedly leaked classified documents to WikiLeaks.

Jimmy Kimmel thinks President Obama has more then fundraising on his agenda during his trip to Los Angeles, "Also meeting with Dr. 90210 about an ear tuck."

Conan O'Brien on Obama's trip to Los Angeles: "Huge traffic delays are expected all over Los Angeles. Tomorrow President Obama is back on the east coast, and huge traffic delays are expected all over Los Angeles."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00 for Kimmel's "This Week In Unnecessary Censorship."

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

I just wrote about the national importance of the Nevada Senate race in my column this week, and Sen. John Ensign's sudden decision to resign early next month makes this state even more pivotal for the White House and congressional campaign strategists.

Nevada has now become a battleground state on steroids. It's expected to be one of the most hotly-contested states for the presidential race, is hosting a high-profile Senate showdown, and there could be as many as three competitive House races (in the state's four districts, after redistricting). Here's what Ensign's decision means for the state of play in Nevada politics:

1. Slight boost to Heller for the Senate seat. Republican sources said that the timing of Ensign's resignation had nothing to do with assisting GOP Rep. Dean Heller in the Senate race--the two have had a notably chilly relationship in recent years--and had everything to do with the timing of the Senate Ethics Committee's investigation.

But Heller is likely to be appointed to serve the rest of Ensign's term, which would give him the advantage of incumbency in a race. While the Senate race looked like a battle between two members of Congress who held equal standing, now Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley will have to make the case that Heller should be unseated after serving time as a senator. It's not an impossible task, but it's slightly more difficult than running for a purely open seat.

2. Nevada becomes an even bigger battleground. It's telling that President Obama was campaigning in Reno, Nev., today--Heller's home district--a part of the country that is critical for his reelection.

3. A very special election. If Heller gets appointed to the Senate, his House seat suddenly becomes the scene of the first major election of 2011--one that could give us a lot of clues about the trajectory of 2012. A House special election, in northern Nevada, would be an early test of both parties' messaging, particularly when it comes to competing budgetary proposals.

Read my full story on Nationaljournal.com.

Updated at 7:29 pm

Two-term Republican Sen. John Ensign of Nevada on Thursday announced his resignation ending a once-promising career that had the former veterinarian and casino manager eyeing a possible presidential bid before an ugly sex scandal and subsequent ethics probe snuffed out his ambition and, eventually, his Senate tenure.

Ensign's resignation will clear the way for GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval to appoint GOP Rep. Dean Heller, already an announced candidate for Ensign's seat, to the Senate vacancy.

Ensign, 53, began notifying Nevada friends of his intentions late Thursday. The senator has kept his distance from official GOP circles in Washington for months, but word quickly spread to GOP figures inside the Beltway who confirmed a report by Nevada politics watcher Jon Ralston of the Las Vegas Sun to NJ.

Read the full story at Nationaljournal.com

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) filed a lawsuit in federal court Thursday challenging Federal Election Commission regulations that allowed non-profit organizations to spend large sums of money on ads in the 2010 midterm elections without disclosing the identities of their donors.

In the suit, Van Hollen alleges that the FEC is in violation of disclosure requirements established under the McCain-Feingold law for groups that pay for "electioneering communications." The suit argues that non-profit 501(c) organizations should not be exempt from these regulations.

"The disclosure of campaign-donor information is essential to our democracy," Van Hollen said. "The absence of transparency will enable special interest groups to bankroll campaign initiatives while operating under a veil of anonymity."

The Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United ruling struck down restrictions on independent corporate campaign spending, but it upheld the disclosure requirements mandated under McCain-Feingold. But the FEC does not apply these standards to 501(c) groups.

Van Hollen also filed a petition with the FEC Thursday asking the agency to establish new regulations that would require organizations which make "independent expenditures" to disclose the identity of their donors.

It's not going to happen in 2012, but could Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) be eying a presidential run further run down the road? "Maybe someday. But it's just not on my plate," he told the Nashville Tennessean's editorial board. More from Corker on what he would bring to the table as a national candidate:

"Do I think that I have a vision for our country that would be one the American people would support? Yes. Do I think I have the ability to lead and be an executive and to get good people that you could trust, but then also really drill down on the things that matter? Yes. Am I gifted with a lot of rhetorical flair? Not really."

Corker also weighed in on his executive mindset, and what his own Senate reelection plans once looked like:

"I am very frustrated and I am an executive and I know that I'm an executive in a legislative body. ... I just don't have the fire in the belly to do that (run for president). I don't right now. This August, I came that close to not running for the Senate. You've got to start thinking about running for the Senate early. I'm 58 years-old. You run for two years, and if you're elected you serve for six, so it's an eight-year decision," he noted.

Corker came to the Senate from a business background, and he sounds like someone who would put heavy emphasis on his executive chops if, down the road, he were to run for higher office. The first term senator was the only Republican freshman in the Senate following the 2006 wave election that brought Democrats control of both chambers of Congress.

House Republican freshmen may beat their chests over how terrible Washington is, but they're learning the Beltway is a great place to raise money for their next campaigns. The new class is already acting like old pros, kicking off their re-election bids with millions in funding from political action committees and scooping up millions more from Washington-area donors.

All told, the 87 freshmen members of Congress pulled in $5,930,117 from political action committees and their colleagues' campaign accounts during the first quarter of the year, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. And despite bashing Washington at every turn, freshmen scooped up more than $5.2 million from donors in Washington and its Maryland and Northern Virginia suburbs.

Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) was the most successful Washington-based fundraiser this quarter. The rookie from Franklin County raised just over $240,000 from PACs and took in a total of $187,000 from Washington-area contributors.

He led an ambitious group of 17 Republican freshmen who pulled in more than $100,000 from PACs. That list includes the freshmen who raised the most money overall last quarter; Reps. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.), Nan Hayworth (R-N.Y.), Pat Meehan (R-Pa.), Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and David McKinley (D-W.Va.) all raised impressive sums north of $300,000 in the first three months of the year, aided by at least $100,000 in PAC checks.

Republican voters haven't formed strong opinions about most of the party's potential presidential candidates, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. And nearly 60 percent of Republicans can't point to a candidate about whom they are enthusiastic in a nascent and slow-starting GOP presidential campaign.

As the Times notes, only those who have been making regular television appearances or have run in the past are well-known enough to draw strong views.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) is the best known in the survey; 51 percent of Republican voters said they had a favorable opinion of Palin, while 26 percent view her unfavorably. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), who ran for the Republican nomination in 2008, had the highest favorable rating among the Republicans surveyed. 54 percent of GOPers said they had a favorable opinion of Huckabee while 11 percent had an unfavorable view of the former Arkansas governor.

35 percent had a favorable view of Donald Trump, who has been on media blitz of late, while 32 percent had an unfavorable view and 33 percent were undecided. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 20 percent.

It's all down hill from there. Fully 43 percent don't have an opinion of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), who announced his presidential exploratory committee last week. Just 42 percent had a favorable opinion of him while 15 percent had an unfavorable view, even as most observers believe he's the front-runner.

Democratic and Republican political operatives are sharply divided on whether President Obama or Congressional Republicans currently hold the high ground in the budget debate, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Political operatives in both parties overwhelmingly agree that Democrats will be hurt more than Republicans by the escalating cost of filling up at the pump, according this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Democrats have the big money edge in the Kentucky gubernatorial race, while the drama in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race continues. Former Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) is eying a new gig; and someone famous is "cool" with President Obama's proposals. Here's today's rundown:

8) Obama was in Silicon Valley on Wednesday for a town hall at Facebook headquarters. He was critical of the Republican budget proposal and repeated his call to raise taxes on the country's top earners. Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg's reaction? "I'm cool with that."

7) Former Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) isn't going to be seeking a comeback , and is instead running for attorney general of Pennsylvania. He lost to Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick
(R-Pa.) in 2010 and is the second Democrat in the AG race.

6) In an interview with the AP, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) sounded less than impressed with the GOP presidential field. "I'll tell you, right now, no one in the field excites me right now," she said.

Haley also had some advice for presidential hopefuls coming to South Carolina. "I tell them get to every corner of the state. Don't just go to GOP clubs. Go to everybody because that was the key to my success," she said. "And if you are going to come in with your typical consultant and do your normal presidential campaigning, you're not going to win." She added that she believes Donald Trump is serious about considering a run for president.

Donald Trump is doing well in polls among Republican voters. Jimmy Kimmel thinks it's because Trump has the right message, "People are responding to his straight forward honesty, tough talk and utter lunacy."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:55, Trump has a scoop for ABC's George Stephanopoulos.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Wisconsin Assistant Attorney General JoAnne Kloppenburg announced Wednesday that her campaign has requested a recount in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, ensuring that the drama over the makeup of the state's high court will continue.

The liberal-backed Kloppenburg lost the April 5 election by a total of 7,316 votes to incumbent Justice David Prosser, who is supported by Republicans. With the difference between the two candidates amounting to less than half of one percent of the total votes cast, Kloppenburg had the ability to direct the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board to conduct a recount at no cost to her own campaign.

"With a margin this small," Kloppenburg said, "the importance of every vote is magnified and doubts about each vote are magnified as well."

Kloppenburg also called for the Government Accountability Board to appoint a special investigator to examine the actions of Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus. Kloppenburg's initial slim lead was erased after Nickolaus discovered a counting error in the Waukesha tally, resulting in a gain of more than 7,000 votes for Prosser two days after the election.

Rep. Jeff Flake (R) is the only candidate in either party in the race for retiring-Sen. Jon Kyl's (R) seat, but he might get a challenger with the ability to self-fund in the GOP race. Wealthy Arizona investor Wil R. Cardon is considering running in the Republican race, according to Republicans familiar with his thinking.

Cardon is President and CEO of the Cardon Group, a real estate investment firm. Arizona GOP consultant Jason Rose, who is a friend of Cardon and whose public relations firm counts him as a client, confirmed that Cardon is giving serious consideration to running.

"He's giving it a very strong look," Rose said. "He would have an ability to make a significant contribution to the race. He's in the process of talking to a lot of different people."

A knowledgeable Arizona GOP source independently confirmed that Cardon is looking at the race, and said that given his ability to self-fund, he would be a candidate to watch if he decides to run.

Call it an exercise in making every dollar count: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pulled one of the oldest tricks in the book this week, buying radio ads in tiny amounts in hopes of earning local media coverage. And, despite Republicans' best efforts, it actually worked.

The DCCC's ad buy targeted 25 incumbent Republicans, accusing them of voting to gut Medicare by supporting Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) budget proposal. But Democrats put less than $6,000 behind the radio spots. In some districts, the committee plopped down money that wouldn't make a respectable power lunch in Washington; the committee spent only $40 in Rep. Larry Bucshon's district in southwest Indiana, and just $60 in districts in Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois and South Dakota.

Such small buys aren't intended to influence an electorate. Instead, they're aimed at influencing the journalists in those districts; "Democrats target Canseco over Medicare," the San Antonio Express-News wrote, of Rep. Quico Canseco (R-Texas). Some of those journalists won't bother to check and see how much Democrats paid for those ads. In fact, the vast majority of voters in Canseco's district have almost no chance of hearing the DCCC's ads, on which Democrats spent all of $240.

This time, a Republican-friendly organization, American Crossroads, called Democrats on their feint. The group's ad buyers looked into the DCCC's purchases, and spokesman Jonathan Collegio shared the minuscule results with reporters.

Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack (D) is inching closer toward a congressional run, confirming today she is exploring a run against Rep. Steve King (R) in the state's newly-drawn Fourth District.

Vilsack wrote on her newly-launched website that she will spend the next few weeks traveling throughout the new district and talking with voters. She's not from King's home region of northwest Iowa, but will be moving into the new district in the next month.

"Serving Iowa is both a privilege and a responsibility. The decision to run for Congress deserves serious consideration. Next month, I will move to Ames and continue to explore the possibility of representing Iowa in the US House of Representatives," Vilsack said in a statement.

If she jumps in against King, it will set up one of the most high-profile House races of 2012. Vilsack is expected to receive strong support from national Democrats and women's groups. And King has been one of the most outspoken conservatives in the House, and has been a longtime favorite of social conservatives and Tea Party activists.

The newly-created district would have given John McCain 50.2 percent of the vote in 2008 (down from 54 percent in King's old seat), making it a bona fide battleground.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee outraised the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee during the first quarter of 2011, bringing in $11.69 million as the NRSC brought in $11.2 million.

The DSCC ended the period with more money in the bank, but also more debt. They finished the first quarter with $5.5 million cash on hand, while the NRSC had $1.48 million in the bank. The DSCC's debt load stands at $4.89 million while the NRSC's debt stands at $2.75 million, the lowest of any of the six campaign committees. In March, the DSCC raised 5.6 million while the NRSC brought in $5 million.

Both committees expressed optimism, as the DSCC highlighted the fact that unlike the NRSC, they have significantly more cash on hand than debt. The NRSC, meanwhile, noted that March was the most successful off-year fundraising month for the committee since passage of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act.

Sen. Marco Rubio's (R-Fla.) fiscal profile has been the main attraction for conservatives who support him, but he is also crafting a foreign policy reputation, which, if he plans to run for higher office down the road, could make him a more well-rounded candidate.

Rubio chats with National Review's Robert Costa about foreign policy in a piece out today. He identifies the late-Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.), a hawkish former Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, as his model. He also mentions two books he keeps at his side: "Courting Disaster," former George W. Bush speechwriter Marc Thiessen's defense of the CIA's interrogation program during the Bush administration; and "Power, Faith, and Fantasy," Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren's book on the history of the U.S. in the Middle East. Rubio has also recently read Bush's autobiography, "Decision Points."

"It is so important that conservatism does not translate into isolationism," Rubio says. "Isolationism has never worked for America. It is not going to work in the 21st century."

As much as Rubio has focused on fiscal matters, adopting stances on the debt ceiling and continuing resolutions that have garnered a lot of attention, he frequently discussed foreign policy on the campaign trail in 2010 and it's worth watching how his foreign policy track unfolds as his name continues to be mentioned as a possibility for national office in the future.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama is California dreaming, while Republicans believe they have a top-tier challenger against Menendez in New Jersey. Meanwhile, the Missouri Senate field could get more crowded, and a Salmon is now swimming downstream as he makes a political comeback. Here's today's rundown:

8) An air traffic control error is in the news once again, but this time the story involves a member of the First Family: First Lady Michelle Obama was flying on a plane Monday that came dangerously close to a cargo jet and had to abort its landing because of an air traffic controller's mistake.

7) New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) says he isn't running for president, and that suits New Jersey voters, who would choose Obama over their outspoken governor, 52 percent to 39 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll out early Wednesday. Voters are split on Christie (47 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove) and slightly more positive on Obama (51 percent approve, 45 percent disapprove). The gender gap in the survey is striking: Christie has a 56 percent approval rating among men, while just 38 percent of women approve of the way he is handling his job.

One possible warning sign for Democrats: Jersey voters are also split on Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez (42 percent approve, 40 percent disapprove), who is up for re-election. And Republicans just landed a top-flight challenger to challenge him. John Crowley, a biotech chief who left his day job to seek a cure for his daughter's rare genetic disorder, is eyeing the race. His story was made into a movie, "Extraordinary Measures."

Crowley came close to challenging Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) in 2008, but ultimately passed on the race. Republicans have been excited about his potential candidacy, and with Christie revitalizing the state GOP and Menendez showing signs of vulnerability, it would be an ideal time for him to run.

Potential White House contender Donald Trump has his first campaign slogan: "T-R-U-M-P stands for Taking Redirection Understanding Massive Power."

Jimmy Kimmel, on President Obama celebrating Passover with the annual White House Seder Dinner: "This morning Donald Trump demanded to see his bar mitzvah certificate."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:35, the Hispanic Caucus is upset with Speaker John Boehner for not hosting a Cinco de Mayo reception at the Capitol.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) is beginning a potential re-election campaign in good financial position, thanks to friends in Congress who helped her raise big money during her long recovery process.

Giffords' campaign reported raising $358,237 during the first three months of the year, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, despite an assassination attempt that nearly took her life on January 8. The reports show Giffords has $556,000 in the bank as of the March 31 reporting deadline.

The vast majority of that haul came during March, when several of Giffords' colleagues held a fundraiser on her behalf. Giffords' campaign benefited from about $350,000 raised after a fundraiser held by Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) and Adam Smith (D-Wash.), as well as Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.).

"I want to make sure Gabby Giffords has the resources that she needs. We are all here because we have her back," Wasserman Schultz told CNN before the March 15 fundraiser. "We are going to make sure, when she does back, she has the resources she needs to hit the ground running."

Giffords' campaign took in $227,500 from political action committees and her fellow House Democrats last quarter, including $7,000 from committees associated with Wasserman Schultz, $10,000 from the Blue Dog Coalition and $16,000 collected through the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Giffords has a track record of raising big bucks for her re-election bids. In 2010, when she narrowly won another term in a strong Republican year, Giffords raised more than $3.5 million. In 2008, Giffords pulled in $3.3 million, more than the nearly $2.6 million she raised during her initial 2006 run for her Tucson-based seat.

As we've noted on this blog, former Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) recently apologized to Sen. Daniel Inouye (D). Case is running for the Senate in 2012 for the second time; he ran against Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) in 2006, and found himself opposite Inouye, who backed Akaka.

In an interview with Honolulu Civil Beat, Inouye discusses his relationship with Case. When he's asked if it has healed, Inouye says, "Well he came to see me and, you know, I let bygones by [sic] bygones. But I said something like, 'When I get agitated and irritated, I might act up.' After all, I'm human, right? I can take a few blows. I'll turn the other cheek. But I always remind myself there was only [one] person qualified to be strung up on the cross. And I'm not the one."

Check out the entire interview here.

Lately, Democrats have been outwardly bullish about their chances of competing in the Lone Star State in 2012. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has been touting Ret. U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez as potential recruit, and they're publicly discussing competing seriously in the heavily Republican state. But it's not the first time Democrats have been enthusiastic about playing in Texas, and recent history suggests that a victory in a statewide race is a steep uphill climb for the party. To be successful in 2012, a Democratic Senate candidate will have to excel in areas where others have failed in the past.

In 2010, Democrats were very excited about the gubernatorial candidacy of former Houston Mayor Bill White (D), for whom national Democrats pitched in considerable resources in the hopes of unseating Gov. Rick Perry (R). To be sure, White was a strong candidate for Democrats and kept the race tight for much of the campaign. Still, Perry pulled away in the end and won by over 12 points.

In 2002, Democrats were high on former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (who ran for the Senate) and businessman Tony Sanchez (who ran for governor), but they each ended up losing by double digits in the general election.

So what's different about 2012?

"Two word response: changing demographics," Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray said at a recent briefing when asked why she was optimistic about competing in Texas this cycle.

In 2012, Arizona voters will decide at the ballot box whether to keep the state's public financing apparatus in place for elections, or whether to get rid of it.

On Monday, the state Senate approved a measure to let voters decide whether the state constitution should be amended to prevent the use of public funds for candidates, and the wording of the measure could be key to its prospects of passage or failure. Arizona's Capitol Media Services notes:

Voters won't see the words "Clean Elections" when they go to the polls next year. Instead they will be asked to approve a measure that lawmakers, all foes of the current system, have dubbed the "Stop Public Money for Political Candidates' Campaign Act."

In 1998, the "Citizens Clean Elections Act" was approved in the state, clearing the way for candidates who forgo private money to pursue public funding. Some Democratic lawmakers in the state oppose the wording of the current measure, according to the Capitol Media Services report, because they believe voters will oppose attempts to repeal "Clean Elections." Republicans, meanwhile, say that the term "Clean Elections" for the public financing system is misleading.

Monday's development is only the latest for a state whose campaign finance system has been in the news lately. The Supreme Court is expected to rule by June on the constitutionality of Arizona's matching funds provision, which helps publicly financed candidates maintain parity with opponents who use private funding. The high court last heard arguments last month, and appeared ready to reject the Arizona law. The ruling could have a far-reaching impact beyond the state.

President Obama is in Annandale, Va., this morning for a town hall on reducing the nation's debt, but as the Washington Post points out, former Democratic National Committee Chairman and Senate candidate Tim Kaine and other prominent Democrats, including the state's two senators and the state party chairman, will not be around. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) is attending, the Post reports. Obama is speaking at Northern Virginia Community College, which is in Connolly's district.

"[Gov.] Kaine has a full day of campaigning in another part of the state and won't be able to make this event, nor were we expecting to attend an event of this official capacity," a Kaine campaign source told Hotline On Call.

The distinction is worth noting: today's visit is not an official campaign event. But it is a reminder of the fact that Obama will be making many trips to the crucial swing state in the coming months, and as Republicans continue to deploy a strategy of tying Kaine to Obama, how often they appear together - and in what capacity -- will be worth keeping an eye on.

President Obama's approval rating is at its lowest point since early September in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll released Tuesday, surrendering the gains Obama had made since the midterm elections. But the poll also finds Obama ahead of his most prominent Republican rivals, including the marginal frontrunner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Half of Americans disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president, while just 47 percent approve. It is the first time more Americans have disapproved of the job Obama is doing than approved in more than seven months.

Obama's personal favorability has also taken a hit. Tested for the first time in nearly a year, the poll finds a slim majority, 52 percent, has a favorable impression of Obama, down from 57 percent in April 2010.

Obama's slippage in the poll appears to be tied to his handling of the economy. A majority of Americans, 57 percent, disapproves of the way Obama is handling the economy, while only 42 percent approve. And a growing number of Americans, 44 percent, believes the economy is getting worse, the largest percentage in more than two years.

Conan O'Brien is excited that Donald Trump is still threatening to run for president, "Everyone else says they may or may not, he threatens to run."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:50 when Trump explains away two Hawaiian newspapers that announced President Obama's birth in 1961.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. In Wisconsin, the possibility of a Supreme Court race recount has both sides posturing, while an S&P report has Democrats and Republicans in Washington posturing over the debt. And 2012 VP intrigue is already heating up -- on television, at least. Here's today's rundown:

6) A woman finally becomes vice president -- on television. HBO announced that Julia Louis-Dreyfus is set to play a senator who becomes vice president in a new comedy set to debut in 2012, just in time for the campaign season. The show is created by Armando Iannucci of "In the Loop."

5) Tax day has come and gone, and President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama on Monday reported an adjusted gross income of over $1.7 million for 2010, down from $5.5 million in 2009. Most of their income came from sales of the president's books. They paid over $453,000 in federal taxes and donated over $245,000 to 36 charities. They each also contributed $3 to the Presidential Election Campaign Fund.

4) Continuing its "Drive To 25" offensive, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will launch a new paid advertising and grassroots campaign that goes after House Republicans who voted for House Budget Chair Paul Ryan's budget proposal last week, saying they voted to end Medicare. One radio ad says, "Did you know Congressman Chip Cravaack voted to end Medicare forcing seniors to pay $12,500 for private health insurance, without guaranteed coverage? Tell Cravaack to keep his hands off our Medicare."

Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.) officially has a Democratic challenger, as state Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian announced Monday that he will run against the embattled congressman in the 1st District Democratic primary.

"My name is Brad Avakian and I'm running to be Northwest Oregon's next Congressman," Avakian said in a statement posted on his website. "This race is about two things: what our community needs and how it can be best represented."

Avakian has reportedly been frequently mentioned as a potential candidate against Wu. The Willamette Week reported earlier this month that Avakian hired Jake Weigler, who managed Sen. Ron Wyden's (D) 2010 reelection campaign, as his political adviser.

"I love my current job -- helping Oregon businesses succeed and protecting the rights of all Oregonians. But these are principles that my district needs an effective representative to pursue in Congress," Avakian added.

Avakian was elected to the Oregon House in 2002 and to the Oregon Senate in 2006, according to his biography on the state's Bureau of Labor and Industries website. He was first appointed Labor Commissioner in April 2008 to fill a vacancy, and was elected to a full term in November 2008.

West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) is hitting the airwaves this week with her first television ad in the gubernatorial race, a 30-second spot that casts her as an opponent of political perks and wasteful government spending.

"Growing up on a farm nothing is wasted, you learn to do more with less," says Tennant in the ad, which was produced by Adelstein Liston & McKenna Pihalja and will begin running Clarksburg media market on Thursday. "As Secretary of state, I cut outdated programs and excess spending. As Governor, I'll end political perks. No more wasteful travel and fancy offices," she goes on to say.

"Some politicians think it is okay to use our money as their own. I just think that's... wrong," she says in closing.

When asked who Tennant is referencing to in the ad when she speaks of wasteful spending and political perks, a spokesperson simply said she was referring to the "politics as usual that we often see in state government."

It's very early in the cycle, and much can change in the coming months, but there were some noteworthy takeaways from Senate candidates' first quarter fundraising figures. Here's a look at a few of the quarter's winners and losers:

Winners:

Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R): Despite ethics issues that have cropped up, Haridopolos brought in a sizable $2.6 million haul. That's more than Sen. Bill Nelson (D), who pulled in nearly $2 million and had help from both President Obama and Vice President Biden. Haridopolos, likely to face a bruising primary against former Sen. George LeMieux (R) and former Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner (R), will certainly need the money.

Sens. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) and Richard Lugar (R-Ind.): Both Republicans are likely to face tough primaries. Lugar already faces a formidable opponent in state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R), but he clearly won the period financially, raising over $973,000 and ending the quarter with over $3 million cash on hand while Mourdock raised just $158,000. Sure, Mourdock started his campaign in the middle of the quarter, but those numbers are still low.

Meanwhile, Snowe has two gadfly challengers in the primary, and she's given anyone else considering jumping in the race something more to think about. Snowe raised $877,000 and ended the quarter with $2.05 million cash on hand. Snowe's fundraising is well ahead of where it was heading at a comparable point during her 2006 campaign.

Democratic Incumbents: Democrats face a tough map this cycle. But during the first quarter, incumbents potentially vulnerable to a strong challenges held their own, posting seven-figure hauls in key places. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) bested his opponent, Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.), a top GOP recruit, raising more than $1.1 million to Rehberg's $580,000. When money transferred over from Rehberg's Congressional campaign committee is taken into account, he has a little over $932,000 in his account; Tester has over $1.4 million.

David Letterman thinks Donald Trump missed the birthers bandwagon, "So now Donald Trump is screaming and yelling about Barack Obama's birth certificate. I say 'Donald, Donald. What about the birth certificate for that thing on your head?'"

Bill Maher, on Trump revealing whether he'll run for president on the season final of The Celebrity Apprentice: "Nothing says your serious about running the country like standing shoulder to shoulder with Gary Busey, Hulk Hogan, Stuttering Jon and Meat Loaf."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:00 to see why it's important to look busy at work.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. It looks like embattled Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.) will be getting his first primary challenger, while in New Mexico, we will soon know whether Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) will be joined by another primary challenger in the race for retiring-Sen. Jeff Bingaman's (D) seat. Plus, President Obama will hit the road while the debt ceiling debate heats up. Here's today's rundown:

7) Happy tax day. Half of Americans believe the amount they pay in federal income taxes is too high, while 43 percent consider it about right and 4 percent too low, according to a new Gallup poll.

6) Emmer-lasting love? Not quite. Republicans in Minnesota reelected Tony Sutton to a second term as state party chairman Saturday and selected two new members of the Republican National Committee. Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson defeated 2010 gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer in one race. Former Auditor Pat Anderson won the other seat.

5) New Mexico Auditor Hector Balderas (D) will announce whether he is running for Bingaman's seat within two weeks, he wrote on his Facebook page Friday. Heinrich is already in the race, as is former Rep. Heather Wilson (R). Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) is giving the race strong consideration and Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) hasn't definitively ruled out a bid.

House Republican freshmen entered office with a mandate to cut spending, but some of their early fundraising totals suggest they're showing similar fiscal discipline with their campaign accounts.

As a whole, Republicans had a decent first fundraising quarter. The 87 GOP freshmen raised an average of $180,000 in the first three months of 2011 -- a respectable total. Among the 30 of them in competitive districts that President Obama carried in 2008, the average was somewhat higher, at $213,000.

The average haul of the 15 House Democrats in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline program, designed to protect their most vulnerable members, was $242,000 this quarter. The 13 House Republicans representing districts both Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Obama won averaged just $204,000 for the quarter.

But the averages obscure some telltale signs of weakness among individual members. At least three targeted Republican freshmen raised less than $100,000 for the quarter, and ten raised less than $150,000 -- a Mendoza line for House fundraising. By contrast, the worst performance among targeted House Democrats when they held the majority last cycle was that of former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.), who only raised $130,000 at this point in 2009.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- The first quarter deadline for filing fundraising reports with the Federal Election Commission has come and gone, and in Missouri, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) followed up weeks of scrutiny and criticism over her past use of a private plane by revealing she raised over a million dollars during the first quarter, with nearly $1.8 million in the bank. The GOP field meanwhile, was very unimpressive: Republican Ed Martin raised just $162,000, while former Treasurer Sarah Steelman raised a lackluster $186,000.

The Republican who put up the best figures isn't even in the race -- at least not yet. Rep. Todd Akin (R), who is mulling a Senate bid, ended the period with over $900,000 in the bank.

-- House Budget Chair Paul Ryan's budget proposal passed in the House on Friday as expected. Only four Republicans voted against it, including Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.), who is in a tough Senate race. Rehberg's decision to tack to the middle on the issue in a state with many seniors illustrates how politically risky the Medicare changes in Ryan's plan can be for some Republicans.

But at the same time, the fact that nearly all the House Republicans -- including those from marginal districts -- voted for the Ryan plan showed they believe it's a risk worth taking.

-- Both Republicans and the media questioned House Speaker John Boehner's leadership and ability to wrangle in his party as he worked to secure votes for the budget compromise this week. And while the budget passed, no one inside the Beltway was saying the vote was a victory for Boehner. Questions about Boehner’'s leadership also fueled speculation about the looming battle over raising the debt ceiling; potential Republican infighting over the debt ceiling could be real trouble for the Speaker.

--The timing of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty'’s (R) opposition to the budget compromise –that cut less than most conservatives and tea party types wanted –was well calculated and may prove politically advantageous. Fresh off his surprising criticism of the deal on Thursday, Pawlenty spent Friday preaching his doctrine of fiscal conservatism during two high profile appearances at Tax Day Tea Party rallies, one in New Hampshire and one in Boston.

-- The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee continued its hot recruiting streak, with Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) announcing her Senate candidacy. With the Indiana redistricting proposal making Rep. Joe Donnelly's (D-Ind.) district much more Republican, he could potentially be the Democrats' next Senate get. Meanwhile, there's still no big name on the horizon in Massachusetts.

It looks like the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's secret recruit in the Texas Senate race has been unveiled.

McClatchy reports that it's likely none other than former Iraq commander Ricardo Sanchez, who was forced out of his military post in 2004 after the Abu Ghraib scandal. Sanchez retired from the military in 2006.

"I would describe myself as during my military career as supporting the president and the Constitution," Sanchez told the paper. "After the military, I decided that socially, I'm a progressive, a fiscal conservative and a strong supporter, obviously, of national defense."

DSCC Chair Patty Murray, at a briefing Thursday, announced that the open Texas Senate seat, vacated by retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) was one of the six GOP-held seats that Democrats planned to aggressively target. She hinted the committee had a candidate in mind, but didn't disclose his identity.

Following last weekend's down-to-the-wire budget deal, Sunday's political roundtables will focus primarily on the economy, the dueling plans to reduce the deficit, and how these economic factors will affect the 2012 election cycle.

NBC's "Meet the Press" and ABC's "This Week" will both host Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner for a discussion on the state of the U.S. economy and Geithner's take on President Obama's plan to reduce the deficit. "Meet" will also talk with a roundtable that includes former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), Random House EVP Jon Meacham and PBS' Tavis Smiley, to discuss how the economy and budget debates will affect the 2012 campaign.

"This Week" puts together a Tea Party panel that includes Reps. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.), Steve Southerland (R-Fla.), Renee Ellmers (R-N.C.) and Allen West (R-Fla.).

Staying on the economy, CBS' "Face the Nation" hosts House Budget Chair Paul Ryan to talk about his controversial plan to reduce the deficit and to get his thoughts on Obama's plan, which was unveiled Wednesday. CBS also talks to Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), who sits on the Senate's Budget Committee. While "FOX News Sunday" host Chris Wallace speaks with Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) and Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.).

FOX News will also discuss the recent trend of airport traffic controllers falling asleep on the job with Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.

CNN will discuss the battle over the budget, the debt ceiling and cutting the deficit with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.). The discussion will turn to nation's rising gas prices with former Shell Oil president John Hofmeister and the latest situation in Libya with former CIA director Ret. Gen. Michael Hayden. CNN will also air part two of Candy Crowley's interview with potential GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Get the full listings after the jump.

The election results in the heated Wisconsin Supreme Court race have been finalized following the county canvassing process, and Republican-backed Justice David Prosser has defeated the Democratic favored candidate, Assistant Attorney General JoAnne Kloppenburg by 7,316 votes.

During the county vote canvassing process following the April 5th election, a spreadsheet in a GOP-heavy county error netted Prosser over 7,500 votes, which helped him build his lead in a race contest that appeared much closer a day after the polls closed in Wisconsin.

The 7,316 figure is notable because it means Prosser's margin of victory falls within the one half of one percent threshold that allows Kloppenburg to request a recount at no charge. She must do so by 5 p.m. next Wednesday.

Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.), running for the Senate against Sen. Jon Tester (D), was one of four House Republicans who voted against Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) budget compromise on Friday, saying the measure was "rushed through" as he cautioned against changes to Medicare without further inquiry and input.

"Regardless of which party wants to change Medicare, either Democrats with Obamacare or Republicans through this budget proposal, it's always been my approach to listen directly to Montanans prior to any vote," Rehberg said in a statement. "It's being rushed through with little to no public input. That's just plain wrong."

The Ryan budget plan was released on April 5 and includes significant changes to Medicare, including converting the program into a voucher-based system for people younger than 55.

"This budget -- the first one we have even considered in two years -- has a lot of good things in it that I fully support. But there are still too many unanswered questions with regard to Medicare reform, and I simply won't support any plan until I know for a fact that Montana's seniors will be protected," Rehberg said.

It's unlikely that either Rehberg or Tester will be challenged in their respective primaries by notable opponents, so they are ostensibly already running a general election campaign. Without pressure on his right, there is incentive for Rehberg to try to stake out ground in the middle, including among those who are not in favor of the changes to Medicare.

And seniors make up 14.5 percent of Montana's population, according to the 2009 American Community Survey one-year estimate, which was higher than the national figure of 12.9 percent. Democrats are casting the plan as an attack on seniors.

One of the weaker fundraising among House Republicans this quarter came from freshman Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-N.Y.), who scored one of the most surprising upsets in last year's midterms.

In her first quarterly filing, Buerkle didn't even cross the six-figure threshold, reporting just $65,150 in contributions and ending the quarter with $110,672 in the bank. She still holds onto $15,000 in debt, the same she had at the end of the year.

She only received contributions from 13 individual donors - one of them, the district's former congressman James Walsh. But he gave only $250, far from the maximum that individuals are permitted to donate. Individual contributions made up just $7,345 of her total, while $54,000 came from PACs.

The low total is a worrisome sign for Buerkle's re-election prospects. New York has to eliminate two seats in redistricting, and the Syracuse-based seat is an attractive target to draw into a neighboring district.

Former Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei, has already been talking about a rematch and is expected to decide in the next few months. At this same point in the 2010 cycle, just after winning the seat in 2008, Maffei raised over $433,453.

Buerkle only won the seat by 648 votes against Maffei in one of the closest House elections last year.

Acting West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) released his first television spot Friday, contrasting the budget drama of other states to what he characterizes as the stability of West Virginia under his leadership. The ad opens with tumultuous scenes of Wisconsin protests before going into a montage of headlines on Tomblin's budget-related accomplishments. The ad, produced by Struble Eichenbaum Communications, is titled "Two Priorities."

"While other states are billions in debt and raising taxes --" one announcer begins, "West Virginia is stable and strong," another concludes. The ad, focused on fiscal issues throughout, ends with Tomblin saying "As governor, I have two priorities. Create jobs, and lower taxes."

Tomblin is the Democratic frontrunner , leading the field in polls and fundraising. The campaign plans to stay on the air through the primary. He's the fourth Democratic candidate to go on the air -- he joins state House Speaker Rick Thompson (D), Treasurer John Perdue (D) and acting state Senate President Jeff Kessler (D). The only major Democratic candidate who hasn't run a TV ad yet is Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D), who is expected to launch her first ad soon.

The gubernatorial primary, May 14, is now under a month away.

One of the weaker fundraising efforts in the House this quarter - at least for a member facing the prospect of a competitive race -- comes from freshman Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), who only raised $30,000 in the first three months of the year.

In fact, his fundraising haul was so unimposing that he was outraised by the congressman he defeated, former Rep. Alan Grayson (D), even though he's not currently an active candidate for 2012. Grayson's campaign account brought in $38,000 - most from small donations from dozens of donors apparently hoping he'll mount a comeback.

Webster currently represents an Orlando-area district that has been closely contested in the last several elections. It gave President Obama 52 percent of the vote, though the district lines will likely be altered in the upcoming redistricting.

It's official: We now have our first incumbent-versus-incumbent matchup of 2012, thanks to redistricting.

With proposed maps in Iowa expected to be signed soon by Gov. Terry Branstad (R), Rep. Tom Latham (R) announced Friday he will run in the newly-created 3rd District, pitting him against Rep. Leonard Boswell (D).

Iowa lost one of its five House seats in the reapportionment last year, forcing a game of musical chairs with its members. Latham and Boswell will now be fighting over that final seat.

"I have never let map boundaries block the great honor I have felt in representing the interests of all Iowans in the United States Congress. And, after thoughtful discussions with my family, friends and supporters over the past two weeks, I am writing to share with you my decision that I will be a candidate for Congress in Iowa's new Third Congressional District in 2012," Latham wrote in an email to supporters.

The move spares Republicans a bitter primary battle which would have put Latham up against Rep. Steve King (R) in the new 4th District. And Republicans are optimistic that they can defeat Boswell in his new district, thanks to the realignment. Branstad easily won what will be the newly-reshaped district in last year's elections, while President Obama narrowly won it with 52 percent of the vote.

"My residence in Sac County left me little choice in what District I would seek to represent beginning in 2013, but I am pleased that the residents of the southern part of my current district will have the opportunity to choose Tom Latham as their representative in Congress," King said in a statement. "It has been a privilege for me to serve alongside Congressmen Latham in the House, and I am confident the residents of the new Fourth and Third districts will see fit to return us to Congress in 2012 to continue our work on their behalf."

It's also a high-stakes move that could allow Republicans to pick up a seat in Iowa - a move that national Republican officials embraced.

Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.) will not challenge Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in 2012, the former congressman announced in a statement Friday.

"After serious consideration and many discussions with friends and supporters, Diane and I have made the decision that I will not be a candidate for the United States Senate in 2012," Hoekstra said in a statement posted to his firm's website Friday. "This was an extremely difficult decision for us to make as we saw strong points both for and against running. However, in our final analysis, we agreed that it was not in the best interest of our family at this time to enter the race."

Hoekstra ran for governor in 2010, but lost in the primary to now-Gov. Rick Snyder (R). Earlier this year, Hoekstra joined Washington law and lobbying firm Dickstein Shapiro LLP.

Hoekstra's decision is welcome news for Stabenow, as he would have been a formidable contender had he entered the race. But others are still contemplating the race, including former Michigan GOP chair Saul Anuzis and former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.

Anuzis, who became a strong fundraiser as state party chairman but who has not run for major office, seems unlikely to run because of financial considerations. He told Hotline On Call during CPAC that he does not have great personal wealth, and it would be difficult for him to forgo an income for an extended period of time while campaigning for Senate. Meanwhile, Land is rumored to be burned out after more than decade in electoral politics, and is also thought to be leaning against running.

The Texas Tribune's Ross Ramsey makes an important point that often gets overlooked in the discussion about rapid Hispanic growth across the country.

As the newly-released 2010 Census figures illustrate, the growth among Latinos across the country is impressive and has made battleground Southwestern states more Democratic in recent years. Democrats, like Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray are openly talking about contesting Texas in next year's Senate election.

But growth isn't the same as voter participation. And Hispanics aren't participating at nearly the same rate as non-Hispanics - and there are few signs that's changing anytime soon.

Ramsey points to his home state of Texas as an example. The population of the Republican-friendly Dallas suburb of Collin County (782,341) is about the same as the Democratic-friendly, heavily-Hispanic El Paso County (800,647). But voter turnout last year was nearly twice as high in Collin County than in El Paso, 156,668 to 88,505.

It's a similar situation in Arizona, where Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) found himself in a surprisingly close contest last year, even though his district is majority-Hispanic and solidly Democratic. But voter participation there was just under 160,000 - one of the lowest totals in any House district in the country - meaning a relatively small proportion of Latinos actually showed up at the polls.

It's something to consider as we look at the presidential battlegrounds, where President Obama is counting on significant Hispanic turnout and support to contest pivotal states like Florida, Nevada, Colorado and even Arizona. Democrats have been more effective at registering Hispanic voters in Nevada, but less so in Arizona and Texas where turnout has been anemic in many of the heavily-Hispanic seats.

And it's a sign that voter registration and education is as important for the president's re-election as voter persuasion.

The Daily Show's John Oliver is amazed when Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, reveals his skill at ventriloquy, "How, how do you keep winning elections?"

Jay Leno is still surprised that Vice President Biden managed to fall asleep during President Obama's speech: "Imagine if Al Gore or John Kerry had been speaking, Biden would be in a comma."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:35 for a look at Kucinich's improbable success.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Congress passed the budget compromise Thursday, while the House looks ahead to a vote today on the Ryan budget proposal. Plus, if you want another sign of how close the Senate race in Montana is likely to be, take a look at the latest fundraising reports from the candidates. Meanwhile, the onion versus corn debate heats up. Here's today's rundown:

8) The debate du jour: New York state Sen. Cathy Young (R) is polling New Yorkers on her website, asking them what should be the state vegetable -- onion or sweet corn.

7) Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is slated to be in Florida today, and Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.), who was a co-chair of Romney's 2008 campaign, will endorse him again.

6) Retired U.S. Navy Comdr. Kirk Lippold on Thursday became the second Republican to enter the race for Rep. Dean Heller's (R-Nev.) 2nd District seat. Republican Sharron Angle is already in the race. Lippold is known for being the former top officer of the USS Cole when it was bombed by al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen a decade ago.

Meanwhile, as Hotline On Call reported Thursday, former Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D-N.H.) announced she will run again for the seat that she lost last year to Rep. Frank Guinta (R).

Former Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D-N.H.) announced Thursday that she will run again for the seat that she lost last year to Rep. Frank Guinta (R).

"During my two terms serving the good people of New Hampshire's First District, I always worked for what I call the bottom 99% of Americans, and I never forgot that public office is a public trust," Shea-Porter wrote in an e-mail to supporters.

"I was honored to pass legislation to help active duty soldiers and veterans, families, working men and women, senior citizens, and students. I am running again because I believe we must keep America the land of opportunity and fairness for your children and mine."

Her announcement comes the same day Guinta announced a strong first quarter of fundraising, bringing in $200,000. Fundraising was never a strong suit of Shea-Porter's,and Guinta even noted that his take in the first three months in office was more than his two predecessors combined. And Shea-Porter's 11-point loss was more decisive then some other candidates looking to run again, especially after two elections of close races in more Democratic-friendly years.

The former two-term congresswoman is the second defeated member to make their comeback official, following former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's (D-Ariz.) announcement last month that she'll be running for her old seat as well.

Several other former members are also looking seriously at running again, as part of a recruitment push from DCCC Chair Steve Israel. Former Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Pa.) is eyeing another run, as are former Reps. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) and Dan Maffei (D-N.Y.).

What makes Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) different from Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.)? They are both Democratic Members of Congress who are running for open Senate seats, but so far just one of them has landed the endorsement of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

"In Shelley Berkley's case, we went out to Nevada -- this was one of the states that I knew we could win," DSCC chair Patty Murray said Thursday. "Because I looked at it, Harry Reid made it through an extremely tough election campaign, the changing demographics of the state, the state of play within that race, and because we had a great field of candidates and Shelley being one of them, we really did our homework there."

So what about New Mexico?

"New Mexico ... is an open Democratic seat, that is a retiring Democrat, and there is a number of people who are looking at that race, and it is a Democratic seat where I believe we are going to win," Murray said.

But it's still an open seat, same as Nevada. It's not as if a Democratic incumbent is in either race. Heinrich is the only Democrat in the New Mexico race right now, but state Auditor Hector Balderas and Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.) remain possibilities for the race. Either could potentially give Heinrich a strong challenge. In contrast, while Berkley faces a well-funded primary opponent in businessman Byron Georgiou, he is viewed as a nuisance by the DSCC.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray said she plans to expand the 2012 Democratic playing field Thursday, highlighting six GOP-held Senate seats she believes Democrats can win.

The Republican-held seats where Murray said the DSCC is "aggressively recruiting" candidates in are Massachusetts, Nevada, Indiana, Maine, Arizona and Texas. She said the races are either in states where Democrats hold an advantage, states where shifting demographics play in their favor, or contests featuring "bloody" Republican primaries.

The DSCC landed its top recruit in Nevada Thursday, when Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) came forward to officially enter the Senate race. Murray said, after meeting with several interested candidates, she concluded that Berkley would be the strongest candidate to run against Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) - and will be receiving the committee's endorsement.

She's hoping that conservative threats against Sens. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) and Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) will provide openings for Democratic candidates. Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) is considering running for the Indiana seat, and she called him a strong prospective candidate.

"I don't have the NRSC's problem. I don't have bloody primaries in half of our tough races," Murray said.

Murray added the DSCC had identified a candidate to run in the open Texas Senate race -- a state that has voted reliably Republican in recent years - but didn't disclose the name of the candidate.

The tragic January shooting that critically wounded Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) and took the lives of several others changed Arizona's political landscape, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray said Thursday.

"None of us can predict what Congresswoman Giffords will do and we are giving her and her family all due respect to recover from a very serious trauma and that's where we should be," said Murray at Thursday morning briefing. "But what happened to Gabby Giffords changed the political landscape of Arizona. And I know that we will have a Democratic candidate there."

Murray suggested the way voters view the electoral process has also changed, as a result of what happened to Giffords.

"Both it changed the climate of the voters and how they view the process, but the dynamics have changed as well," Murray added.

Murray identified Arizona as one of her "Six in '12" -- Republican-held seats that Murray thinks Democrats have an opportunity to win, because of past statewide Democratic success, shifting demographics, and the prospect of bloody GOP primaries in those states. The other five states Murray mentioned are Massachusetts, Nevada, Indiana, Maine, and Texas.

A top aide to House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy on Thursday suggested Republicans who have problems with the continuing resolution hitting the floor Thursday are committing a sin akin to Jane Fonda heading to Vietnam.

In an email to chiefs of staff sent Thursday morning, Pete Meachum, McCarthy's director of member services, forwarded a link to a Weekly Standard post praising the continuing resolution. Those who are using opposition to the resolution to better position themselves are hurting the fight, he implied.

"For the handwringers out there, buck up," Meachum wrote. "For those seeking other office please campaign at home, not on the backs of your colleagues."

Meachum linked the last four words to this website featuring photos of "Jane Fonda A.K.A. Hanoi Jane."

In a follow-up email sent an hour later, Meachum acknowledged he had crossed the line. "Upon rereading the email I sent this morning. I realize I stepped over the line. I sincerely apologize, my email was not approved by anyone in our office or Mr. McCarthy. Please speak to me personally if you'd like to discuss further," he wrote.

Updated 11:10 a.m. with Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) as a no

As Congress zeroes in on a Thursday vote on the budget compromise for the rest of the 2011 fiscal year struck late last week that would cut over $38 billion in spending, some Members in both chambers are beginning to voice their opposition to the measure. Some Republicans feel the cuts don't go far enough, while some Democrats are not happy with the effects of some of the cuts in the package.

Last week, 70 members of the House, including 28 Republicans, voted against the 5-day bridge continuing resolution that kept the federal government running. Here's a list of Members in both Chambers who have committed to voting no on the budget compromise:

House:

Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) (per National Journal's Humberto Sanchez)
Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) (Report)
Rep. Dean Heller (Statement)
Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) (MSNBC)
Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.) (Report)
Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) (Report)
Rep. Jesse Jackson (D-Ill.) (Report)
Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) (Report)
Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.) (Report)
Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) (Told NPR)
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) (Report)
Rep. Billy Long (R-Mo.) (per National Journal's Ben Terris)
Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) (Report)
Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.) (Hotline reporting)
Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.) (Report)
Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) (Report)
Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas)(Report)
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) (Report)
Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) (Report)
Rep. Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) (Report)
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) (Report)
Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.) (Statement)

Senate:

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) (Statement)
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) (Statement)
Sen. James Risch (R-Idaho) (Report)
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) (Statement)
Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) (Report)

Other Notables:

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who says he might vote against the deal, according to The Hill.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) discussed the budget deal vote on FNC's "On the Record" on Tuesday. "I don't intend to vote for it," he said. "I'm negotiable, just not on terms that certain people are wanting to negotiate on at this point."

Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) said Sunday, "I think John Boehner got a good deal, but it's probably not good enough for me to support it."

Updated 12:29 p.m.

Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) will run for the seat vacated by retiring Sen. John Ensign (R), she said Thursday, giving Democrats a top recruit in a race that already features a marquee Republican in Rep. Dean Heller (R).

"The problem in Washington is that Republicans like Dean Heller are clinging to extreme ideology rather than working on solutions that address the challenges facing our state," Berkley said in a statement. "As I talk to Nevadans across our state I hear one priority: jobs, jobs, jobs."

Berkley's decision ends months of very public pondering that had some wondering whether she would even make the race. Berkley spent time in northern, more rural parts of the state during a listening tour earlier this year, and she released a survey from Democratic pollster Mark Mellman that showed her leading Heller by four points.

The clash between sitting members is likely to be expensive. And that's not unusual for a bellwhether like Nevada; Sen. Harry Reid (D) spent $24 million in 2010 against Republican nominee Sharron Angle, who also spent $24 million. Already, Berkley has about $1.5 million in the bank after raising $700,000 in the last quarter. Heller has not said how much he has on hand.

But before she gets to a general election, Berkley has to make it through next year's Democratic primary. Byron Georgiou, a Nevada businessman, is already in the race, and he's proving to be no gadfly. Georgiou has already posted a big quarter, bringing in $1.1 million, including a $500,000 personal loan. Reid and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will back Berkley, chairwoman Patty Murray said at a briefing with reporters on Thursday.

Members of Congress in both parties believe that House Speaker John Boehner gained the most from the deal he struck with President Obama on the continuing resolution, according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

A plurality of Democratic members of Congress and the overwhelming number of Republicans believe that spending caps and entitlement reforms will be attached to the debt limit increase, according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Updated at 1:26 p.m.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has slashed the once-imposing debt it held by 60 percent in just three months and is now just $8 million in the red after having $19.5 million in debt this January.

That paydown now puts them on par with their GOP counterparts. The National Republican Congressional Committee is now also $8 million in the red - although they outraised the DCCC for March, pulling in $10.2 million to the DCCC's $10 million.

The DCCC's first quarter total is still $1.5 million higher than the NRCC's - with Democrats raising a total of $19.6 million to the Republican's $18.1 million - but the NRCC has nearly double the DCCC's cash on hand. The NRCC has $9.05 million in the bank while the DCCC ends with $4.6 million.

Both committees boasted of their record cash totals. While the DCCC touted the first three months as their best off-year first quarter ever, the NRCC said their haul was their best first quarter since 2006 and their March cash total was their best ever in a non-election year. It's also the first month this year the NRCC has out-raised the DCCC. The NRCC held their annual fundraising dinner on March 30 just at the close of the quarter, where they received more than $10 million in pledges for the year.

Even with Republicans holding more in the bank, the DCCC has reason for excitement in paying down their debt after suffering wide losses last fall, and pointed to online fundraising and member contributions as key reasons for their strong quarter that enabled them to inch back toward the black. In March, they raised more than $1.2 million from online supporters, and on March 31, the final day of the quarter, received the most online contributions in the committee's history.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee makes impressive fundraising progress, while a committee could decide the date of Florida's presidential primary. Meanwhile, a sitting senator gets outraised by his upstart challenger. Here's today's rundown:

8) West Virginia acting state Senate President Jeff Kessler (D), lagging in polls and fundraising, is up with his first TV spot of the gubernatorial campaign. The ad, produced by EM Media, focuses on how he would tackle economic issues as governor.

7) Former Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) made his first speech in Washington since he left the Senate Wednesday, and he was critical of Democrats for failing to protect civil liberties and Republicans for going after workers' bargaining rights.

He was in Washington to receive the Ridenhour Courage Prize, in recognition of his dedication to fighting for campaign finance reform. Before the speech, Feingold sat down with reporters to discuss his own political future, the ongoing political turmoil in Wisconsin, and the national debate over the budget. Check out Hotline On Call's write-up of what Feingold said.

6) Louisiana lawmakers, in the final hours of a special redistricting special session, finally agreed on a plan to shrink Louisiana's seven congressional districts to six and sent the measure to Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), who said he will sign it into law. The plan also needs the approval of the Justice Department to ensure that it does not dilute minority voting strength.

5) President Obama offered a detailed economic plan in a speech Wednesday, vowing to cut $4 trillion in federal spending over 12 years. Obama also called for Congress to commit to automatic, across-the-board spending cuts and tax increases if an initial target is not met by 2014.

Stephen Colbert is shocked that former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty said he was running for president on CNN's Piers Morgan Tonight, "Declaring your candidacy for president is supposed to be special. You only get to do it once, so you want to wait for that perfect journalist to share it with. Not just give it up to the first guy who asks."

Jimmy Kimmel isn't sure President Obama's plan to reduce the national debt to is going to work.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00 when Vice President Biden gets bored during Obama's speech.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) announced the creation of a "testing the waters" committee Wednesday night, a step short of forming a presidential exploratory committee, but nonetheless the former Pennsylvania senator's first formal undertaking of his long-shot campaign for the nation's top job.

The committee will allow Santorum to formally raise money as a presidential candidate. Speaking on Fox News' "On the Record," the onetime Senate GOP leader said he will decide whether to shift his effort into a full-fledged campaign based on well he can do so successfully the next several weeks.

"Resources is a huge part of [running for president]," he said. "You have to find out whether it's real or not. You have to have the resources to make it happen."

The announcement was similar to one made by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in early March, when he announced he was exploring a run for president but didn't formally create an exploratory committee.

Santorum starts the effort if not on the fringe, then as a second-tier candidate trying to gain a foothold with the Republican electorate.

Whether the ex-senator can move into the top tier of the GOP field will hinge in part on his ability to convince Republican voters he is a credible candidate after losing re-election in his home state of Pennsylvania by nearly 20 points in 2006. The landslide defeat poses an obvious question: If he can't even manage to win in his home state, how can Santorum win a national election?

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has come out against the budget compromise that was reached late last week, putting him at odds with both Congressional Republican leaders and the White House, who worked to broker the deal.

"When you consider that the federal deficit in February alone was over $222 billion, to have actual cuts less than the $38 billion originally advertised is just not serious," Pawlenty said in a statement. "The fact that billions of dollars advertised as cuts were not scheduled to be spent in any case makes this budget wholly unacceptable. It's no surprise that President Obama and Senator Reid forced this budget, but it should be rejected. America deserves better."

Pawlenty also blasted the speech Obama delivered Wednesday, in which the president unveiled his framework to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 12 years.

"Today's speech was nothing more than window dressing. President Obama's lack of seriousness on deficit reduction is crystal clear when you look at the budget deal he insisted on to avoid a government shutdown. The more we learn about the budget deal the worse it looks," Pawlenty said.

Even though Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) hasn't decided whether he will run for reelection in 2012, former Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) is confident that he'll come around, and win.

"I assume he will run. I hope he'll run. I want him to run. I think he is an important person to provide balance for us in Wisconsin at this point," said Feingold, in a roundtable discussion with reporters in Washington on Wednesday.

"I believe that this is going to be a good election for the president, and I think, for Senator Kohl. I think any Republican that thinks this is 2010 all over again has got another guess coming. So I suspect that he'll run, and that he'll be reelected."

Wisconsin Republicans enjoyed a successful cycle in 2010, unseating Feingold, winning the open-seat gubernatorial race and picking up two seats in the U.S. House. But Feingold believes Wisconsin voters will have a case of buyer's remorse, which should help Democratic efforts in the state in 2012.

"We now see what we got. And we got was an irresponsible and sometimes heartless agenda," he said.

On the heels of a state election where Republicans picked up a U.S. House seat, took control of both the state House and Senate, and came close to winning a gubernatorial contest, one would think the GOP would have at least a decent shot in the state's 2012 Senate race with a Democrat up for reelection.

That is, unless the state being discussed is Minnesota and that Democrat happens to be Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D).

Klobuchar was elected to her first term in a landslide in 2006, defeating her Republican opponent by 20 points. She heads into 2012 with a very encouraging approval rating, statewide popularity and a notable lack of a formidable Republican challenger on the horizon; all at a time when many Senate Democrats are playing defense across the country.

"Clearly, it's going to be a formidable undertaking. I don't think there is any doubt about that," said Minnesota GOP strategist Gregg Peppin, of the challenge facing Republicans trying to unseat Klobuchar.

One key to Klobuchar's success has been her ability to sound bipartisan while still voting largely on party lines.

"You can't really classify her as a moderate, in that she is not near the Republicans in her voting behavior," said Carleton College political scientist Steven Schier. "But on the other hand, she has tried to find issues of modest magnitude where she can burnish her reputation as an effective senator, deal with issues that affect some aspects of her constituency, and work well with Republicans. And she has tried to do that, I think, more than a number of Democratic senators have."

A group of Democratic House campaign veterans are forming their own independent expenditure group aimed at countering the influence conservative groups played last cycle in congressional elections.

Spearheaded by a trio of former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee operatives, the House Majority PAC is launching this week with the goal to help win the back the House for Democrats. It's part of a larger effort of Democratic-aligned groups for the 2012 cycle, who were largely caught off-guard in 2010 by the heavy-spending of GOP-aligned groups such as American Crossroads.

Democratic groups outside of the traditional party committee structure have pledged to spend upwards of $120 million to influence the upcoming elections.

Ali Lapp will be the group's executive director, and for now is the only full-time staff member, although the group plans to expand. Lapp was the DCCC's campaign director during the 2006 campaign cycle, when Democrats successfully won the majority. She was also the longtime chief of staff to Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.).

"The House Majority PAC is committed to building a long-term organization that can take on the Republican outside groups in the battle for the House Majority," Lapp said in a statement. "Our objective is to help the Democrats win back the House. We will hold Republican incumbents and candidates accountable for their policies that take our country in the wrong direction."

Freshman Rep. Nan Hayworth (R-N.Y.) will report raising over $330,000 in the first quarter of 2011, according to figures obtained by Hotline On Call.

Thorough the end of March, Hayworth has raised $330,406 and has $332,780 cash on hand. According to a Republican aide who tracks campaigns, it's one of the most impressive first quarter hauls for a freshmen.

"It reflects her strong support as she fights to lower taxes, cut spending and reduce the size of government," said the GOP aide. "The fact that she is so well-positioned is going to make any Democrat think twice about challenging her."

Last November, Hayworth defeated two-term Democrat John Hall by more than 11,000 votes. But with the Empire State losing two seats, she could see her district radically altered. President Obama won the Hudson Valley district in 2008 with 51 percent, making it a top target Democrats want to reclaim. President George W. Bush took the area in 2004 with 54 percent.

House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy doesn't need to see the actual movie. He already smells a dud, even before President Obama gives an address on fiscal policy this afternoon at The George Washington University.

Obama "is just trying to reframe [the debate] because his first movie didn't work, so now he's filming the sequel," McCarthy said in an interview. "In history, the sequel isn't as good as the first one, and the first one was already a box office bomb."

"What I see is the president losing the argument. When in modern history have you seen a president trying to redefine a new budget?" McCarthy added.

The political picture is far more complicated. A small plurality of Americans say they prefer Obama's approach to cutting spending over Republicans in Congress, by a 48 percent to 43 percent margin, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey. But the poll has bad news for Republicans; fully 68 percent say the GOP's budget proposal will unfairly favor some groups over others, and 69 percent say Republican budget proposals will affect them personally.

Still, McCarthy said, the fact that Obama's policy address today will focus on further trimming the debt instead of new spending shows that Republican wins in 2010 have already had an impact.

"If you look at Washington itself and say, 'Did the election have an effect?' It's more so of a cultural change," McCarthy said. "To me, it's a pretty good victory in the sense that he's got to redefine, and he's abandoning a budget before he's even had a vote on it."

Getting a clear read on Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels's (R) plans for the 2012 presidential race based on his public comments is a difficult task. In an interview with the Indianapolis Star's editorial board Tuesday, Daniels offered an opaque line regarding the rest of the prospective Republican presidential field:

"I like all those folks. Odds are I'll wind up supporting one of 'em, so I've got nothing but good things to say about them," Daniels said.

Nonetheless, Daniels hints that the other potential candidates haven't focused on fiscal issues to the extent he would like to see. His responses during the question and answer session reinforce the notion that he's giving a campaign serious consideration. Daniels' interview with the paper is yet another reminder of the uncertainty and intrigue surrounding his potential candidacy. The Star has two writeups of the interview here and here.

Daniels has said he'll announce his decision soon after the state's legislative session ends on April 29. He's slated to deliver a speech in Washington at the American Enterprise Institute on May 4, where he'll discuss a focal point of his agenda, education.

Democrat Kathy Hochul will report raising over $350,000 through March 31 for the special election next month in New York's 26th District.

While the Erie County Clerk wasn't selected as her party's nominee until March 19, she had been raising money for a potential bid during nearly all of March through donations on her website. She filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission on March 8 and a statement of organization on March 11.

Hochul told Hotline On Call that haul came before her campaign held any fundraisers and was mostly from website donations and "calling people and reaching out to people."

"We've been raising money for a fairly short time," said Hochul. "I think it shows a message as well that there's a deep grassroots support up here from a lot of individual donors and organizations."

Hochul will still have an uphill battle in the GOP-leaning district against Republican Jane Corwin and independent candidate Jack Davis, who is running on the Tea Party line. Neither have yet reported their fundraising totals ahead of the May 24 special election, but they both have the ability to self-fund a campaign, and Davis has pledged to spend as much as $3 million of his own money in the race.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama gears up for a major economic address today, but he's already getting pressure from the left in advance of the speech. Meanwhile, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) posts a solid first quarter fundraising haul, and Charlie Crist is on a road to - somewhere. Here's today's rundown:

7) He's ba-ack! Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (I) confirmed that he had settled a lawsuit with the singer David Byrne after using a Talking Heads song in a campaign ad without permission. As part of his settlement, Crist posted a YouTube video apology.

6) Yes, no, maybe? Interviewing with CNN's Piers Morgan Tuesday evening, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) said "I'm running for president." When asked if he was making an official announcement, Pawlenty responded, "Well, I've got an exploratory committee up and running and we'll have a final or full announcement on that in the coming weeks here."

Minnesota Public Radio has the transcript of the exchange here. The reality is: Aside from semantics, Pawlenty is running full throttle for president - and is ramping up with some high-profile hires.

On that front, Pawlenty announced that Jon Seaton will join the Pawlenty Presidential Exploratory Committee as National Political Director. During the 2010 campaign cycle, Seaton advised several GOP campaigns, including Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and freshman Rep. Randy Hultgren (R-Ill.).

5) Today, EMILY's List is adding 4 new GOP freshmen to its list of 2012 House targets:
Reps. Bob Dold (R-Ill.), Frank Guinta (R-N.H.), Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) and Steve Stivers (R-Ohio). They join Reps. Charlie Bass (R-N.H.), Chip Cravaack (R-Minn.), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Joe Heck (R-Nev.), and Allen West (R-Fla.), who were previously put "On Notice" by EMILY's List.

The women's group announced there were strong female recruits waiting in the wings in those four new seats, though no one has come forward yet. Former state Rep. Julie Hamos (D) is a potential challenger against Dold, and ex-Reps. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Ohio) and Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) may look to come back against Stivers and Guinta in 2012.

Stephen Colbert celebrates Sen. Jon Kyl's, R-Ariz., "ground breaking excuse-planation" on Twitter with #NotIntendedToBeAFactualStatement.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:45 to see Rep. Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., 3-D budget explanation. Then let us know what you think of Ryan's budget plan in our Late Night Poll.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Last year, Gerald McEntee, longtime president of the public-employees union AFSCME, trumpeted the fact his group spent roughly $90 million on the election. At the time, he said he wanted Republicans and Democrats alike to know AFSCME remained a mover-and-shaker, as if to warn the lawmakers not to cross the union.

If the anti-union measures pushed by new GOP governors Scott Walker and John Kasich are any indication, they didn't get the message. And now McEntee, in an interview with the New York Times, says he thinks his braggadocio played a role.

"Some of this is political payback," he told the paper. "The Republicans are thinking, 'The public sector unions are a major political force, and if we weaken them, that'll leave us with an awfully weakened Democratic Party.'"

Here's a November 2010 interview McEntee did with National Journal.

Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) has expressed confidence that Democrats will clear the primary field for her if she chooses to enter the Nevada Senate race. But one Democrat isn't cooperating.

Nevada businessman Byron Georgiou (D) raised $1.1 million during the first quarter, including $500,000 of his personal money, his campaign confirmed. Georgiou entered the race on March 3rd.

Nevada political guru Jon Ralston, who first tweeted the fundraising news, has warned before that Georgiou was resolved to run and had no plans to step aside, no matter who else decided to run. It now looks like, whether it's Berkley or another Democratic politician that ends up running, there will be a primary on the Democratic side.

The Republican side, on the other hand, seems set with Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) as the only major candidate. Perennial candidate Edward Hamilton said last week he plans to challenge Heller in the GOP primary. Though Heller declared his intention to run shortly after Sen. John Ensign (R) announced his retirement in 2012, Berkley has taken her time with the decision, conducting a poll and traveling outside her district. Berkley says she'll make a decision soon.

7:32 p.m. CLARIFICATION: The original version of this post did not mention Edward Hamilton, who also plans to run in the GOP primary.

Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R) is viewed by most observers as the presumptive front-runner in the race for retiring-Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R) seat. Even though he has not yet declared his intentions for the race, he has been eying the open seat contest. But as it turns out, he may also have another statewide office on his mind.

"I need to make a decision in June whether I'm going to run for the U.S. Senate in 2012 or stay right where I am and run for governor in 2014," Dewhurst said in an interview with Austin's KXAN television that aired Monday.

It's too early to read too much into Dewhurst's words, but if he does not run for Senate, he will open up the race for other Republicans including former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz. Williams and Cruz are battling for the support of conservatives and Tea Party voters, and Cruz has landed the endorsement of Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah). But former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert potentially stands to gains the most: he's built a sizeable war chest, has the ability to self-fund, and is viewed as more of an establishment Republican candidate.

As divisive a figure Donald Trump is, he doesn't hold a candle to Sarah Palin or former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republicans.

A new CNN/ORC poll finds that near-majorities of Republicans don't want to see Palin (47 percent) or Gingrich (45 percent) run for president. By contrast, 43 percent said the same thing about Trump, who has been gaining media attention lately by questioning whether President Obama was born in the United States.

Only 26 percent of Republicans said they would not like to see former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee run and just 28 percent said they would not like to see former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney run.

The poll showed Huckabee and Trump tied for the lead in the Republican primary field at 19 percent apiece.

National Journal Hotline, Washington's most comprehensive daily briefing on politics, will conduct a presidential straw poll at the Michigan Republican Party's 29th Biennial Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference, Chairman Bobby Schostak announced today. The conference will be held September 23-25, 2011.

"I am pleased to welcome National Journal Hotline and its journalists to the Mackinac Conference," Schostak said. "National Journal's coverage of Congress and public policy issues is among the most complete in Washington, D.C., and is read by millions."

"The Mackinac Conference is a key indicator of support in a state that will play a major role in the Republican nominating process," said Reid Wilson, editor in chief of National Journal Hotline. "National Journal Hotline will conduct a fair, independent, and transparent straw poll to gauge support of party activists at a time when candidates will be honing their final pitches to primary voters."

National Journal Hotline is the only publication that covers every Senate, House and gubernatorial race in the nation, making it an essential read for those who live and love the horse-race side of politics. The Hotline is what leaders follow for smart, reliable and comprehensive nonpartisan coverage of national, state and local political campaigns.

"The conference is where Republicans, independents, tea party members, and the media gather to discuss issues and public policies. As such, there will be intense, national media coverage of conversations large and small," Schostak said. "All eyes will be focused on Mackinac during the final weekend in September."

Sometimes, saying sorry is all it takes. But other times, it simply isn't enough.

Former Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) is about to find out which will be the case for him as he embarks on another Senate campaign in 2012.

Case announced Sunday that he is running for the seat being vacated by retiring-Sen. Daniel Akaka (D), jumping into a Democratic race that has the potential to become crowded, but has so far seen no other candidates. On the same day, Case revealed in an interview with the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that he recently apologized to Sen. Daniel Inouye (D), a man with whom his relationship has been rocky over the past few years.

"I apologized," Case told the Star-Advertiser. "I told him that I regretted very much the circumstances under which he has opposed me. And I apologized for any offense caused there.

In an interview with Hotline On Call Monday, Case elaborated on his discussion with Inouye.

"He did not want me to run against Sen. Akaka in 2006, and I think he took offense at that," Case said. "I went to him in part to discuss my candidacy with him, but also to try to clear the air with him."

"I have to assume that if he wasn't ready to accept my apology, the meeting would have terminated a lot earlier," said Case, with a chuckle.

Case said Inouye told him that he plans to remain neutral in the Democratic primary. "I think his assessment is that there are good potential candidates running in the Democratic primary and they would be -- I don't want to put words in his mouth -- but they would be worthy opponents of the Republican nominee and would make for good senators, so he doesn't feel a need to get involved in the primary," he said.

"I've been a loyal Democrat during my entire career and, as such, I want a Democrat to succeed Senator Akaka," said Inouye. "The primary election is for the voters to decide. I will not be publicly endorsing anyone. This is a tough, important race and Hawaii Democrats need to be ready to fight together for the good of the state. I will support and vote for the nominee that the people of Hawaii select, whoever it may be. But most importantly, we need a Democrat to replace Dan Akaka."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) made a low-profile announcement of his exploratory committee Monday and will now be crisscrossing the country to raise money. Senate candidates are releasing their first quarter fundraising numbers, and, who needs a bio page when you have Wikipedia? Here's today's rundown:

7) When he was in high school, Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Fla.) played in a band called "Mucus," a cover band that played tunes by the bands including R.E.M., Tom Petty and Journey.

6) Former Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-La.) says he is planning to run for state attorney general in the fall, challenging incumbent Buddy Caldwell, who recently switched to the Republican Party.

A press release announcing Cao's bid provides a link to "more bio information" -- on Cao's Wikipedia page.

5) Missouri Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster broke with his party on Monday and urged a federal judge to invalidate the central provision of the new health care law. Koster is a onetime Republican who switched to the Democratic Party in 2007. He faces reelection next year, and his conclusion -- that the provision requiring Americans to obtain coverage should be struck down, but not the rest of the law -- is sure to rankle members of his new party for going too far, but already has irked members of his old party, who say he didn't go far enough.

It's also a sign of the unpopularity of the health care law in Missouri, which has been trending in the GOP's favor lately.

Jon Stewart has three words for the media frenzy over the closely averted government shutdown, "I hate you."

Conan O'Brien on the $39 billion in cuts to the federal budget: "The good news: the first thing to go is the Real Housewives of DC."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:20 when David Letterman goes after possible presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

On Monday, Fox News released specific criteria for entry into a May 5th debate in South Carolina the network is co-hosting with the state Republican Party (the party sent out the same guidelines in a release on Friday), and some potential hopefuls will need to move quickly if they plan on attending.

The network outlines six requirements that must be met by 5 p.m. on April 29th. Among the requirements: that a candidate register a presidential exploratory committee or have announced a formal campaign for president.

On Friday, state party chair Karen Floyd announced that at least five candidates (former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer (R), and former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) are expected to participate in the debate.

So far, of the above names, just Pawlenty and Roemer meet the requirement.

Meanwhile, one candidate who is running for president - but was not on the official list released by the state party -- is Fred Karger, an openly gay Republican who is making his first run at political office. Karger wants to join the May 5 debate in Greenville and says he has reached out to state party executive director Joel Sawyer.

"I'm expecting to be invited," Karger told Hotline On Call. "I'm planning on attending," he added.

Get the full list of requirements after the jump.

Democratic consultant Kam Kuwata, a long-time fixture in California politics who served as Pres. Obama's program director during the 2008 Democratic National Convention, was found dead Monday morning, according to a Los Angeles Times report.

He was 57 years old. The cause of death is still being investigated, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Kuwata served as a lead consultant for Democratic candidates and causes in California and Hawaii, including work for Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii).

"I am deeply saddened at the passing of Kam Kuwata. California has lost a sharp political mind, and I've lost a loyal and dear friend of more than 20 years," Feinstein said in a statement. "Kam managed my first Senate campaign in 1992. We went through a lot together in those days, and no matter the circumstances, I could always rely on Kam's great sense of humor, his good advice and his compassion for the people of California."

Longtime Democratic strategist Darry Sragow said he met Kuwata in 1985 while serving together on the late Sen. Alan Cranston's (D-Calif.) re-election campaign. Sragow described Kuwata as someone who could be a "real pit bull" with a great sense of humor.

Mitt Romney, whose efforts to pitch himself as the most conservative Republican presidential candidate in 2008 fell short, is back for another try, announcing on Monday he will form an exploratory committee in advance of an anticipated presidential campaign.

Perhaps no other candidate could make an announcement as widely anticipated -- and anti-climactic -- as Romney. Widely anticipated because his fundraising prowess, organization and national profile makes him the presumptive frontunner. Anti-climactic because he began laying the groundwork for a second bid soon after bowing out of the 2008 Republican primary more than three years ago.

Romney's success in the business world could be his calling card if the campaign turns on who is best positioned to lead the U.S. out of the recession. His recent speeches have assailed President Obama's stewardship of the economy and emphasized that American exceptionalism is at stake. In a video announcing his candidacy, Romney touted that business experience much more than his tenure as governor of Massachusetts.

Romney's campaign has told donors his strategy centers on strong performances in New Hampshire and Nevada, two states in which he performed well in 2008. The team hopes to dampen expectations in Iowa, where Romney finished a disappointing second three years ago, and in South Carolina. Instead, the campaign aims to significantly outraise the rest of the Republican presidential field, enabling him to contest states that fall later in the primary calendar even if he stumbles early.

That fundraising prowess has already been on display. Romney's Free and Strong America was the fundraising leader in the 2010 election cycle among political action committees headed by likely presidential candidates. It raised about $9.2 million and gave away $1.3 million to candidates, building a reservoir of good will in key states.

And yet he faces serious questions about his campaign's viability. Romney's flip-flops on abortion and gay rights, as well as his Mormonism, have hindered his previous efforts to make inroads among religious conservatives. His biggest liability is widely considered to be the health care legislation he spearheaded as governor, a legacy Democrats gleefully touted by offering to "thank" Romney for his work on Tuesday, the bill's five-year anniversary.

Like the law that passed Congress that has become anathema among Republicans, the Massachusetts plan includes an "individual mandate" requiring most uninsured people to pay a penalty. Romney has drawn a contrast between the state law, which he defends, and a "one-size-fits-all plan for the entire nation," which he says should be repealed.

Get the full story on NationalJournal.com.

As Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) continues to mull a Senate bid, Indiana Republicans have released their proposal for new House district maps, and as most observers expected, Donnelly's 2nd District stands to become more Republican, per the South Bend Tribune:

The existing 2nd District stretches 90 miles from the state line to Kokomo. It includes all of LaPorte County, a Democratic stronghold that was important in Donnelly's slim victory over Republican Jackie Walorski in last year, and it covers only part of Republican-leaning Elkhart County.

The new 2nd District would include only part of LaPorte County, shedding Michigan City and the western part of the county. It also would lose Kokomo and pick up all of Elkhart County and part of Republican-heavy Kosciusko County.

One of the main factors in Donnelly's Senate versus House calculus is how his district is redrawn. In 2010, Donnelly narrowly defeated Walorski by just over 2,500 votes out of over 189,000 votes cast. What's more, Walorski, a former state representative, has already said she is running again in 2012.

A plurality of Americans credits President Obama and congressional Democrats for the 11th-hour agreement that averted a shutdown of the federal government, according to a new CNN poll released Monday.

Fully 48 percent of Americans think Obama and Democrats were more responsible for the agreement, while just 35 percent credit Republicans in Congress; 11 percent volunteered that both were responsible, and 3 percent said "neither." Three percent of Americans were undecided.

Despite the fact that his overall approval rating ticked two points lower since the last poll in mid-March, a majority of Americans, 54 percent, approves of how Obama handled the budget negotiations; 45 percent disapproves. Obama's overall job approval rating sank to 48 percent, with half saying they disapprove.

Notably, Obama scores better than congressional leaders from both parties. Equal majorities, 54 percent, disapprove of how leaders of each party handled the negotiations. In fact, House Speaker John Boehner now has an upside-down job approval rating: 41 percent of Americans approve of Boehner, while 43 percent disapprove.

Republican businessman Bill Maloney is up on television with his first spot as he seeks to upset former Secretary of State Betty Ireland in next month's GOP gubernatorial primary.

Maloney's 30-second spot, produced by Jonathan Poe of Rising Tide Media and titled "Reliable," features his 13-year old golden retriever Holly helping him make the point that he is a candidate who can be relied upon:

"For thirteen years, Holly's trip to the morning newspaper has been as reliable as the morning dawn. I'm Bill Maloney. That's the type of governor I'll be: reliable," Maloney says in the ad. Maloney co-founded a drilling business and the ad features an industrial scene.

Maloney is portraying himself as a conservative businessman who is not a career politician. "As a family man, you can rely on me to protect your values. As a businessman, you can rely on me to create the jobs on which our families depend," Maloney goes on to say in the ad.

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) announced Monday that he will report raising over $973,000 during the first three months of the year, and ended March with a healthy $3 million cash on hand. The sum gives Lugar a sizable financial leg up over his main GOP opponent, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R).

"I'm enthusiastic about a great campaign that our supporters are waging," Lugar said in a statement. "We started this campaign months ago because I wanted to be clear about my intention to seek reelection in 2012."

Mourdock, who is running to Lugar's right in the primary, officially launched his campaign in late February, and he told Politico in late March that he expects to report raising around $125,000 during his first month of his campaign.

Former Republican Governors Association executive director Nick Ayers will manage Tim Pawlenty (R)'s presidential campaign, Pawlenty's team announced Monday, giving the former Minnesota governor a prominent and sought-after talent for a key post.

But the roll-out has been handled in a strange way. Traditionally, a campaign's hiring of a top strategist involves everyone lauding the candidate. Ayers' announcement has been, in large part, more about the strategist than his new boss.

In an email explaining his decision, Ayers notes, in some detail, that he could have stayed on the sidelines, taken a lucrative position in the private sector, and watched the presidential race from afar. And he hinted strongly he's been courted by other contenders. He was careful to note his decision does not mean he thinks less of other potential candidates, including Gov. Haley Barbour (R), for whom he worked at the RGA during the last cycle.

"Over the past six months, I have prayed deeply about my purpose in life and how best to utilize the talents God has given me. I wanted my decision to be wholly about how best to serve Him, not what was most politically or financially expedient for my family and me. As He often does in walks of faith, He has called me to a higher purpose," Ayers wrote in an email to reporters.

National Journal announced Monday that it will cosponsor a Republican presidential primary debate with NBC News, the St. Petersburg Times, and the nonprofit Florida Council of 100 early next year in the Sunshine State.

The televised debate, which will be held at the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa, is expected to be the first major debate following the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. The quadrennial Republican National Convention will be held at the Times Forum later that year.

Florida has been a major player in past presidential elections, and it's gaining two electoral votes for a total of 29 -- tied for third-most in the nation -- in 2012.

Who will participate in the debate has not been determined. No Republican has officially entered the race, though many -- including Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- have toyed with the idea of a presidential run.

An official date for the debate has yet to be set.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. After a government shutdown was narrowly averted at the eleventh hour Friday, the debt ceiling debate is already taking shape. President Obama gears up for his own major economic address this week, while former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) brings on a major GOP operative. And an Olympic gold medalist has an important announcement of his own. Here's today's rundown:

8) Carl Lewis (yes, as in Olympic gold medalist Carl Lewis) sent out a press release Sunday indicating he will "be making an announcement regarding his political plans" Monday afternoon at 2 p.m. in Mount Holly, N.J. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Lewis has been courted by Democrats and is expected to run for the state Senate in the Garden State.

7) As we reported Sunday, former Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) will run for Sen. Daniel Akaka's (D) seat, six years after he challenged Akaka in the 2006 primary and irked the state's Democratic establishment and Sen. Daniel Inouye (D).

The Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported Sunday that in an interview, Case revealed that he recently apologized to Inouye (though not specifically for running against Akaka). It remains to be seen what his apology will mean for his standing among the state's Democratic establishment. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the state's two representatives and Lt. Gov Brian Schatz, among others, as potential primary challengers to Case.

6) Although he has yet to officially announce his candidacy, last week Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) formed a campaign committee to raise money for the Senate race. He filed paperwork on Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission to establish Citizens for Josh Mandel. Many Republicans expect Mandel, a proven fundraiser coming off a decisive statewide win, to challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

President Obama assures the public that all parties walked away unhappy with the budget agreement, "The Tea Party caucus is unhappy with both the size of the cuts and the fact that I wasn't born in America."

SNL's Seth Meyers, on Glenn Beck transitioning off his Fox News show: "Much the same way that he gradually transitioned off his rocker."

Today's Must See Moment - Fast forward to 0:40 to find out who else is unhappy about the budget deal. Then let us know who should be most upset in our Late Night Poll.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Six years after losing a tough Democratic primary against Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii), former Rep. Ed Case (D) will try again to return to Washington. In an email to supporters and an announcement video Sunday, Case said he would run for Akaka's seat.

"I'm running for the Senate because I believe we can and must do better, and that our Hawai'i offers a better way forward for our country," Case said in his email.

Case hinted at a run in late March, releasing the results of a poll he commissioned and saying he would make a decision by mid-April.

After losing to Akaka in the 2006 primary, Case ran in the 2010 special election to take Gov. Neil Abercrombie's (D) old House seat. Case and now-Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) split the Democratic base, allowing Republican Charles Djou to win with a plurality of the vote. Hanabusa later won the seat back for Democrats.

Case isn't likely to be the only well-known Democrat to enter the Senate race. Other possible candidates include the state's two members of Congress, Hanabusa and Rep. Mazie Hirono; former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann; Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz; and state Senate Vice President Donna Mercado Kim.

Anyone who runs against Case in the Democratic primary is likely to run to his left; he compiled a largely centrist record while in Congress, creating some enemies among the state's liberal Democratic base. Meanwhile, Case has publicly bucked the Democratic establishment -- and Sen. Daniel Inouye -- in both his last races, by challenging Akaka and running against Hanabusa. Case has sought to heal that rift; the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported today that in an interview, Case revealed that he apologized to Inouye last month, though it is not clear that Case was apologizing specifically for challenging Akaka.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Averting a government shutdown at the very last minute was welcome news for both Democrats and Republicans: recent Pew, ABC News/Washington Post, and NBC News/Wall Street Journal surveys suggested that blame for a shutdown would have been pretty evenly split between the parties.

-- The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has picked up some momentum, landing top recruits in key Senate contests (former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine in Virginia and Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) in New Mexico). The CW was that both would likely run. The big test for the DSCC where some uncertainty remains is Nevada, where Democrats have a close eye on Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.).

-- The redistricting process will still be favorable to House Republicans, but it's not going to involve them gaining many additional seats. Instead, they are fully focused on holding onto the districts they won in 2010.

-- Also limiting the Republican windfall: Growing Hispanic populations that will force Republican leaders to draw Democratic-favored seats in states like California and Texas. And uncertain maps in the vote-rich states of California and Florida, thanks to voter initiatives limiting partisan involvement, could be costly to Republican incumbents as well.

-- The energy and momentum in Wisconsin has shifted away from Republicans, who celebrated huge electoral gains in the Badger State last November. Regardless of who ultimately wins the state's Supreme Court seat, the left's comeback was on full display when the previously non-competitive, uninteresting judicial contest turned into a nationally significant dead heat.

The Federal Election Commission ruled Thursday that political party committees can tap a reserve pot of money set aside for election recount fights in order to pay legal expenses, putting another scratch in the veneer of campaign finance regulations.

The FEC ruled after Democratic and Republican party committees asked the commission for permission to use the special fund to fight a lawsuit brought by a Texas attorney seeking money donated by an accused Ponzi schemer. The parties can even use that money to raise more money to pay for the litigation.

Between 2000 and 2009, Texas financier Allen Stanford contributed almost $2 million to both parties. Lawyers trying to recoup that money for his victims have sued the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Congressional and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committees and the Republican and Democratic Senate campaign committees to force refunds.

Stanford, who allegedly defrauded investors out of $7 billion, awaits trial on charges of fraud, conspiracy and obstruction of justice.

As of September, a number of campaign committees and candidates had returned about $110,000. But others are keeping the cash; the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which received $950,000 from Stanford, and the NRCC, which received $238,500, both stand to lose the most cash.

House Speaker John Boehner and President Obama may be pleased with the final product of a week of budget negotiations, but watch out: Some House Republicans don't think the deal cuts enough spending.

That's the case with Rep. Dennis Ross, a freshman Republican from Florida. Ross will not support the deal, according to his chief of staff.

"He firmly believes that $39 billion is not enough, especially considering, as we understand it, that $39 billion is not all new savings, but takes into account previous cuts," Fred Piccolo, Ross's top aide, told us.

"The promises of votes and studies are encouraging, but in the end, it is about how much we will borrow against our children's future," Piccolo added. "[Ross] cannot support the 'deal.'"

How many other freshman Republicans will join Ross? We've gotten a few hints there are more to come.

Stay tuned to NationalJournal.com for a complete roundup of the deal reached late last night and the fall-out to come.

Update: Ross's office passes along a statement: "While I am encouraged that the debate has shifted from where to spend to where to cut, the deal secured Friday is not something I can support. Our original pledge of $100 billion in cuts, or 6% of the $1.65 trillion deficit, was not too much to ask of House and Senate Democrats, or the President. In fact, members of the House took a 5% budget reduction this year and found efficiencies and ways to save. There is no reason every federal agency and department could not do the same. The Speaker recognizes we have a debt crisis looming and achieved commendable spending reductions. In addition, It is clear from the past weeks that Senator Reid and President Obama still do not recognize the crisis facing our country, nor are they willing to lead."

"Citizens all across our great country have been forced to endure painful household budget cuts. The agreement secured Friday cuts the federal budget by 1%. Farmers, Homemakers, Doctors, Teachers, and citizens throughout our communities deserve better from their government than 1%. Our children and grandchildren deserve better than debt to China and diminished futures. From the debt ceiling to the Path to Prosperity, our Republican caucus will have many opportunities to show the American people we heard them loud and clear in November. There are many struggles ahead and I will continue to stand with any of my colleagues who stand with the taxpayer, Democrat or Republican," Ross said.

House Speaker John Boehner outlined the parameters of a long-term funding deal, telling his members in a closed-door meeting, "This is the best deal we could get out of them," according to a lawmaker in the room who asked not to be identified.

The deal is still not official, Boehner cautioned, but in a sign things are coming to a close, the House is preparing for a 5-6 day short-term continuing resolution with $3 billion in cuts, he told members according to the lawmaker. The meeting is still underway. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., was scheduled to address the Senate at 10:30 p.m. EDT.

This Sunday, the budget showdown will be front and center on the weekend's public affairs programs. White House senior adviser David Plouffe will make the rounds, appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press," "FOX News Sunday," CNN's "State of the Union," and ABC's "This Week."

House Budget Chair Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) will stop by "Meet the Press" to discuss the budget battle and what it means for the 2012 budget negotiations. Ryan will also talk about his recently released 2012 budget proposal.

Reps. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) will go on ABC's "This Week" while House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin appear on FOX News and CNN, respectively. Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) will appear on CNN's "State Of The Union."

Turning to the 2012 presidential elections, Donald Trump will stop by CNN's "State of the Union" to discuss a potential presidential run.

Finally, CNN talks with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair about the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. Blair currently is the Special Envoy of the Quartet on the Middle East.

CBS's "Face the Nation" will feature Sens. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) discussing the latest on the budget crisis.

Get the full listings after the jump.

If former Rep. Mark Neumann (R-Wis.) makes a Senate bid, he'd just as soon run against Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) than hope for his retirement.

"I'd almost rather that he does run, if I'm involved," Neumann said Friday in an interview with Hotline On Call. "Voting for the Obama health care [bill]; he's got some tough votes ahead of him here on the debt ceiling. ... I think he's got a track record that he's built in the last 12-18 months really, that is going to make it difficult for him to be reelected."

Neumann, who lost to Gov. Scott Walker in the 2010 gubernatorial primary and is mulling a Senate run, was reportedly in Washington recently to meet with Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus and several conservative organizations.

"We're receiving some encouragement to consider a run for Senate," Neumann said. "We certainly have not made a commitment or decided to do that."

Neumann said he has not established a timeline for making a decision on the race. But he did note that one factor in his decision making process will be whether Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) decides to run.

"It wouldn't be the only thing in our decision, but it would certainly have some influence, if Paul decided he was going to run for Senate," Neumann said, later adding, "before we make any decision, we want to know what he's thinking."

What's atop on Jon Huntsman's agenda when he leaves China as U.S. ambassador at the end of this month? Two speaking engagements at universities in South Carolina and New Hampshire.

The former Utah governor will be the commencement speaker at the University of South Carolina's arts, sciences and honors colleges graduation on May 7. That's just two days after the first GOP debate, which is scheduled for May 5 in Greenville, S.C.

Strategists likely involved in a potential Huntsman candidacy tell Hotline On Call they'll urge him not to participate when he returns, and no decisions can be made until that time. Both the speech and the possible debate will be a quick turnaround for Huntsman - he'll leave China on April 30.

Huntsman will also speak later that month in New Hampshire, where he'll give another commencement address at the University of Southern New Hampshire on May 21, the university announced earlier this week.

You might not recognize the mustachioed man walking alongside Kentucky Senate President David Williams (R) in the first television ad of his gubernatorial bid, but a lot of Kentucky voters probably do. Williams' running mate is Commissioner of Agriculture Richie Farmer (R). But more Kentuckians probably remember Farmer as the former University of Kentucky basketball standout whose retired jersey now hangs from the rafters at Rupp Arena.

Williams is the leading candidate to capture the GOP nomination next month and challenge Gov. Steve Beshear (D) in November. And it probably won't hurt his chances to remind voters of his campaign's connection to the Wildcat basketball program, which doubles as a religion for countless fans in the state.

Farmer played shooting guard for the Wildcats from 1988 through 1992, and along with three classmates, went down in Wildcat basketball lore as a member of "The Unforgettables." The quartet earned that nickname because they stuck by the vaunted program during one of it's darkest periods. The NCAA placed the team on probation in 1989 and banned the Wildcats from postseason play for two years.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is using the Friday midnight government shutdown deadline to continue a fundraising push that began Thursday, and they are more than halfway to their goal.

"Yesterday, Sen. Reid said 'the only thing holding up an agreement is ideology.' Republicans are so against funding women's healthcare that they would shut down the federal government over it," wrote DSCC executive director Guy Cecil in a fundraising email sent out Friday.

"We only have $42,197 left to raise to meet our goal. Can you help kick in $5 before midnight?"

The DSCC sent out a fundraising pitch Thursday that said, "We need to raise $100,000 in the next 36 hours to call out the GOP extremists and preserve our Senate majority."

"Republicans -- catering to each and every demand of the Tea Party -- are intent on shutting down the federal government," the Thursday email also said.

Will the Wisconsin Supreme Court race have all the trappings of the 2008 Minnesota Senate recount, or perhaps the historic 2000 recount in Florida?

It's too early to say. But if a recount is in the cards, it will feature some familiar faces.

The Madison Capital Times reports that Democratic-backed candidate JoAnne Kloppenburg's campaign is working with Marc Elias, a prominent election attorney who was part of now-Sen. Al Franken's (D-Minn.) successful 2008 recount team.

Meanwhile, Republican-backed Justice David Prosser has hired Ben Ginsberg, who was part of former Sen. Norm Coleman's (R-Minn.) 2008 team and also worked for George W. Bush during the 2000 recount in Florida.

As we reported Thursday, the votes Prosser picked up in Waukesha County could propel him to a lead that puts a no-cost recount out of reach for Kloppenburg,though it's not yet clear what the final, official margin will be. If Kloppenburg does not qualify for an automatic recount, she can still request one, but would be charged on a per-ward basis.

Former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) criticized former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine for not standing up to the Obama administration on oil and gas exploration off the Virginia coastline, in one of his first attacks against the Democrat since he entered the Senate race.

At a campaign stop in Burke on Tuesday, Allen highlighted a bill introduced by Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) that he supports which calls for additional drilling off of the Virginia coast.

"It'd be nice if we had a U.S. Senator from Virginia fighting for that on the Senate side as well," said Allen. "So, the Obama administration's been against it. Tim Kaine's position has hardly been an advocate of it."

Kaine, during the last year of his governorship in Virgina, requested to the Interior Department that drilling off of Virginia's coastline be delayed. Allen also criticized him for backing the administration's moratorium on drilling after the BP oil spill in his role as DNC chairman.

"There was no protest. He didn't say, 'This is wrong.' He was looking out for the views of Washington liberals as opposed to the views of the people of Virginia," said Allen.

A Kaine spokesperson responded in an email by noting, "As Governor, Tim Kaine signed into law the current Virginia policy which supports exploratory drilling for natural gas 50 miles off the coast. Governor Kaine also believes that Virginia is well-positioned to lead the nation in domestic energy production due to (its) abundance of natural resources."

Jon Stewart wants to know why Glenn Beck is leaving Fox News.

Jimmy Kimmel has Donald Trump's first presidential campaign ad, "He's the hood ornament on you're car of creation."

Today's Must See Moment - Fast Forward to 0:30 when Stewart heads to the chalkboard. Then let us know why you think Beck is leaving Fox News in our Late Night Poll.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama met with Congressional leaders late into the night Thursday, but a budget deal still hasn't been reached, with the threat of a government shutdown now hours away. Obama has postponed a previously scheduled Indiana trip to stay and continue to work toward an agreement. Meanwhile, there is big news in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race and former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D) has a new roommate. Here's today's rundown:

8) Kilpatrick was transferred back into state custody this week. His new roommate? A 28-year-old serving time for second-degree murder.

7) Republican Jane Corwin netted an influential tea party endorsement in New York's 26th District special election. TEA New York, the largest tea party organization in Western New York, announced Thursday night they were backing the Republican nominee, and not Jack Davis, the Democrat-turned-Republican-turned independent who petitioned onto the ballot to run on his own-created "Tea Party Line."

The special election will be held May 24.

6) The effort to shrink Louisiana's seven congressional districts into six has become tense: Rep. John Fleming (R-La.) on Thursday accused Rep. Charles Boustany (R-La.) of actively backing a redistricting plan that could hand Fleming's seat to a Democrat in order to make Boustany's already safe district even more "perfect."

5) Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's (R) exploratory campaign is planning a big fundraiser on May 18, in Minneapolis. A person with knowledge of the event said the gathering is one of several scheduled around the country.

The county clerk of a GOP-heavy county in Wisconsin revealed Thursday that a spreadsheet error caused thousands of votes in a high-stakes Supreme Court race to go uncounted in the initial tally, upending the race and giving the GOP-backed candidate a big boost.

The new tally from the county will net Justice David Prosser, the Republican-backed candidate, over 7,500 votes, putting him ahead of labor and Democratic-backed challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg.

"I discovered the data that was sent to me from the city of Brookfield was not transferred to the final report that was given to the media on Tuesday night," said Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus in a news conference late Thursday afternoon.

"The spreadsheet from Brookfield was imported into a database that was provided by the GAB, but it was inadvertently not saved. As a result, when I ran the report to show the aggregate numbers that were collected from all the municipalities, I assumed that the city of Brookfield was included, and it was not.

"This is human error, which I apologize for."

WTMJ anchor John Mercure is reporting that election officials in the Republican stronghold of Waukesha County -- a Milwaukee suburb -- didn't count 14,000 ballots cast on Election Day. Those ballots will net Republican-backed judge David Prosser 7,381 votes, according to reporting from National Review.

National Review's Christian Schneider adds that county officials neglected to report data from the city of Brookfield, which accounted for those missing votes. If that margin holds, it could push Prosser's lead over union-backed candidate JoAnne Kloppenburg beyond the point where there would be an automatic recount.

Waukesha County voted overwhelmingly for Prosser on Election Night, giving him 73.5 percent of the original tally. It backed Gov. Scott Walker in last year's gubernatorial race with 72 percent of the vote.

A county elections official told Hotline On Call they will be holding a press conference at 6:30 EST to discuss the findings.

UPDATE, 6:13 p.m: The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is now reporting that Prosser picked up a net of 7,582 votes.

The latest Pew Research Center national poll released today underscores how slender a beachhead President Obama has established among whites more than two years into his presidency.

In his 2008 election, Obama ran well only among two groups of whites -- young people and white women with at least a four year college education, two groups that are generally receptive to government activism. In the 2010 GOP landslide, those groups stuck with Democrats relatively more loyally than the rest of the white electorate, but the party's support tumbled even among them.

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
WHO'S ESSENTIAL, WHO'S NOT?

LIVE BLOG: Just Hours Left to Negotiate

Who Gets Furloughed? Agency-by-Agency List

Social Media Braces for Shutdown

PICTURES: The Budget Debate's Cast of Characters

ANALYSTS: Relax. Effect on GDP is Negligible

Figures provided to National Journal by Pew from the new survey suggests that Obama has recaptured ground Democrats lost with well-educated white women in 2010-but that he is still struggling with every other segment of the white electorate, including younger voters.

These results underscore the basic dynamic looming over the 2012 presidential race. On the one hand, Obama will benefit from a wave of diversity that has increased the minority share of the population in every state since 2000, according to recently released results from the 2010 Census.

On the other, polls consistently suggest he may struggle to match the modest 43 percent support among whites that he drew in 2008, according to the Edison Research exit poll. In the 2010 mid-term election, according to the Edison exit poll, just 37 percent of whites backed Democrats in House races, while 60 percent supported Republicans-the highest share of the white vote Republicans have won in a House election in the history of modern polling. Obama's approval rating among all whites in the Pew survey stands at a similar 38 percent.

As a Senate candidate, former Sen. George Allen (R) will be faced with a lot of questions over the next few months. Donors will want to know how his campaign is doing, pundits will question his strategy and the media will ask him to weigh in on the events of the day.

But Thursday, it was a question Allen asked that made its way into the headlines.

The Washington Post highlighted a recent exchange on Twitter between an African-American television news anchor and Allen. It began when the anchor, Craig Melvin, of Washington's NBC 4 Tweeted Tuesday, "For the 2nd time in 5 months, fmr. gov. and sen candidate George Allen asks me,"what position did you play?" I did not a play a sport."

Allen later apologized, Tweeting: "Sorry if I offended, ask people a lot if they played sports Grew up in fball family found sports banter good way to connect."

After all, Allen is a former high school football player. And his father was former Redskins head coach George Allen. Maybe he was just looking to field a competitive flag football team this spring?

Whatever the case, the story was picked up quickly by many outlets, given Allen's history. Allen still is living down his use of the word "macaca," which dogged him in his unsuccessful 2006 re-election bid.

"A fresh set of ideas were brought to the table today. Some are good, and some will need to be improved, but they're out there in the open for anyone to see and debate. This budget is a starting point, not a final product."

"Paul Ryan putting forth a plan, good place to start. There's some problems with it. And I will tell you that honestly, not as a Democrat or Republican, but as a farmer from Montana. But if we get everybody in a room, the same way they did with the debt commission, I think we could come up with a plan."

While the quotes sound very similar, they're coming from two bitter rivals in the hotly-contested Montana Senate race. The first quote is from Rep. Denny Rehberg's (R) Tuesday statement and the second is from Sen. Jon Tester's (D) Wednesday appearance on MSNBC's "Morning Joe."

National Democrats have been closely monitoring how Republican candidates respond to the Ryan budget proposal. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee issued a statement noting Rehberg, among other GOP Senate candidates, is considering the Ryan plan. And they have quickly gone after candidates who have acknowledged supporting Ryan's proposal.

But some of the candidates, especially those representing Republican-leaning states, may prefer to let the DSCC do the dirty work for them. If Tester's response is any indication, you're less likely to see knee-jerk opposition to the Ryan plan from such candidates -- which isn't all that different from many of the Republican reactions.

If Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) is looking for someone to boost his credibility on immigration and border security, he may want to turn to a man who gave Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) a hand during his 2010 reelection campaign.

"To see Congressman Flake, who is my congressman, how he can transform -- [and] he already did a pivot," said Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu on Wednesday, when asked what he thought of Flake's recent move to the right on immigration.

Babeu, a border hawk, added that Flake has sought his advice and counsel on immigration and has been "very good about speaking about this."

Babeu appeared in McCain's 2010 "Complete The Danged Fence" television ad and was one of his most visible allies, boosting the credibility of the senator who once championed comprehensive reform.

Political operatives in both parties believe that Democrats stand to gain the most from a compromise on the continuing budget resolution, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Solid majorities of both Democratic and Republican operatives agree that regime change should be a U.S. goal in Libya, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. We have an unofficial tally in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, but don't bet on seeing a final resolution any time soon -- the race is likely headed to a recount. Meanwhile, with time running out before a looming government shutdown, President Obama met late into the night with Congressional leaders, but a budget deal has not yet been reached. Here's today's rundown:

8) Democratic Governors Association Chairman Martin O'Malley and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) have one of the liveliest rivalries in politics. The rivalry continued Wednesday, as O'Malley delivered the keynote speech at the New Jersey Democratic Committee's annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner. "He's made himself a foil for effective governing," zinged O'Malley.

7) Former Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.) will not run for her old seat. Bean lost in 2010 by a very slim margin to now-Rep. Joe Walsh (R). Meanwhile, Bean said incoming Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz "was not happy to hear" that there won't be a rematch.

6) Former Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner (R) isn't yet an official Senate candidate, but his team is already going after former Sen. George LeMieux (R-Fla.), who this week announced he is in the Senate race. "If we couldn't trust George LeMieux to stand up to Charlie Crist and stand up for Marco Rubio when it mattered, how can we trust LeMieux to stand up to politics as usual in Washington, D.C.?" his team asks in a fundraising email to supporters. Expect more of that line from all of LeMieux's opponents as the race progresses. Hasner is expected to announce a decision soon and has already formed an exploratory committee.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee stops by "The Daily Show" to discuss his new book and the conservative base.

Jimmy Kimmel, on the budget debate: "Democrats are demanding the government tax everyone all their money and use it to fund free abortions for teenagers. Where as Republicans want to sell the government to Exxon Mobile and forcibly relocate gays to Puerto Rico."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:40 to see President Obama's Top Ten 2012 Campaign Promises. Then let us know which promise is most likely to happen in our Late Night Poll!

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

President Obama faces a challenge in winning the battleground state of Florida again, according to a new Quinnipiac poll that shows majorities of voters disapprove of his job performance.

The poll shows Obama with a 44 percent job approval rating in the Sunshine State, with 52 percent disapproving. A generic Republican presidential challenger leads Obama by three points, 41 to 38 percent, in a head-to-head matchup. And a 51 percent majority said Obama doesn't deserve a second term.

Obama's standing among independents is at 39 percent, with 55 percent disapproving. There's also a gender gap, with women (49 percent approval) giving him significantly higher marks than men (38 percent approval).

Florida is a pivotal state for Obama's re-election. He carried it in 2008 with 51 percent of the vote, but Democrats struggled there in the 2010 midterms, losing the governorship and the Senate race. On Tuesday, Obama tapped Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) to chair the Democratic National Committee - in part, a nod to the importance of the state in 2012.

The dissatisfaction does not extend to the state's two senators, one of whom (Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson) is up for re-election. Both Nelson and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) sport 47 percent approval ratings, nearly double their disapproval numbers. But Nelson only leads an unnamed Republican 43 to 39 percent.

Top Republican Senate candidates are in a difficult position when it comes to House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's budget proposal. The plan, which Ryan unveiled on Tuesday, proposes to cut over $6 trillion in spending over the next decade, and includes significant changes to Medicare, including converting the program into a voucher-based system for people younger than 55.

The plan will force Republican Senate candidates to decide how to strike a balance between appearing tough on spending without alienating seniors -- a vital voting bloc for the GOP -- by embracing bold changes to the program.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already pounced. "Just a few months ago only the most radical Republican wanted to end Medicare. Now it is the official position of the Republican party," said DSCC spokesperson Matt Canter.

So far, the responses from Republican Senate candidates range from enthusiastic endorsements to careful, measured statements praising portions of Ryan's proposal but leaving the door open for changes to some of the specifics in the plan. Here's a look at the leading candidates (and potential candidates) who have weighed in:

-- Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) said he plans to vote for it and to campaign on it -- and he's gone as far as almost any Senate candidate in support of the proposal. "Most Nevadans can understand this is the direction the country needs to go," Heller said, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. "I don't see where we are setting ourselves up or that we are outside the lines or the bounds of where the American people want us to be."

Raking in a big endorsement is usually worth some bragging rights for a candidate. But what if you and your main challenger score the same endorsement?

In an unusual move Wednesday, the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce PAC endorsed two Republican candidates in the gubernatorial primary: former Secretary of State Betty Ireland and businessman Bill Maloney.

"Several of the candidates in the Republican primary are very well qualified to be our next Governor," said Chamber President Steve Roberts in a release. "We have endorsed Bill Maloney and Betty Ireland because both are leaders in the business community and understand the struggles of starting and growing a business in West Virginia like very few people. We believe if selected as the Republican nominee, Bill Maloney or Betty Ireland will be able to wage an effective and aggressive campaign this fall."

Roberts said that the organization had endorsed two candidates in the same party previously, in state Senate races.

Ireland has more political experience than Maloney, but finance reports filed with the state on Friday showed he outraised her.

The Chamber PAC also endorsed acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) in the Democratic primary.

"Our endorsement of Governor Tomblin is a result of his proven record of advocating for the issues that are most important to the citizens of West Virginia," Roberts said in a release. "We have 30 years of experience working with Governor Tomblin. He has been a steady voice for lower taxes, improved government services, better education and a friend of job creation and economic development."

After Tuesday's Las Vegas mayoral primary, Las Vegas Review-Journal columnist John L. Smith reflected on outgoing Mayor Oscar Goodman's three-term reign and his "larger-than-life persona."

Smith: "Any guy who finds a way to get paid for spending part of his work day checking his sports bets and drinking oversize gin martinis in the company of two stunning showgirls dressed in full feather is someone special."

While the final outcome of Tuesday's Wisconsin Supreme Court race likely won't be known until after a recount, one result is already in: Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) and his allies suffered a political loss.

Before the drawn-out controversy over Walker's collective bargaining reforms, Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice David Prosser seemed poised to cruise to reelection. Prosser won 55 percent of the vote in the February 15 primary, while Assistant Attorney General JoAnne Kloppenburg finished with just 25 percent.

Less than two months later, Prosser finds himself trailing Kloppenburg by a few hundred votes, albeit with a few thousand absentee ballots left to count.

Walker's effort to pare back collective bargaining rights aroused voter discontent over recent months in a state that saw Republicans capture statewide electoral victories in both the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races last November.

Emboldened by the demonstrations and public outcry against Walker, labor unions and liberal interest groups poured money into the Kloppenburg's campaign and mobilized the state's left-leaning voters. Wisconsinites headed to the polls Tuesday at a previously unheard of clip for an off-year April election: an overall voter turnout rate of around 33 percent.

If Kloppenburg's narrow margin holds up through the potential recount, it will be just the fifth time a Wisconsin Supreme Court justice has been unseated since the court's establishment in 1852.

Prosser could still survive a recount and preserve the high court's previous balance. But any electoral momentum Wisconsin Republicans held after last fall's results seems to have evaporated.

Rep. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) will report that he has doubled the first quarter fundraising haul of his Democratic opponent in the Connecticut Senate race, former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz's (D). Murphy announced Wednesday that that his campaign will report raising $1.1 million in the first quarter 0f 2011. Bysiewicz announced last week she will report raising over $500,000 during the first three months of the year.

Bysiewicz indirectly acknowledged that Murphy would likely outraise her when she announced her total.

"The truth is, I may be outraised in this race," Bysiewicz wrote. "I'm sure the corporate PACs and DC lobbyists are lining up to support other candidates. After all, I don't have cozy relationships with DC insiders."

Bysiewicz's campaign also cast Murphy as a Washington insider when he racked up endorsements from other members of Connecticut's congressional delegation.

But Murphy said his sum was raised from 1,600 contributors, 1,100 of which gave $100 or less; that 94 percent of the contributions came from individual donors; and that 85 percent of contributions came from Connecticut residents.

Murphy and Bysiewicz remain the only major candidates for retiring-Sen. Joseph Lieberman's (I) seat. On the Republican side, former WWE CEO Linda McMahon, the 2010 Senate nominee, is considering another run.

The Western Republican Leadership Conference has selected CNN to host a GOP presidential primary debate in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 18, the network announced Wednesday.

The debate will coincide with the WRLC's four-day conference in Las Vegas the week of October 17.

CNN is co-hosting two other debates in 2011. One will be on June 7 in Manchester, New Hampshire and the other will be on September 12 in Tampa, Florida.

A slow start to the primary campaign has already pushed an NBC News/Politico debate that was originally scheduled for early May back to September, so a series of four debates are now slated to take place over the six-week period from August 11 - September 22.

A May 5 debate in Greenville, South Carolina being sponsored Fox News and the South Carolina Republican Party is still scheduled to take place, despite the slow start to the campaign.

In the Wisconsin Supreme Court race that is still too close to call, Assistant Attorney General JoAnne Kloppenburg, the favorite of liberal activists and unions, has taken the lead over Justice David Prosser, the Republican-favored candidate.

With all but three precincts in the state counted, Kloppenburg leads by a mere 224 votes, 739,574 to 739,350.

Early Wednesday morning, Prosser still held a lead, but it was whittled down to a few hundred votes. The populous Milwaukee County, which has gone 57 percent to 43 percent in favor of Kloppenburg, still has two precincts that need to be counted. The county is divided on partisan lines, with the northern half more friendly to Democrats and the south hospitable to Republicans.

But settle in: There are still thousands of absentee ballots left to count. That means this race is going to drag out for a while to come.

Updated at 11:49 a.m.

-- Kevin Brennan contributed to this post --

A poll released Wednesday by the gubernatorial campaign of acting-Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) shows him leading Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) by 14 points. The poll follows a survey conducted several weeks earlier by the Tennant campaign indicating a closer race.

In the Global Strategy Group (D) poll conducted for Tomblin, the acting governor leads Tennant 36 percent to 22 percent.

The Tennant poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D), shows Tomblin leading Tennant 31 percent to 27 percent.

Tomblin has been viewed as the frontrunner, thanks to his standing as the current governor. Fundraising reports also show he has raised the most money in the Democratic field, and has the most money in the bank.

Neither candidate has gone up on television, while both Treasurer John Perdue (D) and state House Speaker Rick Thompson (D), who are behind Tomblin and Tennant in both polls, have already gone up on the air.

If you've been following politics in Missouri lately, you've probably found the Show-Me State has looked a lot more like the "Show-Me-The-Scandal-State."

Most recently, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R), a likely gubernatorial candidate, was forced to explain spending over $35,000 of taxpayer money to pay for hotel stays in St. Louis, giving him a far more expensive tab compared to other statewide elected officials.

Sen. Claire McCaskill's (D) good-government reputation took a hit in March after she revealed her failure to pay property taxes on a private plane. The aircraft was already causing her problems following a prior revelation that taxpayer money was used to finance her political travel.

Former Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R), a Republican Senate candidate, was blasted by Democrats last week over missing records from her tenure as treasurer.

Gov. Jay Nixon (D) hasn't been exempt from scrutiny, either. The Missouri Republican Party launched a radio ad earlier this year hitting Nixon for flying on trips paid for by taxpayers an average of once every three days.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. On Tuesday, President Obama and Republicans emerged from a meeting without an agreement as the threat of a government shutdown looms. Meanwhile, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race is too close to call, with under 600 votes separating the two candidates. Here's today's rundown:

9) Former Sen. George LeMieux (R-Fla.) launched his Senate bid Tuesday, and in an afternoon session on Facebook in which LeMieux took questions, the former senator faced audio problems and had to send out a Tweet correcting the time of the event. And as of 2:30 p.m., only 53 people were watching. Needless to say, a shaky debut.

8) Carolyn Goodman, wife of term-limited Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, finished first in the mayoral primary Tuesday, but fell short of the 50 percent threshold (she got 37 percent of the vote) needed to avoid a runoff and will now face Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani to determine the winner.

7) Philanthropist Chris Abele defeated state Rep. Jeff Stone (R) Tuesday in the race for Milwaukee county executive -- Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's (R) old job. Abele ran an ad during the race painting Stone as Walker's ideological doppelganger, wagering that opposition to Walker's measure to curtail collective bargaining rights for public workers would allow him to pick off some votes. Stone voted for Walker's budget repair bill in the legislature.

6) The New Hampshire Union-Leader reports Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman will make a Granite State appearance on May 21 as the commencement speaker at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester.

The visit is slated to come just three weeks after Huntsman is set to leave his post as U.S. Ambassador to China. Huntsman's "campaign-in-waiting," Horizon PAC, has already been staffing up in New Hampshire, where Huntsman is expected to compete, if he decides to run for president.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty thinks the Republican party and Charlie Sheen have one thing in common,"...winning!"

Jon Stewart doesn't think Democrats are going to get what they want by calling the Tea Party, "extreme."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast Forward to 1:10 to see how George W. Bush is spending his retirement. Then let us know what else Sheen and the GOP have in common in our Late Night Poll!

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

The high-stakes Wisconsin Supreme Court race remained very tight early Wednesday morning, without a declared winner.

At the time of this post, state Supreme Court Justice David Prosser led Assistant Attorney General JoAnne Kloppenburg by just under 2,000 votes: 727,440 - 725,534, with 98 percent of precincts reporting, according to the Associated Press.

Liberal activists have lined up behind Kloppenburg's candidacy, while a Prosser win would be a boost for conservatives. Check out my colleague Kevin Brennan's look at what is at stake in the race.

Check back with Hotline On Call later this morning for updated results.

President Obama has selected Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) as his choice to be the next chair of the Democratic National Committee, the committee announced Tuesday.

"I am so honored and humbled to be President Obama's choice to serve as the next DNC chair, and I look forward to seeking approval by my colleagues on the Democratic National Committee to serve in this important role," said Wasserman Schultz, in a statement.

Wasserman Schultz is set to succeed Tim Kaine, who announced earlier Tuesday that he will run for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.). Politico first reported that Wasserman Schultz would head up the national party.

Wasserman Schultz will retain her seat in the House. She has been an active fundraising and recruiting force for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and was on the short list to become DCCC chair, a position for which Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi eventually tapped Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.).

She will be the first female head of the DNC since Debra DeLee headed the party between 1994 and 1995, and the third in the history of the committee. If the full committee membership elects her, Wasserman Schultz will be the first woman elected as chair by Party members.

"In selecting Debbie to lead our party, President Obama noted her tenacity, her strength, her fighting spirit, and her ability to overcome adversity," said Vice President Biden in an email to DNC members informing them of Obama's choice.

Updated 9:39 p.m.

Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine is getting the gang back together. As he leaves his post atop the national party, many of the advisors who guided Kaine to the Virginia governorship in 2005 will work to elect him to the Senate next year.

Struble Eichenbaum Communications, Kaine's old media firm, helped produce his two-minute announcement video. Bullseye Interactive, a Struble affiliate founded by Kaine's 2005 internet director, John Rohrbach, also helped produce the video.

Longtime Kaine advisor Mo Elleithee, who served as his communications director during the 2005 campaign, is back on board. He'll be joined by Brandi Hoffine, a DNC spokeswoman who sources say is headed to Kaine's shop.

Kaine decided to run during the last two weeks and called Elleithee, a partner at Hilltop Public Solutions, to let him know. Elleithee is helping out during the announcement period and will transition into a different role as the team comes together, he told The Hotline.

"He was excited about running," Elleithee said. "(Kaine) decided that bringing the kind of leadership that he brought to governor's office was something he was excited to try to bring to Washington."

The rest of Kaine's old team has yet to climb aboard, but he has deep relationships with some of the best-known Democratic strategists in the business. His manager was Mike Henry, who later served as a deputy campaign manager to Hillary Clinton and who managed Mark Warner's 2008 Senate campaign. And Pete Brodnitz, the well-respected numbers guru at Benenson Strategy Group, served as Kaine's top pollster.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine will enter the Virginia Senate race, he announced in a two-minute video on Tuesday. His decision provides Democrats with an elite contender in a competitive race for an open seat the party currently holds.

"I'm running for the United States Senate because America has big challenges, and I'm convinced Virginia has answers to help strengthen our nation," Kaine says in the video.

Kaine also touted his work as governor of Virginia in his announcement.

"We cut billions of dollars from the state budget, tightened our belt and made government more efficient," he says.

Check out the full video after the jump.