Lack of Brown Challenger Leaves Dems on Shaky Ground
In today's National Journal Daily (subscriber), we take a closer look at an argument some Democrats are making about the Massachusetts Senate race:
Their reasoning goes like this: Democrats have a better chance of beating Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) the longer they go without a top Democratic challenger getting attention, so that labor groups and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee can define Brown without their candidate getting attacked.
When told about the argument that it was preferable to wait, Massachusetts Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh said it was important to continue to define Brown and point out problems with his Senate record, but, "You can't beat somebody with nobody. And what we saw in the special election is a crowded, bloody, and expensive primary [and that] isn't going to help anybody beat Scott Brown in a six-week race between September and November."
Working to define Brown is a valid strategy that may pay dividends for Democrats. But there are also reasons why not having a top candidate yet should worry the party.
For one, as of the end of last year, Brown was sitting on a campaign war chest of $7.2 million. The longer it takes for a consensus Democratic candidate to appear, the harder it will be to catch up with the Republican.
Also, the delay could prompt more candidates to enter the race, making a divisive primary more likely. "It's starting to seem that way, isn't it?" said Marsh, citing the news this week that Gerry Kavanaugh, former chief of staff to the late Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy, might be interested in the seat.
Because of the September primary, the Democratic nominee could emerge battered and broke, with little time to regroup before November. Still, Democratic strategist Scott Ferson maintains that so long as a credible Democrat emerges, general election money should not be a problem.
"If this becomes one of two states where Democrats can pick up a seat--Nevada and Massachusetts--I would advise not to worry about the general election money," he said.
But there is no establishment candidate who amounts to a get. Kennedy's widow, Vicki Kennedy, and Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick have passed.
Massachusetts remains one of the best pickup opportunities for Democrats in 2012--illustrating how few Republican-held seats are in play this cycle. Faced with a limited map, Democrats will continue to focus heavily on the Bay State, and they'll continue to work to define Brown. But getting the right candidate to face Brown in the general election is equally important. In time, that candidate might surface. But it's not clear who that person is just yet.
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