May 2011

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who will officially announce his presidential campaign in New Hampshire on Thursday, is slated to travel to Missouri next week for a fundraiser in St. Louis.

The event, which will feature dinner and a reception, will be held on Thursday, June 9, at the Ritz-Carlton in St Louis, according to an invite to the gathering. Former Sen. Jim Talent, R-Mo., and former Ambassador to Belgium Sam Fox will be among the dinner co-chairs in attendance.

Romney placed third in the 2008 Missouri Republican presidential primary, finishing behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who won the Show-Me State contest.

A Romney spokesperson did not immediately respond to an inquiry about what other events Romney would be doing in Missouri.

Out with the old, in with the new: Gallup poll data released Tuesday show one longtime Republican leader fading while an upstart climbs to new heights.

Newt Gingrich's numbers have tumbled among Republicans, according to the poll data, after the former House speaker was excoriated for criticizing new House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., budget as "radical social engineering." The comment, made only days after he officially declared his presidential campaign, forced Gingrich to backtrack furiously and apologize to Ryan personally.

Republican voters aren't forgiving: Gallup says his "positive intensity score," which measures voters who strongly approve of him against those who strongly disapprove, is only six percent. That's less than half his rating only two weeks ago. Thirteen percent of Republican strongly approve of Gingrich, compared to seven percent who strongly disapprove.

Only former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, a relatively unknown GOP figure with a libertarian bent, has a worse score among the party faithful. Gingrich trails former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas in the poll.

During the past three years, winnable races in GOP-friendly districts in N.Y. have slipped out of Republicans' grasp, each one fueling next-day hand-wringing that mismanagement and failure to notice candidate flaws snowballed into a golden opportunity for Democrats.

Last week's Democratic victory in New York's 26th District continued the party's special election winning streak in the state. And overseeing the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during the contest was the party's point man on the two previous Empire State special elections, Long Island Congressman Steve Israel.

Israel served as DCCC recruitment chair during two bright spots for Democrats that preceded a bleak midterm election cycle for the party -- a March 2009 special election in New York's 20th District after Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed to the Senate, and a November 2009 special election in New York's 23rd District after GOP Rep. John McHugh was appointed Secretary of the Army.

Both were swing districts, and in the 20th especially, Republicans saw a shot to flip a competitive seat, without the popular Gillibrand not running. The GOP nominated Assemblyman James Tedisco, while Democrats chose venture capitalist Scott Murphy. Tedisco was criticized for not taking a position on the stimulus (he finally said he opposed it), and Murphy ended up winning by a slim 726 votes.

Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth has closed the door on the possibility of a run for office in Hawaii, ending speculation that she would launch a bid for the seat currently held by retiring Sen. Daniel Akaka, D-Hawaii -- but leaving the door open on a future run in Illinois.

"As honored as I am by all those who'd like me to run here -- and I get asked that question all the time -- my home and my National Guard unit are in Illinois. And if I run for office again, it'll be there," said Duckworth, according to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Duckworth has previously run for Congress in Illinois' 6th District in 2006, losing in the general election.

Duckworth, the Assistant Secretary for Public and Intergovernmental Affairs with the Department of Veterans Affairs, attended high school and college in Hawaii, and Sen. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, had mentioned her as a potential Senate candidate just prior to Akaka's announcement that he wouldn't seek re-election. In March, a "Draft Tammy Duckworth" site popped up.

Rep. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii and former Rep. Ed Case are already in the race for the Democratic nomination. The Democratic field is still expected to grow, with Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, and Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz all still considering bids. On the Republican side, former Gov. Linda Lingle has said she'll announce her decision on a run by the end of August.

Duckworth had also been floated as a potential candidate for Hirono's House seat.

Former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine isn't the head of the Democratic National Committee any more, but he's still defending President Obama -- something 2009 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds often avoided.

Deeds lost the 2009 race to now-Gov. Bob McDonnell 59 percent-41 percent, and distanced himself from the president's then-proposed health care reform measure during the campaign. He also refused to call himself an "Obama Democrat," even though Obama campaigned for him. He came up well short for several reasons, including a superior opponent and lack of Democratic enthusiasm for his campaign. Shortly after Deeds lost to McDonnell, Kaine said in a post-election assessment that Deeds focused on winning independents assuming Democrats were already locked down.

While Republicans this cycle will relentlessly work to tie Kaine to the president, a recent Washington Post poll indicated voters were nearly split when responding to the question of whether Obama would be a factor in their Senate race vote. Virginia is once again likely to be a presidential battleground, and with the likely prospect of very few crossover votes between Obama and former Sen. George Allen (if Allen wins the GOP nod), the electoral fates of Kaine and Obama in Virginia could be very similar.

Kaine has recently defended Obama on Israel, energy and federal spending. His campaign spokesperson, Brandi Hoffine told the Washington Examiner that given a choice between Rep. Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., budget proposal and Obama's plan, he would support the president's plan. The Senate recently rejected both plans; Obama's was voted down 97-0. Hoffine also told the paper that Kaine is "extremely interested in seeing what the bipartisan coalition lead by Senator [Mark] Warner puts forward."

CORRECTION: The original version of this report gave an incorrect name for Daniel Bongino's campaign chairman.

Daniel Bongino, a former U.S. Secret Service agent whose recent assignments included a posting to President Obama's protective detail, has decided to run for the Senate in Maryland as a Republican.

At an agency that stresses the silence and political neutrality of its agents, Bongino's announcement is raising eyebrows. It's not unusual for federal law enforcement agents to run for office after they retire, but the Secret Service, which has fought to give presidential protective division agents legal standing to keep agents from testifying about high-level conversations they overhear lest they lose the trust of the commander in chief, frowns upon former agents who make sudden turns to politics.

Bongino is seeking the Republican nomination to take on freshman Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md. Bongino's Twitter account calls him a "Conservative Republican Candidate for the U.S. Senate" and directs visitors to a campaign website that is off-line.

His campaign chair will be Brian Murphy, who unsuccessfully sought Maryland's Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2010 despite being endorsed by the Tea Party and Sarah Palin.

Read the complete story on NationalJournal.com.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is taking another step toward making her presidential bid official, signing a prominent Republican pollster to conduct surveys for her campaign, sources tell The Hotline.

Bachmann will work with Ed Goeas, president of The Tarrance Group, several sources said. Goeas had been a top advisor to Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who pulled the plug on his own presidential bid last month.

Goeas said he couldn't comment on any deals, and that a "final discussion" had not occurred. "But," he said, "look for it."

Signing on a pollster is the latest sign Bachmann is a serious presidential contender. She has quietly reached out to potential staffers in key early states as well as top consultants and strategists in Washington.

Bachmann has kept up a busy travel schedule, taping "Iowa Press" and appearing at two events in New Hampshire over the holiday weekend. The Iowa native told reporters last week she will announce her intentions in her hometown, Waterloo, in June, with all signs pointing to a declaration next Monday.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. As Sarah Palin's bus tour continues, keeping reporters guessing about her next moves and destinations, two groups launch their own efforts to woo other prominent Republicans into the presidential race. Plus, former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman won't be at a June presidential debate, and President Obama nominates a new chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Here's today's rundown:

9) It was only a matter of time before speculation about a hypothetical Jim Tressel political run surfaced somewhere. The former Ohio State Football coach resigned Monday from his job amid NCAA rules violations.

8) Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., became the latest member of Congress to run into Twitter trouble after a lewd photo was sent from his account Friday night, the Washington Post reports. Weiner said that his account had been hacked and jokingly brushed off the incident. But his office has retained legal counsel to explore his next steps.

7) Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, appearing on ABC's This Week over the weekend, said that he didn't think it was necessary to raise the nation's debt ceiling, and declined to endorse House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., budget plan straight out. Pawlenty said he had his own plan, but if the only choice was between "doing nothing" and Ryan's plan he would still vote for the latter.

The House is expected today to reject a proposal that would increase the nation's ability to borrow money without also making major cuts in federal spending, the Washington Post reports.

6) Former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman won't participate in a June 13 debate in New Hampshire. A Huntsman strategist said he won't compete in debates until the former Utah governor officially announces his intentions.

Further evidence that this is the summer of Republicans' discontent: Just as one group of well-heeled Iowans jets east today in hopes of persuading New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to reconsider the 2012 GOP presidential race, another group of monied types is launching DraftRyanNow.com, an online petition -- and, they hope, national movement -- to coax House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., into the contest.

The group is headed by Denison Smith, a northern Virginia-based communications investor, and Charles Kozak, a Nevada lawyer and GOP political activist who briefly sought his state's GOP Senate nomination last year before throwing his support to Sharron Angle. The group, which includes members from the early-voting states of Iowa and Florida, and has "top-flight" online communications skills to get the movement launched, Smith told National Journal.

Never mind that Ryan has protested on countless occasions his unwillingness to leave his powerful House post. Smith says the group hopes to produce a groundswell that will convince him it is his patriotic duty, much the same way Republicans in the 1950s persuaded a reluctant retired Gen. Dwight Eisenhower to run for the presidency.

Members of the Draft Ryan group believe that government overspending is the most important issue facing the country and that most Republican presidential hopefuls are compromised on it, Smith contends: "Ryan is the only one of the whole group -- other than Herman Cain -- to speak to it."

So why not back Cain? "We might," concedes Smith. But priority one is getting Ryan into the race, he says, adding: "They'd make a wonderful combination."

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- There's a major divide between House Republicans' political instincts, and their Senate counterparts when it comes to Rep. Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., budget proposal. While nearly every vulnerable House Republican is standing squarely behind Ryan's entitlement reform, the Senate Republicans and GOP Senate candidates are much more evenly divided. Of the six GOP Senate candidates in tough races who voted on the plan, only half were behind it (Heller/Akin/Lugar) - and Lugar is facing a tough primary, and needs to cater to his conservative base. That 50 percent support is strikingly low, and is even more notable with many of the GOP Senate candidates keeping some distance from the proposal.

-- President Obama's birthday wish: "A much lower unemployment rate. And lower gas prices," he told AARP Magazine. It's the second part that's so crucial to his own re-election hopes. Gas prices are the most obvious economic indicator that Americans see on a daily basis, and they've more than doubled since Obama took office. No wonder, amid an economic recovery, the country's mood is still so pessimistic.

-- Just when Kentucky Republicans find a ding in Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear's reputation for clean ethics, yet another scandal engulfs GOP gubernatorial nominee and state Senate President David Williams's running mate Richie Farmer. After the Lexington Herald-Leader reported Wednesday that Beshear suggested political supporters should win contracts from a state-run retirement agency, Farmer's financial woes came back to haunt him again, this time for claiming he didn't use a state SUV for personal driving even though he did. Coupled with another addition to Farmer's ongoing divorce drama, the agriculture commissioner's past has once again taken attention away from Beshear and onto the problems of the GOP ticket.

-- Outside interest groups spent $2.2 million dollars on NY-26. Republicans outspent the Democrats $1.3 million to $900,000, but the GOP groups split their expenditures between attacking Democrat Kathy Hochul and independent Jack Davis. American Crossroads, a group run by former RNC chair Mike Duncan and former-Bush adviser Karl Rove launched $700,000 alone against Davis and Hochul.

-- Republicans would be wise to learn some lessons from their NY-26 loss, but it's hardly an upset of Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., proportions. Hochul won 47 percent in a seat where Obama got 46 percent, and press descriptions of NY-26 as an "overwhelming Republican district" were a bit misleading.

-- But the onus is on Republicans to come up with a new messaging plan for their Medicare plan after their loss in NY-26. Ryan released a new video the morning after explaining his plan, but the average voter isn't going to want to listen to such intricacies and want a simplistic, quick explanation. Ryan's now become synonymous with his plan, and he's the DCCC's new top target -- remember, he's in a swing district that voted for Obama, and in the immediate aftermath they were touting his challenger Rob Zerban.

As Americans celebrate Memorial Day weekend and remember soldiers of current and past wars, the Sunday shows will have a lot to discuss about 2012 candidates announcing, the debt ceiling, the economy, and the NY-26 special election.

This week Rep. Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., budget died in the Senate. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will be on "Meet the Press" to talk about the repercussions of the failure to pass another budget and if there can be a compromise on the debt ceiling. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., will follow to discuss the fallout from the special election in New York where Ryan's budget plan took center stage. "Face the Nation" will host House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz to discuss 2012, jobs, and the politics of Medicare.

On "Fox News Sunday," Reps. Allen West, R-Fla., and Donna Edwards , D-Md., will debate fiscal issues, foreign affairs and America's future. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., will sit down with host Chris Wallace to reflect on the role of the United States in its current wars. "State of the Union" host Candy Crowley will talk to the U.S. Army's Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Peter Chiarelli, American Legion's Legislative Director Tim Tetz, Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America founder Paul Rieckhoff, Sen. Patty Murray , D-Wash., and Purple Heart Homes' founder Dale Beatty to discuss the veterans returning from wars on this Memorial weekend.

"This Week" host Christiane Amanpour will address 2012 with former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels. Amanpour will travel to Indianapolis to learn more about Daniels' decision not to run for president.

During the past week, a severe tornado hit Joplin, Missouri, and Wolf Blitzer will reflect on the tragic events. Following Blitzer, CNN will air 'CNN Presents: A Twister's Fury- In the Path of Destruction' and correspondents Drew Griffin and David Mattingly will bring the latest on the survivors and destruction in the heartland.

New to our listings this week is Univision's Spanish-language public affairs program "Al Punto" (To The Point). "Al Punto" is hosted by veteran journalist and co-anchor of Univision's evening news program "Noticiero Univision," Jorge Ramos. "Al Punto," like its English-language counterparts on broadcast networks, features interviews with prominent opinion makers and politicans along with a roundtable of analysis. The program will feature discussion of issues important to Hispanics living in the United States.

On "Al Punto" this Sunday, Ecuador President Rafael Correa's brother Fabricio Correa will explain why he thinks his brother is misusing his office by trying to control all powers in the country. Ramos will then discuss the Obama administration's stance on free trade in South America and South Korea with Under Secretary of Commerce of International Trade Francisco Sanchez. Also on the program is Texas state Rep. Ana Hernandez Luna, who recently revealed that her family was undocumented when they immigrated to the United States.

Get the full listings after the jump.

Texas state Sen. Dan Patrick (R) announced Friday on Laura Ingraham's radio show that he is forming an exploratory committee to run for the seat being vacated by retiring-Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchsion (R-TX), potentially joining an already crowded Republican field. Patrick, a Houston-based conservative talk show host, brings another Tea Party-friendly voice to the race.

"If I decide to enter the race I will be the only candidate with a proven conservative voting record and a long history of fighting for conservative causes," Patrick said in a statement to Hotline On Call.

Updated at 1:11 p.m with a comment from Perry's spokesperson.

In the strongest indication yet that he may be eying a White House bid, Texas Gov. Rick Perry said Friday that he would consider running for president in 2012 after the state's legislative session wraps, the Austin American-Statesman reported. But Perry's spokesperson told Hotline On Call that nothing has changed and Perry has no intention of running for president.

"Nothing has changed. The Governor thinks about a lot of issues. The Governor has no intention of running for President," Perry spokesperson Mark Miner said.

(PICTURES: Meet the 2012 GOP presidential hopefuls)

"I'm going to think about it" after the legislative session ends Monday, Perry said, according to the paper.

"But I think about a lot of things," he added.

Perry's name has been floated in the past, but each time, he has shot down speculation that he is mulling a bid. But there has been renewed interest from Republicans dissatisfied with the current crop of candidates, especially after Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels announced that he would not run for president last week.

As the governor of one of the nation's most populous states -- and one that is home to many major-league political donors, Perry has certain built-in advantages. He's also head of the Republican Governor's Association this year, a position that allows him to travel the country, winning the gratitude of GOP state executives and potential state executives.

Nationally, Perry would have to overcome inevitable associations with former President George W. Bush, who had just a 34 percent approval rating in the Gallup Poll when he left office. The two men were never close, but Perry shares a state and a pugnacious speaking style with the former president, whom he succeeded as Texas governor.

The progressive website Daily Kos and their erstwhile pollster Research 2000 have reached a settlement in the lawsuit filed by Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas that accused Research 2000 of fabricating polls it conducted for the site.

According to the Huffington Post, which first reported the settlement, Research 2000 president Del Ali's attorney has only recently started making cash payments to Moulitsas in order to ensure compliance with the settlement.

Ali confirmed to Hotline On Call that the parties had settled the lawsuit, and he said in an e-mail that "neither side admits to any wrong doing [sic]." Moulitsas told Hotline On Call he would let the court document speak for itself, even when told that Ali said neither party admitted wrongdoing.

In June 2010, Moulitsas published a report by three readers he describes as "statistics wizards" that he said showed "quite convincingly" that Research 2000, based in Olney, Md., was manufacturing the results of weekly national polls.

"Based on the report of the statisticians, it's clear that we did not get what we paid for," Moulitsas wrote.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will officially announce his presidential campaign in New Hampshire next week, while speculation over a potential WH bid by Sarah Palin is stoked following word that she is embarking on a national tour. Plus, a key Democrat drops out of the race in NV-02, while former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich gets choked up. Here's today's rundown headed into the holiday weekend:

8) In testimony at his federal corruption retrial Thursday, former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich choked up at times and denied doing anything illegal.

7) Congress cleared a reauthorization of the PATRIOT Act Thursday, and the Obama administration announced that President Obama signed the bill into law.

6) Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., defended his actions related to the scandal that caused now-former Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., to resign his seat, saying he was "proud" of the way he handled the situation.

Jay Leno wants to see a Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin ticket in the White House 2012 race, "I think they compliment each other perfectly. I mean she can't answer basic questions and he has two answers for every question."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00 for Jimmy Kimmel's "This Week in Unnecessary Censorship." Then let us know if you think Romney and Palin should run together in our Late Night Poll!

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Updated: 11:17 p.m.

That was fast.

Hours after Sarah Palin announced a "national tour" that will point her towards still to-be-announced destinations in New England, several other Republican presidential hopefuls revealed plans for making their intentions known:

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., told Iowa reporters in an evening conference call that she'll be making an announcement, sometime next month, in Waterloo -- the Iowa town where she was born;

Presumed Republican 2012 front runner Mitt Romney let it be known that his long-awaited official announcement will take place on June 2 in New Hampshire;

Former Sen. Rick Santorum has also set his announcement date for June 6.

As for Palin, her own presidential intentions remain uncertain. But she certainly has had impact on her potential rivals.

While Democrats are touting the special election victory of Rep.-elect Kathy Hochul D-N.Y., as evidence that the Medicare issue can resonate even in heavily GOP districts, they're also engaging in some hyperbole on just how Republican a district the western New York seat is.

Democratic National Committee chairman Debbie Wasserman Schultz told MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell on Wednesday that N.Y.-26 is "the 426th worst-district for Democrats in the country. There's only nine districts out of 435 that are worse than this one."

She's presumably looking at 2010 election results, when former Rep. Chris Lee faced nominal Democratic opposition. But just two years before, Lee won election with 55 percent of the vote - and Democrats spent millions in contesting the seat.

A more useful metric to measure the partisanship of House districts is the Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index, and it shows that the district is less Republican than the average Republican-held House seat.

The Cook Partisan Voter Index rates NY-26 at R+6, meaning that during the last two presidential elections, district voters supported the Republican nominee by six more percentage points than the average district in the country. It gave President Obama 46 percent of the vote in 2008.

According to the Cook Political Report, there were 149 districts after the 2008 election that were more Republican with ratings between R+7 and R+29. Twenty-five other districts also share the R+6 value of NY-26.

Interestingly, the only House Republican to hold a seat valued at D+6 or higher is Rep. Robert Dold (R-Ill.), who is likely to face stiff competition next year after the Democratically-controlled state legislature completes the redistricting process.

While Republicans in the House have lined up squarely behind Paul Ryan's budget plan, both vulnerable sitting GOP senators and Senate candidates haven't been nearly as enthusiastic about his entitlement reform package.

Indeed, as many Republicans facing competitive Senate races voted against the Ryan plan as supported it.

Three Republicans voted no (Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe and Montana Rep. Denny Rehberg), while three voted yes (Nevada Sen. Dean Heller, Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar and Missouri Rep. Todd Akin).

It's a far cry from the tally in the House, where nearly every targeted Republican backed the Ryan plan last month; only four members voted against it -- including Rehberg. Senate Republican officials believe that their candidates' distance from the Ryan plan will inoculate them from criticism on the campaign trail.

"In Montana, Nevada, Nebraska, New Mexico and a number of other states with competitive Senate races next year, there will only be one candidate definitively on the record in voting to cut existing Medicare benefits for seniors and that will be the Democrat," said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Brian Walsh.

But it won't stop Democrats from continuing to attack their top targets. "It's still the negotiating position for their party," DSCC spokesperson Matt Canter said. "And they are supporting their party's leadership on it."

After a week in which she reignited speculation about her presidential ambitions, Sarah Palin is announcing plans for what looks like a campaign tour, beginning with an appearance on Sunday at the "Rolling Thunder" Memorial Day motorcycle rally of military veterans in Washington.

The 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, who acknowledged last week that she is "seriously considering" a run for the presidency, will continue her "One Nation" tour with as-yet-to-be-announced stops in New England. The trip will take her to "historical sites that were key to the formation, survival, and growth of the United States of America," said spokesman Tim Crawford.

An announcement on Palin's website bills the tour as "campaign to . . . promote the fundamental restoration of America," and suggests a "generous donation." The website also features photos of the bus in which Palin presumably plans to travel, custom-painted with a fascimile of the Constitution and Palin's signature.

Palin-watchers should jump to "no conclusions" about the former Alaska governor's 2012 plans, Crawford told National Journal.

Read the complete story on NationalJournal.com.

Rick Santorum will officially announce the start of his presidential campaign June 6 in Western Pennsylvania, the Hotline On Call has confirmed.

A source close to the campaign said that the former Pennsylvania senator will formally launch his campaign "on June 6 from southwestern Pennsylvania near where his grandfather worked in the coal mines after he came here from Italy."

"This location is significant because when Senator Santorum's grandfather left fascist Italy, he came to this country for America's freedom and the opportunity our nation afforded him." Santorum frequently attacks President Obama as an advocate of European-style socialism.

Santorum had left little but the timing of his announcement in doubt. He already has an exploratory presidential campaign committee and has been making frequent visits to early-voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.

Politico first reported the date and location of Santorum's announcement.

On the heels of a Democratic upset victory Tuesday in a special election in New York's 26th District, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel told reporters Thursday morning for the first time that he believes control of the House is in play for Democrats this cycle.

"Today, I can tell you that I fundamentally believe the House of Representatives is in play and that the Democrats can win a majority in 2012," Israel said.

Israel based his assessment on combination of factors, including Democrat Kathy Hochul's victory in NY-26, recruiting, fundraising and mobilization.

"I am not saying that we will win. Yet," Israel continued.

Hochul upset Republican Jane Corwin in NY-26 in a contest that became something of a referendum on Rep. Paul Ryan's budget blueprint that revamps Medicare. Democrats and their allies went on offense during the race, hitting Corwin with ads that cited her proclaimed support for the proposal, charging that it would negatively impact seniors.

"The victory in NY-26 will inform our strategy, it will not be our strategy," said Israel.

Newly minted DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz denied Thursday morning that President Obama's support for using the 1967 borders as a starting point for negotiations between Israel and Palestinians has hurt him with Jewish voters.

"I think the suggestion that the president did significant damage to his support in the Jewish community is a gross overstatement," the Florida congresswoman told reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast.

Jewish voters have historically overwhelmingly supported Democrats -- they voted 78 percent for Obama in 2008 -- but the president's speech last week on Israel has some criticizing the White House's support for Israel. Republicans, meanwhile, have pounced on the opportunity to paint the president as not supportive enough of Israel. Even several Democratic lawmakers, such as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., have said the president's position on the borders was wrong.

Wasserman Schultz, who reiterated several times that opponents were "outright lying" about Obama's position on Israel, said she wasn't concerned Jewish voters will abandon the president in 2012.

"At end of day, the natural home for the Jewish community in America is the Democratic Party," said Wasserman Schultz, who is Jewish. "It's why the Democrats consistently get overwhelming support from the Jewish voters up and down the ticket."

Republican and Democratic Members of Congress have very different expectations for how much of a revenue increase will be contained in any agreement to raise the debt ceiling, according to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll. The vast majority of GOP Members don't foresee any revenue hikes, while Democrats are divided.

Under pressure to cut the deficit, a huge majority of Republican Members of Congress and a fair share of Democrats are prepared to ask federal employees to increase their contributions to their own pensions, according to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. GOP senators Olympia Snowe and Scott Brown vote against Paul Ryan's budget but Dean Heller doubles down in support. Lawyers for John Edwards are in last-minute discussions for a plea deal, and Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., is keeping his distance from the president. Here's today's rundown:

7) Attorneys for former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., are making last-ditch efforts to reach a plea agreement over alleged campaign-finance violations, the Wall Street Journal reports.

6) Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., said she was "shocked" by ads from the League of Women Voters that attacked her environmental record. "My mom was the president of the League of Women Voters in Lebanon, Missouri, when I was a little girl. To me, they have always been about civic engagement and debates," McCaskill told the New York Times. The group attacked McCaskill over voting to limit the regulatory power of the Environmental Protection Agency.

5) Speculation about former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's presidential intentions was reignited on word that she's purchased a home in Arizona and has cooperated with a documentary about her career that will debut next month in Iowa. What does it mean for Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., who appears to be prepping a WH bid of her own? National Journal's Lindsey Boerma explores.

Jay Leno thinks President Obama is enjoying his time in London, "Like today he told the Queen, 'You know, I like your tea parties much better than the ones we have in America.'"

Jimmy Fallon, on a new Sarah Palin documentary entitled 'The Undefeated': "That's like a documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger called 'The Faithful.'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:17, Conan O'Brien says goodbye to Oprah and her fans.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Democrats' fortunes have improved significantly in the last month in the key battleground state of Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll that shows that more voters now believe President Obama and Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., deserve to be re-elected.

Obama's approval rating has risen to 51 percent, up from 44 percent in early April. His approval rating among independents is up eight points. Just 43 percent of Sunshine State voters disapprove of Obama, down nine points from early April.

Half of voters say that Obama deserves to be re-elected, while 44 percent believe he does not. In early April, a 51 percent majority believed Obama did not deserve to be re-elected.

Obama leads a generic Republican, 44 percent to 37 percent; in April, he trailed, 41 percent to 38 percent.

"Whether these numbers represent a 'bin Laden bounce,' President Barack Obama's popularity is up in Florida, which will be a crucial state for him in the 2012 campaign," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll.

Updated at 6:31 p.m.

It's on in New Mexico.

A day after New Mexico Republican Gov. Susana Martinez declared her neutrality in the New Mexico GOP Senate race and put some extra distance between herself and Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, who made his Senate bid official the same day, former Rep. Heather Wilson is going the extra yard to play up her own ties to the governor.

On Wednesday, Wilson's campaign posted two photos on her campaign's Facebook page, featuring the governor and Wilson seated together.

"The Governor was a surprise guest at my speech at the Economic Forum this morning. Great to sit with her! These photos are a little blury [sic], but things in politics move quickly! :)" Wilson writes in the caption to one of the photos.

"Susana makes me look bad by eating healthy while I scarf down the tortillas and eggs. . . :)" Wilson notes under another photo.

When asked about the nature of the governor's appearance at the event, her spokesperson, Scott Darnell said that when Martinez is in Albuquerque, she tries to attend the Economic Forum and was not there specifically for Wilson's speech.

Martinez made clear Tuesday that she isn't endorsing either candidate right now, but she took the unusual step of further distancing herself from Sanchez, saying in a statement, "to prevent this race from becoming a distraction, Lt. Governor Sanchez will not be given responsibilities in my administration beyond the select few provided for in the state Constitution."

In a surprise decision, Republican Sharron Angle announced she will not participate in the upcoming special election in Nevada's 2nd District.

"Current outcomes concerning the special election have made this election in Nevada an illegitimate process that disenfranchises the electorate," Angle said in a statement. "Clearly, no solution that the Supreme Court can make will correct the injury to free and open elections caused by ambiguous laws and subsequent lawsuits."

The 2010 Senate nominee had been mum on her intentions since a District Court judge ruled against a "ballot royale" option, giving her virtually no chance of winning the GOP nomination under a system in which party nominees are by party insiders. Nevada's Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller has appealed the decision to the state Supreme Court.

"I do not have any desire to participate in a process described by others as a 'ballot royale' or a situation where the party central committees choose their nominees because it makes a mockery of the most important constitutional element in exercising freedom," Angle continued. "Voter participation has been preempted in either case by disallowing primary elections, or in allowing a select group of people to make a decision who otherwise would not be allowed to vote in Nevada's 2nd Congressional District. The longer this drags out the more it will become a contest of bank accounts and negative campaigning based on personal attacks instead of the important issues that face Nevada and our country."

Angle didn't say whether she would still be a candidate in the regularly scheduled general election next fall, but did say she is "not ruling out a future run for office" and "will be making additional announcements soon detailing my plans."

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has endorsed Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning for Senate, the Republican's campaign announced Wednesday.

"I'm proud to endorse my good friend Attorney General Jon Bruning," said Huckabee in a statement. "I know he has the conservative record and proven leadership that Nebraskans need in the United States Senate."

For Bruning, it's a timely endorsement.

The state attorney general hasn't had an easy ride with some conservatives lately. The Tea Party Express endorsed him earlier this month, making him the first candidate the group has officially gotten behind this cycle. But the endorsement angered many Tea Party activists in the state who felt they were not consulted.

Newt Gingrich was among the first prominent Republicans to publicly warn about the political risk posed by Rep. Paul Ryan's budget when most in the party were still unified behind it.

Now, just as Republicans might be poised to back away from the proposal offered by their House budget chairman, following the loss of a solidly GOP congressional district where the "Ryan plan" became a pivotal issue, the former House speaker is urging lawmakers to stand behind the Wisconsin Republican.

Gingrich sent a letter to congressional Republicans on Wednesday asking them to push ahead with their plan to change Medicare, saying that Democratic criticism of their agenda is "simply untrue."

"We need to stand firm against these attacks," he wrote in a letter provided by the campaign to National Journal. "We need to be bold and offer real solutions that improve Medicare so we can preserve it for future generations."

Republicans are quickly learning that not every one of their members is Paul Ryan. And that's becoming a problem as the party's rank-and-file tries to defend his far-reaching entitlement reform package to constituents back home.

And as many effective television appearances, PowerPoint presentations or online infomercials Ryan can offer to articulate his plan, the vast majority of voters simply aren't paying attention.

That's what happened to Republican Jane Corwin on Tuesday in New York's 26th District special election: she was ill-equipped to defend the controversial proposal.

"I probably would have addressed the Medicare message -- coming out at my opponents -- quicker," Corwin said on Monday, in a stroke of self-reproach.

But it wasn't just the timing of Corwin's response. It was the fact that she came out early on in support of Ryan's plan, but didn't even attempt to sell the voters on the details of the proposal. She later backed away from some of the specifics, and tried to turn the table on Democrat Kathy Hochul, accusing her of being the one trying to cut Medicare. That's not a way of inspiring confidence or winning support.

Contrary to some accounts of his town hall meetings, Ryan actually received a predominantly positive reception at his town halls back home -- in a district that's less Republican than the one Democrats picked up in New York. But while Ryan's natural policy chops allow him to be an effective messenger, a nuanced and convincing message may not come as easily for other Republicans.

Privately, Republican officials fretted that some members - not well-versed in fiscal policy - returned home to their town halls without a persuasive case for altering an entitlement that seniors have come to depend on.

With Democrat Kathy Hochul's upset victory last night in a solidly Republican western New York district, Democrats are now loudly proclaiming the salience of the Medicare issue on the results.

We've been covering this race for months now - and anticipated a close race back in April when few considered it competitive -- and here's our rundown of the top lessons to be learned from the results:

Republicans can't blame Jack Davis. In the runup to the race, Republicans were confident that once Tea Party candidate Jack Davis' support dissipated, Republican Jane Corwin would rack up the lion's share of his supporters. (That was the logic behind third-party groups initially attacking Davis, and not Hochul.) That turned out not to be the case, as a healthy share of Davis backers in the race's final stretch ended up siding with Hochul instead.

Final polls - and both party's internal numbers -- in the race showed that former Davis backers weren't migrating en masse to Corwin.

That shouldn't have been surprising, and was borne out of a misreading of the New York district's electorate. From the beginning, polls showed large majorities opposing changes to Medicare, an important social program for voters of all parties in this economically-struggling district. It was especially alarming for seniors, who make up a significant 15 percent share (and probably a greater share of last night's electorate).

Fact of the matter is: the Medicare attacks played a role in diminishing Corwin's support not just with Democrats, but with enough independents and Republicans as well. Even though he ran on a Tea Party line, Davis' support wasn't predominantly from ideologically-driven fiscal conservatives aligned with the Tea Party but from conservative-minded seniors worried about the future of a program they've long depended on.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Democrat Kathy Hochul decisively wins the NY-26 special election as Democrats credit Medicare for tipping the race. In New Mexico, GOP Gov. Susana Martinez is keeping her distance from her lieutenant governor while Sen. Olympia Snowe keeps her distance from the Ryan budget plan. And is Rick Scott the most unpopular governor in the country? Here's today's rundown:

8) President Obama will visit Puerto Rico on June 14, the first official visit by a sitting president since John F. Kennedy in 1961.

7) Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) looks like one of the most unpopular governors in the country. According to a newly-released Quinnipiac poll, the first-term governor holds a meager 29 percent job approval rating, with 57 percent disapproving. Even 37 percent of Republicans disapprove of his performance.

David Letterman has the Top Ten things going through President Obama's mind after a limousine in his motorcade got stuck on a speed bump when leaving the American embassy in Dublin.

Jimmy Fallon on, former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, Herman Cain, running for president, "If his campaign isn't over in 30 minutes or less you get your pizza for free."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:00, Jay Leno gets a hold of an animated reenactment of the alleged Dominique Strauss-Kahn incident.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Democrat Kathy Hochul has upset Republican Jane Corwin in a special election to fill the seat of former Rep. Chris Lee, R-N.Y., in a race that became something of a referendum on the GOP budget plan that revamps Medicare.

The AP called the race for Hochul. With 91 percent of precincts reporting, Hochul has 48 percent of the vote to Corwin's 42 percent. Independent candidate Jack Davis is winning nine percent, running on a third party line.

"Tonight's victory is an achievement many called impossible," Hochul said in her victory speech. "Tonight we showed that many voters are willing to ignore a party label and vote for the person and for the message they believe in."

The race to replace Lee, who resigned in February after a gossip site reported the married congressman had replied to a Craigslist personal ad, wasn't supposed to be competitive. Republicans hold a significant registration edge in the district. But the race tightened after Hochul attacked Corwin for supporting Republican-backed entitlement reforms and made it the centerpiece of her campaign. Corwin herself admitted on Monday that she should have responded sooner.

Democrats immediately touted Hochul's win as evidence of the unpopularity of Rep. Paul Ryan's budget. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel took to MSNBC to list their reasons for the victory - "Medicare, Medicare, Medicare."

After months of hand-wringing, finger-pointing and attack ads, Election Day is here in New York's 26th District. The election skyrocketed to national prominence as Democrat Kathy Hochul began pressing Republican Jane Corwin over Rep. Paul Ryan's budget that would revamp Medicare, but there's also the presence of third-party candidate Jack Davis, a former Democratic nominee for the seat now running as a tea party candidate, complicating the race.

Polls opened this morning in the Buffalo/Rochester area at 6 a.m. and close at 9 p.m. We'll keep you posted throughout the day and when results begin coming in right here at Hotline On Call.

10 p.m. AP has called the race for Hochul. With nearly 75 percent now reporting, Hochul leads 48 percent to 42 percent for Corwin. Davis took only 8 percent.

9:45 p.m.: With 57 percent of precincts reporting, Hochul leads with 47 percent, Corwin trails with 43 percent and Davis has tallied eight percent. The Cook Political Report's House race analyst David Wasserman tweets: "I've seen enough, Hochul looks like she's pulled this off."

9:38 p.m. There are 58 of 90 precincts in Monroe County that have reported -- Corwin only has a 46-43 percent lead there. She needs bigger margins in this GOP area, where John McCain won 52 percent of the vote in 2008.

9:35 p.m.: Half of Erie County now in, and Hochul has a 14 point lead, 54-40. She needs big margins here, and so far is getting them.

Indiana Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson, a Democrat, will not run for governor -- and that's good news for Democratic candidate and former state House Speaker John Gregg, who now has the field to himself, with no competitive primary challengers currently looming on the horizon.

"After discussing it with my family and friends and taking a few days to give it some quiet and serious thought, I have decided that I will not be a candidate for Governor at this time," Simpson said in a statement Tuesday afternoon.

In February, Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, an up-and-coming politician many state Democrats like, passed on a run. Former Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth said in February he won't be running for any office this cycle. Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., who at one point was also considering a gubernatorial bid, recently launched a Senate campaign.

But even if Gregg cruises through the primary, he'll have a tall task in front of him in the general election. Rep. Mike Pence is the clear front-runner in the GOP race, and if he advances to the general election, he'll be tough to beat in a state where Republicans have enjoyed recent success statewide.

The battle for the Republican Senate nomination in New Mexico is between two formidable contenders, Lt. Gov. John Sanchez and former Rep. Heather Wilson. But the state's most prominent Republican, first-term Gov. Susana Martinez, isn't taking sides. In fact, she's actively working to put space between herself and Sanchez.

"I wish all of the candidates for the U.S. Senate well and do not intend to make an endorsement in the Republican primary at this time," Martinez said in a statement Tuesday, following the official announcement of Sanchez's campaign.

"To prevent this race from becoming a distraction, Lt. Gov. Sanchez will not be given responsibilities in my administration beyond the select few provided for in the state Constitution," said Martinez.

Martinez has a reason to stay neutral. Not only does Sanchez serve in her administration, but Wilson chaired Martinez's transition team. Many in state political circles suspect the relationship between Martinez and Sanchez isn't that great.

"It's known that that relationship is not warm," New Mexico politics blogger Joe Monahan said of Sanchez and Martinez. "She has given the state's number two no responsibilities," Monahan wrote on his blog. Monahan also said the relationship between Martinez and Wilson "would not heat up a room."

Martinez's "at this time" notably leaves the door open for a future endorsement.

"An endorsement would help Heather Wilson much more than it would John Sanchez," said Monahan. "Wilson is weak outside of the Albuquerque metropolitan area and the race is really a problem for her south of Albuquerque."

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is in Florida today, and he's raising money on friendly ground.

He'll be in Jacksonville -- the only major metropolitan area in state that he stole from Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in the 2008 GOP primary. McCain defeated Romney 36 percent to 31 percent in 2008.

"We look at this area as Romney country," said John Rood, a real estate developer and the former ambassador to the Bahamas under President George W. Bush.

Romney, expected to be the clear fundraising leader when the presidential candidates post their totals in July, will be back in Florida June 15-17 for fundraisers in South Florida, Orlando, Tampa and Sarasota.

Rick Santorum will make a major announcement in early June about his decision whether to seek the GOP nomination for president, a senior adviser for his campaign confirms to National Journal.

The former senator from Pennsylvania, who has formed an exploratory committee for president, is expected to say he will become an official candidate for president, launching his longshot bid for the GOP nomination. The adviser also confirms Santorum has accepted an invitation he will attend a GOP presidential debate in New Hampshire on June 13.

CNN first reported the news Tuesday morning.

News that the former Keystone State lawmaker is close to announcing his decision makes him just the latest candidate to declare their intentions in recent weeks. Many of them, like Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, decided against a campaign. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty declared his presidential campaign Monday, two days after businessman Herman Cain made his run official during a rally in Atlanta.

Despite retaining strong appeal among social conservatives, Santorum's campaign will face an uphill climb. His political career suffered a severe setback in 2006 when, despite rising to the No. 3 position in Senate Republican leadership, he lost by nearly 20 points in his home state to Bob Casey.

New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez officially kicked off his Senate campaign on Tuesday morning, releasing a 60-second television ad in which he underscores his business credentials and biography, while also indirectly going after his main GOP primary opponent.

"We don't want to return people back to Washington D.C. who got us into this mess in the first place," Sanchez declares in the ad. "It's time for a new voice."

While he doesn't name her, that sounds like a reference to former Rep. Heather Wilson, who joined the GOP race earlier this year. Even before he launched his campaign, Sanchez began going after Wilson, saying in an interview earlier this year, "I don't believe that she is a conservative Republican." Sanchez will likely try to quickly get to the right of Wilson, viewed as a more moderate Republican.

Jimmy Fallon, on President Obama spending the night at Buckingham Palace: "That's when you know the U.S. is short on cash, when even Obama is like, 'Is it cool if I crash at your place.'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:25 when Newt Gingrich tries to explain a large bill from Tiffany & Co.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Voters head to the polls today in the NY-26 special election that has received much national attention. Keep an eye on Erie and Monroe Counties when the results begin to come in. New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez will launch his Senate campaign today, giving former Rep. Heather Wilson something to think about. Meanwhile, in Iowa, Gov. Terry Branstad has some words of warning for Mitt Romney while Tim Pawlenty pitches himself as a truth-telling candidate. Here's today's rundown:

9) Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., said at a dinner with journalists Monday he thought former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was leaning toward making another White House bid.

8) Gov. Terry Branstad, R-Iowa, warned that Mitt Romney should not ignore Iowa.

7) Gov. Steve Beshear, D-Ky., went up with his first general election television ad Monday.

6) Add House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., to the list of people who would like to see House Budget Chair Paul Ryan, R-Wis., run for president. When pressed Monday on whether he'd like to see Ryan run, Cantor said, "sure."

This wasn't supposed to happen.

Just six months ago, Republicans had won control of the House and picked up 63 seats - with six of those (more than any other state) coming from New York. But then on February 9, Western New York Rep. Chris Lee (R) swiftly resigned after a gossip site posted shirtless photos the married lawmaker had sent in response to a Craigslist personal ad.

Now, more than three months later, the race to replace him has become a close contest between Assemblywoman Jane Corwin (R) and Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul (D) that's forced outside groups and the national parties to spend millions. The race has closed thanks to a third-party candidate running on a Tea Party line, and relentless Democratic attacks on Corwin for supporting an entitlement reform

The latest non-partisan public poll, a Siena survey released Saturday, showed Hochul taking a 4-point lead over Corwin, 42 percent to 38 percent, with Davis's support being cut in half to 12 percent since the last survey.

Your Election Day Scorecard. Keep a close eye on Erie County, the most populous and Democratic portion of the district. Both Davis, when he ran as a Democrat in 2006, and 2008 Democratic nominee Alice Kryzan carried Erie County despite losing the election. Hochul, as the county clerk, needs to rack up comfortable margins in her home base.

Meanwhile, Corwin needs to win comfortably in the Rochester suburbs of Monroe County, the Republican base of the district. If Hochul is running close with Corwin there, it's tough to see how the Republican wins. Corwin also needs to run up the score in the rural parts of the district - the "glow region" of Genesee, Livingston, Orleans, and Wyoming Counties.

New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) will announce his Senate campaign on Tuesday, a Republican source familiar with his decision has confirmed to Hotline On Call.

Sanchez filed statement of candidacy papers with the Federal Election Commission to run for the Senate, the Senate Public Records office confirms. The papers arrived on the 19th and was reported first in a tweet by Bloomberg's Greg Giroux.

Sanchez, a first-term lieutenant governor who is serving under Republican Gov. Susana Martinez, has been mulling a run for months. In an interview with Hotline On Call in late March, he pulled no punches in going after former Rep. Heather Wilson, the most prominent Republican currently in the race, saying "I don't believe that she is a conservative Republican."

Sanchez's candidacy sets up a marquee primary battle. He will run to the right of the moderate Wilson, his advisers say, in hopes of rallying the conservative base. Two lesser known candidates, Greg Sowards and Bill English are also in the running in the Republican race.

Republicans struggled to attract Hispanic voters in some battleground states in 2010 but in New Mexico, they performed well at the statewide level. Martinez was elected the nation's first female Hispanic governor last November. As Sanchez noted, the state's top three elected officials are Hispanic Republicans.

Herman Cain might be out playing golf today if not for President Obama, who he says is ruining America.

The former Godfather's Pizza CEO and conservative radio show host made millions in the private sector and in recent years had focused on his Atlanta-based radio show, spending time with his family and his golf game. He decided to come out of semi-retirement to run for president.

Cain said he thought he was done with running for political office after losing a 2004 Senate primary to now-Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., but when he "saw what President Obama was doing to this country" he felt compelled to make another run.

Throughout a Monday interview with Hotline On Call, Cain bashed Obama and his policies. When asked about Obama as a man, he complimented his family life. But when asked whether the president was a patriot, Cain hesitated. After asking for a definition (a man who is working to do what he sees as right for his country), he simply said "no."

It's early, but stories about party discord in state GOP circles following the recent gubernatorial primaries in West Virginia and Kentucky are standing out.

Businessman Bill Maloney defeated former Secretary of State Betty Ireland in West Virginia's recent GOP primary. The Charleston Daily Mail reports today on a "unity breakfast" hosted this morning by state GOP chair Mike Stuart, for Maloney and other GOP gubernatorial candidates. However Ireland did not attend; a spokesman said she was out of town.

When asked by Hotline On Call specifically which candidates showed up at the event, Stuart would only say "we had multiple of our candidates show up." Stuart, who argued Republicans are unified, said there will be multiple events with different candidates.

"This isn't really one unity event as much as it is one of many unity events," he added, flagging a larger public unity event that is slated for June 18.

Still, the optics of not having the GOP runner-up at the event are not good for Maloney.

In a series of network television news interviews Monday morning, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty said he is running for president to tackle the nation's economic issues while acknowledging that he is not going to be the flashiest candidate in the field.

"I'm not running for entertainer in chief. These are serious times and they need serious people with serious solutions, so if you are looking for the loudest or a comedian in the race, vote for somebody else," Pawlenty said on NBC's Today.

"I'm running for president to get this spending and out-of-control federal government back in control and to grow this economy," Pawlenty said on CBS' The Early Show.

Hotline On Call reported last week that Pawlenty would kick off his campaign today, but he preempted his own launch late Sunday afternoon, releasing a web video in which he announced his candidacy and sought to distinguish himself from President Obama.

Pawlenty went after Obama on foreign policy during his interview on ABC's Good Morning America, saying, "this treatment of his in recent days and hours of Israel and opening up the question of Israel's security, by specifically embracing those 1967 borders I thought was another misstep."

9:06 a.m. CORRECTION: The previous version of this post incorrectly attributed a quote to Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass. The quote was from a TPM editor.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is out, while Tim Pawlenty is in. Scott Brown comes out against Paul Ryan. The debate over Medicare dominates the coverage of NY 26, with the special election tomorrow Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman subtly blasts Mitt Romney over... varmints. Here's today's rundown:

8) A presidential debate in Iowa sponsored by the Des Moines Register will be held on on Jan. 12, 2012. Judy Woodruff of PBS will host the debate.

7) North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk decided not to run for the Senate after all, instead seeking the state's at-large House seat. That leaves Rep. Rick Berg (R-N.D.) without any GOP opposition, even though the fiscally conservative Club for Growth has been critical of his candidacy. No Democrats are in the race yet.

6) Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson generated a lot of fanfare at the Wisconsin Republican party convention over the weekend, but couldn't win a straw poll of party activists. Thompson lost to former state Sen. Ted Kanavas, 73-61, Wisconsin Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen received 40 votes, while former Rep. Mark Neumann was backed by 33 attendees.

Thompson hasn't made an official announcement on the race, but his supporters were hawking "Tommy for Senate" signs and T-shirts at the convention.

Jay Leno thinks former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is launching his presidential campaign at the right time, "He's very clever. On Monday, his campaign slogan will be 'Pawlenty: He got you through the Apocalypse.'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00, SNL's Seth Meyers 'Really' can't believe former CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger had an affair with his housekeeper ... in his house.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

One day before he was set to officially kick off his presidential campaign with a round of Monday morning network television interviews and an appearance in Iowa, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty posted a video on his website in which he announced his candidacy and sought to draw a clear contrast with President Obama.

"Tomorrow, my first campaign stop will be in Iowa. And that's where I'm going to begin a campaign that tells the American people the truth. I'm Tim Pawlenty, and I'm running for president of the United States," Pawlenty says in the video.

"Our country's in big trouble. We have far too much debt, too much government spending, and too few jobs," he adds. "We need a president who understands that our problems are deep and who has the courage to face them. President Obama doesn't. I do."

Mitch Daniels' decision not to run for president frees his supporters -- who for months hoped to see the second-term Indiana governor make a national bid -- to get behind another candidate in the 2012 field. 

Not surprisingly the jockeying started hours after Daniels' wee-hours announcement, as reaction poured in from some of his would-have-been rivals for the GOP nomination. All were effusive in their praise of the Indiana governor -- and in their efforts to associate themselves with his signature theme: a call to rein in the nation's debt.

In a surprise middle-of-the-night announcement that rocks the 2012 Republican presidential field, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said Sunday morning he is not running for president.

Daniels, in a statement sent to supporters shortly before 1 a.m., said he won't make a bid for president because of opposition from his family. Hesitance from his wife, Cheri, had long been seen as the primary reason the governor wouldn't enter the race. "In the end, I was able to resolve every competing consideration but one, but that, the interests and wishes of my family, is the most important consideration of all," Daniels said in a statement obtained by National Journal. "If I have disappointed you, I will always be sorry."

(PICTURES: Meet the 2012 GOP presidential hopefuls)

Daniels' decision will intensify concerns among many Republicans that the GOP field is too weak to defeat President Obama next year, and will increase speculation that another candidate, whether it's Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., or New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, will enter the race. According to a recent Gallup poll, no candidate has yet been able to muster the support of even a third of GOP voters.

(MORE: Republican reaction)

The chief beneficiary, at least initially, is likely Mitt Romney. Daniels' exit improves the former Massachusetts governor's changes of consolidating his base of upscale, college-educated Republicans. But it also could heighten competition for that constituency, which made up about half of the 2008 Republican primary electorate. There's now an opening for former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, on an exploratory visit to New Hampshire this weekend, but his departures from conservative orthodoxy on issues such as a carbon tax and immigration means he'll have to work harder to prove his conservative credentials.

(MORE: Who benefits?)

Daniels' announcement comes somewhat out of the blue. Although Daniels had said he would make a decision by the end of the month, there had been little speculation he would unveil his intentions imminently. His quiet, low-key announcement is a marked contrast from how another major contender, Mike Huckabee, told supporters he wasn't running: The former Arkansas governor revealed his decision on his Fox News TV show, after 36 hours of wall-to-wall media speculation about what whether he would enter the campaign.

Even many of his closest political advisers were kept in the dark until the surprise midnight e-mail. Christine Matthews, the governor's pollster, was in Indianapolis this weekend discussing Daniels' presidential campaign with Eric Holcomb, chairman of the state Republican Party and perhaps the governor's closest political adviser. Although neither Holcomb nor anyone else ever said explicitly Daniels would run, Matthews told National Journal she went to bed excited at the prospect he would do so.

Herman Cain, an African American businessman who has never held elective office before, formally launched a campaign for the Republican presidential nomination Saturday.

Cain, the host of a conservative talk show and the former owner of Godfather's Pizza, has been actively exploring a bid since last year but made it official at a rally in Atlanta, his hometown.

"I'm running for president of the United States and I'm not running for second," he told a crowd of supporters who chanted back: "Her-MAN, Her-MAN, Her-MAN."

Wearing a dark suit and crisp white shirt, Cain introduced himself as "the son of a chauffeur and a domestic worker" who had achieved the American dream. Borrowing a phrase made famous by another Atlantan, civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr., he promised to set the nation "free at last" from President Obama's leadership.

Cain derided the president for his economic policies, saying his stimulus package "didn't stimulate diddily," his foreign policy, which he said "threw Israel under the bus," and his well-known reliance on a TelePrompter. "Do you want a leader or a reader?" Cain asked the crowd.

The one-time chairman of the National Restaurant Association called for lower taxes -- including elimination of the capital gains tax and a tough immigration policy that would "empower the states to deal with those who are not here legally.

"We shouldn't be suing Arizona," said Cain, referring to the federal government's fight with the state over a now-largely overturned law that would allow local law enforcement officials to demand identification papers of suspected illegal immigrants. "We should be giving them a prize."

Though he starts his campaign as a long-shot, Cain already has shown he could be a factor in the race. After the first debate of the 2012 presidential campaign season earlier this month, a a Fox News focus group declared him the winner.

Cain enjoys close ties to tea party groups, and potentially strong appeal to southerners and Evangelical conservatives. In the past year, he has visited Iowa, home of the first presidential caucuses, 14 times.

Another advantage: The Atlanta-based radio show that Cain hosted for three years before taking a campaign hiatus reached South Carolina, which hosts a crucial early primary.

Read five reasons why Cain should not be discounted as a factor in the campaign at National Journal.com.

Updated 5/23, 8:53 a.m.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Not to belabor the point, but few presidential contenders overcome a week like the one Newt Gingrich just had. Gingrich demonstrated his characteristic lack of discipline in getting himself into trouble. What's most interesting is that no one in the Republican establishment did anything to help him out. The lack of veneration for the father of the Republican Revolution demonstrates that the party entered a whole new world long ago.

-- The difference in tone between this week's Republican National Committee meeting and meetings over the last two years is notable, and positive. But a proposal to allow outside groups access to RNC data - even without losing any control over that data - has members nervous. American Crossroads and its ilk will have access to the data eventually; how hard they have to fight a distrustful party base, even behind the scenes, will be instructive.

-- Early on, Rep. Rick Berg, R-N.D., is looking like the Senate field clearer many billed him to be. Late this week, Republican Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk dropped his Senate bid to run for Berg's House seat, meaning Berg has the GOP Senate field to himself right now.

-- On Friday, former U.S. Ambassador to China and potential presidential candidate Jon Huntsman tried to carve out a space for himself in the Republican presidential field. He made it clear that would have voted for Rep. Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., budget proposal, including the Medicare provisions. Huntsman's decision comes as Gingrich suffered huge fallout from his comments last Sunday that were critical of the Ryan plan. Huntsman also said he never would have invaded Libya and argued the U.S. needs to reevaluate its position in Afghanistan. If Huntsman decides to run, he hopes to secure himself in a position in contrast to the rest of the field.

-- Huntsman made his presidential debut this weekend in New Hampshire to great fanfare, and he seems to be running away from more than just elements of his past record. In addition to backing away from his support of cap-and-trade climate legislation, he notably downplayed his faith in an ABC interview, sidestepping a question of whether he's a practicing Mormon. His decision to headquarter his campaign in Orlando rather than his home state of Utah also raised hackles back home.

The success of Huntsman's candidacy will rest with his authenticity: If he runs away from key parts of his biography, he risks becoming Romney Lite. Ironically, the one element of his past that he embraced? His service to President Obama as Ambassador to China.

-- Democrat John Gregg's entrance into the Indiana gubernatorial race could make things interesting in a race that many assume Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., will win easily. Democrats are trying to paint Pence as too conservative to win statewide, and Gregg's moderation fits in nicely with their argument. He hails from the more conservative, southern part of the state, and like Pence, is pro-life. Pence should still be considered the early front-runner, but it's too early to completely discount Gregg's chances of pulling off the upset.

Democrat Kathy Hochul has taken a four-point lead over Republican Jane Corwin ahead of Tuesday's closely-watched special congressional election in New York, according to a Siena College poll released Saturday.

Hochul leads Corwin among likely special-election voters, 42 percent to 38 percent in the Empire State's normally Republican-leaning 26th Congressional District, where GOP plans to privatize Medicare have become a central issue in a campaign that's proven an unexpected boon to the western New York district's struggling economy -- in the form of millions of dollars in campaign expenditures from the national parties and outside interest groups.

Nearly two-thirds of voters say they are absolutely certain for whom they will vote, and Hochul's supporters are slightly more likely to say they are certain to vote for her. Just seven percent of likely voters say they are likely to change their minds between now and the election.

Since Siena's last poll in late April, the national fundraising arms of both political parties as well as independent fundraising groups have begun carpetbombing the television airwaves in the western New York district. Both Hochul and Corwin have seen an uptick in support, while independent and self-proclaimed Tea Party candidate Jack Davis' numbers have plummeted.

In Siena's first survey, Davis took 23 percent of the vote, but that's been cut in half following attacks by Tea Party and Republican groups. In the latest poll, Davis registers 12 percent of the vote. Green Party candidate Ian Murphy takes 1 percent, while 7 percent are still undecided.

Hochul's increased support comes from across the board. Most notably, she's now winning independent voters, 44 percent to 36 percent, while Davis takes 16 percent. In April, Corwin led among independents 34 percent, with Hochul taking 26 percent and Davis taking 27 percent.

Both House campaign committees raised roughly $4 million in April, but the National Republican Congressional Committee had a $4 million cash on hand advantage over Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee at the end of the month, according to monthly Federal Election Commission reports filed Friday.

The NRCC ended the month with $9.6 million cash on hand, compared to the DCCC's $5.53 million in the bank. The GOP's cash on hand is more than twice what they had at this point in 2009 as they headed into the 2010 midterms.

The GOP House campaign committee narrowly took in more during April too, raising just over $54,000 more than their Democratic counterpart -- $4.06 million to $4.01 million.

But the DCCC now has less debt than the NRCC for the first time this election cycle, shrinking it to just $7.3 million after beginning the year more than $19.5 million in the red. The DCCC paid down over $666,000 in the debt last month, while the NRCC paid down $500,000

With President Obama's Middle East policy speech on Thursday and the continuing fight over the debt ceiling, this Sunday the public affairs programs will have a lot to discuss. On top of policy issues, Republican presidential candidates are starting to make news.

Fresh off his "Meet the Press" interview, former House Speaker and Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich sits down on CBS' "Face the Nation" to discuss his controversial comments about Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) budget proposal and his plans for the 2012 race. Staying on the topic of the 2012 presidential election, "FOX News" Sunday hosts Republican presidential candidate and businessman Herman Cain to talk about where he stands in comparison to other candidates.

"Meet the Press" will get House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) reaction to Gingrich's comments about his budget proposal and whether or not Republicans and Democrats will be able to come to a compromise. Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) will be on hand to discuss the President's reelection plans and the "Newt fallout."

CNN will delve into both the 2012 elections and budget crisis with former House Majority Leader Dick Armey and former Biden Chief of Staff Ron Klain.

Turning to foreign policy and Obama's Middle East speech Thursday, ABC's "This Week" hosts King Abdullah II of Jordan while CNN's "State of the Union" talks with House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and ranking member Rep. C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Md.).

Check out the full listings after the jump:

Updated 3:25 p.m.

Is the Democratic super PAC established to help President Obama win re-election run by lobbyists? According to filings the PAC made with the Federal Election Commission, it is.

Priorities USA Action, the independent expenditure-only committee established by former White House aides Bill Burton and Sean Sweeney and Democratic powerhouse Paul Begala, will support more than one federal candidate, according to initial filings made with the FEC.

But the attorney preparing the documents also checked another box, on line 5(f): "In addition, this committee is a Lobbyist/Registrant PAC."

A committee must register as a Lobbyist/Registrant PAC if a lobbyist or someone registered as a lobbyist "established or controls the committee," according to instructions the FEC includes with the initial forms.

(Update: Ben Smith points out longtime Democratic strategist Harold Ickes, a registered lobbyist, is involved in the group, which I'd forgotten)

Obama, of course, is no fan of Super PACs. He has taken special care to make known his disgust with Citizens United v. FEC, the Supreme Court decision that allowed independent groups to raise unlimited sums from individuals and corporations that could then be spent on campaign advertisements.

Ever since former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson's (R) name was floated as a likely candidate for retiring-Sen. Herb Kohl's (D) seat, he's absorbed his share of blows. But not everyone is attacking him.

While the national Club for Growth hasn't pulled any punches, slamming Thompson in a release and web video this week, the Wisconsin Club for Growth had only nice things to say about the former governor. "While WICFG does not intend to issue statements or offer opinions regarding the positions of candidates for U.S.Senate, we recognize Governor Tommy Thompson's significant contributions to improving Wisconsin's economy and reforming government," the group said in a statement.

And on Friday, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) said "I'm excited that Tommy Thompson is running for the United States Senate and I believe this gives us a great opportunity to retire Harry Reid and the liberals who control that body today. I was honored to work for Tommy when he was President Bush's HHS Secretary," in a statement circulated by Darrin Schmitz, who has worked in various capacities for Thompson. Thompson served as HHS secretary during George W. Bush's administration from 2001-2005. Jindal served as assistant HHS secretary under Thompson starting in 2001, before leaving in 2003 to run for governor.

Thompson has not made any official announcements yet regarding the Senate race.

Updated at 1:18 p.m.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will move from an "exploratory" presidential campaign to a full-fledged one next week, an aide to the former governor has confirmed.

Pawlenty will do so Monday in Iowa, the state that will cast the first ballots in the 2012 election. He's scheduled a town hall meeting in Des Moines where he will be introduced by his wife, Mary Pawlenty.

The decision comes as no surprise, but raises the prospect of two candidates from Minnesota battling for the crucial votes in neighboring Iowa. Also considering a presidential bid: Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.).

Pawlenty also announced on Friday the official addition of four Iowa operatives to his exploratory team. Ed Failor, an influential force in Hawkeye State politics and the former president of Iowans For Tax Relief and Eric Woolson, who led former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's (R) successful 2008 Iowa operation are officially joining the Pawlenty team. Former Ambassador to Latvia Chuck Larson Jr. and former Republican National Committee aide Karen Slifka are also joining the effort.

Pawlenty's announcement is another indication the once-sleepy GOP primary is waking up. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich declared his candidacy last week, and businessman Herman Cain is expected to make his campaign for president official in Atlanta on Saturday. Meanwhile, the race's presumed front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, is still in an exploratory phase but is campaigning in South Carolina this weekend.

Pawlenty is seen as one of the race's early favorites, despite lagging poll numbers compared to the better-known Romney. A recent Gallup poll showed only 48 percent of Republicans recognized his name, the same percentage who knew the name of former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), considered a long-shot in the race.

The Democratic National Committee raised $12.4 million during the month of April, according to figures provided by a DNC official, doubling the $6 million haul raised by the Republican National Committee during the same period.

The DNC has raised $33 million so far in 2011, putting the committee ahead of the RNC, which has brought in $23.7 million so far this year. The DNC had $14.8 million in the bank as of the end of April; the RNC had $5 million cash on hand.

An important factor to take into account: The quarterly and year-to-date DNC figures include a transfer in the amount of $7 million to the DNC from the Obama Victory Fund (a joint fundraising account between the DNC and the president's re-election campaign). The first $5,000 of a contribution to the fund goes to the campaign and everything above that figure goes to the DNC.

Both committees have considerable debt, as the DNC owes $15.4 million, while the RNC is carrying about $19 million, after paying down about $5 million since Reince Priebus took over as chairman, including $1 million in April.

-- Updated at 12:32 p.m.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. In the Aloha State, Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) joins former Rep. Ed Case (D) in the Hawaii Senate race. Meanwhile, in Nevada, a judge's ruling dramatically changes the way the Nevada special election will be conducted, while in New Hampshire, former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (R) has no apologies. Here's today's rundown:

10) Katie Couric is closing in on a deal with ABC to host an afternoon talk show beginning in the fall of 2012.

9) It's official: Republican Craig Huey will face Democrat Janice Hahn in the July 12 CA-36 special election runoff, as California Secretary of State Debra Bowen conceded Thursday after updated ballot totals showed Huey with an insurmountable lead for second place. Hahn starts out as the heavy favorite in a southern California district that gave President Obama 64 percent of the vote.

8) Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) will headline a National Republican Senatorial Committee fundraiser next Wednesday, appearing with Sens. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Dan Coats (R-Ind.), and Dick Lugar (R-Ind.). A source tells The Hill Daniels will decide whether or not to make a White House bid by the end of the month.

Priorities USA, the independent group founded by two former aides to President Obama to counter groups like American Crossroads that take unregulated, undisclosed donations is going up with a television ad in South Carolina targeting former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R).

The ad marks the first time in the in the 2012 presidential election that a Democratic-affiliated outside group taking secret money -- a practice the Obama administration has criticized heavily in the past -- is going after Republicans on television.

The spot, launched ahead of Romney's visit to the state this weekend, pushes the former Bay State governor to take a position on the Medicare proposal in the budget plan offered by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). Take a side, the ad implies: either you're with with presidential candidate Newt Gingrich, who denounced the plan as "radical change" and "right-wing social engineering," or with South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R), who has criticized Gingrich for his comments.

"Newt Gingrich says the Republican plan that would essentially end Medicare is too "radical". Governor Haley thinks the plan is courageous, and Gingrich shouldn't be cutting conservatives off at the knees," the ad says. "Mitt Romney says he's "on the same page" as Paul Ryan, who wrote the plan to essentially end Medicare. But with Mitt Romney, you have to wonder...which page is he on today?"

A Nevada District Court judge has sided with the state Republican party in their lawsuit over ballot rules in the special election in Nevada's 2nd District, ruling that parties should be allowed to nominate their own candidates, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports.

The decision overturned Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller's determination earlier this month that all qualifying candidates would run on the same ballot. The special election is scheduled for September 13.

"The secretary of state is picking and choosing" the portions of the law that back up his decision, Judge Todd Russell wrote in the ruling. "That doesn't make sense to the court."

In addition, Russell gave parties until June 30 to choose their nominees. Under Miller's ruling, party filing was to open Monday, May 23 and close Wednesday May 25.

The state Democratic party could still appeal to the state Supreme Court to reverse the ruling.

The decision is a victory for the GOP, who had worried the looming free-for-all to fill the vacant seat could have split the Republican field and allowed for a Democrat to take the seat. The vacancy came about when Republican congressman Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate earlier this month after former GOP Sen. John Ensign resigned.

"We are pleased with the court's ruling today and believe that the true winners are the constituents of Nevada's 2nd Congressional District," said Nevada Republican Party executive director Cory Adair. "Our position is and has always been consistent with election law and tradition in Nevada; today's ruling reaffirmed our position."

Democratic Secretary of State Debra Bowen conceded Thursday in the special election in California's 36th District after updated ballot totals showed Republican Craig Huey with an insurmountable lead for the second spot in a July runoff.

Democrat Janice Hahn finished first in balloting and had already secured a place in the July 12 runoff. But after Tuesday's all-party primary between 16 candidates, Huey only led Bowen by 206 votes. After 10,327 additional ballots were counted though, Huey's lead expanded to 750, with only 200 left to count by Friday.

"Since Tuesday's election, my staff, legal advisors and election experts participated in the ballot review process to ensure a full and fair vote count was conducted. It is clear now that I will not be in the runoff and I congratulate Janice Hahn and Craig Huey," Bowen said in a statement.

According to the updated totals, Huey's vote total now stands at 14,096 (22.24%) to Bowen's 13,346 (21.05%). Hahn, a Los Angeles City councilwoman, took 15,607 votes (24.62%).

Rep. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) is running for retiring Sen. Daniel Akaka's (D) seat, she announced in a video Thursday.

"Today, because we need a strong voice for a stronger Hawaii, I'm announcing my candidacy for United States Senate," said Hirono, who currently represents Hawaii's 2nd District.

Former Rep. Ed Case (D), who has already announced his candidacy, is seen as more conservative as Hirono. In a recent Hawaii Poll conducted by Ward Research, Case and Hirono were neck and neck, but led the pack in a hypothetical Democratic race.

According to Federal Election Commission reports through the end of March, Hirono had $290,000 in the bank in her House account -- but also had $127,000 in debt.

Case and Hirono are the only candidates currently in the race, but other names mentioned as possibilities include Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D), former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) and Lt. Gov Brian Schatz (D).

Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle (R) would be the favorite on the GOP side if she decides to run. Lingle recently said she would decide by the end of August whether she will run.

Hirono and Case ran against each other in the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary and Hirono won a close race but went on to lose to Lingle in the general election.

Brent Bozell has a message for the field of GOP presidential candidates: Time to step up.

The president of conservative watchdog group Media Research Center told Hotline On Call in an interview Thursday that any candidate who wants to win GOP presidential nomination needs to start laying out an ambitious policy agenda that satisfies conservatives. Thus far, the candidates running or flirting with a campaign have disappointed with their seemingly lackadaisical approach, he said.

"Mitt Romney is running on Romney care -- good luck fella winning nomination on that one," said Bozell. "Newt is running on attacking other conservatives. (Tim) Pawlenty is running on God knows what. Where are they with the dramatic proposals when this country is going to hell in a hand basket?"

His criticism reflects an angst among some conservative activists that the momentum the movement gained in November, when it recaptured the House and made significant gains in the Senate, has somewhat bogged down in recent months. Repealing President Obama's health care legislation has stalled without GOP control of the Senate, and Democrats have scored political points attacking the House Republican budget, which included an overhaul of Medicare.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) will headline a June 16 fundraiser for Kentucky GOP gubernatorial nominee and state Senate President David Williams, the Williams campaign announced Thursday.

Barbour served as chairman of the Republican Governors Association in the 2010 election cycle.

Williams advanced to a general election matchup with Gov. Steve Beshear (D) Tuesday, winning a primary characterized by a smaller than anticipated margin over Phil Moffett (R), who ran as a Tea Party candidate. Turnout in the race was very low.

Beshear, meanwhile, ran unopposed on the Democratic side and heads into the general election as the early front-runner. He's made a three-week $90,000 television ad buy beginning next week in the Louisville, Lexington and Owensboro cable markets, cn|2 reports. Beshear begins the general election with a significant cash on hand advantage over Williams.

CNN and the Southern Republican Leadership Conference will host a Republican presidential town hall debate in Charleston, South Carolina on Thursday, Jan. 19, 2012, CNN announced Thursday.

The debate, which will be part of the SRLC's biennial conference, is scheduled for Jan. 19, 2012.

Fox News and the South Carolina GOP, which co-hosted the first debate of the GOP primary campaign last month -- an event most notable for its lack of big name candidates -- is hosting another Palmetto State debate in the lead-up to the S.C. primary in 2012. A date hasn't yet been finalized for that debate.

For a full list of debates, Hotline subscribers can check out our GOP primary presidential debate calendar .

If Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) can't find a suitable House district to run in next year, he can count on at least one man's support if he launches another presidential bid.

As we reported Wednesday, after former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson's (R) presidential campaign put out a release indicating Texas musical icon Willie Nelson and the "Teapot Party" endorsed his candidacy, Nelson responded by saying "While I encourage Mr. Johnson's support of the legalization of marijuana, people should always vote on all the issues and from their hearts and own circumstances."

Not exactly a bear hug of an endorsement.

But according to a blog post on teapotpartyblog.com by a member, Nelson originally suggested endorsing Johnson, but then suffered a little buyer's remorse, writing back, "my bad. Sorry. ... if it came down to either him or Gary I'm already committed to Dennis. They both have said they support legal pot."

If Kucinich makes a House run outside Ohio, can we count on Nelson, who backed him in 2008, to hit the trail, introducing him at rallies to "On The Road Again"?

We'll just have to wait and see.

Much of the criticism Democrats lobbed at Sen. Dan Coats (R-Ind.) during the 2010 campaign revolved around his lobbying work. Now, Indiana Democrats are defending gubernatorial candidate and former state House Speaker John Gregg (D), who is a registered lobbyist.

Many of the same Democrats who criticized Coats last year are backing Gregg, the AP notes.

While different politically, Gregg's profile bears some resemblance to Coats' circa 2010: he's been out of elected office for about a decade, he is a registered lobbyist, and he's a statewide candidate.

Joining a lobbying firm after leaving office is far from uncommon (this year, just ask Pete Hoekstra, Blanche Lincoln or Stephanie Herseth Sandlin). Coats cruised to victory in 2010 and the attacks - which zeroed in on Coats' clients -- never made a deep impact.

Gregg's status as a registered lobbyist may not emerge as a major issue either -- and his spokesperson says he isn't actively lobbying. Attacks over lobbying may work in some cases, and may not in others; only the particulars of the race will determine that. But here's another reminder that both parties will at least try to go on offense with the issue.

An overwhelming number of political operatives in both parties say that they never thought celebrity developer and TV show host Donald Trump was serious about seeking the presidency, according the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll. At the same time, many were amazed that some in the media thought he was.

Political operatives in both parties believe that Republican White House hopeful former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty gains the most from former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's decision not to make another run for the GOP presidential nomination next year, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll. But it's no windfall.

The Daily Show's Samantha Bee doesn't think Newt Gingrich can come back from his disastrous week, "Pack it in Newt, it was a good run."

Jay Leno has the latest news report on other women claiming they had relationships with former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:45 to feel the rainbow.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (R) is headed for the Granite State, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) makes plans to head to South Carolina. Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear (D) wastes no time hitting the airwaves while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) records a call for Republican Jane Corwin in NY 26. Here's today's rundown:

9) The Florida Times-Union takes a closer look at the Jacksonville mayoral race, which many observers thought would be an easy win for Republican Mike Hogan but turned into a victory for Democrat Alvin Brown, who became Jacksonville's first African-American mayor.

8) As Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-Mo.) mulls his political future, he was spotted at a Kansas City Democratic event over the weekend -- on the other side of the state from his St. Louis home and the House districts in which he might run -- touching off speculation that he might be eyeing a run for lieutenant governor or another statewide office, Roll Call reports.

7) Roll Call also reports on the relationship between the Democratic Policy and Communications Center and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The overhauled Democratic communications war room has emerged as an unofficial partner to the DSCC.

6) Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) told FOX on Wednesday that she is still "seriously considering" a White House bid and is waiting to see how the rest of the GOP field shapes up before making a decision.

Ohio voters remain split on re-electing President Obama, while Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) begins his re-election campaign with sizable but not overwhelming leads over three possible Republican rivals, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Thursday.

Nearly half -- 49 percent -- of Buckeye State approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 45 percent disapprove. That is a slight improvement from the previous poll, conducted in mid-March, when 47 percent of voters approved of Obama's job performance, and 48 percent disapproved.

But Obama has lost ground in a matchup against a generic Republican. In March, Obama led a generic Republican by seven points (41 percent to 34 percent), but that lead is now only two points (41 percent to 39 percent). Voters are split evenly, 47 percent to 47 percent, on whether Obama deserves to be re-elected. And a majority of voters, 55 percent, disapproves of the job Obama is doing handling the economy.

Meanwhile, nearly half of voters, 49 percent, also approve of the job Brown is doing in the Senate, but only 30 percent disapprove. That is a slight improvement from March, when 43 percent of voters approved of Brown. Asked whether Brown deserves to be re-elected, 49 percent of Ohio voters believe that he does, while just 31 percent believe he doesn't.

Matched up against three possible Republican candidates, Brown posts healthy leads but fails to crack the 50-percent mark. Brown leads former Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, 44 percent to 35 percent. He has double-digit advantages against Treasurer Josh Mandel (45 percent to 31 percent) and former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin (44 percent to 28 percent).

Blackwell, the 2006 Republican gubernatorial nominee, has the early advantage in a GOP primary. Among registered Republicans, Blackwell earns a third of the vote in a primary matchup against Mandel (17 percent) and Coughlin (5 percent), but 43 percent of Republican voters are undecided.

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) isn't even a Senate candidate yet, but he's absorbed his share of blows the last 24 hours. Add the Club for Growth, a group committed to fiscally conservative principles, to the list of groups and people going after the former governor.

"Tommy Thompson raised taxes as Governor, supported ObamaCare, and now he wants to run for the United States Senate? April Fools was weeks ago," said Club for Growth President Chris Chocola in a scathing statement Wednesday. "Wisconsin Republicans should recruit a pro-growth conservative to run, not recall some big-government pro-tax Republican whose time has come and gone. Club members are watching Wisconsin's Senate race closely."

Thompson expressed support in 2009 for an early version of the Democratic health care reform measure in the Senate that later passed -- a story that made the rounds in the national media Tuesday. Democrats have even gone on the record to praise Thompson, a move aimed squarely at undermining his credibility in a Republican primary.

Since Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) announced last Friday that he will retire at the end of his term, among the names immediately floated by operatives was Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). Baldwin, a liberal member of the House who was first elected in 1998 is likely to launch a bid, sources familiar with her thinking confirm.

Baldwin would certainly be formidable in a Democratic primary, thanks to her strong support with core elements of the Democratic base - progressives, gay activists and college students. She's always been a top fundraiser, and would be the first openly gay senator, if elected. That virtually guarantees a lot of outside money for her campaign.

Baldwin represents Wisconsin's 2nd District, which includes Madison and surrounding Dane County, known for its activist liberal politics. In the past, EMILY's List has supported Baldwin and she'd be expected to attract strong out-of-state support.

According to National Journal's 2010 vote rankings, Baldwin finished in a tie for first as the most liberal Member of Congress. President Obama won Baldwin's district 69 percent of the vote in 2008; Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won 62 percent of the vote there in 2004.

Can a candidate as liberal as Baldwin win statewide? And in Wisconsin, which does not have a history of electing many women statewide officials? Baldwin's allies note that in a down year for Democrats in Wisconsin in which the GOP netted two House seats, won the governor's race and unseated former Sen. Russ Feingold, Baldwin was re-elected with nearly 62 percent of the vote. They also note that she also represents rural areas as well as urban centers in her district.

A new Quinnipiac University poll out early Wednesday showed that a majority of Ohioans favor repealing a recently-enacted law that limits collective bargaining for public employees. But from a polling perspective, it also suggested that, as Ohio voters became more aware of the debate that culminated with the bill's passage, certain rhetorical arguments became less important -- and opinions on the issue became less pliable.

When pollsters began testing public opinion on the issues surrounding collective bargaining, Republican pollster Adam Geller suggested that some pollsters' use of the phrase "collective bargaining rights" made respondents more likely to oppose limits on public-employee unions.

Quinnipiac, in fact, tested this argument in their last Ohio poll. Using a split sample, they asked respondents if they support or oppose "limiting collective bargaining for public employees" -- only, for half the sample, they inserted the word "rights" after "collective bargaining." The Q poll, conducted in mid-March, found Ohio voters were slightly more likely to support limiting collective bargaining when the word "rights" is omitted.

But in their new poll, there is virtually no difference in poll results among those asked the question with the word "rights" included, or without. Equal numbers of voters -- 38 percent -- support limiting collective bargaining, regardless of whether the word "rights" is included. And the percentages of voters who oppose those limits are virtually equal across both samples -- 50 percent without the word "rights," 51 percent with.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted May 10-16, surveying 1,379 registered voters. The margin of error for the full poll is +/- 2.6 percent, but the margin of error is higher for results of split-sample questions.

DALLAS -- The Republican National Committee has knocked another $1 million off its massive debt, the party will report to the Federal Election Commission this month.

The RNC raised more than $6 million in April and kept $5 million in the bank, the filings will show. The party still owes about $19 million in debt after paying off about $5 million since new chairman Reince Priebus took over in January.

Priebus himself has skin in the game, an RNC source said. Priebus gave $5,000 to the committee last month, the source said.

How bad a week is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) having? Even Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) feels sorry for him.

The tough-talking Democrat from Brooklyn said the former House GOP leader was only trying to talk sense into the Republican Party when he criticized Paul Ryan's budget plan as "right-wing social engineering" during a Sunday appearance on NBC's "Meet The Press." What he didn't know, Schumer said, was conservatives have made Ryan's budget a new litmus test for the presidential primary.

"It seems he entered the campaign only to find his Republican Party has been pushed considerably father to the right than the party he led in the 90s," Schumer told reporters on a conference call. "It's astounding."

The former House speaker has been excoriated by conservatives since his comments Sunday, eventually forcing him to apologize to Ryan yesterday afternoon.

He's a former Republican governor receiving praise from Democrats looking to sully his reputation in a GOP primary.

No, we're not talking about Mitt Romney. Tommy Thompson, the former Wisconsin governor, is getting some Romney-style treatment as he mulls a Senate bid.

"Unlike many on the far right, Thompson was a voice of moderation and offered his voice at crucial junctions to help pass the Affordable Care Act," former AFL-CIO communications strategist Eddie Vale told Politico. Vale is now a spokesman for Protect Your Care, a group founded to defend President Obama's signature domestic achievement.

Thompson expressed support in 2009 for an early version of the Democratic health care reform measure in the Senate that later passed. Stories about his 2009 position made the rounds Tuesday as buzz ramped up about a possible Senate announcement that has not yet arrived. Thompson, meanwhile, was traveling to Japan Tuesday.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Republican David Williams survived a closer-than-expected GOP gubernatorial primary in Kentucky on Thursday while the CA-36 primary produced a surprise second-place finisher. Meanwhile, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) learns it's not easy being a presumptive front-runner. Plus: former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson gets the full Nelson. Here's today's rundown:

9) It seemed a little strange when former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson (R) announced that he had gotten the endorsement of Texas musical icon Willie Nelson. While the two do share a tolerance for a certain illegal substance, would the lefty Nelson back a Republican presidential candidate? When asked about Johnson's claim, Nelson issued this less than ringing endorsement: "While I encourage Mr. Johnson's support of the legalization of marijuana, people should always vote on all the issues and from their hearts and own circumstances."

8) Former Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) is headed to K Street and will join Alston & Bird.

7) In a blow to bipartisan deficit reduction negotiations, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) dropped out of the "Gang of Six" talks Tuesday.

6) In NY-26, Republican Jane Corwin is pouring another $300,000 of her own money into her campaign. Meanwhile, American Crossroads is extending their ad buy, but is now shifting gears and going after Democrat Kathy Hochul.

Jon Stewart wants Donald Trump back, "Here's the deal, don't quit. Come back. ... We spent $450 million, that we don't have, building The Daily Shows's Donald Trump Presidential Joke Headquarters."

David Letterman on Newt Gingrich: "Newt looks like a guy that calls flight attendants sweet heart."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00, Trump doesn't let reality dampen his victory. Then let us know if you think Trump should get back in the race in our Late Night Poll!

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Self-funding Republican Craig Huey appears to have pulled off a surprising upset Tuesday night, leapfrogging Democrat Debra Bowen to advance to a July 12 runoff in the special election to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.). He'll face Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, who finished first in the 16-candidate field.

With all precincts reporting, Huey leads Bowen, the California secretary of state, by just 206 votes - but it's a slim margin that will likely hang in uncertainty until more than 9,000 absentee ballots are counted. The AP has only called the race for Hahn, and not for Huey.

Hahn led all candidates with 24.7 percent of the vote, and she was expected to face Bowen in the July runoff in the first test of the state's first all-party primary, which entailed rules that could have allowed for two members of the same party in the multi-candidate field to advance.

However, it was Huey, a wealthy businessman who put a half-million of his own money into his campaign and spent more than $300,000 on radio and TV ads, who pulled the upset. Neither Bowen nor Hahn had been up on television.

Currently, Huey leads all Republicans with 21.9 percent, or 11,648 votes. Bowen trails with 21.5 percent, or 11,442 votes.

If he moves on, Huey will face a stiff challenge against in the runoff - all Democratic candidates received a total of 56 percent of the vote. The district gave 64 percent of the vote for President Obama in 2008.

In a race where he outraised his nearest competitor 10-1, led by over 20 points in every public poll and was the only candidate to go up on television, Kentucky Senate President David Williams defeated businessman Phil Moffett in the GOP gubernatorial primary by a smaller-than-anticipated margin Tuesday, in a contest characterized by extremely low turnout.

With 95 percent of precincts reporting, the Associated Press has called the race for Williams, who leads Moffett 47 percent to 38 percent, with Jefferson County Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw at 14 percent.

With over 97 percent of the vote tallied, turnout on Tuesday was projected by the secretary of state to be 9.05 percent, on pace for the lowest showing since the 1999 primary, when just 6.4 percent of voters turned out.

Williams' victory comes after his ticket dwarfed his rivals in fundraising, raising over $1.2 million for the primary. Moffett raised about $120,000 and Holsclaw hauled in less than $30,000. Williams also ran two television ads and a series of radio ads and did direct mail drops while neither of his opponents had the funds to air a single television ad, making Tuesday's results somewhat surprising. Moffett ran as a Tea Party candidate, but his campaign never picked up very much steam, while Holsclaw stressed her electability in a general election.

We're less than one week away from the May 24 special election in New York's 26th District. Here's a wrap of the latest developments in the race - Republican Jane Corwin puts in more of her own money, Democrat Kathy Hochul keeps hammering Medicare and Crossroads changes its plan of attack.

-- Corwin put another $300,000 of her own funds into her campaign today, now bringing her self-funding total up to $2.76 million in the race. She's been raising additional funds too, and on Monday also got a $2,500 donation from Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) Prosperity PAC.

Corwin's self-funding level exceeds even that of independent Jack Davis, the self-proclaimed Tea Party candidate in the race that the GOP worries has made this election artificially competitive. On Tuesday, Davis put another $550,000 into his campaign coffers, bringing his total up to nearly $2.65 million. Davis has said he'll spend as much as $3 million, and isn't taking any donations.

-- Conservative group American Crossroads has officially extended their ad buy in the race - buying another $375,000 worth of airtime to bring their total investment in the race to more than $700,000. But while their first ad last week hit Davis for his Democratic past, the influential outside group is now switching gears to attack Hochul -- a sign that they now view her surging candidacy as the greatest potential threat to Corwin.

Caught in a tumult of criticism after criticizing Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) budget proposal, Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich on Tuesday afternoon called to apologize to the House Budget chairman, Ryan's office and a campaign spokesman confirm to National Journal.

Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler said his boss "apologized for his in-artful way of expressing his point" over Ryan's plan, which would effectively voucherize Medicare for those younger than 55. The former speaker of the House on Sunday said it was a mistake to make the voucher system mandatory and called it politically undoable, setting off a storm of criticism that continued unabated for the next 48 hours.

The criticism, which ranged from the Wall Street Journal to the National Review, threatened to knock Gingrich's not-yet-one-week-old campaign off track just as it was getting started. The damage was exacerbated by the fact that even as he reiterated he would repeal President Obama's health care plan, he maintained Ryan's budget was too politically toxic to pass into law.

Tyler said Gingrich wasn't backing off that criticism but said the candidate wanted to work with Ryan to devise a plan that would be popular with the public.

"We look to forward to help winning the argument," said Tyler. "And then we'll win the vote."

The former congressman made the call this afternoon while in Minneapolis for an event, Tyler said. He added that the two men had exchanged e-mails beforehand.

"I don't think there are any hard feelings between them," he said.

Wisconsin's current GOP senator and the head of Senate Republicans' campaign arm are not quite rolling out the red carpet for a likely run by former HHS Secretary and Wisconsin Gov. and Tommy Thompson for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) next year.

In 2009,Thompson endorsed a Senate health care bill that was an early version of the measure that eventually passed. That is sharp contrast from freshman Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), a former businessman who did not hold elected office until defeating Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) last year. Johnson has said he entered the race due to opposition to Democrats' health care overhaul, and made that position a centerpiece of his campaign.

Asked about that contrast Tuesday, Johnson said he hopes Thompson will "change his mind," and was noncommittal on a run by Thompson, who is likely to face primary opposition from the right.

"My guess is that maybe other people will hop in the race and I think we'll have a number of pretty good candidates that might vie for the nomination," Johnson said. "We'll wait and see."

DALLAS -- What does Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) think of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) health care plan? Not much, apparently.

Attending a Republican National Committee meeting here on Tuesday, reporters asked Perry how he felt about former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) lambasting Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) budget proposal as "right-wing social engineering." Perry wouldn't take a shot at Gingrich, but it sure sounded like he took one at Romney.

"I'll have to let Newt kind of work his way off that cliff. The fact is, I'm a big believer that if you want to put a plan like ObamaCare into your state, that's your business. If you believe that, then that's your business," Perry said.

Perry then set about answering the question the way Gingrich may wish he'd have answered on Sunday's Meet the Press: "What I truly believe Newt believes in is pushing that back and letting the states make those decisions and not having it micro-managed from Washington D.C. That, from my perspective, is the real answer to this. ObamaCare needs to be done away with," Perry said.

If he meant it as a shot at Romney's health care plan, it wouldn't be the first time. In November, Perry told Fox News host Greta Van Susteren that backing away from Commonwealth Care would help Romney's presidential chances. "I think it's a problem to go -- if he were to stand up and say 'You know what, this was a program that didn't work, and I wish I hadn't tried it' -- I think that would help him substantially," Perry said back in November.

They avoided the heat last time, but may not this time around.

Some freshmen Republicans who didn't host formal town hall meetings over the Easter recess will take to the podium this week as the debate over the GOP budget and its changes to Medicare rages on.

Reps. Chip Cravaack (R-Minn.), Scott Rigell (R-Va.) and Joe Heck (R-Nev.) have scheduled town hall meetings when they head home this week, after skipping out on the public forums in April. But Rep. Jon Runyan (R-N.J.) has managed to keep the open forums off his schedules for two Congressional breaks in a row.

Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) budget proposal was the focal point of many April town halls, with Democrats slamming the plan as a threat to Medicare and Republicans championing Ryan's attempt to tackle the looming federal deficit. In severa; meetings, congressmen were heckled and constituents were escorted out of the room. Some liberal groups targeted Republican town halls with protests during the last recess, and have signaled they plan to do so again.

Ryan's proposed changes to Medicare will remain very much in the spotlight this recess. The DCCC launched a robo-call campaign Monday targeting Republicans who voted for the House budget, including Heck. Protestors picketed outside as Ryan defended his budged in a speech at the Chicago Economic Club on Monday. Republicans have defended the changes as necessary to keep the system solvent for future generations.

If you're gauging whether former-Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) is thinking about trying to return to the Senate, consider this: he sent out an email to supporters Tuesday that bashes Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), who faces a tough re-election bid in 2012, among other Democrats in Congress.

The e-mail was sent from his perch at Progressives United, a group dedicated to pushing back against the Supreme Court's 2010 "Citizens United" ruling that rejected limiting corporate political spending.

"This culture of corporate influence and corruption is precisely what we as Progressives United want to change," he wrote. "So we've decided to take on those legislators who are unwilling to stand up to corporate power, and we're naming names."

Feingold has a history of being an independent voice not afraid to break with his party. But he's not likely to make any new friends at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee with his new criticism, a sign that he may not have much interest in a political comeback.

The e-mail targets three Democrats - McCaskill, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) He also names three Republicans: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.).

Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) announced Tuesday that he will challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), joining former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman in a growing GOP field

"I am today announcing my candidacy for the United States Senate because of my deep concern about the condition of our economy, the debt, and excessive federal spending," Akin said. "I am deeply grateful for the support and encouragement I have received from fellow Missourians who share my convictions."

The congressman, who has served since 2001, has been mulling a run for weeks, and as he considered his options, other Republicans exited the race. Former Ambassador to Luxembourg Ann Wagner announced last month that she was forming an exploratory committee for Akin's 2nd District seat, anticipating that Akin would vacate the seat to challenge McCaskill. Another Republican, Ed Martin, who initially was running for the Senate, moved over to run for Akin's House seat earlier this month.

Akin has a staunchly conservative voting record in the House. As Steelman put up weak first quarter fundraising numbers, Akin impressed observers with his own figures, banking just under a million dollars at the end of March.

Republicans eager to find out if Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) is running for president could get their answer soon -- Daniels told reporters Tuesday he's "not going to take much longer" to decide whether to launch a bid for the White House, according to the AP.

But Daniels, who wrapped up his legislation session in the Hoosier State only late last month, added that once he makes a decision, he doesn't have a timetable for when he'll publicly announce it.

The former budget director under George W. Bush is one of the last remaining candidates on the fence about running. He's flirted with a bid for months, making high-profile speeches at CPAC and the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, but has yet to solidly indicate which direction he's leaning.

If he runs, Daniels would enter the race as one of its favorites, along with former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Tuesday's special election in California's 36th District is a prequel to what will likely be the main event on July 12. If no candidate gets a majority of votes cast - highly unlikely in the crowded 16 person field - the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff in the first test of the state's new "jungle primary" system.

The Frontrunners: Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn jumped into the race almost immediately after now-former Rep. Jane Harman announced in February she'd step down to head the Woodrow Wilson Center. Hahn and Harman are close, and while Hahn doesn't have the former congresswoman's official endorsement, Harman did provide her with a heads-up she was leaving. Hahn comes from a well-known political family - her brother, James, served as the city's mayor from 2001 until 2005, and her father, Kenneth, was a county supervisor for forty years.

California Secretary of State Debra Bowen took a bit longer to officially decide, but since her entrance, the two women have been at the top of a very crowded pack in the all-party primary. Hahn quickly rolled out endorsement after endorsement of other Members of the state's Congressional delegation, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, and even former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt. She's also garnered most of the labor endorsements in the race.

Bowen has worked to paint herself as the more progressive candidate in the race, particularly on environmental issues, and has been endorsed by Democracy for America, former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, and the Sierra Club.

There's been no public polling done in the race, and the one internal poll released by Bowen last month showed the two women tied with 20 percent apiece. Another sign both are waiting for overtime to pounce - neither has aired any television ads in the race. The California Democratic Party split on their own endorsement between the two, with Hahn grabbing the most support, but neither got enough votes to get the nod.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is staying in the House, and won't run for the U.S. Senate, two well-placed GOP sources tell National Journal.

Ryan began informing close friends of his decision Tuesday and is expected to announce later in the day. Three GOP sources tell National Journal as soon as Ryan officially announces he won't run for the Senate, former Wisconsin GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson, is expected to announce his candidacy for the Senate seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl, who recently announced he was retiring.

Read the complete story on Nationaljournal.com.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Voters head to the polls in Kentucky and CA-36 today. Meanwhile, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich tried to do some damage control Monday following his Sunday comments on a health care mandate and House Budget Chair Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) budget proposal. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) raises big bucks, and yes, Arnold is back in the news. Here's today's rundown:

10) Former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and his wife, Maria Shriver, separated after she learned he had fathered a child more than a decade ago with a longtime member of their household staff, the Los Angeles Times reports.

9) James Bopp Jr., the attorney who brought the Supreme Court the Citizens United case, and Louisiana GOP chair Roger Villere have formed a Super PAC designed to be a vehicle for unlimited contributions toward independent expenditures in support of state and national GOP candidates.

8) The U.S. officially reached the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling Monday, but rather than heading to the negotiating table, members of both parties ran to the television cameras, Roll Call reports.

7) Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle (R) says she will announce by the end of August whether she will make a Senate bid.

Stephen Colbert can't believe that Donald Trump isn't going to run for president, "What? Who is going to tell OPEC the fun is over ... who, who is going to break this to Meat Loaf?"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:15 to see former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee jam with Ted Nugent before announcing he's not running for president in 2012.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Rep. Rick Berg (R-N.D.) officially announced his Senate candidacy for retiring Sen. Kent Conrad's (D) seat Monday via a video announcement, giving his party a top candidate in the open seat race.

Even though he is still new to Congress, earning a first term after defeating Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) in 2010, Berg is popular in state Republican circles. More than 80 prominent North Dakota Republicans signed a letter encouraging him to run.

"Unfortunately, President Obama, Harry Reid and Senate Democrats have stopped real reforms," says Berg in the video. "That's why I'm running to be North Dakota's Senator, to bring much-needed change to the Senate."

Berg also directly goes after government spending and health care reform in his announcement.

"The future of our nation hangs on the Senate's willingness to listen to the American people and work to get our country back on track," he says. "To stop the reckless spending grow the energy sector and create policies that will rein in government and help create jobs, the Senate needs to change. We must stop Obamacare."

While he has garnered notable support, not all Republicans are in Berg's corner. Even before entering the race, Berg was attacked by the Club for Growth.

Two days after former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) announced on his Fox News Channel program that he will not run for president in 2012, his 2008 South Carolina campaign chairman pledged his support to former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (R), who has taken steps towards a presidential run of his own.

"Like all of us who worked so hard for my good friend Mike Huckabee's 2008 campaign, I was disappointed he decided not to run for president this year. However, in the quest to replace Barack Obama, we must quickly look to the future," Mike Campbell said in a statement Monday.

"On his recent visit to South Carolina, I had the opportunity to meet with Governor Jon Huntsman, and I was extremely impressed. As Governor of Utah, Jon Huntsman demonstrated he is the type of problem-solver our country needs," Campbell continued. "He's a proven conservative who cut taxes, grew jobs, passed free-market health care reform, and signed strong pro-life legislation."

Campbell is a businessman and the son of the late former Gov. Carroll Campbell (R). He was an early supporter of Huckabee in the Palmetto State in the 2008 primary. Huckabee finished second in South Carolina in 2008, losing a competitive contest to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Kentucky Senate President David Williams (R) is the front-runner in the Republican primary for governor on Tuesday, leading competitors Phil Moffett (R), a businessman, and Jefferson County Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw (R) in polling and fundraising.

Gov. Steve Beshear (D) is unopposed on the Democratic side. First elected to his post in 2007 by defeating former Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R), Beshear is running for his second term.

The GOP race: While Williams is expected to win, there are two variables that could complicate his path to victory: a low turnout and his running mate's problems. But neither Moffett nor Holsclaw has shown an ability to capitalize on the Williams ticket's weaknesses. While Moffett has billed himself as the Tea Party candidate in the race, Williams actually earns more support from self-identified Tea Party activists in polling.

Holsclaw has claimed that she is the only candidate that can win Democratic support in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans, but her lack of fundraising, lack of campaigning and lack of name identification outside of the greater Louisville area are not likely to sway a significant number of GOP primary voters in this closed-primary election where voter turnout might not break 10 percent.

As of the end of April, Williams, the clear establishment candidate in the GOP contest, raised more than $1.2 million compared to $112,000 for Moffett and $23,000 for Holsclaw. That has allowed Williams to dominate the airwaves virtually uncontested, as neither Moffett nor Holsclaw have aired any television ads (Moffett has only gone on radio). Holsclaw entered the contest just two and a half months ago and neither Moffett nor Holsclaw have hit the stump as frequently as Williams.

Former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg (D) filed paperwork Monday to launch an exploratory committee for the Indiana gubernatorial race.

Gregg, who was speaker of the Indiana House from 1996-2002, will formally launch his campaign and organization "in the near future," according to a release from his committee. He announced in April that he planned to form an exploratory committee. No other Democrats have entered the race.

"Hoosiers are tired of the divisive politics we've seen so much of lately, especially when so many of our friends and neighbors have been left behind in this economic recession," Gregg said in a statement. "It will take all of us -- Republicans and Democrats; rural and urban; Millennials and their grandparents -- to forge a path that brings jobs back to Indiana."

"Our problems don't belong to one party or the other. Neither do the solutions," Gregg says in his announcement video.

On the GOP side, Rep. Mike Pence (R) is the front-runner. Businessman and former Hamilton Co. Councilman Jim Wallace is also running in the GOP race.

The bump President Obama received after the killing of Osama bin Laden more than two weeks ago in Pakistan has vanished completely, according to the latest Gallup Tracking poll released Monday.

At National Journal:


PICTURES: House Members Reaching for the Senate

Can Ryan Ride a Wave of Controversy to the Senate?

VIDEO: 4 Keys to Immigration Reform

With Trump, Huckabee Out, Less Fun, but More Issues?

Off to the Races: Beyond the Headlines

Obama's approval rating is now at 46 percent, equal to his approval rating in the last tracking poll conducted before Obama addressed Americans late on May 1 and informed them of bin Laden's death. Forty-four percent of Americans now disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president.

According to the Gallup poll, Obama's approval rating crested at 52 percent after the bin Laden killing. His disapproval rating never fell lower than 40 percent.

Obama's bounce is smaller in magnitude and shorter in duration than the bumps enjoyed by other presidents over the past 70 years, according to a study by Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies. For example, George W. Bush received a 15-point bump after the capture of Saddam Hussein in 2003 -- a bounce that lasted seven weeks.

The poll also comes the same day as Gallup announced that three in four Americans "name some type of economic issue as the 'most important problem' facing the country today -- the highest net mentions of the economy in two years. Those numbers, combined with Obama's fleeting boost, suggest the economy remains -- by far -- the dominant issue of the 2012 presidential campaign.

The Gallup poll was conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday, surveying 1,547 adults. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percent.

A Democratic state representative from Boston's western suburbs dialed potential supporters over the weekend, testing the ground for a possible bid against Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), National Journal has learned.

Thomas Conroy, a third-term legislator and risk management consultant, would enter the race a clear long shot even in the Democratic primary. He has low name recognition, but his name circulates at a time when many Massachusetts Democrats are underwhelmed by the current crop.

In an email Monday, Conroy said that no definitive statements have been made on a Senate run.

Newton Mayor Setti Warren, City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, immigration attorney Marisa DeFranco and activist Robert Massie are all seeking the nomination. Former gubernatorial candidate Warren Tolman and financial executive Robert Pozen have also not foreclosed on running. Two Democratic members of the state's House delegation, Reps. Michael Capuano and Stephen Lynch, have not committed in either direction.

Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin's (D) decisive victory in Saturday's Democratic gubernatorial primary in West Virginia could be a big boost for Sen. Joe Manchin's (D) re-election hopes.

As my colleague Julie Sobel has noted, Tomblin is a conservative Democrat in the mold of Manchin. In the primary, he garnered support from groups that usually endorse more Republicans than Democrats, like the National Rifle Association, the West Virginia Coal Association and the state Chamber of Commerce.

Manchin's entire appeal rests on separating himself from the image West Virginians have of the national Democratic Party. Aligning with a centrist like Tomblin, rather than one of the more traditional Democratic contenders, can help, especially because they'll share ballot space with Manchin next year.

Whoever wins the 2011 special election will have to immediately run for re-election again in 2012. If Tomblin wins this year, he'll be on the ballot (assuming he decides to run for re-election and is re-nominated) alongside Manchin, and Democrats will be able to present a politically consistent ticket.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) ruled out a presidential bid Saturday, while on Sunday, House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) took aim at the Ryan budget proposal. The West Virginia gubernatorial race will pit an insider against an outsider. In Wisconsin, Senate race intrigue heats up, and Medicare's still the word in the special election in New York-26. Here's today's rundown:

9) Taking a stand for "PAC-less Americans" everywhere, Stephen Colbert, host of Comedy Central's "The Colbert Report," filed paperwork to form his Colbert Super PAC Friday afternoon at the Federal Election Commission offices in Washington. Colbert said he planned to use his Super PAC funds to buy a private plane for himself and the "Colbert Nation."

"I mean that metaphorically, of course," he said. "A G5 only holds like twelve people."

8) As Hotline On Call reported Saturday, former Minnesota state Rep. Dan Severson (R) will challenge Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D). Severson, who'll become Klobuchar's first official challenger, faces an uphill climb against the popular incumbent.

7) In the West Virginia gubernatorial race, acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) will face off against businessman Bill Maloney (R), as both advanced with ease from their respective primaries Saturday. Tomblin begins the campaign as the early favorite. The race pits two candidates with different backgrounds against each other: Maloney is a political newcomer running as an outsider while Tomblin has served in state politics since the 1970s. Voter turnout was a low 16 percent on Saturday.

President Obama seems more relaxed and confident since the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. SNL's Armisen as Obama: "I'm not hiding anything any more ... I'm not hiding the Hussein either. Don't have to, in fact I might even drop the Barack."

Former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., is having trouble distancing himself from the president's health care plan.

Today's Must See Moment - Fast forward to 0:59 to hear Obama's new catch phrase.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- The clearest beneficiaries of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's (R) decision not to run for president are former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), both of whom hold some appeal to evangelical voters in Iowa and South Carolina.

But don't underestimate what this could do for two long shots -- former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa), and businessman Herman Cain (R) -- both of whom have been generating buzz among the grassroots in the those two early states and could be the next best choice for social conservatives there.

-- Memo to Republican presidential candidates: PowerPoint presentations aren't usually the best way to get across a political message. Last week, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) gave a wonky education speech at AEI where he praised President Obama and failed to emphasize the two conservative buzzwords on education - unions and school choice. (His landmark education bill was a blow to teachers' unions, and offers significantly expanded school choice for parents and students).

And this week former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), ostensibly delivering a political speech designed to put his health care vulnerabilities behind him, decided to double down on his Massachusetts health care plan by giving a dry, off-the-cuff PowerPoint presentation. For a major campaign speech, he handpicked most of the audience, and there weren't any audible applause lines that resonated. The speech was widely panned, by both liberal and conservatives.

If you're running for president of a think tank, dry policy addresses work well. If you're running for president, it's advisable to amp up your game.

-- The West Virginia gubernatorial primary was Saturday, and acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) will face businessman Bill Maloney (R) in the October 4 general election. Maloney will have his work cut out for him in a state that, while conservative, is largely Democratic in state elections: Tomblin's vote total, 51,227 in a big field, exceeded the votes Maloney (27,566) and the second place Republican, former Secretary of State Betty Ireland (18,898) took in combined.

Both Maloney and The Republican Governors Association went after Tomblin after the primaries wrapped up Saturday, while the Democratic Governors Association and Tomblin didn't mention Maloney. As he was in the Democratic primary, Tomblin is the favorite, and as such will now be targeted by both Maloney and his ability to self-fund, and Republicans in Washington. And while Maloney's victory gives the GOP a fresh face to compete for the seat, he's still new to politics, and has not experienced the grind of a general election campaign.

Updated at 10:15 pm

Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin won the Democratic primary in the West Virginia gubernatorial race, notching a resounding win in a large field.

When the AP called the race, Tomblin had 41 percent of the vote and state House Speaker Rick Thompson was in second place with 22 percent, followed by Secretary of State Natalie Tennant with 19 percent, Treasurer John Perdue with 13 percent, and acting state Senate President Jeff Kessler with 6 percent.

"I congratulate Governor Earl Ray Tomblin on his big win tonight and I commend our other great candidates for their hard work in this primary," said West Virginia Democratic Chair Larry Puccio. "We had an all-star lineup in this primary and I am proud of all of our candidates. Democrats are very well-positioned to win the general election with Governor Tomblin."

Tomblin, with superior name recognition and fundraising, was the front-runner throughout the Democratic primary. While other candidates ran attack ads on Tomblin, he maintained a comfortable enough lead to stay above the fray. Thompson collected nearly all the labor support in the race, but it ultimately wasn't enough to catch Tomblin.

"Now is the time to unite our party -- a party I have served and which has served me my entire life," said Tomblin in his victory speech. "To those that supported other candidates -- my message to you is simple -- I am a proud Democrat. And I want your support."

The acting governor will start the general election as the front-runner. He is a conservative Democrat in the mold of Sen. Joe Manchin, and in the primary garnered the support of numerous groups that supported Manchin, from the National Rifle Association to the West Virginia Coal Association to the state Chamber of Commerce.

The Republican Governors Association immediately went after Tomblin in a statement Saturday night.

Political newcomer and businessman Bill Maloney has convincingly defeated former Secretary of State Betty Ireland in the West Virginia Republican gubernatorial primary, according to the Associated Press.

With 68 percent of the vote tallied, the AP called the race for Maloney, a drilling consultant, who leads Ireland 45 percent to 32 percent. Maloney ran as a political outsider and conservative candidate with valuable business experience. He self-funded to the tune of $500,000 and advertised on television much more heavily than Ireland, who began the race as the front-runner, but essentially tried to run out the clock, airing just one ad towards the end of the primary.

Maloney will face off against acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) in the November special election to replace Sen. Joe Manchin (D), the onetime governor who ran for the Senate in 2010. Tomblin enters the race as the early front-runner, boasting superior name identification, a strong and established fundraising network and a politically moderate record.

"Today, thousands of Republicans and Independents cast their vote for conservative values, real-world experience and a fresh approach to the challenges facing our state," Maloney said in his victory statement Saturday. "I am humbled and grateful to be their nominee."

Maloney also immediately went after Tomblin.

"For too long, we've been ruled by career politicians more interested in the ballot box than in the responsibilities of leadership," Maloney said in his victory statement Saturday. "They've swapped one political office for another, with nothing to show but their own ambition. Career politicians like Earl Ray Tomblin have damaged this state and West Virginia has paid the price."

The respective victories of Maloney and Tomblin underscore the different directions voters decided to go in each primary. Tomblin is an establishment Democrat, while the establishment Republican in the race was Ireland, the former statewide officeholder.

"Bill knows what it takes to create jobs and meet a payroll, and that's exactly the type of experience voters have been responding to in states across the country," said Republican Governors Association Executive Director Phil Cox.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) announced Saturday that he won't run for president in 2012, removing a strong contender from the field and underscoring the volatility and wide-open nature of the Republican nominating contest.

"My answer is clear and firm. I will not seek the Republican nomination for president," Huckabee said Saturday evening.

Huckabee said that despite external pressure to run, and supreme confidence that he could win the Republican nomination, he couldn't bring himself to pull the trigger. "All the factors say go, but my heart says no," Huckabee said. "And that's the decision that I have made."

Huckabee announced his decision live on Fox News during the 8 p.m. time slot for his popular cable show, "Huckabee."

The live announcement of Huckabee's decision came at the end of his hour-long program, which included a bizarre blend of news analysis and 1990s pop culture. Huckabee followed segments on torrential flooding and Osama bin Laden's death by interviewing former "Saved by the Bell" star Mario Lopez, who's hawking a new book, and rocker Ted Nugent, with whom Huckabee gleefully performed "Catch Scratch Fever" at the show's conclusion.

The network did not have a statement in response to Huckabee's announcement.

Huckabee's decision not to to run isn't entirely unexpected. He has a lucrative contract with Fox News, which has enabled the Baptist minister who grew up poor to build a Florida mansion. He acknowledged several times during his recent book tour that financial considerations could keep him from running, noting that "If I run, I walk away from a pretty good income."

Yet speculation around Huckabee's potential candidacy heated up several weeks ago when Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) made the surprising decision not to seek the GOP nomination, leaving a vacuum in the Republican field for a southern conservative with populist appeal. Huckabee's ability to fill that void, and connect with evangelical voters in Iowa and South Carolina, rekindled speculation that he could mount another presidential run.

WILLIAMSVILLE, N.Y. - Western New York's long-disregarded Democrats believe a Republican plan to make sweeping changes in Medicare gives them a rare chance to snatch a GOP House seat 10 days from now.

The May 24 special election here to replace former Rep. Chris Lee is a complicated three-way affair, with polls showing a tight race between Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican Jane Corwin. Republicans point to the presence of a third candidate in the race -- Jack Davis, a two-time Democratic nominee for the seat who is now running as a self-proclaimed tea party candidate -- as the reason the race is artificially close.

But on the ground, it's Medicare that's weighing on voters' minds. A proposal by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., to privatize the health insurance program for seniors -- approved by a overwhelming vote of House Republicans as part of the party's budget proposal -- was the dominant issue this in a debate between Hochul and Corwin (Davis was a no-show).

On Saturday, Hochul repeatedly pointed to the House vote one month ago as the tipping point in the race as she spoke to about 40 members at a women's gathering at the Village Meeting House in downtown Williamsville.

Hochul said the April 15 House vote threatened a 45-year-old social contract designed to keep the nation's senior citizens out of poverty.

"Republicans have been in charge just since January, and they decided that they had a different set of priority than I have, than you have, or even that Republicans and independents have in this district," she said.

Mike Huckabee says he will announce whether or not he's running for president on his Fox News show Saturday night, but an e-mail obtained by National Journal that Huckabee sent his inner circle yesterday indicates he has made his decision and he thinks it will surprise people. In the note, Huckabee wrote that "I expect that once I pull the trigger Saturday night, things will get even crazier, as if that's possible."

Huckabee made clear that he had finalized his 2012 decision and apologized for his secrecy in the process, which was a necessity due to the fact that he "committed to Fox that I will absolutely not release it prior to doing so on the channel."

Read Huckabee's complete letter over on Nationaljournal.com.

Former Minnesota state Rep. Dan Severson (R) will announce Monday that he is challenging Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), according to a Republican operative familiar with his decision. Severson will become the first Republican to challenge Klobuchar, as she seeks a second term.

Severson ran unsuccessfully for Minnesota Secretary of State in 2010, but lost by three points to Democratic incumbent Mark Ritchie. He is a retired U.S. Navy pilot and business owner.

Chris Barden, the Republican nominee for state Attorney General in 2010 is also weighing a run, as is state Sen. Dave Thompson (R).

Klobuchar is a popular figure in Minnesota, with polls showing her with high approval ratings. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) told Hotline On Call Friday that she had no interest in challenging Klobuchar, with her attention on the presidential race. Former Sen. Norm Coleman (R), another prominent Minnesota Republican, said earlier this year that he would not challenge Klobuchar.

-- Sean Sullivan contributed to this report.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) became Chair of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee this year, giving her a big say over the 2012 Farm Bill. And she has wasted no time touting that position ahead of her 2012 reelection bid.

Stabenow announced Friday that the panel's first Farm Bill hearing will be May 31 in East Lansing, Mich., at Michigan State University. (On Jan. 11, also in East Lansing, Stabenow addressed the Michigan Agri-Business Association.) The hearing is titled "Opportunities for Growth: Michigan and the 2012 Farm Bill," and will focus on aspects the Farm Bill that will affect the state. While Michigan is known for its auto, not agricultural, industry, it has a significant farming sector. And Stabenow has noted the panel's jurisdiction over forestry also matters there.

Stabenow's touting of her chairmanship follows what might seem a dubious model offered by former Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark). Lincoln took over the panel's chairmanship in August 2009 from Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) in a shifting of committee chairs prompted by the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass). In 2010, Lincoln made much of her ability to use the panel post to deliver for her rural state, playing up her months-long fight to win $1.5 billion in disaster aid that went largely to help Arkansas farmers.

Lincoln was trounced anyway, losing to then-GOP Rep. John Boozman by more than 20 percentage points. Still, it appears Lincoln lost not because of, but in spite of her Agriculture post. And while it will probably not be a big factor in Michigan, Stabenow's position may offer her modest help next year in what could be a tough race.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is not eyeing a Senate seat--for now.

"I am not looking at running for Senate right now," the congresswoman told Hotline On Call. "I am looking at running for the presidency right now."

The Friday interview came hours after Bachmann sent a fundraising e-mail asking supporters to participate in a poll asking whether they are satisfied with the current field of Republican candidates.

"After taking the poll," she wrote, "I'm asking you to stand with me once more and to play a vital role in my next race as I consider my options of running for reelection to the House or seeking higher office."

The vague "higher office" language offered room for speculation, but speaking with Hotline on Call, Bachmann clarified that the Oval Office is the only one she's currently mulling. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) is rated a solid bet to win reelection next year by the Cook Political Report.

Bachmann says she won't make an announcement about her future political plans until June. But this week, her political action committee made several hires in states that hold key early presidential contests.

Two Republicans officially threw their hats into the ring this week and announced their full-fledged presidential campaigns. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will make his first Sunday show appearance since his announcement on NBC's "Meet the Press," while Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) goes head to head with Chris Wallace on "FOX News Sunday." Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) will also appear on "FOX News Sunday."

Also on FOX News, Senate Whips Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) will discuss what the Senate has in store for the debt ceiling debate. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will appear on CNN's "State of the Union" to talk about the battles brewing over the budget and House Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan will also appear on CNN to give his thoughts on the budget and growing deficit.

CBS' "Face the Nation" hosts House Speaker John Boehner for an exclusive interview while ABC's "This Week" sits down with South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R). ABC will also host two roundtable discussions, one focusing on foreign policy, the other focusing on the economy.

Other notables: Along with their interview with Boehner, CBS will air additional footage from their Thursday town hall with President Obama. And C-SPAN will air Gingrich's address to the Georgia Republican Party Convention in Macon, GA live. The speech will air tonight at 7:15pm EST.

Check out the full listings after the jump:

BUFFALO, N.Y. -- The newly-formed House Majority PAC will jump into the hotly-contested special election in New York's 26th District next week, according to a source familiar with the group's plans.

The Democratic group will begin airing broadcast and cable television ads in the Western New York district attacking Republican Jane Corwin for her support of Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) budget plan that would revamp Medicare.

The amount of the buy is not yet known, but it's the latest signal that Democrats see a definite chance for Kathy Hochul to capture the GOP-leaning seat in the May 24 special election between Hochul, Corwin and independent Jack Davis.

It's one of the first independent expenditures by House Majority PAC, the group that was formed earlier this year by a group of Democratic campaign veterans as a response to free-spending conservative groups, such as American Crossroads, that spent heavily during last year's midterm elections. The group has previously run radio ads against 10 GOP freshmen also hitting them over the Ryan budget and Medicare.

I'm here in Buffalo for the weekend, and while candidates today have been holding mostly private meetings or drop-ins, over the weekend all three are expected to hit the trail to hold rallies and meet with voter groups. Check back at Hotline On Call for the latest, but meanwhile, here are the key updates on the race: the Tea Party Express denounces Davis, Corwin could still put in even more of her own money, the NRCC puts more cash behind Corwin, and MoveOn dips a toe in.

-- The Tea Party Express will roll into New York's 26th District on Monday - but it won't be in support of the candidate who's on the ballot as the tea party line. In fact, they're coming to specifically oppose independent Jack Davis and support Republican nominee Jane Corwin.

In a release issued Friday, the group denounces the two-time Democratic nominee for the seat for "fraudulently calling himself a 'tea party' supporter" when he "opposes core tea party principles and is attempting to spoil the race for conservatives."

TPE is the latest independent conservative group to wade into the race opposing Davis, joining American Crossroads, FreedomWorks and the 60 Plus Association. TPE is still weighing how to get involved further, although their strategy is likely to involve both radio and online ads and robocalls.

Participants in rallies both in Rochester and Buffalo include TPE Chair Amy Kremer, former GOP gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino, TEA New York organizer Rus Thompson and Primary Challenge founder Leonard Roberto.

Here's one hint former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) will announce Saturday night he's not running for president: Declaring a presidential campaign on his own show could land he and News Corporation, Fox News' parent company, in legal hot water.

Using his show to declare he's seeking the GOP nomination for president could constitute an in-kind corporate contribution from News Corporation to Huckabee's candidacy, said Paul Ryan, an attorney for the Campaign Legal Center. Corporate contributions are illegal for both the company and candidate, he said.

"I think it would be wise for Mike Huckabee ... to refrain from doing it this way because it causes problems for both candidates and corporate owner," said Ryan.

Fox News made headlines earlier this year when it parted ways with contributors Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum because both men were close to becoming official presidential candidates. It retained Huckabee, whose show runs Saturday and Sunday night, and former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.

BUFFALO, N.Y. -- The dust-up over a Wednesday evening confrontation between independent Jack Davis and a tracker from Republican Jane Corwin's campaign has intensified, both locally and nationally, after it was revealed that the tracker was Michael Mallia, Corwin's chief of staff in the New York State Assembly.

In an interview with Hotline On Call nearby her campaign headquarters, Corwin said that revelation shouldn't change the fact that Davis was too aggressive when pursued by Mallia, and maintained that she hadn't heard about the incident until later on Thursday and wasn't aware that both the Erie County Republican Party and the National Republican Congressional Committee had circulated the video to the media. A second tracker was also taping the event, but Corwin says she hasn't seen that video.

"The only video I saw was the one that everybody else has seen," said Corwin. "I hear Mike's voice on the video and I see Jack come over and hit him. I think the video is self-explanatory. I don't think there's any confusion."

And even though Mallia is employed by her, he was still acting during his own free time, Corwin said, and it shouldn't be seen as a conflict.

Count Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Executive Director Guy Cecil among those who were surprised by Sen. Herb Kohl's (D-Wis.) decision to retire rather than run for re-election in 2012.

"We thought he was going to run," Cecil said in an interview with National Journal on Friday. Cecil said he knew about Kohl's decision before Friday, but he would not go into specifics about when he learned the news.

Under the leadership of current Chair Patty Murray, the DSCC has put in place a strategy of encouraging Senate incumbents to decide swiftly on re-election decisions. Before Kohl's announcement, five senators who caucus with the Democrats had announced they would retire rather than run for re-election in 2012. Murray said in April that she was confident there would be no further retirements.

"Our expectation is that he'll be the last retirement," said Cecil, of Kohl.

Cecil added that Democrats feel good about their chances in Wisconsin, saying the whole country has seen what Gov. Scott Walker (R) has done. "It's too early to talk about names," Cecil said, though he added in the next breath, "we're already talking to potential candidates."

Democrats are facing a tough Senate landscape, having to defend twenty-three seats in 2012. Lately, they have been on a recruiting roll, landing Rep. Shelley Berkley, former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine, and former Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez to run in Nevada, Virginia and Texas, respectively.

But Kohl's decision, which opens the door for Republicans to compete for his seat, reinforces just how fragile the Democrats' Senate majority is -- and how quickly momentum can shift toward Republicans, who only have to pick up four seats to win a majority in the upper chamber.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) will announce Saturday evening whether or not he's running for president in 2012, Hotline On Call has learned. The announcement will come on his Fox News show, "Huckabee," which airs at 8 p.m.

"Governor Huckabee will announce tomorrow night on his program whether or not he intends to explore a presidential bid. He has not told anyone at FOX News Channel his decision," said Woody Fraser, executive producer of "Huckabee."

A source told Hotline On Call that Huckabee will announce his decision live on the Fox News broadcast, while the rest of the program will be taped.

Sources close to Huckabee insist they don't know which way he's leaning on a presidential bid, but former campaign manager Ed Rollins hinted on Friday that Huckabee won't enter the race, telling the New York Times, "There was a tremendous opportunity for him to be a viable, credible candidate. I think Mike has got unique talents but he just didn't have the fire in the belly."

Huckabee first hinted at a major announcement during his Friday morning radio show, when he told listeners, "This weekend be sure to catch my Fox News television show. A very important announcement coming this Saturday."

The timing of Huckabee's announcement -- a Saturday night, after major newspapers have largely finalized their Sunday coverage -- is not reflective of a future candidate seeking to enjoy the instant media coverage afforded to a newly-declared campaign, and suggests that Huckabee will pass on a presidential bid.

West Virginia's special gubernatorial election has been a largely sleepy three-month sprint that turned nasty in the closing days. Both party primaries feature large fields. Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is favored in the Democratic race while on the Republican side former Secretary of State Betty Ireland is trying to fend off a push by businessman Bill Maloney.

The Democratic Race

Polling has been limited, but Tomblin, in his role as acting governor, boasts superior name recognition and has consistently held the lead and outraised his competitors. He racked up endorsements from the Charleston Gazette and Charleston Daily Mail, the state's two major newspapers; as well as groups ranging from the National Rifle Association to the West Virginia Coal Association and the state Chamber of Commerce.

State House Speaker Rick Thompson, Treasurer John Perdue, and Secretary of State Natalie Tennant have support in the double digits but all trail Tomblin. Though Tomblin is heavily favored to win, Thompson appears best-positioned to pull off an upset: he's been endorsed by numerous labor groups, and labor's get out the vote effort has been working on his behalf.

Thompson went up on television first. After focusing mainly on introducing himself to voters, he recently began aggressively attacking Tomblin. Perdue, who has based his campaign largely around the issue of freezing utility rates, was the first candidate to go negative, and has consistently attacked Tomblin. Tennant started the race with some name recognition due to her previous work as a news anchor, but with limited fundraising hasn't been able to capitalize on it. Acting Senate President Jeff Kessler has lacked the financial resources advertise heavily.

Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) announced Friday that he will not run for re-election in 2012, putting a battleground seat Democrats have held for over five decades squarely in play for the upcoming elections.

"I am announcing today that I will not seek another term as your senator," Kohl said at a press conference in Milwaukee. "Rather, I will continue to devote all my energy and time in the next nineteen months to see to it that the people in our state are well-served."

"I've always believed it's better to leave a job too early than a little too late, and that's how I feel today," he added.

Kohl is the sixth senator who caucuses with the Democrats to retire this year. Two Republican senators have announced their retirement. Kohl turned 76 years old in 2011 and has been serving in the Senate since 1989.

Wisconsin has been a national battleground, thanks to GOP Gov. Scott Walker's high-profile battle against labor unions and collective bargaining. Already both parties have geared up politically, in a recent high-profile state Supreme Court race, and are also preparing for recall attempts against several sitting state senators.

Several high-profile candidates have already been mentioned as possible targets for both parties. Republicans' top candidate would be House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, whose budget plan tackling entitlement spending has made him a national figure. And Democrats could turn to former Sen. Russ Feingold, who lost re-election in 2010, for a political comeback.

Newt Gingrich doesn't plan on giving President Obama his slogan back.

The former House speaker and the nation's chief executive have both laid claim to the phrase "winning the future," which the president unveiled at his State of the Union speech earlier this year. But the former congressman from Georgia, whose campaign website featured the slogan when it was unveiled Wednesday, pointed out that he had used it as the title of a book he wrote in 2005.

"I'm keeping it," Gingrich said. "The other team doesn't know it, but they're going to be campaigning on losing the future."

Gingrich was in Washington to address a group headed by conservative economist Arthur Laffer, whose famous "curve" predicted that tax revenues would decline as tax rates increased. It was his first public appearance since declaring his candidacy for president of the United States on Wednesday.

He used the venue to outline an economic agenda that emphasized de-regulating the federal government and lowering taxes. Gingrich also bemoaned liberal policies enacted under Obama and other Democratic politicians for decades that he said have crippled the economy. The city of Detroit, he said, is a perfect demonstration of the havoc Democratic policies can wreck.

"It doesn't take a tsunami, it doesn't take an earthquake, it doesn't take a flood," Gingrich said. "All it takes is two generations of really bad politicians."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Indiana's first lady delivers a much anticipated speech, the NY-26 ad war heats up, and Pawlenty looks to compete with Mitt Romney on the money front. Meanwhile, the former Massachusetts governor still has no apologies about his health care plan. Here's today's rundown:

9) Democrat Dan Adler, who is running in California's 36th District special election, has released a new ad featuring Asian-Americans, including a Korean woman who says "we minorities should stick together." Adler points out that he is Jewish in the ad and his wife is Korean.

8) It looks like Vice President Biden just has a thing for journalists. Biden was looking to hire CBS News White House correspondent Chip Reid and Slate political reporter John Dickerson before landing on Washington Post reporter Shailagh Murray as his communications director. His last communications director? Former TIME reporter, and current White House press secretary Jay Carney.

7) The results of a new Gallup poll out early today suggest that convincing Americans that the federal debt limit should be raised remains a tough haul for the Obama administration and congressional leaders. A near-majority, 47 percent, is opposed to raising the debt ceiling, while just 19 percent favor raising the ceiling. And there is little evidence that, as Americans tune into the issue this spring, support for raising the debt limit will rise: Among the 23 percent who tell Gallup they are following the issue "very closely," 62 percent are opposed to raising the debt ceiling, while only a quarter are in favor.

Jon Stewart thought rapper Common's performance at the White House poetry night was positive but people huffing "Fox-ygen" might have seen it a little differently.

Conan O'Brien, on Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, running for president: "He supports legalizing prostitution and heroin ... His campaign slogan is 'Let's just see what would happen.'"

Today's Must See Moment - Fast forward to 1:25, Common isn't the only artist to stir up controversy at a White House poetry night.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

BUFFALO, N.Y. -- Democrat Kathy Hochul pulled in the most money among the three candidates in the special election in New York's 26th District, netting over $218,000 in contributions according to pre-special election filings due to the Federal Election Commission by midnight Thursday.

But Hotline On Call has learned that Hochul has exceeded that monthly total in just the past week, and will announce Friday she's raised an additional $240,000 in the past week alone as the May 24 contest has drawn national attention.

Republican Jane Corwin reported the roughly the same, pulling in $202,000, in contributions, and also loaned her campaign an additional $960,000 through May 2, bringing her self-funding to $1.96 million. Corwin also had the most cash on hand of any candidate, with just over $613,000 in the bank heading into the campaign's final stretch. In the past month, her campaign spent over $1 million.

Hochul had $173,000 on hand, before her cash infusion in the last week, but for the first time she has dipped into her own pockets to help her campaign, putting in $250,000.

After spending the last several days with their fire trained on independent Jack Davis, Republicans are recognizing that Democrat Kathy Hochul is their bigger threat in the special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y.).

Republican Jane Corwin is up with a new ad connecting her Democratic challenger with former House Speaker and current Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi - a frequent boogeyman used by Republicans during the 2010 midterms. Pelosi's disapproval rating in the district was 67 percent, according to a Siena poll conducted in late April.

"Why do Kathy Hochul and Nancy Pelosi get along so well?" a narrator says, as the ad shows footage of Hochul praising Pelosi on MSNBC this week. "Maybe it's just mutual admiration. Kathy Hochul: just what you'd expect from Nancy Pelosi's candidate."

Meanwhile, Republicans are looking to turn the tables on Hochul, who has been blasting Corwin for supporting a GOP budget plan that would alter the entitlement system for seniors.

House Republican freshmen on Wednesday called for a truce on Medicare attacks in an effort to reach a bipartisan agreement to save the entitlement program from bankruptcy.

"This is a both-sides issue. To say that one side is blameless in trying to use issues to win votes is just dishonest," Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) said at Wednesday's press conference, our colleague Matt DoBias reported.

Less than 24 hours later, the campaign committee that helped elect a large number of those freshmen put out a new television spot using Medicare to attack a Democratic incumbent.

"Who do you trust with personal health care decisions? Your own doctor. But if Jerry McNerney gets his way, that could change," says the ad, which targets the three-term California Democrat.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) on Thursday refused to apologize for enacting a health care plan that critics say mirrors the one President Obama passed last year, defiantly arguing that his state-based approach was different than the president's and right legislation for Massachusetts.

"I also recognize, a lot of pundits are saying I should stand up and say this whole thing was a mistake," said the Republican presidential hopeful, speaking at a classroom at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Mich.

"But there's only one problem with that - it wouldn't be honest," said Romney, who championed the now-controversial plan when he was governor of Massachusetts. "I in fact did what I felt was right for the people of my state."

Romney's comments came in a highly anticipated speech meant to deflect criticism from some activists in his own party as he prepares to launch his presidential campaign. While defending the approach he took in Massachusetts, he took pains to distinguish it from the president's program, which he said nationalized a solution tailored for a single state.

Read the complete story on NationalJournal.com.

Updated at 3:03 p.m.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) has endorsed Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R) in the Florida Senate race.

"Mike Haridopolos has a tremendous record of conservative leadership in Florida," Huckabee says in a video announcement of the endorsement.

Haridopolos is running in what is shaping up to be one of the most competitive GOP Senate primaries this cycle. Former Sen. George LeMieux (R) and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner (R) are also running in the GOP primary for a chance to challenge Sen. Bill Nelson (D).

Haridopolos was an early supporter of Huckabee when he ran for president in 2008. The St. Petersburg Times notes another connection between the two pols: Haridopolos' close adviser, lobbyist Frank Tsamoutales, is HuckPac's finance chair.

In a GOP Senate race that already includes a former state treasurer, and will likely also feature a congressman, one man is trying to gauge whether there is room for a businessman to compete.

That man is Missouri Republican John Brunner, the chairman of a health care products company. He's strongly considering a Senate run, and has the ability to self-fund. If he runs, he would highlight his outsider's biography leavened with economic know-how. Republican strategists, both in Missouri and Washington, are increasingly excited about his candidacy.

"We've got a fire raging here in our country and our economy. It's going to take an additional level of character and competence to deal with the crisis," Brunner told the AP last month.

Brunner, a former Marine, runs Vi-Jon, a company founded by his grandparents that initially specialized in hydrogen peroxide. Brunner worked in various capacities for the company before buying the business from his father, becoming the third generation family member to head the company. Following struggles Vi-Jon suffered in the 1990s, Brunner helped right the ship, a story likely to be underscored in Brunner's campaign, if he makes a Senate bid.

"John tells a story that he learned in that process that you cannot spend and borrow your way to success and prosperity," said Missouri GOP strategist John Hancock, who has known Brunner for almost two decades.

While Brunner has not held office before, he's shown an interest in politics, Hancock says. Brunner has donated money in the past to Rep. Todd Akin (R), who is on the verge of announcing whether he will be entering the Senate race.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) will announce his candidacy for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination Friday on ABC's Good Morning America at 7 a.m., prior to a New Hampshire event that will kick off his campaign, a source close to Paul has confirmed.

Paul will make it official in Exeter, N.H. at 10 a.m on Friday, according to Jesse Benton, his political director, but before that "he will be announcing what the news of that speech will be," Benton told National Journal. "It'll technically be the first time that phrase crosses his lips [this cycle], and then our big official event will be at 10."

While Benton would only say that "he will have a major announcement" in the first-in-the-nation primary state, the news is a long time coming: If not for the debate in South Carolina last week, which required participants to have an established exploratory committee, Paul had hoped to skip the hoops and jump straight into a White House bid in mid-May, sources close to Paul say.

The location for his announcement is fitting. Benton recently told National Journal that New Hampshire would be "a priority" for the Paul campaign. In 2008, Paul came in fifth in the Granite State's Republican presidential primary. It was his second run for president; in 1988, he was the Libertarian Party nominee.

Still, Paul's outspokenness and libertarian views have made him a hero among hands-off government ideologues, and a proven fundraising marvel.

The National Republican Congressional Committee will jump into the television ad wars in the increasingly competitive special election in New York's 26th District starting Monday, a GOP strategist has confirmed to Hotline On Call.

Their initial buy includes $260,260 worth of broadcast advertising in the Rochester and Buffalo markets, as well as a $4,136 purchase on FOX cable in the district.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also has bought $250,000 worth of television time in the district yesterday.

The NRCC activated their independent expenditure arm in the district yesterday, authorizing them to begin spending money in the tightening race. That move came just a day after the conservative group American Crossroads reserved $650,000 worth of airtime, which it used to begin attacking independent candidate Jack Davis.

There was an empty chair at Thursday morning's first - and possibly only - debate in the special election in New York's 26th District, left open after independent candidate Jack Davis abruptly withdrew from the forum on Wednesday.

But that empty chair may have been better represented by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), whose budget proposal that would revamp Medicare was the overarching issue Republican Jane Corwin and Democrat Kathy Hochul sparred over for nearly 45 minutes in the debate hosted by WRGZ and the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle.

Both major party candidates stuck to the talking points they've been hammering home. But as this election, now just 12 days away, continues to draw national attention, and with outside groups and parties on both side pouring money into the race, their divisions on how to create jobs and protect small businesses, and especially over changes to Medicare that would affect citizens under 55, is becoming a bellwether ahead of the 2012 election.

Corwin began the debate by pointing to her family's own small businesses' success as a reason regulations on business owners in the area should be reduced.

"I'm afraid that high taxes and government spending and regulation on small businesses makes it impossible for others to have the same opportunity," said Corwin. "We need to cut taxes, reduce spending, and get government out of the way for small businesses."

While Hochul also talked of protecting small businesses, she brought up Medicare and the Ryan plan for the first time in her opening statement.

"Voters in this district have a clear choice," said Hochul. "I will fight to rescue and protect Medicare."

Later this month, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) holding a fundraising phone-a-thon with supporters in Las Vegas. Romney insiders told the Center for Public Integrity he hopes to raise between $2 million and $3 million.

He's far too modest.

The phone bank fundraiser is the same way Romney kicked off his 2008 campaign. That year, Romney aimed to raise $1 million during the day-long event in Boston. He sent what Washington Post writer Chris Cillizza called a "powerful message" by raising $6.5 million in contributions and pledges instead.

So, should we just multiply by six and expect a $12 million to $18 million haul?

Romney's team didn't want to comment on fundraising expectations.

At this early stage in the election cycle, political operatives in both parties believe that the Republican chances for winning back the Senate are relatively high, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Political operatives in both parties--but especially Republicans--are skeptical that Democrats will be able to regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2012 elections according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) readies a major address on health care and is already absorbing blows while Indiana First Lady Cheri Daniels gets set for a much-anticipated speech of her own. Plus, New York's 26th district special election may have come to blows ... literally. Here's today's rundown:

10) Former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) is trying to draw a contrast with her opponent in the Senate race, Rep. Chris Murphy (D) over ending the war in Afghanistan, using a quote from Murphy to argue that he favors a long-standing presence in the country. Murphy's camp pushed back by releasing a full transcript of the interview in question.

9) Former Massachusetts state Rep. Warren Tolman (D), who also ran unsuccessfully for governor and lieutenant governor, told the Boston Globe Wednesday "I've been encouraged to think about" a Senate run.

8) "Introduced two very important freedom bills today - one on industrial hemp and one on fresh milk" -- @RepRonPaul, in a tweet. More consequentially, Paul said he wouldn't have authorized the mission to kill bin Laden, saying instead he would worked with the Pakistani government to track down the al Qaeda leader.

The only way Jon Stewart can express his feelings on Fox News's coverage of the controversy surrounding the White House's inclusion of rapper Common in a poetry event is through rap, "You're pigeons, on a statue, leaving little puddles of lie behind you."

David Letterman, on Newt Gingrich announcing his run for president on Facebook and Twitter: "And I believe his concession speech will be on YouTube."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:05 for Stewart's rap to Fox News. Then let us know which rap lyric you think is the best.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

Newt Gingrich said Wednesday night during an interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity that he would feel like a "fraud" if he didn't run for president after a lifetime of preaching the importance of citizenship.

The former speaker of the House, speaking hours after making his official announcement on Twitter, said the country needs a conservative leader to defeat President Obama - which Gingrich said will not be an easy task -- and replace his liberal polices with pro-growth, pro-domestic energy ones that will usher in a decades-long economic boom.

"I think that we're going to have a very clear, very very vivid choice, and my job is to try to offer a genuine sense that with the right solutions, the right approaches, this country can take off again," said Gingrich.

Part of that choice would be detailed in a new Contract for America, the ex-congressman said, a pledge that would echo the one he helped inspire during the 1994 mid-term election that gave Republicans control of the House for the first time in 40 years. Gingrich said he would offer the new contract around Labor Day of next year. He indicated that it would include a sweeping agenda of executive orders that he would issue on his first day i office to gut Obama's policies.

The Fox interview, which lasted 30 minutes, was one step in what has become a week-long rollout of Gingrich's presidential campaign. He will speak publicly as a presidential for the first time Friday at the Georgia GOP convention. On Sunday, he'll appear on NBC's Meet the Press.

The former lawmaker, who left office in 1999, said he expects what is considered one of his candidacy's greatest weakness - his two previous marriages - will be a major issue through the campaign because the media won't let him forget it.

"If you are a conservative, you have to start with the assumption you're not going to get a break from elite media," he said.

He said the president has several factors in his favor heading into his reelection campaign - money, left-wing billionaires and Hollywood - but would lose in a "fair" fight.

"They're going to try to raise a billion dollars - for a very practical reason," said Gingrich. "He can't afford to run in a fair election. If he were on an equal playing field, he'd lose."

His most stinging criticism came not for the president but for Attorney General Eric Holder, a conservative punching bag whom Gingrich said has been "consistently wrong" since taking the nation's top law enforcement job. The former speaker called on the U.S. House to "investigate what his beliefs are."

The special election in New York's 26th District got a lot more interesting this week, with
outside groups spending big money to win the vacant seat. Republican Jane Corwin looked like the favorite to hold onto the GOP-leaning district, but polls have shown a tight three-way-race between Corwin, Democrat Kathy Hochul and Independent Jack Davis.

We'll keep you updated regularly on Hotline On Call with the latest news and analysis on the race.

5:45 p.m. Add FreedomWorks to the list of conservative groups coming out against Davis. The national tea-party aligned group, led by former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas) said their political action committee will begin a campaign "to educate voters" about Davis's Democratic past.

They'll begin "engaging a boots-on-the-ground, grassroots strategy that will leverage its membership base in the district in concert with allied tea party groups such as "TEANewYork" to spread the word concerning Davis' big government leanings and the danger of handing liberals a victory if conservative voters are divided," according to a statement the group released.

"Considering Jack Davis' leftist resume, his candidacy as a 'tea party' candidate is either a sad attempt to raise his own personal political profile or an underhanded strategy to hand the seat to the Democrat contender," FreedomWorks President Matt Kibbe said. "Either way, it's a slap in the face to New York 26 voters and the larger tea party movement and FreedomWorks PAC will ensure that this message is delivered throughout the district in advance of the May 24th special election."

A glance at the highs and lows of voting figures in Kentucky:

-- Secretary of State Elaine Walker announced record-setting voter registration figures Tuesday, revealing that Kentucky surpassed a record previously set in 2008. Over 2.9 million people are currently registered to vote in Kentucky.

-- But Walker predicted that only approximately 10 percent of the state's registered voters would participate in the upcoming primary election, which takes place next Tuesday, May 17.

In the gubernatorial race, Gov. Steve Beshear (D) does not have a Democratic opponent while state Senate President David Williams is the front-runner on the GOP side, and faces businessman Phil Moffett and Jefferson Co. Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) made his presidential campaign official Wednesday afternoon, but his new campaign website apparently needed a little more time to catch up to the news. At around 4:30 p.m., just after Gingrich tweeted his announcement, this is how a text box on his campaign website appeared:

(via @michaelpfalcone)

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R) made his presidential campaign official today, becoming the first presidential candidate ever to announce he was seeking the nation's highest office over Twitter.

"Today I am announcing my candidacy for President of the United States," he tweeted shortly before 4:30 p.m.

Gingrich also released a two-minute video announcement on YouTube.

"I'm announcing my candidacy for president the United States because I believe we can return America to hope, and opportunity, full employment, real security, to an American energy program to a balanced budget," Gingrich said in the video.

Gingrich's decision is not a surprise - his aides said Tuesday that he would make the announcement and his entry into the race has been seen as certain for months. Although the former congressman from Georgia, who left office in 1999, is the first candidate officially announce his candidacy on Twitter, he's not the first to use social networking in the still early 2012 GOP presidential primary.

The conservative icon faces a steep challenge to claim his party's nomination, convincing voters he remains a relevant politician 12 years after leaving office. He is ranked 5th in The Hotline's presidential power rankings.

With their endorsement of state Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) in the Nebraska Senate race, the Tea Party Express has officially positioned themselves behind a candidate for the first time this cycle. Nebraska is one of four states with Senate races -- along with Maine, Michigan and Indiana -- that the group has identified as its top targets. But what about other races?

In the Texas Senate race, two of the candidates, former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R) and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R) are battling for Tea Party support.

While the Tea Party Express has not made a decision to back anyone in the race, the group's chief strategist, Sal Russo, drew an early analogy in a conversation with Hotline On Call after Wednesday's press conference, saying Williams may be more like Nebraska Treasurer Don Stenberg (Bruning's main GOP challenger in Nebraska, who is also running as a conservative), whereas Cruz may be more like Bruning.

Russo said that Cruz appears to be "further down the road" than Williams in his campaign. Cruz outraised Williams during the first quarter and has drawn the endorsement of conservative Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah). Both men have been courting Tea Party support in the race.

Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R), who is more of an establishment Republican, is also strongly considering a bid, and would enter the race as the presumptive front-runner, should he decide to run.

The Tea Party Express endorsed Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) in his race against Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) on Wednesday, further solidifying his status as the Republican frontrunner.

But the endorsement wasn't warmly embraced by local Tea Party activists in the Cornhusker State. The group's decision, announced at a press conference in Washington, was met with some fierce backlash by party activists on the ground in Nebraska.

"They did not talk to any other candidates that we are aware or, they sure as heck didn't talk to any other Tea Parties in Nebraska," Jim Mason, Nebraska state coordinator for the Tea Party Patriots told Hotline On Call. "This was kind of an out of the clear blue type of announcement."

"Actually, I think this endorsement is going to hurt Bruning in a way," Mason said.

The Omaha-World Herald also reports that some Nebraska activists in the Tea Party movement felt either that the endorsement was coming too early or didn't involve enough input from local groups.

"It's a little early -- 12 months out of the primary," Patrick Bonnett, the founder of a coalition of about a dozen Tea Party-affiliated groups in Douglas County told the paper.

It's a marked shift from the Tea Party Express' strategy in 2010, when the group backed conservatives who ended up having trouble winning general elections. The Tea Party Express involved itself in several Senate primaries last year, backing the conservative Senate candidacies of Joe Miller in Alaska, Christine O'Donnell in Delaware, and Sharron Angle in Nevada last year. None ended up winning.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The Tea Party Express puts its weight behind Nebraska Attorney General who once praised Hillary Clinton while Democrats officially land their man in the Texas Senate race. Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) gets closer to a Senate campaign. And the gubernatorial primary races in West Virginia are getting personal. Here's today's rundown:

10) Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) told Missouri Republicans that he will announce a decision on whether he is running for the Senate against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) next Tuesday.

9) Case of bad timing: Sen. Richard Lugar's son, Dave, is starting his own lobbying firm - the Lugar Group. Lugar's son told Roll Call Lugar that he does not lobby his father's office, and he shies away from clients with interests before Sen. Lugar's committees: Agriculture and Foreign Relations.

8) The White House and Senate Democratic leaders have mounted a drive to discredit a Republican proposal receiving support from several Senate Democrats to cap federal spending.

7) Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) is set to formally announce his full-fledged presidential campaign Wednesday, and National Journal's Alex Roarty writes that his campaign hinges on whether he can convince Republican voters his career didn't peak 17 years ago.

Stephen Colbert is excited for a possible presidential announcement from Newt Gingrich, "I haven't been this excited since March when Newt made the pre-pre-announcement that he would be entering an 'exploratory phase.' Which I believe means he and his candidacy have agreed to an open marriage."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:15 when the Bush team gets back together to claim some credit for the Osama bin Laden raid.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) told the Missouri state House Republican Caucus Monday that he intends to publicly announce a decision on a challenge to Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) next Tuesday, according to two Republican sources who were at the caucus meeting.

Akin has been giving a Senate run close consideration and most Republican observers expect him to enter the race. On Monday, he said publicly "we'll anticipate some type of announcement before too long."

The revelation comes as the Republican field against McCaskill has been dwindling. Former congressional candidate Ed Martin, who was running in the race, decided this week to run for Akin's House seat instead --expecting the congressman would be running for the Senate. Former RNC co-chairman Ann Wagner, after mulling the Senate race, also announced she would be running for Akin's seat, citing her belief that Akin will vacate the seat to run for the Senate.

Former Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) is the only Republican currently in the Senate race. Also considering a bid is businessman John Brunner (R), who is the chairman of a health care products company and has the ability to self-fund a campaign.

Independent candidate Jack Davis is the sole focus of American Crossroads' first ad in New York's 26th District special election, underscoring the increasing concern among Republicans that his candidacy is pulling support away from the GOP nominee.

Republicans increasingly view Davis' candidacy as the reason for the tightening race, and the new ad zeroes in on him instead of Democrat Kathy Hochul, who has been running neck and neck with Republican Jane Corwin in a series of polls in the GOP-leaning Western New York district. Both Corwin and the New York State GOP have been hitting Davis, who is running as a Tea Party candidate. They are reminding voters that he was a two-time Democratic nominee for the same seat. Davis tried to get the Republican nomination after now-former Rep. Chris Lee had to resign after a Craigslist personal ad scandal, but lost out to Corwin.

Crossroads, with a significant $650,000 buy, echoes those same attacks against Davis, while also delving into his business past -- a strategy also aimed at chipping away at the business credentials Davis has been touting on the trail and in his own ads.

"It's spring, and millionaire career candidate Jack Davis is trying to buy another office," the group's ad says. "This time, Jack's pretending to be conservative, but he ran as a Democrat and supported massive tax increases." The ad also claims Davis' investments helped ship jobs overseas.

Previously updated at 6:34 p.m. on 5/4.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Monday said Republicans will insist on at least $2 trillion in cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Boehner also said Republicans want to assure spending reductions outpace the overall increase in the debt limit and will not accept new tax revenue as part of the package.

His hard line may be aimed at reassuring the GOP base and conservative members of his conference, but it won't make an agreement on raising the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling in the next few months any easier. Lawmakers will probably cut a deal and raise the debt limit, but they lack the votes in either chamber to do so without cuts.

For the Senate, National Journal has compiled a "whip list" detailing the stated position of lawmakers on a vote to significantly raise the debt limit without any cuts attached, or on a "clean" vote. The list is based on interviews, statements, other press reports and statements by Senate Republican leaders on the collective views of GOP conference members. Lawmakers' descriptions of circumstances in which they would back an increase are noted. At least 51 senators have signaled they oppose a clean vote to raise the $14.3 trillion statutory debt ceiling. That is enough to block it. Check out the full list after the jump and stay tuned to Hotline On Call for updates to the count.

-- "We've always said that Iowa doesn't necessarily pick the winner -- we winnow the field to about three candidates" -- Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) via Real Clear Politics.

-- "I do. I know him pretty well. I think he done a great job and he speaks English, which the American people like" -- House Speaker John Boehner on New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) via NBC's "Today."

-- "Marco Rubio, who's the Justin Bieber of the Republican Party ... Now the hot, young star, has said he wants to revisit waterboarding" -- Democratic strategist Paul Begala on Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) via CNN's "The Situation Room."

-- "I can see now why Ross Perot dropped out" -- businessman Donald Trump (R), reflecting on Perot, via "Fox & Friends."

Democratic organizations are finally jumping into the special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Chris Lee (R) in New York's 26th District, sources told Hotline On Call on Tuesday.

Just hours after American Crossroads said it would purchase $650,000 in advertising over the next two weeks on behalf of Republican candidate Jane Corwin, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee made plans to invest in the race as well. A Democratic operative with knowledge of the plan said the party is spending $250,000 on an advertisement in the district.

Meanwhile, another Democratic group, the House Majority PAC, is considering whether to get involved on its own. Ali Lapp, the veteran party strategist who runs House Majority PAC, said her group is taking a close look at investing in the race.

"Obviously, a $650,000 buy in upstate New York is not small," Lapp said of Crossroads' ad buy. "So clearly the Republicans are worried and they're playing hard." Lapp said a decision from her group would come in the next few days, with less than two weeks to go before voters head to the polls.

New York's two senators are coming to the aid of Democrat Kathy Hochul's surging campaign, and will each appear at events with her in the final two weekends of the special election race in New York's 26th District.

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) will campaign with Hochul on Sunday morning, May 15, in the Buffalo/Amherst area, according to a Democratic source. The two will also hold a press availability.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), who has already sent out a fundraising appeal on Hochul's behalf, confirmed Monday she would also travel to the district on Hochul's behalf, but that appearance now has a date. The two Democratic women will hold a rally on Saturday, May 21 -- during the final weekend before that Tuesday's vote.

According to filings Tuesday with the Federal Election Commission, Hochul's campaign is also getting new financial help from other members of Congress. Rep. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y) has given her campaign a $1,000 donation, while Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Recruitment Chair Allyson Schwartz's (D-Pa.) leadership PAC, We The People PAC, has also given her $1,000.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is energized by their candidate's strong performance so far in the New York's 26th District special election -- they're just not spending for her yet.

But with the House Speaker John Boehner and conservative group American Crossroads rushing to Assemblywoman Jane Corwin's aid, the DCCC blasted out a fundraising plea on Tuesday to its members on behalf of Democrat Kathy Hochul, touting the GOP attacks from Republicans and the latest polls that show the race is neck and neck.

"Speaker Boehner and his backers are scrambling to save the seat -- Karl Rove's swift-boat group just bought a huge slate of attack ads totaling hundreds-of-thousands of dollars, writes DCCC Executive Director Robbie Mook.

Mook goes on to say that they're aiming to raise $150,000 by midnight for "urgent rapid response resources."

House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said Tuesday he does not back a White House proposal to require federal contractors to disclose their political contributions.

"It's not a requirement now I don't think it ought to be a requirement. So I'm not in agreement with the administration on that issue," said Hoyer during a news conference. Hoyer represents Maryland's 5th District, which is suburban D.C., an area with many federal contractors.

The White House is proposing a plan to require federal contractors to more fully report their political spending -- and it has angered business leaders and Senate Republicans.

"Certainly, I am in agreement with the Democratic Whip," said House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), in response to Hoyer.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) will travel to Michigan on Thursday to deliver a landmark speech on health care reform, marking Romney's first major address dedicated to the issue viewed as his biggest vulnerability as a Republican presidential candidate.

Romney's presidential exploratory committee released a statement this morning saying Romney will visit Ann Arbor on Thursday afternoon to "present his plan to repeal and replace ObamaCare with reforms that lower costs and empower states to craft their own health care solutions."

The speech will take place inside the University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center, one sprawling section of the world-renowned University of Michigan Health System, which attracts top medical talent at the professional and collegiate level.

Speculation has swirled for months regarding whether or not Romney would deliver a significant policy speech addressing the politically sensitive subject of health care reform. Romney has been boxed in on the subject, since the plan he introduced in Massachusetts includes a mandate requiring people to buy health insurance - which is also the basis for GOP-backed lawsuits seeking to overturn President Obama's health care law.

Amid fresh concerns over the tightening special election in New York's 26th District, American Crossroads announced it has reserved $650,000 worth of television time on behalf of Republican Jane Corwin.

The ads will begin running Wednesday and last through the day of the special election, May 24. The group has already purchased $350,000 in ad time this week, and reserved an additional $300,000 for the following week.

American Crossroads is the first outside group to spend money in the upcoming special election.

The conservative advocacy group, which spent more than $70 million on independent expenditures in last year's midterms, had been weighing involving itself in the race, as Corwin has lost ground to Democrat Kathy Hochul and a third-party candidate running under the Tea Party label, Jack Davis.

"This race has become artificially competitive because liberal Democrat Jack Davis is now trying to pass himself off as a conservative while the other liberal Democrat, [Kathy] Hochul, is benefiting from his trick," said American Crossroads communications director Jonathan Collegio. "This ad buy seeks to expose the Democrat trick for what it is."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Things are heating up in an upstate New York bellwether, the Tea Party Express zeroes in on the Nebraska, and President Obama heads to Texas to discuss immigration and border security. Here's today's rundown:

7) Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) told Real Clear Politics he has "not ruled out the possibility, but I think it's probably still unlikely that I'm going to endorse" in the Iowa caucuses, noting that he wanted to be a "good host" to all of the contenders coming through the state.

6) Nevada Republican party Chair Mark Amodei entered the House race to replace now-Sen. Dean Heller (R) in Nevada's 2nd District. Meanwhile, a District Court judge has set a May 19 date to hear the lawsuit from the state GOP, which challenges the Secretary of State's ruling that the election be open to all candidates (on one ballot), as opposed to allowing the state central party committees to select their nominees.

Yet even Gov. Brian Sandoval's (R) official proclamation setting the Sept. 13 date suggests Secretary of State Ross Miller (D) has the legal weight of his office behind him, the Las Vegas Review-Journal notes. The proclamation issued Monday says the rules should conform to "all applicable federal and state laws as interpreted by the secretary of state."

5) CNN reports that Tea Party Express spokesperson Levi Russell said that the group's first Senate endorsement of the cycle will be against Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.)

The three Republicans in the race are Attorney General Jon Bruning , viewed as the presumptive GOP front-runner, Treasurer Don Stenberg, who has run unsuccessfully for the Senate several times in the past, and investment adviser and 2008 candidate Pat Flynn, another unsuccessful candidate who has been working to appeal to Tea Party voters. State Sen. Deb Fischer (R) could also run.

Five candidates participated in the first Republican presidential debate of 2012, but Jon Stewart is more interested in who didn't show up to the debate.

Conan O'Brien, on President Obama saying the raid on bin Laden's compound was the, "longest 40 minutes of his life": "With the possible exception of every time he asks Joe Biden, 'Hey, what's up?'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:45 for a Google Break.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

In the suddenly competitive special election to fill the seat of former Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y.), Democrat Kathy Hochul has gotten traction by portraying her GOP opponent as being tough on seniors. Now, she's doubling down on the attacks.

Hochul is up with a new ad blasting both Republican Jane Corwin and independent Jack Davis on Social Security, accusing the pair of supporting changes that would increase the retirement age for seniors.

"Jack Davis and Jane Corwin both would cut benefits for seniors while cutting taxes for the wealthy," the ad says. "Kathy Hochul says cut the deficit the right way - protect Social Security and Medicare, but no more tax breaks for multimillionaires."

Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) is running for the Senate in Indiana, but he said Monday he's not running against Sen. Richard Lugar (R).

Come again?

"I'm not here today to compare myself to Richard Lugar," Donnelly said Monday afternoon on a conference call with reporters. "I am not running against Richard Lugar. I am running for the opportunity to be a United States Senator."

What seems like an oxymoron in fact paints a clear picture of the Democratic approach to the Senate race.

A victory by Lugar's conservative challenger in the GOP primary -- Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) -- would increase the chances of victory for Donnelly, as Mourdock offers less appeal to voters in the middle than Lugar does.

Lugar, for all his flaws to the GOP base, has a record of winning in Indiana, not even facing major-party competition in 2006. He won 67 percent in 2000, 67 percent in 1994 and 68 percent in 1988. If he gets out of the primary, he'll be hard to beat in a general election, even if conservatives are dissatisfied.

Donnelly's praise of Lugar, intentional or unintentional, adds fuel to the conservative argument that Lugar's best friends are Democrats. His first vulnerability with the base came when then-Sen. Obama's presidential campaign used a depiction of him in an ad in 2008.

The results of a Washington Post poll released over the weekend suggest that ex-Sen. George Allen's (R) "macaca" comments and former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine's work as Democratic National Committee chairman are unlikely to resonate much with voters in the campaign.

Indeed, while those moments make for good cable news chatter, Virginia voters look favorably towards their past performances as statewide officials.

Fifty-three percent of Virginians regarded Allen's famed 2006 "macaca" comment as not at all important in their vote. Just over a quarter said they regarded the comments as somewhat important while 20 percent regarded them as very or extremely important.

And 55 percent of respondents said that Kaine's work for the DNC did not make much of a difference in his performance as governor, while only a combined 36 percent believed it either helped or hurt his performance. Kaine still receives high marks for his tenure as governor - 58 percent said they approved of his job, while 55 percent approved Allen's performance as senator.

Fresh off a weekend swing through South Carolina where he delivered a university commencement address and met with Gov. Nikki Haley (R), former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (R) heads further south to Florida for a two-day swing Tuesday and Wednesday, but he won't be meeting with Sunshine State Gov. Rick Scott (R).

With Scott taking a post-legislative session victory lap around the state, the respective schedules of Huntsman and Scott were not compatible. Huntsman's schedule includes Tampa, Coral Gables and Palm Beach.

It's worth noting that Scott and Huntsman share a connection: Scott's 2010 campaign manager Susie Wiles is currently a top Huntsman adviser.

Huntsman will be in Coral Gables Wednesday and he'll begin his day at the Biltmore Hotel. Gene Prescott, who runs the hotel, and Republican fundraisers Ana Navarro and Manny Kadre, both former allies of Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) 2008 presidential campaign, will be hosting a breakfast for him that morning with fence-sitting donors.

While Huntsman won't meet with Scott this week, he will connect with another big-name GOP governor: Chris Christie of New Jersey is on his Thursday schedule.

The Democratic field challenging Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass) got thicker on Monday, with Newton Mayor Setti Warren, an Iraq War veteran, formalizing his candidacy.

As Brown deals with hometown heat from his Osama bin Laden death photos gaffe last week, Warren becomes the second prominent Democrat to announce, joining City Year founder Alan Khazei as well as lesser-known party activist Bob Massie and immigration attorney Marisa DeFranco. The primary still lacks a high-wattage contender, prompting grumblings among some Democrats that Brown, who still polls well and has said he would raise $25 million, is too imposing an incumbent.

Warren, a former aide to Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), formally announced in a Monday web video, with a kickoff "service breakfast" scheduled for Tuesday morning.

"Many of you don't know me," a shirtsleeved Warren says at the start of the video, seated on the lawn of the house where he was raised. "I'm probably about as well-known as Scott Brown was at this point two years ago."

Warren doesn't shy away from going directly after Brown in the announcement video.

"I believe Scott Brown is an honorable man, but he has not been the independent voice in the Senate that so many expected him to be," Warren says, more than three minutes into the five-plus-minute announcement reel, hitting Brown on a string of votes and stances that Warren said aligned him with national Republicans.

Warren has dealt with some hometown pushback, as prominent Newtonians have argued against him trying to topple Brown while running the city. Warren, his announcement statement said on Monday, "will remain a strong, involved, and hands-on mayor throughout the Senate campaign."

One of Warren's expected strengths is his nearly yearlong tour in Iraq as a Navy intelligence specialist. Brown's long National Guard service helped him overpower heavily favored Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) last year, and last month Brown said he intended to undergo Guard training in Afghanistan this summer.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) on Wednesday will announce his candidacy for president of the United States using a vehicle familiar to observers of the nascent 2012 race -- social media.

Gingrich's spokesman Rick Tyler tweeted the news Monday that the former congressman from Georgia will first declare his candidacy on Facebook and Twitter, rather than more traditional venues like on television or at a rally. Although a novel development for the 2012 cycle, using social media to make a major announcement is hardly rare - former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) announced the creation of an exploratory committee for president on Facebook, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R) used YouTube.

Tyler said Fox News host Sean Hannity will have the first interview with Gingrich on Wednesday night, and the former lawmaker will make his first announcement speech Friday at the Georgia GOP convention.

Gingrich's decision to run for president is not a surprise. Although the conservative icon has flirted with running for president before, most recently in 2008, his intentions this time were universally seen as more serious. He told Hotline On Call at the recent White House Correspondents Association Dinner in Washington that he would be a candidate "by the 10th or 11th."

Missouri Republican Ed Martin (R) is exiting the Missouri Senate race to run for Congress in Missouri's not-yet-vacant 2nd District, he announced Monday morning.

Rep. Todd Akin (R) currently represents the St. Charles-based seat, and is giving a Senate run strong consideration. In late April, former Ambassador to Luxembourg Ann Wagner announced the formation of an exploratory committee for the a 2nd District run, citing her belief that Akin will likely vacate his seat to run for the Senate. Wagner, the state's former GOP chairwoman, also mounted a bid this year to be Republican National Committee chair.

In a radio interview Monday morning, Martin acknowledged that the path even in the House race likely won't be clear.

"I think there will be a primary," said Martin.

In the Senate race, Martin put up lackluster fundraising numbers during the first quarter, and his campaign didn't emerge as a notable force, even as Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) faced criticism over her use of a private plane for political travel and her failure to pay the necessary property taxes on the aircraft.

Tina Fey dusts off her Sarah Palin impression for SNL's "GOP 2012 Undeclared Candidates Debate." Fey as Palin: "It's just so great to be back on Fox News a network that both pays me and shows me the questions ahead of time."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:00 when Palin defends her foreign policy chops. Then let us know who you think did the best during the SNL debate in our Late Night Poll!

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) made his Senate bid official in a video that attacks Republicans for wanting to privatize Medicare and Social Security. Meanwhile, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) delivered his first address since stepping down as ambassador to China, while Tim Kaine and George Allen are running neck-and-neck in Virginia. Here's today's rundown:

9) Democrats landed a top flight challenger to run against freshman Rep. Chip Cravaack (R-Minn.) next year -- and one with a proven track record. Former state Sen. Tarryl Clark is launching another bid for Congress, but this time in Minnesota's 8th District, instead of the 6th District. One of the top Democratic recruits last year, Clark challenged Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) and raised over $5 million for the campaign, but lost by a double digit margin. But Cravaack's district is more Democratic - it's one of 13 GOP-held seats that voted for both President Obama and John Kerry.

8) Stay tuned: The Tea Party Express will make its first Senate endorsement for 2012 in a press conference on Wednesday morning, the group announced last Friday.

7) House Speaker John Boehner heads to New York today to campaign with and fundraise for Republican nominee Jane Corwin in the increasingly contentious 26th District special election. Boehner's fundraising visit had been scheduled long before the race tightened up, but national Republicans are becoming increasingly worried about this race that's now looking much more competitive.

Meanwhile, Corwin's opponents are trying to take advantage of Boehner's appearance with events of their own. Democrat Kathy Hochul, who has been campaigning against the GOP's proposed changes to entitlement programs, will stump with the National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare. Independent candidate Jack Davis is inviting voters to "have a hot dog at Zorba's Texas Hots" while Corwin is with Boehner. "Photo with a Zorba's Texas Hot is free; photo with Corwin and Boehner costs $2,500," Davis's release zinged.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- We received another reminder of just how close and hotly contested the Virginia Senate race is likely to be. A new Washington Post poll shows former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine and former Sen. George Allen (R) in a dead heat. And if the heavyweight matchup on its own is not reason enough to tune in, with a competitive presidential race likely in the offing for the commonwealth, and potentially control of the Senate also in the balance, the stakes are as high as they can get.

-- President Obama received a bounce in the polls following the killing of Osama bin Laden. But a highly charged political atmosphere -- in which both parties have an interest in squabbling with one another, and both supporters of the president and his detractors have such hardened opinions -- make a bigger bounce harder to come by.

-- Will the death of bin Laden mean increased debate over the war in Afghanistan? Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) this week doubled down on his efforts to press Obama for a clear endgame in Afghanistan. Lugar's primary opponent, Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R), has accused Lugar of being "Obama's favorite senator," and questioning Obama's strategy is one way for Lugar to distance himself from the president. For Lugar's camp, an uptick in foreign policy interest among Republican voters in Indiana could provide an opening and increased attention; still, polling shows Republicans generally support the war.

-- West Virginia acting-Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) has further established himself as the front-runner ahead of the the May 14 Democratic gubernatorial primary. He posted strong fundraising numbers, released an internal poll showing him up 19 points over his nearest competitor and is finding himself increasingly being criticized by opponents, as Treasurer John Perdue (D) has stepped up his attacks against Tomblin. The expected low turnout in this race (and who it helps/hurts the most) remains the biggest variable.

-- Over in the Republican race, businessman Bill Maloney (R) is selling himself as a conservative and a political outsider. But campaign finance records show that he has donated to Democratic candidates in the past. The Maloney camp responded by pointing to donations former Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R), the GOP race's front-runner, has made to Democrats. Still, the story is a reminder that images carefully cultivated by campaigns -- in this case Maloney's repeated pitch as an outsider and a conservative -- are fragile, and can be easily dinged by revelations from the past.

Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) intends to announce Monday that he is running against Sen. Richard Lugar (R), two Democratic sources with knowledge of the decision have confirmed. The news was first reported by the AP.

Following redistricting, Donnelly's South Bend district stands to be become more Republican -- a factor that was a notable part of his decision-making process as he considered his political future. What's more, Republican Jackie Walorski, who Donnelly narrowly defeated in 2010, will once again run for the 2nd District seat in 2012.

Donnelly's decision to run for the Senate is good news for his party. In a state with a thin Democratic bench, Donnelly is considered by party strategists to be the best candidate for the race, among those seriously considering a bid. He also didn't have too difficult of a choice, thanks to changes in the composition of his congressional district.

In the Republican primary, Lugar is facing a challenge from Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who is running to his right. Democratic strategists believe the prospect of a bloody GOP primary in Indiana and a potential Mourdock victory provides them with an opening in the race. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray identified Indiana as a prospective pickup opportunity at a briefing last month.

While a Mourdock victory would open the door for Democrats, who would likely have less of a shot against the more moderate Lugar, either scenario would present an uphill climb for the party. Republicans have enjoyed recent success in Indiana, and swept every statewide race in 2010.

The death of Osama Bin Laden will be the topic of discussion on all public affairs programs this Sunday. Questions still remain about how the actual mission played out, how this will affect the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and what impact the secret mission and subsequent details will have on the already strained relationship between the United States and Pakistan.

NBC, ABC, CNN, and FOX News will sit down with National Security Adviser Tom Donilon.

"Meet the Press" will also discuss the implications of bin Laden's death with former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and former CIA Director, Ret. Gen. Michael Hayden. CBS' "Face the Nation" talks with Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. "This Week"'s Christiane Amanpour speaks with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Pakistan's Ambassador to the U.S., Husain Haqqani.

Over on cable, "FOX News Sunday" sits down with Dick Cheney to get his thoughts on the death of bin Laden and what it means for the war on terror. CNN's "State of the Union" talks with Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) and NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

CNN will also discuss the current political landscape and how bin Laden's death will affect the 2012 presidential race with former White House communications director Anita Dunn and former Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.).

Get the full listings after the jump.

As the three-way, special election in New York's 26th District continues to tighten, independent candidate Jack Davis, who is running as a Tea Party candidate, has launched a new television ad targeting both his Democratic and Republican rivals.

In a 30-second ad that began airing this week, Davis rips into both his opponents, echoing the same messages they've used against each other in what's quickly becoming a circular firing squad of attacks. In what's been a theme in all of Davis's campaigns, he begins by criticizing both parties for backing trade agreements that "shipped jobs overseas" and "gave tax breaks to multinationals."

Davis, a two-time Democratic nominee for the seat who petitioned himself onto the May 24 ballot as a Tea Party candidate after losing the GOP nomination, has received more attention from Republicans this week after polls have showed a close race between himself, GOP nominee Jane Corwin and Democrat Kathy Hochul. Corwin went up with an ad Thursday reminding voters of Davis's past support for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and President Obama, and the New York Republican Party has sent out mailers with similar messages.

"Both spent trillions bailing out Wall Street and the banks," the narrator says in Davis's ad, as pictures of Corwin and Hochul come into focus. "Now, to make us pay for it all, Republican Jane Corwin wants to replace Medicare with vouchers and Democrat Kathy Hochul wants to raise taxes again."

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) has tapped Rob Johnson to manage his presidential campaign, Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler has confirmed to Hotline On Call. Johnson most recently ran Texas Gov. Rick Perry's (R) successful 2010 re-election effort. He's a well-known political operative in the Lone Star State and signed on with Gingrich as an adviser in March.

Tyler said earlier this week that Gingrich will be a candidate by May 13, the day he is scheduled to address Georgia Republicans at their state meeting. "I'll be in by the 10th or 11th," Gingrich told Hotline On Call Saturday.

iWatch News, which first reported that Johnson would manage the Gingrich campaign, also reports that close Gingrich adviser Joe Gaylord will stay on as CEO of the 527 committee Gingrich set up several years ago, American Solutions for Winning the Future.

Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer (R) reminds us that if you don't make it to the party, there is always the after-party ... even if that after-party involves only, well, you.

Roemer, who has formed a presidential exploratory committee, paid the $25,000 necessary to enter Thursday's debate in South Carolina, but could not enter the debate because he did not register the requisite one percent showing in recent polls.

No matter. Roemer has posted 22 videos on his YouTube page responding to questions from the debate.

"Good night, and welcome to the debate. I'm Buddy Roemer, and I'm not in the debate," Roemer says in his introductory video. "I wish I were."

Roemer had reportedly planned to post real-time responses to debate questions, but only after midnight Friday did responses begin to appear.

At least he got the last word.

Check out his introductory video below: